Let’s talk about Ukraine’s new terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge before diving into other updates. Why does Putin specifically call it a terrorist attack? Because, as he states, the Kerch Bridge is actually no longer used for military supplies and has not been for many months, and is therefore exclusively a civilian corridor. This
Great expose Simplicius, the West need to feel the force of Russia’s power, militarily and economic, kill the grain deal, establish direct supply Russia’s global allies reliant upon grain, I’m certain Lavrov’s ministry will be attending to the same, meanwhile I pray Russia take full retribution against the arseholes who perpetrate this in the name of statehood, Zaluzhny, Kuleba, the cross dressing pervert Zelinsky, and Budunov with their U.S and U.K handler’s, the Spy bum chum’s all deserve to shake hands and have a direct face to face introduction with Mr Kinzhal… pray it happens… soonest, evil filth they are.
Yes, and why not ship grain via Iran / China? I'm talking about exports to friendly countries like Africa. As the west's influence wanes and new multilateral organizations come into existence escape/travel options will diminish for the soon to be hunted war criminals.
Such lines didn't exist because they weaken national security. Railroads can be used to support an invasion. NATO has forced these three nations to overcome their traditional fears in face of a greater and imminent threat. This is precisely as predicted by George Orwell in his novel 1984.
A fossil fuel pipeline from Russia to China is under construction.
I’ve stated my opinion here several times that Russia has been doing this wrong with their “slow grind” approach. They needed to put on the Hulk Hands and SMASH a year ago.
You are not wrong, I’d also love to include the English, French and German intelligence and Foreign Affairs Ministries together Nuland and Blinkins State Dept, these people truly are despotic, evil, I’ve written via YouTube and Sub Stack many opinions and essays detailing why and more latterly the actions needed undertaken by citizens… Two recent examples follow
Despite his brilliant mind it is truly sad that well meaning and good intentioned people like Jeffrey Sachs are so naive, it is a naivety borne of ignorance as to the cynical realities of those using them to achieve an ulterior means, to fulfil they’re obscene agenda, an agenda based entirely upon hubris and bellicosity, upon arrogance and especially of a sense of entitlement and a self appointed righteousness as to that which they pursue without recourse to any sense of true humility or indeed of humanity.
Like many I have disparaged Jeffrey Sachs for his role in fomenting and aiding the economic hardships that befell many nations around the globe with which he was involved on behalf of others, however I have since listening to many of his interviews, having read many of his authored articles now find myself firmly of the view that he was naive and in essence that naivety was seized upon and used by those with ulterior motives to destabilise plunder and pillage.
Add to the above that every single one of us is entitled to forgiveness, to a second chance and that when Sach’s alleged misdemeanour’s are measured against those who actually perpetrated the mess then and now that his alleged sins are nothing in comparison, hence I have changed my thinking and past public views espoused about this man, seemingly a lone voice in a dark wilderness endeavouring to bring true light to the darkness he and we along with him find ourselves travelling within and presently dealing with, as such Ad as written we owe those and many such, compassion, the very same we receive and expect to be given from others, afterall, when asked how many times must I forgive my brother, 7x 7 times?
The response given was nay, not 7 x 7 but 70 x 7 in that sense, I believe we know that our saviour Jesus Christ was truly correct in his response to his disciples who had asked the question, it therefore behoves us to exercise compassion and forgiveness for something as simple as recognising that someone acted out of naivety and definitely did not conduct themselves nor did act it seems to me with any aforethought of malice, unlike these neocons who in essence by their deeds and actions can be said to act n true evil, the very worst kind, hence in comparison Sach’s now in my view is entitled to forgiveness for any role he unwittingly played in past events, after all and as we know, the personal decisions taken by any individuals resulting from his actions cannot in any way be construed as being Sach’s responsibility, we are, afterall, ultimately responsible and will be adjudged for our own decisions made, hence the aftermath and consequences of Sach’s decisions cannot be attributed to him such as the decisions taken individually that resulted in the many suicides, drugs, alcoholism, wife bashing, homelessness, etc… that resulted, whilst acknowledged as being horrific they are not nor can be blamed on Sach’s…. D to do so excuses a real lack of self responsibility for one’s owns deeds and actions that impact self and those closest to you or that you have a responsibility to protect, it really, when looked at in the cold light of day, is that simple…
Brezinski, Kagan, Nuland, Wolfowitz and the rest of this disgusting group of filth, of evil, are responsible for the death, injury, homelessness, war, regime change, coup, assassinations of global leaders, the installation of puppets, dictators and other despots that having met in secret for so long, sworn they’re ridiculous oaths to each other, to the evil they serve, are undoubtedly responsible for the mess the World finds itself dealing with, confronting and likely to be dealing with.
This odious group of people, irrespective of how they see themselves, of their arrogance, hubris, belligerence and self centred entitlement represent the very dregs of humanity, of all society.
They are to be called out, vilified, denigrated, derided and maligned at every single opportunity, none of these neocon arseholes should ever be given the opportunity to rest, to merely sit back and dwell upon the heathen career they chose, what they seemingly forget is that we outnumber them, always will and as a consequence we, us, me, you, your loved ones, our friends and family, outnumber them and as noted always will, as such we as aforementioned hold the true, real and everlasting power, the ultimate power therefore lies in our hands, it remains in that respect for us to decide as to what we chose to do with it, how will we exercise the power we hold?
Soft or hard, are we simply to continue to sit back and allow the neocon filth and their wealthy benefactors including the lobbyists and politicians be they elected or appointed that serve them instead of we, us, me, you, your loved ones, our friends and family, our neighbors, communities and nation, are we to allow them to get away with everything or are we too, in exercising that power to truly demand they be held to account, called to account for all they have done…
I can say especially as applies in the U.S, that thank the Lord for the fact the founding fathers who created and signed your Constitution recognising the risk to the Republic that power and pursuit of wealth through greed and avarice would engender, actually wrote the escape clause from such tyranny within the Constitution, providing the release that ordinary Americans enjoined the like mined are able to indulge, it is enshrined within that marvellous template of freedom, unless it is understood, exercised and used to clean out from amongst you those who perpetuate this filth and evil, then sadly you will not only loses the greatest nation that was or was to be, but worse you will be adjudged as being complicit in the machinations of evil that has taken over your nation and your lives… blame then only yourselves, your own indifference and cowardice… time to decide people, no more fence sitting awaiting the cavalry… there is no cavalry, no one riding to your rescue, only you and as stated others like you can retrieve this descent of your nation into the abyss, literally, and as has been oft repeated in scripture, it would appear and seem on a number of actualities that the end is truly nigh… time to decide and set to doing what you know is needed!
The West should feel grateful that Russia has played the gentleman in this war for as long as they have yet they seem to be doing all they can to get Putin to take the gloves off.
I would rather see a a Russian formal declaration of war against Ukraine. That would put an end to most of the wests dirty games.They would have to pull out of Ukraine or formally become enemy combatants and we've all seen what a bunch of chickenshit cowards western military and political leaders are.Mercenaries would officially become war criminals and anyone sending war material to Ukraine subject to attack. They would finally abandon Ukraine with shit talk about negotiations and "NATO membership after the war" ..But there wont be any Ukraine after the war. ..
Once the West has exhausted the stock of obsolete arms being "sold" to the Ukranians then support will drop like a rock. It's not really a sale because Ukraine will never be able to pay. Instead the US residents pay via higher prices for essential goods.
Such sabotage is an attempt to induce Russia to occupy more of Ukraine to prevent it's being used to launch attacks. A complete occupation of the coast would cause water-borne drones to dry up.
The Ukraine Lend-Lease Act requires Ukraine to re-pay either through monetary means or the use of American contractors to help reconstruct a country, stimulating the loans back into the U.S. economy. For example, it took Britain and Russia several decades to pay back their lease from WW2. The repayment already began when Blackrock (private corp) bought Ukrainian land. Backroom deals made by Zelensky (or any other puppet) means the Western Oligarch's win and the Ukrainian people lose.
Even before the war Ukraine was arguably the poorest nation (per capita) in Europe. (Neighboring Moldova was the contender.) Now it's much worse. Then there will be rebuilding costs, mounting every day, and the severe loss of population, mostly through emigration. I don't see how they will even keep up on the interest payments. I see it as a buy-and-enslave program. The true goal is insiders getting rich on kickbacks and to "weaken Russia" through endless war, not return on investment. I suppose the USA taxpayer will guarantee the "investments," paying for the war in sharply increased costs for basic necessities.
Colonel MacGregor said 80% of the tax base is in the now Russian-annexed areas. I cannot believe that but would believe that it is considerable chunk.
I don't have any figures nor have I done any calculations, but the situation is so dire it doesn't seem necessary. Everything is bad bad bad. https://youtu.be/1ahT2XhsC0c
Jul 18, 2023·edited Jul 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Because it is a fucking terrorist attack that was aimed directly at civilians which it succeeded in killing. Look, I'm a pretty fair minded guy. In fact if some Iraqis had decided to blow some shit up here in the US while we were invading, occupying and pillaging their country, I'd have to admit to myself that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Russia has invaded Ukraine no matter how any of us wish to slice it, and nations at direct war with one another carry out attacks in each others homelands when they are capable. So this was to be expected, however, since it is directed at civilians and not legitimate military targets it qualifies as terror, full stop. I highly doubt those Iraqis I just hypothesized about would've attacked shopping malls in the USA; rather they'd have attempted to destroy American military infrastructure and hardware.
The Ukrainian terrorist regime needs to be taken down ASAP. And BTW - another bird related analogy - the US government will be more than happy (while pretending to be shocked) when the white nationalist nazi-wannabe chickens come home to roost here in a way that no Arab or Muslim would have been able. Wink wink...they're WHITE!!! And, like the January 6th INNNNNSURRECTION, any such attacks will be used to justify more surveillance powers and more draconian and militarized law enforcement capabilities.
Anyone who thinks that all these weapons that are being diverted into unsavory hands in Ukraine won't make their way back to Western Europe, Mexico, the US or Canada is either willfully ignorant or a fucking moron. Al Qaeda from Mujahideen anyone?
No fuckin shit! I hate Netflix and "militainment" but check out that new docu on AI military drones they have up for the past few weeks. It's Terminator style crap coming our way - and in part precisely because they know they can't recruit as many actual humans as they need to fight their wars anymore. Bring on the killer robot dogs any day now. (which now that I think of it, also look for the Netflix Black Mirror episode titled "Black Metal" scary stuff)
It's nice when you can CGI, but the collective west has to be able to manufacture this stuff, as in resources. China recently stopped access for the US to critical resources used in making CPUs. I expect reality will hit home when guns and butter runs into the financial casino to nowhere.
"China recently stopped access for the US to critical resources used in making CPUs" Really? Is that a fact? I don't think so.
China has created new rules that monitor and regulate the export of specific materials like Germanium and Gallium (funny that those are both named after European territories ;-). But it did not forbid the export, yet. The monitoring and control is strengthened. It is one of the not so subtle warnings to US which will get ignored and regretted by the US-"elites". These are thumbscrews with fine tuning.
Did literal "Nazis", in name or practice, exist when the US adopted that symbol (which is mostly a scavenger bird, btw)? Perhaps the 20th century Nazis adopted it from the US or other source?
Russia has literally been targeting civilians the whole war though. Striking at 3am on a big bridge isn’t targeting civilians it’s aimed to minimise civilian casualties.
You should produce some data on civilian casualties, and then you can compare those to published data on civilian casualties from other recent conflicts.
If the Russian military really were behaving as badly as advertised, it would not be necessary to create so many atrocity tales that turned out to be fake.
If the Russian military were really suffering as many casualties as claimed, it would not be necessary for Ukraine to claim so many victories that turned out to be fake.
Mmm. Did you miss 8 solid years of the Ukie army firing indiscriminate shells into Donetsk? Did you ever see the pictures of the carnage that ensued? Did you know that there was a street named and dedicated to all the children who lost their lives there? More than 500. Once upon a time Wikipedia carried that info, but not any more. Oh, and before I forget, do you understand that those are Ukie war crimes?
countries fight each other. those are the honest, if stupid, people. countries who use other countries as proxies to fight and die for them in made-up wars for the enrichment and advance of the few are cowards, dishonest, criminals.
I actually hadn't thought of that. The Azov refugees that start coming over here after the war ends are going to find themselves in a really awkward situation when the people who support them now start denouncing them later.
Thanks for the support. I'm just going with the flow and don't want to over-exert if there's a lull in the ongoing developments. When things heat up I flow with them, but when there's a ebbing period, I let the situation breathe a bit otherwise the posts start getting redundant saying the same things over and over again. Right now is a bit of a lull period while Ukraine figures out what they want to do next after their massive offensive failure and there hasn't been too many updates to warrant daily rigorous posts, but if it heats up then I'll be on it.
Good. Their "saying the same thing over and over again" has turned me away from many writers. I prefer thoughtful silence to fast previsible response, which ultimately dilutes attention and accuracy. A calculated silence also gives us time to gather information ourselves and get a feel for the situation.
And when the chronicle arrives, ah, it's a pleasure to read, assimilate the new elements and measure our own thoughts against it.
What a hot mess. And Dugin is correct, rabies has no cure and the enemy behind all this is deranged. I wish someone would do something about the deranged soon.
Giddy Up they already have the bridge running again. I really love that part of the story. Crassly killing civilians in a car, not a good story. Karma is on the way for those boys.
I know, crazy thought, but when I watch these videos w/all the woods and tree lines I cannot help but wonder about the ticks. If bombs don't get them Lyme disease will.
"The Deranged" - what an appropriate name for the real enemy!
They are the Black Nobility and their chums the Khazarians who rule NATO with an iron fist.
I liked what Dugin said and smiled wryly at the implied joke:
The reason that rabies has no cure is because its root cause has not been identified!
The same could be said of Lyme's Disease too.
So, as usual in war, we are fed ten tons of propaganda and hype but the truth depends on a thorough understanding of the history of the Rus, particularly before the 10th century.
They may not have Lyme disease like we have in the U.S. and Canada. Lyme is named after an island off the U.S. east coast, where biological experiments were carried out with ticks and other insects. Deer living on the island were infected by the modified ticks, and swam to the mainland, carrying the ticks with them. If this is true (doing this from memory, so it may be hard to confirm), Lyme disease may be largely confined to the North American locale.
They have ticks in Russia and Ukraine, and Lyme disease. Ticks were probably provided by Bill Gates, wouldn't be surprised if he threw in some mosquitos for free.
Beyond the length of the bridge, ability to defend and so forth, a more fundamental issue is that there’s simply no fear of crossing a red line for the very good reason that because there’s been no serious response to anything from NS2, to Darya Dugina, to Kremlin drones, to Belgorad, and now not 1 but 2 attacks on the Kerch bridge. All the key people behind this and all these attacks slept comfortably last night, and will again tonight. Britain in particular continues to pay no price for actions that have been responsible for tens of thousands of dead and wounded Russians. Why on earth would anyone expect them to stop?
They wouldn’t stop if Russia did something kinetically dramatic in response. They would climb the escalation ladder. What else are they going to do? They keep escalating even when they don’t have real skin in the game and could walk away essentially unscathed. What makes anyone think they would refrain from lashing out violently if they were struck in some hugely costly, embarrassing or deadly way?
Maybe. They are just bullies. But maybe not. If they don’t back down, then this whole thing goes sideways in a hurry. I’d prefer not to experience strategic nuclear warfare. In fact, I’d prefer to remain as far from it on the escalation ladder as is possible.
I do not trust any western leader to make rational decisions, especially Joe Biden and most especially Joe Biden in his declining mental state. They are not serious people, and the historical moment they created is way too big for them. I’m pretty thankful that someone’s willing to act like Putin has acted, even when he has every good reason to make sure people fucking around find out. Maybe the best revenge is victory?
I disagree. Had they done something impactful early (and judiciously), the effect would be something other than allowing your opponent to conclude you have no red lines and emboldening them further
thanks simplicius.. excellent coverage on a lot of details... as for the grain deal getting back on track, i can't see it myself... too much water under the bridge.. at some point the gloves have to come off... the west happily sanctions russia a zillion ways to hell and then expects russia to roll over and play along? i can't see it myself... this is all on the west and their sanctions mentality, an obvious form of war that many in the west are unwilling or unable to acknowledge.. i don't think russia gets back on track here at this point...
The advertorial video for the Lancets is unique, or is that very Russian? Here some quotes:
"A super modern enterprise places its machines in the former supermarket. Can you imagine? The smell of potatoes has still been preserved here."
"Here you see how Lansets destroy two S-300 installations at once. The missiles were already in the launch containers, so the fireworks turned out to be noble."
Regards conscription, it worried me when I saw underage teen girls training in a patriotic video. I so hoped that they were going to be Girl Scouts and not future soldiers.
Regards Russian offensive, they learned their lesson when they lost Kharkiv. Now they only take what they can defend whilst weakening the AFU. It may be unpopular amongst action movie lovers but its methodically effective.
Regarding Kharkov - Russian MOD did what any military always does - you devour any territory enemy allows you to devour. What they did was perfectly normal. Forward scouting yada yada. They immediately withdrew when Ukraine started it's attack. Not a single cop of that BARS swat team wich held Kupyansk died.
What were they not expecting was PR backlash. So they haven't learned anything from military standpoint, really. Both moves - "take it all" and "retreat asap" were correct moves.
It’s a big, open (and presumably empty) commercial facility. Seems practical, cost effective and fast.
Being unconcerned with any of those three things is probably why the US is still talking about when it will ramp up ammunition productions and Russia is cracking Star Wars jokes about their Lancet production.
On the "grain deal," it's not a matter of "concessions." Rather, it's all about the fulfillment of "promises." Here's what Putin said at the end of his informal press conference on the 13th:
"Q: The deal expires on July 18. How long are we willing to wait for them to start performing?
"Vladimir Putin: As long as it takes to fulfill the promises made to us."
It's about fulfilling the other half of the deal, rather similar to Minsk where Russia waited patiently while the other side took advantage. The cancellation has nothing to do with the bridge attack. Putin and Team had already made their decision.
Well, that's true insofar as I believe the grain deal actually had effectively stopped functioning as early as June 29th or so. However, there remained some hope/possibility for renewal but as I understand it the bridge attack put the final nail in the coffin and Russia withdrew from the Turkish contact group entirely, though I'm not 100% certain if that had already happened prior to the attack anyway.
Dima, of Military Summary channel asks why attack a civilian bridge when the railroad bridge was nearby.
He says some civilians decided to flee. Some used ferry boats. But others drove on the main military roadway (east of Kherson?) and interrupted supply ops. Therefore he speculates UA might attack those areas to take advantage.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that now allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world."
"For instance, this new Politico article accuses Russia of pulling out of the grain deal on monday, and incredibly does mention the word bridge even once:"
As comprehensive and detailed as your essays are I skip over any typos and go with the information you have been building towards. So far there were 2 typos out of how many words? Sheesh! Well done i say.
Superb rundown. Thank you once again. My first thought after the latest Kersh attack was: Anti-submarine nets. Admittedly I don't know a darn thing about them other than that they've been used extensively in past wars. I was kind of surprised the Russians weren't using them. I will no doubt be quickly put in my place by some astute Navy guy. It is after all the longest bridge in Europe. Dugin is on target: "And behind him is the West"--just in case the Ukrainians run out of imaginative atrocities. The Empire has personified evil for decades, though shielded by tons of lies and propaganda. Confusion and chaos is The Empire's natural milieu. Nothing should surprise us.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that not allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world"
I would just like to add that international food prices are one of the few markets that bleed over into Russia's otherwise isolated economy. Food prices surging would mean that yew, they can sell their grain at higher prices internationally, which is good for the exporters, but it also means that they are more incentivised to divert grain from domestic markets causing food price inflation within Russia. So I would say international prices rising creates winners and losers in Russia, the losers being the general population.
If all the money goes to oligarchs then the people lose. If there is equitable spreading of the gains then the people also win. I have no idea which would occur.
Let's put it this way: If you're a general blue or white collar worker (working/middle class), you're not going to magically get a raise because of excess grain export profits, unless you work in the specific jobs related to grain supply chains. What you're going to see is food prices going up and up and up, which are already quite high, as I understand it.
Also, it doesn't matter if the "gains are spread equitably". Since Russia has minimal imports, and is a net food exporter, that means the available amount of goods is limited, especially since internationally higher prices means more food is going OUT of the country, so there is less food left in the country. So it doesn't matter if you "make more money", there is only so much goods to buy with that money in a closed market like Russia.
Example: If everyone in Russia got a 100% raise, all that would happen is every price would basically double, and your savings would be eroded, because there is no new consumer goods that were created. This is why it's a stupid idea to pump money into an economy. It doesn't matter if the source of the money is the Government or not, the same thing happens.
"Example: If everyone in Russia got a 100% raise, all that would happen is every price would basically double, and your savings would be eroded, because there is no new consumer goods that were created. This is why it's a stupid idea to pump money into an economy. It doesn't matter if the source of the money is the Government or not, the same thing happens".
Incorrect.
There would likely be price inflation, true, as demand would increase.
HOWEVER, crucially, by doubling workers incomes, you would nowhere NEAR double inflation, as wage income is not the only source of income in the economy.
What you would have effectively done is greatly increase the income and wealth of those working, at the expense of those who sit on wealth, own land, own "shares", and other forms of rentierism.
AS LONG AS Welfare benefits (Pensions, Unemployment, Child-care etc) were also raised equally, what has happened is that Inflation has been used to level the wealth gap.
Basic math: if your income has doubled, but inflation hits 50%, you have increased your spending power by ~50%! (Not exactly, but you get the gist of the concept involved).
This, btw, is part of how Norway and the Skandis raised the general living standards from the end of the 19th Century onwards, until they had the highest general SoL in the world. Distributing money downwards, and the wealthy taking the hit. Cooperative ownership. High welfare and benefits, high taxes on the wealthy who merely sit on money and pocket more, or exploit others to add to their ill-gotten gains.
Extremely few people get "rich" entirely through their own hard work. Artists and sportspeople. Stealing other people's labour is not YOUR hard work - it is wage-slavery, and exploitation.
Good Govts CAN use inflation for noble ends - if you think ENDING poverty rather than INCREASING it is indeed noble. (For the record, I do.)
Yes, but those who sit on wealth rarely store it in cold hard cash. They have real estate, and own companies, they have investment portfolios, etc., all of which are mostly unaffected by inflation, as their value is independent of the amount of money circulating.
If you live off of stock dividends or other form of asset-based income, as most of the ultra-rich you refer to do, your wealth isn't crushed by inflation the way you say it would. It's usually the middle and working class who get crushed by inflation. The middle class, because they don't store their excess wealth in tied-down assets, they tend to hend a larger percent in "cash on hand", and the workig class, who are usually disenfranchised and have no power to negotiate the better wages. If the price inflation is 20-30%, like it was in 2023 for much of the world, workers don't get 20-30% raises, they get 5-10% raises (especially since they are more reliant on those wages, because they desperately need the money, so it's harder for them to say "I just quit" as well). If all you needed to solve poverty was basic maths and a money printing press, we'd have poverty eliminated 10 000 years ago.
But none of this matters, because regardless of who gets the benefits, the costs of food price inflation is always highest for the people who spend the largest portion of their income on food: the working and middle class families. So if Russia exported $50bn, and that grows to $60bn, because of a global 20% increase in food prices, and the "gains are fairly distributed", that's a gain of $10bn in an economy of $1800bn, so about 0.6%. That's if you get your "fait share of the increased profits". But your food prices went up by 20%. That's only good if you spend less than 3% of your income on food, which means you are ultra rich. The problem with economic policy, is usually, no matter what happens, the poor get fucked, because whatever the government does, the rich always have more resources to position themselves to transfer the costs while retaining the benefits to themselves, by hiring lawyers, accountants, lobbysts, bribing officials, etc.
Yes, and that's what Russia does for energy, but not for food, and they can only do that very efficiently because the government owns Rosneft and Gazprom, the actual vehicles for energy export. Food export isn't so centralised, so it's bot as easy to implement the same system.
I think that Russia has shown incredible patience with the west, and will continue plod away winning the war as a response to more provocations. Winning the war is the single best response that Russia has to the vast majority of western/Ukrainian transgressions. And not just winning, winning on a budget with minimal loss of life, both Russian troops and civilian lives.
There are three audiences that Russia has to consider, the west, the domestic audience, and the rest of the world.
Winning the war is the only thing that will influence the west. It doesn't matter what Russia does or does not do, because the western MSM will spin it into a war crime either way, overton window, lies of omission, etc.
Russia's domestic audience howls for blood every time something like the Kerch bridge happens, and it is a mark of the people's trust in Putin that he remains popular even though he doesn't give into these demands.
Which brings us to the rest of the world. Russia is fighting an existential war against the USA for its survival. But it is also fighting to overthrow western hegemony and usher in a multipolar world. To that end, Russia needs to fight a clean war, be honest in its reporting, minimize civilian casualties, and avoid stooping to the same level as the west. All of which it is doing while still winning.
Russia could respond to the near continuous provocations with a tit for tat, but it wouldn't dissuade the west one iota, might start WWIII, and would hurt Russia's image in the rest of the world. It is both wiser and more difficult than striking back and Russia should keep it up.
Perhaps the greatest irony of my lifetime is Russia taking the Eisenhower/JFK stance of a Christian nation fighting godless foreigners in self defense, while the USA is all in on Khrushchev's "We will bury you."
Russia has come out strongly for international law in general and the UN charter in particular, while ever since Reagan the US has taken pride in defying international law, practicing "might makes right" instead.
Absolutely. Putin needs to maintain the high ground in this war. There are many of us in the West who see through the propaganda and lies in the Western media. That does not mean we are "traitors" rather we see no need for needless war. As long as Russia stays within the bounds of the Ukrainian theatre I will support their actions.
Completely agreed. There are a lot of people who want a full explode-everything-in-an-orgy-of-violence crawling out of the woodwork. I understand this position emotionally. It's draining and irritating to do things the right way, and ripping lose provides much-desired emotional release and a reassurance of your own power.
For a little while.
However, if you're looking at winning the peace afterward, you have a long, hard road. Yes, right now we can't imagine what might incentivize the Kiev regime or any of its likely replacements to actually come to a peace settlement with Russia. It appears through the lens of the Internet that the madhouse is run by the fanatics, and what can you do with fanatics but kill them? So just flatten Kiev and be done with it, right?
Not so fast. After your Shock and Awe, what then? You've destroyed the enemy's organizational structure (though probably not completely), but you've created a new wave of fanatics. The more you bomb, the more you make. The bigger and more indiscriminate your explosions, the higher the conversion rate of locals from on balance supporting the current government to fanatic devotion to revenge and reclamation regardless of the cost, or at least to those who, given the choice, aid and abet them. After a while, the only real solution is complete depopulation and replacement, which even if achievable is a monumental undertaking that's by no means worth the cost.
All wars in human history are fought not over territory, but over USEFUL territory. (Even religious or ideological wars, meaning no reflection on the causes which vitalize them.) This means the primary end-goal of each belligerent is to subjugate the local population to their rule. The local population doesn't have to be happy about it and usually isn't, but they do have to pay taxes and accept de facto their new ruler as their new ruler, rather than making themselves ungovernable.
When States lose sight of this you get situations like Vietnam, or Soviet Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Israel, or American Afghanistan. In other words, 'taking off the gloves' and doing a full shock-and-awe campaign *is exactly what the US neocons want Russia to do*. I'd go so far as to say it's a path that would be more damaging to the long-term interests of Russia than just declaring tomorrow that they've rethought this whole thing and going home (which, to be clear for those with reading comprehension troubles, would be disastrous).
You'll note all the foregoing is written without even considering the moral side of the question. Once you do that, you see it's also morally wrong to just bomb and terrorize civilians or use weapons indiscriminately.
(Life is often like that, where the more just course, even if it looks harder, turns out to have been better in the end.)
As is stands Ukraine is using mercenaries from NATO and 71 yr old tank crews. Russia does not need to Shock and Awe. The slow steady and constant degradation of the AFU leaves only two outcomes. Ukraine surrenders or NATO starts WWIII.
Unless a black swan event happens or Just Poland or another neighbor joins the fight. Which will only drag it out longer with same results or start WWIII.
Even if it did 'need' shock and awe, as a policy it's counterproductive in the long run, which is the only run that matters for Russia when it comes to Ukraine.
Generally speaking, US foreign and military policy provide striking examples of what NOT to do to future generations of war planners and statesmen. Is Mexico a good neighbour or a bad one, and how has the Monroe Doctrine contributed? I think the answer is pretty obvious.
Great expose Simplicius, the West need to feel the force of Russia’s power, militarily and economic, kill the grain deal, establish direct supply Russia’s global allies reliant upon grain, I’m certain Lavrov’s ministry will be attending to the same, meanwhile I pray Russia take full retribution against the arseholes who perpetrate this in the name of statehood, Zaluzhny, Kuleba, the cross dressing pervert Zelinsky, and Budunov with their U.S and U.K handler’s, the Spy bum chum’s all deserve to shake hands and have a direct face to face introduction with Mr Kinzhal… pray it happens… soonest, evil filth they are.
Yes, and why not ship grain via Iran / China? I'm talking about exports to friendly countries like Africa. As the west's influence wanes and new multilateral organizations come into existence escape/travel options will diminish for the soon to be hunted war criminals.
There is no railroad between Russia and Iran, though one has been agreed upon. https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/iran-russia-railroad-is-coming
There is also a rail connection coming between Russia and China.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/china-to-use-vladivostok-why-that
Such lines didn't exist because they weaken national security. Railroads can be used to support an invasion. NATO has forced these three nations to overcome their traditional fears in face of a greater and imminent threat. This is precisely as predicted by George Orwell in his novel 1984.
A fossil fuel pipeline from Russia to China is under construction.
Russia should've taken out the runt Zelensky, Kuleba, Zalushney, etc months ago. But better late than never.
... and Budanov! Perhaps some on the list will be collateral damage for the real retribution for the Kerch bridge.
Yes, the are batting .000 in this department. I don't believe Zaluzny was ever targeted and Budanov survived.
No one has ever explained to me how you Denazify Ukraine by leaving their leadership in place.
Does anyone ever imagine that any of them will have to face trial? What happened to the trials anyways? We never saw any at all.
I’ve stated my opinion here several times that Russia has been doing this wrong with their “slow grind” approach. They needed to put on the Hulk Hands and SMASH a year ago.
In particular Washington DC needs to feel a Kinzhal
You are not wrong, I’d also love to include the English, French and German intelligence and Foreign Affairs Ministries together Nuland and Blinkins State Dept, these people truly are despotic, evil, I’ve written via YouTube and Sub Stack many opinions and essays detailing why and more latterly the actions needed undertaken by citizens… Two recent examples follow
Despite his brilliant mind it is truly sad that well meaning and good intentioned people like Jeffrey Sachs are so naive, it is a naivety borne of ignorance as to the cynical realities of those using them to achieve an ulterior means, to fulfil they’re obscene agenda, an agenda based entirely upon hubris and bellicosity, upon arrogance and especially of a sense of entitlement and a self appointed righteousness as to that which they pursue without recourse to any sense of true humility or indeed of humanity.
Like many I have disparaged Jeffrey Sachs for his role in fomenting and aiding the economic hardships that befell many nations around the globe with which he was involved on behalf of others, however I have since listening to many of his interviews, having read many of his authored articles now find myself firmly of the view that he was naive and in essence that naivety was seized upon and used by those with ulterior motives to destabilise plunder and pillage.
Add to the above that every single one of us is entitled to forgiveness, to a second chance and that when Sach’s alleged misdemeanour’s are measured against those who actually perpetrated the mess then and now that his alleged sins are nothing in comparison, hence I have changed my thinking and past public views espoused about this man, seemingly a lone voice in a dark wilderness endeavouring to bring true light to the darkness he and we along with him find ourselves travelling within and presently dealing with, as such Ad as written we owe those and many such, compassion, the very same we receive and expect to be given from others, afterall, when asked how many times must I forgive my brother, 7x 7 times?
The response given was nay, not 7 x 7 but 70 x 7 in that sense, I believe we know that our saviour Jesus Christ was truly correct in his response to his disciples who had asked the question, it therefore behoves us to exercise compassion and forgiveness for something as simple as recognising that someone acted out of naivety and definitely did not conduct themselves nor did act it seems to me with any aforethought of malice, unlike these neocons who in essence by their deeds and actions can be said to act n true evil, the very worst kind, hence in comparison Sach’s now in my view is entitled to forgiveness for any role he unwittingly played in past events, after all and as we know, the personal decisions taken by any individuals resulting from his actions cannot in any way be construed as being Sach’s responsibility, we are, afterall, ultimately responsible and will be adjudged for our own decisions made, hence the aftermath and consequences of Sach’s decisions cannot be attributed to him such as the decisions taken individually that resulted in the many suicides, drugs, alcoholism, wife bashing, homelessness, etc… that resulted, whilst acknowledged as being horrific they are not nor can be blamed on Sach’s…. D to do so excuses a real lack of self responsibility for one’s owns deeds and actions that impact self and those closest to you or that you have a responsibility to protect, it really, when looked at in the cold light of day, is that simple…
Brezinski, Kagan, Nuland, Wolfowitz and the rest of this disgusting group of filth, of evil, are responsible for the death, injury, homelessness, war, regime change, coup, assassinations of global leaders, the installation of puppets, dictators and other despots that having met in secret for so long, sworn they’re ridiculous oaths to each other, to the evil they serve, are undoubtedly responsible for the mess the World finds itself dealing with, confronting and likely to be dealing with.
This odious group of people, irrespective of how they see themselves, of their arrogance, hubris, belligerence and self centred entitlement represent the very dregs of humanity, of all society.
They are to be called out, vilified, denigrated, derided and maligned at every single opportunity, none of these neocon arseholes should ever be given the opportunity to rest, to merely sit back and dwell upon the heathen career they chose, what they seemingly forget is that we outnumber them, always will and as a consequence we, us, me, you, your loved ones, our friends and family, outnumber them and as noted always will, as such we as aforementioned hold the true, real and everlasting power, the ultimate power therefore lies in our hands, it remains in that respect for us to decide as to what we chose to do with it, how will we exercise the power we hold?
Soft or hard, are we simply to continue to sit back and allow the neocon filth and their wealthy benefactors including the lobbyists and politicians be they elected or appointed that serve them instead of we, us, me, you, your loved ones, our friends and family, our neighbors, communities and nation, are we to allow them to get away with everything or are we too, in exercising that power to truly demand they be held to account, called to account for all they have done…
I can say especially as applies in the U.S, that thank the Lord for the fact the founding fathers who created and signed your Constitution recognising the risk to the Republic that power and pursuit of wealth through greed and avarice would engender, actually wrote the escape clause from such tyranny within the Constitution, providing the release that ordinary Americans enjoined the like mined are able to indulge, it is enshrined within that marvellous template of freedom, unless it is understood, exercised and used to clean out from amongst you those who perpetuate this filth and evil, then sadly you will not only loses the greatest nation that was or was to be, but worse you will be adjudged as being complicit in the machinations of evil that has taken over your nation and your lives… blame then only yourselves, your own indifference and cowardice… time to decide people, no more fence sitting awaiting the cavalry… there is no cavalry, no one riding to your rescue, only you and as stated others like you can retrieve this descent of your nation into the abyss, literally, and as has been oft repeated in scripture, it would appear and seem on a number of actualities that the end is truly nigh… time to decide and set to doing what you know is needed!
The West should feel grateful that Russia has played the gentleman in this war for as long as they have yet they seem to be doing all they can to get Putin to take the gloves off.
I would rather see a a Russian formal declaration of war against Ukraine. That would put an end to most of the wests dirty games.They would have to pull out of Ukraine or formally become enemy combatants and we've all seen what a bunch of chickenshit cowards western military and political leaders are.Mercenaries would officially become war criminals and anyone sending war material to Ukraine subject to attack. They would finally abandon Ukraine with shit talk about negotiations and "NATO membership after the war" ..But there wont be any Ukraine after the war. ..
Once the West has exhausted the stock of obsolete arms being "sold" to the Ukranians then support will drop like a rock. It's not really a sale because Ukraine will never be able to pay. Instead the US residents pay via higher prices for essential goods.
Such sabotage is an attempt to induce Russia to occupy more of Ukraine to prevent it's being used to launch attacks. A complete occupation of the coast would cause water-borne drones to dry up.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
take Odessa. end the quibbling. if the west wants grain, please petition the owner in Moscow.
The Ukraine Lend-Lease Act requires Ukraine to re-pay either through monetary means or the use of American contractors to help reconstruct a country, stimulating the loans back into the U.S. economy. For example, it took Britain and Russia several decades to pay back their lease from WW2. The repayment already began when Blackrock (private corp) bought Ukrainian land. Backroom deals made by Zelensky (or any other puppet) means the Western Oligarch's win and the Ukrainian people lose.
Even before the war Ukraine was arguably the poorest nation (per capita) in Europe. (Neighboring Moldova was the contender.) Now it's much worse. Then there will be rebuilding costs, mounting every day, and the severe loss of population, mostly through emigration. I don't see how they will even keep up on the interest payments. I see it as a buy-and-enslave program. The true goal is insiders getting rich on kickbacks and to "weaken Russia" through endless war, not return on investment. I suppose the USA taxpayer will guarantee the "investments," paying for the war in sharply increased costs for basic necessities.
Colonel MacGregor said 80% of the tax base is in the now Russian-annexed areas. I cannot believe that but would believe that it is considerable chunk.
I don't have any figures nor have I done any calculations, but the situation is so dire it doesn't seem necessary. Everything is bad bad bad. https://youtu.be/1ahT2XhsC0c
Because it is a fucking terrorist attack that was aimed directly at civilians which it succeeded in killing. Look, I'm a pretty fair minded guy. In fact if some Iraqis had decided to blow some shit up here in the US while we were invading, occupying and pillaging their country, I'd have to admit to myself that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Russia has invaded Ukraine no matter how any of us wish to slice it, and nations at direct war with one another carry out attacks in each others homelands when they are capable. So this was to be expected, however, since it is directed at civilians and not legitimate military targets it qualifies as terror, full stop. I highly doubt those Iraqis I just hypothesized about would've attacked shopping malls in the USA; rather they'd have attempted to destroy American military infrastructure and hardware.
The Ukrainian terrorist regime needs to be taken down ASAP. And BTW - another bird related analogy - the US government will be more than happy (while pretending to be shocked) when the white nationalist nazi-wannabe chickens come home to roost here in a way that no Arab or Muslim would have been able. Wink wink...they're WHITE!!! And, like the January 6th INNNNNSURRECTION, any such attacks will be used to justify more surveillance powers and more draconian and militarized law enforcement capabilities.
Anyone who thinks that all these weapons that are being diverted into unsavory hands in Ukraine won't make their way back to Western Europe, Mexico, the US or Canada is either willfully ignorant or a fucking moron. Al Qaeda from Mujahideen anyone?
The Drones are coming for us, no doubt in my mind.
No fuckin shit! I hate Netflix and "militainment" but check out that new docu on AI military drones they have up for the past few weeks. It's Terminator style crap coming our way - and in part precisely because they know they can't recruit as many actual humans as they need to fight their wars anymore. Bring on the killer robot dogs any day now. (which now that I think of it, also look for the Netflix Black Mirror episode titled "Black Metal" scary stuff)
It's nice when you can CGI, but the collective west has to be able to manufacture this stuff, as in resources. China recently stopped access for the US to critical resources used in making CPUs. I expect reality will hit home when guns and butter runs into the financial casino to nowhere.
"China recently stopped access for the US to critical resources used in making CPUs" Really? Is that a fact? I don't think so.
China has created new rules that monitor and regulate the export of specific materials like Germanium and Gallium (funny that those are both named after European territories ;-). But it did not forbid the export, yet. The monitoring and control is strengthened. It is one of the not so subtle warnings to US which will get ignored and regretted by the US-"elites". These are thumbscrews with fine tuning.
Macron already got some taste of ukies weapons coming back home....
The American bald eagle is actually a Nazi Eagle
Did literal "Nazis", in name or practice, exist when the US adopted that symbol (which is mostly a scavenger bird, btw)? Perhaps the 20th century Nazis adopted it from the US or other source?
Russia has literally been targeting civilians the whole war though. Striking at 3am on a big bridge isn’t targeting civilians it’s aimed to minimise civilian casualties.
You're a drooling retard, Jason E.
You should produce some data on civilian casualties, and then you can compare those to published data on civilian casualties from other recent conflicts.
Troll alert. Or maybe just a dumbfuck.
If the Russian military really were behaving as badly as advertised, it would not be necessary to create so many atrocity tales that turned out to be fake.
If the Russian military were really suffering as many casualties as claimed, it would not be necessary for Ukraine to claim so many victories that turned out to be fake.
Mmm. Did you miss 8 solid years of the Ukie army firing indiscriminate shells into Donetsk? Did you ever see the pictures of the carnage that ensued? Did you know that there was a street named and dedicated to all the children who lost their lives there? More than 500. Once upon a time Wikipedia carried that info, but not any more. Oh, and before I forget, do you understand that those are Ukie war crimes?
LOL provide examples of Russia "TARGETING" civilians.
countries fight each other. those are the honest, if stupid, people. countries who use other countries as proxies to fight and die for them in made-up wars for the enrichment and advance of the few are cowards, dishonest, criminals.
You are too kind in your names for them.
I actually hadn't thought of that. The Azov refugees that start coming over here after the war ends are going to find themselves in a really awkward situation when the people who support them now start denouncing them later.
Simplicius, I missed your intensive posts. Where were you? Drinking coffee somewhere beautiful, I hope?
Thanks for the support. I'm just going with the flow and don't want to over-exert if there's a lull in the ongoing developments. When things heat up I flow with them, but when there's a ebbing period, I let the situation breathe a bit otherwise the posts start getting redundant saying the same things over and over again. Right now is a bit of a lull period while Ukraine figures out what they want to do next after their massive offensive failure and there hasn't been too many updates to warrant daily rigorous posts, but if it heats up then I'll be on it.
Sure, its a marathon not a sprint. Kudos.
I feel like I have some idea what is going on once you make a post, and I'm likely speaking for most of your community.
But it's understandable why you want to keep the Quality level high.
Wish you WERE a collective, and could put more out. Lol. ^_^
you're right
Good. Their "saying the same thing over and over again" has turned me away from many writers. I prefer thoughtful silence to fast previsible response, which ultimately dilutes attention and accuracy. A calculated silence also gives us time to gather information ourselves and get a feel for the situation.
And when the chronicle arrives, ah, it's a pleasure to read, assimilate the new elements and measure our own thoughts against it.
Thank you!
What a hot mess. And Dugin is correct, rabies has no cure and the enemy behind all this is deranged. I wish someone would do something about the deranged soon.
Giddy Up they already have the bridge running again. I really love that part of the story. Crassly killing civilians in a car, not a good story. Karma is on the way for those boys.
I know, crazy thought, but when I watch these videos w/all the woods and tree lines I cannot help but wonder about the ticks. If bombs don't get them Lyme disease will.
"The Deranged" - what an appropriate name for the real enemy!
They are the Black Nobility and their chums the Khazarians who rule NATO with an iron fist.
I liked what Dugin said and smiled wryly at the implied joke:
The reason that rabies has no cure is because its root cause has not been identified!
The same could be said of Lyme's Disease too.
So, as usual in war, we are fed ten tons of propaganda and hype but the truth depends on a thorough understanding of the history of the Rus, particularly before the 10th century.
They may not have Lyme disease like we have in the U.S. and Canada. Lyme is named after an island off the U.S. east coast, where biological experiments were carried out with ticks and other insects. Deer living on the island were infected by the modified ticks, and swam to the mainland, carrying the ticks with them. If this is true (doing this from memory, so it may be hard to confirm), Lyme disease may be largely confined to the North American locale.
They have ticks in Russia and Ukraine, and Lyme disease. Ticks were probably provided by Bill Gates, wouldn't be surprised if he threw in some mosquitos for free.
https://tass.com/politics/1476937
But wait, there's more. Apparently it is fake!
https://voxukraine.org/en/fake-us-research-in-ukraine-led-to-an-increase-in-the-incidence-of-tick-borne-borreliosis-in-ukraine-and-an-increase-in-the-number-of-ticks-in-russia
They do. The general name is borreliosis, we have it here in Germany too. It is everywhere, unfortunately.
I stand corrected. Thank you.
Beyond the length of the bridge, ability to defend and so forth, a more fundamental issue is that there’s simply no fear of crossing a red line for the very good reason that because there’s been no serious response to anything from NS2, to Darya Dugina, to Kremlin drones, to Belgorad, and now not 1 but 2 attacks on the Kerch bridge. All the key people behind this and all these attacks slept comfortably last night, and will again tonight. Britain in particular continues to pay no price for actions that have been responsible for tens of thousands of dead and wounded Russians. Why on earth would anyone expect them to stop?
Exactly.
This is what I say repeatedly. No Russian Red Lines at all. Ukraine practically flew a drone into Putin's bedroom. Zero response.
Ukraine and the West that backs it feels they can hit anything in Russia and never have to worry about a reprisal.
They wouldn’t stop if Russia did something kinetically dramatic in response. They would climb the escalation ladder. What else are they going to do? They keep escalating even when they don’t have real skin in the game and could walk away essentially unscathed. What makes anyone think they would refrain from lashing out violently if they were struck in some hugely costly, embarrassing or deadly way?
Maybe. They are just bullies. But maybe not. If they don’t back down, then this whole thing goes sideways in a hurry. I’d prefer not to experience strategic nuclear warfare. In fact, I’d prefer to remain as far from it on the escalation ladder as is possible.
I do not trust any western leader to make rational decisions, especially Joe Biden and most especially Joe Biden in his declining mental state. They are not serious people, and the historical moment they created is way too big for them. I’m pretty thankful that someone’s willing to act like Putin has acted, even when he has every good reason to make sure people fucking around find out. Maybe the best revenge is victory?
I disagree. Had they done something impactful early (and judiciously), the effect would be something other than allowing your opponent to conclude you have no red lines and emboldening them further
thanks simplicius.. excellent coverage on a lot of details... as for the grain deal getting back on track, i can't see it myself... too much water under the bridge.. at some point the gloves have to come off... the west happily sanctions russia a zillion ways to hell and then expects russia to roll over and play along? i can't see it myself... this is all on the west and their sanctions mentality, an obvious form of war that many in the west are unwilling or unable to acknowledge.. i don't think russia gets back on track here at this point...
The REMUS600 is designed and made in Australia by the Blue Zone Group in Newcastle. https://bluezonegroup.com.au/product-catalogue/ras/auv/hii-remus-600m-uuv/
So many targets for hypersonics, so little time.
LOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLOLLOOOOOLLLLL!!
The advertorial video for the Lancets is unique, or is that very Russian? Here some quotes:
"A super modern enterprise places its machines in the former supermarket. Can you imagine? The smell of potatoes has still been preserved here."
"Here you see how Lansets destroy two S-300 installations at once. The missiles were already in the launch containers, so the fireworks turned out to be noble."
Regards the Black Sea Grain Deal, I posted https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/black-sea-grain-deal-is-dead-for-now
Regards conscription, it worried me when I saw underage teen girls training in a patriotic video. I so hoped that they were going to be Girl Scouts and not future soldiers.
Regards Russian offensive, they learned their lesson when they lost Kharkiv. Now they only take what they can defend whilst weakening the AFU. It may be unpopular amongst action movie lovers but its methodically effective.
Regarding Kharkov - Russian MOD did what any military always does - you devour any territory enemy allows you to devour. What they did was perfectly normal. Forward scouting yada yada. They immediately withdrew when Ukraine started it's attack. Not a single cop of that BARS swat team wich held Kupyansk died.
What were they not expecting was PR backlash. So they haven't learned anything from military standpoint, really. Both moves - "take it all" and "retreat asap" were correct moves.
It work out for Russian attrition of the AFU. It's apt that in my country the AFU is the Asset Forfeiture Unit.
It’s a big, open (and presumably empty) commercial facility. Seems practical, cost effective and fast.
Being unconcerned with any of those three things is probably why the US is still talking about when it will ramp up ammunition productions and Russia is cracking Star Wars jokes about their Lancet production.
Lord knows though, there are loads of empty malls in the US today. Lol
Takeaway from McAbrams and McBradley...
On the "grain deal," it's not a matter of "concessions." Rather, it's all about the fulfillment of "promises." Here's what Putin said at the end of his informal press conference on the 13th:
"Q: The deal expires on July 18. How long are we willing to wait for them to start performing?
"Vladimir Putin: As long as it takes to fulfill the promises made to us."
It's about fulfilling the other half of the deal, rather similar to Minsk where Russia waited patiently while the other side took advantage. The cancellation has nothing to do with the bridge attack. Putin and Team had already made their decision.
Well, that's true insofar as I believe the grain deal actually had effectively stopped functioning as early as June 29th or so. However, there remained some hope/possibility for renewal but as I understand it the bridge attack put the final nail in the coffin and Russia withdrew from the Turkish contact group entirely, though I'm not 100% certain if that had already happened prior to the attack anyway.
For the record, it wasn't a "contact group" but a UN-administered joint coordination center located in Istanbul.
Dima, of Military Summary channel asks why attack a civilian bridge when the railroad bridge was nearby.
He says some civilians decided to flee. Some used ferry boats. But others drove on the main military roadway (east of Kherson?) and interrupted supply ops. Therefore he speculates UA might attack those areas to take advantage.
Oh, what a difference one letter can make.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that now allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world."
I think a "t" would be better than a "w". :)
Thanks I had already spotted and changed it in a quick read through, but good eye.
More bad typos.
"For instance, this new Politico article accuses Russia of pulling out of the grain deal on monday, and incredibly does mention the word bridge even once:"
I think "doesn't" works better. Don't you?
One step ahead of you buddy, I caught that one already as well :)
As comprehensive and detailed as your essays are I skip over any typos and go with the information you have been building towards. So far there were 2 typos out of how many words? Sheesh! Well done i say.
Superb rundown. Thank you once again. My first thought after the latest Kersh attack was: Anti-submarine nets. Admittedly I don't know a darn thing about them other than that they've been used extensively in past wars. I was kind of surprised the Russians weren't using them. I will no doubt be quickly put in my place by some astute Navy guy. It is after all the longest bridge in Europe. Dugin is on target: "And behind him is the West"--just in case the Ukrainians run out of imaginative atrocities. The Empire has personified evil for decades, though shielded by tons of lies and propaganda. Confusion and chaos is The Empire's natural milieu. Nothing should surprise us.
Modern nets made of polyethylene are very strong and they don't rust. They are quite elastic which means that they cannot be pierced.
It was also my first thought. The Russians have been grossly incompetent IMHO.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that not allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world"
I would just like to add that international food prices are one of the few markets that bleed over into Russia's otherwise isolated economy. Food prices surging would mean that yew, they can sell their grain at higher prices internationally, which is good for the exporters, but it also means that they are more incentivised to divert grain from domestic markets causing food price inflation within Russia. So I would say international prices rising creates winners and losers in Russia, the losers being the general population.
If all the money goes to oligarchs then the people lose. If there is equitable spreading of the gains then the people also win. I have no idea which would occur.
Let's put it this way: If you're a general blue or white collar worker (working/middle class), you're not going to magically get a raise because of excess grain export profits, unless you work in the specific jobs related to grain supply chains. What you're going to see is food prices going up and up and up, which are already quite high, as I understand it.
Also, it doesn't matter if the "gains are spread equitably". Since Russia has minimal imports, and is a net food exporter, that means the available amount of goods is limited, especially since internationally higher prices means more food is going OUT of the country, so there is less food left in the country. So it doesn't matter if you "make more money", there is only so much goods to buy with that money in a closed market like Russia.
Example: If everyone in Russia got a 100% raise, all that would happen is every price would basically double, and your savings would be eroded, because there is no new consumer goods that were created. This is why it's a stupid idea to pump money into an economy. It doesn't matter if the source of the money is the Government or not, the same thing happens.
"Example: If everyone in Russia got a 100% raise, all that would happen is every price would basically double, and your savings would be eroded, because there is no new consumer goods that were created. This is why it's a stupid idea to pump money into an economy. It doesn't matter if the source of the money is the Government or not, the same thing happens".
Incorrect.
There would likely be price inflation, true, as demand would increase.
HOWEVER, crucially, by doubling workers incomes, you would nowhere NEAR double inflation, as wage income is not the only source of income in the economy.
What you would have effectively done is greatly increase the income and wealth of those working, at the expense of those who sit on wealth, own land, own "shares", and other forms of rentierism.
AS LONG AS Welfare benefits (Pensions, Unemployment, Child-care etc) were also raised equally, what has happened is that Inflation has been used to level the wealth gap.
Basic math: if your income has doubled, but inflation hits 50%, you have increased your spending power by ~50%! (Not exactly, but you get the gist of the concept involved).
This, btw, is part of how Norway and the Skandis raised the general living standards from the end of the 19th Century onwards, until they had the highest general SoL in the world. Distributing money downwards, and the wealthy taking the hit. Cooperative ownership. High welfare and benefits, high taxes on the wealthy who merely sit on money and pocket more, or exploit others to add to their ill-gotten gains.
Extremely few people get "rich" entirely through their own hard work. Artists and sportspeople. Stealing other people's labour is not YOUR hard work - it is wage-slavery, and exploitation.
Good Govts CAN use inflation for noble ends - if you think ENDING poverty rather than INCREASING it is indeed noble. (For the record, I do.)
Yes, but those who sit on wealth rarely store it in cold hard cash. They have real estate, and own companies, they have investment portfolios, etc., all of which are mostly unaffected by inflation, as their value is independent of the amount of money circulating.
If you live off of stock dividends or other form of asset-based income, as most of the ultra-rich you refer to do, your wealth isn't crushed by inflation the way you say it would. It's usually the middle and working class who get crushed by inflation. The middle class, because they don't store their excess wealth in tied-down assets, they tend to hend a larger percent in "cash on hand", and the workig class, who are usually disenfranchised and have no power to negotiate the better wages. If the price inflation is 20-30%, like it was in 2023 for much of the world, workers don't get 20-30% raises, they get 5-10% raises (especially since they are more reliant on those wages, because they desperately need the money, so it's harder for them to say "I just quit" as well). If all you needed to solve poverty was basic maths and a money printing press, we'd have poverty eliminated 10 000 years ago.
But none of this matters, because regardless of who gets the benefits, the costs of food price inflation is always highest for the people who spend the largest portion of their income on food: the working and middle class families. So if Russia exported $50bn, and that grows to $60bn, because of a global 20% increase in food prices, and the "gains are fairly distributed", that's a gain of $10bn in an economy of $1800bn, so about 0.6%. That's if you get your "fait share of the increased profits". But your food prices went up by 20%. That's only good if you spend less than 3% of your income on food, which means you are ultra rich. The problem with economic policy, is usually, no matter what happens, the poor get fucked, because whatever the government does, the rich always have more resources to position themselves to transfer the costs while retaining the benefits to themselves, by hiring lawyers, accountants, lobbysts, bribing officials, etc.
You can always keep domestic supply and therefore prices down by price controls and export permits.
Yes, and that's what Russia does for energy, but not for food, and they can only do that very efficiently because the government owns Rosneft and Gazprom, the actual vehicles for energy export. Food export isn't so centralised, so it's bot as easy to implement the same system.
RE: Russian red lines.
I think that Russia has shown incredible patience with the west, and will continue plod away winning the war as a response to more provocations. Winning the war is the single best response that Russia has to the vast majority of western/Ukrainian transgressions. And not just winning, winning on a budget with minimal loss of life, both Russian troops and civilian lives.
There are three audiences that Russia has to consider, the west, the domestic audience, and the rest of the world.
Winning the war is the only thing that will influence the west. It doesn't matter what Russia does or does not do, because the western MSM will spin it into a war crime either way, overton window, lies of omission, etc.
Russia's domestic audience howls for blood every time something like the Kerch bridge happens, and it is a mark of the people's trust in Putin that he remains popular even though he doesn't give into these demands.
Which brings us to the rest of the world. Russia is fighting an existential war against the USA for its survival. But it is also fighting to overthrow western hegemony and usher in a multipolar world. To that end, Russia needs to fight a clean war, be honest in its reporting, minimize civilian casualties, and avoid stooping to the same level as the west. All of which it is doing while still winning.
Russia could respond to the near continuous provocations with a tit for tat, but it wouldn't dissuade the west one iota, might start WWIII, and would hurt Russia's image in the rest of the world. It is both wiser and more difficult than striking back and Russia should keep it up.
Perhaps the greatest irony of my lifetime is Russia taking the Eisenhower/JFK stance of a Christian nation fighting godless foreigners in self defense, while the USA is all in on Khrushchev's "We will bury you."
Russia has come out strongly for international law in general and the UN charter in particular, while ever since Reagan the US has taken pride in defying international law, practicing "might makes right" instead.
Precisely this Hatter. Well said.
It really IS a war between 'civilisation', and barbarism, but the Western corproate media has it all arse-backwards as per usual.
If President Putin was offered the title "Emperor of Earth", he would dismiss it in a heartbeat with tears of "NO FUCKING WAY JOSE!" in his eyes.
Cabbage Biden would be confused, as he assumed he already was, in his addled wits.
Absolutely. Putin needs to maintain the high ground in this war. There are many of us in the West who see through the propaganda and lies in the Western media. That does not mean we are "traitors" rather we see no need for needless war. As long as Russia stays within the bounds of the Ukrainian theatre I will support their actions.
Completely agreed. There are a lot of people who want a full explode-everything-in-an-orgy-of-violence crawling out of the woodwork. I understand this position emotionally. It's draining and irritating to do things the right way, and ripping lose provides much-desired emotional release and a reassurance of your own power.
For a little while.
However, if you're looking at winning the peace afterward, you have a long, hard road. Yes, right now we can't imagine what might incentivize the Kiev regime or any of its likely replacements to actually come to a peace settlement with Russia. It appears through the lens of the Internet that the madhouse is run by the fanatics, and what can you do with fanatics but kill them? So just flatten Kiev and be done with it, right?
Not so fast. After your Shock and Awe, what then? You've destroyed the enemy's organizational structure (though probably not completely), but you've created a new wave of fanatics. The more you bomb, the more you make. The bigger and more indiscriminate your explosions, the higher the conversion rate of locals from on balance supporting the current government to fanatic devotion to revenge and reclamation regardless of the cost, or at least to those who, given the choice, aid and abet them. After a while, the only real solution is complete depopulation and replacement, which even if achievable is a monumental undertaking that's by no means worth the cost.
All wars in human history are fought not over territory, but over USEFUL territory. (Even religious or ideological wars, meaning no reflection on the causes which vitalize them.) This means the primary end-goal of each belligerent is to subjugate the local population to their rule. The local population doesn't have to be happy about it and usually isn't, but they do have to pay taxes and accept de facto their new ruler as their new ruler, rather than making themselves ungovernable.
When States lose sight of this you get situations like Vietnam, or Soviet Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Israel, or American Afghanistan. In other words, 'taking off the gloves' and doing a full shock-and-awe campaign *is exactly what the US neocons want Russia to do*. I'd go so far as to say it's a path that would be more damaging to the long-term interests of Russia than just declaring tomorrow that they've rethought this whole thing and going home (which, to be clear for those with reading comprehension troubles, would be disastrous).
You'll note all the foregoing is written without even considering the moral side of the question. Once you do that, you see it's also morally wrong to just bomb and terrorize civilians or use weapons indiscriminately.
(Life is often like that, where the more just course, even if it looks harder, turns out to have been better in the end.)
As is stands Ukraine is using mercenaries from NATO and 71 yr old tank crews. Russia does not need to Shock and Awe. The slow steady and constant degradation of the AFU leaves only two outcomes. Ukraine surrenders or NATO starts WWIII.
Unless a black swan event happens or Just Poland or another neighbor joins the fight. Which will only drag it out longer with same results or start WWIII.
Even if it did 'need' shock and awe, as a policy it's counterproductive in the long run, which is the only run that matters for Russia when it comes to Ukraine.
Generally speaking, US foreign and military policy provide striking examples of what NOT to do to future generations of war planners and statesmen. Is Mexico a good neighbour or a bad one, and how has the Monroe Doctrine contributed? I think the answer is pretty obvious.