A few weeks ago the U.S. Army War College released a paper which was an urgent call for the U.S. armed forces to adapt to the modern style of warfare being innovated in the Ukrainian conflict. The paper made the rounds due to some startling admissions, which we’ll get to. But what’s most important to understand is that the paper represents a general major shift in thinking propagating throughout the entire sphere of the Atlanticist West, and was released in concert with several other key thinktank pieces and policy shifts announcement from the EU, NATO, etc., which holistically represent a mass internal panic deep within the structures of the West, and a subsequent need to urgently change their strategy.
A quick demographic of those attending such events could be enlightening! Psychopaths with zero empathy, how many of his fellow workers though? Have we really progressed from the days of the Roman Coliseums?
Generally agree. Psychos can not be taught empathy. Not sure about now but was in USN and there were a lot of normal folks around. Nam was not a cake walk.
The stats for WWII vets had the average grunt facing around ten days of combat a year. In Viet Nam those guys humped for like 270 days a year.
When the sun went down the US lost their edge. The terrorist US became the victim. Not excusing My Lai, but things happen in a group that don't as individuals. This accounts for horrendous suicide rates among combat troops, my take. They can't live with what they have done, not a problem for psychos.
We need to move to new paradigms for solving the problems we face. War extracts a huge price. At the same time creating unheard of profit for those who start and fund them.
Remember North African civilians used by US Army soldiers in WWll using them as target practice. Sure he North Africans are grave robbers and scavengers just like their ancestors . Different strokes for different folks.
I wonder what most people would think if they were told bluntly about the 1620 Mayflower people robbing Indian graves. Even documenting it - analogous to "we dug up something like a grave"...
I agree. The officer class has been highly politicised and merit driven leadership destroyed. US now increasingly buying its own debt and the debt service costs are growing.. Waiting for both China and Japan to dump US treasuries.
CommuNazis infiltrated into the highest power structures of the U.S. Government. Blissfully unaware the U.S.S. Uncle Sam hit the Iceberg and there are no Life Jackets.
In recent months China and Japan HAVE dumped halt a trillion in US Treasuries. That's one factor in a deteriorating bond market leading to a serious credit crisis
Our most precious rare commodity, actual truth. Well if the tree huggers were at all credible you would think slowing down the rush to war would be on their radar.
No the most undeniable agenda seems to be reducing the population. The spoiled, degraded, controlled population of North America, top of list. The Nazi's are disgusted with what they have created. So is the creation, if suicide stats hold any water.
Well sure a draft unlike any we've ever seen. Transhuman chips, drugs for stamina, bravery and Loyalty? Perhaps the ultimate destination for all the immigrants showing up, sign up for the new GI bill, automatic citizenship if you live out your term. Not fuckin likely.
The grand vulgarian Paul Verhoeven based it on a book by Robert Heinlein but got so depressed reading the fascist drivel that he threw it away and made the film as a piss take. One of the conceits in the book is that 'service brings citizenship' rather than it being inherent. Quite a few US sci-fi aficionados seem to get excited by this idea but then, America is the place where the great lost leader Kennedy could say "And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country." which is (im)pure fascism and no-one noticed.
You also have the 'revised' figures scam, where US Treasury falsifies US economic data to represent that the economy is tracking in a positive direction, only to 'revise' it 3 months later, revealing the economy to be in very bad shape.
Biden and his thugs have been doing this repeatedly since they were 'inaugurated' in early 2021.
America has been a house of cards, managed by liars and con artists, for some time. The Biden Regime is the natural outcome.
The only fear I have is that some of the more ideological lunatics in DC don't actually know that the US is unable to finance a real war. They're so extreme and delusional (and dumb) that they don't understand what's going on, and instead believe America is invincible, exceptional and therefore immune from real world forces.
Well at least the military training that they DID get will greatly increase the effectiveness of their criminal enterprises so there’s that...
My mind wanders back to the halcyon days of the Iraq war where well established gangs would send their foot soldiers to the US military in order to get them up to snuff....
Lets hope this bully takes his beating with more grace than those two at Columbine. The combo of Nuke arsenal, old age and cozy cubby holes with all the 'comforts' they've 'earned', could be a bitter pill to swallow for us slaves.
I have explained that this blog has a freedom of speech policy. But that does not give you the right to: spam incessantly, particularly the same message over and over which begins to pollute the comments section and ruin the experience for others.
Similar to 2021, you can come out now if you get the shot....."that's good boys and girls, come on out now and get your shot.....you'll be able to play (eat, work, go on vakay) if you get the shot..."
If anything, the Report underestimates US casualties.
As Simplicius says, we haven't yet seen the Russian military at 100%. I doubt that they've even hit 35% of their full capability yet.
If the Americans were foolish enough to try and take on the Russians right now, I suspect the Russian response would simply devastate any US ground, air or sea assets involved.
Any American military asset gathered for such a purpose would be destroyed in less than 24 hours, so we would be looking at 20,000 casualties minimum in the first 48 hours, with far more in the subsequent 72 hours. It would be carnage.
I'd wager the first 24 hr's casualties would be at least 50K, maybe 100K. One would think there are hypersonics reserved for each and every US base (land, sea, & air) within 2,000 klms of Russia. That would include all of Europe, the MENA, Sth Korea, and Japan mainland and Okinawa.
No, the Russians will concentrate on the beast itself. The mainland US will essentially be gone within the first hour as will the nest of vipers in stolen Palestine.
If you want to sort out all the bullies in the playground it pays to annihilate the biggest bully first. Who knows but when you do that the others may have the sense to have themselves and their enablers in government, the medical "profession", the police forces, the courts, the "royals" arrested, given fair trials and then imprisoned for life on some festering isle. Better to go to prison for the rest of your life than be annihilated just as easily and carelessly as the US was.
At that point all bets are off. The SCO could enter the chat, and there might be a consensus that goes something like this: The USA cannot and will not stop trying to subvert, dominate or destroy anyone that does not do it’s bidding, so it must be hit hard and fast to ensure that it does not get back up again. When 80%+ of the global populace is behind this, it makes a strong statement. (Feel free to swap ‘USA’ for whatever cabal related word that suits your world view).
Remember that it took the "Coalition of the Willing" six months to stage all of the military equipment and people they needed in Qatar to even begin to fight the first Gulf War. Then they bombed the shit out of Iraq for weeks to establish air superiority and killed a quarter of a million civilians as collateral casualties before their forces invaded the country. In a full on war in Ukraine, Russia will likely hit all of the NATO staging areas, logistics and assets it can see in Europe with precision weapons, never letting the West get organized enough to launch a full scale offensive. And the idea (need) to establish NATO air superiority? Feggetaboudit - ain't gonna happen.
Furthermore, the Collective West is deluded to think that NATO boots on the ground will be a gamechanger, let alone an escalation. The first wave of mobilized Ukrainian Armed Forces were a far more formidable force than the fat, woke, fragile, poorly trained NATO conscripts will be. Russia decimated Ukraine's best forces - purported to be the second most powerful army in Europe - in less than six months. Russian forces also have now gained nearly 2 years of direct combat experience in the Ukrainian theater. In a gloves off fight with NATO, it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for the West.
If gets to this point, or right before that point, there 1000s miles of pipelines in the coast of Texas and Lousiana. They could be targeted as pay back for NSII. Same treatment could be applied to the pipelines from Norway to Britain and (the recently completed) pipeline to Poland.
If they're bombing each other conventionally, those targets would be attacked out in the open. No need for Special Ops.
Google the pipeline maps on the gulf of Mexico. Its a huge network of pipes way past the 12 nautical miles. These attacks would dry the biggest oil refineries in the US.
You know it was many years ago when I was studying the history of conflicts ands such when I began to notice just how fragile and UN defended the USA actually is. Of course after WW2 as the RoW lay in smoldering ruins, and the USA was busy getting it’s meathooks into it’s “interests” why would you need something like a robust air defense. Judging by the reports, it aint all that hard to enter the US and it’s would be prudent to assume that if another nation saw fit to plant some DRG type units they wouldn’t have much difficulty. Heck over the past 3 years the number of food processing plants that have simply blown up is astounding. Heck two of them were hit by civilian aircraft! My point being, that the USA will have more than enough to deal with on the home front if NATO vs Russia goes hot.
"Judging by the reports, it aint all that hard to enter the US" Massive understatement.
Seems Russia has figured out the US enough to not respond aggressively unless provoked.
When you overlook the tired and trite Unprovoked attack nonsense staying in a defensive mode is working quite well. These fantasies of retribution against mainland USA are tiresome. No one can do as much damage to the US as it is doing to itself.
The natural gas liquification ports have a lot of highly combustible stuff in them. So much, that a full tanker would go BOOM bigger than Hiroshima! There is one on the East Coast and one in the Gulf Coast. Either one and Russia could claim it is just America destroying more of Europe's vital energy supply infrastructure. All the better to exfiltrate the last wealth from Europe just as the continent sinks under immigration.
Of course, NATO is Russia's main strategic enemy since WW2. Main war strategy always was about full scale war against NATO both conventional and nuclear. I think when Putin started SMO he already had a plan in case of war with NATO. USA was preparing for war with some insurgents for last 50 years while Russia was preparing for war with NATO)
No, they wouldn't. The Russians are quite sane, while I can't say the same about the US leadership. The conflict would remain conventional for as long as possible.
If you roll a tidal wave over London, the wave also goes the other way. Say goodbye to coastal Belgium, Netherlands, probably North West coast of Germany and west coast of Denmark too.
That is a very large chunk of heavily populated and low elevation Europe.
NATO headquarters would not likely survive, among other considerations.
I love how when it becomes screamingly obvious to the rest of the world, they chime in...kinda the inverse of the canary in the coal mine. Who wants to be the last guy in the room looking at the brain trust’s PowerPoint anyway?
Either the "west," is going all Sun Tzu (appear weak, when one is strong) or Russia may feel the time is right to complete their SMO before the west learns new methods.
Knowing what is known, there are way too few Col. MacGregor's in the US military and too many woke retards, to coin a phrase.
Pretty much the entire RAND analysis is based on fundamental assumptions - Ru being a poor warfighter, and no match for NATO divisions should they enter the war.
This is why I keep saying Russia needs to DO something in terms of a significant battlefield success; not overwhelming, but enough to break the illusion these think tanks keep creating. Taking Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, whatever. If I'm Lindsey Graham reading this report, I am honestly wondering why the USAF just doesn't start bombing Russian positions directly.
Nothing is going to break the illusion of these think tanks, the rot has set in too deep, they are incompetent ideologues. Russia needs to do its own thing and not be pushed into rushing into something by people who do not have all the facts at hand. Significant battlefield success isn't killing 83K+ AFU in 4 months and making AFU offensive look stupid? Ah i see, they need to take territory for you to think they are being successful....
If the US thought it could get away with it and enter the war and destroy Russia they would have already. If they end up doing it anyways they will lose one way or another, and most likely we all lose, would probably be poetic justice for how stupid the human race has turned out to be.
Look at the moment all roads lead to nuclear war. A lot of that is due to perceived weakness or strength from one side to the other. Yes, my opinion is Russia needs to capture territory but the ultimate goal being changing perceptions or narratives. If that can be done another way, I'm ll for it
Because its my point of view. I think the current trajectory is one which will lead to a catastrophe. Lots of people - like you - say "its not about territory". What we are arguing is tactics in this case; Russia wants to win the war; you're saying they can do that by just sitting back and letting NATO/Ukraine impale themselves indefinitely. I'm saying that is not a winning strategy because it invites evermore escalation in terms of weapons systems and capabilities to the AFU.
The entire framework of the war in the West is about territory. The counteroffensive is about retaking territory. Their language of success is measured in meters. All I'm saying is if your enemy has brainwashed themselves into thinking that way, that it is not out of order to hand them a defeat on their own terms.
Yes, a lengthy conflict ensures the AFU gets new capabilities. I don't think it's realistic to expect that those capabilities will match the growth in Russian capabilities.
Unless the US comes up with something that actually does change the picture (a real breakthrough in munition production, some wonder weapon that actually is one, etc.) there is no real reason for Russia to engage in anything that could result in high losses.
As the weapons become deadlier and the tactics increasingly aggressive, and as Russia continues to show restraint, it is the West that will impale themselves on global opinion, showing themselves the crazed zealots they have become. I think Russia knows precisely where this will ultimately lead - to the dissolution of NATO and the bankruptcy of the Western alliance. As the aggression grows, so too will the divisions among NATO member states as the toll of the war crushes Western solidarity, resolve and their economies, especially as they see that no matter what they do Russia remains calmly committed to its goals - goals which I suspect have expanded from denazification and demilitarisation of just Ukraine to that of the entire Western alliance. This is all a game to the West, a game of increasing provocation in which they believe in the end Russia will back down at last rather than face the fury of NATO which they unfailingly see in their own Hollywood-induced delusional state, as all-powerful and against which no sane country would dare stand. Russia, on the other hand, perceives this for what it really is, an direct assault on their very existence as a sovereign state, and as such they will engage the west to the end knowing that at the end of it all there will be a world with free Russia or no world at all.
Ru certainly did that by NOT doing a winter offensive, contrary to the predictions of many. And then in their "active defense" they confounded observers again - the same likes of Ritter and Macgregor and such, who expected a different sort of scenario playing out.
We will see what comes next, once this never ending counteroffensive is over
The idea of choosing military strategy & tactics to validate an opponent's (now largely invalid) assumptions & preconceptions about what "victory" looks like is irrelevant, outside of online Twittercentric warfare.
I would agree in terms of battlefield realities. However, in the political space - where I believe warfare extends - it matters. Remember how everyone was for the Iraq war, till they were against it.
Somebody must to kill all the nazis which materialized in Ukraine in past 30 years. If you think it's exaggeration all you need to do is to find current Ukrainian textbooks (plenty online) and google translate it. Beware and welcome to abyss. Ditto Ukrainian summer camps for kids and what they teach there. Normal countries don't call streets leading to the site of mass murder with the name of a person who orchestrated said mass murder. Ukraine does.
If Russia acts swiftly, as you propose, then in the end you need to accept idea of mass executions, Nuremberg style. Will you accept that idea? If not, be patient and let Russia do the killing. Even if it leads to heightened WW3 risk.
To win a conflict you have to apply pressure until your opponent gives up or is subdued. In war that means offensive military actions. The destruction that Russia has caused on defense has been impressive, but it doesn't put any pressure on Ukraine to submit. It simply makes them look for additional options. Maybe not today, but at some point Russia will be required to take a decisive action and demonstrate that there are no options remaining for Ukraine.
There remains another option that few are discussing at this point - Ukraine's unconditional surrender. How that comes about would be through a military coup by some Ukrainian generals who seeing the futility of the war and the continued slaughter of their troops would overthrow Z and his "Not Sees", purge the military of those units and submit to the mercy of Russia. In such a case I can well envision NATO gnashing its teeth in helpless frustration.
I am sure that to a military man a coup is a very hard thing to execute as loyalty and obedience to the civilian authorities is an integral part of their service to their country. It would take a lot of courage and resolve to drive through something like that in Ukraine. And perhaps they are close to that point. We shall see.
This is a NEED to NOT rush. A working strategy is a working strategy. A minor, but not insignificant, difference (and the thrust of Simplicus's article.
Russia appears to be applying plenty of pressure to me, and why would Russia look a gift horse in the mouth and not accept the vaporisation of the AFU by destroying them on the defence and taking minimal casualties themselves and then going on the offense when they are weakened. For sure i assume Russia will take offensive actions, but at a time of their choosing, they aren't marching to a timeline to what people on the internet would like them to do. I mean most people here all want them to win decisively and see the grip of the hegemon loosened but we do not have all the data to be able to say what is the best options for them to take. Look at Ukraine, pressured to go on the offensive when it is not in their best interests and being destroyed, luckily Russia is not pressured to go on an offensive until they deem the time is right.
Well that's not entirely true, there are possibilities for it ending without a Russian offensive, however small, they are still possibilities that need to be mapped.
As far as i can tell, you explicitly stating that it doesn't have to be today doesn't invalidate the comments i have made. Anyways we seem to be in some rough agreement on the matter with slightly different perspectives, and i don't see much point in delving further down the pedantic road. I believe we have both clearly made our points known.
Every conscript sent to walk out into a minefield is one less guy the AFU have to sit in a hidden trench and wait to ambush Russian troops.
Or deploy as reinforcements to plug the gaps to prevent a Russian breakthrough. Or deploy as a reaction force to cut the flanks of a Russian breakthrough.
Like it or not, the Russians can only push fast and deep if they deplete the defenders first. If Ukraine has no troops to man the trenches, no artillery shells to punish Russian sappers and breach teams.
Imagine not waiting for this offensive, and launching a spearhead attack with an 80k strong army ready to cut you off.
I’m sure Russia will undertake offensive military actions. At the time of its choosing, based on its analysis of the situation. I assume that the time it will choose is going to be based on the weakness of the Ukrainian military / state and Russia’s strength.
Spring 2024 after a winter of pressure across the whole front and rear seems like a reasonable timeframe.
Nicely put. I’ve grown a tad bit weary of the concern trolling about how Russia isnt doing BigArrow pushes and has thus stalled or just doesnt have it in them. STFU already.
You voice your opinion/point of view like it has any positive merit.
It does not.
It is informed by an ignorance of facts only matched by Western Media.
Russia is DOING things that are having EXTREME success on the battlefield, both tactically and strategically. Obliterating the Ukraine "counter-offensive" in front of the "Surovikin Line" has sent shockwaves throughout NATO.
WHICH IS THE WHOLE F@$KING POINT OF THE ARTICLE YOU HAVE MADE YOUR IDIOT COMMENT ON!!
I don't get the hostility, really, to hearing a viewpoint that you don't agree with. Don't have time for it. I would happily make my argument to someone over a beer at a bar and nobody would lose their shit over it, whereas your response would land you on your ass. Goodbye.
Although I see your point, the passage of time is very useful when getting a point across. Despite NAFO trolls, the MSM AgitProp mills, and a highly opinionated but under-informed public Russia continues to not GAF (give-A-fhaak) what they think. And they do this consistently as they continue the path they have chosen seemingly unperturbed by the constant provocation. To the slightly more informed observer this stance garners considerably more respect than the constant screeching and backpedaling coming from the opposition. The longer this dynamic persists, they greater heft it accrues. Plus the fact that you can only lie over and over again for so long before people just stop listening, which is precisely why the western MSM has been given marching orders to pivot the narrative. It’s on the cover of the Rothschild Economist FFS!
There is a weird bifurcation happening for sure. On one hand, we have (thankfully) substack, Elon's X, and other platforms where the truth gets out. But then we have Politico saying "its complicated" on Nazis, and a standing ovation to a living member of the SS in parliament. I have never been so ashamed to be Canadian.
They don't need to. They crushing Ukraine with 5+ to 1 ratio and West still sees Russia weak. Traditionally, anything above 1.3 to 1 is a crushing victory, yet we have horse with blinders on - it's hopeless. No amount of demonstration will change that. Only direct participation will become a wake up call
With 77% undraftable it makes you wonder about the other 23%. What percentage of those will disqualify themselves? And; where is the competence to run the industrial part of any war? Nobody seems to be doing the math.
Right you are…and just who is it who is going to merely keep the country running at all if we are sending our best people for cannon fodder ? It is already nearly impossible for businesses to find anyone competent enough to hire.
In addition, that draftable 23% is unlikely to be spread homogeneously throughout the country but more localised geographically and in different socioeconomic strata. So, any draft would fall much more heavily on some sections of US society, with serious pushback from them.
And, of course, it excludes women, who are supposed to "be able to do anything a man can do, but better", and who are competing with men for positions throughout the economy and will get even more advantage when competent and fit men are conscripted and forced to lose career time.
In truth, it may be that even less than 23% is draftable, given that adapting to modern war conditions will put a premium on people able to think for themselves and deal with complex problems and technology. Given the abysmal education standards in US Democrat controlled cities, not many young blacks will meet the real education requirement even if they meet the physical requirements. Downgrading standards is one thing when you are not going to war. For a wartime army it is a guarantee that a much higher proportion of your army will get killed.
A big part of that 23% that is mentally and physically fit and with a clean police record is white Christian males - the same demographic that the government says is a domestic far-right terrorist threat. Article: Devastating Military Recruitment in 2024 https://identitydixie.com/2023/09/07/devastating-military-recruitment-in-2024/
and there is no conflict between the two. As Afghans, Iraqis, and going back Koreans and Mexicans can testify, the best far right terrorist, decedents of slave patrol, Chinamen lynch-ers are useful inflicting terror on those "other" people, so the system keeps on breeding them. Never know when it will be useful to have the black-shirts operating "again" in the USA. Just as long as they don't go killing puppies. https://archive.org/details/wtf-us-marine-throws-puppy-off-cliff-dailymotion-video-manifest
This is a curious response - if it is true that the best and the better part of the recruitable demographic for the necessary conscription in order for the US to win any overseas war against others than smallish groups of 'terrorists' in third world countries......
How can it be that the very same are identified as 'domestic far-right terrorists' and so presumably the subject of consequent repression, criminalisation, surveillance and surpression
This puts the US in a bind - their only efficient for foreign warfighting population is one the US is intent on waging domestic war on
My my - feels like a tizzy
Besides is it not their ynak ruling class which practices slavery and so on?
Perhaps one can conscript them, if no one else will do
Assume you are familiar with what the black-shirts(capitalist friendly Nazis) did to the brown-shirts (socialist friendly Nazis) and it just slipped your mind. If not, then it's a good item to study.
Gerrard - Reading the responses, and knowing people who think and talk like him in real life, who are always blaming "Y-T" for their shortcomings and self-inflicted problems (see numbers of weekly Chicago murders to see who is killing who currently in the streets of U.S. cities) and seeing the violence that can be unleashed on lone "Y-T's" who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time or not follow proper security precautions for fear of being called a racist...
Maybe the capacity to perform serious industrial scale violence to solve a problem once it goes on long enough / gets big enough - is a feature, not a bug.
The 23% are hated by the fascist regime running the USA, by both R's and D's. They wont fight. Antifa and BLM will have to take their place with the wahmyns and the trans special forces taking up the rear.
My son is a little old for draft 31 but just in case we got his passport up-to-date and about 20K in a central American bank. No way I'm letting my only die for these neocon crazies...I would say go to Russia but whole nothern hemi gets wasted in WW3. Southern hemi is not a threat.
I moved out of Canada down to SE Asia to get away from the woke and the fascists..Not sure what else to call them. The classic definition of fascism is the govt and corporations teaming up to oppress people. Thats my country now. Mental health wise my country is garbage. Covid broke people.
Your a smart man and great father. If there is a decent sized nuclear exchange you are correct it will take a long time for the radiation to make it way to southern South America in particular. Argentina and Uruguay are as good as i can find on the planet. Uruguay looks good just to retire in peace.
I hope no one shows up to the neocon's war. They should lead the charge themselves. That would be poetic justice and that would be my punishment for them. The pay per views of Victoria Nuland getting shot at could go to help the rebuilding effort or to the children of Donbas
The neocons need to be publicly humiliated then put down like the vicious dogs they are.
If shit hits the fan, South will not help. While, apparently, 'nuclear winter' is largely myth, radiation is real and it will hit everything. We only have one atmosphere.
It's not just lack of people. What about meat and potatoes (armor and ammunition)? Why the heck Russia produces more of it, than whole West combined? That's much bigger problem , because you can press gang the people like Ukraine does, it doesn't work like that with materiel
I think Nafo has painted itself into a corner here. They clearly cannot escalate directly; the main forces in nafo (USA, UK) are so casualty averse as to be considered incapable of actually fighting a war. The only likely proxies are Poland, Baltics, and Romania and their armies combined are smaller and less well-armed than Ukraine was at the start of the war. Besides, that opens a particularly dangerous can of political worms that I doubt the Nafos have the stones to open. Perhaps a few of the Russian-derived jews who make up a large portion of the war faction want this, but I think there are enough non-insane, non-Russian jews and gentiles within the power structure to prevent this.
The only tangible option is, as you said: giving Ukraine longer range weapons. But what weapons? Any that might be given have been made in such tiny quantities that their effect would be minimal (storm shadow anyone?) and the lead-time necessary to train Ukes or to get nafo mercs to use them would be so long as to further negate their effectiveness.
One has to wonder why these supposedly smart and perceptive people have absolutely no ability to foresee or even consider possible second and third order effects resulting from decisions and actions. It reminds me of the old "stonks" meme. Provoke war ---> Stonks! Seriously, just on the COIN stuff alone I, as a dumb college student, could clearly see how stupid Rumsfeld's ideas were 20 years ago and how they would lead to a crippling of the US military and what an unmitigated strategic disaster would unfold from the GWOT. It is actually funny to watch how each of their decisions further limits, narrows, and degrades their subsequent choices until they are left with nothing but "end game."
I know. It hurts the head. But yes, they really are that dumb. US sponsored coup in Ukraine to start. It backfires and Russia takes Crimea and kicks off a civil war in the Donbas. Then the west pretends to support the Minsk agreements so it has time to arm and train the neonazis. US provokes Russia into attacking, hoping to draw Russia into a quagmire. It backfires again, sactions hurt the west but not Russia, Ukraine is a quagmire for the west. Net result, the decline of American hegemony is greatly accelerated instead of forestalled. They really are that dumb.
Sick of all this war porn. One wonders where we'd be if they all were to use their energies for positive (not woke) change and the good of humanity. We are obviously still a planet full of crazy monkies brandishing jawbones.
I continue to wonder why people feel the need to introduce ethnicity into this discussion. Ethnicity doesn’t dictate the need for power and greed. And frankly, there are far more ‘Protestants and Catholics’ involved in this issue, but no one discusses them.
I note that the 'Army War College' Report totally glosses over 2 critical problems that face the United States right now:
#1 Russia's game changing development of new weapons, based on secret breakthroughs in advanced physics.
Not just offensive (eg manoeuvrable hypersonics) but also defensive systems (eg lasers)..
The advantage Russia enjoys in this area is exponential. The returns accelerate the longer the competition (America) fails to understand the physics behind these weapons.
To crack this will require a genius to emerge in the United States (ie pure luck), or a revolution in the American education system, which is in ruins. Even then it's debatable whether the Americans can ever catch up.
#2 America's poor / non existent military industrial capacity. Right now America can't sustain a major war against Russia, let alone China and certainly not Russia/China combined, for more than a few weeks.
Building this capacity would take years, and would be based on fossil fuels. It would require abandoning pretty much the entire global warming/climate change project.
By failing to include these two factors, the Report is pretty much meaningless drivel, consistent with the amateurs who seem to have written it.
Great points. I would also say that if/when the US pivots to war with China, it's going to discover that it's confronting China + Russia + Iran + North Korea, who have formed an unbreakable anti-hegemonic alliance. It may be presented as a China/US war on paper, but China's allies will be in the background providing material and other support as China needs it. Just as the other three countries are doing the same for Russia now. The neocon wet dream of a US led unipolar world has become an unattainable pipe dream as karma strikes as payback for its 70+ years of abusing the world.
It is difficult to imagine what a traditional war between China and the US would look like. Neither is capable of launching an invasion on the territory of the other. So other than long range missile strikes and sinking large floating targets what are we left with?
The war will remain asymmetric, as it is now. Even there, the US must realize after observing the effects in Russia and Iran, that sanctions will hurt themselves even more.
You seem to assume that such a war would be confined to the coast of China when you mention "floating targets". However, I believe both Russia and China are now prepared to take their missile attacks to the shores of the USA itself, having the capability to strike deep within the continent. I believe they have both expressed in the past that the US's traditional belief that their homeland can not be realistically touched is no longer valid.
You're missing the biggest point China doesn't want to invade America, China won't try & invade America. There's only 1 aggressor looking for conflict. China has a totally defensive force to protect itself. America has to travel halfway around the world to attack China. How is it logistically going to do that? It's American politicians & their fantasy world that they live in that talk up war with China . No rational person would ever dream of it. The Chinese are fully aware that America is ruled by psychopaths. So they're arming themselves accordingly. It's absolute insanity that American politicians are talking openly about confronting China. They haven't even got a reason to be upset with the Chinese, they come outwith the same bullshit lies they say about Russia but there's only one aggressor looking for conflict & making confrontational policies.
"It's American politicians & their fantasy world that they live in that talk up war with China. No rational person would ever dream of it. "
It's not insane at all, it's just criminal. If we go on assuming it's just insanity talking then we can't address it. If I wasn't so damn busy and lazy, then I'd look up where else I wrote this, but all of this is just capitalism writ large. The MIC must grow it's return, every year, or it is a failure as far as capitalism is concerned. That's why it is dangerous to let capitalism run the arms industry, they have to keep increasing the threat in order to keep increasing the spending. Space Aliens are being lined up for the day when the USA has guns pointing at South America, Balance of North America, Africa, Asia, and of course the EU. It's the last point of growth in spending.
You make valid points. It’s all very well and good in some candy assed think tank talking theoretical but as I like to say: Metal Talks and BullShit Walks. Someone earlier the Coalition of the Extorted’s pre-game build up in Kuwait and elsewhere. Do these genius lesson dropouts actually believe that a group of well coordinated near peer+++ adversaries are just going to sit back and watch? That would be potent cocktail of ignorance and denial. Keeping in mind that the USA just outsource almost it’s entire industrial base in the name of corporate profits, the phrase “With WHAT?!” Comes to mind. So pretty much all this StinkTank none sense is just bluster to convince .....who?
The US is going to have to work overtime to pull China into war. China's preparing, but also has a huge advantage of time that the US (with an impending financial collapse) does not. And during this time, China grows stronger militarily.
The Report is a window into the thinking of the West's leaders. In that case, you are way too kind to call them amateurs (the west's leaders).
Second, they are not amateurs, they are professionals whose very successful interest is in keeping the money train grift flowing into the MIC pockets. You are mistakenly thinking they are patriotic fools - again, way too kind. They are paid and paid well to advance this primary goal, and win the true war (more dollars for their benefactors) against other DC factions.
Its what happens in declining empires - feast off the dying corpse and jump ship before it sinks.
100% agree. Please don't mistake my use of the word 'amateur' as meaning anything more than 'amateurish' (probably should have used that word instead!).
They know full well what they're doing, and that their paychecks are based on their conformity.
Remember that for now the US can print unlimited money to bribe and buy whatever their crumbling society can't produce. Until the historic advantage they get from 80 years tradition running the printing press is exhausted, they will rely on their remaining advantage. You can see the effect in Pakistan and Armenia. One side works hard to produce something, the US prints money and buys it. It's literally that simple.
I think China and Russia plan to go slow until their enemies can no longer just buy what they produce. This will make the overproduction from China problematic but I think they're going to deal with that growing problem at a later date. Russia and China are pushing the West into the material economy which they vacated a few decades ago.
Katie Crombe - hot chick. Oops, that wasn't "woke", was it? Fuck it, I still want to do her - particularly since it's likely that's all she's good for in the Defense Department.
Basically everything you said here - albeit in more detail - boils down to what Andrei Martyanov says almost every day in a much shorter post: The West doesn't understand, has never fought, has never won, and can't win "real modern war." Period. End of story.
And yet, they're gonna try precisely because the leadership of the West lacks that understanding. And that's why we're headed directly for WWIII within the next 2-5 years, either against Russia, China or both.
How much damage Russia and China sustain isn't clear and mostly depends on 1) how well their air defenses work, and 2) how the war actually starts and evolves. What is clear is that the West will lose it and probably cease to exist as functioning states.
Nice how they have been rewarded with some blown pipelines, thus sealing their economic doom. The long game is a bit bleak, since they cannot even bother to replace their own populations. Ah well, so it goes...
This reminds me of a comment I heard a few years ago from Pravin Sawhney, an Indian military analyst from "Force" magazine (worth checking out, he's on YouTube). He said that the next big war (the one we are in now) will be fought in 6 major war fighting domains, the 3 old ones of Air, Land and Sea and the 3 new ones of, the EM spectrum, Space and Cyberspace (the one you are battling in now).
Some other points'
1) How bright an Army HQ will "glow" applies at sea as much as on land if not more so. All the internet speculation about if a Chinese hypersonic or anti-ship ballistic missile can hit a US Navy carrier would be made moot if it's constantly broadcasting its real time location. I just can't see how it can operate aircraft and remain radio silent. That alone would be a mission victory for the "Reds".
2) Even a limited draft in the USA would be a socio-political bomb that will explode in multiple directions. The semi-literate good ol' backwoods boys of previous generations will be premier special forces guys compared to some of the dysgenic mess that's coming down the pipeline today. The US military has recruited non-citizens before but only in limited numbers, drafting tens of thousands of Mexicans, Salvadoreans, Hondurans let alone Indians and Chinese will set off shock waves that will echo for generations. You can't be drafted if you're undocumented for one thing so that will have to be sorted out. This will apply all across NATO as well.
3) Millenium 7* has dropped another video and it's rather good.
According to Western and Ukrainian MSM, Russians have done the running out of missiles with such stubborn, monotonous repetitiveness, it just HAS to be one of their favourite pastimes.
They’re looking for a Pearl Harbor. FDR provoked it to pull the US out of economic malaise and to enter the war at the behest of the bankers and empire builders. Biden and co are tempted to the same. Of course the USA of 1940 is not that of 2023 militarily, economically, or socially.
I wouldn’t be so sanguine on hitting Russia proper especially with missiles and not the pin prick drones until now. The risk is not political instability or reduction in government popularity but increased demands of escalations either in Ukraine or outside of it. Asymmetric parallel responses are out of the public eye no matter how effective so they won’t register as much.
The three points of escalation only contain one that matters, hitting NATO territory. The first, if NATO troops are in Ukraine in any capacity they are fair game. That’s to be expected in a war zone and Russia already signaled that with respect to Poland. The second, downing a manned recon aircraft in the Black Sea is a step further than the unmanned they already did however depending on what happens right before (e.g. a strike on a military installation that causes real damage and assigning targeting and redirection functions that directly caused it) should give ample reason as these assets are part of the offense which makes them legitimate targets even outside Russia’s maritime borders.
Ultimately though I think Russia should, and has been, preparing for a direct conflict with NATO. Clearly the only path to saving Ukraine from total collapse is for NATO to directly get involved and Russia has been preparing for this since at least June 2022.
When you hear Russia designating clearly (officially) actions that would require a NATO territory response (i.e. new and unambiguous red lines) is when you know they are ready to destroy NATO’s army in direct conflict.
It would be a grave mistake for NATO to cross them.
Funny but I just mused that the Heritage Foundation's annual assessment of the US Military is usually published in October where it will very likely score lower than last year.
On the Public-Private Partnerships MIC ploy, that will never fly because of the outrageous amount of corruption endemic to what already exists. And the newly drafted soldiers will need weapons that work and many of them given the projected loss rate--weapons that work now mostly missing in action.
The main problem for NATO is that all this thinktank content is just schlock put out to justify them getting paid for decades of equally poor work.
These are... what's the favourite westoid appropriated Russian words? Ah right, apparatchiks. The system is rotten to the core, rife with bureaucracy and legacy money sucking staff. Their job isn't to come up with new strategies and insights. Their job is to create an ILLUSION of that work being completed.
Just a bunch of blather from the Stink Tanks. The US military is kaput. Which is a good thing for the world. It's all just a clown show. There won't be a draft. Western collapse is here and accelerating. Here's a senior Pentagon official who got arrested today for running a 20-year dog fighting ring. He's black, of course. https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/02/pentagon-official-accused-abusive-dogfighting-ring-2-decades-frederick-moorefield/
Michael Vick.
A quick demographic of those attending such events could be enlightening! Psychopaths with zero empathy, how many of his fellow workers though? Have we really progressed from the days of the Roman Coliseums?
Generally agree. Psychos can not be taught empathy. Not sure about now but was in USN and there were a lot of normal folks around. Nam was not a cake walk.
The stats for WWII vets had the average grunt facing around ten days of combat a year. In Viet Nam those guys humped for like 270 days a year.
When the sun went down the US lost their edge. The terrorist US became the victim. Not excusing My Lai, but things happen in a group that don't as individuals. This accounts for horrendous suicide rates among combat troops, my take. They can't live with what they have done, not a problem for psychos.
We need to move to new paradigms for solving the problems we face. War extracts a huge price. At the same time creating unheard of profit for those who start and fund them.
Remember North African civilians used by US Army soldiers in WWll using them as target practice. Sure he North Africans are grave robbers and scavengers just like their ancestors . Different strokes for different folks.
I wonder what most people would think if they were told bluntly about the 1620 Mayflower people robbing Indian graves. Even documenting it - analogous to "we dug up something like a grave"...
I agree. The officer class has been highly politicised and merit driven leadership destroyed. US now increasingly buying its own debt and the debt service costs are growing.. Waiting for both China and Japan to dump US treasuries.
CommuNazis infiltrated into the highest power structures of the U.S. Government. Blissfully unaware the U.S.S. Uncle Sam hit the Iceberg and there are no Life Jackets.
Fucking moron
Delusional krakkker
In recent months China and Japan HAVE dumped halt a trillion in US Treasuries. That's one factor in a deteriorating bond market leading to a serious credit crisis
Things aren't what they used to be? I doubt that they ever were.
Our most precious rare commodity, actual truth. Well if the tree huggers were at all credible you would think slowing down the rush to war would be on their radar.
No the most undeniable agenda seems to be reducing the population. The spoiled, degraded, controlled population of North America, top of list. The Nazi's are disgusted with what they have created. So is the creation, if suicide stats hold any water.
Well sure a draft unlike any we've ever seen. Transhuman chips, drugs for stamina, bravery and Loyalty? Perhaps the ultimate destination for all the immigrants showing up, sign up for the new GI bill, automatic citizenship if you live out your term. Not fuckin likely.
I saw that in Starship Troopers. ;O)
Not a tv or film guy, don't know your reference.
The grand vulgarian Paul Verhoeven based it on a book by Robert Heinlein but got so depressed reading the fascist drivel that he threw it away and made the film as a piss take. One of the conceits in the book is that 'service brings citizenship' rather than it being inherent. Quite a few US sci-fi aficionados seem to get excited by this idea but then, America is the place where the great lost leader Kennedy could say "And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country." which is (im)pure fascism and no-one noticed.
Take your medication, you fascist prick.
Climate denying racist AmeriNazi
China has been reducing U.S. Treasuries to the tune of $400 Billion over quite a few years.
U.S. Debt? Unpayable, except in counterfeited/printed money. Interest rates rising, a Bloodbath in Bonds.
The U.S. cannot finance a real war. And they know it.
Whoever is pulling Biden's strings, will eventually be hanged.
Exactly.
You also have the 'revised' figures scam, where US Treasury falsifies US economic data to represent that the economy is tracking in a positive direction, only to 'revise' it 3 months later, revealing the economy to be in very bad shape.
Biden and his thugs have been doing this repeatedly since they were 'inaugurated' in early 2021.
America has been a house of cards, managed by liars and con artists, for some time. The Biden Regime is the natural outcome.
The only fear I have is that some of the more ideological lunatics in DC don't actually know that the US is unable to finance a real war. They're so extreme and delusional (and dumb) that they don't understand what's going on, and instead believe America is invincible, exceptional and therefore immune from real world forces.
You do realize that everything in life is political, right?
Patronizing comment.
I assume you don't realize that
"My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize,"-Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.)
Well at least the military training that they DID get will greatly increase the effectiveness of their criminal enterprises so there’s that...
My mind wanders back to the halcyon days of the Iraq war where well established gangs would send their foot soldiers to the US military in order to get them up to snuff....
Lets hope this bully takes his beating with more grace than those two at Columbine. The combo of Nuke arsenal, old age and cozy cubby holes with all the 'comforts' they've 'earned', could be a bitter pill to swallow for us slaves.
Meaning what? He is not a member in good standing of the master race?
That's why the only real path out is energizing Western populations into accepting, or even better, agitating for total mobilization.
The problem is that Western populations have far more important things to focus on. I just saw a trio of articles which underline this:
1 in 20 UK children don't have a bed to sleep in
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/one-20-british-kids-forced-155743294.html
UK energy bills increasing, hurting poor households
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-01/uk-energy-bills-are-increasing-for-the-poorest-households
UK deploys jet to Poland and billions for AUKUS
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/uk-deploys-fighter-jets-in-poland-allocates-billions-to-auku
It would be laughable if there weren't so much real suffering.
I have explained that this blog has a freedom of speech policy. But that does not give you the right to: spam incessantly, particularly the same message over and over which begins to pollute the comments section and ruin the experience for others.
They will offer a relief for the suffering.
Similar to 2021, you can come out now if you get the shot....."that's good boys and girls, come on out now and get your shot.....you'll be able to play (eat, work, go on vakay) if you get the shot..."
Please stop spamming, particularly this Protocols nonsense. It was agitprop to start with and has gotten no better with time.
All you do is destroy your own credibility.
But then again, it is clear you are stupid and ignorant.
Agreed, but this is completely different than the approach that was originally used (and that failed).
At least anecdotally for me - the number of people who regretted following the diktats has also grown significantly.
These types of changes mean future such attempts will be far, far harder.
racist piece of shit krakkker
"Army War College Report Predicts Mass Casualties in Near-Peer Fight Against [Russia]"
AKA: NSA. No Shit Analysis.
"Peace is nice, peace is nice, peace is better than chicken and rice." Grr had the solution to our problems - https://youtu.be/7y4xU2e199o
If anything, the Report underestimates US casualties.
As Simplicius says, we haven't yet seen the Russian military at 100%. I doubt that they've even hit 35% of their full capability yet.
If the Americans were foolish enough to try and take on the Russians right now, I suspect the Russian response would simply devastate any US ground, air or sea assets involved.
Any American military asset gathered for such a purpose would be destroyed in less than 24 hours, so we would be looking at 20,000 casualties minimum in the first 48 hours, with far more in the subsequent 72 hours. It would be carnage.
I'd wager the first 24 hr's casualties would be at least 50K, maybe 100K. One would think there are hypersonics reserved for each and every US base (land, sea, & air) within 2,000 klms of Russia. That would include all of Europe, the MENA, Sth Korea, and Japan mainland and Okinawa.
No, the Russians will concentrate on the beast itself. The mainland US will essentially be gone within the first hour as will the nest of vipers in stolen Palestine.
Agree about striking the beast itself first, but the beast will not be found in the mainland US. Try The City of London and Basel Switzerland.
If you want to sort out all the bullies in the playground it pays to annihilate the biggest bully first. Who knows but when you do that the others may have the sense to have themselves and their enablers in government, the medical "profession", the police forces, the courts, the "royals" arrested, given fair trials and then imprisoned for life on some festering isle. Better to go to prison for the rest of your life than be annihilated just as easily and carelessly as the US was.
At that point all bets are off. The SCO could enter the chat, and there might be a consensus that goes something like this: The USA cannot and will not stop trying to subvert, dominate or destroy anyone that does not do it’s bidding, so it must be hit hard and fast to ensure that it does not get back up again. When 80%+ of the global populace is behind this, it makes a strong statement. (Feel free to swap ‘USA’ for whatever cabal related word that suits your world view).
Fortunately, I don't think anyone in Russia is that eager for MAD.
Ignorant stupidity never substitutes for good analysis - and your obvious lack of knowledge of reality makes it even worse.
Remember that it took the "Coalition of the Willing" six months to stage all of the military equipment and people they needed in Qatar to even begin to fight the first Gulf War. Then they bombed the shit out of Iraq for weeks to establish air superiority and killed a quarter of a million civilians as collateral casualties before their forces invaded the country. In a full on war in Ukraine, Russia will likely hit all of the NATO staging areas, logistics and assets it can see in Europe with precision weapons, never letting the West get organized enough to launch a full scale offensive. And the idea (need) to establish NATO air superiority? Feggetaboudit - ain't gonna happen.
Furthermore, the Collective West is deluded to think that NATO boots on the ground will be a gamechanger, let alone an escalation. The first wave of mobilized Ukrainian Armed Forces were a far more formidable force than the fat, woke, fragile, poorly trained NATO conscripts will be. Russia decimated Ukraine's best forces - purported to be the second most powerful army in Europe - in less than six months. Russian forces also have now gained nearly 2 years of direct combat experience in the Ukrainian theater. In a gloves off fight with NATO, it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for the West.
If gets to this point, or right before that point, there 1000s miles of pipelines in the coast of Texas and Lousiana. They could be targeted as pay back for NSII. Same treatment could be applied to the pipelines from Norway to Britain and (the recently completed) pipeline to Poland.
If they're bombing each other conventionally, those targets would be attacked out in the open. No need for Special Ops.
Google the pipeline maps on the gulf of Mexico. Its a huge network of pipes way past the 12 nautical miles. These attacks would dry the biggest oil refineries in the US.
You know it was many years ago when I was studying the history of conflicts ands such when I began to notice just how fragile and UN defended the USA actually is. Of course after WW2 as the RoW lay in smoldering ruins, and the USA was busy getting it’s meathooks into it’s “interests” why would you need something like a robust air defense. Judging by the reports, it aint all that hard to enter the US and it’s would be prudent to assume that if another nation saw fit to plant some DRG type units they wouldn’t have much difficulty. Heck over the past 3 years the number of food processing plants that have simply blown up is astounding. Heck two of them were hit by civilian aircraft! My point being, that the USA will have more than enough to deal with on the home front if NATO vs Russia goes hot.
If you arm Ukraine to hit targets of value deep inside Russia, with your weapons, with the blatant objective of toppling the government.
Idk what will be off limits in that case.
"Judging by the reports, it aint all that hard to enter the US" Massive understatement.
Seems Russia has figured out the US enough to not respond aggressively unless provoked.
When you overlook the tired and trite Unprovoked attack nonsense staying in a defensive mode is working quite well. These fantasies of retribution against mainland USA are tiresome. No one can do as much damage to the US as it is doing to itself.
Nahhh, just hit all the Netflix and Meta data centers. Game over!! 😆
The natural gas liquification ports have a lot of highly combustible stuff in them. So much, that a full tanker would go BOOM bigger than Hiroshima! There is one on the East Coast and one in the Gulf Coast. Either one and Russia could claim it is just America destroying more of Europe's vital energy supply infrastructure. All the better to exfiltrate the last wealth from Europe just as the continent sinks under immigration.
I think Russian planning has always envisaged a NATO confrontation.
Of course, NATO is Russia's main strategic enemy since WW2. Main war strategy always was about full scale war against NATO both conventional and nuclear. I think when Putin started SMO he already had a plan in case of war with NATO. USA was preparing for war with some insurgents for last 50 years while Russia was preparing for war with NATO)
What? You can't just have 50,000 men there in a flash to be annihilated. It doesn't work that way from such a distance.
If we got in a full blown war with russia, they'd launch their SSBN based nukes and wipe out both seaboards and all the major cities.
No, they wouldn't. The Russians are quite sane, while I can't say the same about the US leadership. The conflict would remain conventional for as long as possible.
The heads of the beast. City of London & DC/Virginia/Maryland.
Last summer Intel Slava Z mentioned that poseidon was designed specifically for London.
If you roll a tidal wave over London, the wave also goes the other way. Say goodbye to coastal Belgium, Netherlands, probably North West coast of Germany and west coast of Denmark too.
That is a very large chunk of heavily populated and low elevation Europe.
NATO headquarters would not likely survive, among other considerations.
Let's not go there, eh?
I love how when it becomes screamingly obvious to the rest of the world, they chime in...kinda the inverse of the canary in the coal mine. Who wants to be the last guy in the room looking at the brain trust’s PowerPoint anyway?
Either the "west," is going all Sun Tzu (appear weak, when one is strong) or Russia may feel the time is right to complete their SMO before the west learns new methods.
Knowing what is known, there are way too few Col. MacGregor's in the US military and too many woke retards, to coin a phrase.
These idiots have never read Sun Tzu. Count on it.
In fact they have no read much of anything. As Andrei Martyanov is always ranting, our elites have zero Kultur.
💯 They're too busy kissing ass to read a book.
Pretty much the entire RAND analysis is based on fundamental assumptions - Ru being a poor warfighter, and no match for NATO divisions should they enter the war.
This is why I keep saying Russia needs to DO something in terms of a significant battlefield success; not overwhelming, but enough to break the illusion these think tanks keep creating. Taking Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, whatever. If I'm Lindsey Graham reading this report, I am honestly wondering why the USAF just doesn't start bombing Russian positions directly.
Nothing is going to break the illusion of these think tanks, the rot has set in too deep, they are incompetent ideologues. Russia needs to do its own thing and not be pushed into rushing into something by people who do not have all the facts at hand. Significant battlefield success isn't killing 83K+ AFU in 4 months and making AFU offensive look stupid? Ah i see, they need to take territory for you to think they are being successful....
If the US thought it could get away with it and enter the war and destroy Russia they would have already. If they end up doing it anyways they will lose one way or another, and most likely we all lose, would probably be poetic justice for how stupid the human race has turned out to be.
Look at the moment all roads lead to nuclear war. A lot of that is due to perceived weakness or strength from one side to the other. Yes, my opinion is Russia needs to capture territory but the ultimate goal being changing perceptions or narratives. If that can be done another way, I'm ll for it
Russia has captured territory; 20% of Ukranie already. But you have been advised numerous times it's not about territory but still you persist. Why?
Because its my point of view. I think the current trajectory is one which will lead to a catastrophe. Lots of people - like you - say "its not about territory". What we are arguing is tactics in this case; Russia wants to win the war; you're saying they can do that by just sitting back and letting NATO/Ukraine impale themselves indefinitely. I'm saying that is not a winning strategy because it invites evermore escalation in terms of weapons systems and capabilities to the AFU.
The entire framework of the war in the West is about territory. The counteroffensive is about retaking territory. Their language of success is measured in meters. All I'm saying is if your enemy has brainwashed themselves into thinking that way, that it is not out of order to hand them a defeat on their own terms.
You won't listen, you won't learn. You are a troll. Or just pig ignorant.
Who gives a shit about their terms.
Yes, a lengthy conflict ensures the AFU gets new capabilities. I don't think it's realistic to expect that those capabilities will match the growth in Russian capabilities.
Unless the US comes up with something that actually does change the picture (a real breakthrough in munition production, some wonder weapon that actually is one, etc.) there is no real reason for Russia to engage in anything that could result in high losses.
As the weapons become deadlier and the tactics increasingly aggressive, and as Russia continues to show restraint, it is the West that will impale themselves on global opinion, showing themselves the crazed zealots they have become. I think Russia knows precisely where this will ultimately lead - to the dissolution of NATO and the bankruptcy of the Western alliance. As the aggression grows, so too will the divisions among NATO member states as the toll of the war crushes Western solidarity, resolve and their economies, especially as they see that no matter what they do Russia remains calmly committed to its goals - goals which I suspect have expanded from denazification and demilitarisation of just Ukraine to that of the entire Western alliance. This is all a game to the West, a game of increasing provocation in which they believe in the end Russia will back down at last rather than face the fury of NATO which they unfailingly see in their own Hollywood-induced delusional state, as all-powerful and against which no sane country would dare stand. Russia, on the other hand, perceives this for what it really is, an direct assault on their very existence as a sovereign state, and as such they will engage the west to the end knowing that at the end of it all there will be a world with free Russia or no world at all.
The idea that Western aggression will turn global opinion against them is a laugh.
Opinion is on the side of whoever is perceived to be the winner.
Getting caught up in your enemy's game is like putting your Queen at risk in chess. You really don't want to do that. Force the enemy to your game.
Ru certainly did that by NOT doing a winter offensive, contrary to the predictions of many. And then in their "active defense" they confounded observers again - the same likes of Ritter and Macgregor and such, who expected a different sort of scenario playing out.
We will see what comes next, once this never ending counteroffensive is over
@Bash
The idea of choosing military strategy & tactics to validate an opponent's (now largely invalid) assumptions & preconceptions about what "victory" looks like is irrelevant, outside of online Twittercentric warfare.
I would agree in terms of battlefield realities. However, in the political space - where I believe warfare extends - it matters. Remember how everyone was for the Iraq war, till they were against it.
Somebody must to kill all the nazis which materialized in Ukraine in past 30 years. If you think it's exaggeration all you need to do is to find current Ukrainian textbooks (plenty online) and google translate it. Beware and welcome to abyss. Ditto Ukrainian summer camps for kids and what they teach there. Normal countries don't call streets leading to the site of mass murder with the name of a person who orchestrated said mass murder. Ukraine does.
If Russia acts swiftly, as you propose, then in the end you need to accept idea of mass executions, Nuremberg style. Will you accept that idea? If not, be patient and let Russia do the killing. Even if it leads to heightened WW3 risk.
To win a conflict you have to apply pressure until your opponent gives up or is subdued. In war that means offensive military actions. The destruction that Russia has caused on defense has been impressive, but it doesn't put any pressure on Ukraine to submit. It simply makes them look for additional options. Maybe not today, but at some point Russia will be required to take a decisive action and demonstrate that there are no options remaining for Ukraine.
There remains another option that few are discussing at this point - Ukraine's unconditional surrender. How that comes about would be through a military coup by some Ukrainian generals who seeing the futility of the war and the continued slaughter of their troops would overthrow Z and his "Not Sees", purge the military of those units and submit to the mercy of Russia. In such a case I can well envision NATO gnashing its teeth in helpless frustration.
I am sure that to a military man a coup is a very hard thing to execute as loyalty and obedience to the civilian authorities is an integral part of their service to their country. It would take a lot of courage and resolve to drive through something like that in Ukraine. And perhaps they are close to that point. We shall see.
This is a NEED to NOT rush. A working strategy is a working strategy. A minor, but not insignificant, difference (and the thrust of Simplicus's article.
Russia appears to be applying plenty of pressure to me, and why would Russia look a gift horse in the mouth and not accept the vaporisation of the AFU by destroying them on the defence and taking minimal casualties themselves and then going on the offense when they are weakened. For sure i assume Russia will take offensive actions, but at a time of their choosing, they aren't marching to a timeline to what people on the internet would like them to do. I mean most people here all want them to win decisively and see the grip of the hegemon loosened but we do not have all the data to be able to say what is the best options for them to take. Look at Ukraine, pressured to go on the offensive when it is not in their best interests and being destroyed, luckily Russia is not pressured to go on an offensive until they deem the time is right.
I explicitly said it didn't have to be today. IE on a timeline. I just was making the point that this won't end until they do.
Well that's not entirely true, there are possibilities for it ending without a Russian offensive, however small, they are still possibilities that need to be mapped.
As far as i can tell, you explicitly stating that it doesn't have to be today doesn't invalidate the comments i have made. Anyways we seem to be in some rough agreement on the matter with slightly different perspectives, and i don't see much point in delving further down the pedantic road. I believe we have both clearly made our points known.
Every conscript sent to walk out into a minefield is one less guy the AFU have to sit in a hidden trench and wait to ambush Russian troops.
Or deploy as reinforcements to plug the gaps to prevent a Russian breakthrough. Or deploy as a reaction force to cut the flanks of a Russian breakthrough.
Like it or not, the Russians can only push fast and deep if they deplete the defenders first. If Ukraine has no troops to man the trenches, no artillery shells to punish Russian sappers and breach teams.
Imagine not waiting for this offensive, and launching a spearhead attack with an 80k strong army ready to cut you off.
The problem with this argument f it can be called such is that it fails to take into account several underlying factors.
The USA & Friends staged a coup in 2014, installed a “government” and proceeded to fuel a war.
Russia observed all of this, lent a hand to a degree and has no illusions about what the handlers have in mind for them as a nation and people.
Every single “option” so far has been direct by, donated by, and generally mismanaged by the above mentioned interlopers.
So from the get-go Ukraine has been burning through “options” sponsored largely by the above handlers, and they are clearly running out.
So what’s this phantasmal set of “options” that will be revealed if the Russian military does not giddyUP?
I’m sure Russia will undertake offensive military actions. At the time of its choosing, based on its analysis of the situation. I assume that the time it will choose is going to be based on the weakness of the Ukrainian military / state and Russia’s strength.
Spring 2024 after a winter of pressure across the whole front and rear seems like a reasonable timeframe.
Nicely put. I’ve grown a tad bit weary of the concern trolling about how Russia isnt doing BigArrow pushes and has thus stalled or just doesnt have it in them. STFU already.
You voice your opinion/point of view like it has any positive merit.
It does not.
It is informed by an ignorance of facts only matched by Western Media.
Russia is DOING things that are having EXTREME success on the battlefield, both tactically and strategically. Obliterating the Ukraine "counter-offensive" in front of the "Surovikin Line" has sent shockwaves throughout NATO.
WHICH IS THE WHOLE F@$KING POINT OF THE ARTICLE YOU HAVE MADE YOUR IDIOT COMMENT ON!!
I don't get the hostility, really, to hearing a viewpoint that you don't agree with. Don't have time for it. I would happily make my argument to someone over a beer at a bar and nobody would lose their shit over it, whereas your response would land you on your ass. Goodbye.
Seems there's one (NiggleS) in every comment section: a self-appointed arbiter of the acceptable.
Yeah he “glossed over” that somehow...
Think
Tank
.......mmmmYeah-No.
My money is on this ending in a whimper and not a bang. The West may be delusional but it is also cowardly.
@Bash
Lindsey Graham can't remember how to tie his shoes most mornings.
Although I see your point, the passage of time is very useful when getting a point across. Despite NAFO trolls, the MSM AgitProp mills, and a highly opinionated but under-informed public Russia continues to not GAF (give-A-fhaak) what they think. And they do this consistently as they continue the path they have chosen seemingly unperturbed by the constant provocation. To the slightly more informed observer this stance garners considerably more respect than the constant screeching and backpedaling coming from the opposition. The longer this dynamic persists, they greater heft it accrues. Plus the fact that you can only lie over and over again for so long before people just stop listening, which is precisely why the western MSM has been given marching orders to pivot the narrative. It’s on the cover of the Rothschild Economist FFS!
There is a weird bifurcation happening for sure. On one hand, we have (thankfully) substack, Elon's X, and other platforms where the truth gets out. But then we have Politico saying "its complicated" on Nazis, and a standing ovation to a living member of the SS in parliament. I have never been so ashamed to be Canadian.
Why?
If the enemy insists on underestimating you - only a fool feels the need to correct this misconception.
Results, not ego.
They don't need to. They crushing Ukraine with 5+ to 1 ratio and West still sees Russia weak. Traditionally, anything above 1.3 to 1 is a crushing victory, yet we have horse with blinders on - it's hopeless. No amount of demonstration will change that. Only direct participation will become a wake up call
Excellent overview, thanks.
With 77% undraftable it makes you wonder about the other 23%. What percentage of those will disqualify themselves? And; where is the competence to run the industrial part of any war? Nobody seems to be doing the math.
And the kicker to that 23% number is that THOSE are the people who are also the best fit for the heavy work needed to produce war materiel...
The obese and unfit won't be building tanks, or making ammunition...
Right you are…and just who is it who is going to merely keep the country running at all if we are sending our best people for cannon fodder ? It is already nearly impossible for businesses to find anyone competent enough to hire.
In addition, that draftable 23% is unlikely to be spread homogeneously throughout the country but more localised geographically and in different socioeconomic strata. So, any draft would fall much more heavily on some sections of US society, with serious pushback from them.
And, of course, it excludes women, who are supposed to "be able to do anything a man can do, but better", and who are competing with men for positions throughout the economy and will get even more advantage when competent and fit men are conscripted and forced to lose career time.
In truth, it may be that even less than 23% is draftable, given that adapting to modern war conditions will put a premium on people able to think for themselves and deal with complex problems and technology. Given the abysmal education standards in US Democrat controlled cities, not many young blacks will meet the real education requirement even if they meet the physical requirements. Downgrading standards is one thing when you are not going to war. For a wartime army it is a guarantee that a much higher proportion of your army will get killed.
A big part of that 23% that is mentally and physically fit and with a clean police record is white Christian males - the same demographic that the government says is a domestic far-right terrorist threat. Article: Devastating Military Recruitment in 2024 https://identitydixie.com/2023/09/07/devastating-military-recruitment-in-2024/
and there is no conflict between the two. As Afghans, Iraqis, and going back Koreans and Mexicans can testify, the best far right terrorist, decedents of slave patrol, Chinamen lynch-ers are useful inflicting terror on those "other" people, so the system keeps on breeding them. Never know when it will be useful to have the black-shirts operating "again" in the USA. Just as long as they don't go killing puppies. https://archive.org/details/wtf-us-marine-throws-puppy-off-cliff-dailymotion-video-manifest
This is a curious response - if it is true that the best and the better part of the recruitable demographic for the necessary conscription in order for the US to win any overseas war against others than smallish groups of 'terrorists' in third world countries......
How can it be that the very same are identified as 'domestic far-right terrorists' and so presumably the subject of consequent repression, criminalisation, surveillance and surpression
This puts the US in a bind - their only efficient for foreign warfighting population is one the US is intent on waging domestic war on
My my - feels like a tizzy
Besides is it not their ynak ruling class which practices slavery and so on?
Perhaps one can conscript them, if no one else will do
Assume you are familiar with what the black-shirts(capitalist friendly Nazis) did to the brown-shirts (socialist friendly Nazis) and it just slipped your mind. If not, then it's a good item to study.
Remind me - which were the fat ones? or... did they not do obese back in that day
Fast forward to the present - looks like no body's going to be killing nobody in your world
But you can always bore them to death on the internet
I should have guesses from the grammar in your first comment. You'll go far in life.
Gerrard - Reading the responses, and knowing people who think and talk like him in real life, who are always blaming "Y-T" for their shortcomings and self-inflicted problems (see numbers of weekly Chicago murders to see who is killing who currently in the streets of U.S. cities) and seeing the violence that can be unleashed on lone "Y-T's" who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time or not follow proper security precautions for fear of being called a racist...
Maybe the capacity to perform serious industrial scale violence to solve a problem once it goes on long enough / gets big enough - is a feature, not a bug.
THE WRATH OF THE AWAKENED SAXON
by Rudyard Kipling
It was not part of their blood,
It came to them very late,
With long arrears to make good,
When the Saxon began to hate.
They were not easily moved,
They were icy -- willing to wait
Till every count should be proved,
Ere the Saxon began to hate.
Their voices were even and low.
Their eyes were level and straight.
There was neither sign nor show
When the Saxon began to hate.
It was not preached to the crowd.
It was not taught by the state.
No man spoke it aloud
When the Saxon began to hate.
It was not suddently bred.
It will not swiftly abate.
Through the chilled years ahead,
When Time shall count from the date
That the Saxon began to hate.
@Wendy
Thank you for this reminder that reconstruction was in no way radical enough.
The 23% will hike it South to Mexico.
The border works both ways.
The 23% are hated by the fascist regime running the USA, by both R's and D's. They wont fight. Antifa and BLM will have to take their place with the wahmyns and the trans special forces taking up the rear.
My son is a little old for draft 31 but just in case we got his passport up-to-date and about 20K in a central American bank. No way I'm letting my only die for these neocon crazies...I would say go to Russia but whole nothern hemi gets wasted in WW3. Southern hemi is not a threat.
I moved out of Canada down to SE Asia to get away from the woke and the fascists..Not sure what else to call them. The classic definition of fascism is the govt and corporations teaming up to oppress people. Thats my country now. Mental health wise my country is garbage. Covid broke people.
Your a smart man and great father. If there is a decent sized nuclear exchange you are correct it will take a long time for the radiation to make it way to southern South America in particular. Argentina and Uruguay are as good as i can find on the planet. Uruguay looks good just to retire in peace.
I hope no one shows up to the neocon's war. They should lead the charge themselves. That would be poetic justice and that would be my punishment for them. The pay per views of Victoria Nuland getting shot at could go to help the rebuilding effort or to the children of Donbas
The neocons need to be publicly humiliated then put down like the vicious dogs they are.
If shit hits the fan, South will not help. While, apparently, 'nuclear winter' is largely myth, radiation is real and it will hit everything. We only have one atmosphere.
It's not just lack of people. What about meat and potatoes (armor and ammunition)? Why the heck Russia produces more of it, than whole West combined? That's much bigger problem , because you can press gang the people like Ukraine does, it doesn't work like that with materiel
I think Nafo has painted itself into a corner here. They clearly cannot escalate directly; the main forces in nafo (USA, UK) are so casualty averse as to be considered incapable of actually fighting a war. The only likely proxies are Poland, Baltics, and Romania and their armies combined are smaller and less well-armed than Ukraine was at the start of the war. Besides, that opens a particularly dangerous can of political worms that I doubt the Nafos have the stones to open. Perhaps a few of the Russian-derived jews who make up a large portion of the war faction want this, but I think there are enough non-insane, non-Russian jews and gentiles within the power structure to prevent this.
The only tangible option is, as you said: giving Ukraine longer range weapons. But what weapons? Any that might be given have been made in such tiny quantities that their effect would be minimal (storm shadow anyone?) and the lead-time necessary to train Ukes or to get nafo mercs to use them would be so long as to further negate their effectiveness.
One has to wonder why these supposedly smart and perceptive people have absolutely no ability to foresee or even consider possible second and third order effects resulting from decisions and actions. It reminds me of the old "stonks" meme. Provoke war ---> Stonks! Seriously, just on the COIN stuff alone I, as a dumb college student, could clearly see how stupid Rumsfeld's ideas were 20 years ago and how they would lead to a crippling of the US military and what an unmitigated strategic disaster would unfold from the GWOT. It is actually funny to watch how each of their decisions further limits, narrows, and degrades their subsequent choices until they are left with nothing but "end game."
Sometimes i am left scratching my head: can they really BE that dumb?
I know. It hurts the head. But yes, they really are that dumb. US sponsored coup in Ukraine to start. It backfires and Russia takes Crimea and kicks off a civil war in the Donbas. Then the west pretends to support the Minsk agreements so it has time to arm and train the neonazis. US provokes Russia into attacking, hoping to draw Russia into a quagmire. It backfires again, sactions hurt the west but not Russia, Ukraine is a quagmire for the west. Net result, the decline of American hegemony is greatly accelerated instead of forestalled. They really are that dumb.
Pride & lust for power strikes people blind.
Sick of all this war porn. One wonders where we'd be if they all were to use their energies for positive (not woke) change and the good of humanity. We are obviously still a planet full of crazy monkies brandishing jawbones.
England behind all this push for war - the rich Jews and zionists that is. War to the last Ukrainian and then bring in the cannon fodder from UKUS
I continue to wonder why people feel the need to introduce ethnicity into this discussion. Ethnicity doesn’t dictate the need for power and greed. And frankly, there are far more ‘Protestants and Catholics’ involved in this issue, but no one discusses them.
"Jewishness" is not an ethnicity. Do keep up.
It is, whether you accept it or not. Look up the definition
Yet another insightful post.
I note that the 'Army War College' Report totally glosses over 2 critical problems that face the United States right now:
#1 Russia's game changing development of new weapons, based on secret breakthroughs in advanced physics.
Not just offensive (eg manoeuvrable hypersonics) but also defensive systems (eg lasers)..
The advantage Russia enjoys in this area is exponential. The returns accelerate the longer the competition (America) fails to understand the physics behind these weapons.
To crack this will require a genius to emerge in the United States (ie pure luck), or a revolution in the American education system, which is in ruins. Even then it's debatable whether the Americans can ever catch up.
#2 America's poor / non existent military industrial capacity. Right now America can't sustain a major war against Russia, let alone China and certainly not Russia/China combined, for more than a few weeks.
Building this capacity would take years, and would be based on fossil fuels. It would require abandoning pretty much the entire global warming/climate change project.
By failing to include these two factors, the Report is pretty much meaningless drivel, consistent with the amateurs who seem to have written it.
Great points. I would also say that if/when the US pivots to war with China, it's going to discover that it's confronting China + Russia + Iran + North Korea, who have formed an unbreakable anti-hegemonic alliance. It may be presented as a China/US war on paper, but China's allies will be in the background providing material and other support as China needs it. Just as the other three countries are doing the same for Russia now. The neocon wet dream of a US led unipolar world has become an unattainable pipe dream as karma strikes as payback for its 70+ years of abusing the world.
It is difficult to imagine what a traditional war between China and the US would look like. Neither is capable of launching an invasion on the territory of the other. So other than long range missile strikes and sinking large floating targets what are we left with?
The war will remain asymmetric, as it is now. Even there, the US must realize after observing the effects in Russia and Iran, that sanctions will hurt themselves even more.
You seem to assume that such a war would be confined to the coast of China when you mention "floating targets". However, I believe both Russia and China are now prepared to take their missile attacks to the shores of the USA itself, having the capability to strike deep within the continent. I believe they have both expressed in the past that the US's traditional belief that their homeland can not be realistically touched is no longer valid.
VVP has said it and I’d wager that China has heavily implied it. You wanted a deterrent? Well here’ya a GO!
You're missing the biggest point China doesn't want to invade America, China won't try & invade America. There's only 1 aggressor looking for conflict. China has a totally defensive force to protect itself. America has to travel halfway around the world to attack China. How is it logistically going to do that? It's American politicians & their fantasy world that they live in that talk up war with China . No rational person would ever dream of it. The Chinese are fully aware that America is ruled by psychopaths. So they're arming themselves accordingly. It's absolute insanity that American politicians are talking openly about confronting China. They haven't even got a reason to be upset with the Chinese, they come outwith the same bullshit lies they say about Russia but there's only one aggressor looking for conflict & making confrontational policies.
"It's American politicians & their fantasy world that they live in that talk up war with China. No rational person would ever dream of it. "
It's not insane at all, it's just criminal. If we go on assuming it's just insanity talking then we can't address it. If I wasn't so damn busy and lazy, then I'd look up where else I wrote this, but all of this is just capitalism writ large. The MIC must grow it's return, every year, or it is a failure as far as capitalism is concerned. That's why it is dangerous to let capitalism run the arms industry, they have to keep increasing the threat in order to keep increasing the spending. Space Aliens are being lined up for the day when the USA has guns pointing at South America, Balance of North America, Africa, Asia, and of course the EU. It's the last point of growth in spending.
You make valid points. It’s all very well and good in some candy assed think tank talking theoretical but as I like to say: Metal Talks and BullShit Walks. Someone earlier the Coalition of the Extorted’s pre-game build up in Kuwait and elsewhere. Do these genius lesson dropouts actually believe that a group of well coordinated near peer+++ adversaries are just going to sit back and watch? That would be potent cocktail of ignorance and denial. Keeping in mind that the USA just outsource almost it’s entire industrial base in the name of corporate profits, the phrase “With WHAT?!” Comes to mind. So pretty much all this StinkTank none sense is just bluster to convince .....who?
Themselves I suppose, the figure of 3,600 is total fantasy also. It would be far higher.
The US is going to have to work overtime to pull China into war. China's preparing, but also has a huge advantage of time that the US (with an impending financial collapse) does not. And during this time, China grows stronger militarily.
The Report is a window into the thinking of the West's leaders. In that case, you are way too kind to call them amateurs (the west's leaders).
Second, they are not amateurs, they are professionals whose very successful interest is in keeping the money train grift flowing into the MIC pockets. You are mistakenly thinking they are patriotic fools - again, way too kind. They are paid and paid well to advance this primary goal, and win the true war (more dollars for their benefactors) against other DC factions.
Its what happens in declining empires - feast off the dying corpse and jump ship before it sinks.
100% agree. Please don't mistake my use of the word 'amateur' as meaning anything more than 'amateurish' (probably should have used that word instead!).
They know full well what they're doing, and that their paychecks are based on their conformity.
Remember that for now the US can print unlimited money to bribe and buy whatever their crumbling society can't produce. Until the historic advantage they get from 80 years tradition running the printing press is exhausted, they will rely on their remaining advantage. You can see the effect in Pakistan and Armenia. One side works hard to produce something, the US prints money and buys it. It's literally that simple.
I think China and Russia plan to go slow until their enemies can no longer just buy what they produce. This will make the overproduction from China problematic but I think they're going to deal with that growing problem at a later date. Russia and China are pushing the West into the material economy which they vacated a few decades ago.
One has to wonder what happens when the shopkeep says “You’re money’s no good here”...
I always knew you can’t win a war when you’re only eating hamburgers.
Katie Crombe - hot chick. Oops, that wasn't "woke", was it? Fuck it, I still want to do her - particularly since it's likely that's all she's good for in the Defense Department.
Basically everything you said here - albeit in more detail - boils down to what Andrei Martyanov says almost every day in a much shorter post: The West doesn't understand, has never fought, has never won, and can't win "real modern war." Period. End of story.
And yet, they're gonna try precisely because the leadership of the West lacks that understanding. And that's why we're headed directly for WWIII within the next 2-5 years, either against Russia, China or both.
How much damage Russia and China sustain isn't clear and mostly depends on 1) how well their air defenses work, and 2) how the war actually starts and evolves. What is clear is that the West will lose it and probably cease to exist as functioning states.
Western nations have been quick to relinquish their sovereignty to Washington so when the US crumbles so will they. Sad but true.
Nice how they have been rewarded with some blown pipelines, thus sealing their economic doom. The long game is a bit bleak, since they cannot even bother to replace their own populations. Ah well, so it goes...
Another very fine piece of work Simplicius.
This reminds me of a comment I heard a few years ago from Pravin Sawhney, an Indian military analyst from "Force" magazine (worth checking out, he's on YouTube). He said that the next big war (the one we are in now) will be fought in 6 major war fighting domains, the 3 old ones of Air, Land and Sea and the 3 new ones of, the EM spectrum, Space and Cyberspace (the one you are battling in now).
Some other points'
1) How bright an Army HQ will "glow" applies at sea as much as on land if not more so. All the internet speculation about if a Chinese hypersonic or anti-ship ballistic missile can hit a US Navy carrier would be made moot if it's constantly broadcasting its real time location. I just can't see how it can operate aircraft and remain radio silent. That alone would be a mission victory for the "Reds".
2) Even a limited draft in the USA would be a socio-political bomb that will explode in multiple directions. The semi-literate good ol' backwoods boys of previous generations will be premier special forces guys compared to some of the dysgenic mess that's coming down the pipeline today. The US military has recruited non-citizens before but only in limited numbers, drafting tens of thousands of Mexicans, Salvadoreans, Hondurans let alone Indians and Chinese will set off shock waves that will echo for generations. You can't be drafted if you're undocumented for one thing so that will have to be sorted out. This will apply all across NATO as well.
3) Millenium 7* has dropped another video and it's rather good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrkdKVolikI
Ukraine: Russia Run out of missiles! Answer, no it won't, it may slow down it's attacks, but it's military power is growing not shrinking.
4) Peace be with you, good luck and keep up the good work.
According to Western and Ukrainian MSM, Russians have done the running out of missiles with such stubborn, monotonous repetitiveness, it just HAS to be one of their favourite pastimes.
The Iraq war saw green card soldier in significant numbers, as well as mass graves to match.
They’re looking for a Pearl Harbor. FDR provoked it to pull the US out of economic malaise and to enter the war at the behest of the bankers and empire builders. Biden and co are tempted to the same. Of course the USA of 1940 is not that of 2023 militarily, economically, or socially.
I wouldn’t be so sanguine on hitting Russia proper especially with missiles and not the pin prick drones until now. The risk is not political instability or reduction in government popularity but increased demands of escalations either in Ukraine or outside of it. Asymmetric parallel responses are out of the public eye no matter how effective so they won’t register as much.
The three points of escalation only contain one that matters, hitting NATO territory. The first, if NATO troops are in Ukraine in any capacity they are fair game. That’s to be expected in a war zone and Russia already signaled that with respect to Poland. The second, downing a manned recon aircraft in the Black Sea is a step further than the unmanned they already did however depending on what happens right before (e.g. a strike on a military installation that causes real damage and assigning targeting and redirection functions that directly caused it) should give ample reason as these assets are part of the offense which makes them legitimate targets even outside Russia’s maritime borders.
Ultimately though I think Russia should, and has been, preparing for a direct conflict with NATO. Clearly the only path to saving Ukraine from total collapse is for NATO to directly get involved and Russia has been preparing for this since at least June 2022.
When you hear Russia designating clearly (officially) actions that would require a NATO territory response (i.e. new and unambiguous red lines) is when you know they are ready to destroy NATO’s army in direct conflict.
It would be a grave mistake for NATO to cross them.
D'accord on all points you made.
Funny but I just mused that the Heritage Foundation's annual assessment of the US Military is usually published in October where it will very likely score lower than last year.
On the Public-Private Partnerships MIC ploy, that will never fly because of the outrageous amount of corruption endemic to what already exists. And the newly drafted soldiers will need weapons that work and many of them given the projected loss rate--weapons that work now mostly missing in action.
The main problem for NATO is that all this thinktank content is just schlock put out to justify them getting paid for decades of equally poor work.
These are... what's the favourite westoid appropriated Russian words? Ah right, apparatchiks. The system is rotten to the core, rife with bureaucracy and legacy money sucking staff. Their job isn't to come up with new strategies and insights. Their job is to create an ILLUSION of that work being completed.
And that's really what NATO is all about now.
Exactly, the think tanks only provide thoughts about maintaining and justifying the status quo