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One thing to consider is the amount of experience Russian AD got in this time, shooting down almost all of Puke aviation along with their sub-standard pilot cadre. NATO or puke pilots, it matters little, you’re still getting unblooded pilots vs veteran anti-air regiments, also with superior tech. The F-16 is a contemporary of the Buk, if I’m not mistaken, new avionics or not. And Russian AD had evolved far beyond that in the last few decades. There’s really little difference with the various older SUs and MiGs that were already given and shot down.

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Could we not call them puke please? It is as offensive as orcs. Why debase yourself and the level of the debate on the comment board?

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Ukrainian pilots have assuredly already long been in training on F16s.

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May 21, 2023·edited May 21, 2023

Probably a false flag by nato. You can bet something is planned as this coincides with zelensky meeting with his masters at the g7

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May 21, 2023Liked by Simplicius

русские, вперед!

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Точно. Don't stand around and wait for things to happen and then react.

Make things happen and make your enemies react to that.

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Надо довести дело до конца! Добить Натовскую змею, чтобы опять в подполье не залезла, чтобы больше было не повадно на Россию шипеть! Штатам лучше бы думать о смене коррумпированного режима. У ВВП огромная поддержка, даже те кто раньше в чем то сомневались, очнулись.

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May 21, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Excellent as always, I wonder if the Clown in chief will try use zaluzhnys death as the next excuse for delaying the (phantom) counter offensive

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Russian HAARP, it is too hot this time.

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Jesus Christ. That was a tour de force. Well fucking done. I am (relatively) speechless.

My one point will be relating to the "frozen' conflict. Making Ukraine into another Korea, which can be swept under the rug until after the election. And also giving time for the Western World to refill armories and rebuild their Nazi army.

I have been torn on Putin. Jedi 4D chess master? Or Euro fag apologist that is reluctantly pursuing this war, and has extended it thru moderation?

This "frozen conflict" gambit will answer that question. Freezing a conflict now would harm Russia and give the West all the cards. I certainly do not advocate some manpower draining balls out offensive. But just the Russian grind. One town at a time. One big ammo dump of $200 million NATO WunderWaffens blown up a week. Never ending. Soul sapping. Right thru the November 2024 US election. And also thru the shortly arriving US economic recession.

Russia should certainly agree to talks. That is good PR. And agree to nothing except: Compete standdown of the Ukrainian Army. Immediate exit of all NATO assets from Ukraine. The Butchers of Bucha and Odessa to be delivered immediately to Russia for a military tribunal. Lifting of all sanctions. Oh, and Zelensky to be exiled to his mother genocidal Kingdom of Israel immediately.

Time will tell.

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Soul sapping. Great way to describe it. I don't want a freeze, just another place to send American troops, not that they aren't already there, but as a peace keeping entity. So many of us are tired of the notion of being the world police force when we know it is all a farce for evil. I want Russia to have every piece of dirt that is theirs.

I am hoping for the Jedi, not the Euro fag.

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There will be no Russian offensive before the elections in march 24, too risky ( + winter).I don't see VVP calling 300k or more, except if he is not candidate but who then will be?

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I don't know, for the sake of the world I hope it is someone good if it isn't Putin.

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You had until your last ridiculous sentence.

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Only unfettered evil can continue to offer up Ukrainian blood and posterity for their own aims. may I present to you, The UK and the USSA/NATO.

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Well as to the decimated units....may All Mighty God rest their souls. They fought nobly, but alas for the wrong cause, on the wrong side, at the wrong place, at the right time, and they paid the ultimate price. Propaganda is a MF, and it appears that the unread, the misinformed, fell for the okie doke, and so did the aforementioned decimated units. All for naught, all for evil. Lord have Mercy.

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So true. This is what happens when you begin to believe your own propaganda. The West has always believed Ukraine when told that they could win this conflict and that with the support of weaponry, training and money, they could take back all of what they consider their territory. Now the West is caught in a trap of their own making as the truth is revealed and reality begins to take shape, showing the world that Ukraine is lost and NATO is a paper tiger.

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Plato said, "Appearance has more force than reality," however when "talking tough" there had better be more than illusion, propaganda and bluster. Such was the case, is the case with UKR, because all I see is "tough talking" from grown men, western leaders, who never ever even had a fist fight. There is a saying, "If you bluff them, you can beat them." That's what most big guys do. They bluff, and they are so big nobody challenges them, until they do, then the big guy takes an ass whipping, because he never knew how to fight, he was just bluffing. Pray for Peace, maybe they are better at that???

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IMO Russia needs to keep exerting pressure. No time for any relief. Keep the losses piling up. Otherwise let me echo what others have said. This was another masterpiece. I’m not sure how you dissect all the information much less transposing it into material that we can digest.

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May 21, 2023Liked by Simplicius

f-16 squawk may be diversion from the bakhmut fall, and biden's troubles with the debt ceiling/general wretched usa economy, living on government cash since the virus.

kirby or sullivan briefed from hiroshima about f-16 being a deterrent to russian aggression against [rump] ukraine.

the quiet part may be the realization it is time to "freeze" and build for the next violations of minsk protocols.

if russia falls for that again, i.e. if russia falls for the us/neocons being trustable!

f-16 is not the most expensive aircraft to sustain, one engine is much cheaper than 2 engines, but usaf f-16 readiness rates have been declining for a decade. from a reliability standpoint and that 'flamed out' single engine airplanes become lawn darts; single engine is problematic!

any unit package of f-16's will come with a long and expensive logistics tail, lots of technicians who take years to build, and even with single engine keeping spare engines at 7000 miles from the depot would be challenging, unless usaf donates critical items that will hurt their f-16 training programs.

finally, eu f-16 are among the early "lots" and have been updated through usa managed foreign military sales projects sweeping across eu nations as they find euros. may not be that modern.

if f-16 performs like patriot, lockheed may lose sales of the newest lot 70/72 f-16's which go over $120 million each, which is about what f-35 goes for if the foreign buyers have to share development costs.

between israel and iraq/syria the s-300 have recorded enough data on f-16 to have a pretty good defensive program ready.

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When these F16 will fall from the sky it will be a terrible marketing fiasco for the US MIC as patriots, and himars etc..

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Unfortunately, their own propaganda is forcing them into this place.

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We already had an appetizer with that F18 in Spain

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As always Sir Simplicius just WOW!!! Superb.

Regarding the arrival ( probably already on their way) F16s. What are the odds NATO/US pilots will be at the controls?

Also do you think they will be based in Ukraine or another Country?

Thank you !

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It's a certainty. The "4 months of training" those F-16 pilots will receive will be for basic conversational-level Ukrainian language.

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The list of the units lost in the Meat Grinder is pretty stunning, and sobering. Not all of them are the AZ naughties, which I am glad they are gone, but the kids and old men yanked off the street don't deserve to be left alive rotting under rubble. My question is, how did the Uke transgender brigade do?

Does it get hot and humid in Ukraine in the summer?

Is there a way to purchase stock in toothpicks, toilet paper, and wood products from all the trees in the forest destroyed? These people are living like moles underground.

It really is sad and depleting, I want to celebrate, but jeez. At least Bakhmut is done. What an article, I feel kinda stunned, not what I was expecting for a read. Forget drinking the coffee, one needs alcohol to get through it. The Valkyrie video was amusing. All of it is just so sick on so many levels. It will seem weird if Putin isn't in charge anymore. I do not want an American, or other, puppet in his place.

Why is the little green toad still running around? The video of him visiting the Arabs was disgusting. They did not seem too impressed w/him. Imagine that.

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I've been in Ukraine in the summer. Yes, the kind of hot/humid you can experience in the U.S. Midwest, just miserable.

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So, good times wearing battle rattle dealing w/the stench of blood and dead bodies, not to mention no showers, cool drinking water, having to run around while you can't breathe because the air is thick and salted sweat running down in your eyes. I guess there isn't a good comfortable place to have a war.

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Only in video games.

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Yeah when he trotted out the attempt at sympathy with the “we are just like Israel and we get rocketed” schtick, a few eyebrows likely were raised.

I hear you in regard to the absolute wreckage. But as BlackOmega pointed out, this is a war for the entire existence and future of Russia. It’s a pity that Ukraine as a nation is being used as a cannon fodder casino, but that just reinforces the lesson: deals with Uncle Sam never end well. Besides its not as though the RF didn’t ask nicely.

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Zel truly is a toad w/warts. And yes, it was funny watching the Arab faces, they know how to read BS for sure. Toad and pony show.

That is why I am pulling for Russia, actually lots of reasons, but I know who started it and it makes me ANGRY.

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The elephant in the room: where will they park those damn airplanes?

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Poland? They opened the first US permanent barracks there this year. It takes a lot of logistics and personnel to keep those planes flying. Are they going to send in the Seabee's to build tarmacs?

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That's the Elephant!

Any air base located in aby NATO country turns immediately into a legal / fair target..

What will Putin do?

Perhaps this is by design? A ruse to enable invoking Article 5?

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Dunno. It is like tuning in to a daily soap opera or night time drama, full twists and turns, anything can happen.

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Yeah, that's exactly how I feel...

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I don't understand why nobody anywhere ever suggests that Kiev Ukraine might adopt the option of retreating behind its own borders and letting its seceding oblasts go their own way

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Will never happen Kiev decides absolutely nothing alone.

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yeah but I meant why does nobody anywhere anytime suggest it?

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Blackrock would lose a lot of money.

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This.

A good part of this war's motivation is to defend Blackrock's investment.

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+ Cargil and Monsanto. Also neon gas in Odessa, no chips for the World if no neon(Formerukraine holds almost 40 % of neon reserves, tbc).Don't forget Biden personnal interest in Burisma. Why do you think there were such a battle for former Bakhmut? For the beauty of the city?...connecting the dots, the Answer is road to Sloviansk, for once Strelkov will confirm it and be right as he was the main 'victim' of the ''we keep Sloviansk '' at all costs. Don't forget that eventhough this is wartime vast majority of both UKR and Rus oligarchs are still doing some shadow business together. The grain deal is not really about grains, but about far more importants business...

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It would impair their money laundering, and crush their obsessive dream of ousting Putin.

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yep, but why does nobody anywhere suggest it?

Except me. I'll suggest it:

I suggest Kiev Ukrainians retreat back within the borders of their own Oblasts and defend them. Leave other Oblasts alone to decide their own fate.

There you go. At least one person suggesting it. :)

I think I'll put it on my FB page.

p.s. much later:

and the USA can get back behind its own borders and mind its own business, too.

and all the toadying barnacles on the bum of Uncle Sam can drop off and drown.. how's about that?

How about that?

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Works for me. I would like to see those barnacles drop off and be eaten by sharks.

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That's politically unbearable for any Ukr politician. Because the hardliners will immediately push for another coup most likely, saying that they spilled their blood for One, True Ukraine and not that shit you're suggesting. And on the world stage it's unbearable because that means that any small province can decide they suddenly want to go on their own and secede (like Kosovo but they were the good guys!). For example, China would not support that since it means that Taiwan is actually free to Taiwan it's own destiny, US have their Texan seceders, etc, etc. Essentially, accepting that will be like opening a world-sized can of worms. Not to mention that the dominant narrative of "Evil Putin" declares that Evil Putin won't stop and continue chipping away at Proud, Free Ukraine even if they did that and you can't just up and go against the narrative.

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Yes, I know. Or I think I know. I actually don't have the political savvy to really 'know' anything about such things but I feel it's right, what you say.

But the rightness or wrongness of things doesn't stop them being proposed and even acted upon, does it?

So why isn't anyone proposing it? Even demanding it? They are not all au fait with the facts you state are they? And if they were there's many wouldn't care. And then there's just jokers and 'stirrers'. But it doesn't come from any quarter at all.

I find that a bit strange.

In fact I would hope it would be the heart's wish of the soldiers in the trenches. Most especially the Ukrainians - the Kiev Ukrainians and the Donbas Ukrainians.

I'm pretty sure the Donbas Ukrainians would like the Kiev Ukrainians to go back where they came from. They would be happy with that perhaps and perhaps not. I can't say. I don't suppose they would be if the borders were still within artillery range and Kiev Ukraine continued their nine year civilian shelling practice.

But what I'd really hope would be that the Kiev Ukrainians would wish it. Would be waking up. Would realise they are not stopping any Russian invasion but are actually part of an invasion. That they are invaders on Donbas land. Those of them that are farmers, as so many Ukrainians are, would be in no doubt whatever. And when they exchanged insults, threats, jokes and news with their counterparts in the other trenches I'm sure the concept would be very clear to both parties.

Yep. So at least there I can easily see the concept being harboured.

And lastly I think there's a good chance that it is actually how things will end up. Ironically.

There are many on the Allied side who claim Russia will conquer the whole of Ukraine and dictate terms.

But there are just as many who claim Russia is not really trying and never will because the oligarchs want business as usual and an end to this rubbish.

I think one of the mooted agreements way back in '22 that insane Johnson torpedoed was for the Allies to retain where they were at. For the status quo, in other words, to be respected and formalised.

200,000 martyred Kiev Ukrainians later, on the conscience of insane Washington and London, it looks less likely that the Allies will settle for such a thing.

Which means the Kiev side would start pushing for it you'd think. Even if they meant to be treacherous and duplicitous as they were with Minsk: still push for it.

Yep. Strikes me as strange there's never a mention.

But then, the whole bloody thing is strange isn't it?

Kiev Ukraine gets its oil from Russia.

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I think the 10-15% is at the upper end. A couple of thoughts

1) The grain deal: it was extended only for 2 months. Some people seem to think it was only done to help get Erdogan over the finish line. Nothing stopping Russia from canceling it after

2) Russia I believe only cares about pressure from a few countries two of them are Saudi and more importantly China. Although the Chinese are slow and deliberate in their movements and they don’t think they are ready, two things to consider. First, the longer this war goes on, the less resources the US has to start the war with them. Second, they know that war is coming to them. They might be tempted to throw Russia under the bus but they’re not stupid. They know the cabal will NOT STOP. Freezing the conflict only slows the cabal down but doesn’t stop them. So the longer Ukraine goes, the longer they have to prepare.

3) I’m not sure what the mood will be by March 2024 but from what I understand it’s not for stopping. The Russian public are more aware of the danger and that a Minsk III will be for the same stalling reason to rearm Ukraine as Minsk II. If Putin agrees to that it will likely be the end of him. As someone who has been leading Russia for all this time and helped build it from the depths of the 90s despair, the ONLY reason that would get him to is if the threat of continuing is GREATER to Russia than stopping .. and he everyone knows now the real threat of stopping.

Just my two cents. Barring a highly negative black swan event in Russia I only see continuation until the Ukrainian/Western problem is fully solved.

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Grain deal true is some help for Erdogan.

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Russia maintains escalation dominance. The collective west has a Krakatoa financial collapse incoming as shown by Sept 2022 FDIC and Fed datasets - total insolvency.

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USG bond prices sure don't signal any such thing.

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Same accounting standards; fantasyland. If hotair and BS were usable energy resources then I'm sure the US wouldn't be in its current predicament

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I should have wrote it out: Yield Curve Control

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3) After all his deep and eloquent speeches, after Munich 2007, after him and "My dear friend" Xi Jinping standing there talking about "changes not seen in 100 years", after Haitians and assorted Africans marching with his picture and Russian flags on ravaged streets. Come on. It would be like VVP going full Dementia Brandon all of the sudden. Judas would look nice after that.

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Colour rev in Moscow? Zero chance, who would dare?But what VVP can do after his reelection to destroy Brandon chances, just escalate on US troops under any pretext(eventually do a false flag for once), killing many US troops or why not in Syria if not in Ukr or on nato territory (airfields for F16 in Poland or Romania)? Body bags back during 2024 summer in the US will have a devastating effect probably a fatal one for Brandon.

Chinese MFA delegation will spend this all coming week( yes 7 days) in Moscow.

EU will sanctions all oil deliveries including via India. They also sanctionned Diamonds which is hara kiri for Antwerp (loss of 1.1% of Belgian gdp)but also for India. Sanctionned also Chinese companies. Iran does really not care about US EU sanctions anymore.

German minister advised people next winter will be more difficult for energy, nothing is sure if the winter is colder.

Tonight AFU strike on Belgorod (energy).

Expect a false flag made in UK as payback for Bakhmut( Kersh bridge? as Sunak asked friday).

Neocon faction is at the top as Macron capitulated on China at G7, asking sanctions.

This vassal will probably lose Airbus and other contracts he just signed in China for 30 billions.

Bloomberg advising Western losses up to 2 trillions at least if the war continue.

They will not capitulate as it means the end of Western hegemony, they will chose to destroy their countries (economy) or even WWIII, better than losing face to such a level.

Bojo convinced (after a one year of lobbying), almost all EU Nato leaders that Putin will never retaliate on anything they must escalate to any level there will be no cost.

Which is not the opnion of this person US Expert:

🇺🇲💥🇷🇺‼️American expert: The US is making a terrible mistake, they don't know what Russia will do...‼️

The United States is making a terrible mistake, thinking that Russia will never go all the way in response to military provocations.

As long as the US allows and to some extent encourages such actions against Russia, they cannot be safe, and they need to think seriously about the possible consequences," Symes summarized.

https://twitter.com/onlydjole/status/1659954454605574247

Financial ‘Shock and Awe’ on Russia Pronounced ‘Dead’ -- by Two Establishment Journals

https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/financial-shock-and-awe-on-russia-pronounced-dead----by-two?fbclid=IwAR20G5FFVaQNea0ttlfHFsoPbiCWyyAilsflyRJ6TfsVQbnqfJ6GvlUEeu0

S Hersh about Poland, 3B and co asking ZE to leave and stop the war are fake on purpose, as Hersh does not understand geopolitical issues about Russia. These countries are almost all the most russophobes (except Hungary).

Hersh was more or less right on NS(but he forgot to accuse both Brits and Poland), but for the rest he is not.

‼️Russian intelligence officer: Suspicious leak of information about the fall of Zelensky‼️

Information about the "conspiracy" of Eastern European countries, obtained and published by the American journalist Seymour Hersh,

https://twitter.com/onlydjole/status/1660016699473637382

Color rev starting tonight in Georgia again about the ''flights to Russia'' leader is French US citizen president of Georgia(diff from govt).

In Belgrade is it a color rev against Vucic (200.000 people friday) from the patriotic side or the usual S Power USAID one?

I have friends who went to this rally friday in Beograd, they tell me it is more a real patriotic one mixed with normal Serbs disgusted by Vucic, for the moment due to attacks last week killing many. But we all here remind the Maidan which started 'light' in nov 2013 and with no foreign assets (no violent ones) during two months before turning ugly in a few days in feb 2014.

All western countries including US are now expecting a recession of some kind in 2023, which means Biden will decrease rates and restart QE. Direct consequences, higher inflation again, which for Europe will be fatal as already much higher than in the US. Uk situation will turn catastrophic but brits are sheeps, politics know they can do whatever they want (see covid).

US bipartisan senate commity wants to sanction opec, and cap their oil price.

They also want to sanction any country which reopens relations with Assad.

Reminder: ukraine war is payback for Syria failed greater Israel regime change project.

It is only about Zionists being in Israel, neocons or not, Russians and Ukie oligarchs, diaspora + City of London aka Balfour tribe controlled.

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1658519373881933833

Debt ceiling theatre is a farce like very year, but small possibility for a financial crisis on purpose as diversion to launch Digital currency(euro) still possible it would explain maybe the sudden F16 statements.

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"Biden will decrease rates and restart QE"

Biden doesn't control rates; the Fed does. The Fed is at war with Wef/Davos. It's existential for the banks that it reports to.

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as if ukie pilots havent been trained for over a year or even longer with NATO. but def nato pilots in ukie uniforms will arrive. the next wunderwaffles to be shot down easily. it seems each new gadget gets a PR win first time out then its crushed to where we hardly hear from it again.

someone welcome to show me a mathematical equation that allows a slower defending patriot to target and hit a faster attacking (add vertical for extra difficulty) kinzhal .

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