Yeah, I suppose Thomas Taylor prefers the 'non-propaganda' of the folks who brought you 'Ghost of Kiev', 'Bucha Massacre', 'Kramatorsk Massacre', 'Snake Island', and endless others
Excellent work sir! At some point, the Nazi chain gangs are going to run out of people to draft at gunpoint. At some point, the draftees are going to start shooting officers. And what truly amuses me? The Russians have not really committed their Army. Yes, yes, the Russian Army is there. But it is the Donbas militias and Wagner at the point. Decimating NATO and the US. Incredible. In your learned opinion will Putin actually fully commit the military? Or will he continue the grind, and keep it there as a reserve in case Biden and Nuland go full batshit crazy?
For the record, Biden is not a functioning leader at this point. He is in "geriatric decline" and sowing all the signs of dementia. In other words a perfect stand in for the executive branch.
Nuland and her posse on the other hand are very dangerous and have been causing all manner of chaos and destruction for decades now.
Yep, the fall guy to blame all their willfully destructive actions on, as in to the US citizens,
"Sorry guys, clearly his dementia (terrible disease lets throw 50 billion to the study of it) has caused some very poor outcomes, vote for us to straighten out his mess."
I don't think he will commit the full strength of the Red Army in Ukraine. I think he is holding that in reserve for the real war with NATO, which, I believe the Russians believe, is inevitable now.
Forget the Russians, I believe it is inevitable. Since forever the Americans have wanted to go to war w/Russia. I am truly dreading the day it happens. Quite frankly I hope Putin kicks ass, I am sick of the money laundering and propaganda, and making plans for another "long war". The gig needs to be up.
W/the J6 tapes being released, even if in a controlled environment, as well as the Rona benefits coming to an end, a so called election coming up, there will need to be a distraction for everything that is crashing and burning. Nothing like a war to make money for the globalist whores and distract people's minds that eggs are $9 a dozen and that an entire town was left to die from a toxic spill due to a corrupt rail system, people dying from being snowed in while their Governor takes a sunny vacation, and, and, and......
Well I do plan to cover this more in depth in an upcoming report, but for now, I believe primarily Russia likely has to wait out the Rasputitsa season which is coming on extremely early. Then, since the end of this muddy season likely coincides with the allegedly 'mid Spring' offensive Ukraine plans to launch by late april (ideally), Russia has 2 options. Either 1. launch their own large offensive to preempt the Ukrainian one or 2. wait for Ukraine to launch theirs, and then destroy them 'in the open field' (since Ukrainian units will be out in the open and easy to target), and THEN launch the counteroffensive after you've decimated them.
It's difficult to say for now which one will occur because both sides are maneuvering and trying to second guess the other, playing mental chess games etc.
But the reserve idea is also a valid one because, especially considering the fact that Russia now has a large part of its military in and around Ukraine, to some extent it's dangerous to fully commit them all to one massive offensive because it risks you being caught with 'your pants down' if NATO decides to get cheeky as you implied. For now I'm waiting for more signals to see what they're leaning towards which I think we might not get until Bakhmut falls, which will give us better ideas as to what they plan to do next.
I think that the Russians are really focused on fundamentals, figures, numbers and statistic. They have a rational, step by step, longterm approach to things, not paying too much attention to psyops, media narratives, pompous declarations, and threats. They are focused on the commandment chain, industrial production, infraestructure, solidity, reliability and endurance, in order to cope for the long run. The west intends to crack the pilars of the Russian society, trying to widen a divide between the people and their leaders, trying to reach to the masses will to fight through media propaganda, demoralizing and forcing the Russian state to foster the repression measures on dissidence. And that is precisely what Putin struggles to avoid. From and outsider view, the Russian society seems now stronger than ever, whereas theis no Ukranian society left. Western countries dont have a society anymore either, only bribed politicians and mass control agents. On this particular point, the Russian supperiority and preparedness is overwhelming. The western vassals could send (more) soldiers to the front soon, but that is going to force them end the democratic sham they still pretend to show off and set up ever more unquestionable dictatorships.
Very well put. One has to admire the calm and calculated approach of the RF command. They are constantly being provoked, and their responses seem to be measured and intentional.
My assumption is that Russia will pound the living daylights out of the Ukraine forces with missiles and aerospace a few days before they launch their spring offensive, since it is patently clear to everyone the narrow timeframe Ukraine has to launch it. Russia is also monitoring the Western arms supply buildup. Russia is holding back massive missile and bombing raids for now, using only targeted pinpoint attacks. My view is that Russia determines that Ukraine has fully committed to their spring offensive, it will launch its own offensives with its mobilized divisions to flank the Ukrainians and also to exploit gaps in the defenses. Russia has been holding back most of its mobilized troops and aerospace forces. Think we will see a power ferocity and out of Russia no one expects.
I agree. There is a very striking reservation of combat power at the moment, most notably as you pointed out the lack of missile attacks, Iskander strikes, even artillery still somewhat down etc. It's obvious as day that Russia is building reserves for a much larger scale action. Some reports now claim it will come in April (high ranking AFU officer stated this recently), and that WOULD make sense to the extent that the next strategically ideal 'window' to launch an operation would be just AFTER Rasputitsa and just BEFORE Ukraine's big planned Spring Offensive, in order to neuter it right at the root. So this would place a possible operation window for around late April give or a little after perhaps
I would like to see Russia carry on being patient. They do not need to do anything rash. A slow advance, as it is doing now, is all that is needed. Ukraine is falling apart economically while the Russian economy and military is gaining capacity. Patience, nothing rash. The long game.
hmm, interesting analysis. To me it seems the Russian HQ are using smaller theatre offensives with adaptable and expendable DNR/Wagner assault groups, meanwhile Russian combined forces proper are on standby phase for either countering NATO's much publicized Spring Offensive, or just thinning the line and exposing larger gaps to then push the full army and collapse the entire Uki/Nato army.
Although some will disagree with your choice of words, I believe you're a bit closer to the truth than most would let on. That does appear to be roughly what's happening
I think that while the Nulands and Bidens of the world would gladly go to war with Russia AND China at once, there are some sane people left in the Pentagon, who can still crunch the numbers. Unfortunately, the system generally favours the former, as seen in Vietnam.
Support of the war is already iffy, even though they are mostly just sending momey and legacy equipment.
There is just massive disinformation taking place from both sides, but the bulk is Ukraine, which is fighting a "narrative" war as tools for the West. Yes, we are starting to see the Russian Air Force stepping up, and I see them being decisive in this next phase. Heavy bombardment campaign outside of Donbass will destroy Ukraine military for good. Grind, flatten, pulverize.
I suspect the air force is being given more responsibility due to the deterioration of the Ukrainian air defenses. And that is indeed bad news for Ukraine.
Until UKraine whines and drags in the F-16's which their pilots won't be able to fly so my people will have to do it for them. I will really be peeved if that happens.
I am not talking about the mercs, I don't give two hoots about them.
I am talking about the US military. US pilots don't have a choice, they go were they are told to go. The BatCrapCrazies are foaming at the mouth to send ground troops, I think it may be starting to sink in we don't care about NATO or Ukraine, we don't hate the Russians and it would be extremely unpopular thing to do, but then the gummint doesn't care what we think.
I never really ascribed to the whole Bakhmut framing. Even if Wagner encircles the city - the AFU still hold positions to the west and all are within indirect fire range.
One question I wanted to ask - I've seen dozens of videos on telegram showing RU indirect (artillery hard shell) fire. It never seems to hit within 50m of anything, there doesn't seem to be much of it (one or two impacts here and there) and it all looks contact-fused. How is RU using artillery? Do they have precision shells like Excalibur and these German munitions? I would imagine 1 guided shell is worth 100 dumb ones, especially once NATO armor starts making an appearance
Yes Russia has Krasnopol guided shells, but of course they are much fewer than the dumbfire ones so they're only used for more high value targets. Russia also has all the same sensor-fuzed smart munitions like the German one quoted in article, and have used them already many times in the conflict as I believe I've even posted in previous reports. Munitions like Motiv-3m from RBK-500 bomb.
And you're right 1 guided shell is worth more than 100times what a dumbfire one is worth in terms of cost $$$ which is why it's often much more economical to fire dumbfire ones even if it seems like a lot of them are missing because even if 1 out of 50 hits the target, then you still saved money compared to the $100-200k priced guided munition.
Soviet artillery doctrine was a system of grids that had it down to a mathematical science and exact equations as to how many shells it takes to defeat a particular target and the number is usually fairly high when you're not using guided shells. But with that said, shells are often doing far more damage than you think, or than it might look from a zoomed out Drone view. Because a lot of their fragmentary explosive damage wrecks everything (and kills troops) in a wide radius.
Thanks for another excellent update. If the Russians head south west from Bila Hora and south of Kostyantynivka they can cut the major road routes supplying the Toretsk/NY agglomeration and threaten a flanking manoeuvre. Would be an excellent place to commit some of the Russian military units, and it would suck in all Ukrainian reserves as they cannot afford to lose that area. Further advances to Pokrovsk would put the whole Ukrainian southern front in danger. Do you see any major Russian drives in the next few months?
That does look like a good plan, but I can only imagine for now there's simply not enough frontline troops to push that far. Around Bakhmut is mostly Wagner as we all know with some minor support from Russian VDV and other forces, presumably mostly in the rear and artillery. Wagner is already stretched thin trying to get Bakhmut into an operational encirclement so they definitely wouldn't have the troops, and as for Russian Army forces, MOD still refuses to commit them fully and are waiting for something.
However, I did hear just about 2-3 days ago that Wagner DID supposedly strike westward toward that region of Bila Hora. But I assume it's only to expand its flank vis a vis protecting the forces trying to storm Ivanovske in the north, rather than actually pushing a full salient to cut that next road south of Konstantinovka etc.
I do agree with you that the plan is sound, though, and I do think that once they're ready to start moving on toward Kramatorsk, that would be a natural cut off that will likely happen in order to encircle the New York area though I doubt they'll go as far/ambitious as toward Pokrovsk initially. I would think initially just encircle New York and come down to envelop and finish off Avdeevka.
Only problem is for now after Bakhmut falls the next likely vector might be towards Seversk. Not only are AFU signaling Seversk as their next 'fortress city', but Russian forces in the north have been steadily pushing toward that direction from Kremen --> Lyman so I think they're going to want to zip that up first. At least that's my thinking from the actual movements I'm seeing recently.
With that said, there was alot of talk of Russian mobilized forces supposedly being stationed in that Avdeevka/New York area weeks ago back when we still expected a possible large offensive by end of February so who knows.
Could be. But generally you want to take the weakest link first and keep tumbling the house of cards one weak link at a time. And Chasov Yar isn't a weak link because it's surrounded on all sides by friendly (to AFU) territory. But Seversk is in a bad spot because the north is up against a river with no escape, the south and east will be blocked, leaving only the west to escape. So Seversk may be the easiest natural domino to topple next
Seversk - that sounds tempting but ....1/ Seversk didn't fall in summer 2022 when RUS army controlled the area north of Donec river. Yes, one may object that now it partly controls the area between Artemovsk and Seeversk. 2/ Launching big offensive against one point has the drawbacks well described in article on C4ISR few days ago - concentration of attacker's troops in front of all seeing eyes of NATO satellites. And UKR still has some artillery available.
What if the idea is to start pushing through Avdiyevka (why else the heavy air bombings?), Mariinka (RUS pincer attack underway), Ugledar (do 2 Russian brigades keep 5 UKR brigades busy there? If yes it is a good result.) and Toreck and keep the offensive in Kharkov direction slowly moving on and slowly liquidate UKR troops in Artemovsk salient? The advantages of this approach 1/ No changes needed on Kharkov axis where RUS forces enjoy material and human power adantage and fight in forest, partly hidden from NATO satellites 2/ Slow liquidation of Artemovsk salient keeps all UKR troops there, they can't move away to launch any offensive 3/ Attacks on axis Avdiyevka, Mariinka, Ugledar, Toreck will force UKR command to move all reserves and in that area 4/ That will create huge concentration of UKR troops on rather small area of Donbas, another potential Artemovsk-style boiler 5/ RUS forces aparantly do not want to fight on Zaporozhie axis as it is uphill and in open terrain (I hope I am not wrong here I didn't check maps much).
One more idea. If the data from Wagner - RUS Army Gen Staff dispute (it maybe just a psyop) are correct then Wagner spends 18 000 shells a day. If few days later Artemovsk boiler is kept at "lower temperature" Wagner may save 9000 shells which may be redirected somewhere else in Donbas. 9000 pieces are a lot if used on narrow sector of the front. UKR units will be kept stuck in and around Artemovsk because UKR will try to keep the defence line and because the Rasputica king will prevent them from moving on unpaved filed roads for next 6 to 8 weeks. The only area where battle fields are still frozen is Kharkov axis. Or the saved shells will be stocked for spring adventure in Donbas area.
I dunno, I'm skeptical of any breakthroughs in that area you describe because it's a highly settlement-dense and road-dense area with an intricate and OLDEST network of fortifications due to the fact that that contact line has remained there unmoved for the longest time. Contrast that with areas like Bakhmut where the lines and echelons there are relatively fresh and haven't had years to be built because the contact line was not there at the start of the SMO.
So I am skeptical that any major breakthrough of that sort can be delivered in the Avdeevka/New York/Toresk region. They had 10 years to prepare that area in a similar way as Marinka etc, with underground bunkers, concrete-poured reinforcements for every fortification, etc, etc. The defensive fortifications in area around Bakhmut are much newer and easier to break through and same goes for Seversk etc.
well controlling area north of Seversk may be immaterial due to the river forming natural boundary there anyway, so it's not like AFU forces can escape NORTHward. If Seversk is blocked from south and east, then only way out is the West of it. And 2ndly, Russian forces are now 10km or less from Seversk in the northeast Kremen direction and are slowly inching forward. So it's conceivable that by the time Bakhmut fully falls, they could already have captured the area directly north of Seversk (north of the river)
What happened to the Russian offensive? What is it a Mirage? It has been six months now since mobilization. If the reserves are not ready now, they will never be.
There are a variety of possibilities. Firstly as I mentioned several times, Rasputitsa has come on extremely early (usually late march, it already started weeks ago). That's just one factor. The 'six months since mobilization' is not fully accurate--that's when it began, but it went in stages and the final tranche of mobiks were called up late october.
There's not necessarily a rush, so your urgency could be misplaced. After all, Russia is currently winning handily and grinding down the AFU. The losses at the moment are hugely in Russia's favor at least 7:1, maybe 10:1 in the main theater of Bakhmut. So Russia can leisurely choose its time of offensive without major repercussions.
The ONLY consideration is the alleged big 'Spring Offensive' but we must remember that the only reason that imminent offensive was originally 'scary' is because of the vast amount of NATO armor initially promised, but we now know that only a tiny almost negligible fraction of that armor is actually coming so I'm not sure that Russia has much to worry about.
From Russia's perspective they are getting stronger by the day, Russia's industry is only just now beginning to truly take off and hum along, producing only the absolute latest/best weapons from the mentioned guided glidebombs, to the Armatas/Bumerangs/T-90Ms etc. What's the hurry?
"After all, Russia is currently winning handily and grinding down the AFU. The losses at the moment are hugely in Russia's favor at least 7:1, maybe 10:1 in the main theater of Bakhmut."
While it may NOT have been known a year ago how much NATO would commit to the Ukraine, it has apparently been on the very high end; many many billions of dollars of military aid. (And zero real audit to know how most of it is spent) Certainly Russia is now correctly thinking they are essentially fighting NATO now. and so yes, some geography they claimed is important, yet of far greater importance is decimating the NATO reinforced army.
And winning an attrition battle at 7 to 1 or 10 to 1 , especially when you are the advancing force, as opposed to the dug in force, that is almost unheard of against a better or equally armed force. If Russia is in a major way winning the attrition battle (men and arms) then certainly they have the long view in mind, and this is satisfactory in what they view as a struggle against NATO for their very existence.
NATOs ability to continue to get the NATO nations populace to support this insanity is certainly vulnerable, so that also is a reason for some Russian restraint. Plus they appear relatively rational, as if they really don't want millions dead and cities completely destroyed. (Which appears to be exactly what the WEF leaders want.)
Once Russia has the territory they have claimed, if NATO and the Ukraine is to truly to attempt an offensive, Russia may be content that destroying everything NATO produces, along with the army sent with that production at a very favorable ratio, is satisfactory for the long term perspective. This is especially true if their logistics for war production and supply chains are well secured, while the west is busy breaking their energy capacity over "global warming" "https://anderdaa7.substack.com/p/global-warming and continuing their associated suicidal cultural destruction, along with global food supplies also being very negatively impacted. (The global warming post is cogent here, as the overview demonstrates the willful political motives behind the false climate alarmist FUD campaign, and the very same political motives control COVID policy and the war against Russia, and any nation not willing to play their one world games. Much of this political skill set was honed in global warming, and that post illustrates it very well. )
One other reason, besides the obvious, that Russia may want to take a "as few lives lost as possible as long as the opposing army is being decimated" approach, is that future demographics concerns that already looked bad in the developed west and Russia, look far worse post heavy human loss in war. Once again, everything the WEF crowd does carries an element of self destruction in lives and culture. George Washington advised the future US leaders to STAY out of foreign wars, and warned that "Tyranny is most easily established on the ruins of liberty, abused to licentiousness." Ignoring the wisdom of a great man is very foolish, and we have been very foolish indeed.
Yep just check this little video I made, it will give you an idea how much Ukraine has been given, and that's not even counting the shadow money so the real amount is probably double or triple this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/sBNxDH1QsPPw/
What's shocking to me is how some people refuse to believe that 7:1+ attrition rates are possible for an invading force. The typical "military rule of thumb" is 3:1 losses in favor of the defender, yadda yadda. But this is a pedantic, antiquated rule stemming from pre-artillery days and assuming that both sides are equally strong and the offensive side is simply 'storming head on'. But--contrary to what all the fake Ukro/Western propaganda wants us to believe--Russia is NOT just 'storming head on' with human wave tactics. They're completely disemboweling the AFU from a distance with artillery, and NO one, not even the Ukrainian side would dare misgive the artillery advantage. I saw just yesterday a Ukrainian officer admit that Russia has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage. So the point is, of course Russia is going to inflict more casualties on them, they're just leisurely sitting back and wrecking the AFU from afar with both Air power and artillery power--antiquated 3:1 attacker/defender 'laws' need not apply.
As for the demographics angle, it's interesting, most people don't realize that Slavs are actually the most numerous ethnic group in all of Europe by far. And Russia is set to inherit anywhere from 7-10 million new citizens in population strength from this 'war' that far outdoes any losses. They've already absorbed several million from Crimea alone, single handedly outdoing decades of population decline, and now from the 4 Donbass republics Russia is set to take many millions more. In fact the latest number I've seen for total refugees from Ukraine who've fled to Russia is 10million. So when all is said and done, Russian pre-2014 population of 143million or so could balloon to well over 150 million total, defeating DECADES of population decline. Not to mention that Russia already has practically the highest TFR in Europe by latest 2023 figures from what I recall.
Only a few authors are so consistently and skillfully responsive to the comments, that they become the basis of deeper understanding. It is appreciated.
Thank you for the excellent response. My only concern was that I recall well the summer of 2022. Everything was going very well for the Russian forces. We were "Grinding" the Ukrainians down, a lot of POW's, destroyed and captured equipment. Although there we no big territorial gains, it appeared that the Ukrainian army was a spent force. Then Kharkov offensive seems to have come out of nowhere.
I am not looking for a big arrow offensive. I think they are very risky and thwart with problems. With American satellites, AWACS, Drones, anything big gets immediately spotted. However, a limited offensive from Luhansk, Sumy or Kharkov region seems appropriate. If I had to choose, I would go with Sumy. This is very hard region for the Ukrainians to defend. The logistics is a nightmare. As everything Ukraine does is for PR they could not possibly countenance the loss of a city the size of Sumy. Ukraine would be forced to send reserves there. Russia need not try to occupy the city, merely threaten it.
On one hand it's true about the Kharkov offensive, but one must remember that the Kharkov offensive resulted in no real losses. Even Ukrainians at their highest estimates claimed to have captured somewhere in the range of 20-50 tanks (from my memory) and this was wildly inflated by a few fake videos showing a disused Crimean tank base which they tried to pass off as an entire base full of 'abandoned vehicles'. The retreat from Kharkov region had almost no attritional effect on Russian forces whatsoever, and in fact the Russian side claims AFU lost thousands in their push. Even if we assume for argument's sake that that's exaggeration and let's just say to play devil's advocate that neither side lost much--all we're left with is a hand over of territory. And if you read my original article https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-2023
you'll know why it happened, because Russia so far has used a FAR tinier force in the SMO than most people think (less than 100k) and so there were certain 'crumple zones' that were simply indefensible and were held only on hope that no strikes would come there.
Now the Russian army has reached rough numerical parity (plus or minus a few) and so such lopsided overruns are not really possible anymore. Of course there's some remote possibility that Kiev has stealth-mobilized a far larger force in the west of the country than any of us can imagine, and some do claim this (I've heard 1.2 million 'rumors' now, etc), but of course the chances of that are very low.
The service ceiling for most types of fighter aircraft are usually WELL above civilian air-liners 40kft.
A bomb "lob-toss" profile (necessary for surviving tac-nuke drops of yor, so a 60 or more year old technique) could easily have a glide bomb peak at 70-80k altitude. You might want to recalibrate your thinking there.. I see the SU-57 "Felon" can drop the "Drill" anti-tank bomblet carrier...wonder what the production rate on the "Drill" might be now...??
Could be--not much is known on these bombs yet in practice and either way such altitudes are sort of moot for now due to Ukraine's long range anti-air capabilities like BUK and S-300 so it's still very dangerous to fly that high as a Russian Su-34 recently learned only 3 days ago (new one was shot down over Donetsk this weekend)
Talking about disparate pieces of news, in today's Financial Time, which is the globalist ideological centre of command, Gideon Richman, who together with Martin Wolff manages that informational stronghold, warns China on a fateful choice to make on Ukraine. Basicaly, China should sever ties with Russia in order to be allowed to keep its industrial power and manufacturing exporting economy. Provided that the Chinese cannot be convinced of such a delusional advice, this can only be interpreted as an order for the European Union to pull off from China and settle in western cheap labour colonies like Korea, Vietnam or Indonesia.
Very true YR, but not only have the West already been doing that for years (offshoring many productions from China to cheaper places like Philipines etc) it's already been ongoing recently as well, for instance just days ago I saw that Apple is apparently about to relocate its premiere iPhone factory from China to India or has already done so, so I'm not sure how much weight the West's threats hold in this regard
...and US actions of the past two decades have given global nations a road map to how untrustworthy US promises are. To expect China, facing their own deep level of crisis NOW, to sever relations with a very powerful neighbor nation with whom they are building a global geo-political business financial structure, (The BRICS plus) will only accelerate those plans AWAY from the US.
They still appear to be operating just on a lower profile. I just posted a video yesterday of a new prisoner they took. And I recall last month they took a large bounty of prisoners from the Ukraine's famed 'elite' 79th brigade: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Qx0pXe6pmwxy/
That’s what I heard. Can’t wait when german and French troops that hold over 30% of Muslim in their ranks will cheers and rub shoulders with tchetchens on the front line
Those are not T-14 Armata tanks on the railway flatcars, and I should hardly think that photograph was taken on the border of the Rostov region, if “Rostov” means “Rostov-on-Don”, which region having that city as its seat of administration Brain-of-Britain Truss thinks is in the Ukraine, because temperatures there for most of the winter months only occasionally fall below zero Celsius.
Right now at 13:58 Moscow time, the temperature in Rostov-on-Don is plus 9 °C.
REVERSE SIDE OF THE MEDAL is a v Kontakte channel here in Russia.
Yes, those are T-14 Armatas. In fact they're quite simple to distinguish: Armatas are the only tank in the Russian inventory which uniquely has 9 tracked wheels, whereas the T-72 and T-80 have 8 wheels on each tracked side. T-62 and T-64 also have 8.
The Armata was designed with 9 for the first time to accomodate its much larger size, which now puts it in league with the Abrams, Leopard, Challenger, etc which likewise all have 9 owing to their length and size. As you can see in the train video, the tanks have 9 wheels so they're Armatas.
Right! Got you! Didn't see that video link. And even if I had seen it, I can't view it because it is non-accessible from Darkest Mordor, where I am resident.
to forum+1r31s6&ygc6y&7z541&d9d1941578db25b95f59a06d6e4eae0629fdd39bf7bf2f7765545e786b3561f8
Non-accessible here on Chrome as well. I then used a VPN on Chrome and saw the Bitchute video. I sincerely doubt that that clip was shot in the Rostov oblast. meaning Rostov-on-Don. The winters there are quite mild, and if they do get a snowfall there, it quickly thaws after a few days. However, it could have been shot in the region of the other Rostov northeast of Moscow, "Great Rostov", which is still under snow, as is Moscow right now.
I was like "9 wheels? I thought the Armata had 7 road wheels..?" Then I had the aha moment...Simplicius is counting the drive and idler sprockets as wheels... the internet nit-pickers will downgrade his blog pronouncements accordingly!
Another example of why you can't win a war with an army of (almost entirely) slaves. Everyone who was willing to die for the Kiev regime is out there fighting, or already dead. All they have left is scraps they are trying to gather, especially from minority groups. Eerily familiar to the 1945 ramp-up of deporting minorities by a vaguely related regime after the German collapse was all but certian...
Just bring it to an end already! How many people have to die conpletely pointlessly, just to prolong the war by a few months?
What worries me is that Biden/Blinken/Nuland are aggressive narcissists that cannot fail. That means they will double and triple down after each debacle they create. I have been wondering for over a week now as to what their next scheme is. Even though anything they do will fail, they will desperately try nonetheless. Let's just hope that it does not drag neighbors into the fray and widen the war further.
Of course. And this is why I repeatedly try to warn people not to take my SEEMINGLY rosy broad strokes as guarantee of easy victory. Sure I heap a lot of praise in my writing on the Russian/Allied forces and duly so, in many areas. But of course NATO/West have many other levers and pressure points to continue escalating and this is not over by a long shot; there are still extreme dangers remaining. Nor is Russia completely in the clear in any way, they are also suffering from MAJOR problems on every conceivable front. From internal military dissatisfaction, arms/ammo supply issues, liberal 5th/6th column wings doing everything in their power to end the SMO, etc, etc. This is NOT as clear cut as it sometimes sounds.
With that said it's quite obvious what NATO's one true trump card is, which is a nuke/biological falseflag which would be pretext for ingressing their forces under pretext of 'humanitarian intervention' or 'creating humanitarian corridor to help the nuked/chem'd civilians' flee to neighboring country etc.
I think that many expect a false flag type action that provides cause for further escalation, but even the demented and clueless Biden administration must have some internal contrarians that have enumerated the massive downsides to spreading this war wider, or engaging with NATO troops directly. So despite their apparent obliviousness, they must have heard the RAND Corps list of caveats and warnings, and I am sure there are plenty in the military that are not eager to ramp this up further. I expect that in the near term one main strategy will be to quietly encourage more mercenaries from NATO countries to "do their duty for freedom" and pay their own way to Ukraine to wage war on the infidels. This has clearly been a background tactic for some time, and will probably be encouraged further.
We will see if they have the sheer stupidity to give Russia reason to change tactics again and massively escalate their long-range warfare to another level. The US and NATO are in a bit of a bind due to the lack of support among their populaces. So the sneaky route might be more tenable than a major false flag incident. We shall soon see.
-5th column, aka oligarchs and Courchevel, Marbella, London lovers want life back as before 02/24(they can dream, will not happen before one or two generations).
-6th column, they want full war not only against ukies but to bomb London, Brussels and D C.
Well on the bright side, it's a far more reliable source of propaganda than Zelensky's/CIA propaganda
And at least its not filled with cringe Marvel movie quotes.
Yeah, I suppose Thomas Taylor prefers the 'non-propaganda' of the folks who brought you 'Ghost of Kiev', 'Bucha Massacre', 'Kramatorsk Massacre', 'Snake Island', and endless others
Yet you're still here, hmm interesting. I guess you enjoy propaganda. A little hypocritical, but that's all right ;-)
Taylor is belingcat MI6.Active on MOA as well.
And he's dumb as a brick...
When it's obvious that a commentor is a troll it's best to ignore him/it, after which they shrivel
Excellent work sir! At some point, the Nazi chain gangs are going to run out of people to draft at gunpoint. At some point, the draftees are going to start shooting officers. And what truly amuses me? The Russians have not really committed their Army. Yes, yes, the Russian Army is there. But it is the Donbas militias and Wagner at the point. Decimating NATO and the US. Incredible. In your learned opinion will Putin actually fully commit the military? Or will he continue the grind, and keep it there as a reserve in case Biden and Nuland go full batshit crazy?
Biden and Nuland are already batshit crazy, I am really dreading them going full speed ahead batshit crazy. They need to be stopped.
For the record, Biden is not a functioning leader at this point. He is in "geriatric decline" and sowing all the signs of dementia. In other words a perfect stand in for the executive branch.
Nuland and her posse on the other hand are very dangerous and have been causing all manner of chaos and destruction for decades now.
Yes, Joey is the puppet figure, the ones pulling his strings are the dangerous ones.
Yep, the fall guy to blame all their willfully destructive actions on, as in to the US citizens,
"Sorry guys, clearly his dementia (terrible disease lets throw 50 billion to the study of it) has caused some very poor outcomes, vote for us to straighten out his mess."
I don't think he will commit the full strength of the Red Army in Ukraine. I think he is holding that in reserve for the real war with NATO, which, I believe the Russians believe, is inevitable now.
They are still referred to as the Red Army. It's a patriotic thing.
Forget the Russians, I believe it is inevitable. Since forever the Americans have wanted to go to war w/Russia. I am truly dreading the day it happens. Quite frankly I hope Putin kicks ass, I am sick of the money laundering and propaganda, and making plans for another "long war". The gig needs to be up.
W/the J6 tapes being released, even if in a controlled environment, as well as the Rona benefits coming to an end, a so called election coming up, there will need to be a distraction for everything that is crashing and burning. Nothing like a war to make money for the globalist whores and distract people's minds that eggs are $9 a dozen and that an entire town was left to die from a toxic spill due to a corrupt rail system, people dying from being snowed in while their Governor takes a sunny vacation, and, and, and......
I does seem like things are coming to a head, and when this dynamic is set up there is often a 911 grade response. If i were a gambling man.....
Something will happen, it is what they always do.
Samantha Powers was in Hungary to stir the pot and to get the NGO's set up.
Well I do plan to cover this more in depth in an upcoming report, but for now, I believe primarily Russia likely has to wait out the Rasputitsa season which is coming on extremely early. Then, since the end of this muddy season likely coincides with the allegedly 'mid Spring' offensive Ukraine plans to launch by late april (ideally), Russia has 2 options. Either 1. launch their own large offensive to preempt the Ukrainian one or 2. wait for Ukraine to launch theirs, and then destroy them 'in the open field' (since Ukrainian units will be out in the open and easy to target), and THEN launch the counteroffensive after you've decimated them.
It's difficult to say for now which one will occur because both sides are maneuvering and trying to second guess the other, playing mental chess games etc.
But the reserve idea is also a valid one because, especially considering the fact that Russia now has a large part of its military in and around Ukraine, to some extent it's dangerous to fully commit them all to one massive offensive because it risks you being caught with 'your pants down' if NATO decides to get cheeky as you implied. For now I'm waiting for more signals to see what they're leaning towards which I think we might not get until Bakhmut falls, which will give us better ideas as to what they plan to do next.
It is like playing a game of Risk in real time.
NATO needs to pound sand along w/Joey and Victoria.
It all makes me spittin' nails mad.
Exactly. NATO are like the yipping Hyenas circling the lone Bear, waiting for an opportunity for it to turn its back
Hopefully the bear is not totally alone. May have a dragon or Iran (not sure what critter) holding its back.
I considered lion but didn't think anyone would get the reference.
I'll take Simorgh or Senmurv! I like tbe imagery, plus it'll trigger the question "huh? Wut? wtf?" & drive everyone to their fave search engine! 🤔😉
I think that the Russians are really focused on fundamentals, figures, numbers and statistic. They have a rational, step by step, longterm approach to things, not paying too much attention to psyops, media narratives, pompous declarations, and threats. They are focused on the commandment chain, industrial production, infraestructure, solidity, reliability and endurance, in order to cope for the long run. The west intends to crack the pilars of the Russian society, trying to widen a divide between the people and their leaders, trying to reach to the masses will to fight through media propaganda, demoralizing and forcing the Russian state to foster the repression measures on dissidence. And that is precisely what Putin struggles to avoid. From and outsider view, the Russian society seems now stronger than ever, whereas theis no Ukranian society left. Western countries dont have a society anymore either, only bribed politicians and mass control agents. On this particular point, the Russian supperiority and preparedness is overwhelming. The western vassals could send (more) soldiers to the front soon, but that is going to force them end the democratic sham they still pretend to show off and set up ever more unquestionable dictatorships.
Very well put. One has to admire the calm and calculated approach of the RF command. They are constantly being provoked, and their responses seem to be measured and intentional.
you really do, i would have fallen for one of the provocations long ago.
Yes...even as an ArmChair JackWagon I get the urge to stomp and smash in an act of retribution, and I have barely been inconvenienced!
The problem is that nato supplies, arms, training and support don't wait.
My assumption is that Russia will pound the living daylights out of the Ukraine forces with missiles and aerospace a few days before they launch their spring offensive, since it is patently clear to everyone the narrow timeframe Ukraine has to launch it. Russia is also monitoring the Western arms supply buildup. Russia is holding back massive missile and bombing raids for now, using only targeted pinpoint attacks. My view is that Russia determines that Ukraine has fully committed to their spring offensive, it will launch its own offensives with its mobilized divisions to flank the Ukrainians and also to exploit gaps in the defenses. Russia has been holding back most of its mobilized troops and aerospace forces. Think we will see a power ferocity and out of Russia no one expects.
I agree. There is a very striking reservation of combat power at the moment, most notably as you pointed out the lack of missile attacks, Iskander strikes, even artillery still somewhat down etc. It's obvious as day that Russia is building reserves for a much larger scale action. Some reports now claim it will come in April (high ranking AFU officer stated this recently), and that WOULD make sense to the extent that the next strategically ideal 'window' to launch an operation would be just AFTER Rasputitsa and just BEFORE Ukraine's big planned Spring Offensive, in order to neuter it right at the root. So this would place a possible operation window for around late April give or a little after perhaps
I would like to see Russia carry on being patient. They do not need to do anything rash. A slow advance, as it is doing now, is all that is needed. Ukraine is falling apart economically while the Russian economy and military is gaining capacity. Patience, nothing rash. The long game.
hmm, interesting analysis. To me it seems the Russian HQ are using smaller theatre offensives with adaptable and expendable DNR/Wagner assault groups, meanwhile Russian combined forces proper are on standby phase for either countering NATO's much publicized Spring Offensive, or just thinning the line and exposing larger gaps to then push the full army and collapse the entire Uki/Nato army.
Although some will disagree with your choice of words, I believe you're a bit closer to the truth than most would let on. That does appear to be roughly what's happening
I think that while the Nulands and Bidens of the world would gladly go to war with Russia AND China at once, there are some sane people left in the Pentagon, who can still crunch the numbers. Unfortunately, the system generally favours the former, as seen in Vietnam.
Support of the war is already iffy, even though they are mostly just sending momey and legacy equipment.
There is just massive disinformation taking place from both sides, but the bulk is Ukraine, which is fighting a "narrative" war as tools for the West. Yes, we are starting to see the Russian Air Force stepping up, and I see them being decisive in this next phase. Heavy bombardment campaign outside of Donbass will destroy Ukraine military for good. Grind, flatten, pulverize.
I suspect the air force is being given more responsibility due to the deterioration of the Ukrainian air defenses. And that is indeed bad news for Ukraine.
Until UKraine whines and drags in the F-16's which their pilots won't be able to fly so my people will have to do it for them. I will really be peeved if that happens.
Don't be too concerned. Russian AD is far too advanced for F-16s. they'll be shot out of the sky.
That's good, I just don't want my people shot down because of political hacks.
It may sound callous, but if a pilot consents to go to Ukraine and they get shot down, they deserve what they get. I'm a USAian, by the way.
The lunatics in charge can't succeed without subordinates and grunts to do their dirty work.
Who at some point will need to make a hard choice.
You cannot buy loyalty.
I am not talking about the mercs, I don't give two hoots about them.
I am talking about the US military. US pilots don't have a choice, they go were they are told to go. The BatCrapCrazies are foaming at the mouth to send ground troops, I think it may be starting to sink in we don't care about NATO or Ukraine, we don't hate the Russians and it would be extremely unpopular thing to do, but then the gummint doesn't care what we think.
I never really ascribed to the whole Bakhmut framing. Even if Wagner encircles the city - the AFU still hold positions to the west and all are within indirect fire range.
One question I wanted to ask - I've seen dozens of videos on telegram showing RU indirect (artillery hard shell) fire. It never seems to hit within 50m of anything, there doesn't seem to be much of it (one or two impacts here and there) and it all looks contact-fused. How is RU using artillery? Do they have precision shells like Excalibur and these German munitions? I would imagine 1 guided shell is worth 100 dumb ones, especially once NATO armor starts making an appearance
Yes Russia has Krasnopol guided shells, but of course they are much fewer than the dumbfire ones so they're only used for more high value targets. Russia also has all the same sensor-fuzed smart munitions like the German one quoted in article, and have used them already many times in the conflict as I believe I've even posted in previous reports. Munitions like Motiv-3m from RBK-500 bomb.
And you're right 1 guided shell is worth more than 100times what a dumbfire one is worth in terms of cost $$$ which is why it's often much more economical to fire dumbfire ones even if it seems like a lot of them are missing because even if 1 out of 50 hits the target, then you still saved money compared to the $100-200k priced guided munition.
Soviet artillery doctrine was a system of grids that had it down to a mathematical science and exact equations as to how many shells it takes to defeat a particular target and the number is usually fairly high when you're not using guided shells. But with that said, shells are often doing far more damage than you think, or than it might look from a zoomed out Drone view. Because a lot of their fragmentary explosive damage wrecks everything (and kills troops) in a wide radius.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/fJgIt2L8cHbd/
The bodies in the mine, how buried is buried? Is the smell frozen? I can't imagine a spring thaw.
The whole thing is a weird war, I want it over. I don't want my family involved in this shit.
Stay the course. God will guide❤️🇷🇺💙
Thanks for another excellent update. If the Russians head south west from Bila Hora and south of Kostyantynivka they can cut the major road routes supplying the Toretsk/NY agglomeration and threaten a flanking manoeuvre. Would be an excellent place to commit some of the Russian military units, and it would suck in all Ukrainian reserves as they cannot afford to lose that area. Further advances to Pokrovsk would put the whole Ukrainian southern front in danger. Do you see any major Russian drives in the next few months?
That does look like a good plan, but I can only imagine for now there's simply not enough frontline troops to push that far. Around Bakhmut is mostly Wagner as we all know with some minor support from Russian VDV and other forces, presumably mostly in the rear and artillery. Wagner is already stretched thin trying to get Bakhmut into an operational encirclement so they definitely wouldn't have the troops, and as for Russian Army forces, MOD still refuses to commit them fully and are waiting for something.
However, I did hear just about 2-3 days ago that Wagner DID supposedly strike westward toward that region of Bila Hora. But I assume it's only to expand its flank vis a vis protecting the forces trying to storm Ivanovske in the north, rather than actually pushing a full salient to cut that next road south of Konstantinovka etc.
I do agree with you that the plan is sound, though, and I do think that once they're ready to start moving on toward Kramatorsk, that would be a natural cut off that will likely happen in order to encircle the New York area though I doubt they'll go as far/ambitious as toward Pokrovsk initially. I would think initially just encircle New York and come down to envelop and finish off Avdeevka.
Only problem is for now after Bakhmut falls the next likely vector might be towards Seversk. Not only are AFU signaling Seversk as their next 'fortress city', but Russian forces in the north have been steadily pushing toward that direction from Kremen --> Lyman so I think they're going to want to zip that up first. At least that's my thinking from the actual movements I'm seeing recently.
With that said, there was alot of talk of Russian mobilized forces supposedly being stationed in that Avdeevka/New York area weeks ago back when we still expected a possible large offensive by end of February so who knows.
Given its proximity to Bakhmut, I would think Chasov Yar would need to be taken first before any other city is considered.
Could be. But generally you want to take the weakest link first and keep tumbling the house of cards one weak link at a time. And Chasov Yar isn't a weak link because it's surrounded on all sides by friendly (to AFU) territory. But Seversk is in a bad spot because the north is up against a river with no escape, the south and east will be blocked, leaving only the west to escape. So Seversk may be the easiest natural domino to topple next
Seversk - that sounds tempting but ....1/ Seversk didn't fall in summer 2022 when RUS army controlled the area north of Donec river. Yes, one may object that now it partly controls the area between Artemovsk and Seeversk. 2/ Launching big offensive against one point has the drawbacks well described in article on C4ISR few days ago - concentration of attacker's troops in front of all seeing eyes of NATO satellites. And UKR still has some artillery available.
What if the idea is to start pushing through Avdiyevka (why else the heavy air bombings?), Mariinka (RUS pincer attack underway), Ugledar (do 2 Russian brigades keep 5 UKR brigades busy there? If yes it is a good result.) and Toreck and keep the offensive in Kharkov direction slowly moving on and slowly liquidate UKR troops in Artemovsk salient? The advantages of this approach 1/ No changes needed on Kharkov axis where RUS forces enjoy material and human power adantage and fight in forest, partly hidden from NATO satellites 2/ Slow liquidation of Artemovsk salient keeps all UKR troops there, they can't move away to launch any offensive 3/ Attacks on axis Avdiyevka, Mariinka, Ugledar, Toreck will force UKR command to move all reserves and in that area 4/ That will create huge concentration of UKR troops on rather small area of Donbas, another potential Artemovsk-style boiler 5/ RUS forces aparantly do not want to fight on Zaporozhie axis as it is uphill and in open terrain (I hope I am not wrong here I didn't check maps much).
One more idea. If the data from Wagner - RUS Army Gen Staff dispute (it maybe just a psyop) are correct then Wagner spends 18 000 shells a day. If few days later Artemovsk boiler is kept at "lower temperature" Wagner may save 9000 shells which may be redirected somewhere else in Donbas. 9000 pieces are a lot if used on narrow sector of the front. UKR units will be kept stuck in and around Artemovsk because UKR will try to keep the defence line and because the Rasputica king will prevent them from moving on unpaved filed roads for next 6 to 8 weeks. The only area where battle fields are still frozen is Kharkov axis. Or the saved shells will be stocked for spring adventure in Donbas area.
I dunno, I'm skeptical of any breakthroughs in that area you describe because it's a highly settlement-dense and road-dense area with an intricate and OLDEST network of fortifications due to the fact that that contact line has remained there unmoved for the longest time. Contrast that with areas like Bakhmut where the lines and echelons there are relatively fresh and haven't had years to be built because the contact line was not there at the start of the SMO.
So I am skeptical that any major breakthrough of that sort can be delivered in the Avdeevka/New York/Toresk region. They had 10 years to prepare that area in a similar way as Marinka etc, with underground bunkers, concrete-poured reinforcements for every fortification, etc, etc. The defensive fortifications in area around Bakhmut are much newer and easier to break through and same goes for Seversk etc.
well controlling area north of Seversk may be immaterial due to the river forming natural boundary there anyway, so it's not like AFU forces can escape NORTHward. If Seversk is blocked from south and east, then only way out is the West of it. And 2ndly, Russian forces are now 10km or less from Seversk in the northeast Kremen direction and are slowly inching forward. So it's conceivable that by the time Bakhmut fully falls, they could already have captured the area directly north of Seversk (north of the river)
Visualize Armata monuments next to the T-34's in the not too distant future...
Simplicius,
FYI...
https://medium.com/@deborahlarmstrong/every-day-we-were-working-like-frankensteins-slaves-cb76bff7bdbd
thanks, and have you seen this one https://www.bitchute.com/video/Tqkd98ojPaiQ/
What happened to the Russian offensive? What is it a Mirage? It has been six months now since mobilization. If the reserves are not ready now, they will never be.
There are a variety of possibilities. Firstly as I mentioned several times, Rasputitsa has come on extremely early (usually late march, it already started weeks ago). That's just one factor. The 'six months since mobilization' is not fully accurate--that's when it began, but it went in stages and the final tranche of mobiks were called up late october.
There's not necessarily a rush, so your urgency could be misplaced. After all, Russia is currently winning handily and grinding down the AFU. The losses at the moment are hugely in Russia's favor at least 7:1, maybe 10:1 in the main theater of Bakhmut. So Russia can leisurely choose its time of offensive without major repercussions.
The ONLY consideration is the alleged big 'Spring Offensive' but we must remember that the only reason that imminent offensive was originally 'scary' is because of the vast amount of NATO armor initially promised, but we now know that only a tiny almost negligible fraction of that armor is actually coming so I'm not sure that Russia has much to worry about.
From Russia's perspective they are getting stronger by the day, Russia's industry is only just now beginning to truly take off and hum along, producing only the absolute latest/best weapons from the mentioned guided glidebombs, to the Armatas/Bumerangs/T-90Ms etc. What's the hurry?
"After all, Russia is currently winning handily and grinding down the AFU. The losses at the moment are hugely in Russia's favor at least 7:1, maybe 10:1 in the main theater of Bakhmut."
While it may NOT have been known a year ago how much NATO would commit to the Ukraine, it has apparently been on the very high end; many many billions of dollars of military aid. (And zero real audit to know how most of it is spent) Certainly Russia is now correctly thinking they are essentially fighting NATO now. and so yes, some geography they claimed is important, yet of far greater importance is decimating the NATO reinforced army.
And winning an attrition battle at 7 to 1 or 10 to 1 , especially when you are the advancing force, as opposed to the dug in force, that is almost unheard of against a better or equally armed force. If Russia is in a major way winning the attrition battle (men and arms) then certainly they have the long view in mind, and this is satisfactory in what they view as a struggle against NATO for their very existence.
NATOs ability to continue to get the NATO nations populace to support this insanity is certainly vulnerable, so that also is a reason for some Russian restraint. Plus they appear relatively rational, as if they really don't want millions dead and cities completely destroyed. (Which appears to be exactly what the WEF leaders want.)
Once Russia has the territory they have claimed, if NATO and the Ukraine is to truly to attempt an offensive, Russia may be content that destroying everything NATO produces, along with the army sent with that production at a very favorable ratio, is satisfactory for the long term perspective. This is especially true if their logistics for war production and supply chains are well secured, while the west is busy breaking their energy capacity over "global warming" "https://anderdaa7.substack.com/p/global-warming and continuing their associated suicidal cultural destruction, along with global food supplies also being very negatively impacted. (The global warming post is cogent here, as the overview demonstrates the willful political motives behind the false climate alarmist FUD campaign, and the very same political motives control COVID policy and the war against Russia, and any nation not willing to play their one world games. Much of this political skill set was honed in global warming, and that post illustrates it very well. )
One other reason, besides the obvious, that Russia may want to take a "as few lives lost as possible as long as the opposing army is being decimated" approach, is that future demographics concerns that already looked bad in the developed west and Russia, look far worse post heavy human loss in war. Once again, everything the WEF crowd does carries an element of self destruction in lives and culture. George Washington advised the future US leaders to STAY out of foreign wars, and warned that "Tyranny is most easily established on the ruins of liberty, abused to licentiousness." Ignoring the wisdom of a great man is very foolish, and we have been very foolish indeed.
Yep just check this little video I made, it will give you an idea how much Ukraine has been given, and that's not even counting the shadow money so the real amount is probably double or triple this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/sBNxDH1QsPPw/
What's shocking to me is how some people refuse to believe that 7:1+ attrition rates are possible for an invading force. The typical "military rule of thumb" is 3:1 losses in favor of the defender, yadda yadda. But this is a pedantic, antiquated rule stemming from pre-artillery days and assuming that both sides are equally strong and the offensive side is simply 'storming head on'. But--contrary to what all the fake Ukro/Western propaganda wants us to believe--Russia is NOT just 'storming head on' with human wave tactics. They're completely disemboweling the AFU from a distance with artillery, and NO one, not even the Ukrainian side would dare misgive the artillery advantage. I saw just yesterday a Ukrainian officer admit that Russia has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage. So the point is, of course Russia is going to inflict more casualties on them, they're just leisurely sitting back and wrecking the AFU from afar with both Air power and artillery power--antiquated 3:1 attacker/defender 'laws' need not apply.
As for the demographics angle, it's interesting, most people don't realize that Slavs are actually the most numerous ethnic group in all of Europe by far. And Russia is set to inherit anywhere from 7-10 million new citizens in population strength from this 'war' that far outdoes any losses. They've already absorbed several million from Crimea alone, single handedly outdoing decades of population decline, and now from the 4 Donbass republics Russia is set to take many millions more. In fact the latest number I've seen for total refugees from Ukraine who've fled to Russia is 10million. So when all is said and done, Russian pre-2014 population of 143million or so could balloon to well over 150 million total, defeating DECADES of population decline. Not to mention that Russia already has practically the highest TFR in Europe by latest 2023 figures from what I recall.
Only a few authors are so consistently and skillfully responsive to the comments, that they become the basis of deeper understanding. It is appreciated.
Thank you for the excellent response. My only concern was that I recall well the summer of 2022. Everything was going very well for the Russian forces. We were "Grinding" the Ukrainians down, a lot of POW's, destroyed and captured equipment. Although there we no big territorial gains, it appeared that the Ukrainian army was a spent force. Then Kharkov offensive seems to have come out of nowhere.
I am not looking for a big arrow offensive. I think they are very risky and thwart with problems. With American satellites, AWACS, Drones, anything big gets immediately spotted. However, a limited offensive from Luhansk, Sumy or Kharkov region seems appropriate. If I had to choose, I would go with Sumy. This is very hard region for the Ukrainians to defend. The logistics is a nightmare. As everything Ukraine does is for PR they could not possibly countenance the loss of a city the size of Sumy. Ukraine would be forced to send reserves there. Russia need not try to occupy the city, merely threaten it.
On one hand it's true about the Kharkov offensive, but one must remember that the Kharkov offensive resulted in no real losses. Even Ukrainians at their highest estimates claimed to have captured somewhere in the range of 20-50 tanks (from my memory) and this was wildly inflated by a few fake videos showing a disused Crimean tank base which they tried to pass off as an entire base full of 'abandoned vehicles'. The retreat from Kharkov region had almost no attritional effect on Russian forces whatsoever, and in fact the Russian side claims AFU lost thousands in their push. Even if we assume for argument's sake that that's exaggeration and let's just say to play devil's advocate that neither side lost much--all we're left with is a hand over of territory. And if you read my original article https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-2023
you'll know why it happened, because Russia so far has used a FAR tinier force in the SMO than most people think (less than 100k) and so there were certain 'crumple zones' that were simply indefensible and were held only on hope that no strikes would come there.
Now the Russian army has reached rough numerical parity (plus or minus a few) and so such lopsided overruns are not really possible anymore. Of course there's some remote possibility that Kiev has stealth-mobilized a far larger force in the west of the country than any of us can imagine, and some do claim this (I've heard 1.2 million 'rumors' now, etc), but of course the chances of that are very low.
The service ceiling for most types of fighter aircraft are usually WELL above civilian air-liners 40kft.
A bomb "lob-toss" profile (necessary for surviving tac-nuke drops of yor, so a 60 or more year old technique) could easily have a glide bomb peak at 70-80k altitude. You might want to recalibrate your thinking there.. I see the SU-57 "Felon" can drop the "Drill" anti-tank bomblet carrier...wonder what the production rate on the "Drill" might be now...??
Could be--not much is known on these bombs yet in practice and either way such altitudes are sort of moot for now due to Ukraine's long range anti-air capabilities like BUK and S-300 so it's still very dangerous to fly that high as a Russian Su-34 recently learned only 3 days ago (new one was shot down over Donetsk this weekend)
Talking about disparate pieces of news, in today's Financial Time, which is the globalist ideological centre of command, Gideon Richman, who together with Martin Wolff manages that informational stronghold, warns China on a fateful choice to make on Ukraine. Basicaly, China should sever ties with Russia in order to be allowed to keep its industrial power and manufacturing exporting economy. Provided that the Chinese cannot be convinced of such a delusional advice, this can only be interpreted as an order for the European Union to pull off from China and settle in western cheap labour colonies like Korea, Vietnam or Indonesia.
I think the EU (and generally the West) is not ready to cut off China. The entire name of the globalist game is living off cheap Chinese products.
Very true YR, but not only have the West already been doing that for years (offshoring many productions from China to cheaper places like Philipines etc) it's already been ongoing recently as well, for instance just days ago I saw that Apple is apparently about to relocate its premiere iPhone factory from China to India or has already done so, so I'm not sure how much weight the West's threats hold in this regard
Also, the Russia conflict gave China an exact roadmap to how a sanction war will play out
...and US actions of the past two decades have given global nations a road map to how untrustworthy US promises are. To expect China, facing their own deep level of crisis NOW, to sever relations with a very powerful neighbor nation with whom they are building a global geo-political business financial structure, (The BRICS plus) will only accelerate those plans AWAY from the US.
Where are the tchetchens ?
They still appear to be operating just on a lower profile. I just posted a video yesterday of a new prisoner they took. And I recall last month they took a large bounty of prisoners from the Ukraine's famed 'elite' 79th brigade: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Qx0pXe6pmwxy/
This a few days ago: https://www.bitchute.com/video/1YfGNHOtvRIl/
I had written on theories in this article that Chechens might have been ordered to simply keep a 'lower profile' so as not to hog too much limelight: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-223-putin-prigozhin-pmcs-and
That’s what I heard. Can’t wait when german and French troops that hold over 30% of Muslim in their ranks will cheers and rub shoulders with tchetchens on the front line
Those are not T-14 Armata tanks on the railway flatcars, and I should hardly think that photograph was taken on the border of the Rostov region, if “Rostov” means “Rostov-on-Don”, which region having that city as its seat of administration Brain-of-Britain Truss thinks is in the Ukraine, because temperatures there for most of the winter months only occasionally fall below zero Celsius.
Right now at 13:58 Moscow time, the temperature in Rostov-on-Don is plus 9 °C.
REVERSE SIDE OF THE MEDAL is a v Kontakte channel here in Russia.
Yes, those are T-14 Armatas. In fact they're quite simple to distinguish: Armatas are the only tank in the Russian inventory which uniquely has 9 tracked wheels, whereas the T-72 and T-80 have 8 wheels on each tracked side. T-62 and T-64 also have 8.
The Armata was designed with 9 for the first time to accomodate its much larger size, which now puts it in league with the Abrams, Leopard, Challenger, etc which likewise all have 9 owing to their length and size. As you can see in the train video, the tanks have 9 wheels so they're Armatas.
I was referring to this photo at the head of the article.
Where are the "tracked wheels"?
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c79a44-0519-4946-8ff6-a1f197d600cd_604x272.jpeg
Those are Bumerang IFV's. The Armatas are in the linked video right before that.
Right! Got you! Didn't see that video link. And even if I had seen it, I can't view it because it is non-accessible from Darkest Mordor, where I am resident.
Interesting, Bitchute is not accessible in Russia at all?
D.M. Pennington
08:45 (12 minutes ago)
I can't get it on Yandex browser. I might be able to get it on Chrome, using a VPN. I shall give it a try.
D.M. Pennington <moscowexile@gmail.com>
08:57 (1 minute ago)
to forum+1r31s6&ygc6y&7z541&d9d1941578db25b95f59a06d6e4eae0629fdd39bf7bf2f7765545e786b3561f8
Non-accessible here on Chrome as well. I then used a VPN on Chrome and saw the Bitchute video. I sincerely doubt that that clip was shot in the Rostov oblast. meaning Rostov-on-Don. The winters there are quite mild, and if they do get a snowfall there, it quickly thaws after a few days. However, it could have been shot in the region of the other Rostov northeast of Moscow, "Great Rostov", which is still under snow, as is Moscow right now.
"it is non-accessible from Darkest Mordor, where I am resident."
Mordor on the Potomac?
Nah — Mordor on the Moskva, the Orc capital.
I was like "9 wheels? I thought the Armata had 7 road wheels..?" Then I had the aha moment...Simplicius is counting the drive and idler sprockets as wheels... the internet nit-pickers will downgrade his blog pronouncements accordingly!
Another example of why you can't win a war with an army of (almost entirely) slaves. Everyone who was willing to die for the Kiev regime is out there fighting, or already dead. All they have left is scraps they are trying to gather, especially from minority groups. Eerily familiar to the 1945 ramp-up of deporting minorities by a vaguely related regime after the German collapse was all but certian...
Just bring it to an end already! How many people have to die conpletely pointlessly, just to prolong the war by a few months?
What worries me is that Biden/Blinken/Nuland are aggressive narcissists that cannot fail. That means they will double and triple down after each debacle they create. I have been wondering for over a week now as to what their next scheme is. Even though anything they do will fail, they will desperately try nonetheless. Let's just hope that it does not drag neighbors into the fray and widen the war further.
Of course. And this is why I repeatedly try to warn people not to take my SEEMINGLY rosy broad strokes as guarantee of easy victory. Sure I heap a lot of praise in my writing on the Russian/Allied forces and duly so, in many areas. But of course NATO/West have many other levers and pressure points to continue escalating and this is not over by a long shot; there are still extreme dangers remaining. Nor is Russia completely in the clear in any way, they are also suffering from MAJOR problems on every conceivable front. From internal military dissatisfaction, arms/ammo supply issues, liberal 5th/6th column wings doing everything in their power to end the SMO, etc, etc. This is NOT as clear cut as it sometimes sounds.
With that said it's quite obvious what NATO's one true trump card is, which is a nuke/biological falseflag which would be pretext for ingressing their forces under pretext of 'humanitarian intervention' or 'creating humanitarian corridor to help the nuked/chem'd civilians' flee to neighboring country etc.
I think that many expect a false flag type action that provides cause for further escalation, but even the demented and clueless Biden administration must have some internal contrarians that have enumerated the massive downsides to spreading this war wider, or engaging with NATO troops directly. So despite their apparent obliviousness, they must have heard the RAND Corps list of caveats and warnings, and I am sure there are plenty in the military that are not eager to ramp this up further. I expect that in the near term one main strategy will be to quietly encourage more mercenaries from NATO countries to "do their duty for freedom" and pay their own way to Ukraine to wage war on the infidels. This has clearly been a background tactic for some time, and will probably be encouraged further.
We will see if they have the sheer stupidity to give Russia reason to change tactics again and massively escalate their long-range warfare to another level. The US and NATO are in a bit of a bind due to the lack of support among their populaces. So the sneaky route might be more tenable than a major false flag incident. We shall soon see.
Wall Street Journal: “US Is Not Yet Ready for Great Power Conflict” Yet Still Plots Against China.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/wall-street-journal-us-is-not-yet-ready-for-great-power-conflict-yet-still-plots-against-china.html
5th and 6th columns for opposite reasons:
-5th column, aka oligarchs and Courchevel, Marbella, London lovers want life back as before 02/24(they can dream, will not happen before one or two generations).
-6th column, they want full war not only against ukies but to bomb London, Brussels and D C.