What on earth makes you think that Zelenskii cares a fig for the lives of his soldiers? He and the other Ukrainian leadership see their subjects as so many sheep to be herded, sheared and fleeced.
What bit of "destroy the enemy army and everything else is easy" don't you get? You don't start big offensives in this modern age with a good chunk of the opposition still in place and extensively aided by Western intelligence assets. Zelensky is still feeding his troops directly into the Russian meat grinder. Once they are gone, and/or whoever is in charge of Ukraine understands that defence and strategic retreat is a better option, then you will see bigger offensive moves. Unless the Ukie military doesn't completely collapse/surrender in the interim.
It's attrition. It's long, slow and boring and it works. The last actual war to feature it was probably the Iran/Iraq War and Korea before that. The attrition ultimately defeated the western-aligned power in all recent cases.
Everyone wants a sichelschnitt. That comes at the end.
And expecting a fight in Ukraine to look anything like a desert war...no. Go back to WWII and see how it ran back then.
That was a war between the greatest superpower on Earth at the time, and a country with no surveillance assets and bled dry by the Iran/Iraq war and low oil prices, in a very open geography and not on their own territory (i.e. Kuwait). The Iraqi air force and air defences were next to useless against the overwhelming might of the US.
In this war, the Russians are faced with an enemy repeatedly rebuilt with Western weapons, money and training which is fighting in a very urban environment and with full access to all Western surveillance assets at a time of drones and guided munitions and fighting on their own territory. Now that the Western weapons and funds are lowering to a trickle and the best of the experienced and trained Ukrainian soldiers have been wiped out, Russia is much closer to its end game. This will be a very brutal Winter for Ukraine and I wouldn't be surprised at a massive missile/drone/guided bomb interdiction campaign to help finish them off.
As the others have pointed out; this conflict bears no resemblance to the Gulf War. Let us look at conflicts that do have enormous similiarities. The first such and probably most similar is the U.S. Civil War. You have a South that has little domestic munitions production and is dependent upon agricultural exports, locked in by a larger power that controls the seas, much like Ukraine against Russia in the Black Sea. You have instances of manuever, but only behind rivers, otherwise it is attempting to fix fortifications and fight from trenches. It is nigh impossible to achieve surprise because of reconnaissance (in the Civil War via spies and sympathizers to both causes and in this war owing to drones and satellites). The front is enormous compared to the sizes of the armies. Another similar conflict is the World War 1, with the Ukrainians playing the role of Germany.
In both cases there was no question of "initiative" for either Germany or the South. Both took initiative whenever the mood or necessity dictated. The question was simply one of resources. Eventually, the resources, men, moral, and material, ran out. The same will happen to Ukraine, and soon. There army is at the point of collapse. What happens in Kiev is mostly irrelevant. Like Simplicius observes, whatever new government is installed will face the same circumstances as the current government: no domestic munitions production; complete dependence upon foreign supplies (which are less per annum than those of Russia); a dwindling pool of manpower; the destruction of all their seasoned, assault-capable infantry unites; and a dwindling stock of artillery tubes, drones, and missiles. There is no political or military solution to this problem. It is checkmate in 5 moves, and there is no escape.
1. It's a fallacy to characterize waiting for the enemy to die on your defences as a lack of initiative. Russia's initiative was to create a formidable defence, which it did to excellent effect. It also took the initiative to ramp up, in a big way, its defence industry while swelling the size of its military by hundreds of thousands of soldiers. At the tactical level, even Ukrainian sources are now talking about Russia having the initiative in several areas along the front. While international defence analysts have concluded that Russia now has the most powerful military forces in the world.
If I've learned one thing in this conflict, it's that Russia doesn't wage war according to the 24 hour news cycle. Russia wages war with patience and resolve. Both will be necessary to complete the objectives that were set at the beginning of the SMO.
2. Zelenskyy's shelf life was perhaps a little longer than Liz Truss lasted against a head of lettuce, but it will take a Hail Mary miracle to save him now.
3. As soon as someone claims he knows a simple fact, I'm usually motivated to assume the opposite. It's nothing personal, but. That nations at war are positioning themselves for negotiations is a truism in every case, this conflict is no exception. I'm not privy to Russia's intentions, but I see no apparent intention on their part to accept a frozen conflict, nor any compelling reason why they should. Russia is looking very solid.
Unfortunately, a little too fast and loose for this report to offer the reader credibility; wait and see is much better than a mish-mash of random speculation.
Uff da! What an idiotic statement, Mr. Brown. The truth is, I'm married to a true-blue Russian. This one was Simplicius' weakest report, so I softly said something. I came to that conclusion when I read it out loud to my bride while she prepared dinner last night. She thought the same. The difference is that she can understand any Russian spoken and written, so together, we understand the info being offered more clearly. Up to now, I've only given positive feedback. Still, it's a good thing you weren't here when you gave your silly Nazi-lover line; you'd have received a head full (rather than a mouthful) of delicious stroganoff mixed with those special mushrooms picked in the forest of Kazakhstan—a place like eastern Ukraine, where a lot of Russians were 'left behind' after the Soviet Union folded.
Also you nazi, you never named specifics, in regards to what was wrong with this article, you are a troll, you are a nazi, you are a nut case. Get lost.
Just some unsolicited advice. You should make the effort to learn Russian, so you can understand the spoken parts with your wife. There's lots of reasons - but fundamentally it's very respectful towards a spouse whose native tongue is foreign to your own.
My buddy, after building some stuff on site, married a Russian gal from Siberia and I am married to a wonderful woman born in Poland. Both speak their native languages, but my wife and especially her parents had to learn German and Russian (to survive).
On one thing this Polish woman and Russian woman agree without reservation - Ukraine was being set up for annihilation by the U.S. and Nato. Both think if 1/2 the effort in time and money was spent on mutual understanding, compromise and Peace, the Ukraine might have a future. But with bloodthirsty U.S. warmongers and the European Colonies still in charge, Ukraine is done, done.
Well, its always hard to say when a state or its army folds. Slowly, slowly, then all of a sudden. Nobody can really make more than informed guesses. And that's what simplicius makes, really good informed guesses I would add.
I am astonished Ukraine made it that far to be honest, well a smaller much more weaker shadow of a former Ukraine at least. Didn't Borrell the EU "diplomat" say, if it wasn't for the Western nations support, Ukraine would have been done for in a couple of weeks?
Rats fleeing a sinking ship. Ironic that Burns knew what would happen when he was US Ambassador to Russia from 2005-2008. His cable to his boss Condi Rice: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin's sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."
All the Ukro-Nazi hoipoloi getting rounded up and hauled into court for corruption is great and I wish it would happen in the USA to the right scumbags! Currently it's the wrong scumbag getting tried in several courts.
I find it hilarious that anyone can print that the US will freeze the conflict until better times ahead; the Russians have a say and it's NO FREEZE - when Putin and Medvedev (great colourful language) say as much. Moving deck chairs -yawn.
Citizenship is a reward for service for aliens who enlist. There (were) lots of PTI people - people who were redirected from almost certain conviction on mostly drug offenses to a stint in the Army.
One reason why the US Army has a lot of issues with petty theft and such.
Let’s install him in charge of Ukraine DoD. Give him an AK47 and let him leaf his troops to glory (in the afterlife, of course. As he wouldn’t last a week at the front.)
Someone supplied all those Javelins (and other stuff) to Hamas from Ukraine and there's no way people at the Ukrainian MOD are not involved. I'm pretty sure there's a lot of pressure behind closed door from the US who are now really pissed their taxpayer dollars end up arming Hamas too.
Masterful analysis. But your last point is the nut. This all relies on Russia running to the negotiation table. And why should they? Why stop when you are winning? Why would you let Ukraine get its breath and re-arm? And of course, this comes to the Evil Empire's hubris. They just cannot imagine anyone not taking "their" terms.
And that is where it gets interesting. So, they arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, and they call Russia. And Russia is happy to sit down. And to present the demands. Total Ukrainian disarmament. Kharkiv and Odessa. All sanctions lifted. Reparations for theft of Russian assets. Oh, and we are going to need those Nazi's for the War Criminal trials.
None of which is palatable. So back to the grind. At which point, they will just sweep Ukraine under the rug and forget it. Western citizens are so fucking stupid they will accept whatever the media prints. And Ukraine hangs slowly slowly in the wind like a hanged man.
I think at this point if Putin offered terms, it would cause a political earthquake in Russia. People sense that this is all about the future survival of the nation - terms can not be offered that will avoid creating uncertainty about that future. Why would Russia want to create such uncertainty among its people?
NATO would be pleased if Russia offered terms, no matter how harsh, as that would imply that Russia has doubts about its own ability to win, and this would be something NATO could use to save face. Russia refusing terms except unconditional surrender would completely humiliate NATO, possibly even causing a breakup of the alliance.
I completely agree. Only unconditional surrender will be acceptable, this reign of terror must end, and ending it in Ukraine is the first step to its final ending.
For Russia, and ultimately for the rest of the sane world, Ukraine must be shrunken and de-militarized. Negotiating a deal with Ukraine, will be the same conditions given Germany at Versailles. The seeds for the next World War.
The terms that brought in WW2 and Hitler's rise to power were the Reparations Germany had to pay, and the penalties if it could not. I doubt Putin would go that route, but the terms will be tough no question.
I don't think it will be "unconditional surrender" but it might as well be given the terms will amount to a foreign policy disaster for the USA/NATO and will fulfill completely Russian war aims. I would not expect to see Ukraine existing in anything like its current form after the shooting stops.
Indeed if I were Vladimir Putin I would want the USA to save as much face as possible while quitting the war. As things stand today the US can claim to have foiled Putin's secret plan to revive the USSR.
Au Contraire. There will be an equal economic cost for Ukraine either way. Russia doesn't need to occupy all of the Ukraine, just east of the Dnieper and the South. Nearly all "Ukrainians" speak Russian, had a working relationship with Russia, pre-Nazi control and now have had a taste of the price of supporting the Thieves of Kiev. Ukraine can become like Canada is to the U.S. A token military, cheap resources and a reliable mouthpiece when the U.S. organ grinder beckons. And unlike Russia, when the U.S. "blew-up" Keystone, Canada said, "thank you."
I've lived in Russia twenty years. The war is not popular. People forget that Russians themselves view it as a civil war. Lots of people have been affected personally, either because they have friends or family in Ukraine, or their friends and family are from Ukraine. Also, people trust Putin's judgment - not in a sycophantic way due to propaganda, but because he's demonstrated good judgment over the decades of his rule.
Long and short, if Putin agrees to a peace agreement of any sort, Russian people are likely to be both happy about it and to think it's a good idea.
Perhaps the war isn't popular, but it is viewed as necessary, even vital.
Although Putin has had a European leaning in the past, the ground has changed and so has Putin. Putin doesn't hold all the cards but the rest of the cards are face up on the table.
Unless you live in Moscow or St Petersburg, I do not understand your comment. If you do live there, then I fully understand why you say what you say. My wife is Russian and we have friends from Crimea to Krasnoyarsk. We watch Russian TV nightly on multiple channels. We observe the political class in Russia - the Duma, state security apparatus, government ministers. We connect daily with social media contacts in Russia as well as popular commentators in Russia. In all of that, I sense that the war is not something "popular" in Russia, but "necessary". Almost the entire political class is not only supportive of the war but realises, through experience, the implications of making unwise concessions to the West in any form.
So in the end, I really don't believe you that the Russian people would be happy about any deal short of unconditional surrender, made by Putin. He might be extremely popular, and certainly he is, but his power comes from the fact that he listens to people around him and in the general population and that he truly has the benefit of Russia in his heart, not his own interests. People sense that and that is why he is popular.
I don't think Putin will be fooled again. I remember, back in Dec 22, he said:
"Merkel’s comments vindicate Ukraine operation
Putin said he was surprised and disappointed by former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s confession that the purpose of the Minsk peace agreements was to “buy time” for Ukraine. However, he added that it justified Moscow's military operation against Kiev.
“Their point was only to load up Ukraine with weapons and prepare it for hostilities. We see that. Honestly, we may have realized that too late, and maybe should have started all this sooner,” Putin said.
While he knew that Ukraine did not intend to implement the deal, “I thought other participants in that process were honest. Turns out they too were deceiving us,” said the Russian president.
How to negotiate with “trust at zero”
The deception about Minsk now raises a “question of trust,” said Putin, noting that it is currently “almost at zero.” The real question now is whether negotiations about anything with anyone are even possible, and what would guarantee any eventual deal, he added. “In the end, there will have to be talks. We are ready for them, I have said that many times. But it does make us think, who we’re dealing with.”
Why would Russia need guarantees from anyone if Russian terms to a probable Ukraine interim military cabal sometime next year are surrender with no conditions and they agree.
If Russia does less, leaves any inch of Ukraine soil other than possibly the crazed Galicia region in Western/Polish hands, a Western nuclear capable base with be set up in a nanosecond.
Sure, the West can set up a Zelensky govt in exile somewhere, but so what.
I've been thinking about this and I think everyone is more or less wrong about what the world looks like after this.
Consider a lengthy Russian border along the Baltics, Poland and down to the Black Sea. Direct confrontation with NATO. There were already issues in Belarus this year. Since the neocons provoked Russia, they're going to have to negotiate for peace, not get it by default.
When you say direct confrontation with NATO are you considering a Ukraine 2.0 under Russian control/management would be part of Russia? Because I don't see that as Russia's goal.
They want a sane, non-NATO, neutral nation next door, not to expand what is already the largest country in the world. If they have to manage it for the next 20 years so be it, it may take that long to get it back up and running anyway given all the shelling, destruction, and death.
True we are back to a Cold War, but the strength of the respective players is very different this time. How long will it last, probably long enough for the EU to fall as it relates to the Continent. And for the US to either fall or be torn apart and hopefully rebuilt via civil unrest and possible war.
I wonder if the US does fall will Russia and China come in as a Peace Keeping Force? At this point anything is possible. We live in interesting times. I frankly am not too happy about that.
I'm afraid there's a high probability Putin might agree to some sort of truce. Putin's a peace-nik at core and he would also not like the optics of not taking an offer of peace, how that would look to the rest of the world, esp the global south. He's been careful so far not to actually "say" Russia will take these 4 provinces. His peacenik credentials are also to be seen how he's directed the war to be as gentle as possible on Ukraine. I just have a bad feeling that Putin will accept terms instead of crushing the enemy.
I agree, and yes I believe they would only negotiate with the US as things stand now. But if the Ukraine govt is overthrown, and military they know comes in, they may negotiate with them.
The reason I say military they know is that most of Ukraine's senior military and Russia's all went to the same military schools, they have known each other for years and there are probably discussions happening even today.
As of now Russia may insist that the US negotiate, but things may change.
Any interim UKR govt needs to be legitimized and accepted by the collective West, in order for RU to stop.
Following public acceptance from Merkel & Hollande (not to mention UKR signatories) that they signed Minsk2 in bad faith (by the way, isn't it a reason enough for the SMO) RU will settle for nothing else than feeling "secure", the state and the RU ethnos abroad (by the way acceptance of all minorities is on paper propagated by collective West).
No "interim" UKR govt can provide with such an assurance; UKR is unfortunately the ram manipulated by foreign actors to hit RU.
And of course as prerequisite to have every year in May Ursula in person -she is fluent in french- to announce : Roussie douze points. This is not negotiable :) :)
Why should Russia need or want approvals of a Ukraine interim govt from a bunch of warmongering, sanctioning nitwits? Who are so stupid and craven as to let their "Partner" destroy their energy security?
If there is a Ukraine military takeover that wants to negotiate with Russia, of course Russia will speak with them. And if I were Russia I would be delighted if the West failed to recognize the Ukraine govt.
For that would mean that the entire BlackRock/Clinton Foundation/Soros/IMF team, with their plan to "help" rebuild Ukraine can never set foot into Ukraine. Hah, that is a win-win.
Let them fund a Zelensky govt in exile with offices in Miami and Paris till Hell freezes over.
Yes, and that framework does not have Russia taking over 4 provinces. So that's another 'out' for the legal-minded peacenik Putin to accept a weak victory.
There was a time when terms could've been made, but that was before the invasion. Russia has since crossed that Rubicon, and I expect them to stay the course for total victory over NATO.
This Western citizen and some others don't fit your description although at one time I did. I don't think Russia will accept anything short of unconditional surrender. Zaluzhny better deliver.
Putin should remind Biden that he sent a way for all this carnage to be avoided, but Biden turned him down. Now if Biden wants to negotiate a ceasefire, Putin should tell him that the same terms apply, but Biden will have to agree that the Donbas voted fairly to join Russia and that he has to admit that Crimea too fairly voted to rejoin Russia and Biden has to admit that too. Oh yeah…and NATO gives up the countries it admitted and remove the weapons there too. Would love to see America suffer some humility.
Oh yeah and the Nazis involved in the Maidan square massacre have to be identified and arrested and held for trial.
Yet why bother with Biden, if I were Putin I would wait to see what the next administration looks like, and decide then whether speaking to them is warranted. Time is on Russia's side, in Ukraine, in the Middle East, in the world.
But the clock is running out on the US, anyone can see it. The debt is unsustainable, the ability to defend seems limited, the open borders are burying State economies, unemployment is high, the schools are turning out people unable to read or add, and the corruption of the ruling junta is breathtaking.
The nation is being deliberately destroyed from within as the President of El Salvador said. Is it best to stand clear during such times, probably.
Good points. Putin knows that he isn’t actually dealing with Biden, but the neocons who have been in every administration going back to Reagan. Blinken, Nuland and Sullivan are the ones who are telling Biden what he should do. Except that Biden has been for every war going back to Yugoslavia. Putin has said that America is incapable of agreement and he is right. Has America ever kept an agreement it’s signed?
America has spent over $8 trillion on wars starting with Afghanistan and just imagine how that money could have helped us here at home. Kunstler said that Biden is destroying the country and I agree with him. Look at how bad things have gotten in just 3 years.
While I don't recommend it as a read, as it is very turgid and repetitious, one of Mearsheimer's books does a good job of explaining the mental map of liberal hegemony. These people have been schooled in this and believe it intrinsically. Fukuyama is some kind of prophet to them.
As in any form of real change, a moment when you question your own beliefs is required. For addicts, this moment is referred to as "rock bottom". It's just as applicable here. I'm not sure what rock bottom looks like to the neocons. You can't know what it is for someone else. But the lesson needs to be administered and I don't think Ukraine in and of itself will be sufficient.
I don't think it can be allowed to end until the fat lady sings. By which I mean, Victoria Nuland Kagan testifies fully and truthfully about what the western powers ownership class required be done by her and her cohort in Eastern Europe/Russia's near abroad- and WHY. This singing to be performed at her trial for crimes against humanity.
I doubt that ever happens. The leadership of great powers doesn't get hauled in front of a war crimes trial unless the nation in question is utterly defeated. You can think of the nuclear deterrent as protection against Ms. Nuland getting her just desserts.
If one wanted to make her feel the pain, brushing up on one's writing skills would be the proper course. She'll have to be savaged in history.
Perhaps I would agree, if one took into account that some of those victories were of the Pyrrhic sort. Meaning it would have been better for the war to have never happened.
Russia has never shown any desire to take Odessa. Taking the city has definite negative consequences. It will turn whatever remains of Ukraine into a rump stain with low economic prospects, and push it into dependency on Poland. Putin has never demanded the impossible; his political demands have always been within the real of the other party to delivery. Reparations from Ukraine for Russian losses are clearly untenable, and so clearly will not be made - and Putin understands the history of the interwar period (1920s - 1930s) and the consequence of Versaille on Germany.
I think exactly what is palatable to the Kremlin might surprise you, and everyone else. I have no idea what it is; but I do know that Russia tried hard for years to find an alternative to war. There's no reason to think that because they're in a war they felt unavoidable now, that they've changed their fundamental approach to the world.
This is super accurate. Galicia more probably should have been included in Poland. It's been Polish-dominated for a very long time. The rest of Ukraine is not that much different than Russia proper. We can blame Stalin for a lot of this border mismatch. He had his reasons for creating buffer zones in the west after the war..
The loudest voices suggesting it publicly are at the top of Zelensky's own party in Rada (Ukrainian parliament). I'd say the discord and distrust is already their and growing, not being sown.
..How about Klitschko president instead of Zaluzhny? What has Zaluzhny achieved a part desiring to retreat from here or from there? He's not going to end the conflict, he did not hint at that in his 'the economist' article
The Ukranian armed forces were reshaped and trained by the British since 2016. There are multiple accounts of this. Ukraine was to be the perfect platform to attack Russia proper. A good chunck of the British military, intelligence, finamce and industrial complex worked hard on Ukraine for years. What a fantastic loot. After the Maidan Ukraine became an anglosionist colony. At the beginning it was a cheap grab, costing only 5 billion dollars to take over the biggest country in Europe. Investors flocked from all sides: hard industry, weapons, training, cheap fertile land, fisheries, child and organ trafficking, prostitution, biowarfare, money laundering, drugs, cheap workforce... you name it. Now the bill rose up to 300 billion and they are reaching the profit investment margins. That is to say that the Ukranian gold mine worthed 295 billion in profits plus the corresponding x10 times derivatives. If the war stops now they can still very much squeeze white the Ukranian cow by means of reconstruction IMF programs and so on. A bad peace now could mean a strategic defeat for Russia.
There is no way Russia wants or will allow BlackRock, the Clinton Foundation, Soros, the IMF and god knows what other horrors to set up shop next store.
US is like an emperor without clothes if they think they can just offer a ceasefire and Russia will suck it up: they won't, given all the duplicity Putin encountered from NATO since he came to power and especially the Minsk II betrayal.
The US government thinks they can obtain a ceasefire from Russia to freeze the conflict (until they decide to start it again). In the past, Putin arranged ceasefires at the very moment when the Ukrainians were most desperate, such as after the Battle of Debeltsavo. However, by doing so, Putin bought time for Russia to prepare for the inevitable war with NATO, in particular by modernizing its military air defenses and attack missiles. Russia has spent the past 18 months upgrading to a full war footing and is now flush with well trained soldiers and equipment. I think that the Biden Administration will find that Russia is not interested in negotiations. They will allow the rotation of leadership in Ukraine, and then take advantage of it to complete the destruction of the Ukrainian military and obtain surrender on terms favorable to Russia.
I think RF would be very happy to freeze the conflict at the current lines... They shrugged off the once-dreaded sanctions, and proved they're more than capable of standing up to NATO on the battlefield. That can easily be sold as a win for both domestic audience in Russia, and to Russia's actual partners (eg China & "global south"). The stark contrast vs Israel is icing on the cake in that regard.
Only problem is NATO side can't be trusted to actually voluntarily see through a compromise. This is unfixable.
Putin and RF MoD have been quite steady in limiting the intensity of the action however. So not expecting any big move.
This is a war, not a public relations battle. "Selling something" is not Putin's objective. He has made his objectives plain right from the start. I doubt very much that he will settle for less when he holds the whip hand, has already deemed the West agreement incapable, and knows perfectly well a freeze works only to the West's benefit and against Russian strategic interests at an existential level.
On the contrary, Russian leadership has in the recent past gone to tremendous lengths to explain to the world (like, really the whole world, not specifically the west) every step of the way. And very meaningful sacrifices were made in the name of restraint, in spite of domestic criticism including the military, to show that RF is not like the Americans/clients in how they conduct war. And while the gestures were spit on by UA who proceeded to engage in terrorism and so on, the contrast vs Israel and US double standards is unignorable. This means thecampaign by RF to mend fences with the Islamic world (Akhmat Sila etc) may actually bear very significant fruit. Billions of people. No small feat considering mixed feelings in the post Soviet world.
Anyway, as we do agree, US/NATO lack of trustworthiness in the current generation makes actually freezing the conflict a moot point.
Apples and oranges, I think. The "hearts and minds" battlespace is considerably larger, from Russia's POV, than the SMO. However, the SMO is an existential battle for them, and they understand it will not be won in the approval, or lack of it, from the Global South, say. It will be won with the brute steel power of Russian industry coupled with the blood and fire on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Russia's open determination to follow law, procedure, treaty, and due process is more of a testimony to the future, and the other nations of the world. They know perfectly well that NATO is completely deaf to it.
Full capitulation is unlikely. If the Russians start actually fighting to the polish border it will guarantee, without a doubt, direct engagement with nato and ww3. There is no practical way to reach the border without fighting forces on both sides of it.
It would also galvanise popular support in the west. The Russians will take all this into account
Russia will probably throw pieces of western Ukraine to the Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians to chew on and push the hard-line Bandera lovers there. The massive clear victory is not optically optimal for Russia precisely because it will unite the currently divided West against Russia.
My view is that a number of additional oblasts are now at play.
These would include Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Odessa, Chernishev, Cherkasy, Nicolaev, Kirovohrad, Vinnitsa, Poltava. Further West plus Kiev, likely pointless.
Strategically militarily: Odessa is the most important: cut rump Ukraine off from the Black Sea and terminate NATO/US ambitions there for at least a generation. Odessa would also link up Transnistria with Russian territory.
Geopolitically, some form of land connection to Hungary and Serbia would be very beneficial but that would pretty much require going to the Polish border and pacifying OUN style guerrillas for a long time.
Possible, but another possibility is a Constitutional Amendment banning say, Bandera/OUN type political parties.
And while I would fully agree that such an amendment would never be voluntarily agreed to by the present Ukraine, it is eminently possible as part of a set of dictated terms following an unconditional surrender. Look at the political terms Japan had to agree to in 1945.
As such, there are options besides outright conquest (and occupation).
If the war ends with Western Ukraine being a NATO/EU state that can be used to build up an ant-Russian force and missile base, then Russia will have wasted all their blood and money on this war. The only outcome that Russia will accept is that the Ukrainian rump state is constitutionally neutral, demilitarized, and not a member of NATO.
So much for the war lasting another two years! LOL It's over, baby!
Whoever runs Ukraine will be forced by the US to "freeze" the conflict - except Russia ain't accepting no "freezes", homey! It's "surrender or bust" - and despite what Alexander Mercouris might think, "bust" is just fine with Putin and his team if they can't get surrender. And surrender is the same as bust for Ukraine, except maybe a few fewer people die on both sides.
Beginning to look like Russia will be on the Polish border by New Years Eve, if Ukraine surrenders. If not, well, Russia will get there soon enough.
I feel like it was over when sanctions didnt work and we found out Russia makes weapons as fast as China makes chop sticks. They have 120 million more people. Better weapons 10x more. So really only hope was food riots in Moscow.
War will last years maybe 10-20-30 years...ukraine will end up like Syria a failed state, empty of his inhabitants which will provide the EU with cheap labor to destroy the living standards of their own people about whom they could care less.That is the West main goal as Eurasia is divided forever, no more brics soon? (see Pepe article), western politicos are trapped they will prefer this no win no lose situation than to lose face like never before in 2000 years, otherwise the all rules bases disorder collapses. I agree with Mark Sleboda on his pessimistic take since 2014.Russian gas, no need anymore as gaza new soon seized natgaz + oil will replace it.
Both 404 and gaza are linked since day one. Connecting the dots.
Fake arab states leaders or muslims one don't even care about Palestine (see the pathetic meeting in SArabia, lot of words zero action).
Argentina will leave brics before even entering it, UAE and Saudis will follow, Iran it will take more time but if regime change one day also. Even Egypt can leave by pressure, India is not reliable they support Israhell and don't count on XI too much...
It is time for Russia to finaly realize that it is time to declare war (not smo) on Ukraine and finish the job ''à la IDF'', to give the West not a single hope that there will be anything but full surrender, no stalemate, ceasefire, Minsk 3 etc..but as Putin is ..Putin this will not happen as elections are approaching fast (march 17th?). Russia must not wait for his ennemy to collapse as it may take years in defense position, if RU wants to really wins(I mean a real big win which will be impossible even for the Western prostitutes jornos to deny it) and scare NATO or any other entity for at least another 100 years. What should have been done in feb 2022, today the war would be over and a total victory. And many Russian soldiers died for almost nothing even Donbass is far to be liberated, daily danger comes out of Odessa with attacks on Crimea etc....
Yep. Avdeevka is poised to fold like a deck of cards. Commanders saw it already and bugged out apparently not even telling the troops who only found out the next morning.
When I read that those brassy rats had snuck off the sinking ship, my first thought was: Did they leave their "blocking forces" inside the soon to be closed cauldron? And how easy are those enforcers to tell from the other bag holders?
I was thinking more in line with the Ukrainian grunts being able to say "screw THIS noise!" And save themselves. If the officers are gone and the Nazi commissars, WHY DIE today?
Ahh. I was thinking "enforcers" as in the mercs or Nazis that shoot the new recruits who want to surrender. Maybe they bugged out with the command though.
We mean the same bunch of asshats. The "shoot 'em in the back if they try to surrender, but WE don't do assaults personally" brigade. Who deserve a very special place in Hell, but since this is all the hell there ever will be, right here & right now, we need to make it special for them RFN.
Yeah, I'm sure he's paying attention to you. And even if he was doncha think the Russians have a say?
There will be no ceasefire. Only total surrender will suffice.
What on earth makes you think that Zelenskii cares a fig for the lives of his soldiers? He and the other Ukrainian leadership see their subjects as so many sheep to be herded, sheared and fleeced.
What bit of "destroy the enemy army and everything else is easy" don't you get? You don't start big offensives in this modern age with a good chunk of the opposition still in place and extensively aided by Western intelligence assets. Zelensky is still feeding his troops directly into the Russian meat grinder. Once they are gone, and/or whoever is in charge of Ukraine understands that defence and strategic retreat is a better option, then you will see bigger offensive moves. Unless the Ukie military doesn't completely collapse/surrender in the interim.
It's attrition. It's long, slow and boring and it works. The last actual war to feature it was probably the Iran/Iraq War and Korea before that. The attrition ultimately defeated the western-aligned power in all recent cases.
Everyone wants a sichelschnitt. That comes at the end.
And expecting a fight in Ukraine to look anything like a desert war...no. Go back to WWII and see how it ran back then.
That was a war between the greatest superpower on Earth at the time, and a country with no surveillance assets and bled dry by the Iran/Iraq war and low oil prices, in a very open geography and not on their own territory (i.e. Kuwait). The Iraqi air force and air defences were next to useless against the overwhelming might of the US.
In this war, the Russians are faced with an enemy repeatedly rebuilt with Western weapons, money and training which is fighting in a very urban environment and with full access to all Western surveillance assets at a time of drones and guided munitions and fighting on their own territory. Now that the Western weapons and funds are lowering to a trickle and the best of the experienced and trained Ukrainian soldiers have been wiped out, Russia is much closer to its end game. This will be a very brutal Winter for Ukraine and I wouldn't be surprised at a massive missile/drone/guided bomb interdiction campaign to help finish them off.
As the others have pointed out; this conflict bears no resemblance to the Gulf War. Let us look at conflicts that do have enormous similiarities. The first such and probably most similar is the U.S. Civil War. You have a South that has little domestic munitions production and is dependent upon agricultural exports, locked in by a larger power that controls the seas, much like Ukraine against Russia in the Black Sea. You have instances of manuever, but only behind rivers, otherwise it is attempting to fix fortifications and fight from trenches. It is nigh impossible to achieve surprise because of reconnaissance (in the Civil War via spies and sympathizers to both causes and in this war owing to drones and satellites). The front is enormous compared to the sizes of the armies. Another similar conflict is the World War 1, with the Ukrainians playing the role of Germany.
In both cases there was no question of "initiative" for either Germany or the South. Both took initiative whenever the mood or necessity dictated. The question was simply one of resources. Eventually, the resources, men, moral, and material, ran out. The same will happen to Ukraine, and soon. There army is at the point of collapse. What happens in Kiev is mostly irrelevant. Like Simplicius observes, whatever new government is installed will face the same circumstances as the current government: no domestic munitions production; complete dependence upon foreign supplies (which are less per annum than those of Russia); a dwindling pool of manpower; the destruction of all their seasoned, assault-capable infantry unites; and a dwindling stock of artillery tubes, drones, and missiles. There is no political or military solution to this problem. It is checkmate in 5 moves, and there is no escape.
I would sum it up as "don't wage a war of attrition against someone much bigger and stronger than you."
1. It's a fallacy to characterize waiting for the enemy to die on your defences as a lack of initiative. Russia's initiative was to create a formidable defence, which it did to excellent effect. It also took the initiative to ramp up, in a big way, its defence industry while swelling the size of its military by hundreds of thousands of soldiers. At the tactical level, even Ukrainian sources are now talking about Russia having the initiative in several areas along the front. While international defence analysts have concluded that Russia now has the most powerful military forces in the world.
If I've learned one thing in this conflict, it's that Russia doesn't wage war according to the 24 hour news cycle. Russia wages war with patience and resolve. Both will be necessary to complete the objectives that were set at the beginning of the SMO.
2. Zelenskyy's shelf life was perhaps a little longer than Liz Truss lasted against a head of lettuce, but it will take a Hail Mary miracle to save him now.
3. As soon as someone claims he knows a simple fact, I'm usually motivated to assume the opposite. It's nothing personal, but. That nations at war are positioning themselves for negotiations is a truism in every case, this conflict is no exception. I'm not privy to Russia's intentions, but I see no apparent intention on their part to accept a frozen conflict, nor any compelling reason why they should. Russia is looking very solid.
Churning them out!
Unfortunately, a little too fast and loose for this report to offer the reader credibility; wait and see is much better than a mish-mash of random speculation.
Anything specific you found uncredible?
A UkraineNazi lover I see
Uff da! What an idiotic statement, Mr. Brown. The truth is, I'm married to a true-blue Russian. This one was Simplicius' weakest report, so I softly said something. I came to that conclusion when I read it out loud to my bride while she prepared dinner last night. She thought the same. The difference is that she can understand any Russian spoken and written, so together, we understand the info being offered more clearly. Up to now, I've only given positive feedback. Still, it's a good thing you weren't here when you gave your silly Nazi-lover line; you'd have received a head full (rather than a mouthful) of delicious stroganoff mixed with those special mushrooms picked in the forest of Kazakhstan—a place like eastern Ukraine, where a lot of Russians were 'left behind' after the Soviet Union folded.
are you threatening me?
You wouldn't dare do that in real life nazi. I know you nazis love to resort to violence.
The online tough guy thing was stale 30 years ago.
time to grow up, dude.
life is short and you've got so much to learn. :)
Also you nazi, you never named specifics, in regards to what was wrong with this article, you are a troll, you are a nazi, you are a nut case. Get lost.
You are humorless and insane: Quite a combination. Good luck with that.
Let's skip the silly name-calling. Why do you call it "weakest"?
That is an honest question, BTW.
bet you he wont give an answer
Probably the first thing you got right this year. Congrats!
Sorry. I don't play Mr. Brown's idiotic game.
Strong on speculation, weak on predictive power.
Not that I necessarily blame him, the situation now defies prediction in some respects.
Just some unsolicited advice. You should make the effort to learn Russian, so you can understand the spoken parts with your wife. There's lots of reasons - but fundamentally it's very respectful towards a spouse whose native tongue is foreign to your own.
FWIW.
My buddy, after building some stuff on site, married a Russian gal from Siberia and I am married to a wonderful woman born in Poland. Both speak their native languages, but my wife and especially her parents had to learn German and Russian (to survive).
On one thing this Polish woman and Russian woman agree without reservation - Ukraine was being set up for annihilation by the U.S. and Nato. Both think if 1/2 the effort in time and money was spent on mutual understanding, compromise and Peace, the Ukraine might have a future. But with bloodthirsty U.S. warmongers and the European Colonies still in charge, Ukraine is done, done.
Well, its always hard to say when a state or its army folds. Slowly, slowly, then all of a sudden. Nobody can really make more than informed guesses. And that's what simplicius makes, really good informed guesses I would add.
I am astonished Ukraine made it that far to be honest, well a smaller much more weaker shadow of a former Ukraine at least. Didn't Borrell the EU "diplomat" say, if it wasn't for the Western nations support, Ukraine would have been done for in a couple of weeks?
GOD bless Vladimir Putin and Russia!
Rats fleeing a sinking ship. Ironic that Burns knew what would happen when he was US Ambassador to Russia from 2005-2008. His cable to his boss Condi Rice: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin's sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."
Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman is looking for a job - perhaps we can install him as Ukraine's President in the fianl act of a disastrous color revolution: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/alexander-vindman-cringeman-cringestack-kgb
All the Ukro-Nazi hoipoloi getting rounded up and hauled into court for corruption is great and I wish it would happen in the USA to the right scumbags! Currently it's the wrong scumbag getting tried in several courts.
No,it's only HALF of the right set of scumbags.
Except that corruption is but a pretext.
Biden and Netanyahu still walking free, killing innocents at random.
Oh... Too funny. Started laughing hard as soon as I read the article description. Going to put my serious face back on and soldier through.
"From the failure of the Istanbul agreements and the explosions of SP-1 and 2 to the death..."
What do SP 1 and 2 mean?
SP-1 and SP-2 in Russian Severnyi Potok 1 and 2 = North Stream 1 and 2
Thank you!
Vindman is a light colonel just give him a NATO brigade to command for “Counteroffensive II - We’re not Ver-done yet.”
Using the word "light" and Vindman together constitutes an oxymoron.
at least repetitious
Above the neck, "light" is entirely fitting.
I find it hilarious that anyone can print that the US will freeze the conflict until better times ahead; the Russians have a say and it's NO FREEZE - when Putin and Medvedev (great colourful language) say as much. Moving deck chairs -yawn.
shows you who is in control of the situation?
Perhaps Vindman could be sent right to the front lines.
What a POS this punk is. Dual citizen in the U.S. Army?
There are lots of non-citizens in the US Army.
Citizenship is a reward for service for aliens who enlist. There (were) lots of PTI people - people who were redirected from almost certain conviction on mostly drug offenses to a stint in the Army.
One reason why the US Army has a lot of issues with petty theft and such.
Let’s install him in charge of Ukraine DoD. Give him an AK47 and let him leaf his troops to glory (in the afterlife, of course. As he wouldn’t last a week at the front.)
Someone supplied all those Javelins (and other stuff) to Hamas from Ukraine and there's no way people at the Ukrainian MOD are not involved. I'm pretty sure there's a lot of pressure behind closed door from the US who are now really pissed their taxpayer dollars end up arming Hamas too.
They were warned this would happen. They didn't care. Then.
Does the U.S. MIC give a tinker's damn where and how their weapons kill, so long as they profit?
Masterful analysis. But your last point is the nut. This all relies on Russia running to the negotiation table. And why should they? Why stop when you are winning? Why would you let Ukraine get its breath and re-arm? And of course, this comes to the Evil Empire's hubris. They just cannot imagine anyone not taking "their" terms.
And that is where it gets interesting. So, they arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, and they call Russia. And Russia is happy to sit down. And to present the demands. Total Ukrainian disarmament. Kharkiv and Odessa. All sanctions lifted. Reparations for theft of Russian assets. Oh, and we are going to need those Nazi's for the War Criminal trials.
None of which is palatable. So back to the grind. At which point, they will just sweep Ukraine under the rug and forget it. Western citizens are so fucking stupid they will accept whatever the media prints. And Ukraine hangs slowly slowly in the wind like a hanged man.
I don't think Russia will offer terms.
I think Russia will say "Unconditional Surrender, no terms. Period. You don't like it the war goes on. Have a nice day."
My sentiments exactly.
Safe bet
I think at this point if Putin offered terms, it would cause a political earthquake in Russia. People sense that this is all about the future survival of the nation - terms can not be offered that will avoid creating uncertainty about that future. Why would Russia want to create such uncertainty among its people?
NATO would be pleased if Russia offered terms, no matter how harsh, as that would imply that Russia has doubts about its own ability to win, and this would be something NATO could use to save face. Russia refusing terms except unconditional surrender would completely humiliate NATO, possibly even causing a breakup of the alliance.
I completely agree. Only unconditional surrender will be acceptable, this reign of terror must end, and ending it in Ukraine is the first step to its final ending.
For Russia, and ultimately for the rest of the sane world, Ukraine must be shrunken and de-militarized. Negotiating a deal with Ukraine, will be the same conditions given Germany at Versailles. The seeds for the next World War.
The terms that brought in WW2 and Hitler's rise to power were the Reparations Germany had to pay, and the penalties if it could not. I doubt Putin would go that route, but the terms will be tough no question.
Solid perspective, concur. Here, 'possibly' is the new 'quite likely'
I don't think it will be "unconditional surrender" but it might as well be given the terms will amount to a foreign policy disaster for the USA/NATO and will fulfill completely Russian war aims. I would not expect to see Ukraine existing in anything like its current form after the shooting stops.
Humiliating NATO is not the goal. A neutral Ukraine is the goal. Russia very much does not want to occupy Ukraine, or even any more than what they already have. Russia can't afford such an economic liability. https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
Indeed if I were Vladimir Putin I would want the USA to save as much face as possible while quitting the war. As things stand today the US can claim to have foiled Putin's secret plan to revive the USSR.
I doubt the self-esteem of the neocons is high on Putin's list of war aims.
Au Contraire. There will be an equal economic cost for Ukraine either way. Russia doesn't need to occupy all of the Ukraine, just east of the Dnieper and the South. Nearly all "Ukrainians" speak Russian, had a working relationship with Russia, pre-Nazi control and now have had a taste of the price of supporting the Thieves of Kiev. Ukraine can become like Canada is to the U.S. A token military, cheap resources and a reliable mouthpiece when the U.S. organ grinder beckons. And unlike Russia, when the U.S. "blew-up" Keystone, Canada said, "thank you."
If he can embarrass NATO of course that's a nice side effect.
I've lived in Russia twenty years. The war is not popular. People forget that Russians themselves view it as a civil war. Lots of people have been affected personally, either because they have friends or family in Ukraine, or their friends and family are from Ukraine. Also, people trust Putin's judgment - not in a sycophantic way due to propaganda, but because he's demonstrated good judgment over the decades of his rule.
Long and short, if Putin agrees to a peace agreement of any sort, Russian people are likely to be both happy about it and to think it's a good idea.
You must live in a very special enclave.
Perhaps the war isn't popular, but it is viewed as necessary, even vital.
Although Putin has had a European leaning in the past, the ground has changed and so has Putin. Putin doesn't hold all the cards but the rest of the cards are face up on the table.
Unless you live in Moscow or St Petersburg, I do not understand your comment. If you do live there, then I fully understand why you say what you say. My wife is Russian and we have friends from Crimea to Krasnoyarsk. We watch Russian TV nightly on multiple channels. We observe the political class in Russia - the Duma, state security apparatus, government ministers. We connect daily with social media contacts in Russia as well as popular commentators in Russia. In all of that, I sense that the war is not something "popular" in Russia, but "necessary". Almost the entire political class is not only supportive of the war but realises, through experience, the implications of making unwise concessions to the West in any form.
So in the end, I really don't believe you that the Russian people would be happy about any deal short of unconditional surrender, made by Putin. He might be extremely popular, and certainly he is, but his power comes from the fact that he listens to people around him and in the general population and that he truly has the benefit of Russia in his heart, not his own interests. People sense that and that is why he is popular.
I agree...
I don't think Putin will be fooled again. I remember, back in Dec 22, he said:
"Merkel’s comments vindicate Ukraine operation
Putin said he was surprised and disappointed by former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s confession that the purpose of the Minsk peace agreements was to “buy time” for Ukraine. However, he added that it justified Moscow's military operation against Kiev.
“Their point was only to load up Ukraine with weapons and prepare it for hostilities. We see that. Honestly, we may have realized that too late, and maybe should have started all this sooner,” Putin said.
While he knew that Ukraine did not intend to implement the deal, “I thought other participants in that process were honest. Turns out they too were deceiving us,” said the Russian president.
How to negotiate with “trust at zero”
The deception about Minsk now raises a “question of trust,” said Putin, noting that it is currently “almost at zero.” The real question now is whether negotiations about anything with anyone are even possible, and what would guarantee any eventual deal, he added. “In the end, there will have to be talks. We are ready for them, I have said that many times. But it does make us think, who we’re dealing with.”
from: https://www.rt.com/russia/567979-putin-biskhek-press-takeaways/
Who would guarantee any deal?
How do you say "Eff You" in American?
Trust Me.
Why would Russia need guarantees from anyone if Russian terms to a probable Ukraine interim military cabal sometime next year are surrender with no conditions and they agree.
If Russia does less, leaves any inch of Ukraine soil other than possibly the crazed Galicia region in Western/Polish hands, a Western nuclear capable base with be set up in a nanosecond.
Sure, the West can set up a Zelensky govt in exile somewhere, but so what.
I've been thinking about this and I think everyone is more or less wrong about what the world looks like after this.
Consider a lengthy Russian border along the Baltics, Poland and down to the Black Sea. Direct confrontation with NATO. There were already issues in Belarus this year. Since the neocons provoked Russia, they're going to have to negotiate for peace, not get it by default.
We're back to the Cold War in some respects.
When you say direct confrontation with NATO are you considering a Ukraine 2.0 under Russian control/management would be part of Russia? Because I don't see that as Russia's goal.
They want a sane, non-NATO, neutral nation next door, not to expand what is already the largest country in the world. If they have to manage it for the next 20 years so be it, it may take that long to get it back up and running anyway given all the shelling, destruction, and death.
True we are back to a Cold War, but the strength of the respective players is very different this time. How long will it last, probably long enough for the EU to fall as it relates to the Continent. And for the US to either fall or be torn apart and hopefully rebuilt via civil unrest and possible war.
I wonder if the US does fall will Russia and China come in as a Peace Keeping Force? At this point anything is possible. We live in interesting times. I frankly am not too happy about that.
I'm afraid there's a high probability Putin might agree to some sort of truce. Putin's a peace-nik at core and he would also not like the optics of not taking an offer of peace, how that would look to the rest of the world, esp the global south. He's been careful so far not to actually "say" Russia will take these 4 provinces. His peacenik credentials are also to be seen how he's directed the war to be as gentle as possible on Ukraine. I just have a bad feeling that Putin will accept terms instead of crushing the enemy.
RU starting position will be visavis the December 2021 proposals of European Security framework.
RU will negotiate with US not UKR.
I agree, and yes I believe they would only negotiate with the US as things stand now. But if the Ukraine govt is overthrown, and military they know comes in, they may negotiate with them.
The reason I say military they know is that most of Ukraine's senior military and Russia's all went to the same military schools, they have known each other for years and there are probably discussions happening even today.
As of now Russia may insist that the US negotiate, but things may change.
Any interim UKR govt needs to be legitimized and accepted by the collective West, in order for RU to stop.
Following public acceptance from Merkel & Hollande (not to mention UKR signatories) that they signed Minsk2 in bad faith (by the way, isn't it a reason enough for the SMO) RU will settle for nothing else than feeling "secure", the state and the RU ethnos abroad (by the way acceptance of all minorities is on paper propagated by collective West).
No "interim" UKR govt can provide with such an assurance; UKR is unfortunately the ram manipulated by foreign actors to hit RU.
And of course as prerequisite to have every year in May Ursula in person -she is fluent in french- to announce : Roussie douze points. This is not negotiable :) :)
Maybe, but why?
Why should Russia need or want approvals of a Ukraine interim govt from a bunch of warmongering, sanctioning nitwits? Who are so stupid and craven as to let their "Partner" destroy their energy security?
If there is a Ukraine military takeover that wants to negotiate with Russia, of course Russia will speak with them. And if I were Russia I would be delighted if the West failed to recognize the Ukraine govt.
For that would mean that the entire BlackRock/Clinton Foundation/Soros/IMF team, with their plan to "help" rebuild Ukraine can never set foot into Ukraine. Hah, that is a win-win.
Let them fund a Zelensky govt in exile with offices in Miami and Paris till Hell freezes over.
Yes, and that framework does not have Russia taking over 4 provinces. So that's another 'out' for the legal-minded peacenik Putin to accept a weak victory.
My sentiments exactly, as well.
There was a time when terms could've been made, but that was before the invasion. Russia has since crossed that Rubicon, and I expect them to stay the course for total victory over NATO.
Absolutely, Ukraine is at 404 levels, it no longer exists.
As for NATO my guess in a few years, possibly less, it will be "in tatters."
This Western citizen and some others don't fit your description although at one time I did. I don't think Russia will accept anything short of unconditional surrender. Zaluzhny better deliver.
Putin should remind Biden that he sent a way for all this carnage to be avoided, but Biden turned him down. Now if Biden wants to negotiate a ceasefire, Putin should tell him that the same terms apply, but Biden will have to agree that the Donbas voted fairly to join Russia and that he has to admit that Crimea too fairly voted to rejoin Russia and Biden has to admit that too. Oh yeah…and NATO gives up the countries it admitted and remove the weapons there too. Would love to see America suffer some humility.
Oh yeah and the Nazis involved in the Maidan square massacre have to be identified and arrested and held for trial.
Yet why bother with Biden, if I were Putin I would wait to see what the next administration looks like, and decide then whether speaking to them is warranted. Time is on Russia's side, in Ukraine, in the Middle East, in the world.
But the clock is running out on the US, anyone can see it. The debt is unsustainable, the ability to defend seems limited, the open borders are burying State economies, unemployment is high, the schools are turning out people unable to read or add, and the corruption of the ruling junta is breathtaking.
The nation is being deliberately destroyed from within as the President of El Salvador said. Is it best to stand clear during such times, probably.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/salvadoran-president-nayib-bukele-breaks-silence-points-obvious-usa-cant-destroyed-quickly-unless-enemy-within/
"But the clock is running out on the US, anyone can see it. The debt is unsustainable"
But, but, but...the USSA can PRINT the interest for the debt....and, it follows from DC logic that the USSA can also PRINT A WIN !
The game always ends. See Weimar Republic for details.....
Good points. Putin knows that he isn’t actually dealing with Biden, but the neocons who have been in every administration going back to Reagan. Blinken, Nuland and Sullivan are the ones who are telling Biden what he should do. Except that Biden has been for every war going back to Yugoslavia. Putin has said that America is incapable of agreement and he is right. Has America ever kept an agreement it’s signed?
America has spent over $8 trillion on wars starting with Afghanistan and just imagine how that money could have helped us here at home. Kunstler said that Biden is destroying the country and I agree with him. Look at how bad things have gotten in just 3 years.
While I don't recommend it as a read, as it is very turgid and repetitious, one of Mearsheimer's books does a good job of explaining the mental map of liberal hegemony. These people have been schooled in this and believe it intrinsically. Fukuyama is some kind of prophet to them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man
As in any form of real change, a moment when you question your own beliefs is required. For addicts, this moment is referred to as "rock bottom". It's just as applicable here. I'm not sure what rock bottom looks like to the neocons. You can't know what it is for someone else. But the lesson needs to be administered and I don't think Ukraine in and of itself will be sufficient.
Lmao the Natoids will never swallow their pride. Not going to happen.
The war will continue until Ukraine agrees to be neutral with a limited army.
I don't think it can be allowed to end until the fat lady sings. By which I mean, Victoria Nuland Kagan testifies fully and truthfully about what the western powers ownership class required be done by her and her cohort in Eastern Europe/Russia's near abroad- and WHY. This singing to be performed at her trial for crimes against humanity.
I doubt that ever happens. The leadership of great powers doesn't get hauled in front of a war crimes trial unless the nation in question is utterly defeated. You can think of the nuclear deterrent as protection against Ms. Nuland getting her just desserts.
If one wanted to make her feel the pain, brushing up on one's writing skills would be the proper course. She'll have to be savaged in history.
Savage a savage?
I've heard the U.S. is seriously considering sending Vicky Nuland and Ann Applebaum to Siberia as security for Ukraine Peace.
Exactly, the wars don't end in peace, they end in VICTORY. That's what Russians do.
Perhaps I would agree, if one took into account that some of those victories were of the Pyrrhic sort. Meaning it would have been better for the war to have never happened.
Winning back this part of Russia is a Patriotic victory not a Pyrrhic...
Russia has never shown any desire to take Odessa. Taking the city has definite negative consequences. It will turn whatever remains of Ukraine into a rump stain with low economic prospects, and push it into dependency on Poland. Putin has never demanded the impossible; his political demands have always been within the real of the other party to delivery. Reparations from Ukraine for Russian losses are clearly untenable, and so clearly will not be made - and Putin understands the history of the interwar period (1920s - 1930s) and the consequence of Versaille on Germany.
I think exactly what is palatable to the Kremlin might surprise you, and everyone else. I have no idea what it is; but I do know that Russia tried hard for years to find an alternative to war. There's no reason to think that because they're in a war they felt unavoidable now, that they've changed their fundamental approach to the world.
Ukraine is far, far more divided than old Germany.
The common language of Germany was German.
The common language of Ukraine is Russian. Ask Zelensky what language he spoke most of his life and behind closed doors.
Ukraine, was cobbled together by the Soviets. Little in common.
This is super accurate. Galicia more probably should have been included in Poland. It's been Polish-dominated for a very long time. The rest of Ukraine is not that much different than Russia proper. We can blame Stalin for a lot of this border mismatch. He had his reasons for creating buffer zones in the west after the war..
WTF? Why would they announce that they were considering dismissing these officers? That makes no sense in any context.
It makes sense from the context of someone who wants to sow discord and distrust between the Ukrainian military and Zelensky administration.
The loudest voices suggesting it publicly are at the top of Zelensky's own party in Rada (Ukrainian parliament). I'd say the discord and distrust is already their and growing, not being sown.
I think the OP's point was that why would you tell someone they are about to be fired. It's virtually inviting a coup d'etat.
What makes them think Russia will agree to a ceasefire? Dumfuks all.
You have that right. Andrei Martyanov hammers that point constantly.
..How about Klitschko president instead of Zaluzhny? What has Zaluzhny achieved a part desiring to retreat from here or from there? He's not going to end the conflict, he did not hint at that in his 'the economist' article
Simplicus: The one stop source for all things concerning the rump states of the USSA.
The Ukranian armed forces were reshaped and trained by the British since 2016. There are multiple accounts of this. Ukraine was to be the perfect platform to attack Russia proper. A good chunck of the British military, intelligence, finamce and industrial complex worked hard on Ukraine for years. What a fantastic loot. After the Maidan Ukraine became an anglosionist colony. At the beginning it was a cheap grab, costing only 5 billion dollars to take over the biggest country in Europe. Investors flocked from all sides: hard industry, weapons, training, cheap fertile land, fisheries, child and organ trafficking, prostitution, biowarfare, money laundering, drugs, cheap workforce... you name it. Now the bill rose up to 300 billion and they are reaching the profit investment margins. That is to say that the Ukranian gold mine worthed 295 billion in profits plus the corresponding x10 times derivatives. If the war stops now they can still very much squeeze white the Ukranian cow by means of reconstruction IMF programs and so on. A bad peace now could mean a strategic defeat for Russia.
Russia sees that too.
There is no way Russia wants or will allow BlackRock, the Clinton Foundation, Soros, the IMF and god knows what other horrors to set up shop next store.
US is like an emperor without clothes if they think they can just offer a ceasefire and Russia will suck it up: they won't, given all the duplicity Putin encountered from NATO since he came to power and especially the Minsk II betrayal.
The US government thinks they can obtain a ceasefire from Russia to freeze the conflict (until they decide to start it again). In the past, Putin arranged ceasefires at the very moment when the Ukrainians were most desperate, such as after the Battle of Debeltsavo. However, by doing so, Putin bought time for Russia to prepare for the inevitable war with NATO, in particular by modernizing its military air defenses and attack missiles. Russia has spent the past 18 months upgrading to a full war footing and is now flush with well trained soldiers and equipment. I think that the Biden Administration will find that Russia is not interested in negotiations. They will allow the rotation of leadership in Ukraine, and then take advantage of it to complete the destruction of the Ukrainian military and obtain surrender on terms favorable to Russia.
I think RF would be very happy to freeze the conflict at the current lines... They shrugged off the once-dreaded sanctions, and proved they're more than capable of standing up to NATO on the battlefield. That can easily be sold as a win for both domestic audience in Russia, and to Russia's actual partners (eg China & "global south"). The stark contrast vs Israel is icing on the cake in that regard.
Only problem is NATO side can't be trusted to actually voluntarily see through a compromise. This is unfixable.
Putin and RF MoD have been quite steady in limiting the intensity of the action however. So not expecting any big move.
This is a war, not a public relations battle. "Selling something" is not Putin's objective. He has made his objectives plain right from the start. I doubt very much that he will settle for less when he holds the whip hand, has already deemed the West agreement incapable, and knows perfectly well a freeze works only to the West's benefit and against Russian strategic interests at an existential level.
On the contrary, Russian leadership has in the recent past gone to tremendous lengths to explain to the world (like, really the whole world, not specifically the west) every step of the way. And very meaningful sacrifices were made in the name of restraint, in spite of domestic criticism including the military, to show that RF is not like the Americans/clients in how they conduct war. And while the gestures were spit on by UA who proceeded to engage in terrorism and so on, the contrast vs Israel and US double standards is unignorable. This means thecampaign by RF to mend fences with the Islamic world (Akhmat Sila etc) may actually bear very significant fruit. Billions of people. No small feat considering mixed feelings in the post Soviet world.
Anyway, as we do agree, US/NATO lack of trustworthiness in the current generation makes actually freezing the conflict a moot point.
Apples and oranges, I think. The "hearts and minds" battlespace is considerably larger, from Russia's POV, than the SMO. However, the SMO is an existential battle for them, and they understand it will not be won in the approval, or lack of it, from the Global South, say. It will be won with the brute steel power of Russian industry coupled with the blood and fire on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Russia's open determination to follow law, procedure, treaty, and due process is more of a testimony to the future, and the other nations of the world. They know perfectly well that NATO is completely deaf to it.
I disagree 100%: there is no interest in Russia whatsoever in a frozen conflict.
Not at the leadership level, not in the military, not in the public.
If anything, Putin is restraining a push to the Polish border.
I wonder what would be a natural demarcation line for Russia, as a military objective
The current Polish/Ukraine border comes to mind
@Bruce-PNW
Excluding Gallicia, which they do not fancy.
The problem with Galicia is that if you don't control it, it is like a festering boil that will eventually poison the territories around it.
The "line" would be the accomplishment of the objectives of the SMO, including full de-Nazification.
In addition, I'd wager that Russia would inside that every oblast hold a referendum on whether it wants to stay in Ukraine or join Russia.
Full capitulation is unlikely. If the Russians start actually fighting to the polish border it will guarantee, without a doubt, direct engagement with nato and ww3. There is no practical way to reach the border without fighting forces on both sides of it.
It would also galvanise popular support in the west. The Russians will take all this into account
Russia will probably throw pieces of western Ukraine to the Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians to chew on and push the hard-line Bandera lovers there. The massive clear victory is not optically optimal for Russia precisely because it will unite the currently divided West against Russia.
The only rationale for negotiation would be the above referendums whether to join Russia or re-implement Minsk II but at the point of a Russian gun.
Rumors are starting to circulate that Russia plans to implement a Maidan III to end the SMO.
My view is that a number of additional oblasts are now at play.
These would include Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Odessa, Chernishev, Cherkasy, Nicolaev, Kirovohrad, Vinnitsa, Poltava. Further West plus Kiev, likely pointless.
Strategically militarily: Odessa is the most important: cut rump Ukraine off from the Black Sea and terminate NATO/US ambitions there for at least a generation. Odessa would also link up Transnistria with Russian territory.
Geopolitically, some form of land connection to Hungary and Serbia would be very beneficial but that would pretty much require going to the Polish border and pacifying OUN style guerrillas for a long time.
Denazification requires conquest. Period.
Possible, but another possibility is a Constitutional Amendment banning say, Bandera/OUN type political parties.
And while I would fully agree that such an amendment would never be voluntarily agreed to by the present Ukraine, it is eminently possible as part of a set of dictated terms following an unconditional surrender. Look at the political terms Japan had to agree to in 1945.
As such, there are options besides outright conquest (and occupation).
If the war ends with Western Ukraine being a NATO/EU state that can be used to build up an ant-Russian force and missile base, then Russia will have wasted all their blood and money on this war. The only outcome that Russia will accept is that the Ukrainian rump state is constitutionally neutral, demilitarized, and not a member of NATO.
So much for the war lasting another two years! LOL It's over, baby!
Whoever runs Ukraine will be forced by the US to "freeze" the conflict - except Russia ain't accepting no "freezes", homey! It's "surrender or bust" - and despite what Alexander Mercouris might think, "bust" is just fine with Putin and his team if they can't get surrender. And surrender is the same as bust for Ukraine, except maybe a few fewer people die on both sides.
Beginning to look like Russia will be on the Polish border by New Years Eve, if Ukraine surrenders. If not, well, Russia will get there soon enough.
I feel like it was over when sanctions didnt work and we found out Russia makes weapons as fast as China makes chop sticks. They have 120 million more people. Better weapons 10x more. So really only hope was food riots in Moscow.
China produces 45 billion chopsticks per year. That seems about right lol.
War will last years maybe 10-20-30 years...ukraine will end up like Syria a failed state, empty of his inhabitants which will provide the EU with cheap labor to destroy the living standards of their own people about whom they could care less.That is the West main goal as Eurasia is divided forever, no more brics soon? (see Pepe article), western politicos are trapped they will prefer this no win no lose situation than to lose face like never before in 2000 years, otherwise the all rules bases disorder collapses. I agree with Mark Sleboda on his pessimistic take since 2014.Russian gas, no need anymore as gaza new soon seized natgaz + oil will replace it.
Both 404 and gaza are linked since day one. Connecting the dots.
Fake arab states leaders or muslims one don't even care about Palestine (see the pathetic meeting in SArabia, lot of words zero action).
Argentina will leave brics before even entering it, UAE and Saudis will follow, Iran it will take more time but if regime change one day also. Even Egypt can leave by pressure, India is not reliable they support Israhell and don't count on XI too much...
It is time for Russia to finaly realize that it is time to declare war (not smo) on Ukraine and finish the job ''à la IDF'', to give the West not a single hope that there will be anything but full surrender, no stalemate, ceasefire, Minsk 3 etc..but as Putin is ..Putin this will not happen as elections are approaching fast (march 17th?). Russia must not wait for his ennemy to collapse as it may take years in defense position, if RU wants to really wins(I mean a real big win which will be impossible even for the Western prostitutes jornos to deny it) and scare NATO or any other entity for at least another 100 years. What should have been done in feb 2022, today the war would be over and a total victory. And many Russian soldiers died for almost nothing even Donbass is far to be liberated, daily danger comes out of Odessa with attacks on Crimea etc....
What stalemate analysis?
You are confusing internal Ukrainian agitprop with reality.
Why hurry to close the door to an efficient mouse trap?
"At this pace Avdeevka could still potentially hold out another 2-3 months"
I'll remember that prediction.
Yep. Avdeevka is poised to fold like a deck of cards. Commanders saw it already and bugged out apparently not even telling the troops who only found out the next morning.
@Scott
When I read that those brassy rats had snuck off the sinking ship, my first thought was: Did they leave their "blocking forces" inside the soon to be closed cauldron? And how easy are those enforcers to tell from the other bag holders?
Good question. I'd think the russkies would see that as a distinction without a difference.
I was thinking more in line with the Ukrainian grunts being able to say "screw THIS noise!" And save themselves. If the officers are gone and the Nazi commissars, WHY DIE today?
Ahh. I was thinking "enforcers" as in the mercs or Nazis that shoot the new recruits who want to surrender. Maybe they bugged out with the command though.
We mean the same bunch of asshats. The "shoot 'em in the back if they try to surrender, but WE don't do assaults personally" brigade. Who deserve a very special place in Hell, but since this is all the hell there ever will be, right here & right now, we need to make it special for them RFN.
“could still potentially”
Always good to cover your bases when predicting the future...