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The cost associated with their "investment" is commonly referred to as "until the last Ukrainian". It's colossal. I'm not just talking about manpower losses, but split families, widows. None of that is concerning our EU leaders.
In addition to that we have irrepairable, in the short term at least, damage to power generators and infrastruc…
The cost associated with their "investment" is commonly referred to as "until the last Ukrainian". It's colossal. I'm not just talking about manpower losses, but split families, widows. None of that is concerning our EU leaders.
In addition to that we have irrepairable, in the short term at least, damage to power generators and infrastructure. The damage is in hundreds of billions.
One has to wonder, at what point will the cost of repairing Ukraine outweight the potential benefits. I think eventually EU will conclude, that they are better off letting Russia deal with the consequences of the damage as it will further require massive investments from Russia.
I'm particularly curious what would happen to Ukraine's external debt if Russia absorbed entire Ukraine (unlikely I think)? Would EU transfer the debt onto new landlord (Russia) and use it as an excuse never to return frozen Russian assets? Just a food for thought.
Russia is going to take all of Ukraine. They have to.
Russia has no choice in the matter. The United States lies (see Minsk II). Zelinsky is now an illegitimate leader. Neither can be trusted. So, with whom is Russia supposed to negotiate a meaningful peace with -- a liar or a liar, a professional grifter and moocher, and a despot? Not much of a choice.
If Russia does not take all of the Ukraine the United States will declare victory, having moved NATO borders that much closer to Russia. Russia will never hear the end of it. The proxy war will never end.
If Russia takes all of Ukraine, then all that aid, all those loans, all that "investment" will be lost. Who is the United States, its vassal states, and companies like Blackrock, supposed to see about getting their money back? Who are they supposed to collect from? Not Russia. Russia will demand the immediate return of their seized assets, $350-billion dollars, plus interest. And even then, Russia would be completely justified with telling the West to "Buzz off."
The human cost is irrelevant.
Over 6 million refugees are reported as having fled Ukraine, and are recorded in places all across Europe. An estimated 8 million others had been displaced within the country by late May 2022. " Thousands of these refugees are Ukrainian men, of military age.
Over 1-million Ukrainian refugees have emigrated to Russia.
Some estimates of all those who have fled Ukraine since the start of the SMO amount to 40-percent of the population of Ukraine. Imagine if the United States lost 40-percent of its population. Ukraine is a failed state. Always was.
Best for Russia is:
1. Take up to Dnieper.
2. Remove objections to western Ukraine joining NATO, giving them the "Victory over Russia Man Bad!", while actually removing their proxy from the board and leaving them with the cleanup costs and pain of dealing with the awful brainwashed masses there.
3. In exchange for the NATO "victory" in 2, negotiate to have the US Empire turn over tiny little Odessa to the Russians as a minor concession.
That is not going to be the end result of this. After rebuilding a military during this process, VVP is not going to accept a compromise peace. Russia will have to take the whole thing and then dole out pieces. Establishing land contact with Transnistria is part of the calculus here. Also, Kiev is also a Russian city. I can't see them leaving that to the West.
I believe VVP refuses to telegraph his future decisions. The formulations of 2022 and early 2023 wouldn't have presaged a Kharkov offensive, either. Things have changed, and will change more the longer this continues.
I would accept nothing less than unconditional surrender at this point. It is the only way to secure Russia against this existential threat. I'm not a paranoid and I live in the US, but I wouldn't settle for less, given the circumstances. I always make the Ontario comparison - if some foreign power occupied it and started attacking the US from there, sending drones to DC and such, would you settle for less than occupation and surrender? Fuck no.
About the Nazis in the west of Ukraine, they'll have to deal. I would extract a pound of flesh from the Poles before considering giving them any land at all. I speak of concessions. I have no idea what Russia's concessions might be, but i'd be sure to get them. If they want that land, they should pay for it.
Russia taking all of Ukraine will be welcome by all Ukrainians. Ukrainians west of the Dnipro River will welcome Russian rule. The country can finally be rid of these grifters, moochers, and all this corruption, along with the open and wanton criminality that have plagued Ukraine since before the Soviet Era. Look how Putin deals with the corporate oligarchs inside Russia.
The "masses" in western Ukraine (all of Ukraine for that matter), are nowhere near as brainwashed as you may think.
"One has to wonder, at what point will the cost of repairing Ukraine outweight the potential benefits. " (BearInMind)
This IS NEVER the calculus of war. It is always HUBRIS instigated/propagated on different levels .... eventually leading to this. VVP "knows" this and SEEMS to have no intention of crossing THE RED LINE of THE LIE getting the better of him. It is always "some elite" that insinuates that war is better than peace in order to ....... VVP SEEMS to have a sense of "peace is better than war, but if you want to fight over it I put all my chips in".
THE WAY THE TRUTH AND THE LIFE ONLY - THE ONE AND ONLY INCARNATION OF GOD ALMIGHTY AND SHEPHERD AND SAVIOUR THE LORD JESUS CHRIST AND THE HOLY SPIRIT FOREVER AND EVER - AMEN HALLELU-YAH - SOLI DEO GLORIA!
Sunk-Cost knows neither shame nor humiliation
At some point (very soon) people get tired of dying for nothing. The other part is that if casualties were not a consideration, Russia would already have won this. Do you really think that an actual costs be damned Russian offensive would have been blunted by demoralized Ukrainian skeleton forces?
1) do they think for a second they can "claim their investments" without getting into a shooting war with Russia? Being in the midst of the US MIC, I can tell you the simple answer, "no". The smoke and noise right now is just brinkmanship trying to save those same investments. No one is starting a shooting war with Russia. Being too weak and the lack of willingness to industrialize, suffer some privation and fight in the West are the big issues.
2) I was speaking of a time for the last 6-9 months for a Russian all-out offensive. I know precisely what the Russian state is doing here. They are wise to do so, and usually are professional and thoughtful about their actions, so i'm unsurprised, but presume that it wasn't the current leadership. Costs be damned would have won this thing already, which is the stuff people complain about with whining about "how long this is taking".