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Sam Ursu's avatar

Thank you for this excellent analysis.

Let's discuss what's going on inside of Poland, politically speaking. Poland is going to have its next general election in November of this year, so there are a lot of forces jockeying for position, which can roughly be divided into four camps

1) The ruling PiS party

2) The Deep State (Radoslaw Sikorski + Applebaum)

3) Confederation (Konfederacja) nationalists

4) Donald Tusk leftists

Donald Tusk is beloved by the EU and openly advocates all the "woke" stuff like trans rights, green energy, abortions, and LGBTQ parades, drag shows, et al. His camp is less about being anti-Russia and more about opening the spigots for EU cash, studying abroad, "European integration" welcoming immigrants and foreign workers, etc. while wearing cool Nike sneakers and listening to American rap songs.

The Deep State duo of Sikorski and Applebaum just attended Bilderberg last weekend, and Sikorski was obviously in on the Nordstream bombing. This group is small but highly influential with a direct line to the swamp in Washington, and is virulently (as in foaming at the mouth) anti-Russian and is in support of more troops, more guns, and all that jazz about annexing Ukraine or reviving the Commonwealth, etc.

Konfederacja (officially the "The Confederation Liberty and Independence Party") are the "nationalists" or patriots or urban core of (mostly) young men who want Poland to be like Hungary under Orban (which is also a majority Catholic country) They're firmly anti-woke and are, in many cases, pushing for a more hardcore Catholic stance on private life issues (such as outlawing abortions). They're also sick and tired of Ukrainian refugees and foreign workers and want them ALL out. Konfederacja is currently rising in the polls. Call them the "MAGA" of Poland, if you like.

That leaves the ruling PiS, which keep tripping over their own feet because the shine is off the apple as they've been around too long (they're sinking in the polls, but still the most popular, at least for now). On one hand, they want to appease the EU (and keep the money and goodies flowing from them), but on the other hand, the conservative heartland (which is a core constituent) is angry about stuff like LGBTQ parades, abortions on demand, and most importantly, the devastation of Polish agriculture due to the influx of untaxed Ukrainian goods. Call the PiS the "middle ground" group.

So yeah, damn right, I believe the PiS is secretly lobbying to wind up the war in Ukraine. It'd fix the farmer/rural constituent problem as well as the unbelievably expensive Ukrainian refugee problem. It'd also shore up the budget which got pummeled by all those free gifts of weaponry, et al to Ukraine. But to save face, they sure as hell can't openly advocate for it or else risk the wrath of the Deep State/Tusk EU/Empire forces which would unleash the propaganda machine against them.

Keep in mind that PM Morawiecki got fucked hard in the ass by the Deep State last year when Ukraine killed two Polish farmers with that "errant" S-300 strike that was set up to be a false flag event to kick off WW3. The Deep State basically forced him to lie and say it was a Russian missile until, whoops, the op backfired just hours later when a local firefighter on the scene published the photos of the missile remnants and the internet quickly deduced they were obviously from (one or two is still debated) an S-300 fired by Ukraine.

That event might've been "memory holed" by the attention deficit West, but it isn't forgotten in Poland.

Basically, the PiS are genial middle-of-the-road folks being squeezed from all sides, and so it's going to be a screaming match between the EU Tusk leftists and the Konfederacja right-wing camps as we get closer to November. Best case scenario for PiS is they barely maintain a majority in Parliament and worst case is having to form a ruling alliance with one of the fringe parties, but either way, the days of PiS are numbered.

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Perspectives's avatar

I feel to comment on number 26.

"Oh that will be so nice Simplicius, we'll get to know each other and be buddies."

What bull crap! I would treat all such queries as FBI trolls. If people don't respect your anonymity they must be living in the 20th (last) century.

Please do not give an inch of your identity.

Don't do interview videos (facial recognition).

Don't do podcasts, (vocal recognition).

Do discussions in written format, submitting questions and taking the written replies.

Give us the transcripts only. (The best anonymity for talking with colleagues is the desktop app called "Session".) Not email.

If you know how to ensure complete anonymity on a separate (vanilla) computer, with no revealing logins, keep it that way. If you are still experimenting, well refine your technique. My Substack is based on Linux and a completely anonymous email client, with absolutely no knowledge of who I am or what my home IP address is. (It is tutanota.com if you don't know it). With that I can multiply my SEPARATE accounts by starting other emails, like on GMX or Proton. Then every application has another false reference point. I don't email to friends and family with tutanota. It is the backbone of my privacy.

(Of course your legacy identity is on your old computer to do banking and renew your driver's license, say hi to mom, etc. No need for it to disappear.)

There is no reason on earth we need your so-called credentials. (Have you ever made a resume')? You leave out all the questionable stuff, right? To me, all credentials are massaged. I ONLY DECIDE ON THE LOGIC OF THE CONTENT, and the utmost respect you show every time. Not what I am supposed to believe from this "authority". Even Saker did not have that respect, like his shorthand Ukranazies or the "crazies in the basement". If you need to refer to your own experience, allege a close relationship to an authority figure, (a false one because that authority may be you.)

The rest of you could take the hint and find what you can do for partial anonymity. I am not a techie at all. Finding out all you need to know only takes your interest.

PLEASE SIMPLICIUS, DON'T TAKE THE BAIT. Sent with the utmost care and respect for you as a person.

.

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