Well, there’s been a bit of a lull like a post-manic-high comedown after the events of Prigozhin’s Revolt. Partly, it’s owed to what Western press is claiming to be bad weather on the frontlines this week, which has hampered further Ukrainian attempts to make renewed advances. They’ve made them in spurts which have been mostly rebuffed with large losses, as usual.
If Poland moved into Kaliningrad Russia would retaliate strongly. The port is also the home of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Russia has powerful warships - and submarines - that could cause havoc on any Polish vessel in the Baltic. If NATO was supporting Poland, NATO vessels would also be potential targets - NATO fleets have great faith in surface warships - but perhaps they shouldn't. And if it appeared that Poland was trying to conquer the city, I'm certain Russia would consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Lots of military units use "primus inter pares" as a motto, but the insignia in the photograph does not match any U.S. unit. Soldiers from the 1st Air Defense Regiment wear the shoulder-sleeve patch of the 38th AD Brigade, which is... not like that. Back in February there were photographs of a Ukrainian IRIS-T crew that had a patch with this motto, but again, the design was different.
The showrunners are pulling their punches for now, foreshadowing things that might happen when the "real deal" kicks off. Combining the classic appeal of will they or won't they romances with the drama of a war story, the SMO Show returns to form with the beginning of the Summit Arc.
The next few episodes are a must-watch for those invested in the plot.
I knew the day the war started that Ukr had no chance. More recently I knew that the offensive wouldn't do squat other than get a lot of Ukrs killed. The true purpose is to keep the grift going.
The experts have been predicting a big Russian offensive for a long time now. I say it will never happen. Russia seized all the territory it wanted to seize at the very beginning. Ukraine is both poor and very hostile. Russia doesn't want to occupy it, thus making itself even more vulnerable to endless lavishly funded terror attacks. Besides, Russia can't afford it.
Since Ukr can't make any progress and Russia doesn't want to, the war could go on for a very long time. The only thing I can see stopping it is a Ukr mutiny. A total German mutiny is what ended World War One.
Missing throughout all this from beginning to now is an aware population. On the western side and on Kiev side.
Total ignorance and false belief is what they have.
And that's the wild card. Let the Kiev Ukrainians begin to understand what cannon fodder they are for the sake of American profiteers and with an ultimate goal of merely ethnic cleansing their own Ukrainian brothers and they will want Americans out and their own people deciding their own fates.
Let the western masses understand the same truth: that it is Kiev attempting to ethnic cleanse Donbas and all for the sake of profiteers and they will not be happy.
There is a deep semantic confusion at the heart of all this.
What is ' a nation ' ?
Is 'Ukraine' a lump of dirt?
Is 'Ukraine' a bunch of crooked greedy power crazy monsters?
Is 'Ukraine' a political philosophy?
Or is 'Ukraine' a bunch of people?
Well: it is a bunch of people. That's what nations are. First and last: bunches of people.
Now the Ukrainian people largely STILL have everything they ever had.
They still own their own land and have their own governments. From one end to the other.
EXCEPT where Kiev has invaded Donbas.
So the only despoilation of 'Ukraine' is that which the USA and KIEV have done.
Get the USA out and the lunatics in Kiev out and all will be well.
Let the people once realise that simple truth and all these conjectures and complicated twisted fancies can be put aside.
Like what is the big, big, big thing in the west today as regards this? To HELP Ukrainians isn't it?
Isn't it?
Well if Kiev Ukrainians have their land and property and government.
And Donbas Ukrainians have their land and property and government.
The THE PEOPLE are alright basically.
And ANYONE that promotes continued bloodshed between them in any way at all is NOT 'helping Ukrainians'.
That is as starkly simple and obvious as the nose on your face.
One day the penny will drop and the Ukrainian PEOPLE will realise what fools the USA and the lunatics in Kiev are making of them. And will refuse to let it continue.
On that day a REAL Ukrainian 'nation' will be born.
And THAT is the ONLY way a real Ukrainian nation can be born.
Sometimes I think the Western and Ukrainian leaders grew up in the generation of participation trophies and studied at the Derek Zoolander School for Kids Who Can't Negotiate Good.
They're hopelessly deluded. There won't be a negotiated end to this war anytime soon that favors the West. When they do actually sit down at the negotiating table, the US is going to choke on Russia's terms. The war will continue until the West cuts and runs, leaving Ukraine dangling in the wind, or until Russia has accomplished all of its objectives. Either way, Ukraine is toast.
As the summer moves along its definitely less likely Russia mounts their own offensive. They definitely need to keep some pressure on even if it's a slow grind like Bakhmut. They have to keep the ticking clock moving forward because otherwise NATO will just stall for time and wait for another opening. Without active pressure there really isn't any need or urgency for Ukraine to make a deal. All of these sub plots and rumors have time to take hold if there is no urgency. Russia is the only one that can really generate that urgency.
So what should the Ukrainian people have done when Russian forces attempted to march on Kyviv ? Do we respect a desire for Ukrainians not to be re absorbed into Russia once again ? Or do we support a Russian military takeover whatever 44 million Ukrainians themselves want ?
This is strange. The bridge strike seems to put to rest the notion that Russia does not have the means to destroy Dnepr bridges. Most of these bridges are out of range for Iskanders but Kinzhals can certainly reach them. It would be worth a detailed analysis of every single bridge to get a bearing on how many Kinzhals would be required to render it unusable. Some of these bridges are not really bridges but dams like the Karkhova dam; So that would have to enter the equation too - How much damage to the Dnepr water management system could be acceptable in an attempt to hamper the logistics routes? Probably not all bridges need be destroyed to have an effect. On the flip side, it has also been pointed out that pontoon bridges are easy to repair even if striked repeatedly. They can also be vacated if an approaching missile strike is detected. But would cutting the railway links across the Dnepr perhaps be doable? And what effect would the added inconvenience have on Ukrainian logistics? Russia has repeatedly attacked the railway bridge on the Black Sea coast south of Odessa - So what's the status of this particular one? Apparently, they didn't use Iskanders. Are pure railway bridges perhaps less susceptible to this kind of attack? A railway bridge usually consists of welded-together steel beams with lots of open space in between them. Is that the reason, perhaps? This kind of structure lets blast waves pass through to some extent.
„ With Russia’s victory will come the eventual collapse of the entire Western order, which means the hundreds of years old banking cabal that has ruled the globe with an iron fist. Those ancient families at the top cannot allow Russia to win.“
But aren’t those families controlling the digital money system?
2 Simplicius: One should be very careful when citing something that came out of Igor Korotchenko's mouth. There was a big enough scandal about his deeds in 2011 i believe. I don't remember all of the details, but he was caught lying his ass off about his military accomplishments/rank and his military expertise while being kicked out of army because of "compromising circumstances"
I thought all was fair in love and war? Guess not. That is some embarrassing whine.
Pence was over there at the same time as the CIA Director?
So, let's kill more people even though we will force talks here soon, in a few months....
If Poland moved into Kaliningrad Russia would retaliate strongly. The port is also the home of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Russia has powerful warships - and submarines - that could cause havoc on any Polish vessel in the Baltic. If NATO was supporting Poland, NATO vessels would also be potential targets - NATO fleets have great faith in surface warships - but perhaps they shouldn't. And if it appeared that Poland was trying to conquer the city, I'm certain Russia would consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Lots of military units use "primus inter pares" as a motto, but the insignia in the photograph does not match any U.S. unit. Soldiers from the 1st Air Defense Regiment wear the shoulder-sleeve patch of the 38th AD Brigade, which is... not like that. Back in February there were photographs of a Ukrainian IRIS-T crew that had a patch with this motto, but again, the design was different.
The showrunners are pulling their punches for now, foreshadowing things that might happen when the "real deal" kicks off. Combining the classic appeal of will they or won't they romances with the drama of a war story, the SMO Show returns to form with the beginning of the Summit Arc.
The next few episodes are a must-watch for those invested in the plot.
About Kramatorsk. It seems that a second Iskander, an hour or so after the first would have been quite useful.
It's terrible. Look what these bastards are doing to this country.
Couldn't agree more you fucking Slimy British Banderite backing scumbag. You and your side have been destroying Ukraine since 2014.
I knew the day the war started that Ukr had no chance. More recently I knew that the offensive wouldn't do squat other than get a lot of Ukrs killed. The true purpose is to keep the grift going.
The experts have been predicting a big Russian offensive for a long time now. I say it will never happen. Russia seized all the territory it wanted to seize at the very beginning. Ukraine is both poor and very hostile. Russia doesn't want to occupy it, thus making itself even more vulnerable to endless lavishly funded terror attacks. Besides, Russia can't afford it.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
Since Ukr can't make any progress and Russia doesn't want to, the war could go on for a very long time. The only thing I can see stopping it is a Ukr mutiny. A total German mutiny is what ended World War One.
Missing throughout all this from beginning to now is an aware population. On the western side and on Kiev side.
Total ignorance and false belief is what they have.
And that's the wild card. Let the Kiev Ukrainians begin to understand what cannon fodder they are for the sake of American profiteers and with an ultimate goal of merely ethnic cleansing their own Ukrainian brothers and they will want Americans out and their own people deciding their own fates.
Let the western masses understand the same truth: that it is Kiev attempting to ethnic cleanse Donbas and all for the sake of profiteers and they will not be happy.
There is a deep semantic confusion at the heart of all this.
What is ' a nation ' ?
Is 'Ukraine' a lump of dirt?
Is 'Ukraine' a bunch of crooked greedy power crazy monsters?
Is 'Ukraine' a political philosophy?
Or is 'Ukraine' a bunch of people?
Well: it is a bunch of people. That's what nations are. First and last: bunches of people.
Now the Ukrainian people largely STILL have everything they ever had.
They still own their own land and have their own governments. From one end to the other.
EXCEPT where Kiev has invaded Donbas.
So the only despoilation of 'Ukraine' is that which the USA and KIEV have done.
Get the USA out and the lunatics in Kiev out and all will be well.
Let the people once realise that simple truth and all these conjectures and complicated twisted fancies can be put aside.
Like what is the big, big, big thing in the west today as regards this? To HELP Ukrainians isn't it?
Isn't it?
Well if Kiev Ukrainians have their land and property and government.
And Donbas Ukrainians have their land and property and government.
The THE PEOPLE are alright basically.
And ANYONE that promotes continued bloodshed between them in any way at all is NOT 'helping Ukrainians'.
That is as starkly simple and obvious as the nose on your face.
One day the penny will drop and the Ukrainian PEOPLE will realise what fools the USA and the lunatics in Kiev are making of them. And will refuse to let it continue.
On that day a REAL Ukrainian 'nation' will be born.
And THAT is the ONLY way a real Ukrainian nation can be born.
Sometimes I think the Western and Ukrainian leaders grew up in the generation of participation trophies and studied at the Derek Zoolander School for Kids Who Can't Negotiate Good.
They're hopelessly deluded. There won't be a negotiated end to this war anytime soon that favors the West. When they do actually sit down at the negotiating table, the US is going to choke on Russia's terms. The war will continue until the West cuts and runs, leaving Ukraine dangling in the wind, or until Russia has accomplished all of its objectives. Either way, Ukraine is toast.
"Unfair use of trees"--What a howler!!!!!!!!
The "nogotiations" are just that--No! Lavrov explained that very well during his The Great Game interview. And then there was his unusual briefing/news conference which I've translated and can be read here, https://vk.com/@580896205-lavrovs-general-press-conference-30-june-2023
The Great Game interview I also translated and is here, https://vk.com/@580896205-lavrov-interviewed-by-the-great-game-again
As the summer moves along its definitely less likely Russia mounts their own offensive. They definitely need to keep some pressure on even if it's a slow grind like Bakhmut. They have to keep the ticking clock moving forward because otherwise NATO will just stall for time and wait for another opening. Without active pressure there really isn't any need or urgency for Ukraine to make a deal. All of these sub plots and rumors have time to take hold if there is no urgency. Russia is the only one that can really generate that urgency.
Great write up. Your articles are always filled with interesting information. Thank you.
So what should the Ukrainian people have done when Russian forces attempted to march on Kyviv ? Do we respect a desire for Ukrainians not to be re absorbed into Russia once again ? Or do we support a Russian military takeover whatever 44 million Ukrainians themselves want ?
This is strange. The bridge strike seems to put to rest the notion that Russia does not have the means to destroy Dnepr bridges. Most of these bridges are out of range for Iskanders but Kinzhals can certainly reach them. It would be worth a detailed analysis of every single bridge to get a bearing on how many Kinzhals would be required to render it unusable. Some of these bridges are not really bridges but dams like the Karkhova dam; So that would have to enter the equation too - How much damage to the Dnepr water management system could be acceptable in an attempt to hamper the logistics routes? Probably not all bridges need be destroyed to have an effect. On the flip side, it has also been pointed out that pontoon bridges are easy to repair even if striked repeatedly. They can also be vacated if an approaching missile strike is detected. But would cutting the railway links across the Dnepr perhaps be doable? And what effect would the added inconvenience have on Ukrainian logistics? Russia has repeatedly attacked the railway bridge on the Black Sea coast south of Odessa - So what's the status of this particular one? Apparently, they didn't use Iskanders. Are pure railway bridges perhaps less susceptible to this kind of attack? A railway bridge usually consists of welded-together steel beams with lots of open space in between them. Is that the reason, perhaps? This kind of structure lets blast waves pass through to some extent.
„ With Russia’s victory will come the eventual collapse of the entire Western order, which means the hundreds of years old banking cabal that has ruled the globe with an iron fist. Those ancient families at the top cannot allow Russia to win.“
But aren’t those families controlling the digital money system?
2 Simplicius: One should be very careful when citing something that came out of Igor Korotchenko's mouth. There was a big enough scandal about his deeds in 2011 i believe. I don't remember all of the details, but he was caught lying his ass off about his military accomplishments/rank and his military expertise while being kicked out of army because of "compromising circumstances"