Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Trump was in office from 2016-2020 and did not pardon Snowden or Assange, much less Manning.
Also, I find the "gay Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their rights" article to be hilarious. As a society, Ukraine is arguably less gay-friendly than Saudi Arabia (gay sex legal as a matter of law but any open displays of homosexuality a good way to get maimed or killed vs. gay sex officially a death penalty offense, but men regularly having sex with men, boys, and whatnot on the QT).
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Trump actively INDICTED Assange where the previous regime had thought about it but declined to do so. So yeah, I think Simplicius is wrong about any pending Republican pardon/commutation for Teixeira. For me, the key takeaway and proof that Trump did in fact take an active role in pushing for the indictment is that "Obama didn't do it." We all know that Trump was highly motivated to "undo" anything Obama did and to do what he hadn't.
"Fitzgerald asked how this related to the Trump administration. Rogers said that Trump was a threat to Wikileaks because he comes from a position of quite extreme hostility to transparency and accountability in his administration. Fitzgerald suggested the incoming Trump administration had demonstrated this hostility to Assange and desire to prosecute. Rogers replied that yes, the hostility had been evidenced in a series of statements right across the senior members of the Trump administration. It was motivated by Trump’s characterisation of any adverse information as “fake news”.
Fitzgerald asked whether the motivation for the current prosecution was criminal or political? Rogers replied “the latter”. This was a part of the atypical behaviour of the Trump administration; it prosecutes on political motivation. They see openness as a particular threat to this administration. This also related to Trump’s obsessive dislike of his predecessor. His administration would prosecute Assange precisely because Obama did not prosecute Assange. Also the incoming Trump administration had been extremely annoyed by the commutation of Chelsea Manning’s sentence, a decision they had no power to revoke. For that the prosecution of Assange could be vicarious revenge.
Several senior administration members had advocated extremely long jail sentences for Assange and some had even mooted the death penalty, although Rogers realised that was technically impossible through this process.
Fitzgerald asked whether Assange’s political opinions were of a type protected by the Refugee Convention. Rogers replied yes. Persecution for political opinion is a solid reason to ask for refugee status. Assange’s actions are motivated by his political stance. Finally Fitzgerald then asked whether Rogers saw political significance in the fact that Assange was not prosecuted under Obama. Rogers replied yes, he did. This case is plainly affected by fundamental political motivation emanating from Trump himself."
Yeah US political cultists are so damned annoying. And you're right about Trump and Obama. Over at Moon of Alabama, I've been saying for a while that what kind of distinguishes them from other recent presidents is that they didn't so much have voters or supporters, but actual fans (aka fanatics).
You probably witnessed the verbal diarrhea battle I got into with a dude at Taibbi's Substack over Clarence Thomas. I made it clear that I would like to see ANY judge engaging in this kind of (well documented by now) behavior subjected to investigation and, if warranted, impeachment. Then there's the part that partisan tribalists never seem to get about it not just being corruption but that even *the appearance* of corruption dramatically lowers the public faith in institutions. Don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole again but I did mute that thread finally after getting replies from 2AM all the way to 6AM, but geez. There's this pervasive attitude among Americans (probably other nationalities too) that so long as "my team" is doing it, it's OK and anything anyone else says contrary can only be "the other team" trying to hurt us. It's gotten beyond ridiculous.
Yes. I always thought Trump and Obama are basically same people, peddling "hope and change" without any substance, although with different "styles.". Naturally, they get same cultist following who insist that they (and their god) are different, too.
Trump's speech patterns were very conducive to the crowds accepting his message. And the message itself was very promising. Like MAGA. Who would be against that, right?
A few issues with multi year war scenario: Ukraine is an important part of the "Belt and Road" plan.
Russian losses are high, it does not mater that Ukraine is losing 7x more, how willing is the Russian public to bear that cost in lives and coin? As long as the AFU is able to hit Russian civilians in the LNR, DNR it will generate headlines in Russia, how long will the public tolerate it, there are plenty of voices in Russia that demand a crushing blow.
I have been repeating this like a parrot since the last summer but: the real goal is to make the EU scream in pain and they are not screaming loud enough, yet.
To give one example, everyone in Europe knows that the United States and its minions blew up Nordstream, but nobody, and certainly nobody of influence and authority, dares do anything about it, or even speak up in public.
Well, depends what you mean by 'high'. Russian losses, currently around 15-17k KIA are really a drop in the bucket of a 145 million population country. A disproportionate amount of the losses also appears to be from provincial areas, which are typically the least politically motivated and have the least 'voice' and influence in society. This is not simply by 'design', by the way, in terms of some devious plot by Putin to use up non-ethnic Russians as cannonfodder. It's a simple reality of economics. Provincial areas in any country are typically lower educated, and have less justifiable excuses to get out of mobilization. In urban areas like Moscow, a lot more people are in Universities and such which gives them official exemptions from mobilization, seeing as how the mobilized are taken only from a pool of reserves, and to be in the reserves you had to have served, and to have served you had to have not gone to University since conscription in Russia is only for people who do not attend: https://www.rt.com/russia/563477-students-mobilization-deferment-decree/
But my point being that, since the provincial areas are likely bearing more of the losses, it naturally creates a buffer where the cosmopolitan big city society, which has more of the voice and political influence, is not feeling the effects of the war at all. So the chances for some type of societal uprising you're describing are very minimal. And recent polls show that Putin's approval rating continues to remain sky high over 80%.
So as far as public tolerating it, there is no evidence whatsoever thus far to suggest that it won't tolerate it.
However, it's difficult to project very far into the future. Certainly the things I said are true for the time being, but 5-7 years in the future is very difficult to project and things could conceivably change. But what I'm saying is there is no real reason yet for us to think they WILL change, as there is no real uproar in society at all other than some 5th/6th column paid propagandists.
Losses are about the only semi-apt comparison there. The Vietnam war got progressively massively unpopular. It spurred entire cultural movements and counter-cultures. There is nothing even remotely resembling that in Russian society currently. Just small mouse-peeps from 5th/6th column NGOs while the majority of the population supports the war.
With that said, it's still young. That COULD change in time. But I'm referring to the present.
Could the Ukraine war become a Russian Vietnam eventually down the line? Of course, just like Afghanistan and Chechen War 1 both were to some extent. But the bigger question you're not asking is, could the Ukraine war become an Afghanistan/Vietnam for the U.S.? And who is the one more likely to incur such a scenario? The Russian political/societal climate is currently far more stable than the American one, and as mentioned elsewhere, America is actually blowing far more $$$ on the Ukraine conflict than Russia is.
Well firstly I'd argue Russia has far more soft power currently, depending on which area of the world you're referring to. A large swath of the world, U.S. has lost all influence. In Europe--sure.
And U.S. can withdraw at any time, right--and it would incur massive reputational damage if it did so.
The fact of the matter is, U.S. is currently losing badly in the war and it's stuck between rock and hard place because it can't easily escalate to a victory yet it can't pull out without literally being humiliated on the world stage and possibly losing the last semblance of its global image.
Western elites don't care what Russians think. Russian elites (and not only) covet approval of the West, the Harvard degree, the European labels, the lame Hollywood movies, etc.. Not just in Europe or Russia, but throughout the world. China, too.
That's soft power.
The US will suffer reputational damage if it leaves Ukraine (like Vietnam) but it can leave. Russia cannot, lest it be carved up.
RU AF losses are very far from 100 a day. If you look at Mediazona figures (which is an openly anti-Russian project sponsored by the West and working with the BBC), their current estimates of Russian losses across all AF types are below 10/day on most days. For example, there's been just 1 confirmed casualty among RU VKS pilots in the past 6 months.
The only ones who did lose substantially more on some days (but never 100/day, at max around 50-60/day) are Wagner/inmates. And I'd argue that those losses aren't really that big of a deal for Russian society, as those guys generally approach war with a fatalistic, self-sacrificial mindset, and don't mind taking those losses as long as they inflict far more on the UAF.
That was back then. Russian MOD gives figures for Ukrainian losses, divide that by 10 and you get Russian losses. On a slow day Ukrainians are losing 200-300 men. It adds up over time.
EU is set to pony up 500 billions every year in order to maintain Kiev under artificial breathing. I’m from Paris and if you don’t hear the screams u are deaf and we can’t do nothing about it
Your government cares nothing for you. As you pointed out, there isn't anything you can do about this, and the elites of France have no problem with a wholesale massacre of French citizens, if that will be what it takes for them maintain their grip on power.
You raise some good, valid points, Russia's demographic problem being the most important. But beyond the stated SMO goals and that of the December 2021 Security Proposals/Demands, what are the additional stated goals of Russia and China? Few seem to know that in his speech delivered on 21 September 2022 Putin made the following vow:
"It is in our historical tradition, in the fate of our people, to stop those who are striving for world domination, who threaten to dismember and enslave our Motherland, our Fatherland. We will do it now, and so it will be."
My paraphrase: We will stop those striving for world domination because that's what Russian's do, and we will again do it now; and we won't stop until we're done.
That vow's been reiterated on several occasions by Putin. A similar vow is also within China's Global Security Initiative which states No Hegemony will be allowed. Something very similar to both was stated in the Russia/China 4 February 2022 Joint Declaration, was reiterated in the recent Declarations made after the Xi/Putin Summit and is also contained within Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept that was published on 31 March 2023. If you've closely observed Russian FM Lavrov's rhetoric since February 2022--and more so now that the new Concept is out--his assignment to show to those willing to listen--most of the world--that it's the Outlaw US Empire and its gaggle of vassals who are the International law breakers, not Russia, and that Russia was completely within its rights to do what it did, is now doing, and will proceed to do. So, yes, the SMO within Ukraine will end with the extinguishing of the artificial entity that is Ukraine--whenever that occurs. And it ought to be very clear that whatever's said by the Collective West no longer matters to Russia as it sees that entire entity as operating outside the norms of International Law as laid down in the UN Charter. Do read Lavrov's remarks at the presser today in Caracas for a very good example.
No hegemony means no NATO and a defanged Outlaw US Empire. The latter has done Russia a great favor by attacking the EU, bombing the Nord Stream pipes, and applying all those illegal sanctions. Indeed, all its actions have weakened the entire Collective, which was already weak to begin with. NATO has a military force is a joke aside from its nukes that would be suicidal to use. The Collective was and remains geoeconomically dependent on Russia and also China. Neoliberal Parasitism has greatly weakened the Collective's industrial power and thus its military power while also creating a financial house of cards that will soon collapse as it's extremely unstable. Those currently holding power are incapable of diffusing the problems as their actions only serve to deepen them. So, time is very much on Russia's and China's side. At a presser earlier this month, Lavrov was asked about Russia being charged with interfering in any Western elections as has now been done; his reply was we don't need to as they're doing a very good job of it themselves, which is the truth.
An ancient maxim says not to interrupt your opponent when it's making a mistake. In the RoW's eyes, the Collective West continues to dig its hole ever deeper. Today's Global Times editorial said to Blinken and crew--Don't call us; we'll call you--along with sterner rhetoric. South Korea's playing a dangerous game of "loaning" its Master 155mm ammo and Paladin SPA systems that never transit the Pacific to the states but go to Ukraine, and its PM just lied about that arrangement which prompted Medvedev to say we'll provide arms to the North. The latest Russian economic indicators are quite positive and will continue to improve. Although it's not really spelled out anywhere, Putin has stated Russia's operating under a new economic concept, which amounts to state support for Russian's and their economy--a very different Third Way. The main inhibitor is the demographic problem--Russia needs more people, not for the military but to run its rapidly expanding economy. I expect at some point for legislation to subsidize the emigration of Russian's living outside Russia, particularly from the Baltics, but that will not be enough. Millions of people from CSTO nations already work within Russia, and millions more would migrate if the incentives were better, particularly the issue of housing which is a National Priority. And do take note that the remedy must be long lasting--multigenerational. Thus, the demographic problem will force the Go Slow policy that however must compromise with the political imperative to drive Ukie artillery out-of-range of Russian settlements--new and old.
It's that political imperative I see driving Russia's next major military moves: Something swift that pushes far is what's required, IMO. It makes sense for it to come from the North, but there must also be movement in the South. Yet, the other side of the coin regarding a conflict that lasts 5 more years must also be considered since Ukie manpower is already becoming more than limited along with its war material. It seems very likely that NATO will further step in by donning Ukie uniforms as it already has, which will create blowback in the nations they're drawn from, unless they're Polish/Baltic. Projected reports about the EU's energy situation for the 2023 Winter are not optimistic with Germany shutting down its last NPPs and Russian supplies of NPP fuel facing curtailment with no foreseeable substitutions. All these own goals just make Russian's smile. The other time consuming gamechanger is the new international financial system and its institutions that will bypass as many Outlaw US Empire choke points as possible. Imagine a vast apartment complex that's the world's nations which needs to be retrofitted with new plumbing and electrical systems and you can understand the complexity involved in that project. The current idea is to erect regional systems then tie them together as a whole, while not accommodating the Dollar/Euro Bloc until they cease being hegemonic.
So, there's my outline of the Grand Design based on what's already been declared and being constructed.
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends. Who he is & how he did it deflects from what was revealed re Ukr civil war. Leaks basically revealed what anyone paying close attention already knows. Meanwhile, Ukr is holding back Dneiper River floodwater at 5 dams north of Kherson. Some speculate it's for offensive purposes /re NuclearPP but my 2¢is it's defensive in anticipation of a fallback line to protect left bank after coming failed Ukr spring offensive is countered in mass by RFAF. If they flood the river it's instant defensive lines for the left bank & the west of Ukr. Leaked info gives excuse/time for Ukr to ramp up begging, delay offensive while dealing with recent increasingly heavy losses. Air Force w/Glide bombs are becoming a strategic & tactical game changer on fortified positions. Nothing major strategically will change till fields dry, giving everyone plenty of time to thrash this latest leaker to death...
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends.
People are complicated, your statement could be true without invalidating any of the earlier statements above. ‘Hath not a man-child eyes?’ ‘If you prick one, do they not bleed?’
I would add though, that Ukraine will cease to exist the moment the West/US quits pouring money into it. Which, reading the national and financial news, might be sooner than 2027.
At which point, Europe will have a bunch of heavily armed crazies to deal with, along with all the other problems that are being created.
Simplicius has another site, Dark Futura, about the various underlaying psychological issues driving the world and the directions it appears to be headed. It is safe to say these two forums, this one on present events and that one, will converge in the not too distant future, as the West reaches the end of its rope at a dead run.
Personally I think some of our issues are foundational. Remember democracy and republicanism originated in pantheistic cultures. The family as godhead. The Romans adopted a monotheistic sect as state religion as the Empire was rising from the ashes of the Republic. Basically The Big Guy Rules. The rest is history.
So those of us who didn't have our heads buried in the sand/up our assholes the last few decades will have another horizon to analyze. The Russians had their reality check, with the fall of the Soviet Union and now it's our turn.
Yes, this site as well as Dark Futura are “running” in tandem. The Spiritual War, and this SMO. Micro, Macro…is appears not to be just Global, but quite interpersonal…the evolutionary spin of the cycle of ages. In our hearts, families, locally, communities, regional, statewide, (USA), globally. I sure do vision the rise in consciousness coming from the East, and of course the BRICS nations. Ashes to ashes, all fall down…touring with the Grateful Dead in my early years….the West is appearing to…fall down❤️🇷🇺💙
We are linear, goal oriented creatures in a cyclical, circular, reciprocal, feedback generated reality and we are reaching the edge of the petri dish, so it's time to accept the world is round.
That's a good point and I agree. If the funding dried up today, then the war would be over by the end of this year. However, I'm not convinced yet that the funding will dry up any time soon though there are indications it will of course, at least to some extent. But we'll see how things play out. But you're right that my 2027-2030 projection is only in the event that the West continues to heavily subsidize and bankroll the Ukrainian state.
Funding is one factor. Military support is another. Last factor is Ukrainian regime support within the populace if losses continue to mount.
Military support will dry up or slow to trickle due to limitations on supply from production capacity and/or other conflicts.
Funding is peanuts compared to the total USG budget but will be slightly harder with political opposition and/or economic difficulties.
Regime stability is unknown to me. I don’t know how much info is coming out within Ukraine about the actual state of the war but I figure at some point - possibly after the offensive and Russia’s counter - it will be harder to hide casualties and the state of the AFU.
Simplicus might pick up the last topic in one of his (as aurai always) outstanding exposés.
Ukraine is using a similar strategy to Russia that I wrote about above in another comment, advertently or not. Which is that a lot of the losses are coming from provincial regions, as Ukraine deliberately recruits from Russian-speaking regions the hardest, and lets pro-Regime regions get away with the most draft-dodging. These are the disenfranchised people in rural / provincial regions who already don't have much influence or political voice, so for their regions to have disproportionately huge losses does not create much political/societal blowback for the regime. It's a smart strategy.
This allows the cosmopolitans and urbanites in Kiev and elsewhere to continue partying and not really levy any pressure on the regime. The periphery regions suffer the hardest losses but they are the least influential, have the least 'voice' and influence and can be easily swept under the rug.
But of course as with always, nothing can go on forever.
One of the biggest key things we'll have to wait for and see, is whether Russia chooses to do any large crippling blows at the start of its own next offensive(s), which would cripple society economically to such an extent to finally create upheaval. For instance, we know that Russia is saving up mass amounts of missiles right now. I read a recent report from the Ukrainian side that said Russia may have upwards of 2,500 new long range guided missiles saved up soon for its own next phase of offensives.
If that's the case, we COULD see Russia unleash to finish off Ukraine economically. I.e. renewed attacks on power infrastructure, maybe bridges or other economically significant targets. If that's the case then it could bring the downfall much sooner.
I guess my sense is Ukraine is more a kleptocracy, with the ideology as cover. That if the money was turned off, it would make the collapse in Afghanistan look slow motion. Once the oligarchs realize the party is over, they will be racing for the door, if not already phoning it in, then their goons don't want to hang around and will be the ones scattering across Europe. Which will leave an enormous vacuum in the middle.
So the issue is when/if the funding gets cut. My sense is the de-dollarization of the world economy really is the pin in the balloon. There is just so much debt built into it, that at some moment the markets are going to get the sense it really is going down and it's going to be one of those few days/weeks event, where everyone runs for the door.
Maybe it will take awhile longer to play out, than a stock market crash, but the fact remains, this country has far more debt out there, than it can ever imagine paying off. At that point, Ukraine will be yesterday's newspaper.
My guess is the military support will run out first and the financial support shortly after. You can’t fire $100 bills at the Russians when they’re sending you 1500kg glide bombs 😀
So the question is, when do they stop the military support? Europe is at or near there already so the deciding factor is the U.S.
A change of government. Minimum Domestic stock pile limits hit with not much increase in production capacity. Or distracted by conflict(s) elsewhere.
I have seen no evidence that the French police and army will hesitate to shoot if ordered to do so.
And if the French elites have to maintain their grip on power through wholesale massacre of French citizens, well, they won't lose a minute's sleep to conscience. Hell, their American and EU wide counterparts will praise their "hardheaded realism".
I'd change the wording of ThePhoenix from military support to "real goods", but he's spotted it too. The USD is a con-game now, with a few strokes of a keyboard more can be made. The importance of something like Ukraine or Afghanistan is that it must destroy most of these dollars, just as China was to lock them up in bonds, otherwise they flood back into the US and destroy the domestic value of the USD. "There is no replacement for the USD right now," but what the idiots who keep muttering that fact don't get is that does not mean it can't be destroyed. Soon enough we may well live in a world without a reserve currency. This is going to happen when "real goods" become so sparse that they can not be purchased at any price because there simply is not enough to go around. Karl Marx may not have been good at prescriptive advise, but he was terribly insightful on descriptive diagnosis.
edit: Oh crap, got distracted. I wanted to write a comment that the M2 Bradley/Strikers must mean depleted Uranium, in far larger quantities that the British tanks could possible spit out, are there with their chain guns.
The El Nino for this year is getting confirmed, which means it will be a much colder winter in Europe this year - requiring a lot more very expensive natural gas, just as they are in a deep recession. In addition, the US election cycle is rapidly heating up so the Dems will want to put Ukraine to media sleep mode for a while. Absent of a Ukraine real victory I can see the war falling off Western media attention and Western financial and military support. Then Ukraine could internally collapse, a bit like Germany at the end of 1918 after US ships helped hermetically seal the blockade.
Regarding the leaks it is what it is but why should I believe anything coming out of the government and it’s media controlled spokespeople.
This is another great report on the situation in Ukraine...
And you are exactly right and anyone following Putin’s Russia knows that there are more important things going on right now in both Russia and internationally other than pesky Ukrainian warmongers.
Putin is winning the war, keeping his economy humming and putting together a new world order alongside China.
Put all our leaders together for the past 50 years and they couldn’t accomplish just one of these tasks.
Yep, I’ve all trust and respect for the US government.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 19, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Russia may welcome Kiev's attempt at offensive ops as it will afford them the opportunity to destroy Kiev's best trained and equipped units (again) from what are now well prepared and staffed defensive positions. Russia would no doubt suffer more casualties and equipment loss if they went on offense to overwhelm Ukrainian units. On the downside Kiev will be able to continue shelling innocent civilians in the Donbas region if Ukrainian artillery isn't pushed back further.
Mao had a problem when he won China from Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT. He'd captured most of the KMT's army, only a fraction of it made the trip to Taiwan. There was a threat that these men could take up arms if the KMT was to re-invade China with USA/Japan's help. Murdering them in mass would be terrible PR and could lead to a long gorilla struggle weakening his barely established government. Fortunately the US Airforce solved his problem by bombing these men when they were sent to Korea as "volunteers" and those that survived became imbittered with USA. I often wonderZElenskyy and ilk are using the Russian Army to help clean their Western Ukraine of Russian, Hungarian, Roma, and other minorities.
It is in fact happening exactly as you describe. I reported previously a chart showing that Ukraine is in fact heavily disproportionately recruiting from the Russian-speaking regions and is sending them off to die and basically 'cleansing' them.
Meanwhile, it's been proven via statistics that the most anti-Russian regions have the highest fleeing and draft-dodging rate, i.e. Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, etc.
I have “sensed” this for sometime. The “remote viewing” I am able to muster as I view our fourth planet from the sun…what chess pieces are being moved about, who is doing the bidding of who…to what end…a long, tortuous journey, in my, very short life time.💙🌍💙
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
That 21 year old reservist Jack T. was provided top secret access is either an eloborate setup or an epic intelligence failure of the U.S. Govt. I give it 50/50 odds. In any event, it has no real bearing on the war.
Regarding the Ukraine counter-offensive, I have said before to IGNORE EVERY SINGLE WORD Ukraine says about it. It is all disinformation. They are trying to fool Russia and get an edge, and they have done so very clumsily, foolishly. It is obvious to any thinking person that announcing your plans to the enemy is simple disinformation. They also have to feed the Western MSM and thir masters. Meanwhile, Russia has introduced the 500 and 1500 kg glide bombs dropped for SU-34/35 aircraft, and is blowing away the Ukraine frontline ammo dumps and artillary and personnel clusters. Am hearing they are dropping 15-20 a day now. I suspect that when Ukraine launches its offensive, Russia will launch an offensive in an other sector and catch the Ukrainians with their pants down.
Recommend to all that following Western media on this war is an expenditure of valauable time on 100% propaganda and disinformation. I do not follow it as it has no truth. Not a stitch.
It's real, I was going to do a writeup on it in this report but it got too lengthy so I'm still considering doing a separate write up on it. With that said, it's a T-90A which is the old version Russia doesn't really even use anymore. They are converting all the old A's into T-90M which are the modern ones. But there are still a few things even the 90A has that American tanks don't have, that the U.S. plans to study.
Oh good, I think it would be interesting to hear what you think and can find out about that... maybe you can jam it in on one of your next articles if have time
Sorry man, but I think you're dead wrong on any Republican president pardoning him or commuting any sentence. For one thing, the Obama-Biden regime didn't indict Julian Assange, it was Trump and his cabinet that pushed hard for it. Craig Murray attended all the various court hearings in London on the matter and has written at length about it at his blog. The surveillance-security state knows no party differentiation. The Borg look out for the Borg.
You're probably right, but my main point was not about Republicans specifically pardoning him but just the general idea that it's not unprecedented, as 2 of the previous biggest leakers in history were pardoned/commuted/exonerated. So I was merely bringing up the possibility that, given the historical precedent, this isn't necessarily the end of the road for Teixeira.
With that said, Trump is supposedly a new 'Dark Maga' reborn and radicalized version of his former self, and some people believe he now recognizes his past mistakes, so who knows maybe there's a chance he WOULD do such a thing. But I'm not holding my breath either.
Fair enough, there's always a chance. But I can't imagine the Borg/establishment actually letting Trump win again, and if he does, who does he choose for his inner circle? It'd have to be a totally different cast of characters if he really had a "Dark Maga" rebirth and actually wants to make anything happen as such. And I can't even imagine the number of trials, "scandals" and other Russia/Ukrainegate type bullshit that would come flooding over us, especially if he picks guys like Flynn for his cabinet. The shit would hit the fan, people would lose their fucking minds, LOL. (all of this said, I'm not a fan of Trump and don't think that *any* President can make or is allowed to make any significant fundamental changes to how things are done in D.C. or American embassies around the world)
Most likely. I'm just giving a possibility, but not saying it's actually likely. Maybe 70/30 or 80/20. I don't think in absolutes, strictly in probability distributions.
I think Trump relied on Pompeo for advice on this and it was bad advice. Trump should’ve known better, but he was a political neophyte and was probably respectful of Pompeo’s CIA past. Of course, CIA experience is the biggest red flag for pathological leanings.
In a vacuum this war could certainly carry on until 2030. But time is on Russia’s side and there are far too many potential game changers floating about. Whatever your (public) thoughts are on the timeline of the de dollarization already in progress there is going to come a point; especially next year (election), where US politicians can ill afford to be writing checks to fund this war. As inflation continues to increase, and it shall, the public (sheep) will become incensed.
It’s not the Ukraine that can’t hold out it’s their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. Theres a multitude of other things that could screw things up for U Sam too. Time is not on the side of the GAE as the monetary system grows weaker and other countries abandon their crazy uncle their plans will continue to unravel.
You're right, I was outlining it as a possibility but realistically my own prediction is probably for the war to last to somewhere in 2024-2025 at the latest, simply because:
1. I think Russia is going to turn up the heat much more than we're currently seeing
2. There are far huger things that are going to happen which will dwarf the Ukrainian conflict between now and 2030, such as a potential U.S./China war which is now ramping up slowly, and a U.S. secession/Civil War crisis that I long predicted would happen by around 2030 as I believe Texas and some other states will likely finally ditch the sinking ship, which will be a Black Swan event that would change everything.
Yes, even here in quiet Maine, USA, civil war is looking like it might be. Not sure what it will look like - probably not battle lines quite but massive disobedience and civil unrest. Yeeesh, look at zerohedge for cities around USA melting down. Maybe lots of fires, roads blocked, grid and utilities down. Just guessing. The whole economic picture falls apart - maybe like "The Road".
That is interesting. I would be very interested to see your analysis on
1. What a U.S. - China war may look like with the lessons from the Ukrainian War as a framework. I have thought for a while that the Ukrainian War is WW3's Spanish Civil War.
2. In a similar vein, what a U.S. secession/Civil war might look like.
You have a talent for in-depth yet readable analysis. I bet you could shed a little light on the shapes of things to come.
The potential fallout scenarios are vast. In another recent comment I left on your site I mentioned that I was not so worried anymore. There's too damn many bullets to dodge them all. Brought to us by arrogant and insane leaders along with a pacified public willing to go along to get along.
Up until fall of last year I felt like we were in a race against time to be able to put the brakes on. My instincts told me the key was to turn/red pill as many normies as possible and we could become the immovable object. It was the correct hunch (see below) but unfortunately an impossible task.
Severe pain will break the masses at some point. Unfortunately we must go through it as well. All we can do is hope the hurt still comes before the situation gets too bad here. We need to be able to communicate and respond; whatever that looks like. I see little hope of that too but there just might be something that can rock the foundation to its core.
The masses coming to grips with the fact that they might have injected a toxin Western Govts strongly encouraged/mandated might be that something. I have seen anecdotal evidence aplenty along with factual statistics from people like Edward Dowd. He can get his hands on the actuarial data from the largest group life insurance companies in the world. Spikes in all cause mortality amongst the working age 18-64 confirm it is more than anecdotal.
Some are coming around to this but nowhere near in the numbers we need. However late last year something happened that for whatever reason grabbed America's attention. The Damar Hamelin incident began to spiral faster than the media could handle. What happened next assures me that my hunch was correct about red pilling the masses. Its exactly why they slowed their roll on the mandates. This time last year is when people started to understand the shots were NOT effective after Omicron swept through. Joe Normie was left wondering why his friends and family were getting just as/or sicker than the unsaintly unjabbed.
I want to believe the 2nd amendment was the reason, it played its part in the US, but the real concern was the masses coming to terms. Once the herd finally sees thru the Overton Window fate will urge them to look much deeper and more often. Back to Hamelin, one must recall the massive campaign to damage control the situation that erupted. They did everything to control it....they were successful but a lesson should have been learned. They're not omnipotent and they are scared.
Hard to say what could trigger this to jolt the zeitgeist into worldwide panic and turmoil. But understand it could indeed happen. It is really the best chance I think we have at this point. If any of you have taken it I know some tips that might help you with it. All very non invasive and I have learned them from Doctors like McCullough (most published cardiologist before covid) and Dr Ryan Cole.
Thank you for all you do Simplicius. Your works speaks for itself!!
it came to mind that w bush began spending for the war machine at real level equal up with the reagan build up. that there was no inflation is due to china imports, and greenspan blowing the housing bubble with near zero interest rates,,,,, everyone was house rich until they weren't... then we had the great financial crisis of 2008!
so far ukraine is small potatoes but usa has already sold off its petrol reserves to keep oil down, and has 16T on the federal reserve balance sheet.
inflation coming and the housing is already bubbled above 2006!
regarding ukraine offensives: russian forces' leadership are well schooled in modern military history, the lessons of kasserein pass, kursk and 1944 ardennnes are relevant.....
as to maskirovka: soon as a point is engaged deep recon would look for the follow on mechanized force and build response based on the above examples. infrared and certain radars can pick out decoys.
response to atacms or f-16 (whose support tail would aggravate already problematic usaf f-16 readiness) could be knocking out e-3 and p-8 aircraft within 'sensor' range of russian land now attacked by ukraine. aka crimea, donbas and kherson. or knock out a keyhole!
Just finished the rest of the excellent Sitrep. Damn talk about thorough. It's going to take me some time to digest it all, but I think 2027-2029 sounds about right for when Ukraine finally ceases to be as a state. What happens between now and then is anyone's guess and as you mention, a Black Swan type event can be manufactured at any moment. If history is any guide it'll be the Americans, Poles, UK and Germans behind it and not Russia if so.
That having been said, personally I wish Russia would just end this ASAP with air superiority and force Zelensky or whoever the next puppet will be to the negotiation (read: surrender) table. Thing is the same people that squelched a peace agreement the last 4-5x (Minsk I, II, Putin's last ditch proposals in Dec/Jan and BoJo's "surprise" visit to _elensky when negotiations were said to be imminent way back in April of 2022) are not interested in anything resembling peace either, and they'll be happy to see this thing stretch out over the next 5 years. They don't care how many Ukrainian lives are lost; just that the share prices in their MIC portfolios continue to rise. Fuckin' sad, really. These people are psychopaths.
Ellsberg was set for a life sentence but the judge threw out the case because Nixon broke into his psychiatrist's office, and tapped his phone, tainting the whole case.
Trump was in office from 2016-2020 and did not pardon Snowden or Assange, much less Manning.
Also, I find the "gay Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their rights" article to be hilarious. As a society, Ukraine is arguably less gay-friendly than Saudi Arabia (gay sex legal as a matter of law but any open displays of homosexuality a good way to get maimed or killed vs. gay sex officially a death penalty offense, but men regularly having sex with men, boys, and whatnot on the QT).
Trump actively INDICTED Assange where the previous regime had thought about it but declined to do so. So yeah, I think Simplicius is wrong about any pending Republican pardon/commutation for Teixeira. For me, the key takeaway and proof that Trump did in fact take an active role in pushing for the indictment is that "Obama didn't do it." We all know that Trump was highly motivated to "undo" anything Obama did and to do what he hadn't.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/09/your-man-in-the-public-gallery-assange-hearing-day-8/
"Fitzgerald asked how this related to the Trump administration. Rogers said that Trump was a threat to Wikileaks because he comes from a position of quite extreme hostility to transparency and accountability in his administration. Fitzgerald suggested the incoming Trump administration had demonstrated this hostility to Assange and desire to prosecute. Rogers replied that yes, the hostility had been evidenced in a series of statements right across the senior members of the Trump administration. It was motivated by Trump’s characterisation of any adverse information as “fake news”.
Fitzgerald asked whether the motivation for the current prosecution was criminal or political? Rogers replied “the latter”. This was a part of the atypical behaviour of the Trump administration; it prosecutes on political motivation. They see openness as a particular threat to this administration. This also related to Trump’s obsessive dislike of his predecessor. His administration would prosecute Assange precisely because Obama did not prosecute Assange. Also the incoming Trump administration had been extremely annoyed by the commutation of Chelsea Manning’s sentence, a decision they had no power to revoke. For that the prosecution of Assange could be vicarious revenge.
Several senior administration members had advocated extremely long jail sentences for Assange and some had even mooted the death penalty, although Rogers realised that was technically impossible through this process.
Fitzgerald asked whether Assange’s political opinions were of a type protected by the Refugee Convention. Rogers replied yes. Persecution for political opinion is a solid reason to ask for refugee status. Assange’s actions are motivated by his political stance. Finally Fitzgerald then asked whether Rogers saw political significance in the fact that Assange was not prosecuted under Obama. Rogers replied yes, he did. This case is plainly affected by fundamental political motivation emanating from Trump himself."
Trump cultists make excuse after excuse for Trump, the way Obama groupies used to.
Yeah US political cultists are so damned annoying. And you're right about Trump and Obama. Over at Moon of Alabama, I've been saying for a while that what kind of distinguishes them from other recent presidents is that they didn't so much have voters or supporters, but actual fans (aka fanatics).
You probably witnessed the verbal diarrhea battle I got into with a dude at Taibbi's Substack over Clarence Thomas. I made it clear that I would like to see ANY judge engaging in this kind of (well documented by now) behavior subjected to investigation and, if warranted, impeachment. Then there's the part that partisan tribalists never seem to get about it not just being corruption but that even *the appearance* of corruption dramatically lowers the public faith in institutions. Don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole again but I did mute that thread finally after getting replies from 2AM all the way to 6AM, but geez. There's this pervasive attitude among Americans (probably other nationalities too) that so long as "my team" is doing it, it's OK and anything anyone else says contrary can only be "the other team" trying to hurt us. It's gotten beyond ridiculous.
The thing with tribalism and bad faith is that they drive out even handedness and good faith.
Say's Law doesn't just apply to the currency.
Yes. I always thought Trump and Obama are basically same people, peddling "hope and change" without any substance, although with different "styles.". Naturally, they get same cultist following who insist that they (and their god) are different, too.
Trump's speech patterns were very conducive to the crowds accepting his message. And the message itself was very promising. Like MAGA. Who would be against that, right?
A few issues with multi year war scenario: Ukraine is an important part of the "Belt and Road" plan.
Russian losses are high, it does not mater that Ukraine is losing 7x more, how willing is the Russian public to bear that cost in lives and coin? As long as the AFU is able to hit Russian civilians in the LNR, DNR it will generate headlines in Russia, how long will the public tolerate it, there are plenty of voices in Russia that demand a crushing blow.
I have been repeating this like a parrot since the last summer but: the real goal is to make the EU scream in pain and they are not screaming loud enough, yet.
Europeans ⁸like* being slaves.
To give one example, everyone in Europe knows that the United States and its minions blew up Nordstream, but nobody, and certainly nobody of influence and authority, dares do anything about it, or even speak up in public.
Well, depends what you mean by 'high'. Russian losses, currently around 15-17k KIA are really a drop in the bucket of a 145 million population country. A disproportionate amount of the losses also appears to be from provincial areas, which are typically the least politically motivated and have the least 'voice' and influence in society. This is not simply by 'design', by the way, in terms of some devious plot by Putin to use up non-ethnic Russians as cannonfodder. It's a simple reality of economics. Provincial areas in any country are typically lower educated, and have less justifiable excuses to get out of mobilization. In urban areas like Moscow, a lot more people are in Universities and such which gives them official exemptions from mobilization, seeing as how the mobilized are taken only from a pool of reserves, and to be in the reserves you had to have served, and to have served you had to have not gone to University since conscription in Russia is only for people who do not attend: https://www.rt.com/russia/563477-students-mobilization-deferment-decree/
But my point being that, since the provincial areas are likely bearing more of the losses, it naturally creates a buffer where the cosmopolitan big city society, which has more of the voice and political influence, is not feeling the effects of the war at all. So the chances for some type of societal uprising you're describing are very minimal. And recent polls show that Putin's approval rating continues to remain sky high over 80%.
So as far as public tolerating it, there is no evidence whatsoever thus far to suggest that it won't tolerate it.
However, it's difficult to project very far into the future. Certainly the things I said are true for the time being, but 5-7 years in the future is very difficult to project and things could conceivably change. But what I'm saying is there is no real reason yet for us to think they WILL change, as there is no real uproar in society at all other than some 5th/6th column paid propagandists.
One could say the same about American losses in Vietnam. America left all the same.
Losses are about the only semi-apt comparison there. The Vietnam war got progressively massively unpopular. It spurred entire cultural movements and counter-cultures. There is nothing even remotely resembling that in Russian society currently. Just small mouse-peeps from 5th/6th column NGOs while the majority of the population supports the war.
With that said, it's still young. That COULD change in time. But I'm referring to the present.
Could the Ukraine war become a Russian Vietnam eventually down the line? Of course, just like Afghanistan and Chechen War 1 both were to some extent. But the bigger question you're not asking is, could the Ukraine war become an Afghanistan/Vietnam for the U.S.? And who is the one more likely to incur such a scenario? The Russian political/societal climate is currently far more stable than the American one, and as mentioned elsewhere, America is actually blowing far more $$$ on the Ukraine conflict than Russia is.
The Vietnam War was popular at first in the United States as well.
The United States can withdraw from Ukraine at any time, and with practically zero troop losses.
Edit: I should have added that the United States has vastly more soft power than does Russia at the moment. Not fair, but that's the way it is.
Well firstly I'd argue Russia has far more soft power currently, depending on which area of the world you're referring to. A large swath of the world, U.S. has lost all influence. In Europe--sure.
And U.S. can withdraw at any time, right--and it would incur massive reputational damage if it did so.
The fact of the matter is, U.S. is currently losing badly in the war and it's stuck between rock and hard place because it can't easily escalate to a victory yet it can't pull out without literally being humiliated on the world stage and possibly losing the last semblance of its global image.
Western elites don't care what Russians think. Russian elites (and not only) covet approval of the West, the Harvard degree, the European labels, the lame Hollywood movies, etc.. Not just in Europe or Russia, but throughout the world. China, too.
That's soft power.
The US will suffer reputational damage if it leaves Ukraine (like Vietnam) but it can leave. Russia cannot, lest it be carved up.
Their losses are around 100 a day. You misunderstood the latter part of the comment, only uprising possible is to force Putin to stop pussyfooting.
RU AF losses are very far from 100 a day. If you look at Mediazona figures (which is an openly anti-Russian project sponsored by the West and working with the BBC), their current estimates of Russian losses across all AF types are below 10/day on most days. For example, there's been just 1 confirmed casualty among RU VKS pilots in the past 6 months.
The only ones who did lose substantially more on some days (but never 100/day, at max around 50-60/day) are Wagner/inmates. And I'd argue that those losses aren't really that big of a deal for Russian society, as those guys generally approach war with a fatalistic, self-sacrificial mindset, and don't mind taking those losses as long as they inflict far more on the UAF.
That was back then. Russian MOD gives figures for Ukrainian losses, divide that by 10 and you get Russian losses. On a slow day Ukrainians are losing 200-300 men. It adds up over time.
EU is set to pony up 500 billions every year in order to maintain Kiev under artificial breathing. I’m from Paris and if you don’t hear the screams u are deaf and we can’t do nothing about it
I applaud the people of France, you are a great inspiration to the rest of us in the vassal states of Europe but France is not the EU.
Your government cares nothing for you. As you pointed out, there isn't anything you can do about this, and the elites of France have no problem with a wholesale massacre of French citizens, if that will be what it takes for them maintain their grip on power.
You raise some good, valid points, Russia's demographic problem being the most important. But beyond the stated SMO goals and that of the December 2021 Security Proposals/Demands, what are the additional stated goals of Russia and China? Few seem to know that in his speech delivered on 21 September 2022 Putin made the following vow:
"It is in our historical tradition, in the fate of our people, to stop those who are striving for world domination, who threaten to dismember and enslave our Motherland, our Fatherland. We will do it now, and so it will be."
My paraphrase: We will stop those striving for world domination because that's what Russian's do, and we will again do it now; and we won't stop until we're done.
That vow's been reiterated on several occasions by Putin. A similar vow is also within China's Global Security Initiative which states No Hegemony will be allowed. Something very similar to both was stated in the Russia/China 4 February 2022 Joint Declaration, was reiterated in the recent Declarations made after the Xi/Putin Summit and is also contained within Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept that was published on 31 March 2023. If you've closely observed Russian FM Lavrov's rhetoric since February 2022--and more so now that the new Concept is out--his assignment to show to those willing to listen--most of the world--that it's the Outlaw US Empire and its gaggle of vassals who are the International law breakers, not Russia, and that Russia was completely within its rights to do what it did, is now doing, and will proceed to do. So, yes, the SMO within Ukraine will end with the extinguishing of the artificial entity that is Ukraine--whenever that occurs. And it ought to be very clear that whatever's said by the Collective West no longer matters to Russia as it sees that entire entity as operating outside the norms of International Law as laid down in the UN Charter. Do read Lavrov's remarks at the presser today in Caracas for a very good example.
No hegemony means no NATO and a defanged Outlaw US Empire. The latter has done Russia a great favor by attacking the EU, bombing the Nord Stream pipes, and applying all those illegal sanctions. Indeed, all its actions have weakened the entire Collective, which was already weak to begin with. NATO has a military force is a joke aside from its nukes that would be suicidal to use. The Collective was and remains geoeconomically dependent on Russia and also China. Neoliberal Parasitism has greatly weakened the Collective's industrial power and thus its military power while also creating a financial house of cards that will soon collapse as it's extremely unstable. Those currently holding power are incapable of diffusing the problems as their actions only serve to deepen them. So, time is very much on Russia's and China's side. At a presser earlier this month, Lavrov was asked about Russia being charged with interfering in any Western elections as has now been done; his reply was we don't need to as they're doing a very good job of it themselves, which is the truth.
An ancient maxim says not to interrupt your opponent when it's making a mistake. In the RoW's eyes, the Collective West continues to dig its hole ever deeper. Today's Global Times editorial said to Blinken and crew--Don't call us; we'll call you--along with sterner rhetoric. South Korea's playing a dangerous game of "loaning" its Master 155mm ammo and Paladin SPA systems that never transit the Pacific to the states but go to Ukraine, and its PM just lied about that arrangement which prompted Medvedev to say we'll provide arms to the North. The latest Russian economic indicators are quite positive and will continue to improve. Although it's not really spelled out anywhere, Putin has stated Russia's operating under a new economic concept, which amounts to state support for Russian's and their economy--a very different Third Way. The main inhibitor is the demographic problem--Russia needs more people, not for the military but to run its rapidly expanding economy. I expect at some point for legislation to subsidize the emigration of Russian's living outside Russia, particularly from the Baltics, but that will not be enough. Millions of people from CSTO nations already work within Russia, and millions more would migrate if the incentives were better, particularly the issue of housing which is a National Priority. And do take note that the remedy must be long lasting--multigenerational. Thus, the demographic problem will force the Go Slow policy that however must compromise with the political imperative to drive Ukie artillery out-of-range of Russian settlements--new and old.
It's that political imperative I see driving Russia's next major military moves: Something swift that pushes far is what's required, IMO. It makes sense for it to come from the North, but there must also be movement in the South. Yet, the other side of the coin regarding a conflict that lasts 5 more years must also be considered since Ukie manpower is already becoming more than limited along with its war material. It seems very likely that NATO will further step in by donning Ukie uniforms as it already has, which will create blowback in the nations they're drawn from, unless they're Polish/Baltic. Projected reports about the EU's energy situation for the 2023 Winter are not optimistic with Germany shutting down its last NPPs and Russian supplies of NPP fuel facing curtailment with no foreseeable substitutions. All these own goals just make Russian's smile. The other time consuming gamechanger is the new international financial system and its institutions that will bypass as many Outlaw US Empire choke points as possible. Imagine a vast apartment complex that's the world's nations which needs to be retrofitted with new plumbing and electrical systems and you can understand the complexity involved in that project. The current idea is to erect regional systems then tie them together as a whole, while not accommodating the Dollar/Euro Bloc until they cease being hegemonic.
So, there's my outline of the Grand Design based on what's already been declared and being constructed.
Dude start a substack :)
Too funny! I already have a VK, while you're not the first to make that suggestion, which I continue to mull, https://vk.com/id580896205
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends. Who he is & how he did it deflects from what was revealed re Ukr civil war. Leaks basically revealed what anyone paying close attention already knows. Meanwhile, Ukr is holding back Dneiper River floodwater at 5 dams north of Kherson. Some speculate it's for offensive purposes /re NuclearPP but my 2¢is it's defensive in anticipation of a fallback line to protect left bank after coming failed Ukr spring offensive is countered in mass by RFAF. If they flood the river it's instant defensive lines for the left bank & the west of Ukr. Leaked info gives excuse/time for Ukr to ramp up begging, delay offensive while dealing with recent increasingly heavy losses. Air Force w/Glide bombs are becoming a strategic & tactical game changer on fortified positions. Nothing major strategically will change till fields dry, giving everyone plenty of time to thrash this latest leaker to death...
Teixiera was a man child trying to impress friends.
People are complicated, your statement could be true without invalidating any of the earlier statements above. ‘Hath not a man-child eyes?’ ‘If you prick one, do they not bleed?’
Very in depth sit-rep.
I would add though, that Ukraine will cease to exist the moment the West/US quits pouring money into it. Which, reading the national and financial news, might be sooner than 2027.
At which point, Europe will have a bunch of heavily armed crazies to deal with, along with all the other problems that are being created.
Simplicius has another site, Dark Futura, about the various underlaying psychological issues driving the world and the directions it appears to be headed. It is safe to say these two forums, this one on present events and that one, will converge in the not too distant future, as the West reaches the end of its rope at a dead run.
Personally I think some of our issues are foundational. Remember democracy and republicanism originated in pantheistic cultures. The family as godhead. The Romans adopted a monotheistic sect as state religion as the Empire was rising from the ashes of the Republic. Basically The Big Guy Rules. The rest is history.
So those of us who didn't have our heads buried in the sand/up our assholes the last few decades will have another horizon to analyze. The Russians had their reality check, with the fall of the Soviet Union and now it's our turn.
Yes, this site as well as Dark Futura are “running” in tandem. The Spiritual War, and this SMO. Micro, Macro…is appears not to be just Global, but quite interpersonal…the evolutionary spin of the cycle of ages. In our hearts, families, locally, communities, regional, statewide, (USA), globally. I sure do vision the rise in consciousness coming from the East, and of course the BRICS nations. Ashes to ashes, all fall down…touring with the Grateful Dead in my early years….the West is appearing to…fall down❤️🇷🇺💙
We are linear, goal oriented creatures in a cyclical, circular, reciprocal, feedback generated reality and we are reaching the edge of the petri dish, so it's time to accept the world is round.
More yin and yang, than God Almighty.
The Empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.
Organisms synchronize, ecosystems harmonize.
We have to understand it isn't all just organism.
Not just the individual, but the society.
That's a good point and I agree. If the funding dried up today, then the war would be over by the end of this year. However, I'm not convinced yet that the funding will dry up any time soon though there are indications it will of course, at least to some extent. But we'll see how things play out. But you're right that my 2027-2030 projection is only in the event that the West continues to heavily subsidize and bankroll the Ukrainian state.
Funding is one factor. Military support is another. Last factor is Ukrainian regime support within the populace if losses continue to mount.
Military support will dry up or slow to trickle due to limitations on supply from production capacity and/or other conflicts.
Funding is peanuts compared to the total USG budget but will be slightly harder with political opposition and/or economic difficulties.
Regime stability is unknown to me. I don’t know how much info is coming out within Ukraine about the actual state of the war but I figure at some point - possibly after the offensive and Russia’s counter - it will be harder to hide casualties and the state of the AFU.
Simplicus might pick up the last topic in one of his (as aurai always) outstanding exposés.
By funding I just meant all subsidization in general, but yes it gets nuanced if you break it down--for instance a new huge IMF loan for Ukraine's federal gov't recently: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/imf-board-approves-156-bln-loan-ukraine-source-2023-03-31/
Ukraine is using a similar strategy to Russia that I wrote about above in another comment, advertently or not. Which is that a lot of the losses are coming from provincial regions, as Ukraine deliberately recruits from Russian-speaking regions the hardest, and lets pro-Regime regions get away with the most draft-dodging. These are the disenfranchised people in rural / provincial regions who already don't have much influence or political voice, so for their regions to have disproportionately huge losses does not create much political/societal blowback for the regime. It's a smart strategy.
This allows the cosmopolitans and urbanites in Kiev and elsewhere to continue partying and not really levy any pressure on the regime. The periphery regions suffer the hardest losses but they are the least influential, have the least 'voice' and influence and can be easily swept under the rug.
But of course as with always, nothing can go on forever.
One of the biggest key things we'll have to wait for and see, is whether Russia chooses to do any large crippling blows at the start of its own next offensive(s), which would cripple society economically to such an extent to finally create upheaval. For instance, we know that Russia is saving up mass amounts of missiles right now. I read a recent report from the Ukrainian side that said Russia may have upwards of 2,500 new long range guided missiles saved up soon for its own next phase of offensives.
If that's the case, we COULD see Russia unleash to finish off Ukraine economically. I.e. renewed attacks on power infrastructure, maybe bridges or other economically significant targets. If that's the case then it could bring the downfall much sooner.
If Russia wishes to finish off Kiev, what are needed are troops and a willingness to take the offensive.
I guess my sense is Ukraine is more a kleptocracy, with the ideology as cover. That if the money was turned off, it would make the collapse in Afghanistan look slow motion. Once the oligarchs realize the party is over, they will be racing for the door, if not already phoning it in, then their goons don't want to hang around and will be the ones scattering across Europe. Which will leave an enormous vacuum in the middle.
So the issue is when/if the funding gets cut. My sense is the de-dollarization of the world economy really is the pin in the balloon. There is just so much debt built into it, that at some moment the markets are going to get the sense it really is going down and it's going to be one of those few days/weeks event, where everyone runs for the door.
Maybe it will take awhile longer to play out, than a stock market crash, but the fact remains, this country has far more debt out there, than it can ever imagine paying off. At that point, Ukraine will be yesterday's newspaper.
My guess is the military support will run out first and the financial support shortly after. You can’t fire $100 bills at the Russians when they’re sending you 1500kg glide bombs 😀
So the question is, when do they stop the military support? Europe is at or near there already so the deciding factor is the U.S.
A change of government. Minimum Domestic stock pile limits hit with not much increase in production capacity. Or distracted by conflict(s) elsewhere.
Anything else?
Then the blowback begins.
The regime isn't interested in whether it has the support of its subjects, as long as it can enforce compliance.
It's getting to the point France can't even enforce compliance.
I have seen no evidence that the French police and army will hesitate to shoot if ordered to do so.
And if the French elites have to maintain their grip on power through wholesale massacre of French citizens, well, they won't lose a minute's sleep to conscience. Hell, their American and EU wide counterparts will praise their "hardheaded realism".
There is always that dichotomy of bottom up energy and top down order. Even galaxies are energy radiating out, as structure coalesces in.
The anarchies of desire, versus the tyrannies of judgement.
That said, the biggest danger for the West will be when the elites start fighting among themselves, because they have different power bases.
Meanwhile the rest of the world will have a moment of unity against the colonial history.
I'd change the wording of ThePhoenix from military support to "real goods", but he's spotted it too. The USD is a con-game now, with a few strokes of a keyboard more can be made. The importance of something like Ukraine or Afghanistan is that it must destroy most of these dollars, just as China was to lock them up in bonds, otherwise they flood back into the US and destroy the domestic value of the USD. "There is no replacement for the USD right now," but what the idiots who keep muttering that fact don't get is that does not mean it can't be destroyed. Soon enough we may well live in a world without a reserve currency. This is going to happen when "real goods" become so sparse that they can not be purchased at any price because there simply is not enough to go around. Karl Marx may not have been good at prescriptive advise, but he was terribly insightful on descriptive diagnosis.
edit: Oh crap, got distracted. I wanted to write a comment that the M2 Bradley/Strikers must mean depleted Uranium, in far larger quantities that the British tanks could possible spit out, are there with their chain guns.
Can’t you destroy the surplus of dollars through re-acquisition of the US debt? Not to mention, US paid
other countries for their stockpiles of old Soviet equipment.
What am I missing?
Q1: That's what bonds do, but you have to sell them rather than convince people to buy something with the dollars.
Q2: Old Soviet equipment will be replaced with very expensive US Equipment, they'll need those dollars and more.
Only NATO main battle tanks and the A-10s cannon use DU rounds. I'm pretty sure that the A-10 was the culprit in Serbia, Iraq, etc.
https://old.weaponsystems.net/weaponsystem/II04%20-%20Bushmaster.html
Great analysis once again!
The El Nino for this year is getting confirmed, which means it will be a much colder winter in Europe this year - requiring a lot more very expensive natural gas, just as they are in a deep recession. In addition, the US election cycle is rapidly heating up so the Dems will want to put Ukraine to media sleep mode for a while. Absent of a Ukraine real victory I can see the war falling off Western media attention and Western financial and military support. Then Ukraine could internally collapse, a bit like Germany at the end of 1918 after US ships helped hermetically seal the blockade.
Regarding the leaks it is what it is but why should I believe anything coming out of the government and it’s media controlled spokespeople.
This is another great report on the situation in Ukraine...
And you are exactly right and anyone following Putin’s Russia knows that there are more important things going on right now in both Russia and internationally other than pesky Ukrainian warmongers.
Putin is winning the war, keeping his economy humming and putting together a new world order alongside China.
Put all our leaders together for the past 50 years and they couldn’t accomplish just one of these tasks.
Yep, I’ve all trust and respect for the US government.
Oops Omitted the word “lost” in that last sentence
Yes, understood. My vernacular is often missing the “important “ term, or word.
Wow! That's a lot of lost lost.
Russia may welcome Kiev's attempt at offensive ops as it will afford them the opportunity to destroy Kiev's best trained and equipped units (again) from what are now well prepared and staffed defensive positions. Russia would no doubt suffer more casualties and equipment loss if they went on offense to overwhelm Ukrainian units. On the downside Kiev will be able to continue shelling innocent civilians in the Donbas region if Ukrainian artillery isn't pushed back further.
Mao had a problem when he won China from Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT. He'd captured most of the KMT's army, only a fraction of it made the trip to Taiwan. There was a threat that these men could take up arms if the KMT was to re-invade China with USA/Japan's help. Murdering them in mass would be terrible PR and could lead to a long gorilla struggle weakening his barely established government. Fortunately the US Airforce solved his problem by bombing these men when they were sent to Korea as "volunteers" and those that survived became imbittered with USA. I often wonderZElenskyy and ilk are using the Russian Army to help clean their Western Ukraine of Russian, Hungarian, Roma, and other minorities.
It is in fact happening exactly as you describe. I reported previously a chart showing that Ukraine is in fact heavily disproportionately recruiting from the Russian-speaking regions and is sending them off to die and basically 'cleansing' them.
Meanwhile, it's been proven via statistics that the most anti-Russian regions have the highest fleeing and draft-dodging rate, i.e. Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, etc.
I have “sensed” this for sometime. The “remote viewing” I am able to muster as I view our fourth planet from the sun…what chess pieces are being moved about, who is doing the bidding of who…to what end…a long, tortuous journey, in my, very short life time.💙🌍💙
That 21 year old reservist Jack T. was provided top secret access is either an eloborate setup or an epic intelligence failure of the U.S. Govt. I give it 50/50 odds. In any event, it has no real bearing on the war.
Regarding the Ukraine counter-offensive, I have said before to IGNORE EVERY SINGLE WORD Ukraine says about it. It is all disinformation. They are trying to fool Russia and get an edge, and they have done so very clumsily, foolishly. It is obvious to any thinking person that announcing your plans to the enemy is simple disinformation. They also have to feed the Western MSM and thir masters. Meanwhile, Russia has introduced the 500 and 1500 kg glide bombs dropped for SU-34/35 aircraft, and is blowing away the Ukraine frontline ammo dumps and artillary and personnel clusters. Am hearing they are dropping 15-20 a day now. I suspect that when Ukraine launches its offensive, Russia will launch an offensive in an other sector and catch the Ukrainians with their pants down.
Recommend to all that following Western media on this war is an expenditure of valauable time on 100% propaganda and disinformation. I do not follow it as it has no truth. Not a stitch.
re: the destroyed leopard ... looks like the 2 tanks were jousting and the 'winner' knocked the head off the loser
I meant to ask about that Russian tank T90 that was seen in Louisiana abandoned on a big rig flatbed.
Supposedly captured by Ukrainians is a hoax or what??? The pics looked authentic.
It's real, I was going to do a writeup on it in this report but it got too lengthy so I'm still considering doing a separate write up on it. With that said, it's a T-90A which is the old version Russia doesn't really even use anymore. They are converting all the old A's into T-90M which are the modern ones. But there are still a few things even the 90A has that American tanks don't have, that the U.S. plans to study.
Oh good, I think it would be interesting to hear what you think and can find out about that... maybe you can jam it in on one of your next articles if have time
Sorry man, but I think you're dead wrong on any Republican president pardoning him or commuting any sentence. For one thing, the Obama-Biden regime didn't indict Julian Assange, it was Trump and his cabinet that pushed hard for it. Craig Murray attended all the various court hearings in London on the matter and has written at length about it at his blog. The surveillance-security state knows no party differentiation. The Borg look out for the Borg.
You're probably right, but my main point was not about Republicans specifically pardoning him but just the general idea that it's not unprecedented, as 2 of the previous biggest leakers in history were pardoned/commuted/exonerated. So I was merely bringing up the possibility that, given the historical precedent, this isn't necessarily the end of the road for Teixeira.
With that said, Trump is supposedly a new 'Dark Maga' reborn and radicalized version of his former self, and some people believe he now recognizes his past mistakes, so who knows maybe there's a chance he WOULD do such a thing. But I'm not holding my breath either.
Fair enough, there's always a chance. But I can't imagine the Borg/establishment actually letting Trump win again, and if he does, who does he choose for his inner circle? It'd have to be a totally different cast of characters if he really had a "Dark Maga" rebirth and actually wants to make anything happen as such. And I can't even imagine the number of trials, "scandals" and other Russia/Ukrainegate type bullshit that would come flooding over us, especially if he picks guys like Flynn for his cabinet. The shit would hit the fan, people would lose their fucking minds, LOL. (all of this said, I'm not a fan of Trump and don't think that *any* President can make or is allowed to make any significant fundamental changes to how things are done in D.C. or American embassies around the world)
Trump had four years. He already is what he is - weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Most likely. I'm just giving a possibility, but not saying it's actually likely. Maybe 70/30 or 80/20. I don't think in absolutes, strictly in probability distributions.
I wouldn't give it 20%.
Borg, one and the same, yup, yup.❤️🔥❤️
I think Trump relied on Pompeo for advice on this and it was bad advice. Trump should’ve known better, but he was a political neophyte and was probably respectful of Pompeo’s CIA past. Of course, CIA experience is the biggest red flag for pathological leanings.
Pompeo only was in office for the latter part of Trump's presidency.
In a vacuum this war could certainly carry on until 2030. But time is on Russia’s side and there are far too many potential game changers floating about. Whatever your (public) thoughts are on the timeline of the de dollarization already in progress there is going to come a point; especially next year (election), where US politicians can ill afford to be writing checks to fund this war. As inflation continues to increase, and it shall, the public (sheep) will become incensed.
It’s not the Ukraine that can’t hold out it’s their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. Theres a multitude of other things that could screw things up for U Sam too. Time is not on the side of the GAE as the monetary system grows weaker and other countries abandon their crazy uncle their plans will continue to unravel.
Love that cell phone trick btw. Very cool idea.
You're right, I was outlining it as a possibility but realistically my own prediction is probably for the war to last to somewhere in 2024-2025 at the latest, simply because:
1. I think Russia is going to turn up the heat much more than we're currently seeing
2. There are far huger things that are going to happen which will dwarf the Ukrainian conflict between now and 2030, such as a potential U.S./China war which is now ramping up slowly, and a U.S. secession/Civil War crisis that I long predicted would happen by around 2030 as I believe Texas and some other states will likely finally ditch the sinking ship, which will be a Black Swan event that would change everything.
Yes, even here in quiet Maine, USA, civil war is looking like it might be. Not sure what it will look like - probably not battle lines quite but massive disobedience and civil unrest. Yeeesh, look at zerohedge for cities around USA melting down. Maybe lots of fires, roads blocked, grid and utilities down. Just guessing. The whole economic picture falls apart - maybe like "The Road".
That is interesting. I would be very interested to see your analysis on
1. What a U.S. - China war may look like with the lessons from the Ukrainian War as a framework. I have thought for a while that the Ukrainian War is WW3's Spanish Civil War.
2. In a similar vein, what a U.S. secession/Civil war might look like.
You have a talent for in-depth yet readable analysis. I bet you could shed a little light on the shapes of things to come.
The potential fallout scenarios are vast. In another recent comment I left on your site I mentioned that I was not so worried anymore. There's too damn many bullets to dodge them all. Brought to us by arrogant and insane leaders along with a pacified public willing to go along to get along.
Up until fall of last year I felt like we were in a race against time to be able to put the brakes on. My instincts told me the key was to turn/red pill as many normies as possible and we could become the immovable object. It was the correct hunch (see below) but unfortunately an impossible task.
Severe pain will break the masses at some point. Unfortunately we must go through it as well. All we can do is hope the hurt still comes before the situation gets too bad here. We need to be able to communicate and respond; whatever that looks like. I see little hope of that too but there just might be something that can rock the foundation to its core.
The masses coming to grips with the fact that they might have injected a toxin Western Govts strongly encouraged/mandated might be that something. I have seen anecdotal evidence aplenty along with factual statistics from people like Edward Dowd. He can get his hands on the actuarial data from the largest group life insurance companies in the world. Spikes in all cause mortality amongst the working age 18-64 confirm it is more than anecdotal.
Some are coming around to this but nowhere near in the numbers we need. However late last year something happened that for whatever reason grabbed America's attention. The Damar Hamelin incident began to spiral faster than the media could handle. What happened next assures me that my hunch was correct about red pilling the masses. Its exactly why they slowed their roll on the mandates. This time last year is when people started to understand the shots were NOT effective after Omicron swept through. Joe Normie was left wondering why his friends and family were getting just as/or sicker than the unsaintly unjabbed.
I want to believe the 2nd amendment was the reason, it played its part in the US, but the real concern was the masses coming to terms. Once the herd finally sees thru the Overton Window fate will urge them to look much deeper and more often. Back to Hamelin, one must recall the massive campaign to damage control the situation that erupted. They did everything to control it....they were successful but a lesson should have been learned. They're not omnipotent and they are scared.
Hard to say what could trigger this to jolt the zeitgeist into worldwide panic and turmoil. But understand it could indeed happen. It is really the best chance I think we have at this point. If any of you have taken it I know some tips that might help you with it. All very non invasive and I have learned them from Doctors like McCullough (most published cardiologist before covid) and Dr Ryan Cole.
Thank you for all you do Simplicius. Your works speaks for itself!!
i was thinking about war and inflation.....
it came to mind that w bush began spending for the war machine at real level equal up with the reagan build up. that there was no inflation is due to china imports, and greenspan blowing the housing bubble with near zero interest rates,,,,, everyone was house rich until they weren't... then we had the great financial crisis of 2008!
so far ukraine is small potatoes but usa has already sold off its petrol reserves to keep oil down, and has 16T on the federal reserve balance sheet.
inflation coming and the housing is already bubbled above 2006!
and saudis will sell oil for yuan!!!
Yep that's a pretty huge cross-convergence of factors.
regarding ukraine offensives: russian forces' leadership are well schooled in modern military history, the lessons of kasserein pass, kursk and 1944 ardennnes are relevant.....
as to maskirovka: soon as a point is engaged deep recon would look for the follow on mechanized force and build response based on the above examples. infrared and certain radars can pick out decoys.
response to atacms or f-16 (whose support tail would aggravate already problematic usaf f-16 readiness) could be knocking out e-3 and p-8 aircraft within 'sensor' range of russian land now attacked by ukraine. aka crimea, donbas and kherson. or knock out a keyhole!
Just finished the rest of the excellent Sitrep. Damn talk about thorough. It's going to take me some time to digest it all, but I think 2027-2029 sounds about right for when Ukraine finally ceases to be as a state. What happens between now and then is anyone's guess and as you mention, a Black Swan type event can be manufactured at any moment. If history is any guide it'll be the Americans, Poles, UK and Germans behind it and not Russia if so.
That having been said, personally I wish Russia would just end this ASAP with air superiority and force Zelensky or whoever the next puppet will be to the negotiation (read: surrender) table. Thing is the same people that squelched a peace agreement the last 4-5x (Minsk I, II, Putin's last ditch proposals in Dec/Jan and BoJo's "surprise" visit to _elensky when negotiations were said to be imminent way back in April of 2022) are not interested in anything resembling peace either, and they'll be happy to see this thing stretch out over the next 5 years. They don't care how many Ukrainian lives are lost; just that the share prices in their MIC portfolios continue to rise. Fuckin' sad, really. These people are psychopaths.
Ellsberg was set for a life sentence but the judge threw out the case because Nixon broke into his psychiatrist's office, and tapped his phone, tainting the whole case.