A new central flashpoint around the issue of Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons has suddenly taken hold of the narrative after Zelensky appeared to imply that Ukraine’s future can only be secured either via NATO or nuclear weapons.
Racial slurs of any kind are not allowed here, against any race or religion, for the sake of upkeeping a semblance of decorum and hospitable conversation space. Given the severity of what you wrote, I'm forced to give you a moderate-length ban.
For once a more or less accurate assessment of the impact and the strength of the AA from the kernal of the US military machine
As the toughest and least amenable and most extremely well defended & in general militarily impervious to US military intervention
One of the very few westie authors to note the significance of the AA set up in Irak
Barring one or two bended knees to ideological icons such as Iran backed, and maybe RF supported
Which help the authors lead into a startling but inaccurate conclusion that it would be easier for the US to shut down Iran so to deprive the AA of power
The truth is that insurgent groups as dedicated as the AA have an aversion of outside control which matches their irredentist ideology and ensures that they are beholden to no one
The Russians know one when they see one, as do the North Koreans
Yemen are the fly in the ointment to the grand plan. It could be argued that their intervention has totally fucked the whole thing for USUK. Imagine if they weren't involved.
Exactly - thank you for this - and I'd say they were in fact invincible or the closest one can imagine to that, there's a lot more they can do even, single handed stalemate
Even the North Koreans, no fools at going their own way, do not have this degree of autonomy, although they can play the same ish role in east Asia
So, for all practical purposes, and unless NATO steps in, Russia commands the destiny of Ukraine.
But, after all the dust settles, what will Ukraine look like?
I think Russia should command all of what was formerly Ukraine and rename it "Western Russia". That way the Western media could spin it as "Boy, we sure kicked those Russian asses in Western Russia". Ukraine was a failed experiment best forgotten and re-birthed.
Next, I think Russia should allow for a salient 25km by 150km inland (Keep your friends close and your possible enemies closer) along its westernmost part of New Russia, with its own autonomy similar to that of Hong Kong in China. It's the point from which Russia does business with Western Europe. Sanctions or not, Russia holds the European energy lifeline it needs to function as a society. Some Western countries are likely to break away from US's diminishing global hegemon as a last desperate measure to restore their economies. Russia tells the world, "We are open for business". (profit maximization)
Upon taking over, Russia should allow the right to citizenship of Western Russia over the conquered and liberated land or a free ticket to a country that will take them. Of course, basic citizen screening applies requiring certain conditions to qualify. (weed out the malfeasants)
And last, surrender means the enemy is not to touch or damage their weapons as they are now Russian property with applicable property laws and legal punishment for offenders. Those weapons will be trophies and some re-purposed.
Any other ideas?
I think Russia's failure to take Ukraine at the most opportune time would result in a strategic defeat because it would fail to eliminate the threat long term. What would NATO do in Russia's place? They'd take over the whole country a la Desert Storm, man. Shock and Awe those Ruskins to surrender. "Bombs away, pilot", "Roger that, Fallen Eagle".
Russia seems to have incrementally increased the pressure, these threats of escalation provide ample reason for Russia to turn it up even faster. The Nazi presence so obvious to many of us should have the whole NATO alliance hanging it's head in shame. We pay you for defense and you go Fascist on us!
I think we know from our experience of this organization over many years and in many theatres that its purpose has never been defensive.
You use the word "nazi," and the clear-headed amongst us realize that this term is double-speak for "jewish," as all the main players both in the west and in Ukraine itself are of this ethnicity.
The fact that they cloak themselves in the honourable symbols of the Third Reich is simply demonstrative of their ability to successfully gaslight those who observe their ongoing shenanigans
Stop with the nonstop Jew thing. We get it but you don't need to spam about it 24/7 otherwise it begins to look like a discrediting operation. Most forums have rules to stay 'relatively' on topic anyway, and though I allow people to go off topic, that crosses a line when the "off topic" discussion is spammed so numerously that it begins overtaking the "on topic" one in volume.
To me it is irrelevant the title a psychopath hides behind. It seems likely that Jewish people are probably, by the numbers, among the smartest people on the planet.
However they have been hijacked and used by psychopaths with an evil agenda. These psychos will wear any uniform at hand to perpetuate their agenda.
They have infiltrated every single institution in the world. They are insidious. According to Robert Hare they make up between 4-6% of any given population.
So there are way more psychopaths than Jews! Those who shout it is all the Jews fault are likely psychos.
Thanks Deplorable. I'll bite. Anyone who forms core beliefs from watching, tv, film or lots of video. So yes, some of my beliefs are dumb as sometimes watch video. Occasionally glimpse tv, it always shocks me. Rarely 'get' references from film.
Least favorite core belief. It's all Putin's fault. Replace with? Psychos rule the world.
Oh boy; there's a lot of competition for the dumbest. Then again, it depends on the type of intelligence. Trump is average in intellectual intelligence but he could hustle a physicist with a 160 IQ.
Among the smartest if you want an exact quote. Turns out psychos are very adept at manipulating all people. They are impeccable liars. Hare was asked where he would look to research psychopathic behaviors if he lost access to prisoner populations. Wall St. I guess the contention I would make is Psychopaths are our source of grief more than any given ethnic group.
"The fact that they cloak themselves in the honourable symbols of the Third Reich is simply demonstrative of their ability to successfully gaslight those who observe their ongoing shenanigans"
This is a warning, stop the endless race-baiting and attacking of members. There are MANY other forums on the internet where you'll be welcomed to post 24/7 on this topic. But these posts are off-topic and hostile/antagonistic and will now be removed in force.
Tim please don't put words in my mouth or include me in your rants as a willing participant. Have no desire to understand what would make the symbols "honorable" in your world.
Had you read my comments, you would have noticed that I never said anything supportive of "nazis," rather, I was supportive of National Socialists, and the two terms are antithetical.
I think you miss the point that NATO was birthed from Nazism. Do some research on Operation Gladio, or operation Paperclip. Later on Operation Aerodynamic continues the same modus operandi. And it wasn't only Nazism. Don't forget the US moved almost the entire Unit 731 from China to the US after the defeat of the Imperial Japanese.
As long as we understand that nazism has nothing whatsoever to do with National Socialism.
jews defeated it via their Allied proxies, and so of course took the next step, by creating NATO and the UN, and all the other supranational bodies, which of course are designed to first subvert all power, before finally delivering it all into their hands.
Nazism was simply a derivative of the Western ethnic supremacism and genocides of the previous centuries. It wasn't special, it just genocided Europeans instead of Amerindians, Africans, Indians, Indonesians etc. Scrape the surface of Western "Liberalism" and you will find fascism underneath.
As you imply, dealing with the aftermath of conflict is always far more difficult than dealing with war itself - and even that isn't easy.
Some sort of mass reconstructional effort at extremely favourable terms, would be needed to keep the everyday Ukrainian onside, and compliant with a new Russian jurisdiction.
Take a look at the history of Western Ukraine (=Galicia) and then rewrite your proposal again. The Russian leadership is extremly well eductated, they will not include this western part into Russia.
The desire of the Russian leadership is not only to incorporate those territories which wish to be incorporated, but also to ensure that those that don't, do not then get used by the west to provide a breeding ground for Russophobia and allow themselves to be used for the stationing of eastwards- pointing
weaponry.
Providing them with various economic incentives to remain nationalistic if they wish, but not Russophobic, is therefore the sensible course for Russia to pursue.
There is no way Russia would or could assimilate the whole of Ukraine.
If they tried, the CIA would have half a million people available to recruit.
Absorbing the regions where ethnic Russians are a clear majority makes perfect sense and will probably be done. Where the division is about 50-50 would be unwise. Absorbing the western part where most of the people are dyed-in-the-wool Ukrainian nationalists would be stupid. Putin knows that, and is not stupid, so will not do it.
Russia does not want the whole of Ukraine back. It simply wants to protect its ethnic Russians in the Eastern Oblasts and to prevent Ukraine stationing NATO nuclear weapons on its soil.
None of this would have been an issue had Putin done his job in 2022, the years prior, and after that
1) Not allowing Ukraine to be Banderized and taken over by the West. Putin was in the KGB, then head of the FSB for a bit, etc. Surely it was not a secret to him what a threat the Banderites were after the NKVD spent a decade with tens of thousands of victims subduing them back in the 1940s and early 1950s.
2) Not allowing the Maidan to happen in the first place. It's not as if there was no warning - there had already been the Orange revolution a decade earlier
3) Reversing the Maidan immediately with a massive invasion while the AFU was nearly nonexistent as a force
4) Not allowing Ukraine to be militarized to North Korea levels in the 8 years since.
5) The second-to-last chance to stop it -- going in properly in 2022 and eliminating the regime altogether instead of bluffing with a token symbolic force and looking once again for some kind of a deal where there is none to be had.
6) The last chance to stop it -- after the failure of the first months of 2022, mobilizing fully immediately and finally doing what had to be done.
None of that was done.
But the only real objective of the war was to stop NATO from situating nukes in Ukraine. Not to preserve Russians in Ukraine from being genocided, not to stop the resurgence of Nazism, all of that the Kremlin was more than willing to accept. The only real red line were the nukes, because then the West would have been able to use the nuclear gun pointed at the Kremlin's temple to extort the Russian oligarchy into handing over much of its control over Russia's resources directly to the West.
However, because in the end nothing was done to seriously solve the Ukrainian problem, then what was anyone expecting to happen but nukes eventually being placed in Ukraine regardless of NATO membership?
In fact, it is quite likely they have been there for a while now, it's just not acknowledge.
Great job by Mr. Putin as usual - decisively solving the problems of the Russian state in favor of the country and the Russian people...
Because Russian elites were willing to break up the USSR in order to transform political power into direct ownership (for themselves, of course) and loot the immense riches of the country.
For those same reasons there was no effort made after 1991 to make sure Ukraine was not Banderized and captured by the West - it would have gone against the interests of the comprador oligarchy that has been in power in both countries since then.
So yeah, it is the fault of Russian elites. And Putin serves their interests, not the interests of Russian people.
In 2014, Putin was still locked in an existential struggle for control of Russia with the "Russian elites" that you mention, and the outcome was in no way certain. Those elites had enormous support and influence in the west, and most were dual-citizens with the full support of the State of Israel in their struggle against Putin.
There's only so much bandwidth to tackle any great problem. Putin did a good job threading the needle of a very complex tapestry.
Putin has been locked in a Jewish war against him since he first came to power, as soon as he turned on those same powers after being handed the reigns of state.
I'm NOT Kamala Harris and I approve of this message. One other benefit to Russia is the SMO proving that NATO is nothing more than a loud-mouthed money laundering operation for the MIC in the U$$$A. Ike continues to spin in his grave after his warning/message was so stupidly ignored re the MIC. But..as always...
Brilliant! Dead on… the SMO has proven the “west” sells a bunch of expensive AND poor quality toys… against a peer (and determined) adversary — all the wunderwaffen are systematically destroyed! At huge expense to the provider and buyer. And now the EUs military cupboards are bare: AMERICA to the rescue — to sell the NEWEST batch of wunderwaffen…and to force all EU vassals to pony up MORE money for military junk… you know, because of the threat of RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA (do I hear a Hilary Clinton echo?). The deep state and the MIC NEED Russia to give them an excuse to exist, expand and thrive! Watch a comedy — to break the tension — “The Man Who Knew Too Little”… unfortunately it was a mockumentary of the current situation. Just like Idiocracy is a mockumentary of current America.
It is sad. The level of violating basic logic, that you are doing.
Soviet communists almost destroyed Russia, they inherited one of the richest countries in the world and drove it into abyss.
So profound devastation of a nation that left nothing on which to try to rebuild. Gorbachev was scared to death of communism, he didn‘t know where he was going, he hadn‘t found a star in the skies that could guide him, but he knew he had to get out of communism if Russia is to survive.
And the rest is history.
You are wrong about Putin. Putin‘s decisions are against elites, and you are investing great effort not to see it, not to admit it.
Western oriented elites are at a loss with Putin, as Russia is independent.
Name one country that is not ruled by „comprador oligarchy“.
Except China, Vietnam that are governed by communist party that accomodates, accepts basic „comprador“ = capitalist beliefs
Accusing „comprador oligarchy“ of wishing good relationwith the west is OK, but it is illogical to put Putin who opposes the West in an existential battle on the same side.
All unfortunately true. But the view is worse if you stand back and look at the big picture. Virtually all countries are some variation of Ranchers (חוואים) farming the human population for power and shekels.
Putin was naive, as he admitted in his conversation with Tucker...but there is no chance that Ukraine has hidden any kind of nuclear weapons from Russian intelligence, or NATO...And even tactical nukes require maintenance, which would make them easily detectable....
Also, you clearly are not aware that Ukraine didn't even return all Soviet nuclear warheads that it was supposed to give up. It is not clear in what shape those are, of course - the thermonuclear ones expire rather quickly without maintenance, but the fission ones may still be OK.
I have noticed many times that Western people, even the most friendly and trying to learn more about Russia, do not understand Russia at all, and tell each other fairy tales about it, sometimes scaring each other like boyscouts at a night campfire, sometimes extolling Russia. GM very accurately describes the situation as seen from inside Russia. But then come the evil little Western trolls and call him morron. Lol.
No one is going to overthrow him. Let him finish the war, finish his term, and retire, covered in glory. Vladimir the Victor! But after him, Russia will need to be put in order, and this is impossible without a correct assessment of reality. And without people in power who care about Russia, and not about pleasing "our Western partners."
He reminds me so much of a twit in the comedy Brain Candy who works for a drug company and finally gets to present at a Board meeting. He proudly announces to the executive he has "Invented a drug that gives worms to exgirlfriends" . He is being lead out of the building moments later while complaining how nobody gets him and his invention.
I have no idea whether GM's conclusions are good, bad, or in-between, nor do I really care. But since the inception of this blog, the kind of responses you've repeatedly made to commenters, never address the issues they try to raise. You deliberately evade such hard work. Instead, your lazy contribution is to make snide personal remarks about the commenter. That tactic is as old as the ancient Greeks; it's called shooting the messenger. It's a logical fallacy. Try looking it up sometime, you might learn something, especially about useful interactive discussion. Until that happens, you should strongly consider keeping your yap shut.
Even if we imagine that Ukraine somehow retained nuclear weapons, it cannot use them because the launch codes (the notorious nuclear briefcase with the red button) have always been in Moscow. The Ukrainian president could not launch nuclear weapons either in 1992 or 2024. This is clearly written in this article. And why would Kyiv even need to store these missiles if it could have sold them profitably to Iran or North Korea back in the 90s?
An implosion style fission warhead relies on an electric charge to set off explosives shaped to concentrate a fissionable mass down to a very small, very dense core.
A neutron generator "initiator" is used to send a flow of neutrons into the core to start the chain reaction. Simple gun-type U-235 weapons "Little Boy" for instance, do not need an initiator, but are very wasteful of fissile mass. Plutonium weapons are considered to require it.
The initiators have a limited lifespan (a generalization - newer designs require less service and last longer) and are the part that limits the lifespan of an untouched fission warhead. Older designs were dependent on things like polonium with extremely short half-lives. Tritium is another material used, with a half-life of 12.3 years.
Multistage weapons (H-bombs) use a fission design to set off a much larger thermonuclear weapon. These weapons typically use lithium deuteride today. This, unlike tritium, is not radioactive. However, it is corrosive and explodes in contact with humidity/water.
All weapons, as you'll draw from this, require periodic servicing, if only for a power source and neutron generator. There are no real mysteries, as Putin said, in their construction. Any protective measures can be worked around by the competent. Some weapons will have additional components that require periodic testing, such as the switches (krytrons were common in the past).
If you don't service the weapons, there are big problems with them and you'd fear to open them up for some reasons that should follow from the brief discussion above.
I think that Ukraine's allies can give it tactical nuclear weapons at any time if they want to set off a nuclear explosion in Russia. And then say, as in the case of Nord Stream, that it was a Ukrainian nuclear bomb. Although, most likely, the explosion will be in Kharkov, so that the city does not fall into the hands of the Russians.
I don't think that dodge would work. Also, keep in mind that Russians will be able to quickly assay the material from the bomb after the explosion and be able to tell you with pretty good accuracy what the source of the plutonium is. That is where the response will be aimed.
There can be no Ukrainian nuke. CIA and MI6 exert such level of official and even deeper unofficial control over Ukrainian secret services, if anything nuclear ever appears in Ukrainian grand finale, it is with their knowledge and support.
If something happens it will be before definite defeat that will bring Russia across Dnieper, and in control of Harkov, Odesa, Kiev
Definitely no attacks on Russia, possible candidates are assets, cities, regions states that might fall under Russian control; Harkov, Baltic states,
Either the themonuclear expire fast OR the fission ones .... The fission is created by a thermonuclear event, therefore, you need to have a normal bomb as core and some hydrogen around. This core would expire (by the way, the hydrogen much faster).
Look, GM , how many times do we have to tell you , the only reason why Putin is doing it all wrong is because you never gave him your phone number so he can call you daily for military advice, he and his General staff. If you aren't going to get your number to him, stop whining on these boards.
As if readers would travel from overseas to Moscow to fight Putin. You would think that Western presidents do everything perfectly, and only Putin harms his country.
Listening to Putin speak, and contrasting it to Western politicians, his accuracy on many details is refreshing. On matters that are not to his advantage, even. I'd excuse his mistakes more readily. He appears to be actually thinking about this stuff.
I think it wasn't as simple as taking a strong arm approach at thebeginning and boom! problem solved. There were a few considerations which I think you have neglected to mention:
1. Timing - right around the Sochi Olympics. This is absolutely not a minor matter and in all likelihood Maidan was enacted specifically at the time Russia was engaged in hosting the Olympics (which were very important to the people). You may want to note also that the take-over of Crimea and the bloodless way in which it happened occurred right after the Olympics ended. Coincidence?
2. Russia was not in fact in the kind of position - militarily and politically - to blast Ukraine out of Donbass. I think people have a hard time accepting just how weakened Russian armed forces became post Yeltsin and this is not something that can be fixed in a week or five. The strategists at the kremlin correcly judged that post 2014 they needed to buy time for the coming confrontation. That, I believe is the reason they were willing to play the Minsk game, which we all knews was just that - a game. It wasn't just the france and Germany that played Minsk board game. Russia did as well.
3. In the meantime, as so-called negotiations in Minsk continued, Donbass militia were slowly strengthened and many rights were extended to the people of Donbass, like Russian pensions, passports and work permits. That said, I do think it was a major mistake on Russian FSB's part to take its eyes off the ball in Donbass which allowed the assassination of key figures like Motorolla, Givi and Zachranzenko. The cynic in me even thinks this might have been deliberate, assuming the plan was all along to somehow find a way to incorporate Novoroussiya into Russia. Stars like Givi could be a problem in such an exercise.
4. Yes, I know the people of Donbass suffered greatly over that 8 year period. But I also think there was no way for Russia to come in more forcefully during that time. Russia had issues it needed to solve, both in terms of personnel and materiel as well as the endemic corruption in and around the Defense administration (anyone noticed how many people were fired and/or called to account over corruption just in the past year?).
5. Finally, the most important point perhaps - Russia, knowing full well what kind of sanctions the west would impose if they moved in militarily before '22, had to set the stage so as to have its own allies firmly in its corner. not just China either. The planning for BRICS expansion was ongoing, if perhaps not so visibly, and it was essential to give time for steps to be prepared to counter the fiancial, commercial and all around sanctions that Russia knew would be imposed should they make a move.
Taking all this into account, I honestly believe that Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe. That hand required full diplomatic, political and military commitment and the support of their own citizens in the face of what could have been a disaster. I'd especially commend people like Lavrov and Nibullina, who tirelessly moved the play forward, each in their own super-important areas. Shoigu as well, in his own way, even if he ends up having his own wings clipped for not bringing corruption under control in a timely manner. And many other Russian high level players, whose names we are only now coming to know, like the new Defense Minister.
Not to mention the super-important role played by Xi of China, always careful, always planning ahead, but seemingly a loyal friend. I think it took some major doing for Putin and Xi to forge the close relationship and trust they now seem to have despite a long history of enmity and distrust. Some day, when the dust settles, I believe history will recognize the achievement that this rapproachment between historical adversaries beset by centuries of mutual suspicion represented. Some day.
All in all, it's not as easy to run a major country under high conflict situations facing an implacable hegmon as it is to look in the rear view mirror and rehash things of which we - keybpard warriors that we all are - never had full visibility.
What was more important? The stupid Olympics or preventing the existential threat that a Nazi/Western takeover of Ukraine represents? Weren't priorities perhaps misplaced a bit here?
>2. Russia was not in fact in the kind of position - militarily and politically - to blast Ukraine out of Donbass. I think people have a hard time accepting just how weakened Russian armed forces became post Yeltsin and this is not something that can be fixed in a week or five. The strategists at the kremlin correcly judged that post 2014 they needed to buy time for the coming confrontation.
First, the fact remains the AFU was in a much worse *relative* position to Russia back then. When they fought directly in the Donbass, Russia dominated them totally. Not the case right now.
Second, Putin did not in fact spend the next eight years preparing for war. The military budget went up a bit in 2015-16, but that was because of Syria, then it promptly went back to what it had been before, and remained there until the SMO, There was no preparation of the ground forces whatsoever.
Third, the opportunities that did exist even as things stood to secure territory in the Donbass back then were blocked by the Kremlin. Mariupol ended up destroyed precisely because of such a veto from Moscow -- the DPR forces had it on a plate in 2014-15, were ordered to stay out, and what happened in the end? Which had further negative ramifications - had the Russian army not wasted so much time with Mariupol in early 2022, it might have gone a lot further north and west, and many of the bloody battles of the last two years might have been avoided. Those were the most competent units too, under Mordvichev.
And you know why Mariupol wasn't taken? Because back in 2014 Rinat Akhmetov pulled some strings to secure the port, which otherwise would have been under sanctions, and with it all his coal and steel exports. For the same reason, Avdeevka was not taken for two years - the AKHZ belonged to Metinvest and was to be spared if possible. This sort of thing - Putin caring about the oligarchs first, often not even just the Russian ones, but the Ukrainian oligarchs too - is everywhere in the history of the war, and the direct and indirect death toll from it runs well into the six figures on both sides so far.
But this is something that westoids have a hard time comprehending, even if they think they are on Russia's side...
>3. In the meantime, as so-called negotiations in Minsk continued, Donbass militia were slowly strengthened and many rights were extended to the people of Donbass, like Russian pensions, passports and work permits. That said, I do think it was a major mistake on Russian FSB's part to take its eyes off the ball in Donbass which allowed the assassination of key figures like Motorolla, Givi and Zachranzenko. The cynic in me even thinks this might have been deliberate, assuming the plan was all along to somehow find a way to incorporate Novoroussiya into Russia. Stars like Givi could be a problem in such an exercise.
Notice the names of the DPR and the LPR? "People's republics". Which smells too much of communism, and that is a mortal sin in the eyes of the Kremlin. Is it any wonder they were not supported properly?
>4. Yes, I know the people of Donbass suffered greatly over that 8 year period. But I also think there was no way for Russia to come in more forcefully during that time.
First, yes, there was a way. There wasn't a will.
Second, was there an alternative? Does anyone seriously suggest that it would have been harder for Russia to get to the Polish border in 2014 than it is now in 2024?
>Taking all this into account, I honestly believe that Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe.
This is laughable. Putin has "masterfully" maneuvered Russian into being reduced to the same kind of semi-failed state that is Syria, i.e. everyone can bomb it at will, and there will be no response.
That is so far the only tangible result of the SMO. Has any of the objectives been achieved?
Demilitarization of Ukraine? It's more militarized and with greater capabilities than ever.
Denazification? It is more naizifed than ever.
NATO? It is not an official member, but it has been effectively NATO fighting Russia there for quite some time now.
Meanwhile strikes into Russia proper with NATO weapons are now a daily occurrence. Plus an outright NATO invasion into pre-war Russia too.
So progress on the objectives is negative. Deeply into the negative in fact.
many of your points were made over time by the so-called "sixth column" in Russia, otherwise known by some as the "hooray patriots". The Saker (who I miss) used to have fun poking at their claims. I won't try since you seem quite firm in your convictions.
So you are a supporter of sodomites. Interesting. I have always suspected a homo and his supporter have no daylight between them. The only difference being the latter hasn't been fucked up the arse, but secretly desires it.
"People's republics".Which smells too much of communism, and that is a mortal sin in the eyes of the Kremlin." Indeed. The Kremlin hates these names of these republics so much that it has kept them to this day, and did not rename them when they were included in the Constitution, when it was legally possible to do so. The liberated cities of Donbass are getting their Soviet names back. The Moscow metro is named after Lenin, and Lenin himself lies in the Mausoleum. The Kremlin hates communism as much as Kyiv does.
Btw the name "People's republic" was chosen by someone in the Kremlin in order to play on old patriotic Soviet feelings. I don't think the name was an "organic" occurrence.
Not masterful played but as best as they could play. In hindsight one can argue over a lot but we dont know the whole picture and exactly how strong or weak the participants where. I am sure they did not know for themselves. Neither side. War is a development not a pre-written formula.
Yeeeeeaaaaah right... I actually think your thought process is, to put it nicely, f.cked up.
In comparison to the West, which is now a hodge podge of failed states, look up the real inflation rates across Western nations, not the fake ones, look up economic growth of Germany, UK, the US, Russia is doing great and Putin is surely crying, crying of laughter of how stupid our Western Elites are.
If you recall, Illovaisk and Debaltsevoe happened where Ukrainian troops were surrounded and hammered by DPR men. In fact they had almost entered Marioupol but then stopped due to Akhmetov's business interests.
In addition, plans for the formation of the KNR and ONR were abandoned and the cities were left to Avakov's goons, even though in the latter weapons were ready to go and people were just waiting on the order and that the Russians would come. Even as late as 2016 it was still possible, as there were still many flowers brought to the Trade Union building in Odessa. Instead Putin chose 8 years of waffling with Minsk 1 and 2.
It seems there was no information preparation of the population of Ukraine to counteract Ukrainian propaganda that has been ramping up in Ukraine since 2014. Indeed, Russian intelligence thought the situation and support would be identical to what it was in 2014 and before, which is part of the reason why they went in with such a small force. They thought it would be Crimea all over again, and the Ukrainian soldiers would surrender and join their side.
It was a race with time. And a learning curve. And with hindsight everything looks like it could have been done better.
It would have been better for everyone if war could have been avoided.
Intelligent and wise knew in 2014 that war cannot be avoided. But in 2024 even dumb, even naive, even less well informed know with certainty that there was no other way for Russia.
Spot on! ” Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe.”. It is always easy to look in the mirror and Russia has done what they could.
Murmurings are already being heard in the corridors of the Kremlin to facilitate a soft takeover of all power by yourself.
I think your points are very valid, but hindsight is always 20:20, and I'm sure all the points you put forward were considered, and for some reason, rejected.
Putin seems to have favoured the Roman adage "Festina lente," and thought that an amicable arrangement could be arrived at, with what are effectively, the slavering attack dogs of the west.
As to the "nukes in Ukraine" point you make, re-read what was said about the US' inability to make the cores needed to expand the arsenal.
No matter how much I communicated with Americans, they think they know better. About everything, not only about the States, but also about Russia. And for myself, I still haven't found an answer - why should I try to convince them otherwise.
Some of us do know better about everything. But it's also true that most Americans have opinions and beliefs that were installed by comprehensive propaganda programs since birth. Beliefs like "it's normal to be obese", "infinite growth leads to prosperity", "Russia is our enemy", and "the parasites are our greatest ally".
Wrong, shortsighted, lacking strategic isight or to be more precise too concentrated on NovoRossia, formerly Eastern Ukraine. Putin as a leader of Russia has the duty not to enter wars that could be lost.
All that seems possible today would be impossible if Russia has not been able to survive sanctions.
War on battlefield is just the visible tip of the iceberg.
Not to repeat in detail: Putin had to prepare economy, army, establish real trust with Chinese leader, organize BRICS….
Just to give an idea;
wouldn‘t it have been smarter for Napoleon not to attack Russia?
wouldn‘t it have been smarter for Kaiser Wilhelm not to attack Russia ?5
for A.H too in 1941?
Yet they all decided to attack …
and Kaiser‘s Germany succeeded in instilling the virus of bolshevism and destroying Russian state and society by transporting Lenin in sealed railwaycar across half Europe and releasing him in Finland.
Putin‘s main achievement lies in simultaneously successfully discouraging US and Europeans from entering a real war with Russia, and making Russian society and state significantly more immune to foreign interference,
by relying on Russian qualities, virtues, strengths and trusted allies.
Racial slurs of any kind are not allowed here, against any race or religion, for the sake of upkeeping a semblance of decorum and hospitable conversation space. Given the severity of what you wrote, I'm forced to give you a moderate-length ban.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jaikobaayaan/p/36d?r=4mimn6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The AA, the Houthis, and West Point
For once a more or less accurate assessment of the impact and the strength of the AA from the kernal of the US military machine
As the toughest and least amenable and most extremely well defended & in general militarily impervious to US military intervention
One of the very few westie authors to note the significance of the AA set up in Irak
Barring one or two bended knees to ideological icons such as Iran backed, and maybe RF supported
Which help the authors lead into a startling but inaccurate conclusion that it would be easier for the US to shut down Iran so to deprive the AA of power
The truth is that insurgent groups as dedicated as the AA have an aversion of outside control which matches their irredentist ideology and ensures that they are beholden to no one
The Russians know one when they see one, as do the North Koreans
https://ctc.westpoint.edu/a-draw-is-a-win-the-houthis-after-one-year-of-war/
What is AA?
Read the link
Ansar Allah.
Thank you for this.
Yemen are the fly in the ointment to the grand plan. It could be argued that their intervention has totally fucked the whole thing for USUK. Imagine if they weren't involved.
Exactly - thank you for this - and I'd say they were in fact invincible or the closest one can imagine to that, there's a lot more they can do even, single handed stalemate
Even the North Koreans, no fools at going their own way, do not have this degree of autonomy, although they can play the same ish role in east Asia
So, for all practical purposes, and unless NATO steps in, Russia commands the destiny of Ukraine.
But, after all the dust settles, what will Ukraine look like?
I think Russia should command all of what was formerly Ukraine and rename it "Western Russia". That way the Western media could spin it as "Boy, we sure kicked those Russian asses in Western Russia". Ukraine was a failed experiment best forgotten and re-birthed.
Next, I think Russia should allow for a salient 25km by 150km inland (Keep your friends close and your possible enemies closer) along its westernmost part of New Russia, with its own autonomy similar to that of Hong Kong in China. It's the point from which Russia does business with Western Europe. Sanctions or not, Russia holds the European energy lifeline it needs to function as a society. Some Western countries are likely to break away from US's diminishing global hegemon as a last desperate measure to restore their economies. Russia tells the world, "We are open for business". (profit maximization)
Upon taking over, Russia should allow the right to citizenship of Western Russia over the conquered and liberated land or a free ticket to a country that will take them. Of course, basic citizen screening applies requiring certain conditions to qualify. (weed out the malfeasants)
And last, surrender means the enemy is not to touch or damage their weapons as they are now Russian property with applicable property laws and legal punishment for offenders. Those weapons will be trophies and some re-purposed.
Any other ideas?
I think Russia's failure to take Ukraine at the most opportune time would result in a strategic defeat because it would fail to eliminate the threat long term. What would NATO do in Russia's place? They'd take over the whole country a la Desert Storm, man. Shock and Awe those Ruskins to surrender. "Bombs away, pilot", "Roger that, Fallen Eagle".
Russia seems to have incrementally increased the pressure, these threats of escalation provide ample reason for Russia to turn it up even faster. The Nazi presence so obvious to many of us should have the whole NATO alliance hanging it's head in shame. We pay you for defense and you go Fascist on us!
I think we know from our experience of this organization over many years and in many theatres that its purpose has never been defensive.
You use the word "nazi," and the clear-headed amongst us realize that this term is double-speak for "jewish," as all the main players both in the west and in Ukraine itself are of this ethnicity.
The fact that they cloak themselves in the honourable symbols of the Third Reich is simply demonstrative of their ability to successfully gaslight those who observe their ongoing shenanigans
Oh FFS! No they aren't, some of them are zionists, American Caesar's proxies du jour.
As I've aid, I'm an atheist, I have no truck with superstitious mumbo jumbo and none for superstitious bigotry.
"Superstitious bigotry"?
It doesn't really matter what you believe.
It's what the protagonists believe that's important, and they definitely cloak themselves at least partly in religious ideas.
Stop with the nonstop Jew thing. We get it but you don't need to spam about it 24/7 otherwise it begins to look like a discrediting operation. Most forums have rules to stay 'relatively' on topic anyway, and though I allow people to go off topic, that crosses a line when the "off topic" discussion is spammed so numerously that it begins overtaking the "on topic" one in volume.
Going to start removing anti-Semitic comments then?
Zionists want to label push back againist them as anti Semitic. So people coming into post anti Semitic posts help Zionists out.
To me it is irrelevant the title a psychopath hides behind. It seems likely that Jewish people are probably, by the numbers, among the smartest people on the planet.
However they have been hijacked and used by psychopaths with an evil agenda. These psychos will wear any uniform at hand to perpetuate their agenda.
They have infiltrated every single institution in the world. They are insidious. According to Robert Hare they make up between 4-6% of any given population.
So there are way more psychopaths than Jews! Those who shout it is all the Jews fault are likely psychos.
Yet more haSSbara fatuity, go to the back of the class.
No they haven't, Jews are the opposite of zionists.
I never equate Jews with Zionists!
" Jewish people are probably, by the numbers, among the smartest people on the planet. "
In you onion then, what group of people are among some of the dumbest on this planet ? You cant have one without the other.
Thanks Deplorable. I'll bite. Anyone who forms core beliefs from watching, tv, film or lots of video. So yes, some of my beliefs are dumb as sometimes watch video. Occasionally glimpse tv, it always shocks me. Rarely 'get' references from film.
Least favorite core belief. It's all Putin's fault. Replace with? Psychos rule the world.
Oh boy; there's a lot of competition for the dumbest. Then again, it depends on the type of intelligence. Trump is average in intellectual intelligence but he could hustle a physicist with a 160 IQ.
If Jewish people are the smartest (according to you), why would they allow themselves to be hijacked by psychopaths. To me it looks very stupid
Among the smartest if you want an exact quote. Turns out psychos are very adept at manipulating all people. They are impeccable liars. Hare was asked where he would look to research psychopathic behaviors if he lost access to prisoner populations. Wall St. I guess the contention I would make is Psychopaths are our source of grief more than any given ethnic group.
Zionist....
Stop with the anti-semitic nonsense, they are Zionists! Many Jews are not Zionist.
You anti semites can't stop
"The fact that they cloak themselves in the honourable symbols of the Third Reich is simply demonstrative of their ability to successfully gaslight those who observe their ongoing shenanigans"
Nazi confirmed, have screen capped fur proof.
This is a warning, stop the endless race-baiting and attacking of members. There are MANY other forums on the internet where you'll be welcomed to post 24/7 on this topic. But these posts are off-topic and hostile/antagonistic and will now be removed in force.
I'm assuming it's "Greenberg "
Am I right?
Tim please don't put words in my mouth or include me in your rants as a willing participant. Have no desire to understand what would make the symbols "honorable" in your world.
Wait what? this pro nazi comment stays up, but my pushback comments get removed.
Had you read my comments, you would have noticed that I never said anything supportive of "nazis," rather, I was supportive of National Socialists, and the two terms are antithetical.
I think you miss the point that NATO was birthed from Nazism. Do some research on Operation Gladio, or operation Paperclip. Later on Operation Aerodynamic continues the same modus operandi. And it wasn't only Nazism. Don't forget the US moved almost the entire Unit 731 from China to the US after the defeat of the Imperial Japanese.
As long as we understand that nazism has nothing whatsoever to do with National Socialism.
jews defeated it via their Allied proxies, and so of course took the next step, by creating NATO and the UN, and all the other supranational bodies, which of course are designed to first subvert all power, before finally delivering it all into their hands.
Take your meds nazi
After you take your Zyklon B.
Awesome sir !
Now, now!
There's only one tribe in the world with "nazi" in their name.
It's sad to see Simplicius tolerating the tribe invasion of his comment section.
Nazism was simply a derivative of the Western ethnic supremacism and genocides of the previous centuries. It wasn't special, it just genocided Europeans instead of Amerindians, Africans, Indians, Indonesians etc. Scrape the surface of Western "Liberalism" and you will find fascism underneath.
IOW, as we know all genocides were of jewish origin, then nazism was just the same thing re branded.
They're still at it today, ICYMI.
abcdefg I am only too familiar with Nazi ideology imbedded in US regulators.
My advice to 'them'? Stop pretending you are not supporting Fascism, stop calling it Democracy, it isn't and hasn't been.
The more lies you get caught in the more ridiculous your calls to obedience become.
We would fight for Democracy, not Nazism! Stop insisting we should!
As you imply, dealing with the aftermath of conflict is always far more difficult than dealing with war itself - and even that isn't easy.
Some sort of mass reconstructional effort at extremely favourable terms, would be needed to keep the everyday Ukrainian onside, and compliant with a new Russian jurisdiction.
Take a look at the history of Western Ukraine (=Galicia) and then rewrite your proposal again. The Russian leadership is extremly well eductated, they will not include this western part into Russia.
The desire of the Russian leadership is not only to incorporate those territories which wish to be incorporated, but also to ensure that those that don't, do not then get used by the west to provide a breeding ground for Russophobia and allow themselves to be used for the stationing of eastwards- pointing
weaponry.
Providing them with various economic incentives to remain nationalistic if they wish, but not Russophobic, is therefore the sensible course for Russia to pursue.
There is no way Russia would or could assimilate the whole of Ukraine.
If they tried, the CIA would have half a million people available to recruit.
Absorbing the regions where ethnic Russians are a clear majority makes perfect sense and will probably be done. Where the division is about 50-50 would be unwise. Absorbing the western part where most of the people are dyed-in-the-wool Ukrainian nationalists would be stupid. Putin knows that, and is not stupid, so will not do it.
Russia does not want the whole of Ukraine back. It simply wants to protect its ethnic Russians in the Eastern Oblasts and to prevent Ukraine stationing NATO nuclear weapons on its soil.
If you look at successful insurgencies on recent decades, the one thing they all have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen was 19.
The median age in Ukrane was over 40, and that from before the war. Ukraine is not ripe for insurgency.
None of this would have been an issue had Putin done his job in 2022, the years prior, and after that
1) Not allowing Ukraine to be Banderized and taken over by the West. Putin was in the KGB, then head of the FSB for a bit, etc. Surely it was not a secret to him what a threat the Banderites were after the NKVD spent a decade with tens of thousands of victims subduing them back in the 1940s and early 1950s.
2) Not allowing the Maidan to happen in the first place. It's not as if there was no warning - there had already been the Orange revolution a decade earlier
3) Reversing the Maidan immediately with a massive invasion while the AFU was nearly nonexistent as a force
4) Not allowing Ukraine to be militarized to North Korea levels in the 8 years since.
5) The second-to-last chance to stop it -- going in properly in 2022 and eliminating the regime altogether instead of bluffing with a token symbolic force and looking once again for some kind of a deal where there is none to be had.
6) The last chance to stop it -- after the failure of the first months of 2022, mobilizing fully immediately and finally doing what had to be done.
None of that was done.
But the only real objective of the war was to stop NATO from situating nukes in Ukraine. Not to preserve Russians in Ukraine from being genocided, not to stop the resurgence of Nazism, all of that the Kremlin was more than willing to accept. The only real red line were the nukes, because then the West would have been able to use the nuclear gun pointed at the Kremlin's temple to extort the Russian oligarchy into handing over much of its control over Russia's resources directly to the West.
However, because in the end nothing was done to seriously solve the Ukrainian problem, then what was anyone expecting to happen but nukes eventually being placed in Ukraine regardless of NATO membership?
In fact, it is quite likely they have been there for a while now, it's just not acknowledge.
Great job by Mr. Putin as usual - decisively solving the problems of the Russian state in favor of the country and the Russian people...
Yeah right. It's all Russia's fault.
Not "Russia"'s fault.
The Russian elites' fault.
And yes, it is their fault.
Why does Ukraine exist in the first place?
Because Russian elites were willing to break up the USSR in order to transform political power into direct ownership (for themselves, of course) and loot the immense riches of the country.
For those same reasons there was no effort made after 1991 to make sure Ukraine was not Banderized and captured by the West - it would have gone against the interests of the comprador oligarchy that has been in power in both countries since then.
So yeah, it is the fault of Russian elites. And Putin serves their interests, not the interests of Russian people.
Have you tried pounding on his desk ? Try that. See if you can get his attention.
Do trolls know when they are getting trolled? Personally I think they're too dumb... might even be algo-driven.
@Charlie M
GM must use a SHOE while pounding on desk, traditional Russian technique.
In 2014, Putin was still locked in an existential struggle for control of Russia with the "Russian elites" that you mention, and the outcome was in no way certain. Those elites had enormous support and influence in the west, and most were dual-citizens with the full support of the State of Israel in their struggle against Putin.
There's only so much bandwidth to tackle any great problem. Putin did a good job threading the needle of a very complex tapestry.
Putin has been locked in a Jewish war against him since he first came to power, as soon as he turned on those same powers after being handed the reigns of state.
I'm NOT Kamala Harris and I approve of this message. One other benefit to Russia is the SMO proving that NATO is nothing more than a loud-mouthed money laundering operation for the MIC in the U$$$A. Ike continues to spin in his grave after his warning/message was so stupidly ignored re the MIC. But..as always...
Mo' money...mo' money...mo' money...
Brilliant! Dead on… the SMO has proven the “west” sells a bunch of expensive AND poor quality toys… against a peer (and determined) adversary — all the wunderwaffen are systematically destroyed! At huge expense to the provider and buyer. And now the EUs military cupboards are bare: AMERICA to the rescue — to sell the NEWEST batch of wunderwaffen…and to force all EU vassals to pony up MORE money for military junk… you know, because of the threat of RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA (do I hear a Hilary Clinton echo?). The deep state and the MIC NEED Russia to give them an excuse to exist, expand and thrive! Watch a comedy — to break the tension — “The Man Who Knew Too Little”… unfortunately it was a mockumentary of the current situation. Just like Idiocracy is a mockumentary of current America.
It is sad. The level of violating basic logic, that you are doing.
Soviet communists almost destroyed Russia, they inherited one of the richest countries in the world and drove it into abyss.
So profound devastation of a nation that left nothing on which to try to rebuild. Gorbachev was scared to death of communism, he didn‘t know where he was going, he hadn‘t found a star in the skies that could guide him, but he knew he had to get out of communism if Russia is to survive.
And the rest is history.
You are wrong about Putin. Putin‘s decisions are against elites, and you are investing great effort not to see it, not to admit it.
Western oriented elites are at a loss with Putin, as Russia is independent.
No. Your picture of the world is literally turned upside down.
Name one country that is not ruled by „comprador oligarchy“.
Except China, Vietnam that are governed by communist party that accomodates, accepts basic „comprador“ = capitalist beliefs
Accusing „comprador oligarchy“ of wishing good relationwith the west is OK, but it is illogical to put Putin who opposes the West in an existential battle on the same side.
Illogical if one stays inside your own world.
All unfortunately true. But the view is worse if you stand back and look at the big picture. Virtually all countries are some variation of Ranchers (חוואים) farming the human population for power and shekels.
Putin was naive, as he admitted in his conversation with Tucker...but there is no chance that Ukraine has hidden any kind of nuclear weapons from Russian intelligence, or NATO...And even tactical nukes require maintenance, which would make them easily detectable....
"Easily detectable" how?
Also, you clearly are not aware that Ukraine didn't even return all Soviet nuclear warheads that it was supposed to give up. It is not clear in what shape those are, of course - the thermonuclear ones expire rather quickly without maintenance, but the fission ones may still be OK.
General Moron returns with his usual low IQ opinions. I have to admit he is good for a laugh.
I have noticed many times that Western people, even the most friendly and trying to learn more about Russia, do not understand Russia at all, and tell each other fairy tales about it, sometimes scaring each other like boyscouts at a night campfire, sometimes extolling Russia. GM very accurately describes the situation as seen from inside Russia. But then come the evil little Western trolls and call him morron. Lol.
Not a moron so much as a western asset trying to undermine Putin knowing that would lead to a possible Russian defeat...and a sock puppet.
No one is going to overthrow him. Let him finish the war, finish his term, and retire, covered in glory. Vladimir the Victor! But after him, Russia will need to be put in order, and this is impossible without a correct assessment of reality. And without people in power who care about Russia, and not about pleasing "our Western partners."
He reminds me so much of a twit in the comedy Brain Candy who works for a drug company and finally gets to present at a Board meeting. He proudly announces to the executive he has "Invented a drug that gives worms to exgirlfriends" . He is being lead out of the building moments later while complaining how nobody gets him and his invention.
I have no idea whether GM's conclusions are good, bad, or in-between, nor do I really care. But since the inception of this blog, the kind of responses you've repeatedly made to commenters, never address the issues they try to raise. You deliberately evade such hard work. Instead, your lazy contribution is to make snide personal remarks about the commenter. That tactic is as old as the ancient Greeks; it's called shooting the messenger. It's a logical fallacy. Try looking it up sometime, you might learn something, especially about useful interactive discussion. Until that happens, you should strongly consider keeping your yap shut.
If you don't know if his bullshit is good or bad that shows you too are a clueless fuckwit.
BTW I don't address the "issues" of trolls and morons, as there are no issues they bring up. Just misinformation and misguided opinions.
So you should consider eating a dick.
Ah, very good, you've just provided even more proof that I'm correct.
Have a nice day, buh-bye!
hahahaha! Great sense of humor...
Even if we imagine that Ukraine somehow retained nuclear weapons, it cannot use them because the launch codes (the notorious nuclear briefcase with the red button) have always been in Moscow. The Ukrainian president could not launch nuclear weapons either in 1992 or 2024. This is clearly written in this article. And why would Kyiv even need to store these missiles if it could have sold them profitably to Iran or North Korea back in the 90s?
Strategic nuclear weapons - ICBMs and SLBMs - have launch codes.
Tactical nukes don't.
Do you seriously think the Davy Crockett was intended to be armed remotely by the president with the codes?
There will obviously be protective systems in place to prevent inadvertent or malicious launch of these devices.
An implosion style fission warhead relies on an electric charge to set off explosives shaped to concentrate a fissionable mass down to a very small, very dense core.
A neutron generator "initiator" is used to send a flow of neutrons into the core to start the chain reaction. Simple gun-type U-235 weapons "Little Boy" for instance, do not need an initiator, but are very wasteful of fissile mass. Plutonium weapons are considered to require it.
The initiators have a limited lifespan (a generalization - newer designs require less service and last longer) and are the part that limits the lifespan of an untouched fission warhead. Older designs were dependent on things like polonium with extremely short half-lives. Tritium is another material used, with a half-life of 12.3 years.
Multistage weapons (H-bombs) use a fission design to set off a much larger thermonuclear weapon. These weapons typically use lithium deuteride today. This, unlike tritium, is not radioactive. However, it is corrosive and explodes in contact with humidity/water.
All weapons, as you'll draw from this, require periodic servicing, if only for a power source and neutron generator. There are no real mysteries, as Putin said, in their construction. Any protective measures can be worked around by the competent. Some weapons will have additional components that require periodic testing, such as the switches (krytrons were common in the past).
If you don't service the weapons, there are big problems with them and you'd fear to open them up for some reasons that should follow from the brief discussion above.
I think that Ukraine's allies can give it tactical nuclear weapons at any time if they want to set off a nuclear explosion in Russia. And then say, as in the case of Nord Stream, that it was a Ukrainian nuclear bomb. Although, most likely, the explosion will be in Kharkov, so that the city does not fall into the hands of the Russians.
I don't think that dodge would work. Also, keep in mind that Russians will be able to quickly assay the material from the bomb after the explosion and be able to tell you with pretty good accuracy what the source of the plutonium is. That is where the response will be aimed.
There can be no Ukrainian nuke. CIA and MI6 exert such level of official and even deeper unofficial control over Ukrainian secret services, if anything nuclear ever appears in Ukrainian grand finale, it is with their knowledge and support.
If something happens it will be before definite defeat that will bring Russia across Dnieper, and in control of Harkov, Odesa, Kiev
Definitely no attacks on Russia, possible candidates are assets, cities, regions states that might fall under Russian control; Harkov, Baltic states,
Even less clear is how those warheads can be used, without what was described as complete Russian control over their launch codes, etc.
Either the themonuclear expire fast OR the fission ones .... The fission is created by a thermonuclear event, therefore, you need to have a normal bomb as core and some hydrogen around. This core would expire (by the way, the hydrogen much faster).
@werner hillinger
You have that just about exactly backwards.
Look, GM , how many times do we have to tell you , the only reason why Putin is doing it all wrong is because you never gave him your phone number so he can call you daily for military advice, he and his General staff. If you aren't going to get your number to him, stop whining on these boards.
As if readers would travel from overseas to Moscow to fight Putin. You would think that Western presidents do everything perfectly, and only Putin harms his country.
Listening to Putin speak, and contrasting it to Western politicians, his accuracy on many details is refreshing. On matters that are not to his advantage, even. I'd excuse his mistakes more readily. He appears to be actually thinking about this stuff.
Russia will continue the war against NATO until victory. Putin said it right there in the article.
2014 was too early to start fighting NATO, hence they waited till 2022.
PS. Ukraine is just the vehicle (for both sides).
Putin....escalation management....it's a learning curve.
To your points:
I think it wasn't as simple as taking a strong arm approach at thebeginning and boom! problem solved. There were a few considerations which I think you have neglected to mention:
1. Timing - right around the Sochi Olympics. This is absolutely not a minor matter and in all likelihood Maidan was enacted specifically at the time Russia was engaged in hosting the Olympics (which were very important to the people). You may want to note also that the take-over of Crimea and the bloodless way in which it happened occurred right after the Olympics ended. Coincidence?
2. Russia was not in fact in the kind of position - militarily and politically - to blast Ukraine out of Donbass. I think people have a hard time accepting just how weakened Russian armed forces became post Yeltsin and this is not something that can be fixed in a week or five. The strategists at the kremlin correcly judged that post 2014 they needed to buy time for the coming confrontation. That, I believe is the reason they were willing to play the Minsk game, which we all knews was just that - a game. It wasn't just the france and Germany that played Minsk board game. Russia did as well.
3. In the meantime, as so-called negotiations in Minsk continued, Donbass militia were slowly strengthened and many rights were extended to the people of Donbass, like Russian pensions, passports and work permits. That said, I do think it was a major mistake on Russian FSB's part to take its eyes off the ball in Donbass which allowed the assassination of key figures like Motorolla, Givi and Zachranzenko. The cynic in me even thinks this might have been deliberate, assuming the plan was all along to somehow find a way to incorporate Novoroussiya into Russia. Stars like Givi could be a problem in such an exercise.
4. Yes, I know the people of Donbass suffered greatly over that 8 year period. But I also think there was no way for Russia to come in more forcefully during that time. Russia had issues it needed to solve, both in terms of personnel and materiel as well as the endemic corruption in and around the Defense administration (anyone noticed how many people were fired and/or called to account over corruption just in the past year?).
5. Finally, the most important point perhaps - Russia, knowing full well what kind of sanctions the west would impose if they moved in militarily before '22, had to set the stage so as to have its own allies firmly in its corner. not just China either. The planning for BRICS expansion was ongoing, if perhaps not so visibly, and it was essential to give time for steps to be prepared to counter the fiancial, commercial and all around sanctions that Russia knew would be imposed should they make a move.
Taking all this into account, I honestly believe that Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe. That hand required full diplomatic, political and military commitment and the support of their own citizens in the face of what could have been a disaster. I'd especially commend people like Lavrov and Nibullina, who tirelessly moved the play forward, each in their own super-important areas. Shoigu as well, in his own way, even if he ends up having his own wings clipped for not bringing corruption under control in a timely manner. And many other Russian high level players, whose names we are only now coming to know, like the new Defense Minister.
Not to mention the super-important role played by Xi of China, always careful, always planning ahead, but seemingly a loyal friend. I think it took some major doing for Putin and Xi to forge the close relationship and trust they now seem to have despite a long history of enmity and distrust. Some day, when the dust settles, I believe history will recognize the achievement that this rapproachment between historical adversaries beset by centuries of mutual suspicion represented. Some day.
All in all, it's not as easy to run a major country under high conflict situations facing an implacable hegmon as it is to look in the rear view mirror and rehash things of which we - keybpard warriors that we all are - never had full visibility.
>1. Timing - right around the Sochi Olympics.
What was more important? The stupid Olympics or preventing the existential threat that a Nazi/Western takeover of Ukraine represents? Weren't priorities perhaps misplaced a bit here?
>2. Russia was not in fact in the kind of position - militarily and politically - to blast Ukraine out of Donbass. I think people have a hard time accepting just how weakened Russian armed forces became post Yeltsin and this is not something that can be fixed in a week or five. The strategists at the kremlin correcly judged that post 2014 they needed to buy time for the coming confrontation.
First, the fact remains the AFU was in a much worse *relative* position to Russia back then. When they fought directly in the Donbass, Russia dominated them totally. Not the case right now.
Second, Putin did not in fact spend the next eight years preparing for war. The military budget went up a bit in 2015-16, but that was because of Syria, then it promptly went back to what it had been before, and remained there until the SMO, There was no preparation of the ground forces whatsoever.
Third, the opportunities that did exist even as things stood to secure territory in the Donbass back then were blocked by the Kremlin. Mariupol ended up destroyed precisely because of such a veto from Moscow -- the DPR forces had it on a plate in 2014-15, were ordered to stay out, and what happened in the end? Which had further negative ramifications - had the Russian army not wasted so much time with Mariupol in early 2022, it might have gone a lot further north and west, and many of the bloody battles of the last two years might have been avoided. Those were the most competent units too, under Mordvichev.
And you know why Mariupol wasn't taken? Because back in 2014 Rinat Akhmetov pulled some strings to secure the port, which otherwise would have been under sanctions, and with it all his coal and steel exports. For the same reason, Avdeevka was not taken for two years - the AKHZ belonged to Metinvest and was to be spared if possible. This sort of thing - Putin caring about the oligarchs first, often not even just the Russian ones, but the Ukrainian oligarchs too - is everywhere in the history of the war, and the direct and indirect death toll from it runs well into the six figures on both sides so far.
But this is something that westoids have a hard time comprehending, even if they think they are on Russia's side...
>3. In the meantime, as so-called negotiations in Minsk continued, Donbass militia were slowly strengthened and many rights were extended to the people of Donbass, like Russian pensions, passports and work permits. That said, I do think it was a major mistake on Russian FSB's part to take its eyes off the ball in Donbass which allowed the assassination of key figures like Motorolla, Givi and Zachranzenko. The cynic in me even thinks this might have been deliberate, assuming the plan was all along to somehow find a way to incorporate Novoroussiya into Russia. Stars like Givi could be a problem in such an exercise.
Notice the names of the DPR and the LPR? "People's republics". Which smells too much of communism, and that is a mortal sin in the eyes of the Kremlin. Is it any wonder they were not supported properly?
>4. Yes, I know the people of Donbass suffered greatly over that 8 year period. But I also think there was no way for Russia to come in more forcefully during that time.
First, yes, there was a way. There wasn't a will.
Second, was there an alternative? Does anyone seriously suggest that it would have been harder for Russia to get to the Polish border in 2014 than it is now in 2024?
>Taking all this into account, I honestly believe that Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe.
This is laughable. Putin has "masterfully" maneuvered Russian into being reduced to the same kind of semi-failed state that is Syria, i.e. everyone can bomb it at will, and there will be no response.
That is so far the only tangible result of the SMO. Has any of the objectives been achieved?
Demilitarization of Ukraine? It's more militarized and with greater capabilities than ever.
Denazification? It is more naizifed than ever.
NATO? It is not an official member, but it has been effectively NATO fighting Russia there for quite some time now.
Meanwhile strikes into Russia proper with NATO weapons are now a daily occurrence. Plus an outright NATO invasion into pre-war Russia too.
So progress on the objectives is negative. Deeply into the negative in fact.
"Masterfully" played my ass...
You sure you are not Strelkov in disguise?
many of your points were made over time by the so-called "sixth column" in Russia, otherwise known by some as the "hooray patriots". The Saker (who I miss) used to have fun poking at their claims. I won't try since you seem quite firm in your convictions.
Go back to what The Saker was writing back in early 2022 and compare to what actually happened since then
It should an eye opening exercise if done properly
I think this is written by a Marxist.
The Saker turned out to be totally incompetent.
I was glad he retired, I was fed up with his anti-gay bigotry and Goebbels-esque crap about Russia being the saviour of 'christendom'. Ouanqueur.
Missing The Saker… hope the deep state hasn’t taken him and his family out.
You can tune into Rachel at MSNBC to get real news <sarc>.
"anti-gay bigotry"
So you are a supporter of sodomites. Interesting. I have always suspected a homo and his supporter have no daylight between them. The only difference being the latter hasn't been fucked up the arse, but secretly desires it.
> I was fed up with his anti-gay bigotry
Well, now I belatedly like him more. Sexual degeneracy and perversion should be forcefully eradicated in all available ways.
Only looked at his stuff on occasion though. He seemed too full of himself, and so sensitive that mean words made him weep.
"People's republics".Which smells too much of communism, and that is a mortal sin in the eyes of the Kremlin." Indeed. The Kremlin hates these names of these republics so much that it has kept them to this day, and did not rename them when they were included in the Constitution, when it was legally possible to do so. The liberated cities of Donbass are getting their Soviet names back. The Moscow metro is named after Lenin, and Lenin himself lies in the Mausoleum. The Kremlin hates communism as much as Kyiv does.
Btw the name "People's republic" was chosen by someone in the Kremlin in order to play on old patriotic Soviet feelings. I don't think the name was an "organic" occurrence.
Not masterful played but as best as they could play. In hindsight one can argue over a lot but we dont know the whole picture and exactly how strong or weak the participants where. I am sure they did not know for themselves. Neither side. War is a development not a pre-written formula.
I absolutely agree with you.
I think that Putin and his inner circle still dream about being friends with "their partners" again, about ice cream in Toscana and shopping in Paris.
Russian elite suffers to lesser value complex.
Even if attacked with nuclear weapons, Russia would probably not retaliate.
It is how much they adore the west.
Yeeeeeaaaaah right... I actually think your thought process is, to put it nicely, f.cked up.
In comparison to the West, which is now a hodge podge of failed states, look up the real inflation rates across Western nations, not the fake ones, look up economic growth of Germany, UK, the US, Russia is doing great and Putin is surely crying, crying of laughter of how stupid our Western Elites are.
You are right GM! The Kremlin has committed IMHO 4 major failures:
first not rolling back the Maidan right after the coup happened and before the new power structure was established,
Second, failing to support the Donbas sufficiently during 2014-2022,
Third, invading Ukraine in 2022 with a half-ass force hoping to avoid a large war with a show of force,
Fourth, failing to mobilize in mass after the Istanbul charade.
A sober and eminently reasonable analysis.
If you recall, Illovaisk and Debaltsevoe happened where Ukrainian troops were surrounded and hammered by DPR men. In fact they had almost entered Marioupol but then stopped due to Akhmetov's business interests.
In addition, plans for the formation of the KNR and ONR were abandoned and the cities were left to Avakov's goons, even though in the latter weapons were ready to go and people were just waiting on the order and that the Russians would come. Even as late as 2016 it was still possible, as there were still many flowers brought to the Trade Union building in Odessa. Instead Putin chose 8 years of waffling with Minsk 1 and 2.
It seems there was no information preparation of the population of Ukraine to counteract Ukrainian propaganda that has been ramping up in Ukraine since 2014. Indeed, Russian intelligence thought the situation and support would be identical to what it was in 2014 and before, which is part of the reason why they went in with such a small force. They thought it would be Crimea all over again, and the Ukrainian soldiers would surrender and join their side.
Everything you said is exactly as it was.
But those are inconvenient facts for the narrative peddled by most here.
It was a race with time. And a learning curve. And with hindsight everything looks like it could have been done better.
It would have been better for everyone if war could have been avoided.
Intelligent and wise knew in 2014 that war cannot be avoided. But in 2024 even dumb, even naive, even less well informed know with certainty that there was no other way for Russia.
And that Ukraine will lose if it chooses war.
Spot on! ” Russia played masterfully a hand that was not as strong at the onset as some would like to believe.”. It is always easy to look in the mirror and Russia has done what they could.
Dunning-Kruger says hi.
In hindsight everyone can criticize. I challenge you to become president of Russia and do a better job. Not holding my breath.
Murmurings are already being heard in the corridors of the Kremlin to facilitate a soft takeover of all power by yourself.
I think your points are very valid, but hindsight is always 20:20, and I'm sure all the points you put forward were considered, and for some reason, rejected.
Putin seems to have favoured the Roman adage "Festina lente," and thought that an amicable arrangement could be arrived at, with what are effectively, the slavering attack dogs of the west.
As to the "nukes in Ukraine" point you make, re-read what was said about the US' inability to make the cores needed to expand the arsenal.
No matter how much I communicated with Americans, they think they know better. About everything, not only about the States, but also about Russia. And for myself, I still haven't found an answer - why should I try to convince them otherwise.
What? Are you suggesting Americans are both arrogant AND provincial!?
Should I answer you honestly or politely?
Some of us do know better about everything. But it's also true that most Americans have opinions and beliefs that were installed by comprehensive propaganda programs since birth. Beliefs like "it's normal to be obese", "infinite growth leads to prosperity", "Russia is our enemy", and "the parasites are our greatest ally".
Wrong, shortsighted, lacking strategic isight or to be more precise too concentrated on NovoRossia, formerly Eastern Ukraine. Putin as a leader of Russia has the duty not to enter wars that could be lost.
All that seems possible today would be impossible if Russia has not been able to survive sanctions.
War on battlefield is just the visible tip of the iceberg.
Not to repeat in detail: Putin had to prepare economy, army, establish real trust with Chinese leader, organize BRICS….
Just to give an idea;
wouldn‘t it have been smarter for Napoleon not to attack Russia?
wouldn‘t it have been smarter for Kaiser Wilhelm not to attack Russia ?5
for A.H too in 1941?
Yet they all decided to attack …
and Kaiser‘s Germany succeeded in instilling the virus of bolshevism and destroying Russian state and society by transporting Lenin in sealed railwaycar across half Europe and releasing him in Finland.
Putin‘s main achievement lies in simultaneously successfully discouraging US and Europeans from entering a real war with Russia, and making Russian society and state significantly more immune to foreign interference,
by relying on Russian qualities, virtues, strengths and trusted allies.