One of the most interesting updates today was a televised press conference Putin held with the top Russian frontline correspondents, many of them familiar names and faces from whom I and other analysts take daily reports.
They did sit down with Ukraine last March if memory serves right. Then Boris Johnson flew to Kiev to tell them not make a deal with the Russians, and that NATO has Kiev's back. Short version: it went downhill from there.
Also, Ukrainian officials have publicly stated they want Russian troops to leave all of the eastern territories and Crimea, before negotiatons can even begin. That's a big ask.
There's an envoy from China, Li Hui, who's been talking to all sides about negotiations. So far no luck.
This war, naturally, puts people on edge. Sometimes, you may want to take a break from war news. Enjoy the weather, talk about other topics. Then come back to it later.
Which might give us some insight into which territories they have an intention of occupying, either short-term or annexing. The ones getting "fertilized" with uranium may be the ones they never wanted or don't want anymore.
It's also possible they can use DU over the lands they do intend to take, if they are forced by the situation, but I think that's less likely seeing their overall caution.
See Putin's repeat of not being a terroristic state? Perhaps that is antithetical to any use of DU in their near abroad. One hopes it will prevent such munitions use ANYWHERE. Especially along the USA/Mexican border.
Russia, UK & USA all did crazy shit with above ground testing and troops + public exposure to fallout & nuclear processing pollution back then, before understanding just how bad an idea all that was. Hopefully, the same learning curve will end use of DU in projectiles soon too. Right about the time they get used on our own borders and shortly after, California children are all getting Iraq/ex Yugoslavia style cancers at once?
The Wagner group was organized and consists of GRU(Military Intelligence) and FSB officers specifically for deployment outside of Russia's borders. They are not "mercenaries" per se.
But now, after Donbass Republics joined Russia, they got the legal issues because, per Russian law, you can't have an independent armed force (that's not answering to Ministry of Defence) operating on the Russian soil.
As for Prigozhin, he's not the owner of WG, he's something like CEO, appointed by Putin. So if he'll even think to try and stir some shit like military coup, he'll be executed by his own deputies like Lotus faster that he can blink.
I fail to see the problem with WG. Think of them as a "special" part of the RF army, that receives orders directly from Putin because of the legal issues
There aren't 200k men in Wagner. Drop a zero and you're closer to the actual number. I very much doubt it exceeds 30k, and is now probably closer to 20k.
Don't forget that Wagner only grew large because of the big influx last fall of inmates on six month contracts. Those six months have long since gone by, and the vast majority of them did NOT continue to serve with Wagner afterwards. Add to that the losses incurred in Bakhmut and you're left with at most 30k men, and probably significantly less.
1. Wagner, as Prigozhin said, have lost 10k in Bakhmyt (+10k jailed). So you think they have lost 50% - 10/20k???
2. Main power of Wagner is still in Africa and other regions
3. Many people from army go to Wagner (cause of parquet generals and other aspects)
3. Main power of Wagner is the highest elite. 10 years ago (dont know about nowadays) it was almost unreal to join this group (u had to have incredible experience and skills). But now, as i guess, they recruit people with a less crazy track record, and they are the ones who die. But elite groups are becoming more and more immortal in terms of skills.
You're being disingenuous. I'm saying that Wagner has 20k to 30k men NOW. After the mass of convicts has left (several tens of thousands of them), and after the losses they incurred (whatever they really are).
You're also being disingenuous concerning Wagner's alleged losses, where you seem to be cherry-picking. Prigozhin also said that Wagner lost 12k men in total, IN THAT VERY SAME INTERVIEW! And he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign, again and again, that Ukrainian losses were 7 to 8 times Wagner's losses. He has also made statements at different points with regards to the average daily fatalities for Wagner.
If we look at the entire almost 300 day campaign, we need to take into account that the first half or so (approaching Bakhmut slowly, rather than fighting in it) was nowhere near as intense as the latter half. Even then, for most of the second half progress in the city itself was very slow and methodical. Only at the final stages did the intensity and pace change and losses mount.
So there's really three phases: 150 days or so approaching the city, 100 days or so of mostly slow, gradual city fighting, and maybe 50 or so days at the end of accelerated city fighting.
Based on Prighozins own statements, the average daily fatalities during the second stage were 30 men at most. Multiplied by 100 days gives you 3000.
The first stage saw far fewer KIA's, both because of less intense fighting and because Wagner was much smaller back then, and the average daily fatalities will have been around 15 at most. Multiplied by 150 gives you 2250.
The last 50 days or so saw much more intense fighting (IMO because they wanted to end the campaign before the bulk of the convicts had served their 6 months and were likely to leave), so let's say the average rose to 45 men lost per day. Multiply that by 50 and you get 2250 again.
So realistically speaking, Wagner lost around 3000 + 2250 + 2250 = 7500 men (fatalities). Personally I think that the daily averages were lower than that, and the total KIA for Wagner between 6000 and 7000.
Prigozhin, and others, including Lotus who actually commands Wagner, have repeatedly stated that Ukrainian losses are about seven times worse (or sometimes eight times worse). 7 x 7500 = 52500 Ukrainian fatalities. Almost exactly what many on the Russian side claim were the total KIA's for the Ukraine.
Only at the very end of the campaign did Prigozhin suddenly change his tune and started claiming much higher casualties than he ever did before, and in that interview where the 10k+10k you referred to come from, he repeatedly contradicted himself on this issue.
Don't forget, he pretty much turned into a psyop operation in the flesh, whose main task is to feed western and Ukrainian biases, not to tell you or me or anyone else the truth.
they are not mercs, really, they are like a special branch of Russian military. they hate the burocracy and idiotism involved with Russian military under Shoigu, so they find pleasing to be in a special branch, free of these things. Its like the extention of GRU, wich by the law, reports only to the President, not the DoD, or the minister. Wagner is basically reporting to Putin, and Prigozhin does nothing but executes his orders. ps: having lots of men with military and combat expirience in civilian life is and always was a bad scenario for any country, but theres nothing you can do. if the men are supported by the suciaty as defenders of the Fatherland, it goes smoothly.
In my opinion, Wagner is to a large degree modelled after the French Foreign Legion, at least in regards to how it fits into the overall picture (no, I'm not saying it's a copy, there are also differences). The FFL is a mercenary outfit. And like all mercenary outfits, it has an owner. That owner just happens to be a state, not some private individual(s).
The great advantage of the FFL, is that as a mercenary outfit, the French parliament has no say in how they are used, in fact, the government doesn't even have to inform them if or when or how or where the FFL is deployed. The same doesn't apply to the regular French armed forces. Conscripts can only be used abroad with prior parliamentary approval, while in the case of deploying volunteers (contract soldiers) abroad, the government must seek parliamentary approval as soon as feasible, and needs to be informed swiftly.
Russia has similar restrictions on how it can deploy its regular forces. Having its own mercenary outfit owned by the state, gives it far more leeway and options regarding the use of its military forces. It also fits very well with the notion of hybrid and unconventional warfare. Just look at how phenomenally effective Wagner has been in Africa in helping nations kick out neocolonial occupation forces.
If Wagner doesn't depend on the MoD, as you claim, then what State Agency do they get their funding from? I'm sure, Prigozhine isn't paying them out of his own pocket.
Alexander Mercouris from The Duran recently claimed that he was contacted by some guy from the upper echelon of WG via email and told him all that things i has written above. At least part of this info corroborates with what u can find in the net.
As for the real source of funding - how could i possibly know where all the $ are coming from? I'm not privy of Kremlin's bureaucratic tricks. It's definitely not MoD because now, when MoD declared that all volunteer batallions like Ahmad or Kaskad must sign contracts with them, Prigozhin gave them a finger instead.
As for Mercouris, i really don't remember when exactly he was telling about all that. U can try and watch his vids, there is a lot of usefull info anyway
I agree which is why Prigozhin specifically said last time that when he requested to raise his army to 200k he was denied, at least for now. But who knows if in future they may allow it particularly when the size of Russia's army is far larger. It's one thing to fear Prigozhin's 200k when Russia's own army is only 200k but if Russia's is 800-1M then 200k mercs may not be as threatening.
Is there any reliable information at all out there about the real size of Wagner, besides the hard to believe mutterings of Prigozhin?
Simply based on all the effort, cost, training, logistics, cadre, and time it takes to assemble a modern fighting force, I find it very hard to believe that Wagner (aside from convicts serving a six month tour, of which I seriously doubt are many left, if any at all) has more than 30k men in theatre, and probably less.
The only way that it could be significantly higher than that, would be if Wagner is just another part of the Russian armed forces after all, and only pretending to be a PMC, and pretending to be at odds with the MOD.
I agree about that number, or at least that was always my guess until I started hearing claims that Wagner had 50k. The other 'reliable info' depending on what you consider reliable were the Pentagon leaks. They gave the exact number of Russian forces in Bakhmut for instance.
Those claims of Wagner having 50k men IMO reflected their peak number, so right after the bulk of convicts were absorbed, but before they took serious losses during the fighting for Bakhmut proper.
Remove the convicts whose 6 months have long since passed, and the losses amongst Wagner's 'regulars', then add some recent new recruits, and you end up with a number that's likely between 20k and 30k.
I hadn't noticed that number of 22k from the Pentagon leaks, but it looks quite realistic to me, especially if you assume that the majority of heavy combat support and nearly all non-combat support for Wagner was supplied by regular forces. If those 22k was mostly tooth and little tail, it seems perfectly reasonable to me.
"“As of June 18, 2023, 32,000 people from among those previously convicted and who took part in the SVO on the territory of the LPR and DPR in the ranks of the Wagner PMC went home at the end of the contract,” said Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner PMC.
He noted that the fighters who were released committed 83 crimes, which is 0.25% of the total number of those who left. This is 80 times less than that of persons released from places of deprivation of liberty for the same period without concluding a contract with the Wagner PMC."
So 32.000 former convicts went home, as in, left Wagner completely. Dead men don't go home, so this is in addition to losses amongst them.
Given that the total Russian prison population prior to this was around 450.000, it would appear that inmates as a source of recruits has been pretty much tapped out.
Belgorod region is now getting more artillery attacks than Donbas, villages 10+ kilometers from UA border are now abandoned, with occasional incursions by various UAF supported para-military / terrorist squads.
Looks like even Russia has it's own troubles, but these are matters of degree. Though we've already been following this for a year, I think we ain't seen nothing yet.
At MoA, Russian commentator S provided some input related to what the meeting covered on the current week in review thread in which I made one reply, and another today:
" Putin's heard similar complaints before in his meetings with SMO participants, their spouses, children, and patriotic support organizations; I know because I've read the transcripts of their conversations. There were problems with the partial mobilization, too. IMO, what must be faced is the fact that Russia's Military and its MIC has never been tested in this manner ever; as a result, its inefficiencies and ineptness in certain quarters was unmasked along with the unfortunate nature of its bureaucratic culture--a disease that plagues all bureaucracies. Thankfully, Russia doesn't have the massive corruption problem that exists within the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals. Nor is the Russian government splintering from the inside as many European governments are, the former being quite credible in comparison. In almost every speech Putin gives, he mentions the need to increase efficiency across the board in every facet of Russia's socio-political-economy. There's no mention of it by the Kremlin, but I'll wager the national debt that Putin barked at more than a few people after his meeting and results will soon appear. Improving the bureaucratic culture will be difficult, but it can be done. That will be yet another facet of Russia to watch going forward."
Now to finish reading your posting.
I really have nothing more to add aside from telling your readers to read or listen to the entire meeting as Putin and the correspondents provide a weeks-worth of news. Oh, and do watch the SPIEF happenings. Putin will attend as usual; hopefully, the day will be announced at Zakharova's briefing tomorrow.
Edit 6/15 @1615 Pacific--
I should note that a citation of Putin's words is making the rounds that Pepe Escobar cited in his SCF article published today that's incorrect as it stands:
“We were forced to try to end the war that the West started in 2014 by force of arms. And Russia will end this war by force of arms, freeing the entire territory of the former Ukraine from the United States and Ukrainian Nazis. There are no other options. The Ukrainian army of the US and NATO will be defeated, no matter what new types of weapons it receives from the West. The more weapons there are, the fewer Ukrainians and what used to be Ukraine will remain. Direct intervention by NATO’s European armies will not change the outcome. But in this case, the fire of war will engulf the whole of Europe. It looks like the US is ready for that too.”
That's a collection of snippets pieced together to look like one entire statement. I combed the two different transcripts--my Yandex generated one and the Official Kremlin--four separate times and that paragraph doesn't exist. The bits, yes, somewhat like the Monroe Doctrine was initially snippets of a speech mashed together as a policy statement. Ultimately, it doesn't mar Escobar's article, but it does raise a credibility issue that I informed him about. When I first read it this morning, I thought it odd that I didn't recollect it although it all seemed correct--and it is but it isn't. It's an excellent example of what can happen when we rely on secondary or tertiary sources without vetting them. Here's the link to Pepe's article, https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/06/15/putin-and-what-really-matters-in-the-chessboard/
May I have your permission to publish your transcript on my Substack, with full credit given to you and your work? Here you can see how I use -- extensive -- quotes from Putin and some elements of the Russian law / doctrine:
Simplicus, I think you misunderstand what Putin said about number of recruits. It's not 150k plus another 156k. I think it'd 150k contract soldiers plus 6k volunteers for a total of 156k. If I'm right that changes the calculus quite significantly.
You may be right, I just did some digging to double check. Sources like this: https://ria.ru/20230519/armiya-1872971553.html stated ~117,400 of both 'contract *and* volunteer' had joined around May.
I think what tripped me up was the previous report which I also had pasted into the last Sitrep:
“In just ten days of the current month, 13,644 Russians 🇷🇺 signed up for contract Military service,” Deputy Defense Minister of Russia Nikolai Pankov said.
“This is 2.1 times more than in May this year and 3.1 times higher than in April.”
They also confirmed 117,400 people volunteered to join the Russian army ranks since January 2023."
This uses the language 'volunteers' but it actually means both combined.
However, even if that's the case, and the number now is 156k total of both, that does not change the calculus "quite significantly" as you state. Sure, the extra 150k I added is a huge number. However, even with that subtracted that should put them at 600k+ total rather than the 750k I had. This 600k total still wildly dwarfs what the AFU should currently have, so to me that should still be a very large disparity.
Plus, as per the above, it appears that each month the number of recruits is growing as they said "2x more than May and 3x more than April". This is in reference to the ~14k that joined this month. That would mean April and May had about 4k and 7k that joined, respectively.
If we extrapolate this out, and each month goes something like 4k, 7k, 14k, ~20k, etc. That could mean that by the end of 2023 there would be an additional 100k+ troops. Even if it stays at 14k per month joining, there are 6 months left so 14 x 6 = 85k. So that means by early next year, we could already be near that missing number anyway, i.e. the 150k that I wrongfully added. Let's say we add another few months of next year which also see 15-20k monthly recruitment. That means by next March or so, it can be an additional 150k which would put it right back to the 750k I had envisioned.
Of course, AFU is also recruiting in this time, but as I said the recruits they're getting are being attrited much faster so it's not certain their number is actually rising at all.
Last century, Russia has been infected with the Bolshevick virus and we know what these psychopaths have done to the Russian People.
We ask the Russian people to understand that the American people are under attack by the same virus. The only difference is the virus has mutated from economic Marxism to cultural Marxism or Wokism.
They are destroying all our institutions and now we have the Central Planning Bureau or Blakcrock implementing social scoring by controling capital allocations to corporations to coerce Board of Directores they have influence over to normalize sodomy and pedophilia.
Mr. Putin understands this and so do the American people who continue to wake up to this virus.
When it is all said, the Russian and American people have no reason to dislike each other at all.
Both our peoples face the same enemy. America faces it from within and Russia, being a healthier society at this time, faces it from without.
So if the Bolsheviks took over, then obviously the USA has free education, free medical care, subsidized housing as a right. Please let me know when that happened.
The US is far and away the least generous country in the West when it comes to free shit for the common man, but sure it's run by bolsheviks. Free shit for the elite is just par for the course in any capitalist oligarchy.
This. The place is running just like it was supposed to run. An oligarchy. I mean Washington was a shady real estate speculator far more so than trump. Washington even scammed French and Indian war veterans to get rich.
Rather than quibble about how historical terms and examples apply to the situation currently unfolding perhaps examining the mechanisms would be more productive.
If by universal you mean planetary then sure go ahead. Since they do not appear to be agreed upon HERE, then that's a lost cause. What I meant was that examining the mechanics and dynamics of "how" is often a more effective route to finding solutions. Examples abound.
Bro, the 1930s called, they want their political categories back. You, on the other hand, need to realize it's not the 1930s and all your categories are completely obsolete. The "bolsheviks" in America are now 100% allied with Global MegaCorp and they both push the same agendas. The "Left" is 100% aligned with the Deep State, the military, the intelligence agencies: all the stuff they used to protest against, but now they occupy the heights of ALL those institutions. And they are virulently hostile to the working class, in particular the white working class, who they are absolutely destroying. All in the name of "equity" and "justice," of course.
This has become super confusing. "Bolshevism" no longer signifies "Marxism and the rejection of capitalism". It means alignment with the deep state, the MIC, and big finance. What is one supposed to call people who actually still believe in Marxism and the rejection of capitalism ? Are they still called Bolsheviks ? That seems to present obvious difficulties in clear communication.
That's certainly part of it but it's a far more generalized problem than that. When someone is just using a word as an insult it's usually pretty obvious and one doesn't expect perfect accuracy in its usage. I might call a cop I didn't like a fascist in the heat of the moment but I'm not then going to create my own new definition of fascism that includes cops, Karens, and pentecostal preachers - all things I don't like. Outside of heated arguments words have to mean something or all discussion becomes pointless.
Make a word up. If you are honest, you'd admit borrowing a word because in your narrow circles it has bad meaning. Sort of like Trump / Trumper has in other narrow circles.
I generally agree. We insist on recycling 20th-century political taxonomy in our new age of woke. I think we should come up with new categories and new names.
But for now the old ones can still be useful. I’d stipulate that the ‘progressivism’ so fashionable in the US Uniparty looks a lot more like 1920s-30s Eurofascism than Russian bolshevism.
Note the dominant role played by woke private corporations. Especially in the finance, defense and pharmaceutical sectors, it often appears corporate oligarchs are calling the shots, not the bureaucrats whom they’ve ‘captured’ ... much less questionably elected woke officials or their cabinet appointees. At the very least, the oligarchs seem generally to have coequal clout with government officials.
This relationship much more closely resembles Eurofascism or ‘national socialism’ of the 1920s-30s than it does bolshevism, under which major industries were directly state-run.
The waters are further muddied by western ‘libertarians,’ who regard bolshevism and fascism both as movements of the left, because they’re collectivist in essence, although fascism allowed corporations to remain privately owned and run.
If I’m right about corporate dominance of US government, that’s a key difference between today and both fascism and especially bolshevism 100 years ago: Mussolini and Hitler were most definitely calling the shots, not the captains of industry who operated under state supervision.
The irony is that Trump and MAGA represent the real American worker's party now (not the GOPe, who are corporate shills). That's one reason the power structure went after Trump -- he sided with Main St. over Wall St. You'd think the old labor socialists would have flocked to his banner, but alas they bought into all the fairy tales about Trump being a "racist" or whatever other meaningless slander got tossed his way.
Trump is an opportunist. He appeals to labor sentiments because there are the votes. But this is just talk. When you look at his actual policies he gives them only crumbs. Most of his policies serve two other constituencies: his sponsors (who are mostly rich) and the national bureaucracy.
"The "Left" is 100% aligned with the Deep State, the military, the intelligence agencies: all the stuff they used to protest against, but now they occupy the heights of ALL those institutions"
You are engaging in conspiracy theory and blame shifting away from right wing capitalism, and putting the blame on fictional bogey men Marxists.
It's the same European Communists that are taken the World down and the US populace is in their way. We have the guns. You must understand the mechanism and how communism destroyed Russia. It is the same mechanism it uses to destroy the US and the West, however the medium is not economic it is cultural.
You might find this essay interesting if you have some time.... yeah US is done. Just a matter of time. If you're an American it's depressing to be sure but may help with life planning.
“Complex Systems Won’t Survive the Competence Crisis”
Great article. Equity has been the biggest ally of corruption in my country, destroying our rail system, roads, army, police and electricity supply. One broken rail line alone carried R60bn to the harbour in my city. South Africa has loadshedding almost daily, in some areas up to 12 hours. I had no water yesterday morning and night, and this morning, with only a trickle yesterday afternoon. An optimist might say that at least I'm not suffering like southern Johannesburg which has had no water for a week, but I'm feeling damn pessimistic because equity continues to 'protect' 90% of the population 30 years after we got democracy. Yeah, to outsiders who don't know, Government's equity policies are against the minority. This system of bias obviously doesn't work because half the country is now unemployed. We're a warning to the world how bad it can get.
And yet two years after apartheid ended the vast majority of blacks said their lives had gotten worse not better because racists that could run an economy were replaced with racists that couldn't. All racists are equal but some racists are more equalthan others.
It is unreasonable to expect a people that have been colonized for a century or more, to be able to self-rule again straight off the bat. Not only their lands were colonized, more damaging was that their minds were colonized too. Hence, self-hating behavior.
This decolonization process will take time as it has never been done before on this scale.
Add to that IMF debt and US bullying behind the scene, and you have yourself cornered against a wall whilst learning how to walk again.
Why do you think Russia and China are ahead of the game? They were never colonized in their entirety.
Lol! Yeah, during the rule of those "racist scum" South Africa was a virtual paradise, and blacks were streaming INTO the country by the many thousands every year. Just like now they stream into "racist" Western nations, for some mysterious reason. It's amazing how these crackpot notions of colonialism still persist among the ancient Marxists.
Well, we had something like that in 90's in Russia, but with Putin's help we put an end to this and slowly rebuilding ever since. Maybe you should consider hiring him as a consultant since we are in the BRICS already? :) Or you can try and elect Leo Prinsloo :)
On a serious note: With US losing its power I hope that things are finally starting to get better for everyone not in their lackey's list
Looool, wut, you dont wanna reminisce and lament over the "holy 90s"? Totally unhandshakesble, bruh. Next thing you gon say that Navalny isn't the hero we deserve /s
Nah I don't wanna imagine it either. For me the Yeltsin era was like a vaccine against US-borne "democracy". Once you see it, once you live through it, you don't want that shit to repeat.
not yeltsenits, the jews. the semibankirschina was an oligarchate, when all the 7 were jews. all the media were infested with degeneracy, owned by them, all the resources sucked dry for them to profit, etc etc.
I found this essay interesting as I'd not spent enough tracking these "Koch suckers" fake libertarian bullshit spreading while tracking the forever wars it has backed and proffited from.
That essay blames every problem in USA on "diversity". While there are one hell of a lot of issues resulting from oligarchy, regulatory capture, MIC pork and profiteering, destruction of social institutions and (most critically!) public education due to every major corporation in USA and most of the rentier classes shedding most of their income tax burden on to the "little people", resulting education & orher critical to human asset development budgets being slashed.
Blame is NOT on "diversity", per se, but on the rejection of meritocracy in favor of other elements, some of which you cite, with "diversity" being only one. Also, you should not fall into the trap of believing that the size of budgets is what determines the success or failure of any particular program. A small education budget, spent intelligently with proper prioritization, is of far greater value to society than a huge budget spent primarily on bloated bureaucracy, ideological indoctrination, and non-academic fluff.
Debt slavery through Jewish Banking Mafia and Zionist satellite useful idiots and compromised politicians. We are dealing with a parasite that has been kicked out of countries 119 times throughout history.
You are right. Jews have been thrown out of host countries 109 times for bad behavoir. But next the local empowerment movement might jump that to 150 quickly.
If it’s not economic Marxism then it’s not Marxism. Such a thing does not exist. It’s just been invented to keep misinformed people like you distracted and ultimately supportive of the status quo (while criticising it). It’s genius propaganda.
Marx was a theologian but was famous for his book Capital. He posited that man was flaws and incomplete. He wished to revolutionize man's social outlook.
I sorry I don't have the time to convince of this, but you can research it yourself.
He wished for labor to control the means of production. Nothing more. Obviously you need to read Marx as you don't know what you are talking about. If it isn't economic, it isn't Marx.
That isn't to say Marxist economic ideas where correct, but that is a different argument. There is no such thing as "social Marxism". The use of the term is just another fascist propaganda tool. That is what USA has, corporate fascism and all the crazy social issues spin off of that.
Here is another point of view to yours. Obviously, you need not be so proud of your incomplete perspective on everything. No one has a complete perspective.
Just read something by Marx directly and give YouTube a rest. YouTube is just another propaganda tool, a book by Marx is…a book by Marx. You’re just consuming ideas that serve an agenda.
I’m not saying you have to agree with Marx but at this moment all I know is that you disagree with someone’s misrepresentation of Marx. You see, capitalist propaganda mostly misrepresents Marx because it’d be quite tricky for capitalists to engage with actual Marxist ideas.
They do to Marx’s thought what they’re doing to the flesh and blood Russian army: ignore it and fight a parallel propaganda war in Lala land, where the Russians are the opposite of what they really are. Capitalism is all façade and illusion because we are not allowed to know the real workings at its heart. Which is, incidentally, what Marx has scientifically uncovered. Nothing to do with “cultural” this it the other.
But you have perfect right to know and support the doings of capitalism, from a position of knowledge.
You are correct, and it is highly unfortunate. In the USA there really is no hope. Both "sides" are full of dunces. Implosion is best for the world, but it will be ugly.
Didn't the N@zis coin the term of cultural Bolshevism to denigrate modern art, which they considered degenerate? I think Russia is on the right side of history in this conflict; however, I don't think Putin is doing himself a favor if he resorts to ideological terms of this type.
I think Putin is a genuine conservative. It's just that some in the conservative camp try to underpin their position by constructing an anti-woke ideology.
No he is trying to signal to a group and appeal to them.
Also there is no such thing as woke, the term is a euphemism. Right wingers either have false consciousness, or they are too scared to call out intersectional feminism.
Also Russia is just as feminist as the west in their own way. Mainstream Russian society allows a teenage girl to hang around as 10 year old boy who they claim they got pregnant off from and have sleep overs, then parade the 10 year old boy around on tv and say. "Ah... how cute is that couple" Girl in question admitted she lied and changed her story, and got a 15 year old boy she slept with charged with rape.
The term woke is vague and meaningless. There is no such thing as woke, so there can't be such thing as anti woke.
Let's not split hairs. Even if the term woke is vague, you know what I mean. The whole idea of wokeness is vague in itself.
What I'm saying is that, in its crusade to spread liberal values and neoliberal market principles, the West propagates a certain anti-conservative ideology which requires other people to adhere to the West's values if they don't want to be the target of Western sanctions or bombs.
Many people in the global South are inherently conservative and feel uncomfortable with the West's values. For example, Muslim leaders feel uncomfortable about transgender US generals, topless dancing at the White House, or Baerbock's "feminist foreign policy." That's where the Russians see their opportunity to gain influence by offering a conservative view. Muslim leaders who felt uncomfortable with the atheism of the Soviet Union supported the US's attempts to overthrow communist regimes, for example in Afghanistan. Today, these same countries feel more comfortable with Russian conservatism than with Western liberalism.
That is a promising approach and I can understand why the Russians are doing it. What I'm objecting to is that some inside or outside Russia try to make an ideology of it. Any such attempt is bound to be counter-productive.
I'm not American and I look at the issue from a geopolitical point of view. I'm not interested in domestic US issues.
The right in the USA have done more to destroy the family unit than any other group, then they claim they are pro family and go after gay people and blame them for the decline of family.
Men can be pushed away from their kids, not allowed to see them, forced to pay child support. thus mothers are incentivised to push fathers away. (Most relationship break ups are by women. ) It is a fact that single mothers are so bad at raising kids, that they are a legitimate danger to them.
Fatherlessness was a lot rarer before the government incentivised mothers to kick fathers away, then the right wing blame fathers for not being responsible, and call them dead beat dads, and then pass even harsher child support laws, thus incentivising even more family break up.
My point is, this "anti woke" nonsense is blame shifting by the right, for problems they caused themselves. The right is just as anti feminist as any radical feminist man hater, but at least feminist man haters do not put on a front of being pro family.
the people of russia and in fact the entire post-soviet world don’t see the soviet period as a tragedy, they see its destruction as a tragedy. the americans could only subvert and ‘nazify’ ukraine after the union fell. during soviet times those two peoples, russians and ukrainians, were brother-nations, two parts of the common soviet people, what was once a new historical community. the union destruction paved the way towards the american-led bloodletting of brother against brother in ukraine.
Have you forgotten the slaughter of millions (estimates of 26 million and more) of White Russians (No reference to skin color) by the Bolshevicks? 26 million is much more than 6 million.
that’s simply impossible, come on now. that’d make stalin the only leader in the world who somehow managed to kill 26 million people (without including the 20 million dead due to the war) whilst increasing the soviet population from approximately 150-160 million in the late 30s to 200 million in the late 50s...
besides, if those numbers even were true, stalin wouldn’t be respected by any group within modern russian society. instead, even nationalists and non-traitorous liberals hold him in high respect, even if begrudgingly.
The Whites fought a civil war for control of the Russian Empire. Why are the casualties exclusively the Reds fault ? Is this a general principle ? Who was 100% responsible for all the casualties in the American Civil War ? Was it the Yankees or the Confederates ? The English Civil War ? Cavaliers or Roundheads ?
There is no such thing as cultural Marxism, or Wokism. Cultural Marxism is a conspiracy theory, and wokism is just a euphemistic term used for feminism.
Americas behaviour is innate to capitalism, and imperialism, scapegoating it on "Marxists somehow taking over the USA" is just deflection.
This old blog post is a decent debunk of the cultural Marxism conspiracy theory. IT makes no sense. Also the term Cultural Marxism is a far right dog whistle, and comes from the old nazi term cultural bolshevism.
Feminism/wokism is an aspect of capitalism, so called cultural decay is a product of capitalism, not communism.
The USA was an imperialist country long before the fall of the Soviet Union, and its behaviour is not much different to the past, so the idea that "This is due to a secret group of Marxists " najes zero sense, and it is scapegoating.
Perhaps he means that Russia can supply DU to proxy too? Then the question is what proxy would be willing to allow such a poison to be used? Syria seems unlikely.
Could be Sudan. The RSF vs. AOS fight has fallen off the radar in the west, but it sure as hell is still going hot and heavy. In fact, RSF just captured a strategic airport this week.
There are also a few other places ripe for kicking the Empire in the nuts, like Niger.
No, Putin is not going to piss off his African contacts by using their continent as a waste dump. That's what the EU and USA already do with electronics waste.
Or responsive DU is just a threat to make the USA hesitate. However, Putin is fluid. He speaks with ambiguity so that his words can adapt to changing situation.
I'm pretty sure that the USA would change its tune on the safety of harmless DU if some of it landed in Martha's Vineyard. Although it would technically be a war crime, I imagine most Americans would be willing to look the other way.
I don't mind seeing real Nazis burn, but the problem is who determines what/who is a "real Nazi". They tried it at Nuremburg and made a huge mess of it.
I guess what I want to say is, gee, how sad that folks get that silly ideology about superiority, and no where more so than the Arrogant West, which I believe has basically imported that sick fascismo and made it our own, Gavin, Nazi pelosie, those who protect bidendiaper.
To impeach is patriotic...
And those who just succumbed to the false flag of superiority but can be cured of that, if possible, then may that cure be forthcoming.
Well, maybe he had in mind possible Baltic states intervention - in this case DU will be distributed among troops in Belorussia to be used in their (Baltic states) territory
Every time a terrorist action happens by Ukraine against Russian civilians or Russian infrastructure, it becomes increasingly difficult for Russian politicians to sell the concept of reconciliation, or peace, or anything other than a total surrender of Ukraine to Russian citizens.
"... if the surviving rump state of the Ukraine cannot be remolded into a nation which respects Russia and treats Russia cordially, then Ukraine “should not exist” at all as a state. ..."
So if Russian politicians can no longer sell anything except a total surrender of Ukraine, it makes sense for Russian Generals to follow the wishes of civilian leaders. The least risky military strategy is to create more meat grinders and slowly but systematically annihilate as many Ukrainian citizens as possible.
Without young citizens (40 and younger) Ukraine cannot wage a longer-term terrorism operation.
Which is why it is entirely plausible that the US and UK (as well as others) are engineering those attacks so as to prolong the killing. After all, who really benefits from millions of dead Slavs...
1. Putin 2007: "I believe the U.S. already understands and will understand more and more that only a strong Russia will respond to the genuine interests of the United States." That has possibly altered, in respect to Ukraine, into deAmericanisation, though deNATOism would apply too.
2. It is logical that you wait until the enemy's forces are depleted so that you can overrun or chase them. There is a surge after victory.
3. The biggest factor in the war may not be the number of troops or hawks, but the internal politics of the USA. The general Public don't give a damn about Ukraine with the Biden and Trump scandals taking centre stage. Trump's "end war" argument is softer than the shit he's in so it may come down to how much Biden will need Ukraine as distraction from his son's. Almost all presidents want to come out of the closet as Margaret Thatcher.
Thank you Simplicius for summarizing Putin's salient points to the so called voenkors.
This NATO infrastructure/logistics build up doesn't bode well for peace. Appears these neocons are locked in on WW3. I suppose the only thing that will roll back NATO is the real war, the economic one taking place on world stage.
Given the de-dollarization and it's crux related to hegemonic control, I think for them there is only "victory or death". This does not bode well for the general well being.
“Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury”.
Putin was speaking about the Dnepr as it stood when it was carrying large masses of water immediately after the dam was blown up. Right now, it's a very different story. The amount of water flowing down the Dnepr has become a trickle. Ukrainians will soon attempt to strike across the river.
That depends on how long the AFU wait to cross Kakhvoka Reservoir, as Kherson actually has a pretty hot and arid climate, with the only desert in Europe, Oleshky Sands, being pretty close to the Dnieper River. If the AFU waits until mid-July to strike, the former reservoir would actually be very suitable for an attack on ZNPP with amphibious vehicles like BMP-2s and BTR-70/80s.
It will take a long time to dry. In addition, a crust forms over the silt when drying, under which the same dirt is still. The Kherson region is not a Sahara desert.
Concerning the second mobilization in August. How many troops do you think Russia would need to occupy all of Ukraine? I've seen from 50-100 occupied civilians per occupying soldier to 20-200 civilians per soldier. Depending on how how hostile the natives are.
Also, I suspect that you are right about Russia holding back reserves incase NATO intervenes. I simply can't imagine the neocons in DC accepting a Russian victory when they have any cards left to play.
I can hardly imagine Russia occupying all of the Ukraine. Russians already had a huge problems with Nazi supporters there after WWII. As far as i remember it took about 5 years, give or take, to catch/kill all this assholes, and that was without active Western support. I think Russians will destroy the army, turn to trash everything military - related, replace the government and leave new government to deal with all this mess.
They did sit down with Ukraine last March if memory serves right. Then Boris Johnson flew to Kiev to tell them not make a deal with the Russians, and that NATO has Kiev's back. Short version: it went downhill from there.
March last year I mean. 2022.
Also, Ukrainian officials have publicly stated they want Russian troops to leave all of the eastern territories and Crimea, before negotiatons can even begin. That's a big ask.
There's an envoy from China, Li Hui, who's been talking to all sides about negotiations. So far no luck.
This war, naturally, puts people on edge. Sometimes, you may want to take a break from war news. Enjoy the weather, talk about other topics. Then come back to it later.
Enjoy!
clever? denied,
cunning, duplicitous, Mi5/6 troll, pure plant aye.
certainly, these fuckwits are paid and placed. and the idiots just go along....
Which might give us some insight into which territories they have an intention of occupying, either short-term or annexing. The ones getting "fertilized" with uranium may be the ones they never wanted or don't want anymore.
It's also possible they can use DU over the lands they do intend to take, if they are forced by the situation, but I think that's less likely seeing their overall caution.
@ Ernesto Che
See Putin's repeat of not being a terroristic state? Perhaps that is antithetical to any use of DU in their near abroad. One hopes it will prevent such munitions use ANYWHERE. Especially along the USA/Mexican border.
Russia, UK & USA all did crazy shit with above ground testing and troops + public exposure to fallout & nuclear processing pollution back then, before understanding just how bad an idea all that was. Hopefully, the same learning curve will end use of DU in projectiles soon too. Right about the time they get used on our own borders and shortly after, California children are all getting Iraq/ex Yugoslavia style cancers at once?
That's one way of "buiding the Wall". Pepper the border with DU.
The Wagner group was organized and consists of GRU(Military Intelligence) and FSB officers specifically for deployment outside of Russia's borders. They are not "mercenaries" per se.
But now, after Donbass Republics joined Russia, they got the legal issues because, per Russian law, you can't have an independent armed force (that's not answering to Ministry of Defence) operating on the Russian soil.
As for Prigozhin, he's not the owner of WG, he's something like CEO, appointed by Putin. So if he'll even think to try and stir some shit like military coup, he'll be executed by his own deputies like Lotus faster that he can blink.
I fail to see the problem with WG. Think of them as a "special" part of the RF army, that receives orders directly from Putin because of the legal issues
There will be many tasks for Wagner in the years to come. In Africa and Asia there is still a lot to be done to push the parasitical neo empires out..
Yes, but imagine Blackwater run by CIA agents trying a coup against the US government. Not gonna work...
There aren't 200k men in Wagner. Drop a zero and you're closer to the actual number. I very much doubt it exceeds 30k, and is now probably closer to 20k.
Don't forget that Wagner only grew large because of the big influx last fall of inmates on six month contracts. Those six months have long since gone by, and the vast majority of them did NOT continue to serve with Wagner afterwards. Add to that the losses incurred in Bakhmut and you're left with at most 30k men, and probably significantly less.
What the joke.
1. Wagner, as Prigozhin said, have lost 10k in Bakhmyt (+10k jailed). So you think they have lost 50% - 10/20k???
2. Main power of Wagner is still in Africa and other regions
3. Many people from army go to Wagner (cause of parquet generals and other aspects)
3. Main power of Wagner is the highest elite. 10 years ago (dont know about nowadays) it was almost unreal to join this group (u had to have incredible experience and skills). But now, as i guess, they recruit people with a less crazy track record, and they are the ones who die. But elite groups are becoming more and more immortal in terms of skills.
You're being disingenuous. I'm saying that Wagner has 20k to 30k men NOW. After the mass of convicts has left (several tens of thousands of them), and after the losses they incurred (whatever they really are).
You're also being disingenuous concerning Wagner's alleged losses, where you seem to be cherry-picking. Prigozhin also said that Wagner lost 12k men in total, IN THAT VERY SAME INTERVIEW! And he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign, again and again, that Ukrainian losses were 7 to 8 times Wagner's losses. He has also made statements at different points with regards to the average daily fatalities for Wagner.
If we look at the entire almost 300 day campaign, we need to take into account that the first half or so (approaching Bakhmut slowly, rather than fighting in it) was nowhere near as intense as the latter half. Even then, for most of the second half progress in the city itself was very slow and methodical. Only at the final stages did the intensity and pace change and losses mount.
So there's really three phases: 150 days or so approaching the city, 100 days or so of mostly slow, gradual city fighting, and maybe 50 or so days at the end of accelerated city fighting.
Based on Prighozins own statements, the average daily fatalities during the second stage were 30 men at most. Multiplied by 100 days gives you 3000.
The first stage saw far fewer KIA's, both because of less intense fighting and because Wagner was much smaller back then, and the average daily fatalities will have been around 15 at most. Multiplied by 150 gives you 2250.
The last 50 days or so saw much more intense fighting (IMO because they wanted to end the campaign before the bulk of the convicts had served their 6 months and were likely to leave), so let's say the average rose to 45 men lost per day. Multiply that by 50 and you get 2250 again.
So realistically speaking, Wagner lost around 3000 + 2250 + 2250 = 7500 men (fatalities). Personally I think that the daily averages were lower than that, and the total KIA for Wagner between 6000 and 7000.
Prigozhin, and others, including Lotus who actually commands Wagner, have repeatedly stated that Ukrainian losses are about seven times worse (or sometimes eight times worse). 7 x 7500 = 52500 Ukrainian fatalities. Almost exactly what many on the Russian side claim were the total KIA's for the Ukraine.
Only at the very end of the campaign did Prigozhin suddenly change his tune and started claiming much higher casualties than he ever did before, and in that interview where the 10k+10k you referred to come from, he repeatedly contradicted himself on this issue.
Don't forget, he pretty much turned into a psyop operation in the flesh, whose main task is to feed western and Ukrainian biases, not to tell you or me or anyone else the truth.
they are not mercs, really, they are like a special branch of Russian military. they hate the burocracy and idiotism involved with Russian military under Shoigu, so they find pleasing to be in a special branch, free of these things. Its like the extention of GRU, wich by the law, reports only to the President, not the DoD, or the minister. Wagner is basically reporting to Putin, and Prigozhin does nothing but executes his orders. ps: having lots of men with military and combat expirience in civilian life is and always was a bad scenario for any country, but theres nothing you can do. if the men are supported by the suciaty as defenders of the Fatherland, it goes smoothly.
In my opinion, Wagner is to a large degree modelled after the French Foreign Legion, at least in regards to how it fits into the overall picture (no, I'm not saying it's a copy, there are also differences). The FFL is a mercenary outfit. And like all mercenary outfits, it has an owner. That owner just happens to be a state, not some private individual(s).
The great advantage of the FFL, is that as a mercenary outfit, the French parliament has no say in how they are used, in fact, the government doesn't even have to inform them if or when or how or where the FFL is deployed. The same doesn't apply to the regular French armed forces. Conscripts can only be used abroad with prior parliamentary approval, while in the case of deploying volunteers (contract soldiers) abroad, the government must seek parliamentary approval as soon as feasible, and needs to be informed swiftly.
Russia has similar restrictions on how it can deploy its regular forces. Having its own mercenary outfit owned by the state, gives it far more leeway and options regarding the use of its military forces. It also fits very well with the notion of hybrid and unconventional warfare. Just look at how phenomenally effective Wagner has been in Africa in helping nations kick out neocolonial occupation forces.
If Wagner doesn't depend on the MoD, as you claim, then what State Agency do they get their funding from? I'm sure, Prigozhine isn't paying them out of his own pocket.
Fun is, that's exactly what Prigozhin claims.
https://www.m24.ru/news/obshchestvo/26012023/544725
Alexander Mercouris from The Duran recently claimed that he was contacted by some guy from the upper echelon of WG via email and told him all that things i has written above. At least part of this info corroborates with what u can find in the net.
As for the real source of funding - how could i possibly know where all the $ are coming from? I'm not privy of Kremlin's bureaucratic tricks. It's definitely not MoD because now, when MoD declared that all volunteer batallions like Ahmad or Kaskad must sign contracts with them, Prigozhin gave them a finger instead.
As for Mercouris, i really don't remember when exactly he was telling about all that. U can try and watch his vids, there is a lot of usefull info anyway
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Озеро
I agree which is why Prigozhin specifically said last time that when he requested to raise his army to 200k he was denied, at least for now. But who knows if in future they may allow it particularly when the size of Russia's army is far larger. It's one thing to fear Prigozhin's 200k when Russia's own army is only 200k but if Russia's is 800-1M then 200k mercs may not be as threatening.
Is there any reliable information at all out there about the real size of Wagner, besides the hard to believe mutterings of Prigozhin?
Simply based on all the effort, cost, training, logistics, cadre, and time it takes to assemble a modern fighting force, I find it very hard to believe that Wagner (aside from convicts serving a six month tour, of which I seriously doubt are many left, if any at all) has more than 30k men in theatre, and probably less.
The only way that it could be significantly higher than that, would be if Wagner is just another part of the Russian armed forces after all, and only pretending to be a PMC, and pretending to be at odds with the MOD.
I agree about that number, or at least that was always my guess until I started hearing claims that Wagner had 50k. The other 'reliable info' depending on what you consider reliable were the Pentagon leaks. They gave the exact number of Russian forces in Bakhmut for instance.
Directly from leaks page:
Bakhmut Axis:
Regular Russian personnel: 29,000
Regular/Res/RLF/TDF: 7000 (territorial defense, etc?)
PMC/Wagner: 22,000
Those claims of Wagner having 50k men IMO reflected their peak number, so right after the bulk of convicts were absorbed, but before they took serious losses during the fighting for Bakhmut proper.
Remove the convicts whose 6 months have long since passed, and the losses amongst Wagner's 'regulars', then add some recent new recruits, and you end up with a number that's likely between 20k and 30k.
I hadn't noticed that number of 22k from the Pentagon leaks, but it looks quite realistic to me, especially if you assume that the majority of heavy combat support and nearly all non-combat support for Wagner was supplied by regular forces. If those 22k was mostly tooth and little tail, it seems perfectly reasonable to me.
More detail son Wagner numbers:
"“As of June 18, 2023, 32,000 people from among those previously convicted and who took part in the SVO on the territory of the LPR and DPR in the ranks of the Wagner PMC went home at the end of the contract,” said Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner PMC.
He noted that the fighters who were released committed 83 crimes, which is 0.25% of the total number of those who left. This is 80 times less than that of persons released from places of deprivation of liberty for the same period without concluding a contract with the Wagner PMC."
So 32.000 former convicts went home, as in, left Wagner completely. Dead men don't go home, so this is in addition to losses amongst them.
Given that the total Russian prison population prior to this was around 450.000, it would appear that inmates as a source of recruits has been pretty much tapped out.
Belgorod region is now getting more artillery attacks than Donbas, villages 10+ kilometers from UA border are now abandoned, with occasional incursions by various UAF supported para-military / terrorist squads.
Yep, that is war, the enemy gets to fight back. No need for handwringing and bedwetting.
Looks like even Russia has it's own troubles, but these are matters of degree. Though we've already been following this for a year, I think we ain't seen nothing yet.
I translated the meeting into English and broke it into two parts: https://vk.com/@580896205-putin-meets-with-war-correspondents-part-one and https://vk.com/@580896205-part-two-of-putins-meeting-with-war-correspondents
At MoA, Russian commentator S provided some input related to what the meeting covered on the current week in review thread in which I made one reply, and another today:
" Putin's heard similar complaints before in his meetings with SMO participants, their spouses, children, and patriotic support organizations; I know because I've read the transcripts of their conversations. There were problems with the partial mobilization, too. IMO, what must be faced is the fact that Russia's Military and its MIC has never been tested in this manner ever; as a result, its inefficiencies and ineptness in certain quarters was unmasked along with the unfortunate nature of its bureaucratic culture--a disease that plagues all bureaucracies. Thankfully, Russia doesn't have the massive corruption problem that exists within the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals. Nor is the Russian government splintering from the inside as many European governments are, the former being quite credible in comparison. In almost every speech Putin gives, he mentions the need to increase efficiency across the board in every facet of Russia's socio-political-economy. There's no mention of it by the Kremlin, but I'll wager the national debt that Putin barked at more than a few people after his meeting and results will soon appear. Improving the bureaucratic culture will be difficult, but it can be done. That will be yet another facet of Russia to watch going forward."
Now to finish reading your posting.
I really have nothing more to add aside from telling your readers to read or listen to the entire meeting as Putin and the correspondents provide a weeks-worth of news. Oh, and do watch the SPIEF happenings. Putin will attend as usual; hopefully, the day will be announced at Zakharova's briefing tomorrow.
Edit 6/15 @1615 Pacific--
I should note that a citation of Putin's words is making the rounds that Pepe Escobar cited in his SCF article published today that's incorrect as it stands:
“We were forced to try to end the war that the West started in 2014 by force of arms. And Russia will end this war by force of arms, freeing the entire territory of the former Ukraine from the United States and Ukrainian Nazis. There are no other options. The Ukrainian army of the US and NATO will be defeated, no matter what new types of weapons it receives from the West. The more weapons there are, the fewer Ukrainians and what used to be Ukraine will remain. Direct intervention by NATO’s European armies will not change the outcome. But in this case, the fire of war will engulf the whole of Europe. It looks like the US is ready for that too.”
That's a collection of snippets pieced together to look like one entire statement. I combed the two different transcripts--my Yandex generated one and the Official Kremlin--four separate times and that paragraph doesn't exist. The bits, yes, somewhat like the Monroe Doctrine was initially snippets of a speech mashed together as a policy statement. Ultimately, it doesn't mar Escobar's article, but it does raise a credibility issue that I informed him about. When I first read it this morning, I thought it odd that I didn't recollect it although it all seemed correct--and it is but it isn't. It's an excellent example of what can happen when we rely on secondary or tertiary sources without vetting them. Here's the link to Pepe's article, https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/06/15/putin-and-what-really-matters-in-the-chessboard/
Thanks for the transcript!
May I have your permission to publish your transcript on my Substack, with full credit given to you and your work? Here you can see how I use -- extensive -- quotes from Putin and some elements of the Russian law / doctrine:
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/united-states-vs-russia-political
Sorry for the tardy reply. Yes, of course with proper attribution, you are free to cite anything I write.
Thanks for this - I know you usually post these links at MoA too, but I hadn't looked at MoA today. I'll have to read that whole thing tomorrow.
Thank you karlof1 for posting the transcript and names. Will be helpful when watching it in full.
Thanks much!
Simplicus, I think you misunderstand what Putin said about number of recruits. It's not 150k plus another 156k. I think it'd 150k contract soldiers plus 6k volunteers for a total of 156k. If I'm right that changes the calculus quite significantly.
You may be right, I just did some digging to double check. Sources like this: https://ria.ru/20230519/armiya-1872971553.html stated ~117,400 of both 'contract *and* volunteer' had joined around May.
I think what tripped me up was the previous report which I also had pasted into the last Sitrep:
“In just ten days of the current month, 13,644 Russians 🇷🇺 signed up for contract Military service,” Deputy Defense Minister of Russia Nikolai Pankov said.
“This is 2.1 times more than in May this year and 3.1 times higher than in April.”
They also confirmed 117,400 people volunteered to join the Russian army ranks since January 2023."
This uses the language 'volunteers' but it actually means both combined.
However, even if that's the case, and the number now is 156k total of both, that does not change the calculus "quite significantly" as you state. Sure, the extra 150k I added is a huge number. However, even with that subtracted that should put them at 600k+ total rather than the 750k I had. This 600k total still wildly dwarfs what the AFU should currently have, so to me that should still be a very large disparity.
Plus, as per the above, it appears that each month the number of recruits is growing as they said "2x more than May and 3x more than April". This is in reference to the ~14k that joined this month. That would mean April and May had about 4k and 7k that joined, respectively.
If we extrapolate this out, and each month goes something like 4k, 7k, 14k, ~20k, etc. That could mean that by the end of 2023 there would be an additional 100k+ troops. Even if it stays at 14k per month joining, there are 6 months left so 14 x 6 = 85k. So that means by early next year, we could already be near that missing number anyway, i.e. the 150k that I wrongfully added. Let's say we add another few months of next year which also see 15-20k monthly recruitment. That means by next March or so, it can be an additional 150k which would put it right back to the 750k I had envisioned.
Of course, AFU is also recruiting in this time, but as I said the recruits they're getting are being attrited much faster so it's not certain their number is actually rising at all.
Last century, Russia has been infected with the Bolshevick virus and we know what these psychopaths have done to the Russian People.
We ask the Russian people to understand that the American people are under attack by the same virus. The only difference is the virus has mutated from economic Marxism to cultural Marxism or Wokism.
They are destroying all our institutions and now we have the Central Planning Bureau or Blakcrock implementing social scoring by controling capital allocations to corporations to coerce Board of Directores they have influence over to normalize sodomy and pedophilia.
Mr. Putin understands this and so do the American people who continue to wake up to this virus.
When it is all said, the Russian and American people have no reason to dislike each other at all.
Both our peoples face the same enemy. America faces it from within and Russia, being a healthier society at this time, faces it from without.
God help us all against the satanists.
So if the Bolsheviks took over, then obviously the USA has free education, free medical care, subsidized housing as a right. Please let me know when that happened.
The US is far and away the least generous country in the West when it comes to free shit for the common man, but sure it's run by bolsheviks. Free shit for the elite is just par for the course in any capitalist oligarchy.
then it's not Bolsheviks, which is Marxist, it's exactly what Madison intended when he wrote the Constitution. https://www.kobo.com/ca/en/ebook/we-the-elites-1
If you don't know what your talking about, then you deserve what you get.
This. The place is running just like it was supposed to run. An oligarchy. I mean Washington was a shady real estate speculator far more so than trump. Washington even scammed French and Indian war veterans to get rich.
Rather than quibble about how historical terms and examples apply to the situation currently unfolding perhaps examining the mechanisms would be more productive.
Yes, and using a defined, universal vocabulary at hand would be a big help. If every word has to be guessed at, then what is the point.
If by universal you mean planetary then sure go ahead. Since they do not appear to be agreed upon HERE, then that's a lost cause. What I meant was that examining the mechanics and dynamics of "how" is often a more effective route to finding solutions. Examples abound.
Bro, the 1930s called, they want their political categories back. You, on the other hand, need to realize it's not the 1930s and all your categories are completely obsolete. The "bolsheviks" in America are now 100% allied with Global MegaCorp and they both push the same agendas. The "Left" is 100% aligned with the Deep State, the military, the intelligence agencies: all the stuff they used to protest against, but now they occupy the heights of ALL those institutions. And they are virulently hostile to the working class, in particular the white working class, who they are absolutely destroying. All in the name of "equity" and "justice," of course.
So "Trump Vocab" is universal in you life circles, good luck with getting on with the rest of the world.
This has become super confusing. "Bolshevism" no longer signifies "Marxism and the rejection of capitalism". It means alignment with the deep state, the MIC, and big finance. What is one supposed to call people who actually still believe in Marxism and the rejection of capitalism ? Are they still called Bolsheviks ? That seems to present obvious difficulties in clear communication.
I think some people use "Bolshevik" the way others use the word "Fascist", basically to mean "scary-sounding term to designate anyone I don't like"
That's certainly part of it but it's a far more generalized problem than that. When someone is just using a word as an insult it's usually pretty obvious and one doesn't expect perfect accuracy in its usage. I might call a cop I didn't like a fascist in the heat of the moment but I'm not then going to create my own new definition of fascism that includes cops, Karens, and pentecostal preachers - all things I don't like. Outside of heated arguments words have to mean something or all discussion becomes pointless.
Make a word up. If you are honest, you'd admit borrowing a word because in your narrow circles it has bad meaning. Sort of like Trump / Trumper has in other narrow circles.
They are seeking to blame shift the bad results of state capitalism, onto a secret group of leftist bogey men
"This has become super confusing. "Bolshevism" no longer signifies "Marxism and the rejection of capitalism". It means alignment with the deep state"
This is just made up.
I generally agree. We insist on recycling 20th-century political taxonomy in our new age of woke. I think we should come up with new categories and new names.
But for now the old ones can still be useful. I’d stipulate that the ‘progressivism’ so fashionable in the US Uniparty looks a lot more like 1920s-30s Eurofascism than Russian bolshevism.
Note the dominant role played by woke private corporations. Especially in the finance, defense and pharmaceutical sectors, it often appears corporate oligarchs are calling the shots, not the bureaucrats whom they’ve ‘captured’ ... much less questionably elected woke officials or their cabinet appointees. At the very least, the oligarchs seem generally to have coequal clout with government officials.
This relationship much more closely resembles Eurofascism or ‘national socialism’ of the 1920s-30s than it does bolshevism, under which major industries were directly state-run.
The waters are further muddied by western ‘libertarians,’ who regard bolshevism and fascism both as movements of the left, because they’re collectivist in essence, although fascism allowed corporations to remain privately owned and run.
If I’m right about corporate dominance of US government, that’s a key difference between today and both fascism and especially bolshevism 100 years ago: Mussolini and Hitler were most definitely calling the shots, not the captains of industry who operated under state supervision.
The irony is that Trump and MAGA represent the real American worker's party now (not the GOPe, who are corporate shills). That's one reason the power structure went after Trump -- he sided with Main St. over Wall St. You'd think the old labor socialists would have flocked to his banner, but alas they bought into all the fairy tales about Trump being a "racist" or whatever other meaningless slander got tossed his way.
Trump is an opportunist. He appeals to labor sentiments because there are the votes. But this is just talk. When you look at his actual policies he gives them only crumbs. Most of his policies serve two other constituencies: his sponsors (who are mostly rich) and the national bureaucracy.
"The "Left" is 100% aligned with the Deep State, the military, the intelligence agencies: all the stuff they used to protest against, but now they occupy the heights of ALL those institutions"
You are engaging in conspiracy theory and blame shifting away from right wing capitalism, and putting the blame on fictional bogey men Marxists.
Everything free only for American Satanists
It's the same European Communists that are taken the World down and the US populace is in their way. We have the guns. You must understand the mechanism and how communism destroyed Russia. It is the same mechanism it uses to destroy the US and the West, however the medium is not economic it is cultural.
The lithium is in your left drawer.
Nonsense.
You might find this essay interesting if you have some time.... yeah US is done. Just a matter of time. If you're an American it's depressing to be sure but may help with life planning.
“Complex Systems Won’t Survive the Competence Crisis”
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
Great article. Equity has been the biggest ally of corruption in my country, destroying our rail system, roads, army, police and electricity supply. One broken rail line alone carried R60bn to the harbour in my city. South Africa has loadshedding almost daily, in some areas up to 12 hours. I had no water yesterday morning and night, and this morning, with only a trickle yesterday afternoon. An optimist might say that at least I'm not suffering like southern Johannesburg which has had no water for a week, but I'm feeling damn pessimistic because equity continues to 'protect' 90% of the population 30 years after we got democracy. Yeah, to outsiders who don't know, Government's equity policies are against the minority. This system of bias obviously doesn't work because half the country is now unemployed. We're a warning to the world how bad it can get.
Idolising murderous mindless thugs like Mandela can do that to a country.
White rule by murderous racist scum for decades can do that to a country. The white ruling class detonated a hand grenade before stepping down.
And yet two years after apartheid ended the vast majority of blacks said their lives had gotten worse not better because racists that could run an economy were replaced with racists that couldn't. All racists are equal but some racists are more equalthan others.
It is unreasonable to expect a people that have been colonized for a century or more, to be able to self-rule again straight off the bat. Not only their lands were colonized, more damaging was that their minds were colonized too. Hence, self-hating behavior.
This decolonization process will take time as it has never been done before on this scale.
Add to that IMF debt and US bullying behind the scene, and you have yourself cornered against a wall whilst learning how to walk again.
Why do you think Russia and China are ahead of the game? They were never colonized in their entirety.
Lol! Yeah, during the rule of those "racist scum" South Africa was a virtual paradise, and blacks were streaming INTO the country by the many thousands every year. Just like now they stream into "racist" Western nations, for some mysterious reason. It's amazing how these crackpot notions of colonialism still persist among the ancient Marxists.
So colonialism never happened?
"How dare black people fight back against oppression. "
translated your post.
"How deeply shallow I am"
Translated yours.
Nope, You love racism and oppression. "know your place. darkie" that is your world view.
Well, we had something like that in 90's in Russia, but with Putin's help we put an end to this and slowly rebuilding ever since. Maybe you should consider hiring him as a consultant since we are in the BRICS already? :) Or you can try and elect Leo Prinsloo :)
On a serious note: With US losing its power I hope that things are finally starting to get better for everyone not in their lackey's list
Imagine if the yeltsenites remained in power (not that they hadn't tried).
I really, really don't want to do that...
Looool, wut, you dont wanna reminisce and lament over the "holy 90s"? Totally unhandshakesble, bruh. Next thing you gon say that Navalny isn't the hero we deserve /s
Nah I don't wanna imagine it either. For me the Yeltsin era was like a vaccine against US-borne "democracy". Once you see it, once you live through it, you don't want that shit to repeat.
not yeltsenits, the jews. the semibankirschina was an oligarchate, when all the 7 were jews. all the media were infested with degeneracy, owned by them, all the resources sucked dry for them to profit, etc etc.
@ St
I found this essay interesting as I'd not spent enough tracking these "Koch suckers" fake libertarian bullshit spreading while tracking the forever wars it has backed and proffited from.
That essay blames every problem in USA on "diversity". While there are one hell of a lot of issues resulting from oligarchy, regulatory capture, MIC pork and profiteering, destruction of social institutions and (most critically!) public education due to every major corporation in USA and most of the rentier classes shedding most of their income tax burden on to the "little people", resulting education & orher critical to human asset development budgets being slashed.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/koch-brothers-americans-for-prosperity-rightwing-political-group
Blame is NOT on "diversity", per se, but on the rejection of meritocracy in favor of other elements, some of which you cite, with "diversity" being only one. Also, you should not fall into the trap of believing that the size of budgets is what determines the success or failure of any particular program. A small education budget, spent intelligently with proper prioritization, is of far greater value to society than a huge budget spent primarily on bloated bureaucracy, ideological indoctrination, and non-academic fluff.
Debt slavery through Jewish Banking Mafia and Zionist satellite useful idiots and compromised politicians. We are dealing with a parasite that has been kicked out of countries 119 times throughout history.
I'm pretty sure it is only 109 countries to this point but country 110 is certainly winding up to do the same it seems to me.
You are right. Jews have been thrown out of host countries 109 times for bad behavoir. But next the local empowerment movement might jump that to 150 quickly.
I think the clear out will be rather more than that to be frank.
its 110 or 111 to date, iirc. they were expelled from one small country in latin america recently.
They are only innocent victims.....aren't they?
You might want to learn how most Russians look at their Soviet past.
If it’s not economic Marxism then it’s not Marxism. Such a thing does not exist. It’s just been invented to keep misinformed people like you distracted and ultimately supportive of the status quo (while criticising it). It’s genius propaganda.
Marxismm
Marx was a theologian but was famous for his book Capital. He posited that man was flaws and incomplete. He wished to revolutionize man's social outlook.
I sorry I don't have the time to convince of this, but you can research it yourself.
He wished for labor to control the means of production. Nothing more. Obviously you need to read Marx as you don't know what you are talking about. If it isn't economic, it isn't Marx.
That isn't to say Marxist economic ideas where correct, but that is a different argument. There is no such thing as "social Marxism". The use of the term is just another fascist propaganda tool. That is what USA has, corporate fascism and all the crazy social issues spin off of that.
Here is another point of view to yours. Obviously, you need not be so proud of your incomplete perspective on everything. No one has a complete perspective.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OVZPYQS1dFA&pp=ygUfamFtZXMgTGluZHNheSBhdCBldXJvcGVhbiB1bmlvbg%3D%3D
Just read something by Marx directly and give YouTube a rest. YouTube is just another propaganda tool, a book by Marx is…a book by Marx. You’re just consuming ideas that serve an agenda.
I’m not saying you have to agree with Marx but at this moment all I know is that you disagree with someone’s misrepresentation of Marx. You see, capitalist propaganda mostly misrepresents Marx because it’d be quite tricky for capitalists to engage with actual Marxist ideas.
They do to Marx’s thought what they’re doing to the flesh and blood Russian army: ignore it and fight a parallel propaganda war in Lala land, where the Russians are the opposite of what they really are. Capitalism is all façade and illusion because we are not allowed to know the real workings at its heart. Which is, incidentally, what Marx has scientifically uncovered. Nothing to do with “cultural” this it the other.
But you have perfect right to know and support the doings of capitalism, from a position of knowledge.
When you are sure you know everything that's when you are wrong.
I reas Marx and I wish you would read his family background.
That YouTube video is garbage.
You are correct, and it is highly unfortunate. In the USA there really is no hope. Both "sides" are full of dunces. Implosion is best for the world, but it will be ugly.
Didn't the N@zis coin the term of cultural Bolshevism to denigrate modern art, which they considered degenerate? I think Russia is on the right side of history in this conflict; however, I don't think Putin is doing himself a favor if he resorts to ideological terms of this type.
Putin is absolutely on point.
Putin is trying to signal to far right lunatics and conspiracy nuts.
I think Putin is a genuine conservative. It's just that some in the conservative camp try to underpin their position by constructing an anti-woke ideology.
No he is trying to signal to a group and appeal to them.
Also there is no such thing as woke, the term is a euphemism. Right wingers either have false consciousness, or they are too scared to call out intersectional feminism.
Also Russia is just as feminist as the west in their own way. Mainstream Russian society allows a teenage girl to hang around as 10 year old boy who they claim they got pregnant off from and have sleep overs, then parade the 10 year old boy around on tv and say. "Ah... how cute is that couple" Girl in question admitted she lied and changed her story, and got a 15 year old boy she slept with charged with rape.
The term woke is vague and meaningless. There is no such thing as woke, so there can't be such thing as anti woke.
Let's not split hairs. Even if the term woke is vague, you know what I mean. The whole idea of wokeness is vague in itself.
What I'm saying is that, in its crusade to spread liberal values and neoliberal market principles, the West propagates a certain anti-conservative ideology which requires other people to adhere to the West's values if they don't want to be the target of Western sanctions or bombs.
Many people in the global South are inherently conservative and feel uncomfortable with the West's values. For example, Muslim leaders feel uncomfortable about transgender US generals, topless dancing at the White House, or Baerbock's "feminist foreign policy." That's where the Russians see their opportunity to gain influence by offering a conservative view. Muslim leaders who felt uncomfortable with the atheism of the Soviet Union supported the US's attempts to overthrow communist regimes, for example in Afghanistan. Today, these same countries feel more comfortable with Russian conservatism than with Western liberalism.
That is a promising approach and I can understand why the Russians are doing it. What I'm objecting to is that some inside or outside Russia try to make an ideology of it. Any such attempt is bound to be counter-productive.
I'm not American and I look at the issue from a geopolitical point of view. I'm not interested in domestic US issues.
The right in the USA have done more to destroy the family unit than any other group, then they claim they are pro family and go after gay people and blame them for the decline of family.
Men can be pushed away from their kids, not allowed to see them, forced to pay child support. thus mothers are incentivised to push fathers away. (Most relationship break ups are by women. ) It is a fact that single mothers are so bad at raising kids, that they are a legitimate danger to them.
Fatherlessness was a lot rarer before the government incentivised mothers to kick fathers away, then the right wing blame fathers for not being responsible, and call them dead beat dads, and then pass even harsher child support laws, thus incentivising even more family break up.
My point is, this "anti woke" nonsense is blame shifting by the right, for problems they caused themselves. The right is just as anti feminist as any radical feminist man hater, but at least feminist man haters do not put on a front of being pro family.
the people of russia and in fact the entire post-soviet world don’t see the soviet period as a tragedy, they see its destruction as a tragedy. the americans could only subvert and ‘nazify’ ukraine after the union fell. during soviet times those two peoples, russians and ukrainians, were brother-nations, two parts of the common soviet people, what was once a new historical community. the union destruction paved the way towards the american-led bloodletting of brother against brother in ukraine.
Have you forgotten the slaughter of millions (estimates of 26 million and more) of White Russians (No reference to skin color) by the Bolshevicks? 26 million is much more than 6 million.
that’s simply impossible, come on now. that’d make stalin the only leader in the world who somehow managed to kill 26 million people (without including the 20 million dead due to the war) whilst increasing the soviet population from approximately 150-160 million in the late 30s to 200 million in the late 50s...
besides, if those numbers even were true, stalin wouldn’t be respected by any group within modern russian society. instead, even nationalists and non-traitorous liberals hold him in high respect, even if begrudgingly.
The Whites fought a civil war for control of the Russian Empire. Why are the casualties exclusively the Reds fault ? Is this a general principle ? Who was 100% responsible for all the casualties in the American Civil War ? Was it the Yankees or the Confederates ? The English Civil War ? Cavaliers or Roundheads ?
The estimates of 26 million are pure nonsense, he killed a few million at most.
Are you A mII666, cia or Unit8200 troll?
"Marxism to cultural Marxism or Wokism."
There is no such thing as cultural Marxism, or Wokism. Cultural Marxism is a conspiracy theory, and wokism is just a euphemistic term used for feminism.
Americas behaviour is innate to capitalism, and imperialism, scapegoating it on "Marxists somehow taking over the USA" is just deflection.
http://readingthemaps.blogspot.com/2011/07/cooking-frankfurters.html
This old blog post is a decent debunk of the cultural Marxism conspiracy theory. IT makes no sense. Also the term Cultural Marxism is a far right dog whistle, and comes from the old nazi term cultural bolshevism.
Feminism/wokism is an aspect of capitalism, so called cultural decay is a product of capitalism, not communism.
The USA was an imperialist country long before the fall of the Soviet Union, and its behaviour is not much different to the past, so the idea that "This is due to a secret group of Marxists " najes zero sense, and it is scapegoating.
Perhaps he means that Russia can supply DU to proxy too? Then the question is what proxy would be willing to allow such a poison to be used? Syria seems unlikely.
@ Bilbo'sBitch
Lord love you! You've returned to let us all know the perils of certain peoples and ideologies.
But you're just as wildly inaccurate re: anything technical as you ever were.
Doctors in Fallujah recommended that women not even attempt to have children.
I'm not even going to post images of the attempts to do so.
Could be Sudan. The RSF vs. AOS fight has fallen off the radar in the west, but it sure as hell is still going hot and heavy. In fact, RSF just captured a strategic airport this week.
There are also a few other places ripe for kicking the Empire in the nuts, like Niger.
No, Putin is not going to piss off his African contacts by using their continent as a waste dump. That's what the EU and USA already do with electronics waste.
He could fire du munitions at Ukrainian / polish border posts
Or they could just be words. RF forces already have force multipliers galore and do not to use DU.
How about City of London, Wall Street and Washington DC?
Or do you think I'm being too aggressive?
The only logic I can make of Putin's statement about reciprocating DU is that he doesn't mean to do that in former UKraine, necessarily....
Happy Russia day.
Great and extensive write up as usual much appreciated
Or responsive DU is just a threat to make the USA hesitate. However, Putin is fluid. He speaks with ambiguity so that his words can adapt to changing situation.
I'm pretty sure that the USA would change its tune on the safety of harmless DU if some of it landed in Martha's Vineyard. Although it would technically be a war crime, I imagine most Americans would be willing to look the other way.
I wish no harm on anyone , and I sure wish they would stop arming former Ukraine, as all agree that will end the war.
Sadly, the pattern seems to be if they announce it being sent , tis already there in former UKraine...
I don't mind seeing real Nazis burn, but the problem is who determines what/who is a "real Nazi". They tried it at Nuremburg and made a huge mess of it.
I guess what I want to say is, gee, how sad that folks get that silly ideology about superiority, and no where more so than the Arrogant West, which I believe has basically imported that sick fascismo and made it our own, Gavin, Nazi pelosie, those who protect bidendiaper.
To impeach is patriotic...
And those who just succumbed to the false flag of superiority but can be cured of that, if possible, then may that cure be forthcoming.
Thank you
It's worth noting that it was the Surgeon General of the US Army that wrote a paper on the detriments of DU munitions
Well, maybe he had in mind possible Baltic states intervention - in this case DU will be distributed among troops in Belorussia to be used in their (Baltic states) territory
Every time a terrorist action happens by Ukraine against Russian civilians or Russian infrastructure, it becomes increasingly difficult for Russian politicians to sell the concept of reconciliation, or peace, or anything other than a total surrender of Ukraine to Russian citizens.
"... if the surviving rump state of the Ukraine cannot be remolded into a nation which respects Russia and treats Russia cordially, then Ukraine “should not exist” at all as a state. ..."
So if Russian politicians can no longer sell anything except a total surrender of Ukraine, it makes sense for Russian Generals to follow the wishes of civilian leaders. The least risky military strategy is to create more meat grinders and slowly but systematically annihilate as many Ukrainian citizens as possible.
Without young citizens (40 and younger) Ukraine cannot wage a longer-term terrorism operation.
Which is why it is entirely plausible that the US and UK (as well as others) are engineering those attacks so as to prolong the killing. After all, who really benefits from millions of dead Slavs...
Looks like they focus Europe, not us. But u still dont wanna accept it
Please explain exactly what it is that I am refusing to accept if you don’t mind
1. Putin 2007: "I believe the U.S. already understands and will understand more and more that only a strong Russia will respond to the genuine interests of the United States." That has possibly altered, in respect to Ukraine, into deAmericanisation, though deNATOism would apply too.
2. It is logical that you wait until the enemy's forces are depleted so that you can overrun or chase them. There is a surge after victory.
3. The biggest factor in the war may not be the number of troops or hawks, but the internal politics of the USA. The general Public don't give a damn about Ukraine with the Biden and Trump scandals taking centre stage. Trump's "end war" argument is softer than the shit he's in so it may come down to how much Biden will need Ukraine as distraction from his son's. Almost all presidents want to come out of the closet as Margaret Thatcher.
I've no doubt of their position. I'm only commenting on what it will take for their action to be proportional to their belief.
Some insight into the reasons of your p.1 by Ray McGovern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNnfI-ti2Ng
I love Ray. He was gracious to respond to a compliment I sent him. I had seen that video but hopefully more people will watch it - thanks.
Thank you Simplicius for summarizing Putin's salient points to the so called voenkors.
This NATO infrastructure/logistics build up doesn't bode well for peace. Appears these neocons are locked in on WW3. I suppose the only thing that will roll back NATO is the real war, the economic one taking place on world stage.
Given the de-dollarization and it's crux related to hegemonic control, I think for them there is only "victory or death". This does not bode well for the general well being.
Disguising yourself as the enemy is a war crime and usually leads to being killed on the spot when captured.
Technically not a war crime, but you are correct in that execution is the punishment. They are classed as spies during war times.
“Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury”.
From un.org
So technically yes a war crime. Not that they get enforced. But to be sure enforcement will be done on a small scale, up close and personal.
Ukrainians and their western enablers regularly violate the Geneva Convention.
They will continue to do so, as long as they can do this with impunity.
Putin was speaking about the Dnepr as it stood when it was carrying large masses of water immediately after the dam was blown up. Right now, it's a very different story. The amount of water flowing down the Dnepr has become a trickle. Ukrainians will soon attempt to strike across the river.
Oh yeah. And they will march quickly through ten kilometers of silt, mud and other shit that made up the bottom of the reservoir.
It's hard to imagine a bigger gift.
Leaving tracks that are visible from low earth orbit...a gift indeed.
Being stuck in the mud in an open area is even bigger.
That depends on how long the AFU wait to cross Kakhvoka Reservoir, as Kherson actually has a pretty hot and arid climate, with the only desert in Europe, Oleshky Sands, being pretty close to the Dnieper River. If the AFU waits until mid-July to strike, the former reservoir would actually be very suitable for an attack on ZNPP with amphibious vehicles like BMP-2s and BTR-70/80s.
It will take a long time to dry. In addition, a crust forms over the silt when drying, under which the same dirt is still. The Kherson region is not a Sahara desert.
And so, by the way - it's raining now.
Concerning the second mobilization in August. How many troops do you think Russia would need to occupy all of Ukraine? I've seen from 50-100 occupied civilians per occupying soldier to 20-200 civilians per soldier. Depending on how how hostile the natives are.
Also, I suspect that you are right about Russia holding back reserves incase NATO intervenes. I simply can't imagine the neocons in DC accepting a Russian victory when they have any cards left to play.
I can hardly imagine Russia occupying all of the Ukraine. Russians already had a huge problems with Nazi supporters there after WWII. As far as i remember it took about 5 years, give or take, to catch/kill all this assholes, and that was without active Western support. I think Russians will destroy the army, turn to trash everything military - related, replace the government and leave new government to deal with all this mess.