As many of you have likely heard, a major leak from U.S. DOD headquarters has just occurred the day before yesterday. Initially, I wasn’t going to cover it because there was a strong chance it could be fake, and it’s not worth the effort of a full deep-dive for a document of questionable origin/validity.
Thanks for the post but I put ZERO credance on this "leak". It was released to to the public for a reason and is likely a regurgitation of disinfo info Ukraine provided to NATO. Part of fog of war meant to distract and confuse. Meanwhile, Wagner has taken about 90% of Bahkmut now.
It's clearly a psy ops to mindscrew the Russians into being complacent about this coming offensive. The Nazis can't hide it so the US engaged in a massive disinformation campaign. They are the global experts in bullshitting.
Make no mistakes the Nazi offense will come before end of April. Too much maskarov spread even to normally pro Russian bloggers to proclaim that the Nazis are in no shape to launch any offensive.
Everything actually points to the coming offensive in evidences that really matters.
Take the total number of Nazis that are trained in US, Canada, UK, Europe and the numbers will reach 100k.
Look at Russian MOD daily reports and you'll see no tanks killed, no real AFV killed. Just mobile and static artillery and pickup trucks.
The real stuff is pulled back and gathered for the big push.
The west have always supplied more tanks, artillery, planes than they declared publicly.
So expect at least 600-800 tanks, more than 2k assorted AFVs, and minimum of 500 artillery/rocket.
It's the Nazis last shot as the west has run out of money and ammo to give them. Time is not on their side abd Satan is demanding souls.
I really hope Russia is prepared for this Do or Die
My guess is broad front attacks initially to mask true objective, and later to keep the Russians pinned to the whole front to prevent them from reinforcing the real objective once that's clear.
The nuclear plant is a secondary and much easier objective. Lots of PR and Russia is not going to risk irridiating their soldiers to die defending it. Expect the Nazis to throw 30k at it and Russia to withdraw. That's why the west flooded the Nazis with river fording equipment. After the plant is taken the Nazis will leave 20k to consolidate defences and sent 10k to the real objective. By itself it's a huge PR victory at very low cost. Russia will not risk blowing up the NPP just to defend it. Look for a Russian pull back there.
The real objective? Which is Mariupol and a shot at Crimea. that's 70k and most of the armour and artillery. Spitting distance for Nazi artillery even if they stopped there.
"the Pentagram has confirmed the validity of the documents, as they panickedly trying to scrub the internet of the documents"
It's just too damn hard for the Pentagon to scrub the net. Boo hoo, I'm going to cry. And WTF is Musk shutting down accounts for? Watch this get used to push the RESIST Act.
All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?
All I can say as always Simplicius is Wow! What a wealth of information. 10-4 on the 'maskirovka' I tend to think. Keep them up at night guessing, and they'll still get it wrong (or right), however one looks at it. Great work bro.
Even if this "leak" is a psyop or disinformation ploy, it still contains mostly accurate information by Simplicius' and a few others' observations and analysis. However, there is a psyop angle that I'm not sure is being considered and that is that this leak was allowed to happen because someone high up in NATO or the Pentagram are ready to see this thing end, and they want analysts like our host to highlight and call out the futility of the Ukro-Nazis and what exists in NATO support for the big "Spring Offensive" (proper noun, you see!) - so that it ends up not happening and negotiations begin. I suppose this scenario could be covered in part by the "disgruntled" employee theory, but I'm thinking it's coming from much higher up.
But another thing is that even if the Pentagram and Joe Bidet are supposedly scrambling to erase these documents from the Internet, that too could be just another part of the psyop. Let's make it look like we really don't want this stuff out there!
This is hugely embarrassing for the Biden administration. Trump’s campaign is going to have a field day with this. It reveals incompetence at the highest levels. If it's a PSY-OP, it's self-defeating.
I keep asking myself, what happens if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? What then? Do the idiot Neocons (but I repeat myself) in Washington DC just give up? Or do they send all they have and send US troops? And will the American people be on board for that? I suspect half the country will support such action. And how does that end? Wouldn't you prefer a good game of chess?
I said on moon right after Surovikin was promoted that there's no reason to waste gas driving to the enemy when they keep coming to you. I also mentioned that he worked closely with the late General Soleimani, so expect to see the most being made with available resources. Prigozhin's comments regarding Artymovosk/Bakhmut seem to confirm this.
That having been said, I agree that it's logical to use more wave attacks to drain what's left of the AD and clobber militarily significant targets. I would think that more and more glide bombs and lancets will be used. It's also logical to assume Russia is building up its space assets, so the C4ISR situation should gradually improve for them. The problem in using the current NATO advantage in that department to attack where the allied forces are weakest is that Russia expects this. Just like Iran did to the MeK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, they're gonna get massacred.
one other possibility is that it could be Ukraine with their backers in the West itself leaking this info, by painting a dire urgent need to get more money and weapons from Western sources or else all is lost.
First of all, congratulations on all your analyses being so spot on. Really remarkable!
(I am not a paid subscriber but I used the tip jar. Thank you for all the information!)
Second, I suspect somebody leaked these documents on purpose to influence public opinion. NATO has fought this war through propaganda first of all, and maybe the intent of this is to get NATO politicians/citizens to panic and do something drastic. Because it really looks bad for the Ukraine.
So is someone going to do a summary of all that for us? Just the main points.
How many troops does each side have? (and will have in say, one or two months)
How many deaths have there been?
Which force, if either, has clear military superiority?
And perhaps some informed information on the military requirements regarding 'major offensives' by which I mean it would appear that a major offensive in the first place requires large numbers simply to penetrate the opposing force. And that seems to be where all the discussion is and the numbers quoted. But does not the problem increase as 'success' grows, rather than decrease? For aren't the fronts now longer? And isn't the successful penetrating thrust now surrounded on three sides? And isn't the logistics chain longer and more vulnerable? And doesn't the territory gained drain men and material simply to hold it, garrison it?
And don't all such offensives really require a 'benevolent' target because of all the above? ( I just made up that term. I mean that if you head to join your own forces when you get there you are stronger. Or if you aim to conquer a population and stores, factories, that you can use, you are stronger when you get there. 'Benevolent' targets. Advantageous. But surely Kiev has mainly nowhere like that for any offensive to aim for, to arrive at. The nearest such would be something like Mariupol. But that then would be a hostile city and the likelihood of gaining it after what we've seen of the difficulty of gaining such as Bakhmut would seem very, very slender.
So: what sense in offensives in this scenario anyway?
In the beginning this was Kiev's war of conquest. They invaded Donbas. They are trying to maintain their invasion. If you see what I mean. A far different thing, I would think, than actually repelling invaders and gaining back your own as they ludicrously claim to be doing.
Any offensive is an attempt to perpetuate and increase the success of the preceding offensive, attack and occupation. Doesn't the situation and the history make it plain that offensive, that invasion, was largely unsuccessful when they were at their strongest?
Authenticity is a moot point as it won't affect Russian strategy in the least. Fact is, Ukr is euchered by NATO & vice versa. I can't even begin to imagine fighting a war severely undermanned while arming, maintaining & repairing this dog's breakfast of recycled/reject 1960-90s eqmt. I'll bet Ukr is regretting selling their once massive Soviet ammo & weapon stock (Georgia 07-08 for 1 example) for quick cash the past 30 years. Until recently Ukr was top 10 worldwide in military exports, now they're begging & demanding. I still wouldn't put it past them to be desperate enough to attack Transnitria for the old ammo Soviet ammo dumps. Ukr shouldn't have started a fight with Ukr/Russian coal miners without expecting RF to put an end to it.
For those who would like to see the documents as they were downloaded from the original Telegram channel reveal, I have them on my Google Drive, the link to the folder containing them is:
I bow down with admiration from your remarkable analysis; by far the most exhaustive I have come across. Unless one is endowed with psychic abilities, there is no telling the reality. I am not an expert in military matters (only served one year as mandatory duty) but I would not want to be in the AFU’s position; one cannot even fathom the amount of artillery firepower that Russia will throw at them once the counteroffensive starts!
Slava Rossiya and the multipolar shift from Switzerland
Thanks for the post but I put ZERO credance on this "leak". It was released to to the public for a reason and is likely a regurgitation of disinfo info Ukraine provided to NATO. Part of fog of war meant to distract and confuse. Meanwhile, Wagner has taken about 90% of Bahkmut now.
It's clearly a psy ops to mindscrew the Russians into being complacent about this coming offensive. The Nazis can't hide it so the US engaged in a massive disinformation campaign. They are the global experts in bullshitting.
Make no mistakes the Nazi offense will come before end of April. Too much maskarov spread even to normally pro Russian bloggers to proclaim that the Nazis are in no shape to launch any offensive.
Everything actually points to the coming offensive in evidences that really matters.
Take the total number of Nazis that are trained in US, Canada, UK, Europe and the numbers will reach 100k.
Look at Russian MOD daily reports and you'll see no tanks killed, no real AFV killed. Just mobile and static artillery and pickup trucks.
The real stuff is pulled back and gathered for the big push.
The west have always supplied more tanks, artillery, planes than they declared publicly.
So expect at least 600-800 tanks, more than 2k assorted AFVs, and minimum of 500 artillery/rocket.
It's the Nazis last shot as the west has run out of money and ammo to give them. Time is not on their side abd Satan is demanding souls.
I really hope Russia is prepared for this Do or Die
My guess is broad front attacks initially to mask true objective, and later to keep the Russians pinned to the whole front to prevent them from reinforcing the real objective once that's clear.
The nuclear plant is a secondary and much easier objective. Lots of PR and Russia is not going to risk irridiating their soldiers to die defending it. Expect the Nazis to throw 30k at it and Russia to withdraw. That's why the west flooded the Nazis with river fording equipment. After the plant is taken the Nazis will leave 20k to consolidate defences and sent 10k to the real objective. By itself it's a huge PR victory at very low cost. Russia will not risk blowing up the NPP just to defend it. Look for a Russian pull back there.
The real objective? Which is Mariupol and a shot at Crimea. that's 70k and most of the armour and artillery. Spitting distance for Nazi artillery even if they stopped there.
"the Pentagram has confirmed the validity of the documents, as they panickedly trying to scrub the internet of the documents"
It's just too damn hard for the Pentagon to scrub the net. Boo hoo, I'm going to cry. And WTF is Musk shutting down accounts for? Watch this get used to push the RESIST Act.
All this data is known - without the errors - by those who care to know. And let me remind, this is published in the NYTimes.... Why waste your time?
Mother Russia; GodSpeed❤️🇷🇺💙
All I can say as always Simplicius is Wow! What a wealth of information. 10-4 on the 'maskirovka' I tend to think. Keep them up at night guessing, and they'll still get it wrong (or right), however one looks at it. Great work bro.
Even if this "leak" is a psyop or disinformation ploy, it still contains mostly accurate information by Simplicius' and a few others' observations and analysis. However, there is a psyop angle that I'm not sure is being considered and that is that this leak was allowed to happen because someone high up in NATO or the Pentagram are ready to see this thing end, and they want analysts like our host to highlight and call out the futility of the Ukro-Nazis and what exists in NATO support for the big "Spring Offensive" (proper noun, you see!) - so that it ends up not happening and negotiations begin. I suppose this scenario could be covered in part by the "disgruntled" employee theory, but I'm thinking it's coming from much higher up.
But another thing is that even if the Pentagram and Joe Bidet are supposedly scrambling to erase these documents from the Internet, that too could be just another part of the psyop. Let's make it look like we really don't want this stuff out there!
We'll see.
This is hugely embarrassing for the Biden administration. Trump’s campaign is going to have a field day with this. It reveals incompetence at the highest levels. If it's a PSY-OP, it's self-defeating.
I keep asking myself, what happens if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? What then? Do the idiot Neocons (but I repeat myself) in Washington DC just give up? Or do they send all they have and send US troops? And will the American people be on board for that? I suspect half the country will support such action. And how does that end? Wouldn't you prefer a good game of chess?
I said on moon right after Surovikin was promoted that there's no reason to waste gas driving to the enemy when they keep coming to you. I also mentioned that he worked closely with the late General Soleimani, so expect to see the most being made with available resources. Prigozhin's comments regarding Artymovosk/Bakhmut seem to confirm this.
That having been said, I agree that it's logical to use more wave attacks to drain what's left of the AD and clobber militarily significant targets. I would think that more and more glide bombs and lancets will be used. It's also logical to assume Russia is building up its space assets, so the C4ISR situation should gradually improve for them. The problem in using the current NATO advantage in that department to attack where the allied forces are weakest is that Russia expects this. Just like Iran did to the MeK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, they're gonna get massacred.
April, Bloody April.
one other possibility is that it could be Ukraine with their backers in the West itself leaking this info, by painting a dire urgent need to get more money and weapons from Western sources or else all is lost.
First of all, congratulations on all your analyses being so spot on. Really remarkable!
(I am not a paid subscriber but I used the tip jar. Thank you for all the information!)
Second, I suspect somebody leaked these documents on purpose to influence public opinion. NATO has fought this war through propaganda first of all, and maybe the intent of this is to get NATO politicians/citizens to panic and do something drastic. Because it really looks bad for the Ukraine.
I know nothing about nothing, but no matter you spin it, real leak or fake leak, that is a lot of dead people.
So is someone going to do a summary of all that for us? Just the main points.
How many troops does each side have? (and will have in say, one or two months)
How many deaths have there been?
Which force, if either, has clear military superiority?
And perhaps some informed information on the military requirements regarding 'major offensives' by which I mean it would appear that a major offensive in the first place requires large numbers simply to penetrate the opposing force. And that seems to be where all the discussion is and the numbers quoted. But does not the problem increase as 'success' grows, rather than decrease? For aren't the fronts now longer? And isn't the successful penetrating thrust now surrounded on three sides? And isn't the logistics chain longer and more vulnerable? And doesn't the territory gained drain men and material simply to hold it, garrison it?
And don't all such offensives really require a 'benevolent' target because of all the above? ( I just made up that term. I mean that if you head to join your own forces when you get there you are stronger. Or if you aim to conquer a population and stores, factories, that you can use, you are stronger when you get there. 'Benevolent' targets. Advantageous. But surely Kiev has mainly nowhere like that for any offensive to aim for, to arrive at. The nearest such would be something like Mariupol. But that then would be a hostile city and the likelihood of gaining it after what we've seen of the difficulty of gaining such as Bakhmut would seem very, very slender.
So: what sense in offensives in this scenario anyway?
In the beginning this was Kiev's war of conquest. They invaded Donbas. They are trying to maintain their invasion. If you see what I mean. A far different thing, I would think, than actually repelling invaders and gaining back your own as they ludicrously claim to be doing.
Any offensive is an attempt to perpetuate and increase the success of the preceding offensive, attack and occupation. Doesn't the situation and the history make it plain that offensive, that invasion, was largely unsuccessful when they were at their strongest?
Wouldn't they be well advised to go home?
Authenticity is a moot point as it won't affect Russian strategy in the least. Fact is, Ukr is euchered by NATO & vice versa. I can't even begin to imagine fighting a war severely undermanned while arming, maintaining & repairing this dog's breakfast of recycled/reject 1960-90s eqmt. I'll bet Ukr is regretting selling their once massive Soviet ammo & weapon stock (Georgia 07-08 for 1 example) for quick cash the past 30 years. Until recently Ukr was top 10 worldwide in military exports, now they're begging & demanding. I still wouldn't put it past them to be desperate enough to attack Transnitria for the old ammo Soviet ammo dumps. Ukr shouldn't have started a fight with Ukr/Russian coal miners without expecting RF to put an end to it.
For those who would like to see the documents as they were downloaded from the original Telegram channel reveal, I have them on my Google Drive, the link to the folder containing them is:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1sNpzQf52bfVcXraZwJ0uDIrFgEhQEPCI?usp=share_link
I bow down with admiration from your remarkable analysis; by far the most exhaustive I have come across. Unless one is endowed with psychic abilities, there is no telling the reality. I am not an expert in military matters (only served one year as mandatory duty) but I would not want to be in the AFU’s position; one cannot even fathom the amount of artillery firepower that Russia will throw at them once the counteroffensive starts!
Slava Rossiya and the multipolar shift from Switzerland