382 Comments

For a good take of the Trump shoot'n, see Larry at SONAR21: https://sonar21.com/my-interview-with-former-fbi-sniper-chris-whitcomb-how-did-the-secret-service-fail-to-protect-donald-trump/

Also , it's great to first in comments.

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That's yesterday's news - let's move on back to the Ukraine war with S's new post

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What? Everything is interconnected. With Trump now , seemingly heading for victory the equation in Ukrainistan will change. I think you gotta take ya meds Joe Jnr....

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yakity yak

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But there really isn't anything more to be said about that assassination set up, beyond the facts that it was a one and done, sitting on the backroom books for when it was really needed. And it failed. (or rather it failed to eliminate Trump but it did take the heat off Biden).

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Why do you insist? The whole thing was a false flag, theater to boost Trump's chance to get into the WH. You say you like theater? Fair enough, but this forum is not about theater 😉

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Sadly, it wasn't. He was clearly going to win, anyway. Stop posting with the adults.

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Yes, it was completely staged. Only a tiny fraction of people understand the extent to which staging occurs. Don't argue with them as they haven't developed their critical thinking to that point. They remain caught in the matrix.

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You're an idiot. Serious, severe idiot. Someone got killed, Canucklehead. Two others, in addition to Trump, were wounded. That was staged, too? I love Simplicius' reporting and analysis but this comment section? Wow.

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Did I hit a nerve? lol

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I'll take his meds. I like meds.

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Helping Ukraine has been great for America…the American oil and gas industry will never permit Trump to force peace on Ukraine. Who do you think owns Speaker Johnson?? Hint—Standard Oil was originally based in his district.

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Yesterday's news is called history. Ignore it at your own peril.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Not this kind of US news no longer, sorry, this is now irrelevant - any significant policy decisions are beyond the scope of this kind of tv chitchat amuse the crowd circus that the US likes to put on show

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True. But none of these articles, comments or blogs are really changing anything either. It is a bit like history. It’s all for interest and intellectual edification. Whether Trump is elected or not will have little impact. But nor do blogs on the war. Nor does voting. It just helps us get prepared for what is happening. That’s all. Which is still useful, by the way. I pay Simplicius and am happy to do so. But I am under no illusions that we are changing anything substantive.

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This is nihilism on the cheap

If you can not think how the general interest discussion debate or education of the majority or even of a minority is useful then you have ostentatiously abandoned hope

It is done on this as on countless other occasions - please let me the first to inform you

But you are nihilist only about others, because here you are plodding down your road, telling us what you think: you supply insignificance to others but not to yourself

This is in a nutshell the problem you westies have - still a half hearted belief in individual freedom of thought and autonomy, while giving up on any possible form of collective education or action

If you could be bothered to get the energy to treat discussion debate and real life seriously perhaps you'd be able to see how differences are made

It might even change your attitudes, who'd 'a thought that (that's britspeak, isn't it, or is it -----who'd 'a thought on it?)

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And American vernacular: who'd 'a thunk it?

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Neoliberal Feudalism is a nihilist who completely misrepresent everything Simplicius said.

Everything he says is a the complete opposite of reality, especially on Russia/Ukraine.

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Thanks for your great comments alway Gerrard. Nihilist libertarian, small government to no government gun carrying sovereign citizen NRA member, well need more be said. Individual over community mindset is strong also.

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If one person wakes up to the Jew problem it is a win.

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"The Jewish Question"

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Is this a surprise that the bloodthirsty Ivo Daalder (the ex-US ambassador to NATO) is Jewish? He “has blatantly called for the immediate gangpressing of all 18-year olds in Ukraine.” He also loves bloviating about special Jewish victimhood during WWII, while totally “forgetting “ about enormous Russian sacrifices. Ivo Daadler is a dishonorable pest of the same kind as the Jewish fascists genociding the Palestinian children and women. Judaic education in action, indeed.

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Actually, I have thought the same thing. Are we marching, protesting, doing anything in the streets? But what good does that do? I do think we do affect the polls. I expect we are being watched and I show them the debate and why they are losing. We affect the street's dropping approval of Biden, and perhaps the rise of Trump, but then he is a Zionist and caused the war on Gaza with Abrahamic Accord. I do not see how Israel can have good relations with any Muslim country after their genocide of Gazans without Trump. Netanyahu goes down, Trump in, will the Palestinians get a nation, or will Gaza end up luxury condos like Miami? These wars are related, if not the same war.

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I trust the Palestinians to handle their "stuff"--and other groups like Ansar Allah & Hezbollah to stand strong

Hamas, an idea, will never die.

Hamas has, down to the beds of their toenails, something Ukraine has never had

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Isn't there an old Chinese proverb something like "The wise study history but ignore the corporate news cycle". Lao Tzu perhaps.

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Yes - exactly

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"Those who cannot remember the news-cycle are condemned to repeat it"--what Santayana never said

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Great

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True, but that was NOT history.

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That video seems to be the most plausible assessment I have seen.

Resonates with anyone who was ever worked in large organisations: a failure of inter agency coordination with guys on the ground not knowing who was who and where each agency’s people were sounds like a good explanation unless conflicting evidence appears. Who wants to order a sniper to open fire to kill if you are not 100% positive that the mystery guy on a roof is not law enforcement? Unless and until the mystery guy opens fire, of course.

The conspiracy theories will continue though.

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yeah, but not on this website....please

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It's all a distraction from many things we should be paying attention to.

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Not knowing who the rooftop person was is still no excuse to not secure the VIP until the facts are known. They left Drumpf exposed.

That sniper on Johnson's Sonar21 made excuse after excuse. he also laughably said the SS is the very best of the very best LOL

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Nobody said it was an excuse. It’s an explanation.

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The miraculously prepared ladder and the miraculously unsecured roof? How did the poor patsy know about these conveniences?

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"it's great to first in comments"

That's the mind set of a troll.

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No , commenting on the post such as you did is actually the actions and mindset of a troll-just to be accurate....

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Very well done without speculation... Chip

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Germany and the rest of Europe should be renamed Tenga or Fleshlight since all they seem to be doing recently is being cocksleeves for the US.

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What do you want from occupied nations. European Council is a colonial administration whose most recent goal is to strangle all local high-tech industry and relocate it across the pond where the masters want it.

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True, Japan was slaughtered by the Plaza Accords and they're still clinging to the GAE.

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The Jew. Just say Jew. A Jew writhe the Japanese constitution after the genocidal firebomb and nuclear terrorism.

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You are a deranged obsessive hateful person

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A Jew was also involved in bombing both Hiroshima and Nagasaki and was proud of this achievement to his last days. Baser was the criminal’s name. You know, the most moral.

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Dhdh. Get help pal.

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Lol that's kinda backfiring already.

I personally know of quite a few German automobile peeps who *gasp* went to smelly bad Chy-na instead.

Probably not too keen on getting robbed or shot at in Hotdog Land.

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Yeah, this hilariously backfires on them because US simply lacks infrastructure and most of all, competence. But up to this point the method was flawless: ignite Europe, and capital flees to America. Who's to blame that the champion got obese and wrecked? Even tax laxation doesn't help anymore, yet still some vassals obediently try.

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Pretty much this. OP's post is funny, but it presumes that Europe has any sort of agency to begin with, that they're capable of acting in their own interests. In fact, European countries are just clients and vassals of the US, who have no say in how they're used.

Also, I discovered recently that the Plaza Accords were responsible for the Lost Decades of Japan, which makes alot of sense. Japan remains under occupation, but they haven't been invaded and subjugated like Europe has. I'm hoping with Cold War II/World War III, the Japanese will break their chains at last.

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The yank should fear the samurai.

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Shinzo Abe would like a word with you.

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The Euroweenie leaders aren't just satisfied with starving themselves of Russian energy and grain.

They are now talking about possibly ripping out ALL the infrastructure that has seeseepee involvement in Euroweenie land, but curiously ignored the fact that MeriKKKan MIC sources 40% of their semiconductors from Chy-na.

Maybe they will go all the way and basically stop using anything and everything with Chinese parts in them, which will send their societies back to the pre-industrial age, which might go well with their insane "green" cult agenda...

But pray tell, how would they make their precious weapons to destroy Russia (and Iran and China)... without industry, or trained manpower, or components, or...

Neocons are so drunk on their sense of superiority that they are absolutely retarded.

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Exactly

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100%.

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🤣🤣🤣

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The slave mentality has so insinuated itself into europe that europeans have come to love their chains.

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I’ve been surprised at the degree to which they fall in line. Are their leaders blackmailed? I don’t understand the source of the control mechanism.

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The media is the soft control mechanism. The media dictates the Overton Window of acceptable thought. So, if you put it in the historical context, Europe has had 3 or 4 generations of political leaders who have been conditioned by the occupation such that usually no overt control mechanism is actually required. Most of these politicians have been so husbanded by the system that they have ascended to their particular positions precisely because they will make these decisions against their own interests when push comes to shove.

Of course, in the event the system err's in producing an elected leader in the correct mould, a variety of persuasive methods are available, from plain old bribery, blackmail and threats, right up to deniable terrorism and assasination.

If the American empire was vaporized today, I suspect it would take another 100 years for Europe to really shed the US Imperialism yoke its been saddled with.

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Pretty much. The process is more visible to the naked eye in small peripheral countries like Tribaltics. Post-Soviet transition there was railroaded: a new young national leader, studied somewhere like Yale, married to an American. And from there these corporate managers had built a completely colonial system where any disobedience results in expulsion and prosecution. Ranks of glass-eyed successors stand ready now to do any bidding from their overseas master and view it not as a breach of national sovereignty, but as a virtue and proof of their worth in the grand scheme of things.

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Stockholm Syndrome of a sort. The euroslaves cannot imagine life without Master, and having to make their own decisions and take responsibility terrifies the poor dears.

Not to mention, they're in so deep that they can't turn back now.

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Bags of cash deposited in off-shore accounts can do much convincing.

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Putin killed the golden goose…I guess he never heard that fairy tale?? 😂

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That's how empires work yeah.

The provinces need to do what the imperial city says, whether they lose or it or not

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

Thank you, wonderful as always.

Are you ever going to do another reader's Q&A?

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author

Thanks. I've been thinking about it, it's just that the readership has grown so much it's impossible to do so in the same way as before, as there would now be hundreds of questions. I've been trying to come up with a way to do it that still feels fair. For instance, other Substackers with large followings have used methods such as just "choosing" a few of the best questions, though this feels a little disappointing because many people will waste time writing elaborate questions without being chosen.

The only other method I can think of for now is a sort of democratic one where the questions will be set by "most upvotes wins", and a certain amount of the most upvoted questions will be the ones answered, etc.

I'm open to suggestions.

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Simplicius, as the end draws near, shouldn’t there be increasing breakdown of control of the Zelesnky regime and a rise in anti-regime partisan activity? Some of this activity is ongoing, but hardly mentioned anywhere. Presumably Russia has eyes all over assisting with targeting, but one suspects that there could be some critical blows, assassinations, etc, that start occurring and when that happens we will understand that the curtain is truly coming down on the current phase (ideally the final phase) of the Ukro-Nazi State. Any indication that this sort of partisan activity is increasing?

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word is that a guy threw a grenade into the TCC center in Odessa yesterday AND that many places have seen TCC vehicles getting burned (arson attack) in the middle of the night. Not sure what other anti-regime activity could take place, tbh, other than the stuff we'll never hear about such as tipping off Russian MoD to juicy targets.

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author

Also was a big "partisan" attack on Romanian trains bringing supplies to Ukraine, but now word has it that story was totally fake.

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Thank you very much for information about AI assisted battle field management softwares of Russian army. We were worrying about thinking lacking of that ability is the main reason for stagnant in Kherson front.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

"the readership has grown so much it's impossible to do so in the same way as before, as there would now be hundreds of questions"

A blessing and a curse!

But seriously though, I think a good compromise would be some combination of reader favorites and what you think are the best questions, like maybe some specific number of each. Not all questions are created equal.

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author

Aha! A bicameral compromise, I like that.

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Agree!

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Makes sense.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

We trust your judgment! The readers Q and A posts are too delicious to cancel, even if it risks a few noses out of joint, imo.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

Let the proliferation of questions imitate nature in design, whose overabundance is generative & ensures propagation: some seeds take root, others don't

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Every single. time.

ex-US ambassador to nato JEW - Ivo DAalder -has blatantly called for the immediate gangpressing of all 18-year olds in Ukraine

The Jew wants every one of you goyim dead to serve it’s purpose

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Daalder's one of the most hawkish ones, in the '90s 'co-ordinating' America's desastrous, horrid involvement in cutting up former Jugoslavia. what an embarrasment!!

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Yes. That disgusting Jew Madeline Albright made awful comments about the Serbs

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indeed, another embarrasment! alas, some of the other neocon dames (Nuland, Fryland, foul-mouthed Clinton) were to follow in her footsteps. with dire consequences :-((

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Yeah, they told us if you have a vagina you have to vote for Hillary.

I don’t think so .

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criky, I'd missed that, eeew!

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Albright boasted about “there is a place in hell..”.for those not voting for the ghastly Hilary. These genociders of female persuasion were drunk on power and comforts. Let their progeny live in shame for the enormous criminality of Albright and Clinton. Samantha power is another dishonorable human being guilty of war mongering and thousands of deaths of the innocents. She is proud to be a converted Jew and Zionist. A criminal.

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But he loves talking about bad Germans and yellow stars. Daadler is the paragon of Jewish scum

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I see no problem for NATO with large numbers of casualties. There has been a flood of illegal alien males into the US and Europe. So soon it will be time for "diversity" to fight and die for the empire. Fair is fair, right? Nobody forced them to invade the US and Europe.

They came of their own free will, and so they can put on a uniform and enjoy the experience of Russia's artillery, bombs, and drones.

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More likely they will take the sons and daughters of the indigenous population to be sacrificed in war, leaving the illegal aliens to provide cheap labour for industry.

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White men are enemies in zog so no more white military. Good luck with your 3d world JewSA.

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They would not be sending their precious illegals, they will be sending you,

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They did not 'invade', they were forced to leave their home after NATO wars and sanctions or the IMF destroyed their countries. The great majority of them are war refugees themselves. They are also much less susceptible to propaganda and hence have a much clearer view of the actual military strength of NATO which is close to zero. So no. Even excluding the racism of white Europeans who will simply not trust those people in their armies, they will be the last to commit suicide in yet another NATO war to destroy yet another country.

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US and NATO can not - even - prevail against the Yemini Ansar Allah in the Red Sea

Ansar Allah have done damage in excess of $100B or more to USEU ships and shipping, freight rates, insurances rates, lost production (the Indians complain), arms costs, operational costs -their own costs have been minimal, and funded by a grateful worldwide Muslim population, grateful that at least someone was doing something about Gaza

Many commenters, even US side, think the F-16s are an instant failure

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Failure... except for the NATO countries getting top dollar for their donated, obsolete F16's and sweetheart F35 upgrade deals!!

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Who paid the European donors of the F-16's anything?

F-35 upgrades three years late at least, no solution in sight, and is the most overpriced underfunctioning piece of metal in history - which requires more money spent keeping them sitting it in hangars than the rest of these countries military budget

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Nevertheless, those are the deals being made. Lots of promises.

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The EU ruling class has been bought both literally and with the promise of an efficient ruling class ideology that secures them from ever having to worry about the implementation of popular social or economic programs

Watch these F-35 deals fall apart as the planes do not fly do not have the tech upgrades 'refresh' etc

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No gen 6 to replace f22. lol. Diversity ‘engineering’

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The US air force a few months ago announced before congress they had only 29% combat availability on the F35, which was probably a exaggeration. So for the nations that bought them from the US what level of availability do they have?

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Lower, sometimes much lower. South Korean ones are so bad, they can't even fly enough to keep their pilots qualified on paper

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F35s are a dud are cost a Monza so all round they lose, both sides.

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Good

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" F-16s are an instant failure" Yep. And RF just put a bounty on them, 15 million rubles.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

Interesting development. Armchair War Lord on X has noted that a high level Russian delegation, consisting of Lavrov and Maria Z have landed in New York this evening.😳 🤔🤔

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author

Thanks!😊

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In that context, the news from the EU might be of interest, given that Mr Orban is currently president of the EU - a role changing every six months - and has visited President Putin in the first days of his presidency: Madame vdLeyen has now ordered EU Commissars to shun any contact with Mr Orban:

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article252530504/EU-Von-der-Leyen-ordnet-Boykott-von-Ungarns-Ratspraesidentschaft-an.html

(I think this report is not paywalled - use machine translators since it's in German).

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well spotted thank you and very interesting.....

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Do you mean New York, USA? Or New York, Ukraine? 😳 🤔🤔

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

"the globalist-financial interests who run the world and make all the top executive decisions in the West have decided there is no other way to ‘reset’ their system other than war. They tried to push the Great Reset onto humanity via Covid and Agenda 2030, but these plans have failed thus far—and so the only way left to reset the hyper-leveraged and terminally diseased global financial web is via war"

Indeed. One only needs to follow the size of the money supply and the almost overnight stabilisation of the western central banking system with regards to all those weird and wonderful acronyms they needed to implement prior to 2019, thanks to the resulting "stimulus".

The globalists' plan was quite obviously to seize energy reserves (Russia), and manufacturing capacity / microchips (China).

Then use the neighbouring western-aligned countries, Ukraine and Taiwan under the control of the western oligarchs and their families, to enrich themselves through the sale and distribution of the captured energy and manufacturing.

The "great reset" for want of a better term, should be Project 2025: Remove the indulgent western policies of DEI, global warming, and all that other junk which is destroying everything. These things were only possible after a generation of excess created by the banking system. And get everyone back to doing actual work.

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S does not mention that the effective collapse of NATO - the withdrawal of US involvement at scale -has been programmed in for awhile

The main reason for doing so is to pivot to China - made very clear in US MSM during the run up to the Summit, and in the NATO declaration itself

The Republicans and the Democrats both agree

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The "Foreign Affairs" article, from which S draws, shows gaspingly desperate OTAN-whisperers treading water w/ last-ditch ideas of how Ukraine @ all costs can join the alliance.

They posit a Berlin Wall-type arrangement, which will then, they enthusiastically tell us, allow Ukraine eventually to reunite w/ its walled-off self--but even this borrows unimaginatively from the post-WWII model. Their ideas run the gamut from 1945-1948. Nothing among the OTAN-whisperers or the alliance itself announces a willingness to encounter the 21st Century realistically.

I can't see how a multi-nodal world would find inspiration in OTAN-like ideas or solutions. I can't see how a multi-nodal world would be relegated to anything other than warming the bench in the game OTAN wants to play

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This article and all like it are way past their WWII use by date - is and are merely masquerading fluff - blubber posing as thinking

The sole purpose is to depress all those who read it to abandon hope that's there any chance of a solution to the Ukraine war except to helicopter our soldiers out bastante rapido - and nuke Shanghai much more exciting

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Except that they'll pivot to Lebanon and Iran instead as the #1. And will urge ROK, JP, and PH destabilize themselves to "counter China". Without any expectation of success, it's safe to say.

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The more lumberingly bureaucratic OTAN became & the more bloated it grew w/ unelected apparatchiks, not to mention former Soviet Republics whose regional grievances began to drive the bus, the more OTAN lost its operational flexibility.

An alliance visceral in its hatred of Russia as represented in the body of one man, VVP, has become a caricature of late-stage animus. A lot of Good Life gets lived in OTAN [grift] & a lot of unsustainable self-admiration sloshes about.

OTAN is an oligarch-jacked Jack Krekorain Death Machine on psychotropic Kool-Aid willing to commit Suicide By Russia.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Did you see this - from the great Will Schryver

Nato planning to steal back Chinese Infrastructure in Europe

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/nato-chinese-owned-infrastructure-europe/index.html

Because this helps the Russians!

( actually because it helps the europeans, no? or perhaps because it's Chinese it does not actually help....)

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You got to love them, they'll be stealing back Shanghai next - we built the infra!!!

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Read this and wonder

"The discussions reflect an increasing focus on China by the NATO alliance. The joint declaration released Wednesday by the 32 leaders, at the Washington 75th anniversary summit, strongly called out Beijing’s support for Moscow, in a move seen as a sign of progress by members eager to take a tougher stance against Beijing after such a reference was omitted in 2023.

“The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and the PRC and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order,” the declaration states, “are a cause for profound concern.”

The discussions on taking action on infrastructure, according to three officials involved in them, are still in their early stages and have seen varying levels of involvement among the NATO member countries. One NATO diplomat suggested the US, which is spearheading the discussions, would need to pursue the discussions on a bilateral basis to secure the necessary support.

From rail lines connecting Eastern Europe to China, to ports located in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, China has funded tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure investments under its Belt & Road Initiative, which European nations began signing onto in 2013.

A NATO official said that if a war erupted, the infrastructure “would almost certainly be nationalized, or nations would temporarily assume operating control, under emergency security measures. China can sue them in court after the fact.”

US officials see a precedent for such takeovers or sales in moves by European nations to force Russia to sell assets in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. For more than a year, Finland repeatedly blocked the business of Helsinki Shipyard – a producer of ice-breaking ships once owned by a Russian entity – until Russia in late 2023 sold the company to an entity based in Canada.

A senior US official says the discussions have expanded beyond low-tech to include high-tech interests as well, like quantum computing, semiconductors, and telecom infrastructure."

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"US officials" are rapidly applying the strategies they've developed & employed against Russia to China--but @ an accelerated pace, because they're not reinventing the wheel this time around. They've perfected the pressures & provocations, have gotten all the vassals compliantly in stirrup--and can now begin tightening the screws.

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US policy - First off, weaken Europe irretrievably, destroy it's infrastructure, NorthStream, financial system via CBR assets confiscation, kill the Euro

Make it defenceless by destroying all their arms in the Ukraine, especially F-16s, and by selling them non flying airplanes F-35's for large money

Up their prices on oil and LNG

Plus -

Get them to destroy their armies and soldiers by sending them in battle - this may or may not work

Conscription would be better

If neither works oblige them to commit to Pacific deployments - by cutting off oil and LNG

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Wow, that's fucking harsh, man!

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China can do a lot more than litigate after the fact if assets are seized. there are plenty of European assets especially German operating in China.

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Sure China has recourse tie the EU up in litigation - as with CBR confiscation the RF can seize larger sums in Western assets in the RF plus tie up Euroclear in litigation in the EU and outside

But that's not the real problem

The RF can tell China - forget it - if you set up EV plants in Hungary the EU will find a way to stop them

It's time to move on

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Thx for this link.

Blinken's comment--that the Ukraine war could be what makes European & Asian countries "clear-eyed about their security being tied to each other"--is both coercive & ludicrous @ the same time.

"These challenges are linked," Blinken said--meaning Ukraine's fate @ the hands of "Russian aggression" & potentially someday Asia's fate too.

Tethering oneself to a war-addicted hegemon, who in fact is compelled to prosecute wars in order to keep its economy afloat, is not the path to security

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Blinken, a mediocre intellect and obsessive Israel-firster, is a certified liar. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-tony-blinken-conveniently-left-out-his-family’s-story-174288

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/david-baillie-9b841912_blinken-is-a-liar-he-claims-that-his-stepfather-activity-7127248651453657088-Iy_u?t=%7Bseek_to_second_number%7D

"Blinken is a liar. He claims that his stepfather was in Europe, in Dachau when a Negro in a tank drove up to him and pulled him aboard. It couldn't have happened. There were no Negros within 100 miles of Dachau. The very same story came out in Boston years ago about somebody else and the Negro had to admit he was lying. That happened here in Boston and was in a story in the Boston globe."

What else can one expect from a jew indoctrinated in supremacist talmudic memes? Blinken life is about Lies and genocidal Hatred. He has been the most ardent supporter of the ongoing Holocaust of the Palestinian children and women by jewish fascists. The ongoing Holocaust in Palestine is real - unlike the fraudulent foundations of the very profitable schema of shoah.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

Another thorough report, thank you. IMO this conflict will finish this year finishing NATO forever,

Hallelujah ....

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I agree with the outcome, but not the timeline. War industry has just warmed up. Give it a decade at least.

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war industry can't change anything. The main problem of Ukraine is shortage of manpower. Ukraine will be able to fight and maintain the integrity of the front line for about another half a year. With the most optimistic forecasts for Ukraine, or more precisely for the United States, it will be able to fight for a maximum of another year, but in this case, this will be really almost until the last Ukrainian and they will have to mobilize the entire 18+ male Ukrainian population. But such a scenario is not very realistic. So Ukraine has a maximum of half a year left before the lack of manpower, the internal discontent of the population and soldiers reach a critical level, after which total collapse of Ukrainian army will happen.

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I agree.

To his credit, Simplicius was saying this month's ago.

Ukrainian Casualties will increase as the Russian firepower advantage increases arithmetically, and at some point the Ukrainian lines will just collapse.

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Yeah, but why are you basing your argument on Ukrainians getting depleted? Don't you see that today they lay down industrial militarizarion programs that are scheduled to ramp up production by the end of decade? Ukrainians will be a memory by then, Moldova will be burning next, and EU itself right after. This war cannot and will not end with Ukraine, it will end with NATO.

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Because the goal of the SMO is to eliminate the military threat from NATO and create a new security system in Europe. The SMO will end only when this goal is achieved. And this will be achieved after the defeat of Ukraine. Putin wants to eliminate any possibility of again creating a military threat to Russia in Europe. And this is only possible through Ukraine, so there will be no freezing of the conflict or the Korean scenario. Also, after the end of this conflict, the United States and its vassals in Europe will find themselves in a very unpleasant situation. They will need to somehow solve their economic and internal political problems. It is also very likely that NATO will simply disintegrate. In such conditions, they will not be able to prepare for a new war.

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Except that I don't see military threat from NATO eliminated with Ukraine’s capitulation. They are already prepping Moldova to ignite and turn into next bloodbath. Armenia is also brewing. Ukraine is simply the cheapest and most willing cannon fodder, unbelievably eager even, but there are others - and then there's population of EU. You don't think that it will be conscripted and thrown into the fray, but I do foresee that.

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Yeah, but why are you basing your argument on Ukrainians getting depleted? Don't you see that today they lay down industrial militarizarion programs that are scheduled to ramp up production by the end of decade? Ukrainians will be a memory by then, Moldova will be burning next, and EU itself right after. This war cannot and will not end with Ukraine, it will end with NATO.

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As OTAN descends, SEATO ascends--or should I say SEATO 2?

SEATO was part of the Truman Doctrine circa 1958 for creating anti-communist bilateral & collective defense treaties in southeast Asia.

Member states:

Australia

France

New Zealand

Pakistan

Philippines

Thailand

UK

U.S.

The policy was the brainchild of

George F. Kennan, an American diplomat

President Dwight Eisenhower

John Foster Dulles, Secretary of State

Vice President Richard Nixon

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SEATO ceased to exist after the US lost a big proxy war.

NATO will cease to exist after the US loses a big proxy war.

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

Even if BRICS forms an EU-style parliament, it's not the end of the world. The EU project started off well enough and was largely beneficial for the first decades. It was only after the financial crisis of 2008 and the infiltration of the climatists that things went off the rails. The EU became a reflection of the worst of its member States. BRICS would be the same, if a BRICS parliament became the villian then you can be sure that Russia or China or whomever would have already gone down the rabbit hole

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OTAN has worn the legacy of WWII like an albatross round its neck since genesis, a burden which grew exponentially over time & from which it has never been able to free itself. Now in its ossified late-stages, the alliance is paralyzed in a funereal swoon.

The Origin Story of BRICS+ promises revolutionary freshness, if only in the clean break from hegemonic/imperialistic/economic colonialism it offers. Does this mean it is immune to the bureaucratic bloat that has cratered OTAN? No. As a human-created system it of course will evince the vulnerabilities of all human-created systems. The cooperative, win-win, non-interventionist profile of BRICS+ already accretes around it a certain energy lacking from the ground-up in OTAN

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um.... no. The EU has deliberately ignored multiple instances of EU member nations holding referendums that voted AGAINST EU power grabs such as the "constitution" (aka TCE) And that happened long before 2008.

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yes - lately. Once the power is already corrupted and consolidated. But the EU getting that way was a lagging behavior, not a leading one. Pre-2008 that would be the exception. Now its the norm.

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Once the new precedent is set there's no prayer of returning to the former norm: you can't make a cat walk backwards

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Bash you're completely wrong about this.

The EU was hell-bent on creating a European superstars in the face of popular opposition well before 2008.

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The machinations may have been underway but the EU largely worked for everyday people. The economy grew, inflation was low, life was good. Was before migration, before war, and before netzero. Every large institution has people like them around, they just completely took over. The same way the women's and gender studies majors were consigned to universities until they got out into the world

I assume superstars u meant superstate ...

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How come that the EU has become a toy in the hands of the bought & blackmailed compradors who serve the banking cartel and major war profiteers?

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My brother in law deals with EU regulators. His half joking theory is all the soviets from eastern Europe moved to brussels after the end of the cold war.

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The EU as constituted today had its roots in the 1950s, and it was always a project to create a superstate, supplanting nation states and their powers and sovereignty. It was always also designed to have a thin veneer of democratic substance, but to be led by a technocratic elite. Over the last 20 years this process has continued to evolve and we now see the dangers as unelected second raters drag us towards WW3.

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Correct. EU has always been autocratic. Rose coloured glasses always make the past seem rosy.

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Marcjf, grrr! 👍👍👍 100%.

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That is true, it happened in Ireland twice, 2001 the Nice Treaty and 2008 the Lisbon treaty. If I recall correctly both votes were rerun a year later to get the right result

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I dont like this at all:

Zarkan Kingdom. (Aliens)

Confederate States of Earth. (Brics)

Republic of Mars. (Musk)

United Nations of Earth. (US/West)

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No that's not true. In 1973 UK voted to stay in the EEC. The out campaign outlined way back then that the EEC should be opposed because it aspired to be a Europe super-state.

From its very roots the EU was dirigiste, anti-democratic and neo-Liberal.

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Russia should actually base intermediate range nuclear missiles in Cuba this time

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Sadly I agree

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the RF have silent subs, much better

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It will have to; since America announced that it will put its short to medium range ones in Germany, that is inevitable.

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It could also base them in Nicaragua…

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But right now US AD don’t face south; permanent missiles in the south would actually increase us Defense to the south, where currently silent subs can be positioned…

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They are already much closer than Cuba.

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Also, what do you mean by "actually this time"? First batch was already there and armed when the crisis began.

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NATO and its stooges in the media and think tanks can produce all the word salad in the world, but they can't produce more or better weapons and ammunition to even remotely compete with Russia and its allies...So it's hardly worth bothering with their nonsense, and our esteemed blog author suffers through it for us...Thanks!

It's amazing how the art of warfare is evolving at such incredible speed, and pretty soon, most militaries will not even stand a chance against Russia and friends...Who, fortunately, have no apparent interest in the aggressive conquest of other nations....

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Throughout the SMO Ukraine has been the beneficiary of cast-off old equipment from the OTAN countries. F-16s that have been rusting away in the Netherlands since the bombing of Yugoslavia fall into this category, as does the heap of metal wreckage assembled for display in Moscow's Victory Park.

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The countries donating this junk are getting top taxpayers dollar to replace it with shiny new junk; Mission accomplished!

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Remember - PERCEPTION and public opinion are the most important things to US and EU elites. REALITY is not that important to them, as long as they can convince the wage and debt slaves that they have things under control.

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Saint Jimmy. I agree with you. But why, since our politics is entirely performative and we can't stop them doing whatever they want?

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The political system and the media are monopolized by oligarchic factions.

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Jul 17·edited Jul 17

The current "owners" of the collective west have not be able to create their own civilization for a reason.

Look at the stunning deficit of American patriots in the US governments.

"US rep Thomas Massie: Every Republican in Congress has an AIPAC babysitter:" https://www.newarab.com/news/massie-every-republican-congress-has-aipac-babysitter

"In the interview, he questioned why the lobby group or their representatives aren't required to register as foreign agents, which would be the case for those advocating on behalf of all other countries. "

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Thank you for this. Please see my new piece on the Trump assassination attempt.

https://montanarcc.substack.com/p/trump-assassination-attempt-forecast

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Jul 16Liked by Simplicius

British intelligence - a clown operation.

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Terrorist clown operation.

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