Maybe this latest repeat of Russian history will teach Russians that they need to straighten their institutions, army, and state, instead of outsourcing it to robber baron oligarchs. And treat your real friends and allies better, the ones who stood by you; like Chechens, Iranians, Koreans, Syrians, Armenians, Ugandans, Cubans, and the rest who still remember and honour the debt of blood Soviets and modern Russia spilled with them shoulder to shoulder against the American and European powers in their fight for independence. Learn the lessons of the old Soviets, they built a worldwide coalition for a reason.
Yes, Old Soviet built good relationship with the rest of the world, because they were only alternative super-power at that time besides USA. I have always remember how Kruschev trying to reach out President Soekarno for support, who also happen to have relationship with JFK. But that's the era before JFK Assassinated, and Soekarno ousted by CIA.
But unfortunately people are people whether they are Cubans, Russians or Iranians. Too many fall for the promises of fame, greed and revenge. People are people. And in the Soviet Union in the 90s it was a drunk corrupt leader, in the US in 2023 it is a demented corrupt deviant leader. Like the "climate" ie weather moves in cycles so does human history and the lessons needed to be learned. Your wish is like saying "well this time we will end poverty".
Russia like China Iran etc are on the expanding power side of their existence. I couldnt be happier.
Your right in a very important sense .. Russian "experiments" with western style liberalization, privatization and social volunteerism (making social responsibility optional ) must END to save Russia. Russia needs to build out and improve its basic conscript foundation hand and hand with expanding and improving career opportunities for those who want to continue in the military. Conscript armies are better armies generally, for numerous reasons but mainly because they represent the societies they exist in..provided that abuse by the wealthy and connected is vigorously discouraged and the burden doesn't fall entirely on the working class .The most powerful armies in history were "peoples" armies -conscripts..the Red Army was, of course but so was the Wehrmacht and so were the US and British armies of WW2 .
Hoping the Ukrainians run day run out of equipment and men is not a good strategy if you ask me. I think war strategy should be developed around the premise that western supplies are endless. It is a good thing the Soviets did not adopt the strategy the Putin is using during WWII. You would not have seen Operation Bagration. There would have been no counter offensive at all. You would all be speaking Germany today, those fortunate enough to be left alive.
20,000 draft dodgers in Cherigov Oblast? Hilarious. There are about 300,000 men who could be considered eligible for the draft (18-50) in this Oblast and I am sure a huge number of those would be unfit for duty in one way or another. So, in other words, something close to 10% of all men fit for military service are hiding and this before the war become pretty obviously hopeless and during a time when general morale was much higher.
One can imagine how poorly things will go for the Uke authorities as they try to press-gang an increasingly desperate and disillusioned populace into the meat grinder.
too scared. may be 'they' (the nazis) are only after my neighbour today, may be I will live another day. Well, then they come for you tonight or tomorrow, your neighbour is not going to be around to help.. standard human behavior
If people are even scared of digital images of a "virus" what can one expect when someone comes with a rifle to your door ... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN has brainwashed, propagandised, indoctrinated THE HUMAN MIND into oblivion .... EVERYONE rejecting the ONE AND ONLY SOVEREIGN GOD ALMIGHTY AND HIS ONLY BEGOTTEN SON, SHEPHERD AND SAVIOUR JESUS CHRIST AND THE HOLY SPIRIT is going to cost him/her dear ... THE JIG IS UP!!!
Lack of faith, religious faith, is the source of all weakness, I might not have the capacity to judge anyone from religious perspective but, I could say so because if you do not have solid fundamental belief, then any negative influence will come into the heart easily.
Using words such good and bad / positive and negative apart from in an abstract perceptual sense shows the "solidity" of any other cult in comparison to THE ONE AND ONLY SOVEREIGN GOD ALMIGHTY - there IS and there CAN ONLY be ONE ULTIMATE CAUSE (SCIENTIFICALLY speaking - in contrast to scientism)
And as in most countries, the Nazis (or Stalinists) knock down your door in the middle of the night in a group armed with automatic weapons and you have a kitchen knife or garden implement.
true. However in this case ukronazi 'mobilizers' are out there in plain sight and during the day, this is not SWAT kicking door down scenarios. and population still covering in fear ,'may be not me this time', 'may be not to Bakhmut', etc.. Just human nature
There was statistics reported earlier in February for month of January 2023 using mobilization numbers (I dont remember which region)
- ~200k summons (povestka) issued in person
- 87k people showed up (so 44%)
- out of 87k people 82k were already sent to Bakhmut
so total mobilization from Kiev regime, half of population dodges (and likely to get worse) and zero training as people who issued summons are sent to front line with '3 days of training'.
because we are human? i do not judge them , easy to say when we are not there... Those who could run , by many millions. six million refugees to Russia, at least the same to Europe...
I guess you right but things happened because they have the choice to run away. But running away do not solve the problem at all, just delay the result that will come.
true. also, people tend to always underestimate the severity until it literally hits them in the face, hard. Oh, no - it would not involve us. OH, no - this is only for someone else, and I am exempt. Oh, no - I signed up for territorial brigade and they told us that we would only serve on territory of our region. Oh, no we should not worry because 'by law' that is how territorial defense works, etc. etc. etc.
Guess what - dictators like Zelensky could and would completely ignore any 'law'. Guess what - territorial brigades were used as meat shields and suffered horrible losses. Guess what - exempt from service categories get changed and removed as regime in Kiev suffers losses. Guess what - when you had a chance to run away, this was your chance to save your life...
Not long ago a friend of mine made a family visit to Ukraine. As a father of three, he was exempt from service, but when he entered they still made him register and take the physical. He returned to Canada only two weeks before they changed the rules, which made him eligible. Took a big chance going back, and his wife and kids are still there. Fortunately they're in a remote village up by the Polish border, so as safe as you can be under the circumstances I guess.
Chernigov has a population of 1 million. So if 1 million can produce 300,000 conscripts, then 24 million can produce 7 million conscripts. Ukraine is losing about 500 a day, so 7 million will last for 14,000 days (=38 years). So as long as Ukraine can keep up with the war's demand, this conflict can last for a long time.
There is a lot more to it than that. There are ~300,000 men of draft-eligible age in Chernigov Oblast. 18-50. Many, many, many, especially once you get to the cadres over 35 or so, are going to be physically unfit. Even my estimate of 200,000 is extremely optimistic because I would figure the callous, uncaring regime in Kiev would not care too much about the fitness of the individual.
In reality a good rule of thumb is you can draft about 10% of the population before you start to run out of people who are in condition to fight in any way at all and have to start sending out children, cripples, and old men.
Further, this also depends on the Kiev regime's ability to efficiently mobilize the people they draft. They have shown they are not particularly good at it. Numbers cited above by "EngNobody" seem to indicate the Kiev regime is only about 40% successful at getting its draftees to show up. It is likely that their efforts will become increasingly unscuccessful as the war goes on.
European let NATO happened, indirectly contributing to what taking place in Jewkraine today by being bystander. Now, the bill is coming and they have to pay for it. It is what it is.
Your three examples of a suicidal Russian mentality is as ridiculous to me as it is to yourself. I wouldn't claim to have a huge circle of friends, work colleagues or acquaintances but almost all the ones that I can be bothered to debate as to why Russia would inflict such catastrophic harm to themselves resort to: 'Well it's Putin, innit? He's a madman!'
I'm afraid that the level of stupidity amongst the average UK citizen is increasing rather than receding. It's staggering and extremely disconcerting. I've virtually stopped enquiring if they can point me in the direction of any logic that could explain why Russia would destroy such valuable assets..
Regarding the false flag, I noticed a few things in addition to what you mentioned.
1. Russia has not just put the ZNPP in cold shutdown. If they have been anticipating such an attack, they may have been busy removing all nuclear material from the site for the past year.
2. If both Budanov and Zelensky gave two videos about it each, it is probably within days or weeks of being deployed.
3. I doubt that Ukraine's SBU will use a plan that depends on their capture of the ZNPP, due to their multiple prior failures to do so. They either have a dirty bomb already built, or they have been given a tactical nuclear weapon by their sponsors to use for this purpose. If they use a dirty bomb, they only need to detonate it within a mile or two of the ZNPP to give the appearance of a radiation leak at the plant. Also, note that the US Senate resolution about this used the terminology "radiation leak". This suggests the false flag goes all the way to the top and certain members of the US Senate are involved in preparing for it. Also note that the US President and his staff gave multiple warnings against Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine last September. This is similar to how they warned Assad prior to issuing contracts to PMC's to deploy chemical false flags on Syrian territory to be blamed on Assad.
4. An alternative way to frame Russia is to put out an irresistible target for a zircon strike anywhere on Ukrainian held territory, with a nuclear weapon stored nearby. Cameras will be set up from a mile away to capture whatever happens there on film. When the zircon hits the target, detonate the nuclear weapon remotely. Catch it all on camera, and accuse Russia of using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine.
#4 seems more likely to me because of the difficulties with #3. Alternatively, they can also destroy one of the other working nuclear power plants deep in Ukrainian territory and make all the same propaganda claims.
Conclusion, there will definitely be some kind of radiological false flag to try to deny Russia victory. Since Ukrainian defeat seems to be getting close, we are now in the window for such an event, June to October of 2023. They may have plan A and B so that if they cannot capture the ZNPP, they might do it to another NPP, or they might fake a nuclear weapon use on Ukrainian soil to blame Russia. But if they have such a small nuclear weapon in their hands, they will almost certainly try to devise a way to use it on the Russian Army while blaming the Russians for it. Make it appear that Russia nuked their own army by mistake or something similar.
For example, if they could make it appear that Russia accidentally nuked the city of Donetsk, the pain, horror, confusion, and outrage in Russia would create chaos.
I agree, to say they are going to bomb the cooling ponds etc without the idea of just removing the material the ukies want to bomb occurring to someone is very unlikely.
All good points. I wrote up a long post about how/why the west would do this to bring in NATO even though NATO can't win. I'm calling it the Nuland Surprise.
My hypothetical situation was the west claims that Ukraine breaks through Russian defensive lines and then claims that Russia nukes them. When actually the offensive stalls and the west nukes Russia's defensive lines.
I don't know what the USA's specific plans are, but a nuclear event of some kind is looking more and more likely. The Zircon entrapment is clever, but I'm leaning more toward a NPP because it is less likely to accidentally trigger a nuclear war. That said, I agree that the Ukrainians are unlikely to take the ZNNP, SAS or Navy Seals maybe?
Just one more thought, the USA has a bunch of Russian nuclear fuel purchased in the last 30 years and they could add it to missile payloads even if Russia has already removed the fuel rods from ZNPP. They could even refine it to make a 'Russian nuke' and the isotopic ratios would match up.
I'm hoping that Russian intelligence is better than western intelligence and that Russia is able to thwart this false flag before it happens.
"SAS or Navy Seals maybe" LOL they are not so special. They would have no hope of doing that. Hypersonics and arty don't care about specialists; it's all meat to them. And Russians have their own SF which are a magnitude better in all respects.
Yup. I know a retired Spetznas who teaches both Russian tactics and techniques with the pistol and the Kalashnikov. He also coaches folks on optimizing Kettlebell workouts for combat and teaches Systema, as well.
Even the SF of nations friendly to Russia (like China) are extremely formidable. Their SF has already fought alongside Russia and Assad's forces in Syria so they have experience working with each other.
Add in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah backed up by Russian ISR and Air and artillery support and the west will soon be in over their heads.
Hell of a lot of trouble to go to in order to do what? NATO declare war on Russia? This insane mob could do that tomorrow on any pretext whatever. They know that, I'm sure.
They could just tell the world that clause xxy subsection z made it imperative. Who would know? Who would care?
They - you know, it's the same 'they' really - told the world to lock themselves indoors and not come out until they were told, to wear masks when they did, to prove ID before going into the mall, the supermarket, the shop, the hospital, the dentist, the doctor's, to take this injection and to bring their kids along for the same treatment.
And the world did it.
You think they didn't learn something from that?
I know the world (those people) didn't.
But they are smarter than the mass aren't they? Not objectively smarter being 'smart' really means logical and humane, life -giving, but 'subjectively' smarter in they can manipulate us where were can't manipulate them.
They are, I'm sure, well smart enough to have learned from that. I am without doubt about it.
After all the lesson they learned: that they can do as they like with us - is only what is totally in accord with their proclivities. It is what they started off by believing anywhere. It is their dearest wish.
So why go to all that trouble is about the only flaw I see with all that.
Popular support. Pearl Harbor and 9/11 flipped American sentiments like a switch. The neocons in the Biden administration want to send in NATO, but they can't do so without a pretext.
Yep. My thought is that public sentiments don't matter a damn to administrations today. And if they did the sentiments are sufficiently in favour of a war that they perceive as truly simply being 'Russia v Ukraine' without any troubling nuance such as Kiev v Donbas or human rights or ethnic cleansing or CIA manipulation etc...
Seems to me the Americans that are against the war, what few they are, are against THAT war - they see it exactly as MSM, Kiev, Washington put it. They are against it simply because they don't want involvement in war for various reasons.
But they are very few and they are not 'pro Russia' and certainly not 'pro Donbas' which they don't even know exists.
'can't do so without pretext' is right but wrong. They need a pretext, sure. But it doesn' t have to be even halfway plausible. Absolutely anything will do for the public do not matter. Not at all.
I can go along with that. I can conjure up pictures of their meeting rooms - cocktail parties, soirees, conferences, whatever, wherever they get together - and each telling the other that 'oh yes, we must do this' and 'oh yes we must do that' and 'of course this demands that response' and so on...
All part of the same club swallowing their own propaganda. Human trait. Find it in any clubroom in the land.
But another thing you find in any clubroom in the land is a kind of 'hidden in plain sight' group of real power holders in that club. Those who really decide what is going to happen.
And that's who we're talking about here.
They know damn well they can do whatever they like whenever they like and will do so.
Yep probably the last thing on the agenda to discuss after deciding what they are going to do will be 'What will we tell the members?'
and the usual answer is 'anything.... let them believe what they want'
and things proceed on that basis.
The more experienced and astute 'managers' knowing you only have to go out to the members and declare for instance 'we had to kill Jim' and then into the shocked silence 'you'd appreciate why' and then retire to await developments.
Pretty soon they'll be able to take the temperature and know what the consensus is amongst the members - 'Jim was a thief', or 'Jim was a traitor' or 'Jim lied to us' or whatever and then the astute managers adopt that 'reason' and feed it back to the members.
Regarding your point #1 - There are a total of 2,200 tonnes of nuclear material in the spent fuel area at this NPP. That's a tremendous logistical nightmare with respect to safe removal. The transport vehicles would have to be specialized to keep the fuel cool and the vehicles could not practically transport very much fuel at a time, for safety reasons. Has any such transport ever been attempted anywhere in the world? It would take a long time to accomplish, and it would not be able to be accomplished w/o the inspectors seeing it and satellites seeing it as well. This is, in my opinion, not possible / not an option. It has not been attempted here.
Regarding your point #4 - What target exists in Ukraine that the world at large thinks the Russians can't snuff with a conventional attack? None that I can think of. So the obvious question in the aftermath of such an event would be Why did Russia resort to using a nuke at this location? This kind of scheme would be far harder to blame on Russia than the proposed Ukrainian hit on the NPP, and make it stick.
I agree that we're facing a major nuclear false flag, unless the statement by Anatoly Antonov, which warns that NATO entering Ukraine will make it impossible for the US to hide behind the ocean, is taken seriously enough that this false flag option is dispensed with - and NATO / US may have to 'dispense' with Zelensky and his radical intelligence operatives b/c if he is told "No!" on this false flag he is very likely to go ahead and do it anyway - will the US trade one of its cities for Ukraine?
New fuel rods that have never been in the core of an active reactor are quite safe, requiring only minimal precautions. Of course, they are not allowed to get into close proximity to each other in concentrated quantities when packaged/shipped lest fission reactions could begin. But once these rods have become irradiated inside the core of an active reactor for 1 to 2 years they become highly toxic and dangerous gamma ray emitters. Spent rods are terrifically dangerous - they must be kept cool under many feet of circulating fresh water at all times, else the cooling ponds will boil, the rods will over-heat, melt down and explode, spreading radioactive debris. Spent fuel rods are dangerously radioactive and will generate heat for decades. For example - the spent rods contain a number of highly-radioactive elements, including plutonium. However, new rods contain only uranium-235 pellets that are either un-enriched or only slightly enriched, encased in zirconium cylinders.
So how does a reactor generate heat if the new rods are so low in radiation? The many rods in the core of a reactor are placed in very close proximity to each other, with control rods, which are absorbers of neutrons, able to be inserted into the spaces between the fuel rods, so as to snuff any fission. The entire core then, made up of clusters of fuel and control rods, is submerged in water inside the core. When the control rods are withdrawn, partially, the fission reaction begins, and heat is generated. The entire core is usually encased in lead, which is a good neutron reflector, causing escaping neutrons to be reflected back into the core where the fission is taking place, ensuring greater efficiency. The nuclear 'magic' that happens to the fuel rods in an active reactor core transforms them into extremely dangerous items, which is a source of plutonium that can be refined/enriched and used to make nuclear weapons.
" which is a source of plutonium that can be refined/enriched and used to make nuclear weapons." - which is OBVIOUSLY THE REASON why "THIS TYPE" of nuclear "breader" has been employed all over the world.... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN was never interested in "cheap" and/or "clean" energy but ALWAYS simply wanted to rule the world by INTIMIDATION telling others how to live their life.... AMONG many other MANIPULATIONS... lying is the only trait of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN it is truly professional at .... which is why it lasted so long enough people have woken - although not fully - up to THE LIE ... BUT the good news is THE JIG IS UP THE TRUTH is coming as can be witnessed by Simplicius... and BTW although your description of the danger regarding nuclear "waste" (which is another LIE in and of itself) may technically be correct it is in REALITY the same NARRATIVE TACTICS - intentionally or unintentionally - of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN to HIDE ALL THE OTHER LIES behind ... exactly the same way a magician tricks you into looking at him in a way you are not able to detect his "cheating" ... BEWARE OF "EXPERTS" most are paid cheaters in the pocket of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN...
One point. Pu239 is bred from U238 in U235 fueled power reactors. But Pu239 IS NOT highly radioactive. It is a very low-energy alpha emitter. It isn't special because it's highly radioactive, because it isn't. It's special because it is fissile. With thermal neutrons of the correct energy it has one of the largest capture cross-sections of any isotope. Check any standard nuclear engineering or isotope reference.
Putin has stated many times that Russia *will not* be the first to launch a nuke. This has been Russian (previously Soviet) policy for many decades. This was Soviet policy because of their overwhelming superiority in conventional forces (3 to 4 million under arms, fully equipped). NATO always had much less than 1 million, so during the cold war the US *never* stated a "no first use" policy, which is still true today.
I'm pretty sure the Russians don't have any more "TS" left, but if someone lights up Russian Federation territory with even a small tactical nuke, the inclination to respond with a real strike may be impossible to resist. This is why the rhetoric coming out of congress and the white house, after 25 years of constant provocation, is so incredibly dangerous.
It could be a deep fake by the same people who made deep fake videos of Osama Bin Laden to justify the US Army chasing a ghost into multiple countries for 10 years.
The 'deep fake' OBL videos were more of a body double type. The persons used (as there were a few) didn't even look like him. But still the TV watching suckers fell for it.
I can’t wait until the war is over and all the pro-Ukraine grifters are unmasked.
Untold millions, perhaps billions, of dollars have been stolen via donations from woefully misinformed, but well meaning Westerners (the road to hell is paved with good intentions, or something like that)
It doesn't matter. Whether it's Badonov, a body double, or a deep fake, it's an expression of the intentions of the Ukrainian ruling cabal, and that's what's important for the point our authour is making.
So much in this. You’ve done a masterful job running the emotional gamut from the nuclear concern to tying it up with the patriotism of the people. In between was pertinent battlefield information. You keep outdoing yourself.
Let's be honest, more is always better when it comes to almost anything. Do I wish Russia did 10 new mobilizations and got 2 million troops? Sure. Is that realistic? No.
Can Russia win with the current troop count? Yes, but only in a slower grind as it's not enough troops to open up too many new fronts or have gigantic reserves for major breakthroughs. Eventually there could be another mobilization down the line, depending on what happens. But for now I'm confident it's enough to continue progressively winning.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I understand that the Russian Federation has army reserves of more than two million. Of course of varying age, fitness, military experience, recency of active duty, etc. Maybe a mobilization of several hundred thousand would allow a broad offense to achieve much more quickly the principle goal of completely annexing all Ukr territory east of the Dneiper and including the coastal area from Odessa to Kherson and Kharkiv.
There will be many folks from the Global South willing to provide fighters, logistics or both to Russia. Hell, you will probably end up with tens of thousands of Iraqis and Afghans who are willing to stage IED and suicide bombing attacks against U.S./NATO forces for revenge.
Add in South Africa whose black ruled regime looks at Russia and China as their "Big Brothers." Then there are South Africa's white Boers who own huge shares of stocks in Chinese companies.........when both the whites and blacks in South Africa are united behind the Russian -Chinese bloc the entire west is already in deep trouble.
It goes without saying they are going to try and destroy the power plants. But the problem with that plan is even if nato jumps in, they cant win and who may join Russia's side if that happens is a factor they cant foresee as Everyone hates nato.
NATO loves NATO. And the neocons totally failed in the middle east, that didn't stop them from raising their sights to taking on Russia. This was from 2004:
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
And they have only gotten dumber and more brazen since then.
" We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality..." whoever said that or even believes such rubbish will EVENTUALLY be found out what A TOOL he is.
Someone has to convince me of "NATO can't win". They (esp. the US) will bring in a lot of air power to bear down on the Russian positions on the front and eventually they are going into Russia proper. I just don't, yet, see any serious explanations of the equation here or elsewhere.
If you can't see any serious explanations of the equation you're not looking very hard. Andrei Martyanov has been explaining it for years and writing books about it. And Simplicius has written at length about the respective strengths and weaknesses of America/Russia.
"... Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group ..." Oh yeah, he wouldn't shill for more, bigger, fancy, expensive weapons in the West. Totally objective. Definitely not a Putin hater <eye roll>. I hope he had a good native English speaking editor for his books. His blog writing is almost indecipherable. No thanks.
If you're fishing for evidence of evil wrongdoing by Wagner for which they must be held to account the last I heard - somewhere from within the usual: Rolo, Slavsquat, Simpli, etc - was that the pilots acted without orders in attacking the Wagner columns. Thereby making it sort of 'non issue', i.e. don't bring it up.
I'll probably cover it on the next report because this one already got overlong. However there are different versions. One version I heard today was that the Mi-8s that were shot down in particular were not even associated with the anti-Wagner operation. They were allegedly just flying nearby and heading to the frontline in Ukraine when they were shot down. There's no confirmation though of any of that so take with a grain of salt.
The Ka-52s were the only ones that were obviously attacking as we've seen videos of that.
A statement "allegedly" released today by Prigozhin says that the Il-22 was shot down by mistake:
"Prigozhin said that the plane was shot down by mistake by a fool air defence soldier in one of the columns. The families of the victims will be paid 50,000,000 rubles - 5,000,000 rubles per victim - a total of 10 people died on the plane."
My 10 cents on ZNPP attack - 4 Problems for Kiev and NATO:
#1 - prevailing winds - they aren't heading East. There would be a high risk of contamination to western Europe.
#2 - lack of surprise: Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of a surprise attack anymore. The Kremlin would have presumably gamed out this nightmarish scenario from every possible angle, and prepared for it.
#3 - China : if Kiev/NATO follow through with such an insane plan (they probably will, I agree), I think China gets involved, on Russia's side. This is the last thing NATO wants or needs (and is unlikely to be a military intervention btw).
#4 - Russian response : could be dramatic, unexpected and lethal. Don't Poke the Bear.
i saw that too, but whether those apcs are for use in Chechnya or ukraine the article did not specify. I would assume at home as who needs another battlefield logistics chain for spares etc.
Send a division or three of troops over for some really high quality real world training.....and rotate them every few months. Good rehearsal for the confrontation the US seeks...
#1. Prevailing winds at that latitude are from the NW. [Edit: correction, prevailing winds are from SW, which would push the cloud of radionucleotides directly into Russia.] But, if Ukraine's goal is to trigger Article 5 to get NATO involved, they need the winds to blow from the SE, and this would also spread the contamination over Ukraine to even get to a NATO country. Winds do change from time to time, but given the size of Ukraine, it would greatly narrow the possible date range for them. So, they probably have an alternative plan to generate radiological contamination closer to the borders of NATO.
#2. Control of the MSM allows them to do such stunts even though Russia foils them. See COVID 19 for example. The actual virus hardly killed anyone. But the media hysteria and lockdown plans proceeded and created the massive geopolitical problems anyway.
#3. China will not get involved militarily except at last resort. Even with Taiwan, I doubt they will ever invade Taiwan. At most they might sink some US Navy ships in their waters.
#4. Agreed. Kremlin has had enough warning to game this out. They will have a response already planned and ready.
#1 - There are several prevailing winds in the region, none from SE though as I understand it. Perhaps someone with more expertise can tell us what are the strongest prevailing winds and their directions.
#3 China - I may not have been clear enough. Remember, the western narrative is that China is 'sitting on the fence' and can be persuaded to take an anti-Moscow posture. It's a ridiculous narrative, but many deluded western leaders seem to truly believe it.
My point was more that Kiev/NATO (desperate) may not be factoring the China card into their planning at all, or sufficiently. For example if there was an attack on ZNPP, I think that China's support for Moscow may become far more public and visible - the dynamic would change in a way that destroys the West's narrative.
China may also take action in retaliation to such a move, as the ZNPP attack would be a crime against humanity. Beijing can inflict a great deal of damage on the West without military means. I'm not sure that western leaders (many who are racist) truly understand this.
Taiwan - agreed but I don't think any sinking of ships will take place. My position is that the Taiwanese themselves will end up voting to rejoin the Chinese mainland, and a new Taiwanese government will ask the Americans to leave. At worst (if military is required) the Chinese will blockade the island until it rejoins.
Beijing is in no rush - it can wait. At the moment, the Chinese strategy appears to be to lure PR-addicted , broken Washington DC into committing more and more military resources and political capital to Taiwan, which of course ties the Americans down in the region and prevents them from using those resources elsewhere. And of course, the current American leadership is falling right into the trap.
In March 2022 Russia & China [signed a] Joint Statement Articulates United Opposition to Western Alliance.
Their joint statement is a historic articulation of the major shift underway from the unipolar world that has existed since the fall of the Soviet Union. In it they articulate how they will respond and act over Ukraine & Taiwan.
#1 - The fall out from bombing a shut down nuclear power plant, such as the ZNPP will be an order of magnitude or so less than the Chernobyl explosion, which was an operating reactor when it blew up. As such, compared to Chernobyl, prevailing winds in Ukraine will have much less impact on how far a much smaller quantity of radiation fall out, from a bombed but shut down nuclear power plant, will travel on winds.
China is involved now to my mind simply by not getting involved. It plays the game of deliberately holding back in a clear issue of civil war: invasion of Donbas by Kiev.
It could at a minimum issue clear statements of that truth. It chooses to do nothing.
To my mind that wishes to bring harm on the Allies.
It also could follow suit with anywhere else in the world and sell the allies anything they want without selling them directly arms and munitions, couldn't it? China should be beyond these ludicrous sanctions.
The allies could be in receipt of disassembled goodies of all kinds: from drones to tanks.
China is not playing 'fair'. It is playing stand apart and watch. Which is unfair. Because it is not apart. It is part of this world.
One thing I haven't seen much mentioned but is a titanic shift: China is now the pre-eminent political power of the world.
It used to be the USA, to whom all countries, even those on bad terms, would look for direction in diplomatic affairs. Even North Korea, in open rebellion in the international scene, was in open rebellion against the USA.
That's no longer the case. With the inexorable growth of the BRI, the BRICS+ integration proceeding apace, US blunders over the past 20 years culminating in the absolutely disastrous one-two of the retreat from Afghanistan and the start of the war in the Ukraine, and the master-stroke of the re-integration of Syria into the Middle East, China has now taken that place. Even the USA now applies to China as a suppliant, hoping for favour. USG has maintained its vassals in Europe, but even they recognize the change - see Scholz' and Macron's recent missions to China.
Yep. Very clearly has the 'balance of power'. That's game, set and match. They are the man. What's happening now in Ukraine, in Europe is at the very least being allowed by China and more probably to some degree of other being directed by them.
NATO response is heavily dependent on UN support. If China, and obviously Russia veto a US proposal for intervention it will leave NATO without international support.
China already has a lot of pull in the UN, NATO would effectively be left to fight Russia while China and the unaligned countries simply profit heavily. It'd be total disaster for the US.
Not sure if NATO can intervene as long as China remains neutral. They'd just be degrading their own capabilities while China grows stronger, and that's where the real fight is, with China.
Think tanks and technocrats have been complaining the war is taking too long and prevents the US and NATO from pivoting to China.
Unless the fallout from ZNPP somehow finds its way to Washington, it won't matter. Europe and Ukraine both are a sacrifice thst the United States is willing to make.
Maybe. One thing seems certain given what we have seen to date - Washington never considers the consequences of its actions, in particular the law of unintended consequences.
If more proof were needed that the coup attempt was prepared in Ukraine. After Putin's speech, the madness of the planned disinformation campaign on social networks and texts in the press also prepared like the article by nuts Anne Applebaum, who must be foaming at the mouth today. And in the daily update of the Russian war reporter Marat Khairullin, today the first words were also to confirm how it was clear that the AFU was prepared to take advantage of any benefit or disorientation of the Russian forces at the front.
They are desperate and play the last cards one after the other more and more desperate. Militarily, Ukraine has already crossed the line of collapse and the new recruits are cannon fodder. There is no point in continuing to talk about the "counter-offensive" that was born a failure. Ukraine's problem today is the ability to oppose any major offensive maneuver by Russia! Which for now remains more committed to destroying any capacity of the Ukrainian forces and then we'll see. I, for one, never noticed any interest from the Russian forces in crossing the Dnieper. Where I think that Russia bets more on the neutrality of the territory than on taking a territory in an open field up to the border of the NATO countries. But obviously it must depend on the dynamics of the conflict itself.
As for the ZNPP it is an objective of Ukraine since the Russian forces occupied the Central. And why? Because it is the only real underwaffe to blackmail Russia. All other NPP are further away from Russian territory. Already what they plan to do, I don't know. But from psychopaths we should always expect the worst! Very sincerely. I hope that Russia is very attentive. Nor is it easy to detonate a nuclear disaster without leaving a trace. Any missile will always leave a trail.
'counter offensive' was always a misnomer and use of it displays either stupidity or laziness or secret intent to promote the Nazi agenda.
For the truth is, of course, that it is a 'continue offensive'.
What else can you call it when you're looking at armies stalled in the midst of an offensive they began in 2014 to occupy and take the whole of the Donbas?
And the 'counter offensive' the allies put up still hasn't managed to get them out?
Is this nitpicking semantic rubbish I am talking?
I think not.
Here is a highly sophisticated war of propaganda which is costing nations their wealth and future and has taken upward of half a million lives already: and all predicated in the public mind on the belief that 'Russia has invaded Ukraine and Ukraine is fighting back'.
So the public funds the war.
But Russia invaded Ukraine for how long? A couple of weeks or a couple of months? I don't know. Not long. And then retired behind the Donbas lines to help the Donbas people and has been there ever since
There are NO Russian boots on the ground in Ukraine where they have not been invited.
So: you either understand what I'm saying or you don't and I can't persuade you but it is a fundamental point of enormous significance to my mind:
This is no 'counter offensive' it is 'continued offensive' with the aim of completing the invasion and possession of the Donbas in order that they might effect ethnic cleansing there.
And then move on to Crimea to do the same thing.
And in their wild imaginings, with the help of USA and NATO move on to Russia itself and do the same there.
That is the stark simply reality that NO ONE seems to want to tell the people.
A counter-offensive is an action taken wherein the troops sally forth to stop an ongoing offensive in its tracks and force it to end before achieving its goals. It is, at most, operational in scope.
An offensive is an attempt by the party with initiative to gain progress toward its strategic war aims.
This is, and always has been, a Ukrainian offensive.
Agree. There’s no such thing as a counter-offensive. Thierry Meyssan analyses this very well.
Military literature prefers to speak of a counter-attack rather than a counter-offensive. A counter-attack consists in taking advantage of the enemy’s momentary weaknesses to launch an assault.
Choosing the term "counter-offensive" is not neutral. It’s a communication device suggesting that the Russians have launched an "offensive" to seize Ukraine. In fact, they fought at the capital’s northern airport before withdrawing.
In reality, the Russians have never attempted to take Kiev and have no intention of invading Ukraine. That’s what their president, Vladimir Putin, said in the first week of his "special operation". Taking a military airport, even one north of Kiev, is just a battle to give the Russians air superiority. It does not indicate that they intended to take the capital.
The term "special operation" is not neutral either. Moscow is stressing that it is not waging a war of invasion, but is implementing its "responsibility to protect" the populations of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblates, who had officially been the targets of a punitive operation by Kiev, since 2014.
The West has swallowed every lie the Kyiv regime produced since the Maidan in 2014, with only one exception: the rocket killing two farmers in Poland, which the war hawks wanted to use to trigger Art. 5. Even though Zelensky continued to insist that it was a Russian rocket, the adults quickly intervened to stop the escalation. Zelensky may find that the West won't accept any ZNPP false flag to trigger Art. 5. This could finally doom the Kyiv regime, if the West had to admit that the Ukrainians did it. Maybe it's just one lie to many, one false flag too many, that could bring down the card house of lies.
Regarding the rocket in Lubelskie województwo, I understand that the Polish government wanted to blame Russia but didn't do a good job controlling release of the pictures.
Also, no point for NATO to get involved at that time, as there were still plenty of Ukrainian bodies left to soak up bullets.
There should be a fine for anyone posting online the video of that thing that is supposed to be Khokhol's head of military intelligence! It's really scary! Not even on Halloween!
It's unlikely that the "coup" was a huge ultra machiavellian mother of all mole hunts, but we'll see.
Filatov is so fed up with the whole thing he posted this on his tg:
"For Prigozhin and Shoigu in an eternal ban, fuck)))
Friends, attention.
Non-friends and admirers of Shoigu/Prigozhin, go to hell with the replies! Zadolbali.
For those who seek the truth, open the SparkInterfax program and start sifting through Prigozhin's firms and their sources of wealth. Find there contracts and interweaving with the RF Ministry of Defense, as well as other interesting logical connections. Who started shooting at those from whom he fed? I?
You can also watch Shoigu there, with his relatives.
"Putin's Chef" is not my title. Whose order did Prigozhin disobey?
Now a new rule.
Offenders read carefully!
Any mention of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner in the channel bot and you are going to be banned. Even if you donated 100tr, 1 million rubles, I don't care. Even if you are a cool and smart subscriber who made you happy with ideas - go to the Wagner Center (which, by the way, was ready to buy ready-made, and not help create something. PR, in general).
I am not a stripper and I am not obliged to please you! You didn't donate to me, for the stupid - donated NOT to ME, YOU DO NOT FEED MY CHILDREN! YOU DON'T BUY ME ANYTHING.
YOU HELP THROUGH ME / helped the 114 Brigade and other units. Reproaching me with your money is stupid. I don't live with them.
My attitude towards private armies is negative. Since the time of the Slavic Corps, if anyone understands. Friends in the ranks of PMC Wagner were and are. With them, in personal communication, I am ready to discuss these topics and have always discussed my opinion.
Why ban? If you are completely stupid, but want to get smarter, then search Yandex for "Olginsky trolls" and you will find it. Answers to "friendly questions" can then very nicely come out in shitty shit.
I have budgets from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the maintenance of trolls and there is no reciprocal srach. You cannot convince me. You don't have enough arguments.
Value your time if you don't value mine. Maybe if there is a vacation for a minor injury (I don’t see any other way to find time, then I’ll torture the stream with answers to stupid questions), otherwise I’m a military man who lives in the fields / locations and I don’t have time for hourly clarifications.
We remember. In the channel bot I see Prigozhin / Shoigu / Wagner - go to the ban."
That's true, that's another piece of the puzzle which I've talked about before. Could be somewhat related to why the West is planning to sabotage ZNPP in a falseflag.
My utterly uninformed guess is a breeder reactor setup, or precursor to one.
The hilarious thing about this guess, and why it fits so well with USG policy, is that Russia would have no need to examine such a thing to understand it. Russian nuclear proliferation technology is ahead of that of the US. (In fact, SOVIET nuclear proliferation technology still is. It's a neglected field in the US.)
I dunno. I'm just some guy with an internet connection who likes to read dissident press and other stuff.
If you're asking for a guess? Assuming I'm right about it being breeder technology that USG doesn't want Russia to touch, ultimately not really. The Atomic Commission knows full well that Russia knows more about isotope promotion and consequent reactor design than they do, and while the technology can provide nuclear materials, it can't be simply turned into a weapon.
The quickly aborted and shelved Prigozhin's Gambit was quite likely due to the flash-in-the-pan nature of the arc. A quick boost in ratings, likely just before selling advertising, before returning to the classic military programming. The audience for the SMO Show certainly skews male, so it is an understandable decision. Wars and battles are a stereotypically male fascination, and a clear audience is a benefit to advertisers. There are many other shows running for mass appeal, such as the Oceangate fiasco, echoing the tragedy of the original Titanic.
The shift to the Zaphorozhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) false flag and the threat of the new military action is certainly compelling in light of the Ukranians' demonstrated willingness to take great risks for great potential gains (the counteroffensive perhaps being a necessary political move). It is likely also to help maintain peak ratings for the advertisers, always an important consideration. The use of product placement will likely occur during this operation - hopefully to better effect than the Patriot and Leopard 2 during the Counteroffensive arc.
I rate this arc above-average, a solid 8/10. Though I personally wished to see more of the Russian/Belorussian perspective, I cannot fault the showrunners for returning to a working formula. While the occasional plot twist or change in tone or theme is appreciated, any long-running show usually has a few standbys to fall back on, such as false flag threats. These have recurred in many arcs, so their return now should come as no surprise.
Maybe this latest repeat of Russian history will teach Russians that they need to straighten their institutions, army, and state, instead of outsourcing it to robber baron oligarchs. And treat your real friends and allies better, the ones who stood by you; like Chechens, Iranians, Koreans, Syrians, Armenians, Ugandans, Cubans, and the rest who still remember and honour the debt of blood Soviets and modern Russia spilled with them shoulder to shoulder against the American and European powers in their fight for independence. Learn the lessons of the old Soviets, they built a worldwide coalition for a reason.
Yes, Old Soviet built good relationship with the rest of the world, because they were only alternative super-power at that time besides USA. I have always remember how Kruschev trying to reach out President Soekarno for support, who also happen to have relationship with JFK. But that's the era before JFK Assassinated, and Soekarno ousted by CIA.
But unfortunately people are people whether they are Cubans, Russians or Iranians. Too many fall for the promises of fame, greed and revenge. People are people. And in the Soviet Union in the 90s it was a drunk corrupt leader, in the US in 2023 it is a demented corrupt deviant leader. Like the "climate" ie weather moves in cycles so does human history and the lessons needed to be learned. Your wish is like saying "well this time we will end poverty".
Russia like China Iran etc are on the expanding power side of their existence. I couldnt be happier.
Your right in a very important sense .. Russian "experiments" with western style liberalization, privatization and social volunteerism (making social responsibility optional ) must END to save Russia. Russia needs to build out and improve its basic conscript foundation hand and hand with expanding and improving career opportunities for those who want to continue in the military. Conscript armies are better armies generally, for numerous reasons but mainly because they represent the societies they exist in..provided that abuse by the wealthy and connected is vigorously discouraged and the burden doesn't fall entirely on the working class .The most powerful armies in history were "peoples" armies -conscripts..the Red Army was, of course but so was the Wehrmacht and so were the US and British armies of WW2 .
Hoping the Ukrainians run day run out of equipment and men is not a good strategy if you ask me. I think war strategy should be developed around the premise that western supplies are endless. It is a good thing the Soviets did not adopt the strategy the Putin is using during WWII. You would not have seen Operation Bagration. There would have been no counter offensive at all. You would all be speaking Germany today, those fortunate enough to be left alive.
20,000 draft dodgers in Cherigov Oblast? Hilarious. There are about 300,000 men who could be considered eligible for the draft (18-50) in this Oblast and I am sure a huge number of those would be unfit for duty in one way or another. So, in other words, something close to 10% of all men fit for military service are hiding and this before the war become pretty obviously hopeless and during a time when general morale was much higher.
One can imagine how poorly things will go for the Uke authorities as they try to press-gang an increasingly desperate and disillusioned populace into the meat grinder.
(edit for spelling)
They need to gang up, overwhelm the kidnappers when they come for them.
too scared. may be 'they' (the nazis) are only after my neighbour today, may be I will live another day. Well, then they come for you tonight or tomorrow, your neighbour is not going to be around to help.. standard human behavior
Not just too scared, they live in society which is lack of credible and trusted people. None capable to take command and unite people around.
If people are even scared of digital images of a "virus" what can one expect when someone comes with a rifle to your door ... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN has brainwashed, propagandised, indoctrinated THE HUMAN MIND into oblivion .... EVERYONE rejecting the ONE AND ONLY SOVEREIGN GOD ALMIGHTY AND HIS ONLY BEGOTTEN SON, SHEPHERD AND SAVIOUR JESUS CHRIST AND THE HOLY SPIRIT is going to cost him/her dear ... THE JIG IS UP!!!
Lack of faith, religious faith, is the source of all weakness, I might not have the capacity to judge anyone from religious perspective but, I could say so because if you do not have solid fundamental belief, then any negative influence will come into the heart easily.
Using words such good and bad / positive and negative apart from in an abstract perceptual sense shows the "solidity" of any other cult in comparison to THE ONE AND ONLY SOVEREIGN GOD ALMIGHTY - there IS and there CAN ONLY be ONE ULTIMATE CAUSE (SCIENTIFICALLY speaking - in contrast to scientism)
Bore someone else with your superstitious mumbo-jumbo.
And as in most countries, the Nazis (or Stalinists) knock down your door in the middle of the night in a group armed with automatic weapons and you have a kitchen knife or garden implement.
true. However in this case ukronazi 'mobilizers' are out there in plain sight and during the day, this is not SWAT kicking door down scenarios. and population still covering in fear ,'may be not me this time', 'may be not to Bakhmut', etc.. Just human nature
There was statistics reported earlier in February for month of January 2023 using mobilization numbers (I dont remember which region)
- ~200k summons (povestka) issued in person
- 87k people showed up (so 44%)
- out of 87k people 82k were already sent to Bakhmut
so total mobilization from Kiev regime, half of population dodges (and likely to get worse) and zero training as people who issued summons are sent to front line with '3 days of training'.
Just crazy how UkroNazis regime expects people to sign up for their death, and even crazier that people showed weak resistance.
because we are human? i do not judge them , easy to say when we are not there... Those who could run , by many millions. six million refugees to Russia, at least the same to Europe...
I guess you right but things happened because they have the choice to run away. But running away do not solve the problem at all, just delay the result that will come.
true. also, people tend to always underestimate the severity until it literally hits them in the face, hard. Oh, no - it would not involve us. OH, no - this is only for someone else, and I am exempt. Oh, no - I signed up for territorial brigade and they told us that we would only serve on territory of our region. Oh, no we should not worry because 'by law' that is how territorial defense works, etc. etc. etc.
Guess what - dictators like Zelensky could and would completely ignore any 'law'. Guess what - territorial brigades were used as meat shields and suffered horrible losses. Guess what - exempt from service categories get changed and removed as regime in Kiev suffers losses. Guess what - when you had a chance to run away, this was your chance to save your life...
Not long ago a friend of mine made a family visit to Ukraine. As a father of three, he was exempt from service, but when he entered they still made him register and take the physical. He returned to Canada only two weeks before they changed the rules, which made him eligible. Took a big chance going back, and his wife and kids are still there. Fortunately they're in a remote village up by the Polish border, so as safe as you can be under the circumstances I guess.
Chernigov has a population of 1 million. So if 1 million can produce 300,000 conscripts, then 24 million can produce 7 million conscripts. Ukraine is losing about 500 a day, so 7 million will last for 14,000 days (=38 years). So as long as Ukraine can keep up with the war's demand, this conflict can last for a long time.
There is a lot more to it than that. There are ~300,000 men of draft-eligible age in Chernigov Oblast. 18-50. Many, many, many, especially once you get to the cadres over 35 or so, are going to be physically unfit. Even my estimate of 200,000 is extremely optimistic because I would figure the callous, uncaring regime in Kiev would not care too much about the fitness of the individual.
In reality a good rule of thumb is you can draft about 10% of the population before you start to run out of people who are in condition to fight in any way at all and have to start sending out children, cripples, and old men.
Further, this also depends on the Kiev regime's ability to efficiently mobilize the people they draft. They have shown they are not particularly good at it. Numbers cited above by "EngNobody" seem to indicate the Kiev regime is only about 40% successful at getting its draftees to show up. It is likely that their efforts will become increasingly unscuccessful as the war goes on.
Then Kiev will need to send out children, cripples, and old men to keep up with the war.
Which would be a Volkssturm and history tells us how well this goes.
Yeah, but Kiev and Washington don't care and Russian soldiers will be reluctant to shoot at kids.
First Nordstream, then Nova Kakhova Dam and next the NPP. NATO is a cancer and Suicide Pill for the World.
European let NATO happened, indirectly contributing to what taking place in Jewkraine today by being bystander. Now, the bill is coming and they have to pay for it. It is what it is.
Fits its Nazi roots-- just like the EU
Your three examples of a suicidal Russian mentality is as ridiculous to me as it is to yourself. I wouldn't claim to have a huge circle of friends, work colleagues or acquaintances but almost all the ones that I can be bothered to debate as to why Russia would inflict such catastrophic harm to themselves resort to: 'Well it's Putin, innit? He's a madman!'
I'm afraid that the level of stupidity amongst the average UK citizen is increasing rather than receding. It's staggering and extremely disconcerting. I've virtually stopped enquiring if they can point me in the direction of any logic that could explain why Russia would destroy such valuable assets..
If I were you I wouldn't bother arguing with anyone who says "innit" unless they're a programmer lol
Regarding the false flag, I noticed a few things in addition to what you mentioned.
1. Russia has not just put the ZNPP in cold shutdown. If they have been anticipating such an attack, they may have been busy removing all nuclear material from the site for the past year.
2. If both Budanov and Zelensky gave two videos about it each, it is probably within days or weeks of being deployed.
3. I doubt that Ukraine's SBU will use a plan that depends on their capture of the ZNPP, due to their multiple prior failures to do so. They either have a dirty bomb already built, or they have been given a tactical nuclear weapon by their sponsors to use for this purpose. If they use a dirty bomb, they only need to detonate it within a mile or two of the ZNPP to give the appearance of a radiation leak at the plant. Also, note that the US Senate resolution about this used the terminology "radiation leak". This suggests the false flag goes all the way to the top and certain members of the US Senate are involved in preparing for it. Also note that the US President and his staff gave multiple warnings against Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine last September. This is similar to how they warned Assad prior to issuing contracts to PMC's to deploy chemical false flags on Syrian territory to be blamed on Assad.
4. An alternative way to frame Russia is to put out an irresistible target for a zircon strike anywhere on Ukrainian held territory, with a nuclear weapon stored nearby. Cameras will be set up from a mile away to capture whatever happens there on film. When the zircon hits the target, detonate the nuclear weapon remotely. Catch it all on camera, and accuse Russia of using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine.
#4 seems more likely to me because of the difficulties with #3. Alternatively, they can also destroy one of the other working nuclear power plants deep in Ukrainian territory and make all the same propaganda claims.
Conclusion, there will definitely be some kind of radiological false flag to try to deny Russia victory. Since Ukrainian defeat seems to be getting close, we are now in the window for such an event, June to October of 2023. They may have plan A and B so that if they cannot capture the ZNPP, they might do it to another NPP, or they might fake a nuclear weapon use on Ukrainian soil to blame Russia. But if they have such a small nuclear weapon in their hands, they will almost certainly try to devise a way to use it on the Russian Army while blaming the Russians for it. Make it appear that Russia nuked their own army by mistake or something similar.
For example, if they could make it appear that Russia accidentally nuked the city of Donetsk, the pain, horror, confusion, and outrage in Russia would create chaos.
I agree, to say they are going to bomb the cooling ponds etc without the idea of just removing the material the ukies want to bomb occurring to someone is very unlikely.
They also can strike with total impunity another NPP.
NOT Zaporozhye NPP . . . South Ukraine NPP ???
All good points. I wrote up a long post about how/why the west would do this to bring in NATO even though NATO can't win. I'm calling it the Nuland Surprise.
My hypothetical situation was the west claims that Ukraine breaks through Russian defensive lines and then claims that Russia nukes them. When actually the offensive stalls and the west nukes Russia's defensive lines.
I don't know what the USA's specific plans are, but a nuclear event of some kind is looking more and more likely. The Zircon entrapment is clever, but I'm leaning more toward a NPP because it is less likely to accidentally trigger a nuclear war. That said, I agree that the Ukrainians are unlikely to take the ZNNP, SAS or Navy Seals maybe?
Just one more thought, the USA has a bunch of Russian nuclear fuel purchased in the last 30 years and they could add it to missile payloads even if Russia has already removed the fuel rods from ZNPP. They could even refine it to make a 'Russian nuke' and the isotopic ratios would match up.
I'm hoping that Russian intelligence is better than western intelligence and that Russia is able to thwart this false flag before it happens.
"SAS or Navy Seals maybe" LOL they are not so special. They would have no hope of doing that. Hypersonics and arty don't care about specialists; it's all meat to them. And Russians have their own SF which are a magnitude better in all respects.
Yup. I know a retired Spetznas who teaches both Russian tactics and techniques with the pistol and the Kalashnikov. He also coaches folks on optimizing Kettlebell workouts for combat and teaches Systema, as well.
Even the SF of nations friendly to Russia (like China) are extremely formidable. Their SF has already fought alongside Russia and Assad's forces in Syria so they have experience working with each other.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=He-nuUMmGCA
Add in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah backed up by Russian ISR and Air and artillery support and the west will soon be in over their heads.
Hell of a lot of trouble to go to in order to do what? NATO declare war on Russia? This insane mob could do that tomorrow on any pretext whatever. They know that, I'm sure.
They could just tell the world that clause xxy subsection z made it imperative. Who would know? Who would care?
They - you know, it's the same 'they' really - told the world to lock themselves indoors and not come out until they were told, to wear masks when they did, to prove ID before going into the mall, the supermarket, the shop, the hospital, the dentist, the doctor's, to take this injection and to bring their kids along for the same treatment.
And the world did it.
You think they didn't learn something from that?
I know the world (those people) didn't.
But they are smarter than the mass aren't they? Not objectively smarter being 'smart' really means logical and humane, life -giving, but 'subjectively' smarter in they can manipulate us where were can't manipulate them.
They are, I'm sure, well smart enough to have learned from that. I am without doubt about it.
After all the lesson they learned: that they can do as they like with us - is only what is totally in accord with their proclivities. It is what they started off by believing anywhere. It is their dearest wish.
So why go to all that trouble is about the only flaw I see with all that.
Popular support. Pearl Harbor and 9/11 flipped American sentiments like a switch. The neocons in the Biden administration want to send in NATO, but they can't do so without a pretext.
Yep. My thought is that public sentiments don't matter a damn to administrations today. And if they did the sentiments are sufficiently in favour of a war that they perceive as truly simply being 'Russia v Ukraine' without any troubling nuance such as Kiev v Donbas or human rights or ethnic cleansing or CIA manipulation etc...
Seems to me the Americans that are against the war, what few they are, are against THAT war - they see it exactly as MSM, Kiev, Washington put it. They are against it simply because they don't want involvement in war for various reasons.
But they are very few and they are not 'pro Russia' and certainly not 'pro Donbas' which they don't even know exists.
'can't do so without pretext' is right but wrong. They need a pretext, sure. But it doesn' t have to be even halfway plausible. Absolutely anything will do for the public do not matter. Not at all.
Pearl Harbor and 9/11 were attacks on America (irrespective of who was actually responsible) which undeniably each killed many Americans on US soil.
A nuke plant explosion in a far away country has no similar resonance for most Americans.
It may be an acceptable pretext for the warmongers but it is not going to produce great public support.
Perhaps because "they" feel the need to maintain the illusion of their-good versus the-other-bad.
I can go along with that. I can conjure up pictures of their meeting rooms - cocktail parties, soirees, conferences, whatever, wherever they get together - and each telling the other that 'oh yes, we must do this' and 'oh yes we must do that' and 'of course this demands that response' and so on...
All part of the same club swallowing their own propaganda. Human trait. Find it in any clubroom in the land.
But another thing you find in any clubroom in the land is a kind of 'hidden in plain sight' group of real power holders in that club. Those who really decide what is going to happen.
And that's who we're talking about here.
They know damn well they can do whatever they like whenever they like and will do so.
Yep probably the last thing on the agenda to discuss after deciding what they are going to do will be 'What will we tell the members?'
and the usual answer is 'anything.... let them believe what they want'
and things proceed on that basis.
The more experienced and astute 'managers' knowing you only have to go out to the members and declare for instance 'we had to kill Jim' and then into the shocked silence 'you'd appreciate why' and then retire to await developments.
Pretty soon they'll be able to take the temperature and know what the consensus is amongst the members - 'Jim was a thief', or 'Jim was a traitor' or 'Jim lied to us' or whatever and then the astute managers adopt that 'reason' and feed it back to the members.
That's the way it works.
Everywhere.
To strengthen point 3, the US senate NEVER EVER does anything in a coordinated fashion when caught with their pants down.
Regarding your point #1 - There are a total of 2,200 tonnes of nuclear material in the spent fuel area at this NPP. That's a tremendous logistical nightmare with respect to safe removal. The transport vehicles would have to be specialized to keep the fuel cool and the vehicles could not practically transport very much fuel at a time, for safety reasons. Has any such transport ever been attempted anywhere in the world? It would take a long time to accomplish, and it would not be able to be accomplished w/o the inspectors seeing it and satellites seeing it as well. This is, in my opinion, not possible / not an option. It has not been attempted here.
Regarding your point #4 - What target exists in Ukraine that the world at large thinks the Russians can't snuff with a conventional attack? None that I can think of. So the obvious question in the aftermath of such an event would be Why did Russia resort to using a nuke at this location? This kind of scheme would be far harder to blame on Russia than the proposed Ukrainian hit on the NPP, and make it stick.
I agree that we're facing a major nuclear false flag, unless the statement by Anatoly Antonov, which warns that NATO entering Ukraine will make it impossible for the US to hide behind the ocean, is taken seriously enough that this false flag option is dispensed with - and NATO / US may have to 'dispense' with Zelensky and his radical intelligence operatives b/c if he is told "No!" on this false flag he is very likely to go ahead and do it anyway - will the US trade one of its cities for Ukraine?
How do the fuel rods get to the power plant? People move tons of Uranium all the time.
New fuel rods that have never been in the core of an active reactor are quite safe, requiring only minimal precautions. Of course, they are not allowed to get into close proximity to each other in concentrated quantities when packaged/shipped lest fission reactions could begin. But once these rods have become irradiated inside the core of an active reactor for 1 to 2 years they become highly toxic and dangerous gamma ray emitters. Spent rods are terrifically dangerous - they must be kept cool under many feet of circulating fresh water at all times, else the cooling ponds will boil, the rods will over-heat, melt down and explode, spreading radioactive debris. Spent fuel rods are dangerously radioactive and will generate heat for decades. For example - the spent rods contain a number of highly-radioactive elements, including plutonium. However, new rods contain only uranium-235 pellets that are either un-enriched or only slightly enriched, encased in zirconium cylinders.
So how does a reactor generate heat if the new rods are so low in radiation? The many rods in the core of a reactor are placed in very close proximity to each other, with control rods, which are absorbers of neutrons, able to be inserted into the spaces between the fuel rods, so as to snuff any fission. The entire core then, made up of clusters of fuel and control rods, is submerged in water inside the core. When the control rods are withdrawn, partially, the fission reaction begins, and heat is generated. The entire core is usually encased in lead, which is a good neutron reflector, causing escaping neutrons to be reflected back into the core where the fission is taking place, ensuring greater efficiency. The nuclear 'magic' that happens to the fuel rods in an active reactor core transforms them into extremely dangerous items, which is a source of plutonium that can be refined/enriched and used to make nuclear weapons.
" which is a source of plutonium that can be refined/enriched and used to make nuclear weapons." - which is OBVIOUSLY THE REASON why "THIS TYPE" of nuclear "breader" has been employed all over the world.... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN was never interested in "cheap" and/or "clean" energy but ALWAYS simply wanted to rule the world by INTIMIDATION telling others how to live their life.... AMONG many other MANIPULATIONS... lying is the only trait of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN it is truly professional at .... which is why it lasted so long enough people have woken - although not fully - up to THE LIE ... BUT the good news is THE JIG IS UP THE TRUTH is coming as can be witnessed by Simplicius... and BTW although your description of the danger regarding nuclear "waste" (which is another LIE in and of itself) may technically be correct it is in REALITY the same NARRATIVE TACTICS - intentionally or unintentionally - of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN to HIDE ALL THE OTHER LIES behind ... exactly the same way a magician tricks you into looking at him in a way you are not able to detect his "cheating" ... BEWARE OF "EXPERTS" most are paid cheaters in the pocket of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN...
One point. Pu239 is bred from U238 in U235 fueled power reactors. But Pu239 IS NOT highly radioactive. It is a very low-energy alpha emitter. It isn't special because it's highly radioactive, because it isn't. It's special because it is fissile. With thermal neutrons of the correct energy it has one of the largest capture cross-sections of any isotope. Check any standard nuclear engineering or isotope reference.
"Has any such transport ever been attempted anywhere in the world?"
- it's very common. Especially for Russians, who (thanks to the French cancelling themselves) own 100% of nuclear reprocessing capacity in the world.
Even French nuclear waste is now reprocessed in Russia and that necessitates moving it somehow.
Usually using trains or ships. There are specialized railway carriages for this and purpose designed ships.
I think you underestimate what is involved in removing nuclear material from a reactor that has been shut down. This video will help you understand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQgJkzs63oo
Just look at the quantity of spent fuel. ZNPP has six reactors.
Sorry, wrong video. I think this is the one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9nr6t9uUWs
i think we are talking about the fuel in the cooling ponds outside instead of the fuel in the reactor, at least i was.
Excellent points. They are the best chess players-- we shouldn't forget.
Or they will wrap a massive dirty bomb around a tactical nuke and create a truly continent-wide disaster.
Which will make Russia toss an actual nuke like a Tsar Bomba
Putin has stated many times that Russia *will not* be the first to launch a nuke. This has been Russian (previously Soviet) policy for many decades. This was Soviet policy because of their overwhelming superiority in conventional forces (3 to 4 million under arms, fully equipped). NATO always had much less than 1 million, so during the cold war the US *never* stated a "no first use" policy, which is still true today.
I'm pretty sure the Russians don't have any more "TS" left, but if someone lights up Russian Federation territory with even a small tactical nuke, the inclination to respond with a real strike may be impossible to resist. This is why the rhetoric coming out of congress and the white house, after 25 years of constant provocation, is so incredibly dangerous.
I don’t get it. Three days ago, the Badonov video was a deep fake. Now it’s legit?? https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-62123-russia-re-orients-to?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-bec9bd53-e084-474b-83c0-aa08b231a132
It could be a deep fake by the same people who made deep fake videos of Osama Bin Laden to justify the US Army chasing a ghost into multiple countries for 10 years.
The 'deep fake' OBL videos were more of a body double type. The persons used (as there were a few) didn't even look like him. But still the TV watching suckers fell for it.
That was also 15 years ago. The tech for deep fake is orders of magnitude better now.
They're totally fake. But it doesn't really matter, as they're designed for pro-Ukraine types who will believe anything put in front of them.
I can’t wait until the war is over and all the pro-Ukraine grifters are unmasked.
Untold millions, perhaps billions, of dollars have been stolen via donations from woefully misinformed, but well meaning Westerners (the road to hell is paved with good intentions, or something like that)
It doesn't matter. Whether it's Badonov, a body double, or a deep fake, it's an expression of the intentions of the Ukrainian ruling cabal, and that's what's important for the point our authour is making.
I notice the flip, too.
So much in this. You’ve done a masterful job running the emotional gamut from the nuclear concern to tying it up with the patriotism of the people. In between was pertinent battlefield information. You keep outdoing yourself.
Yes and no. In the correction on number of soldiers I am not sure about implications -- does Russia have enough or not soldiers?
Let's be honest, more is always better when it comes to almost anything. Do I wish Russia did 10 new mobilizations and got 2 million troops? Sure. Is that realistic? No.
Can Russia win with the current troop count? Yes, but only in a slower grind as it's not enough troops to open up too many new fronts or have gigantic reserves for major breakthroughs. Eventually there could be another mobilization down the line, depending on what happens. But for now I'm confident it's enough to continue progressively winning.
Thank you. My concern is -- wars are incredibly expensive and therefore can’t last forever without ruin.
Thank you once again.
And Russia's superior military tech? (hypersonic, air etc.) How does that fit in? Or are you just assuming WW1 like strategy?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I understand that the Russian Federation has army reserves of more than two million. Of course of varying age, fitness, military experience, recency of active duty, etc. Maybe a mobilization of several hundred thousand would allow a broad offense to achieve much more quickly the principle goal of completely annexing all Ukr territory east of the Dneiper and including the coastal area from Odessa to Kherson and Kharkiv.
There will be many folks from the Global South willing to provide fighters, logistics or both to Russia. Hell, you will probably end up with tens of thousands of Iraqis and Afghans who are willing to stage IED and suicide bombing attacks against U.S./NATO forces for revenge.
Add in South Africa whose black ruled regime looks at Russia and China as their "Big Brothers." Then there are South Africa's white Boers who own huge shares of stocks in Chinese companies.........when both the whites and blacks in South Africa are united behind the Russian -Chinese bloc the entire west is already in deep trouble.
It goes without saying they are going to try and destroy the power plants. But the problem with that plan is even if nato jumps in, they cant win and who may join Russia's side if that happens is a factor they cant foresee as Everyone hates nato.
NATO loves NATO. And the neocons totally failed in the middle east, that didn't stop them from raising their sights to taking on Russia. This was from 2004:
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
And they have only gotten dumber and more brazen since then.
" We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality..." whoever said that or even believes such rubbish will EVENTUALLY be found out what A TOOL he is.
HISTORY IS ONLY WRITTEN BY ONE ....
Someone has to convince me of "NATO can't win". They (esp. the US) will bring in a lot of air power to bear down on the Russian positions on the front and eventually they are going into Russia proper. I just don't, yet, see any serious explanations of the equation here or elsewhere.
If you can't see any serious explanations of the equation you're not looking very hard. Andrei Martyanov has been explaining it for years and writing books about it. And Simplicius has written at length about the respective strengths and weaknesses of America/Russia.
"... Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group ..." Oh yeah, he wouldn't shill for more, bigger, fancy, expensive weapons in the West. Totally objective. Definitely not a Putin hater <eye roll>. I hope he had a good native English speaking editor for his books. His blog writing is almost indecipherable. No thanks.
Any news confirming the loss of Russian air assets by Wagner?
If you're fishing for evidence of evil wrongdoing by Wagner for which they must be held to account the last I heard - somewhere from within the usual: Rolo, Slavsquat, Simpli, etc - was that the pilots acted without orders in attacking the Wagner columns. Thereby making it sort of 'non issue', i.e. don't bring it up.
I'll probably cover it on the next report because this one already got overlong. However there are different versions. One version I heard today was that the Mi-8s that were shot down in particular were not even associated with the anti-Wagner operation. They were allegedly just flying nearby and heading to the frontline in Ukraine when they were shot down. There's no confirmation though of any of that so take with a grain of salt.
The Ka-52s were the only ones that were obviously attacking as we've seen videos of that.
A statement "allegedly" released today by Prigozhin says that the Il-22 was shot down by mistake:
"Prigozhin said that the plane was shot down by mistake by a fool air defence soldier in one of the columns. The families of the victims will be paid 50,000,000 rubles - 5,000,000 rubles per victim - a total of 10 people died on the plane."
Don't know if this statement is confirmed yet
The loss of VITAL EW airframes and highly skilled crews is magnified tenfold. Any military would struggle to replace both.
Thank you Simplicius for your tireless efforts.
My 10 cents on ZNPP attack - 4 Problems for Kiev and NATO:
#1 - prevailing winds - they aren't heading East. There would be a high risk of contamination to western Europe.
#2 - lack of surprise: Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of a surprise attack anymore. The Kremlin would have presumably gamed out this nightmarish scenario from every possible angle, and prepared for it.
#3 - China : if Kiev/NATO follow through with such an insane plan (they probably will, I agree), I think China gets involved, on Russia's side. This is the last thing NATO wants or needs (and is unlikely to be a military intervention btw).
#4 - Russian response : could be dramatic, unexpected and lethal. Don't Poke the Bear.
i agree, especially with #3
#4 for me.
What would China do?
Anything they want, lol. Send ammo, equipment, test tanks. whatever.
IIRC they already sent a bunch of equipment to Chechen Akhmat
i saw that too, but whether those apcs are for use in Chechnya or ukraine the article did not specify. I would assume at home as who needs another battlefield logistics chain for spares etc.
Send a division or three of troops over for some really high quality real world training.....and rotate them every few months. Good rehearsal for the confrontation the US seeks...
#1. Prevailing winds at that latitude are from the NW. [Edit: correction, prevailing winds are from SW, which would push the cloud of radionucleotides directly into Russia.] But, if Ukraine's goal is to trigger Article 5 to get NATO involved, they need the winds to blow from the SE, and this would also spread the contamination over Ukraine to even get to a NATO country. Winds do change from time to time, but given the size of Ukraine, it would greatly narrow the possible date range for them. So, they probably have an alternative plan to generate radiological contamination closer to the borders of NATO.
#2. Control of the MSM allows them to do such stunts even though Russia foils them. See COVID 19 for example. The actual virus hardly killed anyone. But the media hysteria and lockdown plans proceeded and created the massive geopolitical problems anyway.
#3. China will not get involved militarily except at last resort. Even with Taiwan, I doubt they will ever invade Taiwan. At most they might sink some US Navy ships in their waters.
#4. Agreed. Kremlin has had enough warning to game this out. They will have a response already planned and ready.
Good comments.
#1 - There are several prevailing winds in the region, none from SE though as I understand it. Perhaps someone with more expertise can tell us what are the strongest prevailing winds and their directions.
#3 China - I may not have been clear enough. Remember, the western narrative is that China is 'sitting on the fence' and can be persuaded to take an anti-Moscow posture. It's a ridiculous narrative, but many deluded western leaders seem to truly believe it.
My point was more that Kiev/NATO (desperate) may not be factoring the China card into their planning at all, or sufficiently. For example if there was an attack on ZNPP, I think that China's support for Moscow may become far more public and visible - the dynamic would change in a way that destroys the West's narrative.
China may also take action in retaliation to such a move, as the ZNPP attack would be a crime against humanity. Beijing can inflict a great deal of damage on the West without military means. I'm not sure that western leaders (many who are racist) truly understand this.
Taiwan - agreed but I don't think any sinking of ships will take place. My position is that the Taiwanese themselves will end up voting to rejoin the Chinese mainland, and a new Taiwanese government will ask the Americans to leave. At worst (if military is required) the Chinese will blockade the island until it rejoins.
Beijing is in no rush - it can wait. At the moment, the Chinese strategy appears to be to lure PR-addicted , broken Washington DC into committing more and more military resources and political capital to Taiwan, which of course ties the Americans down in the region and prevents them from using those resources elsewhere. And of course, the current American leadership is falling right into the trap.
In March 2022 Russia & China [signed a] Joint Statement Articulates United Opposition to Western Alliance.
Their joint statement is a historic articulation of the major shift underway from the unipolar world that has existed since the fall of the Soviet Union. In it they articulate how they will respond and act over Ukraine & Taiwan.
https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/16/joint-russia-china-statement-articulates-united-opposition-to-western-alliance/
#1 - The fall out from bombing a shut down nuclear power plant, such as the ZNPP will be an order of magnitude or so less than the Chernobyl explosion, which was an operating reactor when it blew up. As such, compared to Chernobyl, prevailing winds in Ukraine will have much less impact on how far a much smaller quantity of radiation fall out, from a bombed but shut down nuclear power plant, will travel on winds.
China is involved now to my mind simply by not getting involved. It plays the game of deliberately holding back in a clear issue of civil war: invasion of Donbas by Kiev.
It could at a minimum issue clear statements of that truth. It chooses to do nothing.
To my mind that wishes to bring harm on the Allies.
It also could follow suit with anywhere else in the world and sell the allies anything they want without selling them directly arms and munitions, couldn't it? China should be beyond these ludicrous sanctions.
The allies could be in receipt of disassembled goodies of all kinds: from drones to tanks.
China is not playing 'fair'. It is playing stand apart and watch. Which is unfair. Because it is not apart. It is part of this world.
One thing I haven't seen much mentioned but is a titanic shift: China is now the pre-eminent political power of the world.
It used to be the USA, to whom all countries, even those on bad terms, would look for direction in diplomatic affairs. Even North Korea, in open rebellion in the international scene, was in open rebellion against the USA.
That's no longer the case. With the inexorable growth of the BRI, the BRICS+ integration proceeding apace, US blunders over the past 20 years culminating in the absolutely disastrous one-two of the retreat from Afghanistan and the start of the war in the Ukraine, and the master-stroke of the re-integration of Syria into the Middle East, China has now taken that place. Even the USA now applies to China as a suppliant, hoping for favour. USG has maintained its vassals in Europe, but even they recognize the change - see Scholz' and Macron's recent missions to China.
Well the US just blundered checkmate. Kh-47 Kinzhal to DC#
Yep. Very clearly has the 'balance of power'. That's game, set and match. They are the man. What's happening now in Ukraine, in Europe is at the very least being allowed by China and more probably to some degree of other being directed by them.
NATO response is heavily dependent on UN support. If China, and obviously Russia veto a US proposal for intervention it will leave NATO without international support.
China already has a lot of pull in the UN, NATO would effectively be left to fight Russia while China and the unaligned countries simply profit heavily. It'd be total disaster for the US.
Not sure if NATO can intervene as long as China remains neutral. They'd just be degrading their own capabilities while China grows stronger, and that's where the real fight is, with China.
Think tanks and technocrats have been complaining the war is taking too long and prevents the US and NATO from pivoting to China.
Unless the fallout from ZNPP somehow finds its way to Washington, it won't matter. Europe and Ukraine both are a sacrifice thst the United States is willing to make.
Maybe. One thing seems certain given what we have seen to date - Washington never considers the consequences of its actions, in particular the law of unintended consequences.
Everything they do always backfires on them.
Could be dramatic? 🤣
I think #1 is a "don't care" for Elensky. Blows east, yay, kill Russians, blows west, yay, told ya NATO.
If more proof were needed that the coup attempt was prepared in Ukraine. After Putin's speech, the madness of the planned disinformation campaign on social networks and texts in the press also prepared like the article by nuts Anne Applebaum, who must be foaming at the mouth today. And in the daily update of the Russian war reporter Marat Khairullin, today the first words were also to confirm how it was clear that the AFU was prepared to take advantage of any benefit or disorientation of the Russian forces at the front.
They are desperate and play the last cards one after the other more and more desperate. Militarily, Ukraine has already crossed the line of collapse and the new recruits are cannon fodder. There is no point in continuing to talk about the "counter-offensive" that was born a failure. Ukraine's problem today is the ability to oppose any major offensive maneuver by Russia! Which for now remains more committed to destroying any capacity of the Ukrainian forces and then we'll see. I, for one, never noticed any interest from the Russian forces in crossing the Dnieper. Where I think that Russia bets more on the neutrality of the territory than on taking a territory in an open field up to the border of the NATO countries. But obviously it must depend on the dynamics of the conflict itself.
As for the ZNPP it is an objective of Ukraine since the Russian forces occupied the Central. And why? Because it is the only real underwaffe to blackmail Russia. All other NPP are further away from Russian territory. Already what they plan to do, I don't know. But from psychopaths we should always expect the worst! Very sincerely. I hope that Russia is very attentive. Nor is it easy to detonate a nuclear disaster without leaving a trace. Any missile will always leave a trail.
'counter offensive' was always a misnomer and use of it displays either stupidity or laziness or secret intent to promote the Nazi agenda.
For the truth is, of course, that it is a 'continue offensive'.
What else can you call it when you're looking at armies stalled in the midst of an offensive they began in 2014 to occupy and take the whole of the Donbas?
And the 'counter offensive' the allies put up still hasn't managed to get them out?
Is this nitpicking semantic rubbish I am talking?
I think not.
Here is a highly sophisticated war of propaganda which is costing nations their wealth and future and has taken upward of half a million lives already: and all predicated in the public mind on the belief that 'Russia has invaded Ukraine and Ukraine is fighting back'.
So the public funds the war.
But Russia invaded Ukraine for how long? A couple of weeks or a couple of months? I don't know. Not long. And then retired behind the Donbas lines to help the Donbas people and has been there ever since
There are NO Russian boots on the ground in Ukraine where they have not been invited.
So: you either understand what I'm saying or you don't and I can't persuade you but it is a fundamental point of enormous significance to my mind:
This is no 'counter offensive' it is 'continued offensive' with the aim of completing the invasion and possession of the Donbas in order that they might effect ethnic cleansing there.
And then move on to Crimea to do the same thing.
And in their wild imaginings, with the help of USA and NATO move on to Russia itself and do the same there.
That is the stark simply reality that NO ONE seems to want to tell the people.
So the sick charade rolls on.
It's both worse and simpler than that.
A counter-offensive is an action taken wherein the troops sally forth to stop an ongoing offensive in its tracks and force it to end before achieving its goals. It is, at most, operational in scope.
An offensive is an attempt by the party with initiative to gain progress toward its strategic war aims.
This is, and always has been, a Ukrainian offensive.
I never understood the continued use of the term “counter-offensive” myself.
Agree. There’s no such thing as a counter-offensive. Thierry Meyssan analyses this very well.
Military literature prefers to speak of a counter-attack rather than a counter-offensive. A counter-attack consists in taking advantage of the enemy’s momentary weaknesses to launch an assault.
Choosing the term "counter-offensive" is not neutral. It’s a communication device suggesting that the Russians have launched an "offensive" to seize Ukraine. In fact, they fought at the capital’s northern airport before withdrawing.
In reality, the Russians have never attempted to take Kiev and have no intention of invading Ukraine. That’s what their president, Vladimir Putin, said in the first week of his "special operation". Taking a military airport, even one north of Kiev, is just a battle to give the Russians air superiority. It does not indicate that they intended to take the capital.
The term "special operation" is not neutral either. Moscow is stressing that it is not waging a war of invasion, but is implementing its "responsibility to protect" the populations of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblates, who had officially been the targets of a punitive operation by Kiev, since 2014.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article219514.html
The West has swallowed every lie the Kyiv regime produced since the Maidan in 2014, with only one exception: the rocket killing two farmers in Poland, which the war hawks wanted to use to trigger Art. 5. Even though Zelensky continued to insist that it was a Russian rocket, the adults quickly intervened to stop the escalation. Zelensky may find that the West won't accept any ZNPP false flag to trigger Art. 5. This could finally doom the Kyiv regime, if the West had to admit that the Ukrainians did it. Maybe it's just one lie to many, one false flag too many, that could bring down the card house of lies.
If the malignant Nazretards of NATO invoke Article 5, they sign their own death warrant. I can't put it past them because they are bat shit crazy.
Zelensky and co decide absolutely NOTHING, anglos are 100 % in charge they organize all attacks (why it always fails), false flags etc..
Regarding the rocket in Lubelskie województwo, I understand that the Polish government wanted to blame Russia but didn't do a good job controlling release of the pictures.
Also, no point for NATO to get involved at that time, as there were still plenty of Ukrainian bodies left to soak up bullets.
There should be a fine for anyone posting online the video of that thing that is supposed to be Khokhol's head of military intelligence! It's really scary! Not even on Halloween!
It's unlikely that the "coup" was a huge ultra machiavellian mother of all mole hunts, but we'll see.
Filatov is so fed up with the whole thing he posted this on his tg:
"For Prigozhin and Shoigu in an eternal ban, fuck)))
Friends, attention.
Non-friends and admirers of Shoigu/Prigozhin, go to hell with the replies! Zadolbali.
For those who seek the truth, open the SparkInterfax program and start sifting through Prigozhin's firms and their sources of wealth. Find there contracts and interweaving with the RF Ministry of Defense, as well as other interesting logical connections. Who started shooting at those from whom he fed? I?
You can also watch Shoigu there, with his relatives.
"Putin's Chef" is not my title. Whose order did Prigozhin disobey?
Now a new rule.
Offenders read carefully!
Any mention of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner in the channel bot and you are going to be banned. Even if you donated 100tr, 1 million rubles, I don't care. Even if you are a cool and smart subscriber who made you happy with ideas - go to the Wagner Center (which, by the way, was ready to buy ready-made, and not help create something. PR, in general).
I am not a stripper and I am not obliged to please you! You didn't donate to me, for the stupid - donated NOT to ME, YOU DO NOT FEED MY CHILDREN! YOU DON'T BUY ME ANYTHING.
YOU HELP THROUGH ME / helped the 114 Brigade and other units. Reproaching me with your money is stupid. I don't live with them.
My attitude towards private armies is negative. Since the time of the Slavic Corps, if anyone understands. Friends in the ranks of PMC Wagner were and are. With them, in personal communication, I am ready to discuss these topics and have always discussed my opinion.
Why ban? If you are completely stupid, but want to get smarter, then search Yandex for "Olginsky trolls" and you will find it. Answers to "friendly questions" can then very nicely come out in shitty shit.
I have budgets from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the maintenance of trolls and there is no reciprocal srach. You cannot convince me. You don't have enough arguments.
Value your time if you don't value mine. Maybe if there is a vacation for a minor injury (I don’t see any other way to find time, then I’ll torture the stream with answers to stupid questions), otherwise I’m a military man who lives in the fields / locations and I don’t have time for hourly clarifications.
We remember. In the channel bot I see Prigozhin / Shoigu / Wagner - go to the ban."
Even with video of a missile strike on ZNPP, Ukraine can just say it was Russia's missile. That's basically what happened with the dam already.
There was a US warning for Russia not to touch something US has installed in Zaparozje nuclear plants? Pls see below:
US warns Russia not to touch American nuclear technology at Ukrainian nuclear plant
( Note: Natasha Bertrand is a well-known CIA operative )
By Natasha Bertrand - CNN April 19
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/18/politics/us-warns-russia-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/index.html
That's true, that's another piece of the puzzle which I've talked about before. Could be somewhat related to why the West is planning to sabotage ZNPP in a falseflag.
My utterly uninformed guess is a breeder reactor setup, or precursor to one.
The hilarious thing about this guess, and why it fits so well with USG policy, is that Russia would have no need to examine such a thing to understand it. Russian nuclear proliferation technology is ahead of that of the US. (In fact, SOVIET nuclear proliferation technology still is. It's a neglected field in the US.)
Sooo -- how possibly dangerous is the situation?
I dunno. I'm just some guy with an internet connection who likes to read dissident press and other stuff.
If you're asking for a guess? Assuming I'm right about it being breeder technology that USG doesn't want Russia to touch, ultimately not really. The Atomic Commission knows full well that Russia knows more about isotope promotion and consequent reactor design than they do, and while the technology can provide nuclear materials, it can't be simply turned into a weapon.
Thanks
The quickly aborted and shelved Prigozhin's Gambit was quite likely due to the flash-in-the-pan nature of the arc. A quick boost in ratings, likely just before selling advertising, before returning to the classic military programming. The audience for the SMO Show certainly skews male, so it is an understandable decision. Wars and battles are a stereotypically male fascination, and a clear audience is a benefit to advertisers. There are many other shows running for mass appeal, such as the Oceangate fiasco, echoing the tragedy of the original Titanic.
The shift to the Zaphorozhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) false flag and the threat of the new military action is certainly compelling in light of the Ukranians' demonstrated willingness to take great risks for great potential gains (the counteroffensive perhaps being a necessary political move). It is likely also to help maintain peak ratings for the advertisers, always an important consideration. The use of product placement will likely occur during this operation - hopefully to better effect than the Patriot and Leopard 2 during the Counteroffensive arc.
I rate this arc above-average, a solid 8/10. Though I personally wished to see more of the Russian/Belorussian perspective, I cannot fault the showrunners for returning to a working formula. While the occasional plot twist or change in tone or theme is appreciated, any long-running show usually has a few standbys to fall back on, such as false flag threats. These have recurred in many arcs, so their return now should come as no surprise.