Difficult to say for sure because some believe 'peak oil' is a myth and Russia continues to discover massive new oil fields in the untapped Arctic, which is why you keep hearing about all the ice-breaker fleets an Arctic wars in recent years, as there are massive untapped potentials there
very true. All the major river basins are associated with rich oil and gas deposits and 4 of the ten largest rivers of the world cross the Siberian tundra, and remain largely untapped to this day - Even the Barents Sea is very oil rich in Russian waters, largely untapped, too.
Great analysis. A lot of useful information. I sent this to Ron DeSantis. He made the “Russia gas station” the other day. He has shown a willingness to alter his position on things after being shown the truth. He certainly did on Covid. Maybe he’ll see it. I’ll certainly keep trying. Thanks again.
I can tell you from reading investor websites that most retail American investors absolutely 100% believe all the statistics that come out of the US government. I would say 80% of them believe them without any doubts, which is sad.
I'm not sure how much the large institutional investors really believe them. I am curious to know that. I suspect some of them already have their own internal figures for inflation and unemployment, but they would never say that publicly.
It is irrelevant whether they believe they are true or not, they, correctly believe that the market will respond to the stats and that is how they make money. Its the general acceptance that they believe.
What the people without money believe is also irrelevant to the west's decision makers (hint - not the politicos).
Great analysis. I really like Electricity Production as a proxy of a country's true output. Never thought of it like that but really makes sense; and if I look at it as a kW/population then Japan and Russia are pretty similar - NOT expected at all.
Regarding the currency wars, we do hear a lot about a BRICS currency and all that; but what is holding that back (and will for the forseeable future) is that China still has capital controls and the Yuan is not a freely traded currency. Until it is, this is not a realistic alternative. Of course, the Chinese have shown recently that they are perfectly capable of changing on a dime, so lets see.
On economic/military output - I am starting to understand the western strategy to defeat Russia. They seem to believe that Ukraine can fight Russia to a kind of stalemate on the ground, and that over the course of 2+ years western industrial output will eventually overwhelm them. Cold War Redux. In this sense, the strategy of attrition vs territory has an obvious weakness.
Yes, kW/Capita is a very interesting metric, and the real kicker is that Russia and Japan use few "renewables" i.e that per capita is 24/7, whereas Germany and California, to pick 2, have very high "renewable" penetration, so THEIR per capita is not 24/7, and not industrially useful in the long term...
You are misreading the data. It isn't KW but KWh so your assumption regarding intermittent renewables isn't valid. And if you think electricity from hydro, wind and solar isn't industrially useful then you have no experience of industry or power systems. It's a very interesting sector, I recommend it.
Hydro can be used "on demand" (as long as there's hydraulic head available).
Wind and Solar are ephemeral, and therefore industrially useless (there are exceptions, but they just prove the rule).
Industry has spoken, by leaving the lands of high renewables (not coincidentally also places of high electricity cost) and moving to where power is both low cost, and 24/7.
"Industry has spoken, by leaving the lands of high renewables"
China produces well over half the manufactured good on the planet. It also rolls out over half the worlds renewable power generation.
Wikipedia:
"In 2023, China's total installed electric generation capacity was 2.92 TW, of which 1.26 TW renewable, including 376 GW from wind power and 425 GW from solar power."
That's a lot of wind and solar. Perhaps you know something the Chinese power systems engineers don't?
TWh actually. But you're mixing arguments. I gave you the installed capacity as you were suggesting the energy from intermittent renewables was somehow not suited to industry. Here is the generation as per Wikipedia.
"Power generated from renewable energy has also been continuously increasing in the country, with national electricity generation from renewable energy reaching 594.7 TWh in Q1 2023, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, including 342.2 TWh of wind and solar power, up 27.8% year-on-year."
Like I said originally, it's a very interesting topic and well worth some research. China is a great example. Check out how much HVDC transmission they are rolling out also. They are investing heavily in their future.
"The rapid growth of renewables, supported by rising nuclear generation, is set to displace global coal-fired generation, which is forecast to fall by an average of 1.7% annually through 2026. This follows a 1.6% increase in coal-fired output in 2023 amid droughts in India and China that reduced hydropower output and increased coal-fired generation, more than offsetting strong declines in coal-fired generation in the United States and the European Union. The major factor that will determine the global outlook is evolving trends in China, where more than half of world’s coal-fired generation takes place. Coal-fired generation in China is currently on course to experience a slow structural decline, driven by the strong expansion of renewables and growing nuclear generation, as well as moderating economic growth. Despite the commissioning of new plants to boost the security of energy supply, the utilisation rate of Chinese coal-fired plants is expected to continue to fall as they are used more flexibly to complement renewables. Nevertheless, coal-fired generation in China will be influenced significantly by the pace of the economy’s rebalancing, hydropower trends, and bottlenecks in integrating renewables into the country’s power system."
Not a chance in Hades, that "Western" industrial power can catch up. The talented people are gone, and many, like me, in disgust with the backstabbing leadership of Western Countries.
And most Western Countries are allergic to physical (and cognitive) work.
Fighting Russia, and now China, is a Fool's Errand. The horse, the barn and the property were lost at least 20-30 years ago.
Like the euro, it would be a mistake to have a BRICS currency. Good theory, poor in practice. Let countries do their own currency agreements with others, separately or in groups. Would hate to see this end up like the losing US dollar, where some countries feel they are more equal than others. The more multi-polarism, the better.
Lots to absorb, as usual, but happy someone is translating the currency and financial mess, not that I understand it, but it is a start. At least I trust the author to tell it straight.
Anyone know anything about the blogger that got blown up in St. Petersburg?
Don't necessarily believe that Ukraine was behind this attack - the blogger had recently been extremely critical of Putin's conduct of the war, and as we know, criticism is now criminalised in Russia.
If you think "They wouldn't do that, would they?" you need to first watch this excellent vid, which answers the question very much in the affirmative.
Incidentally, it seems that Litvinenko was poisoned because he had both exposed this KGB activity in blowing up apartment buildings in Moscow and elsewhere; but also because he was asking why, when P went walkabout on Red Square, he paused in front of an unknown four year old child, lifted his shirt, and kissed his belly.
All is not as RT would probably want you to believe.
I didn't read it on RT. Americans are doing the same, sending a meme writer to prison. That new bill passes and it is yet another nail in the coffin, probably one of the last. Americans have taken out plenty of people, ask Hillary.
I have no idea who Tatarxyz is, but I do think it is pretty darn rotten to blow up someone in a public cafe where potential innocents are eating/drinking. Mark your target and do it elsewhere w/some other method. But that's just me. I still think about the young girl that got blown up for driving her dad's car, can't remember her name.
I saw her being interviewed on RT - a lovely girl, and full of care and compassion. She was in Donbass helping the victims of the Kiev regime.
The reference I made to the victim in this cafe bombing was mentioned on RT as having been recently very critical of P - but I think the piece was then deleted, so as to preserve the "Kiev did it" narrative which is being peddled at the moment.
As I said, watch the vid I linked to - your impression of P and the KGB / FSB will be permanently damaged if you do.
Be careful, Tim Webb might be a CIA useful idiot that is using the CIA playbook to hijack both sides to control the narrative and direct the anger towards Russian government and create internal division. The last thing he does is give you a so called "balanced view"
Alternatively, he might just be directing your attention to a film made 20 years ago which shows convincingly that the FSB have in the past murdered hundreds of Russian people in fake bombings inside Russia.
Generally speaking, I am hugely pro-Russia, so if I draw these things to your attention, it is not through an anti-Russia bias - quite the reverse.
If you doubt me, go and look at my comments over the last year or more on RT, under my own name, as given here too.
You might be inclined to then ask who murdered Litvinenko in London with polonium, because he was the part-author of the book which both exposed this nefarious and murderous behaviour, and also fingered Putin as being involved in what can only be described as pedophilic behaviour.
So keep your pig ignorant "analysis" to yourself until you can properly account for all these facts.
Blowing somebody up triggers major emotional reactions against whomsoever the RF wants to trigger them.
They did the same with the Moscow apartment building bombs back 20 years ago, when they needed to finish the Chechens off whilst keeping popular support.
But as soon as the FSB was caught red handed doing it, the bombs stopped, and they went back to your anodyne way of doing things.
This technique is called a "false argument" - the proof of one unproven statement by another unproven statement. A typical unscrupulous way to conduct a discussion.
your view has 2 major flaws in it. a) It doesn't pass the cui bono test - Russia / Putin have little to gain by this horrific murder and b) using 'evidence' from 20 years ago, when Russia was still struggling to get out of the clutches of western backed oligarchs and general chaos all around, is not a strong support for similar action to be carried out today.
You have no idea about the discussions that go on inside the Kremlin, and so cannot second-guess why they do or don't do certain things.
I have already suggested what they might gain from obliterating this person, thus overturning your "cui bono" defence.
Russia wasn't struggling to get free from the clutches of the jewish oligarchs; it was struggling to find some way to unite the nation against the Chechens; and this is how it was done - by murdering hundreds of Russians.
That's not how a national leader acts, if he isn't a psychopath.
Putin's psychopathy was in evidence when he not only authorized that criminal and psychotic act, but also authorized the murder of Litvinenko, partly because he exposed Putin and Patrushev's terrorist bombing campaign against Russians, but also because he asked questions about why a national leader lifts up an unknown four-year-old's shirt in public, kneels down, and kisses his belly.
And please don't deny that.
The YT video is definitive.
And what were his reasons for engaging in thinly-disguised paedophilia?
"The boy was cute and confident."
No man who is a pedo can be assumed to be anything other than a reprobate, and in fact one can assume that he will only get worse with time; thus overturning your second learned opinion.
BTW, you too "have no idea about the discussions that go on inside the Kremlin."
Cui bono? We disagree on this. In fact, it can be argued if he was an asset or a nuisance, since he also helped the soldiers on the front by getting hundreds of drones to them. Moreover, if I am in the Kremlin, given the huge issues they're dealing with - the war on the ground, economic war, potential nuclear war, etc ... getting rid of a pesky blogger would be a petty issue, not worth the headline it creates.
In my country and my generation (I am of Putin's age, NOT from a western christian background), kissing a child's belly is a playful act, not an act of pedophilia. It says more about the mindset of the commentator who thinks this is pedophilia. IMO, you are completely getting carried away by this misunderstaning of Putin's action with the child. If you drop that mis-conception, the image you have built up of Putin as a pedophile breaks down completely.
To summarize your position: Because Putin kissed a child's belly in public you jump to the conclusion that he is a pedophile, and therefore a psychopath and a reprobate. But what if your first conclusion is wrong? In the end, it's only your opinion. Same as what I write is my opinion. We know nothing more, so building elaborate castles upon just our own conception of what goes on in other people's minds is an exercise in futility. Let's just focus on events and draw conclusions from that.
What I look at is basically, the facts; which are that P&P have a track record of murder perpetrated against Russians, whether en masse, or against individuals.
You, because of your advanced age, will therefore have heard the saying, "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
These two men have been in power for 20+ years now; the effective Tsars of Russia.
Now I have absolute certainty that, no matter where you live, it is unacceptable to do what P did to an unknown toddler.
You deviously suggest that this is normal behaviour where you come from; but you know as well as I do that it is not, and that it would only EVER be carried out within the family circle.
If you are not from "a western Christian background" then the incidence of paedophilia amongst moslem men is very high, as it is forbidden for them to ever engage with women sexually until after marriage, and marriage is difficult, because of the dowry system.
Afghan men, for example, make much of dressing small boys up as girls, making them dance, and then taking them out the back to rape them.
My "mindset" therefore, is based upon an understanding of the male sexual urge, which seems to have passed you by.
"If I am wrong" then of course the entire scenario breaks down; but the evidence, rather than your "opinion," suggests that I am right.
So this is not an "elaborate sandcastle," but what Holmes would have said, ie "When you have discarded the impossible, then whatever is left, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."
This is how juries come to their conclusions; ie by weighing the evidence, which shows that P is a murderous thug, and then looking at his other behaviour in this light, and passing judgement.
In another comment below I have addressed the events of what you call Putin murdering his own people. Nothing more to add.
Before proceeding, let me confuse you a bit more. I am neither christian, nor muslim, nor jewish. It's funny to see all the stereotypes you hang your arguments on.
Re your fixation on pedophilia. I laughed aloud when I read that you "have absolute certainty that what Putin did to the toddler is unacceptable." I absolutely declare that it is NOT pedophilia in my culture. You would be shocked, speechless, if I told you that in my culture teenagers and young men who are close friends openly touch each other eg hands over each other's shoulders; men share beds (fully clothed) usually because of lack of space, and this DOES NOT mean they are homosexuals. It is laughable to suggest they are homosexuals because most times these young men are talking about girls! In Arab and Orthodox Christian cultures it is common for men to hug and kiss each other when they first meet. It is the western european christian culture that looks upon these as sexual .... to me that is a sick mind. Christianity implants these ideas in your mind. So please pipe down with your pedophilia rants. It is laughable.
Your examples of moslem men and Afghan men simply shows that islam is a culture even more sick than christianity.
You most certainly are wrong in your assumption of pedophilia of Putin. For your own clarity of judgements better rid yourself of that assumption.
I have nothing more to say and will not reply to any further comments.
Well, Obama has been our President, shadow president, and deep state President for 14 years. So, he’s almost up there with Putin. Difference is: Putin is a brilliant analyst and Obama is a word salad expert. Absolute power does corrupt and your dig at the responder’s age shows you are doing the footwork for the diseased minds of my once great country. CIA? Bellingcat? Soros’ funded NGO? This comment is a reply to “Timmy Webb.”
one more thing ... anybody who is in politics has to be a psychopath to some degree. One cannot get power over millions of other people without being at least a little evil. The evil psychopathy of western leaders is on a much higher scale that what is visible from Russia's actions. American leaders have caused millions of unjustifiable, horrific deaths from Vietnam to the Middle East and now Ukraine. All for the sake of extending / protecting their own power. Current German leaders are in the process of sacrificing their country to the greed of the Americans. Leaders of other countries have also done evil acts, but one can see that they mostly acted in the overall interests of their country as a whole.
People can change or get replaced in 20 years. ALso the khazarian dark state ran Soviet Union, so 20 years ago they would still be strong there. After all, these are the same people going easy on Ukraine nazis.
Sometimes, people who are in power are there because of a love for their people, a recognition of what is being done to them, and by whom, and a determination to right wrongs and extricate these people from the morass they have been led into.
Now this is opening a can of worms, but I will suggest to you that Hitler fell into this latter category.
Never did he deliberately murder his own people, as Putin has done; and nor did he engage in paedophilic activities, as Putin does.
The two men are chalk and cheese, and thus why P so denigrates Hitler, as his jewish soul requires him to do.
I agree that sometimes people in power do really try to right wrongs done to their people, their country. I also agree that Hitler is in this category. If one studies Putin's career, all his speeches going back to when he first rose to prominence in the late 1990s, I submit that Putin also falls in the category of genuine nationalists who wants to correct the wrongs done to his country and to his people; to lift his country up from the morass it had sunk into under Yeltsin.
You are historically inaccurate when you say Hitler did not murder his own people, and I do not accept that Putin deliberately murdered his own people. The Chechen war period was a dangerous one for Russia, and if we agree that Putin's aim was and always has been to raise Russia to it's rightful place in the world, he would do whatever was necessary for that aim. If some people died, that would be considered collateral damage. Putin also probably had some oligarchs / dissidents / spies killed, because they were against what was good for Russia. Hitler also murdered his political enemies and those he considered anti-Germany. Including many Jews who were also Germans.
Re your fixation on pedophilia, see my other reply.
BTW, your last line refers to Putin as a Jew. I have never heard that before.
He was a DPR volunteer militia fighter, who came home in 2019 or so. Then as 2022 happened, he went online to act as a keyboard warrior of sorts, displaying the truth of the civilian atrocities of kiev. Since he was also a journalist.
He had around 550k followers on telegram, which is pretty big for Russia.
The idea that Vladimir would kill one of their strongest pro SMO journalists is.... not very flattering to Vladimir's mental state.
Both the DUgina assassinations and the Tatarsky bomb that killed/wounded 30 others, are traced back to the SBU/nato terrorist sponsors. OF course it could be other people but I doubt the CIA has enough MK ultra assets there to do anything.
You write what we already know; however, yet again, you refuse to acknowledge Tatarsky's severe criticism of the Putin regime, which is what got him killed, so as to send a message to others who might be inclined to criticize it.
Every pro dpr volunteer is as critical of vladimir s softness as tatarsky. Your so called severe criricism is often that vladimir did not invade poland yet.
I guess to me the question is "how financialized is the Russian economy compared to the US and its lapdogs in the Oceania, Canada and incresingly Western EU region?" I mean we're well on our way to "you'll own nothing and be happy" which some mis-interpret as a coming age of "communism" but which really represents the rentier model of EVERYTHING. You will RENT from us, SERFS, and you'll be fucking happy about it!
It's a joke how little real manufacturing capability we have now compared to the so-called "developing" nations or "gas stations with nukes" that our elites like to tell us about.
Good analysis. And the only answer that matters is: "How well the average Russian (or Chinese or Vietnamese etc.) citizen will do over the next 10 years compared to the West in terms of real world purchasing power and quality/length of life." We're trending downwards and that's *without* the massive sanctions (strikethrough - THEFT) that the US and our cronies are enforcing on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc.
I like the new "Garden of Knowledge" lead too, lol. It's an apt descriptor.
One adverse effect to the Ruble being "weak", is that the purchasing power of foreign nations that buy Russian goods is distortedly high, because the Ruble is artificially kept down.
So prices in Russia are high, because other countries can afford to pay more in Roubles and price out Russian consumers, because their currency is manipulated.
As I understand it, mainly manifests in food prices, because with oil and gas, Rosneft and Gazprom are mostly state owned, and they don't jack up the price for domestic consumers, but that's not the case with food.
New Zealand is by far the largest exporter of milk in the world. Yet the price of a gallon of milk is more in New Zealand than the US. If they have one thing in large supply in NZ, it's milk.
It's kind of counter-intuitive. But in a globalized world, that's how things work.
As you say, some countries have different prices for domestic vs export commodities. That was one reason for the protests in Kazakhstan, when they raised the price of some fuel (propane, I think it was). The export price was much higher than the domestic price and they tried to close that gap a little bit.
However, Russia didn't "win" Sevastopol in 2014. At the end of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed an agreement to let Russia use Sevastopol as a naval base. In fact, the "little green men" of 2014 in Crimea were already there on the scene - stationed at the Russian base in Sevastopol.
The only thing that happened (w/r/t Sevastopol) is that it went from being a naval base LEASED to Russia (sort of how Guantanamo is leased to the USA) in 2014 to one owned by Russia. In other words, except for the paperwork (and a few Ukrainian security guards), nothing changed.
Yes, I do understand it. My question was rather - if Crimea is now in Russian Federation, the ‘lease’ becomes irrelevant. Although I read somewhere that it was being recently discussed by Ukrainian government, which seemed to me bizarre.
Russia leased Sevastopol Treaty for 30 years renewable lease back in 1990s .. but Svoboda & Right Sector (they get only 5% of the national vote but 40%+ in rural West Ukraine) who led the Maidan coup had vowed in their campaign platforms to kick Russia out of Crimea regardless of signed Treaty lease as well as outlaw Russian language
Before 2014 for years, note that the majority 70%-80%+ of industralized East UKraine Donbass (which used to be part of Russia until Lenin redrew the borders in 1920s) elected President Yanukovich for 10+ years in had already agreed in Feburary 2014
to step down
and sign the EU Agreement and hold new elections after March but Maidan leaders Svoboda/Right Sector
still stormed the gov buildings with radio intercepts saying it was their only chance to get into the government
--and they controlled the opposition hotel where snipers shot BOTH police and protestors to get them to fight each other since both sides had guns (protestors were also throwuing Molotov cocktails petrol bombs against police , setting some on fire as well as armored personnel carriers)
--the lease Treaty allowed Russia to station up to 25,000 troops in Crimea (similar to how Germany treaty allows US to station troops in Germany also
Yes. And Russia was allowed to have 25,000 military personnel in Crimea, a number they never exceeded (by a long shot) during the so-called "invasion".
Thank you! An excellent overview of the topic I DO struggle to understand. I have to admit - this is my favourite question: “oil and gas now likewise make up more than 30% of U.S. total exports. Who’s the gas station now?”
Seems much of the West's economic figures are massaged these days, the changing the algorithms for inflation being a prime example. Countries like Australia are cutting their prime source of trade income with China to appease US interests and waste billions on US arms instead. The GDP is reported as healthy even though manufacturing is disappearing and the only driver of wealth are housing and stock Ponzi schemes. It's all a house of cards.
Hence interesting to see the true state of Russia, as economics is the second front of the war, many would argue the real front. It also reveals that our true rulers have a lot more at stake here than just a regional conflict.
even inflation in most countries isnt counted how it was say in the 80's. And i am fairly sure i remember a headline saying the UK was counting estimated drug and hooker sales in its gdp a few years back!
Thank you very much for the usually brilliant analysis ! We are very spoiled by you, that as if we were sitting in a huge office as the president of an imaginary global company, we would receive a private, expensive analysis from you ! What I really regret is that your opinion does not reach the thinking population of the planet, so that they can see the facts, how the MSM lies to our eyes !
As an Italian, I was primed about this during the European "Debt" Crisis, when Anglo-German banks frame PIGS foreign debts as a problem of public debt.
I knew Russia would maul western economic the moment I saw its trade balance.
I add a point: the "greatest sanction package in history" i.e. the steal of Russian foreign reserves was proposed and orchestrated by Mario Draghi, the ghoul that destroyed Italy in 1992 and Greece in 2014 (infancy deaths doubled thanks to his austerity package to Athens). The steal is the leading cause of the actual dedollarization. Martyanov is right: the smartest Western is dumber than the dumbest mobik.
Great digestible summary, again, I don't know how you get your head around so many topics. As an Australian, land rich in resources, I cringe at how we have squandered so many opportunities to be strong and independent. Is autarky ever a bad thing for a country? Or is it only bad for the multinational pirates that profit from arbitrage and substitution?
Am aussie too, and don't like this direction we're headed. Both parties are the same. US and AU intel are deepened and our media tout the same bullshit position the ones in US does.
Difficult to say for sure because some believe 'peak oil' is a myth and Russia continues to discover massive new oil fields in the untapped Arctic, which is why you keep hearing about all the ice-breaker fleets an Arctic wars in recent years, as there are massive untapped potentials there
very true. All the major river basins are associated with rich oil and gas deposits and 4 of the ten largest rivers of the world cross the Siberian tundra, and remain largely untapped to this day - Even the Barents Sea is very oil rich in Russian waters, largely untapped, too.
Great analysis. A lot of useful information. I sent this to Ron DeSantis. He made the “Russia gas station” the other day. He has shown a willingness to alter his position on things after being shown the truth. He certainly did on Covid. Maybe he’ll see it. I’ll certainly keep trying. Thanks again.
I can tell you from reading investor websites that most retail American investors absolutely 100% believe all the statistics that come out of the US government. I would say 80% of them believe them without any doubts, which is sad.
I'm not sure how much the large institutional investors really believe them. I am curious to know that. I suspect some of them already have their own internal figures for inflation and unemployment, but they would never say that publicly.
It is irrelevant whether they believe they are true or not, they, correctly believe that the market will respond to the stats and that is how they make money. Its the general acceptance that they believe.
What the people without money believe is also irrelevant to the west's decision makers (hint - not the politicos).
Great analysis. I really like Electricity Production as a proxy of a country's true output. Never thought of it like that but really makes sense; and if I look at it as a kW/population then Japan and Russia are pretty similar - NOT expected at all.
Regarding the currency wars, we do hear a lot about a BRICS currency and all that; but what is holding that back (and will for the forseeable future) is that China still has capital controls and the Yuan is not a freely traded currency. Until it is, this is not a realistic alternative. Of course, the Chinese have shown recently that they are perfectly capable of changing on a dime, so lets see.
On economic/military output - I am starting to understand the western strategy to defeat Russia. They seem to believe that Ukraine can fight Russia to a kind of stalemate on the ground, and that over the course of 2+ years western industrial output will eventually overwhelm them. Cold War Redux. In this sense, the strategy of attrition vs territory has an obvious weakness.
Yes, kW/Capita is a very interesting metric, and the real kicker is that Russia and Japan use few "renewables" i.e that per capita is 24/7, whereas Germany and California, to pick 2, have very high "renewable" penetration, so THEIR per capita is not 24/7, and not industrially useful in the long term...
You are misreading the data. It isn't KW but KWh so your assumption regarding intermittent renewables isn't valid. And if you think electricity from hydro, wind and solar isn't industrially useful then you have no experience of industry or power systems. It's a very interesting sector, I recommend it.
Hydro can be used "on demand" (as long as there's hydraulic head available).
Wind and Solar are ephemeral, and therefore industrially useless (there are exceptions, but they just prove the rule).
Industry has spoken, by leaving the lands of high renewables (not coincidentally also places of high electricity cost) and moving to where power is both low cost, and 24/7.
"Industry has spoken, by leaving the lands of high renewables"
China produces well over half the manufactured good on the planet. It also rolls out over half the worlds renewable power generation.
Wikipedia:
"In 2023, China's total installed electric generation capacity was 2.92 TW, of which 1.26 TW renewable, including 376 GW from wind power and 425 GW from solar power."
That's a lot of wind and solar. Perhaps you know something the Chinese power systems engineers don't?
Now adjust those numbers using Capacity Factor, like REAL power systems engineers do....
Hint: YOU lambasted me for using kW instead of kWhr.
YOUR turn...
Use GWhr/yr instead of GW.
You might learn something
TWh actually. But you're mixing arguments. I gave you the installed capacity as you were suggesting the energy from intermittent renewables was somehow not suited to industry. Here is the generation as per Wikipedia.
"Power generated from renewable energy has also been continuously increasing in the country, with national electricity generation from renewable energy reaching 594.7 TWh in Q1 2023, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, including 342.2 TWh of wind and solar power, up 27.8% year-on-year."
Like I said originally, it's a very interesting topic and well worth some research. China is a great example. Check out how much HVDC transmission they are rolling out also. They are investing heavily in their future.
The IEA Electricity 2024 report:
"The rapid growth of renewables, supported by rising nuclear generation, is set to displace global coal-fired generation, which is forecast to fall by an average of 1.7% annually through 2026. This follows a 1.6% increase in coal-fired output in 2023 amid droughts in India and China that reduced hydropower output and increased coal-fired generation, more than offsetting strong declines in coal-fired generation in the United States and the European Union. The major factor that will determine the global outlook is evolving trends in China, where more than half of world’s coal-fired generation takes place. Coal-fired generation in China is currently on course to experience a slow structural decline, driven by the strong expansion of renewables and growing nuclear generation, as well as moderating economic growth. Despite the commissioning of new plants to boost the security of energy supply, the utilisation rate of Chinese coal-fired plants is expected to continue to fall as they are used more flexibly to complement renewables. Nevertheless, coal-fired generation in China will be influenced significantly by the pace of the economy’s rebalancing, hydropower trends, and bottlenecks in integrating renewables into the country’s power system."
Not a chance in Hades, that "Western" industrial power can catch up. The talented people are gone, and many, like me, in disgust with the backstabbing leadership of Western Countries.
And most Western Countries are allergic to physical (and cognitive) work.
Fighting Russia, and now China, is a Fool's Errand. The horse, the barn and the property were lost at least 20-30 years ago.
Exactly correct.
Like the euro, it would be a mistake to have a BRICS currency. Good theory, poor in practice. Let countries do their own currency agreements with others, separately or in groups. Would hate to see this end up like the losing US dollar, where some countries feel they are more equal than others. The more multi-polarism, the better.
Yes - reminds me of the chicken/meat eating levels in China which were used to radically reassess the economic strength of China some 25 years ago.
Lots to absorb, as usual, but happy someone is translating the currency and financial mess, not that I understand it, but it is a start. At least I trust the author to tell it straight.
Anyone know anything about the blogger that got blown up in St. Petersburg?
Don't necessarily believe that Ukraine was behind this attack - the blogger had recently been extremely critical of Putin's conduct of the war, and as we know, criticism is now criminalised in Russia.
If you think "They wouldn't do that, would they?" you need to first watch this excellent vid, which answers the question very much in the affirmative.
https://worldtruthvideos.website/watch/blowing-up-russia-terror-from-within_ReGpk6UhXkZPqUf.html
Incidentally, it seems that Litvinenko was poisoned because he had both exposed this KGB activity in blowing up apartment buildings in Moscow and elsewhere; but also because he was asking why, when P went walkabout on Red Square, he paused in front of an unknown four year old child, lifted his shirt, and kissed his belly.
All is not as RT would probably want you to believe.
I didn't read it on RT. Americans are doing the same, sending a meme writer to prison. That new bill passes and it is yet another nail in the coffin, probably one of the last. Americans have taken out plenty of people, ask Hillary.
I have no idea who Tatarxyz is, but I do think it is pretty darn rotten to blow up someone in a public cafe where potential innocents are eating/drinking. Mark your target and do it elsewhere w/some other method. But that's just me. I still think about the young girl that got blown up for driving her dad's car, can't remember her name.
Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander of that ilk.
I saw her being interviewed on RT - a lovely girl, and full of care and compassion. She was in Donbass helping the victims of the Kiev regime.
The reference I made to the victim in this cafe bombing was mentioned on RT as having been recently very critical of P - but I think the piece was then deleted, so as to preserve the "Kiev did it" narrative which is being peddled at the moment.
As I said, watch the vid I linked to - your impression of P and the KGB / FSB will be permanently damaged if you do.
That is the girl. Haven't watched the video yet.
Don't forget - it's essential if you are to get a properly balanced view of how states work.
lol, funny coming from you.
Be careful, Tim Webb might be a CIA useful idiot that is using the CIA playbook to hijack both sides to control the narrative and direct the anger towards Russian government and create internal division. The last thing he does is give you a so called "balanced view"
Alternatively, he might just be directing your attention to a film made 20 years ago which shows convincingly that the FSB have in the past murdered hundreds of Russian people in fake bombings inside Russia.
Generally speaking, I am hugely pro-Russia, so if I draw these things to your attention, it is not through an anti-Russia bias - quite the reverse.
If you doubt me, go and look at my comments over the last year or more on RT, under my own name, as given here too.
You might be inclined to then ask who murdered Litvinenko in London with polonium, because he was the part-author of the book which both exposed this nefarious and murderous behaviour, and also fingered Putin as being involved in what can only be described as pedophilic behaviour.
So keep your pig ignorant "analysis" to yourself until you can properly account for all these facts.
"that ilk" huh
Nice that Bellingcat/CIA is reading this substack AND comments, to boot!
Like Tim Webb is your real name. Lololololol.
You can find me on RT.
Moron.
Smells like right out of CIA playbook to hijack both sides to control the narrative.
Lots of Russian commentators criticize Putin's conduct of the war.
And?
Many do not blow up. Of course, the idea that the Russian government would blow up its critics rather than quietly arrest them is silly.
You are very naiive.
Blowing somebody up triggers major emotional reactions against whomsoever the RF wants to trigger them.
They did the same with the Moscow apartment building bombs back 20 years ago, when they needed to finish the Chechens off whilst keeping popular support.
But as soon as the FSB was caught red handed doing it, the bombs stopped, and they went back to your anodyne way of doing things.
Assumes a lot of facts not in evidence.
This technique is called a "false argument" - the proof of one unproven statement by another unproven statement. A typical unscrupulous way to conduct a discussion.
your view has 2 major flaws in it. a) It doesn't pass the cui bono test - Russia / Putin have little to gain by this horrific murder and b) using 'evidence' from 20 years ago, when Russia was still struggling to get out of the clutches of western backed oligarchs and general chaos all around, is not a strong support for similar action to be carried out today.
You have no idea about the discussions that go on inside the Kremlin, and so cannot second-guess why they do or don't do certain things.
I have already suggested what they might gain from obliterating this person, thus overturning your "cui bono" defence.
Russia wasn't struggling to get free from the clutches of the jewish oligarchs; it was struggling to find some way to unite the nation against the Chechens; and this is how it was done - by murdering hundreds of Russians.
That's not how a national leader acts, if he isn't a psychopath.
Putin's psychopathy was in evidence when he not only authorized that criminal and psychotic act, but also authorized the murder of Litvinenko, partly because he exposed Putin and Patrushev's terrorist bombing campaign against Russians, but also because he asked questions about why a national leader lifts up an unknown four-year-old's shirt in public, kneels down, and kisses his belly.
And please don't deny that.
The YT video is definitive.
And what were his reasons for engaging in thinly-disguised paedophilia?
"The boy was cute and confident."
No man who is a pedo can be assumed to be anything other than a reprobate, and in fact one can assume that he will only get worse with time; thus overturning your second learned opinion.
BTW, you too "have no idea about the discussions that go on inside the Kremlin."
Cui bono? We disagree on this. In fact, it can be argued if he was an asset or a nuisance, since he also helped the soldiers on the front by getting hundreds of drones to them. Moreover, if I am in the Kremlin, given the huge issues they're dealing with - the war on the ground, economic war, potential nuclear war, etc ... getting rid of a pesky blogger would be a petty issue, not worth the headline it creates.
In my country and my generation (I am of Putin's age, NOT from a western christian background), kissing a child's belly is a playful act, not an act of pedophilia. It says more about the mindset of the commentator who thinks this is pedophilia. IMO, you are completely getting carried away by this misunderstaning of Putin's action with the child. If you drop that mis-conception, the image you have built up of Putin as a pedophile breaks down completely.
To summarize your position: Because Putin kissed a child's belly in public you jump to the conclusion that he is a pedophile, and therefore a psychopath and a reprobate. But what if your first conclusion is wrong? In the end, it's only your opinion. Same as what I write is my opinion. We know nothing more, so building elaborate castles upon just our own conception of what goes on in other people's minds is an exercise in futility. Let's just focus on events and draw conclusions from that.
What I look at is basically, the facts; which are that P&P have a track record of murder perpetrated against Russians, whether en masse, or against individuals.
You, because of your advanced age, will therefore have heard the saying, "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
These two men have been in power for 20+ years now; the effective Tsars of Russia.
Now I have absolute certainty that, no matter where you live, it is unacceptable to do what P did to an unknown toddler.
You deviously suggest that this is normal behaviour where you come from; but you know as well as I do that it is not, and that it would only EVER be carried out within the family circle.
If you are not from "a western Christian background" then the incidence of paedophilia amongst moslem men is very high, as it is forbidden for them to ever engage with women sexually until after marriage, and marriage is difficult, because of the dowry system.
Afghan men, for example, make much of dressing small boys up as girls, making them dance, and then taking them out the back to rape them.
My "mindset" therefore, is based upon an understanding of the male sexual urge, which seems to have passed you by.
"If I am wrong" then of course the entire scenario breaks down; but the evidence, rather than your "opinion," suggests that I am right.
So this is not an "elaborate sandcastle," but what Holmes would have said, ie "When you have discarded the impossible, then whatever is left, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."
This is how juries come to their conclusions; ie by weighing the evidence, which shows that P is a murderous thug, and then looking at his other behaviour in this light, and passing judgement.
In another comment below I have addressed the events of what you call Putin murdering his own people. Nothing more to add.
Before proceeding, let me confuse you a bit more. I am neither christian, nor muslim, nor jewish. It's funny to see all the stereotypes you hang your arguments on.
Re your fixation on pedophilia. I laughed aloud when I read that you "have absolute certainty that what Putin did to the toddler is unacceptable." I absolutely declare that it is NOT pedophilia in my culture. You would be shocked, speechless, if I told you that in my culture teenagers and young men who are close friends openly touch each other eg hands over each other's shoulders; men share beds (fully clothed) usually because of lack of space, and this DOES NOT mean they are homosexuals. It is laughable to suggest they are homosexuals because most times these young men are talking about girls! In Arab and Orthodox Christian cultures it is common for men to hug and kiss each other when they first meet. It is the western european christian culture that looks upon these as sexual .... to me that is a sick mind. Christianity implants these ideas in your mind. So please pipe down with your pedophilia rants. It is laughable.
Your examples of moslem men and Afghan men simply shows that islam is a culture even more sick than christianity.
You most certainly are wrong in your assumption of pedophilia of Putin. For your own clarity of judgements better rid yourself of that assumption.
I have nothing more to say and will not reply to any further comments.
Well, Obama has been our President, shadow president, and deep state President for 14 years. So, he’s almost up there with Putin. Difference is: Putin is a brilliant analyst and Obama is a word salad expert. Absolute power does corrupt and your dig at the responder’s age shows you are doing the footwork for the diseased minds of my once great country. CIA? Bellingcat? Soros’ funded NGO? This comment is a reply to “Timmy Webb.”
one more thing ... anybody who is in politics has to be a psychopath to some degree. One cannot get power over millions of other people without being at least a little evil. The evil psychopathy of western leaders is on a much higher scale that what is visible from Russia's actions. American leaders have caused millions of unjustifiable, horrific deaths from Vietnam to the Middle East and now Ukraine. All for the sake of extending / protecting their own power. Current German leaders are in the process of sacrificing their country to the greed of the Americans. Leaders of other countries have also done evil acts, but one can see that they mostly acted in the overall interests of their country as a whole.
Vladimir beforei s not the Vladimir now.
People can change or get replaced in 20 years. ALso the khazarian dark state ran Soviet Union, so 20 years ago they would still be strong there. After all, these are the same people going easy on Ukraine nazis.
You glibly spread cliches.
Sometimes, people who are in power are there because of a love for their people, a recognition of what is being done to them, and by whom, and a determination to right wrongs and extricate these people from the morass they have been led into.
Now this is opening a can of worms, but I will suggest to you that Hitler fell into this latter category.
Never did he deliberately murder his own people, as Putin has done; and nor did he engage in paedophilic activities, as Putin does.
The two men are chalk and cheese, and thus why P so denigrates Hitler, as his jewish soul requires him to do.
I agree that sometimes people in power do really try to right wrongs done to their people, their country. I also agree that Hitler is in this category. If one studies Putin's career, all his speeches going back to when he first rose to prominence in the late 1990s, I submit that Putin also falls in the category of genuine nationalists who wants to correct the wrongs done to his country and to his people; to lift his country up from the morass it had sunk into under Yeltsin.
You are historically inaccurate when you say Hitler did not murder his own people, and I do not accept that Putin deliberately murdered his own people. The Chechen war period was a dangerous one for Russia, and if we agree that Putin's aim was and always has been to raise Russia to it's rightful place in the world, he would do whatever was necessary for that aim. If some people died, that would be considered collateral damage. Putin also probably had some oligarchs / dissidents / spies killed, because they were against what was good for Russia. Hitler also murdered his political enemies and those he considered anti-Germany. Including many Jews who were also Germans.
Re your fixation on pedophilia, see my other reply.
BTW, your last line refers to Putin as a Jew. I have never heard that before.
So 20 years ago, DOnald was seen hob knobbing with Epstein and calling him a good guy.
That somehow means Donald was responsible for J6 reichstag fire and support dark state pedos?
Just because people make videos, doesn't mean you have absolute evidence.
"as we know, criticism is now criminalised in Russia."
You assume that is true but there is little to no evidence of that.
I'm sorry, but there is no discernable logic in your argument.
By J6, Trump was no longer in power in the US.
And as he was a frequent flyer on Epstein's jet, then we can only guess at why he went to Epstein's island.
Perhaps to top up his suntan.
This is to show you that others see no discernible logick in your argument.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpCRRWWQY3o It's a round table analysis of Tatarsky and his connections/background.
He was a DPR volunteer militia fighter, who came home in 2019 or so. Then as 2022 happened, he went online to act as a keyboard warrior of sorts, displaying the truth of the civilian atrocities of kiev. Since he was also a journalist.
He had around 550k followers on telegram, which is pretty big for Russia.
The idea that Vladimir would kill one of their strongest pro SMO journalists is.... not very flattering to Vladimir's mental state.
Both the DUgina assassinations and the Tatarsky bomb that killed/wounded 30 others, are traced back to the SBU/nato terrorist sponsors. OF course it could be other people but I doubt the CIA has enough MK ultra assets there to do anything.
You write what we already know; however, yet again, you refuse to acknowledge Tatarsky's severe criticism of the Putin regime, which is what got him killed, so as to send a message to others who might be inclined to criticize it.
You write your bias as fact. They are not.
Every pro dpr volunteer is as critical of vladimir s softness as tatarsky. Your so called severe criricism is often that vladimir did not invade poland yet.
Tatarsky had 1/2 million subscribers.
These other people do not.
Which is a good enoigh reason for you but the federation is not you
Your remarks are becoming increasingly meaningless.
I guess to me the question is "how financialized is the Russian economy compared to the US and its lapdogs in the Oceania, Canada and incresingly Western EU region?" I mean we're well on our way to "you'll own nothing and be happy" which some mis-interpret as a coming age of "communism" but which really represents the rentier model of EVERYTHING. You will RENT from us, SERFS, and you'll be fucking happy about it!
It's a joke how little real manufacturing capability we have now compared to the so-called "developing" nations or "gas stations with nukes" that our elites like to tell us about.
Good analysis. And the only answer that matters is: "How well the average Russian (or Chinese or Vietnamese etc.) citizen will do over the next 10 years compared to the West in terms of real world purchasing power and quality/length of life." We're trending downwards and that's *without* the massive sanctions (strikethrough - THEFT) that the US and our cronies are enforcing on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc.
I like the new "Garden of Knowledge" lead too, lol. It's an apt descriptor.
Very helpful explanation of the different impacts of devaluations on import surplus economies. Thanks.
Excellent, top really, I'm sharing it on all major msm in comments sections and Social media (in 3 languages).
Soon they will be touting: Substack is a threat to freedom and democracy
I expect it
Thanks
Brilliant and deep analysis of a kind the normal reader won't find anywhere else; a great synthesis of all the salient facts.
Well done, Mr Simplicius.
One adverse effect to the Ruble being "weak", is that the purchasing power of foreign nations that buy Russian goods is distortedly high, because the Ruble is artificially kept down.
So prices in Russia are high, because other countries can afford to pay more in Roubles and price out Russian consumers, because their currency is manipulated.
As I understand it, mainly manifests in food prices, because with oil and gas, Rosneft and Gazprom are mostly state owned, and they don't jack up the price for domestic consumers, but that's not the case with food.
I agree and I'll give you an example of this.
New Zealand is by far the largest exporter of milk in the world. Yet the price of a gallon of milk is more in New Zealand than the US. If they have one thing in large supply in NZ, it's milk.
It's kind of counter-intuitive. But in a globalized world, that's how things work.
As you say, some countries have different prices for domestic vs export commodities. That was one reason for the protests in Kazakhstan, when they raised the price of some fuel (propane, I think it was). The export price was much higher than the domestic price and they tried to close that gap a little bit.
Thank you for yet another informative article.
However, Russia didn't "win" Sevastopol in 2014. At the end of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed an agreement to let Russia use Sevastopol as a naval base. In fact, the "little green men" of 2014 in Crimea were already there on the scene - stationed at the Russian base in Sevastopol.
The only thing that happened (w/r/t Sevastopol) is that it went from being a naval base LEASED to Russia (sort of how Guantanamo is leased to the USA) in 2014 to one owned by Russia. In other words, except for the paperwork (and a few Ukrainian security guards), nothing changed.
Wasn’t the ‘lease’ agreement with Ukraine signed in 2010? And if yes, wouldn’t it be made irrelevant after 2014? Just curious.
Yes, I do understand it. My question was rather - if Crimea is now in Russian Federation, the ‘lease’ becomes irrelevant. Although I read somewhere that it was being recently discussed by Ukrainian government, which seemed to me bizarre.
Russia leased Sevastopol Treaty for 30 years renewable lease back in 1990s .. but Svoboda & Right Sector (they get only 5% of the national vote but 40%+ in rural West Ukraine) who led the Maidan coup had vowed in their campaign platforms to kick Russia out of Crimea regardless of signed Treaty lease as well as outlaw Russian language
Before 2014 for years, note that the majority 70%-80%+ of industralized East UKraine Donbass (which used to be part of Russia until Lenin redrew the borders in 1920s) elected President Yanukovich for 10+ years in had already agreed in Feburary 2014
to step down
and sign the EU Agreement and hold new elections after March but Maidan leaders Svoboda/Right Sector
still stormed the gov buildings with radio intercepts saying it was their only chance to get into the government
--and they controlled the opposition hotel where snipers shot BOTH police and protestors to get them to fight each other since both sides had guns (protestors were also throwuing Molotov cocktails petrol bombs against police , setting some on fire as well as armored personnel carriers)
--the lease Treaty allowed Russia to station up to 25,000 troops in Crimea (similar to how Germany treaty allows US to station troops in Germany also
Yes. And Russia was allowed to have 25,000 military personnel in Crimea, a number they never exceeded (by a long shot) during the so-called "invasion".
Thank you! An excellent overview of the topic I DO struggle to understand. I have to admit - this is my favourite question: “oil and gas now likewise make up more than 30% of U.S. total exports. Who’s the gas station now?”
Seems much of the West's economic figures are massaged these days, the changing the algorithms for inflation being a prime example. Countries like Australia are cutting their prime source of trade income with China to appease US interests and waste billions on US arms instead. The GDP is reported as healthy even though manufacturing is disappearing and the only driver of wealth are housing and stock Ponzi schemes. It's all a house of cards.
Hence interesting to see the true state of Russia, as economics is the second front of the war, many would argue the real front. It also reveals that our true rulers have a lot more at stake here than just a regional conflict.
even inflation in most countries isnt counted how it was say in the 80's. And i am fairly sure i remember a headline saying the UK was counting estimated drug and hooker sales in its gdp a few years back!
Gotta make those numbers work,lol.
Thank you very much for the usually brilliant analysis ! We are very spoiled by you, that as if we were sitting in a huge office as the president of an imaginary global company, we would receive a private, expensive analysis from you ! What I really regret is that your opinion does not reach the thinking population of the planet, so that they can see the facts, how the MSM lies to our eyes !
As an Italian, I was primed about this during the European "Debt" Crisis, when Anglo-German banks frame PIGS foreign debts as a problem of public debt.
I knew Russia would maul western economic the moment I saw its trade balance.
I add a point: the "greatest sanction package in history" i.e. the steal of Russian foreign reserves was proposed and orchestrated by Mario Draghi, the ghoul that destroyed Italy in 1992 and Greece in 2014 (infancy deaths doubled thanks to his austerity package to Athens). The steal is the leading cause of the actual dedollarization. Martyanov is right: the smartest Western is dumber than the dumbest mobik.
Excellent analysis
Great digestible summary, again, I don't know how you get your head around so many topics. As an Australian, land rich in resources, I cringe at how we have squandered so many opportunities to be strong and independent. Is autarky ever a bad thing for a country? Or is it only bad for the multinational pirates that profit from arbitrage and substitution?
we have many distended colons...
Am aussie too, and don't like this direction we're headed. Both parties are the same. US and AU intel are deepened and our media tout the same bullshit position the ones in US does.