If the HIMARS has been largely defeated by Russia AD, then these projectiles will fare far worse. The volume of them will be limited for all the reasons noted. It is not a stupid idea if you want to use these as an artillery substitute since 155 MM shells are gone, but the volume of these and the lack of explosive footprint will make them pretty ineffective for the ones that get through AD. Its way too little, way too late. The West did not understand Russia's capabilities economically and militarily and were not prepared for this war. They are stupid, arrogant and ignorant. Dangerous too, mostly to their own people.
That's why Russia needs to focus on the meat and potatoes of warfare as its been waged for centuries, and leave the wundwaffen propaganda stuff to the successors of the Third Reigh.
I guess the sum of these systems is always greater than the parts
I.e. JDAM on its own is defeatable. But JDAM launched en masse from B-52's or B-2's can really ruin your day. And they are really very clever and cheap bombs. The impetus is always on the defender in this case - the attacker tosses ordinance your way and you have to stop it. I suspect the F-16 noise is directly connected to the JDAM's; I was wondering why they wanted them so badly, now it makes sense as they are a pretty good way to delivery payload. And since the ISR infrastructure is already in place, the targeting will be the same as what is being used for HIMARS. In that sense, perhaps the objective here is to get the Ukrainians to start doing "set piece" attacks where HIMARS, JDAM, and artillery are used in conjunction to overwhelm Russian defenses. It would make sense, and if they are serious about actually launching offensives against prepared positions it is a MINIMUM just to get started. Also - the nanosecond fighter jets are committed, I would immediately guess that airborne ECM systems will go hand in hand otherwise the F-16's will be shot down before they can do anything. I digress...
We have seen how difficult it is to assault positions on the Ukrainian side - despite Russia having major firepower superiority the Ukrainians are able to put up tenacious defense. I have no doubt the reverse will be true and in an order of magnitude more so
But I keep trying to play it out - where does this wind up? Its all partial, too little, too late stuff. But I don't doubt the motivation of the people behind it, so my only conclusion is that it is to set up an eventual 'fait accompli' where reality on the ground dictates that this is a full-on world war. It doesn't help that the Ukrainians are nonstop trying to instigate false flags, and these provocative strikes on Russia. I get it - it is in their interest to draw NATO in - and what with the Johnson's, Baerbocks, Stoltenbergs, and whatnot of the world, some are only too eager to be drawn in.
Russia needs to start playing the media/political game as well and work on managing Western perception.
Excelent analysis but I am not buying the hu rah russian victory. Let s face it. The russian army doesn t perform that well. It just doesn t. 1 year of war and....? Yes we hear the kill ratio of 1 to 8, attrition war and all that but the AFU doesn t look like it will collapse any time soon. That means that they have a lot of soldiers to spare. Plus Ukraine doesn t have to win but just bleed Rusia dry. 7 months and still they haven t take that punny town known as Bahmut? Serious? And even there the progres has been made by Wagner. Whatever we say we have to honest, this war ain t going according to plan, not one bit. Maybe it s the Kremlin s corruption, generals incompetence, whatever, it s still looks bad. Plus the russian leadership doesn t take this war serios let s face it. Ukrainians fight like demented spartans, while the russians fear losing even a truck. That is no receipe for victory. I have no dog în this fight, but I can clearly see that Russia can t win this, no way. After Bahmut....what? How much will it take to conquer Kramatorsk? Then Dnipro? Another year at least, no way they can sustain that level of fightong for so long with 500k troops. Russia is Lucky if it frees the Donbass any time soon. But fier that they are trully stuck. And then negociations, a Minsk 3. Forget about Odessa. And them NATO will move în thebwestern part of Ukraine and there is nothing Russia can do. This is the Crimmea war all over again.
You were VERY generous with the 90km range of the M26 rocket. The HIMARS has a range of 90km, but like with all rockets, the engines only last the initial few minutes of the travel time. After the engines shut off, the missile has to use that limited energy to hit the target.
This is also why flying high in a plane is not only dangerous because the enemy radars can spot you. The thinner atmosphere means that the drag the AD missiles have to fight is much smaller, therefore they reach the jet before losing much from their peak altitude and velocity. This also means they have a higher hit probability as well, because they have more speed that they can use to maneuver. Up there, you are a "sitting duck", because you have no hope of bleeding the missile of energy, so you pray to God that you can dodge it.
Nothing is absolute, and nothing has a Pk of 1, despite the advertising on the box. More gradual escalation and testing of weapons and doctrine. F-16s as they are plentiful and cheap enough to throw away, esp. the early generation, now that Mig29 and Su27 are getting scarce. I'm not a knuck, but I suspect that zoom climbing a B16 to 30kft with multiple JDAM under the wings will not be a dynamic manoeuvre....nor will they hang around up there to re-accelerate, it will be a toss launch. Patience. Slowly slowly catchee monkey?
Great analysis, as usual. I’m wondering if we will be sending dangerous gas stoves along with the JDAMs to finally “turn the tide.”
Carry on, extensive information. Math is my game. Love this❤️🇷🇺💙
If the HIMARS has been largely defeated by Russia AD, then these projectiles will fare far worse. The volume of them will be limited for all the reasons noted. It is not a stupid idea if you want to use these as an artillery substitute since 155 MM shells are gone, but the volume of these and the lack of explosive footprint will make them pretty ineffective for the ones that get through AD. Its way too little, way too late. The West did not understand Russia's capabilities economically and militarily and were not prepared for this war. They are stupid, arrogant and ignorant. Dangerous too, mostly to their own people.
Excellent article, thank you.
At this point I'm waiting for NATO to send Ukraine some Jagdtigers, V-2s and Me-262s in the next batch of Wunderwaffe. It worked last time right?
Brilliant. Keep 'em coming.
That's why Russia needs to focus on the meat and potatoes of warfare as its been waged for centuries, and leave the wundwaffen propaganda stuff to the successors of the Third Reigh.
New reader, nice work.
I guess the sum of these systems is always greater than the parts
I.e. JDAM on its own is defeatable. But JDAM launched en masse from B-52's or B-2's can really ruin your day. And they are really very clever and cheap bombs. The impetus is always on the defender in this case - the attacker tosses ordinance your way and you have to stop it. I suspect the F-16 noise is directly connected to the JDAM's; I was wondering why they wanted them so badly, now it makes sense as they are a pretty good way to delivery payload. And since the ISR infrastructure is already in place, the targeting will be the same as what is being used for HIMARS. In that sense, perhaps the objective here is to get the Ukrainians to start doing "set piece" attacks where HIMARS, JDAM, and artillery are used in conjunction to overwhelm Russian defenses. It would make sense, and if they are serious about actually launching offensives against prepared positions it is a MINIMUM just to get started. Also - the nanosecond fighter jets are committed, I would immediately guess that airborne ECM systems will go hand in hand otherwise the F-16's will be shot down before they can do anything. I digress...
We have seen how difficult it is to assault positions on the Ukrainian side - despite Russia having major firepower superiority the Ukrainians are able to put up tenacious defense. I have no doubt the reverse will be true and in an order of magnitude more so
But I keep trying to play it out - where does this wind up? Its all partial, too little, too late stuff. But I don't doubt the motivation of the people behind it, so my only conclusion is that it is to set up an eventual 'fait accompli' where reality on the ground dictates that this is a full-on world war. It doesn't help that the Ukrainians are nonstop trying to instigate false flags, and these provocative strikes on Russia. I get it - it is in their interest to draw NATO in - and what with the Johnson's, Baerbocks, Stoltenbergs, and whatnot of the world, some are only too eager to be drawn in.
Russia needs to start playing the media/political game as well and work on managing Western perception.
Excelent analysis but I am not buying the hu rah russian victory. Let s face it. The russian army doesn t perform that well. It just doesn t. 1 year of war and....? Yes we hear the kill ratio of 1 to 8, attrition war and all that but the AFU doesn t look like it will collapse any time soon. That means that they have a lot of soldiers to spare. Plus Ukraine doesn t have to win but just bleed Rusia dry. 7 months and still they haven t take that punny town known as Bahmut? Serious? And even there the progres has been made by Wagner. Whatever we say we have to honest, this war ain t going according to plan, not one bit. Maybe it s the Kremlin s corruption, generals incompetence, whatever, it s still looks bad. Plus the russian leadership doesn t take this war serios let s face it. Ukrainians fight like demented spartans, while the russians fear losing even a truck. That is no receipe for victory. I have no dog în this fight, but I can clearly see that Russia can t win this, no way. After Bahmut....what? How much will it take to conquer Kramatorsk? Then Dnipro? Another year at least, no way they can sustain that level of fightong for so long with 500k troops. Russia is Lucky if it frees the Donbass any time soon. But fier that they are trully stuck. And then negociations, a Minsk 3. Forget about Odessa. And them NATO will move în thebwestern part of Ukraine and there is nothing Russia can do. This is the Crimmea war all over again.
Great analysis, few points:
You were VERY generous with the 90km range of the M26 rocket. The HIMARS has a range of 90km, but like with all rockets, the engines only last the initial few minutes of the travel time. After the engines shut off, the missile has to use that limited energy to hit the target.
This is also why flying high in a plane is not only dangerous because the enemy radars can spot you. The thinner atmosphere means that the drag the AD missiles have to fight is much smaller, therefore they reach the jet before losing much from their peak altitude and velocity. This also means they have a higher hit probability as well, because they have more speed that they can use to maneuver. Up there, you are a "sitting duck", because you have no hope of bleeding the missile of energy, so you pray to God that you can dodge it.
You do great work and I enjoy it.
I've seen enough to become a paying subscriber.
Nothing is absolute, and nothing has a Pk of 1, despite the advertising on the box. More gradual escalation and testing of weapons and doctrine. F-16s as they are plentiful and cheap enough to throw away, esp. the early generation, now that Mig29 and Su27 are getting scarce. I'm not a knuck, but I suspect that zoom climbing a B16 to 30kft with multiple JDAM under the wings will not be a dynamic manoeuvre....nor will they hang around up there to re-accelerate, it will be a toss launch. Patience. Slowly slowly catchee monkey?
Sounds like a rerun of the V1/V2 solution at the end of the war.
Correction; S400 missles fly at speeds of up to Mach 13-14, not Mach 3.
Correction; S400 missles fly at speeds of up to Mach 13-14, not Mach 3.