Wild Day as the Ukrainian Game of Thrones Revs Up!

The Ukrainian project is starting to come undone at the seams. What began as hints of brewing conflict has now turned into a full-scale rift between the Ukrainian leadership and military staff.

A storm of new reports paint a dismal picture of a final desperate scramble for power.

⚡️ Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov is preparing submissions for dismissal :

- Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev (may become one of the main defendants in the case that concerns the defense of the Kherson region in 2022);

- Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky;

— Commander of the Medical Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Tatyana Ostashchenko;

This was reported by Ukrayinska Pravda with reference to sources in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

And:

Rumors are beginning to circulate that a major purge of the MOD is imminent. The new Minister of Defense Umerov is preparing proposals for the dismissal of the commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine T. Ostashchenko Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev. Earlier today, ex-People's Deputy Borislav Bereza, citing sources in the State Bureau said that Naev and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny could be served with suspicions (of crimes).

Here’s Bereza’s post referenced above:

Keep in mind, in such a flood of reports it’s nigh impossible to corroborate or verify them all, but taken as a whole they represent a general sense of the urgent escalation happening behind the scenes.

From Rezident_UA channel:

Ukrainian sources write that Andriy Ermak will allegedly try to coordinate with the Biden Administration the replacement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, who is not satisfied with the Office of the President.

It was Zaluzhny who refused to begin the second stage of the counter-offensive with crossing the Dnieper and proposed to go on the defensive instead of offensive actions.

So Yermak/Zelensky are trying to coordinate with Biden to get rid of Zaluzhny, while other forces coordinate with Zaluzhny to boot Zelensky?

Ihor Mosiychuk, former Rada deputy and former Azov Battalion deputy commander, released a series of videos today speaking on the subject, which I’ve compiled below. He appears to confirm Yermak’s trip to DC to boot Zaluzhny:

In fact the drama and intrigue is coming to such a boil as to reach levels of absurdity most of us have never seen. A People’s Deputy in the Ukrainian Rada, Oleksandr Dubinsky—who happens to be in a major quarrel with the above Mosiychuk, as well—released this statement today on his official social media accounts. He openly calls Yermak “the real president of Ukraine,” begging Tucker Carlson to intervene, and even confirms yesterday’s wild theory that Zelensky is trying to contact Trump in order to get him to “unblock” Ukrainian aid via the Republican party which Trump is perceived to control:

I am publicly addressing journalist Tucker Carlson, who will not be afraid to cover the topic of political persecution of the only politician and former journalist in Ukraine, who openly spoke about corruption of the country’s senior officials and the facts of theft of US financial assistance through the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in which deputies of the Servant of the People Party and officials of the Office of the President are involved.

Now the real president of Ukraine named Yermak is in the United States trying to convince the American government that there is no corruption in Ukraine, and to blame the theft committed by him and those from his circle on the scheming of “Kremlin agents.” He is also trying to arrange a telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump in order to gain support in Congress for aid to Ukraine, which he and Zelensky are plundering.

I am the only one talking about this corruption, which is supported by numerous facts and journalistic investigations, and it is for this that they want to put me in jail on yet another trumped-up charges.

By joining our forces, we will be able to reveal to the world the truth about the gang of swindlers who captured Ukraine. Reveal the Ugly Truth that Yermak and Zelensky and their associates are trying to hide.

And low and behold, now there’s a treason case against Dubinsky who was raided by the SBU. Mosiychuk shortly released a new video claiming Dubinsky is under house arrest on orders of Yermak, presumably for the statements above, and that he’s under suspicion of being a Russian GRU agent with codename ‘Buratino’.

⚡️⚡️⚡️People's Deputy Dubinsky was again visited by the SBU and the State Investigative Bureau, Ukrainian TG channels report with reference to a source.

It is reported that this time he appears in a treason case⚡️⚡️⚡️

Ukrainian networks “exploded” with memes, as Buratino is Russian for Pinocchio:

You can see the SBU raid his home here.

Are you shaking your head yet?

Continuing, last time I had referenced the Ukrainian ex-General Marchenko’s recent comments vis a vis Zaluzhny—which Mosiychuk also references above. Now you can see for yourself how in Ukrainian society, suddenly it’s becoming quite fashionable to begin conditioning viewers to the acceptance of Zaluzhny as president. Here on a popular network the host and Marchenko openly float the idea:

He says God grant that Zaluzhny becomes president, and they would both very much like that to happen. Do you see what’s happening, folks?

Now, there’s word that the CIA Director himself, William Burns, is heading straight to Kiev on Nov. 15th, under the obviously logical explanation that the purpose of the urgent visit is to convince Zelensky to freeze the conflict. Read the astute analysis below:

On Wednesday, November 15, CIA Director William Burns is scheduled to visit Kiev. The chief American intelligence officer will try to convince Zelensky that it is necessary to temporarily freeze the conflict and for now refuse to return lost territories by military means.

That is, in fact, Burns suggests Zelensky commit political suicide, because a truce and a freeze mean the complete and final collapse of his career. If the President of Ukraine agrees, there will be a carrot waiting for him: an honorary pension in Europe or the USA. If he refuses, they will use the whip: the Biden administration will turn on the spigot of military and financial assistance.

Most likely, Zelensky will refuse and will become a problem for the United States. And they know how to solve them; the history of South Vietnam will not let you lie. In principle, Burns’ visit is the last chance for Zelensky to return to the track of American politics. His resistance will mean that the US will begin to pursue a “freeze” line using more stringent methods.

Another thing is that this “freezing” is a temporary phenomenon. Any American administration - Biden, Trump or the bald devil - will never give up such a bridgehead on the borders of Russia, which is today's Ukraine. Its appearance is a great foreign policy success for the US. And Washington will fight to preserve it.

The US needs a pause in the war in order to solve its internal problems, put out the fire in the Middle East, try to find a status quo with China, and at the same time re-equip the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the war will continue in any case, the only question is with or without a break. Well, Burns will leave Kiev with nothing. But he will give Zelensky a black mark.

Recall that just yesterday a new ‘bombshell’ article from WaPo tried to sneakily pin the NordStream blame on Zaluzhny, by way of some stooge ‘taking orders’. It went out of its way to state that Zelensky ‘had no knowledge of what was happening.’

Interestingly, people pointed out how the information in the article was not particularly new, as an article from long ago had already outlined the same theories. So why resurrect this now?

It appears obvious that two competing factions are trying to outdo each other in the sphere of Western media. Zaluzhny fired his shot in the unsanctioned Economist piece, and it would seem that Zelensky backers are doing their own parallel counter-work.

So let’s summarize recent developments:

• Zaluzhny’s aides are deleted, one by assassination

• Large-scale new ‘house cleaning’ of entire general staff is reportedly announced from Zelensky’s side

• Major media campaigns from both sides push urgent narratives of stalemates, Zaluzhny implying the war will be lost, and an eye-opening exposé on a ‘isolated’ and ‘messianic’ Fuhrer-bunker version of Zelensky

• Zelensky suddenly cancels presidential elections, likely sussing the plan to promote Zaluzhny as challenger

• Money spigot has still been turned off for the foreseeable future, with no realistic plans on horizon at the moment

• Ukraine now catastrophically losing on virtually every front of the war, set to soon lose another major, strategically critical city

• Many influential voices like Arestovich now openly push ceasefire

• The ‘grim reaper’ CIA director set to pay visit, which only happens on eve of some major pivot or escalation. Diplomats and Foreign Secretaries are sent to ‘discuss options’ or ‘negotiate’—CIA directors are sent to deliver final threats of action

Now, much of the foregoing information is already being discussed elsewhere. But the one chief question no one else seems to be asking is the most critical of all: if factions in the West intend to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny, then what is the actual purpose? What do they intend for Zaluzhny to do or accomplish that Zelensky cannot?

Some haven’t thought this through, and just assume that “Zaluzhny is a strong leader” and therefore is being made to replace Zelensky so that he can whip the military into shape and win the war. But why would Zaluzhny need to be president to do that? He’s already the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and that’s literally his job description.

So, logically speaking, the only possible explanation I can see making sense is that Zaluzhny is being chosen to sell the ceasefire to the people. Such a thing would sound more acceptable from the standpoint of a military leader and strategist who can explain that the situation is hopeless without time to recover and replenish the forces with an armistice. And more importantly, to sell it to the troops. Coming directly from the general the troops respected would make it far more palatable than coming from the sniffly, jonesing, headcase-in-cargo-pants.

But the problem is, this clashes with Zaluzhny’s own Oped where he pushed for more weapons and more war, and didn’t seem keen to accept any ceasefires, but simply warned that this would be the case if nothing was done. Of course, he could potentially twist that into complying with both antipodes by proposing that all those newfangled arms and robots he requested in his piece could be provided during a ‘temporary détente’, particularly one sold to the public with the added flair of some kind of NATO candidacy guarantee, etc.

This is speculation, but on simple logic, I can only assume that Zelensky’s brewing initiative to cleanse the ranks is aimed at getting rid of all ‘collaborators’ who may already be party to a growing Zaluzhny-helmed conspiracy to oust him. In short, he may be trying to decapitate all Zaluzhny loyalists to prevent the seizure of power by armed military coup in the near to medium-term future.

For the record, this announcement came from Alexey Goncharenko, high ranking deputy of the Verkhovna Rada:

On his official Telegram with over 250,000 subscribers he posted:

This week there will be procedural actions against the generals. Bankova makes her move.

And this was backed, as stated earlier by ex-Rada deputy Bereza who stated his own sources in the State Bureau of Investigation have corroborated the coming purge:

: Ex-Rada deputy Borislav Bereza throws in with Goncharenko. Says high level military firings are imminent based on his "sources within the State Bureau of Investigation"

Recall Russian intel bigwig Patrushev’s recent statement that there are people ‘waiting in the wings’ ready to take over power in Kiev, hinting at a coming military coup.

Today, soldiers from AFU’s 28th brigade said they’ll take up arms if Zaluzhny is arrested:

💥💥💥Ukrainian militants speak in defence of Zaluzhniy

The AFU men from the 28th brigade said that if the commander-in-chief is arrested, they will take up arms to rescue him💥💥💥

⚡️As they say, stock up on popcorn!⚡️

One final interesting observation is the angle of ‘corruption’ has been pushed very heavily by involved players. We’ve spoken about this before but there’s a reason MSM articles began to appear over the past couple months once again accusing Ukraine of being corrupt, and Zelensky specifically, airing various bits of dirty laundry on his regime.

Then Arestovich began to season the stew with a constant string of attacks, specifically, against Zelensky’s “corruption” and how this is the main issue plaguing Ukraine.

El Mundo:

Now, with his new pledge of support for Zaluzhny, ex-General Marchenko actually cited corruption as the main reason for this support; reminder:

Maj. General of the AFU Dmitry Marchenko believes that Ukraine needs a president with the experience of the French army Charles de Gaulle, who will defeat corruption, and this could be the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian troops Valery Zaluzhny - RIA Novosti

So it’s clear that the corruption angle can be used as the main tip of the spear against Zelensky, but the second part is that it could also potentially be used as one of the reasons to pause hostilities. For instance, Zaluzhny could take power and say “we cannot win this war with the vast corruption the previous Zelensky regime has bequeathed to us, so let us take this détente to clean up all the mess that Zelensky left, and in a couple years we’ll emerge as a glorious, sparkling European Nation™, by way of both EU and NATO membership, etc. It can be argued that it will take some time to clean all the deeply embedded rank corruption in all layers of the state which Zelensky putatively left.

Here’s one astute analysis on this angle:

More and more experts and heads of intelligence services around the world are inclined to think that without the removal, including by force, of the top military-political leadership of Ukraine in the spring of 2024, the process of Ukrainian settlement will not begin.

The list of those subject to care or arrest includes from 10 to 25 people who must absorb all the toxicity of the current political realities.

From the failure of the Istanbul agreements and the explosions of SP-1 and 2 to the death and emigration of 18 million citizens of Ukraine. While this option does not suit only the UK, active discussions on this issue have begun in the USA.

Since the summer, Europeans have been actively discussing the topic of corruption in the highest echelons of power in Ukraine. The Stratfor company conducted its measurements among top officials of the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Turkey, EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia on the topic “how would you feel about the forceful scenario of the departure of President V. Zelensky and his entourage?” The data showed that if the loss of Zelensky at the head of Ukraine leads to a long-term settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian armed conflict, 62% are ready to allow such a solution to the issue.

In connection with the understanding of these realities, the percentage of video messages from Vladimir Zelensky in a deranged state from a room with white walls will only increase.

But then there is one final part to the equation. All this only takes into account Ukraine’s angle, with the assumption that Russia will play ball and agree to a ceasefire. Let’s say Zaluzhny wrests power and follows the playbook as described above, then heavy international pressure on Russia to sign a ceasefire begins. And what if Russia says, unequivocally, no? That’s when things will truly get interesting, because I don’t think the West has thought that far, nor has any plan for what to do after that point.

The only thing that can happen then is either Zaluzhny, being the supposed pro-grunt sympathetic general that he is, could betray the West and effect a total surrender to Russia in order to save hundreds of thousands of more Ukrainian lives, or he will have no choice but to basically become Zelensky 2.0, taking the former leader’s place as doomed steward to the Apocalypse of Ukraine, steering the sinking ship down with him as Russia simply overruns and destroys what’s left of the stricken rump-state.

The only question is what will be the breaking point? One idea is that Avdeevka will be the straw on the camel’s back. Not only will it be difficult for Zelensky in general to cover up for that failure, but even the forces waiting to ramp up the coup against him may be awaiting that final moment so they can use his failure of Avdeevka to rachet up all the propaganda of ‘failure’ as a final blow to oust him. We can likely expect a torrent of articles and engineered resistance against him in that case.

The knives are out!

So that being said, let’s turn briefly to Avdeevka itself to see how close we may be to such a moment.

Latest updates indicate Russian forces have briefly switched to the southeastern direction and have made several important breakthroughs of as much as 700m into the industrial sector at the SE edge of the city proper:

Here’s how those battles actually look at the moment in that exact sector:

Meanwhile the north is consolidating its new gains into Stepove and the outlying ‘steppe’ of fields.

From Ukrainian sources:

The situation continues to get worse for Ukraine. They’ve resorted to fakes and provocations, as usual, posting videos of Russian losses from mid-October. Despite this, one frontline Russian source said that the losses are currently 1:8 in Russia’s favor:

Whether we believe that or not, the fact is Russia is advancing daily and it’s looking no different than the Soledar-Bakhmut slow-constriction process.

I’ve seen a recent pro-UA article claiming that coming winter conditions will be either equally bad for both sides, or even worse for Russia. That makes no sense; winter conditions will clearly be worse for the AFU because particularly in winter you need a constant supply of things like oil and gas for heaters, generators, etc. Food becomes more critical because human bodies burn much more calories each day in the cold. All these things under extreme pressure due to supply line fire control means the entrenched and surrounded Ukrainian defenders will be in excruciatingly miserable conditions.

Additionally, complete defoliation of tree cover will give even clearer line of sight to Russian fire-control capabilities and allow easier identification of enemy positions to pound out.

That being said, Russia is in no particular rush and is likely enjoying the current meltdown happening amongst Ukrainian leadership. At this pace Avdeevka could still potentially hold out another 2-3 months, depending how hard Russia presses in. Particularly if Ukrainian reports are accurate, which say according to their side that Russia does not yet have full fire-control over that one main MSR

They claim Russia has partial control by attempting to strike vehicles with FPV drones, something I discussed last time. But that’s not a highly secure or dependable form of fire-control. They still need to get closer to establish director LOS for true FC systems like ATGMs, tanks, or laser guided mortars, etc.

But at the rate things are going, it sometimes feels like it’s a race between Avdeevka and Ukraine as a state itself, as to who will collapse first.

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