The biggest news of the past few days was a revelation that Putin made to the visiting African delegation which was trying to mediate a peace talk between Russia and Ukraine, after some of them had just met Zelensky in Kiev. For the first time, Putin revealed never-before-seen secret negotiation documents which were reportedly hashed out over the Istanbul peace talks which took place in late March of 2022. Many are professing surprise that Putin tied the proposed Istanbul accords to the Kiev withdrawal, but this was in fact
I find the documents showed to the peace deal very interesting, because it shows the most important fact of war (or military conflict as a whole) - war is incredibly unprofitable and undesirable. Every artifice should be used to avoid fighting and achieve goals politically. But if you are forced into it, you should leverage every method possible to motivate and equip the fighters to win - legal, technological, and political, such as the "goodwill gesture" of multiple withdrawals to use as a political bargaining chip abroad and keep up the national will at home.
The Ukraine was committed to continued war on expectation of a distant sponsor, while Russia went on its own account. When that sponsor didn't live up to their promises, defeat was inevitable.
I see your point, but from the legal aspect, Russia could withdraw the troops from Kyiv so Ukraine won't claim it signed the peace treaty under duress and have it nullified
Withdrawing the Russian troops to the 22 Feb does not mean that LDPR goes back to Ukraine. If in the agreement they were accepted by Ukraine as independent states, Ukraine was neutral, with a limited military, then that would have solved all (including the land bridge).
The only thing unresolved would be the denazification but with a limited military, neutrality, and some time that could have been solved.
Ironically, it’s actually better for Russia that the agreement was scuttled in the long term although with a steeper road to climb.
Obviously that all assumes what I assumed in above (+acceptance of Crimea as part of Russia). Anything less would have been a loss for Russia.
Jun 19, 2023·edited Jun 19, 2023Liked by Simplicius
First comment: At the SPIEF, Putin said the economic condition in March was far from certain. There was confidence, but no assurances. IMO, the feint to Kiev forced negotiations that would've been favorable for Russia and Ukraine. But they were nixed on orders from Team Biden carried by Bojo. Why? Because Crimea has always been the Empire's goal and that still seemed feasible since the economic war had yet to really take hold in Western eyes, and that was always the major consideration. Plus, the self-induced illusion of Russia's weakness was in full control. And as we well know, Neocons don't give in easily. Russia's quick military technical operation gambit came very close to succeeding but didn't, which forced a repositioning and reappraisal.
Now that I've read the whole piece, first, the slaughter was expected and will continue. Yes, it's horrifying for me as a former soldier, but I anticipated it, so it's not altogether surprising. Second, on your translation issue, I got the right translation from the outset and have several ideas of what might come next to create several additional facts on the ground, which I'll share when I have greater time to comment. Third, there's still a channel to ford to get to the ZNPP; and as I commented before, any attempted assault will have worse results than those you chronicled in this report. Fourth, on all the military equipment movement, it's the time of year for Reserve and National Guard Summer FTXs, so some will be that sort of thing. If Biden were to try and commit US troops, IMO he'll get impeached ASAP. The only aid that makes sense is using other NATO troops to man NATO armor that's in cantonment in Europe; but without air support, that will be another futile attempt that will fail. As I commented a month ago, it's either ALL-IN or surrender as continuing piece-meal additions is "military malpractice" as Larry Johnson said.
I have comments on Russia's space program and a report on the state of the EU/EC/NATO's fate in Europe, but I'll need to add them when I have more time to write. Again, thanks for your efforts; I don't bother seeking out other perspectives because I don't need to!
I don't think it's necessary to impute duplicity in Putin's given statement of events. February and March 2022 were obviously chaotic times in the MoD; it could very well be that events and decisions had multiple vectors, and Putin is (quite naturally) remembering the ones he favoured while his memory de-emphasizes the others. If that's the case, his statements can be perfectly true while it's also true to say that a full and objective historical analysis must include other factors.
Separately, I'm utterly gobsmacked by the fact that everyone is talking about Ukrainians using new tactics like smoke. Were they not using smoke before? Did they not wonder what those bulky launchers on the sides of their tanks were for? Smoke is about as new a tactic on the battlefield as fire, and smoke to cover armoured advances about as new as armoured cavalry. Either there's more information there lost in the filter, or the AFU is staffed by the blitheringest idiots to ever blither.
Finally, about space capabilities: yes, SpaceX has hugely inflated the US payload count, but if you measure instead payload weight, the margin is much narrower, with the US neck and neck with China and Russia trailing a moderately distant third that still outstrips the rest of the world combined. Russia and China also have clear advantages in characteristic energy and manned payloads, which admittedly isn't terribly important for military applications as interplanetary probes and astronauts aren't going to feed intel to the Russian war machine. Finally, there's some disagreement in payload capability, as distinct from demonstrated historical payloads. Until SpaceX started cluttering everything up with Starlink in an attempt to turn a profit for their expanded shop, China was by far and away the heavylift tempo champion, with Russia battling for second - prospectively overtaking the role with the death of the Atlas 5 and Delta IV.
As I've noted elsewhere, Russia's really busting all bounds with launch tempo. In February and March this year they were averaging a little over a launch a week.
This war has exposed everyone's weaknesses, as wars do. We have focused a lot on how western wonder weapons are not all that, but clearly there are many deficiencies on the Russian side too. A lot of the corruption/incompetence stereotype is well earned. Not like the west is any less so, but as it stands both sides will be racing to plug their deficiencies. Russia probably faster because actual Russian boys are dying.
The British and the US are getting to play a no-cost game at the moment. The British especially. Russia needs to do something about that else I expect SAS to start operating within Russia, if not already
Thank you! This part is positive “the future is bright and the SMO has certainly served as a massive wake up call and cleansing of the Russian administrative system”. What I am really worried is what you said prior to this: “The truth is, the ZNPP may be Zelensky’s final and only card left to play once his army is destroyed to the point of combat ineffectiveness”. This possibility seems plausible, which shows how mad this war is going!
The USA can't afford to lose this fight. If it does then it's curtains for American hegemony. The neocons will arrange a false flag to bring in NATO.
It doesn't matter that it's a reckless and ill conceived plan that is bound to fail, the neocons aren't constrained by reality. I'm calling it the Nuland Surprise in honor of vile neocon Victoria Nuland.
I suspect the waffling on the ISR question is because Russia is getting massive help from China on this front. Putin may not be up to speed on how much of the work is being done by Russia and how much by China, doesn't want to put China on the spot or make Russia look weak (which he ended up doing anyway, but oh well). Either way, it certainly looks like Russia has improved a lot in ISR over the past half a year or so and I doubt that's a problem they could fix themselves quickly and easily.
Jun 19, 2023·edited Jun 19, 2023Liked by Simplicius
>Ukrainians are sabotaging their own vehicles and refusing to advance
I lived through mortar and RPG strikes on a defensive position and that was one of the scariest times of my life. I'd rather be actively engaged in a dozen firefights before I ever again live through helplessly waiting for a mortar shell to kill me.
I couldn't even imagine *advancing* into actual 152mm artillery fire and facing it in the open. Not just dinky little cold war RPGs and 60mm mortars from hardened fighting positions.
I find the documents showed to the peace deal very interesting, because it shows the most important fact of war (or military conflict as a whole) - war is incredibly unprofitable and undesirable. Every artifice should be used to avoid fighting and achieve goals politically. But if you are forced into it, you should leverage every method possible to motivate and equip the fighters to win - legal, technological, and political, such as the "goodwill gesture" of multiple withdrawals to use as a political bargaining chip abroad and keep up the national will at home.
The Ukraine was committed to continued war on expectation of a distant sponsor, while Russia went on its own account. When that sponsor didn't live up to their promises, defeat was inevitable.
I see your point, but from the legal aspect, Russia could withdraw the troops from Kyiv so Ukraine won't claim it signed the peace treaty under duress and have it nullified
Give War a Chance - “Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad”
Enlightened militarism in new “Liberal" Imperial Europe:
telegenic female leaders such as the Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin,
German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock,
and Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas
want you to give war a chance.
https://i0.wp.com/russiatruth.co/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Fuayfo1WIAcexDi.png?w=640&ssl=1
Withdrawing the Russian troops to the 22 Feb does not mean that LDPR goes back to Ukraine. If in the agreement they were accepted by Ukraine as independent states, Ukraine was neutral, with a limited military, then that would have solved all (including the land bridge).
The only thing unresolved would be the denazification but with a limited military, neutrality, and some time that could have been solved.
Ironically, it’s actually better for Russia that the agreement was scuttled in the long term although with a steeper road to climb.
Obviously that all assumes what I assumed in above (+acceptance of Crimea as part of Russia). Anything less would have been a loss for Russia.
Could it be Putin was intentionally playing down Russia's space based capabilities to mislead DC/NATO? I have no idea, just a thought.
First comment: At the SPIEF, Putin said the economic condition in March was far from certain. There was confidence, but no assurances. IMO, the feint to Kiev forced negotiations that would've been favorable for Russia and Ukraine. But they were nixed on orders from Team Biden carried by Bojo. Why? Because Crimea has always been the Empire's goal and that still seemed feasible since the economic war had yet to really take hold in Western eyes, and that was always the major consideration. Plus, the self-induced illusion of Russia's weakness was in full control. And as we well know, Neocons don't give in easily. Russia's quick military technical operation gambit came very close to succeeding but didn't, which forced a repositioning and reappraisal.
Now that I've read the whole piece, first, the slaughter was expected and will continue. Yes, it's horrifying for me as a former soldier, but I anticipated it, so it's not altogether surprising. Second, on your translation issue, I got the right translation from the outset and have several ideas of what might come next to create several additional facts on the ground, which I'll share when I have greater time to comment. Third, there's still a channel to ford to get to the ZNPP; and as I commented before, any attempted assault will have worse results than those you chronicled in this report. Fourth, on all the military equipment movement, it's the time of year for Reserve and National Guard Summer FTXs, so some will be that sort of thing. If Biden were to try and commit US troops, IMO he'll get impeached ASAP. The only aid that makes sense is using other NATO troops to man NATO armor that's in cantonment in Europe; but without air support, that will be another futile attempt that will fail. As I commented a month ago, it's either ALL-IN or surrender as continuing piece-meal additions is "military malpractice" as Larry Johnson said.
I have comments on Russia's space program and a report on the state of the EU/EC/NATO's fate in Europe, but I'll need to add them when I have more time to write. Again, thanks for your efforts; I don't bother seeking out other perspectives because I don't need to!
I don't think it's necessary to impute duplicity in Putin's given statement of events. February and March 2022 were obviously chaotic times in the MoD; it could very well be that events and decisions had multiple vectors, and Putin is (quite naturally) remembering the ones he favoured while his memory de-emphasizes the others. If that's the case, his statements can be perfectly true while it's also true to say that a full and objective historical analysis must include other factors.
Separately, I'm utterly gobsmacked by the fact that everyone is talking about Ukrainians using new tactics like smoke. Were they not using smoke before? Did they not wonder what those bulky launchers on the sides of their tanks were for? Smoke is about as new a tactic on the battlefield as fire, and smoke to cover armoured advances about as new as armoured cavalry. Either there's more information there lost in the filter, or the AFU is staffed by the blitheringest idiots to ever blither.
Finally, about space capabilities: yes, SpaceX has hugely inflated the US payload count, but if you measure instead payload weight, the margin is much narrower, with the US neck and neck with China and Russia trailing a moderately distant third that still outstrips the rest of the world combined. Russia and China also have clear advantages in characteristic energy and manned payloads, which admittedly isn't terribly important for military applications as interplanetary probes and astronauts aren't going to feed intel to the Russian war machine. Finally, there's some disagreement in payload capability, as distinct from demonstrated historical payloads. Until SpaceX started cluttering everything up with Starlink in an attempt to turn a profit for their expanded shop, China was by far and away the heavylift tempo champion, with Russia battling for second - prospectively overtaking the role with the death of the Atlas 5 and Delta IV.
As I've noted elsewhere, Russia's really busting all bounds with launch tempo. In February and March this year they were averaging a little over a launch a week.
This war has exposed everyone's weaknesses, as wars do. We have focused a lot on how western wonder weapons are not all that, but clearly there are many deficiencies on the Russian side too. A lot of the corruption/incompetence stereotype is well earned. Not like the west is any less so, but as it stands both sides will be racing to plug their deficiencies. Russia probably faster because actual Russian boys are dying.
The British and the US are getting to play a no-cost game at the moment. The British especially. Russia needs to do something about that else I expect SAS to start operating within Russia, if not already
Definitely been hearing more jet activity here in New England...
Thank you! This part is positive “the future is bright and the SMO has certainly served as a massive wake up call and cleansing of the Russian administrative system”. What I am really worried is what you said prior to this: “The truth is, the ZNPP may be Zelensky’s final and only card left to play once his army is destroyed to the point of combat ineffectiveness”. This possibility seems plausible, which shows how mad this war is going!
great reporting and coverage as always simplicius.. thank you..
The USA can't afford to lose this fight. If it does then it's curtains for American hegemony. The neocons will arrange a false flag to bring in NATO.
It doesn't matter that it's a reckless and ill conceived plan that is bound to fail, the neocons aren't constrained by reality. I'm calling it the Nuland Surprise in honor of vile neocon Victoria Nuland.
👍🇨🇦
I suspect the waffling on the ISR question is because Russia is getting massive help from China on this front. Putin may not be up to speed on how much of the work is being done by Russia and how much by China, doesn't want to put China on the spot or make Russia look weak (which he ended up doing anyway, but oh well). Either way, it certainly looks like Russia has improved a lot in ISR over the past half a year or so and I doubt that's a problem they could fix themselves quickly and easily.
>Ukrainians are sabotaging their own vehicles and refusing to advance
I lived through mortar and RPG strikes on a defensive position and that was one of the scariest times of my life. I'd rather be actively engaged in a dozen firefights before I ever again live through helplessly waiting for a mortar shell to kill me.
I couldn't even imagine *advancing* into actual 152mm artillery fire and facing it in the open. Not just dinky little cold war RPGs and 60mm mortars from hardened fighting positions.