435 Comments
Comment deleted
Nov 21
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Show work.

Expand full comment

Writing for Ria Novosti on 18 November, Irina Alksnis weighed in on the option Kiev now has, what with ATACMS missile strikes into pre-2014 Russia.

“Russia is winning – on the battlefield, in economic terms, and geopolitically. At the same time, the space for maneuver in the West is narrowly limited, regardless of which strategy it chooses for further actions - the continuation of the conflict or exit from it. The possibilities for warfare in the current format are almost exhausted, moreover. Given Moscow’s military successes, the furtherance of the conflict will be a meaningless waste of increasingly scarce resources.”

So Alksnis’s estimation is a commonsensical one we’ve heard largely from alt-media sources who are indeed free to reckon w/ the incontrovertible fact that Ukraine, led by OTAN, has lost the war—a view Western-captured media are not at liberty to explore.

Alksnis does see a hubristic arrogance in Joe’s drive to escalate while walking out the door: “The West’s plan has one vulnerability: they believe that Putin is unlikely to start WW3 because of such a *small thing* as the long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.” The gamble, in other words, is that the West can roll whatever dice it wishes but that Russia will drag its feet & ultimately do nothing in response. The West has always behaved w/ the churlish assumption that Putin *has* no red lines.

Alksnis interrogates this: “Is the West the only one ready to start WW3 if Russia, in response to the arrival of ATACMS, hits a NATO military object, like an American radar detection and guidance aircraft over the Black Sea? It is a *small thing* too.” It is immaterial if Alksnis speaks to a strong sentiment within Russia, but the change in U.S. doctrine about missile strikes in Bryansk or Belgorod or Rostov-on-Don presents enough of an opening for Russia to respond robustly & proportionately if it chooses.

Hinge-point.

Expand full comment

But has anything changed re US missile policy? As S reports most of this so called change does not appear to be 'official'

Boosting a drone over the Black sorry Red Sea is going to provoke WW3?

The Ansar Allah do this on a daily almost basis

Expand full comment

I agree, Gerrard. Ukraine has to believe the west is still on board. The rest of us, don't though.

Expand full comment

Well the West is still on board, as far as it can persuade itself that it is

The West has been a lot of talk, and very little action, there's perhaps now even less action, but still a lot of talk

There are a lot neo cons in EU willing to take over -the Kiel group

Listen to the Estonians, a mouth piece for the Brits, a mouth piece in turn for the Ynaks

''Some analysts believe any European effort to shore up Ukraine could be organised by a coalition of the willing, starting with Poland and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a defence group that includes the Nordic and Baltic states and the Netherlands. These countries, who are meeting in Tallinn next month, are Ukraine’s staunchest supporters and account for two-thirds of European bilateral military aid to Kyiv.

It would be essential for France and Germany also to come on board, Tsahkna said. Germany is Ukraine’s second-largest donor of military aid after the US.

Britain had the “opportunity and all the responsibility to take the leadership” of Europe’s efforts to bolster Ukraine’s security, while Poland was also playing a very active part in the discussions, he added. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last week said he would engage in talks with the US, Nato and European allies on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security.

Tsahkna said he did not believe Trump would abandon Nato because it was not in America’s political or economic interests to leave Europe at the mercy of an imperialist Russia. But the Europeans would have to show they were willing to invest more in their own defence.

Estonia spends the equivalent of 3.4 per cent of its GDP on defence and wants Nato to agree a minimum spending level of 2.5 per cent, up from 2 per cent, at the alliance’s summit in The Hague in June next year.

Europe lacked weapons stockpiles and needed to do more to expand defence industrial capacity, the minister said.

“But what we do have is money. We have lots of money. I do not believe those governments who say they cannot ask for more from their people because we have done in Estonia,” Tsahkna said, referring to taxes rises enacted by Tallinn specifically to fund higher defence spending.

With Ukraine now seen as Nato’s first line of defence, it was Europe’s security architecture that could be reshaped in the coming months and not just Ukraine’s fate, he said.

“We just cannot wait on whatever the US decides.”

Expand full comment

Let's quit serious talk of warmongering non-entities. The 'coalition of the willing' going it on their own outside the NATO ie US umbrella was run several times over the last year or so, and got the finger and a lot of mouth foaming fury from the warhead nutters. Noise is what the EU is good at. It is all it has left now.

Expand full comment

Noise is what the EU is all about

But this Estonia quote is not EU, it is JEF, the Brits, and is a direct line from UK to the US

The US likes to fight wars by proxy

Expand full comment

It is still just noise.

Expand full comment

They're all hat and no cattle.

Expand full comment

If you are describing 'they' as the US, and you ought to be

Since when did that stop them from making chaos in Afghan Ukraine and Gaza?

Expand full comment

Using the language such as '....to shore up Ukraine...' is criminally remiss.

What's meant is shore up Kiev Ukraine, the regime.

Using that language actually maintains the US lying narrative.

Anyone using it is wittingly or unwittingly a stooge for the lying murderers of Washington.

Expand full comment

No they do not mean what you claim - they think they say they support no régime they support a sparkling shining democratic citizen nation

Of course the Esties use such language - and have to believe it, else what are they to make of their own poodle state?

And they are not simply stooges for the US, for they also carry the heart and soul of the EU

They are, au contraire, heroic standard bearers for peoples who have lost their way

Expand full comment

Gerrard I think you're 100% right that any European initiative needs Germany and France on board, and that's where it falls down.

Both Macron and Scholz are too weak to take their countries down such an unpopular road. There is strong political opposition to such madness in both countries.

Starmer has no effective opposition, but there is so little we can contribute. And the potential backlash from an ill advised intervention would be massive.

And even Tusk isn't stupid enough to do more than secure the former Polish territories that Russia doesn't want.

Expand full comment

Exactly, very well said

Expand full comment

Coup Alert! TREASON! Democrat Deep State Planning to Install Harris in Presidency Before Trump’s Inauguration,

Then Trump Will Be Conveniently Assassinated, Next, WW3 with Russia, False Flag Terror Attacks Will Provide Cover For Martial Law to Be Declared the Satanic deep state is publicly plotting a coup attempt on the incoming Trump administration.

https://satchidanand.substack.com/p/trump-will-be-conveniently-assassinated

Expand full comment

Fantasy...maybe it's something you ate?!

Expand full comment

Not quite--- there have been some loony Dems claiming this is an idea

Expand full comment

the mushrooms.... yummy.

Expand full comment

Apparently AI controlled Bots now send Satanic Phoenician Mega Trillionaire Propaganda against all the Real People on every social media. Authors employ boys to increase the size - fake - of their audience. Satanic Phoenician Mega Trillionaires use bots to join authors and pay them. Apparently X is 80% bots! Substack, judging from the bile here is not far behind!

Expand full comment

Time to leave the digital jungle and get back to the Garden.

Expand full comment

Not as crazy as one might think. Leftie think tanks have drawn up various scenarios to this end. They hate Trump so much, they'd do it in a heartbeat. Maybe they'll skip that and just start a war to introduce emergency powers. Terence McKenna was right when he said, "I think it's just going to get weirder and weirder and weirder and finally it's going to be so weird that people are going to have to talk about how weird it is. People are gonna say what the hell is going on. It's just too nuts… We can put up with about anything. It's a good thing because we're going to be tested to the limits."

Expand full comment

The Satanic Phoenician Mega Trillionaires like the Rothschilds think that Trump really wants to clean the swamp by putting them all in jail. Nuremberg 2 after the Deathvaxx and WW3 is on the boards. They already tried to assassinate him twice with wind-up toy mind controlled. This time they will employ professionals to kill Trump. If Trump is assassinated then WW3 goes ahead against Russia, China and Iran. This to me is the most important post!

Expand full comment

I'm sure they'll try something. However, I hope you are wrong.

Expand full comment

"The Satanic Phoenician Mega Trillionaires like the Rothschilds think that Trump really wants to clean the swamp by putting them all in jail."..............The MEGA crowed may believe that, but the deep state players do not. Trumps lineup of neocons tells me, and them, his efforts to drain the swamp will be the same as in 2016......nothing. You don't appoint swamp creatures to drain the swamp. You wonder about Tulsi, RFKjr and Gaetz? I believe they were only bait for the voters since the chance that they are approved by the food soldiers of the swamp is small.....and Trump knows that. After he has to replace them with another appointment, don't be surprised to see those replacements mirror the rest of his appointments of neocons. At the same time, he can blame those who prevented the appointments, saying "I tried." The MEGA crowed will consider that a persuasive argument.

Expand full comment

If Trump Reneges on his Promises…

I can just see the CIA writers sitting around a huge mahogany table smoking cigars, trying to one-up each other with the craziest stuff they could come up with…

Drag-queen story hours? Tranny promotion 24/7? Post-birth abortions/infanticides? Forced vaccinations? Holy wars in Israel and Ukraine? Institutionalized censorship and repealing the First Amendment? Repealing the Second Amendment? Repealing the Fourth Amendment? Packing the Supreme Court? Open borders? Men in women's sports? Reverse sexism and racism at top volume, with white men being attacked all the livelong day just for being born? Civil War reparations 155 years after the fact? January 6 is worse than 911 and Pearl Harbor? And then Sustainability because of fake Global Warming, United Nations Vaccine Mandates, United Nations Agenda 2030, Agenda 2040, Agenda 2075, Communism, CBDC’s, Social Credit Score, De-Banking, Fema Camps, the Final Solution of killing all White Males in Hillary’s Fun Camps.

And they might as well have had rampant inflation and food shortages on their platform, since their policies had created that as well. Given all that, any sane person should find it amazing Harris got even one vote, if she did.

You have to follow through this time, demanding that Trump and the rest deliver on their promises.

https://satchidanand.substack.com/p/if-trump-renages-on-his-promises

Expand full comment

It's not that fantastical. Trump claims he'll get rid of MIC, intelligence agencies, deepstate, globalists etc...that's a sureshot invitation for homicide. Not that I believe he plans to do anything for real. But the fact is that US has see much more capable, intelligent, shrewd and patriotic leaders than Trump. There's a reason why none has been able to survive or change anything.

Expand full comment

Zelensky will escalate the war

Putin will be even more timid than usual

This is because he thinks that Tucker Carlson and his friends will save him

So he will have to play it cool and hope that his leniency will be rewarded

Washington pretends that there is serious internal opposition to the war agenda

But there is a strong possibility that this is a kind of “Operation Trust” psyop used on the Russian government to give them false hope and to keep them from fighting back seriously

Prior to the elections, I also wrote about how there would now be a Serbia-style mass bombing campaign over Russia, like the kind that was used to bring the Serbs to heel after their failed Special Military Operation into Bosnia in the wake of the break-up of Yugoslavia. I compared Putin’s inaction or disastrous half-actions to the behavior of Milosovic, who was revealed to be a CIA asset the whole time and who thought that he would be rewarded for his disastrous undermining of the Serbian military and national interests by his handlers.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-151903113

Expand full comment

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS THINKS THAT PUTIN IS STUPID!

But Putin is Not Stupid. WEF Member Putin Has Proven his Treachery to the Russian People and his Compliance with the Klaus Schwab Great Reset and the UN Agenda 21

https://satchidanand.substack.com/p/paul-craig-roberts-thinks-that-putin

Expand full comment

Nobody's killing Trump. The first assassination was obviously fake. They made it so fake they must categorize anyone drinking the coolaid as complete morons. And his 2cm long, to the cartilage wound, healed up perfectly in 7 days, and even got it's tan back. Lol

Expand full comment

Yes, it looked pretty staged. And I believe a deal has been made between Trump and the powers to be. But if he really tries to hurt their deep interests, then he can easily be dealt with.

Expand full comment

Oh yeah, they're all criminals playing a serious game. I should mention that for anyone interested in investigating the shooting, search YouTube for "Roll Up, Roll Up The Trump Circus is in Town." Watch that over and over. Move the curser back so you can just watch each person over and over, one at a time. Eventually you'll realize you've been had. And had by the worst actors in all of history. Hopefully Trump can make America's Acting Schools Great Again. There's more to investigate but that's where I'd start. BitChute has much more stuff.

Expand full comment

Historically, all who tried have been assassinated.

Expand full comment

They say getting a pet and the act of stroking it calms the nerves and releases tension. Have you tried that?

Expand full comment

We are not heading to WW3 simply because none of the big boys want it. This is just a last hoo ha to get Russia to do a deal, and to keep Ukraine fighting for the meantime just so that the forthcoming collapse does not happen on Biden's watch. That is all. Anything other than putting in troops en masse, EXCEPT going nuclear.

Expand full comment

The problem is that this VASTLY increases the risks of a terrible accident. Imagine Z manages to hit a nuclear power plant or nuclear weapons silo with those missiles. And who is in charge in the US? Things could get out of control quick.

Expand full comment

Panick over - imagine if The Russians bombed New York!

Expand full comment

The missiles are controlled by NATO staff every step the way. Ukranians may pull the trigger and stand by the launchers, getting blown up, but they don't control the targeting. AFAIK.

Expand full comment

Oh, FFS, that was one example of how things could get off rail. But fine, I wish I was living in denial too.

Expand full comment

What's really going on never makes it down to our level. You're getting wound up over a narrative.

WW III will be about wipping Israel and the Muslims in the Middle East off the map for good. We're close but not there yet. Most likely Trump will play a huge roll in that.

Expand full comment

"Pike wrote that the first war would be a war to overthrow the Russian Czars, as related in a previous chapter and to destroy the Russian monarchy through a contrived conflict with the British and Germanic empires. The second war would be instigated through the Zionist struggle and would establish a Zionist-Jewish ‘homeland’ in Palestine (again, see the chapters on WWI and WWII).

Regarding the possible third war, Pike wrote:

“The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the agents of the Illuminati, between the political Zionists and the leaders of the Islamic world.  The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam [the Arab nations of the Middle East] and political Zionism [Israel] will mutually destroy each other.  Meanwhile, the other nations, once more divided on this issue, will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economic exhaustion…  We shall unleash the nihilists and the atheists and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil.”  Albert Pike, 1871."

The above is from the chapter on WW III from the book The Falsification of History: Our Distorted Reality by John Hamer. It's so accurate that I suspect it is fake. Israel didn't exist in 1871.

Expand full comment

"ze;ensky" does not program these missiles USA does so unless yu think US would strike a nuclear plant you have nothing to worry about.

This is just to keep AFU fighting so collapse does not happen on Bidens watch. It's 100% PR like Kursk invasion, Backmut, and many other tactically inept stunts

Expand full comment

I think it is a mistake to view old Joe as fully capable of controlling the deep state. These people behind the teleprompter may not be in synch with him most of the time and they were difficult to control already for Trump. We shall see where this all will go when Donny takes over. I think it will just continue with possible further escalation. As awful as it sounds I think the problem Russia has is it kills to few Ukrainians so that the rest of them can claim that they are winning. The Winter is now there but I do not think that matters. It is the numbers of soldiers Ukraine can send to fight or as a decoys.

Expand full comment

Winter favors the aggressor, if Putin wants to get it over, now is the time!

Expand full comment

“…The West has always behaved w/ the churlish assumption that Putin *has* no red lines.”

And yet somehow ignores the fact that the announcement by President Putin of the commencement of the SMO in 2022 and the subsequent deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine was a rather significant and direct response to a clearly stated red line.

Expand full comment

The reason for the start of the Special Military Operation was the refusal of the USA to return to the borders of 1997, when Russia and NATO signed the Founding Act. With this document, the parties confirmed that they did not consider each other as adversaries.

Expand full comment

Sweet, early publish time. I'll read some before bed and some with coffee. Always appreciate your work good sir. Thanks as always. The best money I spend is your subscription.

Expand full comment

you also bought me a subscription. Thank you

Expand full comment

I stand corrected: your subscription is the best money I spend. I am happy to be of service and I hope you are enjoying all of Mr. S' excellent articles. Take care.

Expand full comment

yes, thank you so much I felt and feel included in the community

Expand full comment

It really does warm my heart that you can enjoy this. I'm sure Mr. S is more than pleased to have you.

Expand full comment

Take this in the most lighthearted way possible: get a room you two!

Expand full comment

By the night? Or the hour?

Expand full comment

S's Substack...Tinder for thinking people.

Expand full comment

To prove the Germans are really out of money and out of war plans

The Lithuania German Brigade looks less and less likely

Previous recent reports gave doubt as to the extent of the Lithuania determination and budget to build the necessary $1B++ infastructure to hous the now mythical German Brigade

Despite the small size and extent of the committment, 5,000 men, Germany has taken already so far 3 years to get to the stage of wondering if the Lithuanian government can build the infrastructure neccessary for deploymnet planned for 2027 (end of)

To say nothing of the uncertain formation of the Brigade in Germany, so far no troops signed up, apart from te 20 soldiers sent already, so far no arms uniforms nor socks have been located

Now another Lithuania report that German political chaos has stalled necessary legislation

It looks like both sides are wriggling out of the unique expression of German military build up so far observed, apart from the planning to re inforce some roads better to take tanks

This may be an expression of clear thinking by the Lithuania Government Class – why go out of our way to provoke our very large well armed neighbour with an attempt at an expensive pinprick – just as they have decided the Taiwan pinprick has brought much more grief , moss of money, loss of trade, loss of political stature, than anything else

As has the Lithuania President made friendly speeches directed to normalising relations with China

But- simultaneously – the opposition party wishes to increase Defence Spending to 3.5%

While- simultaneously- the President is reported to wish to avoid the committment to raising a division by 2030, wishes to push out to 2036 :2040

By then they’ll have to be demonising VVP’s grandchildren, but….

Who said that playing the poodle was easy ?

Expand full comment

Annexe

« Nausėda supports intentions to normalise diplomatic relations with China »

November 5 2024

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/nauseda-supports-intentions-to-normalise-diplomatic-relations-with-china-120062477

"Relations between China and Lithuania should be based on the principle of mutual trust and international commitments. The president supports the strive to normalise diplomatic relations between Lithuania and China, but the interest must be mutual. The president hopes that China will change its decision to downgrade the level of diplomatic representation and that ambassadors will return to work in both countries," the Communications Group of the Office of the President stated in a written comment sent to ELTA on Tuesday. However, the presidency notes that maintaining diplomatic ties with China does not mean that Lithuania should reject trade and economic relations with Taiwan «

‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416279/lithuania-pm-candidate-seeks-to-boost-defence-spending-to-3-5-of-gdp

In which, also, the President is reported to wish to avoid the committment to raising a division by 2030, wishes to push out to 2036 :2040

Meanwhile the fierce FM, Gabrielus Landsbergis, in Brussels FM meet, has tough words on China

18 November 2024

https://www-tagesschau-de.translate.goog/ausland/baerbock-drohnen-china-100.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

« According to diplomats, drone production is a joint project between Russia, China and Iran. Baerbock said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine was also an attack on freedom in Europe and affected the core interests of all European states.Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis demanded that the EU react "decisively". It must not show weakness because it fears the Chinese reaction, said Landsbergis, referring to Europe's dependence on raw materials from the People's Republic »

‘Berlin coalition collapse threatens Lithuania brigade plans’

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2414174/berlin-coalition-collapse-thr fected by the coalition collapse, the German Defence Ministry and the opposition eatens-lithuania-brigade-plans

Berlin's plans to deploy a combat brigade to Lithuania in 2026 [sic] remain unaffected Conservatives insist. However, the necessary legislation for the brigade has stalled in the political chaos.

One of the two crucial bills is still on its way to the German parliament, the other is already in the Bundestag.

The parliament has not yet ratified the treaty signed between Vilnius and Berlin in September, which defines the rights of German soldiers, civilians and their families who will be stationed in the Baltic country.

Lithuania’s Seimas ratified the treaty in October, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius promising to follow suit in early 2025. However, his ministry is now unable to give a clear timeline.

In a written reply to LRT.lt, the German Defence Ministry said the legislation was submitted to the Cabinet on November 6 and will then go to the Bundesrat, the federal council, being passed on to the Bundestag, the parliament.

“The possible dissolution of the Bundestag has no impact on its ability to carry out its parliamentary mandate. The Bundesrat and the Bundestag will decide on the dates of the hearings independently. It is therefore not possible to predict specific dates,” the ministry said.

The second law is the so-called “add-ons package”, which creates financial incentives for soldiers who decide to serve in Lithuania.

This is expected to attract the almost 5,000 soldiers needed to join the brigade.

According to the Defence Ministry, a draft law has already been submitted to the German Bundestag, but the timeline is unpredictable.

On November 6, the ruling coalition collapsed when the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked the Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner. With the loss of the third member (FDP), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens (Die Grüne) no longer have a sufficient majority in the Bundestag.

Scholz said he hoped that key laws, including those that attract a broad consensus, would be supported by the opposition conservative (CDU/CSU) group.

However, the Conservatives which are leading the polls pressured Scholz by not promising to support legislation until the Chancellor holds a vote of no confidence.

Scholz then reached a compromise to hold a vote of confidence on December 16, which could pave the way for early elections on February 23 next year.

Scholz gave a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday, defending the government’s decisions and appealing to the opposition for support.

However, the leader of the parliamentary opposition and CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said Scholz “cannot impose any conditions”.

The Conservatives did pledge support for some laws, such as the amendments to the Federal Constitutional Court Act, but demanded that all other issues be negotiated in each Bundestag plenary session.

LRT.lt contacted the Bundestag political groups for information regarding the laws important for the brigade’s deployment.

Speaking off the record, politicians said that there was talk of clear timelines in the current chaos, as the agenda can change any day.

Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU group has signalled its support for the brigade’s deployment, but has not promised to back Scholz blindly.

In his reply to LRT.lt, CDU/CSU MEP Florian Hahn, responsible for security policy issues, criticised the slow pace of the brigade’s deployment.

“A year has passed and the German government has not submitted any draft legislation on the Lithuanian brigade for approval. As soon as the draft law is submitted to the Bundestag, we will assess it responsibly and, if necessary, submit amendments,” he said.

“German-Lithuanian cooperation is of particular importance to the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag and we will not jeopardise it in any way,” he added.

Polls show some 33 percent of the electorate backing CDU/CSU if the elections were held next Sunday. However, this also means that they would not achieve a majority and would have to look for coalition partners.

The Social Democrats, which are polling third with 15 percent or the Greens (fourth with 12 percent), could help form a ruling coalition.

The Liberal FDP, the traditional partners of the Conservatives, are unlikely to reach the 5-percent barrier. In contrast, the populist alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht are expected to get 6 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also has a good chance of gaining ground – they are projected to come second with 17 percent. However, the traditional parties said they would not cooperate with AfD. » »

‘Lithuania PM candidate seeks to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP’

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416279/lithuania-pm-candidate-seeks-to-boost-defence-spending-to-3-5-of-gdp

« « Lithuania’s 2025 draft state budget will be revised to increase defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, Gintautas Paluckas, the Social Democratic candidate for prime minister, said on Monday.

He noted that the country would need to borrow additional funds to meet its defence commitments.

“The current draft budget for next year will be revised, aiming to increase the defence allocation to 3.5 percent of GDP,” Paluckas said during a discussion on TV3.

“In the short term, the need for defence funding will have to be met by increasing public debt. Tax changes will have an effect; they will gradually fill up the defence fund, year by year. However, the need [for national defence] is obviously greater as the timeframe shortens,” he said.

Currently, Lithuania allocates around 2.5 billion euros, or about 3.2 percent of GDP, to defence.

Next year’s draft budget earmarks a similar amount for national defence, but with projected economic growth, this will represent just over 3 percent of GDP.

Public debt is projected at 43.2 percent of GDP.

Paluckas also emphasised the need for a detailed defence financing plan, particularly to accelerate the establishment of the planned military division.

“Taking defence seriously, we’ll have to draw up a full financing plan to see in which year the funds are needed,” he said.

President Gitanas Nausėda said last week that Lithuania could consider sidestepping European fiscal rules to develop a full military division by 2030.

Defence officials said after a meeting of the president-chaired State Defence Council a few weeks ago that, with the current defence funding, Lithuania’s military division could achieve full operational capability in 2036–2040, instead of 2030 as previously planned.

Nausėda also said that advancing the division’s establishment to 2030 would require an additional 10 billion to 14 billion euros in defence funding over this period.

He said that spreading this financial requirement over six years would mean allocating 5 to 5.5 percent of GDP to defence.

The so-called EU Maastricht criteria require that the public finance deficit should not exceed 3 percent of GDP in a given year and that public debt remains below 60 percent of GDP. » »

Expand full comment

Germany, decades out of practice, can't quite get the hang of how to build a proper military. Maybe their slow-footing this belies an insidious fear: once they start, they cannot stop.

Expand full comment

You may be right.....but it does seem strange that the one thing they promised to do they find it, for bureaucratic and political reasons, impossible to do

Despite the neos at the Kiel Institute

Despite the Lits or Lats or Esties

More on them later, but all these seem to be having second thoughts, sort of

The Esties have come up with a plan so outrageous that it's exactly out of Zelensky's book, in which the more extravagantly useless the idea is the easier it is to sell to those who have nothing to lose - as per the Germans perhaps, certainly to the Brit

Expand full comment

Like Venture Capitalist hype-stock for war-hawks

Expand full comment

The Germans seem much influenced by a concern for Rheinmetall's stock price

And the Baltics are busy forllowing suite setting up war factories

But - are they not a little too late to the game?

Expand full comment

Meanwhile Mark Rutte is busy signing F-35 deals all over Europe....

comment coming

Expand full comment
Nov 20Edited

>>even if Ukraine did score a hit, it was once again nothing more than a ‘low hanging fruit’

Did the HIMARS only destroy "low handing fruit" that had "no effect on the war" in the summer of 2022? Please...

They are going for a repeat of the same thing, but on a much large scale.

>>Think about it this way, according to Zelensky and official Ukrainian government statistics, Russia has launched over 6000-7000 total missiles at Ukraine during the war thus far, and one can see Ukraine is still kicking.

Ukraine is still kicking for two reasons:

1) It has a currently still untouchable rear. Had Putin had the testicular fortitude to isolate Ukraine from NATO with the surgical application of the appropriate tools, the war would have been over a long time ago. Now Russia no longer has an untouchable rear, so it is about to become an even more uneven playing field stacked against Russia.

2) There were and still are baffling restriction on targeting inside Ukraine too, that are completely sabotaging the war effort.

Putin could have fully disabled AFU logistics and decapitated Ukraine within 24 hours of deciding to do so. But he has not done it, because reasons.

This is why those 6000-7000 missiles have had so little effect.

But NATO is not going to impose such self-defeating restrictions on itself. So their strikes will have much more of an effect.

>>Well, the IMF has just done their latest report and has officially concluded that Russia has blown past both Germany and Japan as of 2024

Nobody cares -- missiles are not flying into Germany and Japan and they are not going to have their industrial base gradually destroyed by missile and drones strikes. Russia is.

Expand full comment

Yes, the HIMARS didn't do much in summer of 2022 contrary to the popular propaganda narrative. I've written about it before (which you can find in past article) that Ukrainian officials at one point admitted that HIMARS had no real effect during the Kherson offensive, and this was merely an information package. All the stuff about blowing up depots and hitting a few train stations was just noise to make it seem like Russia's withdrawal from Kherson was due to Ukraine's offensive power, when in reality Ukraine was being beaten badly and Russia only withdrew due to general need to consolidate lines (due to low manpower at time) plus the threat of Kakhovka dam cutting off Kherson contingent.

Expand full comment
Nov 20Edited

I wasn't even talking about Kherson, I was talking about July and August 2022, though Kherson is an even more obvious example.

You would do well to check on what Russians themselves say about the impact. It is the exact opposite of what you are claiming.

These strikes on ammo depots near the border are a very obvious preparation for an even larger land invasion than what happened on August 6

Expand full comment

I'm well aware of all the small cherry picked Russian tales about it from the same 2 or 3 doomer accounts like Murz and co. You on the other hand would do well to read outside of your echochamber what other more impartial experts wrote about those strikes. They were no where near as consequential as you think.

Expand full comment

And you would be better off not making "estimations" on GDP since you are an illiterate person who finds it difficult to read the restaurant bill. And may be you could read the official document of the Russian Central Bank with their estimates for 2025.

Expand full comment

Cumino. If you don't value Simplicius' opinion, why are you here mate?

I won't offer you advice, but if I did, it would involve sex and travel.

Expand full comment

less sex with himself and more travel away from this site?

Expand full comment

takes a special kind of idiot to argue in writing with an illiterate person, no?

Expand full comment

Who's arguing?

Expand full comment

Pretend Russia were striking the United States with missiles.

What would the American response be?

Expand full comment

Ask you to comment more

Expand full comment

Iran has shelled U.S.A. military bases several times. The US-Iranian war has still not started. Therefore, I assess the USA readiness to fight on its own as low.

Expand full comment

Genetically Modified at it again. Doing what he does best, insulting the Russian leadership. How's your war and your Substack doing?

Expand full comment

GM why not write your own substack ? It would be nice to read your thoughts together. I think you have more than few valid points

Expand full comment

Please...NO. Then again, if he did he maybe would spare us here his drivel.

Expand full comment

You’re just jealous. He’s a better writer and thinker than you. He speaks harsh but undeniable truths. It’s sad, but it’s the reality. If Russia wants a brighter future, it needs to follow men like him. GM is the perfect example of a hardboiled, stubborn, straightforward, and honorable Russian man

Expand full comment

lol he’s a fucken yank.

Expand full comment

Are you sure ? I am starting to think he is the only russian man in comments

Expand full comment

Niggah , you really are a thick mutt.

Expand full comment

I would advise you to get a map and search for the city of Izhevsk for example. This is where the Kalashnikov, Kupol an a few other industries are located. It is more than 1.300 kilometres away from the front. And it's just one of many, I am not even talking about stuff that is past the Urals. If you think that the Russian strategic depth has been compromised you are so wrong.

Expand full comment
Nov 20Edited

I agree with much of what you have said about getting West to backoffr& red lines and such but if decapitated fast Ukraine wouldnt be denazified now would it? Killing lots of nazi volunteers (i'd estimate over 1 million) aids in denazification.. Look at that polling Ukraine wants to quit now. Not so eager to kill the Rooskies anymore are they?

When this war is over Ukrainians will hate west, their own leadership and never FAFO again. That took time. Not to mention integrating ethnic Russian areas takes time.

Expand full comment
Nov 20Edited

This isn't Hezbollah where you have a ground movement that will always regenerate leadership because they are fighting for their own group survival.

This is a hostage rescue situation.

There are indeed a couple million committed Galician Nazis, but the whole Ukrainian population being used as the West's cannon fodder and a platform for attack on Russia is the doing of a small circle of people, most of them not actually Galician Nazis.

In this case decapitation would actually work in terms of disruptung the Ukrainian war machine -- these are people who are in it because of the money they get, but money is not of much use if you are dead.

Expand full comment

Nobody cares what Ukrainians want.

Expand full comment

Assuming those decapitation strikes would do the job and make the Ukraine capitulate, they wouldn’t solve the problem for Russia in the long term. The number of Bandera-minded men eager to fight will be in amount of several hundred thousand. CIA will back them with money and weapons. Attrition works well to solve problems in the long run.

The US did decapitate Iraq and Afghanistan. To what purpose in the long run?

Expand full comment

Russia no longer has untouchable rear becouse of 300km missiles? Have you ever seen a map of Russia ? ? ? Lol

Expand full comment

The day after Joe okayed missile strikes into Russia, a country which is a nuclear superpower second to none, a nytimes op-edder stated earnestly that “Donald Trump’s re-election to the American presidency is a threat to global peace and security.”

Irony much—?!!?

Now they, the DJT team, “have the power to execute all of their depravity on Day One w/ the full backing of American governmental power virtually unchecked.”

What planet, what world—?!!?

With permission to strike into Russia, especially to target DPRK troops wherever they may surge, the cunning & crafty Ukrainians might go on a drunken spree and crazily rent a fishing sloop in Hokkaido, strap a multi-launch system to it and then churn across the Sea of Japan in order to fire ATACMS on DPRK troops in Vladivostok.

There are no DPRK troops stationed in Vladivostok, ready to fight the Ukrainians, but the West, in that Saddam-Hussein-has-weapons-of-mass-destruction mind-set insists that there are. Reality cannot obstruct the West’s aims, which are to take pot-shots @ Russia before Daddy comes home and hammers out an eventual peace plan.

Expand full comment

The NYT is almost as foolish as Zelensky

Expand full comment

The lying liars at the NYT are scribbling BS. The "newspaper" really does have some utility

though. A useful depository for used coffee grounds and as toilet paper. (not recommended for septic systems!). Used as TP however, one is susceptible to "inky bottom syndrome". People read this pompous rag to fool themselves and rationalize wars and genocide. Bigly sad.

Expand full comment

I hear that it's mostly used because of their crossword puzzle.

Expand full comment

You can get it free on the Seattle Times site.

Expand full comment

Shoot down the bridge to Crimea! Now’s your chance!!!

Expand full comment

maybe if they had 500 atacms

Expand full comment

I do hope Oprah, Taylor Swift & Stephen King have read the Deagle Report.

>>

https://nobulart.com/deagel-2025-forecast/

Expand full comment

@cheetosSpring

Edwin A. Deagle III, not his father Dr. Edwin A. Deagle Jr., the military academy graduate, Rockefeller Foundation officer, once proposed as assistant secretary of USAF, & etc..

Note the difference between "Deagle" and "DeagEl" in the URL?

Expand full comment

Hi Simplicius. I like your description of Starmer. Most hated politician in UK history it seems

Expand full comment

The UK’s political situation is extremely dire unfortunately. In the last election, we had a choice between Sunak and Starmer. In the next election, it will be between Starmer and Badenoch. We are just doomed basically. I don’t see things improving in the UK until it breaks free of the globalist neo con chokehold.

The economic woes suffered by the UK currently is directly related to its policies against Russia. The sky high energy prices, which, at one point was more than the mortgage payment is ruining lives and the economy. Imagine, for a second, if we were ‘allowed’ to have a gas pipeline and a good relationship with Russia. The UK economy can flourish again. For example, Russia has excellent medical professionals in abundance, which can help resolve the NHS crisis, where you can potentially wait for months for an X-Ray.

The people who control Starmer, Badenoch, Sunak, Johnson et al. are the real enemies of the British people. Not Russia.

Expand full comment

Hi @HT, there is more of a choice than the two you have mentioned, which is the biggest problem here in the UK. A lot of people, and I mean a lot, only consider the two main parties, all others are discounted.

Whilst people have this myopic view, nothing will change since they will flip flop between them, and as stated in many a media source, but not main stream media I hasten to add, they are two cheeks of the same arse.

Be brave, vote differently!

Expand full comment

Well I voted reform, which is a little different. But Nigel is a big Atlanticist too, albeit of the Trump brand. The change needs to come from the US, but that's a long shot.

Expand full comment

Farage is just a Tory.

Expand full comment

Vote for the LibDems? Hahaha I jest obviously.

Expand full comment

This is a problem of all Western countries. In Germany Scholz (SPD) will be kicked out and Merz (CDU) will follow, more of the same. In Austria the oppositon (real opposition) won 1/3 of the vote, so the other partys unite to form the government. In Spain you have the left-wing-parties ruling, but the alternative is more of the same. Should we talk about Belgium, Sweden (...)

Expand full comment

Well said.

Trouble is, the people you refer to have deliberately played their whole hand on the globalist chokehold - a highly organised and powerful minority who belong in Dante's Inferno.

Ordinary British people have been fucked over royally by these cunts but how could they break free, like you say. At the moment there's just fantasising about an uprising or Starmer et al receiving the Gaddaffying they deserve; or the fantasy that Trump will cut them off because global android Starmer is pushing his luck with the incoming president, not to mention Moscow.

I would love such as this to happen; and promethean consequences for those who control UK media but how could it be done without outside help. The UK's population is overrun and demoralised but if there was a way to reconnect to Russian and China hope is not lost.

Expand full comment

My advice is to move to the outer Hebredies

Expand full comment

Indeed. Is that far enough to escape nuclear carnage.Thailand and South-East Asia also appear increasingly attractive to millions of Westerners of all ages.

Meanwhile, in my fantasy world, Russia will feign a nuclear attack while knowing where the bunkers are located. Once Starmer and the repugnant coterie of UK globalists smugly seek shelter there they receive the massive thermobaric bunker busters they so thoroughly deserve.

Expand full comment

LOVELY idea - although now without its drawbacks

Expand full comment

That would require brits to be something other than sheep, meek as they are led to the slaughterhouse.

Expand full comment

The issue is theyve engineered duopoly political choices in usa, uk, australia etc facilitated by a main stream media class of propagandists.

So now our voting is irrelevant 2 the actual operation of the financial system, weapons industry and general crime rackets overseen by the corporate and oligarth rulers.

Kinda like its back 2 feudal days except they dont even chuck in a house 4 the serfs anymore

Expand full comment

Since the British people only will be offered a slate of carefully selected muppets, it won't matter.

Expand full comment

I'm so sorry for the great British people. Its horrible what's happening there and its being reflected by Canada - but not as extreme. Britain has to get rid of the monarchy - they are the center of the globalist agenda and although it won't fix everything its a great start and Canada as well has to get rid of the crown....that damn King pudgy fingers owns all of Canadian land - its called Crown Land. Its terrible and according to eyewitnesses the so called royal parasites are also human blood drinking Satanists like the Rothschild family

Expand full comment

Russophobia and longing for relevance comes at a price, paid as always by the ordinary people

Expand full comment

Spot in comment its the people who control our politicians who are the enemy.

I have more in common with a bank clerk in beijing or russia than i do with the elites running my country.

Expand full comment

I think there might be something psychologically / neurologically wrong with Starmer - he admitted in an interview that he never dreams at night, has no favourite books and never had a phobia, even as a child. That isn't normal.

Expand full comment

Traits of a psychopath

Expand full comment

He’s your zeitgeist uk😧

Expand full comment

He's an avatar for globalism; I suspect an android. Perhaps Mr. Icke has a point.

Expand full comment

There's no shortage of Nazi wankers on here and I hate to give them succour, but I genuinely believe that Starmer cares more for Israel than he does the UK. Can't stand the man.

Expand full comment

No, Starmer, like the rest of the british ruling class, seeks to please his American Master. For its part, Master cares about Israel.

Expand full comment

Married to a Jew.

Expand full comment

I bet he likes screwing babies though

Expand full comment

Starmer is hated. So what, as long as his orders are carried out?

Expand full comment

"He makes it clearer than ever to see just how captured these inhuman globalist puppets are—they have no sovereignty nor soul, just dead husks of skin masquerading in a bad Kabuki, monotoning the same bad stump speeches and rehearsed scripts for their masters."

That sentence is a heat-seeking missile. Jake Sullivan's commissar wife Maggie Goodlander carpetbagged a Congressional seat in New Hampshire. She used the abortion of their only pregnancy as a weapon on the campaign trail: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/maggie-goodlander-jake-sullivan-commissar-couple

Expand full comment

And the dead-eyed part right before that. Right on point.

Expand full comment

I very much enjoyed that sentence too; forensically spot-on. Bravo Simplicius.

Expand full comment

On the plus side, maybe that abortion signals the end of their genetic line. I'd call that a win.

Expand full comment

Very well described. Starmer is also a shameless liar, who makes Boris Johnson seem like the mythically honest George Washington.

Expand full comment

Mark Rutte, Romania, and the NATO extortion campaign

Another one for the Mark Rutte Collection Fund : As recorded in links below

The NATO extortions continue as if nothing will ever change

Romania leaderships talks up the Russian scare, asks NATO for more protection

In return Romania signs the letter of intent to buy 32 F-35s

These planes here called ‘state of the art’ : but this is only true in the cruel sense – as readers here know the F-35 is barely capable of flight, is the ‘NATO Hangar Queen’

But has value as ransom

$7.2Billion for 32 planes or $225M per plane : Compare costs, below, with other EU countries

Part of prolific recent Romnain gvmt program of military spending total of $14B

This is how the US entraps small countries into a death spiral

Expand full comment

Annexe

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/romania-to-invest-e14-billion-in-military-modernization/#google_vignette

F-35 Cost price to US Gvmt

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/07/f-35s-price-might-rise-lockheed-warns/398323/#:~:text=The%20F%2D35B%20vertical%20take,F%2D35C%20at%20%24102.1%20million.

« The deal struck for the last contract—for lots 15 through 17—had put the average flyaway cost of the Air Force’s F-35A variant at $82.5 million. The F-35B vertical take-off and landing variant came in at $109 million, and the carrier-based F-35C at $102.1 million. These numbers were slightly higher than in the preceding lots, but still lower in real terms »

Unit Cost price, with spare parts, ground support etc-- to EU gvmts $120 Million ++ $197M for Norway, $147M for Finland, 144M for Poland, $164M for Switzerland, $122M For Mark Rutte with special discount, $192M for Belgium, $311M for Germany, between $100M and 120m for the UK, Italy $312M, Spain $225M, Greece $ 175M, Turkey ……

« Rutte-Ciolacu meeting in Brussels. Romanian PM Urges NATO to Boost Eastern Flank and Black Sea Presence »

November 18, 2024

https://www.romaniajournal.ro/politics/rutte-ciolacu-meeting-in-brussels-romanian-pm-urges-nato-to-boost-eastern-flank-and-black-sea-presence/

« « On Monday 18 November 2024, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu at NATO Headquarters to discuss security in the Black Sea region, but also strengthening the Eastern Flank at the Black Sea and strengthening the alliance’s presence in Romania.

NATO chief Mark Rutte thanked Prime Minister Ciolacu for Romania’s numerous contributions to the Alliance. Romania invests more than 2% of its GDP on defence, hosts a NATO multinational battlegroup, and contributes troops to NATO missions in Kosovo and Iraq.

At the end of the meeting, in his turn, PM Ciolacu said that “Romanians are safe”.

The Prime Minister announced that he shares NATO Secretary General’s vision that no country can tackle security threats alone. “The fact that we are stronger together is a reality, not just a slogan. That is why I expressed Romania’s gratitude to the Secretary General, both to our Allies who provide concrete support and to NATO for adopting measures specifically dedicated to Romania in land and air defense. We have a significant Allied military presence in Romania, but I asked the Secretary General to support the enhancement and strengthening of this presence, as well as the consolidation of NATO’s posture on the Eastern Flank and in the Black Sea. Such steps are indispensable for credible deterrence against Russian threats,” the Romanian PM stated.

Ciolacu also noted that he had felt the NATO Secretary General’s solidarity from the beginning of his mandate, particularly during the firm declaration of support for Romania following the Russian drone incident in October. “We are ready to contribute to strengthening the Alliance and maintaining a strong transatlantic relationship. This is especially crucial given the extremely complex security context we face. The Russian Federation has chosen to become NATO’s greatest threat. Russia has brought war back to Europe, right to Romania’s borders, heightening our citizens’ concerns. That’s why we are here, at NATO headquarters, standing shoulder to shoulder, to send a strong message that Romanians are safe and stable. Romania is part of NATO; the Alliance has a substantial presence in our country, which guarantees that every inch of our territory is fully protected,” said Ciolacu after his meeting with Mark Rutte.

He added that the violations of Allied airspace and Russia’s aggressive posture in the Black Sea underline the importance of increasing troop numbers in the region and delivering a united and solid response from the Alliance.

Ciolacu also informed the Secretary General that this week Romania will sign a letter of acceptance with the U.S. for the acquisition of 32 state-of-the-art F-35 aircraft. Additionally, he reiterated Romania’s consistent support for Ukraine and Moldova. “We recently witnessed attempts to derail Moldova’s European path. We have a duty to support Chișinău, and we wish to contribute together to this effort,” the Romanian Prime Minister added during his visit to Brussels, leading a government delegation that included Foreign Affairs Minister Luminița Odobescu and Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr.

Expand full comment

Once a critic of the MIC pointed out: We will develope the ulitimate plane. Fast, nimble, with a lot of deadly weapons, unvisible to radar, a lot of self defence, wonderful on board radars, armoured like a battleship. But this ultimate war machine will be so expensive, only a very few can be built. And wherever these machines go into war, they will dominate. But as there are so few, all the other sectors of the front will get lost. This critic accepted at least, they will produce something useful, but the F35 is not even this, it is only expensive.

Expand full comment

Well the plane is useful for extortion

One must assume that the various country airforces are well aware of the uselessness of the plane, everyone else is

But they happily pay the ransom knowing that the planes create no threat to the RF, and will not be treated as a threat, or to China, or ....etc

So - two birds with one stone

Plus the pols can get cockpit time with Zelensky - the Nordic Queens love to do this

Expand full comment

I am puzzled, almost anything the F-35 can do missiles can do at a fraction of the cost. The F-35 is only useful against adversaries without advanced missile defense, work which can be competently handled by less expensive aircraft.

Expand full comment

It's hard to appear tough and stalwart when you are getting your ass slowly and utterly kicked.

Expand full comment

Newly subscribed and asking myself what I have been waiting for 🤦🏼‍♂️ Thanks again for the great analysis.

Expand full comment

You made an excellent choice Aaron, check out the archives.

Expand full comment

Like polling accuracy just before the U.S. presidential election, the IMF data was malleable enough to *show* that Germany & Japan were still outpacing Russia economically.

When the math is this fungible, the West will cling to it

Expand full comment

All such data is dependent on local country stats, even tho( the IMF and World Bank do do checks, these can not be comprehensive

Other indications like electricity usage are useful

China, being good capitalists, do not consider services are part of the economy in the sense they provide stats angled towards material production, and ignore such parasitic developements as much as they can

See Han Feizi at Asia Tmies

Expand full comment

Lol…if you’re interested in seeing how misinformed the pro Ukraine people are check this out.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/11/19/2287151/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-unleashes-ATACMS-on-Russian-ammo-site

They think Russian causalities are well over 500,000 and that Russia's economy is in ruins. These people are going to be so surprised when Ukraine sues for peace. Make sure you read the comments.

Expand full comment

Jesus Christ! Killing half a million Russians would certainly start a nuclear war. That would be TERRIFYING news. WTF are these people thinking?

Expand full comment

My concern is if the Neocons authorized and initiated this, what’s to stop them from lobbing those ATACMS at NPP’s? And if they do what the fuck does Russia do then? This is an unthinkable escalation scenario which borderlines on treason with Trump and the Gang coming into power in 2 months. It’s ballsy than anything I have ever seen perhaps. It seems to me they are prepared to do for broke.

Here is Judge Nap and Doctorow. I cannot recommend it enough you FF to the 8min mark and listen to the most important speech Trump has ever given IMHO. It is extremely powerful and cuts right to the bone. He calls out all the right people. Ritter was on with the Judge yesterday and does an excellent job explaining Trump’s cabinet. It’s as I have suspected Trump is ready to finish the game.

To be fair it wasn’t all that long ago that I had lost confidence in Trump. I accused him of actually being the Deep States man this time around to help recruit for “their” wars. That Time has Passed. Here’s the Judge and DT is bit after 8min. It’s a must listen for those who haven’t heard it.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Go--8rh8Kx0?si=tDYRGKDOJqz2-CKN

Here’s the Ritter one too

https://www.youtube.com/live/ezQ0aY-csFM?si=MzOCnL-P5ksQ0jHo

Expand full comment

I wish they mentioned that that Trump speech is from March 2023. It was one of his Agenda 47 speeches. They were acting as if it was a new speech.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-preventing-world-war-iii

Expand full comment