Let’s break down in depth exactly what happened on the night of the Patriot attack and catch up on the known facts and speculations. Here’s what is known so far: Russia was said to have conducted a layered, multi-vectored attack which came from various sides including north, east, and south, which included both Geran drones as screening cover, Kalibr missiles, Kh-101s, and finally the Kinzhals. The attack also likely included other cheaper types of drones as decoys to saturate the air defense, and in fact Kiev does attest to that, as in their official ‘shoot down’ graphic they include several drones they comically ID’d as Orlan ‘Supercum’ which was later changed to ‘Supercam’.
Simplicius, this is the best of the best. Simply your Flag Ship article.
US/NATO forces like to prepare the battlefield with months of air campaigns SEADs before even letting a soldier touch the ground like in 1991 Iraq. Defensive systems such as the Patriot/S-300s etc must operate at 100% efficiency and effectiveness otherwise it is a failure as opposed to offensive systems. You mentioned that perhaps the Patriots were possibly 10-20% effective. I will venture out to say even if the system was say 85% effective that is still a failure for a defensive system for a 2 missile shoot per target. Oversaturation of an 85% effective system will render its mission kill and incapacitation. Sorry if I repeat a lot of similar statements. This war is a 'MAD' war in that Missiles, Artillery and Drones are the dominating factors and the Russians are FORCING the battle to the ground theater as opposed to the Air Theater
One final word. I always hate to use absolute words with the Russian MOD and Russian bloggers use such as 'impossible' Nothing in science and engineering is impossible. The Titanic was thought to be unsinkable. While the Khinzal is difficult to intercept, it is not inherently impossible. The US was studying hit to kill technologies in the 1960s and I would venture they have had a lot of good relative success. Therefore I urge people not to use such terms. Thanks
Makes sense. It goes in the middle. You can't shoot it first, there's no targets to shoot at, as the AD is not active yet. That's where the drones and decoys come in, they bait out the AD to turn on it's radar, and the SEAD weapons lock on to the emitted radiation.
Makes perfect sense, just not SEAD as we traditionally thought of it.
I suppose in the classic Wild Weasel mission, the aircraft play the role of bait, intended to get the SAMs to switch radar on long enough so that the Shrike or Standard ARM can get a lock on it.
Imagine flying into an integrated AD network just to bait the SAMs out... You'd get your ass shot out from under you so fast, you won't even know what happened.
It wasn't fun, which is why casualties among Wild Weasel pilots were so high.
When he was in DOSAAF, Viktor Belenko was told that the Wild Weasel pilots were given drugs to immunize them to fear. He thought to himself that those pilots weren't flying like men who were on drugs.
I can only imagine how thrilled USAF and Navy pilots must be to charge into Russian S-300 (more likely S-400), or Chinese long-range air defence systems (like HQ-22s). Must be real fun.
I reckon the Chinese can rebuild AD systems faster than the Americans can destroy them, especially after China ramps up production and the US starts to wear down a bit due to running low on stock of weapons/aircraft.
I remember reading years ago about how Israel took out all the Syrian air defense network in Lebanon in 1982. They sent UAVs up. The Syrian radars spotted the UAVs and then Israel bombed the radars. Once the radars were out, the rest of the system was effectively dead.
"... First, let’s break down how such an attack happens. Most logically, the cheaper decoy drones are sent in first to see if they can bait out any of the air defense into opening up on them. ..."
Possible that Russia did something very similar with a twist.
We know:
1. Orlan's and Geran's are inexpensive, so Ykraine has a dilemma: track or let the UAV go to its final target
2. The radars have trouble because those UAVs are slow, but they can pick them up
So Russia could fly the Geran, Ukraine can turn on the Patriot targeting radar as normal, and the coordinates are now locked for a Kinzhal kill.
Now Ukraine sees something moving at hypersonic speed on the radar and is forced to discharge the Patriot missile batteries to avoid having massive cook offs as the Kinzhal hits its target.
The key is having lots of radars on ground and airborne with one bunch designated for drones, one for missiles, one for jets, etc. Other detection systems are also needed like IR. IMO, IR is the only way to detect hypersonics except those that are launched from airborne platforms like the Mig-31--an AWACS ought to be able to see such a launch and perhaps track it using IR.
I believe you missed the premise. Having lots of radars means many more targets available for destruction. So instead of hitting one radar, 10 are hit. So what has been accomplished?
Smaller radars also means fewer phased arrays, which limits range and capabilities. Check the size of an AESA radar mounted on an F-15 vs AWACS vs ground-based radar.
IR is a potential solution, but also subject to limitations.
One thing you have completely failed to understand is that all of these solutions cost a lot of money to implement. Every $ € £ ¥ spent on wasted equipment is money that is sucked out of that country's productive economy.
Ukraine is cooked. They have no economy left. Europe and the US can keep throwing money down the corrupt rabbit hole and it won't change the outcome one iota.
If my country had any sense, they would fire the nitwits at the CIA and NSA and hire you. I was Infantry, so not a rocket scientist by any means. I actually understand hypersonics now. Excellent work sir!
Blinken, America's Zel. NATO in Japan? What a sad article on so many levels, great read, but sad w/the insanity of all that was written. They just never stop.
One has to remember that Russia, and now China, have seen this coming and both are now tuned up to take on the collective west. The Ukraine debacle is interesting as it point out the incompetence of western military AND especially, political leadership. Russia is deliberately slow rolling this and efficiently accomplishing the mission to de-militarize, and de-Natify Ukraine. Apparently, the US, which has no real or legal reason to be involved, is all-in to try and destroy both Russia and China. It is due partially to the ridiculous belief in Manifest Destiny and anything that stands in the way of US hegemony is perceived as an existential threat. This is because the US has never fought a war on home soil and doesn't understand just how bad things can get.
I am personally hoping they decide to assist Ukraine by using NATO forces on the ground, and especially in the air, in Ukraine. I believe we will then see a real war take place with the resultant incapacitation of every NATO base and equally important all land and se logistical support as well as port infrastructure. Between Belarus, Ukraine, and Kaliningrad they can hit every base north of Spain. Equally important is to remember the nuclear cruise missiles that can attack from any direction and have no actual range limitations. I also am convinced the real purpose of the Poseidon is to take out SLBM submarines as well as all carrier task forces. Only 3 or 4 are ever out of port at any given time and the ones in port are easy pickings.
The West (and in particular the US) have repeatedly failed to understand the Russian mindset. They keep banking on the insane belief that Russia will back down when faced with such western military greatness. Hence they double down each time. The only thing left now is to bring in US forces. The EU actually doesn't have any effective military at all and I believe Turkey will ignore Article 5 given the US interference in their elections and previous attempted coup.
Should the US decide to send in its ground and air forces to Europe it is pretty much going to escalate until all US forces are deployed. This is the time China will do whatever they are planning. I am also of the belief that China is builing a very large navy for one purpose only. You don't need a Navy to defend Taiwan or China homeland. But, the Navy in modern times is used for force projection. The target which will be ripe once everything is committed to Europe is the US homeland.
I believe PUtin will demonstrate their capabilities one time only and hit something interesting in the US. I was thinking a hypersonic (without nukes) hitting Air Force One parked at Langley might demonstrate the vulnerability and incapability to defend the homeland. Whether they actually can understand this or not is a bigger question.
I also believe Russia is prepared to denuclearize the US and NATO with a non-nuclear first strike on the NATO bases with nuclear ballistic missiles, and nuclear Poseidon's against the nuclear capable Navies.
I hope it doesn't come to that but the US is clearly deranged now and Russia clearly sees this as and end game.
“It’s very difficult to intercept and knock down an object travelling at this kind of speed, so the Patriot has indeed shown itself to be very capable.
Putin will still be unpleasantly surprised to find, however, that today’s Patriots can knock down Kinzhals.”
Delusional propaganda. I am conflicted. I should be proud of technological accomplishments, after all they are supposed to protect my homeland, however as time goes on it becomes manifest that the technology being produced is junk, and just stage props utilized to fleece the treasury. Its humiliating. It appears to be a con....Maybe Hollywood can send an action hero?
"A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it." Mark Twain
Another wonderful piece but not three launchers Simplicious, 5. MOD, whom I trust said: "According to verified information, as a result of a strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kiev a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed on May 16, 2023," the Russian Defense Ministry said.
I'm sure they can see it clear as day since satellites can read gravestones nowadays. Pentagon is in CYA mode big time. There's trillions of dollars on the line here. They were hesitant to send this overpriced junk there for this very reason. So deny deny deny. You'll never see F35s in this theater for same reason. Too much money on the line to have USA's MIC bubble popped.
They might. Old tech. 2400 or so sitting in hangers rusting away. They could explain it away as old equipment unlike Patriot or F35s which are supposedly "the best" and orders would collapse as Russia destroys them.
After those leaked papers said Ukraine's AD were in terrible shape, suddenly all this massive propaganda about how Ukraine is shooting down every single missile and drone, including the hypersonic ones. And all while Zalensky is flying around NATO countries collecting money and weapons? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, and not just the billions of money and weapons they supposedly donate to Ukraine.
Excellent reporting and analysis. Demonstrates deep expertise. Kudos.
Its clear to me that Russia is now demonstrating escalation dominance and a final warning to NATO, and providing them with enough real life evidence to cease and desist in their war efforts. Russia is delivering a master beat down of Ukraine now and starting to flex its military superiority. A man among boys as they say.
We have forecasted that Russian Aerospace would be used agrresively once the front line AD was degraged, and here we are. Russia is grinding and pulverizing the enemy and appears dead serious to put them out of business sooner than expected. We'll se what today's attacks bring, but DD says 1 radar and 5 Patriot launchers were destroyed on the 16th. That is a battery.
NATO is shitting in their pants and being humilated in front of the world. They didn't get the hints before, so now they have been made to look like the stupid fools they are.
Short of massive direct NATO escalation ( low probability), this conflict is heading to a late summer end, if not sooner. How long can NATO stand to be humiliated as a second tier power?
I don't worry about this like some. NATO would get wrecked unless they used nukes and the Generals know it. They have neither man power to front 700,000 Russian Troops in theater nor munitions for more than a week or two. Russia's missile tech is a generation or two ahead of USAs (always has been) and wouldn't even let them build up for a year like they did in Saudi Arabia before Gulf War. Staging areas would be wrecked.
Another meticulously laid out piece of work. You’re putting on a clinic here making understanding this information possible for everyone. I look forward to your updates.
The latest Russian missile barrage on Kiev proves three things. First, the Ukrainians operate the Patriots more and more badly! They could also be drunk. Or have they just now replaced NATO operators! Not that it makes a huge difference in the final operating result. Except for the cost of interceptor missiles.
Secondly, Zelensky probably doesn't know where to spend his nights safer than Zaluzhny and Syrsky! Or has anyone seen a real photo of one in public in the last month? There is talk of the public resurgence of Zaluzhny last week but the last picture I saw of Zaluzhny is over a month old and he was on his knees: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fq4bXgeWwAACqhn?format=jpg&name=medium
And thirdly, Kiev's propaganda is more and more delusional! And no longer bothers to reconcile his delusions with the spokesman of the Air Defense! They began by reporting that they had shot down all the Russian missiles as usual! And the only visual evidence they released was the bullfight with Bairaktar last week in Kiev! Conclusion: very likely not to shoot down any. Except some civilian building in the path of the interceptors. As usual.
P.S. I would say that what Russia did not advance towards hypersonic technology because it needed faster missiles but missiles that the enemy cannot defend. Which of course is also associated with speed but the great advantage of Russian hypersonic missiles today is the fact that they are indefensible and not so much the speed per se! All missiles travel at insane speeds. Hypersonic defense that Russia is thought to already have! And like any weapon the day the enemy manages to stop a hypersonic missile, the weapon loses its competitive edge. Which is why weapons never stop evolving! To gain an advantage over the enemy on the battlefield!
If this assessment is accurate, then the Ukrainian military are poorly handling their Patriot air defense systems. After conducting a launch of its missiles, the system should move to another location. Patriots are highly mobile and can go mobile in a few minutes.
I believe too. Probably even operating the Patriots! That even USARMY Officers have acknowledged their mediocrity several times. Which I believe even the latest evolution never had a success rate greater than 30%. Because the US, in its "Prussian" Offensive Military Doctrine, has always chosen to develop more the air force for blitzkrieg, forgiveness, shock and awe and the aircraft carriers to project forces quickly to dominate all the Oceans of the world. And today it appears that the US MIC of the oligarchs can no longer even develop a decent fighterjet. But now they're going to spend whatever millions it takes on disinformation campaigns to say that the Kinzhal just scratched the paint on the Patriots battery! Which as we all know have already been decimated by drones. Which Kiev is also usually anxious to bring down. Your own drones. But as this conflict is essentially a propaganda conflict, let us also believe in the great success of the last Ukrainian counterattacks.
And they move the batteries. But in the middle of a missile dam? High mobility is an Italian scooter. High mobility of a Patriot battery only in advertising. Have you ever seen the size of the 6 monsters of a single battery? And when it arrives at the new location, it has to be programmed and most likely these coordinates have already arrived in Moscow! You don't deploy a Patriot battery in the courtyard of a building where you hide a tank! And the same with an S-400 battery! But it works as part of an integrated defense. That's why a major NATO military power like Turkey preferred to buy the S-400!
And let's go by parts, Kiev was not obliterated like Baghdad because Russia doesn't want to kill civilians! Because Ukraine has nothing to stop Russia from flattening Kiev! So its a war crime for Ukraine to continue with the Govt and military installations in Kiev with millions of inhabitants! And deploying Patriots in Kiev that do not stop several Russian missiles but generate a large appetite for their destruction, per the statement, is another war crime! If the Patriot is not 100% reliable, it does not deploy and remove from Kiev everything that could motivate the arrival of Russian missiles! Ukraine should have removed all leadership and military installations from Kiev a long time ago and protected the energy infrastructure with much lighter AD like NASAMs or IRIS T, even Avengers and Gepard to shoot down drones! And now they didn't need this ridiculous propaganda in MSM that shot down hypersonic missiles!
And the greatest vulnerability of all Western systems to the AFU, however simple, is that it is impossible to train good operators in a year! Just as the AFU today no longer has intermediate officers to operate a major offensive, which is pure fantasy!
Highly mobile for the Patriot is 6 hours to move and another 90 minutes (in a very well trained crew) to set it back up somewhere else not including travel time. It also would be very obvious to ISR as the train of trucks moving in convoy is easily seen from the air. It is not a mobile system when compared to the S-400. It also requires 80 personnel to operate. Reloads take over an hour as well and again is highly dependent on the crew doing the work. The Patriot is overcomplicated and has a very large supply train that needs to be in place. for these reasons I believe they must be operated by NATO personnel. These were probably retired military on contract and are likely gone now. Trying to recruit more will be a real difficult task.
The other less effective systems are truly mobile and are usually truck or track mounted.
These large multiple launcher systems are tough as they use a command truck, 2 or more launchers, radar truck, generators, maintenance truck, reload cranes, supply trucks, all the tentage for the personnel to live in, mess tent, etc. Moving 80 people and equipment isn't easy and in general the Patriot batteries once set up don't move. The ones surrounding DC haven't moved in a decade. They must be shitting bricks now that it is proven ineffective against Russian (or even Houti) munitions. It isn't new, but this time it is in their face. In the Gulf War it has been shown to be zero % effective and everything else was all lies. The Saudis got hammered by the Houtis who used simple drones and not hypersonic missiles. The Patriot system is all hype.
I saw in UK Yahoo yesterday that they are claiming that not only is the system not damaged but also shot down a Russian Bomber as well proving everything is better than good. Well, hype doesn't win wars.
OK. But let's face it, the political announcement in such secret technologies means little. Just a statement for some reason that I don't see right now. Development starts much earlier! In fact, the development of new weapons in a superpower like Russia never stops. The MIG and Sukoy Bureaus, just to cite two examples, don't just focus on new technologies when they receive orders for a new plane!
The big difference between Russian weaponry and US weaponry, besides totally different military doctrines, is that in Russia it is enormously developed with public money and in the West today its mostly private companies. That they cannot wait 30 years for a new order for jets or missiles. That's why they can't quickly increase ammunition production now either. There is no infrastructure. When the defense industry in the past in the West was also public. And Moscow went through the meltdown of the 90s!
But the defense of countries is intrinsically a public activity because it stems from an obligation of the state towards the population! As long as never exceed insane investment volumes as happened in the USSR to compete with the US! On projects like Star Wars that consumed insane amounts of money on both sides! A real freak! Because the wealth of a state is never infinite. And if we spend too much on defense it will be missed in the economy and, for example, on health care!
There's only 5 major defense companies left (with a few circling around weakling General Dynamics to knock it out of 5th place) thanks to consolidation orders issued by Clinton's secretary of defense. (The remaining four, in no particular order: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing.). Then there are also companies such as BAE and Elbit that are headquartered overseas, but bought up some bargains in the US.
The R&D that small companies could accomplish way back when is now "owned" by the US FFRDCs. PhD's usually end up writing proposals, and not spending too much time inventing.
I'm no rocket scientist, but the idea that the Khinzal can release a payload that can be used for all sorts of purposes, simply wow.
But looking at it's release, it would be somewhat circular or snowflake shaped. Therefore, could logic dictate that your Anti Missile defense ignore the circular noise and concentrate on the center of that noise?
The notion that a Kinzhal can release a payload is very unclear to me.
Certainly it would be extremely challenging to release a usable object at hypersonic speeds - between plasma wall and shock waves, the object would probably be roasted.
At "cruise" speed, it is possible but the value is much less clear since the entire point of being hypersonic is to be very difficult and short time to shoot down - and it isn't clear to me that a small decoy could imitate the hypersonic profile of the Kinzhal (i.e. plasma wall and speed).
most "powerful" radars no matter synthetic aperture, phased array, electronically steered etc need to be line of sight and are effected by curvature of earth. patriot and other ground based radar (the very expensive one for thaad), aegis, the new lockheed big face radar etc! there are more restrictions to go into, but they are mission and geometry based. operationally fixed is a vulnerability..... likely cannot be eliminated.
then there are the advantages of initiative of the attacker over defense!! radar operations have changed very little since ww ii, it is physics anyway! initiative is on the side of blanking radar, blank the sensors and the defensive kill chain does not start..... all defenses (point, enroute, ground based midcourse, ...) are geographically constrained!
if the peoples republic of china goes after republic of china on formosa what are the first assets to be eliminated?
side thought: russia my know more about how patriot 'works' than that the usa after years of test shows at white sands!
I won't say that I grasp ALL of the technical concepts, but this really was fascinating reading and I certainly learned quite a lot. The US/NATO have always made the mistake of underestimating their potential adversaries and their abilities. This should be an "oof" moment for the west but it probably won't be, they will remain stuck in their own self-aggrandizing feedback loop. You can't actually wish yourself into superiority in anything, especially weapons of war! The Russians will inevitably make your wonder weapons go BOOM.
Simplicius, been lurking and reading your posts for a while now. I enjoy the factual no non-sense analysis.
Thoughts on the Kiev Mayor's video of the fragments of the alleged interception of a Kinzhal? Ukraine initially denied the interception, then claimed it was true as a US official also made the claim.
The missile component that the Kiev Mayor showed is indeed similar to a reported accident in Stavropol where a Kinzhal fell off an aircraft. However, in my opinion the two warheads, while similar, have differences in the length of the tip of the nose section as well as what I presume to be the 2 mounting locations. In the Kiev Mayor picture, the mounting area appears indented, whereas in the Stavropol warhead the mountings appear to extend outward from the warhead body.
I think it is possible that most modern/late cold war Russian/Soviet missile warheads are of a similar design (why change a warhead design that works at a given size) which explains the similarity between the "Kinzhal interception proof" and the fallen Kinzhal's warhead. I have heard that Iskander and even the older Soviet Tochka-U has a similar warhead. I cannot find any information on the internal warhead shape of various Russian missiles, but it is possible that even Kalibr cruise missiles share a similar warhead.
Ukraine has access to older soviet missile systems and warheads. I do not believe they actually shot down a Kinzhal, given what you have said in this post. I think that the shown warhead is either a Tochka-U warhead dressed up to be a "Kinzhal" (less likely given the char on the object that leads me to believe it was indeed shot down) or a shootdown of a Kalibr missile that may share a similar warhead. In the background of the video/pictures of the Kiev Mayor's debris gallery I can see what appears to me to be parts of a Tochka-U and fragments that are reminiscent of a Kalibr albeit much smaller than the actual cruise missile.
Well firstly the most important thing to understand is that the claimed Stavropol crash is claimed to be a Kinzhal only by Ukrainians. THere is zero evidence that is a Kinzhal, it has never been confirmed to be one by any authority and in fact all evidence points to it not being one. Ukrainians created the false narrative that it's a Kinzhal at the time just to try to poke Russia but there are a multitude of things that make no sense:
1. the distance from Stavropol to Ukrainian territory in Donbass is over 500km. This is beyond the Kinzhal's likely range, and there is no way that it would be fired from that far. This is not a cruise missile like Kh-101 which can be fired from near the Caspian Sea. You can go test this yourself on google maps, the crash location doesn't even reach Donetsk city or just roughly at 500km. My understanding is Kinzhals have typically been fired from airbases in the north that were on average 200km give or take from their targets.
2. The Ukro supporters themselves identify a radar seeker head on the crash site. Kinzhal has no known radar seeker and there is no literature on the planet that says so. Its guidance is typically listed as inertial navigation (INS) and midcourse update. The Iskander has never had any radar head either in fact no ballistic missile on the planet has a radar seeker. This alone nullifies that from being a Kinzhal
3. none of the parts they color code in their little pictures actually line up apart from the fins which look similar
4. They claim the main bullet-shaped piece is the "warhead". Firstly, the Iskander, whose size can be seen here: https://i.imgur.com/mZERxYW.jpg is listed as having a 500-700kg warhead, this is upwards of 1500lbs or the weight of a car basically.
I show that as comparison cus it's roughly a similar size as the 'warhead' that Klitschko is standing next to, so is a decent comparison. The Tyulpan mortar however weighs 130kg for a standard round, or about 286lbs. Does the 'warhead' next to Klitschko look like it weighs 1200-1500lbs or 500-700kg? Not to me. It looks like it might just slightly heavier than the 240mm mortar.
And yes I used an Iskander warhead as example since I'm assuming Kinzhal's is the same, but in reality no one knows because it's classified, we can only make inferences. Similarly it's possible Kinzhal has some secret radar seeker head but as I said, there's no literature on that, the Iskander it's based on definitely has no radar seeker, nor does any ballistic missile in history.
So what is it that crashed in Stavropol? I don't really have time to do heavy research on it but I saw someone had mentioned P-800 Onyx as a possibility, and at least that fits the profile better. Not only would Onyx be fired from that range rather than Kinzhal due to its longer range, but it has those same fins that look very close, and crucially, it actually has a radar seeker head. Many K-300P Bastion systems were used to launch P800 Onyx at Ukraine in the past. Also, Onyx's warhead is a much smaller 250kg that actually would align more with that size I was referring to, more comparable to the 240mm mortar example.
I see what you mean about the warhead size compared to a person. The Kiev Mayor is a big guy, but the warhead shown definitely fits the 250kg category better than 500kg.
Simplicius, this is the best of the best. Simply your Flag Ship article.
US/NATO forces like to prepare the battlefield with months of air campaigns SEADs before even letting a soldier touch the ground like in 1991 Iraq. Defensive systems such as the Patriot/S-300s etc must operate at 100% efficiency and effectiveness otherwise it is a failure as opposed to offensive systems. You mentioned that perhaps the Patriots were possibly 10-20% effective. I will venture out to say even if the system was say 85% effective that is still a failure for a defensive system for a 2 missile shoot per target. Oversaturation of an 85% effective system will render its mission kill and incapacitation. Sorry if I repeat a lot of similar statements. This war is a 'MAD' war in that Missiles, Artillery and Drones are the dominating factors and the Russians are FORCING the battle to the ground theater as opposed to the Air Theater
One final word. I always hate to use absolute words with the Russian MOD and Russian bloggers use such as 'impossible' Nothing in science and engineering is impossible. The Titanic was thought to be unsinkable. While the Khinzal is difficult to intercept, it is not inherently impossible. The US was studying hit to kill technologies in the 1960s and I would venture they have had a lot of good relative success. Therefore I urge people not to use such terms. Thanks
Ditto. 100% for this article.
Excellent point. You really have to wonder about its efficacy.
Also,
"The US was studying hit to kill technologies in the 1960s and I would venture they have had a lot of good relative success."
Perhaps, but where is it?
Interesting that SEAD goes last, sort of Wild Weasel in reverse.
Makes sense. It goes in the middle. You can't shoot it first, there's no targets to shoot at, as the AD is not active yet. That's where the drones and decoys come in, they bait out the AD to turn on it's radar, and the SEAD weapons lock on to the emitted radiation.
Makes perfect sense, just not SEAD as we traditionally thought of it.
I suppose in the classic Wild Weasel mission, the aircraft play the role of bait, intended to get the SAMs to switch radar on long enough so that the Shrike or Standard ARM can get a lock on it.
That doesn't sound like fun, like, at all.
Imagine flying into an integrated AD network just to bait the SAMs out... You'd get your ass shot out from under you so fast, you won't even know what happened.
It wasn't fun, which is why casualties among Wild Weasel pilots were so high.
When he was in DOSAAF, Viktor Belenko was told that the Wild Weasel pilots were given drugs to immunize them to fear. He thought to himself that those pilots weren't flying like men who were on drugs.
I can only imagine how thrilled USAF and Navy pilots must be to charge into Russian S-300 (more likely S-400), or Chinese long-range air defence systems (like HQ-22s). Must be real fun.
I reckon the Chinese can rebuild AD systems faster than the Americans can destroy them, especially after China ramps up production and the US starts to wear down a bit due to running low on stock of weapons/aircraft.
Well, it has been some time since the pilots of the US military have faced an enemy actually capable of shooting back.
I remember reading years ago about how Israel took out all the Syrian air defense network in Lebanon in 1982. They sent UAVs up. The Syrian radars spotted the UAVs and then Israel bombed the radars. Once the radars were out, the rest of the system was effectively dead.
"... First, let’s break down how such an attack happens. Most logically, the cheaper decoy drones are sent in first to see if they can bait out any of the air defense into opening up on them. ..."
Possible that Russia did something very similar with a twist.
We know:
1. Orlan's and Geran's are inexpensive, so Ykraine has a dilemma: track or let the UAV go to its final target
2. The radars have trouble because those UAVs are slow, but they can pick them up
So Russia could fly the Geran, Ukraine can turn on the Patriot targeting radar as normal, and the coordinates are now locked for a Kinzhal kill.
Now Ukraine sees something moving at hypersonic speed on the radar and is forced to discharge the Patriot missile batteries to avoid having massive cook offs as the Kinzhal hits its target.
The key is having lots of radars on ground and airborne with one bunch designated for drones, one for missiles, one for jets, etc. Other detection systems are also needed like IR. IMO, IR is the only way to detect hypersonics except those that are launched from airborne platforms like the Mig-31--an AWACS ought to be able to see such a launch and perhaps track it using IR.
I believe you missed the premise. Having lots of radars means many more targets available for destruction. So instead of hitting one radar, 10 are hit. So what has been accomplished?
Smaller radars also means fewer phased arrays, which limits range and capabilities. Check the size of an AESA radar mounted on an F-15 vs AWACS vs ground-based radar.
IR is a potential solution, but also subject to limitations.
One thing you have completely failed to understand is that all of these solutions cost a lot of money to implement. Every $ € £ ¥ spent on wasted equipment is money that is sucked out of that country's productive economy.
Ukraine is cooked. They have no economy left. Europe and the US can keep throwing money down the corrupt rabbit hole and it won't change the outcome one iota.
If my country had any sense, they would fire the nitwits at the CIA and NSA and hire you. I was Infantry, so not a rocket scientist by any means. I actually understand hypersonics now. Excellent work sir!
If they had any sense they’d first packed it up and go home and then fire everybody
But we all know they don’t
Common sense is dead, money rules.
Fantastic detailled sitrep, probably the best to date?
You know more than all NATO generals Simplicius. Top job will multi share it.
Evidence US Plans WWIII v Russia, China and ??
https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/05/17/evidence-us-plans-wwiii-v-russia-china-and/
Blinken, America's Zel. NATO in Japan? What a sad article on so many levels, great read, but sad w/the insanity of all that was written. They just never stop.
One has to remember that Russia, and now China, have seen this coming and both are now tuned up to take on the collective west. The Ukraine debacle is interesting as it point out the incompetence of western military AND especially, political leadership. Russia is deliberately slow rolling this and efficiently accomplishing the mission to de-militarize, and de-Natify Ukraine. Apparently, the US, which has no real or legal reason to be involved, is all-in to try and destroy both Russia and China. It is due partially to the ridiculous belief in Manifest Destiny and anything that stands in the way of US hegemony is perceived as an existential threat. This is because the US has never fought a war on home soil and doesn't understand just how bad things can get.
I am personally hoping they decide to assist Ukraine by using NATO forces on the ground, and especially in the air, in Ukraine. I believe we will then see a real war take place with the resultant incapacitation of every NATO base and equally important all land and se logistical support as well as port infrastructure. Between Belarus, Ukraine, and Kaliningrad they can hit every base north of Spain. Equally important is to remember the nuclear cruise missiles that can attack from any direction and have no actual range limitations. I also am convinced the real purpose of the Poseidon is to take out SLBM submarines as well as all carrier task forces. Only 3 or 4 are ever out of port at any given time and the ones in port are easy pickings.
The West (and in particular the US) have repeatedly failed to understand the Russian mindset. They keep banking on the insane belief that Russia will back down when faced with such western military greatness. Hence they double down each time. The only thing left now is to bring in US forces. The EU actually doesn't have any effective military at all and I believe Turkey will ignore Article 5 given the US interference in their elections and previous attempted coup.
Should the US decide to send in its ground and air forces to Europe it is pretty much going to escalate until all US forces are deployed. This is the time China will do whatever they are planning. I am also of the belief that China is builing a very large navy for one purpose only. You don't need a Navy to defend Taiwan or China homeland. But, the Navy in modern times is used for force projection. The target which will be ripe once everything is committed to Europe is the US homeland.
I believe PUtin will demonstrate their capabilities one time only and hit something interesting in the US. I was thinking a hypersonic (without nukes) hitting Air Force One parked at Langley might demonstrate the vulnerability and incapability to defend the homeland. Whether they actually can understand this or not is a bigger question.
I also believe Russia is prepared to denuclearize the US and NATO with a non-nuclear first strike on the NATO bases with nuclear ballistic missiles, and nuclear Poseidon's against the nuclear capable Navies.
I hope it doesn't come to that but the US is clearly deranged now and Russia clearly sees this as and end game.
Your strategic recommendations miss the entire point of Russian (and Chinese) strength: "the US may have the watch, but they have the time."
Lashing out with eacalatory hypersonic demonstrations is unnecessary when one soberly observes US and NATO's ineffectual antics.
Mr. Simplicius has some competition. 😂
https://www.yahoo.com/news/american-patriots-nailed-putin-hypersonic-131555757.html
I pulled this from the linked article
“It’s very difficult to intercept and knock down an object travelling at this kind of speed, so the Patriot has indeed shown itself to be very capable.
Putin will still be unpleasantly surprised to find, however, that today’s Patriots can knock down Kinzhals.”
Ha Ha! That is one of the sentences that struck me too.
Unbelievable! The hubris. The wishful thinking. British media is full of this type of "reporting" and "analysis". Pathetic.
Delusional propaganda. I am conflicted. I should be proud of technological accomplishments, after all they are supposed to protect my homeland, however as time goes on it becomes manifest that the technology being produced is junk, and just stage props utilized to fleece the treasury. Its humiliating. It appears to be a con....Maybe Hollywood can send an action hero?
"A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it." Mark Twain
Peace is cheaper, and I pray for it.
I keep praying one day I will wake up and Mitch Rapp and friends has taken care of all of it. Talk about delusional. One can dream.
And it is humiliating. Once it has been seen, it cannot be unseen. It is painful. Some days I wish I was in the unseeable collect.
Another wonderful piece but not three launchers Simplicious, 5. MOD, whom I trust said: "According to verified information, as a result of a strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kiev a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed on May 16, 2023," the Russian Defense Ministry said.
I'm sure they can see it clear as day since satellites can read gravestones nowadays. Pentagon is in CYA mode big time. There's trillions of dollars on the line here. They were hesitant to send this overpriced junk there for this very reason. So deny deny deny. You'll never see F35s in this theater for same reason. Too much money on the line to have USA's MIC bubble popped.
same for f-16!
They might. Old tech. 2400 or so sitting in hangers rusting away. They could explain it away as old equipment unlike Patriot or F35s which are supposedly "the best" and orders would collapse as Russia destroys them.
I think the F-35 was the final straw when it comes to "allies" getting suckered into paying for these boondoggles.
Fun fact: The Zumwalt Clitoral Combat Ship sucked so bad they didn't bother fixing the flaws, the simply cancelled it.
Lol
After those leaked papers said Ukraine's AD were in terrible shape, suddenly all this massive propaganda about how Ukraine is shooting down every single missile and drone, including the hypersonic ones. And all while Zalensky is flying around NATO countries collecting money and weapons? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, and not just the billions of money and weapons they supposedly donate to Ukraine.
Excellent reporting and analysis. Demonstrates deep expertise. Kudos.
Its clear to me that Russia is now demonstrating escalation dominance and a final warning to NATO, and providing them with enough real life evidence to cease and desist in their war efforts. Russia is delivering a master beat down of Ukraine now and starting to flex its military superiority. A man among boys as they say.
We have forecasted that Russian Aerospace would be used agrresively once the front line AD was degraged, and here we are. Russia is grinding and pulverizing the enemy and appears dead serious to put them out of business sooner than expected. We'll se what today's attacks bring, but DD says 1 radar and 5 Patriot launchers were destroyed on the 16th. That is a battery.
NATO is shitting in their pants and being humilated in front of the world. They didn't get the hints before, so now they have been made to look like the stupid fools they are.
Short of massive direct NATO escalation ( low probability), this conflict is heading to a late summer end, if not sooner. How long can NATO stand to be humiliated as a second tier power?
I don't worry about this like some. NATO would get wrecked unless they used nukes and the Generals know it. They have neither man power to front 700,000 Russian Troops in theater nor munitions for more than a week or two. Russia's missile tech is a generation or two ahead of USAs (always has been) and wouldn't even let them build up for a year like they did in Saudi Arabia before Gulf War. Staging areas would be wrecked.
Another meticulously laid out piece of work. You’re putting on a clinic here making understanding this information possible for everyone. I look forward to your updates.
This is most excellent...
I don’t know what to say you’ve really outdone yourself.
Now, you got so much jam packed in here I’m gonna need to return and study back through it
GOOD work!!
The latest Russian missile barrage on Kiev proves three things. First, the Ukrainians operate the Patriots more and more badly! They could also be drunk. Or have they just now replaced NATO operators! Not that it makes a huge difference in the final operating result. Except for the cost of interceptor missiles.
Secondly, Zelensky probably doesn't know where to spend his nights safer than Zaluzhny and Syrsky! Or has anyone seen a real photo of one in public in the last month? There is talk of the public resurgence of Zaluzhny last week but the last picture I saw of Zaluzhny is over a month old and he was on his knees: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fq4bXgeWwAACqhn?format=jpg&name=medium
And thirdly, Kiev's propaganda is more and more delusional! And no longer bothers to reconcile his delusions with the spokesman of the Air Defense! They began by reporting that they had shot down all the Russian missiles as usual! And the only visual evidence they released was the bullfight with Bairaktar last week in Kiev! Conclusion: very likely not to shoot down any. Except some civilian building in the path of the interceptors. As usual.
P.S. I would say that what Russia did not advance towards hypersonic technology because it needed faster missiles but missiles that the enemy cannot defend. Which of course is also associated with speed but the great advantage of Russian hypersonic missiles today is the fact that they are indefensible and not so much the speed per se! All missiles travel at insane speeds. Hypersonic defense that Russia is thought to already have! And like any weapon the day the enemy manages to stop a hypersonic missile, the weapon loses its competitive edge. Which is why weapons never stop evolving! To gain an advantage over the enemy on the battlefield!
If this assessment is accurate, then the Ukrainian military are poorly handling their Patriot air defense systems. After conducting a launch of its missiles, the system should move to another location. Patriots are highly mobile and can go mobile in a few minutes.
US/NATO operators are more than likely on the ground, or even IN the ground.
I believe too. Probably even operating the Patriots! That even USARMY Officers have acknowledged their mediocrity several times. Which I believe even the latest evolution never had a success rate greater than 30%. Because the US, in its "Prussian" Offensive Military Doctrine, has always chosen to develop more the air force for blitzkrieg, forgiveness, shock and awe and the aircraft carriers to project forces quickly to dominate all the Oceans of the world. And today it appears that the US MIC of the oligarchs can no longer even develop a decent fighterjet. But now they're going to spend whatever millions it takes on disinformation campaigns to say that the Kinzhal just scratched the paint on the Patriots battery! Which as we all know have already been decimated by drones. Which Kiev is also usually anxious to bring down. Your own drones. But as this conflict is essentially a propaganda conflict, let us also believe in the great success of the last Ukrainian counterattacks.
And they move the batteries. But in the middle of a missile dam? High mobility is an Italian scooter. High mobility of a Patriot battery only in advertising. Have you ever seen the size of the 6 monsters of a single battery? And when it arrives at the new location, it has to be programmed and most likely these coordinates have already arrived in Moscow! You don't deploy a Patriot battery in the courtyard of a building where you hide a tank! And the same with an S-400 battery! But it works as part of an integrated defense. That's why a major NATO military power like Turkey preferred to buy the S-400!
And let's go by parts, Kiev was not obliterated like Baghdad because Russia doesn't want to kill civilians! Because Ukraine has nothing to stop Russia from flattening Kiev! So its a war crime for Ukraine to continue with the Govt and military installations in Kiev with millions of inhabitants! And deploying Patriots in Kiev that do not stop several Russian missiles but generate a large appetite for their destruction, per the statement, is another war crime! If the Patriot is not 100% reliable, it does not deploy and remove from Kiev everything that could motivate the arrival of Russian missiles! Ukraine should have removed all leadership and military installations from Kiev a long time ago and protected the energy infrastructure with much lighter AD like NASAMs or IRIS T, even Avengers and Gepard to shoot down drones! And now they didn't need this ridiculous propaganda in MSM that shot down hypersonic missiles!
And the greatest vulnerability of all Western systems to the AFU, however simple, is that it is impossible to train good operators in a year! Just as the AFU today no longer has intermediate officers to operate a major offensive, which is pure fantasy!
Highly mobile for the Patriot is 6 hours to move and another 90 minutes (in a very well trained crew) to set it back up somewhere else not including travel time. It also would be very obvious to ISR as the train of trucks moving in convoy is easily seen from the air. It is not a mobile system when compared to the S-400. It also requires 80 personnel to operate. Reloads take over an hour as well and again is highly dependent on the crew doing the work. The Patriot is overcomplicated and has a very large supply train that needs to be in place. for these reasons I believe they must be operated by NATO personnel. These were probably retired military on contract and are likely gone now. Trying to recruit more will be a real difficult task.
The other less effective systems are truly mobile and are usually truck or track mounted.
These large multiple launcher systems are tough as they use a command truck, 2 or more launchers, radar truck, generators, maintenance truck, reload cranes, supply trucks, all the tentage for the personnel to live in, mess tent, etc. Moving 80 people and equipment isn't easy and in general the Patriot batteries once set up don't move. The ones surrounding DC haven't moved in a decade. They must be shitting bricks now that it is proven ineffective against Russian (or even Houti) munitions. It isn't new, but this time it is in their face. In the Gulf War it has been shown to be zero % effective and everything else was all lies. The Saudis got hammered by the Houtis who used simple drones and not hypersonic missiles. The Patriot system is all hype.
I saw in UK Yahoo yesterday that they are claiming that not only is the system not damaged but also shot down a Russian Bomber as well proving everything is better than good. Well, hype doesn't win wars.
Putin first announced the development of hypersonics in 2004.
OK. But let's face it, the political announcement in such secret technologies means little. Just a statement for some reason that I don't see right now. Development starts much earlier! In fact, the development of new weapons in a superpower like Russia never stops. The MIG and Sukoy Bureaus, just to cite two examples, don't just focus on new technologies when they receive orders for a new plane!
The big difference between Russian weaponry and US weaponry, besides totally different military doctrines, is that in Russia it is enormously developed with public money and in the West today its mostly private companies. That they cannot wait 30 years for a new order for jets or missiles. That's why they can't quickly increase ammunition production now either. There is no infrastructure. When the defense industry in the past in the West was also public. And Moscow went through the meltdown of the 90s!
But the defense of countries is intrinsically a public activity because it stems from an obligation of the state towards the population! As long as never exceed insane investment volumes as happened in the USSR to compete with the US! On projects like Star Wars that consumed insane amounts of money on both sides! A real freak! Because the wealth of a state is never infinite. And if we spend too much on defense it will be missed in the economy and, for example, on health care!
There's only 5 major defense companies left (with a few circling around weakling General Dynamics to knock it out of 5th place) thanks to consolidation orders issued by Clinton's secretary of defense. (The remaining four, in no particular order: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing.). Then there are also companies such as BAE and Elbit that are headquartered overseas, but bought up some bargains in the US.
The R&D that small companies could accomplish way back when is now "owned" by the US FFRDCs. PhD's usually end up writing proposals, and not spending too much time inventing.
I'm no rocket scientist, but the idea that the Khinzal can release a payload that can be used for all sorts of purposes, simply wow.
But looking at it's release, it would be somewhat circular or snowflake shaped. Therefore, could logic dictate that your Anti Missile defense ignore the circular noise and concentrate on the center of that noise?
The notion that a Kinzhal can release a payload is very unclear to me.
Certainly it would be extremely challenging to release a usable object at hypersonic speeds - between plasma wall and shock waves, the object would probably be roasted.
At "cruise" speed, it is possible but the value is much less clear since the entire point of being hypersonic is to be very difficult and short time to shoot down - and it isn't clear to me that a small decoy could imitate the hypersonic profile of the Kinzhal (i.e. plasma wall and speed).
couple of points:
most "powerful" radars no matter synthetic aperture, phased array, electronically steered etc need to be line of sight and are effected by curvature of earth. patriot and other ground based radar (the very expensive one for thaad), aegis, the new lockheed big face radar etc! there are more restrictions to go into, but they are mission and geometry based. operationally fixed is a vulnerability..... likely cannot be eliminated.
then there are the advantages of initiative of the attacker over defense!! radar operations have changed very little since ww ii, it is physics anyway! initiative is on the side of blanking radar, blank the sensors and the defensive kill chain does not start..... all defenses (point, enroute, ground based midcourse, ...) are geographically constrained!
if the peoples republic of china goes after republic of china on formosa what are the first assets to be eliminated?
side thought: russia my know more about how patriot 'works' than that the usa after years of test shows at white sands!
First topic: Precisely why "AWACS" type craft are invaluable.
I won't say that I grasp ALL of the technical concepts, but this really was fascinating reading and I certainly learned quite a lot. The US/NATO have always made the mistake of underestimating their potential adversaries and their abilities. This should be an "oof" moment for the west but it probably won't be, they will remain stuck in their own self-aggrandizing feedback loop. You can't actually wish yourself into superiority in anything, especially weapons of war! The Russians will inevitably make your wonder weapons go BOOM.
Are you also a cat?
The bear hat I'm wearing in my profile pic is merely a fashion accessory ;)
Must be a housecat.
Simplicius, been lurking and reading your posts for a while now. I enjoy the factual no non-sense analysis.
Thoughts on the Kiev Mayor's video of the fragments of the alleged interception of a Kinzhal? Ukraine initially denied the interception, then claimed it was true as a US official also made the claim.
https://i.redd.it/r3autlx5k3za1.jpg
The missile component that the Kiev Mayor showed is indeed similar to a reported accident in Stavropol where a Kinzhal fell off an aircraft. However, in my opinion the two warheads, while similar, have differences in the length of the tip of the nose section as well as what I presume to be the 2 mounting locations. In the Kiev Mayor picture, the mounting area appears indented, whereas in the Stavropol warhead the mountings appear to extend outward from the warhead body.
I think it is possible that most modern/late cold war Russian/Soviet missile warheads are of a similar design (why change a warhead design that works at a given size) which explains the similarity between the "Kinzhal interception proof" and the fallen Kinzhal's warhead. I have heard that Iskander and even the older Soviet Tochka-U has a similar warhead. I cannot find any information on the internal warhead shape of various Russian missiles, but it is possible that even Kalibr cruise missiles share a similar warhead.
Ukraine has access to older soviet missile systems and warheads. I do not believe they actually shot down a Kinzhal, given what you have said in this post. I think that the shown warhead is either a Tochka-U warhead dressed up to be a "Kinzhal" (less likely given the char on the object that leads me to believe it was indeed shot down) or a shootdown of a Kalibr missile that may share a similar warhead. In the background of the video/pictures of the Kiev Mayor's debris gallery I can see what appears to me to be parts of a Tochka-U and fragments that are reminiscent of a Kalibr albeit much smaller than the actual cruise missile.
Well firstly the most important thing to understand is that the claimed Stavropol crash is claimed to be a Kinzhal only by Ukrainians. THere is zero evidence that is a Kinzhal, it has never been confirmed to be one by any authority and in fact all evidence points to it not being one. Ukrainians created the false narrative that it's a Kinzhal at the time just to try to poke Russia but there are a multitude of things that make no sense:
1. the distance from Stavropol to Ukrainian territory in Donbass is over 500km. This is beyond the Kinzhal's likely range, and there is no way that it would be fired from that far. This is not a cruise missile like Kh-101 which can be fired from near the Caspian Sea. You can go test this yourself on google maps, the crash location doesn't even reach Donetsk city or just roughly at 500km. My understanding is Kinzhals have typically been fired from airbases in the north that were on average 200km give or take from their targets.
2. The Ukro supporters themselves identify a radar seeker head on the crash site. Kinzhal has no known radar seeker and there is no literature on the planet that says so. Its guidance is typically listed as inertial navigation (INS) and midcourse update. The Iskander has never had any radar head either in fact no ballistic missile on the planet has a radar seeker. This alone nullifies that from being a Kinzhal
3. none of the parts they color code in their little pictures actually line up apart from the fins which look similar
4. They claim the main bullet-shaped piece is the "warhead". Firstly, the Iskander, whose size can be seen here: https://i.imgur.com/mZERxYW.jpg is listed as having a 500-700kg warhead, this is upwards of 1500lbs or the weight of a car basically.
Just to give a size comparison, the large Tyulpan 240mm mortar Russia uses is this big: https://i.imgur.com/oNeuZ8E.jpg
I show that as comparison cus it's roughly a similar size as the 'warhead' that Klitschko is standing next to, so is a decent comparison. The Tyulpan mortar however weighs 130kg for a standard round, or about 286lbs. Does the 'warhead' next to Klitschko look like it weighs 1200-1500lbs or 500-700kg? Not to me. It looks like it might just slightly heavier than the 240mm mortar.
And yes I used an Iskander warhead as example since I'm assuming Kinzhal's is the same, but in reality no one knows because it's classified, we can only make inferences. Similarly it's possible Kinzhal has some secret radar seeker head but as I said, there's no literature on that, the Iskander it's based on definitely has no radar seeker, nor does any ballistic missile in history.
So what is it that crashed in Stavropol? I don't really have time to do heavy research on it but I saw someone had mentioned P-800 Onyx as a possibility, and at least that fits the profile better. Not only would Onyx be fired from that range rather than Kinzhal due to its longer range, but it has those same fins that look very close, and crucially, it actually has a radar seeker head. Many K-300P Bastion systems were used to launch P800 Onyx at Ukraine in the past. Also, Onyx's warhead is a much smaller 250kg that actually would align more with that size I was referring to, more comparable to the 240mm mortar example.
http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/images/blog/2012/german-bombs.jpg
I see what you mean about the warhead size compared to a person. The Kiev Mayor is a big guy, but the warhead shown definitely fits the 250kg category better than 500kg.