Things keep ratcheting up in Ukraine, with France continuing its saber-rattling escalatory spiral. Let’s quickly run down the new separate signals being sent from all across NATO: In a new Le Parisien piece, Macron reportedly reiterated the eventual need for ground troops to save Ukraine:
If the French are so foolish as to openly deploy in Ukraine, they must be attacked vigorously and continuously, maximizing their casualties. It's the only lesson that will work, apparently.
It's what happened to the "Mercenaries" at the start of the war, and it's what will happen tk the French. Remember that huge missile attack on the military base hosting the inflood of Western volunteers? Well, all the basement dwelling NAFO bros reconsidered going to the party really fast.
Just driving in with 2,000 French troops and going to work? What is that French general thinking of? The troops need air cover to protect missile/air defense systems to protect the troops. And this air cover will fly out of…which airfield again?
My hunch is it dissuaded the casual would-be mercs, who thought this was COD Zombies mode hunting "Russian orcs who charge at you with shovels". Not that those guys are especially useful in war, but as we seen, the AFU isn't very picky.
But my point remains. The potential PR win of France having to bring home potentially hundreds of soldiers in body bags and wheelchairs would be a terrible blow to any public support for a NATO intervention. So placing NATO troops at certain POIs as a deterrant effect (as it was floated several times) would not only dissuade Russia from striking them, it would encourage it. It would not only look bad, but France would have no recourse. What are they gonna do? Cry foul and run behind mama's skirt? (To the ICJ or the US) Now that would shatter the illusion of French military power (can't even defeat a country with the GDP less than Italy). Or they could take the L and move on.
Sending troops is kind of a lose-lose for them, unless they can demonstrate results, which in this case would be a turning of the tide of the war. Which isn't possible with the timeframe and manpower (and acceptable number of NATO casualties before the public gets too outraged) they have available.
No it would not. It would sicken the loved ones of the whole enterprise, all the romanticising of war. The clamour for it to end before even more lives are lost would be intolerable.
If Eu and US citizens are starting to become reluctant to give Ukraine money anymore, how willing do you think they are to givr Ukraine the blood of their sons?
I'm not talking about the politicians, obviously they want to send more troops regardless of losses. But the people are pissed off already, this would be a kamikaze move for any government.
The EU doesn't seem too reluctant to give money from here (the US reluctance has nothing to do with principle and everything to do with trying to harm Biden) and it's not the citizens who decide. It's the politicians, and their kids won't be going.
No effect yet. After that incident, the French government disowned them, and the MSM ran a bunch of articles claiming Russian reports of French victims in the strike were information warfare.
Amusingly postscript to that -- A supposed partial list of the deceased from unofficial sources inside UA was circulated via Sputnik etc, and then a couple of guys on that list turned up still alive. They then gave interviews to the press to debunk the Sputnik story, and went on to talk about their happy times in the UA International Legion. But the French position remained that there are no mercenaries there.
As the numbers go up they'll have to reckon with it more honestly, but doesn't seem to be the case today. Macron's more recent pronouncements might help change this too.
The stream of maimed and killed French soldiers coming out of Ukraine, with no material impact on Russian operations likely, may end Macron's power. If so no other European "leader" would be foolish enough to send their military into Ukraine. Perhaps Macron's recklessness will prove to be a turning point in the conflict.
I was wondering about that, too. France is home to some 67 million people. Hard to see how a few thousand extra patients (wounded soldiers) would cause major disruptions to the health care system.
It is gaslighting. Macron's austerity policies are finishing off what remains of the once renown French hospital system. He used the Covid excuse in 2020 and 2021. Now it’s the Big Bad Putin fault. Anything to avoid taking responsibility.
The problem is that Russian has failed to respond adequately to escalation after escalation, which is why WWIII is more or less baked in the cake at this point.
You are right. They need to blow up things in a big way to stop the other side nickling and diming them to death and to show they mean business. They will get to WWIII in 1,000 baby steps and a lot of civilian casualties. Like picking up your hand in a bridge game with 13 high card points and immediately bidding “four spades”. Puts the cooler on the other team.
Nope. Russia is doing things the right way. NATO was always going to escalate. Wiping out the Ukrainian forces before NATO introduces troops in mass is the only way to avoid WWIII, however small that chance was.
Don't worry, you will get your wish. Europe is lucky, they will receive only a fraction of the mushroom clouds USA gets.
I still don't think NATO is going to escalate. They are full of shit. The home populations won't tolerate the casualties, and if they think otherwise...they are crazy.
The US leadership figured out that we certainly won't tolerate it. This Ukraine shit is going to lose an election if they press it, when they already are at risk over the Gaza genocide.
I do remember the US government's unwillingness to call up reserves for the endless wars. This meant that the people who fought in SWA were almost exclusively active duty or National Guardsmen drawn from the South, West and inner cities. Or, to put it more bluntly, the lower class that had no contact with the elites that run Washington. Baghdad was awash with Guard divisions with weird patches. They knew exactly what they were doing. Keeping the death and loss away from the general public. Nothing has changed except that the South and West are no longer reliably enlisting, hence the current enlistment crisis. I can't imagine things are different in Europe.
Macron provokes (following orders) a public panic campaign. Macron sends troops to Ucraine (symbolic contingent). False flag attack at the Paris olympic games (26th July). It was Putin... Bullshit? 4 months to go and the Olympic swimming pool has not started being built yet.
what's really weird is that 90% of the olympic venues are being made out of wood, not steel. No idea if one of these shit buildings will collapse or not.
Nope, this will have absolutely no effect on the likelihood of a Russian offensive from the north. Russia doesn’t care whether there are Ukrainian troops or NATO troops there. I would even say that the Russian army will be happy to destroy the NATO troops. And they can't do anything with that. If they are thinking that Ukraine's allies have a right to deploy military forces on Ukrainian territory, then they must understand that Russia can attack this forces and this won’t even be an escalation because Russia will just say that it is attacking the Ukrainian army and cannot distinguish it from NATO troops because they use the same equipment and weapons.
I'm sure Russian military folks can't wait for these troops to come in. Whatever inhibitions the Russians might have against killing Ukrainians will obviously not apply to interventionists, and they will likely want to make a vivid and convincing demonstration to make other "willing" think twice before getting involved. And also to show this little Napoleon it's place.
Anyone in service will be thinking of resignation, retirement or going AWOL. The rest like the volunteers are likely psychologically damaged, so no loss.
Beat me to it. None of the articles posed the question of whether French soldiers would agree to this. Sure, the Foreign Legion would probably be gung-ho, but the ordinary squaddies? No way!
Like the Abram’s, Leopards and Patriots, any NATO troops in Ukraine will be passionately hunted by the Russian military. It’s a death sentence for any sizable formation of NATO soldiers.
I'd wager inserting evidence free, overtly negative assertions of your opinion relentlessly into the discussion would more than meet most people's definition of a concern troll. Is there a thread in these comments where you haven't repeatedly denounced Russia's failure to continue escalating the conflict?
I, like a lot of people here I would suspect, have no direct military experience, so most of us are seeking to understand the conflict on a more rational level than the 3rd rate propaganda being pumped out by western media.
Given the choice between a 21st century Russia consistently out performing the western charicateurs of it in all regards, or listening to the resident 'pro RF' arm chair expert (every alternative media platform has at least one) bemoan Putin's lack of this that or the other, I know where I'm putting my money at this point.
People in this camp seem to follow 2 lines of thought that I've seen;
Putin is weak and should be replaced by a stronger leader, the SMO would be over by now if only he'd be more aggressive - current pace allows time for some kind of NATO false flag.
Or
Its all some WEF set dressing being moved around and Putin is infact on board with the whole plan to impoverish the world's population and render us all into serfdom.
Both of which are laughably simple lines of logic in a conflict like this.
Your lack of any substantive response says a lot. If you weren't the definition of a concern troll you'd exercise the opportunity to elaborate on your points and demonstrate the evidence that informs them.
Russians fight to win a war, not to kill someone. It’s only the stupid Ukrainian Nazis who have the whole point of existence is to kill Russians or do something bad to Russia.
The tactical is not the strategic. The approach to tackle the Ukrainian army is not the same thing as orienting themselves against NATO proper. In addition Russia has tried to 'win' through diplomacy for quite some time before they resorted to the killing but it turns out NATO was never negotiating in good faith. Remember NATO admitting that any peace talks were simply to buy time to arm up and kill Russians?
You directly questioned Russia simultaneously not wanting to kill anybody while waging a war of attrition against the Ukrainians. The diplomacy demonstrates they truly did not want to kill anyone, and the attrition against the Ukrainians happened after.
The direct answer to your question, "So now Russia is fighting a war of attrition but the goal isn't to kill anybody?" is yes. The goal was to kill no one, the goal was failed to be achieved at the local Ukraine level and now they have reoriented. If NATO/Ukraine withdrew and disarmed all fighting forces from the Ukraine right now it's unlikely Russia would continue killing people because their goal would have been achieved. The fighting is a means, not a goal. Remember that word, 'goal', that you yourself brought up.
Contrast that to Macron here who desperately wants to escalate into WWIII and kill more people than are already fighting, seemingly to no benefit or goal besides killing Russians which was Morfei's point.
Russia's "Softly, softly, catche Monkey" approach to this war is to win by attrition, not to give reason for full on war. Brilliant plan actually.
But Macron has insulted Putin in ways other leader have not, even more so than Merkel. His long running pretense of friendship, his hollow promises, his admission that Minsk was a lie, hurt Putin who desires peace above all things.
Big mistake Macron, big, big mistake. Never wound a king.
It's not a bluff. Macron doesn't have the smarts or wisdom to avoid believing his own propaganda for morons. He really thinks he can intimidate Russia by sending in troops.
He's a slow learner with obvious psychological problems, starting with severe self-esteem issues for which he is constantly compensating in neurotic ways.
His attempts to explain what he meant by "strategic ambiguity" were beyond pathetic. "Am I at this moment in time sitting in front of you? Yes? Does that mean that I may not later tonight also have dinner with my lovely wife at our favorite restaurant? No? There, you see."
He's at the end of a dismal presidency. It cannot be ruled out that he's dancing for his puppetmaster, all the way to his next high-paying job in the neo-liberal club.
It's a question of class - unlike the old timer French Presidents, Mitterand, Chirac etc Macron does not have a power base in the old traditional Party way
He's employed by the same corporate and banking structures, though, but without the leeway accorded to those old timers, who could be counted on to bring sections of the underclasses with them, and impress with their political finesse
De Gaulle had the kind of power base that Putin has
There is no point in concentrating on Macron as if he was a sole mover – this is to personalise and pathologise what is very definitely a ruling class decision, or that fraction which is behind Macron and which controls him – the major portion of the dominant corporate and banking class
The various French initiatives are primarily designed for in country and intra EU political purposes – there is an obvious vacuum left by the substantial retreat of the US, and it’s apparent backing of the Germans, as well as the push by EU administration to take over European defence, semi seperate from NATO defence, semi seperate from national defence
This considerations are adequate enough to justify such proposals
– plus they’ll also pass as escalation propaganda, and there is nothing, nothing, the westie ruling class likes as it likes escalation propaganda – MissionAccomplished Groundhog Day
One can add that no other country has the ability to field such an expeditionary force, up to 40,000 men perhaps, certainly 20,000 : certainly not Germany (remember the famous Lithuanian brigade)
Nor the additional advantage of nuclear arms
The French would be remiss not to take advantage, in this way, of these advantages to position themselves vis-à-vis the US, the EU Council, and for the upcoming European parliament elections, in which it is important that Macron’s party defeats MlP’s party
There is no use in reproducing the USEU personalisation of this conflict – this is to trivialise what is very large scale clash of opposing systems, values, functions and requirements
The French have been badly effected, I’m sorry the French ruling (and military and diplomatic class) has been badly effected by the various losses of control and influence suffered in Africa, first slowly over the past several years, then suddenly with the RF SMO, and subsequent widescale diplomatic/military operations in Africa
This has culminated in humiliating expulsions from the Sahel countries, ‘at the hands of Russia’
‘Macron’s’ propaganda is no worse and no better than ‘Biden’s’ or anyone else’s – this is generic western propaganda – he expresses it with rather more conviction, intensity and arrogance, but if you have to listen to the very feeble and badly written speeches from the BalNor politicians, or to the studiously dull pronouncements of Sholz, or to the very demented and juvenile Brits.. …one might say of all the fools in this parade he is not quite the most foolish
I think that you make a good point that the French boss class is smarting from being expelled from their African colonies. We can only hope that the Russians had something to do with it so that we can laugh louder. ;O)
The RF has been helpful, but you should not discount the Africans, who know how much the French were screwing them. It was just a matter of waiting for the right time, to grab real independence. If the Africans had tried to kick out the frogs 10 years ago, the French army and the corrupt local politicians would have completely blocked them. But in 10 years, it was proven that the so-called "fight against terrorism" was a compleat sham, that France lost power and credibility, and ... enough Africans got the internet and could create a quorum.
I do not disagree - but a major kicker was seeing how the RF decided to resist and fight back
Never underestimate - the French had dominated and drained these countries come Hell or high water for generations after generations - this dominance dies hard
Macron (still) represents Rothschild Bank, Paris. Western banking cannot afford to lose Ukrainian collateral, which would be threatened by Russia taking Odessa and land-locking Ukrainian farmland and agricultural output.
Russia plays a very strong hand.
European and US banking are covertly trying to make each other fail first, according to Tom Luongo.
The US is counting on making EU energy dependent, and so on - but their main interest is to dominate the EU financial system
Hence their perfidious insistence on EU mandated confiscation of CBR assets held by Euroclear, which is guaranteed to wreak havoc to EU held assets, confidence etc
The US is at war, but not with Russia
The EU however has a very clever defence against this US full scale invasion -
Thank You, Gerrard. The Larry Johnson essay is very good. I left a comment. I'll put it in my next blog post. Global industrial economy is in early decline, about to go over the cliff, Europe first, perhaps. Net oil peaked in November 2018, and dominoes have been falling since then. I explained in that comment.
Thanks for this - but please do read the available EU published material and the assorted Bruno Le Maistre and Christian Lindner plans
There is a lot of detail inevitably lacking from the Gaius Baltar overview
Hence the need to issue Eurobonds : a preliminary step via the employment of the €30/40T of collateral available in EU banks, as per the recent pronouncements of the French Minister of Finance at Ghent, 23 Febuary 2024
Financial Times « ‘Christian Lindner and Bruno le Maitre : We must close the European capital markets gap » https://archive.ph/ERKbP
The War in Ukraine is the very useful and well timed emergency which can spur all relevant EU actors, EU Finance Ministers led by Germany and France, the EUCommission and EUParliament into action in order to assume more and greater power, as was Covid an opportunity : look how very successful that was in terms of efficient and cost effective governance
They think they really have this worked out and it's a winner
If/when the Russian army reaches the Dnipro, anything after that would be considered icing on the cake. So that's when I expect the Russians to make a show of pushing further, and then going to the negotiation table from a very strong position.
I say this because I don't think Russia really wants western Ukraine. Too many nationalists and insurgents and too little economic value. Everything east of the Dnipro has strategic value, and a lot of it has economic value.
If you insist on playing word games, telling us that supplying Soviet arms, then western arms, then armored vehicles but no tanks, then tanks, then long-range missiles, now troops is not "escalation", well, if that makes you feel better, I can't stop you and have no interest in trying.
Escalations need to be effective. The fact is that none of the western escalations have tipped the balance at even the tactical level much less the operational or strategic level. Which is why Russia can ignore them.
The opportunity to truly escalate required western nations going all in at some point when it would matter. Whether that was openly leading strategic long range missile strikes, providing air forces with western pilots or a mass insertion of western troops under western command. 2,000 or 20,000 French troops is an ineffective escalation too, unless all of NATO says “if you attack any French force we’re all joining”. And even that still depends on the Russian response.
Good Idea, but the real indicator is the futures market, not the spot price. If you see deep, long term backwardation on gold futures prices, it means that the global banking system is collapsing.
"Backwardation" in the Futures Market is when the current/spot price of a commodity exceeds the futures price. It means Demand is for delivery now and not off into the future. Normal markets would have futures prices at the same or greater than the current/spot price.
If the price of Gold in the Spot Market exceeds the price of Gold in the Futures market, it means people/banks want History's stable security today, right now, not off into some vague future, which may not come.
Exactly, Sir! It also means, that market participants are willing to give up an opportunity of free arbitrage. During backwardation they could get guaranteed profit by selling gold now, and buying it back in the future for a cheaper price.
This can only happen if they don't trust the counterparties (aka the system) anymore, that they can get the gold back from them. Since classical shortages cannot happen in the gold market, because it is the largest stock to flow ratio commodity, gold backwardation is the best indicator of panic in the global banking system.
It has happened several times in the past (like 2008) for a short period. A long period is a good indicator for: run to the hills, duck and cover.
The price of gold rose $45 today to about $2,205. I'm speculating that 10-year treasuries are at risk of default as countries reduce their positions in them. I suspect that the reason Biden sold China oil from its strategic reserve recently was because China refused to get paid with treasuries for its goods. Japan recently sold off most of its US treasuries and bought lots of gold. Fewer countries want US debt. I've got Canadian loonies or "Dodos", like the extinct Dodo, to unload should the USD start a death spiral. Our central bank is loaded with T-bills. lol.
Ukraine is on the path to dividing the country into regions under the control of criminal-nationalist units. Deputy commander of the Azov brigade Sergei Tsisaruk (call sign “Molfar”) proposes to give the brigades the opportunity to mobilize themselves. “The only reliable way to speed up mobilization is to allow the combat brigades to handle this issue themselves. It’s simple, the brigade receives lists from the TRC (territorial recruitment center)and searches for evaders themselves. The fighters of the brigade are much more interested in replenishing the brigade, so bribes will not help,” writes Molfar. He believes that a brigade reconnaissance company will be able to mobilize a hundred people a week - “and these will not be the old guys who are now being brought in, but selected warriors who all this time have been running away from the wounded veterans serving in the TRC.” https://twitter.com/Molfar_4308/status/1769812271046213936
Ah yes, now we are in the feudal ages in "winning" Ukraine, where roving armies press gang all the male villagers after they ransack the town. Seems like a great idea, they should try it.
We subcontract some coding and website work (consumer shit, not defense/military) to a firm that employs a lot of young Ukrainian men in their 20s and early 30s.
None of them live in Ukraine and nor do they plan on visiting until after the war is over. The real fighting spirit of Ukraine's intellectual future is mostly fighting for permanent EU or US passports.
The question rolling down the tracks for the West, is can Smart/Dumb phones and AI produce food for empty bellies when "Modern Monetary Theory", the updated version of debasing silver coins, hits the brick wall.
A local dairy farm that produces about 2000 pounds of milk daily just when broke. Unbelievably they got caught up in the cheap money game, borrowed against their farm for other "can't go wrong " ventures and piled up $62 million in debt. The cracks in the dam are everywhere, but you have to look hard. Lots of stuff is deliberately hidden.
Russia is a real nation, with real resources and real people.
We, the West, are a bunch of whiney babies, stuck on the teat, believing Printing Money and injecting Debt is the real world.
I can only observe that actual American combat soldiers like Big Country Expat and Colonel McGregor, and their many friends have never given the Ukraine the slightest chance of prevailing against the Russian bear. From the beginning they have openly mocked the staff officers and politicians who said otherwise, and of course the lying press...But Simplicius does a wonderful job of providing detailed information about the conflict and the deranged politicians behind it..The sole question remaining is whether the maniacs and idiots running NATO take the rest of us down with them...
It is unreal how our populations have been gaslit into being ruled by these mediocre sociopaths who have no idea how to govern in the nation's interests.
Where are the bunkers located for our Upper Caste to hide, when they get Nukes dropped on the rest of us? The unprotected survivors need directions to the bunkers.
As usual, the "elites" are out of touch. Modern nuclear weapons are far more precise than the ones used in 1945. I'm sure the Russians know exactly where all those bunkers are and will take them out pronto. It's only fair that the maniacs pushing us into WW3 get hit first.
Indeed. Russia WILL go for Odessa - it has no choice. Then we'll see if the NATO fools in Romania/Moldavia really are stupid enough to try it on. What maniacs these people are! We haven't seen this level of delusion since Hitler's bunker.
Macron says: "Russia is an average power with a nuclear weapon, but whose GDP is much lower than that of Europeans, lower than that of Germany, of France."
Macron is insane. What percentage of France's GDP is debt? Almost 112-percent. Macron talks like only great powers to have debt, can afford great debt. France's national debt is like $3.2-trillion dollars. Russia's national debt is approximately $500-billion dollars, or 17-percent of Russia's GDP is debt.
What happened to the days when a responsible government carried a balanced budget, with very low debt, and being debt free was considered a badge of honor?
But then there's the United States. If you really want to talk crazy, at approximately $32-trillion dollars, the United States total debt accounted for 723.7 % of the country's GDP in 2023. The United States hasn't had a budget since 2000. It has been one continuing resolution (CR) after another.
Mark Twain once said: "There are lies and then ther are damned lies." What comes after "damned lies?"
Admitted U.S. Federal Government Debt (see Fed Reserve, St. Louis) just went past $34 Trillion. The U.S. Federal Reserve has Debt approaching $8 Trillion (same source).
The West's choice is Great(est) Depression Ever or Weimar. Modern Weimar doesn't require wheelbarrows, just super computers to handle the extra zeros.
True. There is another option, though I doubt they will take it. Do what Hitler did, issue a new non inflationary currency for internal use. See quote and link below, which while not the best written, gets to the point.
He rebuilt Germany with that strategy, as well as killing off the opposition, but how much that influenced the financial strategy is a question for another day/year.
"Hitler began his National credit program by devising a plan of public works. Projects earmarked for funding included flood control, repair of public buildings and private residences, and construction of new buildings, roads, bridges, canals, and port facilities. The projected cost of the various programs was fixed at one billion units of the national currency. One billion Non-inflationary bills of exchange, called Labor Treasury Certificates, were then issued against this cost. Millions of people were put to work on these projects, and the workers were paid with the Treasury Certificates.” The government paid workers in Certificates. Workers spent those Certific Hates on other goods and services, thus creating more jobs for more people. In this way the German people climbed out of the crushing debt imposed on them by the international bankers.
Another great aspect of Hitler economic system was barter system. Germans successfully run that B.C system in 20 century and German foreign trade boosted enormously. Barter system cut down the international bankers, and eliminates the exposure to trade deficit. England was quite willing to lend money to buy raw materials but Germany insisted upon exchanging goods for goods.
“Germany will enter into no obligations to pay for her imports than she is capable of fulfilling. The German Government thus takes the standpoint of the respectable merchant who keeps his orders in harmony with his power to pay” (Hitler)"
1. France had to pay Germany for the Occupaton Army.
2 German soldiers were issued Certificates (Promissory Notes) which were cashable at any French Bank into francs so they could buy French goods, like butter, and send them home to Germany.
3. But fundamentally, like the U.S. of today, all of the tricks played by the Nazi Finance Minister came down to stealing in the here and now and from the future. Confiscating jewish property in Germany and elsewhere, selling it to fill German coffers, invading other countries, stealing everything they could and filling German coffers.
1,2. those events came later and only once the country was back on its feet thanks to his internal nondilutable currency. And I do see item 2 as reasonable, the fact they sent stuff home is neither here or there is it?
re 3. I would say I don't see his national currency and barter plans as a trick. And his invasions at least initially were to recapture lands taken from Germany under the WW1 Treaty of Versailles. A nasty document if there ever was one. Things went sideways once he invaded Poland, and his Jewish, Gypsy, mentally bereft, pogroms are inexcusable.
As to point 2, it was a lot more than neither here nor there. The German Certificates were not redeemable by France for anything. They amounted to outright theft. And the French People suffered huge shortages as German soldiers sent French food and products out of France.
It is a long discussion, with this site inadequate for a venue, on how Schacht ended the hyperinflation and created the stable growth in prewar Germany. Once war was inevitable Schacht was thrown overboard and the financing by Plunder expanded uncontrolled.
But yes. Versailles was a mistake and a disaster. As written by J.M. Keynes.
And accelerating rapidly! Going vertical, looks like a crypto chart. No worries though. Saw a headline that Boden, err, Biden is telling Arizonians all about his plan to Invest in America today. Whew!
When you see something that makes no sense. That clearly is extremely harmful and yet those responsible act only to increase the harm, if nothing else, you can be damn sure you are being run off a cliff. Plan accordingly.
He is medically insane and a growing number of people is getting a reality check. It is said that he loosey goosey stated in feb with a glass of whisky in hand that he me have to send ‘dudes’ in odessa. The guy still believes this is a chess game. But the Brigitte Macron trans scandal
Is just around the corner and that may push his agenda and the envelop
The GAO is blinded by the deep state's off balance sheet shenanigans. The FDIC is with holding data as people like John Titus back in early (Feb) 2023 exposed the real state of US banks based on third quarter data 2022. The inanities of western leaders reflects the mental breakdown as their planned WEF/IMF reset plans are going up in smoke leaving them with a busted flush.
32 trillion...PLUS the unfunded liabilities towards social security, medicare, pensions which is at least another 100-120.....and then we come to the state and local government level, who have another 3-5.....it never ends....
"Unfunded liabilities" for poor people's services are a myth. They are paid for by older generations to the younger until retirement when the younger generations start paying back for their education, health services etc. The services to poor people are the investments.
Investing in fat losers who are in their 2nd and 3rd generations of being government dependents seems like a very poor ROI.
U.S. might be able to afford better healthcare services if we could convince people to actually take care of themselves better. The majority of health problems can be minimized by exercise and a decent diet.
Eugenic fiction, people took more exercise when there was full employment for all not just for rich bastards. People with jobs used to be able to afford a decent diet. The state could help by inhibiting the sugar and fat industries from pushing their wares, same for the tobacco and alcohol trades instead of making it easy for them.
This never-ending deficit/debt will likely be one of the fracture points of a national divorce in the U.S. Let the northeast and mid-Atlantic old money states keep all that debt and let the midwest and south start over without being led by any of these Ivy League mediocrities.
"Let the northeast and mid-Atlantic old money states keep all that debt . . . ."
You do that and the old money does what it has done since time began: collect on all that debt, from all the debt slaves. Debt serfdom continues, even after the full-on systemic collapse.
It all sounds like it is all getting worse to me. Because this is entirely correct isn't it? :
".... Today’s leaders are all totally immorally degraded puppets, likely placed in charge only on the basis of kompromat, and no longer have the necessary professional qualities or discretion of their forebears for the seriousness of the situation. Society, more stupefied by bread and circuses than ever, of course, is blind to their leaders’ total ignorance and dangerous provocations...... "
So disregard 'Society' if it refers to anything like the 'bon ton' because they are exactly the same stuff as the 'leaders', in fact that's where the leaders come from and that's a large part of the problem.
But as for the 'society' that means the hoi polloi then the message is clear: they need to be informed.
As quickly and as clearly and as simply as possible. And as often as possible.
I see no evidence of any campaign towards this end.
I never even see any suggestion that one should be mounted.
Well I think it should. Don't you?
p.s. Should we not give some consideration to the contention that the whole thing is merely the overt manifestation of struggles between what we might call 'mega oligarchs' or the real 'money powers' of the world?
Have we not perhaps seen some things that were that true might indicate they've come to a decision to wind this one down and go elsewhere and start up another one?
There is no method of mass communication that isn’t severely compromised by TPTB, and this moving masses of people from “passive ignorance” to “being informed “ to “being activated” seems almost impossible… by design.
I am a Brit who spends a lot of time in France and can enjoy meeting people from all over the world. Since 2022 I have met hundreds of "informed" people, not one of whom deviated in the slightest from the western narrative on the Ukraine. Mind you I have met only a few people from outside the "golden billion". And those that I do tend to live in the west for a reason. Having said this, I doubt the French or even the Brits relish the idea of war with Russia on the steppe.
well they are not informed are they? there's two 'levels' of informed people. your normal colonel blimp who is 'traditionally' informed, shall we say? and the che guevara 'revolutionary' shall we say? See?
They stand either side of the divide.
The mass of them of course not as extreme as those two 'archetype' examples.
On either side.
One side: a great majority is of course completely in accord with the accepted narrative aren't they?
The other side comprise the 'alt-media' when they are in the media. They, of course, ALL diverge from the accepted narrative.
My beef with them is that either side, neither side, does anything to help the people stir themselves, learn for themselves, become pro active.
Neither. None of them.
We the people are on our own. Because of that.
There is a way out: take up the machinery of democracy and make it work in a 21st century way with public individual and collective activity 24/7/52 via relevant apps on our computers and smart phones.
Get organised and speak in that way. They'll pay attention. Whoever 'they' are, when that happens.
So do you imply no one should try? It seems they're all taking your advice even before you give it then.
Actually people get massively informed all the time overnight so to speak. Just they get informed of trivial things or the wrongs things. In 'our' judgement.
Like they all suddenly know that Kate Middleton got topped by William. Like they suddenly all knew that covid was deadly.
And on and on and on.
The world has grown small. The mass moves in its mind now like a flock of a million birds all moving in harmony.
The so called 'leaders' are insane monsters not fit for purpose. Apparently behind the scenes are big money interests pulling the strings everywhere and they are clearly inhuman, totally unconcerned with human life, and there are the masses plodding along in dumb disinterest and delusion letting all this happen. In Ukraine's case half a million of them marching off to death without sensible cause.
Terrible. What/who is worse than all of those three groups?
The clerisy. You know the term? Encompasses all the 'know it alls'. All the pundits. All the commentators. All the social observers. All those who purport to know the ins and outs of every issue as it comes up. Those who purport to know the rights and wrongs of everything.
Why are they the worst?
Because it is they who should inform the people and lead the people in their prideful supposed superior knowledge and ability.
I have written it many times- the most critical moment will be when it is certain that the Ukrainians face total defeat- at that moment, our idiot leaders in the West will be sorely tempted to go for broke and commit troops and aircraft. I was born and raised in the Cold War- I will have never been closer to dying in a nuclear conflagration than I will be if NATO decides to actively fight in Ukraine. These idiots seem to want to get us all killed.
Makes you wonder how bad things are for American Caesar if he's willing to go that far with his brinkmanship. Perhaps the Allied victory in Ukraine will be even better for us than I thought. That said, Russia and the Allies have done a good job of disarming Nato since they defeated the US-Ukronazis in the first 48 hours of the SMO.
Modern western leaders have lived their entire political careers in environments where their terrible decisions have never led to consequences for themselves.
This explains their behavior. They're so insulated from the results of their policies that it simply doesn't occur to them that nukes can fly if they keep on pushing.
Can't wait to see Russia launch a few of those soon-to-come nuclear- powered cruise missiles and see what the US makes of those. They ain't weather balloons idiots!
The French are about to find out firsthand why it is that they are no longer not only a 'Continental Power'... but also completely irrelevant on the Global Stage. Hundreds of Frenchmen will be blown to Bits in order to garner said 'epiphany,' a Tragedy which will be the beginning of the End for the European chihuahuas & their audacity at claiming to be meaningful & relevant Geopolitical players.
Once again, a Tragedy which should never happen... but at this point, hard to avoid!
All of those euroturds will soon be treating their own citizens like the neonazi zionist are now treating Gazans. Couldn't happen to a better group of people.
If the French are so foolish as to openly deploy in Ukraine, they must be attacked vigorously and continuously, maximizing their casualties. It's the only lesson that will work, apparently.
It's what happened to the "Mercenaries" at the start of the war, and it's what will happen tk the French. Remember that huge missile attack on the military base hosting the inflood of Western volunteers? Well, all the basement dwelling NAFO bros reconsidered going to the party really fast.
Just driving in with 2,000 French troops and going to work? What is that French general thinking of? The troops need air cover to protect missile/air defense systems to protect the troops. And this air cover will fly out of…which airfield again?
That attack doesn't seem to have stopped anyone.
My hunch is it dissuaded the casual would-be mercs, who thought this was COD Zombies mode hunting "Russian orcs who charge at you with shovels". Not that those guys are especially useful in war, but as we seen, the AFU isn't very picky.
But my point remains. The potential PR win of France having to bring home potentially hundreds of soldiers in body bags and wheelchairs would be a terrible blow to any public support for a NATO intervention. So placing NATO troops at certain POIs as a deterrant effect (as it was floated several times) would not only dissuade Russia from striking them, it would encourage it. It would not only look bad, but France would have no recourse. What are they gonna do? Cry foul and run behind mama's skirt? (To the ICJ or the US) Now that would shatter the illusion of French military power (can't even defeat a country with the GDP less than Italy). Or they could take the L and move on.
Sending troops is kind of a lose-lose for them, unless they can demonstrate results, which in this case would be a turning of the tide of the war. Which isn't possible with the timeframe and manpower (and acceptable number of NATO casualties before the public gets too outraged) they have available.
Those dead soldiers would just encourage further escalation. "Something something We Cannot Allow Their Sacrifice To Be In Vain!"
Nah.
No it would not. It would sicken the loved ones of the whole enterprise, all the romanticising of war. The clamour for it to end before even more lives are lost would be intolerable.
Like how WWI stopped WWII?
We can agree to disagree.
If Eu and US citizens are starting to become reluctant to give Ukraine money anymore, how willing do you think they are to givr Ukraine the blood of their sons?
I'm not talking about the politicians, obviously they want to send more troops regardless of losses. But the people are pissed off already, this would be a kamikaze move for any government.
The EU doesn't seem too reluctant to give money from here (the US reluctance has nothing to do with principle and everything to do with trying to harm Biden) and it's not the citizens who decide. It's the politicians, and their kids won't be going.
No effect yet. After that incident, the French government disowned them, and the MSM ran a bunch of articles claiming Russian reports of French victims in the strike were information warfare.
Amusingly postscript to that -- A supposed partial list of the deceased from unofficial sources inside UA was circulated via Sputnik etc, and then a couple of guys on that list turned up still alive. They then gave interviews to the press to debunk the Sputnik story, and went on to talk about their happy times in the UA International Legion. But the French position remained that there are no mercenaries there.
As the numbers go up they'll have to reckon with it more honestly, but doesn't seem to be the case today. Macron's more recent pronouncements might help change this too.
The stream of maimed and killed French soldiers coming out of Ukraine, with no material impact on Russian operations likely, may end Macron's power. If so no other European "leader" would be foolish enough to send their military into Ukraine. Perhaps Macron's recklessness will prove to be a turning point in the conflict.
Is that what Macron was referring to when he blamed Putin for the "disfunction" (I believe) in French hospitals?
I was wondering about that, too. France is home to some 67 million people. Hard to see how a few thousand extra patients (wounded soldiers) would cause major disruptions to the health care system.
Maybe, but the system is cracking at the seams, what with the post-Covid debacle and immigration. Wouldn't take much to finish it off.
It is gaslighting. Macron's austerity policies are finishing off what remains of the once renown French hospital system. He used the Covid excuse in 2020 and 2021. Now it’s the Big Bad Putin fault. Anything to avoid taking responsibility.
Don't kid yourself. Macron will only escalate further.
You attribute far too much actual power to these waffling politicians.
Perfect for Russia. Destroying NATO piecemeal is a brilliant strategy.
Except they aren't, and Russia will get destroyed piecemealor WWIII break out first.
Exactly.
The problem is that Russian has failed to respond adequately to escalation after escalation, which is why WWIII is more or less baked in the cake at this point.
You are right. They need to blow up things in a big way to stop the other side nickling and diming them to death and to show they mean business. They will get to WWIII in 1,000 baby steps and a lot of civilian casualties. Like picking up your hand in a bridge game with 13 high card points and immediately bidding “four spades”. Puts the cooler on the other team.
Nope. Russia is doing things the right way. NATO was always going to escalate. Wiping out the Ukrainian forces before NATO introduces troops in mass is the only way to avoid WWIII, however small that chance was.
Don't worry, you will get your wish. Europe is lucky, they will receive only a fraction of the mushroom clouds USA gets.
What wish and why do you think getting WWIII is "doing things the right way"?
I still don't think NATO is going to escalate. They are full of shit. The home populations won't tolerate the casualties, and if they think otherwise...they are crazy.
The US leadership figured out that we certainly won't tolerate it. This Ukraine shit is going to lose an election if they press it, when they already are at risk over the Gaza genocide.
Don't underestimate all the so willing ORCS in all the obedient agencies. Have you forgotten 2020-2024?
I do remember the US government's unwillingness to call up reserves for the endless wars. This meant that the people who fought in SWA were almost exclusively active duty or National Guardsmen drawn from the South, West and inner cities. Or, to put it more bluntly, the lower class that had no contact with the elites that run Washington. Baghdad was awash with Guard divisions with weird patches. They knew exactly what they were doing. Keeping the death and loss away from the general public. Nothing has changed except that the South and West are no longer reliably enlisting, hence the current enlistment crisis. I can't imagine things are different in Europe.
I am not saying it is a walk in the park but impossible is nothing. Thanks though!
The Cheese eating surrender Monkeys would like to return to the table
The French will learn to fight just like everyone else does. Blaming the individual Frenchman for the behavior of their leadership isn't very fair.
Which French are you talking about? Obviously not the LePen supporting folks and the farmers against the Deep state and EU.
Macron provokes (following orders) a public panic campaign. Macron sends troops to Ucraine (symbolic contingent). False flag attack at the Paris olympic games (26th July). It was Putin... Bullshit? 4 months to go and the Olympic swimming pool has not started being built yet.
what's really weird is that 90% of the olympic venues are being made out of wood, not steel. No idea if one of these shit buildings will collapse or not.
Thank you.
The Olympics in Algeria.
MoD made reference to any foreign troops will be a high priority targets. Doesn't bode well when Mr Kinzhal visits
Smart move to make sure no Russian offensive from the north.
More like it guarantees a Russian offensive from the north.
Nope, this will have absolutely no effect on the likelihood of a Russian offensive from the north. Russia doesn’t care whether there are Ukrainian troops or NATO troops there. I would even say that the Russian army will be happy to destroy the NATO troops. And they can't do anything with that. If they are thinking that Ukraine's allies have a right to deploy military forces on Ukrainian territory, then they must understand that Russia can attack this forces and this won’t even be an escalation because Russia will just say that it is attacking the Ukrainian army and cannot distinguish it from NATO troops because they use the same equipment and weapons.
I'm sure Russian military folks can't wait for these troops to come in. Whatever inhibitions the Russians might have against killing Ukrainians will obviously not apply to interventionists, and they will likely want to make a vivid and convincing demonstration to make other "willing" think twice before getting involved. And also to show this little Napoleon it's place.
Anyone in service will be thinking of resignation, retirement or going AWOL. The rest like the volunteers are likely psychologically damaged, so no loss.
Beat me to it. None of the articles posed the question of whether French soldiers would agree to this. Sure, the Foreign Legion would probably be gung-ho, but the ordinary squaddies? No way!
How would they be able to avoid this?
Desertion
Stupid me - not sure these baguettes have the balls/visibility of what they are getting into - motivation for such drastic measures, though!
Like the Abram’s, Leopards and Patriots, any NATO troops in Ukraine will be passionately hunted by the Russian military. It’s a death sentence for any sizable formation of NATO soldiers.
I hope we get some cool videos of FABs and other fun.
More bounties to collect!
If Russians have any qualms about killing Ukrainian soldiers, they shouldn't.
It's not as if Ukrainian soldiers have any qualms about killing them.
Whole thing sounds like a retcon to justify Russian indecision.
Do you do anything here other than concern trolling? Clearly the SMO would be over already if only the RF had your strategic genuis at its disposal.
I call them as I see them, which is not concern trolling. I suppose you prefer happy horseshit.
I'd wager inserting evidence free, overtly negative assertions of your opinion relentlessly into the discussion would more than meet most people's definition of a concern troll. Is there a thread in these comments where you haven't repeatedly denounced Russia's failure to continue escalating the conflict?
I, like a lot of people here I would suspect, have no direct military experience, so most of us are seeking to understand the conflict on a more rational level than the 3rd rate propaganda being pumped out by western media.
Given the choice between a 21st century Russia consistently out performing the western charicateurs of it in all regards, or listening to the resident 'pro RF' arm chair expert (every alternative media platform has at least one) bemoan Putin's lack of this that or the other, I know where I'm putting my money at this point.
People in this camp seem to follow 2 lines of thought that I've seen;
Putin is weak and should be replaced by a stronger leader, the SMO would be over by now if only he'd be more aggressive - current pace allows time for some kind of NATO false flag.
Or
Its all some WEF set dressing being moved around and Putin is infact on board with the whole plan to impoverish the world's population and render us all into serfdom.
Both of which are laughably simple lines of logic in a conflict like this.
How many strawmen can you fit into a few paragraphs?
Your lack of any substantive response says a lot. If you weren't the definition of a concern troll you'd exercise the opportunity to elaborate on your points and demonstrate the evidence that informs them.
Russians fight to win a war, not to kill someone. It’s only the stupid Ukrainian Nazis who have the whole point of existence is to kill Russians or do something bad to Russia.
Wait, I thought that Russia was fighting a "war of attrition"? So now Russia is fighting a war of attrition but the goal isn't to kill anybody?
The tactical is not the strategic. The approach to tackle the Ukrainian army is not the same thing as orienting themselves against NATO proper. In addition Russia has tried to 'win' through diplomacy for quite some time before they resorted to the killing but it turns out NATO was never negotiating in good faith. Remember NATO admitting that any peace talks were simply to buy time to arm up and kill Russians?
None of which relates to my point. Although it was obvious since 2014 that neither Ukraine nor its western sponsors were acting in good faith.
You directly questioned Russia simultaneously not wanting to kill anybody while waging a war of attrition against the Ukrainians. The diplomacy demonstrates they truly did not want to kill anyone, and the attrition against the Ukrainians happened after.
The direct answer to your question, "So now Russia is fighting a war of attrition but the goal isn't to kill anybody?" is yes. The goal was to kill no one, the goal was failed to be achieved at the local Ukraine level and now they have reoriented. If NATO/Ukraine withdrew and disarmed all fighting forces from the Ukraine right now it's unlikely Russia would continue killing people because their goal would have been achieved. The fighting is a means, not a goal. Remember that word, 'goal', that you yourself brought up.
Contrast that to Macron here who desperately wants to escalate into WWIII and kill more people than are already fighting, seemingly to no benefit or goal besides killing Russians which was Morfei's point.
Great article as always!
My guesses are:
1. Bluff, more than likely.
2. A toehold in Lvov so that France can pretend that they stopped Russia from going on into Europe.
3. French troops in Odessa to try and force negotiations.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
French legion are already in Odessa at least during the nightlife french has never been so often heard in some type of 'bars' for a few months.
Some French troops were just killed in Odessa, along with quite a few Ukraine and NATO officers, troops.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/russian-hypersonic-iskander-missile-attack-odessa-targets-mercenary/
Yep, I think Russia has lost all patience with NATO's Kabuki theater in Ukraine.
Russia's "Softly, softly, catche Monkey" approach to this war is to win by attrition, not to give reason for full on war. Brilliant plan actually.
But Macron has insulted Putin in ways other leader have not, even more so than Merkel. His long running pretense of friendship, his hollow promises, his admission that Minsk was a lie, hurt Putin who desires peace above all things.
Big mistake Macron, big, big mistake. Never wound a king.
It's not a bluff. Macron doesn't have the smarts or wisdom to avoid believing his own propaganda for morons. He really thinks he can intimidate Russia by sending in troops.
He's a slow learner with obvious psychological problems, starting with severe self-esteem issues for which he is constantly compensating in neurotic ways.
His attempts to explain what he meant by "strategic ambiguity" were beyond pathetic. "Am I at this moment in time sitting in front of you? Yes? Does that mean that I may not later tonight also have dinner with my lovely wife at our favorite restaurant? No? There, you see."
“Lovely Wife”….!!😮💨
He's at the end of a dismal presidency. It cannot be ruled out that he's dancing for his puppetmaster, all the way to his next high-paying job in the neo-liberal club.
It's a question of class - unlike the old timer French Presidents, Mitterand, Chirac etc Macron does not have a power base in the old traditional Party way
He's employed by the same corporate and banking structures, though, but without the leeway accorded to those old timers, who could be counted on to bring sections of the underclasses with them, and impress with their political finesse
De Gaulle had the kind of power base that Putin has
De Gaulle knew how to withdraw the French army from a hopeless situation, for the good of France.
The French presidential elections are in 2027.
I doubt he - or maybe even France - will last till then.
I hope you prove correct, but Macron obviously believes otherwise.
That's the danger, FF. He is pushed by his beliefs - which are dangerously wrong.
There is no point in concentrating on Macron as if he was a sole mover – this is to personalise and pathologise what is very definitely a ruling class decision, or that fraction which is behind Macron and which controls him – the major portion of the dominant corporate and banking class
The various French initiatives are primarily designed for in country and intra EU political purposes – there is an obvious vacuum left by the substantial retreat of the US, and it’s apparent backing of the Germans, as well as the push by EU administration to take over European defence, semi seperate from NATO defence, semi seperate from national defence
This considerations are adequate enough to justify such proposals
– plus they’ll also pass as escalation propaganda, and there is nothing, nothing, the westie ruling class likes as it likes escalation propaganda – MissionAccomplished Groundhog Day
One can add that no other country has the ability to field such an expeditionary force, up to 40,000 men perhaps, certainly 20,000 : certainly not Germany (remember the famous Lithuanian brigade)
Nor the additional advantage of nuclear arms
The French would be remiss not to take advantage, in this way, of these advantages to position themselves vis-à-vis the US, the EU Council, and for the upcoming European parliament elections, in which it is important that Macron’s party defeats MlP’s party
There is no use in reproducing the USEU personalisation of this conflict – this is to trivialise what is very large scale clash of opposing systems, values, functions and requirements
The French have been badly effected, I’m sorry the French ruling (and military and diplomatic class) has been badly effected by the various losses of control and influence suffered in Africa, first slowly over the past several years, then suddenly with the RF SMO, and subsequent widescale diplomatic/military operations in Africa
This has culminated in humiliating expulsions from the Sahel countries, ‘at the hands of Russia’
‘Macron’s’ propaganda is no worse and no better than ‘Biden’s’ or anyone else’s – this is generic western propaganda – he expresses it with rather more conviction, intensity and arrogance, but if you have to listen to the very feeble and badly written speeches from the BalNor politicians, or to the studiously dull pronouncements of Sholz, or to the very demented and juvenile Brits.. …one might say of all the fools in this parade he is not quite the most foolish
I think that you make a good point that the French boss class is smarting from being expelled from their African colonies. We can only hope that the Russians had something to do with it so that we can laugh louder. ;O)
The RF had everything to do with that
The RF has been helpful, but you should not discount the Africans, who know how much the French were screwing them. It was just a matter of waiting for the right time, to grab real independence. If the Africans had tried to kick out the frogs 10 years ago, the French army and the corrupt local politicians would have completely blocked them. But in 10 years, it was proven that the so-called "fight against terrorism" was a compleat sham, that France lost power and credibility, and ... enough Africans got the internet and could create a quorum.
I do not disagree - but a major kicker was seeing how the RF decided to resist and fight back
Never underestimate - the French had dominated and drained these countries come Hell or high water for generations after generations - this dominance dies hard
Seeing what the RF did....was a liberation
Macron (still) represents Rothschild Bank, Paris. Western banking cannot afford to lose Ukrainian collateral, which would be threatened by Russia taking Odessa and land-locking Ukrainian farmland and agricultural output.
Russia plays a very strong hand.
European and US banking are covertly trying to make each other fail first, according to Tom Luongo.
The US is counting on making EU energy dependent, and so on - but their main interest is to dominate the EU financial system
Hence their perfidious insistence on EU mandated confiscation of CBR assets held by Euroclear, which is guaranteed to wreak havoc to EU held assets, confidence etc
The US is at war, but not with Russia
The EU however has a very clever defence against this US full scale invasion -
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-adopts-european-sustainability-reporting-standards-2023-07-31_en
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32022L2464
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32023R2772
https://sonar21.com/why-is-the-european-union-destroying-its-own-economy/
Thank You, Gerrard. The Larry Johnson essay is very good. I left a comment. I'll put it in my next blog post. Global industrial economy is in early decline, about to go over the cliff, Europe first, perhaps. Net oil peaked in November 2018, and dominoes have been falling since then. I explained in that comment.
Thanks for this - but please do read the available EU published material and the assorted Bruno Le Maistre and Christian Lindner plans
There is a lot of detail inevitably lacking from the Gaius Baltar overview
Hence the need to issue Eurobonds : a preliminary step via the employment of the €30/40T of collateral available in EU banks, as per the recent pronouncements of the French Minister of Finance at Ghent, 23 Febuary 2024
Financial Times « ‘Christian Lindner and Bruno le Maitre : We must close the European capital markets gap » https://archive.ph/ERKbP
https://www.vie-publique.fr/discours/293149-bruno-le-maire-23022024-politique-economique-europeenne
The War in Ukraine is the very useful and well timed emergency which can spur all relevant EU actors, EU Finance Ministers led by Germany and France, the EUCommission and EUParliament into action in order to assume more and greater power, as was Covid an opportunity : look how very successful that was in terms of efficient and cost effective governance
They think they really have this worked out and it's a winner
To survive, Europe is going to have to kick out the US neocons and go back grovelling to Putin for cheap energy.
he can believe what he wants, but if he doesn't have the cards (ie conventional forces to spare outside of NATO borders), it's still a bluff
If/when the Russian army reaches the Dnipro, anything after that would be considered icing on the cake. So that's when I expect the Russians to make a show of pushing further, and then going to the negotiation table from a very strong position.
I say this because I don't think Russia really wants western Ukraine. Too many nationalists and insurgents and too little economic value. Everything east of the Dnipro has strategic value, and a lot of it has economic value.
At every escalation, we've read the confident predictions that the West was bluffing.
And every time, it turns out that they were not bluffing.
What escalations?
You give no examples of these pretend escalations...
Just bloviated hot air.
If you insist on playing word games, telling us that supplying Soviet arms, then western arms, then armored vehicles but no tanks, then tanks, then long-range missiles, now troops is not "escalation", well, if that makes you feel better, I can't stop you and have no interest in trying.
Escalations need to be effective. The fact is that none of the western escalations have tipped the balance at even the tactical level much less the operational or strategic level. Which is why Russia can ignore them.
The opportunity to truly escalate required western nations going all in at some point when it would matter. Whether that was openly leading strategic long range missile strikes, providing air forces with western pilots or a mass insertion of western troops under western command. 2,000 or 20,000 French troops is an ineffective escalation too, unless all of NATO says “if you attack any French force we’re all joining”. And even that still depends on the Russian response.
The escalations have kept Ukraine in the war.
Outstanding as always.
Keep your eye on the price of gold. It will tell you a lot about the strength of the US and the Eurozone.
Good Idea, but the real indicator is the futures market, not the spot price. If you see deep, long term backwardation on gold futures prices, it means that the global banking system is collapsing.
"Backwardation"?
Backwardation is when the current price of an underlying asset is higher than prices trading in the futures market.
Ah, thanks.
“Backwardation”? Love it
"Backwardation" in the Futures Market is when the current/spot price of a commodity exceeds the futures price. It means Demand is for delivery now and not off into the future. Normal markets would have futures prices at the same or greater than the current/spot price.
If the price of Gold in the Spot Market exceeds the price of Gold in the Futures market, it means people/banks want History's stable security today, right now, not off into some vague future, which may not come.
Exactly, Sir! It also means, that market participants are willing to give up an opportunity of free arbitrage. During backwardation they could get guaranteed profit by selling gold now, and buying it back in the future for a cheaper price.
This can only happen if they don't trust the counterparties (aka the system) anymore, that they can get the gold back from them. Since classical shortages cannot happen in the gold market, because it is the largest stock to flow ratio commodity, gold backwardation is the best indicator of panic in the global banking system.
It has happened several times in the past (like 2008) for a short period. A long period is a good indicator for: run to the hills, duck and cover.
Well stated.
The price of gold rose $45 today to about $2,205. I'm speculating that 10-year treasuries are at risk of default as countries reduce their positions in them. I suspect that the reason Biden sold China oil from its strategic reserve recently was because China refused to get paid with treasuries for its goods. Japan recently sold off most of its US treasuries and bought lots of gold. Fewer countries want US debt. I've got Canadian loonies or "Dodos", like the extinct Dodo, to unload should the USD start a death spiral. Our central bank is loaded with T-bills. lol.
Ukraine is on the path to dividing the country into regions under the control of criminal-nationalist units. Deputy commander of the Azov brigade Sergei Tsisaruk (call sign “Molfar”) proposes to give the brigades the opportunity to mobilize themselves. “The only reliable way to speed up mobilization is to allow the combat brigades to handle this issue themselves. It’s simple, the brigade receives lists from the TRC (territorial recruitment center)and searches for evaders themselves. The fighters of the brigade are much more interested in replenishing the brigade, so bribes will not help,” writes Molfar. He believes that a brigade reconnaissance company will be able to mobilize a hundred people a week - “and these will not be the old guys who are now being brought in, but selected warriors who all this time have been running away from the wounded veterans serving in the TRC.” https://twitter.com/Molfar_4308/status/1769812271046213936
Molfar, like most of his nazi criminals, lives in an unreal alternate universe.
Ah yes, now we are in the feudal ages in "winning" Ukraine, where roving armies press gang all the male villagers after they ransack the town. Seems like a great idea, they should try it.
Doesn't point to a very positive future, but those who can have left hence the "missing" millions.
The only question is whether it works.
We subcontract some coding and website work (consumer shit, not defense/military) to a firm that employs a lot of young Ukrainian men in their 20s and early 30s.
None of them live in Ukraine and nor do they plan on visiting until after the war is over. The real fighting spirit of Ukraine's intellectual future is mostly fighting for permanent EU or US passports.
The question rolling down the tracks for the West, is can Smart/Dumb phones and AI produce food for empty bellies when "Modern Monetary Theory", the updated version of debasing silver coins, hits the brick wall.
A local dairy farm that produces about 2000 pounds of milk daily just when broke. Unbelievably they got caught up in the cheap money game, borrowed against their farm for other "can't go wrong " ventures and piled up $62 million in debt. The cracks in the dam are everywhere, but you have to look hard. Lots of stuff is deliberately hidden.
Russia is a real nation, with real resources and real people.
We, the West, are a bunch of whiney babies, stuck on the teat, believing Printing Money and injecting Debt is the real world.
So what does Russia propose to do about it?
I expect Putin will give you a call tonight to get your advice.
Russia doesn't have to do *anything* about so called elite brigades leaving the front line to do "recruiting" (aka running away....)
Excellent quick Update! Big Thanks!
I can only observe that actual American combat soldiers like Big Country Expat and Colonel McGregor, and their many friends have never given the Ukraine the slightest chance of prevailing against the Russian bear. From the beginning they have openly mocked the staff officers and politicians who said otherwise, and of course the lying press...But Simplicius does a wonderful job of providing detailed information about the conflict and the deranged politicians behind it..The sole question remaining is whether the maniacs and idiots running NATO take the rest of us down with them...
The probability is high.
The western leadership deck seems to be stacked with sociopaths who I'd suspect believe they have a spot in the great underground bunker.
It is unreal how our populations have been gaslit into being ruled by these mediocre sociopaths who have no idea how to govern in the nation's interests.
The problem is that their interests are no longer the same with the nation's interests.
Once the nukes are dropped, finding the bunkers and killing these idiots should be Job 1.
Where are the bunkers located for our Upper Caste to hide, when they get Nukes dropped on the rest of us? The unprotected survivors need directions to the bunkers.
As usual, the "elites" are out of touch. Modern nuclear weapons are far more precise than the ones used in 1945. I'm sure the Russians know exactly where all those bunkers are and will take them out pronto. It's only fair that the maniacs pushing us into WW3 get hit first.
I still want the bunker locations, so I can pick them off as they come out.
Indeed. Russia WILL go for Odessa - it has no choice. Then we'll see if the NATO fools in Romania/Moldavia really are stupid enough to try it on. What maniacs these people are! We haven't seen this level of delusion since Hitler's bunker.
Macron says: "Russia is an average power with a nuclear weapon, but whose GDP is much lower than that of Europeans, lower than that of Germany, of France."
Macron is insane. What percentage of France's GDP is debt? Almost 112-percent. Macron talks like only great powers to have debt, can afford great debt. France's national debt is like $3.2-trillion dollars. Russia's national debt is approximately $500-billion dollars, or 17-percent of Russia's GDP is debt.
What happened to the days when a responsible government carried a balanced budget, with very low debt, and being debt free was considered a badge of honor?
But then there's the United States. If you really want to talk crazy, at approximately $32-trillion dollars, the United States total debt accounted for 723.7 % of the country's GDP in 2023. The United States hasn't had a budget since 2000. It has been one continuing resolution (CR) after another.
Mark Twain once said: "There are lies and then ther are damned lies." What comes after "damned lies?"
France does not have a balanced budget since...1974.
NATO press releases
Some insight into the US debt interest:
3.65 trillion per year.....1 trillion every 100 days.
That's 10 billion a day. Aka 2 Border walls every day.
Where do you see this going?
Now you know why housing prices are through the roof.
Yes, and every other damn thing as well.
Admitted U.S. Federal Government Debt (see Fed Reserve, St. Louis) just went past $34 Trillion. The U.S. Federal Reserve has Debt approaching $8 Trillion (same source).
The West's choice is Great(est) Depression Ever or Weimar. Modern Weimar doesn't require wheelbarrows, just super computers to handle the extra zeros.
True. There is another option, though I doubt they will take it. Do what Hitler did, issue a new non inflationary currency for internal use. See quote and link below, which while not the best written, gets to the point.
He rebuilt Germany with that strategy, as well as killing off the opposition, but how much that influenced the financial strategy is a question for another day/year.
"Hitler began his National credit program by devising a plan of public works. Projects earmarked for funding included flood control, repair of public buildings and private residences, and construction of new buildings, roads, bridges, canals, and port facilities. The projected cost of the various programs was fixed at one billion units of the national currency. One billion Non-inflationary bills of exchange, called Labor Treasury Certificates, were then issued against this cost. Millions of people were put to work on these projects, and the workers were paid with the Treasury Certificates.” The government paid workers in Certificates. Workers spent those Certific Hates on other goods and services, thus creating more jobs for more people. In this way the German people climbed out of the crushing debt imposed on them by the international bankers.
Another great aspect of Hitler economic system was barter system. Germans successfully run that B.C system in 20 century and German foreign trade boosted enormously. Barter system cut down the international bankers, and eliminates the exposure to trade deficit. England was quite willing to lend money to buy raw materials but Germany insisted upon exchanging goods for goods.
“Germany will enter into no obligations to pay for her imports than she is capable of fulfilling. The German Government thus takes the standpoint of the respectable merchant who keeps his orders in harmony with his power to pay” (Hitler)"
https://operationdisclosure1.blogspot.com/2020/08/hitlers-monetary-system-real-cause-of.html
There was a bit more than that.
1. France had to pay Germany for the Occupaton Army.
2 German soldiers were issued Certificates (Promissory Notes) which were cashable at any French Bank into francs so they could buy French goods, like butter, and send them home to Germany.
3. But fundamentally, like the U.S. of today, all of the tricks played by the Nazi Finance Minister came down to stealing in the here and now and from the future. Confiscating jewish property in Germany and elsewhere, selling it to fill German coffers, invading other countries, stealing everything they could and filling German coffers.
1,2. those events came later and only once the country was back on its feet thanks to his internal nondilutable currency. And I do see item 2 as reasonable, the fact they sent stuff home is neither here or there is it?
re 3. I would say I don't see his national currency and barter plans as a trick. And his invasions at least initially were to recapture lands taken from Germany under the WW1 Treaty of Versailles. A nasty document if there ever was one. Things went sideways once he invaded Poland, and his Jewish, Gypsy, mentally bereft, pogroms are inexcusable.
As to point 2, it was a lot more than neither here nor there. The German Certificates were not redeemable by France for anything. They amounted to outright theft. And the French People suffered huge shortages as German soldiers sent French food and products out of France.
It is a long discussion, with this site inadequate for a venue, on how Schacht ended the hyperinflation and created the stable growth in prewar Germany. Once war was inevitable Schacht was thrown overboard and the financing by Plunder expanded uncontrolled.
But yes. Versailles was a mistake and a disaster. As written by J.M. Keynes.
And accelerating rapidly! Going vertical, looks like a crypto chart. No worries though. Saw a headline that Boden, err, Biden is telling Arizonians all about his plan to Invest in America today. Whew!
When you see something that makes no sense. That clearly is extremely harmful and yet those responsible act only to increase the harm, if nothing else, you can be damn sure you are being run off a cliff. Plan accordingly.
He is medically insane and a growing number of people is getting a reality check. It is said that he loosey goosey stated in feb with a glass of whisky in hand that he me have to send ‘dudes’ in odessa. The guy still believes this is a chess game. But the Brigitte Macron trans scandal
Is just around the corner and that may push his agenda and the envelop
Macron, Trudeau, and Obama all have ManWives. Interesting coincidence'
What is the Bridgette “trans” story, anyway? Psy-Op?
The GAO is blinded by the deep state's off balance sheet shenanigans. The FDIC is with holding data as people like John Titus back in early (Feb) 2023 exposed the real state of US banks based on third quarter data 2022. The inanities of western leaders reflects the mental breakdown as their planned WEF/IMF reset plans are going up in smoke leaving them with a busted flush.
32 trillion...PLUS the unfunded liabilities towards social security, medicare, pensions which is at least another 100-120.....and then we come to the state and local government level, who have another 3-5.....it never ends....
"Unfunded liabilities" for poor people's services are a myth. They are paid for by older generations to the younger until retirement when the younger generations start paying back for their education, health services etc. The services to poor people are the investments.
Investing in fat losers who are in their 2nd and 3rd generations of being government dependents seems like a very poor ROI.
U.S. might be able to afford better healthcare services if we could convince people to actually take care of themselves better. The majority of health problems can be minimized by exercise and a decent diet.
Eugenic fiction, people took more exercise when there was full employment for all not just for rich bastards. People with jobs used to be able to afford a decent diet. The state could help by inhibiting the sugar and fat industries from pushing their wares, same for the tobacco and alcohol trades instead of making it easy for them.
Don't insult Macron when he's got a million Parisian Baristas ready to fight.
It's like all the U.S. progressive baristas who shout "Slava Ukraina" while hating the idea of civilians owning firearms.
Real scary foot soldiers, right?
Statistics.
This never-ending deficit/debt will likely be one of the fracture points of a national divorce in the U.S. Let the northeast and mid-Atlantic old money states keep all that debt and let the midwest and south start over without being led by any of these Ivy League mediocrities.
"Let the northeast and mid-Atlantic old money states keep all that debt . . . ."
You do that and the old money does what it has done since time began: collect on all that debt, from all the debt slaves. Debt serfdom continues, even after the full-on systemic collapse.
Politicians.
"Modern Monetary Theory"
Grossly Distorted Product. GDP
Face it, Russia is getting humiliated in Ukraine, and it only gets worse as time goes on.
You will have even less success than you did in Afghanistan.
It all sounds like it is all getting worse to me. Because this is entirely correct isn't it? :
".... Today’s leaders are all totally immorally degraded puppets, likely placed in charge only on the basis of kompromat, and no longer have the necessary professional qualities or discretion of their forebears for the seriousness of the situation. Society, more stupefied by bread and circuses than ever, of course, is blind to their leaders’ total ignorance and dangerous provocations...... "
So disregard 'Society' if it refers to anything like the 'bon ton' because they are exactly the same stuff as the 'leaders', in fact that's where the leaders come from and that's a large part of the problem.
But as for the 'society' that means the hoi polloi then the message is clear: they need to be informed.
As quickly and as clearly and as simply as possible. And as often as possible.
I see no evidence of any campaign towards this end.
I never even see any suggestion that one should be mounted.
Well I think it should. Don't you?
p.s. Should we not give some consideration to the contention that the whole thing is merely the overt manifestation of struggles between what we might call 'mega oligarchs' or the real 'money powers' of the world?
Have we not perhaps seen some things that were that true might indicate they've come to a decision to wind this one down and go elsewhere and start up another one?
There is no method of mass communication that isn’t severely compromised by TPTB, and this moving masses of people from “passive ignorance” to “being informed “ to “being activated” seems almost impossible… by design.
I am a Brit who spends a lot of time in France and can enjoy meeting people from all over the world. Since 2022 I have met hundreds of "informed" people, not one of whom deviated in the slightest from the western narrative on the Ukraine. Mind you I have met only a few people from outside the "golden billion". And those that I do tend to live in the west for a reason. Having said this, I doubt the French or even the Brits relish the idea of war with Russia on the steppe.
well they are not informed are they? there's two 'levels' of informed people. your normal colonel blimp who is 'traditionally' informed, shall we say? and the che guevara 'revolutionary' shall we say? See?
They stand either side of the divide.
The mass of them of course not as extreme as those two 'archetype' examples.
On either side.
One side: a great majority is of course completely in accord with the accepted narrative aren't they?
The other side comprise the 'alt-media' when they are in the media. They, of course, ALL diverge from the accepted narrative.
My beef with them is that either side, neither side, does anything to help the people stir themselves, learn for themselves, become pro active.
Neither. None of them.
We the people are on our own. Because of that.
There is a way out: take up the machinery of democracy and make it work in a 21st century way with public individual and collective activity 24/7/52 via relevant apps on our computers and smart phones.
Get organised and speak in that way. They'll pay attention. Whoever 'they' are, when that happens.
https://abrogard.com/blog/2023/12/25/dont-write-to-congress/
So do you imply no one should try? It seems they're all taking your advice even before you give it then.
Actually people get massively informed all the time overnight so to speak. Just they get informed of trivial things or the wrongs things. In 'our' judgement.
Like they all suddenly know that Kate Middleton got topped by William. Like they suddenly all knew that covid was deadly.
And on and on and on.
The world has grown small. The mass moves in its mind now like a flock of a million birds all moving in harmony.
The so called 'leaders' are insane monsters not fit for purpose. Apparently behind the scenes are big money interests pulling the strings everywhere and they are clearly inhuman, totally unconcerned with human life, and there are the masses plodding along in dumb disinterest and delusion letting all this happen. In Ukraine's case half a million of them marching off to death without sensible cause.
Terrible. What/who is worse than all of those three groups?
The clerisy. You know the term? Encompasses all the 'know it alls'. All the pundits. All the commentators. All the social observers. All those who purport to know the ins and outs of every issue as it comes up. Those who purport to know the rights and wrongs of everything.
Why are they the worst?
Because it is they who should inform the people and lead the people in their prideful supposed superior knowledge and ability.
But I've watched them since early Covid.
And they do nothing.
But pontificate and denigrate. And preen..
I have written it many times- the most critical moment will be when it is certain that the Ukrainians face total defeat- at that moment, our idiot leaders in the West will be sorely tempted to go for broke and commit troops and aircraft. I was born and raised in the Cold War- I will have never been closer to dying in a nuclear conflagration than I will be if NATO decides to actively fight in Ukraine. These idiots seem to want to get us all killed.
Makes you wonder how bad things are for American Caesar if he's willing to go that far with his brinkmanship. Perhaps the Allied victory in Ukraine will be even better for us than I thought. That said, Russia and the Allies have done a good job of disarming Nato since they defeated the US-Ukronazis in the first 48 hours of the SMO.
The West (particularly America) is in love with death.
They are in love with power. If 99% of us have to die so that they can maintain that power over whatever is left, well, that's just collateral damage.
Modern western leaders have lived their entire political careers in environments where their terrible decisions have never led to consequences for themselves.
This explains their behavior. They're so insulated from the results of their policies that it simply doesn't occur to them that nukes can fly if they keep on pushing.
Can't wait to see Russia launch a few of those soon-to-come nuclear- powered cruise missiles and see what the US makes of those. They ain't weather balloons idiots!
The French are about to find out firsthand why it is that they are no longer not only a 'Continental Power'... but also completely irrelevant on the Global Stage. Hundreds of Frenchmen will be blown to Bits in order to garner said 'epiphany,' a Tragedy which will be the beginning of the End for the European chihuahuas & their audacity at claiming to be meaningful & relevant Geopolitical players.
Once again, a Tragedy which should never happen... but at this point, hard to avoid!
If you wish to Read & Listen to more of My commentary, here is my Main Stack:
https://thefallofthewest.substack.com?r=5jj6h
& Here is my Stack on American History (from the Primary Sources):
https://theannalsofamerica.substack.com?r=5jj6h
Thank You Again to Everyone!
They couldn't handle Niger, so want to go onto to Russia as a more mangeable option... Jeez.
That is funny, well put.
Like…huh? These are the people who defended the tractor factory!
All of those euroturds will soon be treating their own citizens like the neonazi zionist are now treating Gazans. Couldn't happen to a better group of people.
"euroturds"? The USA and its non-European allies are going down the same shithole.
Micron needs an enemy to be the Dictator at home. He will burn France down to stay in power
He's preparing his CV for the job after his Presidency.
Macron remains a loyal functionary to Rothschild Paris interests. They need to retain Ukrainian collateral.