There’s not any one particular big update today, but things continue heating up everywhere, on every global front. Israel steams ahead but still tiptoes around Gaza City without entering its heart. Expert commentators have noted how Israel sticks to their armored vehicles and has very few patrolling foot soldiers to guard them—the exact ‘amateurish mistake’ that Russian mechanized forces were accused of making in the early part of the war.
You forget to mention that Israel is constantly on a war footing and has been since 1948.
The country is an armed camp.
That means the country and it's economy has long ago adapted to that specific situation and it has a far smaller effect than shortsighted, memoryless, blabbering "experts" think.
Don't believe me?
Have a look at Israel's 2014 war with Hamas in Gaza.
Did it affect tourism?
Yes.
For a few months.
Did it have a major and lasting effect on Israel's economy?
No.
Israel's economy just keeps on powering ahead despite what nay yappers say or think.
Before the war in 2014 Israel's economy had a GDP of about 314 billion USD.
In 2022 it was about 522 billion USD.
That's over 7.5% annual growth p/a.
Even if this war costs Israel 50 billion USD - and it will probably be closer to 20, Israel has the reserves to afford it even if it does reduce GDP somewhat temporarily.
Israel's economy is/going to "buckle"?
I think not.
So Russia also faced tunnels in Ukraine?
Yes, and it cost the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers - even with careful preparation and heavy weaponry support.
That was slow, hard and bloody work.
Remember Azovstal and the rest of Mariupol?
Easy and quick wasn't it?
Remember the underground mine galleries of Bakhmut?
Russia had to resort to closing off some of those galleries and gassing the Ukrainian defenders inside because sending its own people in there was just plain suicide.
And this despite the defenders having such a deficit in weaponry and manpower that they knew they were facing certain defeat.
So, Israel must just ignore those lessons and rush in against another drugged out, indoctrinated, fanatical enemy that's had 16 years to dig themselves into ratholes?
You're completely insane.
That's a recipe for disaster.
Israel is doing what must be done if it wants to keep its own casualties to a minimum.
Taking it slowly and carefully.
Areas are occupied, then cleared to prevent Ham-Ass scum from sneaking in and attacking from behind and beneath.
Only then can the Army move on to occupy the next area.
As a result your barefoot "freedom fighters" are being squeezed to death in smaller and smaller areas.
That excludes Hamas' top leadership, of course.
They're not in Gaza dying with the barefoot plebs and the rest of the poor idiots that actually had faith in them.
They're living it up off the money they stole in five star hotels in Qatar and playing with expensive prostitutes.
PS:
You're relying on the same crowd of "experts" that were completely wrong about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
If there's one thing this lot has proven it's that they're completely useless at forecasting.
All these people are good at is blowing gas and making clouds of irrelevant paper.
Why does Simplicius say 70-80k in the initial invasion? Were the rest Donbas units, Rosgvardia, etc? I thought the consensus was around 120-190k in the initial invasion?
The Israelis will come out of this richer and stronger than before. They will milk the US treasury for all that its worth and politicians from both the senate and the house will literally fall over themselves to see who can prostrate themselves the most. They play the US-lobby game better than anyone else.
Whats your timeline on Avdeevka? I think by end Feb at the latest it should be done and dusted. On the other hand, the stuff coming out of Kiev appears more and more unhinged. When I saw that "actually the counter offensive was a psy op" video I was 100% sure it was a meme video made by Pro-Ru accounts... till it actually turned out to be a real Ukr video. I still can't believe it.
Re Israel-Gaza, I think Syria is the one to watch in all of this. Most people (who paid any attention) understood Iran's influence on the Iraq War. That said, most were unaware of Syria's influence, and it has a serious list of scores to settle with Israel. Portraying Assad as a one-dimensional, comic book villain, in the same way Putin is caricatured, would be foolish but he may well take the opportunity for a reglement de compte.
Gaza and Ukraine, a complete disaster for the "brilliant" western armies, even the "most powerful" army in West Asia is as incompetent as the "world's most powerful" army was in Afghanistan, both incapable of dealing with lightly armed guerrilla fighters. What irony.
funny how quick the hasbara flood the internet forum and websites with their usual 1) low level insulter / smear jobs 2) concern troll spreading FUD hidden beneath pretend concern 3) high level polite hasbara who tried to skew the discussion based on made up facts 4) the 'poison the well' hasbara who pretend to be anti israeli but constantly post hilarious anti jew conspicary nonsense
I'd be willing to bet operational pacing by the Israelis is by design. They've got Hamas in N Gaza cut off and largely immobilized which means the Israelis enjoy all substantive initiative. It will be interesting to see what they choose to do next. Flood the tunnels perhaps?
I think you answered a question I have. It looks to me like the Muslim world will let Israel kill all the remaining Palestinians without taking any effective military action against Israel. But perhaps they're giving Israel more rope to hang themselves. For the entirety of the occupation the Muslim world has shamelessly used the Palestinians without providing significant assistance. So I am skeptical that the Muslim world will take direct action to save the Palestinians.
As one of the articles points out the Israeli economy wasn't doing very well before the genocide. The insane Israeli behavior isn't going to help it now. You don't pull 300k reservists out of the work force and expect it to be a positive result. Tourism, forget it. Boycotts of Israeli products, everywhere. If the Arabian call for a embargo on Israeli goods coming and going takes hold, it's bye-bye.
Israel's economy:
Reuters: Israel economy: Gaza war sends economy into the unknown
Interesting interview from Michael Hudson. He believes the US wanted war with Iran for a long time and will use this opportunity to attack them. Hence the military build-up, and the support for Israel's escalation is bait for Iran.
"Israeli economy buckles"
Right.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Israel is not Ukraine pal.
The comparison is a bit....
Wobbly.
To say the least.
You forget to mention that Israel is constantly on a war footing and has been since 1948.
The country is an armed camp.
That means the country and it's economy has long ago adapted to that specific situation and it has a far smaller effect than shortsighted, memoryless, blabbering "experts" think.
Don't believe me?
Have a look at Israel's 2014 war with Hamas in Gaza.
Did it affect tourism?
Yes.
For a few months.
Did it have a major and lasting effect on Israel's economy?
No.
Israel's economy just keeps on powering ahead despite what nay yappers say or think.
Before the war in 2014 Israel's economy had a GDP of about 314 billion USD.
In 2022 it was about 522 billion USD.
That's over 7.5% annual growth p/a.
Even if this war costs Israel 50 billion USD - and it will probably be closer to 20, Israel has the reserves to afford it even if it does reduce GDP somewhat temporarily.
Israel's economy is/going to "buckle"?
I think not.
So Russia also faced tunnels in Ukraine?
Yes, and it cost the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers - even with careful preparation and heavy weaponry support.
That was slow, hard and bloody work.
Remember Azovstal and the rest of Mariupol?
Easy and quick wasn't it?
Remember the underground mine galleries of Bakhmut?
Russia had to resort to closing off some of those galleries and gassing the Ukrainian defenders inside because sending its own people in there was just plain suicide.
And this despite the defenders having such a deficit in weaponry and manpower that they knew they were facing certain defeat.
So, Israel must just ignore those lessons and rush in against another drugged out, indoctrinated, fanatical enemy that's had 16 years to dig themselves into ratholes?
You're completely insane.
That's a recipe for disaster.
Israel is doing what must be done if it wants to keep its own casualties to a minimum.
Taking it slowly and carefully.
Areas are occupied, then cleared to prevent Ham-Ass scum from sneaking in and attacking from behind and beneath.
Only then can the Army move on to occupy the next area.
As a result your barefoot "freedom fighters" are being squeezed to death in smaller and smaller areas.
That excludes Hamas' top leadership, of course.
They're not in Gaza dying with the barefoot plebs and the rest of the poor idiots that actually had faith in them.
They're living it up off the money they stole in five star hotels in Qatar and playing with expensive prostitutes.
PS:
You're relying on the same crowd of "experts" that were completely wrong about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
If there's one thing this lot has proven it's that they're completely useless at forecasting.
All these people are good at is blowing gas and making clouds of irrelevant paper.
“ If it was any NATO army doing what Russia is currently doing, they would be celebrated and wreathed with glory, ”
- I urge you to read western analyses of NATO aggression 1999. on Yugoslavia and to see how NATO underperforms!
E.g. for 78 days of “air superiority” they manage to destroy 8 of 300 Serbian tanks.
If you wish I can make you a list of western analysis of that war. First one to read is RAND analysis…
For 78 days of “precision” bombardment they kill 1005 soldiers and more than 3000 civilians!
Why does Simplicius say 70-80k in the initial invasion? Were the rest Donbas units, Rosgvardia, etc? I thought the consensus was around 120-190k in the initial invasion?
The Israelis will come out of this richer and stronger than before. They will milk the US treasury for all that its worth and politicians from both the senate and the house will literally fall over themselves to see who can prostrate themselves the most. They play the US-lobby game better than anyone else.
Whats your timeline on Avdeevka? I think by end Feb at the latest it should be done and dusted. On the other hand, the stuff coming out of Kiev appears more and more unhinged. When I saw that "actually the counter offensive was a psy op" video I was 100% sure it was a meme video made by Pro-Ru accounts... till it actually turned out to be a real Ukr video. I still can't believe it.
Good article, Simply!
Re Israel-Gaza, I think Syria is the one to watch in all of this. Most people (who paid any attention) understood Iran's influence on the Iraq War. That said, most were unaware of Syria's influence, and it has a serious list of scores to settle with Israel. Portraying Assad as a one-dimensional, comic book villain, in the same way Putin is caricatured, would be foolish but he may well take the opportunity for a reglement de compte.
Gaza and Ukraine, a complete disaster for the "brilliant" western armies, even the "most powerful" army in West Asia is as incompetent as the "world's most powerful" army was in Afghanistan, both incapable of dealing with lightly armed guerrilla fighters. What irony.
It's pretty horrifying that a pregnant woman would be on the front lines.
funny how quick the hasbara flood the internet forum and websites with their usual 1) low level insulter / smear jobs 2) concern troll spreading FUD hidden beneath pretend concern 3) high level polite hasbara who tried to skew the discussion based on made up facts 4) the 'poison the well' hasbara who pretend to be anti israeli but constantly post hilarious anti jew conspicary nonsense
Why are vehicles moving during day on roads?
Instead of during the night?
Of course Iran is in the driver's seat now. It is "driving" with BRICS. The global order that made the US the sole superpower has shifted.
The Israel/Palestine conflict plays into BRICS goals and objectives.
PS: Can a drone hunt and kill enemy drones?
Especially cheap FPV drones?
Are such drones possible and being manufactured?
PS2: Simplicius: I think that "Clarence Wilhelm Spangle" troll should be banned from commenting on this site.
I'd be willing to bet operational pacing by the Israelis is by design. They've got Hamas in N Gaza cut off and largely immobilized which means the Israelis enjoy all substantive initiative. It will be interesting to see what they choose to do next. Flood the tunnels perhaps?
I think you answered a question I have. It looks to me like the Muslim world will let Israel kill all the remaining Palestinians without taking any effective military action against Israel. But perhaps they're giving Israel more rope to hang themselves. For the entirety of the occupation the Muslim world has shamelessly used the Palestinians without providing significant assistance. So I am skeptical that the Muslim world will take direct action to save the Palestinians.
As one of the articles points out the Israeli economy wasn't doing very well before the genocide. The insane Israeli behavior isn't going to help it now. You don't pull 300k reservists out of the work force and expect it to be a positive result. Tourism, forget it. Boycotts of Israeli products, everywhere. If the Arabian call for a embargo on Israeli goods coming and going takes hold, it's bye-bye.
Israel's economy:
Reuters: Israel economy: Gaza war sends economy into the unknown
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/existential-shock-war-sends-israeli-economy-into-unknown-2023-10-24/
Israel’s war economy is working—for the time being
The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the pressure
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/26/israels-war-economy-is-working-for-the-time-being
Israel’s Economy Takes Hit From War, But Shows Signs of Resilience
Tourism and commerce bearing the brunt of the economic effect
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israels-economy-takes-hit-from-war-but-shows-signs-of-resilience-8d8cab20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AeAfFfTqMk&ab_channel=GeopoliticalEconomyReport
Interesting interview from Michael Hudson. He believes the US wanted war with Iran for a long time and will use this opportunity to attack them. Hence the military build-up, and the support for Israel's escalation is bait for Iran.