SITREP 10/4/23: The Beginning of a Long Fall for Ukraine

As we head into fall and winter, the situation continues to worsen for Ukraine. The biggest developments have happened outside the locus of the conflict itself, but rather in the geopolitical scene where Ukraine is faced with a disastrous loss of financial support.

The U.S. House of Representatives has just removed its Speaker for the first time in history, primarily over his secret side deal with Biden to get funding to Ukraine. Some of the current options on the table for his replacement would spell disaster for Ukraine as they are all staunchly anti-funding Republicans.

On top of that, there’s been a concerted media campaign to really push the narrative that European weapons are completely running out:

The narrative is now coming fairly out into the open on both sides. In the West, top officials are actively speaking on how Putin plans to “fatigue” the West into giving up on Ukraine, while Russian officials like Medvedev are openly admitting to this fact, and stating that the West will give up on Ukraine soon.

The West has never looked weaker, not only in general, but specifically vis a vis their support for Ukraine. All of their recent attempts at portraying a unified front look increasingly hollow and desperate. The facade is literally falling apart before our very eyes, showcased most poignantly in this Sky News interview with Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, which was taken down soon after because of how inconvenient her “slip ups” were in admitting that Russia is winning the war:

But these latest things are just the outward manifestation of something that had privately started long ago. Ukraine’s support had already been slowly coming to a trickle:

And the fact is, this is not something you can turn around even if you wanted to. The way military support works is your logistics chains from many months ago are critical to the efforts of today. What would be essential to a hypothetical Ukrainian spring 2024 offensive would need to be heavy arms shipping now. The fact that there is nothing new of note being shipped means Ukraine’s near and medium term future look stark.

CNN and others had forecast this gloomy change weeks ago:

Now, in a desperate plea to reengage the public on the putative ‘threat’ that Russia poses in defeating Ukraine, the globalist scriptwriters have rolled out a new narrative: saving Ukraine means saving Taiwan from China. You can see this—as usual—in the orchestrated nature of the sudden, totally aligned messaging, which has clearly been sent down as ‘guidance’ from above.

Just in the past few days alone we have:

https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/victorious-ukraine-will-make-taiwan-safer-us-assistance-crucial-luke-coffey

Freeland: “Strongest message of deterrence we can send to China is a decisive Ukraine victory.”

Graham: “To stop funding Ukraine is a death sentence to Taiwan.”

This represents a fairly prosaic and predictable escalation in language. They have no other way to fearmonger the progressively disinterested populace other than bringing up the specter of some other newer, larger looming conflict as consequence of losing this one.

In reality, it’s probably likelier that Russia losing the war, rather than winning, would cause China to invade Taiwan. The reason being that Russia losing the war would greatly destabilize the world by giving a huge new power boost to the West. And given their precedent to always escalate to bring dominion and hegemony to their adversaries, the West will use the momentum of that victory to up the ante on their pressure against China—that perennial pressure to slowly chip away at and balkanize all competitors.

Russia winning on the other hand would give the West a major reality check which would greatly weaken them and could lead to their backing off on the Taiwan issue, particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate.

This will lower tensions and lead to China banking on the eventual mutual-political reunion with Taiwan, rather than a forced military take over. You see, China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan—just like Russia didn’t want to invade Ukraine. China made that clear many times that they are completely against it, and are seeking a natural reunification driven by consensus from both sides. However, if the West corners China by continuing to arm Taiwan (as they’ve begun doing now) and turning Taiwan into a similar dangerous thorn in China’s side, then China will have no choice but to “pull the bandaid off” and effect a sharp military take over.

Thus, I believe the calculus is as follows: Russia wins in Ukraine = the West is weakened and pressure on Taiwan defuses, lessening the chances of war and strengthening the chances of China pursuing peaceful reunification.

Russia loses in Ukraine = the West gets arrogant and uses their victory as proof they can weaken China the same way they did to Russia. This will lead China to feel they have no alternative than to act decisively.

So, what’s next?

There is a core group of the most hardened deepstate related European technocrats who are convening emergency meetings in an attempt to bridge some consensus towards military-industrial support. Joseph Borrell held what he called an “historic” meeting in Kiev with EU’s foreign ministers:

And Ukraine’s Kuleba claims arms manufacturers will likewise urgently convene to find ways to continue the charade:

“Representatives of 165 global defense companies will gather in Kyiv one of these days to discuss increasing production” — Foreign Minister Kuleba -> That is the right signal to Russia … if you freeze the conflict it’ll be much worse. According to the minister, it is beneficial for weapons manufacturers to cooperate with Ukraine, as they get the opportunity to test samples and receive feedback in the conditions of a real modern war.

The ‘European Defense Agency’ also signed a framework for the continuation of 155mm production for Ukraine.

The European Defence Agency has so far signed eight framework contracts with European industry for the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition. The signing of the latest five contracts took place at EDA headquarters in Brussels on 5 September, during a visit of the European Union’s Political and Security Committee (PSC) ambassadors.  

High Representative Josep Borrell, who is also Head of the European Defence Agency, said: “We are taking another step forward in our three-track ammunition initiative. Member States can now pass orders within eight framework contracts. Time is of essence. Putin does not show any sign of letting up in his aggression against the Ukrainian people. This is why our military support for Ukraine’s defence must continue. ” 

But much of the details are secret and there’s no telling if it will have any real participation from member states, as the framework seems merely a suggestive architecture to try to woo EU states into ordering more ammo.

In reality, news like this continues to pour out:

And now, it’s looking again like Germany has devastatingly chosen to reneg on the Taurus missile—part of the long ongoing game I described last time which saw U.S. reneging on ATACMS, causing Germany to get cold feet as a result.

At the same time, Ukraine is terrified that Russia is increasing its production and defense funding to historic levels:

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️Kiev has no plan in case of a decrease in aid from the United States, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Danilov said.

He also expressed concern that Western countries “have not yet come to an agreement on the future of Ukraine” and “are talking about help, not victory⚡️⚡️⚡️

…

Ukrainian telegram channel "Resident": The Biden administration is going to reduce funding for Ukraine three times, our enemy, on the contrary, is setting a record military budget.

"Putin is preparing for eternal war." Spending on the army in the Russian budget will increase to a record since USSR times, - The Moscow Times.

According to journalists, for the first time the army and factories of the military-industrial complex will receive more than $200 billion.

“Such military expenditures have never occurred in the entire modern history of Russia.”

Is it worth talking about the results on the battlefield next year, when the enemy will build a UAV production plant, produce thousands of new Lancets, and receive new MLRS from the DPRK.

It is not difficult to predict the results of such preparations for Ukraine, especially considering the failures on the international track.

The early results of these increases are already showing on the battlefield. Russia’s drone production is said to be skyrocketing to such levels that each month brings verified new highs of usages that are literally doubling and tripling the previous months:

Here’s a chart showing Russian drone (Lancets and FPVs) and UMPK glidebomb usage before the counteroffensive (blue) and afterwards (red):

FPV usage in particular is simply through the roof, and anyone who’s been watching footage on the usual channels can confirm this. Below you can see a Ukrainian account lamenting how unsustainable the new Russian onslaught is to the Ukrainian AD:

In fact Russia’s manufacturing PMI is now the highest in the world partly owing to the mass ramp up in military production:

But there’s more and more proof that Russia’s new ‘Volnoreza’ anti-drone EW systems are being used on real tanks on the frontline:

Video here.

As you can see from the above pic, the units are magnetized and can be stuck on any part of the tank to work. So Russia is becoming more immune to drones while its own offensive drone powers are exploding meteorically.

From a new WaPo piece:

Confessions of the Washington Post, based on the stories of a Ukrainian officer: “Russia is winning the war in Ukraine in the fight against drones.”

Countermeasures against Ukrainian UAVs are high: intensive electronic warfare and a developed air defense network.

Ukrainian air defense is constantly suppressed and becomes the target of operations to suppress it.

As a result, Russian UAVs are increasing their pressure and Ukraine's chances of success are rapidly decreasing.

Business Insider writes that Ukrainian assets can’t go longer than 10 minutes without being struck, a new riff on the old famous revelation that Ukrainian soldiers’ life expectancy on the Bakhmut frontline being measured in moments:

"Today, a column of tanks or a column of advancing troops can be discovered in three to five minutes and hit in another three minutes," Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy commander of Ukraine's HUR military-intelligence service, told The Wall Street Journal.

Even a quoted American veteran had to admit that the old days of advancing for the U.S. army are over with:

"The days of massed armored assaults, taking many kilometers of ground at a time, like we did in 2003 in Iraq — that stuff is gone because the drones have become so effective now," Bradley Crawford, a retired US Army sergeant who's an Iraq war veteran, told the newspaper.

It’s why Ukraine is not only now dangerously low on mainline heavy armor, but even SBU head Budanov has admitted that current and future assaults will continue to be carried out on foot, indirectly corroborating our reports that Ukraine now conducts primarily “meat assaults” with no mobile armor:

Losses continue to pile on catastrophically for the AFU. Each day brings some new revelation of their real ongoing losses, while news from the Russian front confirms the reverse. For instance, frontline correspondent Khariullin who was embedded with one of the brigades reports that Russia’s losses are extremely light compared to the enemy. It’s a long but very interesting direct, first hand perspective, which also happens to prognosticate what the future entails for Ukraine:

Voenkor Marat Khariullin

I, for example, know the exact figures of our losses in the last three or four weeks in my native First Slavic Brigade, but unfortunately, because of military censorship, I have no right to voice them. But again it can be done indirectly. Let me remind you that in early September, fresh forces of very well-trained marines from the 36th brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces struck the positions of Slavyanka. They tried for a week to chew through our positions from different directions.

As a result, having lost more than a company, the Ukrainians were forced to withdraw from this direction. But our brigade went forward without any interruption and for the third week has been chewing off one enemy stronghold after another. And all this with its own forces, without the support of other units, except for regular ones. And is still doing it to this day.

And exactly the same thing is happening, for example, on the right facet of the defense of Bakhmut, where in the area of Berkhovka our troops suddenly went on the offensive yesterday and entered the very important village of Orekhovo-Vasilievka.

Just like that, without concentrating resources and forces, without attracting additional units - yesterday the unit was sitting in defense, and today it suddenly went on the offensive. This just shows that our army is in very good shape and, despite the constant attacks of the enemy, it suffers such insignificant losses that it can calmly move from defense to attack.

In other words, our troops have been showing remarkable stability for the past month. And most importantly, our military has found a certain formula for conducting combat operations that allows them to destroy the enemy at a rate of 500,000 people per year, while suffering minimal losses.

There are two variables in this formula, sort of progressive coefficients. The first of them is growing all the time - it is our industry, which is gaining momentum and is successfully and steadily increasing the production of ammunition and new equipment. In the same coefficient sits the general state of our economy, which is feeling better and better. Significantly better than it was before the war started.

And the second coefficient is negative. It includes the systematic destruction of Ukraine's industry, including our ever-increasing strikes. As well as the ever-decreasing support for the Ukrainians by Western countries, and the generally deteriorating economies of both Ukraine and the West.

Applying these two coefficients, we get a forecast, according to which our losses in case of Ukraine's continuation will steadily grow, and ours, at least, will remain at the same level, but in the long term should become even lower.

And here we can only wait for the enemy's losses to become so high that he will simply no longer be able to resist.

The conclusion from all of this is very simple: if we take only the situation on the battlefield, we actually have nowhere to hurry. But, of course, there is still politics - and it may dictate a different logic of events.

And here we can only hope for reasonableness of our country's leadership. And once again thank God that such a great strategist as Vladimir Putin is still at the helm of the state.

A big Amen to all of us.

And I have only to add that tomorrow there will be a big frontline report. Live in VK and then in print in TG. As they say at the front - no goodbyes, see you later!

Another few points to update our ongoing thumb on the pulse of the attrition warfare. Lost Armour happened to be charting the verified posthumous rewards of the AFU:

As can be seen, there was a large jump since the start of the offensive in June, and it has continued to skyrocket in September.

Now a new report has been making the rounds which gives another eye-opening bit of insight as to possible AFU losses:

💥💥💥According to the Dnipropetrovsk funeral bureau, at least 22,000 people who died on the frontline have been buried in the city over a year and a half. (There are 20 such regions in Ukraine)

Reports from at least 20 Ukrainian regions confirm that the number of confirmed dead is at least 450,000-500,000 servicemen.

And those whose deaths are not documented by doctors and are not counted as military losses are listed as missing.

Those who died on the home front are usually not included in the lists of combat losses.

Thus, the irrecoverable losses of the Ukrainian army are estimated at 700,000-800,000 people. And, taking into account deserters and simians, they are approaching one million💥💥💥

And this follows a new Rybar estimate of AFU KIA released which appears to roughly match those numbers:

Interestingly, there continue to be sly oblong measures of getting an idea for AFU’s losses. Official figures are never shown but we can sometimes glean things from ancillary or corresponding statistics. For instance a Ukrainian minister reportedly announced that Ukraine previously had 2.7 million total people with disabilities, and throughout the course of the war, that number has gone up to 3M:

The number of people with disabilities in Ukraine has increased by 300 thousand in a year and a half

This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovich.

" There are 3 million people with disabilities in Ukraine. There were 2.7 million. In a year and a half, we see an increase of about 300 thousand ."

Correlation is not necessarily causality, but this would seem to suggest that as many as 300,000 have been disabled in the war.

Giant new military cemeteries continue to go up around the country:

Lastly, in the final—and perhaps most foreboding—bit of statistical analysis, we have new data that appears to show Ukraine’s current population has dropped to even lower than some of the worst predictions. Recall that Ukraine started off with nearly 50 million people at its peak. Some have suggested they still retain as much as 35-40M. A New leaked census document shows Ukraine currently at 23 million:

Just weeks ago, Medvedev had released a statement that pro-Ukrainians ridiculed and laughed at, where he stated that Ukraine is actually currently below 20 million:

Dmitry Medvedev predicts the collapse of Ukraine:

“The population on the territory controlled by Kiev is 19.7 million people, outside the country - already 17.9 million. In fact, half of 37 million in 2022 and about 40% of the population at the beginning of the 21st century"

Such a vector of development is clearly visible, since only about half of the population remains on the territory of the country, said the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia.

If these findings are even remotely true, then the Ukrainian state faces true catastrophe in the not so distant future, as Medvedev correctly foresees. MoonofAlabama also covered this in greater detail, so if you want to see an even more granular breakdown with charts, etc., you can check that article out.

So, with everything seemingly collapsing for Ukraine in such a way, what does the future hold?

Firstly, Zelensky right now is operating under the principle of the movie Speed with Keanu Reeves, for those that have seen it. A speed-governed bomb on a bus requires that the bus never stops or it explodes. Zelensky knows if he allows the armed forces to take even the slightest reprieve, it will be perceived as an acknowledgment of defeat, and a preliminary to wrapping up hostilities.

Thus, he’s intent on continuing no matter what, no matter how many lives it’s costing. Thus, despite all of the above, there continues to be news of new brigades being formed in the west of the country:

On the formation of new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Five separate mechanized brigades are planned to be formed by the end of October. And four infantry formations, judging by the interceptions, are almost ready, and soon we will see them on the battlefield. And this is without taking into account the 5th tank brigade of the 10th AK, which is expected to be commissioned by the end of the year.

It is interesting what the Ukrainian command focuses on when creating new units.Infantry brigades, taking into account the favorite tactics of the "meat" assault, will be equipped only with light armored vehicles and will act as consumables to replace the depleted forces of the 9 and 10 AK.

They should overwhelm the numbers and break into the defense, creating favorable conditions for the introduction of mechanized groups into battle, and five new brigades will probably be taken into account in the enemy's plan.The forced transfer of equipment from Germany plays with new colors in connection with this information.(Rybar)

As you can see, these will mostly be very light brigades with very little heavy armor, and will be used as meat-troops to just charge Russian defenses on foot. The AFU’s new tactic is to utilize the newly formed conscripts and untrained mobilized to clear the way by charging straight through Russian defenses while the experienced ‘elite’ brigades are held in the rear. Once the meat-assault has overwhelmed or at least occupied or distracted Russian defenses, then the more valuable elite troops are sent forward. In some ways it’s the equivalent of using meat-troops as sacrificial diversions to open up defenses in a recon-by-fire, allowing the experienced units to begin working on the now revealed Russian positions. Of course, for what it’s worth, it’s a smart strategy, brutal as it may be.

To feed more meat into the grinder for the renewal of these new brigades, Ukraine is now mobilizing more and more women and raising the conscription age:

The bill no. 10084, aimed at eliminating age limits, was registered in parliament. In other words, conscript the elderly, over 60 years of age, into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. I want to raise the military age for enlisted men from 60 to 65, and for senior military leaders from 65 to 70, writes Mriya.

In an article that’s shocked the internet, former UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace openly calls for Ukraine to embrace a WW2 style attitude and begin mobilizing much younger meat…it’s almost too unbelievable to be real:

“Zelensky, I understand your desire to preserve your young people…but it’s time to mobilize them” is what he’s saying. It really is down to the last Ukrainian for these bloodthirsty Western psychopaths. And for what? What is it all for? Wallace reveals in the article—as bland WEF talking point—it’s to preserve the much-loved “rules-based order.”

Lastly, there have been major transfers of gear and troops from the failed Zaporozhye front to west bank Kherson, and it appears Ukraine may again begin renewing attempts to cross the Dnieper to potentially seize the ZNPP nuke plant as a last ditch resort. Russian troops on the front say this will be absolutely suicidal, so perhaps there’s chance it’s another big diversion of some sort.

Secondly, there have been transfers to Bakhmut as Zelensky views the potential recapture of Bakhmut as one palatable consolation victory, that would serve as an acceptable Tier B objective after the failed Tokmak/Melitopol push.

Thus, it’s expected that AFU may concentrate forces on the lower Bakhmut line where they’ve had some success near Klescheyevka. However, not only have Russian forces have likewise had success in north Bakhmut around the Orekhovo-Vasilevka region, gaining territory this past week there, but if it’s true that Wagner is headed back to Bakhmut region then it would spell major problems for any AFU fantasies there.

***

But what does Russia plan to do in light of all this?

Firstly, there continues to be rumors that a newly formed Russian 25th CAA (Combined Arms Army) has been sent toward Kupyansk and that something big will start in that theater. This is aided by the fact that Russia has launched an emphatic campaign of destroying AFU’s bridges and crossings in that region over the past few weeks alone.

Russian Aerospace Forces destroy bridges across the Oskol River at the front near Kupyansk
The pilots launched a series of attacks with high-precision X-38 air-to-surface missiles on three road bridges through which the enemy supplies its group of troops on the left bank of the Oskol River near the border of the Kharkov region and Donbass.
➤ Video No. 1 ( 49.70989, 37.61825 );
➤ Video No. 2 ( 49.70980, 37.62271 );
➤ Video No. 3 ( 49.66381, 37.62475 );
➤ Video No. 4 ( 49.52703, 37.69177 ).

Subsequent to the above, the AFU has pontooned some of the crossings that were hit and Russia has now been hitting those pontoons over the past few days as well.

Remy Lind on TG: "Officials are now talking about an “offensive”. If I'm not mistaken, for the first time in a very long time. Yes, it is obvious that the Russian armed forces will soon launch offensive actions in one or more directions. Along with the impending return of PMC Wagner to the front. As of today, many of Wagner's attack units have already returned near the LBS and are waiting for instructions. In addition, the units from Kupyansk down to Kremmenaya were reinforced. Dozens of new tanks, helicopters and additional new fully trained units were sent in this direction. The new PMC attack detachments of former Wagner fighters have recently been working in the direction of Avdeevka. Exactly the same as in the Bakhmut area. In addition, airborne units increasingly went into offensive operations in the Zaporozhye direction. There are exciting weeks and months ahead. I'm really excited whether an offensive will actually be launched in the winter. At the moment there are many signs that this is the case. We will see."

The other seeming conjunction with these hypothetical developments is the big announcement that Wagner has finally begun pouring back into the conflict in spurts. It’s been a very complicated mess to untangle, as there appears to still be great confusion and disagreement on a lot of the practical details, with commander Lotus for instance refuting the Russian MOD’s own statements on who exactly was going where.

But for anyone who’s interested, the general gist we can piece together is as follows:

Wagner is breaking up into at least 3 separate units, one in Belarus theater, Ukraine, and Africa. The ones going to Africa appear to be under the command of Lotos (Lotus), aka Anton Yelizarev of whom I’ve written about before, who was one of Prigozhin’s right hand men and commanders of the Soledar/Bakhmut theater.

He and his segment of the force appear to not have signed contracts with the MOD and will continue operating semi-independently, although there is word that three large units of Africa-corps Wagner are flying back to the SMO.

The Wagner returning to Ukraine will operate under Andrey Troshev, callsign Sedoy aka ‘Graybeard’, who is also a previous high ranking GRU officer like Lotos, but who is more amenable and loyal to the MOD. The issue is, there are still disagreements of whether these Wagners will sign contracts and the current rumor claims that they will continue to operate in their own unit, still bearing the Wagner name, at least in part.

However the larger news is that Prigozhin’s son, Pavel Prigozhin is allegedly taking charge of Wagner—presumably more in the “managerial” role, dealing with finances and ideological directions, as his father before him, while Troshev remains the overall battlefield commander.

Wagner's Private military company. Pavel Prigozhin, according to the will of Prigozhin the elder, is designated the main heir to the entire empire of his father. The choice was obvious, since it was the son who was most immersed in his father's affairs. Including in the operation in Ukraine. According to sources, Pavel is negotiating the return of "Wagnerites" to the war zone in Ukraine, having occupied one of the most difficult areas.
Negotiations are underway with Rosgvardiya, under whose guarantees, without signing contracts, part of the company's personnel can enter as part of participation in military operations in Ukraine.

Separately, there are many other Wagners that reportedly joined Redoubt, a PMC controlled by the MOD. Additionally, some have joined other units, which you can see in a video from days ago. Interestingly, the soldier wears a patch with the Wagner insignia but not the Wagner name. Instead of the usual patch which says PMC Wagner, this one says “Favorite Music Collective”, which seems to suggest that the MOD is OK with using the symbol but not the official name.

There are also ongoing negotiations to somehow attach Wagner to the Russian national guard, or Rosgvardia units. Presumably the point is to keep Wagner as far away from having to operate from within the army “proper” because there remains too much bad blood between the soldiers of each.

🪖 Source: Head of the Russian Guard Zolotov is dealing with the issue of joining the fighters of the Wagner group

According to a source familiar with the situation, the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov, began to consider the issue of joining the “musicians” from the Wagner group to the composition of the military structure he supervises.

Negotiations are ongoing, and Zolotov’s decision will preserve the combat effectiveness of Wagner personnel and the merits of the fighters. For this purpose, the creation of a separate combat unit within the Russian Guard is being considered. It is reported that the head of the Russian Guard is also going to retain the symbols and name “Wagner”.

▪️ If this issue is resolved, then the experience of the “musicians” will be very useful in a further special operation. Now the country’s task is not to scatter its combat potential, but to unite in order to win.

…

The council of PMC commanders and "Lotus" has reached a fundamental agreement with the leadership of the Russian National Guard: before the New Year, both individual and group contracts must be signed with the Company's fighters. Group contracts are given higher priority in terms of status, ensuring that the PMC does not get fragmented. Flags and insignia can be preserved.

The financial terms are more or less the same, whether in the Volunteer Assault Corps or the Russian National Guard. However, by choosing between Troshev and the familiar commanders, a significant portion of the Company remains in the old ranks.

Where exactly the PMC will be relocated to is still unclear (the Volunteer Assault Corps is located near Artyomovsk, as Rybar already mentioned, but it's unlikely they will be moved there too).

But it's already clear that this is part of Russia's plans for the autumn-winter campaign in Ukraine.

…

🇷🇺🏴⚔️🇺🇦 "Wagner" PMC is returning to the SMO Zone under Rosgvardiya Command

Last week, @Rybar reported about the return of the PMC "Wagner" to Ukraine. Initially, it was only about the "Volunteer Assault Corps," supervised by Evkurov and Troshev. However, today, three assault units from Africa are flying into the SMO zone, including some of the core "Wagner" forces.

Either way, with Wagner reportedly steaming back in, rumors abound that Wagner is being sent to ‘hot spots’ where new pushes will occur. One is Bakhmut, in order to retake some of the territory lost to the AFU’s counteroffensive. Another idea is that they may go to Avdeevka and finally begin a fall-winter offensive there which would close the ‘cauldron’ that now mostly surrounds Avdeevka.

But the most promising direction of them, of course, is the group in the Russian Guard under the leadership of Pavel Prigozhin. First of all, due to the possibility of own financing, especially if it is possible to obtain a debt from the Ministry of Defense (the Russian Ministry of Defense owes "Konkord" at least 75-80 billion rubles). It was around lobbying/extorting this money that a new alliance between Pavel Prigozhin and Zolotov was formed.

If he succeeds in Avdeevka, on the stage of the Northern Military District, under the spotlights of history, Pavel Prigozhin will have the opportunity to revive, master and convert into the future all the glory of both the PMC itself and his name, that is, to start history anew, starting the promising project of the PMC "Wagner" 2.0 .

Others believe Wagner will be activated from the north, into the Kharkov region, to aid the new 25th CAA push from the Kupyansk direction.

We’ve discussed this possibility before, but now it seems to be really on the verge of potentially happening.

The other biggest news in this regard concerns Russia’s ultimate objectives. Once more we received some optimistic reassurance on that account:

From large Ukrainian"Resident"channel:

MI6 transmitted intelligence to the Ukrainian Office of the President and the General Staff that the Kremlin has prepared a plan to capture 5 regions of Ukraine if the war continues into 2024. For these purposes, reserves are being accumulated on the borders with Ukraine and new brigades are being formed. British intelligence believes the Russian army could employ a million men in a new offensive campaign.

In support of that, Russian Duma Deputy Speaker Pyotr Tolstoy confirmed that Russia intends to retake Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov:

Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Pyotr Tolstoy on the return of historical lands to Russia: This process was started by civilians of two cities - Donetsk and Lugansk. Even then there was no turning back - it became clear that these lands must return to their historical homeland. But Russia must return the rest of its lands: Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov regions - all the lands where our Russian people live, who were betrayed and abandoned 30 years ago, having invented an independent Ukraine, not caring about the interests of the inhabitants of these regions. Better late than never, but we'll fix it.

And Medvedev now echoed this as well:

https://www.rt.com/russia/583831-medvedev-ukraine-donetsk-kherson/

Moscow will add more Ukrainian regions to its territory, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned on the first anniversary of the country’s unification with the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

“Victory will be ours. And there will be more new regions within Russia,” the former president wrote.

At this point it’s difficult to argue that Russia will not be going after more regions—almost every top deputy, ex-general, official, etc., has voiced this sentiment.

Recall this commercial—amongst others—recently released, and seemingly hinting at a return of Odessa.

I had previously posted how another Russian Duma chairman, Vyacheslav Volodin, stated that Ukraine’s only option is total unconditional surrender or it will face extinction as a state:

Taken together these things appear to confirm more and more that Russia is serious about maximal objectives in the conflict. And now that the cracks in Western ‘solidarity’ are beginning to turn into giant crumbling ruptures there’s a possibility this process can speed up exponentially.

Not that we need statements to confirm something so self-evident, but everyone from Zelensky and Chuck Schumer to other key Western officials have openly stated that if Western arms supplies to Ukraine stop, the AFU will completely collapse in short order.

Just yesterday, in a White House press conference, John Kirby characterized most of the American arms shipments to Ukraine as “hand to mouth”, saying that Ukraine is desperately using the materiel/munitions pretty much right off the production line. A complete cessation of shipments could mean a total surrender from the AFU within weeks.

Right now everything hinges on what happens next with the U.S. congressional deadlock. Trump has already been nominated to the speakership, which would turn things on their head. Other ‘nominee’ frontrunners are all people not amenable to funding Ukraine.

If funding truly collapses, and Russia ups the pressure during the winter, with a high intensity strike campaign on Ukraine’s infrastructure, then I don’t see how Ukraine even makes it past spring 2024. Even heavily pro-Ukrainian observers are starting to see the writing on the wall, like this one, who wrote a Twitter thread describing how hopeless the situation now seems:

I've been wanting to say this for a while, but now it looks the writing is on the wall. I believe that Ukraine is on the verge of LOSING THIS WAR. (A thread)

Russia is: -Bolstering military spending and weapons production despite sanctions -Improving technology rapidly (Deadlier Lancets, aviation, and glide bombs) -Bolstering already complex defense lines in the south -New railway line to significantly reduce logistical problems

Ukraine is: -Losing popular support abroad (Slovakian election, drama with Poland, US cuts aid) -Keeps launching disastrous attacks with unsustainable losses in equipment, only to result in no reward -Counteroffensive at a halt -Shortage of manpower with no easy fix

It doesn't matter that Russia failed to take Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv. The very fact that Russia got away with doing a 20th century style land grab and emerged stronger than before is a ALREADY WIN FOR RUSSIA.

So what is there to do about this? My advice to pro-Ukraine people is this: Don't be depressed about something you cannot control. Stop engaging with people you hate on the internet. Instead, improve your own life, like going to the gym. Gym is the best copium, and it will help.

I remain pro-Ukraine, and this is still all speculation. However, it seems increasingly likely that we are nearing the end of the conflict, with Ukraine unable to recover its lost territories. I hope I'm wrong about all this, but I have little to no hope left.

That being said, though Westerners and Ukrainians are starting to admit Ukraine can’t win, they’re still clinging to the face-saving cope that Russia can only achieve a freezing of the conflict at best. I think they’re going to be in for a very rude awakening. Russia is only just beginning to ramp up its industries and has not even attempted or begun any major offensive maneuvers yet.

That being said, as a final caveat, I don’t think Russia is in a hurry or needs to launch massive offensives even by spring of 2024. As Kirby just said, “Time is not our friend”—the West is admitting that time favors Russia. I had previously stated that if Ukraine chooses to somehow cling on to the last man, Russia could choose to continue the current pace of attritional warfare well throughout 2024 and into 2025 until Ukraine is too battered to continue even defending. But it will all depend on whether allies find enough resolve to sustain Ukraine in at least a ‘moderate’ level, giving them just enough to defend themselves, or whether solidarity completely collapses and they pull the plug entirely on Ukrainian support.

In support of the above, Shoigu recently stated that Russia’s military plans foresee the total completion of military objectives—and thus the end of the SMO—by 2025:

Barring total support collapse, I fully agree with this. If the West hangs on and continues a trickle of support, Russia will likely play it cautiously and attrition Ukraine until 2025 where they will finally collapse. If the West’s support vanishes earlier, then it can happen much faster.

For now, Ukraine is anticipating the beginning of a long season of infrastructural attacks.

Ukraine has begun stockpiling transformers out of country, likely in Poland and other friendly states, to have them on call to repair incoming damage to power facilities. However air defense seems more depleted than ever, with Patriots never being heard from again after they were struck by Kinzhals, so it remains to be seen how much Ukraine can protect any of their key facilities. One thing’s for certain, Russia has not used that many missiles lately—relying more on Geran drones—and thus has likely stockpiled a huge amount for the fall-winter period.

One must recall that with winter, all the forestry and vegetation loses its greenery and gets defoliated, exposing Ukrainian positions to massive Russian fire, which will create a nightmare for dug-in defensive positions. Particularly now that Russia is drowning in drone production, they will be hitting everything that moves or breathes in every forest plantation and windbreak landing strip.

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An example of the type of losses the AFU was taking days ago in their light armor assaults on Verbove:

And near Artyomovsk/Bakhmut:

Here’s one tally of AFU losses from the period of Sept. 2 to Sept. 29:

Russia has been using new drones with extremely impressive thermal optics to help spot for Iskander strikes lately, presumably Orion/Inokhodet UCAVs:

Major strikes have been hitting Ukraine’s rear. If you’ve got your ear to the ground you’ll see a notable uptick in Ukrainian reports on mass deaths from command and deployment points being hit.

On the subject of attacks, this interesting Ukrainian documentary appeared which highlighted just how massive Russia’s opening shock and awe salvo at the start of the SMO was. Recall how many people doubted that Russia ‘destroyed’ much of Ukraine’s military infrastructure. Yet over time we learned through confirmation from UA itself that Russia destroyed 90% of Ukraine’s air defense:

90% of all their drones:

90% of their airports at the start of the conflict:

And over 50% of their military gear as of last summer, when this statement was made:

Which was further corroborated by Arestovich himself when he said that Russia had almost “entirely” destroyed their arms industry.

So the latest is just confirmation, which you can watch in its entirety here:

However, the interesting bit is here:

And they describe how a Soviet bunker meant to withstand nukes was annihilated by unknown Russian missiles with such force that “there was blood all over the walls and the victims’ eyeballs flew out of their heads”:

And here where they say how 90% of their AD was destroyed literally on the first day:

Sticking with the 90% theme, recall that here I previously proved how 90% of the Poltava region’s mobilized were destroyed, as per their own commissariat, which can be extrapolated out.

Put them all together, and it’s clear that this is not an exaggeration or hyperbole: Russia literally and verifiably, as per the AFU leadership itself, destroyed upwards of 90% of the entire Ukrainian military industrial complex in the first part of the war. Everything since then has been a massive, unprecedented, NATO lend lease effort to resuscitate and revive their “Weekend at Bernies’” army.

Old video but somewhat relevant (the money’s even more now):

How many entire armies does Russia have to destroy for some people to understand what a colossal effort it’s been, and how many military history books will be written about this achievement?

In light of all the offensive talk, I leave you with this final thought-provoker from Slavyangrad:

On Reserves and the End of Schrödinger's Offensive.

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"The greatest danger comes at the moment of victory."

~Napoleon Bonaparte

"But we should never have so many forces in the front line that we have none in reserve. That would be a very great error which would lead to defeat, should the enemy be in the least prepared for an encirclement."

~Carl Clausewitz

A few fundamentals of warfare which we know today.

-The U.S. Army conducted a study in which multiple artillery batteries ran training exercises for twenty days straight, with varying degrees of sleep. One battery would get seven hours a night, one six, one five, and one four.

The four hour battery, after twenty days of operations, had a firing efficiency degraded by 98%.

-After intense stress (combat), soldiers suffer a backlash from the parasympathetic nervous system. They require deep sleep, and can often fall asleep to such a degree that they can sleep through artillery fire. At this point, they are no longer asleep so much as comatose.

-Humans beings can sustain continual combat for no more than 30 days before performance begins to severely degrade. The average soldier's performance in combat without recuperation peaks at 20 days, begins to fall off, and then at 30 days dives off a cliff.

-It is standard practice in modern militaries today for Officers to command troops to consolidate positions after taking them. This is not only good warfare, but designed to keep troops moving and working immediately after victory, to prevent the above physiological backlash from taking place immediately, until reserves can move up to take over.

-As Napoleon noted, soldiers are most vulnerable at the moment of victory. It is more accurate to state that soldiers are most vulnerable at the moment in which combat ends. The moment the battle is over and the soldier begins to relax after an adrenal dump, he becomes all but useless.

-Clausewitz noted that reserves should be held well out of sight of battle, in order to keep them fresh and without stress-loads.

What do these points add up to? The importance of reserves. These factors are why counterattacks work and why rotation of troops is needed. In order to hold a newly gained position, one must commit reserves of fresh troops to the position. In order to pursue a fleeing enemy from a taken position, one must commit reserves in kind to push through the taken position.

Without reserves, the men will break.

If you do not have reserves, you cannot wage war.

Ukraine has committed it's strategic reserves into the offensive without the vanguard having first breached. The question then arises - if you are committing your reserves, what are they going to be supported with when the battles are done?

Kiev is no longer waging professional warfare by any metric of the term. It is now conducting the equivalent of a gambler who loses a hand, throws twice the money down to try again, loses again, and then moves onto the credit card, assuming that when the credit card is maxed out, it will somehow still be able to put money down.

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@Slavyangrad

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