206 Comments
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Well...it does appear to be a full moon...

Expand full comment

It is very strange that Shoigu is Minister of Defense considering he has no training as a soldier and worked as МЧС (Ministry of Ergency Situations). Its high time he got removed and someone else like Prigozhin or Mizentsev put in his place.

Expand full comment

That great military mind Prigozhin... 😆

Expand full comment
author

Well, there are some people that had a good point when they said something along the lines of:

people are hypocrites. They claim that Russia's biggest deficiency is in its logistics/supply and yet Russia hires an economics/logistics master (Shoigu) who specializes in exactly this as the military head, and now they complain. It seems hypocritical because a guy with an economics master should be exactly the right man for the job for an army that reportedly suffers organizational problems in its logistics/equipment.

With that said, I think people pay undue attention to Shoigu. His position as "defense minister" is more of an administrative and organizational role. That means he's not leading the army or has anything to really do with the strategic aspect of the war. His position I would assume is something like the equivalent of 'secretary of defense' in the U.S., which is more of a spokesman for the military position rather than the actual general in charge of the operations.

In this case it would be Gerasimov who is reportedly the actual strategic head and supreme commander of the SMO.

Expand full comment

Correct. A Minister of Defense is essentially a politiciain, in Shoigu's case a politician that wears a military uniform.

BTW I had to reach for my dictionary again:

copacetic adjective informal•North American

adjective: copacetic; adjective: copasetic

in excellent order. "he said to tell you everything is copacetic"

Expand full comment

fairly old term fell from grace some time ago 70-80s. Come to think of it probably military term. I was USN 73-77

Expand full comment

⚡️Kadyrov asks Putin to send Chechen units to the Belgorod region

"In order to liquidate a group of bandits on Russian territory without consequences for the civilian population and infrastructure, special knowledge and training are required. This requires not only military experience, but also anti-terrorist experience. Chechen fighters who have already experience in clearing the republic of underground bandits in the forest and urban areas, as well as the experience of liberating almost four dozen settlements from the LDNR, including Mariupol, where they entered into battle with a enemy outnumbered.These are regiments and battalions of the National Guard, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and the police, in particular the Special Police Regiment named after the hero of Russia AA Kadyrov Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Chechen Republic, headed by Hero of Russia Commander Zamid Chalaev.

In total, the number of Chechen fighters in battalions and regiments of power and military structures exceeds 70,000 people. That's three armies! All units were trained at the Russian Special Forces University. Equipped with the latest technologies, trained, equipped with trouble-free weapons and ready to carry out any order from the Supreme Commander in order to protect our state and our citizens. It would be a good decision. Therefore, we are ready and waiting for the order!" - wrote the head of Chechnya.

Expand full comment

That would be a good approach and the Chechen's will do a good job putting those terrorists (mercenaries) down.

Expand full comment

I saw that this morning. I don't think these "legions" of terroristic creeps who sit around and listen to NSBM music and sell white power t shirts on the internet would fare too well against the Chechen forces, lol.

Expand full comment

Exactly. And Shoigu was a compromise candidate. The issues behind that compromise being required probably haven't gone away (though I don't understand exactly what they were). And Shoigu is relatively competent, reliable, and an ethnic minority (Tuvan). Russia is multi-cultural, it's an important part of the country's make-up. There's no "political correctness" or affirmative action or whatever like in the west. Having ethnic minorities in high level jobs that they're competent to do and earned relatively on merit benefits Putin and the country.

Expand full comment

Шойгу Is literally inBetween Герасимов and лавров

Expand full comment

Prigozhin as Min of Defence ??!!?? In the words of Col Douglas McGregor . . ." Have you lost your mind" What pray tell, military experience does Prigozhin have . . . ?? apart from prancing around in uniform pontificating about tactics. He's a CEO of Wagner, not a General !

ps This was accidently posted down below as a comment instead of a reply . . . . . "Sorry about that Chief"

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023

In most civilized countries, Defense Ministers are never career soldiers. As the Ministers of Health are not doctors. An Administrator is not an operative. Shoigu is not the Chief of Staff of Russia. And I'm not going to debate an obvious topic now. That's not the problem and it actually affects all Russian power. From Shoigu to Gerassimov and Putin! After all, who does PMC Wagner work for? Just for Prigozhin?

Expand full comment

I think that Prigozhin is subordinate only directly to Putin and is his tool for doing behind-the-scenes affairs and control other powers in Russian government.

Expand full comment

That's a myth. Shoigu and Gerassimov are much closer to Putin.

Expand full comment

Maybe, but Wagner definitely has some connection with Putin. Because they hire prisoners and offer them

a pardon. But only the president has the right to pardon prisoners.

Expand full comment

Also Putin is ex KGB agent (now it's FSB) and most Wagner commanders came from various Russian intelligence services (mostly from GRU)

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2023·edited Jun 8, 2023

Yes, the connection to the Special Forces of Military Intelligence (GRU) seems more than evident. Wagner is far from being a private military company (PMC) as many people think. It's more of an off the record or unconfirmed company. As a rule, the Intelligences have their own statutes, parallel in this case to the General Staff itself. But in terms of the State's politic Organigram, the Minister of Defense is one of the top three or five men in a nation. But I don't claim to be an expert on power politics or intelligence in Russia. Which is very complicated for a foreigner. However, there is not only one center of power in Russia.

Note that Putin himself is not the same man today as he was during the privatization years in Russia and the Ieltsin coup. Putin split from the KGB because, as a rule, the Intelligences always have a more nationalist character and Putin in 90s was a neoliberal who supported the private sector like Yeltsin. And your friend from St. Petersburg Anatoli Sobchak. Maybe many years in Germany. Only much later does the famous speech about the dissolution of the USSR! And I also don't think that today Putin is a true nationalist otherwise he would never make the Agreements with China or establish so many relationships with the global south and Russia was now a much more isolated nation.

Putin is at best a great patriot who has finally realized the fundamental role of the state in economy. In the case of Russia. Many reforms that are happening now under the pressure of economic sanctions should have already happened. But we also have to be fair and say that Russia just 30 years ago was a nearly destroyed nation. And Putin in power only lived practically a decade without economic sanctions.

Putin definitively distances himself from the US in his 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference. And the US never forgave him. That's when all the anti-Putin propaganda in the West starts. Because the financial markets in London and NY were more interested in continuing to bleed Russia's natural resources through the famous Russian oligarchs! As also happened in Ukraine. But having said that and returning to our subject, Shoigu's power is not comparable with Prigozhin's power. Why he's allowed to say so much shit, I honestly don't know either. Or is it just a troll? I don't know. But I don't think it's positive for Russia. Especially at war.

Expand full comment

Yes, i'm 100% sure Putin is a true patriot of Russia. He did a great work to restore a country after 1990's and return it's sovereignity. I'm russian, i live in Moscow and i clearly see how much Russia transformed after 1990's. In 1990's Russia was something like Ukraine after 2014. But now it's a strong sovereign country with much higher standard of living. The West started to hate Putin from the begining, not after 2007. Because one of the first things he did after becoming president is returned most of resource companies to state property, so west related oligarchs couldn't plunder a country anymore at such scales. But some oligarchs still stayed. And not only oligarchs, i think a lot of western agents, spies and other west related persons deeply infiltrated in Russian government, military structures, commercial companies in 1990's and some of them still can exist. And it's maybe one of the reasons of creation PMC Wagner and other companies owned by Prigozhin. Putin has assembled a team of people loyal to him to carry out his plans. I think Shoigu, Gerasimov, Lavrov, Medvedev, Mishustin (prime minister), Elvira Nabiullina (head of Central Bank), Sergey Sobyanin (mayor of Moscow) and Prigozhin is main members of Putin team today. Gerasimov developed a new concepts of external politics and hybrid war. It seems all Russian geopolitics in last 10 years was led by this concepts. And some of the main ideas of this concepts is non traditional asymmetric warfare (including the use of PMC), informational war, propaganda, desinformation and other dirty or not 100% legal things. This is exactly what Prigozhin doing and this is his role in Putin team. So all these Prigozhin's dirty words and blaming of Shoigu and Gerasimov is trolling of Ukrainians and their masters in London and Washington to make them underestimate russian army and ministry of defence. But there is another and more important purpose of this. Putin understand that now he is a key person in Russia but he will not live forever. So he wants to be sure that Russia will continue to follow his path. He can't rely only on his team and wants to infiltrate his ideas deep in minds of Russian people and make them stronger and responsible for future of the country. He repeatedly stated that the main source of power in Russia is its people. And he wants to make it true. The best way to teach people something is to show by personal example. And it's Prigozhin will be as such example, he will show to people how to be strong and fearless and how to deal with oligarchs and incompetent politics. And this is exactly what Prigozhin now doing. He shows that he is not afraid to speak the truth about the problems in the country, about the incompetence of some politicians, about the impudence of the elites and oligarchs and he even can say his opinion to minister of defence and and chief of general staff. And statements of Prigozhin become more and more radical. May be this is also a way to get rid of some centers of power inside Russia that interferes to Putin. So this is what i think about how Prigozhin connected to Putin and about all crazy things Prigozhin is doing.

Expand full comment

Prigozhin has no political future in Russia, and no possibility of any political future, under any circumstance, in Russia. As a simple matter, he doesn't have any Russian vocabulary besides мать (Russian profanity). He swears like a convict who spent a decade behind bars... oops, I guess he did.

Expand full comment

Take it a step further, In a junta the president or premier is a general. Won't that make the war run well if the political economy is in the hands of generals? LOL. The whole point is to have a civilian controlling the administration, because economy matters in war. It also makes it much harder to organize a junta if (s)he's capable of administering the personalities.

Expand full comment
Jun 13, 2023·edited Jun 13, 2023

From times of emperor Petr I, already for 300 years how, in Russia the General Staff is responsible for the wars, not ministers or leaders. Minister is just member of govt, it is administrative position, de facto civilian.

As example in USSR Minister of Defence at late 1940s own carrier started as... trader of bread, while his peak of carrier before he became minister - director of State Bank of the USSR. He never had anything common with army, but was known as good manager, officers liked him for that.

Expand full comment

I’ve read on other forums that Prigozhin is going to be phased out of the picture. Maybe that would explain his behavior. If true maybe that should occur sooner than later. It seems to me that his mouth is responsible for at least part of the enmity against Wagner.

Expand full comment

He should take some vacation or go back to headquarters in St Petersburg.

Expand full comment

Plenty of work for him to do in Sudan or CAR or Burkina Faso, that's for sure.

Expand full comment

"So that is all to say that the Belgorod situation is a bit of a mess, and Ukraine is certainly using it to their fullest advantage, sowing all kinds of issues, which is precisely their plan."

Unfortunately, the incursion did exactly what it was intended to do, which is keep the narrative of Ukrainian success and Russian ineptitude front and center in western imagination.

And Russia needs to stop standing around and waiting for things to happen. Russia needs to make things happen.

Expand full comment

Have you heard the old joke? There are 3 types of people:

1) those who make things happen,

2) those who watch things happen,

3) those who say, "What happened?"

Expand full comment

Listening to the BBC 5 minutes ago, there was a news piece about UAF successes in taking Russian territory and that it was hoped by western backers that this was a precurser to their success in the expected counteroffensive. They described the neo-nazi mercs as "paramilitaries".

So Ukraine winning the Twitter war again, but then how could they lose? I remember all those stories of wily and skilful retreats last summer when the UAF got cut off and surrounded in Lysechansk.

It is a mystery though why the border is not better manned as theoretically there are plenty of troops available. Maybe 5D chess, maybe a simpler explanation? Looks like incompetence to me - that or lack of resources.

I listen to Berlectic last night who went into the neo-nazis in detail. I had a bit of an intense debate in my cups a week ago with a pal who is hopelessly left wing and also gay. He was convinced the UK Guardian report of a Russian liberation army were true, and not a bunch of CIA funded nazi thugs committing terrorist acts against mainly civilians. Turns out the new Vlassovs are anti LBGT alaphabet people too. I am resisting sending him the link. He would think it Kremlin disinformation. He can live in his world, I'll live in mine.

Expand full comment

In war, the defending side has to appear more powerful than it is to dissuade the attacker, while the attacking side has to appear weaker than it is to encourage a feeling of complacency in the defenders.

Thus, the West and Ukraine are doing the Russian's job by making the Russian forces appear weaker than they are.

In the end, wars are won by weapons and soldiers and not by PR campaigns.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

The Ukrainian actions today reminded me of the movie" Wag the Dog". They accomplished nothing of substance in the day, and got really slaughtered in the Zaporozhye attack. All spin for PR to serve their NATO masters fake narratives, meanwhile they lose massive numbers of men and equipment. They lost 16 tanks and like 20 armored vehicles. The Ukrainians are insane, mad beings. Meanwhile, Russia methodically dismembers the Ukrainian military capacity. Just another day at the front.

Expand full comment
author

Yep, but you've got to hand it to them. They're doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing. They're maximizing their limited position.

Expand full comment

Yeah, suicide is a valid option for them.

Expand full comment

I don't think they are insane. The only possible way for Ukraine to win its war is to create such instablity within Russia that they are forced to quit. This is all part of it. The Twitter war - it is hoped - will be more important than the shooting one. Well good luck with that - but you have to admit the Ukes are doing well in that sphere of conflict.

Expand full comment

Ukraine cannot win against Russia. Even Nato cannot win a conventional war against Russia in Ukraine because Russia has escalation dominance. Russia will deploy the forces necessary to win because it's an existential issue to Mother Russia.

The only way to avoid a Ukrainian defeat is nuclear war, in which case we'll all lose.

Only Ukrainian supremacists and American exceptionalists can make themselves believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia by a sheer act of the will.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023

ok, you win, committing suicide is not insane. Killing off most of your male population is not insane. Fighting a nuclear power is not insane. Nazi's are not insane.

Expand full comment

My guess is given the choice between winning the war end exploring the bottom of the sea in a concrete lifejacket, the Ukrainian leadership have taken the sensible option!

Expand full comment

A great way to look at it. When you sell your soul to the devil, these are the choices you have.

Expand full comment

Not to mention, Ukraine must keep a narrative of success going, to keep the troops in line, to keep western largesse flowing.

Expand full comment

We are not talking of the regular ukro who is just wishing to drink his vodka peacefully but of the brainwashed mavericks, mostly poles

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

ukraine actions re belgorod are small potato terrorism on the level of the drug cartel acting in mexico....

Expand full comment
author

Yep, pretty much. At this point their actions are starting to resemble more and more of the 90s terrorist actions of the Chechen groups who blew up apartment blocs in Moscow, took theaters hostage as well as schools in Beslan, etc.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Actually, the AUF is starting to remind me of how ISIS fought in Syria. I'm not sure that's a coincidence.

Expand full comment

You are right - it's not. When Govt forces are closing in, ISIS & al CIAda, leaders /top commanders seem to routinely get airlifted out of harms way, in the dead of night usually, by US army helos (Video exists from Syria back in 2015 or 16 from memory of just that). On a larger scale they are shifted from conflict zone to conflict zone as the need for 'pet terrorists' arises. Business as usual for the combined Intelligence services of the collective West. "Terrorists R Us"

Expand full comment

There was an article in one of the major western media rags about this in the last week. How the Ukrainians "learned" from ISIS technics. Absolutely creepy. I'm with you, Kaleidescope, I don't think its a coincidence.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

The video that “Ukraine even reportedly briefly hijacked Crimean airwaves today, broadcasting an ‘ominously foreboding’ message on TV screens that appeared to imply the coming offensive” is so bizarre! A pure Hollywood production.

Expand full comment
author

Agreed. But for their audience it works.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Yes, it is the saddest part of this psy-op!

Expand full comment

The video did exactly what it was intended to do, to keep the narrative of success going, to give Crimeans a reason to think that things are not under control and the war will soon be coming to them.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

In case no one else has noticed the fucking loony circus IS the "spring offensive". Ukraine cant invade Russia..deception, misdirection and covert skulduggery are probably the only things the anlgos are still good at. Prigozhin is right we need a Stalin.But he should remember that Stalin would surely have jerked a knot in his ass for his antics.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Prigozhin has broken Russian law at least four times by my count, so he should be careful what he wishes for, as Stalin would have him making license plates in a Gulag up in the Urals.

Expand full comment
author

Yep

Expand full comment

Honestly I understood where he’s coming from earlier but now I’m not so sympathetic.

Prigozhin needs to take a vacation for a few months.

It will be good for him and everyone else.

Expand full comment
author

I'm of two minds about it. On one hand I agree. But on the other hand a part of me thinks, well, what if Prigozhin is a rare critical voice that's needed to flush out some of the corruption in the MOD an RU military in general. It's a fine balance that has to be struck but certainly when it comes to events like today he begins to really make one grow weary

Expand full comment

Prigozhin works against unity on the Russian side. He is a drama queen like Zelensky, just happens to be on the winning side and Wagner's success appears to have little to do with Prigozhin and much to do with the military professionals in its ranks.

Expand full comment

The western press is full of stories about how Wagner will march on Moscow and implement regime change, causing civil war. I call BS on this but spats in public feed these stories. I could argue that this is maskirovka or dumb petulance, but increasingly looking like the latter. Given he is a fugurehead character he needs to be careful. Caution though does not appear to be part of his make up and that maybe makes him what he is - a winner.

Expand full comment

Its starting to look like he is simply spoiling for a fight with anyone at this point - regular Rus troops, Chechens, MOD - anyone willing to have a public spat.

Expand full comment

I agree.

My issue is not with what he’s saying per se. He’s probably right on many points and I have seen people ask why the heck is Shoigu still where he is - and even Gerasimov (although there is more of a reason with him).

No, my issue is with how public this all is. He might be forcing the issue to make sure Putin acts to correct things but there’s a line (both in how far you go and how many times you cross it) that I think he passed with that latest stunt.

I can’t imagine this is winning him any friends in the MoD and it is stretching Putin’s patience. To be clear, I don’t think he should or will be severely punished but a few weeks vacation and a clear warning from Putin along with some solutions to these issues should do it.

Whatever it is something needs to change because it’s sucking up morale and air.

Expand full comment

Perhaps its just a case of hey the West doesn't have much propaganda to market lately, lets give them a nugget to chew on. It's worked so well for them, why not?

Expand full comment

"...otherwise we will once again get an unpleasant surprise."

I'm not too sure it is a surprise.

Looks more like another Russian man-trap designed to lure elite troops into a meat grinder.

Expand full comment

It's not that at all

Expand full comment

Really?

So, what is it then?

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

I've got a feeling (like many others, I'm sure) that things are going to get even crazier. You can almost smell the desperation of the US/NATO/Ukraine side and desperate sociopaths tend to do reckless things.

Expand full comment
author

Oh definitely. I think NATO planners have way bigger things in store soon. These are all minor psyops so far, not even on the level of 'falseflag' and I think NATO has major falseflags in store, particularly ones revolving around the nuclear power plants like ZNPP, etc.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Worries the cr*p out of me.

Expand full comment

I'm sure they have plans, just not good ones. As for desperation and recklessness - consequences are coming home and can't be stopped.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Oh, and BTW - I would love to see what people had chosen in your quiz at the end, but NONE of the options are viable 😘 Mind you, someone should stop Progozhin. He is getting ridiculous.

Expand full comment
author

Go head and just click whatever and see the result, it's not that scientific after all

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Of course it is not scientific 😎. I was being too particular....I cannot see how any of those option could reflect my ‘unscientific’ opinion on your article....ok, I will click. I am too curious 😇

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

At this point the only thing stopping them from flying hijacked Russian civilian plains into buildings would be because it wouldn't look too good for their American Audience, which is their number one priority. Ukraine can only ''win'' meme wars with massive western tech support, lets see how the modern meme war does crushing against reality.

Expand full comment
author

I wouldn't put it past them. They shot down MH17 in 2014 to do the bidding of American masters and hamstring the Donbass war effort which was kicking their ass at that point. As soon as they did the MH17 falseflag in July 2014, the war was immediately stopped as Minsk 1 was instantly signed on September 2014 on account of it.

Expand full comment

I still cant get people to understand ukraine did MH-17

Expand full comment

Another theory is that MH17 had to be downed to get the Europeans on the sanctions escalator. Many in Europe at the time didn't think Crimea was enough to impose an all out sanctions war against Russia. After the downing, media propagandists and TV talk show moderators would habitually refer to the MH17 downing as the ultimate proof that the Russians are evil.

Expand full comment

If Ukrainian terrorists were to undertake a sort of 11/9 (Russian month-day date conventions are the opposite of American), the western MSM would justify it somehow.

Expand full comment

Future historians will be selected not for their ability to write narratives, but their ability to sift through huge amounts of social media posts and their ability to use archive.org.

History now belongs to the internet spergs wielding the Sword of Dox and the Pen of Memes.

Expand full comment

Rusaia needs to Blow the bridge up already.

Expand full comment

yeah, like the bridge is SO important when you share a border on both sides of the river

Expand full comment

So you think ukraine should just be allowed to use them

Expand full comment

no, i dont see why its not blown up when Russia doesnt even need it

Expand full comment
author

What's interesting is Russia did blow up some bridges on the border but in the Chernigov and Sumy regions https://www.bitchute.com/video/tClacrswhMB5/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/KunVObCEt216/

as well as other bridges in rough region of LPR https://www.bitchute.com/video/O1S6cWjXkjPV/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/fJRtYhvZZdGn/

but I don't know why the bridges near Kharkov they don't blow. I can only assume it's the reasons I outlined in article which is that Russia doesn't consider these Ukrainian forces on the border much of a threat (rather just a nuisance) and doesn't want to waste the bridges which they themselves (Russia) intends to use in the future when it retakes Kharkov region

Expand full comment

We hear this narrative that the stupid Russians cannot even play chess any more... What if this is on purpose? Let the Ukr think they run a smart psyop attacking Belgorod. But later, this will come good to justify going beyond the 5 oblasts, both for the domestic audience and internationally for the global south.

Expand full comment

Oh I thought you were being sarcastic I'm sorry lol

Expand full comment
author

Well as crazy as it may sound. Ukraine's plan may in fact backfire. You see, they're expending a lot of manpower for these attacks which are typically at least several companies or battalion in size if you include supporting elements in the rear. And Russia appears to be fending off the attacks with disproportionately smaller amounts of local territorial forces. So my point is that by giving Ukraine a channel to waste their time at the border, Russia is actually tying up some of their forces by using much less of their own forces, at least for now. If Russia falls into their trap and brings entire brigades over to counteract them then this will sort of be negated.

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

That makes sense. Hope it's the right call

Expand full comment
Jun 5, 2023Liked by Simplicius

This FPV drones are terrifying. Looking at the headset and the massive cables it looks like some serious kit. Payload seems to be at least a grenade of explosives probably two? It’s the first I’m I see the Russians using these FPV drones. One operator seems to be able to work a big area. Beside looking for targets of opportunity, other can follow the video feed and mark soldiers and position on a map based on what they can figure out from the FPV footage. Now this whole drone tank stuff makes a lot more sense.

Expand full comment