SITREP 3/19/24: French Military Openly Floats 20,000 Troop Deployment
Things keep ratcheting up in Ukraine, with France continuing its saber-rattling escalatory spiral.
Let’s quickly run down the new separate signals being sent from all across NATO:
In a new Le Parisien piece, Macron reportedly reiterated the eventual need for ground troops to save Ukraine:
In fact, Macron showed his dangerous hubris in the article by reciting the trope about Russia being a middling gas station with nukes:
"Putin has a discourse of fear. It should not be intimidated, we don't have in front of us a great power. Russia is an average power with a nuclear weapon, but whose GDP is much lower than that of Europeans, lower than that of Germany, of France."
Of course, leave it to a Rothschild banker to not understand how PPP index works for trade surplus countries.
This was followed by France’s Chief of Army Staff Pierre Schill implying in Le Monde that the army would be ready for any such task:
He delineates specifically that France has 1 full division of 20,000 troops which can be inserted within 30 days:
This was backed by a new video from French TV which shows French Lieutenant-colonel Vincent Arbaretier openly discussing the types of military deployments the 20,000-strong French contingent can undertake in Ukraine.
The first clip has the most salient points, while the other is the full segment:
Full:
And this latest French sally was topped off by Russia’s spy chief Naryshkin’s rattling statement that France is preparing 2,000 troops for deployment:
MOSCOW, March 19. /tass/. The Russian side has data that France is already preparing a military contingent for sending to Ukraine, at the initial stage it will be about 2 thousand people. This was stated by the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin. His comment is available to TASS.
In fact, he states that the 2,000 number would be just the “initial stage”, but claims that such a force would become a priority target for Russian strikes:
At the initial stage, it will be about 2 thousand people," Naryshkin said.
According to the director of the SVR, the French military is afraid that such a significant unit will not be able to be quietly transferred to Ukraine and quartered there. "Thus, it will become a priority legitimate target for attacks by the Russian Armed Forces. This means that the fate of all Frenchmen who have ever come to the territory of the Russian world with a sword awaits him, " Naryshkin concluded.
What’s interesting is that a separate Russian report appears to corroborate this, though I have no information as to its authenticity, so take it with a large grain of salt:
According to information based on intercepted conversations and e-mails, France is mobilizing 1,800 truck-driving reservists to transport fuel and military equipment to Ukraine. Marie Mercier, an obscure senator from Saône-et-Loire but vice-president of the Senate's France-Ukraine friendship group, appears to be coordinating this operation in liaison with André Accary (left in photo), president of the Saône-et-Loire departmental council. Régis Poiraud (right in photo), reserve non-commissioned officer and president of UDSOR (Union Départementale des Sous-Officiers) in Saône-et-Loire, a close associate of Senator Mercier, is said to be in charge of operational organization.
For the record, the French Defense Minister officially denied the Russian claims:
The French Defense Ministry denies a plan to send 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine
The military department claims that the statement of the head of the SVR Naryshkin about the training of 2,000 French military personnel to be sent to Ukraine does not correspond to reality.
The text of the statement used the usual phrases about "irresponsible provocation" and "disinformation operations."
Meanwhile, French TV is actively discussing the dispatch of military personnel and their deployment on the territory of Ukraine.
This is followed by some questionable reports about French mercenaries already spotted heading to Ukraine via Bulgaria—inconclusive video at above link.
French mercenaries have been spotted in Bulgaria on their way to Ukraine?
Locals claim to have seen convoys of French mercenaries and equipment near the town of Sliven, flying to Sofia and then travelling by truck to Ukraine. The day before, the US Navy cargo ship Leroy A. Mendonica delivered to the port of Alexandroupolis in northern Greece a shipment of military equipment to be deployed in Europe as part of the "reinforcement of NATO forces on the continent".
Not to mention that Azov Brigade reportedly released this timely video officially “welcoming” the French legion to come help them in Ukraine:
Translation of the end splash-screen:
Meanwhile Spain’s El Pais paper confirmed that European troops have already long been in Ukraine:
And as an aside on Spain—its Defense Minister Margarita Robles had the audacity to fearmonger of the “real threat” that Putin’s missiles can reach Spain:
Fortunately, she seemed to unequivocally rule out Spanish troops ever being deployed to Ukraine in the future. But can someone enlighten me as to why Putin would ever decide to strike Spain of all places? The baseless fearmongering from these Euro-mutants is simply unhinged!
"We cannot rule out the possibility that British soldiers will go to Ukraine to confront Putin's regime," – former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace.
In the above Politico piece, former MI6 head Richard Dearlove warns:
“If you stopped anyone in the street here in the U.K. and asked them whether they thought Britain is at war, they’d look at you as if you were mad,” Dearlove said. “But we are at war — we’re engaged in a gray war with Russia, and I am trying to remind people of that.”
All the ‘Loves’ are such lovely folk, huh? Dearlove, Breedlove, Strangelove…
Again we come to this recurring question: why now?
If France was truly that concerned with Odessa, specifically, falling, then it certainly would not be militating toward an intervention any time soon, as Russia appears years away from threatening Odessa—lest there’s some gigantic amphibious and air assault in the works we aren’t aware of.
By logical deduction we can only assume that it’s not the imminent fall of any one particular zone, like Odessa, that has them so worried, but presumably the disintegration of the AFU as a functioning military force itself. One of the clues to that was the French colonel’s video, highlighting graphics of France’s hypothetical deployment to the northern Ukrainian border regions or the Dnieper River zone with precisely the intention we broke here first—namely, to alleviate Ukrainian rear units of their uneventful duties to allow them to replenish the depleted combat forces at the front.
That being said, technically speaking, a 20,000-man division—by standards of classical military theory—is supposed to be able to hold, maximum, a 10km-front, give or take, not 700km+ like the northern border spanning from Belarus to Sumy region or even the similar length of the Dnieper. Sure, this is an inactive front so there could be some leeway, but even so. That being said, they could seek not to cover the whole front but rather free up 20,000 additional AFU fighters, for example.
Military journalist Alexander Kharchenko:
Looking at the European continent from Africa, I don’t understand what Ukraine hopes for. Even if the French bring in 20,000 corps, they will not be able to close even the Bakhmut direction. Kyiv may not have the most advanced army, but under the walls of this city they only lost over 40,000 soldiers killed. Whether the French are ready to renew their contingent twice and declare mobilization is a big question.
Alexander Kharchenko
But what else could possibly have Macron so rattled as to bear down into such desperate flights? Well, the news from authoritative sources continues to be quite grim for Ukraine.
Borrell gives us a clue:
"It's this spring, this summer before autumn that the war in Ukraine will be decided," Borrell told reporters Thursday afternoon.
Borrell said that in all his meetings, he has stressed the consequences of what a Russian victory in Ukraine would be.
If President Vladimir Putin "wins this war and conquers Ukraine and puts a puppet regime in Kyiv -- as the one we already have in Belarus – he will not stop there," Borrell said.
"The next months will be decisive," he said, adding that "whatever has to be done, it has to be done quickly."
Whatever has to be done, must be done rápidamente!
Why the sudden urgency?
"Many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer and Ukraine cannot wait until the result of the next US elections," Borrell said.
So is it the expected new Russian spring offensive that’s got them so worried?
Could it have anything to do with this?
In a new interview, Polish general Rajmund Andrzejczak states:
He believes that after 2026, Russia may attack a NATO country—which merely telegraphs NATO’s own intentions to provoke Russia into another war by that time.
How bad is the Ukrainian situation, according to the general?
Problems of Ukraine. "Dramatic situation"
"Very, very dramatic," is how the general described the situation at the front in Ukraine.
"There are no miracles in war. A change in the post of commander-in-chief could not change the strategic situation. General Sirsky has the same dilemmas as General Zaluzhny. It turned out that he had to withdraw his troops and put the front line in order. All the problems that Zaluzhny had remained, " Andrzejczak pointed out.
And finally, the big bombshell that has everyone pulling their hair out—Ukraine’s total losses are in the “millions”:
It’s unclear if he’s counting men that have fled the country here or not, but the conclusion is the same: Ukraine has “no one left to fight”.
For those interested, the full interview is below, and has many other interesting tidbits:
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So, can such grim tidings possibly be true, or mere exaggeration to accelerate aid?
This new WaPo article seems to corroborate the claims of troop depletion:
“It’s just a fact,” said Larysa Bodna, deputy director of the local school, which keeps a database of students whose parents are deployed. “Most of them are gone.”
Ukraine desperately needs more troops, with its forces depleted by deaths, injuries and exhaustion. Despite Russia’s own enormous casualties, the invaders still far outnumber Ukraine’s defenders, an advantage that is helping Moscow advance on the battlefield. Ukraine’s parliament is debating a bill to expand the draft pool, in part by lowering the eligibility age to 25 from 27, but few decisions are being made in Kyiv that will quickly answer the army’s urgent needs.
Outwardly Zelensky and co. claim there are no coercive mobilizations happening, but WaPo refutes this:
Civilians here say that means military recruiters are grabbing everyone they can. In the west, the mobilization drive has steadily sown panic and resentment in small agricultural towns and villages like Makiv, where residents said soldiers working for draft offices roam the near-empty streets searching for any remaining men. Such tactics have led some to believe that their men are being targeted disproportionately compared with other regions or bigger cities like Kyiv, where it is easier to hide.
The amount of disturbing quotables from this article is jaw-dropping:
“Almost all our men have been scraped out,” said Serhii, 47, an infantry soldier from Makiv who was drafted in March 2022 and serves in Ukraine’s 115th brigade.
A slew of other articles joined the grim chorus, as has become the norm these past few months:
The above WaPo piece opens with a ‘bleak’ prediction:
U.S. officials foresee a range of bleak scenarios in Ukraine if the military aid President Biden has requested doesn’t materialize, including a catastrophic breakdown of Ukrainian lines in the grimmest contingency and the likelihood of massive casualties in the best.
For the first time, they are openly using the dreaded ‘C’ word—collapse:
“This doesn’t go well for Ukraine over time without a supplemental, and it could lead to potential collapse,” a senior U.S. official said. “But here’s the bottom line: Even if Ukraine holds on, what we really are saying is that we are going to leverage countless lives in order to do that.”
In the piece, CIA director Burns is quoted saying that the territorial losses this year will be “significant” if aid isn’t rendered.
Speaking anonymously another U.S. government source said:
“Whether it ends in collapse or large casualties” remains a subject of internal debate, the senior official said. “But there is no future that is bright for Ukraine without a supplemental and continued U.S. support.”
As you can see: they have bridged the final chasm, and are now opening invoking the most verboten of dilemmas: that Ukraine may totally collapse. Is this the explanation for the sudden urgency and desperate talks of injecting NATO troops? Are things within the AFU far worse than they seem?
They go on to state that Ukraine’s air defense in particular has depleted to such a point they may soon only target 1 out of every 5 Russian missiles:
While Ukraine has tried to shoot down 4 of every 5 missiles fired at its cities, it soon may be able to target only 1 in 5, one of those officials said. That would have a significant effect on life in Ukraine’s urban centers, many of which have assumed a relative normalcy over the last year as missile defense has generally proved effective.
Meanwhile, here’s what Ukraine’s AD has to contend with:
One report states:
Militarist
Over the past two months, Ukrainian army losses have increased by 70% compared to the previous year. This is reported to be due to the rapid increase in the intensity and accuracy of glide bomb strikes.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian army still cites funny numbers like 20-30 bombs every day, air strikes using at least 300-400 glide bombs are carried out even on the calmest day.
The real destruction will begin soon, when this figure begins to reach 500, and then 1000 bombs per day
And AFU’s top radioelectronics and drone expert, Serhiy Flash, said that soon—in four months’ time—Russia will be producing enough FPV drones to target every individual AFU soldier, which will condemn 99% of the AFU to death:
And the bad news keeps rolling in for NATO:
By the way, wasn’t capitalism supposed to be so clearly superior to planned/managed economies? Recent MSM pieces complain that Western countries can’t compete with Russia’s defense sector because Putin utilizes a planned economy:
Well, that’s embarrassing.
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ISW foresees a new Russian offensive later this year:
And even admitted to Russia’s increasing ability to adapt to all challenges:
Lastly, in my style of tempering any wild conclusions too far to one side or the other, I will note that the optimism-mongers of the EU do claim to have ‘found’ a secret new stash of 800k shells from some unnamed ‘Russian ally’—some believe it to be Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, India, etc. If there is any truth to it, the shell amount could be nearly a year’s worth for the AFU—however, I still reserve the judgment that it could be a desperate ploy on the order of bluff or exaggeration meant to buoy the catastrophic outlook currently sweeping the Western camp.
There are likewise various reports of new ‘pacts’ being formed that could flood Ukraine with another huge batch of armored vehicles:
But once again, for now I view it as nothing more than wishful thinking.
In fact, leading theories portray the Western ammunition situation being so pitiful as to result in France running out of ammo in a mere 4 days of serious conflict against Russia:
Not to mention all the talk of buildup appears to always smack its forehead against the brick wall of reality:
But it’s still a serious threat that needs to be considered, especially since Europe is actively continuously planning for a future war, or at least trying to convince the relevant parties to do so.
For instance, not only is Moldova’s Maia Sandu now openly discussing a referendum to join the EU, which is only a precursor to then joining NATO soon afterwards:
But Estonia’s Kaja Kallas is agitating for nuclear war, telling the public that Putin’s nuclear threats should not be taken seriously:
I said this on X, but I’ll repeat it here: in many ways the Cold War was a far safer time because it had more serious, non-psychopathic people in charge who actually respected the dangers of nuclear holocaust. Today’s leaders are all totally immorally degraded puppets, likely placed in charge only on the basis of kompromat, and no longer have the necessary professional qualities or discretion of their forebears for the seriousness of the situation. Society, more stupefied by bread and circuses than ever, of course, is blind to their leaders’ total ignorance and dangerous provocations.
Lastly, it was reported that Romania is allegedly constructing what will be the largest base in Europe, even larger than Ramstein and right on Ukraine’s border, and is clearly meant to be the primary operating node against Russia in the region:
Construction of the largest NATO military base in Europe, designed for 10 thousand military personnel, began on the territory of Romania.
The facility, designed to simultaneously accommodate 10 thousand military personnel with their families, is being built on an area of almost three thousand hectares near Constanta, a Romanian port on the Black Sea. Previously, the NATO airbase "Mihail Kogalniceanu" was located there.
“The base will become the most important permanent NATO military structure in close proximity to the conflict in southern Ukraine. Let’s not imagine that this conflict will end in 2025 or 2026, this is a long-term conflict,” said Romanian expert Dorin Popescu.
The €2.5 billion project includes runways, weapons platforms, hangars for military aircraft, as well as schools, kindergartens, shops and a hospital.
Put the above pieces together and it’s clear the goal is to bring Moldova into the fold, entrench the region and create massive military buildups there to make sure Russia can never take back Odessa or retain supremacy over the Black Sea. That is why it is more imperative than ever for Russia to get the job done, capture Odessa and unlock PMR to keep from being strangled by NATO. Don’t forget, PMR just suffered one of its first direct military assaults, as an Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed by an ‘unknown’ FPV drone, a provocation with a clear angle.
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I’ll leave you with a final couple videos:
In Georgievka, one of the larger AFU troop surrenders of recent memory:
Meanwhile Legitmny reports:
Next:
Russian special forces inspect the destroyed Abrams near Berdychi, Avdeevka—which hopefully can be captured and towed out in the near future:
As a final item:
Here’s two new very good pieces from M.K. Bhadrakumar. The first entitled ‘Novorossiya’ rising from ashes like phoenix’, which summarizes a lot of the points discussed here, with Europe’s terminal agony regarding U.S.’s potential withdrawal amid the realization of their own inconsequentiality.
The second even more nourishingly erudite one is: ‘France all dressed up and nowhere to go’. If you have only time for one, I strongly recommend treating yourself to the second one.
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If the French are so foolish as to openly deploy in Ukraine, they must be attacked vigorously and continuously, maximizing their casualties. It's the only lesson that will work, apparently.
I'm sure Russian military folks can't wait for these troops to come in. Whatever inhibitions the Russians might have against killing Ukrainians will obviously not apply to interventionists, and they will likely want to make a vivid and convincing demonstration to make other "willing" think twice before getting involved. And also to show this little Napoleon it's place.