Great analysis. I really like Electricity Production as a proxy of a country's true output. Never thought of it like that but really makes sense; and if I look at it as a kW/population then Japan and Russia are pretty similar - NOT expected at all.
Regarding the currency wars, we do hear a lot about a BRICS currency and all that; but what is holding that back (and will for the forseeable future) is that China still has capital controls and the Yuan is not a freely traded currency. Until it is, this is not a realistic alternative. Of course, the Chinese have shown recently that they are perfectly capable of changing on a dime, so lets see.
On economic/military output - I am starting to understand the western strategy to defeat Russia. They seem to believe that Ukraine can fight Russia to a kind of stalemate on the ground, and that over the course of 2+ years western industrial output will eventually overwhelm them. Cold War Redux. In this sense, the strategy of attrition vs territory has an obvious weakness.
Lots to absorb, as usual, but happy someone is translating the currency and financial mess, not that I understand it, but it is a start. At least I trust the author to tell it straight.
Anyone know anything about the blogger that got blown up in St. Petersburg?
I guess to me the question is "how financialized is the Russian economy compared to the US and its lapdogs in the Oceania, Canada and incresingly Western EU region?" I mean we're well on our way to "you'll own nothing and be happy" which some mis-interpret as a coming age of "communism" but which really represents the rentier model of EVERYTHING. You will RENT from us, SERFS, and you'll be fucking happy about it!
It's a joke how little real manufacturing capability we have now compared to the so-called "developing" nations or "gas stations with nukes" that our elites like to tell us about.
Good analysis. And the only answer that matters is: "How well the average Russian (or Chinese or Vietnamese etc.) citizen will do over the next 10 years compared to the West in terms of real world purchasing power and quality/length of life." We're trending downwards and that's *without* the massive sanctions (strikethrough - THEFT) that the US and our cronies are enforcing on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc.
I like the new "Garden of Knowledge" lead too, lol. It's an apt descriptor.
One adverse effect to the Ruble being "weak", is that the purchasing power of foreign nations that buy Russian goods is distortedly high, because the Ruble is artificially kept down.
So prices in Russia are high, because other countries can afford to pay more in Roubles and price out Russian consumers, because their currency is manipulated.
As I understand it, mainly manifests in food prices, because with oil and gas, Rosneft and Gazprom are mostly state owned, and they don't jack up the price for domestic consumers, but that's not the case with food.
However, Russia didn't "win" Sevastopol in 2014. At the end of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed an agreement to let Russia use Sevastopol as a naval base. In fact, the "little green men" of 2014 in Crimea were already there on the scene - stationed at the Russian base in Sevastopol.
The only thing that happened (w/r/t Sevastopol) is that it went from being a naval base LEASED to Russia (sort of how Guantanamo is leased to the USA) in 2014 to one owned by Russia. In other words, except for the paperwork (and a few Ukrainian security guards), nothing changed.
Thank you! An excellent overview of the topic I DO struggle to understand. I have to admit - this is my favourite question: “oil and gas now likewise make up more than 30% of U.S. total exports. Who’s the gas station now?”
Seems much of the West's economic figures are massaged these days, the changing the algorithms for inflation being a prime example. Countries like Australia are cutting their prime source of trade income with China to appease US interests and waste billions on US arms instead. The GDP is reported as healthy even though manufacturing is disappearing and the only driver of wealth are housing and stock Ponzi schemes. It's all a house of cards.
Hence interesting to see the true state of Russia, as economics is the second front of the war, many would argue the real front. It also reveals that our true rulers have a lot more at stake here than just a regional conflict.
Thank you very much for the usually brilliant analysis ! We are very spoiled by you, that as if we were sitting in a huge office as the president of an imaginary global company, we would receive a private, expensive analysis from you ! What I really regret is that your opinion does not reach the thinking population of the planet, so that they can see the facts, how the MSM lies to our eyes !
As an Italian, I was primed about this during the European "Debt" Crisis, when Anglo-German banks frame PIGS foreign debts as a problem of public debt.
I knew Russia would maul western economic the moment I saw its trade balance.
I add a point: the "greatest sanction package in history" i.e. the steal of Russian foreign reserves was proposed and orchestrated by Mario Draghi, the ghoul that destroyed Italy in 1992 and Greece in 2014 (infancy deaths doubled thanks to his austerity package to Athens). The steal is the leading cause of the actual dedollarization. Martyanov is right: the smartest Western is dumber than the dumbest mobik.
Great digestible summary, again, I don't know how you get your head around so many topics. As an Australian, land rich in resources, I cringe at how we have squandered so many opportunities to be strong and independent. Is autarky ever a bad thing for a country? Or is it only bad for the multinational pirates that profit from arbitrage and substitution?
Great analysis. I really like Electricity Production as a proxy of a country's true output. Never thought of it like that but really makes sense; and if I look at it as a kW/population then Japan and Russia are pretty similar - NOT expected at all.
Regarding the currency wars, we do hear a lot about a BRICS currency and all that; but what is holding that back (and will for the forseeable future) is that China still has capital controls and the Yuan is not a freely traded currency. Until it is, this is not a realistic alternative. Of course, the Chinese have shown recently that they are perfectly capable of changing on a dime, so lets see.
On economic/military output - I am starting to understand the western strategy to defeat Russia. They seem to believe that Ukraine can fight Russia to a kind of stalemate on the ground, and that over the course of 2+ years western industrial output will eventually overwhelm them. Cold War Redux. In this sense, the strategy of attrition vs territory has an obvious weakness.
Lots to absorb, as usual, but happy someone is translating the currency and financial mess, not that I understand it, but it is a start. At least I trust the author to tell it straight.
Anyone know anything about the blogger that got blown up in St. Petersburg?
I guess to me the question is "how financialized is the Russian economy compared to the US and its lapdogs in the Oceania, Canada and incresingly Western EU region?" I mean we're well on our way to "you'll own nothing and be happy" which some mis-interpret as a coming age of "communism" but which really represents the rentier model of EVERYTHING. You will RENT from us, SERFS, and you'll be fucking happy about it!
It's a joke how little real manufacturing capability we have now compared to the so-called "developing" nations or "gas stations with nukes" that our elites like to tell us about.
Good analysis. And the only answer that matters is: "How well the average Russian (or Chinese or Vietnamese etc.) citizen will do over the next 10 years compared to the West in terms of real world purchasing power and quality/length of life." We're trending downwards and that's *without* the massive sanctions (strikethrough - THEFT) that the US and our cronies are enforcing on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc.
I like the new "Garden of Knowledge" lead too, lol. It's an apt descriptor.
Very helpful explanation of the different impacts of devaluations on import surplus economies. Thanks.
Excellent, top really, I'm sharing it on all major msm in comments sections and Social media (in 3 languages).
Brilliant and deep analysis of a kind the normal reader won't find anywhere else; a great synthesis of all the salient facts.
Well done, Mr Simplicius.
One adverse effect to the Ruble being "weak", is that the purchasing power of foreign nations that buy Russian goods is distortedly high, because the Ruble is artificially kept down.
So prices in Russia are high, because other countries can afford to pay more in Roubles and price out Russian consumers, because their currency is manipulated.
As I understand it, mainly manifests in food prices, because with oil and gas, Rosneft and Gazprom are mostly state owned, and they don't jack up the price for domestic consumers, but that's not the case with food.
Thank you for yet another informative article.
However, Russia didn't "win" Sevastopol in 2014. At the end of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed an agreement to let Russia use Sevastopol as a naval base. In fact, the "little green men" of 2014 in Crimea were already there on the scene - stationed at the Russian base in Sevastopol.
The only thing that happened (w/r/t Sevastopol) is that it went from being a naval base LEASED to Russia (sort of how Guantanamo is leased to the USA) in 2014 to one owned by Russia. In other words, except for the paperwork (and a few Ukrainian security guards), nothing changed.
Thank you! An excellent overview of the topic I DO struggle to understand. I have to admit - this is my favourite question: “oil and gas now likewise make up more than 30% of U.S. total exports. Who’s the gas station now?”
Seems much of the West's economic figures are massaged these days, the changing the algorithms for inflation being a prime example. Countries like Australia are cutting their prime source of trade income with China to appease US interests and waste billions on US arms instead. The GDP is reported as healthy even though manufacturing is disappearing and the only driver of wealth are housing and stock Ponzi schemes. It's all a house of cards.
Hence interesting to see the true state of Russia, as economics is the second front of the war, many would argue the real front. It also reveals that our true rulers have a lot more at stake here than just a regional conflict.
Thank you very much for the usually brilliant analysis ! We are very spoiled by you, that as if we were sitting in a huge office as the president of an imaginary global company, we would receive a private, expensive analysis from you ! What I really regret is that your opinion does not reach the thinking population of the planet, so that they can see the facts, how the MSM lies to our eyes !
As an Italian, I was primed about this during the European "Debt" Crisis, when Anglo-German banks frame PIGS foreign debts as a problem of public debt.
I knew Russia would maul western economic the moment I saw its trade balance.
I add a point: the "greatest sanction package in history" i.e. the steal of Russian foreign reserves was proposed and orchestrated by Mario Draghi, the ghoul that destroyed Italy in 1992 and Greece in 2014 (infancy deaths doubled thanks to his austerity package to Athens). The steal is the leading cause of the actual dedollarization. Martyanov is right: the smartest Western is dumber than the dumbest mobik.
Excellent analysis
Great digestible summary, again, I don't know how you get your head around so many topics. As an Australian, land rich in resources, I cringe at how we have squandered so many opportunities to be strong and independent. Is autarky ever a bad thing for a country? Or is it only bad for the multinational pirates that profit from arbitrage and substitution?