Firstly, let’s get the leaker out of the way. One interesting thing that’s come to light is that Jack Teixeira, the air national guardsman from Massachusetts who leaked the documents, did in fact have a TS-SCI clearance—which is Top Secret Sensitive Compartmented Information. This is beyond a simple top secret clearance, as the SCI portion would enable him to view far more sensitive types of information.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Trump was in office from 2016-2020 and did not pardon Snowden or Assange, much less Manning.
Also, I find the "gay Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their rights" article to be hilarious. As a society, Ukraine is arguably less gay-friendly than Saudi Arabia (gay sex legal as a matter of law but any open displays of homosexuality a good way to get maimed or killed vs. gay sex officially a death penalty offense, but men regularly having sex with men, boys, and whatnot on the QT).
A few issues with multi year war scenario: Ukraine is an important part of the "Belt and Road" plan.
Russian losses are high, it does not mater that Ukraine is losing 7x more, how willing is the Russian public to bear that cost in lives and coin? As long as the AFU is able to hit Russian civilians in the LNR, DNR it will generate headlines in Russia, how long will the public tolerate it, there are plenty of voices in Russia that demand a crushing blow.
I have been repeating this like a parrot since the last summer but: the real goal is to make the EU scream in pain and they are not screaming loud enough, yet.
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends. Who he is & how he did it deflects from what was revealed re Ukr civil war. Leaks basically revealed what anyone paying close attention already knows. Meanwhile, Ukr is holding back Dneiper River floodwater at 5 dams north of Kherson. Some speculate it's for offensive purposes /re NuclearPP but my 2¢is it's defensive in anticipation of a fallback line to protect left bank after coming failed Ukr spring offensive is countered in mass by RFAF. If they flood the river it's instant defensive lines for the left bank & the west of Ukr. Leaked info gives excuse/time for Ukr to ramp up begging, delay offensive while dealing with recent increasingly heavy losses. Air Force w/Glide bombs are becoming a strategic & tactical game changer on fortified positions. Nothing major strategically will change till fields dry, giving everyone plenty of time to thrash this latest leaker to death...
I would add though, that Ukraine will cease to exist the moment the West/US quits pouring money into it. Which, reading the national and financial news, might be sooner than 2027.
At which point, Europe will have a bunch of heavily armed crazies to deal with, along with all the other problems that are being created.
Simplicius has another site, Dark Futura, about the various underlaying psychological issues driving the world and the directions it appears to be headed. It is safe to say these two forums, this one on present events and that one, will converge in the not too distant future, as the West reaches the end of its rope at a dead run.
Personally I think some of our issues are foundational. Remember democracy and republicanism originated in pantheistic cultures. The family as godhead. The Romans adopted a monotheistic sect as state religion as the Empire was rising from the ashes of the Republic. Basically The Big Guy Rules. The rest is history.
So those of us who didn't have our heads buried in the sand/up our assholes the last few decades will have another horizon to analyze. The Russians had their reality check, with the fall of the Soviet Union and now it's our turn.
The El Nino for this year is getting confirmed, which means it will be a much colder winter in Europe this year - requiring a lot more very expensive natural gas, just as they are in a deep recession. In addition, the US election cycle is rapidly heating up so the Dems will want to put Ukraine to media sleep mode for a while. Absent of a Ukraine real victory I can see the war falling off Western media attention and Western financial and military support. Then Ukraine could internally collapse, a bit like Germany at the end of 1918 after US ships helped hermetically seal the blockade.
Regarding the leaks it is what it is but why should I believe anything coming out of the government and it’s media controlled spokespeople.
This is another great report on the situation in Ukraine...
And you are exactly right and anyone following Putin’s Russia knows that there are more important things going on right now in both Russia and internationally other than pesky Ukrainian warmongers.
Putin is winning the war, keeping his economy humming and putting together a new world order alongside China.
Put all our leaders together for the past 50 years and they couldn’t accomplish just one of these tasks.
Yep, I’ve all trust and respect for the US government.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 19, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Russia may welcome Kiev's attempt at offensive ops as it will afford them the opportunity to destroy Kiev's best trained and equipped units (again) from what are now well prepared and staffed defensive positions. Russia would no doubt suffer more casualties and equipment loss if they went on offense to overwhelm Ukrainian units. On the downside Kiev will be able to continue shelling innocent civilians in the Donbas region if Ukrainian artillery isn't pushed back further.
Mao had a problem when he won China from Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT. He'd captured most of the KMT's army, only a fraction of it made the trip to Taiwan. There was a threat that these men could take up arms if the KMT was to re-invade China with USA/Japan's help. Murdering them in mass would be terrible PR and could lead to a long gorilla struggle weakening his barely established government. Fortunately the US Airforce solved his problem by bombing these men when they were sent to Korea as "volunteers" and those that survived became imbittered with USA. I often wonderZElenskyy and ilk are using the Russian Army to help clean their Western Ukraine of Russian, Hungarian, Roma, and other minorities.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
That 21 year old reservist Jack T. was provided top secret access is either an eloborate setup or an epic intelligence failure of the U.S. Govt. I give it 50/50 odds. In any event, it has no real bearing on the war.
Regarding the Ukraine counter-offensive, I have said before to IGNORE EVERY SINGLE WORD Ukraine says about it. It is all disinformation. They are trying to fool Russia and get an edge, and they have done so very clumsily, foolishly. It is obvious to any thinking person that announcing your plans to the enemy is simple disinformation. They also have to feed the Western MSM and thir masters. Meanwhile, Russia has introduced the 500 and 1500 kg glide bombs dropped for SU-34/35 aircraft, and is blowing away the Ukraine frontline ammo dumps and artillary and personnel clusters. Am hearing they are dropping 15-20 a day now. I suspect that when Ukraine launches its offensive, Russia will launch an offensive in an other sector and catch the Ukrainians with their pants down.
Recommend to all that following Western media on this war is an expenditure of valauable time on 100% propaganda and disinformation. I do not follow it as it has no truth. Not a stitch.
Sorry man, but I think you're dead wrong on any Republican president pardoning him or commuting any sentence. For one thing, the Obama-Biden regime didn't indict Julian Assange, it was Trump and his cabinet that pushed hard for it. Craig Murray attended all the various court hearings in London on the matter and has written at length about it at his blog. The surveillance-security state knows no party differentiation. The Borg look out for the Borg.
In a vacuum this war could certainly carry on until 2030. But time is on Russia’s side and there are far too many potential game changers floating about. Whatever your (public) thoughts are on the timeline of the de dollarization already in progress there is going to come a point; especially next year (election), where US politicians can ill afford to be writing checks to fund this war. As inflation continues to increase, and it shall, the public (sheep) will become incensed.
It’s not the Ukraine that can’t hold out it’s their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. Theres a multitude of other things that could screw things up for U Sam too. Time is not on the side of the GAE as the monetary system grows weaker and other countries abandon their crazy uncle their plans will continue to unravel.
regarding ukraine offensives: russian forces' leadership are well schooled in modern military history, the lessons of kasserein pass, kursk and 1944 ardennnes are relevant.....
as to maskirovka: soon as a point is engaged deep recon would look for the follow on mechanized force and build response based on the above examples. infrared and certain radars can pick out decoys.
response to atacms or f-16 (whose support tail would aggravate already problematic usaf f-16 readiness) could be knocking out e-3 and p-8 aircraft within 'sensor' range of russian land now attacked by ukraine. aka crimea, donbas and kherson. or knock out a keyhole!
Just finished the rest of the excellent Sitrep. Damn talk about thorough. It's going to take me some time to digest it all, but I think 2027-2029 sounds about right for when Ukraine finally ceases to be as a state. What happens between now and then is anyone's guess and as you mention, a Black Swan type event can be manufactured at any moment. If history is any guide it'll be the Americans, Poles, UK and Germans behind it and not Russia if so.
That having been said, personally I wish Russia would just end this ASAP with air superiority and force Zelensky or whoever the next puppet will be to the negotiation (read: surrender) table. Thing is the same people that squelched a peace agreement the last 4-5x (Minsk I, II, Putin's last ditch proposals in Dec/Jan and BoJo's "surprise" visit to _elensky when negotiations were said to be imminent way back in April of 2022) are not interested in anything resembling peace either, and they'll be happy to see this thing stretch out over the next 5 years. They don't care how many Ukrainian lives are lost; just that the share prices in their MIC portfolios continue to rise. Fuckin' sad, really. These people are psychopaths.
Ellsberg was set for a life sentence but the judge threw out the case because Nixon broke into his psychiatrist's office, and tapped his phone, tainting the whole case.
Trump was in office from 2016-2020 and did not pardon Snowden or Assange, much less Manning.
Also, I find the "gay Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their rights" article to be hilarious. As a society, Ukraine is arguably less gay-friendly than Saudi Arabia (gay sex legal as a matter of law but any open displays of homosexuality a good way to get maimed or killed vs. gay sex officially a death penalty offense, but men regularly having sex with men, boys, and whatnot on the QT).
A few issues with multi year war scenario: Ukraine is an important part of the "Belt and Road" plan.
Russian losses are high, it does not mater that Ukraine is losing 7x more, how willing is the Russian public to bear that cost in lives and coin? As long as the AFU is able to hit Russian civilians in the LNR, DNR it will generate headlines in Russia, how long will the public tolerate it, there are plenty of voices in Russia that demand a crushing blow.
I have been repeating this like a parrot since the last summer but: the real goal is to make the EU scream in pain and they are not screaming loud enough, yet.
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends. Who he is & how he did it deflects from what was revealed re Ukr civil war. Leaks basically revealed what anyone paying close attention already knows. Meanwhile, Ukr is holding back Dneiper River floodwater at 5 dams north of Kherson. Some speculate it's for offensive purposes /re NuclearPP but my 2¢is it's defensive in anticipation of a fallback line to protect left bank after coming failed Ukr spring offensive is countered in mass by RFAF. If they flood the river it's instant defensive lines for the left bank & the west of Ukr. Leaked info gives excuse/time for Ukr to ramp up begging, delay offensive while dealing with recent increasingly heavy losses. Air Force w/Glide bombs are becoming a strategic & tactical game changer on fortified positions. Nothing major strategically will change till fields dry, giving everyone plenty of time to thrash this latest leaker to death...
Very in depth sit-rep.
I would add though, that Ukraine will cease to exist the moment the West/US quits pouring money into it. Which, reading the national and financial news, might be sooner than 2027.
At which point, Europe will have a bunch of heavily armed crazies to deal with, along with all the other problems that are being created.
Simplicius has another site, Dark Futura, about the various underlaying psychological issues driving the world and the directions it appears to be headed. It is safe to say these two forums, this one on present events and that one, will converge in the not too distant future, as the West reaches the end of its rope at a dead run.
Personally I think some of our issues are foundational. Remember democracy and republicanism originated in pantheistic cultures. The family as godhead. The Romans adopted a monotheistic sect as state religion as the Empire was rising from the ashes of the Republic. Basically The Big Guy Rules. The rest is history.
So those of us who didn't have our heads buried in the sand/up our assholes the last few decades will have another horizon to analyze. The Russians had their reality check, with the fall of the Soviet Union and now it's our turn.
Great analysis once again!
The El Nino for this year is getting confirmed, which means it will be a much colder winter in Europe this year - requiring a lot more very expensive natural gas, just as they are in a deep recession. In addition, the US election cycle is rapidly heating up so the Dems will want to put Ukraine to media sleep mode for a while. Absent of a Ukraine real victory I can see the war falling off Western media attention and Western financial and military support. Then Ukraine could internally collapse, a bit like Germany at the end of 1918 after US ships helped hermetically seal the blockade.
Regarding the leaks it is what it is but why should I believe anything coming out of the government and it’s media controlled spokespeople.
This is another great report on the situation in Ukraine...
And you are exactly right and anyone following Putin’s Russia knows that there are more important things going on right now in both Russia and internationally other than pesky Ukrainian warmongers.
Putin is winning the war, keeping his economy humming and putting together a new world order alongside China.
Put all our leaders together for the past 50 years and they couldn’t accomplish just one of these tasks.
Yep, I’ve all trust and respect for the US government.
Russia may welcome Kiev's attempt at offensive ops as it will afford them the opportunity to destroy Kiev's best trained and equipped units (again) from what are now well prepared and staffed defensive positions. Russia would no doubt suffer more casualties and equipment loss if they went on offense to overwhelm Ukrainian units. On the downside Kiev will be able to continue shelling innocent civilians in the Donbas region if Ukrainian artillery isn't pushed back further.
Mao had a problem when he won China from Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT. He'd captured most of the KMT's army, only a fraction of it made the trip to Taiwan. There was a threat that these men could take up arms if the KMT was to re-invade China with USA/Japan's help. Murdering them in mass would be terrible PR and could lead to a long gorilla struggle weakening his barely established government. Fortunately the US Airforce solved his problem by bombing these men when they were sent to Korea as "volunteers" and those that survived became imbittered with USA. I often wonderZElenskyy and ilk are using the Russian Army to help clean their Western Ukraine of Russian, Hungarian, Roma, and other minorities.
That 21 year old reservist Jack T. was provided top secret access is either an eloborate setup or an epic intelligence failure of the U.S. Govt. I give it 50/50 odds. In any event, it has no real bearing on the war.
Regarding the Ukraine counter-offensive, I have said before to IGNORE EVERY SINGLE WORD Ukraine says about it. It is all disinformation. They are trying to fool Russia and get an edge, and they have done so very clumsily, foolishly. It is obvious to any thinking person that announcing your plans to the enemy is simple disinformation. They also have to feed the Western MSM and thir masters. Meanwhile, Russia has introduced the 500 and 1500 kg glide bombs dropped for SU-34/35 aircraft, and is blowing away the Ukraine frontline ammo dumps and artillary and personnel clusters. Am hearing they are dropping 15-20 a day now. I suspect that when Ukraine launches its offensive, Russia will launch an offensive in an other sector and catch the Ukrainians with their pants down.
Recommend to all that following Western media on this war is an expenditure of valauable time on 100% propaganda and disinformation. I do not follow it as it has no truth. Not a stitch.
re: the destroyed leopard ... looks like the 2 tanks were jousting and the 'winner' knocked the head off the loser
I meant to ask about that Russian tank T90 that was seen in Louisiana abandoned on a big rig flatbed.
Supposedly captured by Ukrainians is a hoax or what??? The pics looked authentic.
Sorry man, but I think you're dead wrong on any Republican president pardoning him or commuting any sentence. For one thing, the Obama-Biden regime didn't indict Julian Assange, it was Trump and his cabinet that pushed hard for it. Craig Murray attended all the various court hearings in London on the matter and has written at length about it at his blog. The surveillance-security state knows no party differentiation. The Borg look out for the Borg.
In a vacuum this war could certainly carry on until 2030. But time is on Russia’s side and there are far too many potential game changers floating about. Whatever your (public) thoughts are on the timeline of the de dollarization already in progress there is going to come a point; especially next year (election), where US politicians can ill afford to be writing checks to fund this war. As inflation continues to increase, and it shall, the public (sheep) will become incensed.
It’s not the Ukraine that can’t hold out it’s their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. Theres a multitude of other things that could screw things up for U Sam too. Time is not on the side of the GAE as the monetary system grows weaker and other countries abandon their crazy uncle their plans will continue to unravel.
Love that cell phone trick btw. Very cool idea.
regarding ukraine offensives: russian forces' leadership are well schooled in modern military history, the lessons of kasserein pass, kursk and 1944 ardennnes are relevant.....
as to maskirovka: soon as a point is engaged deep recon would look for the follow on mechanized force and build response based on the above examples. infrared and certain radars can pick out decoys.
response to atacms or f-16 (whose support tail would aggravate already problematic usaf f-16 readiness) could be knocking out e-3 and p-8 aircraft within 'sensor' range of russian land now attacked by ukraine. aka crimea, donbas and kherson. or knock out a keyhole!
Just finished the rest of the excellent Sitrep. Damn talk about thorough. It's going to take me some time to digest it all, but I think 2027-2029 sounds about right for when Ukraine finally ceases to be as a state. What happens between now and then is anyone's guess and as you mention, a Black Swan type event can be manufactured at any moment. If history is any guide it'll be the Americans, Poles, UK and Germans behind it and not Russia if so.
That having been said, personally I wish Russia would just end this ASAP with air superiority and force Zelensky or whoever the next puppet will be to the negotiation (read: surrender) table. Thing is the same people that squelched a peace agreement the last 4-5x (Minsk I, II, Putin's last ditch proposals in Dec/Jan and BoJo's "surprise" visit to _elensky when negotiations were said to be imminent way back in April of 2022) are not interested in anything resembling peace either, and they'll be happy to see this thing stretch out over the next 5 years. They don't care how many Ukrainian lives are lost; just that the share prices in their MIC portfolios continue to rise. Fuckin' sad, really. These people are psychopaths.
Ellsberg was set for a life sentence but the judge threw out the case because Nixon broke into his psychiatrist's office, and tapped his phone, tainting the whole case.