If Dimko Zhluktenko wants to kills Russians and makes fun of the Russian being eaten by the shark (which just shows what a contemptible creature he is) one wonders since he looks of military age why he hasn't signed up and is not on the front lines 'killing' Russians... People like him give the term human garbage a home.
There's a reason why we call them Nazis. Guess who they act like? Nazis! If you ever hear about the Ukrainians doing something wicked in this war and you're not sure if it's true, as yourself, "Would the Nazis have done this?" If the answer is yes, then they probably did it. I'm saying that they are on the moral level, the morally debased level, of Nazis.
This is one reason I don't want Russia to fight dirty like everyone on here advocates. Someone has to maintain the high ground. Russia fights dirty and we lose that high ground. Now you have two sides acting like Nazis. Why support the Russians anymore? What for? Russia gains so much good will by taking the high road here. Leave the low road to the Nazis. They do it so well. You don't get down in the gutter with your depraved enemies. Once you do, you're just like them!
Larry Johnson, at his 'A Son of the New American Revolution' website, expressed similar Erdogan views to yours this morning. I'm gonna be lazy and copy my comment from there:
I still believe it likely that the prisoner release was done for Putin and the grain deal [or for a grain deal that better benefits Russia]. Failing that notion, and looking to the long-term, every broken agreement gives Putin a bigger hand when it comes to negotiations to end this war.
At the least, it was an Erdogan move for the sake of Erdogan. He plays both sides, always for himself. Like many dictators, he will believe in his godhood, and that he can keep balancing on this circus wire. He survived the earthquake scandal. Few sociopaths in our world would've had that ability. I have to give him credit for having walked this far above the ring.
This war is a masterclass in Machiavellianism, from Putin, Erdogan, Zelensky, Orban, Lushenko, Da Silva and India. My country of South Africa hasn't played at their level. The USA has been the worst but it's got the advantage of being supported by a hundred million idiots believing flag waving is more important than human killing.
NB: I do not include the beautiful inquiring minds I follow as part of the idiot American mass. May you copulate and procreate sanity.
The problem with the grain deal, (for everyone else) is EU dropped all tariffs and quotas on ukie grain, they send more per month than they did in a year before. Which is furthering economic woes of all the unfriendly countries, so while Russia gets nothing directly out of the deal, our countries screwing themselves over a little more has a value of its own
Corporations preserve their profit, and gouge during crisis. The other side of the grain deal is that they're sending their goods to Russia via its neighbours. German exports, in the first quarter of 2023, increased:
up 48% Georgia
up 132% Armenia
up 773% Kyrgystan
I took that from the new DW documentary, 'How EU sanctions against Russia are failing'. German news may possess bias but not overtly like the USA's. Watch at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7yofon22AM
The EU screwover is a propaganda win for Russia in poor places such as Africa. But I'm sure Africans would rather eat cheaper than have a moral victory over neocolonialism.
afaik the cheap Ukrainan grain isn't used in food production (otherwise explain why all grain products are now three times more expensive than two years ago), but is used to feed cattle and to be burned as bio fuel.
You should only include the American ruling regime and the deep state with the oligarch mafia in the US. The vast majority of Americans have, over multiple recent decades, been systematically manipulated, rendered utterly powerless, confused, disorganized, marginalized, and apathetic. Try not to confuse them with those in power and extend your sympathy to them as well!
That's a constant war within me. We're controlled because the same people usually do not inquire, choosing laziness and convenience. Manipulation exists, and its profound, but we're also responsible for our actions. I've seen and experienced too much pain to simply forgive people who look the away. But I'm an activist because I have sympathy for my fellow humans who are similar everywhere in the world.
All that reasoning might apply to the bourgeoisie and intelligentsia classes. But the half of the American population living below or hovering around the poverty line mostly don’t know even where Ukraine is or have the luxury to process such details about the foreign policy crimes of the ruling class, especially while chronically overwhelmed with how they are going to pay for their food next week!
Wow! You must be a genius. Did you personally administer a battery of intelligence tests to a representative sample of Americans? Perhaps you’ve been conducting an “international” study for some time? Care to share the results of your seminal research or the cross national data?
These are the obvious exceptions, and part of that war in my head. But the middle and bourgeoisie class are less so, no matter the point of manipulation you introduced.
On the other hand, your liberal ideals of personal responsibility and choice don’t stand a chance in light of the long-standing socio-psychological research on effects of propaganda and conformity! I’d be glad to cite if you’re interested.
Yes but it is pretty interesting twist in geopolitics stage. I enjoy this drama actually. Each chess player is doing their own tricks and moves. I hope the internet still on when the game is about to end. so we might witness the winner and the sore loser.
We don't have confirmation. If it happened, damn interesting. If it didn't, then the reason for stating it is interesting. The twists and turns continue.
"every broken agreement gives Putin a bigger hand when it comes to negotiations to end this war." They have already made their contempt for honesty crystal clear. Their boasting of their perfidy shows pride, not shame that might be used as leverage.
The ill intent of Germany and France towards Minsk is reason why extra leverage is needed for a better deal. I don't want a Berlin wall for Ukraine, or between Russia and Europe.
The collective west is so completely broken that "negotiations" are only possible on the battlefield. I think each side understands that ultimately this only means unconditional surrender.
The let them think they are winning element is essential - for Russia to hand Erdogan a useful propoganda victory is part of their own intricate manoeuvers, to hand Z another lets the westies fabulate that they are 'still winning'
A much simpler answer: Erdogan constantly plays both sides, and in the case of Russia, he knows he can abuse her because any alternative is likely to be worse for Russia.
That is a big deal. Russia's navy there includes missile carriers, subs and a bunch of other ships i.e. they can block the gap. The rub is that this is a drone war so that could come at a hefty price. But Putin is aware of this so it makes sense for him to keep Erdogan buttered.
Exactly - the grain deal is complex but Erdogan would like a better one -however letting Erdogan play fast and loose with NATO and the EU with titbits like the Azov release, EU memberships etc etc, serves his purpose : E is like a very well trained but still wild card, at the end of the day he'll always come home
I disagree. NATO fleet in Black Sea is just big fat targets for Russia. Turkey making profits on behest of Russia as gas hub, parallel import hub and major tourist destination. Losing Rosatom support will dud their new nuclear power plant. Just squeezing some of these will crater Turkey's economy without much trouble to Russia. Erdogan is just being Erdogan.
Erdogan is just being Erdogan for sure. Russia doesn’t want to sink NATO ships in the Black Sea and Erdogan invoking Montreux keeps them out, which makes the Black Sea a Russian lake for the time being. A lot of missile launches are down from the Black Sea and they’d be more complicated with NATO ships around.
Why should Russia not welcome the opportunity to destroy 'NATO' ships, even if NATO ships could somehow threaten them, if manned by Uk sailors etc
You appear to believe that unlike the rest of NATO's weapons, 'their' ships are a significant danger to the Russians, so much so they would be over the barrel for this?
It’s not who could sink what but the escalation potential. And it would almost certainly mean Russia wouldn’t have the free access for missile launches.
If your enemy attacks your lines with what he considers to be bigger and better weapons, you are supposed to decline to destroy them on the grounds of 'escalation potential'?
It's only 'escalation' if the wepons you refer to (and say the ships) are indeed more effective - so far they have proven less and less even if more and more expensive
If he should send a navy into waters which you wish to deny him, to protect and to use indeed for your own purposes, you are supposed to do nothing but worry once again and not to destroy the the ships?
One sides escalates the other side de escalates and that's called fighting a war?
You predicate some sort of chivalrous code by which some ('of our') weapons are to be considered more noble than others - this sounds far too much like the nonsensical 'rules based order'
As much as I criticise, I mustn't forget those amazing antiwar protestors, whistleblowers and documentarians who do their best to make our world a better place. Many hit above their weight.
I'm with you on that. Many Citizen Journalists are pounding away at the lies of the American and European media. As Caitlin Johnstone wrote, "We live in a Narrative Matrix controlled by Plutocratic and military Institutions who have created an ILLUSION of democracy. There's no separation between Press and State.".
God I despise Erdog! Speaking of Nazis! The vast majority of Turks are total Nazis! They're simply genocidal ethnic nationalist ultranationalist fascists. They're racist fascists. Racist fascists are called Nazis. Not all fascists are racist. Mussolini wasn't all that racist.
The Turk dogs have changed one bit since they massacred 2.5 million Armenians, 725,000 Greeks, and 1.5 million Assyrians. And it was an Islamic jihad, too. Note that everyone they killed was a Christian?
You have any idea how these Nazi monsters treat the Kurds? There's nothing worse. They persecute and attack all other languages and cultures in Turkey. There are no minorities in Turkey. Everyone is a "Turk." Kurds are "mountain Turks." All other minorities are hyphenated Turks. No non-Turkish language is recognized and war is waged against all non-Turkish tongues in that horrible country.
People have no idea how evil Turkey is. I didn't realize it myself until I started talking to a lot of Kurds and Armenians and studying these goddamned monsters a lot.
Putin, Orban, Lukashenko, and Da Silva are all right. They are masters of playing this game without descending into wickedness. Erdog and Fuhrer Zelensky are lowlifes. I don't like the Indian guy, but he's just a tool. He's done a good balancing act in this war. He can't really act decently because he represents an overtly fascist, Nazi-like political party called the BJP. Their heroes are literal Nazis. Mein Kampf is a big seller in regions where the BJP is big. Hindu nationalists never stopped supporting Nazis and they take after them in a lot of ways.
Russia bombed some of Erdog's scummy Al Qaeda-like Turk Nazi jihadis in Northern Syria. I guess Erdog is mad that his Nazi puppet troops got attacked. He's all but annexed Northern Syria. They ethnically cleansed all the Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, etc. (Turks have a long history of this, no?), they banned all their languages, they instituted Turkish school curriculum, and they promote Turkish culture. He may as well just annex it already. There is a group called Turkmen up there who speak a dialect of Turkish.
The money-laundering scheme involving much of the DC political class and many officials HAS ALREADY seen "the light of day". Since so many politicians, on both sides, are involved, they cannot and will not use it to attack one another (though that is open for Trump and RFK). Nor will the MSM and big tech publicize it, since they are joined at the hip (Twitter may now be an exception) with the DC political establishment and almost all their revenue depends on a combination of government and corrupt corporations actively connected to government (eg MIC, big pharma and big Ag).
Lex Fridman interviews amazingly. I loved that early in the war, he showed both sides. His latest is with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. F
Fridman starts by explaining why he's interviewing RFK (as opposed to Sam Harris who described why he's not doing the same). Then its adverts, but you can jump to RFK at 8min40sec. He talks about Hitler and moral courage in the face of evil power, and absurdism seeking meaning in a life that tries to overpower us. That's buildup to the Cold war with Russia and the current war in Ukraine. RFK says that he would absolutely sit down with Putin and Zelensky for a peace deal.
There's the rub. It's an act on a stage where kabuki theater rules the day. Putin and the Russians have commented correctly before that the US is not agreement capable for several reasons, one of which is that the administration/party in power changes so often and often tries to undo/outdo the party they are temporarily replacing. The other thing is that as soon as RFK sat down and talked to Putin, the Borg would see to it that his next speech required passing by a grassy knoll to get there.
I would rather the chef than the waiter make me a meal. The USA needs to sign instead of their proxies lying for them. Everything must be done to avoid another Minsk.
Twitter is no exception, even with fElon musk in charge. Remember, just like Bozos, he has BIG TIME "defense" and NASA contracts to worry about and we've all seen how vindictive the MIC borg can be.
The surrender of the Azovstal commanders to Turkey was undoubtedly on the condition they be held in custody until the end of the conflict. Erdogan's decision to release them is a clear cut betrayal of his agreement with Russia. His reported new position the Ukraine should be admitted to NATO is further alignment with NATO/Ukraine. He has shown he is not agreement capable, along with the rest of NATO, and has lost any ability to act as an intermediary.
Turkey will pay a large cost for the bribes that Erdogan has collected. It may well affect Turkey's position as a hub for distribution of Russian oil/gas.
Erdogan it seems, much like Modi, he wants to have it both ways IMO. I understand the shaky middle ground especially at the start of the SMO. Best stay neutral and not potentially end up on the winner’s shitlist. However the last couple months have brought one let down after another to NATO.
Not sure why he would be wanting to deliberately ruffle Russia’s feathers now. They are this close to landing a decisive blow which might have the potential to knock the West off their high horse forever.
Erdogan is just being Erdogan, there is not really much surprising about it since even Turk, him, already did many mistakes in the past, the one before this was sending Ukrops their Bayraktar in the beginning (only to be destroyed, all of them).
No Carol, I was not there. However, in almost 80 years of observing the world, including inside government, I understand well what is normal practice in such arrangements.
Uh huh-- and politicians do they not play games during war? Take a look now at what Turkiye has agreed to re: Vilnius NATO meeting, what Erdogan has done in the past vis a vis Russia and the US re F-16 and S-400s-- at the time many like you saw the end of the relationship-- how is that bearing out?
Do families disagree and fight? Do they end everything? 🤔
"Basically the very mal-adapted, under-developed, degenerate dregs of society we all expected, sharing the physiognomical defects of their mentally ill Antifa counterparts."
Yes propaganda victories are all the Ukraine and the west have and in the end they are irrelevant. And as you said this might be a chance for these Azov guys to be actually killed in action .But at the risk of being called a hawk I'm not happy that the Azov commander is free .Azov committed atrocities in Mariupol and this should never have happened .Erdogan is two faced manipulator and the fate of these men should never have been left in his hands
Propaganda is extremely important for folks on cnn, bbc and especially idiots on zuckbook, musktwatter, jewtube, 9gag and 4chan. They need to hit their daily dose of insanity, otherwise internet will be a boring place.
Got gnashing my teeth listening how the Snake Island is theirs. USSR stole it in 1947 from Romania. I do pray and hope it will ultimately fall on Russia's hands, so that no US installations get built there.
One recent rumor stated that Russia may retake Snake Island soon now that the grain deal will allegedly be axed for good. It has some plausibility, though I doubt it, but we'll see.
Recall, that Russia "officially" gave up the island as part of the goodwill gesture to begin the grain deal.
However, personally I:
1. doubt Russia's ability to hold the island under threat of Ukrainian artillery barrage as the air defense can't do anything against artillery fired from mainland
2. doubt that the grain deal is necessarily finished as some expect due to the perceived Turkish betrayal vis a vis the Azov situation
For the record, although it has a nice view, Snake Island is virtually uninhabitable (it's just a mostly flat piece of rock with no soil and no fresh water) and always was until the Russians put a lighthouse on it in 1842 (i.e. during imperial days, not Communism).
Besides its current military usefulness (or lack thereof), the real issue is who controls the economic zone around it (the waters) as it's right at the mouth of the Danube River. The USSR and Romania had a number of agreements and disagreements about this (including whether it's an island or just a rock, literally), but the issue was settled "permanently" in 1997 when Romania ceded it to Ukraine.
Also, Romania only officially "owned" the island from 1920-1948, not 1947. And all this changing of hands was done via official treaties.
In 1877, following the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, the Ottoman Empire gave the island and Northern Dobruja region to Romania, as a reimbursement for the Russian annexation of Romania's Southern Bessarabia region.
As part of the Romanian alliance with Russia, the Russians operated a wireless station on the island, which was destroyed on 25 June 1917 when it was bombarded by the Ottoman cruiser Midilli (built as SMS Breslau of the German Navy). The lighthouse (built by Marius Michel Pasha in 1860) was also damaged and possibly destroyed.
The 1920 Treaty of Versailles reconfirmed the island as part of Romania. The lighthouse was rebuilt in 1922.
It's like releasing a bunch of cattle into a field. Tag, release and track--if the Azov smarter ones (oxymoron??) go to Europe--well that will be interesting. Just imagine what the Russians could have done with these guys during their "containment" in Turkey. Oh yes the FSB was there watching them. What would the CIA do Larry?
The Azov leaders have a Hobson's choice, if they have a choice at all rather than being told by Zelensky "you will do this, or you will die in a mysterious and tragic helicopter accident". If they flee to safety in the rest of Europe, which will be a major blow to UAF morale at a time when such is unsustainable. (Set aside for a moment the fate of Litvinenko.) If they stay 'somewhere safe' in the Ukraine Russia will spend a lot of effort to track them down and send a long-range welcome home present. If they go tot he front lines, the very best they can hope for is to live like Sirsky on a wing and a prayer instead of disappearing into a Russian trench somewhere as a 'mosquito'.
It appears much of DARPA's interest in vaccines is connected with injectable materials that provide ways to track and trace individuals of interest. I'm sure Russia will have similar tech.
The U.S. has thousands of Abrams tanks sitting in boneyards. They've been rolling them off the manufacturing lines without lubricants or fuel for years now, and plopping them straight into storage depots. Why haven't those MBTs been offered to Ukraine?
I really wonder if Budanov and Zaluzhny are actually alive. I believe the Budanov in the video is a double. Still haven't gotten any audio from either of them since their original disappearances (Zaluzhny, when his Telegram channel went silent, and Budanov, when the missile hit HQ in Kiev), it would be easy to prove they're alive by having them talking into a microphone about some current event (so it could be compared to older audio known to be them)
Well, it is strange that Zaluzhny didn't appear present at the Azov gathering. Meanwhile Budanov has been acting strange ever since his reappearance.
As for the Abrams, well, as I understand it: U.S. has about 2500 active Abrams and another ~3500 in storage (give or take). However, a good portion of the ones in storage (likely the majority) are M1A1, i.e. the most ancient and original variant.
I'm not sure if there's any official literature on how many of the 3500 in storage are M1A1s, it could be much more than we think, it might be even almost all of them for all we know.
With that said, the M1A1s are still probably better than any of the 105mm barreled stuff I was discussing in the article, but they are still difficult to maintain and may be very difficult or time-consuming for U.S. to un-mothball (not sure).
Also, they make up a strategic reserve for the U.S. given the fact that they don't produce anymore tanks, so U.S. would be very wary to dip into its reserve as that now affects their own national security in terms of a potential future war against Russia/China.
also very difficult to run, needing specialized fuel, and being too heavy for Ukrainian roads and bridges. Readiness levels of all "active" US military hardware is poor- my guess is 60%, so probably only 1500 ABrams usable, and with their legendary break down rate, attrition in just getting to the front is likely non-negligible.
The gas turbine engine in an Abrams tank can use a variety of fuels, including jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and marine diesel, so no, it does not need specialised fuel, the down side is that it is not as robust as a diesel engine and prone to overheating and maintenance issues. The other points you make are valid. Regards.
They still produce them, just like 1-2 a month(WAG). The SEP 4s started rolling out a couple of months ago. Next Gen thermal with enhanced capability to see through fog, rain, and smoke. Which means they've figured out how to defy physics, but I believe their claims.
I've covered it before but intend to cover it at length again in the near future because the fact is, Russia does not have any magical advantages over Ukraine that would allow them to successfully conduct assaults / offensives. Both sides are inhibited by the same exact issues of: 1. ubiquitous mining and 2. complete drone overwatch on every front.
This means that Russia's own ability to *truly* conduct a breakthrough offensive in the future is also in question.
The one big advantage Russia has that may mitigate this is that Russia is the god of artillery. Artillery alone could allow them to decimate Ukraine's lines little by little, just by virtue of sheer attrition (well, this is in conjunction to airpower and some light assaulting as well). But in terms of full out maneuver warfare with massive breakthroughs to the operational rear like in WW2, it's simply not possible. It's not going to happen for ANYONE. The U.S. themselves would not be able to do it in this environment.
I was saving this to post in an upcoming article but you can get first dibs on the preview which outlines many of the points I alluded to. From respected Russian analyst site Starshe Edda:
"Older than the Edda: "Having been watching the SVO for almost a year and a half, anyone sees a certain impasse in military thought in the field of offensive. And this applies equally to us and Americans. It becomes very difficult to break through the prepared defense line to the operational depth with a concentrated blow of a mechanized fist. The sky is completely controlled by UAV operators, artillery, aviation, ATGMs, kamikaze drones, minefields, take out attacking formations very quickly and in fact only small infantry units can break through the defense line, under the cover of tanks operating from the maximum distance, or even with a ZOP in general. I will make a reservation that we are talking about a war between technically approximately equal opponents.
Assault detachments can break through the line, but only to a tactical depth. They take one strip of fortifications, get hit by artillery, and at this time the enemy is already equipping another, just a few hundred meters away. This is a typical situation for WWII, when even chemical weapons and the first tanks had a short-term effect.
Under such circumstances, the main role begins to play the destruction of the enemy on the front line and in the rear, as well as war fatigue. In this case, we have an absolute advantage: Ukraine has already carried out several waves of mobilization, and now in some areas it has completely switched to a total mob. Given the really very large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev's main reserve, that is, cannon fodder, may soon run out. Therefore, we should not wait for deep breakthroughs with tank wedges, we are waging a war of attrition, first of all, to deplete the enemy's manpower."
I wonder if any final Russian offensive would look a little like the final Franco British American offensive in 1918. That was a grinding advance under creeping artillery supported by tanks. But it was relentless and unstoppable after the big thrusts of the German Spring Offensive. Of course, it was very costly too in terms of allied lives, so Russia will seek to avoid that aspect. It also ended in an armistice rather than the full conquest of Germany, as happened in 1945. That feels likely here too.
I have to wonder, however, how long Ukraine can manage to carry on a defensive strategy such as described. Even with the best ISR in the world, you simply can not carry on an offense or a defence without adequate personnel, weaponry and ammunition. Ultimately, it would seem to me, would that ISR capability become little more than a TV show where NATO watches with dismay as Russian troops overrun Ukrainian positions with little or no resistance, and with no prospect of negotiations?
The West it seems to me are paying more attention to the Twitter War than the real one, and burning Leopards and Bradleys are bad for optics. So regardless of the actual utility in an assault - and that does appear limited - the west now seems to be pivoting to [wily] dismounted attacks. I fail to see how what amounts to little more than trench raids is going to achieve anything much. As you correctly point out, it is simply a recipe for massive casualties. It is 101 defensive tactics to pre-register your own positions with artillery, withdraw from them and then smother the attackers with shellfire when they advance. The western MSM will annouce the liberation of a few abondoned villages and a few km of ground but never mention the cost. And Milley has to know he is talking rubbish.
"I will make a reservation that we are talking about a war between technically approximately equal opponents."Where does Russian Air power and hypersonic missiles fit in to this analysis? The analysis is it boils down to war fatigue? no geopolitical nor strategic issues?
You have hinted several times that neither side can operate offensive operations successfully, including the Russians. In the initial Russian assault, several groups went deep into the Ukraine. They captured both biotech laboratories doing genetic manipulations of bio-weapons (A major PR win that flopped because MSM didn't pick it up), and they captured the Chernobyl reactor apparently so it could not be used as a weapon source. These were actually big achievements everyone ignores deep into the Ukraine. I have seen American special forces take over enemy fortifications in helicopter assaults. If the army is all at the front and losing, put rangers between them and their supplies. And I can not imagine any defensive lines holding up to the flame throwers. It seems this is a highly negotiated war, but how do you negotiate with someone who is not agreement capable, unless they are more afraid of you than your opponent?
The Ukrainian Mosquito tactics may just work. It seems that they are indeed pushing the russians back and mining trenches can only work so far. What can the Russians do about it? That is my question.
They are using the Wagner tactics, it seems, but those are only really useful for Urban assaults, and even then you take much more losses as Wagner themselves demonstrated. So Ukraine is now doing what they and the West always meme Russia is doing, using human waves. Those can work, but so long as you have the humans. What happens when they run out of them?
Like Grant vs Lee. Grant wasn't trying to take Richmond like previous Federal commanders. He wanted a War of attrition to destroy the Confederate Army which he did.
A lot of important info here on the geopolitics behind the Uke War and the REAL battlefield conditions of the Uke enemy being destroyed in NO UNCERTAIN TERMS making for no sleep for the Lying Western Warmongers guilty of crimes against humanity, especially the ROT that is Biden, Nuland, Sullivan, Blinken, Austin and Milley and their serial sociopathic lying World Press enablers. This TELLS IT ALL! And the NEWS is Great for the GOOD GUYS!
Russia using Syria to inflict damage on USA makes sense. US troops there are vulnerable and you can use Syria to do the dirty work. Also, a stabilized Assad really helps Russian interests in the area.
As for NATO I'm pretty sure it's in the charter that no one can join who has open hostiles. Pretty sure this would include any sort of cease fire agreement. I'm pretty sure that if polish troops attacked Russian troops in Ukraine and Russia attacked Poland in response they can't enact article 5.
Again the poll doesn’t have the option I want (or a combination) 😉
It is a win for Ukraine but not major and it won’t matter in the long run.
As for Erdogan, it really shows the extent that he can be trusted. Look, we can try to make excuses for him and Russia officially might do that both to minimize what happened and keep the relationship as is (at least publicly). But the reality is this guy cannot be trusted. Not only that, but has shown that he can flip on a dime. You cannot create a lasting relationship that you can depend on with someone like that. The Kremlin should treat him from that perspective.
In other words, go at it alone, do whatever needs to be done disregarding what he wants and plan for any agreements to be broken. So if something is valuable, don’t share it. Don’t build any nuclear plants. Don’t get into any long term deals. Don’t get into any deals that cost too much to get out of. Everything is temporary, transactional, and reversible.He doesn’t seem to understand carrots very much either so most motivations need to be of the stick variety.
As far as I’m concerned, he made his bed - he should sleep in it.
I think you misread the nature and the levels of agreement between allies such as Russia and Turkey in this war, the same could be said about the intricacies of the Russia China relationship
Putin will always allow Erdogan to re inforce his middleman position with gestures such as this, and both understand that such flexibility and understanding is in the interests of both and to the loss of the westies
For Turkey to retain and to increase usefulness as a go between, as perceived in the West, Erdogan has act as if he can be useful in this celebrity propoganda fashion that the westies are addicted to
When Germany shifts manufacturing to Turkey, it is under cover of this kind of news squawk
I understand the argument. But I just wonder to what level is that acceptable. The Azov thing is more of an embarrassment than changing anything substantial. But what if the pressure is higher, the gun is larger to his head. Will he relent? Will he do something that seriously hurts Russia?
It’s just that this is not the first time this happens. Also he just started his term so I assume his position is secure, then why do it?
I’m open to some back channel diplomacy going on but the optics do not look good. Also judging by how the west treats him he responds better to negative incentives than positive ones. Seems to me that Russia is trying hard to build a relationship based on goodwill but it doesn’t seem to be sticking.
All that is not to say cut off all relations but you know - be more careful. And I haven’t even touched upon that all of it is built on one man, Erdogan. He goes and you’ve lost at least half of your influence. So a rethink of the engagement policy is warranted.
The R-T relationship is based on self interest; this can be assessed both according to the current situation and to the historical, in order to measure the long term structural foundations
The alliance between Russia and Turkey, in most political and economic aspects, suits everyone, both in these countries, but in the westies as well
(In this war) Everyone needs a go between, the best are seen to be efficiently self serving – there is no such commodity as good will – results are all
Westies are puzzled and frustrated, but they are in fact satisfied with and reliant upon the game that Erdogan is playing, even if they enjoy whining about him…. the west is addicted to whining – the alternative is nowhere, or…..er… China…
Of course the R-T relationship functions according to the brilliance and understanding of the two lead players, but this is only possible within the structural and objective reality of the situation : apart from westie attempts to gain leverage with Erdogan through election bending it is clear they can not get rid of him, and having him in opposition would be worse
Another relationship which the westies can not understand is that between China and Russia : here again this willful ignorance is masked by loud mouthed cries that Russia is a gas pump, or is China’s slave, and various other pleas to persuade their own citizens that they master the situation
EXACTLY-- we westerners need to understand these players do not play by OUR rules. When will we get that? Such old and different cultures , which Russia and Turkey, China very much have as well as thousands of years more of history and political struggles know more moves than we can even fathom.
Whether they are military or geopolitical. People need to relax sit back and learn.
The way the West deals with Erdogan is putting in a lot of effort, time, and money to screw things up for him. Then when they want something from him they tell him we will slow down this chaos generation machine if you give us X.
Russia on the other hand strikes deals that are win-win but for the most part more of a win for Turkey, to build goodwill and create more connections between the two states. For example, the grain deal seemed to benefit Russia as much so why not letting him get the win, but was clear early on that the EU is not playing ball so it's risks/costs outweighed its benefits, and the only reason it renewed was to placate Erdogan. There are other examples from the Syrian war. In short, they are positive deals (some hard to get out of) that benefit Turkey more than Russia and which Erdogan doesn't mind losing vs avoiding the West harm.
Saying the West don't understand the relationship is coping, and yes, of course they're ok with it. Same with Erdogan. All he has to do is threaten Russia of going more to the West and boom! He gets more. He doesn't do the inverse because he knows the West will just double down on f'cking more $hit up for him.
I'm not saying I have the perfect solution and the people in Russia's security council are much smarter and knowledgeable than I am, but the current engagement policy is not effective and need to be adjusted.
I’ll agree with you that all the west has to offer Turkey, on the surface, is merely election fiddling and terrorism, or selling weapons collecting chunks of payment then un delivering
It is curious that it may be thought that such tactics are any more than annoying, andor trivial, and can provoke nothing more than thoughtful and concerted policies to diminish any impact they might have by re inforcing alliances and investments throughout the region, including with China - this is line with Saudi-Iran developements etc etc
US terrorism has been unsuccessful in far less stable countries than Turkey, and with those with far less productive allies than Russia
Perhaps you may give some instances of what the westies have obtained from Turkey via their terrorisms, and of what constructive policies in alliance with Russia USEU have managed to stymy
You reduce the functions of international relations to the level promoted by westie propaganda – ‘Erdogan threatens Russia and obtains what he wants just like that’ – con permiso ….this is as mistaken as what USEU thought when they ‘threatened’ Russia with sanctions
As for ‘double down on f'cking more $hit up for him’, this language is not useful in describing anything except a desire to avoid reality
:) I think the language sums it up quite nicely (although I don't like to swear it is efficient in getting the point across).
When it comes Russia, Erdogan is neutral, and gets to do deals that clearly benefit him - meaning has a positive impact on his political position in Turkey and/or economic benefit. When it comes to the West, he takes actions that do not clearly benefit him (e.g. releasing the Azov guys) and embarrasses Russia ... so why do it? What positive benefit did he get from this? I answered that in my responses, which in short he responds better to relief of negative pressure from the West than increasing positive benefit from Russia.
I think the onus is on you to show that that is not always the case. Show me one example where he clearly took Russia's side - in deeds not words - where he did not get a sizeable benefit from it, cannot be interpreted as "neutral", and wasn't a fake out eventually reversed just to put pressure on the West??
Again - I am not saying break off relations. I am saying the parameters of that relationship needs to change because it is not (as) effective from a Russian point of view.
As for China, that's a very different relationship, and anyone who says Russia is a slave to China is an idiot.
The context in terms of China's relationship with the West (both links and posture) and its power gives China a MUCH bigger incentive to have and maintain a more equal, positive, and permanent relationship with Russia. Also the leadership in China is very different from Turkey and much more long-term looking. In short, the intrinsic and structural incentives makes for a more reliably positive equal relationship in at least the medium term - very different from Turkey and Erdogan.
Germany has just shifted a lot of VW here to Canada (ps we have oil and gas). BIG billions of $ deal -- which we Canadians of course are funding through subsidies (ie our tax dollars). Ah the Nazi car of choice.🤣 Perfect for Herr Freeland.
Thanks for this comment - I understand that many EU companies are shifting out of EU, high profile to US & Canada, but also including China, this including a chunk of VW, despite the politician bleatings, many of lower profile to Turkey
I see the released Azov as potential political headaches for Zelensky, like Lenin being sent to Russia by Germany. The ammo situation is a Howler. The EU portion of NATO is almost disarmed and is no more than a Paper Tiger. There's a specific timing to all this that might become clear but a few more days are needed to matriculate.
As ever, a great update. You and Jacob Dreizin are my go to sources for news on this. Very different styles but very complementary.
“The Russians, who are much more sensitive to losses in manpower, try to avoid close ("contact") battles and, when the Ukrainians go to their trenches, withdraw, leaving the artillery to destroy the enemy. This usually succeeds-Ukrainians die or retreat.”
This sounds like kamikaze tactics to me. I guess that naive, inexperienced soldiers may do this but I wonder for how long until the next ones understand what is going on. East to trumpet such “successes” too from an air conditioned office in NATO land.
The west has become exactly what it says it is fighting. The lauding of the shark sums up their lack of seriousness plus zero professionalism and callousness all in one bite.
There was a historical precedent: Soviet 62nd Army in the early half of the Stalingrad campaign. Chuikov called this tactic "hugging the enemy," if I remember correctly. The idea was mainly to take the German artillery and airpower by threatening friendly fire at a time when Germans still had firepower advantage. IF Ukrainians really believe that Russians are fairly close to breaking point, as the Germans in Stalingrad were (ie if all Western propaganda is believed wholesale) this is not, I think, too irrational. But I'd have a hard time anyone who spent much time on the front could possibly believe that.
It is possible Ukrainians can be saying that as a morale booster, as it is another tactic they try to try to change the situation on the front but market it as a wonderwaffe. but it could not be either. We shall see, I very much could see the tactic working.
If Dimko Zhluktenko wants to kills Russians and makes fun of the Russian being eaten by the shark (which just shows what a contemptible creature he is) one wonders since he looks of military age why he hasn't signed up and is not on the front lines 'killing' Russians... People like him give the term human garbage a home.
Touche'! They're human garbage for sure, a bunch of transgender pukes.
There's a reason why we call them Nazis. Guess who they act like? Nazis! If you ever hear about the Ukrainians doing something wicked in this war and you're not sure if it's true, as yourself, "Would the Nazis have done this?" If the answer is yes, then they probably did it. I'm saying that they are on the moral level, the morally debased level, of Nazis.
This is one reason I don't want Russia to fight dirty like everyone on here advocates. Someone has to maintain the high ground. Russia fights dirty and we lose that high ground. Now you have two sides acting like Nazis. Why support the Russians anymore? What for? Russia gains so much good will by taking the high road here. Leave the low road to the Nazis. They do it so well. You don't get down in the gutter with your depraved enemies. Once you do, you're just like them!
Larry Johnson, at his 'A Son of the New American Revolution' website, expressed similar Erdogan views to yours this morning. I'm gonna be lazy and copy my comment from there:
I still believe it likely that the prisoner release was done for Putin and the grain deal [or for a grain deal that better benefits Russia]. Failing that notion, and looking to the long-term, every broken agreement gives Putin a bigger hand when it comes to negotiations to end this war.
At the least, it was an Erdogan move for the sake of Erdogan. He plays both sides, always for himself. Like many dictators, he will believe in his godhood, and that he can keep balancing on this circus wire. He survived the earthquake scandal. Few sociopaths in our world would've had that ability. I have to give him credit for having walked this far above the ring.
This war is a masterclass in Machiavellianism, from Putin, Erdogan, Zelensky, Orban, Lushenko, Da Silva and India. My country of South Africa hasn't played at their level. The USA has been the worst but it's got the advantage of being supported by a hundred million idiots believing flag waving is more important than human killing.
NB: I do not include the beautiful inquiring minds I follow as part of the idiot American mass. May you copulate and procreate sanity.
The problem with the grain deal, (for everyone else) is EU dropped all tariffs and quotas on ukie grain, they send more per month than they did in a year before. Which is furthering economic woes of all the unfriendly countries, so while Russia gets nothing directly out of the deal, our countries screwing themselves over a little more has a value of its own
Corporations preserve their profit, and gouge during crisis. The other side of the grain deal is that they're sending their goods to Russia via its neighbours. German exports, in the first quarter of 2023, increased:
up 48% Georgia
up 132% Armenia
up 773% Kyrgystan
I took that from the new DW documentary, 'How EU sanctions against Russia are failing'. German news may possess bias but not overtly like the USA's. Watch at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7yofon22AM
The EU screwover is a propaganda win for Russia in poor places such as Africa. But I'm sure Africans would rather eat cheaper than have a moral victory over neocolonialism.
afaik the cheap Ukrainan grain isn't used in food production (otherwise explain why all grain products are now three times more expensive than two years ago), but is used to feed cattle and to be burned as bio fuel.
It's been diverted to the richest yet all the propaganda before the deal, and the renewal of the deal, was about the poor.
You should only include the American ruling regime and the deep state with the oligarch mafia in the US. The vast majority of Americans have, over multiple recent decades, been systematically manipulated, rendered utterly powerless, confused, disorganized, marginalized, and apathetic. Try not to confuse them with those in power and extend your sympathy to them as well!
That's a constant war within me. We're controlled because the same people usually do not inquire, choosing laziness and convenience. Manipulation exists, and its profound, but we're also responsible for our actions. I've seen and experienced too much pain to simply forgive people who look the away. But I'm an activist because I have sympathy for my fellow humans who are similar everywhere in the world.
All that reasoning might apply to the bourgeoisie and intelligentsia classes. But the half of the American population living below or hovering around the poverty line mostly don’t know even where Ukraine is or have the luxury to process such details about the foreign policy crimes of the ruling class, especially while chronically overwhelmed with how they are going to pay for their food next week!
And over half are below average intelligence, and the average number is a low bar.
Lack of ability is always mitigation or forgiveness.
Wow! You must be a genius. Did you personally administer a battery of intelligence tests to a representative sample of Americans? Perhaps you’ve been conducting an “international” study for some time? Care to share the results of your seminal research or the cross national data?
Lol. Genius? By definition 50% are at or below average.
Kidding aside this an important point to make and broadly, not just US.
These are the obvious exceptions, and part of that war in my head. But the middle and bourgeoisie class are less so, no matter the point of manipulation you introduced.
On the other hand, your liberal ideals of personal responsibility and choice don’t stand a chance in light of the long-standing socio-psychological research on effects of propaganda and conformity! I’d be glad to cite if you’re interested.
Edward Bernays was an extra awakening.
As a Canadian and 2 hours to the US border-- all I can say is when you assume something about the US people , you make an ASS of U and ME.
The morality of a country could be proportional to the number of military bases it has and the percentage of global weapon sales.
I am an American and I guess that half the population are candidates for a mass study of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
The guy from Belarus on his Military Summary Channel was the first to hint at the grain deal.
Dima. I listen to him and read a lot of others before the sun rises. Waking early also means catching a Simplicius post.
Grain deal is very important to Turkey as they are Russian biggest importir. They need a lot of Russian grain.
But wouldn’t the release of the Azov prisoners, obviously against Russian approval, damage their grain import?
There have to be some backdoor deals !
Otherwise this whole affair doesn’t make sense.
Yes but it is pretty interesting twist in geopolitics stage. I enjoy this drama actually. Each chess player is doing their own tricks and moves. I hope the internet still on when the game is about to end. so we might witness the winner and the sore loser.
Yep, the war may outrage me but the maneuvers therein are mind sizzling.
Azov guys surrendered-remember. They were the smoke for the move of high ranking German, UK and American NATO officers. Remember this.
We don't have confirmation. If it happened, damn interesting. If it didn't, then the reason for stating it is interesting. The twists and turns continue.
"every broken agreement gives Putin a bigger hand when it comes to negotiations to end this war." They have already made their contempt for honesty crystal clear. Their boasting of their perfidy shows pride, not shame that might be used as leverage.
The ill intent of Germany and France towards Minsk is reason why extra leverage is needed for a better deal. I don't want a Berlin wall for Ukraine, or between Russia and Europe.
The collective west is so completely broken that "negotiations" are only possible on the battlefield. I think each side understands that ultimately this only means unconditional surrender.
The main negotiating leverage that NATO has is Russia's unwillingness to swallow the poison pill that is Ukraine. https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
Either Ukraine is declared neutral in an enforceable way or the war continues.
Very apt comments - thank you
The let them think they are winning element is essential - for Russia to hand Erdogan a useful propoganda victory is part of their own intricate manoeuvers, to hand Z another lets the westies fabulate that they are 'still winning'
Let them eat flag waving!
A much simpler answer: Erdogan constantly plays both sides, and in the case of Russia, he knows he can abuse her because any alternative is likely to be worse for Russia.
Turkey is there, has always been there in history, to be the go between East West
Both current leaders, E and P, appear to master this situation and have worked out how best to take advantage of it
Turkey play's it's own side
Feral, that may well be the truth.
Erdogan has Russia over a barrel in a pretty significant way. It is only Turkiye keeping NATO ships out of the Black Sea.
That is a big deal. Russia's navy there includes missile carriers, subs and a bunch of other ships i.e. they can block the gap. The rub is that this is a drone war so that could come at a hefty price. But Putin is aware of this so it makes sense for him to keep Erdogan buttered.
Exactly - the grain deal is complex but Erdogan would like a better one -however letting Erdogan play fast and loose with NATO and the EU with titbits like the Azov release, EU memberships etc etc, serves his purpose : E is like a very well trained but still wild card, at the end of the day he'll always come home
I disagree. NATO fleet in Black Sea is just big fat targets for Russia. Turkey making profits on behest of Russia as gas hub, parallel import hub and major tourist destination. Losing Rosatom support will dud their new nuclear power plant. Just squeezing some of these will crater Turkey's economy without much trouble to Russia. Erdogan is just being Erdogan.
Good comments thank you - especially as Erdogan is talking about a second nuclear plant - not to mention the China angle
Giving such importance to the azov guys is a westie thing - like those NATO 'ships' they are just target practice
Erdogan is just being Erdogan for sure. Russia doesn’t want to sink NATO ships in the Black Sea and Erdogan invoking Montreux keeps them out, which makes the Black Sea a Russian lake for the time being. A lot of missile launches are down from the Black Sea and they’d be more complicated with NATO ships around.
Why should Russia not welcome the opportunity to destroy 'NATO' ships, even if NATO ships could somehow threaten them, if manned by Uk sailors etc
You appear to believe that unlike the rest of NATO's weapons, 'their' ships are a significant danger to the Russians, so much so they would be over the barrel for this?
It’s not who could sink what but the escalation potential. And it would almost certainly mean Russia wouldn’t have the free access for missile launches.
If your enemy attacks your lines with what he considers to be bigger and better weapons, you are supposed to decline to destroy them on the grounds of 'escalation potential'?
It's only 'escalation' if the wepons you refer to (and say the ships) are indeed more effective - so far they have proven less and less even if more and more expensive
If he should send a navy into waters which you wish to deny him, to protect and to use indeed for your own purposes, you are supposed to do nothing but worry once again and not to destroy the the ships?
One sides escalates the other side de escalates and that's called fighting a war?
You predicate some sort of chivalrous code by which some ('of our') weapons are to be considered more noble than others - this sounds far too much like the nonsensical 'rules based order'
Oh Man, your description of flag waving Americans is spot on. They're the noisy majority, average meaning mediocre, gullible, propagandized and duped.
As much as I criticise, I mustn't forget those amazing antiwar protestors, whistleblowers and documentarians who do their best to make our world a better place. Many hit above their weight.
I'm with you on that. Many Citizen Journalists are pounding away at the lies of the American and European media. As Caitlin Johnstone wrote, "We live in a Narrative Matrix controlled by Plutocratic and military Institutions who have created an ILLUSION of democracy. There's no separation between Press and State.".
Caitlin is a good substack to follow. One of my recommendations.
I'm subscribed to her as well as Simplicius.
Another is Julian McFarlane.
I'll explore tomorrow.
Don't think the global south or zone B has been fooled; the eurotrash "garden" fabricates narratives that are easily defeated.
God I despise Erdog! Speaking of Nazis! The vast majority of Turks are total Nazis! They're simply genocidal ethnic nationalist ultranationalist fascists. They're racist fascists. Racist fascists are called Nazis. Not all fascists are racist. Mussolini wasn't all that racist.
The Turk dogs have changed one bit since they massacred 2.5 million Armenians, 725,000 Greeks, and 1.5 million Assyrians. And it was an Islamic jihad, too. Note that everyone they killed was a Christian?
You have any idea how these Nazi monsters treat the Kurds? There's nothing worse. They persecute and attack all other languages and cultures in Turkey. There are no minorities in Turkey. Everyone is a "Turk." Kurds are "mountain Turks." All other minorities are hyphenated Turks. No non-Turkish language is recognized and war is waged against all non-Turkish tongues in that horrible country.
People have no idea how evil Turkey is. I didn't realize it myself until I started talking to a lot of Kurds and Armenians and studying these goddamned monsters a lot.
Putin, Orban, Lukashenko, and Da Silva are all right. They are masters of playing this game without descending into wickedness. Erdog and Fuhrer Zelensky are lowlifes. I don't like the Indian guy, but he's just a tool. He's done a good balancing act in this war. He can't really act decently because he represents an overtly fascist, Nazi-like political party called the BJP. Their heroes are literal Nazis. Mein Kampf is a big seller in regions where the BJP is big. Hindu nationalists never stopped supporting Nazis and they take after them in a lot of ways.
Russia bombed some of Erdog's scummy Al Qaeda-like Turk Nazi jihadis in Northern Syria. I guess Erdog is mad that his Nazi puppet troops got attacked. He's all but annexed Northern Syria. They ethnically cleansed all the Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, etc. (Turks have a long history of this, no?), they banned all their languages, they instituted Turkish school curriculum, and they promote Turkish culture. He may as well just annex it already. There is a group called Turkmen up there who speak a dialect of Turkish.
Seymour Hersh today, 13 July, speaking about the bribe Erdogan got:
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/fear-and-loathing-on-air-force-one?
You realize that Biden HAS to defend Ukraine to the last, lest the whole money-laundring scheme sees the light of day?
The money-laundering scheme involving much of the DC political class and many officials HAS ALREADY seen "the light of day". Since so many politicians, on both sides, are involved, they cannot and will not use it to attack one another (though that is open for Trump and RFK). Nor will the MSM and big tech publicize it, since they are joined at the hip (Twitter may now be an exception) with the DC political establishment and almost all their revenue depends on a combination of government and corrupt corporations actively connected to government (eg MIC, big pharma and big Ag).
Lex Fridman interviews amazingly. I loved that early in the war, he showed both sides. His latest is with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. F
Fridman starts by explaining why he's interviewing RFK (as opposed to Sam Harris who described why he's not doing the same). Then its adverts, but you can jump to RFK at 8min40sec. He talks about Hitler and moral courage in the face of evil power, and absurdism seeking meaning in a life that tries to overpower us. That's buildup to the Cold war with Russia and the current war in Ukraine. RFK says that he would absolutely sit down with Putin and Zelensky for a peace deal.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-jrp29-196242b7?
"RFK says that he would absolutely sit down with Putin and Zelensky for a peace deal."
That would be a waste of time. Why would VVP sit down with a controlled puppet, an actor, a pretender, that has no decision making powers?
Pragmatism. If the actor remains on stage, he will be involved.
There's the rub. It's an act on a stage where kabuki theater rules the day. Putin and the Russians have commented correctly before that the US is not agreement capable for several reasons, one of which is that the administration/party in power changes so often and often tries to undo/outdo the party they are temporarily replacing. The other thing is that as soon as RFK sat down and talked to Putin, the Borg would see to it that his next speech required passing by a grassy knoll to get there.
Putin is a smart man. I believe he would make an exception and sit down with him.
I believe he would negotiate but not deviate from his current path militarily.
In this specific case.
Agreed.
I would rather the chef than the waiter make me a meal. The USA needs to sign instead of their proxies lying for them. Everything must be done to avoid another Minsk.
Don't forget the Europeans-- all you have to do is watch the traffic " to visit "Zelensky
Twitter is no exception, even with fElon musk in charge. Remember, just like Bozos, he has BIG TIME "defense" and NASA contracts to worry about and we've all seen how vindictive the MIC borg can be.
The surrender of the Azovstal commanders to Turkey was undoubtedly on the condition they be held in custody until the end of the conflict. Erdogan's decision to release them is a clear cut betrayal of his agreement with Russia. His reported new position the Ukraine should be admitted to NATO is further alignment with NATO/Ukraine. He has shown he is not agreement capable, along with the rest of NATO, and has lost any ability to act as an intermediary.
Turkey will pay a large cost for the bribes that Erdogan has collected. It may well affect Turkey's position as a hub for distribution of Russian oil/gas.
Erdogan it seems, much like Modi, he wants to have it both ways IMO. I understand the shaky middle ground especially at the start of the SMO. Best stay neutral and not potentially end up on the winner’s shitlist. However the last couple months have brought one let down after another to NATO.
Not sure why he would be wanting to deliberately ruffle Russia’s feathers now. They are this close to landing a decisive blow which might have the potential to knock the West off their high horse forever.
Why was Greece not chosen as the Gas Hub? Eventually the sanctions on energy will melt away as Europe needs it. There are no substitutes.
Seriously? Greece-- Bidenopolous dear friend? 😳
Think long term.
Think rationally
How would this gas get to Greece?
Erdogan is just being Erdogan, there is not really much surprising about it since even Turk, him, already did many mistakes in the past, the one before this was sending Ukrops their Bayraktar in the beginning (only to be destroyed, all of them).
Was it? were you there when Erdogan and Putin spoke?
No Carol, I was not there. However, in almost 80 years of observing the world, including inside government, I understand well what is normal practice in such arrangements.
Since my comment, Russia has officially complained vociferously about Erdogan's decisison. From https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-directs-rare-outrage-turkey-unauthorized-release-azov-fighters ""Nobody informed us about this. According to the terms of the agreement, these persons were supposed to stay on the territory of Türkiye until the end of the conflict," Peskov asserted."
Uh huh-- and politicians do they not play games during war? Take a look now at what Turkiye has agreed to re: Vilnius NATO meeting, what Erdogan has done in the past vis a vis Russia and the US re F-16 and S-400s-- at the time many like you saw the end of the relationship-- how is that bearing out?
Do families disagree and fight? Do they end everything? 🤔
"Basically the very mal-adapted, under-developed, degenerate dregs of society we all expected, sharing the physiognomical defects of their mentally ill Antifa counterparts."
:)
thank you, i forgot what the word was i wanted to look up by the time i got to the end, lol
Yes propaganda victories are all the Ukraine and the west have and in the end they are irrelevant. And as you said this might be a chance for these Azov guys to be actually killed in action .But at the risk of being called a hawk I'm not happy that the Azov commander is free .Azov committed atrocities in Mariupol and this should never have happened .Erdogan is two faced manipulator and the fate of these men should never have been left in his hands
Propaganda is extremely important for folks on cnn, bbc and especially idiots on zuckbook, musktwatter, jewtube, 9gag and 4chan. They need to hit their daily dose of insanity, otherwise internet will be a boring place.
Totally agree--its their life blood at this point. The chattering classes.
Got gnashing my teeth listening how the Snake Island is theirs. USSR stole it in 1947 from Romania. I do pray and hope it will ultimately fall on Russia's hands, so that no US installations get built there.
One recent rumor stated that Russia may retake Snake Island soon now that the grain deal will allegedly be axed for good. It has some plausibility, though I doubt it, but we'll see.
Recall, that Russia "officially" gave up the island as part of the goodwill gesture to begin the grain deal.
However, personally I:
1. doubt Russia's ability to hold the island under threat of Ukrainian artillery barrage as the air defense can't do anything against artillery fired from mainland
2. doubt that the grain deal is necessarily finished as some expect due to the perceived Turkish betrayal vis a vis the Azov situation
But we'll see, I'm just reporting the 'rumor'.
Agreed on snake island. Russia won’t take it.
The grain deal though as far as I can see was already dead. The Azov incident just put the last nail in the coffin.
I am commisserating on Russia taking the island after the military operations end, assuming that the outcome will be a Russian victory...
For the record, although it has a nice view, Snake Island is virtually uninhabitable (it's just a mostly flat piece of rock with no soil and no fresh water) and always was until the Russians put a lighthouse on it in 1842 (i.e. during imperial days, not Communism).
Besides its current military usefulness (or lack thereof), the real issue is who controls the economic zone around it (the waters) as it's right at the mouth of the Danube River. The USSR and Romania had a number of agreements and disagreements about this (including whether it's an island or just a rock, literally), but the issue was settled "permanently" in 1997 when Romania ceded it to Ukraine.
Also, Romania only officially "owned" the island from 1920-1948, not 1947. And all this changing of hands was done via official treaties.
In 1877, following the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, the Ottoman Empire gave the island and Northern Dobruja region to Romania, as a reimbursement for the Russian annexation of Romania's Southern Bessarabia region.
As part of the Romanian alliance with Russia, the Russians operated a wireless station on the island, which was destroyed on 25 June 1917 when it was bombarded by the Ottoman cruiser Midilli (built as SMS Breslau of the German Navy). The lighthouse (built by Marius Michel Pasha in 1860) was also damaged and possibly destroyed.
The 1920 Treaty of Versailles reconfirmed the island as part of Romania. The lighthouse was rebuilt in 1922.
Name one place in the world Russia can kill top Azov brass and nobody'll make more of a stink about it than they already are.
It's like releasing a bunch of cattle into a field. Tag, release and track--if the Azov smarter ones (oxymoron??) go to Europe--well that will be interesting. Just imagine what the Russians could have done with these guys during their "containment" in Turkey. Oh yes the FSB was there watching them. What would the CIA do Larry?
The Azov leaders have a Hobson's choice, if they have a choice at all rather than being told by Zelensky "you will do this, or you will die in a mysterious and tragic helicopter accident". If they flee to safety in the rest of Europe, which will be a major blow to UAF morale at a time when such is unsustainable. (Set aside for a moment the fate of Litvinenko.) If they stay 'somewhere safe' in the Ukraine Russia will spend a lot of effort to track them down and send a long-range welcome home present. If they go tot he front lines, the very best they can hope for is to live like Sirsky on a wing and a prayer instead of disappearing into a Russian trench somewhere as a 'mosquito'.
It appears much of DARPA's interest in vaccines is connected with injectable materials that provide ways to track and trace individuals of interest. I'm sure Russia will have similar tech.
The U.S. has thousands of Abrams tanks sitting in boneyards. They've been rolling them off the manufacturing lines without lubricants or fuel for years now, and plopping them straight into storage depots. Why haven't those MBTs been offered to Ukraine?
I really wonder if Budanov and Zaluzhny are actually alive. I believe the Budanov in the video is a double. Still haven't gotten any audio from either of them since their original disappearances (Zaluzhny, when his Telegram channel went silent, and Budanov, when the missile hit HQ in Kiev), it would be easy to prove they're alive by having them talking into a microphone about some current event (so it could be compared to older audio known to be them)
Well, it is strange that Zaluzhny didn't appear present at the Azov gathering. Meanwhile Budanov has been acting strange ever since his reappearance.
As for the Abrams, well, as I understand it: U.S. has about 2500 active Abrams and another ~3500 in storage (give or take). However, a good portion of the ones in storage (likely the majority) are M1A1, i.e. the most ancient and original variant.
I'm not sure if there's any official literature on how many of the 3500 in storage are M1A1s, it could be much more than we think, it might be even almost all of them for all we know.
With that said, the M1A1s are still probably better than any of the 105mm barreled stuff I was discussing in the article, but they are still difficult to maintain and may be very difficult or time-consuming for U.S. to un-mothball (not sure).
Also, they make up a strategic reserve for the U.S. given the fact that they don't produce anymore tanks, so U.S. would be very wary to dip into its reserve as that now affects their own national security in terms of a potential future war against Russia/China.
also very difficult to run, needing specialized fuel, and being too heavy for Ukrainian roads and bridges. Readiness levels of all "active" US military hardware is poor- my guess is 60%, so probably only 1500 ABrams usable, and with their legendary break down rate, attrition in just getting to the front is likely non-negligible.
The gas turbine engine in an Abrams tank can use a variety of fuels, including jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and marine diesel, so no, it does not need specialised fuel, the down side is that it is not as robust as a diesel engine and prone to overheating and maintenance issues. The other points you make are valid. Regards.
They still produce them, just like 1-2 a month(WAG). The SEP 4s started rolling out a couple of months ago. Next Gen thermal with enhanced capability to see through fog, rain, and smoke. Which means they've figured out how to defy physics, but I believe their claims.
The Abrams promised to Ukraine were/are greatly delayed by replacing the secret armor with older stuff.
AI
Russia has got to stop letting nato commanders go, it goes all the way back to Debaltsve.
Finding americans from generals to mercs and liquidating them should be a priority
This is the way.
I believe Russia has indeed starting doing just that.
come on spam, we knew Russia use it as a bargain, e.g. POW exchange.
Thats how YOU would run a war.
true
How do the Russian assault tactics differ from the AFU? We have both happening simultaneously don't we?
The old WW2 days of maneuver warfare seem to be obsolete with the advent of ISR and precision, standoff strike.
I've covered it before but intend to cover it at length again in the near future because the fact is, Russia does not have any magical advantages over Ukraine that would allow them to successfully conduct assaults / offensives. Both sides are inhibited by the same exact issues of: 1. ubiquitous mining and 2. complete drone overwatch on every front.
This means that Russia's own ability to *truly* conduct a breakthrough offensive in the future is also in question.
The one big advantage Russia has that may mitigate this is that Russia is the god of artillery. Artillery alone could allow them to decimate Ukraine's lines little by little, just by virtue of sheer attrition (well, this is in conjunction to airpower and some light assaulting as well). But in terms of full out maneuver warfare with massive breakthroughs to the operational rear like in WW2, it's simply not possible. It's not going to happen for ANYONE. The U.S. themselves would not be able to do it in this environment.
I was saving this to post in an upcoming article but you can get first dibs on the preview which outlines many of the points I alluded to. From respected Russian analyst site Starshe Edda:
"Older than the Edda: "Having been watching the SVO for almost a year and a half, anyone sees a certain impasse in military thought in the field of offensive. And this applies equally to us and Americans. It becomes very difficult to break through the prepared defense line to the operational depth with a concentrated blow of a mechanized fist. The sky is completely controlled by UAV operators, artillery, aviation, ATGMs, kamikaze drones, minefields, take out attacking formations very quickly and in fact only small infantry units can break through the defense line, under the cover of tanks operating from the maximum distance, or even with a ZOP in general. I will make a reservation that we are talking about a war between technically approximately equal opponents.
Assault detachments can break through the line, but only to a tactical depth. They take one strip of fortifications, get hit by artillery, and at this time the enemy is already equipping another, just a few hundred meters away. This is a typical situation for WWII, when even chemical weapons and the first tanks had a short-term effect.
Under such circumstances, the main role begins to play the destruction of the enemy on the front line and in the rear, as well as war fatigue. In this case, we have an absolute advantage: Ukraine has already carried out several waves of mobilization, and now in some areas it has completely switched to a total mob. Given the really very large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev's main reserve, that is, cannon fodder, may soon run out. Therefore, we should not wait for deep breakthroughs with tank wedges, we are waging a war of attrition, first of all, to deplete the enemy's manpower."
Thanks, this has become the most obvious tactical dilemma and you've confirmed it. "Big arrow" advances are a 20th century relic at this point.
I wonder if any final Russian offensive would look a little like the final Franco British American offensive in 1918. That was a grinding advance under creeping artillery supported by tanks. But it was relentless and unstoppable after the big thrusts of the German Spring Offensive. Of course, it was very costly too in terms of allied lives, so Russia will seek to avoid that aspect. It also ended in an armistice rather than the full conquest of Germany, as happened in 1945. That feels likely here too.
I have to wonder, however, how long Ukraine can manage to carry on a defensive strategy such as described. Even with the best ISR in the world, you simply can not carry on an offense or a defence without adequate personnel, weaponry and ammunition. Ultimately, it would seem to me, would that ISR capability become little more than a TV show where NATO watches with dismay as Russian troops overrun Ukrainian positions with little or no resistance, and with no prospect of negotiations?
The West it seems to me are paying more attention to the Twitter War than the real one, and burning Leopards and Bradleys are bad for optics. So regardless of the actual utility in an assault - and that does appear limited - the west now seems to be pivoting to [wily] dismounted attacks. I fail to see how what amounts to little more than trench raids is going to achieve anything much. As you correctly point out, it is simply a recipe for massive casualties. It is 101 defensive tactics to pre-register your own positions with artillery, withdraw from them and then smother the attackers with shellfire when they advance. The western MSM will annouce the liberation of a few abondoned villages and a few km of ground but never mention the cost. And Milley has to know he is talking rubbish.
So true.
Yesterday, July 10, some greenhorn Journalist on German tv enthusiastically promoted the delivery of F 16 s to Ukraine….
One puts the f in the h and moans.
It is my considered opinion that Russia doesn't want to have a breakthrough offensive.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
Interesting post on your substack which spells out what many intelligent commentors have since come to conclude
All those urging Russia to a grand offensive, many of these masquerade as Russian 'supporters', are either fools or ignorant or....fantassins
"I will make a reservation that we are talking about a war between technically approximately equal opponents."Where does Russian Air power and hypersonic missiles fit in to this analysis? The analysis is it boils down to war fatigue? no geopolitical nor strategic issues?
You have hinted several times that neither side can operate offensive operations successfully, including the Russians. In the initial Russian assault, several groups went deep into the Ukraine. They captured both biotech laboratories doing genetic manipulations of bio-weapons (A major PR win that flopped because MSM didn't pick it up), and they captured the Chernobyl reactor apparently so it could not be used as a weapon source. These were actually big achievements everyone ignores deep into the Ukraine. I have seen American special forces take over enemy fortifications in helicopter assaults. If the army is all at the front and losing, put rangers between them and their supplies. And I can not imagine any defensive lines holding up to the flame throwers. It seems this is a highly negotiated war, but how do you negotiate with someone who is not agreement capable, unless they are more afraid of you than your opponent?
The Ukrainian Mosquito tactics may just work. It seems that they are indeed pushing the russians back and mining trenches can only work so far. What can the Russians do about it? That is my question.
They are using the Wagner tactics, it seems, but those are only really useful for Urban assaults, and even then you take much more losses as Wagner themselves demonstrated. So Ukraine is now doing what they and the West always meme Russia is doing, using human waves. Those can work, but so long as you have the humans. What happens when they run out of them?
Like Grant vs Lee. Grant wasn't trying to take Richmond like previous Federal commanders. He wanted a War of attrition to destroy the Confederate Army which he did.
A lot of important info here on the geopolitics behind the Uke War and the REAL battlefield conditions of the Uke enemy being destroyed in NO UNCERTAIN TERMS making for no sleep for the Lying Western Warmongers guilty of crimes against humanity, especially the ROT that is Biden, Nuland, Sullivan, Blinken, Austin and Milley and their serial sociopathic lying World Press enablers. This TELLS IT ALL! And the NEWS is Great for the GOOD GUYS!
Russia using Syria to inflict damage on USA makes sense. US troops there are vulnerable and you can use Syria to do the dirty work. Also, a stabilized Assad really helps Russian interests in the area.
As for NATO I'm pretty sure it's in the charter that no one can join who has open hostiles. Pretty sure this would include any sort of cease fire agreement. I'm pretty sure that if polish troops attacked Russian troops in Ukraine and Russia attacked Poland in response they can't enact article 5.
Actually, there are no rules about accession other than it has to be via a unanimous vote by all members.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
Again the poll doesn’t have the option I want (or a combination) 😉
It is a win for Ukraine but not major and it won’t matter in the long run.
As for Erdogan, it really shows the extent that he can be trusted. Look, we can try to make excuses for him and Russia officially might do that both to minimize what happened and keep the relationship as is (at least publicly). But the reality is this guy cannot be trusted. Not only that, but has shown that he can flip on a dime. You cannot create a lasting relationship that you can depend on with someone like that. The Kremlin should treat him from that perspective.
In other words, go at it alone, do whatever needs to be done disregarding what he wants and plan for any agreements to be broken. So if something is valuable, don’t share it. Don’t build any nuclear plants. Don’t get into any long term deals. Don’t get into any deals that cost too much to get out of. Everything is temporary, transactional, and reversible.He doesn’t seem to understand carrots very much either so most motivations need to be of the stick variety.
As far as I’m concerned, he made his bed - he should sleep in it.
We have to assume that every leader not explicitly supporting Russia has a gun to their head - literally or figuratively.
I think you misread the nature and the levels of agreement between allies such as Russia and Turkey in this war, the same could be said about the intricacies of the Russia China relationship
Putin will always allow Erdogan to re inforce his middleman position with gestures such as this, and both understand that such flexibility and understanding is in the interests of both and to the loss of the westies
For Turkey to retain and to increase usefulness as a go between, as perceived in the West, Erdogan has act as if he can be useful in this celebrity propoganda fashion that the westies are addicted to
When Germany shifts manufacturing to Turkey, it is under cover of this kind of news squawk
I understand the argument. But I just wonder to what level is that acceptable. The Azov thing is more of an embarrassment than changing anything substantial. But what if the pressure is higher, the gun is larger to his head. Will he relent? Will he do something that seriously hurts Russia?
It’s just that this is not the first time this happens. Also he just started his term so I assume his position is secure, then why do it?
I’m open to some back channel diplomacy going on but the optics do not look good. Also judging by how the west treats him he responds better to negative incentives than positive ones. Seems to me that Russia is trying hard to build a relationship based on goodwill but it doesn’t seem to be sticking.
All that is not to say cut off all relations but you know - be more careful. And I haven’t even touched upon that all of it is built on one man, Erdogan. He goes and you’ve lost at least half of your influence. So a rethink of the engagement policy is warranted.
These worries are not warranted
The R-T relationship is based on self interest; this can be assessed both according to the current situation and to the historical, in order to measure the long term structural foundations
The alliance between Russia and Turkey, in most political and economic aspects, suits everyone, both in these countries, but in the westies as well
(In this war) Everyone needs a go between, the best are seen to be efficiently self serving – there is no such commodity as good will – results are all
Westies are puzzled and frustrated, but they are in fact satisfied with and reliant upon the game that Erdogan is playing, even if they enjoy whining about him…. the west is addicted to whining – the alternative is nowhere, or…..er… China…
Of course the R-T relationship functions according to the brilliance and understanding of the two lead players, but this is only possible within the structural and objective reality of the situation : apart from westie attempts to gain leverage with Erdogan through election bending it is clear they can not get rid of him, and having him in opposition would be worse
Another relationship which the westies can not understand is that between China and Russia : here again this willful ignorance is masked by loud mouthed cries that Russia is a gas pump, or is China’s slave, and various other pleas to persuade their own citizens that they master the situation
EXACTLY-- we westerners need to understand these players do not play by OUR rules. When will we get that? Such old and different cultures , which Russia and Turkey, China very much have as well as thousands of years more of history and political struggles know more moves than we can even fathom.
Whether they are military or geopolitical. People need to relax sit back and learn.
I respectfully disagree.
The way the West deals with Erdogan is putting in a lot of effort, time, and money to screw things up for him. Then when they want something from him they tell him we will slow down this chaos generation machine if you give us X.
Russia on the other hand strikes deals that are win-win but for the most part more of a win for Turkey, to build goodwill and create more connections between the two states. For example, the grain deal seemed to benefit Russia as much so why not letting him get the win, but was clear early on that the EU is not playing ball so it's risks/costs outweighed its benefits, and the only reason it renewed was to placate Erdogan. There are other examples from the Syrian war. In short, they are positive deals (some hard to get out of) that benefit Turkey more than Russia and which Erdogan doesn't mind losing vs avoiding the West harm.
Saying the West don't understand the relationship is coping, and yes, of course they're ok with it. Same with Erdogan. All he has to do is threaten Russia of going more to the West and boom! He gets more. He doesn't do the inverse because he knows the West will just double down on f'cking more $hit up for him.
I'm not saying I have the perfect solution and the people in Russia's security council are much smarter and knowledgeable than I am, but the current engagement policy is not effective and need to be adjusted.
I’ll agree with you that all the west has to offer Turkey, on the surface, is merely election fiddling and terrorism, or selling weapons collecting chunks of payment then un delivering
It is curious that it may be thought that such tactics are any more than annoying, andor trivial, and can provoke nothing more than thoughtful and concerted policies to diminish any impact they might have by re inforcing alliances and investments throughout the region, including with China - this is line with Saudi-Iran developements etc etc
US terrorism has been unsuccessful in far less stable countries than Turkey, and with those with far less productive allies than Russia
Perhaps you may give some instances of what the westies have obtained from Turkey via their terrorisms, and of what constructive policies in alliance with Russia USEU have managed to stymy
You reduce the functions of international relations to the level promoted by westie propaganda – ‘Erdogan threatens Russia and obtains what he wants just like that’ – con permiso ….this is as mistaken as what USEU thought when they ‘threatened’ Russia with sanctions
As for ‘double down on f'cking more $hit up for him’, this language is not useful in describing anything except a desire to avoid reality
:) I think the language sums it up quite nicely (although I don't like to swear it is efficient in getting the point across).
When it comes Russia, Erdogan is neutral, and gets to do deals that clearly benefit him - meaning has a positive impact on his political position in Turkey and/or economic benefit. When it comes to the West, he takes actions that do not clearly benefit him (e.g. releasing the Azov guys) and embarrasses Russia ... so why do it? What positive benefit did he get from this? I answered that in my responses, which in short he responds better to relief of negative pressure from the West than increasing positive benefit from Russia.
I think the onus is on you to show that that is not always the case. Show me one example where he clearly took Russia's side - in deeds not words - where he did not get a sizeable benefit from it, cannot be interpreted as "neutral", and wasn't a fake out eventually reversed just to put pressure on the West??
Again - I am not saying break off relations. I am saying the parameters of that relationship needs to change because it is not (as) effective from a Russian point of view.
As for China, that's a very different relationship, and anyone who says Russia is a slave to China is an idiot.
The context in terms of China's relationship with the West (both links and posture) and its power gives China a MUCH bigger incentive to have and maintain a more equal, positive, and permanent relationship with Russia. Also the leadership in China is very different from Turkey and much more long-term looking. In short, the intrinsic and structural incentives makes for a more reliably positive equal relationship in at least the medium term - very different from Turkey and Erdogan.
Germany has just shifted a lot of VW here to Canada (ps we have oil and gas). BIG billions of $ deal -- which we Canadians of course are funding through subsidies (ie our tax dollars). Ah the Nazi car of choice.🤣 Perfect for Herr Freeland.
Thanks for this comment - I understand that many EU companies are shifting out of EU, high profile to US & Canada, but also including China, this including a chunk of VW, despite the politician bleatings, many of lower profile to Turkey
I see the released Azov as potential political headaches for Zelensky, like Lenin being sent to Russia by Germany. The ammo situation is a Howler. The EU portion of NATO is almost disarmed and is no more than a Paper Tiger. There's a specific timing to all this that might become clear but a few more days are needed to matriculate.
Excellent point.
As ever, a great update. You and Jacob Dreizin are my go to sources for news on this. Very different styles but very complementary.
“The Russians, who are much more sensitive to losses in manpower, try to avoid close ("contact") battles and, when the Ukrainians go to their trenches, withdraw, leaving the artillery to destroy the enemy. This usually succeeds-Ukrainians die or retreat.”
This sounds like kamikaze tactics to me. I guess that naive, inexperienced soldiers may do this but I wonder for how long until the next ones understand what is going on. East to trumpet such “successes” too from an air conditioned office in NATO land.
The west has become exactly what it says it is fighting. The lauding of the shark sums up their lack of seriousness plus zero professionalism and callousness all in one bite.
There was a historical precedent: Soviet 62nd Army in the early half of the Stalingrad campaign. Chuikov called this tactic "hugging the enemy," if I remember correctly. The idea was mainly to take the German artillery and airpower by threatening friendly fire at a time when Germans still had firepower advantage. IF Ukrainians really believe that Russians are fairly close to breaking point, as the Germans in Stalingrad were (ie if all Western propaganda is believed wholesale) this is not, I think, too irrational. But I'd have a hard time anyone who spent much time on the front could possibly believe that.
It is possible Ukrainians can be saying that as a morale booster, as it is another tactic they try to try to change the situation on the front but market it as a wonderwaffe. but it could not be either. We shall see, I very much could see the tactic working.