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I think Nafo has painted itself into a corner here. They clearly cannot escalate directly; the main forces in nafo (USA, UK) are so casualty averse as to be considered incapable of actually fighting a war. The only likely proxies are Poland, Baltics, and Romania and their armies combined are smaller and less well-armed than Ukraine was a…
I think Nafo has painted itself into a corner here. They clearly cannot escalate directly; the main forces in nafo (USA, UK) are so casualty averse as to be considered incapable of actually fighting a war. The only likely proxies are Poland, Baltics, and Romania and their armies combined are smaller and less well-armed than Ukraine was at the start of the war. Besides, that opens a particularly dangerous can of political worms that I doubt the Nafos have the stones to open. Perhaps a few of the Russian-derived jews who make up a large portion of the war faction want this, but I think there are enough non-insane, non-Russian jews and gentiles within the power structure to prevent this.
The only tangible option is, as you said: giving Ukraine longer range weapons. But what weapons? Any that might be given have been made in such tiny quantities that their effect would be minimal (storm shadow anyone?) and the lead-time necessary to train Ukes or to get nafo mercs to use them would be so long as to further negate their effectiveness.
One has to wonder why these supposedly smart and perceptive people have absolutely no ability to foresee or even consider possible second and third order effects resulting from decisions and actions. It reminds me of the old "stonks" meme. Provoke war ---> Stonks! Seriously, just on the COIN stuff alone I, as a dumb college student, could clearly see how stupid Rumsfeld's ideas were 20 years ago and how they would lead to a crippling of the US military and what an unmitigated strategic disaster would unfold from the GWOT. It is actually funny to watch how each of their decisions further limits, narrows, and degrades their subsequent choices until they are left with nothing but "end game."
Sometimes i am left scratching my head: can they really BE that dumb?
I know. It hurts the head. But yes, they really are that dumb. US sponsored coup in Ukraine to start. It backfires and Russia takes Crimea and kicks off a civil war in the Donbas. Then the west pretends to support the Minsk agreements so it has time to arm and train the neonazis. US provokes Russia into attacking, hoping to draw Russia into a quagmire. It backfires again, sactions hurt the west but not Russia, Ukraine is a quagmire for the west. Net result, the decline of American hegemony is greatly accelerated instead of forestalled. They really are that dumb.
Pride & lust for power strikes people blind.