The situation can only be considered urgent as Ukraine has now made their full intentions crystal clear. If before we suspected with high confidence, now it is plain fact. They intend to destroy the ZNPP plant as a last ditch attempt to ‘activate NATO’ by blaming Russia.
Maybe this latest repeat of Russian history will teach Russians that they need to straighten their institutions, army, and state, instead of outsourcing it to robber baron oligarchs. And treat your real friends and allies better, the ones who stood by you; like Chechens, Iranians, Koreans, Syrians, Armenians, Ugandans, Cubans, and the rest who still remember and honour the debt of blood Soviets and modern Russia spilled with them shoulder to shoulder against the American and European powers in their fight for independence. Learn the lessons of the old Soviets, they built a worldwide coalition for a reason.
20,000 draft dodgers in Cherigov Oblast? Hilarious. There are about 300,000 men who could be considered eligible for the draft (18-50) in this Oblast and I am sure a huge number of those would be unfit for duty in one way or another. So, in other words, something close to 10% of all men fit for military service are hiding and this before the war become pretty obviously hopeless and during a time when general morale was much higher.
One can imagine how poorly things will go for the Uke authorities as they try to press-gang an increasingly desperate and disillusioned populace into the meat grinder.
Regarding the false flag, I noticed a few things in addition to what you mentioned.
1. Russia has not just put the ZNPP in cold shutdown. If they have been anticipating such an attack, they may have been busy removing all nuclear material from the site for the past year.
2. If both Budanov and Zelensky gave two videos about it each, it is probably within days or weeks of being deployed.
3. I doubt that Ukraine's SBU will use a plan that depends on their capture of the ZNPP, due to their multiple prior failures to do so. They either have a dirty bomb already built, or they have been given a tactical nuclear weapon by their sponsors to use for this purpose. If they use a dirty bomb, they only need to detonate it within a mile or two of the ZNPP to give the appearance of a radiation leak at the plant. Also, note that the US Senate resolution about this used the terminology "radiation leak". This suggests the false flag goes all the way to the top and certain members of the US Senate are involved in preparing for it. Also note that the US President and his staff gave multiple warnings against Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine last September. This is similar to how they warned Assad prior to issuing contracts to PMC's to deploy chemical false flags on Syrian territory to be blamed on Assad.
4. An alternative way to frame Russia is to put out an irresistible target for a zircon strike anywhere on Ukrainian held territory, with a nuclear weapon stored nearby. Cameras will be set up from a mile away to capture whatever happens there on film. When the zircon hits the target, detonate the nuclear weapon remotely. Catch it all on camera, and accuse Russia of using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine.
#4 seems more likely to me because of the difficulties with #3. Alternatively, they can also destroy one of the other working nuclear power plants deep in Ukrainian territory and make all the same propaganda claims.
Conclusion, there will definitely be some kind of radiological false flag to try to deny Russia victory. Since Ukrainian defeat seems to be getting close, we are now in the window for such an event, June to October of 2023. They may have plan A and B so that if they cannot capture the ZNPP, they might do it to another NPP, or they might fake a nuclear weapon use on Ukrainian soil to blame Russia. But if they have such a small nuclear weapon in their hands, they will almost certainly try to devise a way to use it on the Russian Army while blaming the Russians for it. Make it appear that Russia nuked their own army by mistake or something similar.
For example, if they could make it appear that Russia accidentally nuked the city of Donetsk, the pain, horror, confusion, and outrage in Russia would create chaos.
So much in this. You’ve done a masterful job running the emotional gamut from the nuclear concern to tying it up with the patriotism of the people. In between was pertinent battlefield information. You keep outdoing yourself.
It goes without saying they are going to try and destroy the power plants. But the problem with that plan is even if nato jumps in, they cant win and who may join Russia's side if that happens is a factor they cant foresee as Everyone hates nato.
My 10 cents on ZNPP attack - 4 Problems for Kiev and NATO:
#1 - prevailing winds - they aren't heading East. There would be a high risk of contamination to western Europe.
#2 - lack of surprise: Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of a surprise attack anymore. The Kremlin would have presumably gamed out this nightmarish scenario from every possible angle, and prepared for it.
#3 - China : if Kiev/NATO follow through with such an insane plan (they probably will, I agree), I think China gets involved, on Russia's side. This is the last thing NATO wants or needs (and is unlikely to be a military intervention btw).
#4 - Russian response : could be dramatic, unexpected and lethal. Don't Poke the Bear.
If more proof were needed that the coup attempt was prepared in Ukraine. After Putin's speech, the madness of the planned disinformation campaign on social networks and texts in the press also prepared like the article by nuts Anne Applebaum, who must be foaming at the mouth today. And in the daily update of the Russian war reporter Marat Khairullin, today the first words were also to confirm how it was clear that the AFU was prepared to take advantage of any benefit or disorientation of the Russian forces at the front.
They are desperate and play the last cards one after the other more and more desperate. Militarily, Ukraine has already crossed the line of collapse and the new recruits are cannon fodder. There is no point in continuing to talk about the "counter-offensive" that was born a failure. Ukraine's problem today is the ability to oppose any major offensive maneuver by Russia! Which for now remains more committed to destroying any capacity of the Ukrainian forces and then we'll see. I, for one, never noticed any interest from the Russian forces in crossing the Dnieper. Where I think that Russia bets more on the neutrality of the territory than on taking a territory in an open field up to the border of the NATO countries. But obviously it must depend on the dynamics of the conflict itself.
As for the ZNPP it is an objective of Ukraine since the Russian forces occupied the Central. And why? Because it is the only real underwaffe to blackmail Russia. All other NPP are further away from Russian territory. Already what they plan to do, I don't know. But from psychopaths we should always expect the worst! Very sincerely. I hope that Russia is very attentive. Nor is it easy to detonate a nuclear disaster without leaving a trace. Any missile will always leave a trail.
The West has swallowed every lie the Kyiv regime produced since the Maidan in 2014, with only one exception: the rocket killing two farmers in Poland, which the war hawks wanted to use to trigger Art. 5. Even though Zelensky continued to insist that it was a Russian rocket, the adults quickly intervened to stop the escalation. Zelensky may find that the West won't accept any ZNPP false flag to trigger Art. 5. This could finally doom the Kyiv regime, if the West had to admit that the Ukrainians did it. Maybe it's just one lie to many, one false flag too many, that could bring down the card house of lies.
There should be a fine for anyone posting online the video of that thing that is supposed to be Khokhol's head of military intelligence! It's really scary! Not even on Halloween!
It's unlikely that the "coup" was a huge ultra machiavellian mother of all mole hunts, but we'll see.
Filatov is so fed up with the whole thing he posted this on his tg:
"For Prigozhin and Shoigu in an eternal ban, fuck)))
Friends, attention.
Non-friends and admirers of Shoigu/Prigozhin, go to hell with the replies! Zadolbali.
For those who seek the truth, open the SparkInterfax program and start sifting through Prigozhin's firms and their sources of wealth. Find there contracts and interweaving with the RF Ministry of Defense, as well as other interesting logical connections. Who started shooting at those from whom he fed? I?
You can also watch Shoigu there, with his relatives.
"Putin's Chef" is not my title. Whose order did Prigozhin disobey?
Now a new rule.
Offenders read carefully!
Any mention of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner in the channel bot and you are going to be banned. Even if you donated 100tr, 1 million rubles, I don't care. Even if you are a cool and smart subscriber who made you happy with ideas - go to the Wagner Center (which, by the way, was ready to buy ready-made, and not help create something. PR, in general).
I am not a stripper and I am not obliged to please you! You didn't donate to me, for the stupid - donated NOT to ME, YOU DO NOT FEED MY CHILDREN! YOU DON'T BUY ME ANYTHING.
YOU HELP THROUGH ME / helped the 114 Brigade and other units. Reproaching me with your money is stupid. I don't live with them.
My attitude towards private armies is negative. Since the time of the Slavic Corps, if anyone understands. Friends in the ranks of PMC Wagner were and are. With them, in personal communication, I am ready to discuss these topics and have always discussed my opinion.
Why ban? If you are completely stupid, but want to get smarter, then search Yandex for "Olginsky trolls" and you will find it. Answers to "friendly questions" can then very nicely come out in shitty shit.
I have budgets from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the maintenance of trolls and there is no reciprocal srach. You cannot convince me. You don't have enough arguments.
Value your time if you don't value mine. Maybe if there is a vacation for a minor injury (I don’t see any other way to find time, then I’ll torture the stream with answers to stupid questions), otherwise I’m a military man who lives in the fields / locations and I don’t have time for hourly clarifications.
We remember. In the channel bot I see Prigozhin / Shoigu / Wagner - go to the ban."
The quickly aborted and shelved Prigozhin's Gambit was quite likely due to the flash-in-the-pan nature of the arc. A quick boost in ratings, likely just before selling advertising, before returning to the classic military programming. The audience for the SMO Show certainly skews male, so it is an understandable decision. Wars and battles are a stereotypically male fascination, and a clear audience is a benefit to advertisers. There are many other shows running for mass appeal, such as the Oceangate fiasco, echoing the tragedy of the original Titanic.
The shift to the Zaphorozhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) false flag and the threat of the new military action is certainly compelling in light of the Ukranians' demonstrated willingness to take great risks for great potential gains (the counteroffensive perhaps being a necessary political move). It is likely also to help maintain peak ratings for the advertisers, always an important consideration. The use of product placement will likely occur during this operation - hopefully to better effect than the Patriot and Leopard 2 during the Counteroffensive arc.
I rate this arc above-average, a solid 8/10. Though I personally wished to see more of the Russian/Belorussian perspective, I cannot fault the showrunners for returning to a working formula. While the occasional plot twist or change in tone or theme is appreciated, any long-running show usually has a few standbys to fall back on, such as false flag threats. These have recurred in many arcs, so their return now should come as no surprise.
Maybe this latest repeat of Russian history will teach Russians that they need to straighten their institutions, army, and state, instead of outsourcing it to robber baron oligarchs. And treat your real friends and allies better, the ones who stood by you; like Chechens, Iranians, Koreans, Syrians, Armenians, Ugandans, Cubans, and the rest who still remember and honour the debt of blood Soviets and modern Russia spilled with them shoulder to shoulder against the American and European powers in their fight for independence. Learn the lessons of the old Soviets, they built a worldwide coalition for a reason.
20,000 draft dodgers in Cherigov Oblast? Hilarious. There are about 300,000 men who could be considered eligible for the draft (18-50) in this Oblast and I am sure a huge number of those would be unfit for duty in one way or another. So, in other words, something close to 10% of all men fit for military service are hiding and this before the war become pretty obviously hopeless and during a time when general morale was much higher.
One can imagine how poorly things will go for the Uke authorities as they try to press-gang an increasingly desperate and disillusioned populace into the meat grinder.
(edit for spelling)
First Nordstream, then Nova Kakhova Dam and next the NPP. NATO is a cancer and Suicide Pill for the World.
Regarding the false flag, I noticed a few things in addition to what you mentioned.
1. Russia has not just put the ZNPP in cold shutdown. If they have been anticipating such an attack, they may have been busy removing all nuclear material from the site for the past year.
2. If both Budanov and Zelensky gave two videos about it each, it is probably within days or weeks of being deployed.
3. I doubt that Ukraine's SBU will use a plan that depends on their capture of the ZNPP, due to their multiple prior failures to do so. They either have a dirty bomb already built, or they have been given a tactical nuclear weapon by their sponsors to use for this purpose. If they use a dirty bomb, they only need to detonate it within a mile or two of the ZNPP to give the appearance of a radiation leak at the plant. Also, note that the US Senate resolution about this used the terminology "radiation leak". This suggests the false flag goes all the way to the top and certain members of the US Senate are involved in preparing for it. Also note that the US President and his staff gave multiple warnings against Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine last September. This is similar to how they warned Assad prior to issuing contracts to PMC's to deploy chemical false flags on Syrian territory to be blamed on Assad.
4. An alternative way to frame Russia is to put out an irresistible target for a zircon strike anywhere on Ukrainian held territory, with a nuclear weapon stored nearby. Cameras will be set up from a mile away to capture whatever happens there on film. When the zircon hits the target, detonate the nuclear weapon remotely. Catch it all on camera, and accuse Russia of using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine.
#4 seems more likely to me because of the difficulties with #3. Alternatively, they can also destroy one of the other working nuclear power plants deep in Ukrainian territory and make all the same propaganda claims.
Conclusion, there will definitely be some kind of radiological false flag to try to deny Russia victory. Since Ukrainian defeat seems to be getting close, we are now in the window for such an event, June to October of 2023. They may have plan A and B so that if they cannot capture the ZNPP, they might do it to another NPP, or they might fake a nuclear weapon use on Ukrainian soil to blame Russia. But if they have such a small nuclear weapon in their hands, they will almost certainly try to devise a way to use it on the Russian Army while blaming the Russians for it. Make it appear that Russia nuked their own army by mistake or something similar.
For example, if they could make it appear that Russia accidentally nuked the city of Donetsk, the pain, horror, confusion, and outrage in Russia would create chaos.
I don’t get it. Three days ago, the Badonov video was a deep fake. Now it’s legit?? https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-62123-russia-re-orients-to?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-bec9bd53-e084-474b-83c0-aa08b231a132
So much in this. You’ve done a masterful job running the emotional gamut from the nuclear concern to tying it up with the patriotism of the people. In between was pertinent battlefield information. You keep outdoing yourself.
It goes without saying they are going to try and destroy the power plants. But the problem with that plan is even if nato jumps in, they cant win and who may join Russia's side if that happens is a factor they cant foresee as Everyone hates nato.
Any news confirming the loss of Russian air assets by Wagner?
Thank you Simplicius for your tireless efforts.
My 10 cents on ZNPP attack - 4 Problems for Kiev and NATO:
#1 - prevailing winds - they aren't heading East. There would be a high risk of contamination to western Europe.
#2 - lack of surprise: Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of a surprise attack anymore. The Kremlin would have presumably gamed out this nightmarish scenario from every possible angle, and prepared for it.
#3 - China : if Kiev/NATO follow through with such an insane plan (they probably will, I agree), I think China gets involved, on Russia's side. This is the last thing NATO wants or needs (and is unlikely to be a military intervention btw).
#4 - Russian response : could be dramatic, unexpected and lethal. Don't Poke the Bear.
If more proof were needed that the coup attempt was prepared in Ukraine. After Putin's speech, the madness of the planned disinformation campaign on social networks and texts in the press also prepared like the article by nuts Anne Applebaum, who must be foaming at the mouth today. And in the daily update of the Russian war reporter Marat Khairullin, today the first words were also to confirm how it was clear that the AFU was prepared to take advantage of any benefit or disorientation of the Russian forces at the front.
They are desperate and play the last cards one after the other more and more desperate. Militarily, Ukraine has already crossed the line of collapse and the new recruits are cannon fodder. There is no point in continuing to talk about the "counter-offensive" that was born a failure. Ukraine's problem today is the ability to oppose any major offensive maneuver by Russia! Which for now remains more committed to destroying any capacity of the Ukrainian forces and then we'll see. I, for one, never noticed any interest from the Russian forces in crossing the Dnieper. Where I think that Russia bets more on the neutrality of the territory than on taking a territory in an open field up to the border of the NATO countries. But obviously it must depend on the dynamics of the conflict itself.
As for the ZNPP it is an objective of Ukraine since the Russian forces occupied the Central. And why? Because it is the only real underwaffe to blackmail Russia. All other NPP are further away from Russian territory. Already what they plan to do, I don't know. But from psychopaths we should always expect the worst! Very sincerely. I hope that Russia is very attentive. Nor is it easy to detonate a nuclear disaster without leaving a trace. Any missile will always leave a trail.
The West has swallowed every lie the Kyiv regime produced since the Maidan in 2014, with only one exception: the rocket killing two farmers in Poland, which the war hawks wanted to use to trigger Art. 5. Even though Zelensky continued to insist that it was a Russian rocket, the adults quickly intervened to stop the escalation. Zelensky may find that the West won't accept any ZNPP false flag to trigger Art. 5. This could finally doom the Kyiv regime, if the West had to admit that the Ukrainians did it. Maybe it's just one lie to many, one false flag too many, that could bring down the card house of lies.
There should be a fine for anyone posting online the video of that thing that is supposed to be Khokhol's head of military intelligence! It's really scary! Not even on Halloween!
It's unlikely that the "coup" was a huge ultra machiavellian mother of all mole hunts, but we'll see.
Filatov is so fed up with the whole thing he posted this on his tg:
"For Prigozhin and Shoigu in an eternal ban, fuck)))
Friends, attention.
Non-friends and admirers of Shoigu/Prigozhin, go to hell with the replies! Zadolbali.
For those who seek the truth, open the SparkInterfax program and start sifting through Prigozhin's firms and their sources of wealth. Find there contracts and interweaving with the RF Ministry of Defense, as well as other interesting logical connections. Who started shooting at those from whom he fed? I?
You can also watch Shoigu there, with his relatives.
"Putin's Chef" is not my title. Whose order did Prigozhin disobey?
Now a new rule.
Offenders read carefully!
Any mention of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner in the channel bot and you are going to be banned. Even if you donated 100tr, 1 million rubles, I don't care. Even if you are a cool and smart subscriber who made you happy with ideas - go to the Wagner Center (which, by the way, was ready to buy ready-made, and not help create something. PR, in general).
I am not a stripper and I am not obliged to please you! You didn't donate to me, for the stupid - donated NOT to ME, YOU DO NOT FEED MY CHILDREN! YOU DON'T BUY ME ANYTHING.
YOU HELP THROUGH ME / helped the 114 Brigade and other units. Reproaching me with your money is stupid. I don't live with them.
My attitude towards private armies is negative. Since the time of the Slavic Corps, if anyone understands. Friends in the ranks of PMC Wagner were and are. With them, in personal communication, I am ready to discuss these topics and have always discussed my opinion.
Why ban? If you are completely stupid, but want to get smarter, then search Yandex for "Olginsky trolls" and you will find it. Answers to "friendly questions" can then very nicely come out in shitty shit.
I have budgets from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the maintenance of trolls and there is no reciprocal srach. You cannot convince me. You don't have enough arguments.
Value your time if you don't value mine. Maybe if there is a vacation for a minor injury (I don’t see any other way to find time, then I’ll torture the stream with answers to stupid questions), otherwise I’m a military man who lives in the fields / locations and I don’t have time for hourly clarifications.
We remember. In the channel bot I see Prigozhin / Shoigu / Wagner - go to the ban."
Even with video of a missile strike on ZNPP, Ukraine can just say it was Russia's missile. That's basically what happened with the dam already.
There was a US warning for Russia not to touch something US has installed in Zaparozje nuclear plants? Pls see below:
US warns Russia not to touch American nuclear technology at Ukrainian nuclear plant
( Note: Natasha Bertrand is a well-known CIA operative )
By Natasha Bertrand - CNN April 19
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/18/politics/us-warns-russia-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/index.html
The quickly aborted and shelved Prigozhin's Gambit was quite likely due to the flash-in-the-pan nature of the arc. A quick boost in ratings, likely just before selling advertising, before returning to the classic military programming. The audience for the SMO Show certainly skews male, so it is an understandable decision. Wars and battles are a stereotypically male fascination, and a clear audience is a benefit to advertisers. There are many other shows running for mass appeal, such as the Oceangate fiasco, echoing the tragedy of the original Titanic.
The shift to the Zaphorozhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) false flag and the threat of the new military action is certainly compelling in light of the Ukranians' demonstrated willingness to take great risks for great potential gains (the counteroffensive perhaps being a necessary political move). It is likely also to help maintain peak ratings for the advertisers, always an important consideration. The use of product placement will likely occur during this operation - hopefully to better effect than the Patriot and Leopard 2 during the Counteroffensive arc.
I rate this arc above-average, a solid 8/10. Though I personally wished to see more of the Russian/Belorussian perspective, I cannot fault the showrunners for returning to a working formula. While the occasional plot twist or change in tone or theme is appreciated, any long-running show usually has a few standbys to fall back on, such as false flag threats. These have recurred in many arcs, so their return now should come as no surprise.