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To win a conflict you have to apply pressure until your opponent gives up or is subdued. In war that means offensive military actions. The destruction that Russia has caused on defense has been impressive, but it doesn't put any pressure on Ukraine to submit. It simply makes them look for additional options. Maybe not today, but at some …
To win a conflict you have to apply pressure until your opponent gives up or is subdued. In war that means offensive military actions. The destruction that Russia has caused on defense has been impressive, but it doesn't put any pressure on Ukraine to submit. It simply makes them look for additional options. Maybe not today, but at some point Russia will be required to take a decisive action and demonstrate that there are no options remaining for Ukraine.
There remains another option that few are discussing at this point - Ukraine's unconditional surrender. How that comes about would be through a military coup by some Ukrainian generals who seeing the futility of the war and the continued slaughter of their troops would overthrow Z and his "Not Sees", purge the military of those units and submit to the mercy of Russia. In such a case I can well envision NATO gnashing its teeth in helpless frustration.
I am sure that to a military man a coup is a very hard thing to execute as loyalty and obedience to the civilian authorities is an integral part of their service to their country. It would take a lot of courage and resolve to drive through something like that in Ukraine. And perhaps they are close to that point. We shall see.
And the SBU would have people assigned to all high ranking officers. The suspicion and paranoia must be huge.
This is a NEED to NOT rush. A working strategy is a working strategy. A minor, but not insignificant, difference (and the thrust of Simplicus's article.
Russia appears to be applying plenty of pressure to me, and why would Russia look a gift horse in the mouth and not accept the vaporisation of the AFU by destroying them on the defence and taking minimal casualties themselves and then going on the offense when they are weakened. For sure i assume Russia will take offensive actions, but at a time of their choosing, they aren't marching to a timeline to what people on the internet would like them to do. I mean most people here all want them to win decisively and see the grip of the hegemon loosened but we do not have all the data to be able to say what is the best options for them to take. Look at Ukraine, pressured to go on the offensive when it is not in their best interests and being destroyed, luckily Russia is not pressured to go on an offensive until they deem the time is right.
I explicitly said it didn't have to be today. IE on a timeline. I just was making the point that this won't end until they do.
Well that's not entirely true, there are possibilities for it ending without a Russian offensive, however small, they are still possibilities that need to be mapped.
As far as i can tell, you explicitly stating that it doesn't have to be today doesn't invalidate the comments i have made. Anyways we seem to be in some rough agreement on the matter with slightly different perspectives, and i don't see much point in delving further down the pedantic road. I believe we have both clearly made our points known.
Every conscript sent to walk out into a minefield is one less guy the AFU have to sit in a hidden trench and wait to ambush Russian troops.
Or deploy as reinforcements to plug the gaps to prevent a Russian breakthrough. Or deploy as a reaction force to cut the flanks of a Russian breakthrough.
Like it or not, the Russians can only push fast and deep if they deplete the defenders first. If Ukraine has no troops to man the trenches, no artillery shells to punish Russian sappers and breach teams.
Imagine not waiting for this offensive, and launching a spearhead attack with an 80k strong army ready to cut you off.
The problem with this argument f it can be called such is that it fails to take into account several underlying factors.
The USA & Friends staged a coup in 2014, installed a “government” and proceeded to fuel a war.
Russia observed all of this, lent a hand to a degree and has no illusions about what the handlers have in mind for them as a nation and people.
Every single “option” so far has been direct by, donated by, and generally mismanaged by the above mentioned interlopers.
So from the get-go Ukraine has been burning through “options” sponsored largely by the above handlers, and they are clearly running out.
So what’s this phantasmal set of “options” that will be revealed if the Russian military does not giddyUP?
I’m sure Russia will undertake offensive military actions. At the time of its choosing, based on its analysis of the situation. I assume that the time it will choose is going to be based on the weakness of the Ukrainian military / state and Russia’s strength.
Spring 2024 after a winter of pressure across the whole front and rear seems like a reasonable timeframe.