I had originally meant to write this up before all the Wagner lunacy occurred. Now we have another lull, so it’s perfect timing to delve into some interesting technical breakdowns. First, as many have seen, a video appeared last week of a Russian Pantsir S1 system engaging a British Storm Shadow missile:
Sir. I'm the smartest motherfucker I know. Literally. Mensa. Worked my way thru college. Passed the CPA exam. Radar air traffic controller. And then I started reading you. When I get the email notice, I stop whatever the fuck I am doing and run and read your article. I skim most articles. I READ your articles. Slowly. Kudos. My idiot country should fire the entire fucking NSA and CIA and hire you. Give you a big tittied secretary and a good corner office with a window.
Won't be long before Artificial Intelligence is embedded into these systems to automate and speed up the target identification and target lock not just within one system but networked AD.
I see this as beneficial for Russia, they get to test and adapt their systems to the Storm Shadow missile while the conflict is still contained in Ukraine. In case it escalates, better they have encountered the Western weapon systems already.
It's always cool to get a close look like this, and I think your breakdown is both thorough and helpful, even if there's always that little voice in the back of my head screaming "But why take a video? Don't you understand how much info that gives your enemy even if you blank out almost everything?!"
The SS is not produced in quantities to make any difference in the battlefield. They have been in play for 2-3 months and made no difference. Ukraine is using them to shoot at bridges amd undefended civilian targets. Whoopie. Russia is not concerned.
You buried the lede. Last two paragraphs illuminate the significance of this event. ‘“ . . . the importance of these videos is that they are one of—if not the—first ever looks of a modern air defense system attempting to track and engage a low observable or stealth target.” Old reporter here. To draw people into the story I would have set this up near the beginning of the piece. Which indicates the west has overinvested in “stealth.” Heaven forbid, but it would be interesting to match up an F-22 or F-35 against Russian AD.
My takeaway is that if Russia is already detecting them, then more efficient solutions are already in the pipeline. If I was asked to describe the Russian military during this conflict, i say evolving, learning and adaptable.
Max Blumenthal has just made a speech to the UN documenting grey-zones audit into Ukrainian aid, a very interesting quote came up " Our audit also revealed the Pentagons 4.5 million contract with a company called Atlantic diving supply to provide Ukraine with unspecified explosive equipment"
The second system detected it farther out because it wasn't head on to the flight path. Your numbers at the beginning were for the frontal cross section. The lateral cross section is likely much bigger, so the angle of detection likely makes a big difference. Having multiple systems will apparently cover a great deal of air space.
These shoot downs of extremely stealthy missiles by the lowest-tier Russian AD is a grave intimation for what would happen should an American "stealth" aircraft such as a B-2 Spirit, F-22 Raptor, or F-35 Lightning II go up against Russian AD. Though, the Serbs' success with shooting down an F-117 Nighthawk "stealth" fighter-bomber back in 1999 with an ancient (by '90s standards) S-125 Neva from 1961 already made the outcome of such a confrontation clear. It was so easy the Serbs made a turbofolk song to gloat about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=333OVHhpK5c
I'm a retired Engineering Research Mathematician with work for the Military, Industry and Academia. One summer some years I took my oldest son to a week-long soccer camp at Notre Dame University. While he was practicing, I visited the Mathematics Library that had a treasure of the works of Russian Pure and Applied Mathematicians. In a word, it was stunning as I was watching the pioneers of my discipline not having, at the time, the ability to use the latest super computers which weren't close to development. These Russian giants did it all by hand which was absolutely staggering! Think where they are now. This article tells you in no uncertain terms!
I had the privilege of sitting down with an F18 super hornet pilot from Canada. He also taught the Australians how to fly the super hornet. He had several missions in the Middle East and later finished his career off in Qatar as an instructor.
After listening to his stories, dog fights and missions, I asked him about stealth.
I asked him what he knew about russias s400 AD system. He said he couldn’t comment on it as it’s classifies but did say it’s very, very, very good.
Here's little old me skulking around the internet waiting for the next Simplicious to drop, and then BOOM. Cheers Simplicious you just made my day !
Sir. I'm the smartest motherfucker I know. Literally. Mensa. Worked my way thru college. Passed the CPA exam. Radar air traffic controller. And then I started reading you. When I get the email notice, I stop whatever the fuck I am doing and run and read your article. I skim most articles. I READ your articles. Slowly. Kudos. My idiot country should fire the entire fucking NSA and CIA and hire you. Give you a big tittied secretary and a good corner office with a window.
Veteran Intelligence Professionas expose the Duplicity and Stupidity of Department of State and Pentagon OxyMorons’.
Won't be long before Artificial Intelligence is embedded into these systems to automate and speed up the target identification and target lock not just within one system but networked AD.
I see this as beneficial for Russia, they get to test and adapt their systems to the Storm Shadow missile while the conflict is still contained in Ukraine. In case it escalates, better they have encountered the Western weapon systems already.
It's always cool to get a close look like this, and I think your breakdown is both thorough and helpful, even if there's always that little voice in the back of my head screaming "But why take a video? Don't you understand how much info that gives your enemy even if you blank out almost everything?!"
The SS is not produced in quantities to make any difference in the battlefield. They have been in play for 2-3 months and made no difference. Ukraine is using them to shoot at bridges amd undefended civilian targets. Whoopie. Russia is not concerned.
You buried the lede. Last two paragraphs illuminate the significance of this event. ‘“ . . . the importance of these videos is that they are one of—if not the—first ever looks of a modern air defense system attempting to track and engage a low observable or stealth target.” Old reporter here. To draw people into the story I would have set this up near the beginning of the piece. Which indicates the west has overinvested in “stealth.” Heaven forbid, but it would be interesting to match up an F-22 or F-35 against Russian AD.
My takeaway is that if Russia is already detecting them, then more efficient solutions are already in the pipeline. If I was asked to describe the Russian military during this conflict, i say evolving, learning and adaptable.
Max Blumenthal has just made a speech to the UN documenting grey-zones audit into Ukrainian aid, a very interesting quote came up " Our audit also revealed the Pentagons 4.5 million contract with a company called Atlantic diving supply to provide Ukraine with unspecified explosive equipment"
Nordstream smoking gun?
The second system detected it farther out because it wasn't head on to the flight path. Your numbers at the beginning were for the frontal cross section. The lateral cross section is likely much bigger, so the angle of detection likely makes a big difference. Having multiple systems will apparently cover a great deal of air space.
These shoot downs of extremely stealthy missiles by the lowest-tier Russian AD is a grave intimation for what would happen should an American "stealth" aircraft such as a B-2 Spirit, F-22 Raptor, or F-35 Lightning II go up against Russian AD. Though, the Serbs' success with shooting down an F-117 Nighthawk "stealth" fighter-bomber back in 1999 with an ancient (by '90s standards) S-125 Neva from 1961 already made the outcome of such a confrontation clear. It was so easy the Serbs made a turbofolk song to gloat about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=333OVHhpK5c
Nice one. I didn't predict it but wondered some years ago if Russia would come up with a way counter stealth. The US's trillions vs Russia's millions.
I'm a retired Engineering Research Mathematician with work for the Military, Industry and Academia. One summer some years I took my oldest son to a week-long soccer camp at Notre Dame University. While he was practicing, I visited the Mathematics Library that had a treasure of the works of Russian Pure and Applied Mathematicians. In a word, it was stunning as I was watching the pioneers of my discipline not having, at the time, the ability to use the latest super computers which weren't close to development. These Russian giants did it all by hand which was absolutely staggering! Think where they are now. This article tells you in no uncertain terms!
I thought there was a red line drawn for attacking crimea? Russia just needs to stop these SS before they get to ukraine, whatever that takes
I had the privilege of sitting down with an F18 super hornet pilot from Canada. He also taught the Australians how to fly the super hornet. He had several missions in the Middle East and later finished his career off in Qatar as an instructor.
After listening to his stories, dog fights and missions, I asked him about stealth.
I asked him what he knew about russias s400 AD system. He said he couldn’t comment on it as it’s classifies but did say it’s very, very, very good.
Take that as you will.