2 Comments
â­  Return to thread

Canadian grain hoppers are high capacity & carry 3900 bushels of wheat.

If we assume a 90-car unit train with five cuts of cars, 18 cars each, the following times are consumed in car handling:

5 cuts @ 25 minutes per cut = 125 minutes

90 cars @ 3 minutes per car = 270 minutes

Total = 395 minutes

Total time available for unloading (24 hours) = 1440 minutes

Time available for discharging (1440 min. - 395 min.) = 1045 minutes

1045 minutes / 90 cars = 11.61 minutes per car

3,900 bushels / 11.61 min. = 336 BPM (20,155 BPH)

Loading times will be about the same -if- port infrastructure is intact & is even capable of efficiently reloading rail hoppers, as all ukr handling of grain at ports involves loading ships from rail cars, not to railcars.

If Ukr tries to ship by rail, it will take them forever to reload & transport the quantities they currently have in storage, & will completely tie up locomotives & rail lines needed for logistical supply. They won't even come close to having enough storage capacity for even a reduced crop this year, let alone enough rail capacity to move what they already in storage. They will need many 1000s of hoppers & dedicate many more locomotives to move the huge volumes they produce. This also assumes European ports can handle reverse procedures to ship rather than receive the grain.

IMO- Logistics dictate that ukr is f👀ked if they can't use ships to move the grain, hence zelenskys shite his pants demeanor, as this is Ukraine's major source of revenue besides welfare payments. Time to take out rail bridges en masse.

Expand full comment

Thanks for this practical analysis

Expand full comment