Could be. But generally you want to take the weakest link first and keep tumbling the house of cards one weak link at a time. And Chasov Yar isn't a weak link because it's surrounded on all sides by friendly (to AFU) territory. But Seversk is in a bad spot because the north is up against a river with no escape, the south and east will be…
Could be. But generally you want to take the weakest link first and keep tumbling the house of cards one weak link at a time. And Chasov Yar isn't a weak link because it's surrounded on all sides by friendly (to AFU) territory. But Seversk is in a bad spot because the north is up against a river with no escape, the south and east will be blocked, leaving only the west to escape. So Seversk may be the easiest natural domino to topple next
Seversk - that sounds tempting but ....1/ Seversk didn't fall in summer 2022 when RUS army controlled the area north of Donec river. Yes, one may object that now it partly controls the area between Artemovsk and Seeversk. 2/ Launching big offensive against one point has the drawbacks well described in article on C4ISR few days ago - concentration of attacker's troops in front of all seeing eyes of NATO satellites. And UKR still has some artillery available.
What if the idea is to start pushing through Avdiyevka (why else the heavy air bombings?), Mariinka (RUS pincer attack underway), Ugledar (do 2 Russian brigades keep 5 UKR brigades busy there? If yes it is a good result.) and Toreck and keep the offensive in Kharkov direction slowly moving on and slowly liquidate UKR troops in Artemovsk salient? The advantages of this approach 1/ No changes needed on Kharkov axis where RUS forces enjoy material and human power adantage and fight in forest, partly hidden from NATO satellites 2/ Slow liquidation of Artemovsk salient keeps all UKR troops there, they can't move away to launch any offensive 3/ Attacks on axis Avdiyevka, Mariinka, Ugledar, Toreck will force UKR command to move all reserves and in that area 4/ That will create huge concentration of UKR troops on rather small area of Donbas, another potential Artemovsk-style boiler 5/ RUS forces aparantly do not want to fight on Zaporozhie axis as it is uphill and in open terrain (I hope I am not wrong here I didn't check maps much).
One more idea. If the data from Wagner - RUS Army Gen Staff dispute (it maybe just a psyop) are correct then Wagner spends 18 000 shells a day. If few days later Artemovsk boiler is kept at "lower temperature" Wagner may save 9000 shells which may be redirected somewhere else in Donbas. 9000 pieces are a lot if used on narrow sector of the front. UKR units will be kept stuck in and around Artemovsk because UKR will try to keep the defence line and because the Rasputica king will prevent them from moving on unpaved filed roads for next 6 to 8 weeks. The only area where battle fields are still frozen is Kharkov axis. Or the saved shells will be stocked for spring adventure in Donbas area.
I dunno, I'm skeptical of any breakthroughs in that area you describe because it's a highly settlement-dense and road-dense area with an intricate and OLDEST network of fortifications due to the fact that that contact line has remained there unmoved for the longest time. Contrast that with areas like Bakhmut where the lines and echelons there are relatively fresh and haven't had years to be built because the contact line was not there at the start of the SMO.
So I am skeptical that any major breakthrough of that sort can be delivered in the Avdeevka/New York/Toresk region. They had 10 years to prepare that area in a similar way as Marinka etc, with underground bunkers, concrete-poured reinforcements for every fortification, etc, etc. The defensive fortifications in area around Bakhmut are much newer and easier to break through and same goes for Seversk etc.
well controlling area north of Seversk may be immaterial due to the river forming natural boundary there anyway, so it's not like AFU forces can escape NORTHward. If Seversk is blocked from south and east, then only way out is the West of it. And 2ndly, Russian forces are now 10km or less from Seversk in the northeast Kremen direction and are slowly inching forward. So it's conceivable that by the time Bakhmut fully falls, they could already have captured the area directly north of Seversk (north of the river)
Could be. But generally you want to take the weakest link first and keep tumbling the house of cards one weak link at a time. And Chasov Yar isn't a weak link because it's surrounded on all sides by friendly (to AFU) territory. But Seversk is in a bad spot because the north is up against a river with no escape, the south and east will be blocked, leaving only the west to escape. So Seversk may be the easiest natural domino to topple next
Seversk - that sounds tempting but ....1/ Seversk didn't fall in summer 2022 when RUS army controlled the area north of Donec river. Yes, one may object that now it partly controls the area between Artemovsk and Seeversk. 2/ Launching big offensive against one point has the drawbacks well described in article on C4ISR few days ago - concentration of attacker's troops in front of all seeing eyes of NATO satellites. And UKR still has some artillery available.
What if the idea is to start pushing through Avdiyevka (why else the heavy air bombings?), Mariinka (RUS pincer attack underway), Ugledar (do 2 Russian brigades keep 5 UKR brigades busy there? If yes it is a good result.) and Toreck and keep the offensive in Kharkov direction slowly moving on and slowly liquidate UKR troops in Artemovsk salient? The advantages of this approach 1/ No changes needed on Kharkov axis where RUS forces enjoy material and human power adantage and fight in forest, partly hidden from NATO satellites 2/ Slow liquidation of Artemovsk salient keeps all UKR troops there, they can't move away to launch any offensive 3/ Attacks on axis Avdiyevka, Mariinka, Ugledar, Toreck will force UKR command to move all reserves and in that area 4/ That will create huge concentration of UKR troops on rather small area of Donbas, another potential Artemovsk-style boiler 5/ RUS forces aparantly do not want to fight on Zaporozhie axis as it is uphill and in open terrain (I hope I am not wrong here I didn't check maps much).
One more idea. If the data from Wagner - RUS Army Gen Staff dispute (it maybe just a psyop) are correct then Wagner spends 18 000 shells a day. If few days later Artemovsk boiler is kept at "lower temperature" Wagner may save 9000 shells which may be redirected somewhere else in Donbas. 9000 pieces are a lot if used on narrow sector of the front. UKR units will be kept stuck in and around Artemovsk because UKR will try to keep the defence line and because the Rasputica king will prevent them from moving on unpaved filed roads for next 6 to 8 weeks. The only area where battle fields are still frozen is Kharkov axis. Or the saved shells will be stocked for spring adventure in Donbas area.
I dunno, I'm skeptical of any breakthroughs in that area you describe because it's a highly settlement-dense and road-dense area with an intricate and OLDEST network of fortifications due to the fact that that contact line has remained there unmoved for the longest time. Contrast that with areas like Bakhmut where the lines and echelons there are relatively fresh and haven't had years to be built because the contact line was not there at the start of the SMO.
So I am skeptical that any major breakthrough of that sort can be delivered in the Avdeevka/New York/Toresk region. They had 10 years to prepare that area in a similar way as Marinka etc, with underground bunkers, concrete-poured reinforcements for every fortification, etc, etc. The defensive fortifications in area around Bakhmut are much newer and easier to break through and same goes for Seversk etc.
well controlling area north of Seversk may be immaterial due to the river forming natural boundary there anyway, so it's not like AFU forces can escape NORTHward. If Seversk is blocked from south and east, then only way out is the West of it. And 2ndly, Russian forces are now 10km or less from Seversk in the northeast Kremen direction and are slowly inching forward. So it's conceivable that by the time Bakhmut fully falls, they could already have captured the area directly north of Seversk (north of the river)