Discover more from Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge
Ukraine's Kremlin Gambit Marks Beginning of New, Darker Phase
A few brief statements and thoughts on Ukraine’s drone strike of the Kremlin earlier.
One thing in general to say, is that we are unquestionably heading towards a very tumultuous time in the next year and a half or so. The critical point of the Ukrainian war, which could happen this year, as well as the epochal 2024 election cycle which will have major connotations for the entire world.
It can be encapsulated in the following two captures, which I had seen side by side scrolling through social media:
There is a undeniable eschatological tint to events in the world currently. Many people are taking notice not only of spiraling geopolitical factors, but the general cultural zeitgeist trending towards the hopeless and nihilisitc:
If it’s not nuclear war, it’s AI takeover, or total collapse of some sort or another. The next year and a half, at least up through the 2024 election cycle, will be a critical and likely dark time of upheaval. There is every chance that another series of calamitous ‘black swan’ events will sweep the globe, orchestrated by the ruling class due to their failing Western system.
Yes, the Western system is failing. The financial system which is its very bedrock is coming undone. One example, published today is how this year’s banking collapses now dwarf that of 2008.
And it’s only just getting started, several new major banks are already starting to collapse.
This is not meant to be a long run-on reflection on the state of the world, but is to simply make a statement, which is that we are entering a time of troubled waters comprised of events which may seem unrelated, but are in fact intimately so.
The Ukrainian conflict will bear major ramifications on the all-important 2024 election cycle, already in its earliest goings, and vice versa. So, we must expect the unexpected; at this point, events can take a sudden sharp veering turn at any point.
With that said, what to make of the Kremlin attack? First a few words on the attack itself.
There were at least two drones, one of which appeared to be destroyed by electronic detonation / jamming just over the senate roof building. The senate building is where Putin holds the following attendance, rather than “where he sleeps” as some have claimed:
There were two figures seen climbing the roof as the drone came in, which the Ukrainian side claims proves that it was a Russian falseflag. It’s impossible to know who they were but I can only assume that either this is after the first drone had already hit, and they were spotters or the drone(s) was detected a ways out, and some sort of spotters/observers/secret service agents were sent to the roof, possibly even with disabling EW equipment, such as the handheld anti-drone guns, etc.
Ukrainian official accounts are already posting such mockeries:
One thing is clear, as the countdown to Ukraine’s supposed offensive finally begins, there will be—and already are—major ramp-ups of psychological attacks, including that of asymmetrical, diversionary, etc.
The purpose of these types of attacks is clear but multipart:
1. On the eve of their last big hurrah, they aim to un-balance Russia in any way possible. To make Russian citizens themselves lose trust and confidence in the leadership at a critical juncture, to make lower leadership, troops and unit commanders distrustful of higher ups, etc. To sow doubt, fear, confusion, and all the lower function instincts.
2. To condition the global audience for potential Russian responses which will in fact be long-prepared falseflag operations. It’s important to keep an eye on the nuclear-related information we recently heard of: the U.S. installing nuclear sensors in Ukraine. Now various rumors circulate about a potential Russian ‘tactical nuclear response’ against Ukraine. It’s clear that one of the possible provocation intentions is to steer public perception towards an eventual falseflag that will need to be utilized deus-ex-machina style to save the collapsing Ukrainian army when their offensive goes bust.
And what are these nuclear rumors? Well, after the Kremlin strike the Defcon Warning System Twitter account began to fearmonger by giving credence to rumors that Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons were put on higher alert:
Other things circulated, like the following, claiming that an uncommon number of important Russian military flights took place toward Moscow:
And then there were the claimed Tu-22m flights, which are capable of being armed with nuclear-capable Kh-47M2 Kinzhals.
Of course, Dmitry Medvedev himself fed these rumors when he flatly opined that Zelensky and his clique should now be taken out:
Telegram Channel Gulagu-Net spreads the following:
Urgent stream at 00: 30 Moscow time / Kiev. Appeal of Gulagu net founder and human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin to Russian pilots, ship commanders (Tu-22M3, Tu-160, etc.), squadron commanders, navigators, combat control officers, heads of control rooms and everyone related to long-range aviation and the aerospace Forces, as well as to their family members: "Don't follow a criminal order! Don't kill innocent people! Hang up! Refund!".
We are aware of the "readying" of a number of military units and air bases, we have already received more than 10 reports from various air regiments, and we know about the preparation of flights this night and early in the morning. We have important things to tell you. Listen to this and bring it to everyone who will be sent to the sky in Ukraine in a few hours.
Maximum repost. We'll start soon. This is vital!🕊
They claim that Russia is preparing a nuclear strike on Ukrainian territory at exactly 4am local time. These are the kinds of things I refer to when I say that the conditions are being prepared for people to actually believe Russia would do that, in order to give plausibility to a potential future falseflag.
Donbass underground organizer Vladimir Rogov reports some interesting updates as well. Firstly, an alleged warning from the U.S. Department of State to citizens in Kiev to prepare for possible attacks:
And then the following about Ukrainian elite special forces being given an immediate transfer order from Bakhmut to Zaporozhye front.
Special forces of the GUR are urgently transferred from Artyomovsk to Zaporozhye
I have repeatedly reported that my hometown, temporarily occupied by the Nazis, is filled with UAF militants who are actively occupying the apartments of local residents.
Today it was confirmed that a special unit of the GUR battalion "Solnyshko" ("Sonechko") was transferred from Artyomovsk to Zaporozhye.
The militants and leaders of this formation are already taking pictures with might and main near the monument to Prince Svyatoslav on the city Embankment in the Raduga area.
Apparently, the hours of "Bakhmut Fortress" are numbered, and the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remained unchanged.
On social networks, the militants of this GUR formation complain about the huge number of dead and wounded, and also beg for medical supplies.
Several senior Russian officials also issued quite strong and threatening statements.
Senior lawmaker Vladimir Vasilyev stated:
"The attack on the Kremlin, assassination attempts on political leaders, acts of sabotage at railways, electricity transmission lines, and infrastructure facilities, including the explosion of the Crimean Bridge, and gas pipeline blasts, are the facts of terrorist activities of the Kiev regime and its sponsors," Vladimir Vasilyev, leader of the ruling United Russia party’s faction in the State Duma, or lower house of Russia’s parliament, was quoted as saying on the faction’s Telegram channel.
And Russian state Duma deputy Viktor Sobolev issued the most scathing response of all:
“This is the last red line that could be. The authorities of the Russian Federation should immediately hit the decision-making center in Kiev for trying to kill Putin, ” State Duma deputy Viktor Sobolev.
At the same time, the deputy said that Russia, even after the assassination attempt on the president, would not bomb civilians in Kyiv:
“It is necessary to destroy infrastructure facilities through which military equipment is delivered to Ukraine. But civilians cannot be killed,” he said.
Zelensky for his part denied the attacks, claiming they don’t even have enough weapons to defend let alone attack Russia outright. He finished off the statement with the jab that he’ll leave Putin ‘to the tribunals’, rather than trying to assassinate him directly. Though interestingly, one of his own advisors left a cryptic message before the attack, seemingly anticipating it:
Zelensky on the other hand, in perfectly choreographed fashion, spent the day flying from Poland to Finland, then to the Netherlands—perhaps choosing to deliberately avoid a decapitation strike on Bankova street.
He’s completing a long weapons-haul circuit, begging every European country who’ll listen for increased arms.
Personally, I’m inclined to agree with the statements of this Russian mil-blogger, Zhivoz:
"My prediction regarding the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be exceptionally correct, as well as the motives that drive the scriptwriters of this offensive.
1. The fundamental goal of Ukraine and its allies is not the military defeat of Russia (this is an accompanying goal), but an attempt to bring down the entire system of power in Russia. Not to "remove Putin", namely to bring down the statehood.
2. The offensive, attacks by the Kremlin and other acts, including the choice of a date for May 9 - all these are elements of a complex scenario for the formation of public opinion in Russia unacceptable to the Kremlin, including among the military.
3. For these purposes, all means are used, including the very active work of spies and traitors in Russia itself, the superiority in the information component, Moscow's excessive humanism.
4. Based on these theses, it can be assumed that Kiev should receive serious military successes within a week, exactly by Victory Day. Hybrid attacks on Russian regions will continue, their goal is not so much damage as great humiliation.
5. At the front, in the near future, one can expect a massive missile volley both at troop positions and at rear facilities. And work on the NATO tactics of multiple strikes, infiltration, and so on.
The only true counter-scenario for Russia : an immediate exit from all "deals". Generally from all. Forever. And a powerful strike with all available means of destruction, with the exception of nuclear weapons, as well as declaring Ukraine a terrorist state, and all its leaders - war criminals, with their warrant for their indefinite destruction."
As he mentions above, there has been a huge uptick in provocations and ‘behind the lines’ guerilla attacks in just the past week or two alone. At least two Russian railways were sabotaged, trains derailing as well as now two separate oil depot facilities hit, one in Crimea, the other in Krasnodar nearby. Other drone strikes occurred, including several attempts on Sevastopol, both from sea and air. And even other attempted drone attacks near Moscow, before the Kremlin one.
This all savors of the final, terminal phase before some type of major campaign, designed to create chaos and confusion among the Russian ranks. And like clockwork, on the heels of the Kremlin strike, the AFU launched another large probing action in the Orekhov-Zaporozhye direction. Reportedly, they were driven back by fierce Russian defense with at least 30 KIA and several armored vehicle losses.
Now, troubling news is beginning to brew that they’re once again preparing a provocation aimed at Pridnestrovia, aka Transnistria. A train of armored vehicles was spotted headed in that direction and new rumors abound about a large build up aimed at taking over Tiraspol.
🇺🇦The Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed thousands of soldiers to the Odessa region to prepare a provocation against Transnistria
The Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed thousands of soldiers to the Odessa region to prepare a provocation against the Pridnestrovian Republic of Moldavia (PMR).
According to RT, from the beginning of March, on the territory of the Dachnoe, Kamenka and Razdelnaya settlements, local authorities began to transfer hangars for storing agricultural products to the Ukrainian army to accommodate personnel and equipment.
RT writes that nearly 4,000 military personnel moved to these settlements in April, settled in these hangars and moved every two or three days.
According to the TV channel, in the period from May 9 to 15, a group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to reach Tiraspol to start an armed provocation there to distract the Russian army, and the second group will try to seize ammunition, warehouses in the village of Kolbasna, Transnistria.
There is certainly a chance of something big happening around May 9th, not least of which reason being the Russian parade, but that rumors have swirled that both Russia has intended to capture Bakhmut by then, and that Ukraine is intent on ruining Russia’s historic celebration day in any way possible, including launching their offensive or some other major provocation, including strikes on the parade itself.
As usual, what we are seeing is hysteric, insecure need of the Ukrainian leadership to make itself look active and successful to take attention away not only from their major failures in Bakhmut, but from the running hour-glass on the worldwide expectations of some major offensive from them, which are already growing long in the tooth.
We are likely to see a huge increase in psychological actions for two potential cross purposes. The first and most obvious is, if they actually do plan to launch an offensive, it will come on the heels of this off-balancing campaign to sow as much directional confusion as possible. But conversely, these actions could also be a huge cover for the fact that Ukraine has nothing to launch an offensive with, and is in fact ‘stalling’ for time by simply stringing a long a series of ineffectual and ultimately futile attacks which have no consequential merit apart from a minor psychological factor.
They may very well have planned an offensive but a series of massive recent strikes by the Russian aerospace forces have destroyed astounding amounts of stored up and consolidated ammunition. There’s a chance that their offensive has been neutered long before growing the legs to crawl and now they’re left with nothing but desperate face-saving tactics of little psychological jabs.
But getting back to Russia’s reaction: is it possible Russia will in fact react, in perhaps even a disproportionate fashion? It’s possible: after all, just look at ex-President Medvedev’s statement today: he called for the outright elimination of Zelensky. With that said though, Medvedev has been a bit of a windbag in recent times, and his statements certainly are not to be taken as gospel or representative of Kremlin policy. My theory is that, like the theatrically flowering Prigozhin, both of these guys are grandstanding for the possibility of 2024 presidential elections, provided that Putin calls it quits and doesn’t seek re-election—which is always possible, given that he’s stated before that he doesn’t want to do it for much longer.
Either way, the answer to the question lies in how exactly the Kremlin ends up cataloguing this event. The big question is, will it be viewed as tantamount to an assassination attempt on the president of Russia, as many outlets are characterizing it? If so, then clearly it would call for some major type of Russian response. But if they are simply to ‘brush it off’ as a minor drone inconvenience that happened to land on the Kremlin roof, then I suppose not much will be done. All we know that is for now, there are reports of huge explosions all over Ukraine. Every region is tonight being hit with what so far appears to be a mass Geran-2 drone attack, from Odessa, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, and even Kiev.
Personally, I’m still leaning towards Ukraine continuing to play games and delay at least until June if not later, while trying to score fencing ‘touches’ and asymmetrical provocations, simply because I remain skeptical of their ability to carry out an organized offensive, particularly a professional multi-pronged one.
But of particular interest will be the period directly after Bakhmut’s fall. Prigozhin has claimed the AFU will launch their big offensive right when Bakhmut falls, and its fall could likely coincide with the aforementioned dates; although, it should be said, today was a report that they’ve launched a ‘counter-attack’ on Bakhmut which—depending on its size and strength—could delay its capture, though it could just be a fake smokescreen designed to actually help retreat some of their last-remaining elite units, as one of the earlier reports above implied.
We’ll wait and see what happens, but the next few weeks promise to be a wild ride, with the next week-long period ending in May 9 in particular being one of critical importance to keep an eye on, as events could unfold rapidly.
If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: Tip Jar