Re #17: They also lack passion to ensure good production. No matter the greed of corporations and power-hungry neocons, a country needs a Public zeitgeist to be amazing e.g. the permitted bombing of Pearl Harbour reversed almost total Public disinterest into effort. The general U.S. citizen has no time for intangible war. Tik Tok and pop, now that's something real :)

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

I didn't realize anyone still clicks on Drudge.

Head exploding, vomit inducing propaganda at its extreme. Sad part is there are people that will believe this actor. Supposedly he told WaPo he was in a bunker, saw Russians killed, and whoosh.

I don't do paywalls so I don't know.


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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

US media channel CNBC reported on the development and opening of the “Defense of Ukraine” program at the military-patriotic center for schoolchildren in Lviv.


The center was opened in May 2023 with plans to open dozens of other training facilities for children across the country in the near future. 


So there are three interesting anecdotal pieces of evidence that Ukraine is running out of manpower:

1. Training children for war is generally a signal of weakening military capacity among the adult population. If you don't have men, train teenagers.

2. Hot wars are won with soldiers, so this move makes it appear Ukraine is running short / out of manpower.

3. In addition notice no significant counteroffensive by Ukraine since October?? 2022. Following the massive losses in Bakhmut, Ukraine appears to have no capable trained manpower left.

The other signal of desperation is Ukraine developing their own Hitler Youth; I guess Zelensky Youth in 2023.

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Regarding the economy question and the request "I’ll ask the audience to chime in and see what Europeans think, and whether the changes are noticeable to them".

I've been tracking the global aluminium production here: https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ You can very clearly see several things. First, in most of the world production is stable. However, since February 2022, the production in Western and Central Europe has been on a LINEAR downward trend. It's now 20% below the pre-war level (and continuing the decline). Second, you can see an increase in South American production over the exact same time period. The increase is roughly half of European decrease. And finally, you can see than month-on-month variation in Chinese production dwarfs South American production. So, the conclusion is that Europe is slowly stopping the production of aluminium and the slack is picked up by South America and China.

And speaking from Serbia, I have noticed this perclorate to the common life. First, things are more expensive than they used to be. But second, there is at least one instance of material substitution in products I use. In Nescaffe instant coffie, the packaging has been changed during mid-2022. It used to be more "wrinkly" but today it's more plastiky and has a strong rounded shape. I didn't study the matter in detail, but it's possible they reduced the amount of aluminium in the package, such that they now use only a very thin layer and use plastic for structural stability of tha packaging. I can attest to all this because I'm a bit of a prepper and have a stockpile of coffie. I can put the old and new package side by side and CLEARLY see the difference. :)

Other industries that are supposed to be duying in Europe are production of paper and blown glass. And on that note, sometime around the beginning of 2023 I bought a new notebook and noticed the sheets of paper in it are much much thinner than previous notebooks I bought. Again, I can put the old and new notebook side by side and see the difference. As for blown glass, you should be on the lookout for glass bottles being replaced with plastic ones. For example, if you notice you can't really buy 500 ml glass bottles of beer but only 1 l plastic bottles of beer - that's a sign.

There are probably other signals. You just have to have specimens from before the war on hand and compare. At this early phase it'll all be hard to see stuff.

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Re #21: Good to follow a zillion sites to get an idea of the truth, a combination of economic and political analysts, from both sides. I won't be able to keep it up owing to the enormous time it takes which makes those who can important to me. But favourites include well-known figures such as Geoffrey Sachs, Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff. For daily analysis, I've been loving BNE IntelliNews at https://www.intellinews.com/. Their most read article, 'The EU can’t find most of Russia’s $300bn of frozen reserves', is 2 months old but this week's includes dedollarisation and development expansions by European banks and NDB. On their front page, look for the Data section on Europe. Macro n Cheese is a good podcast - https://www.podbean.com/podcast-detail/rcwhk-a9b2f/Macro-n-Cheese-Podcast. The Geopolitical Economy Report's latest is https://geopoliticaleconomy.substack.com/p/ukraine-neoliberalism-europe-economic-suicide. Sergey Aleksashenko may be an anti-Putinist but as the ex-Deputy at the Russian central bank, his posts should be read - https://ironcurtain.substack.com/

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May 23, 2023·edited May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Hello Sir.

re #21: I'm in Italy, textile industry (fashion, so nothing mil related) and I can confirm that, to my own astonishment, we still have more work to do than I supposed in such generally bad times. But no safety on how long it will be, as we live day by day..

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Hi :) !

1°) My 2 cents opinon : Macron 25% positive opinions (!!? :D ), may be, but the MSM are owned by his fri€nd$ and surely wouldn't allow them to describe the reality. Remember the Paris 8 May ceremony with empty Champs-Elyzées... ô_Ô !!

2°) About the big badaboOom in Khmelnitsky : this guy, Edward Riordan, is good at his skill. He already had remoteViewed in 2017 the C19 "outed" from Wuhan (at least), in the media, and there in April 2022 this 2023 blast. Radioactive dust spoken about.

My Ominous Perception April 2022, "Will Happen", Has Happened


Edward Riordan

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Obama's apparent Marxist roots are just more proof of the Trotskyist to Neocon pipeline.

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Thank you for this excellent analysis.

Let's discuss what's going on inside of Poland, politically speaking. Poland is going to have its next general election in November of this year, so there are a lot of forces jockeying for position, which can roughly be divided into four camps

1) The ruling PiS party

2) The Deep State (Radoslaw Sikorski + Applebaum)

3) Confederation (Konfederacja) nationalists

4) Donald Tusk leftists

Donald Tusk is beloved by the EU and openly advocates all the "woke" stuff like trans rights, green energy, abortions, and LGBTQ parades, drag shows, et al. His camp is less about being anti-Russia and more about opening the spigots for EU cash, studying abroad, "European integration" welcoming immigrants and foreign workers, etc. while wearing cool Nike sneakers and listening to American rap songs.

The Deep State duo of Sikorski and Applebaum just attended Bilderberg last weekend, and Sikorski was obviously in on the Nordstream bombing. This group is small but highly influential with a direct line to the swamp in Washington, and is virulently (as in foaming at the mouth) anti-Russian and is in support of more troops, more guns, and all that jazz about annexing Ukraine or reviving the Commonwealth, etc.

Konfederacja (officially the "The Confederation Liberty and Independence Party") are the "nationalists" or patriots or urban core of (mostly) young men who want Poland to be like Hungary under Orban (which is also a majority Catholic country) They're firmly anti-woke and are, in many cases, pushing for a more hardcore Catholic stance on private life issues (such as outlawing abortions). They're also sick and tired of Ukrainian refugees and foreign workers and want them ALL out. Konfederacja is currently rising in the polls. Call them the "MAGA" of Poland, if you like.

That leaves the ruling PiS, which keep tripping over their own feet because the shine is off the apple as they've been around too long (they're sinking in the polls, but still the most popular, at least for now). On one hand, they want to appease the EU (and keep the money and goodies flowing from them), but on the other hand, the conservative heartland (which is a core constituent) is angry about stuff like LGBTQ parades, abortions on demand, and most importantly, the devastation of Polish agriculture due to the influx of untaxed Ukrainian goods. Call the PiS the "middle ground" group.

So yeah, damn right, I believe the PiS is secretly lobbying to wind up the war in Ukraine. It'd fix the farmer/rural constituent problem as well as the unbelievably expensive Ukrainian refugee problem. It'd also shore up the budget which got pummeled by all those free gifts of weaponry, et al to Ukraine. But to save face, they sure as hell can't openly advocate for it or else risk the wrath of the Deep State/Tusk EU/Empire forces which would unleash the propaganda machine against them.

Keep in mind that PM Morawiecki got fucked hard in the ass by the Deep State last year when Ukraine killed two Polish farmers with that "errant" S-300 strike that was set up to be a false flag event to kick off WW3. The Deep State basically forced him to lie and say it was a Russian missile until, whoops, the op backfired just hours later when a local firefighter on the scene published the photos of the missile remnants and the internet quickly deduced they were obviously from (one or two is still debated) an S-300 fired by Ukraine.

That event might've been "memory holed" by the attention deficit West, but it isn't forgotten in Poland.

Basically, the PiS are genial middle-of-the-road folks being squeezed from all sides, and so it's going to be a screaming match between the EU Tusk leftists and the Konfederacja right-wing camps as we get closer to November. Best case scenario for PiS is they barely maintain a majority in Parliament and worst case is having to form a ruling alliance with one of the fringe parties, but either way, the days of PiS are numbered.

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

I've been saying this for months now:

What is happening in the US today, is what Yuriy Bezmionov describes as demoralisation and destabilisation. But who the fuck is doing it? China? Russia? Seems implausible. Maybe China more plausible, but they seem to be at odds with the US hegemonic elite who are the exact people pushing the woke agenda.

Bizarre world

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As I was watching a YouTube video on the end of title 42, I noticed something strange about the migrants. They were overwhelmingly males in their 20s and 30s.

We know a few things:

1) They can secure the border. There is no doubt about it. All you need to do is look at migrant numbers coming from the south during Trump’s time. This is deliberate.

2j This is not out of the goodness of their heart or their “values” of freedom. I don’t need to say more

3) The US Military has a recruiting problem and conscription will not go well to put it lightly. The scenes we see in Ukraine don’t work when the population has an abundance of weapons.

4) The war in Ukraine showed them how dismal their military production rates are ... they need to make more weapons quicker

5) They want to go to war with China because they can’t stop it by any other means and the sooner the better

Now it becomes obvious what’s happening on the southern border. Some will go to the factories. Others will fill out some PMC or infantry. If they don’t want that then they get deported.

I think the long term incentive to build those factories is there to some extent. It’s not just about Ukraine but more about China and if they are hell bent on starting this war as I think they are then they have at least on paper the demand for years to come. That in addition to rearming Europe since they can’t produce their own.

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

"that after this year the establishment will really want to wind the Ukraine war down, and likely seek a Korean DMZ scenario."

Yes, it's quite clear that the Borg sees this as a permanent scenario. The thrust of the MSM is tempering expectations for the (summer) offensive and building support for a frozen conflict.

When this happens, Russia will be under very intense pressure from the non-aligned (India, China) to accept a ceasefire. Thereafter there will be many more Belgorods. Russia will be forced to play whack-a-mole; Moldova, Georgia, Kaliningrad and I'm sure there are others of which I'm unaware. There were large demonstrations in Moldova just a couple of days ago. All the while Ukraine will be given more advanced weapons with greater range. Can Russia hold it in the road for 10 years with an occasional attack on Moscow and other proper Russian cities? Can they rescue Transnistria? The Borg is betting that it can keep the West in line for years. What about the long term for Russia?

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Until that mythical "collapse of the dollar" occurs, dollars will buy many freedom fighter/terrorist attacks.

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Guys, ladies want a good lol ??

The derangement of the G-7 leaders was captured in a speech delivered by Eliot Cohen, a fanatical neo-con, to the Polish Institute of International Affairs Strategic Ark Conference on May 17, 2023. Cohen said:

Russians must, moreover, conclude that Ukraine—formerly, in their view, a pseudo-state containing “cousins” or “little brothers”—is gone forever. That means speedy accession to the EU and NATO, but also a deep Western commitment to rebuilding Ukraine economically and, most important, arming it to the teeth for years to come.

The paltering of the administration about giving our superabundant F-16s to Ukraine is foolish and shortsighted. These jets might not make a difference on the battlefield two months from now, but the knowledge that several hundred of them are in the pipeline for the next five years would have profound symbolic importance. We should be talking about how we will rebuild Ukraine’s armed forces, the West’s largest, most combat-tested, and in some ways most determined army.

The West needs an aggressive information campaign to drive home the reality of Russian defeat. Russians need to be reminded that their faltering economy is only a tenth the size of the EU’s; that they cannot build and deploy a modern tank; that their latest high-performance jet, the Su-57, will be outnumbered by the F-35s of the four small Nordic states; that their generals are superannuated and incompetent; that their high command is indifferent to their men’s lives; that their equipment is inferior to that of Ukraine; and that their logistics are rotted by graft and corruption.


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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Do you think it likely that the UKR counteroffensive will, if it happens at all, kick off during the June NATO exercises when Russia will be keeping half an eye on that campaign?

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May 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Like healthcare, information is "priceless but has a cost"; hence , tip into the jar!

Re flying from highways: Sweden air force has practiced it for a long time, in case of emergency.

P.S.: if you write Lvov not to say Lviv, then please spell Lwow (accent on o missing on my keyboard); my dear mother lived and sang there for many years before moving to France. Well, memories of things that aren't there anymore.... Thank you for what you do!

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