Thanks for the post but I put ZERO credance on this "leak". It was released to to the public for a reason and is likely a regurgitation of disinfo info Ukraine provided to NATO. Part of fog of war meant to distract and confuse. Meanwhile, Wagner has taken about 90% of Bahkmut now.
It's clearly a psy ops to mindscrew the Russians into being complacent about this coming offensive. The Nazis can't hide it so the US engaged in a massive disinformation campaign. They are the global experts in bullshitting.
Make no mistakes the Nazi offense will come before end of April. Too much maskarov spread even to normally pro Russian bloggers to proclaim that the Nazis are in no shape to launch any offensive.
Everything actually points to the coming offensive in evidences that really matters.
Take the total number of Nazis that are trained in US, Canada, UK, Europe and the numbers will reach 100k.
Look at Russian MOD daily reports and you'll see no tanks killed, no real AFV killed. Just mobile and static artillery and pickup trucks.
The real stuff is pulled back and gathered for the big push.
The west have always supplied more tanks, artillery, planes than they declared publicly.
So expect at least 600-800 tanks, more than 2k assorted AFVs, and minimum of 500 artillery/rocket.
It's the Nazis last shot as the west has run out of money and ammo to give them. Time is not on their side abd Satan is demanding souls.
I really hope Russia is prepared for this Do or Die
My guess is broad front attacks initially to mask true objective, and later to keep the Russians pinned to the whole front to prevent them from reinforcing the real objective once that's clear.
The nuclear plant is a secondary and much easier objective. Lots of PR and Russia is not going to risk irridiating their soldiers to die defending it. Expect the Nazis to throw 30k at it and Russia to withdraw. That's why the west flooded the Nazis with river fording equipment. After the plant is taken the Nazis will leave 20k to consolidate defences and sent 10k to the real objective. By itself it's a huge PR victory at very low cost. Russia will not risk blowing up the NPP just to defend it. Look for a Russian pull back there.
The real objective? Which is Mariupol and a shot at Crimea. that's 70k and most of the armour and artillery. Spitting distance for Nazi artillery even if they stopped there.
It's certainly possible, but I give it a low probability chance. Like I said, the idea that such leaks could "lull the Russian MoD" into a false sense of security doesn't quite hew to logic due to the fact that Russia can easily verify all these things with its own advanced HUMINT/ISR capabilities. Anything in these documents are things well known already to Russian planners, so making the documents go 'public' would really do nothing at all, unless you REALLY have a low opinion of Russian general staff, etc., which could be understandable.
But like I said I'm not discounting the possibility. I'd put it at 20% chance fake and 80% real.
Also, I forgot to mention that the FULL leaks which are floating around (comprising a lot of other stuff that doesn't have to do with Ukraine) consist of over 100+ pages of heavily dense, very difficult to fake material. So it's very improbable that someone would go all that way in expending effort to craft hundreds of believable pages just for this purpose. They could have just leaked 1 or 2 pretend pages if it was a true pysop.
As other experts have chimed in, the pages are extremely genuine in terms of the military signage, and to have that vast amount of them is just over the top for a psyop.
i am a retired usaf guy, but i have known a number of army officers.
first what i have a feel: reliability of nasam and iris-t (ground launched amraam) in the field is as much an issue as the ordnance being depleted, and where are the parts and where are contractor the technicians?? the systems are turned on and off regularly, which introduces start up failures and the ordnance (wooden rounds stored in their boxes) is checked passively and with energy regularly..... that is if they can get fire solutions to make a shot! these are 'low numbers' systems in usa, norway and germany and repairs are done by contractors because the usa did not buy repair stuff.
i have seen estimates on moon of alibama about somewhat less than 700 main battle tanks and around 1800 infantry fighting vehicles which i recall would be credible given that tanks among infantry need friendly infantry support or rpg's and atgm's kill them all.......
that could be 12 'heavy' brigades bantered about. now how to keep numerous different vehicles with just refurbished systems running when they are deployed most ineffectively in terms of support tail is another issue.
finally, the little i know about mortars is the 120 mm is a good weapon and russia is using them, usa has them as well..... no mention of nato 120 mm?
What is the probability of Russia finally resorting to tactical nukes to stave off a Ukrainian offensive and bring the war to an end? Simplicius the Thinker (a Russian speaker?) seems to have a good grasp on how the internal public discussion in Russia is going, so what is being said about nukes in all kinds of Russian media? I mean, if the objection to nukes is that Russia sympathizers in Ukraine have to be protected, how many of them are left and who are they anyways? Russia is currently using up a great many of its best people to win conventional battles against Ukrainian Nazi scum a the front lines, effectively extending protection to groups of Russians who haven't made it out of Ukraine by now. At the current stage, these Russians are nothing but hostages that Ukraine has chosen to spare up until now or even to kill off by deploying them as cannon fodder. Hence the cannon fodder portion is not even being protected. In general they must be very old, or sick, or poor, or dumb, or stubborn, or sentimental for them to have stayed where they are. Stubborness can be good thing, especially its Russian variety, but there is always a threshold beyond which even the best characteristics can become detrimental. It seems to me that the biggest real objections to using tactical nukes are diplomatic, a.k.a. how would the hitherto sympathetic Global South react to Russia crossing the nuclear threshold, and purely military, a.k.a. how would NATO escalate in response? At this point, the Russian propaganda effort or lack thereof is coming into play. For all of Putin's qualities, he is not a good speaker, certainly not when it comes to addressing audiences outside Russia. He has difficulties making very precise points, owing to what feels like a typically Russian, somewhat meandering and indirect way of expressing himself. If Putin and other Russian figures could explain themselves to the world more succinctly and pointedly, then that might go a long way towards bringing home the message about what the Russians are dealing with in Ukraine, and why this war has to be brought to an end even by using tactical nukes.
Medvedev (bad cop role) is much more direct and agressive, very active on Twitter and all social media.Putin is not on social media (pr is busy enough).Nukes have zero interest in Ukraine even on near nato places countries as counter effects and wind circulation in Europe is from west to east, though to one point it will have catastrophic consequences. Same near Belarus this is just pure MAD (don't even dare to otherwise..).RU using nukes first would mean the end of the Global South solidarity forever with only one exception if NATO first strike Russia then everyone in the GS would understand it. But it will not happen as Sarmat and co or even good old ICBM are ready.Even neocons want to live not die.
Russia has no need to employ tactical nukes in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are already defeated - just a matter of time now. Using a tactical nuke at this stage would be far more harmful politically than any gains. However, I would not discount the possibility that NATO would use a nuke as a false flag against Russia, hoping to gain instant global support for a quick ceasefire to cool things down in hopes of forcing Russia into a compromise solution to end the war. Of course, having already destroyed all trust the Russians have in the 'West, this would not work as Russia is determined to demilitarise and de-nazify the Ukraine regime in Kiev and will not be deterred. The Russians will likely overrun the entirety of Ukraine, install a military/civilian junta to rule until a proper Russia-friendly government can be established - one that will continue the de-nazification effort to its end as was done in East Germany at the end of WWII (de-nazification of West Germany was never successful as is evidenced by the current regime).
I have to disagree. Why on earth would Russia have to change their approach at all. They're executing an approach of slowly grinding down the Ukrainian military like a cat plays with a mouse. Any kind of radioactive scenario, whether depleted uranium, 'tactical' nukes is completely out of the question due to negative press, environmental damage. They will not do it. Period.
Regarding the Russian politicians - either you haven't seen them speak or you're just not good at understanding them. I find that I relish their clear, concise, truthful, never changing approach to this hostile situation.
"For all of Putin's qualities, he is not a good speaker, certainly not when it comes to addressing audiences outside Russia. He has difficulties making very precise points, owing to what feels like a typically Russian, somewhat meandering and indirect way of expressing himself. "
Anyone that has watched VVPs speeches would know you are talking bollocks.
The first sentence in the form of a question in your post makes me distrust everything you posit. Russia does not need to utilize tactical nukes… you are trying to scare/sway readers in bit more subliminal fashion than other psyop posters on this substack. Scare, then compliment. Seek info while pretending to try to understand Russian consensus on tact nukes. Use part of the substack domain owner for your handle is meant to stroke his ego. And I’m sure he’s not buying anything you have to say either. Your real last name wouldn’t be Chalupa or Kagan or Podesta? Asking for a concerned friend who is amazed at your brilliance as opposed to myself.
https://youtu.be/QE25i5k5eWs I had to go find this. In under 2 minutes. All discussion on all blogs regarding the Ukraine-1000km-front conflict summarized clearly, concisely and calmly. " he is not a good speaker"
I'm disagreeing yet again. Fact. And on top of that, as he said, it is unfolding in front of our eyes, on schedule together with China, India, Iran, Saudis, Turkey,many states in Africa. Enough said.
The Russians don't believe anything leaked by the U.S. government; only Americans do. So the leak is clearly aimed at the American public. Which means its just more propaganda and not worth doing a deep dive on.
The leaks are probably part of the process to prepare the US public for abandoning Ukraine, hence the info is probably real. They'll probably also throw Zelensky under the bus by painting the Ukraine military as not having provided accurate info to its allies, not having followed NATO sensible plans, etc...
“The leaks are probably part of the process to prepare the US public for abandoning Ukraine”.
None of the commenters I read have suggested this but to me it’s the explanation that makes the most sense.
The offensive will happen (*) and it’s going to be a catastrophe, impossible to sweep under the carpet. The optics are going to be even worse that the retreat from Afghanistan.
At least that didn’t happen as a result of a single military event, one day the US were there, the next they weren’t and the US trained Afghan army disappeared without a fight. But this…is going to be more dramatic and provide hundreds of images of very expensive, burnt western materiel. The public has to be put on notice.
* or, as some are saying, it’s a way to help the US wash their hands off the offensive and start wrapping up the whole circus.
"the Pentagram has confirmed the validity of the documents, as they panickedly trying to scrub the internet of the documents"
It's just too damn hard for the Pentagon to scrub the net. Boo hoo, I'm going to cry. And WTF is Musk shutting down accounts for? Watch this get used to push the RESIST Act.
All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?
Have you ever noticed that every US actor/president were given GalaxyTM toward the end of their term. As far back as Dubya Bush. Forgetting, slurring, mixing up words - Obummer too. Maybe the same fate awaits Zee?
“All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?”.
I can’t think of two reasons:
1. This is precisely for the benefit of those who until now didn’t care to know and followed the propaganda dutifully (but now need to be brought onboard), and
2. Following from the above, the “leak” rigmarole (including the use of the MSM) both gives credibility to the info (because the propagandised will disbelieve) and saves the government the embarrassment of having to be the messenger.
Fine. Talk PERJURY. Most people are familiar with how that applies. If one starts debating whether or not a given NYTimes article has some validity, one falls into the Gellman trap. One can't play on their table without getting owned.. That is a key part to bringing someone on board.
All I can say as always Simplicius is Wow! What a wealth of information. 10-4 on the 'maskirovka' I tend to think. Keep them up at night guessing, and they'll still get it wrong (or right), however one looks at it. Great work bro.
Even if this "leak" is a psyop or disinformation ploy, it still contains mostly accurate information by Simplicius' and a few others' observations and analysis. However, there is a psyop angle that I'm not sure is being considered and that is that this leak was allowed to happen because someone high up in NATO or the Pentagram are ready to see this thing end, and they want analysts like our host to highlight and call out the futility of the Ukro-Nazis and what exists in NATO support for the big "Spring Offensive" (proper noun, you see!) - so that it ends up not happening and negotiations begin. I suppose this scenario could be covered in part by the "disgruntled" employee theory, but I'm thinking it's coming from much higher up.
But another thing is that even if the Pentagram and Joe Bidet are supposedly scrambling to erase these documents from the Internet, that too could be just another part of the psyop. Let's make it look like we really don't want this stuff out there!
This is exactly my first/gut feeling. If it's real it was leaked to force a change in NATO posturing, delay the offensive, or try and get a negotiated solution.
I heard of a strange meeting between Blinken and Lavrov.Supposed to be to talk about the real/fake journo/spy who was arrested by fsb last week (from WSJ).Macron went to Beijing with the EU clique in chief it ended up in a total disaster(even the most rabbit pro ukro msm are saying so, using the wording 'total failure', 'disaster').Lula Brazil PM is slowly falling on the right side after some hesitations and said ''nato has nothing to do at Russia borders'( “It is not necessary to have a war,” Lula said on Thursday, adding that the EU and the US were too quick to back Kiev instead of trying to deescalate the situation. “We think that the developed world, especially the EU and the US, had the option not to enter the war the way they did, so fast, without spending time trying to negotiate,” he said.)...I guess comrade XI gave him a call before?..Blinken today: we don't know what Ukraine really wants to do even about Crimea...and tonight talk of a false flag coming (it is always during the week end courtesy of SAS uk + SBU).
Interdepartmental Coordinating Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine
❗️ According to available data, confirmed by several independent sources, under the leadership of the office of the President of Ukraine, a large-scale provocation is being prepared aimed at discrediting the Russian Federation in the international arena
◽️ In order to divert the attention of the international community from the facts of numerous war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army and militants of nationalist formations published by the UN, the Kiev regime has planned a special information campaign.
◽️ For its implementation, over the past two weeks in the village of Akhtyrka, Sumy region, an alleged section of the "front line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the line of contact with Russian troops" has been prepared.
◽️ It is planned to deliver the bodies and remains of the dead Ukrainian servicemen from mortuaries to the equipped pseudo-positions, whose death occurred allegedlyas a result of fire damage by "Russian" artillery ammunition, equipped with " toxic substances."
◽️ The Kyiv regime provides for the treatment of this area and the remains of Ukrainian servicemen with a poisonous substance. This will allow invited experts from Western countries, currently on the territory of Ukraine, to document the alleged “use of “chemical weapons” by the Russian armed forces”.
◽️ In order to make the provocation more credible withUkraine’s special services were instructed to prepare and publish on social networks fake radio interceptions of alleged discussions by Russian military personnel of preparations for the use of “chemical weapons”, as well as fabricated orders to receive special ammunition for installations of the MLRS "Grad".
◽️ According to the plan of the Kiev regime, this provocation will allow launching another media campaign in the Western media to discredit the Russian Federation, including trying to initiate a meeting of the UN Security Council with the corresponding accusations of the Russian side.
This is hugely embarrassing for the Biden administration. Trump’s campaign is going to have a field day with this. It reveals incompetence at the highest levels. If it's a PSY-OP, it's self-defeating.
Secret documents that appear to detail American national security secrets on Ukraine, the Middle East and China have surfaced online.
A new batch of classified documents that appear to detail American national security secrets from Ukraine to the Middle East to China surfaced on social media sites on Friday, alarming the Pentagon and adding turmoil to a situation that seemed to have caught the Biden administration off guard.The scale of the leak — analysts say more than 100 documents may have been obtained — along with the sensitivity of the documents themselves, could be hugely damaging, officials said. A senior intelligence officials called the leak “a nightmare for the Five Eyes,” in a reference to the United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, the so-called Five Eyes nations that broadly share intelligence.The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites on Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an assessment of Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, said the leak of the classified documents represents “a significant breach in security” that could hinder Ukrainian military planning. “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” he said.
It is so hard to believe that an administration run by the most corrupt, stupid, dementia-laden "President" ever to occupy the office would display such incompetence - said no one ever
Such nonsense! Give them (FBI, DOD, DOJ, WH) a few days and they'll present proof that all of these highly classified documents were stolen from an unsecure storage locker at Mar-a-Lago. Yep, you got that right ... it's all Trump's fault! </sarcasm>
It is indeed hard to believe for the NPR-listening, New York Times-reading, CNN-watching masses — and their numbers are legion. What’s happening now can only help wake them up — some of them, at least.
Brainwashed people have been conditioned to disregard any negative news as "Just Russian disinfo" (and not just regarding Ukraine, but also Hunter Biden laptop, etc.).
Non-brainwashed people don't vote for him anyways.
Also, the facts on the ground don't matter, either. It doesn't matter how many KIA Ukraine has suffered, it could be 17k, it could be 70k, it could be 400k. People don't have any reference for these numbers. This is why the Brittish DOD can say Russia has 180k KIA or whatever, and people will go "Oh yeah, that totally makes sense. Russians very stupid, very bad, they send barely trained, barely equipped human wave attacks to be slaightered by Ukrainian machine guns, like in that novie about Stalingrad, where they only gave a rifle to every other soldier. Of course they lose many more soldiers than Ukraine."
Western governments no longer need to filter, censor and gatekeep the news from the public, because they trained the public to disregard any unorthodox information as conspiracy theory nonsense or propaganda.
Western societies have been demoralised and destabilized completely.
I recall back at the onset of winter when the NYTimes printed a fairly long article about how the Russians are ill prepared to fight a war in winter. They didn't even have warm jackets! Absolutely unreal how our media gets away with outright lies that don't even pass the smell test and too many Americans don't even think about it. I mean really, I don't have any special information about Russia's war preparations but I do know that Russia gets very very cold in winter and Russia has been fighting wars in the winter ever since Russia started fighting wars. Next they'll tell us that Canadians don't know how to dress for snow - and the idiots will believe them.
The people who will read the NYT, WaPo, or watch CNN, or Fox will call bullshit on the BLM riots, or orher things they can actually verify false, but will trust those same lying news outlets on a topic they have no expertise in.
All humans default to trust, because living in constant paranoia and suspicion is not healthy. It's the price we pay for being normal.
Humans default to trust because in our history, we had no choice but to do so. As hunter gatherers, you had to stick with the tribe because if you didn't, you were cast out and that meant near certain death. Back then, the tribe might have been wrong sometimes but not too often because if they were wrong, they might get the tribe killed by a predator or another tribe or a bacteria or drought, etc. Today, the "tribe" can be entirely wrong, mislead and deliberately lie and most of the followers don't end up dead. So we have a mismatch between what we evolved to do and what is required of us in the modern world. In the modern world, we shouldn't default to trusting the "tribe" because there are few consequences for them if they are wrong - and not going along with the "tribe" rarely results in death for the people who dissent.
If what you say it’s true then people have less imagination and compassion than suspected. 200 000 is more or less the population of my hometown. That’s what it means to me, everybody that occupies every single building in a decent sized city dead. You put every corpse on top of each other and you have a small hill of suffering.
I keep asking myself, what happens if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? What then? Do the idiot Neocons (but I repeat myself) in Washington DC just give up? Or do they send all they have and send US troops? And will the American people be on board for that? I suspect half the country will support such action. And how does that end? Wouldn't you prefer a good game of chess?
On the recent Scott Horton podcast with Jeffrey Sachs, Scott hypothesizes that the plan was for Russia to quickly take Kiev and then they could initiate the Afghanistan strategy of insurgency to bleed Russia dry just the way that it worked against the Soviets in Afghanistan. It was only when Russia didn't take Kiev in the first weeks of the war that the strategy had to shift. I have to ask everyone looking at this war one simple question. If Biden and Putin sat down and played a game of chess, who would win? I suspect Putin knew full well that was a possible trap.
Poles are ready and are next canon fodders, ZE went to Warsaw two days ago and said 'there will soon be no more borders between our two nations'..not so sure all Poles will love that.
There is a big election soon in Poland maybe Duda (who is UK London bitch) is betting on:'' I'm the one who will increase Poland territory and population'', from the Baltic to the Black Sea( ok but what about so precious ''ukraine territorial integrity'' we are hearing on a daily basis for 14 months?..He is the next crazy after ZE with also lilliput Lithuania. France and even more Germany will NEVER accept that as their importance in the EU would decrease.Always count on Poles to fuck the all thing up and create discord in EU NATO..perfect for us.
The whole "no borders between our nations" statement got me thinking. If President Doo-Dah has delusions of bringing back the Polish empire by incorporating western Ukraine...he has been duped. Poland is already being Ukrainianized; there's what, over 1 million Ukrainians there already? When Biden made his visit, it was all Ukie flags and yellow & blue lights. If it gets to that point, and western Ukraine & Poland "merge", Poland will cease to exist, it will become New Ukraine. The Ukrainian Borg Collective will move right in, insert themselves in government, politics, the military, with lightning speed. The US will dump money into NGOs for them to get into "civil society" and media. Before Doo-Dah knows what's happened, Ukrainian teachers will be teaching Polish children how the brave Banderites saved them from the evil Soviets & Baba Yar was done by Red Army soldiers in stolen uniforms. The Ukies will do what they do best - infiltrate, subvert and subjugate with their special brand of emotional blackmail. They've got everyone in a psychological chokehold - including the US.
I said on moon right after Surovikin was promoted that there's no reason to waste gas driving to the enemy when they keep coming to you. I also mentioned that he worked closely with the late General Soleimani, so expect to see the most being made with available resources. Prigozhin's comments regarding Artymovosk/Bakhmut seem to confirm this.
That having been said, I agree that it's logical to use more wave attacks to drain what's left of the AD and clobber militarily significant targets. I would think that more and more glide bombs and lancets will be used. It's also logical to assume Russia is building up its space assets, so the C4ISR situation should gradually improve for them. The problem in using the current NATO advantage in that department to attack where the allied forces are weakest is that Russia expects this. Just like Iran did to the MeK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, they're gonna get massacred.
one other possibility is that it could be Ukraine with their backers in the West itself leaking this info, by painting a dire urgent need to get more money and weapons from Western sources or else all is lost.
First of all, congratulations on all your analyses being so spot on. Really remarkable!
(I am not a paid subscriber but I used the tip jar. Thank you for all the information!)
Second, I suspect somebody leaked these documents on purpose to influence public opinion. NATO has fought this war through propaganda first of all, and maybe the intent of this is to get NATO politicians/citizens to panic and do something drastic. Because it really looks bad for the Ukraine.
Neocons already killed millions (directly and indirectly by sanctions) in the Middle East they don't care as long as their official forces are not the one dying.
They don't care about Ukraine and ukrainians, the least of their preoccupations. Poland + 3B were this week pushing for Ukraine in nato soon. Suddenly the US said no way (Hungary and Germany as well). There will never be a Ukraine in the EU as well, the millions who left will not come back(to work for peanuts if any work).The West is not going to pay pensions, salaries etc of Ukraine forever, their population will not tolerate that very long.
Many of those "lives lost" were lowlife NAZI worshipping scum and deserve death. They certainly do not deserve pity, sympathy or any denomination's prayers.
So is someone going to do a summary of all that for us? Just the main points.
How many troops does each side have? (and will have in say, one or two months)
How many deaths have there been?
Which force, if either, has clear military superiority?
And perhaps some informed information on the military requirements regarding 'major offensives' by which I mean it would appear that a major offensive in the first place requires large numbers simply to penetrate the opposing force. And that seems to be where all the discussion is and the numbers quoted. But does not the problem increase as 'success' grows, rather than decrease? For aren't the fronts now longer? And isn't the successful penetrating thrust now surrounded on three sides? And isn't the logistics chain longer and more vulnerable? And doesn't the territory gained drain men and material simply to hold it, garrison it?
And don't all such offensives really require a 'benevolent' target because of all the above? ( I just made up that term. I mean that if you head to join your own forces when you get there you are stronger. Or if you aim to conquer a population and stores, factories, that you can use, you are stronger when you get there. 'Benevolent' targets. Advantageous. But surely Kiev has mainly nowhere like that for any offensive to aim for, to arrive at. The nearest such would be something like Mariupol. But that then would be a hostile city and the likelihood of gaining it after what we've seen of the difficulty of gaining such as Bakhmut would seem very, very slender.
So: what sense in offensives in this scenario anyway?
In the beginning this was Kiev's war of conquest. They invaded Donbas. They are trying to maintain their invasion. If you see what I mean. A far different thing, I would think, than actually repelling invaders and gaining back your own as they ludicrously claim to be doing.
Any offensive is an attempt to perpetuate and increase the success of the preceding offensive, attack and occupation. Doesn't the situation and the history make it plain that offensive, that invasion, was largely unsuccessful when they were at their strongest?
The West needs a justification for the money + weapons given, at least a last try...''you know we did the maximum to help blablabla''...and no more budget after aug 23.
I would like to think so. But that rests on the assumption there is 'a west' and that it has some rationality. I don't think there is a West - only the USA. And I don't think it is rational. And it think the biggest part of its dreamworld lunacy is its belief that all it has to do to fix anything is print more money. Money literally means nothing to them.
And by 'them' I constantly talk as though I mean America which is 350 million Americans but of course I don't, I mean that tiny, tiny handful of insane hereditary plutocrats that run the place while the people sleep.
If the people wake up things might be different. Would be, certainly. But they show no signs of it.
If the plutocrats suddenly begin to see some value in money that would scare the daylights out of them and make a difference.
Until then there's no rationality for there's no counting the cost, there's never any cost benefit, there's never any value. And in their mad castle things look very different to them.
For instance they know the billions they 'spend' on the war are actually spent on their manufacturers of arms. It's just a movement of money from the poor to the rich in the American tradition.
And Europe and Ukraine etc. are not 'here', they are 'there' - in that far distance realm beyond the waters from whence can never come any harm to us.
Brings me to the third thing that could change things, nearly forgot it. If America itself got attacked. I know that cannot happen in America despite the 911 thing but it still can happen virtually. If their 700 bases start getting interdicted there'd be panic in Washington and a sea change in the whole nation, plutocrats down to homeless on the streets.
I fully agree about the US but in Europe ukraine fatigue is increasing fast.Inflation is not acceptable for more and more people and as Opec + will decrease production at least till the end of 2023, it means even more inflation and loss of buying power for many people.The EU can not print (QE) like crazies in the US, debts are very high, some banks collapsing or not far from..Next winter will be problematic for natgaz in quantity and in pricing(4 x more than before).Industries, shops are closing, unemployment rising even if the govts fake all stats.Food (fruits and vegetables are becoming luxurious items) for the popular (poorest class) and even the lower middle class.This week in my country, story of lawyer and doctor (GP) asking financial aid at municipal social services(never seen before).
In Europe we don't live or survive on multiple credit cards as in the US.It is very hard to get one, your incomes are triple checked by the banks.Which in summary means: politicos will feel much more pressure(strikes) in 2023 and we have elections in 2024 in many countries...
Authenticity is a moot point as it won't affect Russian strategy in the least. Fact is, Ukr is euchered by NATO & vice versa. I can't even begin to imagine fighting a war severely undermanned while arming, maintaining & repairing this dog's breakfast of recycled/reject 1960-90s eqmt. I'll bet Ukr is regretting selling their once massive Soviet ammo & weapon stock (Georgia 07-08 for 1 example) for quick cash the past 30 years. Until recently Ukr was top 10 worldwide in military exports, now they're begging & demanding. I still wouldn't put it past them to be desperate enough to attack Transnitria for the old ammo Soviet ammo dumps. Ukr shouldn't have started a fight with Ukr/Russian coal miners without expecting RF to put an end to it.
For those who would like to see the documents as they were downloaded from the original Telegram channel reveal, I have them on my Google Drive, the link to the folder containing them is:
I bow down with admiration from your remarkable analysis; by far the most exhaustive I have come across. Unless one is endowed with psychic abilities, there is no telling the reality. I am not an expert in military matters (only served one year as mandatory duty) but I would not want to be in the AFU’s position; one cannot even fathom the amount of artillery firepower that Russia will throw at them once the counteroffensive starts!
Slava Rossiya and the multipolar shift from Switzerland
Thanks for the post but I put ZERO credance on this "leak". It was released to to the public for a reason and is likely a regurgitation of disinfo info Ukraine provided to NATO. Part of fog of war meant to distract and confuse. Meanwhile, Wagner has taken about 90% of Bahkmut now.
The Pentagon has now confirmed the validity of the documents.
It's clearly a psy ops to mindscrew the Russians into being complacent about this coming offensive. The Nazis can't hide it so the US engaged in a massive disinformation campaign. They are the global experts in bullshitting.
Make no mistakes the Nazi offense will come before end of April. Too much maskarov spread even to normally pro Russian bloggers to proclaim that the Nazis are in no shape to launch any offensive.
Everything actually points to the coming offensive in evidences that really matters.
Take the total number of Nazis that are trained in US, Canada, UK, Europe and the numbers will reach 100k.
Look at Russian MOD daily reports and you'll see no tanks killed, no real AFV killed. Just mobile and static artillery and pickup trucks.
The real stuff is pulled back and gathered for the big push.
The west have always supplied more tanks, artillery, planes than they declared publicly.
So expect at least 600-800 tanks, more than 2k assorted AFVs, and minimum of 500 artillery/rocket.
It's the Nazis last shot as the west has run out of money and ammo to give them. Time is not on their side abd Satan is demanding souls.
I really hope Russia is prepared for this Do or Die
My guess is broad front attacks initially to mask true objective, and later to keep the Russians pinned to the whole front to prevent them from reinforcing the real objective once that's clear.
The nuclear plant is a secondary and much easier objective. Lots of PR and Russia is not going to risk irridiating their soldiers to die defending it. Expect the Nazis to throw 30k at it and Russia to withdraw. That's why the west flooded the Nazis with river fording equipment. After the plant is taken the Nazis will leave 20k to consolidate defences and sent 10k to the real objective. By itself it's a huge PR victory at very low cost. Russia will not risk blowing up the NPP just to defend it. Look for a Russian pull back there.
The real objective? Which is Mariupol and a shot at Crimea. that's 70k and most of the armour and artillery. Spitting distance for Nazi artillery even if they stopped there.
It's certainly possible, but I give it a low probability chance. Like I said, the idea that such leaks could "lull the Russian MoD" into a false sense of security doesn't quite hew to logic due to the fact that Russia can easily verify all these things with its own advanced HUMINT/ISR capabilities. Anything in these documents are things well known already to Russian planners, so making the documents go 'public' would really do nothing at all, unless you REALLY have a low opinion of Russian general staff, etc., which could be understandable.
But like I said I'm not discounting the possibility. I'd put it at 20% chance fake and 80% real.
Also, I forgot to mention that the FULL leaks which are floating around (comprising a lot of other stuff that doesn't have to do with Ukraine) consist of over 100+ pages of heavily dense, very difficult to fake material. So it's very improbable that someone would go all that way in expending effort to craft hundreds of believable pages just for this purpose. They could have just leaked 1 or 2 pretend pages if it was a true pysop.
As other experts have chimed in, the pages are extremely genuine in terms of the military signage, and to have that vast amount of them is just over the top for a psyop.
Could it be a Chinese leak?
Do you know where I can find the full leak?
Will you give readers your resume, with commentary, or the whole leaks later?
i am a retired usaf guy, but i have known a number of army officers.
first what i have a feel: reliability of nasam and iris-t (ground launched amraam) in the field is as much an issue as the ordnance being depleted, and where are the parts and where are contractor the technicians?? the systems are turned on and off regularly, which introduces start up failures and the ordnance (wooden rounds stored in their boxes) is checked passively and with energy regularly..... that is if they can get fire solutions to make a shot! these are 'low numbers' systems in usa, norway and germany and repairs are done by contractors because the usa did not buy repair stuff.
i have seen estimates on moon of alibama about somewhat less than 700 main battle tanks and around 1800 infantry fighting vehicles which i recall would be credible given that tanks among infantry need friendly infantry support or rpg's and atgm's kill them all.......
that could be 12 'heavy' brigades bantered about. now how to keep numerous different vehicles with just refurbished systems running when they are deployed most ineffectively in terms of support tail is another issue.
finally, the little i know about mortars is the 120 mm is a good weapon and russia is using them, usa has them as well..... no mention of nato 120 mm?
What is the probability of Russia finally resorting to tactical nukes to stave off a Ukrainian offensive and bring the war to an end? Simplicius the Thinker (a Russian speaker?) seems to have a good grasp on how the internal public discussion in Russia is going, so what is being said about nukes in all kinds of Russian media? I mean, if the objection to nukes is that Russia sympathizers in Ukraine have to be protected, how many of them are left and who are they anyways? Russia is currently using up a great many of its best people to win conventional battles against Ukrainian Nazi scum a the front lines, effectively extending protection to groups of Russians who haven't made it out of Ukraine by now. At the current stage, these Russians are nothing but hostages that Ukraine has chosen to spare up until now or even to kill off by deploying them as cannon fodder. Hence the cannon fodder portion is not even being protected. In general they must be very old, or sick, or poor, or dumb, or stubborn, or sentimental for them to have stayed where they are. Stubborness can be good thing, especially its Russian variety, but there is always a threshold beyond which even the best characteristics can become detrimental. It seems to me that the biggest real objections to using tactical nukes are diplomatic, a.k.a. how would the hitherto sympathetic Global South react to Russia crossing the nuclear threshold, and purely military, a.k.a. how would NATO escalate in response? At this point, the Russian propaganda effort or lack thereof is coming into play. For all of Putin's qualities, he is not a good speaker, certainly not when it comes to addressing audiences outside Russia. He has difficulties making very precise points, owing to what feels like a typically Russian, somewhat meandering and indirect way of expressing himself. If Putin and other Russian figures could explain themselves to the world more succinctly and pointedly, then that might go a long way towards bringing home the message about what the Russians are dealing with in Ukraine, and why this war has to be brought to an end even by using tactical nukes.
Medvedev (bad cop role) is much more direct and agressive, very active on Twitter and all social media.Putin is not on social media (pr is busy enough).Nukes have zero interest in Ukraine even on near nato places countries as counter effects and wind circulation in Europe is from west to east, though to one point it will have catastrophic consequences. Same near Belarus this is just pure MAD (don't even dare to otherwise..).RU using nukes first would mean the end of the Global South solidarity forever with only one exception if NATO first strike Russia then everyone in the GS would understand it. But it will not happen as Sarmat and co or even good old ICBM are ready.Even neocons want to live not die.
Russia has no need to employ tactical nukes in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are already defeated - just a matter of time now. Using a tactical nuke at this stage would be far more harmful politically than any gains. However, I would not discount the possibility that NATO would use a nuke as a false flag against Russia, hoping to gain instant global support for a quick ceasefire to cool things down in hopes of forcing Russia into a compromise solution to end the war. Of course, having already destroyed all trust the Russians have in the 'West, this would not work as Russia is determined to demilitarise and de-nazify the Ukraine regime in Kiev and will not be deterred. The Russians will likely overrun the entirety of Ukraine, install a military/civilian junta to rule until a proper Russia-friendly government can be established - one that will continue the de-nazification effort to its end as was done in East Germany at the end of WWII (de-nazification of West Germany was never successful as is evidenced by the current regime).
I have to disagree. Why on earth would Russia have to change their approach at all. They're executing an approach of slowly grinding down the Ukrainian military like a cat plays with a mouse. Any kind of radioactive scenario, whether depleted uranium, 'tactical' nukes is completely out of the question due to negative press, environmental damage. They will not do it. Period.
Regarding the Russian politicians - either you haven't seen them speak or you're just not good at understanding them. I find that I relish their clear, concise, truthful, never changing approach to this hostile situation.
I can scarcely imagine a greater admission of impotence than the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise.
and poison Ukranian farmland forever? Western MSM talking point.
I think that Russians shall be forced to use nukes in the end.
Nonsense
"For all of Putin's qualities, he is not a good speaker, certainly not when it comes to addressing audiences outside Russia. He has difficulties making very precise points, owing to what feels like a typically Russian, somewhat meandering and indirect way of expressing himself. "
Anyone that has watched VVPs speeches would know you are talking bollocks.
The first sentence in the form of a question in your post makes me distrust everything you posit. Russia does not need to utilize tactical nukes… you are trying to scare/sway readers in bit more subliminal fashion than other psyop posters on this substack. Scare, then compliment. Seek info while pretending to try to understand Russian consensus on tact nukes. Use part of the substack domain owner for your handle is meant to stroke his ego. And I’m sure he’s not buying anything you have to say either. Your real last name wouldn’t be Chalupa or Kagan or Podesta? Asking for a concerned friend who is amazed at your brilliance as opposed to myself.
https://youtu.be/QE25i5k5eWs I had to go find this. In under 2 minutes. All discussion on all blogs regarding the Ukraine-1000km-front conflict summarized clearly, concisely and calmly. " he is not a good speaker"
I'm disagreeing yet again. Fact. And on top of that, as he said, it is unfolding in front of our eyes, on schedule together with China, India, Iran, Saudis, Turkey,many states in Africa. Enough said.
The Russians don't believe anything leaked by the U.S. government; only Americans do. So the leak is clearly aimed at the American public. Which means its just more propaganda and not worth doing a deep dive on.
The leaks are probably part of the process to prepare the US public for abandoning Ukraine, hence the info is probably real. They'll probably also throw Zelensky under the bus by painting the Ukraine military as not having provided accurate info to its allies, not having followed NATO sensible plans, etc...
My interpretation as well. Start massaging the western public for loss. But I do fear nuke false flag by the crazy Obama/Biden cabal.
“The leaks are probably part of the process to prepare the US public for abandoning Ukraine”.
None of the commenters I read have suggested this but to me it’s the explanation that makes the most sense.
The offensive will happen (*) and it’s going to be a catastrophe, impossible to sweep under the carpet. The optics are going to be even worse that the retreat from Afghanistan.
At least that didn’t happen as a result of a single military event, one day the US were there, the next they weren’t and the US trained Afghan army disappeared without a fight. But this…is going to be more dramatic and provide hundreds of images of very expensive, burnt western materiel. The public has to be put on notice.
* or, as some are saying, it’s a way to help the US wash their hands off the offensive and start wrapping up the whole circus.
"the Pentagram has confirmed the validity of the documents, as they panickedly trying to scrub the internet of the documents"
It's just too damn hard for the Pentagon to scrub the net. Boo hoo, I'm going to cry. And WTF is Musk shutting down accounts for? Watch this get used to push the RESIST Act.
All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?
many years ago i participated in the investigation of a "leak".
the last thing we did in the open was discuss the possible leak!!
at the time the idea was if we acknowledged the leak then the bad guys had a hint to follow through with the leak as true.
that was long before the gwot tho!
that was presumably long before Galaxy Brain Biden
Jumping Joey needs to take leaping jump.
Galaxy Brain Biden, LOL. He is such a POS as is all his so called cabinet.
in my misspent youth!
Have you ever noticed that every US actor/president were given GalaxyTM toward the end of their term. As far back as Dubya Bush. Forgetting, slurring, mixing up words - Obummer too. Maybe the same fate awaits Zee?
Musk? Starlink and Pentagon goose golden eggs, mayhaps.
Hadn't thought about the RESIST Act angle. Interesting point.
“All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?”.
I can’t think of two reasons:
1. This is precisely for the benefit of those who until now didn’t care to know and followed the propaganda dutifully (but now need to be brought onboard), and
2. Following from the above, the “leak” rigmarole (including the use of the MSM) both gives credibility to the info (because the propagandised will disbelieve) and saves the government the embarrassment of having to be the messenger.
OK, they need to be brought on board.
Fine. Talk PERJURY. Most people are familiar with how that applies. If one starts debating whether or not a given NYTimes article has some validity, one falls into the Gellman trap. One can't play on their table without getting owned.. That is a key part to bringing someone on board.
Mother Russia; GodSpeed❤️🇷🇺💙
All I can say as always Simplicius is Wow! What a wealth of information. 10-4 on the 'maskirovka' I tend to think. Keep them up at night guessing, and they'll still get it wrong (or right), however one looks at it. Great work bro.
Even if this "leak" is a psyop or disinformation ploy, it still contains mostly accurate information by Simplicius' and a few others' observations and analysis. However, there is a psyop angle that I'm not sure is being considered and that is that this leak was allowed to happen because someone high up in NATO or the Pentagram are ready to see this thing end, and they want analysts like our host to highlight and call out the futility of the Ukro-Nazis and what exists in NATO support for the big "Spring Offensive" (proper noun, you see!) - so that it ends up not happening and negotiations begin. I suppose this scenario could be covered in part by the "disgruntled" employee theory, but I'm thinking it's coming from much higher up.
But another thing is that even if the Pentagram and Joe Bidet are supposedly scrambling to erase these documents from the Internet, that too could be just another part of the psyop. Let's make it look like we really don't want this stuff out there!
We'll see.
This is exactly my first/gut feeling. If it's real it was leaked to force a change in NATO posturing, delay the offensive, or try and get a negotiated solution.
I heard of a strange meeting between Blinken and Lavrov.Supposed to be to talk about the real/fake journo/spy who was arrested by fsb last week (from WSJ).Macron went to Beijing with the EU clique in chief it ended up in a total disaster(even the most rabbit pro ukro msm are saying so, using the wording 'total failure', 'disaster').Lula Brazil PM is slowly falling on the right side after some hesitations and said ''nato has nothing to do at Russia borders'( “It is not necessary to have a war,” Lula said on Thursday, adding that the EU and the US were too quick to back Kiev instead of trying to deescalate the situation. “We think that the developed world, especially the EU and the US, had the option not to enter the war the way they did, so fast, without spending time trying to negotiate,” he said.)...I guess comrade XI gave him a call before?..Blinken today: we don't know what Ukraine really wants to do even about Crimea...and tonight talk of a false flag coming (it is always during the week end courtesy of SAS uk + SBU).
Interdepartmental Coordinating Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine
❗️ According to available data, confirmed by several independent sources, under the leadership of the office of the President of Ukraine, a large-scale provocation is being prepared aimed at discrediting the Russian Federation in the international arena
◽️ In order to divert the attention of the international community from the facts of numerous war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army and militants of nationalist formations published by the UN, the Kiev regime has planned a special information campaign.
◽️ For its implementation, over the past two weeks in the village of Akhtyrka, Sumy region, an alleged section of the "front line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the line of contact with Russian troops" has been prepared.
◽️ It is planned to deliver the bodies and remains of the dead Ukrainian servicemen from mortuaries to the equipped pseudo-positions, whose death occurred allegedlyas a result of fire damage by "Russian" artillery ammunition, equipped with " toxic substances."
◽️ The Kyiv regime provides for the treatment of this area and the remains of Ukrainian servicemen with a poisonous substance. This will allow invited experts from Western countries, currently on the territory of Ukraine, to document the alleged “use of “chemical weapons” by the Russian armed forces”.
◽️ In order to make the provocation more credible withUkraine’s special services were instructed to prepare and publish on social networks fake radio interceptions of alleged discussions by Russian military personnel of preparations for the use of “chemical weapons”, as well as fabricated orders to receive special ammunition for installations of the MLRS "Grad".
◽️ According to the plan of the Kiev regime, this provocation will allow launching another media campaign in the Western media to discredit the Russian Federation, including trying to initiate a meeting of the UN Security Council with the corresponding accusations of the Russian side.
This is hugely embarrassing for the Biden administration. Trump’s campaign is going to have a field day with this. It reveals incompetence at the highest levels. If it's a PSY-OP, it's self-defeating.
Yes, it's the most devastating of the war so far, definitely
Secret documents that appear to detail American national security secrets on Ukraine, the Middle East and China have surfaced online.
A new batch of classified documents that appear to detail American national security secrets from Ukraine to the Middle East to China surfaced on social media sites on Friday, alarming the Pentagon and adding turmoil to a situation that seemed to have caught the Biden administration off guard.The scale of the leak — analysts say more than 100 documents may have been obtained — along with the sensitivity of the documents themselves, could be hugely damaging, officials said. A senior intelligence officials called the leak “a nightmare for the Five Eyes,” in a reference to the United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, the so-called Five Eyes nations that broadly share intelligence.The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites on Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an assessment of Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, said the leak of the classified documents represents “a significant breach in security” that could hinder Ukrainian military planning. “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” he said.
It is so hard to believe that an administration run by the most corrupt, stupid, dementia-laden "President" ever to occupy the office would display such incompetence - said no one ever
Such nonsense! Give them (FBI, DOD, DOJ, WH) a few days and they'll present proof that all of these highly classified documents were stolen from an unsecure storage locker at Mar-a-Lago. Yep, you got that right ... it's all Trump's fault! </sarcasm>
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they blamed Trump.
It is indeed hard to believe for the NPR-listening, New York Times-reading, CNN-watching masses — and their numbers are legion. What’s happening now can only help wake them up — some of them, at least.
It doesn't matter, really.
Brainwashed people have been conditioned to disregard any negative news as "Just Russian disinfo" (and not just regarding Ukraine, but also Hunter Biden laptop, etc.).
Non-brainwashed people don't vote for him anyways.
Also, the facts on the ground don't matter, either. It doesn't matter how many KIA Ukraine has suffered, it could be 17k, it could be 70k, it could be 400k. People don't have any reference for these numbers. This is why the Brittish DOD can say Russia has 180k KIA or whatever, and people will go "Oh yeah, that totally makes sense. Russians very stupid, very bad, they send barely trained, barely equipped human wave attacks to be slaightered by Ukrainian machine guns, like in that novie about Stalingrad, where they only gave a rifle to every other soldier. Of course they lose many more soldiers than Ukraine."
Western governments no longer need to filter, censor and gatekeep the news from the public, because they trained the public to disregard any unorthodox information as conspiracy theory nonsense or propaganda.
Western societies have been demoralised and destabilized completely.
I recall back at the onset of winter when the NYTimes printed a fairly long article about how the Russians are ill prepared to fight a war in winter. They didn't even have warm jackets! Absolutely unreal how our media gets away with outright lies that don't even pass the smell test and too many Americans don't even think about it. I mean really, I don't have any special information about Russia's war preparations but I do know that Russia gets very very cold in winter and Russia has been fighting wars in the winter ever since Russia started fighting wars. Next they'll tell us that Canadians don't know how to dress for snow - and the idiots will believe them.
The people who will read the NYT, WaPo, or watch CNN, or Fox will call bullshit on the BLM riots, or orher things they can actually verify false, but will trust those same lying news outlets on a topic they have no expertise in.
All humans default to trust, because living in constant paranoia and suspicion is not healthy. It's the price we pay for being normal.
Humans default to trust because in our history, we had no choice but to do so. As hunter gatherers, you had to stick with the tribe because if you didn't, you were cast out and that meant near certain death. Back then, the tribe might have been wrong sometimes but not too often because if they were wrong, they might get the tribe killed by a predator or another tribe or a bacteria or drought, etc. Today, the "tribe" can be entirely wrong, mislead and deliberately lie and most of the followers don't end up dead. So we have a mismatch between what we evolved to do and what is required of us in the modern world. In the modern world, we shouldn't default to trusting the "tribe" because there are few consequences for them if they are wrong - and not going along with the "tribe" rarely results in death for the people who dissent.
If what you say it’s true then people have less imagination and compassion than suspected. 200 000 is more or less the population of my hometown. That’s what it means to me, everybody that occupies every single building in a decent sized city dead. You put every corpse on top of each other and you have a small hill of suffering.
Biden and his administration have NEVER made anything but bad decisions. Supporting violent tranies is the latest by the lesbian propaganda chief.
I keep asking myself, what happens if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? What then? Do the idiot Neocons (but I repeat myself) in Washington DC just give up? Or do they send all they have and send US troops? And will the American people be on board for that? I suspect half the country will support such action. And how does that end? Wouldn't you prefer a good game of chess?
They allow Russia to "win" then shit to a full blown insurgency to inflict as much damage on Russian targets as possible.
That seems like the correct prediction
Good luck with that. Insurgency is a young man's game (see, e.g. Vietnam, Yemen, Afghanistan).
The median age in Ukraine was over 40 - before the war.
On the recent Scott Horton podcast with Jeffrey Sachs, Scott hypothesizes that the plan was for Russia to quickly take Kiev and then they could initiate the Afghanistan strategy of insurgency to bleed Russia dry just the way that it worked against the Soviets in Afghanistan. It was only when Russia didn't take Kiev in the first weeks of the war that the strategy had to shift. I have to ask everyone looking at this war one simple question. If Biden and Putin sat down and played a game of chess, who would win? I suspect Putin knew full well that was a possible trap.
Poles are ready and are next canon fodders, ZE went to Warsaw two days ago and said 'there will soon be no more borders between our two nations'..not so sure all Poles will love that.
There is a big election soon in Poland maybe Duda (who is UK London bitch) is betting on:'' I'm the one who will increase Poland territory and population'', from the Baltic to the Black Sea( ok but what about so precious ''ukraine territorial integrity'' we are hearing on a daily basis for 14 months?..He is the next crazy after ZE with also lilliput Lithuania. France and even more Germany will NEVER accept that as their importance in the EU would decrease.Always count on Poles to fuck the all thing up and create discord in EU NATO..perfect for us.
The whole "no borders between our nations" statement got me thinking. If President Doo-Dah has delusions of bringing back the Polish empire by incorporating western Ukraine...he has been duped. Poland is already being Ukrainianized; there's what, over 1 million Ukrainians there already? When Biden made his visit, it was all Ukie flags and yellow & blue lights. If it gets to that point, and western Ukraine & Poland "merge", Poland will cease to exist, it will become New Ukraine. The Ukrainian Borg Collective will move right in, insert themselves in government, politics, the military, with lightning speed. The US will dump money into NGOs for them to get into "civil society" and media. Before Doo-Dah knows what's happened, Ukrainian teachers will be teaching Polish children how the brave Banderites saved them from the evil Soviets & Baba Yar was done by Red Army soldiers in stolen uniforms. The Ukies will do what they do best - infiltrate, subvert and subjugate with their special brand of emotional blackmail. They've got everyone in a psychological chokehold - including the US.
It's a multifront war. The Mideast is heating up, maybe Taiwan or Korea start problems. The 'Stans countries are vulnerable, and Pakistan.
I said on moon right after Surovikin was promoted that there's no reason to waste gas driving to the enemy when they keep coming to you. I also mentioned that he worked closely with the late General Soleimani, so expect to see the most being made with available resources. Prigozhin's comments regarding Artymovosk/Bakhmut seem to confirm this.
That having been said, I agree that it's logical to use more wave attacks to drain what's left of the AD and clobber militarily significant targets. I would think that more and more glide bombs and lancets will be used. It's also logical to assume Russia is building up its space assets, so the C4ISR situation should gradually improve for them. The problem in using the current NATO advantage in that department to attack where the allied forces are weakest is that Russia expects this. Just like Iran did to the MeK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, they're gonna get massacred.
April, Bloody April.
one other possibility is that it could be Ukraine with their backers in the West itself leaking this info, by painting a dire urgent need to get more money and weapons from Western sources or else all is lost.
Nobody is talking about F 16 anymore? What air cover will this 'mother of all counter offensives' have in fact? A few MIG if not shooted down before?
First of all, congratulations on all your analyses being so spot on. Really remarkable!
(I am not a paid subscriber but I used the tip jar. Thank you for all the information!)
Second, I suspect somebody leaked these documents on purpose to influence public opinion. NATO has fought this war through propaganda first of all, and maybe the intent of this is to get NATO politicians/citizens to panic and do something drastic. Because it really looks bad for the Ukraine.
I know nothing about nothing, but no matter you spin it, real leak or fake leak, that is a lot of dead people.
I keep saying this. Does nobody care about the human lives being lost? I guess not.
Doesn't seem so. Quite sad.
Tragic. I guess on this Good Friday, I will say a prayer as my heart breaks for the lives lost
Neocons already killed millions (directly and indirectly by sanctions) in the Middle East they don't care as long as their official forces are not the one dying.
They don't care about Ukraine and ukrainians, the least of their preoccupations. Poland + 3B were this week pushing for Ukraine in nato soon. Suddenly the US said no way (Hungary and Germany as well). There will never be a Ukraine in the EU as well, the millions who left will not come back(to work for peanuts if any work).The West is not going to pay pensions, salaries etc of Ukraine forever, their population will not tolerate that very long.
Many of those "lives lost" were lowlife NAZI worshipping scum and deserve death. They certainly do not deserve pity, sympathy or any denomination's prayers.
"The dead are not." They are out of the "game."
So is someone going to do a summary of all that for us? Just the main points.
How many troops does each side have? (and will have in say, one or two months)
How many deaths have there been?
Which force, if either, has clear military superiority?
And perhaps some informed information on the military requirements regarding 'major offensives' by which I mean it would appear that a major offensive in the first place requires large numbers simply to penetrate the opposing force. And that seems to be where all the discussion is and the numbers quoted. But does not the problem increase as 'success' grows, rather than decrease? For aren't the fronts now longer? And isn't the successful penetrating thrust now surrounded on three sides? And isn't the logistics chain longer and more vulnerable? And doesn't the territory gained drain men and material simply to hold it, garrison it?
And don't all such offensives really require a 'benevolent' target because of all the above? ( I just made up that term. I mean that if you head to join your own forces when you get there you are stronger. Or if you aim to conquer a population and stores, factories, that you can use, you are stronger when you get there. 'Benevolent' targets. Advantageous. But surely Kiev has mainly nowhere like that for any offensive to aim for, to arrive at. The nearest such would be something like Mariupol. But that then would be a hostile city and the likelihood of gaining it after what we've seen of the difficulty of gaining such as Bakhmut would seem very, very slender.
So: what sense in offensives in this scenario anyway?
In the beginning this was Kiev's war of conquest. They invaded Donbas. They are trying to maintain their invasion. If you see what I mean. A far different thing, I would think, than actually repelling invaders and gaining back your own as they ludicrously claim to be doing.
Any offensive is an attempt to perpetuate and increase the success of the preceding offensive, attack and occupation. Doesn't the situation and the history make it plain that offensive, that invasion, was largely unsuccessful when they were at their strongest?
Wouldn't they be well advised to go home?
The West needs a justification for the money + weapons given, at least a last try...''you know we did the maximum to help blablabla''...and no more budget after aug 23.
I would like to think so. But that rests on the assumption there is 'a west' and that it has some rationality. I don't think there is a West - only the USA. And I don't think it is rational. And it think the biggest part of its dreamworld lunacy is its belief that all it has to do to fix anything is print more money. Money literally means nothing to them.
And by 'them' I constantly talk as though I mean America which is 350 million Americans but of course I don't, I mean that tiny, tiny handful of insane hereditary plutocrats that run the place while the people sleep.
If the people wake up things might be different. Would be, certainly. But they show no signs of it.
If the plutocrats suddenly begin to see some value in money that would scare the daylights out of them and make a difference.
Until then there's no rationality for there's no counting the cost, there's never any cost benefit, there's never any value. And in their mad castle things look very different to them.
For instance they know the billions they 'spend' on the war are actually spent on their manufacturers of arms. It's just a movement of money from the poor to the rich in the American tradition.
And Europe and Ukraine etc. are not 'here', they are 'there' - in that far distance realm beyond the waters from whence can never come any harm to us.
Brings me to the third thing that could change things, nearly forgot it. If America itself got attacked. I know that cannot happen in America despite the 911 thing but it still can happen virtually. If their 700 bases start getting interdicted there'd be panic in Washington and a sea change in the whole nation, plutocrats down to homeless on the streets.
That's how I see it.
I fully agree about the US but in Europe ukraine fatigue is increasing fast.Inflation is not acceptable for more and more people and as Opec + will decrease production at least till the end of 2023, it means even more inflation and loss of buying power for many people.The EU can not print (QE) like crazies in the US, debts are very high, some banks collapsing or not far from..Next winter will be problematic for natgaz in quantity and in pricing(4 x more than before).Industries, shops are closing, unemployment rising even if the govts fake all stats.Food (fruits and vegetables are becoming luxurious items) for the popular (poorest class) and even the lower middle class.This week in my country, story of lawyer and doctor (GP) asking financial aid at municipal social services(never seen before).
In Europe we don't live or survive on multiple credit cards as in the US.It is very hard to get one, your incomes are triple checked by the banks.Which in summary means: politicos will feel much more pressure(strikes) in 2023 and we have elections in 2024 in many countries...
Authenticity is a moot point as it won't affect Russian strategy in the least. Fact is, Ukr is euchered by NATO & vice versa. I can't even begin to imagine fighting a war severely undermanned while arming, maintaining & repairing this dog's breakfast of recycled/reject 1960-90s eqmt. I'll bet Ukr is regretting selling their once massive Soviet ammo & weapon stock (Georgia 07-08 for 1 example) for quick cash the past 30 years. Until recently Ukr was top 10 worldwide in military exports, now they're begging & demanding. I still wouldn't put it past them to be desperate enough to attack Transnitria for the old ammo Soviet ammo dumps. Ukr shouldn't have started a fight with Ukr/Russian coal miners without expecting RF to put an end to it.
They left this week the area near Transnistria.
For those who would like to see the documents as they were downloaded from the original Telegram channel reveal, I have them on my Google Drive, the link to the folder containing them is:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1sNpzQf52bfVcXraZwJ0uDIrFgEhQEPCI?usp=share_link
Thanks
I bow down with admiration from your remarkable analysis; by far the most exhaustive I have come across. Unless one is endowed with psychic abilities, there is no telling the reality. I am not an expert in military matters (only served one year as mandatory duty) but I would not want to be in the AFU’s position; one cannot even fathom the amount of artillery firepower that Russia will throw at them once the counteroffensive starts!
Slava Rossiya and the multipolar shift from Switzerland