When Russia began its large strikes on Odessa, we all wondered how far the Russian MOD would take things. We saw maps like the following, showing all the container ships heading up the Danube toward Ukrainian ports bordering Romania, and wondered whether Russia would strike those, being so close to the borders of a NATO state:
What beats me is that Russian eco unemployment is a notch above 3% and that they hire like crazy in all sectors. This conflict would have morphed Russia in every way. On the military side by experimenting and winning a convention war with NATO and on the eco side by flipping to all new partners and activity sectors
The Eastern European border states surrounding Ukraine are particularly vulnerable to domestic competition from Ukrainian grain exports. At least part of the grain exported westwards via land from Ukraine and apparently destined to other markets tends to get stuck in Poland, Romania, for example, driving down local prices. This hits the earnings of local farmers and appears to be a sacrifice too far for Ukraine's Eastern European allies.
The missile strike right on the borders of Rumania and Moldavia is also a message to NATO and friends that if any moves are made against Transnistria active support can be given with point accuracy.
You didn't give an option In the vote for NATO to more actively suicide against Russia,barring that, I suspect former UKraine is near collapse,since the matrix media has started to admit that...
You didn't give an option In the vote for NATO to more actively suicide against Russia,barring that, I suspect former UKraine is near collapse,since the matrix media has started to admit that...
Great write up as always, thank you. I really hope Wagner/Belarus create enough of a deterrent to stop Poland from doing anything stupid.
The economic aspect for Russia are going to be massive. Once the war is over they'll have plenty of buyers in the middle east to maintain a massive arms industry. The rebuilding of eastern Ukraine is also going to be a massive boom. That doesn't even include the resources or growth in total population. The Russian economy and military production could quickly become a problem for NATO/US/Israel in Syria and Iran. How the Saudi and Iraqis respond will be telling. The trillion dollar question is how much land Russia will take from Ukraine before they stop.
*) In regards to the grain and some European countries not wanting delivery, APART from low cost and host country being perhaps uncompetitive, does anyone know if there is any concern from those countries over the produces being contaminated via the exploded DU ammo back in May ? 👇🏼👇🏼
[ ❗️🇵🇱Interesting article from Sputnik showing the current level of radiation over Poland.
The radiation cloud is making its way across Europe and will also reach the UK. Of course caused by the explosion of depleted uranium missiles in Khmelnitsky and as warned by experts.]
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* ) Ukraine energy Infrastructure .. has Simplicius previously covered this with any detail? .. I’m curious as how the “Soviets” designed and build a system that doesn’t become a snowflake at the first sign of gunfire. No disrespect to the RF’s complex organization of attacks and the outright success to hinder the AFU, its just that where I live a flock of pelicans crashing into a local substation can knock out power for days,if not longer 🙄
Unconfirmed reports on 2nd Odessa attack were complete failure of civil defence warning system & more importantly, no air defence reaction when military internet links went down for 15 minutes during the Onyx strikes. One video I saw was from Odessa by a citizen filming the explosions who was freaked out that there was no warning & no air defence reaction. Anyone hear similar reports?
So, the other side of this is "why"? Why are the AFU throwing away so many men & machines for relatively small gains? And, if they are taking such losses, how are they able to hold on to them? It has been almost 2 months now, and, as you've pointed out, they HAVE made minor inroads here and there, which means they are able to achieve tactical successes against RuAF. Russia clearly has more strategic patience than I do, but, if they actually want to resolve the conflict the message that "You cannot gain an inch" seems to be one which is worth sending.
And so, perhaps the AFU keeps carrying on because if they stop then its an admission of failure... Or, do they know something we don't?
On drones - every time I see a drone hit an armored vehicle or tank I always think to myself that there just isn't enough ordinance to do any real damage. Then the think starts smoking and is clearly on fire internally. Crazy. I would assume a relatively low % of hits actually result in critical damage like that, but if you have thousands of drones flying all the time you don't really need a high rate. I would imagine your typical IFV or tank takes several hits and shrugs it off.
That Russian general Mordvichev seemed very relaxed, cool, matter of fact. Contrast with the rhetoric infused garbage we hear in English, tells a lot.
Thinking a few steps ahead the important thing is that Russia does everything she can to make the Democrats cancel the upcoming US elections so that a civil war is started in the US. That is the clean way of taking out the West without nuking it. Taking the scraps of Finland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia and threatening Poland should achieve that very nicely. The US won't dare respond in any serious manner because for one thing she can't and for another she has no existential threat from Russia unlike the threat to her from China. WW3 will be fought in North America not in Europe.
Canadian grain hoppers are high capacity & carry 3900 bushels of wheat.
If we assume a 90-car unit train with five cuts of cars, 18 cars each, the following times are consumed in car handling:
5 cuts @ 25 minutes per cut = 125 minutes
90 cars @ 3 minutes per car = 270 minutes
Total = 395 minutes
Total time available for unloading (24 hours) = 1440 minutes
Time available for discharging (1440 min. - 395 min.) = 1045 minutes
1045 minutes / 90 cars = 11.61 minutes per car
3,900 bushels / 11.61 min. = 336 BPM (20,155 BPH)
Loading times will be about the same -if- port infrastructure is intact & is even capable of efficiently reloading rail hoppers, as all ukr handling of grain at ports involves loading ships from rail cars, not to railcars.
If Ukr tries to ship by rail, it will take them forever to reload & transport the quantities they currently have in storage, & will completely tie up locomotives & rail lines needed for logistical supply. They won't even come close to having enough storage capacity for even a reduced crop this year, let alone enough rail capacity to move what they already in storage. They will need many 1000s of hoppers & dedicate many more locomotives to move the huge volumes they produce. This also assumes European ports can handle reverse procedures to ship rather than receive the grain.
IMO- Logistics dictate that ukr is f👀ked if they can't use ships to move the grain, hence zelenskys shite his pants demeanor, as this is Ukraine's major source of revenue besides welfare payments. Time to take out rail bridges en masse.
First. Sorry. couldn't resist!
European farmers don't t want cheap grain from former UKraine lowering the cost and value of what they grow themselves I am told
What beats me is that Russian eco unemployment is a notch above 3% and that they hire like crazy in all sectors. This conflict would have morphed Russia in every way. On the military side by experimenting and winning a convention war with NATO and on the eco side by flipping to all new partners and activity sectors
The Eastern European border states surrounding Ukraine are particularly vulnerable to domestic competition from Ukrainian grain exports. At least part of the grain exported westwards via land from Ukraine and apparently destined to other markets tends to get stuck in Poland, Romania, for example, driving down local prices. This hits the earnings of local farmers and appears to be a sacrifice too far for Ukraine's Eastern European allies.
The missile strike right on the borders of Rumania and Moldavia is also a message to NATO and friends that if any moves are made against Transnistria active support can be given with point accuracy.
You didn't give an option In the vote for NATO to more actively suicide against Russia,barring that, I suspect former UKraine is near collapse,since the matrix media has started to admit that...
You didn't give an option In the vote for NATO to more actively suicide against Russia,barring that, I suspect former UKraine is near collapse,since the matrix media has started to admit that...
Great write up as always, thank you. I really hope Wagner/Belarus create enough of a deterrent to stop Poland from doing anything stupid.
The economic aspect for Russia are going to be massive. Once the war is over they'll have plenty of buyers in the middle east to maintain a massive arms industry. The rebuilding of eastern Ukraine is also going to be a massive boom. That doesn't even include the resources or growth in total population. The Russian economy and military production could quickly become a problem for NATO/US/Israel in Syria and Iran. How the Saudi and Iraqis respond will be telling. The trillion dollar question is how much land Russia will take from Ukraine before they stop.
(👏🏼 Simplicius)
*) In regards to the grain and some European countries not wanting delivery, APART from low cost and host country being perhaps uncompetitive, does anyone know if there is any concern from those countries over the produces being contaminated via the exploded DU ammo back in May ? 👇🏼👇🏼
[ ❗️🇵🇱Interesting article from Sputnik showing the current level of radiation over Poland.
The radiation cloud is making its way across Europe and will also reach the UK. Of course caused by the explosion of depleted uranium missiles in Khmelnitsky and as warned by experts.]
------------
* ) Ukraine energy Infrastructure .. has Simplicius previously covered this with any detail? .. I’m curious as how the “Soviets” designed and build a system that doesn’t become a snowflake at the first sign of gunfire. No disrespect to the RF’s complex organization of attacks and the outright success to hinder the AFU, its just that where I live a flock of pelicans crashing into a local substation can knock out power for days,if not longer 🙄
Unconfirmed reports on 2nd Odessa attack were complete failure of civil defence warning system & more importantly, no air defence reaction when military internet links went down for 15 minutes during the Onyx strikes. One video I saw was from Odessa by a citizen filming the explosions who was freaked out that there was no warning & no air defence reaction. Anyone hear similar reports?
So, the other side of this is "why"? Why are the AFU throwing away so many men & machines for relatively small gains? And, if they are taking such losses, how are they able to hold on to them? It has been almost 2 months now, and, as you've pointed out, they HAVE made minor inroads here and there, which means they are able to achieve tactical successes against RuAF. Russia clearly has more strategic patience than I do, but, if they actually want to resolve the conflict the message that "You cannot gain an inch" seems to be one which is worth sending.
And so, perhaps the AFU keeps carrying on because if they stop then its an admission of failure... Or, do they know something we don't?
On drones - every time I see a drone hit an armored vehicle or tank I always think to myself that there just isn't enough ordinance to do any real damage. Then the think starts smoking and is clearly on fire internally. Crazy. I would assume a relatively low % of hits actually result in critical damage like that, but if you have thousands of drones flying all the time you don't really need a high rate. I would imagine your typical IFV or tank takes several hits and shrugs it off.
That Russian general Mordvichev seemed very relaxed, cool, matter of fact. Contrast with the rhetoric infused garbage we hear in English, tells a lot.
thank you so much.
I do believe that the Ukrainian regime just do not care about the front. The war will continue as long as they can keep getting money from the west.
Didn't Russia say that if Ukraine hit Crimea they will missile Zelensky's ass? Well fuck around and (maybe) find out...
Thinking a few steps ahead the important thing is that Russia does everything she can to make the Democrats cancel the upcoming US elections so that a civil war is started in the US. That is the clean way of taking out the West without nuking it. Taking the scraps of Finland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia and threatening Poland should achieve that very nicely. The US won't dare respond in any serious manner because for one thing she can't and for another she has no existential threat from Russia unlike the threat to her from China. WW3 will be fought in North America not in Europe.
Canadian grain hoppers are high capacity & carry 3900 bushels of wheat.
If we assume a 90-car unit train with five cuts of cars, 18 cars each, the following times are consumed in car handling:
5 cuts @ 25 minutes per cut = 125 minutes
90 cars @ 3 minutes per car = 270 minutes
Total = 395 minutes
Total time available for unloading (24 hours) = 1440 minutes
Time available for discharging (1440 min. - 395 min.) = 1045 minutes
1045 minutes / 90 cars = 11.61 minutes per car
3,900 bushels / 11.61 min. = 336 BPM (20,155 BPH)
Loading times will be about the same -if- port infrastructure is intact & is even capable of efficiently reloading rail hoppers, as all ukr handling of grain at ports involves loading ships from rail cars, not to railcars.
If Ukr tries to ship by rail, it will take them forever to reload & transport the quantities they currently have in storage, & will completely tie up locomotives & rail lines needed for logistical supply. They won't even come close to having enough storage capacity for even a reduced crop this year, let alone enough rail capacity to move what they already in storage. They will need many 1000s of hoppers & dedicate many more locomotives to move the huge volumes they produce. This also assumes European ports can handle reverse procedures to ship rather than receive the grain.
IMO- Logistics dictate that ukr is f👀ked if they can't use ships to move the grain, hence zelenskys shite his pants demeanor, as this is Ukraine's major source of revenue besides welfare payments. Time to take out rail bridges en masse.
Let's find whoever voted that Russia wil lose the war. Give 'em a wedgie!