True, but what is the chance of that happening, considering it would mean taking out the ZioNazi government, the UkroNazi government, the non-leadership, and the U.S. administration and Congress?
This is the Truman sindrome. Its all red in the American public brainwashed sick minds. Similarly, Bill Gates, Soros and Schwab would be bolchevik demons. Seriously, what could these people possibly achieve? You dont have a clue.
God I hate it, but they have been given so many opportunities and still with the lies and murderous chaos. Their desperation is definitely showing. Perhaps they can be convinced otherwise, immunity for testimony, along with a power castration?
Quite the coincidence anyone who makes a serious case for peace winds up killed. So if we need to fight anyway?
We need to become acutely aware of the endless ways that the world is divided and conquered. Those we are trained to hate, we must learn to love.
Since hate is closer to love than indifference, we must destroy the killers in a methodical detached way. As one would a rabid dog. Reapplying the historical rules of law, they have assiduously de-platformed.
I've read that the Palestinians have suffered more civilian casualties than both sides in Ukraine, just since oct-7-23' where the other has gone on since 2014. This is Russian indifference. They are not killing for the fun of it. It's a job that must be done, they offered many ways to deescalate.
The Russian demands are sensible and rational. The West has bankrupted itself morally and financially supporting a Nazi resurrection and all sorts of other globalist nightmares. In the real world good should prevail. Perhaps we've gone too far.
Worry not, I value all my free subscribers as well, particularly at this current time when financial disaster is besetting the globe and most people are in a bad place, financially. But it's simply a call for those who are able, as I use the BuyMeaCoffee funds to offset the losses from fees % from Substack/Stripe.
Although six days remain in the poll, I cannot vote. My budget allows me one paid subscription, and you are it, yet I cannot vote. It does not matter, just thought you should know. I only care that I may read your excellent content, for which I am grateful daily.
There are many new financial roadblocks to getting money into digital form as well in recent years. In Argentina, we still have the CEPA (or government-fixed exchange rate), despite Milie's promises to remove it (we still have a central bank as well... so much for promises). Dollar-based transactions are subject to numerous difficulties now. I have to upload a local ID to freelance, using a U.S. service provider? How does the U.S. have any right to my ID simply because I advertise my services on a website based in the U.S.? I promise to send you some money one day when these difficulties are resolved. I do really appreciate having a real journalist cover the most important event of the moment.
To finance government debt, create inflation, and in most countries, prop up money creation via fractional reserve lending, an inherently unstable monetary system based upon usury and the hocus pocus of double-entry bookkeeping. They serve no useful purpose.
I wish there was a way to buy you a coffee to gain one time access to a paid article, I can't afford a subscription but your writing is worth paying for, and I could pay once in a while.
Doesn't seem so from reading this article...which it doesn't seem you read; coming up with gems like "no response from Moscow". Maybe read the article and then comment.
I did read it. Russia has excellent defenses and a capable army and intelligence. But it does not have deterrence. There is a lot of logic to the argument that Ukraine is slowly but surely attriting the notion that Russia has red lines at all.
This makes sense of your beginning comment, and your point is well taken: Russia's operational restraint makes it appear tentative. I do not believe that is at all the case, but appearances bulk large in the court of opinion, and sometimes lend encouragement to flailing wild shots like this Kursk adventure.
I will leave the battle tactics and strategy to better minds with better information than mine, but it seems apparent that Zelensky himself is like the boxer who has been beaten for five rounds and can barely keep his gloves up.
This is not a fight for political power on his part. I think he would flee Ukraine with his family today, if his "bodyguards" weren't standing so close: Zelensky is fighting for his life. I predict he will lose, and soon.
Certainly your point about the hopelessness of defending the Russian border at all points is well put, which is why Russia announced the impending destruction of the Ukraine in 2008, when a lame duck US administration declared Georgia and the Ukraine would join NATO, true?
Simplicius has written before on the new battlefield realities that make slow attrition and "boa constrictor" tactics the smart play-- do you see that differently? How so?
Russia has been constrained during this SMO with the possibility that NATO (the US and Europe) could enter in force relatively quickly. They learned quickly that US satellite surveillance intelligence was effective. Ukraine learned earlier the effective use of drones. Much faster then the Armenians against the Azerbaijanis, Russia adapted. Rommel, Guderian, Patton like blitzkrieg now didn't work. Slow, snail like attrition warfare was adopted. Too late did Russia enlarge their army after the West nixed the peace plan Ukraine was close to accepting. This allowed the successful Ukrainian offensive taking Kupiansk and going past the Oskil river, capturing Izium and Lyman as well. How many casualties has Ukraine inflicted as Russia slowly takes this area back. In hindsight the Kherson retreat was the correct decision. The Russians did retreat effectively. There have been no debacles for Russia like the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive. Russia has handled the Black Sea area poorly but not disastrously. For the longest time augmented Soviet era counter air defense worked well for Ukraine negating Russia's air superiority. From my armchair I do think Russian intelligence could have done much better with perceiving the Kharkov offensive and this Kursk invasion. Fortunately the advance in Kursk was stopped well before the nuclear plant. What a hostage situation that would have been. On the whole Russia has been successful in their slow and unimaginative attrition strategy.
Stop. The casualties and embarrassment are the West's propaganda. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also more embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world.
As Mao wrote in "People's War", war is not just engagement military to military. It must engage every domain of human endeavor. War must be fought everywhere, on the battlefield, online, in factories, in the court of public opinion. Defeat in one can have a large effect on the overall outcome. This is why the Soviets won in Europe, why the Vietcong won in Vietnam and why a bunch of Chinese farmers were able to beat the US Army in the Long March.
Point being, it doesn't matter if "Red lines" are a westoid concept. What matters is people think they exist, and perception is reality. Of course Ukraine tries to use this concept to its advantage, but for example powerful strikes on Ukrainian decision making centers (say the Rada when it is in session) can send a clear message and act as a deterrent. This is not done. And crucifies Russia in the court of public opinion.
The Westie MSM, perhaps, thinks they 'exist', some kind of useful shortcut to describe in colorful language tit for tat or a sufficient counter move or riposte, which is nothing more than every action in every war, involving everyone at every level
So that people watching on tv can see something like the Olympic games, with fair just and valiant ('winning') behaviour marked in colour and prized accordingly
For The 'people' in a Maoist sense, I do not think that red lines mean anything, certainly not in Russia or China, why should they take to their hearts a meaningless westie bureaucratic concept which is useless except as propaganda
Food, homes roads that work: a sense of their proper cause and their collectivity and country -in plain language and concrete
'Red lines' is marks on a bureaucrat's map, c.1950 maybe, turned into a metaphor and made to sound ...impressively administrative, and a clever short cut to an impressive truth
In other words schematics without sense, a war fought drained of ideology and pragmatics, realism and morals, people and lives
Terrorism never works at scale for nations and armies - is the last refuge of the weak
Resistance, revolution, or Guerilla warfare is not to be confused with
The westoids control perceptions through their stranglehold on worldwide MSM. This perception is enough to influence them to continue escalating. It doesn't matter if it exists in the Russian conception, if it exists to them, it exists and they will base their policy off this concept. Until Russia starts replying in a way they understanding (striking decision makers in Kiev, giving Palestinian tanks and missiles, having Houthi's strike American carrier groups, BLM protestors shooting at police, etc) they won't stop. The westoids see restraint as weakness.
"why a bunch of Chinese farmers were able to beat the US Army in the Long March"
WTF.
Mao fought the Kuomintang/Chiang Kai-shek (nationalist Chinese) + various warlords who were allied with them in the long march. No USA involvement. In fact, Nazi Germany DID provide military aid & sent advisors to help the Kuomintang.
" But it does not have deterrence. " More accurately, Russia is learning that even the phenomenal deterrence it does have comes with limits. That goes for Russia's huge nuclear deterrent and also for Russia's phenomenally massive conventional warfare deterrent.
It's a lesson for all of the nuclear states: the ultimate deterrence nukes give you only comes into play when your enemies are totally annihilated and you with them.
Russia is also learning that despite its huge conventional war deterrence capability that deterrence doesn't work against deranged people. It also doesn't work against states that are captives of decision makers, either domestic or other countries, who maximize their own gains no matter if that destroys the state at issue.
Consider that Ukraine as a nation state has been destroyed, even far beyond the tearing into pieces and exodus of millions of Ukrainians as a result of the US destroying Ukraine as a single, coherent state in 2014. Any rational person who has a real interest in not destroying their own countries would look at the Russian response to the US blowing off Russia's ultimatums in late 2021 and early 2022 and would be seriously deterred from not following the path the US took.
But decision makers in the US weren't deterred by the possibility that Russia would respond with force because for the US the war in Ukraine wasn't a bug, it was the desired feature. The US couldn't care less if everybody in Ukraine dies so long as that permanently cuts the EU away from Russia, makes abject vassals of the EU states, and enriches the US from energy and weapons sales.
Russia cannot use military force to deter the US from such adventures because the resulting general war, even if it remained conventional, would derail Russia's otherwise spectacular development.
Russia also cannot deter a corrupt junta in Kiev that stands to make billions personally and which does not care if the entire population of Ukraine is erased. That's the toxic magic of having a handful of totally corrupt leaders who can take advantage of a vicious, armed minority that has become committed to a deeply psychotic ideology (psychotic because everything about the ideology is made up).
That's the sort of thing that got entire countries full of people killed during the religious wars in Europe, or nearly an entire continent full of people killed when a handful of Nazi leaders who were intoxicated with personal power entranced the German nation with Nazi ideology and Aryan myth. You can only deter such people by killing them.
As with the religious wars that slaughtered people in Europe for centuries, that might also be the only way to deal with the deranged ideologues who have seized power in most EU states.
They, too, are ready to kill their people (and, at a minimum, impoverish them) to stay in power, to expand their careers, to continue the good life of flying in private jets to elite confabs and staying in hotel palaces waited on hand and foot. The coupling of deranged ideologies with extreme avarice and narcissism with second rate intellects mixed in seems to assure that almost nobody in power in Europe considers the likelihood that their cities may end up looking like the ruins in Gaza any sort of deterrent.
Keep in mind that while Russia is learning its deterrents have limits, so also the US and the EU are learning their deterrents have limits. Their nuclear deterrent doesn't stop a country like Russia from waging conventional war, and their conventional deterrent doesn't either. They are dismayed to learn that they have no economic deterrent against a country which is both self sufficient and which has a more durable international economy than they do, by virtue of so many of the world's countries having no replacement for Russian resources.
Whether the West or anybody else thinks Russia has any red lines at all doesn't really matter. Russia will keep doing what it is doing, and it will defeat the West in Ukraine. It will also erase Ukraine's nazi leadership, and, quite likely completely remove the nazi state of Ukraine, with whatever structure that replaces Ukraine being something that Russia and not the west chooses.
Russia is playing the long game. It is developing itself as a country and as an economy looking ahead a full century or more. It doesn't matter to Russia if, as a matter of soothing the need for revenge that it has to wait a few decades to well and truly revenge itself on the US, the EU, and every vassal that has committed an act of war against Russia, like supporting the nazis in Ukraine.
Russia doesn't really care what people in the West tell each other in the interim. If they want to tell each other "yeah, we're really on top now..." that's fine with Russia. Let them bark at each other while Russia carefully builds its position and develops together with other like-minded countries. Russia, India and China now make up three of the four largest *real* economies in the world. That's an astonishing rise for all three considering where they all were just 30 years ago.
What the conflict in Ukraine *has* taught Russia in terms of deterrents is that it is mistake not to lance the boil, cut out the cancer before the tumor takes over the entire body. Russia didn't have the strength to do that in 2014, but it does now. If the US tries any more regime change operations right on Russia's border, I think Russia would intervene actively at a far earlier stage.
As much as the west has unrealistic victory expectations for Ukraine, what exactly is the definition of victory for russia? Russia cannot force a general surrender from kiev, and cannot occupy the whole country. I expect this war to last years personally
Very good comment, although I disagree with some of it.
"Russia cannot force a general surrender from kiev, and cannot occupy the whole country." Respectfully disagree on both. Russia has the "military-technical" (love that description, from Russia's December 2021 ultimatum to the US...) power to kill every last soldier Kiev puts into the field.
At a certain point when there is too great an imbalance in force, the losses for the weaker protagonist rise asymptotically with proportionately fewer losses for the stronger protagonist. That tipping point can come with very little notice and then, suddenly, a conflict becomes a rout, basically a hunting down and slaughter of survivors by the prevailing party. Kiev's field armies are nearing that tipping point, and, unlike the West's narrative, they are reaching that tipping point playing the role of the weaker protagonist.
Talk by nazi creeps lie Budanov of Kiev being able to continue a war until 2044 if it conscripts 16 year olds is vicious nonsense. Without the substantial framework of 100,000+ man field armies such child forces tend to disintegrate into disjunct pieces that can be hunted down and slaughtered.
That's what both the US and the USSR did to the Hitler Youth in the closing months of WW2, and what Marshall Zhukov did to the Banderist Nazi guerrillas in Ukraine after WW2.
Can Russia occupy the whole country? Yes, relatively easily.
The provinces in Ukraine not yet a part of Russia can be roughly divided into three types: Somewhat more than a third have sufficiently many ethnic Russians and native Russian speakers that they would breathe a sigh of relief if the war ended with them becoming a part of Russia. Much less than a third are hard core nazi homeland where a significant part of the population, 10% to 20%, would have to be policed with great attention and technical efficiency to prevent terror attacks by the 5% that are such die-hard nazis they would prefer to die along with their children than live within Russian territory.
The remaining provinces are a mix of people that used to be overwhelmingly ethnic Russian and pro-Russian but which now include a significant number of people who have been swayed by ten years of massive, unrelenting, continuous Western and Kievan Nazi propaganda into thinking that "Ukraine" has existed for a thousand years instead of just coming into being in 1991, and who are Russophobic. That's mostly the youth, which haven't known anything in the last ten years, the ten years they grew up from children into young adults, than Kievan and US propaganda. But those provinces also tend to be apolitical and are full of people, again, mostly the youth, who just want the war to stop because they don't want to be the last person dragged to the front and killed in some miserable muddy landscape reeking of death and full of shredded trees and human body parts.
Those provinces won't be centers of Nazi terrorists but will just go along with whatever happens so long as they can go back to posting idiotic videos to each other on Tik Tok.
The above bears on your key question:
"what exactly is the definition of victory for russia? " Russian spokespeople will usually refer people asking that question to Putin's speech at the beginning of the special op: Russia's objective is to de-nazify and de-militarize Ukraine and to ensure that it never can pose a threat to either Russia or to ethnic Russians in Ukraine. But that leaves so much unsaid about what Russia considers to be the end game that accomplishes those objectives.
If you look at the deal Russia was willing to do in Istanbul in March of 2022, an acceptable definition of victory would not have included de-nazification, because it would have left the nazi-dominated Kiev junta in power. It also would not have de-militarized Ukraine because it would have allowed them to keep a significant army. It was basically a slightly stronger form of Minsk.
If you look at the deal offered earlier this year, it would have left Ukraine in existence, although the provisions in that offer that were ignored by the West would have required extremely strong guarantees of neutrality. But that deal, I believe, is no longer available to the US or Kiev.
I don't see how Russia can achieve its core objectives of eliminating Ukraine's ability to be a threat to Russia or to ethnic Russians without taking over all of Ukraine. I think Russia's leadership (based on what Medvedev says) feels the same way. They're just still saying that some partial existence for Ukraine is still possible because they know that the nazi-junta will keep rolling out atrocities that will take that off the table. I don't think Russia is in any mood, under any circumstances, to trust any Western "guarantees" about Ukraine.
The Kiev junta is a dog that has to be put down. It could be that Russia occupies all of Ukraine as a protectorate and then after a lengthy period (decades) gives it successively more autonomy and then finally some complete independence of some part of it that has proven it is now rehabilitated, sane, and free of foul Western influence. But as we've seen with Finland, Sweden, Germany, and Switzerland, promises of neutrality made even after the catastrophic destruction of WW2 don't last. So maybe that's a game Russia won't ever play and will just deal with the situation by occupying Ukraine, cleaning out all the nazis by force, and then if the West doesn't like that, fight the West in general war.
"I expect this war to last years personally" - I agree. I think the tipping point for Kiev will come relatively quickly. After a year or two of attrition and decreasing ability to launch even terrorist attacks like the Kursk invasion, there will be an asymptotic collapse.
But after that it will take five to ten years to hunt down all of the nazi terrorists that will continue to launch terror attacks. I expect many will move to Poland or other rabid Russophobe countries, and if they continue terror attacks from those countries Russia will use military technical means to demonstrate there are no safe havens for such terrorists. If that brings general war with NATO countries, Russia I think will be ready for that.
Ultimately, I think we're in for decades of intermittently cold and hot war between a declining West and a rising Russia and Rest of the World. Ultimately I think the declining economies of Europe will bring the biggest pressure on EU states to drop the Russophobia and start playing sensibly, throwing the Ukrainian terrorists they host under the bus, in order to get a better connection to China's economy and to Russia's resources.
Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. Additionally, the West's willingness to intervene in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya shows they act when deterrence isn't a factor.
I recall a sense of disappointment in the Iraqi military for not under the guise of laying telecommunications cabling along the desert road from Kuwait and Iraq planting massive quantities of explosives and white sulfure, to be detonated as a welcome to Iraq surprise for the Coalition of the Willing (to murder half a million Iraqi children).
No they're getting embarrassed because they let their airfield and aircraft get destroyed. The Black Sea submarine Rostov-on-Don sunk, kursk embarrassment, and now belgorod. That's just the last week. While they've done zilch
Everything can happen on the war with an enemy that can shoot back and target your rear. That includes airfields with stationed aircraft.
Incursion into Kursk oblast is hardly an embarassment. AFU uses mostly wheeled vehicles in this attack and are simply moving on the roads quickly. Right now most of the vehicles are taken care of and Russian Army tightnened the grip. So let the safari begin. And yes, it is not possibly to prevent such incursions entirely, you can't fill such a long border entirely with fortifications.
"Rostov-on-Don" was not sunk. From where did you get this info?
What's about Belgorod? AFU got decimated and rolled back with high casualties.
They are currently evacuating belgorod because ukraine is about to do the same there that they did in kursk. And Looks like Ukrainians are now in Sudzha - if we assume that this video is from today as per geroman, a pro Russian account
""Zilch"" Have you been drunk for two years? perhaps you were locked in a cellar? Or is it simply ignorance? They have eliminated over half a million nazis and destroyed $150 billion dollars worth of nato equipment. I think most sane people would agree that's not zilch. Nato couldn't even defeat the taliban, who had no air force or artillery.
Stop. The casualties and embarrassment in the West are used as propaganda. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also more embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world.
THIS RUSSIA-UKRAINE HAS GIVEN MANY COUNTRIES IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH THAT THEY CAN STAND UP TO THE WEST-ESPECIALLY THE USA. AND MORE ARE TURNING TO MAKING DEALS AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH RUSSIA
That submarine was fully repaired couple months ago. Not just from the damage, but from conditions it was in repair bay in first place. Considering you don't know that, I question your sources and judgement on anything regarding the SMO
I'm afraid not. Logistics rules here. Russia has already cut off their supplies for the most part. It is only a matter of cleaning house now - the end for the Ukies is inevitable.
probably much earlier than that - you cannot operate for long without logistical support (ammunition, fuel, food) and there is no hope in getting that across in sufficient numbers consistently. there are already reports that AFU recon groups dropping their vehicles (run out of fuel and can not resupply) and proceeding on foot. very much remind me the foot human wave offences of UA a year ago (after they learned that RU does know how to mine the fields), with same results..
Ru AF took too long to invade Sumy, as that would have tied up Ukrainian forces in the region and prevented an invasion of Kursk.
Now the opposite happened, Russian forces are tied up in Kursk and an invasion of Sumy looks unlikely for now. Which is why a quick defeat of AFU is of utmost importance.
This is what weapons are for. If your border is indefensible, you need deterrence. But just having weapons is not sufficient, you also need to balls to use them.
Which has not been the case.
The moment the first shelling of the NPP started back in 2022, a message should have been sent to the Ukrainian elites -- you try this once again, and Iskanders will start taking you out one by one, no matter where you are. Then you do indeed start taking them. For each transgression -- shelling of the NPP, shelling of Donbas civilians, shelling of the border areas, terrorism acts inside Russia, etc.
Two years later not a single one of them has been touched, so of course they feel free to do whatever they want.
The invasion into Russia has now been going on for a week. Putin has been completely MIA other than showing up for a few minutes looking very angry. No address to the nation, no declaration of war, no strikes on Kiev leadership, no nukes on Poland and Romania to stop the flow of weapons. Nothing.
The "excellent leadership" has turned Russia into another Syria.
Israel and the US bomb Syria whenever they feel like, and the Syrian government cannot/does not do anything to stop it.
At this point it is really more of a lack of ability, because they were attrited down to that level over a decade of war, but early on it was actual failure to reenforce deterrence.
Russia is on the same path.
What has the SMO achieved so far?
Russian airfields are bombed by NATO 350 km inside the country, and 100,000 people had to be evacuated on pre-war Russian soil so that they don't get slaughterd by the Nazis.
Those are empiricial facts.
How is that for ensuring the security of the country?
"The "excellent leadership" has turned Russia into another Syria."
Abject nonsense. Like what, you don't have a map handy? Open a map of Russia, or look at a globe. Russia extends about half way around the world in the Northern Hemisphere, over 9000 km.
The current extent of Kiev's incursion into Kursk oblast, already much shrunk, is about 18 km. That's 1/500th of the east/west extent of Russia, and about the same of the north/south extent. It's such a small portion that if you printed a map of Russia on a letter-sized or A4 sized sheet of paper you almost can't mark it without marking too big a region because the width of most pen and marker lines is too wide.
Russia as a country is completely untouched. It's not like Syria at all. It's a place with rising real incomes, rising life expectancies, a solidly first world country with great medical care, superb culture, wonderful education, a booming economy and really outstanding quality of life. Saying that Russia is another Syria is an abjectly stupid comment that shows you know nothing either about Russia or Syria.
The airfield in Lipetsk was destroyed by an ATACMS/Storm Shadow strike a few days ago
That is 350 km inside Russia, and if they can strike there, Moscow is in range too.
I know the dummies like you are intellectually not capable of grasping what that means, but those are the facts.
Which might be related to the fact that Putin finally showed up a few hours ago with Gerasimov, Shoigu and the rest of the senile boomer gang, and it was from a bunker, not from the usual location.
Exactly as I said: the only adult in the room full of toddler in soiled diapers who are leading the world to nuclear disaster. Western delusional politicians and military are great only with photo-ops and propaganda speeches. You don’t seem to get that cultures and psychology of other nations different from yours. God save the world from the Anglos mentality.
"The airfield in Lipetsk was destroyed by an ATACMS/Storm Shadow strike a few days ago"
Nonsense on both fronts. The airfield in Lipetsk was significantly damaged, not destroyed, and not by ATACMS (which doesn't quite have the range to reach it). Ukraine doesn't have enough Storm Shadows to inflict significant damage beyond a strike here or there that does not change anything at all about the progress or outcome of the conflict. Can you grasp that?
"That is 350 km inside Russia, and if they can strike there, Moscow is in range too."
So what? Kiev shoots at Moscow almost every other day. Russian air defense knocks down almost all the attempts. What does Kiev achieve in doing that? Nothing except wasting Storm Shadow missiles to no military purpose that might have been used to strike military targets that could slow down Russia's steady progress taking over more and more of the territory that nazi junta controls.
The more of its own soldiers Kiev kills by sending them on suicidal terror attacks that have no military purpose but to attempt to bait Russia into a general war with the US, the closer Kiev gets to that fatal imbalance of forces where the conflict tips against Kiev and Kiev's killed in action numbers skyrocket asymptotically while Russia's decline.
That's when Kiev's armies collapse, the nazi elite take to their private jets and fly off to their villas in Switzerland and France, and the West starts arguing about "who lost Ukraine".
Stop. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. I noticed change happening in Congo after Putin's recent visit to the nation.
Yes, Russian deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. The West's willingness to intervene in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya shows they act when deterrence isn't a factor. The articles cited above indicate that many Western countries view this supposed invasion as a failure and a disaster in the making. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world. Lastly, if Russia were so weak, why haven't Sweden or Finland joined the fight on the border? They could easily intervene and destroy Russia—perhaps because real deterrence exists in reality, even if it doesn't in your fantasies.
That's not how it works. Russia has been building legal fundament for their actions. By eliminating leaders of Ukraine it will show others (not the West) that Russia does not follow its own principles.
And do you really think that decision making figures are in Ukraine now?
Anyone in the Kremlin who is primarily thinking about legalities right now must be immediately lined up against a wall and shot for high treason.
Because the other side is most definitely not thinking about legalities, thus you placing those above eliminating the enemy means you are sabotaging the survival of your own country.
Did you read what I write? I did not say it was for the West (or Ukraine). All Russia's actions are being scrutinized and analyzed by other neutral or friendly countries in the world, primarily Global South.
It is a long term strategy and military objectives of SMO are not the only things that should be taken into account by Russia.
This Kursk incursion does not endanger Russia in the slightest, all is in control.
Russia is currently destroying Ukraine's most elite troops in KUrsk. As the article cited mentions, Ukraine is risking the culmination and potential end of their army. If Russia is so vulnerable, why haven't Sweden or Finland joined the fight on the border? Please, wake up to reality.
if you count killing AFU by thousands now (in just DAYS) as 'no response from Moscow' I do not know what to tell you...
I get it , sky is never blue, grass is never green, Russia does not ever respond 'enough' (even when it does with massively overwhelming force) - I think it is hard to go through life with such degree of depression and pessimism...
Please, enough of this "death by thousands". If the AFU was really taking those casualties this war would be over.
RuAF is still fighting in the far east of Ukraine, far from the river, capturing major cities is out of the question. Yes, small towns and villages are being taken - upon ruin and destruction.
And as others have pointed out, Z and his buddies are having a very easy time of it, not worried about their safety, whereas Putin has assassination attempts on him and bombing and killings happen in Russia regularly. Or regularly enough.
over a thousand a day , each day, every day in dead and wounded
and the whole sky is falling - please stop with this stupidity.
everyone (other than paid UA shills and some crazed 'all is lost' manic-depressive types who should turn of enemy propaganda) sees that war is being won and won decisively by RU. loss ratios, production, movement on the ground, morale, EVERYTHING is HUGELY in Russian favor.
Do you see RU citizens being press ganged by nazi goons on the street to 'serve' (like UA Nazis do) ? Do you see RU citizens burning anything related to mobilization (like UA do)? What about massive outages country wide in Russia (like in UA) does that happen? What about massive rocket strikes with hundreds of ballistic missiles, do you see this hitting Omsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk? No, no, no, no.
You keep writing like UA troops are storming MKAD, UA air force is fighting near Vladivostok and UA storm troops are near Murmansk. Stop, this is not the case. Relax, breath out, think. and the whole 'very easy time of it' and similarly BS.
Look the Rada gathers frequently to rename another street in the name of Bandera or his cronies. And yet they remain safe. It is not necessary to kill Z, when a strike on the Rada as a response to these events could send a powerful message to Kiev.
Even a massive, indiscriminate barrage on Kiev would be sufficient. This sound bad but it works. My great grandfather lived in German occupied territories and told us that every time a Partisan killed a Wehrmacht soldier, 10 civilians would be killed. This was enough to cause villagers to dislike Partisans and try to avoid them. Enough damage and chaos in Kiev would be enough to cause the civilians to start calling for an end to the war.
You're focusing on a few isolated issues, but you're overlooking the broader, more significant developments that are causing a wave of change across the world:
1. Russia has withstood the West's economic warfare.
2. They are acquiring more territory.
3. Ukraine's economy has been destroyed.
4. Germany is on the brink of or already in a recession.
5. Germany is experiencing deindustrialization.
6. There's a wave of instability across Europe.
7. The Ukrainian population has been devastated.
8. France is losing its assets in Africa.
9. The UK is facing a recession.
10. Japan's economy is suffering.
11. South Korea has real, heightened concerns over North Korea.
12. Growing concerns over the RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA ALLIANCE.
13. THE USA and the West's failure to address the Houthis in the Red Sea
14. Russia gaining soft power/capital social standing (I never imagined that this could happen again)
Anytime, anyone, anywhere, is trying to make you act based on emotional response, you are being manipulated and about to be taken advantage of. Why allow this?
Always check your information sources (information hygiene), always understand their limitations and/or biases.
separately the whole 'all is lost and always lost' is a mental disease - what is now called bipolar disorder or in medical terms manic-depressive illness. why succumb to it by injecting utter informational trash that is now pouring from UA sources?? Relax, breathe, take a walk outside, unplug from internet for 3 days, move on. Take care of yourself, of your health, physical, mental, and emotional.
for the scenario/article discussed, the situation of Kiev junta regime forces is so bad that their clumsy attempts to show 'wins' stink of desperation. they are not even trying to be believable! fake photos, fake 'victories', fake 'captures' , fake everything. why bother with this? I do not think anyone who followed this conflict over 2.5 years can take anything coming out of Kiev seriously, they lie pretty much all the time.
That's the truth of modern war between large nations. If the US wanted to guard the border to Canada with the world's largest standing army, it could only consistently protect the border of North Dakota.
How porous a border is dependent upon terrain. Ukraine is the flatland entrance every Western power has used to invade Russia in history, from what I know. Hence no NATO in Ukraine is vital to Russian interests.
Technically and legally Ukraine is a part of Russia. It was given autonomy under condition that it never join NATO and remain a neutral state between Russia and the aggressive warmongering West.
NATO would take St P in 3 days as all Russian borders to NATO are unprotected as Russia have all its military resources in Ukraine. I thought Putin said the NATO threat was imminent.
It's the "familiar desperation" as the Russians say about such attacks from losing chess positions...The Ukrainians have been smoking their own weed too much...They will be ejected with severe losses, or surrender when they run out of fuel, which would be more humane....
The point here is to establish precedents. Two of them, both extremely unfavorable to Russia.
1) ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes on Russian airfields are OK. Clearly they are -- because there has been no response. Which is devastating -- it means that those can one day be swapped with strategic nuclear warheads and Russian early warning system will not detect them as a launch-on-warning threat. Especially the cruise missiles -- ballistics you can kind of guess what the targets are from the trajectory, but cruise missiles fly low and you just don't know that, so the moment they cross the border, you are supposed to launch the nukes towards Europe and the US, because if you didn't, one day you will get a decapitating first strike. The nukes didn't fly so the precedent has been established.
2) Russian can be subject to full scale invasion with hundreds of units of armor, tens of thousands of solders, and a combined arms operation, by NATO, and there will be no response targeting NATO. What does that mean? That Finland can invade Karelia, Japan can take the Kurlis, Poland can take over Kaliningrad, etc.? What is to stop them?
If you have imposed on yourself a ban on the use of nukes, then you effectively don't have nukes. And your enemies can proceed as if you don't. Then you are just another Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc., only bigger. But the outcome will be the same.
chill and stop listening to voenkurwas - 'ten thousands of soldiers' 'hundreds of units of armor' is all BS. turn off the ципсо 'all is lost' TG channels. what RU is doing now is exactly what is stopping/deterring any such attempts. Read Rojers who wrote 'and you call THIS an invasion???' https://alexandr-rogers.livejournal.com/
Yeah, an unguided missile that lands miles away form its target is the same as a modern PGM that takes out your whole ammunition depots and makes your helicopters and planes into swiss cheese on the ground.
Absolutely the same lack of impact.
Oh, and ATACMS can potentially carry nukes too, but let's completely ignore that threat.
It took ages for Russia to start supplying Western enemies with weapons. Even then the response has been muted. Indeed, Russia could have openly supplied the Palestinians and surged supplies in response to the West surging supplies to Ukraine, this would eventually cause Israel to demand to reduce supplies to Ukraine. And since US is an Israeli colony, then it would be forced to obey.
Indeed, even the supply of weapons to Western enemies has been muted. Iran has done nothing to Israel, Russia has not financed BLM/far right protests within the US, it is not covertly encouraging protests and instability in Britain (as the Soviets would have done). It seems that Russian political leadership is too soft
Unless DC has some assets in Kiev to deal with Zelensky and any of his like-minded associates (from cronies of his to the nationalists that in some ways are the real muscle of the regime) very quickly, I think in some ways Zelensky has put himself in the driver's seat not unlike Bibi, albeit in a more crude fashion.
Bibi's interest in a war with Iran is at least aligned with the interests of the MIC, and is also at least somewhat containable to just the Middle East at least in theory. Ze on the other hand, threatens what more in DC do not want - an actual hot war with Russia which would rock the table far too much even outside the real risk of nuclear exchange.
I think Zelensky's calculus - as cynical and immoral as it is - holds that NATO will have to do something if any of the nuclear power plants are damaged in such a way to release a Chernobyl level amount of radiation into Europe - doubtless it would actually be worse. Europe would certainly cry out and the reaction from the Kremlin would likely spook everyone, so without a way to make Ze and his gang disappear within 48 hours I think Zelensky is 'right' about how to keep his ship floating even if it is a ghastly plan. He has also likely considered that given the wind direction most of the radiation will damage Russia anyway and this would be enough to cause something to happen in Russia that DC would be forced to react to - even if it is a total shot in the dark predicting what that might be.
Certainly, these are no longer interesting times, but dangerous ones.
If the coke Führer thinks he can threaten his curators I'd expect his bodyguards have other instructions. Besides there's no honour among thieves so his share of the loot is a lucrative target for his curators.
Did not take long for Nancy Antoinette to remove Joe from the chessboard--and the compliant media stayed mum.
DJT "took a bullet for democracy"--and the compliant media stayed mum
Ditto w/ the Usurper of Kiev
I'm not suggesting that the gesticulating eyebrow-waggling Speaker Emerita will personally helm the takedown--she won't--but the elements of the Interagency which protects itself from foreign threats will be on the Usurper of Kiev like a strong immune system cracking down on bacteria: zapped
I doubt US will ever allow seizure of assets of their favourite puppet. They have very good record of failed stooges keeping their loot and living in US till their death. There is purpose for that - once you break that trust, you will never get another willing idiot
If only consequences figured in the calculations. And as always the US and UK claim not to have any prior knowledge of recent events, it was all the coke fuhrer's fault.
Indeed. The Clown only knows of optics and public perception. And in there you have the root of self-deception. They pulled the tricks of Bucha and the first ones at Zaporisziazha moving the public and the stupid/evil leaders of the West in to the fold of Russiahaters. They pulled the tricks of Mariupol theater and ”russias indiscrimate bombings of ukrainians cities and villages delibarately killing civilians”. Letting a clown and the Bankova circus drag a 34 million state into full destruction (wait until Russia destroy the last of the energy providers) and doom the remaining people to either be asylants in other countries or face the rest of their lifes in poverty is a crime against humanity.
If the Z regime is escalating without authority, and into the nuclear arena, then I would think his days are numbered. No doubt his demise will be blamed on Putin but my guess would be that others will take decision.
>Unless DC has some assets in Kiev to deal with Zelensky and any of his like-minded associates (from cronies of his to the nationalists that in some ways are the real muscle of the regime) very quickly, I think in some ways Zelensky has put himself in the driver's seat not unlike Bibi, albeit in a more crude fashion
What are you smoking? In DC they didn't know it was going to happen?
This isn't a Zelensky operation, it is a NATO one. You have regular NATO forces in Kursk now, even if sheep dipped, and the whole invasion is done using NATO communications, satellites, logistisc, weapons, etc.
This is the foundational error most pro-Russian people on the internet are making -- they are still seeing this is a Russia vs. Ukraine war, and so they think that Russia is winning.
But it is not a Russia vs. Ukraine war, it is a Russia vs. NATO war, even worse -- one in which Russian people (most Ukrainians are that) are used to fight Russia, so NATO doesn't have to expend its own forces. Once you understand that, you will see that Russia is losing very badly at the moment, and the only way that can be turned around at this point is strategic nuclear strikes on NATO in Europe. For a full wipeout of all the countries between the Atlantic and Russia, with the exception of Hungary, Slovakia and the Balkans, and perhaps you don't strike France and the UK because they have nukes (but if you can take those nukes out, you absolutely do annihilate them). Then you dare the US to strike with nukes, which if they have any sense in DC, they won't do, and that will be the end of it -- the buffer will be the radioactive wasteland in the middle of Europe and Scandinavia, which Russia should quickly occupy after that, especially Scandinavia, and that is how you ensure security.
It has gotten to that point.
It didn't have to be that way, but the other options are largely foreclosed because deterrence was not enforced. Of course, there was always the option of striking Western elites with precision strikes, without destroying their cities, but by now they probably have nukes ready to launch from shipping containers and other hidden installations all around Europe, so you have to go for a full wipeout with megaton-range weapons. That option would have been effective early in the war, but Putin is in the business of protecting Russian elites, not Russia, so that was unthinkable (because Russian elites still want to be part of Western elites, plus if you start taking out Western elites, they might return the favor; better to have the peasants slaughtered by drones instead while you yourself are looking for a deal where there can never be one).
Nah. Nuclear strikes are not necessary, yet. What is necessary is tit-for-tat. West supplies Ukraine? Ok. Palestinians suddenly get tanks and missiles and start striking Israeli bunched up, parked tanks.
Russian territory is struck with ATACMS? Palestinians strike the Knesset with long range missiles that were "lost due to corruption".
Russian territory is struck with storm shadows? Houthis strike an American carrier with ship buster missiles.
Ukraine does a cross border raid? American BLM protestors suddenly show up armed to their next protest. Far right protestors start getting more violent in the US.
Ukraine invades Kursk? An American politician gets killed on his way home from work.
Poland supplies Ukraine? "Ukrainians" within Poland suddenly get violent and start pogroms on locals.
This is how you properly deter. The message is loud and clear and will be enough to show you also have teeth and aren't afraid to use them.
1) How are the Palestinians going to get those weapons? They are fully encircled.
2) Launching proxy wars away from the West or stoking unrest inside it does not in way restore deterrence.
Right deterrence has been completely lost. Russian can be invaded, bombed, have heavy missiles fired at it, anything, and the Kremlin has established the precedent that it will just take it because they are "the responsible adults in the room". Well, what follows then? More of the same and even worse. Because there are no consequences.
But if you have gotten to the point where they are invading you and bombing you, the only way to restore deterrence is to bomb them on their own territory. Directly that sufficiently hard so that they never think about it again. But at this point things have gotten so out of hand, that "sufficiently hard" is already above the nuclear threshold. Simple as that.
1) Palestinians have access to the sea. And there are tunnels through Egypt. Plus this should've happened ages ago. Russia had plenty of time.
2) Having the West look bad when Houth's strike a US carrier group with Russian made missiles is sufficient. Stoking unrest is enough of a message to the Elites to cool down. That is whom the message needs to be addressed to.
Bombing them on their own territory starts a war with NATO and Russia must then fight on two fronts. Even the US is avoiding direct war which is why they use proxies. Which is why the method I suggest is most effective. The US will know that suddenly violent BLM protestors and far-right groups in the US are funded by Russia. Russia can tell them "lay off Ukraine and this goes away, or we escalate, do you want that?"
But yes, you are right - the lack of consequences leads to this.
The radiation would move eastward not into Europe. Russia would be negatively affected more than anyone else if Z were able to destroy one of these NPP's... Chip
Logistics, logistics, logistics. How did 404 plan to supply this mad raid? Preventing an insane raid is impossible, since sane military analysts expect their counter parts to also be sane. But when dealing with insane idiological opponents, you end up suprised when a suicide raid occurs. Russian military is now mopping up, they had sufficient reserves to handle this, and by the end of the week the only outcome will be more dead opponents. To use a chess analogy, a rook was sacrificed to take a pawn. A daring raid, with disproportionate losses. Idiotic.
The more interesting observation is the western medias naivity in interpreting this raid. Honestly, can they really be that clueless?
One must remember the low-information voters for whom they produce their drivel and write their budgie-cage liners. The movie "Anchorman" was probably if anything not harsh enough in depicting the mental midgets who report the news.
One theory is that they planned to do a mad dash to Kurchatov and immediately capture Kursk NPP as their intelligence likely indicated Russian conscript defenders in the area were weak. But there's some reports that some conscripts fought like lions and ruthlessly repelled AFU advances.
This is my take, they intended to capture Kursk NPP and sequester there while holding the world hostage; the idea being they wouldn't depend on reinforcements and supply lines if they captured that dangerous prize.
And they still try to, despite being hunted down and eliminated one strike team after another. Lost seven BTRs in just one encounter, three Strykers in another, yet they still roll in more reserves and push towards ever so slightly.
Push towards the Ukrainian border & quicker than slightly. God knows where you've gotten your info from. Go on the official Russian MOD daily briefing. They've been bang on correct, in fact very conservative in the daily figures they've given up to now. The Ukrainians are being wiped out in industrial numbers right now in Kursk. They've not moved anywhere for days except backwards. Since Putin announced those that invaded Kursk were officially implimenting a terrorist operation & is in no part of the SMO. Basically the Ukrainians in Kursk have 2 choices. First one is to surrender, 2nd one is certain death. Only prisoners are the ones that will surrender. Russia has sent in abundant reserves. Heavy bombing, heavy artillery 24/7, constant drone attacks & 3 battalion of the best trained & most experienced men
Out of 12 thousand Ukrainian & foreign soldiers that went into Kursk. At least 8 thousand will be remaining in Kursk forever. That's up to now, any Ukrainians trying to withdraw are being picked off by FPV drones, Any that managed to dig in. Are being attacked 24/7 by heavy bombs & artillery.
And destroying Sumy rear with multiple FAB for days, these losses from Sumy and the other side of the border are NOT counted in daily losses of both sitrep from MOD (front and Kursk CTO).
According to G Doctorow who has intel very deep in Mosow, they(Kremlin) are evacuating populations not only for their security but because they will then wipe out the all area eventually with small tactical nuke, this is RU territory they can do what they want and it will give a strong message to ukronato don't even dare to try again, next one is for you, starting with decapitating Kiev junta that way as a starter. They are just awaiting big weapons from Central RU not to take away anyone from Donbass front.
Although a tactical nuke always seemed a stretch, there is indeed a use for it that I just realized. An aerial explosion will burn out all EW and AA components that Ukies brought up in such numbers. Dunno who or how reliable Doctorow is, but point in fact: both Russians and Ukies are evacuating the area.
It was written more than a day ago about Ukies who got relatively grounded only now, with occasional fire teams on light armor still appearing here or there to probe the defenses. It's still not solid enough to be called frontline, but Russian reinforced positions are now packed densely enough for another major breakthrough to be very unlikely. Ukie reserves on the other hand still keep rolling in, mostly just to die, but they're digging in.
Yep, some people report that conscripts are in such high spirits that put veteran fighters to shame. They took that very personally and enthusiastically. That Ukie report about them running and immediately surrendering - I can picture a hopeless case or two, but overall, they've performed splendidly despite lacking heavy weaponry. Unsung heroes that allowed the reserves to start spilling into the area.
The sheep-dipped OTAN mercs dashing toward Kursk w/ the *Ukrainians* were not prepared for the tooth & nail ferocity of conscripts standing as the first line of defense & sacrifice for their homeland
The sheep-dipped OTAN mercs have no visceral way of comprehending this
They are probably ''fake mercenaries'',but real NATO in ukro uniforms, like 'légion étrangère' from France where many former ukros and anti VP former Russians are part of, which gives in the case of Macron 'plausible deniability', but I really don't know if countries like Poland or UK have also these kind of 'foreign legions'(legal not gladio or mercs)? Expect some freedom fighters to be sent soon, aka ISIS, Al nusra and co..other types of nazis working for zion.
Good video from a guy who really knows Russia perfectly (he lives 6 mths in Petersburg and 6 mts in Brussels), probably the last 'kremlinologue' on this planet and a very decent US citizen.
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: Is Russia About to EXPLODE with Fury?
IAEA: No trace of drones at the cooling tower in Zaporizhzhya After inspecting the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found no signs that it has been hit by drones.
The people from the IAEA also say that they consider it unlikely that the fire at the Russian-occupied facility started at the foot of the cooling tower.
Alaudinov is doing an excellent job: he has charisma, good view of mil situation, patriotic but able to critic at the same time (not à la Prigo at all), diplomatically, good at com + P R but not fake P R à la kievites fake news,this new Gen will go very far at the top of Russia future, he will take Kadyrov role over (who will more concentrate on his Oblast). The kind of guy with real combat experience not a MOD general only in name but in acts. Maybe I'm wrong but I would bet on him to become a hero. Hope God will keep him alive he deserves it.
Not clueless. Innovative and mad as hell but it is good optic in the West and they could have managed to take the Kurchatov plant for a brief moment. That would have caused some ”panic” in Kreml.
Of course you are spot on regarding western media. They love the spectacular, the daring and the lore of a single man doing heroic deeds. The West is a gigantic drama with shows going on all-over the spectrum of society. Only for brief moments there are afterthought or crsip analysis of the Reality.
I tend to agree but even some of the mad men writing in the Daily Telegraph (a pro NATO/Ukraine propaganda rag) are framing this as militarily foolish but a massive embarrassment to Russia and Putin in particular. But then they seem to childishly reduce everything in the war to a battle of personalities.
Sure there are clear-eyed people in the west, but they're trapped in this Hollywood script that every WWII war movie has brainwashed them into. If you're a deviant in the west, you're literally out. No job, divorce and friends absent.
US political elites were the mostly ignorant, trust fund C and B students in college who found History boring and went into "business" or got free passes to a "law degree". They are unimaginative, very selfish, and lack any appreciation for foreign cultures and peoples. They suck so bad it's hard for me to put into words.
And c'mon, let's face it--embarrassment is a world-beating LOC strategy. The burning Strykers & bombed-out Marders served up so much embarrassment that Russia's capitulation is now a foregone conclusion. It's getting FABulous along the treelines near Sudzha--as in FAB100s--but let's remember how embarrassment has now tipped the scales
Raytheon is now *ramping up* some more embarrassment
Slapping together a hodgepodge of troops in whatever vehicles were available to perform an old-fashioned Razzia is the nadir of innovation, and reeks of MI-6 reading one too many "Boys own WW2 adventures"....
Well since 2022 the Western MSM has shown they are more interested in narrative creation than truth. Just give them an angle and they will create the spin. It has just gotten to the point where their credibility is totally spent and the question must be asked if they are truly clueless or merely delusional though the line between each is so thin. It can also be considered they will follow their masters to whatever depth holding on to the narrative spun to the very end.
At first the raid appeared to me to be a spoiler attack. Now, it's just another expensive failure, a zugzwang.
For the NAFO types that occasionally comment here, Russia could have prevented, or at least, reduced the already marginal effectiveness of the raid by building up it's border defenses years ago at the expense of destroying the Bandera army in the disputed territories oday.
Great rundown, as usual. Zelensky's Samson option: go for a nuclear power plant. I don't know what the technical vulnerabilities are. I hope they are limited. The Empire will not go gentle into that good night. Never has, never will. Maybe the pundits are confused, but the notion that the Empire didn't know about, and approve, this Hail Mary is unbelievable.
Kirby: "We're TRYING TO REACH OUT to our Ukrainian partners to get a little more information about their operation." One can only hope that they eventually choke to death on their mendacity.
Here's how the empire's mouthpiece, the nytimes, reports it:
<< Facing a Ukrainian Incursion, Putin Directs His Rage at the West >>
and leads w/ this quote:
Mr. Putin, speaking with security chiefs and regional governors at his residence outside Moscow, *lashed out* at the West [ emphasis mine ] over Ukraine's weeklong incursion into Russian territory. "The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians," he said, repeating his frequent depiction of the 30-month war. "The enemy will certainly get the response he deserves, and all our goals, without doubt, will be accomplished."
This, according to the nytimes, is *lashing out*--?!!?
One other thing I forgot to mention in article was the recent intelligence that Zelensky reportedly was trying to potentially assassinate Putin/Belousov at the St. Petersburg Naval parade a couple weeks back.
When you couple that (if true) with the ZNPP strike, it really paints a picture of a truly spiraling madman ready to escalate to nuclear war. If this is the case, it would be a very revealing and telling acquittal of the theory that AFU is truly on its last legs in Ukraine.
The thing I find Putin guilty of when it comes to Zelensky and friends is far too much mercy for them. Prigozhin got whacked when he didn't fulfil his end of the bargain. But Zelensky and friends? Constantly far too much leeway, won't even kill their families like Israel does.
Your main problem is believing that the smo is about the conquest of ulraine. It is not. If you could zoom way out and carefully examine the big picture things would make much more sense.
At this point, Zelensky is as much in charge of Ukraine as Biden is of the USA. Both are merely figureheads for the real decision makers.
I would have a good hard look at Budanov as the real culprit here, he has that "Himmler Mk2" air about him, and access to all the necessary levers of power.
The only reason that will happen is if they have someone to replace him (they don’t and can’t) then blame it - as they comically do with everything - on Russia (which will be a VERY hard sell as only a small number of people still believe that crap).
Otherwise, Ukraine will collapse and unconditionally surrender soon after. That’s another Vietnam and they don’t want that.
It's all good except Zelensky deciding anything. This is an intentional Nato attack. The western propaganda assets have changed the narrative. They are clearly heading for negociations thinking that dumb Russia will gently accept their terms. However, to begin with there is no Ukranian legit counterpart to sit down at a table. That only will take weeks if not months to decide. An armistice before November for Biden's credit? Will Russia agree to be dragged into the Nato agenda?
Yes, strong chance because whenever Russia posts Ukrainian stuff, it's in clear view. When Ukraine posts something negative about Russia, it's always either blurred or people have their faces covered conveniently like in the case of some random soldiers "revolting against Putin", etc.
Right from the get go Ukraine's war propaganda has been a farrago of lies, ditto the NAFO clowns and camp followers. These people are so lazy and inept they can only convince goldfish.
I wanted to fit it in this report, but it simply grew too long. I may cover it with more detail next time. But in general, I think this strike is greatly overplayed, not many losses, maybe a couple dozen at most if not less. The HIMARS strike on column in Kherson 2023 was far, far worse, potentially 50-120 dead if not more. But there's many pieces of evidence that this one wasn't as bad as doomers would love to believe, which I'll try to cover next time, space permitting.
At this advanced stage of the conflict, I am constantly amazed at packed columns of trucks or soldiers travelling en masse. I mean, soldiers should keep at least 20m apart (not 6') and trucks 100m apart. It is not so difficult to do.
That si how you operate a large concentration of troops if you want to move them to position quickly. Otherwise your troops arrive gradually and are not able to seal the breach in time, for example.
In short if you have, for example, 10 large columns moving and one of them is hit. But others arrive in time to positons and stop/block/etc. the enemy. Or you have 50 small columns which arrive gradually and fail their objective.
Piecemeal deployments will get more killed than arriving to battle in numbers with a proper formation. I know that it is vogue now to say that the age of "maneuver warfare" has ended, but getting there firstest with the mostest has been a winning strategy for 6000 years of conflict.
The commander of the special forces "Akhmat" Alaudinov admitted that Kadyrov soldiers were captured by Ukrainians near Kursk. However, as he says, it is not about his special forces, but about the "Ahmat-Chechnya" battalion🤡
Bad enough. Especially considering the fact that Russia military is STILL that incompetent. They didn't think they would use western weapons on their soil. But ukraine called their bluff. Another red line crossed that Russia won't do anything about
That's a good point I didn't actually consider. I wonder if some commander thought "They're not allowed to use HIMARS on our soil, so we should be safe to park here for a few minutes."
May as well had. Had them lined up close together like sitting ducks. What kind of nonsense was that? Russia had their "no using western weapons on Russian soil or else" Red lines. But they figured Russia won't do anything about it so why not
A BM-27 would have been just as bad. I think they just kinda rolled the dice. Civilians were in danger, and Nazis are notorious for how they behave towards enemy non-combatants.
No, as I comment to Alfred, above, this was no more than someone higher on the food chain screaming "Get ALL your men there, NOW"...
And they went, and they were "got".
At this point, proper movement spacing should be a matter of standing orders for ALL participants in the SMO.... but there will always be those who try to impress higher authority with the speed of their obedience, not the speed of their thinking. Worse, there will be authorities who prefer the obedience to the thinking...
After they dragged the HIMARS to the parking space in that village stripmall mercifully just across the border, they realized they did not have the right change for the meter.
Ooops, there goes Rabbity. Ooops there goes gravity
The tough thing about being a proxy is that you have to do all the grunt work
When I was in military service (logistics), we did not (!) use large columns. We did the same as Napoleon some 200 years before: march on different roads but come together for battle. Of course, I am from Middle Europe, where infrastructure is very dense, so this tactic might be unusable in Eastern Europe. The best men were positioned at intersections and were responsible for ensuring that every different vehicle was going in the right direction—no wireless communication was allowed! Every vehicle had a driver and a navigator.
In peacetime we used long columns, but for war, we trained this different style. Do not forget, the logistic branch is getting the best soldiers. But, by good luck, we never experienced a war time, so maybe Clausewitz is right: Make a plan, the moment you meet the enemy, everything is different to the original plan.
Yes, I see what you mean. However the intensity of this conflict is very high (perhaps the biggest conflict after WW2). And it's a war against an enemy that can hit your rear and execute combined arms maneouvers. So it is a necessity to move in large columns sometimes. To move large mass of troops quickly and efficiently without losing control.
And remember that for each Russian column hit, you get 5-10 Ukrainian columns decimated. Just from this Kursk operation alone.
How do you know that's a red line? Why do you keep thinking that Russia hasn't responded to any supposed red lines? Are you truly slow or just so obsessed that you've lost all perspective?
Do you understand that:
- Ukraine's economy is destroyed.
- Ukraine has lost a significant portion of its population.
- Support for them is truly waning.
- They have lost land and will lose more in negotiations.
- Their electrical system is hanging by a thread, and people are very concerned about the coming winter.
It seems that many people like yourself are either a) bloodthirsty, like so many Westerners, especially Americans and Israelis, or b) ignorant of the human desire to survive even in the face of suffering.
The Ukrainians won't stop until they are forced to or face total destruction. It makes sense—this war is about their survival. So stop speaking as if you understand war and what it means to fight for survival because you can't even comprehend it.
Update from Fifth Fleet Commander VADM George Wikoff, USN (see Annexe for résumé)
A gloomy report, not well received by the US naval hopists, I mean those who are still indulgent to some extent to US Navy failures
A determined failure on the part of the US Navy to understand the nature of maritime commerce
And that is even before criticising the expense purely military failures committed by their Navy
Nor commenting on the recent AA attacks on commercial shipping (see Annexe)
Even Politico underlines the US defeat and no way out (see Annexe)
This is exactly the same role that Kim plays up in NW Asia (greetings in Annexe)
NB --The role of AA on it’s own but with it’s back gotten by dint of their courage and success, by regional popular support, and one can assume discreet Irani material help
Is identical to the role of Nth Korea in their time zone – stalemate from the go as far as Sth K and Japan are concerned – plus Kim is certain (and the SKs and the Japans know) that Russia will support NK in every possible or plausible fashion, plus China with surrepticiousness if that’s a word
“”The @USNIProceedings and @CSIS hosted @US5thFleet cdr for a discussion on the #RedSea. This clip goes to the heart of the matter.
1️⃣ Good historical perspective with 25 ship attacks from 2016 to Dec 2023 by #Houthi, before the latest series of attacks.
2️⃣ His meeting with 85% of the global industry is probably the ten large container firms and not with all aspects of the industry
3️⃣ What is the definition of 'stability'? Is it a reduction in War Risk as there are methods to get it reduced
4️⃣ VADM Wikoff states there is no spike in inflation...but are he and @CMF_Bahrain looking at freight rates (which have spiked) or port congestion (which has also increased)?
5️⃣ Global commerce has "SELF-HEALED." That is NOT true for tankers, car carriers, bulkers, and many other sectors that don't have excess capacity like containerships.
My concern is that @DeptofDefense, @CENTCOM, and @usnavy do not fully understand the dynamics of global shipping and its facets. For many firms, their diversions are providing needed spikes in rates to offset what was falling revenue.
In the meantime, this has a long-term negative impact on Shippers and consumers who are seeing delays and spikes in cost which is leading to inflation.””
All the details on the crude oil tanker Delta Blue (IMO 9601235) the Houthis attacked multiple times Thursday and Friday can be found in our updated map below. The tanker, owned by Greece-based Delta Tankers, reappeared in the Red Sea ( AIS on) earlier today sailing northbound. The attacks involved an RPG, USV, and two missiles.
The Delta Blue is laden with a cargo loaded in Iraq's Basrah as I mentioned yesterday in the tweet below. On July 15, the Houthis targeted the Chios Lion (IMO 9398280) owned by Greece-based Stealth Maritime Corporation which suffered minor damage but continued sailing. The tanker was carrying a cargo loaded at the Russian port of Tuapse, and sailing to Asia. See the chart in yesterday's tweet below on Houthi attacks on *tankers* specifically.
Our map also includes the operations U.S. CENTCOM forces have been carrying out over the past days in the Red Sea and Yemen ( when the Houthis are not attacking commercial ships reported by the media, this does not mean it's quiet in the region).
Nor have Russian cargoes been spared, tho’ not very often targeted – which should underline to binary westie readers that the situation is very much more fluid
It is worthwhile noting RF official policy is to support the UN peace process in Yemen and to recognize the Aden government
By way of contrast Typical alt media US commentary on the general Iran-Isael parameters
NC Yves Smith especially is very US centric
Can only go so far to comment on inherent US shortcomings - and are very afraidafraid of the nuclear bot
Only a tiny comment on the position and influence of Iran's allies, starting with Russia, but also including China
And nothing about AA - which is stupid - AA are very much more important than the westies wish to admit - by their Red Sea success alone fatally have weakened any Israeli or US claims to freedom of action, and by such have greatly increased the economic pain suffered by Israel - see this weeks CNIS
Plus have reminded the Saudis to behave, which it appears they have done
And have, by all accounts the Muslim ‘street’ as the US niks like to say, but which should properly be called the West Asia working class, and yes some influence on outside that area countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia – although Indonesia appears to closely track the RF attitude to the Yemen
This is a common trait in Westie alt press - they are just as US centric as their MSM in comments about the world outside, with only limited exceptions (Conor Gallagher, Nick Corbishley)
Politico, even, points out that the US Navy has been held hostage at heavy cost, have wasted arms and boats best saved for other purposes, and all to no vail
Even though Politico fingers Iran as the actor and AA as the proxy, to dress up the defeat, there are in fact no illusions that AA is doing fairly close to as it wishes, which is, after all also fairly close to the aims and intentions of Iranis, as of the other non staters in the area – this is called correlation not causation
“There is a huge cost” being placed on the U.S. in continuing its mission in the Red Sea, said Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official, including “a real strategic cost to U.S. readiness, to say nothing of the opportunity cost on our ability to project power in the world.” Lord is now a fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington.
“During the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group’s twice-extended nine-month deployment to the Red Sea, U.S. forces fired over 135 Tomahawk land attack missiles, weapons that cost upwards of $2 million apiece, at Houthi targets in Yemen. The ships also launched 155 standard missiles of various kinds, which cost between $2 million and $4 million per missile, to destroy the drones.”
“The F-18 aircraft aboard the Eisenhower also fired 60 air-to-air missiles and 420 air-to-surface weapons during the defense strikes at sea and targets on the ground. The Eisenhower and its escort ships returned to post in Virginia in July, handing off to the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group, which has continued knocking down drones on a daily basis.
The precision anti-ship and air-to-ground missiles that are being used in Yemen are the very type of weapons that would be front and center in any fight with China, “so China’s ultimately the big winner across the board,” Waltz said. “Our fleet is getting worn out. We’re shooting off the missiles we need to defend against the Taiwan scenario
It's fascinating in particular that the Fleet Commander Wikoff is drilling down into the semantics by asking "What is stability?"
It is very difficult in the Fog of War to thumb through a dictionary for the exact definition of certain words, like "stability." Plus--the 'S' section of the English dictionary has more entries than any other section, so that's a lot of thumbing.
Then there's always the question of which dictionary does one reach for--Webster's? New American? Oxford?
Given the events in Gaza it is clear the only chance for peace involves killing those intent on war.
True, but what is the chance of that happening, considering it would mean taking out the ZioNazi government, the UkroNazi government, the non-leadership, and the U.S. administration and Congress?
They are not Nazis....(((They))) are communists.
They are just Jews, communism was invented to put a small group (Jews) at top benefiting from everything, and everyone else at the bottom as slaves.
When you look at communism from the "we are the chosen" perspective you can see this.
Sounds like capitalism.
Unregulated capitalism.
You’re fxcking stupid
It's spelled "fucking".
I wantws to bypass possible censors
Yes it started in 1917...
Moron
This is the Truman sindrome. Its all red in the American public brainwashed sick minds. Similarly, Bill Gates, Soros and Schwab would be bolchevik demons. Seriously, what could these people possibly achieve? You dont have a clue.
Quantitative easing in trillions (aka fake money) and 2.1 quadrillions of derivatives (even more fake with almost zero collateral).
A mix of both.
Sadly, it’s much worse: Bolsheviks all the way down.
You’re mentally deficient
That would be pretty much the entire Western establishment.
Unfortunately, the only real, permanent solution lies in war. We can only hope it will not go nuclear.
History is replete with proof that bad ideas die with the people that hold them.
So we must make war to get peace.👍
God I hate it, but they have been given so many opportunities and still with the lies and murderous chaos. Their desperation is definitely showing. Perhaps they can be convinced otherwise, immunity for testimony, along with a power castration?
@frankly
"it is clear the only chance for peace involves killing those intent on war."
-----------------------
I'll get on with that "killing for peace" project just as soon as I'm done with the "fucking for virginity" campaign.
Quite the coincidence anyone who makes a serious case for peace winds up killed. So if we need to fight anyway?
We need to become acutely aware of the endless ways that the world is divided and conquered. Those we are trained to hate, we must learn to love.
Since hate is closer to love than indifference, we must destroy the killers in a methodical detached way. As one would a rabid dog. Reapplying the historical rules of law, they have assiduously de-platformed.
I've read that the Palestinians have suffered more civilian casualties than both sides in Ukraine, just since oct-7-23' where the other has gone on since 2014. This is Russian indifference. They are not killing for the fun of it. It's a job that must be done, they offered many ways to deescalate.
The Russian demands are sensible and rational. The West has bankrupted itself morally and financially supporting a Nazi resurrection and all sorts of other globalist nightmares. In the real world good should prevail. Perhaps we've gone too far.
First comment
Frankly speaking I think it was Frank
thank you for great article. I wish I could help you financially
Worry not, I value all my free subscribers as well, particularly at this current time when financial disaster is besetting the globe and most people are in a bad place, financially. But it's simply a call for those who are able, as I use the BuyMeaCoffee funds to offset the losses from fees % from Substack/Stripe.
Are you saying you ain't gonna get rich from this gig? darn.....
Well, I'll do what I can and get others to do what i can't. Your pieces are worth it, and then some...
Although six days remain in the poll, I cannot vote. My budget allows me one paid subscription, and you are it, yet I cannot vote. It does not matter, just thought you should know. I only care that I may read your excellent content, for which I am grateful daily.
There are many new financial roadblocks to getting money into digital form as well in recent years. In Argentina, we still have the CEPA (or government-fixed exchange rate), despite Milie's promises to remove it (we still have a central bank as well... so much for promises). Dollar-based transactions are subject to numerous difficulties now. I have to upload a local ID to freelance, using a U.S. service provider? How does the U.S. have any right to my ID simply because I advertise my services on a website based in the U.S.? I promise to send you some money one day when these difficulties are resolved. I do really appreciate having a real journalist cover the most important event of the moment.
Central banks exist for a reason.
To finance government debt, create inflation, and in most countries, prop up money creation via fractional reserve lending, an inherently unstable monetary system based upon usury and the hocus pocus of double-entry bookkeeping. They serve no useful purpose.
I wish there was a way to buy you a coffee to gain one time access to a paid article, I can't afford a subscription but your writing is worth paying for, and I could pay once in a while.
That's actually a cool idea if it could be made to work.
I have unsubscribed from X, so that I can subscribe to your blog. No regrets, NONE. Money well spent!
Starting to understand why Russia wanted a neutral Ukraine on her borders. Because the border is indefensible.
The AFU is going to be lodged in Russia proper for months. And of course, no response from Moscow.
Putin the Dove, as usual.
Don't think so. A suicide adventure that will be systematically eliminated by Russia as they run out of ammo, fuel, etc.
Doesn't seem so from reading this article...which it doesn't seem you read; coming up with gems like "no response from Moscow". Maybe read the article and then comment.
I did read it. Russia has excellent defenses and a capable army and intelligence. But it does not have deterrence. There is a lot of logic to the argument that Ukraine is slowly but surely attriting the notion that Russia has red lines at all.
Perhaps. But there is also a lot of logic to the argument that Ukraine is slowly but surely getting their asses handed to them.
This makes sense of your beginning comment, and your point is well taken: Russia's operational restraint makes it appear tentative. I do not believe that is at all the case, but appearances bulk large in the court of opinion, and sometimes lend encouragement to flailing wild shots like this Kursk adventure.
I will leave the battle tactics and strategy to better minds with better information than mine, but it seems apparent that Zelensky himself is like the boxer who has been beaten for five rounds and can barely keep his gloves up.
This is not a fight for political power on his part. I think he would flee Ukraine with his family today, if his "bodyguards" weren't standing so close: Zelensky is fighting for his life. I predict he will lose, and soon.
Certainly your point about the hopelessness of defending the Russian border at all points is well put, which is why Russia announced the impending destruction of the Ukraine in 2008, when a lame duck US administration declared Georgia and the Ukraine would join NATO, true?
Simplicius has written before on the new battlefield realities that make slow attrition and "boa constrictor" tactics the smart play-- do you see that differently? How so?
Russia has been constrained during this SMO with the possibility that NATO (the US and Europe) could enter in force relatively quickly. They learned quickly that US satellite surveillance intelligence was effective. Ukraine learned earlier the effective use of drones. Much faster then the Armenians against the Azerbaijanis, Russia adapted. Rommel, Guderian, Patton like blitzkrieg now didn't work. Slow, snail like attrition warfare was adopted. Too late did Russia enlarge their army after the West nixed the peace plan Ukraine was close to accepting. This allowed the successful Ukrainian offensive taking Kupiansk and going past the Oskil river, capturing Izium and Lyman as well. How many casualties has Ukraine inflicted as Russia slowly takes this area back. In hindsight the Kherson retreat was the correct decision. The Russians did retreat effectively. There have been no debacles for Russia like the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive. Russia has handled the Black Sea area poorly but not disastrously. For the longest time augmented Soviet era counter air defense worked well for Ukraine negating Russia's air superiority. From my armchair I do think Russian intelligence could have done much better with perceiving the Kharkov offensive and this Kursk invasion. Fortunately the advance in Kursk was stopped well before the nuclear plant. What a hostage situation that would have been. On the whole Russia has been successful in their slow and unimaginative attrition strategy.
Red lines is a westie concept, and comes from a quickquack tit for tat mentality, which it is evident that VVP and his general staff do not share
Ukies and westies like to suggest the absence of RF hoped for red lines provocations/reactions proves this or that -
It does not - it proves RF is fighting the war their own way
And getting embarrassed as of late. Ira costing their soldiers and civilians lives
"getting embarassed' ....they are not 4 year old children at a party getting ketchup on a t shirt
Or KK mixing metaphors in a speech to the UNGA
Or Joe Biden falling down the stairs
Or VdL's hat full of mouses
Over to you CS you are better than me at this
Stop. The casualties and embarrassment are the West's propaganda. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also more embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world.
As Mao wrote in "People's War", war is not just engagement military to military. It must engage every domain of human endeavor. War must be fought everywhere, on the battlefield, online, in factories, in the court of public opinion. Defeat in one can have a large effect on the overall outcome. This is why the Soviets won in Europe, why the Vietcong won in Vietnam and why a bunch of Chinese farmers were able to beat the US Army in the Long March.
Point being, it doesn't matter if "Red lines" are a westoid concept. What matters is people think they exist, and perception is reality. Of course Ukraine tries to use this concept to its advantage, but for example powerful strikes on Ukrainian decision making centers (say the Rada when it is in session) can send a clear message and act as a deterrent. This is not done. And crucifies Russia in the court of public opinion.
'people think they exist'
The Westie MSM, perhaps, thinks they 'exist', some kind of useful shortcut to describe in colorful language tit for tat or a sufficient counter move or riposte, which is nothing more than every action in every war, involving everyone at every level
So that people watching on tv can see something like the Olympic games, with fair just and valiant ('winning') behaviour marked in colour and prized accordingly
For The 'people' in a Maoist sense, I do not think that red lines mean anything, certainly not in Russia or China, why should they take to their hearts a meaningless westie bureaucratic concept which is useless except as propaganda
Food, homes roads that work: a sense of their proper cause and their collectivity and country -in plain language and concrete
'Red lines' is marks on a bureaucrat's map, c.1950 maybe, turned into a metaphor and made to sound ...impressively administrative, and a clever short cut to an impressive truth
In other words schematics without sense, a war fought drained of ideology and pragmatics, realism and morals, people and lives
Terrorism never works at scale for nations and armies - is the last refuge of the weak
Resistance, revolution, or Guerilla warfare is not to be confused with
The reason is because perception is reality.
The westoids control perceptions through their stranglehold on worldwide MSM. This perception is enough to influence them to continue escalating. It doesn't matter if it exists in the Russian conception, if it exists to them, it exists and they will base their policy off this concept. Until Russia starts replying in a way they understanding (striking decision makers in Kiev, giving Palestinian tanks and missiles, having Houthi's strike American carrier groups, BLM protestors shooting at police, etc) they won't stop. The westoids see restraint as weakness.
@ScipioAfricanus
"why a bunch of Chinese farmers were able to beat the US Army in the Long March"
WTF.
Mao fought the Kuomintang/Chiang Kai-shek (nationalist Chinese) + various warlords who were allied with them in the long march. No USA involvement. In fact, Nazi Germany DID provide military aid & sent advisors to help the Kuomintang.
Don't try to teach what you have not yet learned.
Yes apologies, I misspoke. I realized after I made a grave error. Thanks for correcting. But my point is still valid despite the glaring error.
" But it does not have deterrence. " More accurately, Russia is learning that even the phenomenal deterrence it does have comes with limits. That goes for Russia's huge nuclear deterrent and also for Russia's phenomenally massive conventional warfare deterrent.
It's a lesson for all of the nuclear states: the ultimate deterrence nukes give you only comes into play when your enemies are totally annihilated and you with them.
Russia is also learning that despite its huge conventional war deterrence capability that deterrence doesn't work against deranged people. It also doesn't work against states that are captives of decision makers, either domestic or other countries, who maximize their own gains no matter if that destroys the state at issue.
Consider that Ukraine as a nation state has been destroyed, even far beyond the tearing into pieces and exodus of millions of Ukrainians as a result of the US destroying Ukraine as a single, coherent state in 2014. Any rational person who has a real interest in not destroying their own countries would look at the Russian response to the US blowing off Russia's ultimatums in late 2021 and early 2022 and would be seriously deterred from not following the path the US took.
But decision makers in the US weren't deterred by the possibility that Russia would respond with force because for the US the war in Ukraine wasn't a bug, it was the desired feature. The US couldn't care less if everybody in Ukraine dies so long as that permanently cuts the EU away from Russia, makes abject vassals of the EU states, and enriches the US from energy and weapons sales.
Russia cannot use military force to deter the US from such adventures because the resulting general war, even if it remained conventional, would derail Russia's otherwise spectacular development.
Russia also cannot deter a corrupt junta in Kiev that stands to make billions personally and which does not care if the entire population of Ukraine is erased. That's the toxic magic of having a handful of totally corrupt leaders who can take advantage of a vicious, armed minority that has become committed to a deeply psychotic ideology (psychotic because everything about the ideology is made up).
That's the sort of thing that got entire countries full of people killed during the religious wars in Europe, or nearly an entire continent full of people killed when a handful of Nazi leaders who were intoxicated with personal power entranced the German nation with Nazi ideology and Aryan myth. You can only deter such people by killing them.
As with the religious wars that slaughtered people in Europe for centuries, that might also be the only way to deal with the deranged ideologues who have seized power in most EU states.
They, too, are ready to kill their people (and, at a minimum, impoverish them) to stay in power, to expand their careers, to continue the good life of flying in private jets to elite confabs and staying in hotel palaces waited on hand and foot. The coupling of deranged ideologies with extreme avarice and narcissism with second rate intellects mixed in seems to assure that almost nobody in power in Europe considers the likelihood that their cities may end up looking like the ruins in Gaza any sort of deterrent.
Keep in mind that while Russia is learning its deterrents have limits, so also the US and the EU are learning their deterrents have limits. Their nuclear deterrent doesn't stop a country like Russia from waging conventional war, and their conventional deterrent doesn't either. They are dismayed to learn that they have no economic deterrent against a country which is both self sufficient and which has a more durable international economy than they do, by virtue of so many of the world's countries having no replacement for Russian resources.
Whether the West or anybody else thinks Russia has any red lines at all doesn't really matter. Russia will keep doing what it is doing, and it will defeat the West in Ukraine. It will also erase Ukraine's nazi leadership, and, quite likely completely remove the nazi state of Ukraine, with whatever structure that replaces Ukraine being something that Russia and not the west chooses.
Russia is playing the long game. It is developing itself as a country and as an economy looking ahead a full century or more. It doesn't matter to Russia if, as a matter of soothing the need for revenge that it has to wait a few decades to well and truly revenge itself on the US, the EU, and every vassal that has committed an act of war against Russia, like supporting the nazis in Ukraine.
Russia doesn't really care what people in the West tell each other in the interim. If they want to tell each other "yeah, we're really on top now..." that's fine with Russia. Let them bark at each other while Russia carefully builds its position and develops together with other like-minded countries. Russia, India and China now make up three of the four largest *real* economies in the world. That's an astonishing rise for all three considering where they all were just 30 years ago.
What the conflict in Ukraine *has* taught Russia in terms of deterrents is that it is mistake not to lance the boil, cut out the cancer before the tumor takes over the entire body. Russia didn't have the strength to do that in 2014, but it does now. If the US tries any more regime change operations right on Russia's border, I think Russia would intervene actively at a far earlier stage.
As much as the west has unrealistic victory expectations for Ukraine, what exactly is the definition of victory for russia? Russia cannot force a general surrender from kiev, and cannot occupy the whole country. I expect this war to last years personally
Remember the China BRICS Peace Plan - you do not force a surrender - this is not WWII
You make peace-that is how you win a war, military victory followed with peace making
That's how this war will end, that and the accompanying BRIS SCO EAEU defeat of the EUUS imperialisms adventures and 'rules'
NATO is already looking like a done dog, the US is lost in space hallucinating Dead Presidents,
The money people are keener for China money than for anything else - if China is all the richer for peace in the Ukielands , then.....great!
Very good comment, although I disagree with some of it.
"Russia cannot force a general surrender from kiev, and cannot occupy the whole country." Respectfully disagree on both. Russia has the "military-technical" (love that description, from Russia's December 2021 ultimatum to the US...) power to kill every last soldier Kiev puts into the field.
At a certain point when there is too great an imbalance in force, the losses for the weaker protagonist rise asymptotically with proportionately fewer losses for the stronger protagonist. That tipping point can come with very little notice and then, suddenly, a conflict becomes a rout, basically a hunting down and slaughter of survivors by the prevailing party. Kiev's field armies are nearing that tipping point, and, unlike the West's narrative, they are reaching that tipping point playing the role of the weaker protagonist.
Talk by nazi creeps lie Budanov of Kiev being able to continue a war until 2044 if it conscripts 16 year olds is vicious nonsense. Without the substantial framework of 100,000+ man field armies such child forces tend to disintegrate into disjunct pieces that can be hunted down and slaughtered.
That's what both the US and the USSR did to the Hitler Youth in the closing months of WW2, and what Marshall Zhukov did to the Banderist Nazi guerrillas in Ukraine after WW2.
Can Russia occupy the whole country? Yes, relatively easily.
The provinces in Ukraine not yet a part of Russia can be roughly divided into three types: Somewhat more than a third have sufficiently many ethnic Russians and native Russian speakers that they would breathe a sigh of relief if the war ended with them becoming a part of Russia. Much less than a third are hard core nazi homeland where a significant part of the population, 10% to 20%, would have to be policed with great attention and technical efficiency to prevent terror attacks by the 5% that are such die-hard nazis they would prefer to die along with their children than live within Russian territory.
The remaining provinces are a mix of people that used to be overwhelmingly ethnic Russian and pro-Russian but which now include a significant number of people who have been swayed by ten years of massive, unrelenting, continuous Western and Kievan Nazi propaganda into thinking that "Ukraine" has existed for a thousand years instead of just coming into being in 1991, and who are Russophobic. That's mostly the youth, which haven't known anything in the last ten years, the ten years they grew up from children into young adults, than Kievan and US propaganda. But those provinces also tend to be apolitical and are full of people, again, mostly the youth, who just want the war to stop because they don't want to be the last person dragged to the front and killed in some miserable muddy landscape reeking of death and full of shredded trees and human body parts.
Those provinces won't be centers of Nazi terrorists but will just go along with whatever happens so long as they can go back to posting idiotic videos to each other on Tik Tok.
The above bears on your key question:
"what exactly is the definition of victory for russia? " Russian spokespeople will usually refer people asking that question to Putin's speech at the beginning of the special op: Russia's objective is to de-nazify and de-militarize Ukraine and to ensure that it never can pose a threat to either Russia or to ethnic Russians in Ukraine. But that leaves so much unsaid about what Russia considers to be the end game that accomplishes those objectives.
If you look at the deal Russia was willing to do in Istanbul in March of 2022, an acceptable definition of victory would not have included de-nazification, because it would have left the nazi-dominated Kiev junta in power. It also would not have de-militarized Ukraine because it would have allowed them to keep a significant army. It was basically a slightly stronger form of Minsk.
If you look at the deal offered earlier this year, it would have left Ukraine in existence, although the provisions in that offer that were ignored by the West would have required extremely strong guarantees of neutrality. But that deal, I believe, is no longer available to the US or Kiev.
I don't see how Russia can achieve its core objectives of eliminating Ukraine's ability to be a threat to Russia or to ethnic Russians without taking over all of Ukraine. I think Russia's leadership (based on what Medvedev says) feels the same way. They're just still saying that some partial existence for Ukraine is still possible because they know that the nazi-junta will keep rolling out atrocities that will take that off the table. I don't think Russia is in any mood, under any circumstances, to trust any Western "guarantees" about Ukraine.
The Kiev junta is a dog that has to be put down. It could be that Russia occupies all of Ukraine as a protectorate and then after a lengthy period (decades) gives it successively more autonomy and then finally some complete independence of some part of it that has proven it is now rehabilitated, sane, and free of foul Western influence. But as we've seen with Finland, Sweden, Germany, and Switzerland, promises of neutrality made even after the catastrophic destruction of WW2 don't last. So maybe that's a game Russia won't ever play and will just deal with the situation by occupying Ukraine, cleaning out all the nazis by force, and then if the West doesn't like that, fight the West in general war.
"I expect this war to last years personally" - I agree. I think the tipping point for Kiev will come relatively quickly. After a year or two of attrition and decreasing ability to launch even terrorist attacks like the Kursk invasion, there will be an asymptotic collapse.
But after that it will take five to ten years to hunt down all of the nazi terrorists that will continue to launch terror attacks. I expect many will move to Poland or other rabid Russophobe countries, and if they continue terror attacks from those countries Russia will use military technical means to demonstrate there are no safe havens for such terrorists. If that brings general war with NATO countries, Russia I think will be ready for that.
Ultimately, I think we're in for decades of intermittently cold and hot war between a declining West and a rising Russia and Rest of the World. Ultimately I think the declining economies of Europe will bring the biggest pressure on EU states to drop the Russophobia and start playing sensibly, throwing the Ukrainian terrorists they host under the bus, in order to get a better connection to China's economy and to Russia's resources.
Much gratitude for the usual insight and comment. Cheers,
I wholeheartedly agree with you on every point AND you are able to express it much more eloquently than I ever could.
Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. Additionally, the West's willingness to intervene in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya shows they act when deterrence isn't a factor.
I recall a sense of disappointment in the Iraqi military for not under the guise of laying telecommunications cabling along the desert road from Kuwait and Iraq planting massive quantities of explosives and white sulfure, to be detonated as a welcome to Iraq surprise for the Coalition of the Willing (to murder half a million Iraqi children).
Yep. Russia keeps getting embarrassed and yet the continue to fight a pitter patter weak smo while their citizens and soldiers keep getting hit
Russia keeps getting embarrassed in the minds of people who don't really know how wars, economies and politics work.
The US embarrassed the Viet Cong, Taliban, Syrians, all the way to losing those colonies!
No they're getting embarrassed because they let their airfield and aircraft get destroyed. The Black Sea submarine Rostov-on-Don sunk, kursk embarrassment, and now belgorod. That's just the last week. While they've done zilch
Everything can happen on the war with an enemy that can shoot back and target your rear. That includes airfields with stationed aircraft.
Incursion into Kursk oblast is hardly an embarassment. AFU uses mostly wheeled vehicles in this attack and are simply moving on the roads quickly. Right now most of the vehicles are taken care of and Russian Army tightnened the grip. So let the safari begin. And yes, it is not possibly to prevent such incursions entirely, you can't fill such a long border entirely with fortifications.
"Rostov-on-Don" was not sunk. From where did you get this info?
What's about Belgorod? AFU got decimated and rolled back with high casualties.
They are currently evacuating belgorod because ukraine is about to do the same there that they did in kursk. And Looks like Ukrainians are now in Sudzha - if we assume that this video is from today as per geroman, a pro Russian account
Please provide me credible source and not some moron's thoughts.
""Zilch"" Have you been drunk for two years? perhaps you were locked in a cellar? Or is it simply ignorance? They have eliminated over half a million nazis and destroyed $150 billion dollars worth of nato equipment. I think most sane people would agree that's not zilch. Nato couldn't even defeat the taliban, who had no air force or artillery.
Putin and Russia still playing patty cake smo
Stop. The casualties and embarrassment in the West are used as propaganda. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. Yes, deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also more embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world.
THIS RUSSIA-UKRAINE HAS GIVEN MANY COUNTRIES IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH THAT THEY CAN STAND UP TO THE WEST-ESPECIALLY THE USA. AND MORE ARE TURNING TO MAKING DEALS AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH RUSSIA
That submarine was fully repaired couple months ago. Not just from the damage, but from conditions it was in repair bay in first place. Considering you don't know that, I question your sources and judgement on anything regarding the SMO
Oh you funny little Germ you... LOL... Chip
I'm afraid not. Logistics rules here. Russia has already cut off their supplies for the most part. It is only a matter of cleaning house now - the end for the Ukies is inevitable.
"Russia has already cut off their supplies for the most part."
Got a link to that?
Yeah, sure, happy to help. Here's the link: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-81124-desperate-for-escalation
Well done
Perfect!
You who would not know a link if it bit you - back to your grave dead troll
Another typically ignorant opinion.
ANY border can be defended, you just have to pay the price in materiel and man-power..
Which is the POINT of a buffer zone, the deeper the zone, the more time to bring in man-power and materiel to meet incursions.
Any AFU still in Kursk Oblast in 2 months will be on the ragged edge of starvation...
probably much earlier than that - you cannot operate for long without logistical support (ammunition, fuel, food) and there is no hope in getting that across in sufficient numbers consistently. there are already reports that AFU recon groups dropping their vehicles (run out of fuel and can not resupply) and proceeding on foot. very much remind me the foot human wave offences of UA a year ago (after they learned that RU does know how to mine the fields), with same results..
That you are admitting that Ukrainian forces will be there in two months says volumes.
Does not mean that AFU will be there in the next 2 months.
Ru AF took too long to invade Sumy, as that would have tied up Ukrainian forces in the region and prevented an invasion of Kursk.
Now the opposite happened, Russian forces are tied up in Kursk and an invasion of Sumy looks unlikely for now. Which is why a quick defeat of AFU is of utmost importance.
This is what weapons are for. If your border is indefensible, you need deterrence. But just having weapons is not sufficient, you also need to balls to use them.
Which has not been the case.
The moment the first shelling of the NPP started back in 2022, a message should have been sent to the Ukrainian elites -- you try this once again, and Iskanders will start taking you out one by one, no matter where you are. Then you do indeed start taking them. For each transgression -- shelling of the NPP, shelling of Donbas civilians, shelling of the border areas, terrorism acts inside Russia, etc.
Two years later not a single one of them has been touched, so of course they feel free to do whatever they want.
The invasion into Russia has now been going on for a week. Putin has been completely MIA other than showing up for a few minutes looking very angry. No address to the nation, no declaration of war, no strikes on Kiev leadership, no nukes on Poland and Romania to stop the flow of weapons. Nothing.
What kind of leadership is that?
Excellent leadership. Russian style. The only responsible adult in a room full of toddlers soiling their diapers while having temper tantrums.
The "excellent leadership" has turned Russia into another Syria.
Israel and the US bomb Syria whenever they feel like, and the Syrian government cannot/does not do anything to stop it.
At this point it is really more of a lack of ability, because they were attrited down to that level over a decade of war, but early on it was actual failure to reenforce deterrence.
Russia is on the same path.
What has the SMO achieved so far?
Russian airfields are bombed by NATO 350 km inside the country, and 100,000 people had to be evacuated on pre-war Russian soil so that they don't get slaughterd by the Nazis.
Those are empiricial facts.
How is that for ensuring the security of the country?
"The "excellent leadership" has turned Russia into another Syria."
Abject nonsense. Like what, you don't have a map handy? Open a map of Russia, or look at a globe. Russia extends about half way around the world in the Northern Hemisphere, over 9000 km.
The current extent of Kiev's incursion into Kursk oblast, already much shrunk, is about 18 km. That's 1/500th of the east/west extent of Russia, and about the same of the north/south extent. It's such a small portion that if you printed a map of Russia on a letter-sized or A4 sized sheet of paper you almost can't mark it without marking too big a region because the width of most pen and marker lines is too wide.
Russia as a country is completely untouched. It's not like Syria at all. It's a place with rising real incomes, rising life expectancies, a solidly first world country with great medical care, superb culture, wonderful education, a booming economy and really outstanding quality of life. Saying that Russia is another Syria is an abjectly stupid comment that shows you know nothing either about Russia or Syria.
The airfield in Lipetsk was destroyed by an ATACMS/Storm Shadow strike a few days ago
That is 350 km inside Russia, and if they can strike there, Moscow is in range too.
I know the dummies like you are intellectually not capable of grasping what that means, but those are the facts.
Which might be related to the fact that Putin finally showed up a few hours ago with Gerasimov, Shoigu and the rest of the senile boomer gang, and it was from a bunker, not from the usual location.
Exactly as I said: the only adult in the room full of toddler in soiled diapers who are leading the world to nuclear disaster. Western delusional politicians and military are great only with photo-ops and propaganda speeches. You don’t seem to get that cultures and psychology of other nations different from yours. God save the world from the Anglos mentality.
"The airfield in Lipetsk was destroyed by an ATACMS/Storm Shadow strike a few days ago"
Nonsense on both fronts. The airfield in Lipetsk was significantly damaged, not destroyed, and not by ATACMS (which doesn't quite have the range to reach it). Ukraine doesn't have enough Storm Shadows to inflict significant damage beyond a strike here or there that does not change anything at all about the progress or outcome of the conflict. Can you grasp that?
"That is 350 km inside Russia, and if they can strike there, Moscow is in range too."
So what? Kiev shoots at Moscow almost every other day. Russian air defense knocks down almost all the attempts. What does Kiev achieve in doing that? Nothing except wasting Storm Shadow missiles to no military purpose that might have been used to strike military targets that could slow down Russia's steady progress taking over more and more of the territory that nazi junta controls.
The more of its own soldiers Kiev kills by sending them on suicidal terror attacks that have no military purpose but to attempt to bait Russia into a general war with the US, the closer Kiev gets to that fatal imbalance of forces where the conflict tips against Kiev and Kiev's killed in action numbers skyrocket asymptotically while Russia's decline.
That's when Kiev's armies collapse, the nazi elite take to their private jets and fly off to their villas in Switzerland and France, and the West starts arguing about "who lost Ukraine".
@GM
You funny guy! Maybe they kill you last?
Stop. The rest of the world is increasingly turning to Russia for military support, as seen in Niger. I noticed change happening in Congo after Putin's recent visit to the nation.
Yes, Russian deterrence exists. How do we know? The USA and other Western nations avoid officially deploying troops and are cautious about escalating conflicts. The West's willingness to intervene in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya shows they act when deterrence isn't a factor. The articles cited above indicate that many Western countries view this supposed invasion as a failure and a disaster in the making. France's refusal to fight Wagner in Niger also supports this. It's also embarrassing that the U.S. and the West couldn't handle the Houthis in the Red Sea, despite the U.S. supposedly having the most powerful navy in the world. Lastly, if Russia were so weak, why haven't Sweden or Finland joined the fight on the border? They could easily intervene and destroy Russia—perhaps because real deterrence exists in reality, even if it doesn't in your fantasies.
That's not how it works. Russia has been building legal fundament for their actions. By eliminating leaders of Ukraine it will show others (not the West) that Russia does not follow its own principles.
And do you really think that decision making figures are in Ukraine now?
Anyone in the Kremlin who is primarily thinking about legalities right now must be immediately lined up against a wall and shot for high treason.
Because the other side is most definitely not thinking about legalities, thus you placing those above eliminating the enemy means you are sabotaging the survival of your own country.
Did you read what I write? I did not say it was for the West (or Ukraine). All Russia's actions are being scrutinized and analyzed by other neutral or friendly countries in the world, primarily Global South.
It is a long term strategy and military objectives of SMO are not the only things that should be taken into account by Russia.
This Kursk incursion does not endanger Russia in the slightest, all is in control.
Well said
Intelligent. Something you clearly lack.
Russia is currently destroying Ukraine's most elite troops in KUrsk. As the article cited mentions, Ukraine is risking the culmination and potential end of their army. If Russia is so vulnerable, why haven't Sweden or Finland joined the fight on the border? Please, wake up to reality.
if you count killing AFU by thousands now (in just DAYS) as 'no response from Moscow' I do not know what to tell you...
I get it , sky is never blue, grass is never green, Russia does not ever respond 'enough' (even when it does with massively overwhelming force) - I think it is hard to go through life with such degree of depression and pessimism...
Please, enough of this "death by thousands". If the AFU was really taking those casualties this war would be over.
RuAF is still fighting in the far east of Ukraine, far from the river, capturing major cities is out of the question. Yes, small towns and villages are being taken - upon ruin and destruction.
And as others have pointed out, Z and his buddies are having a very easy time of it, not worried about their safety, whereas Putin has assassination attempts on him and bombing and killings happen in Russia regularly. Or regularly enough.
over a thousand a day , each day, every day in dead and wounded
and the whole sky is falling - please stop with this stupidity.
everyone (other than paid UA shills and some crazed 'all is lost' manic-depressive types who should turn of enemy propaganda) sees that war is being won and won decisively by RU. loss ratios, production, movement on the ground, morale, EVERYTHING is HUGELY in Russian favor.
Do you see RU citizens being press ganged by nazi goons on the street to 'serve' (like UA Nazis do) ? Do you see RU citizens burning anything related to mobilization (like UA do)? What about massive outages country wide in Russia (like in UA) does that happen? What about massive rocket strikes with hundreds of ballistic missiles, do you see this hitting Omsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk? No, no, no, no.
You keep writing like UA troops are storming MKAD, UA air force is fighting near Vladivostok and UA storm troops are near Murmansk. Stop, this is not the case. Relax, breath out, think. and the whole 'very easy time of it' and similarly BS.
Look the Rada gathers frequently to rename another street in the name of Bandera or his cronies. And yet they remain safe. It is not necessary to kill Z, when a strike on the Rada as a response to these events could send a powerful message to Kiev.
Even a massive, indiscriminate barrage on Kiev would be sufficient. This sound bad but it works. My great grandfather lived in German occupied territories and told us that every time a Partisan killed a Wehrmacht soldier, 10 civilians would be killed. This was enough to cause villagers to dislike Partisans and try to avoid them. Enough damage and chaos in Kiev would be enough to cause the civilians to start calling for an end to the war.
You're focusing on a few isolated issues, but you're overlooking the broader, more significant developments that are causing a wave of change across the world:
1. Russia has withstood the West's economic warfare.
2. They are acquiring more territory.
3. Ukraine's economy has been destroyed.
4. Germany is on the brink of or already in a recession.
5. Germany is experiencing deindustrialization.
6. There's a wave of instability across Europe.
7. The Ukrainian population has been devastated.
8. France is losing its assets in Africa.
9. The UK is facing a recession.
10. Japan's economy is suffering.
11. South Korea has real, heightened concerns over North Korea.
12. Growing concerns over the RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA ALLIANCE.
13. THE USA and the West's failure to address the Houthis in the Red Sea
14. Russia gaining soft power/capital social standing (I never imagined that this could happen again)
"I think it is hard to go through life with such degree of depression and pessimism..."
I suppose you prefer comforting lies?
All you say is lies
i prefer not to be manipulated
Anytime, anyone, anywhere, is trying to make you act based on emotional response, you are being manipulated and about to be taken advantage of. Why allow this?
Always check your information sources (information hygiene), always understand their limitations and/or biases.
separately the whole 'all is lost and always lost' is a mental disease - what is now called bipolar disorder or in medical terms manic-depressive illness. why succumb to it by injecting utter informational trash that is now pouring from UA sources?? Relax, breathe, take a walk outside, unplug from internet for 3 days, move on. Take care of yourself, of your health, physical, mental, and emotional.
for the scenario/article discussed, the situation of Kiev junta regime forces is so bad that their clumsy attempts to show 'wins' stink of desperation. they are not even trying to be believable! fake photos, fake 'victories', fake 'captures' , fake everything. why bother with this? I do not think anyone who followed this conflict over 2.5 years can take anything coming out of Kiev seriously, they lie pretty much all the time.
Russia has always been geologically vulnerable. Being the biggest country in the world with rhe population of Japan has drawbacks
That's the truth of modern war between large nations. If the US wanted to guard the border to Canada with the world's largest standing army, it could only consistently protect the border of North Dakota.
How porous a border is dependent upon terrain. Ukraine is the flatland entrance every Western power has used to invade Russia in history, from what I know. Hence no NATO in Ukraine is vital to Russian interests.
Technically and legally Ukraine is a part of Russia. It was given autonomy under condition that it never join NATO and remain a neutral state between Russia and the aggressive warmongering West.
NATO would take St P in 3 days as all Russian borders to NATO are unprotected as Russia have all its military resources in Ukraine. I thought Putin said the NATO threat was imminent.
It's the "familiar desperation" as the Russians say about such attacks from losing chess positions...The Ukrainians have been smoking their own weed too much...They will be ejected with severe losses, or surrender when they run out of fuel, which would be more humane....
That's desperate cope.
The point here is to establish precedents. Two of them, both extremely unfavorable to Russia.
1) ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes on Russian airfields are OK. Clearly they are -- because there has been no response. Which is devastating -- it means that those can one day be swapped with strategic nuclear warheads and Russian early warning system will not detect them as a launch-on-warning threat. Especially the cruise missiles -- ballistics you can kind of guess what the targets are from the trajectory, but cruise missiles fly low and you just don't know that, so the moment they cross the border, you are supposed to launch the nukes towards Europe and the US, because if you didn't, one day you will get a decapitating first strike. The nukes didn't fly so the precedent has been established.
2) Russian can be subject to full scale invasion with hundreds of units of armor, tens of thousands of solders, and a combined arms operation, by NATO, and there will be no response targeting NATO. What does that mean? That Finland can invade Karelia, Japan can take the Kurlis, Poland can take over Kaliningrad, etc.? What is to stop them?
If you have imposed on yourself a ban on the use of nukes, then you effectively don't have nukes. And your enemies can proceed as if you don't. Then you are just another Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc., only bigger. But the outcome will be the same.
chill and stop listening to voenkurwas - 'ten thousands of soldiers' 'hundreds of units of armor' is all BS. turn off the ципсо 'all is lost' TG channels. what RU is doing now is exactly what is stopping/deterring any such attempts. Read Rojers who wrote 'and you call THIS an invasion???' https://alexandr-rogers.livejournal.com/
ATACMS and so forth make as much dent as Nazi V-2!
Yeah, an unguided missile that lands miles away form its target is the same as a modern PGM that takes out your whole ammunition depots and makes your helicopters and planes into swiss cheese on the ground.
Absolutely the same lack of impact.
Oh, and ATACMS can potentially carry nukes too, but let's completely ignore that threat.
Those PGM's won in Afghanistan! Iraq!
Meh.
1) In Afghanistan they had no planes and missiles to lose in such strikes
2) The US has won all such wars that you idiots think it lost -- it always achieves its primary purpose, which is to destroy the countries targeted.
It took ages for Russia to start supplying Western enemies with weapons. Even then the response has been muted. Indeed, Russia could have openly supplied the Palestinians and surged supplies in response to the West surging supplies to Ukraine, this would eventually cause Israel to demand to reduce supplies to Ukraine. And since US is an Israeli colony, then it would be forced to obey.
Indeed, even the supply of weapons to Western enemies has been muted. Iran has done nothing to Israel, Russia has not financed BLM/far right protests within the US, it is not covertly encouraging protests and instability in Britain (as the Soviets would have done). It seems that Russian political leadership is too soft
What nonsense
The OTAN-led Ukrainians sacrificed their Queen on the chessboard, thinking their *haul* from the opponent--a bishop & 4 pawns--would compensate.
The OTAN-led Ukrainians now play without their Queen
Unless DC has some assets in Kiev to deal with Zelensky and any of his like-minded associates (from cronies of his to the nationalists that in some ways are the real muscle of the regime) very quickly, I think in some ways Zelensky has put himself in the driver's seat not unlike Bibi, albeit in a more crude fashion.
Bibi's interest in a war with Iran is at least aligned with the interests of the MIC, and is also at least somewhat containable to just the Middle East at least in theory. Ze on the other hand, threatens what more in DC do not want - an actual hot war with Russia which would rock the table far too much even outside the real risk of nuclear exchange.
I think Zelensky's calculus - as cynical and immoral as it is - holds that NATO will have to do something if any of the nuclear power plants are damaged in such a way to release a Chernobyl level amount of radiation into Europe - doubtless it would actually be worse. Europe would certainly cry out and the reaction from the Kremlin would likely spook everyone, so without a way to make Ze and his gang disappear within 48 hours I think Zelensky is 'right' about how to keep his ship floating even if it is a ghastly plan. He has also likely considered that given the wind direction most of the radiation will damage Russia anyway and this would be enough to cause something to happen in Russia that DC would be forced to react to - even if it is a total shot in the dark predicting what that might be.
Certainly, these are no longer interesting times, but dangerous ones.
DC just has to tell the UK to pull the SAS guards from Zelensky and there will be a natural internal resolution.
If the coke Führer thinks he can threaten his curators I'd expect his bodyguards have other instructions. Besides there's no honour among thieves so his share of the loot is a lucrative target for his curators.
Did not take long for Nancy Antoinette to remove Joe from the chessboard--and the compliant media stayed mum.
DJT "took a bullet for democracy"--and the compliant media stayed mum
Ditto w/ the Usurper of Kiev
I'm not suggesting that the gesticulating eyebrow-waggling Speaker Emerita will personally helm the takedown--she won't--but the elements of the Interagency which protects itself from foreign threats will be on the Usurper of Kiev like a strong immune system cracking down on bacteria: zapped
I doubt US will ever allow seizure of assets of their favourite puppet. They have very good record of failed stooges keeping their loot and living in US till their death. There is purpose for that - once you break that trust, you will never get another willing idiot
If only consequences figured in the calculations. And as always the US and UK claim not to have any prior knowledge of recent events, it was all the coke fuhrer's fault.
I dunno, Ghani is alive and well and enjoying his loot in the UAE or wherever he is holed up.
I don't see him being a loose cannon like Zelensky and his nazi henchmen.
Saakashvili was, and he'd be free and alive if he hadn't gone back to Georgia like a tomfool.
Indeed. The Clown only knows of optics and public perception. And in there you have the root of self-deception. They pulled the tricks of Bucha and the first ones at Zaporisziazha moving the public and the stupid/evil leaders of the West in to the fold of Russiahaters. They pulled the tricks of Mariupol theater and ”russias indiscrimate bombings of ukrainians cities and villages delibarately killing civilians”. Letting a clown and the Bankova circus drag a 34 million state into full destruction (wait until Russia destroy the last of the energy providers) and doom the remaining people to either be asylants in other countries or face the rest of their lifes in poverty is a crime against humanity.
If the Z regime is escalating without authority, and into the nuclear arena, then I would think his days are numbered. No doubt his demise will be blamed on Putin but my guess would be that others will take decision.
Zelenskii cannot so much as change the toilet paper without authorization.
>Unless DC has some assets in Kiev to deal with Zelensky and any of his like-minded associates (from cronies of his to the nationalists that in some ways are the real muscle of the regime) very quickly, I think in some ways Zelensky has put himself in the driver's seat not unlike Bibi, albeit in a more crude fashion
What are you smoking? In DC they didn't know it was going to happen?
This isn't a Zelensky operation, it is a NATO one. You have regular NATO forces in Kursk now, even if sheep dipped, and the whole invasion is done using NATO communications, satellites, logistisc, weapons, etc.
This is the foundational error most pro-Russian people on the internet are making -- they are still seeing this is a Russia vs. Ukraine war, and so they think that Russia is winning.
But it is not a Russia vs. Ukraine war, it is a Russia vs. NATO war, even worse -- one in which Russian people (most Ukrainians are that) are used to fight Russia, so NATO doesn't have to expend its own forces. Once you understand that, you will see that Russia is losing very badly at the moment, and the only way that can be turned around at this point is strategic nuclear strikes on NATO in Europe. For a full wipeout of all the countries between the Atlantic and Russia, with the exception of Hungary, Slovakia and the Balkans, and perhaps you don't strike France and the UK because they have nukes (but if you can take those nukes out, you absolutely do annihilate them). Then you dare the US to strike with nukes, which if they have any sense in DC, they won't do, and that will be the end of it -- the buffer will be the radioactive wasteland in the middle of Europe and Scandinavia, which Russia should quickly occupy after that, especially Scandinavia, and that is how you ensure security.
It has gotten to that point.
It didn't have to be that way, but the other options are largely foreclosed because deterrence was not enforced. Of course, there was always the option of striking Western elites with precision strikes, without destroying their cities, but by now they probably have nukes ready to launch from shipping containers and other hidden installations all around Europe, so you have to go for a full wipeout with megaton-range weapons. That option would have been effective early in the war, but Putin is in the business of protecting Russian elites, not Russia, so that was unthinkable (because Russian elites still want to be part of Western elites, plus if you start taking out Western elites, they might return the favor; better to have the peasants slaughtered by drones instead while you yourself are looking for a deal where there can never be one).
If these really were sheep-dipped NATO forces, it would easy enough to find out.
Rather, no need to put valuable NATO troops so directly in harm's way when there are plenty of Ukrainian conscripts left.
Nah. Nuclear strikes are not necessary, yet. What is necessary is tit-for-tat. West supplies Ukraine? Ok. Palestinians suddenly get tanks and missiles and start striking Israeli bunched up, parked tanks.
Russian territory is struck with ATACMS? Palestinians strike the Knesset with long range missiles that were "lost due to corruption".
Russian territory is struck with storm shadows? Houthis strike an American carrier with ship buster missiles.
Ukraine does a cross border raid? American BLM protestors suddenly show up armed to their next protest. Far right protestors start getting more violent in the US.
Ukraine invades Kursk? An American politician gets killed on his way home from work.
Poland supplies Ukraine? "Ukrainians" within Poland suddenly get violent and start pogroms on locals.
This is how you properly deter. The message is loud and clear and will be enough to show you also have teeth and aren't afraid to use them.
You don't get it at all.
1) How are the Palestinians going to get those weapons? They are fully encircled.
2) Launching proxy wars away from the West or stoking unrest inside it does not in way restore deterrence.
Right deterrence has been completely lost. Russian can be invaded, bombed, have heavy missiles fired at it, anything, and the Kremlin has established the precedent that it will just take it because they are "the responsible adults in the room". Well, what follows then? More of the same and even worse. Because there are no consequences.
But if you have gotten to the point where they are invading you and bombing you, the only way to restore deterrence is to bomb them on their own territory. Directly that sufficiently hard so that they never think about it again. But at this point things have gotten so out of hand, that "sufficiently hard" is already above the nuclear threshold. Simple as that.
1) Palestinians have access to the sea. And there are tunnels through Egypt. Plus this should've happened ages ago. Russia had plenty of time.
2) Having the West look bad when Houth's strike a US carrier group with Russian made missiles is sufficient. Stoking unrest is enough of a message to the Elites to cool down. That is whom the message needs to be addressed to.
Bombing them on their own territory starts a war with NATO and Russia must then fight on two fronts. Even the US is avoiding direct war which is why they use proxies. Which is why the method I suggest is most effective. The US will know that suddenly violent BLM protestors and far-right groups in the US are funded by Russia. Russia can tell them "lay off Ukraine and this goes away, or we escalate, do you want that?"
But yes, you are right - the lack of consequences leads to this.
You truly live in a fantasy world. Go outside and breathe fresh air. You have lost all perspective.
The radiation would move eastward not into Europe. Russia would be negatively affected more than anyone else if Z were able to destroy one of these NPP's... Chip
Zelensky "coeval of Netanyahu": I think you misspelled "coevil".
((Zelensky)) has the same concern for Ukrainians as ((Netanyahu)) has for Palestinians.
I think both are applicable. ;O)
Logistics, logistics, logistics. How did 404 plan to supply this mad raid? Preventing an insane raid is impossible, since sane military analysts expect their counter parts to also be sane. But when dealing with insane idiological opponents, you end up suprised when a suicide raid occurs. Russian military is now mopping up, they had sufficient reserves to handle this, and by the end of the week the only outcome will be more dead opponents. To use a chess analogy, a rook was sacrificed to take a pawn. A daring raid, with disproportionate losses. Idiotic.
The more interesting observation is the western medias naivity in interpreting this raid. Honestly, can they really be that clueless?
Yes, they really are that clueless.
One must remember the low-information voters for whom they produce their drivel and write their budgie-cage liners. The movie "Anchorman" was probably if anything not harsh enough in depicting the mental midgets who report the news.
One theory is that they planned to do a mad dash to Kurchatov and immediately capture Kursk NPP as their intelligence likely indicated Russian conscript defenders in the area were weak. But there's some reports that some conscripts fought like lions and ruthlessly repelled AFU advances.
This is my take, they intended to capture Kursk NPP and sequester there while holding the world hostage; the idea being they wouldn't depend on reinforcements and supply lines if they captured that dangerous prize.
And they still try to, despite being hunted down and eliminated one strike team after another. Lost seven BTRs in just one encounter, three Strykers in another, yet they still roll in more reserves and push towards ever so slightly.
Push towards the Ukrainian border & quicker than slightly. God knows where you've gotten your info from. Go on the official Russian MOD daily briefing. They've been bang on correct, in fact very conservative in the daily figures they've given up to now. The Ukrainians are being wiped out in industrial numbers right now in Kursk. They've not moved anywhere for days except backwards. Since Putin announced those that invaded Kursk were officially implimenting a terrorist operation & is in no part of the SMO. Basically the Ukrainians in Kursk have 2 choices. First one is to surrender, 2nd one is certain death. Only prisoners are the ones that will surrender. Russia has sent in abundant reserves. Heavy bombing, heavy artillery 24/7, constant drone attacks & 3 battalion of the best trained & most experienced men
Out of 12 thousand Ukrainian & foreign soldiers that went into Kursk. At least 8 thousand will be remaining in Kursk forever. That's up to now, any Ukrainians trying to withdraw are being picked off by FPV drones, Any that managed to dig in. Are being attacked 24/7 by heavy bombs & artillery.
And destroying Sumy rear with multiple FAB for days, these losses from Sumy and the other side of the border are NOT counted in daily losses of both sitrep from MOD (front and Kursk CTO).
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1473-kontr-nastup-interaktivnaya-karta-boevyh-deistviy-na-ukraine
According to G Doctorow who has intel very deep in Mosow, they(Kremlin) are evacuating populations not only for their security but because they will then wipe out the all area eventually with small tactical nuke, this is RU territory they can do what they want and it will give a strong message to ukronato don't even dare to try again, next one is for you, starting with decapitating Kiev junta that way as a starter. They are just awaiting big weapons from Central RU not to take away anyone from Donbass front.
Although a tactical nuke always seemed a stretch, there is indeed a use for it that I just realized. An aerial explosion will burn out all EW and AA components that Ukies brought up in such numbers. Dunno who or how reliable Doctorow is, but point in fact: both Russians and Ukies are evacuating the area.
It was written more than a day ago about Ukies who got relatively grounded only now, with occasional fire teams on light armor still appearing here or there to probe the defenses. It's still not solid enough to be called frontline, but Russian reinforced positions are now packed densely enough for another major breakthrough to be very unlikely. Ukie reserves on the other hand still keep rolling in, mostly just to die, but they're digging in.
Digging in is the stupidest option.
Yep, some people report that conscripts are in such high spirits that put veteran fighters to shame. They took that very personally and enthusiastically. That Ukie report about them running and immediately surrendering - I can picture a hopeless case or two, but overall, they've performed splendidly despite lacking heavy weaponry. Unsung heroes that allowed the reserves to start spilling into the area.
The sheep-dipped OTAN mercs dashing toward Kursk w/ the *Ukrainians* were not prepared for the tooth & nail ferocity of conscripts standing as the first line of defense & sacrifice for their homeland
The sheep-dipped OTAN mercs have no visceral way of comprehending this
And hopefully Kursk Oblast will be their final resting place.
They are probably ''fake mercenaries'',but real NATO in ukro uniforms, like 'légion étrangère' from France where many former ukros and anti VP former Russians are part of, which gives in the case of Macron 'plausible deniability', but I really don't know if countries like Poland or UK have also these kind of 'foreign legions'(legal not gladio or mercs)? Expect some freedom fighters to be sent soon, aka ISIS, Al nusra and co..other types of nazis working for zion.
Good video from a guy who really knows Russia perfectly (he lives 6 mths in Petersburg and 6 mts in Brussels), probably the last 'kremlinologue' on this planet and a very decent US citizen.
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: Is Russia About to EXPLODE with Fury?
https://www.youtube.com/live/M7O92-RV5Cs?si=bnqKmDK-FKGTK9G3
J Baud in EN:
https://www.youtube.com/live/SJW5hhzOsj0?si=fFVyH-3m1Nd77nVr
and also in EN
https://www.youtube.com/live/Ltpw4F_SviY?si=yz-hhaf9R9_-GilL
IAEA: No trace of drones at the cooling tower in Zaporizhzhya After inspecting the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found no signs that it has been hit by drones.
The people from the IAEA also say that they consider it unlikely that the fire at the Russian-occupied facility started at the foot of the cooling tower.
Alaudinov is doing an excellent job: he has charisma, good view of mil situation, patriotic but able to critic at the same time (not à la Prigo at all), diplomatically, good at com + P R but not fake P R à la kievites fake news,this new Gen will go very far at the top of Russia future, he will take Kadyrov role over (who will more concentrate on his Oblast). The kind of guy with real combat experience not a MOD general only in name but in acts. Maybe I'm wrong but I would bet on him to become a hero. Hope God will keep him alive he deserves it.
Not clueless. Innovative and mad as hell but it is good optic in the West and they could have managed to take the Kurchatov plant for a brief moment. That would have caused some ”panic” in Kreml.
Of course you are spot on regarding western media. They love the spectacular, the daring and the lore of a single man doing heroic deeds. The West is a gigantic drama with shows going on all-over the spectrum of society. Only for brief moments there are afterthought or crsip analysis of the Reality.
I tend to agree but even some of the mad men writing in the Daily Telegraph (a pro NATO/Ukraine propaganda rag) are framing this as militarily foolish but a massive embarrassment to Russia and Putin in particular. But then they seem to childishly reduce everything in the war to a battle of personalities.
Sure there are clear-eyed people in the west, but they're trapped in this Hollywood script that every WWII war movie has brainwashed them into. If you're a deviant in the west, you're literally out. No job, divorce and friends absent.
US political elites were the mostly ignorant, trust fund C and B students in college who found History boring and went into "business" or got free passes to a "law degree". They are unimaginative, very selfish, and lack any appreciation for foreign cultures and peoples. They suck so bad it's hard for me to put into words.
The AFU could fire a pistol into a tree in a park in Kiev and the likes of The Telegraph would report it as an "embarrassment to Putin".
And c'mon, let's face it--embarrassment is a world-beating LOC strategy. The burning Strykers & bombed-out Marders served up so much embarrassment that Russia's capitulation is now a foregone conclusion. It's getting FABulous along the treelines near Sudzha--as in FAB100s--but let's remember how embarrassment has now tipped the scales
Raytheon is now *ramping up* some more embarrassment
Slapping together a hodgepodge of troops in whatever vehicles were available to perform an old-fashioned Razzia is the nadir of innovation, and reeks of MI-6 reading one too many "Boys own WW2 adventures"....
Chevauchee, that is all.
Problem is their horses are dead and they aint going to make it back. They will regret shooting up civilian cars when they were trying to evacuate.
Maybe Charli XCR will compose & perform the song for the next 007 film--?!!?
Brat Bond
Is Charli XCR the older clone of Charli XCX??
[Not that I would be able to tell the artistic (sic) difference...]
What do you expect from a population for which Marvel movies are the highest grossing entertainment properties?
Well since 2022 the Western MSM has shown they are more interested in narrative creation than truth. Just give them an angle and they will create the spin. It has just gotten to the point where their credibility is totally spent and the question must be asked if they are truly clueless or merely delusional though the line between each is so thin. It can also be considered they will follow their masters to whatever depth holding on to the narrative spun to the very end.
At first the raid appeared to me to be a spoiler attack. Now, it's just another expensive failure, a zugzwang.
For the NAFO types that occasionally comment here, Russia could have prevented, or at least, reduced the already marginal effectiveness of the raid by building up it's border defenses years ago at the expense of destroying the Bandera army in the disputed territories oday.
Great rundown, as usual. Zelensky's Samson option: go for a nuclear power plant. I don't know what the technical vulnerabilities are. I hope they are limited. The Empire will not go gentle into that good night. Never has, never will. Maybe the pundits are confused, but the notion that the Empire didn't know about, and approve, this Hail Mary is unbelievable.
OTAN knew & approved--but in the swiftly disastrous aftereffect OTAN cannot permit itself to cosign the check, as it were
Kirby: "We're TRYING TO REACH OUT to our Ukrainian partners to get a little more information about their operation." One can only hope that they eventually choke to death on their mendacity.
Here's how the empire's mouthpiece, the nytimes, reports it:
<< Facing a Ukrainian Incursion, Putin Directs His Rage at the West >>
and leads w/ this quote:
Mr. Putin, speaking with security chiefs and regional governors at his residence outside Moscow, *lashed out* at the West [ emphasis mine ] over Ukraine's weeklong incursion into Russian territory. "The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians," he said, repeating his frequent depiction of the 30-month war. "The enemy will certainly get the response he deserves, and all our goals, without doubt, will be accomplished."
This, according to the nytimes, is *lashing out*--?!!?
12 Aug, nytimes
a 4th choice for the poll might have been - fizzle out, as opposed to fizzle out soon..
I picked "dig in permanently" which apparently was an unpopular choice but it should have been worded "dig in and hold for as long as they can".
Dig in, then be filled in. RIP.
Well early on in this piece I formed the idea that it will be necessary for 'the west' (i.e. usa) to kill Zelensky. That'd be good.
One other thing I forgot to mention in article was the recent intelligence that Zelensky reportedly was trying to potentially assassinate Putin/Belousov at the St. Petersburg Naval parade a couple weeks back.
When you couple that (if true) with the ZNPP strike, it really paints a picture of a truly spiraling madman ready to escalate to nuclear war. If this is the case, it would be a very revealing and telling acquittal of the theory that AFU is truly on its last legs in Ukraine.
The thing I find Putin guilty of when it comes to Zelensky and friends is far too much mercy for them. Prigozhin got whacked when he didn't fulfil his end of the bargain. But Zelensky and friends? Constantly far too much leeway, won't even kill their families like Israel does.
Your main problem is believing that the smo is about the conquest of ulraine. It is not. If you could zoom way out and carefully examine the big picture things would make much more sense.
Yes. St Petersburg was the plan I think and Russia got the US to call it off.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-why-the-us-forced-ukraine-to?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=835783&post_id=147399327&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=b7hw3&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
At this point, Zelensky is as much in charge of Ukraine as Biden is of the USA. Both are merely figureheads for the real decision makers.
I would have a good hard look at Budanov as the real culprit here, he has that "Himmler Mk2" air about him, and access to all the necessary levers of power.
One figurehead has already gone down--Joe.
Bad time to be an inept figurehead: I mean, the Usurper of Kiev is not getting keener
But the Colombian Nose Candy makes Z *feel* keener/smarter..
The only reason that will happen is if they have someone to replace him (they don’t and can’t) then blame it - as they comically do with everything - on Russia (which will be a VERY hard sell as only a small number of people still believe that crap).
Otherwise, Ukraine will collapse and unconditionally surrender soon after. That’s another Vietnam and they don’t want that.
Zelensky would not be the first gay Jewish western puppet to die in his bunker just before the Russians arrive ...
It's all good except Zelensky deciding anything. This is an intentional Nato attack. The western propaganda assets have changed the narrative. They are clearly heading for negociations thinking that dumb Russia will gently accept their terms. However, to begin with there is no Ukranian legit counterpart to sit down at a table. That only will take weeks if not months to decide. An armistice before November for Biden's credit? Will Russia agree to be dragged into the Nato agenda?
An armistice before November for Biden's credit? - no armistice
Will Russia agree to be dragged into the Nato agenda? - no.
That Russian hospital worker possibly a deep fake?
Yes, strong chance because whenever Russia posts Ukrainian stuff, it's in clear view. When Ukraine posts something negative about Russia, it's always either blurred or people have their faces covered conveniently like in the case of some random soldiers "revolting against Putin", etc.
Right from the get go Ukraine's war propaganda has been a farrago of lies, ditto the NAFO clowns and camp followers. These people are so lazy and inept they can only convince goldfish.
I would agree but unfortunately there are many gullible fools out there that do. The ghost of Kiev and many other imaginary creations.
Snake Island
Well, that's most Americans.
Any detail on losses from the HIMARS strike?
I wanted to fit it in this report, but it simply grew too long. I may cover it with more detail next time. But in general, I think this strike is greatly overplayed, not many losses, maybe a couple dozen at most if not less. The HIMARS strike on column in Kherson 2023 was far, far worse, potentially 50-120 dead if not more. But there's many pieces of evidence that this one wasn't as bad as doomers would love to believe, which I'll try to cover next time, space permitting.
At this advanced stage of the conflict, I am constantly amazed at packed columns of trucks or soldiers travelling en masse. I mean, soldiers should keep at least 20m apart (not 6') and trucks 100m apart. It is not so difficult to do.
This is how military logistics work. If the distance between vehicles is too great - your column will be uncontrollable.
Also factor of time comes in. It will take much longer time to move huge quintities of equipment with many small columns. Compared to few big ones.
What is controllable about a column that is easily decimated?
That si how you operate a large concentration of troops if you want to move them to position quickly. Otherwise your troops arrive gradually and are not able to seal the breach in time, for example.
In short if you have, for example, 10 large columns moving and one of them is hit. But others arrive in time to positons and stop/block/etc. the enemy. Or you have 50 small columns which arrive gradually and fail their objective.
The word 'decimate' means 'reduce by a tenth' not 'redu[c]e by a lot'.
Edit: typo frenzy.
Piecemeal deployments will get more killed than arriving to battle in numbers with a proper formation. I know that it is vogue now to say that the age of "maneuver warfare" has ended, but getting there firstest with the mostest has been a winning strategy for 6000 years of conflict.
No, this is just the "Fog of War" meets someone in higher in the food chain screaming "Get ALL your men there, NOW"...
The commander of the special forces "Akhmat" Alaudinov admitted that Kadyrov soldiers were captured by Ukrainians near Kursk. However, as he says, it is not about his special forces, but about the "Ahmat-Chechnya" battalion🤡
Kozakevich ✅ Subscribe to the channel
Bad enough. Especially considering the fact that Russia military is STILL that incompetent. They didn't think they would use western weapons on their soil. But ukraine called their bluff. Another red line crossed that Russia won't do anything about
That's a good point I didn't actually consider. I wonder if some commander thought "They're not allowed to use HIMARS on our soil, so we should be safe to park here for a few minutes."
May as well had. Had them lined up close together like sitting ducks. What kind of nonsense was that? Russia had their "no using western weapons on Russian soil or else" Red lines. But they figured Russia won't do anything about it so why not
A BM-27 would have been just as bad. I think they just kinda rolled the dice. Civilians were in danger, and Nazis are notorious for how they behave towards enemy non-combatants.
No, as I comment to Alfred, above, this was no more than someone higher on the food chain screaming "Get ALL your men there, NOW"...
And they went, and they were "got".
At this point, proper movement spacing should be a matter of standing orders for ALL participants in the SMO.... but there will always be those who try to impress higher authority with the speed of their obedience, not the speed of their thinking. Worse, there will be authorities who prefer the obedience to the thinking...
Breaking a tacit truce usually backfires on the side that does it.
After they dragged the HIMARS to the parking space in that village stripmall mercifully just across the border, they realized they did not have the right change for the meter.
Ooops, there goes Rabbity. Ooops there goes gravity
The tough thing about being a proxy is that you have to do all the grunt work
Please read some about military logistics. It is a necessity to move in columns. That is the way you operate large quantities of troops.
When I was in military service (logistics), we did not (!) use large columns. We did the same as Napoleon some 200 years before: march on different roads but come together for battle. Of course, I am from Middle Europe, where infrastructure is very dense, so this tactic might be unusable in Eastern Europe. The best men were positioned at intersections and were responsible for ensuring that every different vehicle was going in the right direction—no wireless communication was allowed! Every vehicle had a driver and a navigator.
Military service in peace time is very different from war. There is a high chance of chaos happening if you move separately and gather in one place.
On top of that it is much slower and time is of essence in war.
In peacetime we used long columns, but for war, we trained this different style. Do not forget, the logistic branch is getting the best soldiers. But, by good luck, we never experienced a war time, so maybe Clausewitz is right: Make a plan, the moment you meet the enemy, everything is different to the original plan.
Yes, I see what you mean. However the intensity of this conflict is very high (perhaps the biggest conflict after WW2). And it's a war against an enemy that can hit your rear and execute combined arms maneouvers. So it is a necessity to move in large columns sometimes. To move large mass of troops quickly and efficiently without losing control.
And remember that for each Russian column hit, you get 5-10 Ukrainian columns decimated. Just from this Kursk operation alone.
How do you know that's a red line? Why do you keep thinking that Russia hasn't responded to any supposed red lines? Are you truly slow or just so obsessed that you've lost all perspective?
Do you understand that:
- Ukraine's economy is destroyed.
- Ukraine has lost a significant portion of its population.
- Support for them is truly waning.
- They have lost land and will lose more in negotiations.
- Their electrical system is hanging by a thread, and people are very concerned about the coming winter.
It seems that many people like yourself are either a) bloodthirsty, like so many Westerners, especially Americans and Israelis, or b) ignorant of the human desire to survive even in the face of suffering.
The Ukrainians won't stop until they are forced to or face total destruction. It makes sense—this war is about their survival. So stop speaking as if you understand war and what it means to fight for survival because you can't even comprehend it.
From the Red Sea Front
AA Update – another victory -CSIS Preserving Red Sea Commerce
https://www.csis.org/events/preserving-free-flow-commerce-red-sea-and-beyond-update-fifth-fleet-commander-vadm-george
Update from Fifth Fleet Commander VADM George Wikoff, USN (see Annexe for résumé)
A gloomy report, not well received by the US naval hopists, I mean those who are still indulgent to some extent to US Navy failures
A determined failure on the part of the US Navy to understand the nature of maritime commerce
And that is even before criticising the expense purely military failures committed by their Navy
Nor commenting on the recent AA attacks on commercial shipping (see Annexe)
Even Politico underlines the US defeat and no way out (see Annexe)
This is exactly the same role that Kim plays up in NW Asia (greetings in Annexe)
NB --The role of AA on it’s own but with it’s back gotten by dint of their courage and success, by regional popular support, and one can assume discreet Irani material help
Is identical to the role of Nth Korea in their time zone – stalemate from the go as far as Sth K and Japan are concerned – plus Kim is certain (and the SKs and the Japans know) that Russia will support NK in every possible or plausible fashion, plus China with surrepticiousness if that’s a word
Annexe Quotes and Links
https://nitter.poast.org/mercoglianos
“”The @USNIProceedings and @CSIS hosted @US5thFleet cdr for a discussion on the #RedSea. This clip goes to the heart of the matter.
1️⃣ Good historical perspective with 25 ship attacks from 2016 to Dec 2023 by #Houthi, before the latest series of attacks.
2️⃣ His meeting with 85% of the global industry is probably the ten large container firms and not with all aspects of the industry
3️⃣ What is the definition of 'stability'? Is it a reduction in War Risk as there are methods to get it reduced
4️⃣ VADM Wikoff states there is no spike in inflation...but are he and @CMF_Bahrain looking at freight rates (which have spiked) or port congestion (which has also increased)?
5️⃣ Global commerce has "SELF-HEALED." That is NOT true for tankers, car carriers, bulkers, and many other sectors that don't have excess capacity like containerships.
My concern is that @DeptofDefense, @CENTCOM, and @usnavy do not fully understand the dynamics of global shipping and its facets. For many firms, their diversions are providing needed spikes in rates to offset what was falling revenue.
In the meantime, this has a long-term negative impact on Shippers and consumers who are seeing delays and spikes in cost which is leading to inflation.””
https://nitter.poast.org/NoamRaydan/status/1822051055665856748#m
“Red Sea Update
All the details on the crude oil tanker Delta Blue (IMO 9601235) the Houthis attacked multiple times Thursday and Friday can be found in our updated map below. The tanker, owned by Greece-based Delta Tankers, reappeared in the Red Sea ( AIS on) earlier today sailing northbound. The attacks involved an RPG, USV, and two missiles.
The Delta Blue is laden with a cargo loaded in Iraq's Basrah as I mentioned yesterday in the tweet below. On July 15, the Houthis targeted the Chios Lion (IMO 9398280) owned by Greece-based Stealth Maritime Corporation which suffered minor damage but continued sailing. The tanker was carrying a cargo loaded at the Russian port of Tuapse, and sailing to Asia. See the chart in yesterday's tweet below on Houthi attacks on *tankers* specifically.
Our map also includes the operations U.S. CENTCOM forces have been carrying out over the past days in the Red Sea and Yemen ( when the Houthis are not attacking commercial ships reported by the media, this does not mean it's quiet in the region).
Map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories…
#Shipping #RedSea #Houthis #oott
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/houthi-attacks-russia-linked-tankers
Nor have Russian cargoes been spared, tho’ not very often targeted – which should underline to binary westie readers that the situation is very much more fluid
It is worthwhile noting RF official policy is to support the UN peace process in Yemen and to recognize the Aden government
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08/us-deploys-pathetic-wizard-of-oz-messaging-strategy-to-pretend-it-can-influence-iran-conflict-trajectory.html
By way of contrast Typical alt media US commentary on the general Iran-Isael parameters
NC Yves Smith especially is very US centric
Can only go so far to comment on inherent US shortcomings - and are very afraidafraid of the nuclear bot
Only a tiny comment on the position and influence of Iran's allies, starting with Russia, but also including China
And nothing about AA - which is stupid - AA are very much more important than the westies wish to admit - by their Red Sea success alone fatally have weakened any Israeli or US claims to freedom of action, and by such have greatly increased the economic pain suffered by Israel - see this weeks CNIS
Plus have reminded the Saudis to behave, which it appears they have done
And have, by all accounts the Muslim ‘street’ as the US niks like to say, but which should properly be called the West Asia working class, and yes some influence on outside that area countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia – although Indonesia appears to closely track the RF attitude to the Yemen
This is a common trait in Westie alt press - they are just as US centric as their MSM in comments about the world outside, with only limited exceptions (Conor Gallagher, Nick Corbishley)
As with Nth K they all downplay AA at their peril
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240203-malaysia-the-problem-is-not-the-houthis-its-israels-aggression-against-gaza/
https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/27399/
Politico, even, points out that the US Navy has been held hostage at heavy cost, have wasted arms and boats best saved for other purposes, and all to no vail
Even though Politico fingers Iran as the actor and AA as the proxy, to dress up the defeat, there are in fact no illusions that AA is doing fairly close to as it wishes, which is, after all also fairly close to the aims and intentions of Iranis, as of the other non staters in the area – this is called correlation not causation
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/07/houthi-yemen-defense-iran-airstrikes-00173096
“There is a huge cost” being placed on the U.S. in continuing its mission in the Red Sea, said Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official, including “a real strategic cost to U.S. readiness, to say nothing of the opportunity cost on our ability to project power in the world.” Lord is now a fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington.
“During the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group’s twice-extended nine-month deployment to the Red Sea, U.S. forces fired over 135 Tomahawk land attack missiles, weapons that cost upwards of $2 million apiece, at Houthi targets in Yemen. The ships also launched 155 standard missiles of various kinds, which cost between $2 million and $4 million per missile, to destroy the drones.”
“The F-18 aircraft aboard the Eisenhower also fired 60 air-to-air missiles and 420 air-to-surface weapons during the defense strikes at sea and targets on the ground. The Eisenhower and its escort ships returned to post in Virginia in July, handing off to the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group, which has continued knocking down drones on a daily basis.
The precision anti-ship and air-to-ground missiles that are being used in Yemen are the very type of weapons that would be front and center in any fight with China, “so China’s ultimately the big winner across the board,” Waltz said. “Our fleet is getting worn out. We’re shooting off the missiles we need to defend against the Taiwan scenario
Thx for these links
It's fascinating in particular that the Fleet Commander Wikoff is drilling down into the semantics by asking "What is stability?"
It is very difficult in the Fog of War to thumb through a dictionary for the exact definition of certain words, like "stability." Plus--the 'S' section of the English dictionary has more entries than any other section, so that's a lot of thumbing.
Then there's always the question of which dictionary does one reach for--Webster's? New American? Oxford?
"surreptitiousness," as a word of great portent, carries precise weight here.
VVP's post-inaurguration diplomacy from mid-May to mid-June is bearing considerable fruit