As we head into fall and winter, the situation continues to worsen for Ukraine. The biggest developments have happened outside the locus of the conflict itself, but rather in the geopolitical scene where Ukraine is faced with a disastrous loss of financial support.
Russia wins. USA backs off China as domestic troubles grow. Immigration hate becomes regular violence. McDonald's get targeted by robbers until half of them are forced to close down. Mass shooter kills blue-eyed babies in hospital. Local terrorism incident by Nazi American with Ukrainian PTSD. Trump goes to prison before heart attack, or his heart attack creates Qanon v.03. Political assassination of a good-looking politician. Lab created super herpes virus released, dumb people too scared to masturbate, turn to fetanyl as population plummets. Military Industrial Complex compensates for loss in foreign sales by turning the USA into Palestine, a dystopia welcomed by the majority, the overweight Public who delivered themselves to the fear campaign that shitty McDonalds' burgers might go extinct.
I was thankful watching that slip-up on Sky News, Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko admitting Russia was winning. Saw it on Larry's page this morning. If there were integrity in MSM, that clip would've been syndicated.
It escapes my wildest imagination why McDonald's is some folk's favourite meal. Braai a butcher's patty , throw it on a roll with tomato and onion, and we've got something better. I see as much madness in McDonald's thinking as war furthering democracy. The USA is the perfect specimen for the history of the effect of marketing.
i recall liking mcdonalds as a teenager, but 40 years later i havent had one in 10 years. To be honest, the fries were the draw, and the ice cream, before they were permabroken
In 1957, I was buying burgers and fries from one of the first McDonalds in America. I'd guess their quality has dropped 95% or so since then, and their value proposition even more.
im pretty sure in the late 90s or early 90s they moved all the fries up a size, so what was regular (in the paper bag) became small, large became regular etc
The mind reasons "no," but the body overrules with its insatiable desire for these salty French Fries, for those of us who let the body be in charge. Like an addiction. Anyway, the McDonalds where I usually stop has been replaced by a Subway (meat and vegetable sandwiches), so all is good and nutritious now.
lol no one would ever go back if they made their own Big Mac Sauce - 1/4 cup each mayo, mustard, tomato sauce diced red onion n gerkin. Smash homemade mince patty on to a soft taco, place patty side pan down in fry pan, flip, put a slice of cheese on top, when that melts cover with Mc D sauce, fold in half and eat yum,. Hi all from paradise on earth, New Zealand, thank Simplicus for keeping this kiwi well informed, hope you enjoy the coffee
I talked to a bona fide French chef de cuisine, who commented that, some days you don't want an artisanal gourmet steakburger made from sustainable Wagyu beef or whatever, what you want is...a Big Mac.
"In March 2011, Cyril Ramaphosa (now President of South Africa) secured a 20-year agreement to run 145 McDonald’s restaurants in South Africa. Unlike a regular conventional franchisee, Ramaphosa owned all of McDonald’s assets, including owning or leasing property."
In 2016, he sold it to a company in United Arab Emirates.
Ramaphosa became a billionaire through shares given to him by large corporations. Here, they label being bought as black economic empowerment. I repeat my thought that the transition from Apartheid to the Rainbow Nation was a democracy marketing package and financial transaction arranged by the USA. Interference in our politics has never stopped which is why our 'democracy' is as fake as the USA's. McDonald's reminds me of that.
Ramaphosa is not clean at all just as he is a smooth talker who has fraudulently won the respect of many within the ANC and the rich black elites, much to the delight of his rich banker oligarchs backers.. Just as Julius and the DA would not be helpful to this country, Cereal also is like a worm inside of an apple...
Grew up when Mac had burger fries and shake and you got change from a dollar. Sign said hundreds of thousands sold. Not sure who the FDA protects now or then, what do they put in that stuff?
Statements from the MSM may propel a decreasing number of Westerners to obey the desired narrative. However those same 'truths' are highly motivational to the Russian people. They feel nato breathing down their neck. They hear what their kids have to say when they get leave. The Russian population acts like they are facing an existential threat.
Whereas in North America, more and more of us feel the greatest threat is from our own government. Led by a cabal of globalist that mostly seem to want dead people, lots of dead people.
Two ways to control an angry country, make it fight itself or give it a common enemy. The CIA is capable of the latter so its interesting that they're using the other option.
It must be a running joke for them, these numbskulls running frantically about fighting each other while we are the ones truly intent on their demise. Much of MSM can be deciphered just on seeing most media as Psychological Projection.
Another thing that's out of people's view: APPARENTLY, the FED (USA's central bank) has been running a deficit this entire year. The deficit of the central bank is the necessary and sufficient condition for hyperinflation.
The hyperinflation of the US dollar might have begun. If so, the "Great Reset" - of the financial system - has begun.
But I still need to verify the deficit and I'll also be looking for additional effects of early-stage hyperinflation before I actually commit myself to "USD hyperinflation" thesis.
There is a book with the title, "The Great Reckoning" that's written by two authors whose names escape me. The book is over twenty years old. The authors pointed it out succinctly years ago that the US financial system was bankrupt and rotten to the core and with time, the roof was going to fall in.. All that is happening around the dollar system is the biggest scam which too few in the world will ever be able to unravel or fathom... Compared to the experimental jabs, the dollar scam has killed (and still does), many people around the globe without them having an inkling about the venom that's built into the system..
Not sure about the Fed running a deficit, but they are underwater. They bought a ton of long maturity debt at rock bottom rates post 2008 through Covid, a lot of which is risky mortgage backed securities that they bought at face value. They're trying to unwind that right now, but I doubt they can do it successfully.
The Fed can't run a deficit outside of accounting trickery GAAP). The Fed and social security are the two largest holders of treasury debt. As interest rates rise the underlying value of the assets (treasuries) drop. If interest rates fails the value rises.
The whole fiat banking system is at risk because the banks have to hold treasuries. Think Failed SVB × 1,000,000.
Thankfully we will always have the Too Big To Fails: BOA, CitiBank and others.
I'm not sure that the US will back down from China if Russia wins. It'll be a huge blow to their prestige, and therefore the US will be even more desperate for a conflict which they believe they can win, to prove the Ukraine loss was just a "fluke".
Now, I'm not saying they believe that they can win a war with China, but it's not implausible.
Afghanistan: I wonder why anyone including the Taliban can even think they would win a war here. The Country is run by different clans not one person in sole control.
I think they will, given the fact that the US military is not in its best shape. Cool heads will prevail in the end they way it happened with the sacking of the Speaker...
The US government has already made public multiple war games they simulated with China, and even the rosiest of them put the number of US dead troops above 10k in the first 2 weeks. Everyone in DC deep down knows we're a paper tiger at this point.
There is starting to be an orchestration campaign to reinstitute an active draft. Having lived through Vietnam and the Sixties, I can tell you that's not going to fly.
The hegemon can never back off and so the US and its enablers in Europe and Australasia will be destroyed. Every poke at Russia and China simply brings that inevitable hour forward. It could all have been so different if the real soldiers hadn't been weeded out in the West as they would long ago have marched on their Capitol and Parliaments to arrest the WEF lackies plotting the West's downfall there.
All these deaths, a result of American planning to use Ukrainian men as pawns in a war of attrition to dismantle Russia. What a mistake that was for the Ukrainian leadership allowing such treachery to destroy themselves. Typically American utilizing others to get what they want without using up their own manpower. Sick!
Maybe Blinken and Nuland wanted and planned for as many Ukrainian deaths as possible, to satisfy their grandparents' ethnic grievances.
This might explain the bizarre sight of a Jewish president commanding an army with real Nazis in it. The Nazis were sent to go fight Russians and die. Their death is the plan. If they manage to kill some Russians too, Blinken and Nuland will be even happier.
"This may explain the bizarre sight of a Jewish president commanding an army with real Nazis."
This Jewish president was financed and "created" by a Jewish oligarch named Ihor Kolomoisky, the same one who formed and financed the infamous Nazi (Ukrainian) organization called AZOV, what a coincidence, isn't it ? In my country, Hungary, a far-right political party called "Jobbik" was created, all of whose presidents have been found to be of Jewish origin, yet they openly sympathize with National Socialism, isn't it strange ? One of the resigned leaders later turned up in Canada, where he applied for admission to the local Jewish community, isn't it strange ? Decades ago, the Hungarian press picked up an openly Nazi activist by the name of Albert Szabó, who was perfectly suited to show Hungary once again in the "cultured" (:)) West that there are Nazis in Hungary. Albert Szabó disappeared from the Hungarian political news after a while, but a few years later the news came that Albert Szabó applied to be admitted to one of the Jewish religious communities in Australia, isn't it strange ?
The Jews have no shame. They will second any organization to further their self-serving ends. Whether it be ISIS, Al Qaeda or Azov "nartsees." The end justifies the means as far as they are concerned. Just look at 911 and the US wars for Israel.
Blinken and Nuland/Nudelman are Zio-Nazis. The FJB Administration's Cabinet has a bunch. The Senate Majority Leader can be included. These creatures are Zionist Neocons and Neolibs. Neocons and Neolibs are Nazis. I call them Nazis because they have a Nazi mindset.
Another insightful analysis, Simplicus; thank you.
One quibble:
“Russia winning on the other hand would give the West a major reality check which would greatly weaken them and could lead to their backing off on the Taiwan issue, particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate.”
No matter how wrong and destructive they are, the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deep state are rarely held to account, and when they are, they are usually “rehabilitated” back to positions of influence and power shortly thereafter. They may submerge onto corporate boards and into academic think tanks or become mainstream news “consultants” for a time, but their heads probably won’t roll.
Russia holding the line and China wins, hasn’t go to war, will not and knows how to fight without ever firing one shot or lancing one drone. Stupid NATO and US fighting all the line and storming like a bull upon a red flag. Is there some vodka left?
I have tried to calculate Ukrainian casualties based on the number of amputations. I took US casualties during WW2, used the ratio of killed and injured and projected what Ukrainian losses would be based on the number of Ukrainian amputees (25,000). The number I got was 675,500 killed and 1,086,250 injured. https://twitter.com/croftyler/status/1708976748073820249
Obviously, military medicine would have improved in over 70 years, nevertheless, that would probably reduce the number of deaths by only a hundred thousand or so. The 500k figure of Ukrainians killed is probably quite realistic. The BBC and Mediazone confirm that 47k Russians have died, a sizeable number of that figure are Wagner convicts and soldiers from the Donbas Republics. https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats
Your calculations are, I fear, much closer to the reality than perhaps even you think.
We've touched on this in previous commentary, but it's worth a reiteration here.
Medicine and knowledge of how to treat even quite severe injuries HAS improved in the 80 years since WW2...BUT, you have to get the injured to HIGH level (major hospital) surgery/care within *1* hour (the so-called Golden Hour) of the injury occurring.
And this is where Ukraine is failing in a dismal fashion. They simply do not have the forward deployed medical resources to properly treat injured soldiers to even WW2 standards. At best they might be at WW1 levels, but there's a case to be made they are not even (American) Civil War standard....
This is probably a consequence of their "Tooth to Tail" ratio, which is generally, in an army in good order, around 10:1 Support:Fighters. Support being everything from food, ammo, fuel, medical, transport, etc. All these functions are being deprecated to field the largest possible number of combat troops.
The only people available to treat, transport and care for the injured within any reasonable timeframe are other combat troops, high level medical care for those with anything other than a "walking wounded" level of injury is likely too far away.
This is combat triage at it's most brutal.
In 25 years of (volunteer for me) rescue we triaged thus...
1. Nothing we can do, we can't slap them on the surgeons table right now. Too bad, so sad. 2. Walking wounded, we'll get to them when we can. 3. If we get them to help ASAP they have a chance.
In Ukraine forces only the walkers have a chance (and they'll either be amputees, or back under arms if they survive)
Can’t make verbs agree with singular or plural nouns either! But he spells whisky right…simp has gotta be Brit (or a staff, or AI). Just can’t get my arms around the workload. He says he has a day job. Either way, I don’t miss a word.😸.
He's been living around English-speaking folks for a long time, so he's lost most of his Russian. He doesn't chat in Russian with his parents or pals, and he hasn't used it since he got into this English-speaking scene. It could be because he got adopted or because his parents were good at English. The fact that his English is great but he never uses high school or sports related language means he must have joined the English-speaking crowd when he was quite young, but not so young as to fully adopt the same lifestyle as his peers.
I don't think he is Russian. I'm Russian and i don't see any Russian pattern in his way of thinking and worldview. He has a good understanding of Russian mentality, culture, history etc, but it's not on deep intuitive level, it's not a view from inside but from outside. He just have a lot of knowledge, good logical thinking and analysing skills. Maybe he has some Russian or Slavic roots.
"Whiskey (with an 'e') refers to grain spirits distilled in Ireland and the United States. Whisky (with no 'e') refers to Scottish, Canadian, or Japanese grain spirits."
…‘Everything since then has been a massive, unprecedented, NATO lend lease effort to resuscitate and revive their “Weekend at Bernies’” army.’ - Simplicius
But, we found out that, according to the results of this offensive, it became finally clear - the tactics and strategy of NATO work perfectly, unless, of course, there is no enemy.
If you want a laugh, go back and read Biden's public speeches from March 2022. Literally everyone was chuckling because they thought Russia would collapse within a matter of days, if not weeks. A NATO VICTORY WAS GUARANTEED, damnit! :P
great job to all shitlibs and bootlickers who ushered in yet another cash grab for the military industrial complex and another fiasco for the decrepit american empire. All that cash and weapons got siphoned off by corrupt nazis who will now turn those weapons on the Europeans. CIA should be over joyed since they love repurposing nazis into terrorists. And not a damn thing will change here in the US, where americans have 'favorite' politicians who keep screwing them over and they keep cheering them on. The US is a shithole country like no other.
It feels like I piggyback on Simplicius' genius for the third time, but, frankly, I just now finished my own "Ukraine: A Trillion-Dollar Goldmine of Death" essay that complements his work (it even argues with him a tiny bit.) I hope he'll forgive me for linking it here:
Russia had won the war by May of this year. The purpose of the Spring Offensive was to milk the cow dry. They had no chance at succeeding in any of their stated goals. It's been a 10+ to 1 slaughter since.
Fascinating read. It would seem those in charge have long known Ukraine could not possibly win, and yet despite peace overtures chose to just throw bodies at the lines. Then Western politicians boast that half a million dead Ukrainians was a cheap win for their geopolitical maneuvering. Perhaps we are getting a glimpse of what our "leaders" really feel about the rest of us, just pawns on a world board to sacrifice without remorse or regret. Astounding as much as it is disheartening.
It is no secret that the Empire views its own citizens as at most a resource to be exploited, and at worst as an unavoidable inconvenience.
US aid to Ukraine to date is over $3,800 for every Ukrainian man, woman and child, yet the citizens of East Palestine are denied so much as a hotel voucher.
The next event is the British inviting a casualty incident onto themselves, either a British ship being hit in the black sea or British regulars being hit on land, the gamble being that the US will not allow the UK to fight the Russians alone and will follow
The US is a captive, it is a vassal of Judea. Who can say what (((their))) intentions are...? (1933 Judea declared war on Germany. 2023 Judea declares war on Russia).
Thanks for the link for the Dmytro Komarov's documentary. Bookmarked to watch later. I watched the first 20min. Very interesting stuff. I'll repost it here:
I got to the part where they state that the Russian intelligence gathering operation failed due to corruption. That operation was meant to determine if Kharkov would defend itself fiercely or if it would welcome the Russians with open arms. Apparently some Russian pocketed the funds and just wrote a glowing report...
I am now certain that Ukraine was the most powerful country in Europe before the war. The numbers in armor, manpower and airdefense and artillery would be unmatched by neither France nor Germany, nor Britain. Ukraine was made even more formidable after new armies were built, at the expense of the collective NATO.
I'm truly impressed on how Russia has fared so far, especially given they were also far from perfect, but adapted very well.
They'd have no chance against Russia.
It seems that the west suffered from the same type of corruption, intelligence gathering faillures, by completely underestimating Russian capabilities and resolve.
So potentially they could have provided missiles, rockets, artillery, tanks and ammo, in higher numbers than UK or France?
I'd like to see their number. I know UK sucks with numbers of tanks and ammo, Germany is better there. But UK seems to have tons of missiles and AA systems to give away as does France.
The number of pensioners before the war is also known - about 10 million .
23 million of the population was a bait for the pro-Russian media to start spreading. The hidden message - 6 million young people - is enough for a long war.
500 thousand dead is unrealistic, that's 1,000 killed every day, plus 3,000 wounded.
You are way off, the population remaining under Ukie control is about 20 million with 57% of those being pensioners. With the collapse in the birth rates post 1990, the 18-30 population is very small. I did my own realistic analysis here:
Ukraine has probably only 600,000 18-30, 1.2 million 30-40 and another 1.2 million 40-50. You also have to take into account unfit to serve (much higher percentage in older age groups), and reserved occupations (someone has to run the economy). So probably 2.5 million 18-50 at best, with between 600,000 and 800,000 gone already (extremely realistic), and the Ukie loss rate increasing. Also, most of the previously trained and experienced NCO-level are gone which greatly reduces combat effectiveness. Another year and a half of these loss rates and Ukraine is finished.
Putting men over 50 in the front lines against the trained and experienced Russian. army that has overwhelming material superiority would be like sending lambs to the slaughter.
I don't know about your numbers. A potential mobilization pool of 2.5 million with up to 800,000 irrevocable losses already comes to a loss rate of 32 percent. That's a higher loss rate than any country experienced in WWI or WWII, longer and more brutal wars.
Even 600,000 is a little high. I suspect the mobilization pool is higher and the casualties somewhat lower.
"500 thousand dead is unrealistic, that's 1,000 killed every day, plus 3,000 wounded."
Wrong assumptions make for bad analysis.
There is little to no reason to believe that Ukraine is achieving the levels of medical care of even WW2 levels, much less Vietnam era US capabilities.
Among the many reasons: Ukraine doesn't control the air thus no air evac. Ukraine is disadvantaged in artillery, so even near-front line transport is dangerous and slow. And Ukraine is corrupt - Scott Ritter just noted that Ukrainian soldiers are going into battle with wads of money in their pockets because if they are wounded, the money means getting treated as opposed to getting put in the back of the triage line (and dying).
1000 killed with 1000 wounded because 500 extra died due to inadequate care - that's very possible.
American Civil War with Hilux's instead of horses would be credible.
In 25 years of (volunteer for me) rescue we triaged thus...
1. Nothing we can do, we can't slap them on the surgeons table right now. Too bad, so sad. 2. Walking wounded, we'll get to them when we can. 3. If we get them to help ASAP they have a chance.
The focus, on the rescue/first aid/first responder side was category 3, but here...
In Ukraine forces only the walkers have a chance (and they'll either be amputees, or back under arms if they survive)
I think the usual 1:3 killed to wounded is not pertinent in this conflict, for two reasons.
1. A lot of the wounded are not making it to life saving medical care, so the killed to wounded is much higher than it would be if the wounded could be evacuated.
2. A lot of the fighting is distance fighting - artillery, grenade launchers, mortars, etc., which causes more death and seriously wounded (who die if they do not receive immediate medical care)
Brilliant summation, how the U.S led Western Nato/G7 + South Korea, Australia, Japan and even my own sycophant New Zealand government can continue to defend this madness is incomprehensible.
These psychotic lunatics rely upon the group think, the herd instinct to shroud and provide the veneer they are all knowing when from similar past endeavours (Read Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan and literally every Continent except the Australian, these psychopaths have illegally waged their bloodlust)
Seemingly akin as to vampires they have an insatiable blood lust, getting drunk the greater the number to be sacrificed, oh how they salivated I recall, almost drunkenly pre the hostilities commenced by Russia, almost going into ecstasy, getting off in the modern parlance, orgasming it could be said as we listened to them jubilantly enunciate they’re chorus line, the dogma, the mantra, “however long it takes, for as long as it takes” such an epithet now so obscene, defying all humanity, the norms that for the rest of us, so correctly associate with way how things ought be, not this bunch of blood thirsty “rules based order” criminals.
I pray each day Russia under the guidance of Putin, will be blessed by God to destroy completely everything these cretins, these despots stand for and represent, they truly are a clear and present danger to us all, evil, none more exemplified than by the truly idiotic and brain dead, the devoid of common sense Gardener Josep Borrell, Ursula van der Leyer, the stuttering Jens tell more lies Stoltenberg, Charlie Michel, Adolf Scholz with 360 degrees and patent National idiot ( It used to be villages that had an idiot) Baerbock, and the lunatic Harbeck, the 3 of whom have willingly, dutifully fulfilled their Schwab Orders, destroying Germany and its people, whilst Macron, and the WEF plaything Meloni have not fared much better, however, hope springs eternal as the Pole Dancer Do Dah Do Dah Day Duda, has with his P.M ostensibly, jilted into reality by forthcoming elections had a change of heart for blindly embracing the drowning cross dressing NAZi pervert ( He who banned the use of the letter “Z”) and owner of more homes than he can count,, Elinsky, along with his bestie and Nazi hugger, JUSTIN Castro, moreover they are joined by the architects of this madness, by the truly lunatic fringe, the quartet from the U.S comprising, Blink and you miss Him, SOS Blinkin, his deputy at State, Jabber the Hutts daughter, Nuland, NSA gimp, Rake Sullivan and Octagenerian Joe always Falling or Lyin.
It is truly sick, like I said I pray daily for Russias victory over this truly reprobate group of evil doers for there is nothing, nada, zip, zero, not a skerrett of good or decency in any of them, for, by their own deeds and actions, their very words, they have made that so unequivocally clear….all of them, losers, purveyors of death, of lies, they are warmongers, murderers, criminals and charlatans all… no forgiveness, only accountability awaits.
Here's another option, a long-term one.
Russia wins. USA backs off China as domestic troubles grow. Immigration hate becomes regular violence. McDonald's get targeted by robbers until half of them are forced to close down. Mass shooter kills blue-eyed babies in hospital. Local terrorism incident by Nazi American with Ukrainian PTSD. Trump goes to prison before heart attack, or his heart attack creates Qanon v.03. Political assassination of a good-looking politician. Lab created super herpes virus released, dumb people too scared to masturbate, turn to fetanyl as population plummets. Military Industrial Complex compensates for loss in foreign sales by turning the USA into Palestine, a dystopia welcomed by the majority, the overweight Public who delivered themselves to the fear campaign that shitty McDonalds' burgers might go extinct.
I was thankful watching that slip-up on Sky News, Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko admitting Russia was winning. Saw it on Larry's page this morning. If there were integrity in MSM, that clip would've been syndicated.
Not only is Russia winning, like she said,woops, but the collective West is going to be russiified, red is the new black, praise God and Putin .
....and McDonald's ought to be illegal
It escapes my wildest imagination why McDonald's is some folk's favourite meal. Braai a butcher's patty , throw it on a roll with tomato and onion, and we've got something better. I see as much madness in McDonald's thinking as war furthering democracy. The USA is the perfect specimen for the history of the effect of marketing.
i recall liking mcdonalds as a teenager, but 40 years later i havent had one in 10 years. To be honest, the fries were the draw, and the ice cream, before they were permabroken
Soylent Green
In 1957, I was buying burgers and fries from one of the first McDonalds in America. I'd guess their quality has dropped 95% or so since then, and their value proposition even more.
That was back when we were lied to about animal fat being dangerous. Eat more corn syrup sweetened cereal. .
The Oreo McFlurry is the only good thing I had from them. I don't understand small fries. Please speak to me in my language :)
Not too many South Africans here, sorry :)
Globalisation is, well, global.
im pretty sure in the late 90s or early 90s they moved all the fries up a size, so what was regular (in the paper bag) became small, large became regular etc
Kids love it. I must confess to being partial to a triple cheeseburger once in a while.
BTW, I doubt there's much cash to steal from those places.
Apparently if you repent, you'll be forgiven :)
Soylent Green
The mind reasons "no," but the body overrules with its insatiable desire for these salty French Fries, for those of us who let the body be in charge. Like an addiction. Anyway, the McDonalds where I usually stop has been replaced by a Subway (meat and vegetable sandwiches), so all is good and nutritious now.
Without the sugar, refined wheat and toppings, Subway is better. But you'll have to call it NoWay :)
lol no one would ever go back if they made their own Big Mac Sauce - 1/4 cup each mayo, mustard, tomato sauce diced red onion n gerkin. Smash homemade mince patty on to a soft taco, place patty side pan down in fry pan, flip, put a slice of cheese on top, when that melts cover with Mc D sauce, fold in half and eat yum,. Hi all from paradise on earth, New Zealand, thank Simplicus for keeping this kiwi well informed, hope you enjoy the coffee
I talked to a bona fide French chef de cuisine, who commented that, some days you don't want an artisanal gourmet steakburger made from sustainable Wagyu beef or whatever, what you want is...a Big Mac.
"In March 2011, Cyril Ramaphosa (now President of South Africa) secured a 20-year agreement to run 145 McDonald’s restaurants in South Africa. Unlike a regular conventional franchisee, Ramaphosa owned all of McDonald’s assets, including owning or leasing property."
In 2016, he sold it to a company in United Arab Emirates.
Ramaphosa became a billionaire through shares given to him by large corporations. Here, they label being bought as black economic empowerment. I repeat my thought that the transition from Apartheid to the Rainbow Nation was a democracy marketing package and financial transaction arranged by the USA. Interference in our politics has never stopped which is why our 'democracy' is as fake as the USA's. McDonald's reminds me of that.
Ramaphosa is not clean at all just as he is a smooth talker who has fraudulently won the respect of many within the ANC and the rich black elites, much to the delight of his rich banker oligarchs backers.. Just as Julius and the DA would not be helpful to this country, Cereal also is like a worm inside of an apple...
I think its likely they all had the same foreign sponsors at one time or simultaneously.
Grew up when Mac had burger fries and shake and you got change from a dollar. Sign said hundreds of thousands sold. Not sure who the FDA protects now or then, what do they put in that stuff?
Statements from the MSM may propel a decreasing number of Westerners to obey the desired narrative. However those same 'truths' are highly motivational to the Russian people. They feel nato breathing down their neck. They hear what their kids have to say when they get leave. The Russian population acts like they are facing an existential threat.
Whereas in North America, more and more of us feel the greatest threat is from our own government. Led by a cabal of globalist that mostly seem to want dead people, lots of dead people.
Two ways to control an angry country, make it fight itself or give it a common enemy. The CIA is capable of the latter so its interesting that they're using the other option.
It must be a running joke for them, these numbskulls running frantically about fighting each other while we are the ones truly intent on their demise. Much of MSM can be deciphered just on seeing most media as Psychological Projection.
Another thing that's out of people's view: APPARENTLY, the FED (USA's central bank) has been running a deficit this entire year. The deficit of the central bank is the necessary and sufficient condition for hyperinflation.
The hyperinflation of the US dollar might have begun. If so, the "Great Reset" - of the financial system - has begun.
But I still need to verify the deficit and I'll also be looking for additional effects of early-stage hyperinflation before I actually commit myself to "USD hyperinflation" thesis.
Burgers are going to cost more.
There is a book with the title, "The Great Reckoning" that's written by two authors whose names escape me. The book is over twenty years old. The authors pointed it out succinctly years ago that the US financial system was bankrupt and rotten to the core and with time, the roof was going to fall in.. All that is happening around the dollar system is the biggest scam which too few in the world will ever be able to unravel or fathom... Compared to the experimental jabs, the dollar scam has killed (and still does), many people around the globe without them having an inkling about the venom that's built into the system..
Not sure about the Fed running a deficit, but they are underwater. They bought a ton of long maturity debt at rock bottom rates post 2008 through Covid, a lot of which is risky mortgage backed securities that they bought at face value. They're trying to unwind that right now, but I doubt they can do it successfully.
The Fed can't run a deficit outside of accounting trickery GAAP). The Fed and social security are the two largest holders of treasury debt. As interest rates rise the underlying value of the assets (treasuries) drop. If interest rates fails the value rises.
The whole fiat banking system is at risk because the banks have to hold treasuries. Think Failed SVB × 1,000,000.
Thankfully we will always have the Too Big To Fails: BOA, CitiBank and others.
She is also a huge Anglophile, studied there.
I'm not sure that the US will back down from China if Russia wins. It'll be a huge blow to their prestige, and therefore the US will be even more desperate for a conflict which they believe they can win, to prove the Ukraine loss was just a "fluke".
Now, I'm not saying they believe that they can win a war with China, but it's not implausible.
Afghanistan: I wonder why anyone including the Taliban can even think they would win a war here. The Country is run by different clans not one person in sole control.
I was providing my idiocracy version of the version.
I think they will, given the fact that the US military is not in its best shape. Cool heads will prevail in the end they way it happened with the sacking of the Speaker...
The US government has already made public multiple war games they simulated with China, and even the rosiest of them put the number of US dead troops above 10k in the first 2 weeks. Everyone in DC deep down knows we're a paper tiger at this point.
There is starting to be an orchestration campaign to reinstitute an active draft. Having lived through Vietnam and the Sixties, I can tell you that's not going to fly.
The US has always needed an enemy keeps people from having their 'eye on the ball!'
Hahaha, yeah, it's something like this.
The hegemon can never back off and so the US and its enablers in Europe and Australasia will be destroyed. Every poke at Russia and China simply brings that inevitable hour forward. It could all have been so different if the real soldiers hadn't been weeded out in the West as they would long ago have marched on their Capitol and Parliaments to arrest the WEF lackies plotting the West's downfall there.
You are likely correct.
All these deaths, a result of American planning to use Ukrainian men as pawns in a war of attrition to dismantle Russia. What a mistake that was for the Ukrainian leadership allowing such treachery to destroy themselves. Typically American utilizing others to get what they want without using up their own manpower. Sick!
Maybe Blinken and Nuland wanted and planned for as many Ukrainian deaths as possible, to satisfy their grandparents' ethnic grievances.
This might explain the bizarre sight of a Jewish president commanding an army with real Nazis in it. The Nazis were sent to go fight Russians and die. Their death is the plan. If they manage to kill some Russians too, Blinken and Nuland will be even happier.
"This may explain the bizarre sight of a Jewish president commanding an army with real Nazis."
This Jewish president was financed and "created" by a Jewish oligarch named Ihor Kolomoisky, the same one who formed and financed the infamous Nazi (Ukrainian) organization called AZOV, what a coincidence, isn't it ? In my country, Hungary, a far-right political party called "Jobbik" was created, all of whose presidents have been found to be of Jewish origin, yet they openly sympathize with National Socialism, isn't it strange ? One of the resigned leaders later turned up in Canada, where he applied for admission to the local Jewish community, isn't it strange ? Decades ago, the Hungarian press picked up an openly Nazi activist by the name of Albert Szabó, who was perfectly suited to show Hungary once again in the "cultured" (:)) West that there are Nazis in Hungary. Albert Szabó disappeared from the Hungarian political news after a while, but a few years later the news came that Albert Szabó applied to be admitted to one of the Jewish religious communities in Australia, isn't it strange ?
See my comment about Zio-Nazis.
The Jews have no shame. They will second any organization to further their self-serving ends. Whether it be ISIS, Al Qaeda or Azov "nartsees." The end justifies the means as far as they are concerned. Just look at 911 and the US wars for Israel.
Blinken and Nuland/Nudelman are Zio-Nazis. The FJB Administration's Cabinet has a bunch. The Senate Majority Leader can be included. These creatures are Zionist Neocons and Neolibs. Neocons and Neolibs are Nazis. I call them Nazis because they have a Nazi mindset.
Zely is a Zio-Nazi.
there is no such thing as Ukrainian Leadership, esp. after Maidan 2014, they simply turned into another Nazis.
Jews. Forget all your Jewish brainwashing about muh Nartsees. You are being played like a violin.
In my view, Ukraine doesn't have leadership more than she has paid-for stooges of the Americans to effect regime change in the RF...
The Ukrainian leadership will simply bunk off to their boltholes in London or Miami.
Do you actually believe they will be safe from retribution there?
Not a chance
I dunno, Ghani is alive and well. Saakashvili would be as well, if he hadn't tried to return to Georgia.
This is what the uniparty in the senate delivers. We must break the uniparty, the CIA, the FBI and the DOJ. Who can lead that cause?
Another insightful analysis, Simplicus; thank you.
One quibble:
“Russia winning on the other hand would give the West a major reality check which would greatly weaken them and could lead to their backing off on the Taiwan issue, particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate.”
No matter how wrong and destructive they are, the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deep state are rarely held to account, and when they are, they are usually “rehabilitated” back to positions of influence and power shortly thereafter. They may submerge onto corporate boards and into academic think tanks or become mainstream news “consultants” for a time, but their heads probably won’t roll.
Scolded in Public, given a million dollar company contract directly after.
Russia holding the line and China wins, hasn’t go to war, will not and knows how to fight without ever firing one shot or lancing one drone. Stupid NATO and US fighting all the line and storming like a bull upon a red flag. Is there some vodka left?
I have tried to calculate Ukrainian casualties based on the number of amputations. I took US casualties during WW2, used the ratio of killed and injured and projected what Ukrainian losses would be based on the number of Ukrainian amputees (25,000). The number I got was 675,500 killed and 1,086,250 injured. https://twitter.com/croftyler/status/1708976748073820249
Obviously, military medicine would have improved in over 70 years, nevertheless, that would probably reduce the number of deaths by only a hundred thousand or so. The 500k figure of Ukrainians killed is probably quite realistic. The BBC and Mediazone confirm that 47k Russians have died, a sizeable number of that figure are Wagner convicts and soldiers from the Donbas Republics. https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats
Your calculations are, I fear, much closer to the reality than perhaps even you think.
We've touched on this in previous commentary, but it's worth a reiteration here.
Medicine and knowledge of how to treat even quite severe injuries HAS improved in the 80 years since WW2...BUT, you have to get the injured to HIGH level (major hospital) surgery/care within *1* hour (the so-called Golden Hour) of the injury occurring.
And this is where Ukraine is failing in a dismal fashion. They simply do not have the forward deployed medical resources to properly treat injured soldiers to even WW2 standards. At best they might be at WW1 levels, but there's a case to be made they are not even (American) Civil War standard....
This is probably a consequence of their "Tooth to Tail" ratio, which is generally, in an army in good order, around 10:1 Support:Fighters. Support being everything from food, ammo, fuel, medical, transport, etc. All these functions are being deprecated to field the largest possible number of combat troops.
The only people available to treat, transport and care for the injured within any reasonable timeframe are other combat troops, high level medical care for those with anything other than a "walking wounded" level of injury is likely too far away.
This is combat triage at it's most brutal.
In 25 years of (volunteer for me) rescue we triaged thus...
1. Nothing we can do, we can't slap them on the surgeons table right now. Too bad, so sad. 2. Walking wounded, we'll get to them when we can. 3. If we get them to help ASAP they have a chance.
In Ukraine forces only the walkers have a chance (and they'll either be amputees, or back under arms if they survive)
Nit-picking, sorry... but it's "consensus", not "concensus".
Can’t make verbs agree with singular or plural nouns either! But he spells whisky right…simp has gotta be Brit (or a staff, or AI). Just can’t get my arms around the workload. He says he has a day job. Either way, I don’t miss a word.😸.
Russian, who live outside Russia. that's my take.
unlikely. he has made various minor mistakes re Russian in the past which a native speaker would not have made.
Honestly i keen to believe he's Amerikan with Slavic blood.
That's what I think as well.
He's good my friend. Stay safe.
He's been living around English-speaking folks for a long time, so he's lost most of his Russian. He doesn't chat in Russian with his parents or pals, and he hasn't used it since he got into this English-speaking scene. It could be because he got adopted or because his parents were good at English. The fact that his English is great but he never uses high school or sports related language means he must have joined the English-speaking crowd when he was quite young, but not so young as to fully adopt the same lifestyle as his peers.
I don't think he is Russian. I'm Russian and i don't see any Russian pattern in his way of thinking and worldview. He has a good understanding of Russian mentality, culture, history etc, but it's not on deep intuitive level, it's not a view from inside but from outside. He just have a lot of knowledge, good logical thinking and analysing skills. Maybe he has some Russian or Slavic roots.
good to see that view from real Russian. thanks a lot for clarifying.
"Whiskey (with an 'e') refers to grain spirits distilled in Ireland and the United States. Whisky (with no 'e') refers to Scottish, Canadian, or Japanese grain spirits."
i barely get time to read his posts and watch the videos on bitchute
…‘Everything since then has been a massive, unprecedented, NATO lend lease effort to resuscitate and revive their “Weekend at Bernies’” army.’ - Simplicius
That is such a perfect description.
But, we found out that, according to the results of this offensive, it became finally clear - the tactics and strategy of NATO work perfectly, unless, of course, there is no enemy.
If you want a laugh, go back and read Biden's public speeches from March 2022. Literally everyone was chuckling because they thought Russia would collapse within a matter of days, if not weeks. A NATO VICTORY WAS GUARANTEED, damnit! :P
Though the “righteous be bléssed” and richest the bolder,
though war be the altar where worships the older,
though liar who be loudest is favored who flatters
o’er teller of truths tiresome and untimely,
once peoples are poured out unplenished, unreplaced,
and Zaluzhni and Zelenski be unliving and scorned
and the glut of greed unguarded laid bare
then America take measure: neither might nor morals
nor mettle nor magic nor media enthralled
may argue the Empire you surrendered to Rus.
great job to all shitlibs and bootlickers who ushered in yet another cash grab for the military industrial complex and another fiasco for the decrepit american empire. All that cash and weapons got siphoned off by corrupt nazis who will now turn those weapons on the Europeans. CIA should be over joyed since they love repurposing nazis into terrorists. And not a damn thing will change here in the US, where americans have 'favorite' politicians who keep screwing them over and they keep cheering them on. The US is a shithole country like no other.
It feels like I piggyback on Simplicius' genius for the third time, but, frankly, I just now finished my own "Ukraine: A Trillion-Dollar Goldmine of Death" essay that complements his work (it even argues with him a tiny bit.) I hope he'll forgive me for linking it here:
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/ukraine-a-trillion-dollar-goldmine
And it is a great piece.
Russia had won the war by May of this year. The purpose of the Spring Offensive was to milk the cow dry. They had no chance at succeeding in any of their stated goals. It's been a 10+ to 1 slaughter since.
I'd say May of last year when the sanctions failed.
I said day one that Ukraine had zero chance. of military victory. Too small and too poor.
Fascinating read. It would seem those in charge have long known Ukraine could not possibly win, and yet despite peace overtures chose to just throw bodies at the lines. Then Western politicians boast that half a million dead Ukrainians was a cheap win for their geopolitical maneuvering. Perhaps we are getting a glimpse of what our "leaders" really feel about the rest of us, just pawns on a world board to sacrifice without remorse or regret. Astounding as much as it is disheartening.
It is no secret that the Empire views its own citizens as at most a resource to be exploited, and at worst as an unavoidable inconvenience.
US aid to Ukraine to date is over $3,800 for every Ukrainian man, woman and child, yet the citizens of East Palestine are denied so much as a hotel voucher.
The next event is the British inviting a casualty incident onto themselves, either a British ship being hit in the black sea or British regulars being hit on land, the gamble being that the US will not allow the UK to fight the Russians alone and will follow
A miscalculation by the Brits IMO.
I don't see the US going to war for any European country.
The US is a captive, it is a vassal of Judea. Who can say what (((their))) intentions are...? (1933 Judea declared war on Germany. 2023 Judea declares war on Russia).
Thanks for the link for the Dmytro Komarov's documentary. Bookmarked to watch later. I watched the first 20min. Very interesting stuff. I'll repost it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLVgEu7vzRo&t=5s
I got to the part where they state that the Russian intelligence gathering operation failed due to corruption. That operation was meant to determine if Kharkov would defend itself fiercely or if it would welcome the Russians with open arms. Apparently some Russian pocketed the funds and just wrote a glowing report...
Any truth to that, @Simplicius?
Ukrainian counterintelligence might have played a role.
I am now certain that Ukraine was the most powerful country in Europe before the war. The numbers in armor, manpower and airdefense and artillery would be unmatched by neither France nor Germany, nor Britain. Ukraine was made even more formidable after new armies were built, at the expense of the collective NATO.
I'm truly impressed on how Russia has fared so far, especially given they were also far from perfect, but adapted very well.
They'd have no chance against Russia.
It seems that the west suffered from the same type of corruption, intelligence gathering faillures, by completely underestimating Russian capabilities and resolve.
Depends on whether you consider Turkiye to be in Europe. Ukraine's army was not likely stronger than Turkiye's pre-SMO.
Is that so? I had no idea.
So potentially they could have provided missiles, rockets, artillery, tanks and ammo, in higher numbers than UK or France?
I'd like to see their number. I know UK sucks with numbers of tanks and ammo, Germany is better there. But UK seems to have tons of missiles and AA systems to give away as does France.
Compare Turkey numbers with UK, Germany, France etc or even Ukraine
https://armedforces.eu/turkey
https://armedforces.eu/germany
https://armedforces.eu/france
https://armedforces.eu/United_Kingdom
https://armedforces.eu/Ukraine
European forces - i.e. NATO minus US and Turkey - are a joke.
Russia is mostly culturally European.
The West is a vassal of the Jew World Order. Don't look for logic or reason here.
The obvious Ukrainian disinfo. The ratio of youth and old people does not correspond to the open pre-war data https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2021/
The number of pensioners before the war is also known - about 10 million .
23 million of the population was a bait for the pro-Russian media to start spreading. The hidden message - 6 million young people - is enough for a long war.
500 thousand dead is unrealistic, that's 1,000 killed every day, plus 3,000 wounded.
In responce to "A New leaked census document shows Ukraine currently at 23 million: "
Ah ok, got it
I'm confused. Your link shows 1M males between 15-19 and another million from 19 to 24. Where's the 6M?
Ah. That famous question. Where's the Six Million. LOL
Are you factoring in that young people will migrate at a much higher rate than the old?
You are way off, the population remaining under Ukie control is about 20 million with 57% of those being pensioners. With the collapse in the birth rates post 1990, the 18-30 population is very small. I did my own realistic analysis here:
https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/ukraine-a-country-of-old-and-damaged
Ukraine has probably only 600,000 18-30, 1.2 million 30-40 and another 1.2 million 40-50. You also have to take into account unfit to serve (much higher percentage in older age groups), and reserved occupations (someone has to run the economy). So probably 2.5 million 18-50 at best, with between 600,000 and 800,000 gone already (extremely realistic), and the Ukie loss rate increasing. Also, most of the previously trained and experienced NCO-level are gone which greatly reduces combat effectiveness. Another year and a half of these loss rates and Ukraine is finished.
Putting men over 50 in the front lines against the trained and experienced Russian. army that has overwhelming material superiority would be like sending lambs to the slaughter.
I don't know about your numbers. A potential mobilization pool of 2.5 million with up to 800,000 irrevocable losses already comes to a loss rate of 32 percent. That's a higher loss rate than any country experienced in WWI or WWII, longer and more brutal wars.
Even 600,000 is a little high. I suspect the mobilization pool is higher and the casualties somewhat lower.
Ukraine has an economy? How many able-bodied people does it take to cash western aid checks?
And of course sending pensioners to the front would be an unfunny joke. Neither the western nor the Ukrainian leadership care.
"500 thousand dead is unrealistic, that's 1,000 killed every day, plus 3,000 wounded."
Wrong assumptions make for bad analysis.
There is little to no reason to believe that Ukraine is achieving the levels of medical care of even WW2 levels, much less Vietnam era US capabilities.
Among the many reasons: Ukraine doesn't control the air thus no air evac. Ukraine is disadvantaged in artillery, so even near-front line transport is dangerous and slow. And Ukraine is corrupt - Scott Ritter just noted that Ukrainian soldiers are going into battle with wads of money in their pockets because if they are wounded, the money means getting treated as opposed to getting put in the back of the triage line (and dying).
1000 killed with 1000 wounded because 500 extra died due to inadequate care - that's very possible.
Isn't it easier to take cash off a dead person than a living one?
Or am I being too cynical?
Depends on who is trying to take the cash.
Also, a dead person is a single time hit; a living person is good for "as long as it takes".
WW2 levels of care seems optimistic to me...
American Civil War with Hilux's instead of horses would be credible.
In 25 years of (volunteer for me) rescue we triaged thus...
1. Nothing we can do, we can't slap them on the surgeons table right now. Too bad, so sad. 2. Walking wounded, we'll get to them when we can. 3. If we get them to help ASAP they have a chance.
The focus, on the rescue/first aid/first responder side was category 3, but here...
In Ukraine forces only the walkers have a chance (and they'll either be amputees, or back under arms if they survive)
I think the usual 1:3 killed to wounded is not pertinent in this conflict, for two reasons.
1. A lot of the wounded are not making it to life saving medical care, so the killed to wounded is much higher than it would be if the wounded could be evacuated.
2. A lot of the fighting is distance fighting - artillery, grenade launchers, mortars, etc., which causes more death and seriously wounded (who die if they do not receive immediate medical care)
Brilliant summation, how the U.S led Western Nato/G7 + South Korea, Australia, Japan and even my own sycophant New Zealand government can continue to defend this madness is incomprehensible.
These psychotic lunatics rely upon the group think, the herd instinct to shroud and provide the veneer they are all knowing when from similar past endeavours (Read Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan and literally every Continent except the Australian, these psychopaths have illegally waged their bloodlust)
Seemingly akin as to vampires they have an insatiable blood lust, getting drunk the greater the number to be sacrificed, oh how they salivated I recall, almost drunkenly pre the hostilities commenced by Russia, almost going into ecstasy, getting off in the modern parlance, orgasming it could be said as we listened to them jubilantly enunciate they’re chorus line, the dogma, the mantra, “however long it takes, for as long as it takes” such an epithet now so obscene, defying all humanity, the norms that for the rest of us, so correctly associate with way how things ought be, not this bunch of blood thirsty “rules based order” criminals.
I pray each day Russia under the guidance of Putin, will be blessed by God to destroy completely everything these cretins, these despots stand for and represent, they truly are a clear and present danger to us all, evil, none more exemplified than by the truly idiotic and brain dead, the devoid of common sense Gardener Josep Borrell, Ursula van der Leyer, the stuttering Jens tell more lies Stoltenberg, Charlie Michel, Adolf Scholz with 360 degrees and patent National idiot ( It used to be villages that had an idiot) Baerbock, and the lunatic Harbeck, the 3 of whom have willingly, dutifully fulfilled their Schwab Orders, destroying Germany and its people, whilst Macron, and the WEF plaything Meloni have not fared much better, however, hope springs eternal as the Pole Dancer Do Dah Do Dah Day Duda, has with his P.M ostensibly, jilted into reality by forthcoming elections had a change of heart for blindly embracing the drowning cross dressing NAZi pervert ( He who banned the use of the letter “Z”) and owner of more homes than he can count,, Elinsky, along with his bestie and Nazi hugger, JUSTIN Castro, moreover they are joined by the architects of this madness, by the truly lunatic fringe, the quartet from the U.S comprising, Blink and you miss Him, SOS Blinkin, his deputy at State, Jabber the Hutts daughter, Nuland, NSA gimp, Rake Sullivan and Octagenerian Joe always Falling or Lyin.
It is truly sick, like I said I pray daily for Russias victory over this truly reprobate group of evil doers for there is nothing, nada, zip, zero, not a skerrett of good or decency in any of them, for, by their own deeds and actions, their very words, they have made that so unequivocally clear….all of them, losers, purveyors of death, of lies, they are warmongers, murderers, criminals and charlatans all… no forgiveness, only accountability awaits.
Jews. Every. Single. Time. Not muh "Nartsees"
The US is a vassal state of the Jew World Order. Never forget it. Don't look for logic here, just greedy tribal self-interest and corruption.