Let’s begin with the biggest news: the AFU has launched a large multi-vectored counterattack on Bakhmut as has been expected for weeks, or even months, now. There are a few key things to clear up right off the bat: Firstly, the much-ballyhooed ‘retreat’ of Russian units is in fact going exactly as planned, and I have the receipts to prove it.
Another comprehensive look into latest events. I was watching Alexander Mercouris analysis today. He seems to think that a lot of the seeming angst caused by these Ukrainian attacks come from the dialogue coming from Prigozhin. It seems like he’s getting information that once Wagner is finished in Bakmudt they will be refitted and he will be replaced. Thanks again for attempting clarity into a situation where nothing seems very clear.
Any loss of territory in bakhmut is completely unacceptable. I don't know what Russia is doing but it's infuriating seeing ukraine have so much success lately
Thanks for this massive update. Found this on a pro RF blog.What do you think ?Tks coop.
I know a lot of you are sceptical a Kinzhal was shot down but it's quite possible if they've deployed the PAC-3 MSE kinetic interceptor....we'll see if further info is published in coming days
PAC-3 MSE already mentioned in link below....description from the manufacturer in pic
About the two ukie general in chief: if still alive, why would they hide them for so long? They did not even go to Ramstein and (if true did not even meet online via some secured military zoom).Maybe it is another Brit feint or deception, anyway even if kia, there are plenty of other general I guess to replace them ?Remember last year famous RF general were also supposedly KIA it seems at least Shoigu + Gerasimov are alive( but kicking not sure lol).
May 13, 2023·edited May 13, 2023Liked by Simplicius
The only blog I read about this conflict. The tech info is over my head but the strategic and tactical info is unbiased and detailed. Appreciate your efforts for truth. Noticed you are on Twatter, will follow.
BTW: Re: " It means your weapons systems are inferior, point blank." Might be better said in English by e.g., "Game, set, match." Or "End of story." "Nuff [enough] said."
I definitely agree that your more balanced approach is the reason for growth. You aggregate and analyze so much information in each of these sitreps, which makes it much easier to cut through all the grand narratives and find the more nuanced facts.
Wagners pr guy is becoming about as reliable as zelensky. But you probably dont want to say 'yes!, the ukies are falling into our multi layered trap!'
I dont understand the decoy missile, if you launch a decoy and a real missile, wont the AD just have 2 things to shoot at? This isnt 1970s Atari Space Invaders, you dont have to wait until your shot goes of the screen before you can fire again.
I think the Let them come to us, strategy has been working ok so far, might as well go on with it.
May 13, 2023·edited May 13, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Very interesting and thanks. One wonders the kind of world we could have if so much energy were spent not killing each other? It surely profits a few. Take away profit and it ends.
Good honest sitrep as always. Also exhaustive and it took me a long time to get through it. At some point here soon I'm going to tire of this war and reading about it. I hope that Russia can end it before the fucking idiots running NATO manage to convince themselves (and the 75% of the western public that are their useful idiots) to escalate in a more direct fashion. Keep up the good work.
I didn't even know there were still respectable US officers. But if the Thinker says there is, ok.
What I was sure of this week is that Ukraine's great counter-offensive is nothing more than a fantasy. As I had already calculated, Ukraine no longer has any capacity to fulfill half of what MSM continues to announce. In fact, it never had. And whoever is pressuring Ukraine for a counter-offensive only wants an exit ramp from Ukraine! And let's be honest, regardless of the training and equipment of Ukrainian troops, the disproportion in military power is such that Ukraine could never be asked to do more than try to defend its territory! Which has also worked because Russia liberated practically all the territory it wanted right at the beginning of the conflict. Any UA attack would always be suicide!
Regardless of the hysteria on the net - always very sensitive - in the last few hours and I'm going there.
Since February 24, 2022, the only certainty that Ukrainians have whenever they leave the trenches is that they die faster! Also because it has long been understood that the only training they received from NATO since 2014 was to stay in the trenches killing Russians. It was no coincidence that they didn't even go to the frontier to wait for the "invader"! Unfortunately for NATO, Russia knows more about land warfare when sleeping - or with Prigozhin - than NATO when awake! And instead of sending the infantry as NATO wanted, it introduced the famous and fearsome Russian artillery to the Ukrainian troops. Of which we read good personal reports - horrifics - from the battlefield at Peski.
So anyone who still expects more from the AFU than localized pushes like we are seeing now around Bakhmut, mainly to divert attention from Bakhmut's collapse, is daydreaming. And Russia too, we should all have realized by now that it won't move much until it annihilates or at least completely neutralizes the AFU to avoid casualties. Especially now with the West pressuring Ukraine for an offensive. Its Ukraine and Western economies that are running out of time, not Russia. Neither the FED can continue to raise interest rates nor the EU can enter winter with war in Europe. The West is not Syria and those who think of much more war time in Ukraine are wrong! Especially the Kiev regime!
Regardless of also never believing in any offensive from either side before June! Even if the ground is already dry and I don't know if it is, the risk of raining again until June is always very high. Which for NATO's quick maneuvering type was worse than a nightmare. And no headline in MSM is worth such a risk! That said it's worth bearing in mind someone with the military experience and sources on the ground of Douglas McGregor who continues to speak from an accumulation of 750K Russian troops with all sort of ammunition in the rear, all the way by the south to Belarus, to sooner or later free what's left of the east of Dnieper, from Kharkov to Odessa. City to which he draws attention to the destruction of the road bridge with Moldova to isolate Ukrainian troops in Odessa from NATO forces in Romania. We'll see!
I continue to think that the Kiev regime will fall sooner or later and that the solution to the conflict will be political and not military. Because Russia pursues other goals beyond Ukraine, such as a new European security architecture. And that it is very important for Moscow to keep some Russians regions in Ukraine as a way of exercising some political power in Kiev! Furthermore, Ukraine with no exit to the Black Sea has no future and a failed state is a problem Moscow does not want on its border!
Finally, it was himself UA Secretary of National Security and Defense Danilov, who came to say this week that pressure has already begun for Ukraine to negotiate on Russia's terms! And the disgusting propagandist Podolyak wasted no time in threatening the EU with terrorist attacks if the arms supply stops! Maybe Borrell finally realizes who his Ukrainian friends are!
Wagner can incur heavier losses than the regular army because they are considered a mercenary force, at least in the eyes of regular people. Would the MoD necessarily tell Wagner or any other units for that matter that they are meant to position as weak pockets in order to entice enemy units to attack? General Staff will use the fact that Ukraine is, for one reason or another, driven to advance to their advantage, won't they? You want to draw out their bishops and queen by sacrificing a few pawns, do you not? If you do not present convincing weak points, the enemy won't take the bate. Ukraine's imperative to take back lost territory makes this easier I assume. If the ideal position is to have your enemy to come to you as much as possible, your offensive will start when the enemy can clearly no longer come to you. Like the fortresses Russia is forced to besiege. I think Simplicius is right about low intensity warfare. It suites Russia in that it keeps casualties relatively low and makes escalation management easier. It will probably go on like this until Ukraine is simply unable to go on the offensive having exhausted themselves. And if Ukraine is willing to oblige, why stop them. If I were say, Prigozhin, I'd probably encourage it. At that point of exhaustion, the Russian offensive will begin. By that time with overwhelming force to boot, with the added bonus of again reducing probable casualties.
Was waiting for this analysis and mostly ignored the other commentary over the last couple of days
All said, Ru strategy appears to be.... fill in the blank. I can't figure out what is their plan to actually win/end the war, and I daresay that there is some indecision in Moscow as well as to whether to park it and wait for negotiations, or to win it and force them
Fuck Ukraine
Another comprehensive look into latest events. I was watching Alexander Mercouris analysis today. He seems to think that a lot of the seeming angst caused by these Ukrainian attacks come from the dialogue coming from Prigozhin. It seems like he’s getting information that once Wagner is finished in Bakmudt they will be refitted and he will be replaced. Thanks again for attempting clarity into a situation where nothing seems very clear.
Things I look forward to: Substack notifications advising me of a new Simplicius post.
As always, thank you! Here is the link from comments’ section on MoA - it is rather disturbing. Have you seen it? I would appreciate your thoughts. https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/alex-mercouris-continues-to-play
Any loss of territory in bakhmut is completely unacceptable. I don't know what Russia is doing but it's infuriating seeing ukraine have so much success lately
Thanks for this massive update. Found this on a pro RF blog.What do you think ?Tks coop.
I know a lot of you are sceptical a Kinzhal was shot down but it's quite possible if they've deployed the PAC-3 MSE kinetic interceptor....we'll see if further info is published in coming days
PAC-3 MSE already mentioned in link below....description from the manufacturer in pic
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/30235
About the two ukie general in chief: if still alive, why would they hide them for so long? They did not even go to Ramstein and (if true did not even meet online via some secured military zoom).Maybe it is another Brit feint or deception, anyway even if kia, there are plenty of other general I guess to replace them ?Remember last year famous RF general were also supposedly KIA it seems at least Shoigu + Gerasimov are alive( but kicking not sure lol).
https://www.voltairenet.org/article219290.html
https://www.voltairenet.org/article219299.html
Or maybe ukies don't trust NATO too much now?
The only blog I read about this conflict. The tech info is over my head but the strategic and tactical info is unbiased and detailed. Appreciate your efforts for truth. Noticed you are on Twatter, will follow.
Nice work S.
BTW: Re: " It means your weapons systems are inferior, point blank." Might be better said in English by e.g., "Game, set, match." Or "End of story." "Nuff [enough] said."
I definitely agree that your more balanced approach is the reason for growth. You aggregate and analyze so much information in each of these sitreps, which makes it much easier to cut through all the grand narratives and find the more nuanced facts.
The next two months will be revealing.
Wagners pr guy is becoming about as reliable as zelensky. But you probably dont want to say 'yes!, the ukies are falling into our multi layered trap!'
I dont understand the decoy missile, if you launch a decoy and a real missile, wont the AD just have 2 things to shoot at? This isnt 1970s Atari Space Invaders, you dont have to wait until your shot goes of the screen before you can fire again.
I think the Let them come to us, strategy has been working ok so far, might as well go on with it.
Very interesting and thanks. One wonders the kind of world we could have if so much energy were spent not killing each other? It surely profits a few. Take away profit and it ends.
Good honest sitrep as always. Also exhaustive and it took me a long time to get through it. At some point here soon I'm going to tire of this war and reading about it. I hope that Russia can end it before the fucking idiots running NATO manage to convince themselves (and the 75% of the western public that are their useful idiots) to escalate in a more direct fashion. Keep up the good work.
I didn't even know there were still respectable US officers. But if the Thinker says there is, ok.
What I was sure of this week is that Ukraine's great counter-offensive is nothing more than a fantasy. As I had already calculated, Ukraine no longer has any capacity to fulfill half of what MSM continues to announce. In fact, it never had. And whoever is pressuring Ukraine for a counter-offensive only wants an exit ramp from Ukraine! And let's be honest, regardless of the training and equipment of Ukrainian troops, the disproportion in military power is such that Ukraine could never be asked to do more than try to defend its territory! Which has also worked because Russia liberated practically all the territory it wanted right at the beginning of the conflict. Any UA attack would always be suicide!
Regardless of the hysteria on the net - always very sensitive - in the last few hours and I'm going there.
Since February 24, 2022, the only certainty that Ukrainians have whenever they leave the trenches is that they die faster! Also because it has long been understood that the only training they received from NATO since 2014 was to stay in the trenches killing Russians. It was no coincidence that they didn't even go to the frontier to wait for the "invader"! Unfortunately for NATO, Russia knows more about land warfare when sleeping - or with Prigozhin - than NATO when awake! And instead of sending the infantry as NATO wanted, it introduced the famous and fearsome Russian artillery to the Ukrainian troops. Of which we read good personal reports - horrifics - from the battlefield at Peski.
So anyone who still expects more from the AFU than localized pushes like we are seeing now around Bakhmut, mainly to divert attention from Bakhmut's collapse, is daydreaming. And Russia too, we should all have realized by now that it won't move much until it annihilates or at least completely neutralizes the AFU to avoid casualties. Especially now with the West pressuring Ukraine for an offensive. Its Ukraine and Western economies that are running out of time, not Russia. Neither the FED can continue to raise interest rates nor the EU can enter winter with war in Europe. The West is not Syria and those who think of much more war time in Ukraine are wrong! Especially the Kiev regime!
Regardless of also never believing in any offensive from either side before June! Even if the ground is already dry and I don't know if it is, the risk of raining again until June is always very high. Which for NATO's quick maneuvering type was worse than a nightmare. And no headline in MSM is worth such a risk! That said it's worth bearing in mind someone with the military experience and sources on the ground of Douglas McGregor who continues to speak from an accumulation of 750K Russian troops with all sort of ammunition in the rear, all the way by the south to Belarus, to sooner or later free what's left of the east of Dnieper, from Kharkov to Odessa. City to which he draws attention to the destruction of the road bridge with Moldova to isolate Ukrainian troops in Odessa from NATO forces in Romania. We'll see!
I continue to think that the Kiev regime will fall sooner or later and that the solution to the conflict will be political and not military. Because Russia pursues other goals beyond Ukraine, such as a new European security architecture. And that it is very important for Moscow to keep some Russians regions in Ukraine as a way of exercising some political power in Kiev! Furthermore, Ukraine with no exit to the Black Sea has no future and a failed state is a problem Moscow does not want on its border!
Finally, it was himself UA Secretary of National Security and Defense Danilov, who came to say this week that pressure has already begun for Ukraine to negotiate on Russia's terms! And the disgusting propagandist Podolyak wasted no time in threatening the EU with terrorist attacks if the arms supply stops! Maybe Borrell finally realizes who his Ukrainian friends are!
Wagner can incur heavier losses than the regular army because they are considered a mercenary force, at least in the eyes of regular people. Would the MoD necessarily tell Wagner or any other units for that matter that they are meant to position as weak pockets in order to entice enemy units to attack? General Staff will use the fact that Ukraine is, for one reason or another, driven to advance to their advantage, won't they? You want to draw out their bishops and queen by sacrificing a few pawns, do you not? If you do not present convincing weak points, the enemy won't take the bate. Ukraine's imperative to take back lost territory makes this easier I assume. If the ideal position is to have your enemy to come to you as much as possible, your offensive will start when the enemy can clearly no longer come to you. Like the fortresses Russia is forced to besiege. I think Simplicius is right about low intensity warfare. It suites Russia in that it keeps casualties relatively low and makes escalation management easier. It will probably go on like this until Ukraine is simply unable to go on the offensive having exhausted themselves. And if Ukraine is willing to oblige, why stop them. If I were say, Prigozhin, I'd probably encourage it. At that point of exhaustion, the Russian offensive will begin. By that time with overwhelming force to boot, with the added bonus of again reducing probable casualties.
Was waiting for this analysis and mostly ignored the other commentary over the last couple of days
All said, Ru strategy appears to be.... fill in the blank. I can't figure out what is their plan to actually win/end the war, and I daresay that there is some indecision in Moscow as well as to whether to park it and wait for negotiations, or to win it and force them
The west would win this war if they noticed a mistake they have been making all these years running our industry into the ground.
One little clue is we used to buy a very precise resistor for a product we made.
It cost 7.52 even though we were buying it by the stick.
Then my boss noticed the exact same component in a remote control car that his son bought retail for 4.98.
From then on we used to buy those cars from a little shop.
We would snip out the resistor (it was in the remote control which was also the battery charger).
We then threw the rest of the toy away.
The only problem was the legs were not as long as when you bought the resistors brand new.
Anyone who thinks it is the cost of labour that is stopping us making stuff - you got your opinions by reading what other people think.
The truth is we can not do anything at a reasonable price even if everyone works for free.
Our economies are run into the ground by know it all busy bodies.
Nobody has the slightest clue what stuff really costs (or more importantly should cost).
We should not be getting into an industrial contest of who can make the most weapons.
Somebody somewhere is eventually going to figure out how to make drones as cheap as chips and then the other side can kiss their arses goodbye.