As could be expected, immediately upon receipt of “authorization” from Biden, Ukraine reportedly launched an ATACMS strike on the Russian 67th GRAU depot in Bryansk region.
Writing for Ria Novosti on 18 November, Irina Alksnis weighed in on the option Kiev now has, what with ATACMS missile strikes into pre-2014 Russia.
“Russia is winning – on the battlefield, in economic terms, and geopolitically. At the same time, the space for maneuver in the West is narrowly limited, regardless of which strategy it chooses for further actions - the continuation of the conflict or exit from it. The possibilities for warfare in the current format are almost exhausted, moreover. Given Moscow’s military successes, the furtherance of the conflict will be a meaningless waste of increasingly scarce resources.”
So Alksnis’s estimation is a commonsensical one we’ve heard largely from alt-media sources who are indeed free to reckon w/ the incontrovertible fact that Ukraine, led by OTAN, has lost the war—a view Western-captured media are not at liberty to explore.
Alksnis does see a hubristic arrogance in Joe’s drive to escalate while walking out the door: “The West’s plan has one vulnerability: they believe that Putin is unlikely to start WW3 because of such a *small thing* as the long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.” The gamble, in other words, is that the West can roll whatever dice it wishes but that Russia will drag its feet & ultimately do nothing in response. The West has always behaved w/ the churlish assumption that Putin *has* no red lines.
Alksnis interrogates this: “Is the West the only one ready to start WW3 if Russia, in response to the arrival of ATACMS, hits a NATO military object, like an American radar detection and guidance aircraft over the Black Sea? It is a *small thing* too.” It is immaterial if Alksnis speaks to a strong sentiment within Russia, but the change in U.S. doctrine about missile strikes in Bryansk or Belgorod or Rostov-on-Don presents enough of an opening for Russia to respond robustly & proportionately if it chooses.
Well the West is still on board, as far as it can persuade itself that it is
The West has been a lot of talk, and very little action, there's perhaps now even less action, but still a lot of talk
There are a lot neo cons in EU willing to take over -the Kiel group
Listen to the Estonians, a mouth piece for the Brits, a mouth piece in turn for the Ynaks
''Some analysts believe any European effort to shore up Ukraine could be organised by a coalition of the willing, starting with Poland and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a defence group that includes the Nordic and Baltic states and the Netherlands. These countries, who are meeting in Tallinn next month, are Ukraine’s staunchest supporters and account for two-thirds of European bilateral military aid to Kyiv.
It would be essential for France and Germany also to come on board, Tsahkna said. Germany is Ukraine’s second-largest donor of military aid after the US.
Britain had the “opportunity and all the responsibility to take the leadership” of Europe’s efforts to bolster Ukraine’s security, while Poland was also playing a very active part in the discussions, he added. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last week said he would engage in talks with the US, Nato and European allies on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security.
Tsahkna said he did not believe Trump would abandon Nato because it was not in America’s political or economic interests to leave Europe at the mercy of an imperialist Russia. But the Europeans would have to show they were willing to invest more in their own defence.
Estonia spends the equivalent of 3.4 per cent of its GDP on defence and wants Nato to agree a minimum spending level of 2.5 per cent, up from 2 per cent, at the alliance’s summit in The Hague in June next year.
Europe lacked weapons stockpiles and needed to do more to expand defence industrial capacity, the minister said.
“But what we do have is money. We have lots of money. I do not believe those governments who say they cannot ask for more from their people because we have done in Estonia,” Tsahkna said, referring to taxes rises enacted by Tallinn specifically to fund higher defence spending.
With Ukraine now seen as Nato’s first line of defence, it was Europe’s security architecture that could be reshaped in the coming months and not just Ukraine’s fate, he said.
Let's quit serious talk of warmongering non-entities. The 'coalition of the willing' going it on their own outside the NATO ie US umbrella was run several times over the last year or so, and got the finger and a lot of mouth foaming fury from the warhead nutters. Noise is what the EU is good at. It is all it has left now.
Coup Alert! TREASON! Democrat Deep State Planning to Install Harris in Presidency Before Trump’s Inauguration,
Then Trump Will Be Conveniently Assassinated, Next, WW3 with Russia, False Flag Terror Attacks Will Provide Cover For Martial Law to Be Declared the Satanic deep state is publicly plotting a coup attempt on the incoming Trump administration.
We are not heading to WW3 simply because none of the big boys want it. This is just a last hoo ha to get Russia to do a deal, and to keep Ukraine fighting for the meantime just so that the forthcoming collapse does not happen on Biden's watch. That is all. Anything other than putting in troops en masse, EXCEPT going nuclear.
The problem is that this VASTLY increases the risks of a terrible accident. Imagine Z manages to hit a nuclear power plant or nuclear weapons silo with those missiles. And who is in charge in the US? Things could get out of control quick.
The missiles are controlled by NATO staff every step the way. Ukranians may pull the trigger and stand by the launchers, getting blown up, but they don't control the targeting. AFAIK.
Sweet, early publish time. I'll read some before bed and some with coffee. Always appreciate your work good sir. Thanks as always. The best money I spend is your subscription.
I stand corrected: your subscription is the best money I spend. I am happy to be of service and I hope you are enjoying all of Mr. S' excellent articles. Take care.
To prove the Germans are really out of money and out of war plans
The Lithuania German Brigade looks less and less likely
Previous recent reports gave doubt as to the extent of the Lithuania determination and budget to build the necessary $1B++ infastructure to hous the now mythical German Brigade
Despite the small size and extent of the committment, 5,000 men, Germany has taken already so far 3 years to get to the stage of wondering if the Lithuanian government can build the infrastructure neccessary for deploymnet planned for 2027 (end of)
To say nothing of the uncertain formation of the Brigade in Germany, so far no troops signed up, apart from te 20 soldiers sent already, so far no arms uniforms nor socks have been located
Now another Lithuania report that German political chaos has stalled necessary legislation
It looks like both sides are wriggling out of the unique expression of German military build up so far observed, apart from the planning to re inforce some roads better to take tanks
This may be an expression of clear thinking by the Lithuania Government Class – why go out of our way to provoke our very large well armed neighbour with an attempt at an expensive pinprick – just as they have decided the Taiwan pinprick has brought much more grief , moss of money, loss of trade, loss of political stature, than anything else
As has the Lithuania President made friendly speeches directed to normalising relations with China
But- simultaneously – the opposition party wishes to increase Defence Spending to 3.5%
While- simultaneously- the President is reported to wish to avoid the committment to raising a division by 2030, wishes to push out to 2036 :2040
By then they’ll have to be demonising VVP’s grandchildren, but….
"Relations between China and Lithuania should be based on the principle of mutual trust and international commitments. The president supports the strive to normalise diplomatic relations between Lithuania and China, but the interest must be mutual. The president hopes that China will change its decision to downgrade the level of diplomatic representation and that ambassadors will return to work in both countries," the Communications Group of the Office of the President stated in a written comment sent to ELTA on Tuesday. However, the presidency notes that maintaining diplomatic ties with China does not mean that Lithuania should reject trade and economic relations with Taiwan «
‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’
« According to diplomats, drone production is a joint project between Russia, China and Iran. Baerbock said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine was also an attack on freedom in Europe and affected the core interests of all European states.Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis demanded that the EU react "decisively". It must not show weakness because it fears the Chinese reaction, said Landsbergis, referring to Europe's dependence on raw materials from the People's Republic »
Berlin's plans to deploy a combat brigade to Lithuania in 2026 [sic] remain unaffected Conservatives insist. However, the necessary legislation for the brigade has stalled in the political chaos.
One of the two crucial bills is still on its way to the German parliament, the other is already in the Bundestag.
The parliament has not yet ratified the treaty signed between Vilnius and Berlin in September, which defines the rights of German soldiers, civilians and their families who will be stationed in the Baltic country.
Lithuania’s Seimas ratified the treaty in October, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius promising to follow suit in early 2025. However, his ministry is now unable to give a clear timeline.
In a written reply to LRT.lt, the German Defence Ministry said the legislation was submitted to the Cabinet on November 6 and will then go to the Bundesrat, the federal council, being passed on to the Bundestag, the parliament.
“The possible dissolution of the Bundestag has no impact on its ability to carry out its parliamentary mandate. The Bundesrat and the Bundestag will decide on the dates of the hearings independently. It is therefore not possible to predict specific dates,” the ministry said.
The second law is the so-called “add-ons package”, which creates financial incentives for soldiers who decide to serve in Lithuania.
This is expected to attract the almost 5,000 soldiers needed to join the brigade.
According to the Defence Ministry, a draft law has already been submitted to the German Bundestag, but the timeline is unpredictable.
On November 6, the ruling coalition collapsed when the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked the Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner. With the loss of the third member (FDP), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens (Die Grüne) no longer have a sufficient majority in the Bundestag.
Scholz said he hoped that key laws, including those that attract a broad consensus, would be supported by the opposition conservative (CDU/CSU) group.
However, the Conservatives which are leading the polls pressured Scholz by not promising to support legislation until the Chancellor holds a vote of no confidence.
Scholz then reached a compromise to hold a vote of confidence on December 16, which could pave the way for early elections on February 23 next year.
Scholz gave a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday, defending the government’s decisions and appealing to the opposition for support.
However, the leader of the parliamentary opposition and CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said Scholz “cannot impose any conditions”.
The Conservatives did pledge support for some laws, such as the amendments to the Federal Constitutional Court Act, but demanded that all other issues be negotiated in each Bundestag plenary session.
LRT.lt contacted the Bundestag political groups for information regarding the laws important for the brigade’s deployment.
Speaking off the record, politicians said that there was talk of clear timelines in the current chaos, as the agenda can change any day.
Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU group has signalled its support for the brigade’s deployment, but has not promised to back Scholz blindly.
In his reply to LRT.lt, CDU/CSU MEP Florian Hahn, responsible for security policy issues, criticised the slow pace of the brigade’s deployment.
“A year has passed and the German government has not submitted any draft legislation on the Lithuanian brigade for approval. As soon as the draft law is submitted to the Bundestag, we will assess it responsibly and, if necessary, submit amendments,” he said.
“German-Lithuanian cooperation is of particular importance to the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag and we will not jeopardise it in any way,” he added.
Polls show some 33 percent of the electorate backing CDU/CSU if the elections were held next Sunday. However, this also means that they would not achieve a majority and would have to look for coalition partners.
The Social Democrats, which are polling third with 15 percent or the Greens (fourth with 12 percent), could help form a ruling coalition.
The Liberal FDP, the traditional partners of the Conservatives, are unlikely to reach the 5-percent barrier. In contrast, the populist alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht are expected to get 6 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also has a good chance of gaining ground – they are projected to come second with 17 percent. However, the traditional parties said they would not cooperate with AfD. » »
‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’
« « Lithuania’s 2025 draft state budget will be revised to increase defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, Gintautas Paluckas, the Social Democratic candidate for prime minister, said on Monday.
He noted that the country would need to borrow additional funds to meet its defence commitments.
“The current draft budget for next year will be revised, aiming to increase the defence allocation to 3.5 percent of GDP,” Paluckas said during a discussion on TV3.
“In the short term, the need for defence funding will have to be met by increasing public debt. Tax changes will have an effect; they will gradually fill up the defence fund, year by year. However, the need [for national defence] is obviously greater as the timeframe shortens,” he said.
Currently, Lithuania allocates around 2.5 billion euros, or about 3.2 percent of GDP, to defence.
Next year’s draft budget earmarks a similar amount for national defence, but with projected economic growth, this will represent just over 3 percent of GDP.
Public debt is projected at 43.2 percent of GDP.
Paluckas also emphasised the need for a detailed defence financing plan, particularly to accelerate the establishment of the planned military division.
“Taking defence seriously, we’ll have to draw up a full financing plan to see in which year the funds are needed,” he said.
President Gitanas Nausėda said last week that Lithuania could consider sidestepping European fiscal rules to develop a full military division by 2030.
Defence officials said after a meeting of the president-chaired State Defence Council a few weeks ago that, with the current defence funding, Lithuania’s military division could achieve full operational capability in 2036–2040, instead of 2030 as previously planned.
Nausėda also said that advancing the division’s establishment to 2030 would require an additional 10 billion to 14 billion euros in defence funding over this period.
He said that spreading this financial requirement over six years would mean allocating 5 to 5.5 percent of GDP to defence.
The so-called EU Maastricht criteria require that the public finance deficit should not exceed 3 percent of GDP in a given year and that public debt remains below 60 percent of GDP. » »
Germany, decades out of practice, can't quite get the hang of how to build a proper military. Maybe their slow-footing this belies an insidious fear: once they start, they cannot stop.
You may be right.....but it does seem strange that the one thing they promised to do they find it, for bureaucratic and political reasons, impossible to do
Despite the neos at the Kiel Institute
Despite the Lits or Lats or Esties
More on them later, but all these seem to be having second thoughts, sort of
The Esties have come up with a plan so outrageous that it's exactly out of Zelensky's book, in which the more extravagantly useless the idea is the easier it is to sell to those who have nothing to lose - as per the Germans perhaps, certainly to the Brit
>>even if Ukraine did score a hit, it was once again nothing more than a ‘low hanging fruit’
Did the HIMARS only destroy "low handing fruit" that had "no effect on the war" in the summer of 2022? Please...
They are going for a repeat of the same thing, but on a much large scale.
>>Think about it this way, according to Zelensky and official Ukrainian government statistics, Russia has launched over 6000-7000 total missiles at Ukraine during the war thus far, and one can see Ukraine is still kicking.
Ukraine is still kicking for two reasons:
1) It has a currently still untouchable rear. Had Putin had the testicular fortitude to isolate Ukraine from NATO with the surgical application of the appropriate tools, the war would have been over a long time ago. Now Russia no longer has an untouchable rear, so it is about to become an even more uneven playing field stacked against Russia.
2) There were and still are baffling restriction on targeting inside Ukraine too, that are completely sabotaging the war effort.
Putin could have fully disabled AFU logistics and decapitated Ukraine within 24 hours of deciding to do so. But he has not done it, because reasons.
This is why those 6000-7000 missiles have had so little effect.
But NATO is not going to impose such self-defeating restrictions on itself. So their strikes will have much more of an effect.
>>Well, the IMF has just done their latest report and has officially concluded that Russia has blown past both Germany and Japan as of 2024
Nobody cares -- missiles are not flying into Germany and Japan and they are not going to have their industrial base gradually destroyed by missile and drones strikes. Russia is.
Yes, the HIMARS didn't do much in summer of 2022 contrary to the popular propaganda narrative. I've written about it before (which you can find in past article) that Ukrainian officials at one point admitted that HIMARS had no real effect during the Kherson offensive, and this was merely an information package. All the stuff about blowing up depots and hitting a few train stations was just noise to make it seem like Russia's withdrawal from Kherson was due to Ukraine's offensive power, when in reality Ukraine was being beaten badly and Russia only withdrew due to general need to consolidate lines (due to low manpower at time) plus the threat of Kakhovka dam cutting off Kherson contingent.
I'm well aware of all the small cherry picked Russian tales about it from the same 2 or 3 doomer accounts like Murz and co. You on the other hand would do well to read outside of your echochamber what other more impartial experts wrote about those strikes. They were no where near as consequential as you think.
And you would be better off not making "estimations" on GDP since you are an illiterate person who finds it difficult to read the restaurant bill. And may be you could read the official document of the Russian Central Bank with their estimates for 2025.
The day after Joe okayed missile strikes into Russia, a country which is a nuclear superpower second to none, a nytimes op-edder stated earnestly that “Donald Trump’s re-election to the American presidency is a threat to global peace and security.”
Irony much—?!!?
Now they, the DJT team, “have the power to execute all of their depravity on Day One w/ the full backing of American governmental power virtually unchecked.”
What planet, what world—?!!?
With permission to strike into Russia, especially to target DPRK troops wherever they may surge, the cunning & crafty Ukrainians might go on a drunken spree and crazily rent a fishing sloop in Hokkaido, strap a multi-launch system to it and then churn across the Sea of Japan in order to fire ATACMS on DPRK troops in Vladivostok.
There are no DPRK troops stationed in Vladivostok, ready to fight the Ukrainians, but the West, in that Saddam-Hussein-has-weapons-of-mass-destruction mind-set insists that there are. Reality cannot obstruct the West’s aims, which are to take pot-shots @ Russia before Daddy comes home and hammers out an eventual peace plan.
The UK’s political situation is extremely dire unfortunately. In the last election, we had a choice between Sunak and Starmer. In the next election, it will be between Starmer and Badenoch. We are just doomed basically. I don’t see things improving in the UK until it breaks free of the globalist neo con chokehold.
The economic woes suffered by the UK currently is directly related to its policies against Russia. The sky high energy prices, which, at one point was more than the mortgage payment is ruining lives and the economy. Imagine, for a second, if we were ‘allowed’ to have a gas pipeline and a good relationship with Russia. The UK economy can flourish again. For example, Russia has excellent medical professionals in abundance, which can help resolve the NHS crisis, where you can potentially wait for months for an X-Ray.
The people who control Starmer, Badenoch, Sunak, Johnson et al. are the real enemies of the British people. Not Russia.
Hi @HT, there is more of a choice than the two you have mentioned, which is the biggest problem here in the UK. A lot of people, and I mean a lot, only consider the two main parties, all others are discounted.
Whilst people have this myopic view, nothing will change since they will flip flop between them, and as stated in many a media source, but not main stream media I hasten to add, they are two cheeks of the same arse.
Well I voted reform, which is a little different. But Nigel is a big Atlanticist too, albeit of the Trump brand. The change needs to come from the US, but that's a long shot.
I think there might be something psychologically / neurologically wrong with Starmer - he admitted in an interview that he never dreams at night, has no favourite books and never had a phobia, even as a child. That isn't normal.
"He makes it clearer than ever to see just how captured these inhuman globalist puppets are—they have no sovereignty nor soul, just dead husks of skin masquerading in a bad Kabuki, monotoning the same bad stump speeches and rehearsed scripts for their masters."
Mark Rutte, Romania, and the NATO extortion campaign
Another one for the Mark Rutte Collection Fund : As recorded in links below
The NATO extortions continue as if nothing will ever change
Romania leaderships talks up the Russian scare, asks NATO for more protection
In return Romania signs the letter of intent to buy 32 F-35s
These planes here called ‘state of the art’ : but this is only true in the cruel sense – as readers here know the F-35 is barely capable of flight, is the ‘NATO Hangar Queen’
But has value as ransom
$7.2Billion for 32 planes or $225M per plane : Compare costs, below, with other EU countries
Part of prolific recent Romnain gvmt program of military spending total of $14B
This is how the US entraps small countries into a death spiral
« The deal struck for the last contract—for lots 15 through 17—had put the average flyaway cost of the Air Force’s F-35A variant at $82.5 million. The F-35B vertical take-off and landing variant came in at $109 million, and the carrier-based F-35C at $102.1 million. These numbers were slightly higher than in the preceding lots, but still lower in real terms »
Unit Cost price, with spare parts, ground support etc-- to EU gvmts $120 Million ++ $197M for Norway, $147M for Finland, 144M for Poland, $164M for Switzerland, $122M For Mark Rutte with special discount, $192M for Belgium, $311M for Germany, between $100M and 120m for the UK, Italy $312M, Spain $225M, Greece $ 175M, Turkey ……
« Rutte-Ciolacu meeting in Brussels. Romanian PM Urges NATO to Boost Eastern Flank and Black Sea Presence »
« « On Monday 18 November 2024, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu at NATO Headquarters to discuss security in the Black Sea region, but also strengthening the Eastern Flank at the Black Sea and strengthening the alliance’s presence in Romania.
NATO chief Mark Rutte thanked Prime Minister Ciolacu for Romania’s numerous contributions to the Alliance. Romania invests more than 2% of its GDP on defence, hosts a NATO multinational battlegroup, and contributes troops to NATO missions in Kosovo and Iraq.
At the end of the meeting, in his turn, PM Ciolacu said that “Romanians are safe”.
The Prime Minister announced that he shares NATO Secretary General’s vision that no country can tackle security threats alone. “The fact that we are stronger together is a reality, not just a slogan. That is why I expressed Romania’s gratitude to the Secretary General, both to our Allies who provide concrete support and to NATO for adopting measures specifically dedicated to Romania in land and air defense. We have a significant Allied military presence in Romania, but I asked the Secretary General to support the enhancement and strengthening of this presence, as well as the consolidation of NATO’s posture on the Eastern Flank and in the Black Sea. Such steps are indispensable for credible deterrence against Russian threats,” the Romanian PM stated.
Ciolacu also noted that he had felt the NATO Secretary General’s solidarity from the beginning of his mandate, particularly during the firm declaration of support for Romania following the Russian drone incident in October. “We are ready to contribute to strengthening the Alliance and maintaining a strong transatlantic relationship. This is especially crucial given the extremely complex security context we face. The Russian Federation has chosen to become NATO’s greatest threat. Russia has brought war back to Europe, right to Romania’s borders, heightening our citizens’ concerns. That’s why we are here, at NATO headquarters, standing shoulder to shoulder, to send a strong message that Romanians are safe and stable. Romania is part of NATO; the Alliance has a substantial presence in our country, which guarantees that every inch of our territory is fully protected,” said Ciolacu after his meeting with Mark Rutte.
He added that the violations of Allied airspace and Russia’s aggressive posture in the Black Sea underline the importance of increasing troop numbers in the region and delivering a united and solid response from the Alliance.
Ciolacu also informed the Secretary General that this week Romania will sign a letter of acceptance with the U.S. for the acquisition of 32 state-of-the-art F-35 aircraft. Additionally, he reiterated Romania’s consistent support for Ukraine and Moldova. “We recently witnessed attempts to derail Moldova’s European path. We have a duty to support Chișinău, and we wish to contribute together to this effort,” the Romanian Prime Minister added during his visit to Brussels, leading a government delegation that included Foreign Affairs Minister Luminița Odobescu and Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr.
Like polling accuracy just before the U.S. presidential election, the IMF data was malleable enough to *show* that Germany & Japan were still outpacing Russia economically.
When the math is this fungible, the West will cling to it
All such data is dependent on local country stats, even tho( the IMF and World Bank do do checks, these can not be comprehensive
Other indications like electricity usage are useful
China, being good capitalists, do not consider services are part of the economy in the sense they provide stats angled towards material production, and ignore such parasitic developements as much as they can
They think Russian causalities are well over 500,000 and that Russia's economy is in ruins. These people are going to be so surprised when Ukraine sues for peace. Make sure you read the comments.
My concern is if the Neocons authorized and initiated this, what’s to stop them from lobbing those ATACMS at NPP’s? And if they do what the fuck does Russia do then? This is an unthinkable escalation scenario which borderlines on treason with Trump and the Gang coming into power in 2 months. It’s ballsy than anything I have ever seen perhaps. It seems to me they are prepared to do for broke.
Here is Judge Nap and Doctorow. I cannot recommend it enough you FF to the 8min mark and listen to the most important speech Trump has ever given IMHO. It is extremely powerful and cuts right to the bone. He calls out all the right people. Ritter was on with the Judge yesterday and does an excellent job explaining Trump’s cabinet. It’s as I have suspected Trump is ready to finish the game.
To be fair it wasn’t all that long ago that I had lost confidence in Trump. I accused him of actually being the Deep States man this time around to help recruit for “their” wars. That Time has Passed. Here’s the Judge and DT is bit after 8min. It’s a must listen for those who haven’t heard it.
PS And Simp I don’t think it’s fair we equate the Deagle report to Nuclear Armageddon. The Deagle report is for pussy shit like pandemics and famines. I’m of the mindset that if one nuke goes off they all go. Annie Jacobsen and Scott Ritter seem to agree. So if that happens Deagle will be completely incorrect. There will soon be no one alive in any nation. Ok a few stragglers here and there but you get the drift. 😉
Agreed, anyone who does has no understanding of violence. I used to get into a lot of fights. I am very lucky to have survived some of them. But I learned pretty damn quick; if you know it’s coming to blows then by God don’t wait to get hit. Hit first and hit hard! I don’t see nuclear war being any different.
Nuclear weapons are about deterrence. If they are used, everyone fears losing their arsenal to an enemy strike, so you have a lot of incentive to use them before you lose them. SLBM forces - subs - are the exception to this.
Then, you have to consider the vendetta-style nature of the counterstrike. Let's say someone was foolish enough to use a single warhead. This will cause casualties and you'll have people screaming for blood. You would expect reprisal. The reprisal will cause sufficient casualties to compel a counter-reprisal, and so it goes.
I don't have enough faith in humanity to see them stopping before full release.
Can you imagine the tension in the world should one be used. It would be hell. As the late great Tom Petty sang “The waiting is the hardest part.” What a complete nightmare. And that’s the problem it becomes as you said “use them before you lose them.”
The 2 atom bombs that *were* dropped swept their target cities clean of anything taller than a human being; with current ones having several times the yield, what you won't see are artistically disfigured ruins as in Fallout 3 and later. Those games make Boston and DC look like they would in the aftermath of a regular WW2 bombing, not 2 centuries after multiple multi-megaton strikes as in the game lore.
Writing for Ria Novosti on 18 November, Irina Alksnis weighed in on the option Kiev now has, what with ATACMS missile strikes into pre-2014 Russia.
“Russia is winning – on the battlefield, in economic terms, and geopolitically. At the same time, the space for maneuver in the West is narrowly limited, regardless of which strategy it chooses for further actions - the continuation of the conflict or exit from it. The possibilities for warfare in the current format are almost exhausted, moreover. Given Moscow’s military successes, the furtherance of the conflict will be a meaningless waste of increasingly scarce resources.”
So Alksnis’s estimation is a commonsensical one we’ve heard largely from alt-media sources who are indeed free to reckon w/ the incontrovertible fact that Ukraine, led by OTAN, has lost the war—a view Western-captured media are not at liberty to explore.
Alksnis does see a hubristic arrogance in Joe’s drive to escalate while walking out the door: “The West’s plan has one vulnerability: they believe that Putin is unlikely to start WW3 because of such a *small thing* as the long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.” The gamble, in other words, is that the West can roll whatever dice it wishes but that Russia will drag its feet & ultimately do nothing in response. The West has always behaved w/ the churlish assumption that Putin *has* no red lines.
Alksnis interrogates this: “Is the West the only one ready to start WW3 if Russia, in response to the arrival of ATACMS, hits a NATO military object, like an American radar detection and guidance aircraft over the Black Sea? It is a *small thing* too.” It is immaterial if Alksnis speaks to a strong sentiment within Russia, but the change in U.S. doctrine about missile strikes in Bryansk or Belgorod or Rostov-on-Don presents enough of an opening for Russia to respond robustly & proportionately if it chooses.
Hinge-point.
But has anything changed re US missile policy? As S reports most of this so called change does not appear to be 'official'
Boosting a drone over the Black sorry Red Sea is going to provoke WW3?
The Ansar Allah do this on a daily almost basis
I agree, Gerrard. Ukraine has to believe the west is still on board. The rest of us, don't though.
Well the West is still on board, as far as it can persuade itself that it is
The West has been a lot of talk, and very little action, there's perhaps now even less action, but still a lot of talk
There are a lot neo cons in EU willing to take over -the Kiel group
Listen to the Estonians, a mouth piece for the Brits, a mouth piece in turn for the Ynaks
''Some analysts believe any European effort to shore up Ukraine could be organised by a coalition of the willing, starting with Poland and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a defence group that includes the Nordic and Baltic states and the Netherlands. These countries, who are meeting in Tallinn next month, are Ukraine’s staunchest supporters and account for two-thirds of European bilateral military aid to Kyiv.
It would be essential for France and Germany also to come on board, Tsahkna said. Germany is Ukraine’s second-largest donor of military aid after the US.
Britain had the “opportunity and all the responsibility to take the leadership” of Europe’s efforts to bolster Ukraine’s security, while Poland was also playing a very active part in the discussions, he added. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last week said he would engage in talks with the US, Nato and European allies on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security.
Tsahkna said he did not believe Trump would abandon Nato because it was not in America’s political or economic interests to leave Europe at the mercy of an imperialist Russia. But the Europeans would have to show they were willing to invest more in their own defence.
Estonia spends the equivalent of 3.4 per cent of its GDP on defence and wants Nato to agree a minimum spending level of 2.5 per cent, up from 2 per cent, at the alliance’s summit in The Hague in June next year.
Europe lacked weapons stockpiles and needed to do more to expand defence industrial capacity, the minister said.
“But what we do have is money. We have lots of money. I do not believe those governments who say they cannot ask for more from their people because we have done in Estonia,” Tsahkna said, referring to taxes rises enacted by Tallinn specifically to fund higher defence spending.
With Ukraine now seen as Nato’s first line of defence, it was Europe’s security architecture that could be reshaped in the coming months and not just Ukraine’s fate, he said.
“We just cannot wait on whatever the US decides.”
Let's quit serious talk of warmongering non-entities. The 'coalition of the willing' going it on their own outside the NATO ie US umbrella was run several times over the last year or so, and got the finger and a lot of mouth foaming fury from the warhead nutters. Noise is what the EU is good at. It is all it has left now.
Noise is what the EU is all about
But this Estonia quote is not EU, it is JEF, the Brits, and is a direct line from UK to the US
The US likes to fight wars by proxy
It is still just noise.
They're all hat and no cattle.
If you are describing 'they' as the US, and you ought to be
Since when did that stop them from making chaos in Afghan Ukraine and Gaza?
Using the language such as '....to shore up Ukraine...' is criminally remiss.
What's meant is shore up Kiev Ukraine, the regime.
Using that language actually maintains the US lying narrative.
Anyone using it is wittingly or unwittingly a stooge for the lying murderers of Washington.
No they do not mean what you claim - they think they say they support no régime they support a sparkling shining democratic citizen nation
Of course the Esties use such language - and have to believe it, else what are they to make of their own poodle state?
And they are not simply stooges for the US, for they also carry the heart and soul of the EU
They are, au contraire, heroic standard bearers for peoples who have lost their way
Coup Alert! TREASON! Democrat Deep State Planning to Install Harris in Presidency Before Trump’s Inauguration,
Then Trump Will Be Conveniently Assassinated, Next, WW3 with Russia, False Flag Terror Attacks Will Provide Cover For Martial Law to Be Declared the Satanic deep state is publicly plotting a coup attempt on the incoming Trump administration.
https://satchidanand.substack.com/p/trump-will-be-conveniently-assassinated
Fantasy...maybe it's something you ate?!
Not quite--- there have been some loony Dems claiming this is an idea
the mushrooms.... yummy.
They say getting a pet and the act of stroking it calms the nerves and releases tension. Have you tried that?
We are not heading to WW3 simply because none of the big boys want it. This is just a last hoo ha to get Russia to do a deal, and to keep Ukraine fighting for the meantime just so that the forthcoming collapse does not happen on Biden's watch. That is all. Anything other than putting in troops en masse, EXCEPT going nuclear.
The problem is that this VASTLY increases the risks of a terrible accident. Imagine Z manages to hit a nuclear power plant or nuclear weapons silo with those missiles. And who is in charge in the US? Things could get out of control quick.
Panick over - imagine if The Russians bombed New York!
The missiles are controlled by NATO staff every step the way. Ukranians may pull the trigger and stand by the launchers, getting blown up, but they don't control the targeting. AFAIK.
Sweet, early publish time. I'll read some before bed and some with coffee. Always appreciate your work good sir. Thanks as always. The best money I spend is your subscription.
you also bought me a subscription. Thank you
I stand corrected: your subscription is the best money I spend. I am happy to be of service and I hope you are enjoying all of Mr. S' excellent articles. Take care.
yes, thank you so much I felt and feel included in the community
It really does warm my heart that you can enjoy this. I'm sure Mr. S is more than pleased to have you.
Take this in the most lighthearted way possible: get a room you two!
By the night? Or the hour?
To prove the Germans are really out of money and out of war plans
The Lithuania German Brigade looks less and less likely
Previous recent reports gave doubt as to the extent of the Lithuania determination and budget to build the necessary $1B++ infastructure to hous the now mythical German Brigade
Despite the small size and extent of the committment, 5,000 men, Germany has taken already so far 3 years to get to the stage of wondering if the Lithuanian government can build the infrastructure neccessary for deploymnet planned for 2027 (end of)
To say nothing of the uncertain formation of the Brigade in Germany, so far no troops signed up, apart from te 20 soldiers sent already, so far no arms uniforms nor socks have been located
Now another Lithuania report that German political chaos has stalled necessary legislation
It looks like both sides are wriggling out of the unique expression of German military build up so far observed, apart from the planning to re inforce some roads better to take tanks
This may be an expression of clear thinking by the Lithuania Government Class – why go out of our way to provoke our very large well armed neighbour with an attempt at an expensive pinprick – just as they have decided the Taiwan pinprick has brought much more grief , moss of money, loss of trade, loss of political stature, than anything else
As has the Lithuania President made friendly speeches directed to normalising relations with China
But- simultaneously – the opposition party wishes to increase Defence Spending to 3.5%
While- simultaneously- the President is reported to wish to avoid the committment to raising a division by 2030, wishes to push out to 2036 :2040
By then they’ll have to be demonising VVP’s grandchildren, but….
Who said that playing the poodle was easy ?
Annexe
« Nausėda supports intentions to normalise diplomatic relations with China »
November 5 2024
https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/nauseda-supports-intentions-to-normalise-diplomatic-relations-with-china-120062477
"Relations between China and Lithuania should be based on the principle of mutual trust and international commitments. The president supports the strive to normalise diplomatic relations between Lithuania and China, but the interest must be mutual. The president hopes that China will change its decision to downgrade the level of diplomatic representation and that ambassadors will return to work in both countries," the Communications Group of the Office of the President stated in a written comment sent to ELTA on Tuesday. However, the presidency notes that maintaining diplomatic ties with China does not mean that Lithuania should reject trade and economic relations with Taiwan «
‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416279/lithuania-pm-candidate-seeks-to-boost-defence-spending-to-3-5-of-gdp
In which, also, the President is reported to wish to avoid the committment to raising a division by 2030, wishes to push out to 2036 :2040
Meanwhile the fierce FM, Gabrielus Landsbergis, in Brussels FM meet, has tough words on China
18 November 2024
https://www-tagesschau-de.translate.goog/ausland/baerbock-drohnen-china-100.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
« According to diplomats, drone production is a joint project between Russia, China and Iran. Baerbock said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine was also an attack on freedom in Europe and affected the core interests of all European states.Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis demanded that the EU react "decisively". It must not show weakness because it fears the Chinese reaction, said Landsbergis, referring to Europe's dependence on raw materials from the People's Republic »
‘Berlin coalition collapse threatens Lithuania brigade plans’
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2414174/berlin-coalition-collapse-thr fected by the coalition collapse, the German Defence Ministry and the opposition eatens-lithuania-brigade-plans
Berlin's plans to deploy a combat brigade to Lithuania in 2026 [sic] remain unaffected Conservatives insist. However, the necessary legislation for the brigade has stalled in the political chaos.
One of the two crucial bills is still on its way to the German parliament, the other is already in the Bundestag.
The parliament has not yet ratified the treaty signed between Vilnius and Berlin in September, which defines the rights of German soldiers, civilians and their families who will be stationed in the Baltic country.
Lithuania’s Seimas ratified the treaty in October, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius promising to follow suit in early 2025. However, his ministry is now unable to give a clear timeline.
In a written reply to LRT.lt, the German Defence Ministry said the legislation was submitted to the Cabinet on November 6 and will then go to the Bundesrat, the federal council, being passed on to the Bundestag, the parliament.
“The possible dissolution of the Bundestag has no impact on its ability to carry out its parliamentary mandate. The Bundesrat and the Bundestag will decide on the dates of the hearings independently. It is therefore not possible to predict specific dates,” the ministry said.
The second law is the so-called “add-ons package”, which creates financial incentives for soldiers who decide to serve in Lithuania.
This is expected to attract the almost 5,000 soldiers needed to join the brigade.
According to the Defence Ministry, a draft law has already been submitted to the German Bundestag, but the timeline is unpredictable.
On November 6, the ruling coalition collapsed when the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked the Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner. With the loss of the third member (FDP), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens (Die Grüne) no longer have a sufficient majority in the Bundestag.
Scholz said he hoped that key laws, including those that attract a broad consensus, would be supported by the opposition conservative (CDU/CSU) group.
However, the Conservatives which are leading the polls pressured Scholz by not promising to support legislation until the Chancellor holds a vote of no confidence.
Scholz then reached a compromise to hold a vote of confidence on December 16, which could pave the way for early elections on February 23 next year.
Scholz gave a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday, defending the government’s decisions and appealing to the opposition for support.
However, the leader of the parliamentary opposition and CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said Scholz “cannot impose any conditions”.
The Conservatives did pledge support for some laws, such as the amendments to the Federal Constitutional Court Act, but demanded that all other issues be negotiated in each Bundestag plenary session.
LRT.lt contacted the Bundestag political groups for information regarding the laws important for the brigade’s deployment.
Speaking off the record, politicians said that there was talk of clear timelines in the current chaos, as the agenda can change any day.
Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU group has signalled its support for the brigade’s deployment, but has not promised to back Scholz blindly.
In his reply to LRT.lt, CDU/CSU MEP Florian Hahn, responsible for security policy issues, criticised the slow pace of the brigade’s deployment.
“A year has passed and the German government has not submitted any draft legislation on the Lithuanian brigade for approval. As soon as the draft law is submitted to the Bundestag, we will assess it responsibly and, if necessary, submit amendments,” he said.
“German-Lithuanian cooperation is of particular importance to the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag and we will not jeopardise it in any way,” he added.
Polls show some 33 percent of the electorate backing CDU/CSU if the elections were held next Sunday. However, this also means that they would not achieve a majority and would have to look for coalition partners.
The Social Democrats, which are polling third with 15 percent or the Greens (fourth with 12 percent), could help form a ruling coalition.
The Liberal FDP, the traditional partners of the Conservatives, are unlikely to reach the 5-percent barrier. In contrast, the populist alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht are expected to get 6 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also has a good chance of gaining ground – they are projected to come second with 17 percent. However, the traditional parties said they would not cooperate with AfD. » »
‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416279/lithuania-pm-candidate-seeks-to-boost-defence-spending-to-3-5-of-gdp
« « Lithuania’s 2025 draft state budget will be revised to increase defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, Gintautas Paluckas, the Social Democratic candidate for prime minister, said on Monday.
He noted that the country would need to borrow additional funds to meet its defence commitments.
“The current draft budget for next year will be revised, aiming to increase the defence allocation to 3.5 percent of GDP,” Paluckas said during a discussion on TV3.
“In the short term, the need for defence funding will have to be met by increasing public debt. Tax changes will have an effect; they will gradually fill up the defence fund, year by year. However, the need [for national defence] is obviously greater as the timeframe shortens,” he said.
Currently, Lithuania allocates around 2.5 billion euros, or about 3.2 percent of GDP, to defence.
Next year’s draft budget earmarks a similar amount for national defence, but with projected economic growth, this will represent just over 3 percent of GDP.
Public debt is projected at 43.2 percent of GDP.
Paluckas also emphasised the need for a detailed defence financing plan, particularly to accelerate the establishment of the planned military division.
“Taking defence seriously, we’ll have to draw up a full financing plan to see in which year the funds are needed,” he said.
President Gitanas Nausėda said last week that Lithuania could consider sidestepping European fiscal rules to develop a full military division by 2030.
Defence officials said after a meeting of the president-chaired State Defence Council a few weeks ago that, with the current defence funding, Lithuania’s military division could achieve full operational capability in 2036–2040, instead of 2030 as previously planned.
Nausėda also said that advancing the division’s establishment to 2030 would require an additional 10 billion to 14 billion euros in defence funding over this period.
He said that spreading this financial requirement over six years would mean allocating 5 to 5.5 percent of GDP to defence.
The so-called EU Maastricht criteria require that the public finance deficit should not exceed 3 percent of GDP in a given year and that public debt remains below 60 percent of GDP. » »
Germany, decades out of practice, can't quite get the hang of how to build a proper military. Maybe their slow-footing this belies an insidious fear: once they start, they cannot stop.
You may be right.....but it does seem strange that the one thing they promised to do they find it, for bureaucratic and political reasons, impossible to do
Despite the neos at the Kiel Institute
Despite the Lits or Lats or Esties
More on them later, but all these seem to be having second thoughts, sort of
The Esties have come up with a plan so outrageous that it's exactly out of Zelensky's book, in which the more extravagantly useless the idea is the easier it is to sell to those who have nothing to lose - as per the Germans perhaps, certainly to the Brit
Like Venture Capitalist hype-stock for war-hawks
The Germans seem much influenced by a concern for Rheinmetall's stock price
And the Baltics are busy forllowing suite setting up war factories
But - are they not a little too late to the game?
Meanwhile Mark Rutte is busy signing F-35 deals all over Europe....
comment coming
>>even if Ukraine did score a hit, it was once again nothing more than a ‘low hanging fruit’
Did the HIMARS only destroy "low handing fruit" that had "no effect on the war" in the summer of 2022? Please...
They are going for a repeat of the same thing, but on a much large scale.
>>Think about it this way, according to Zelensky and official Ukrainian government statistics, Russia has launched over 6000-7000 total missiles at Ukraine during the war thus far, and one can see Ukraine is still kicking.
Ukraine is still kicking for two reasons:
1) It has a currently still untouchable rear. Had Putin had the testicular fortitude to isolate Ukraine from NATO with the surgical application of the appropriate tools, the war would have been over a long time ago. Now Russia no longer has an untouchable rear, so it is about to become an even more uneven playing field stacked against Russia.
2) There were and still are baffling restriction on targeting inside Ukraine too, that are completely sabotaging the war effort.
Putin could have fully disabled AFU logistics and decapitated Ukraine within 24 hours of deciding to do so. But he has not done it, because reasons.
This is why those 6000-7000 missiles have had so little effect.
But NATO is not going to impose such self-defeating restrictions on itself. So their strikes will have much more of an effect.
>>Well, the IMF has just done their latest report and has officially concluded that Russia has blown past both Germany and Japan as of 2024
Nobody cares -- missiles are not flying into Germany and Japan and they are not going to have their industrial base gradually destroyed by missile and drones strikes. Russia is.
Yes, the HIMARS didn't do much in summer of 2022 contrary to the popular propaganda narrative. I've written about it before (which you can find in past article) that Ukrainian officials at one point admitted that HIMARS had no real effect during the Kherson offensive, and this was merely an information package. All the stuff about blowing up depots and hitting a few train stations was just noise to make it seem like Russia's withdrawal from Kherson was due to Ukraine's offensive power, when in reality Ukraine was being beaten badly and Russia only withdrew due to general need to consolidate lines (due to low manpower at time) plus the threat of Kakhovka dam cutting off Kherson contingent.
I wasn't even talking about Kherson, I was talking about July and August 2022, though Kherson is an even more obvious example.
You would do well to check on what Russians themselves say about the impact. It is the exact opposite of what you are claiming.
These strikes on ammo depots near the border are a very obvious preparation for an even larger land invasion than what happened on August 6
I'm well aware of all the small cherry picked Russian tales about it from the same 2 or 3 doomer accounts like Murz and co. You on the other hand would do well to read outside of your echochamber what other more impartial experts wrote about those strikes. They were no where near as consequential as you think.
And you would be better off not making "estimations" on GDP since you are an illiterate person who finds it difficult to read the restaurant bill. And may be you could read the official document of the Russian Central Bank with their estimates for 2025.
Genetically Modified at it again. Doing what he does best, insulting the Russian leadership. How's your war and your Substack doing?
GM why not write your own substack ? It would be nice to read your thoughts together. I think you have more than few valid points
The day after Joe okayed missile strikes into Russia, a country which is a nuclear superpower second to none, a nytimes op-edder stated earnestly that “Donald Trump’s re-election to the American presidency is a threat to global peace and security.”
Irony much—?!!?
Now they, the DJT team, “have the power to execute all of their depravity on Day One w/ the full backing of American governmental power virtually unchecked.”
What planet, what world—?!!?
With permission to strike into Russia, especially to target DPRK troops wherever they may surge, the cunning & crafty Ukrainians might go on a drunken spree and crazily rent a fishing sloop in Hokkaido, strap a multi-launch system to it and then churn across the Sea of Japan in order to fire ATACMS on DPRK troops in Vladivostok.
There are no DPRK troops stationed in Vladivostok, ready to fight the Ukrainians, but the West, in that Saddam-Hussein-has-weapons-of-mass-destruction mind-set insists that there are. Reality cannot obstruct the West’s aims, which are to take pot-shots @ Russia before Daddy comes home and hammers out an eventual peace plan.
The NYT is almost as foolish as Zelensky
Shoot down the bridge to Crimea! Now’s your chance!!!
maybe if they had 500 atacms
I do hope Oprah, Taylor Swift & Stephen King have read the Deagle Report.
>>
https://nobulart.com/deagel-2025-forecast/
Hi Simplicius. I like your description of Starmer. Most hated politician in UK history it seems
The UK’s political situation is extremely dire unfortunately. In the last election, we had a choice between Sunak and Starmer. In the next election, it will be between Starmer and Badenoch. We are just doomed basically. I don’t see things improving in the UK until it breaks free of the globalist neo con chokehold.
The economic woes suffered by the UK currently is directly related to its policies against Russia. The sky high energy prices, which, at one point was more than the mortgage payment is ruining lives and the economy. Imagine, for a second, if we were ‘allowed’ to have a gas pipeline and a good relationship with Russia. The UK economy can flourish again. For example, Russia has excellent medical professionals in abundance, which can help resolve the NHS crisis, where you can potentially wait for months for an X-Ray.
The people who control Starmer, Badenoch, Sunak, Johnson et al. are the real enemies of the British people. Not Russia.
Hi @HT, there is more of a choice than the two you have mentioned, which is the biggest problem here in the UK. A lot of people, and I mean a lot, only consider the two main parties, all others are discounted.
Whilst people have this myopic view, nothing will change since they will flip flop between them, and as stated in many a media source, but not main stream media I hasten to add, they are two cheeks of the same arse.
Be brave, vote differently!
Well I voted reform, which is a little different. But Nigel is a big Atlanticist too, albeit of the Trump brand. The change needs to come from the US, but that's a long shot.
I think there might be something psychologically / neurologically wrong with Starmer - he admitted in an interview that he never dreams at night, has no favourite books and never had a phobia, even as a child. That isn't normal.
Traits of a psychopath
"He makes it clearer than ever to see just how captured these inhuman globalist puppets are—they have no sovereignty nor soul, just dead husks of skin masquerading in a bad Kabuki, monotoning the same bad stump speeches and rehearsed scripts for their masters."
That sentence is a heat-seeking missile. Jake Sullivan's commissar wife Maggie Goodlander carpetbagged a Congressional seat in New Hampshire. She used the abortion of their only pregnancy as a weapon on the campaign trail: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/maggie-goodlander-jake-sullivan-commissar-couple
And the dead-eyed part right before that. Right on point.
Mark Rutte, Romania, and the NATO extortion campaign
Another one for the Mark Rutte Collection Fund : As recorded in links below
The NATO extortions continue as if nothing will ever change
Romania leaderships talks up the Russian scare, asks NATO for more protection
In return Romania signs the letter of intent to buy 32 F-35s
These planes here called ‘state of the art’ : but this is only true in the cruel sense – as readers here know the F-35 is barely capable of flight, is the ‘NATO Hangar Queen’
But has value as ransom
$7.2Billion for 32 planes or $225M per plane : Compare costs, below, with other EU countries
Part of prolific recent Romnain gvmt program of military spending total of $14B
This is how the US entraps small countries into a death spiral
Annexe
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/romania-to-invest-e14-billion-in-military-modernization/#google_vignette
F-35 Cost price to US Gvmt
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/07/f-35s-price-might-rise-lockheed-warns/398323/#:~:text=The%20F%2D35B%20vertical%20take,F%2D35C%20at%20%24102.1%20million.
« The deal struck for the last contract—for lots 15 through 17—had put the average flyaway cost of the Air Force’s F-35A variant at $82.5 million. The F-35B vertical take-off and landing variant came in at $109 million, and the carrier-based F-35C at $102.1 million. These numbers were slightly higher than in the preceding lots, but still lower in real terms »
Unit Cost price, with spare parts, ground support etc-- to EU gvmts $120 Million ++ $197M for Norway, $147M for Finland, 144M for Poland, $164M for Switzerland, $122M For Mark Rutte with special discount, $192M for Belgium, $311M for Germany, between $100M and 120m for the UK, Italy $312M, Spain $225M, Greece $ 175M, Turkey ……
« Rutte-Ciolacu meeting in Brussels. Romanian PM Urges NATO to Boost Eastern Flank and Black Sea Presence »
November 18, 2024
https://www.romaniajournal.ro/politics/rutte-ciolacu-meeting-in-brussels-romanian-pm-urges-nato-to-boost-eastern-flank-and-black-sea-presence/
« « On Monday 18 November 2024, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu at NATO Headquarters to discuss security in the Black Sea region, but also strengthening the Eastern Flank at the Black Sea and strengthening the alliance’s presence in Romania.
NATO chief Mark Rutte thanked Prime Minister Ciolacu for Romania’s numerous contributions to the Alliance. Romania invests more than 2% of its GDP on defence, hosts a NATO multinational battlegroup, and contributes troops to NATO missions in Kosovo and Iraq.
At the end of the meeting, in his turn, PM Ciolacu said that “Romanians are safe”.
The Prime Minister announced that he shares NATO Secretary General’s vision that no country can tackle security threats alone. “The fact that we are stronger together is a reality, not just a slogan. That is why I expressed Romania’s gratitude to the Secretary General, both to our Allies who provide concrete support and to NATO for adopting measures specifically dedicated to Romania in land and air defense. We have a significant Allied military presence in Romania, but I asked the Secretary General to support the enhancement and strengthening of this presence, as well as the consolidation of NATO’s posture on the Eastern Flank and in the Black Sea. Such steps are indispensable for credible deterrence against Russian threats,” the Romanian PM stated.
Ciolacu also noted that he had felt the NATO Secretary General’s solidarity from the beginning of his mandate, particularly during the firm declaration of support for Romania following the Russian drone incident in October. “We are ready to contribute to strengthening the Alliance and maintaining a strong transatlantic relationship. This is especially crucial given the extremely complex security context we face. The Russian Federation has chosen to become NATO’s greatest threat. Russia has brought war back to Europe, right to Romania’s borders, heightening our citizens’ concerns. That’s why we are here, at NATO headquarters, standing shoulder to shoulder, to send a strong message that Romanians are safe and stable. Romania is part of NATO; the Alliance has a substantial presence in our country, which guarantees that every inch of our territory is fully protected,” said Ciolacu after his meeting with Mark Rutte.
He added that the violations of Allied airspace and Russia’s aggressive posture in the Black Sea underline the importance of increasing troop numbers in the region and delivering a united and solid response from the Alliance.
Ciolacu also informed the Secretary General that this week Romania will sign a letter of acceptance with the U.S. for the acquisition of 32 state-of-the-art F-35 aircraft. Additionally, he reiterated Romania’s consistent support for Ukraine and Moldova. “We recently witnessed attempts to derail Moldova’s European path. We have a duty to support Chișinău, and we wish to contribute together to this effort,” the Romanian Prime Minister added during his visit to Brussels, leading a government delegation that included Foreign Affairs Minister Luminița Odobescu and Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr.
It's hard to appear tough and stalwart when you are getting your ass slowly and utterly kicked.
Newly subscribed and asking myself what I have been waiting for 🤦🏼♂️ Thanks again for the great analysis.
Like polling accuracy just before the U.S. presidential election, the IMF data was malleable enough to *show* that Germany & Japan were still outpacing Russia economically.
When the math is this fungible, the West will cling to it
All such data is dependent on local country stats, even tho( the IMF and World Bank do do checks, these can not be comprehensive
Other indications like electricity usage are useful
China, being good capitalists, do not consider services are part of the economy in the sense they provide stats angled towards material production, and ignore such parasitic developements as much as they can
See Han Feizi at Asia Tmies
Lol…if you’re interested in seeing how misinformed the pro Ukraine people are check this out.
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/11/19/2287151/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-unleashes-ATACMS-on-Russian-ammo-site
They think Russian causalities are well over 500,000 and that Russia's economy is in ruins. These people are going to be so surprised when Ukraine sues for peace. Make sure you read the comments.
Jesus Christ! Killing half a million Russians would certainly start a nuclear war. That would be TERRIFYING news. WTF are these people thinking?
My concern is if the Neocons authorized and initiated this, what’s to stop them from lobbing those ATACMS at NPP’s? And if they do what the fuck does Russia do then? This is an unthinkable escalation scenario which borderlines on treason with Trump and the Gang coming into power in 2 months. It’s ballsy than anything I have ever seen perhaps. It seems to me they are prepared to do for broke.
Here is Judge Nap and Doctorow. I cannot recommend it enough you FF to the 8min mark and listen to the most important speech Trump has ever given IMHO. It is extremely powerful and cuts right to the bone. He calls out all the right people. Ritter was on with the Judge yesterday and does an excellent job explaining Trump’s cabinet. It’s as I have suspected Trump is ready to finish the game.
To be fair it wasn’t all that long ago that I had lost confidence in Trump. I accused him of actually being the Deep States man this time around to help recruit for “their” wars. That Time has Passed. Here’s the Judge and DT is bit after 8min. It’s a must listen for those who haven’t heard it.
https://www.youtube.com/live/Go--8rh8Kx0?si=tDYRGKDOJqz2-CKN
Here’s the Ritter one too
https://www.youtube.com/live/ezQ0aY-csFM?si=MzOCnL-P5ksQ0jHo
I wish they mentioned that that Trump speech is from March 2023. It was one of his Agenda 47 speeches. They were acting as if it was a new speech.
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-preventing-world-war-iii
PS And Simp I don’t think it’s fair we equate the Deagle report to Nuclear Armageddon. The Deagle report is for pussy shit like pandemics and famines. I’m of the mindset that if one nuke goes off they all go. Annie Jacobsen and Scott Ritter seem to agree. So if that happens Deagle will be completely incorrect. There will soon be no one alive in any nation. Ok a few stragglers here and there but you get the drift. 😉
Any idiot who believes in 'limited nuclear response' is crazy and should be excised from power.
Agreed, anyone who does has no understanding of violence. I used to get into a lot of fights. I am very lucky to have survived some of them. But I learned pretty damn quick; if you know it’s coming to blows then by God don’t wait to get hit. Hit first and hit hard! I don’t see nuclear war being any different.
Nuclear weapons are about deterrence. If they are used, everyone fears losing their arsenal to an enemy strike, so you have a lot of incentive to use them before you lose them. SLBM forces - subs - are the exception to this.
Then, you have to consider the vendetta-style nature of the counterstrike. Let's say someone was foolish enough to use a single warhead. This will cause casualties and you'll have people screaming for blood. You would expect reprisal. The reprisal will cause sufficient casualties to compel a counter-reprisal, and so it goes.
I don't have enough faith in humanity to see them stopping before full release.
Can you imagine the tension in the world should one be used. It would be hell. As the late great Tom Petty sang “The waiting is the hardest part.” What a complete nightmare. And that’s the problem it becomes as you said “use them before you lose them.”
Can we finally get to our "Fallout" / "Mad Max" fantasies? Please??
The 2 atom bombs that *were* dropped swept their target cities clean of anything taller than a human being; with current ones having several times the yield, what you won't see are artistically disfigured ruins as in Fallout 3 and later. Those games make Boston and DC look like they would in the aftermath of a regular WW2 bombing, not 2 centuries after multiple multi-megaton strikes as in the game lore.
Thanks for the context. Even though I realize that, it's nice to see people are willing and able to teach others on the subject!
It's statistically impossible to kill Keith Richards.
He will have to repopulate the world.
Unfortunately, this observation appears to also apply to Nancy Pelosi.