Took Stalin like 7 years to get insurgency under control in west Ukraine. This is after their German Nazi suppliers were killed. Nah just take ethnic Russian parts and siege west until attitude improves. Want a port, gas anything? Better behave.
Yes, a dismal reality (for the West) has finally emerged. It can no longer be papered over with lies and propaganda. So what's next? Russia has been clear on its objectives since day one: de-militarization and de-nazification; that is, a non-hostile state on its borders. Until this is achieved, the war will continue. What will eventually be negotiated is how this is implemented--how much is absorbed into Russia proper, how much is a de-militarized rump state and, perhaps, how much goes to Poland. Believe the Russians will consider the inclinations of the population in each area. For the Russians, it has never been about conquest or revenge. It has been about establishing a viable security arrangement. Things won't settle down until this is achieved.
So many don’t understand what you so clearly and simply state - they can’t shake the clearly evidence-free narrative that Russia wants to take over all of Europe - most recently promoted by that old geezer McConnell. Honestly the lies our leaders tell with no regard for the death and suffering they cause - and for what - they are already powerful and they are already obscenely rich. Makes one believe there is a devil.
Indeed, Russia has stated objectives clearly from the start and there is no reason to expect them to change now. However one must wonder to what extent, if any, Russia would trust a negotiated agreement after the Minsk Agreements fraud and additional deceit committed by Kiev and their DC masters. DC is no longer credible or worthy of trust.
precisely. the very idea that this same group of lying braggarts, faithless mediators, would be allowed to be involved in such a sensitive matter for Russia is ludicrous The Russian public would be incensed. Never again, I'd guess.
Very similar to the Covid coup. They prove they are murderous evil demons and still with the WHO initiatives to consolidate and expand their power.
The ultimate message for us? What looks disastrous to us is actually very profitable for those with the power. They reward their servants or find better ones.
Frankly, Norma, I doubt the Russian public would accept anything less than full implementation of war aims and goal. Not with substantial casualties Russia has suffered.
Russia would be fools to trust any agreement...It must take over the the entire Black Sea area and ports, install a friendly government over a rump Ukraine, and thoroughly demilitarize it..That would leave Ukraine completely harmless---and its population much better off!
I agree. I will actually be quite peeved if they fall for the NATO snake oil and agree to anything. They messed with the bull and now they get the horns, as the saying goes. Anything less than that and the lessons wont stick. Perhaps look at it this way: Grozny was a wasted ruin at the final end of the wars and now its up and running even better than before, with Chechens mopping up the Azov types with a smile.... Getting rid of the NATO “handlers” and cleptocrats will be like cutting loose a 500 lb water skier from the boat!
Yes, Ukraine's GDP/capita should be at least 5x greater than it has been, and eventually 10x...Excellent farmland, fairly educated population, industry left by the Russians...
Sadly, Ukrainian Nazis populate many of the western nations and positions of power and influence. De-Nazification might be a bridge too far, but we can only hope. Shining a light might make them scatter and hide, but probably won't kill them.
First it was the "time" mockingbird fluff article followed by a NBC mockingbird fluff piece..
but yet the people "believe" what is written.
Zelensky will "win" another oscar. A truly gifted actor. Move over Penn a new star is born. (Oscar for a "sacrificial" death scene.)
Give up the oblasts? How about the Nazism, Sanctions, the world court/Putin, Nord stream etc. The west would have to give much up. Not going to happen.
It's past time for peace negotiations, (What will the west promise?? "Trust or stall tactics".) In time, wait for the Ukie all term surrender and deal with the Ukrainian people themselves.
The west still needs Russia weak, tied up. Keeps much of their resources/influences out of the middle east, and other parts. $$$
Yeah I get the sense that the time for talking seriously with the USA & NATO vassals has long since past. Sure, Russia may very well go through the motions to keep up appearances....but as I have said before: Metal talks and BullShit walks.
"The west still needs Russia weak, tied up. Keeps much of their resources/influences out of the middle east, and other parts." ................God comment, and underappreciated so far.
Not sure that Poland would want a bunch of fractious and heavily armed people who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who also have a history of ethnic cleansing of Poles, well within living memory.
I do not know a Polish family that did not suffer at the hands of Ukrainians in 1943-44.
There can be no negotiations with the West ....... EVER.
If Putin negotiates with them instead of getting Russian tanks to the Polish border etc he isn't being a realist or "thinking about how it will play for China and the globalsouth" ..... he is a traitor.
It’s not reasonable for Russia to take over western Ukraine. I think they will stop after Kharkov and Odessa is taken. Then see how the dementia administration responds to that.
Reasonable or not if it is not done the West will continue to attack Russia via that nazi rump in the West of the former Ukraine. In the real world not everyone is going to be happy about it but that is just tough luck. The Ukrainians played silly games and they have won a silly prize and if the Poles etc want to play as well they shall also receive silly prizes.
It’s possible Ukraine will collapse after Odessa and Kharkov is taken. The dementia administration will already be onto other wars by then and Russia will have to put in a friendly puppet gov.
Alternatively, Western Ukraine could be absorbed into the surrounding eu countries.
Once the funding stops it’s game over for Ukraine.
Usually a DMZ type situation is due in part to there being an actual stalemate. Based on what we are able to see as far as military strength on each side, such a situation is unlikely to occur. I also doubt that the Russian public will settle for some sort or “agreement to cease fire” when they have sacrificed their blood. I live in the USA and even from where I sit, it’s a virus that NATO etc has been trying to Balkanize Russia for decades. IT has to be crystal clear to the average Russian that they will not stop voluntarily.
I can't see Russia wanting to take the western part of Ukraine (Galecia), because it is so very anti-Russian. I don't know about Kiev/Kyiv
I live in non-NATO Austria (I'm American) with family (in-laws), friends and business in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. I agree about NATO. We're all paying higher oil and especially gas prices thanks to this NATO provoked war, and the US/Norway/? blowing up Nord Stream. NATO is (IMO) a dead man walking at this point. There are a huge number of EU politicians whose careers are tied to NATO, but this war - and particularly Nordstream AFTER the sanctions that only hurt the average EU resident - made it crystal clear that the US and NATO are not here to defend the EU, they are here to defend US business interests.
I don't read/speak Russian, nor do I know much of anything even indirectly about the Russian domestic mood. From what I understand (with big grains of salt) the average Russian is not feeling the war so much. Many people (not just in Russia) understand that the US/NATO has been trying to destroy everything pro-Russian in/around Europe for a very long time. The Serbs for sure.
The hard-core Nazis in Ukraine are not going to settle unless they are decimated to the point of powerlessness. I don't know how long that takes, but eventually Ukraine will collapse. The war is not really a stalemate now. Russia is just letting Ukraine "punch itself out" before going on the attack. I don't have a good feel for how war-weary Russia is.
I hold the opinion that the Polish border will be moving east. Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will be getting their fair share as well. "Peace-keeping" missions to deter further Ruskie aggression with "a wink and a nod".
Then Poland and Slovakia will be at war with Russia because those lands have been earned in Russian blood and if Poland and Slovakia want to play silly games they will be gone. I have said, and I am correct, the West shall never give up because the West is controlled by the US that doesn't give a damn about Europe except as a way to weaken Russia and therefore will keep pushing their vassals in Europe to attack Russia with terrorists, financially etc etc etc and so Russia will be forced to save ALL of Western Europe from the new Nazi state forming in North America as we write. These are the preliminary motions to a war in North America that will end that evil hegemony once and for all.
I don't think Putin cares about the other 4 nations reclaiming territory Stalin forced them to give up.
We (the US) are in a heap of trouble economically, diplomatically and culturally. Beyond a global nuke hellscape we are losing our ability to project power through intimidation or force.
I am sure we can still crush Haiti and liberate Bermuda from the UK all in the same day and that is about it.
I doubt the US is going to be able to persuade any other NATO member beyond our two most faithful hounds, Canada and UK, and maybe the insignificant Baltic states to continue being stupid.
Silly games and silly prizes is a kind way to describe WEF, EU and NATO's effeteness.
Once Kharkov and Odessa is taken Ukraine will collapse. Then they will get Kiev by default without any destruction. That’s a better plan. No sense to turn Kiev into Bakhmut or Mariupol.
Ok, so then what? They wait for remilitarization of the rump remaining so that this whole war scenario WILL be repeated again in the near future? No, that’s not a reasonable solution, just wishful thinking on your part. Unconditional surrender is the only viable option.
My Potato-in-Chief's regime may or may not have anything to say that anyone can understand until it is carefully translated by the MSM. As for an active response, probably assist Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland get their "peace-keeping" missions in place so BlackRock can salvage a little something for it's investors. I am sure cash for rebuilding will be made available. Everyone enjoys a nice infrastructure grift.
I'd say no negotiations with Israel are doable at this point either. Israel seems pretty agreement incapable too, not because they go back on their deals but more that they don't wish to negotiate about anything in the first place.
Israel is pursuing a "Final Solution to the Palestinian Question" which means mass expulsions of most Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Those that remain in Gaza will be exterminated by the IDF under the guise of "collateral damage" incurred by fighting Hamas. The US is fully complicit in the Final Solution, but the rest of the Muslim world likely won't sit by and watch this new Nakba Holocaust.
They mostly just want to push them all into South Gaza first, and then they will push them into the Sinai. The Genocide Jews have been pretty explicit with this plan. The current genocide is to terrorize the Palestinians into heading to the south and then to leaving for Gaza.
This is exactly what the Genocide Jews did in 1948! They terrorized people into leaving and then stole their land. The Nakba never ended. Zionist ideology is based on continuous Nakba until the land is cleared of non-Jews. You have to understand how these people think. And I assure you most Israeli Jews are out and out fascists, and they will only get worse and even more fascist in the future. As an antifascist I have nothing but hatred for these Jewish fash!
"but the rest of the Muslim world likely won't sit by and watch this new Nakba Holocaust."
That's exactly what they are doing. (((Egypt))), (((Jordan))), and (((Saudi Arabia))) are actually HELPING the Genocide Jews in this war by shooting down Houthi missiles.
"The US is fully complicit in the Final Solution."
Of course the (((US))) and some of the (((West))) has signed on to the Nakba of Gazans to Sinai.
You wrote "The current genocide is to terrorize the Palestinians into heading to the south and then to leaving for Gaza."
Yes. But Egypt has stated in the clearest terms that they are not going to solve the "Palestinian Question" for J'salem by admitting Millions of Gaza residents.. So what's the fallback plan?
The alternative to expulsion is to kill the Palestinians in Gaza. That will be done by fighting an all out war "against Hamas" in a heavily populated urban environment. This war will create 2.5 million deaths labelled as "collateral damage". This is not a surmise on my part... a "expel 'em or kill 'em" Nakba 2-Final Solution has been articulated by the highest levels of strategic planning in Israel with the (unfortunate) support of the majority of Israelis. Such plan has been in the works since the mid- 1940s.
Yeah. The Palestinians should peacefully disappear and let their homes, culture and property be expropriated and annihilated by European colonial invaders.
The Genocide Jews started this whole thing. Those bottle rockets barely kill one soul. Boo hoo! Poor Jews! Poor genociders! The victims of your genocide are shooting bottle rockets at you!
"..They who "say they are Hebrew, and are not, but are the synagogue of Satan...."
your statement has either come from ignorance... or you already know it, which is the more likely, in which case your statement was an act of phishing, to shall we say "test the water"
consider the water tested, so many are coming forward and understanding the lie, of who resides behind the worlds ills and what must be done to prevent further ills being put upon us
in the deeper meaning of "Apokolypse" strongs concordance states "the removal of the veil of deception from the eyes of the Gentiles"
who? might decieve the Gentiles.....
we note too the request by israyhell to destroy Amalek, a request of the West for Consent, knowing full well We are all Amalek, sneaky little fuckers...
Anyone truly interested in knowing All the Truth might search avidly for the huge file known as "Europa" the full extend of the "bolshevik/jew" revolution, wwI and II and so on through the "banking deception" to present day
further reading can be had at "hidden in the crag" where detailed analysis and study of the red heifer/burnt offering which will attempt to create the conditions for seating satans representative on earth in an attempt to cast dominion over all...
i shit ye not, the hour is very late, but many are waking up, so "niemeyer" consider your self informed, ta,ta 4 now
It's worse than that. They have been insisting for two decades now that "There is no partner to negotiate with." Supposedly even the sellout PA is too radical and insane for the Jews to deal with. Actually the Genocide Jews hate the PA more than anyone else because the PA is so reasonable. They only want fanatical, violent enemies like Hamas so they can demonize them.
The only alternative being the weakening of US/NATO/G7/EU to a degree that they have other problems than instigating conflicts for at least a few decades.
The people of the former Ukraine have suffered enough and would still suffer under those collapsing Western regimes as they use the people of the former Ukraine to play silly games to the bitter end of their regime's bloodlines so I say bring the former Ukrainians back into the Russian fold. They are like lost sheep that Russia is bringing home. If some want to go down the plughole with Western Europe they can always just leave, no-one is stopping them.
They will keep suffering until they grow some intelligence and personal power. If not, they will continue to be slaves and nothing good happens to slaves. It’s all choice.
The "West" has been drinking the poison of Financialization for several decades, reaching top speed in 2009, where the Financial Criminals were bailed out by the jingo of Too Big To Fail as they stole hundreds of Billions from the working poor.
Amazing how passionate people are about the Israel/Palestine thing, this is one of the reasons I suggested to not cover it at all. Anyway, I prefer the long form format of your reports and would prefer they stay that way rather than moving to the Twitter cesspool. Perhaps the quick fix people can follow you there, but you continue to keep these write-ups as they are?
Watching the Ukraine slowly wither is very heartening, happy days, finally!
These (((reactionaries))) on here don't want it covered because (((Republicans))) and (((MAGA types))) love the Genocide Jews! Only 6% of (((Republicans))) oppose the Genocide Jews right now.
No. no. no. no. do not encourage any change of format.
I find very, very few enjoyable, literate, trustworthy, informative, sensible intelligent sources. More and more I value Simplicius for being what he is as he is.
My eyes light up when I see he's posted again.
They cast around like a dog viewing an empty bowl when I reach the end...
Long form is fine. Catering to the ever shrinking attention span is for the birds. Plus, one can always go back and read the rest later....heck this platform does it automatically !
'We are not ready to give up our freedom to this f**king terrorist Putin. That's it. That's why we are fighting.'
But this a'hole is not fighting. Neither is Arestovych, who is in all likelihood a thoroughly sadistic P.O.S. Zelensky would probably be terrified if he spent even one day in the frontline on the receiving end of Russia's attacks.
Have you noticed that the exterminationist real Nazi Ukrainians and the Nazi-like exterminationist thought of the Genocide Jews is more or less identical? Or how about the Nazi-like exterminationism of ISIS and Al Qaeda? Or the Nazi-like exterminationist mindset of the death squad rightwing dictatorships we supported over the years?
I think America just loves genocidal, Nazi-like people with exterminationist mindsets.
Americans are simply a genocidal people. Americans love genocide!
63% of Americans (83% of Americans if a vote were taken) support the Genocide Jews' war in Israel.
71% support the Ukrainian Nazis' genocidal war in Ukraine.
Most supported the death squad dictators who massacred over a million in the Cold War.
Apparently most Americans support the US presence in Syria and support for genocidal Al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria.
You can argue that they don't think it's genocide, but it's obvious that it is.
We are NOT good people. We are NOT a good country. Furthermore it's dubious that we've ever been either one. Face it the country was founded on genocide, and that worked itself right into our very soul, where the weight of history continues to drive us forwards, blindly.
Conflict is human, but there are degrees. Can you honestly say that the USA’s exporting of war is not superlative. Compare it to Thailand for example....
Thank you. That is so beautiful. I've been resisting that idea forever now because it's been weaponized by SJW idiots, but after thinking it over, I'm afraid you are right. I'm still a patriot. I love my country because I want us to stop doing that. I'm not comfortable being an America-hater. It doesn't feel good.
A Green Beret Vietnam vet and subsequent member of the Communist Party, USA told me that American casualties in Vietnam would be an order of magnitude greater than they were without helicopter MEDEVAC.
I think you are correct. Look at the delight we take in firing employees. 90% of the people I have seen fired were not really fired for cause. They were fired because the boss didn't like them.
I was on a forum for people from all over and they were discussing an article about why Americans get fired and the Europeans were all saying, "Damn you fire people for this petty bullshit? What are you, a society of maniacs?"
We are.
Remember how popular Trump's show The Apprentice was? Remember how the country loved to hear him utter, "You're fired!"
The practice seemed to have worked in the 50 year takeover US University Campuses, though I would not describe it as being in the interests of the proletariat.
"The U.S. and it's policy have been run by the left for 30 years"
LOL you think shitlibs are the Left. You know how much we real Lefties hate shitlibs?
Our foreign and domestic policy has been run by the "Left?" LOL first of all there's not much of a Left in this country in the first place. Take that comment around and ask a bunch of Lefties if it's true and watch them all laugh in your faces.
It's been hardline conservatism plus crappy shitlibs who aren't even on the Left.
It never stopped. True, pure imperialism just warped into neocolonialism and the imperialism of force and threats. Nothing much changed. Manifest Destiny and the Monroe Doctrine are ONGOING. Shitlibs like Mather LOVE the Monroe Doctrine and are always talking about "our backyard." That horrible phrase has never disappeared from our crap culture and the imperialist press uses it all the time.
great artricle thankyou so much. Wish I could help financially..but not so. Would love to read lots and lots of what you have to say about Israel and Palestine...thank God you didn't take Israel's side - Borzzikman has been putting out good videos but would love to read what you can collect.
Yep. I feel exactly the same. I can't even spare $10 and have not. Have never, I think, not to Simplicius.
I am a busy man. I iust drove up to Bunnings and got an M6 UNC fine thread screw to replace a missing one in a clapped out piece of junk office chair we'll never use again. ( had to buy a bunch in a 'blister pack', you know how it is these days).
Such is my twisted mind and so extensive is my available time that I enjoy 'fixing' such things so's they go to the dump 'fixed'.
Petrol, time, screws and the p.o.s. el cheapo garden hose I picked up on impulse while I was there ( 6 years warranty ? did you ever know a garden hose last 6 years ?).
Cost me a fair bit in the end.
Coming up $20 or so. If Simplicius knew just how many such expenses we have to meet on a daily basis, just how great the demands are upon our funds, he probably wouldn't be so insistent in his importuning. If he is. Is he? I don't actually remember seeing anything.
But, yep, I take your point. I feel exactly the same way. I'd love to help financially but....
The number of workers in the US having to take multiple jobs just to keep the lights on and food on the table is at an all-time high now. So, I completely understand what you're saying.
I know what you're saying is false because it is axiomatic that the pinnacle of human enlightenment, freedom, compassion, fair play, equality, etc. etc.. is right there in the great and glorious (hats off, please and be upstanding) 'United States of America'.
So I fear you're probably a fifth columnist spreading fear and dissent. Shame on you.
That's strange isn't it? The subjectivity of the human experience. My take has been that no garden hose can ever be trusted to deliver when required and must never be left alone with the water switched on under any circumstances...
This is all so strange. 50 countries + Ukraine deciding acceptable negotiation terms without including Russia in the conversation... Arestovich under the belief that NATO membership is still on the table if Ukraine concedes the Donbas, and that the Russians will be stupid enough to sign a Minsk 3 in a couple of years if they don't... US planners believing they can orchestrate a freezing of the conflict to retain control over a rump Ukraine that they can pillage and re-arm for a future assault on Russia...
When are these clueless idiots going to grasp the reality they're facing?
Mercouris/Christoforou have noted repeatedly that the West spends more time achieving consensus on a "solution" internally than actually talking with the other side.
This "frozen conflict" nonsense has all the hallmarks of the same delusional decision making/diplomatic process.
Will someone please explain to me the rationale Zelensky and all those who think the same way have for declaring they 'are not prepared to give our freedom to Putin' ?
Please.
I simply do not understand. What 'freedom' do they think Putin or anyone else is threatening?
Do they not realise they have been engaged on a civil war of aggression and invasion since 2014 with a declared aim of ethnic cleansing?
What have I got wrong?
Isn't that the way it is?
Where do they manufacture a threat 'to their freedom' from out of that?
They don't simply mean literally the supposed 'freedom to conquer and ethnically cleanse our own brothers' do they?
The 'freedom' to wage civil war on ethnic grounds?
I've lost the plot here and it is rather important. Presumably the half million dead Kiev Ukrainians died because they shared Zelensky's point of view which I totally miss.
I think we all ought to have it clear.
We all ought to see very clearly the two 'sides': those who think Zelensky's way and those that cannot see the sense of that at all.
Right now Zelensky for all he is losing the war and his nation and his people etc. etc... is winning the propaganda war hands down. Easily. In spades. Doubled and redoubled. Because EVERYONE seems to think that's what he's engaged upon: a legitimate attempt to preserve his legitimate freedoms.
I simply cannot understand. I can't make my mind reach far out and come up with an explanation.
This is the primary fig leaf that the West has for its involvement (and for actual Ukrainians to support the war). Any hint at real reasoning would see a total collapse of political support in NATO, both for Ukraine and the current EU leadership.
It’s all nonsense. There’s no freedom in Ukraine. When Russia manages their part of the country there will be peace and stability. That will be an improvement over the corrupt, retarded Ukrainian gov that’s not competent enough to manage a bubble gum machine without destroying it in the process.
First: you assume Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. They are in fact losing it. Remember the end goal: it's not to convince people that "Russia bad", it's to secure weapons and money for the war. And they are demonstrably failing at that.
Second: you assume that Zelensky is acting in the best interest of Ukraine, which is again demonstrably not true. He would have settled this entire saga pre 2022, with zero bloodshed. He clearly doesn't give a fuck whatsoever. He's just playing a role. The interesting thing for him is how does he get out of this without being whacked by the SBU/Azov/Right Sector, the CIA, or someone else. If I was Zelensky, my #1 priority is >How do I not die in a helicopter "accident"?<
How to win the war, or preserve the country is waay down the list.
I do not assume Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. I point out that it has won dramatically in making the whole western world couch the narrative in terms of 'Ukraine v Russia'.
I will not try to spell it out again You either see it or you don't.
I have never assumed Zelensky to be acting in the best interests of Ukraine and have never stopped attempting to point out how ludicrous it is to pretend it is in the best interests of Ukraine to have 500,000 of them die. I have a record of invoking Viktor Orban's remarks on the task of a politician in that regard.
Of course he's playing a role.
I don't know what interests him. Self preservation and egoboost we can assume, it's what interests most of us.
Thank you for the revelations regarding how you would think were you him.
I can't speak to how far 'down the list' preserving the country is for him. On current performance I'd incline to think he's not rational enough to have it on the list anywhere: if you cannot see the paradox in fighting for a nation to the last man I don't think you can see anything.
You have a gift. Whatever you do to broaden your reach is a benefit to all, not least of all truth and debate.
Nevertheless, please keep your long form analysis. And back it up, (just incase) and as an investment in the future. You have the makings of one hell-of-a book. After this tragic horror passes, you will be in one of the best positions to offer a thorough postmortem.
Followed on X. First account to actually follow! (only recently joined X)
On negotiations with Russia, I'd say Russia has to hammer long and hard on the fact that Minsk was a ruse. Loudly and constantly, otherwise we'll see a lot of "Blame Russia for not reaching an agreement" (We'll see that anyway)
Once again, thanks very much indeed for a great analysis of the situation.
Do you think that Russia could retain control of Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast in the face of a western funded insurgency campaign with some sort of Ukrainian government in exile to ‘legitimise’ it?
"Do you think that Russia could retain control of Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast in the face of a western funded insurgency campaign with some sort of Ukrainian government in exile to ‘legitimise’ it?"
If we look at successful insurgencies in recent years, one thing they all have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen is something like 19 years of age.
The median age in Ukraine was over 40, and that before the war. The median age of Ukrainian soldiers is now some over 43.
Great update, but this section sorely misses the mark, IMO:
"...For U.S. planners, it’s much better to cut their losses and freeze this thing at a point where the U.S. can still retain control over a fairly dangerous Ukrainian rump-state that can be parasitized to continue wounding, destabilizing, and fencing in Russia perennially. Plus, it gives them the chance to massively rearm and refit Ukraine for the future, while stripping it of its assets to enrich Western stakeholders, allowing them to relaunch the war at a future date to continue bleeding Russia. If Zelensky takes it “all the way” he risks the total capture of Ukraine by Russian forces..."
What you articulate above is exactly why *RUSSIA* will take this all the way (regardless of what Zelensky does), why they'll achieve a total victory (regardless of the cost and time it takes), and why US aligned interests won't have control over any part of rump Ukraine.
Only the direct injection of Western manpower would enable extending things that long.
1) Direct intervention - but I really doubt this. It would be suicidal.
2) Volunteerism ala the Spanish Civil War - not too many in the West ready to face Russian tanks and artillery by choice, though. I have had no problem going to war before but I wouldn't do it for this bad cause.
They are having a recruiting problem. Without bodies, the front collapses. Think about it for a moment - if they had hope they wouldn't be talking about failure now, because if I were about to be conscripted, and I were told that things were going badly, i'd flee myself. No one wants to be the last killed in a war.
Took Stalin like 7 years to get insurgency under control in west Ukraine. This is after their German Nazi suppliers were killed. Nah just take ethnic Russian parts and siege west until attitude improves. Want a port, gas anything? Better behave.
Disagree. Revanchism will continue until 404 is eliminated. Same thing in the Middle East. As long as there is an Israel there will be no peace.
Yes, a dismal reality (for the West) has finally emerged. It can no longer be papered over with lies and propaganda. So what's next? Russia has been clear on its objectives since day one: de-militarization and de-nazification; that is, a non-hostile state on its borders. Until this is achieved, the war will continue. What will eventually be negotiated is how this is implemented--how much is absorbed into Russia proper, how much is a de-militarized rump state and, perhaps, how much goes to Poland. Believe the Russians will consider the inclinations of the population in each area. For the Russians, it has never been about conquest or revenge. It has been about establishing a viable security arrangement. Things won't settle down until this is achieved.
well said
So many don’t understand what you so clearly and simply state - they can’t shake the clearly evidence-free narrative that Russia wants to take over all of Europe - most recently promoted by that old geezer McConnell. Honestly the lies our leaders tell with no regard for the death and suffering they cause - and for what - they are already powerful and they are already obscenely rich. Makes one believe there is a devil.
Or certainly some demonic minions doing some bang-up herding of the ignorant masses...
Indeed, Russia has stated objectives clearly from the start and there is no reason to expect them to change now. However one must wonder to what extent, if any, Russia would trust a negotiated agreement after the Minsk Agreements fraud and additional deceit committed by Kiev and their DC masters. DC is no longer credible or worthy of trust.
precisely. the very idea that this same group of lying braggarts, faithless mediators, would be allowed to be involved in such a sensitive matter for Russia is ludicrous The Russian public would be incensed. Never again, I'd guess.
Very similar to the Covid coup. They prove they are murderous evil demons and still with the WHO initiatives to consolidate and expand their power.
The ultimate message for us? What looks disastrous to us is actually very profitable for those with the power. They reward their servants or find better ones.
Frankly, Norma, I doubt the Russian public would accept anything less than full implementation of war aims and goal. Not with substantial casualties Russia has suffered.
absolutely. the public would be outraged. The leaders would pay the price.
Russia would be fools to trust any agreement...It must take over the the entire Black Sea area and ports, install a friendly government over a rump Ukraine, and thoroughly demilitarize it..That would leave Ukraine completely harmless---and its population much better off!
The fact is that the Ukraine is rich in resources, and would be a wealthy country if it rid itself of the parasites currently ruling it...
The question of Ukrainian work ethic is still an unknown. Many countries have resources, yet envy their neighbors.
I agree. I will actually be quite peeved if they fall for the NATO snake oil and agree to anything. They messed with the bull and now they get the horns, as the saying goes. Anything less than that and the lessons wont stick. Perhaps look at it this way: Grozny was a wasted ruin at the final end of the wars and now its up and running even better than before, with Chechens mopping up the Azov types with a smile.... Getting rid of the NATO “handlers” and cleptocrats will be like cutting loose a 500 lb water skier from the boat!
Yes, Ukraine's GDP/capita should be at least 5x greater than it has been, and eventually 10x...Excellent farmland, fairly educated population, industry left by the Russians...
If the rebuilding of Mauriopol is any indicator things should become increasingly prosperous for the Oblasts that fall under Russian jurisdiction
There is no Guarantor available, so Russia will achieve the necessary results on the ground.
Trust, once lost, is never regained.
hey, don't leave out Hungary, which has been pretty decent to Russia. They get their bit of Ukraine, too.
Sadly, Ukrainian Nazis populate many of the western nations and positions of power and influence. De-Nazification might be a bridge too far, but we can only hope. Shining a light might make them scatter and hide, but probably won't kill them.
Although to be fair it is more of a challenge to hide and stay hidden in this day and age....
First it was the "time" mockingbird fluff article followed by a NBC mockingbird fluff piece..
but yet the people "believe" what is written.
Zelensky will "win" another oscar. A truly gifted actor. Move over Penn a new star is born. (Oscar for a "sacrificial" death scene.)
Give up the oblasts? How about the Nazism, Sanctions, the world court/Putin, Nord stream etc. The west would have to give much up. Not going to happen.
It's past time for peace negotiations, (What will the west promise?? "Trust or stall tactics".) In time, wait for the Ukie all term surrender and deal with the Ukrainian people themselves.
The west still needs Russia weak, tied up. Keeps much of their resources/influences out of the middle east, and other parts. $$$
Like Richard said. The "War" will continue.
Yeah I get the sense that the time for talking seriously with the USA & NATO vassals has long since past. Sure, Russia may very well go through the motions to keep up appearances....but as I have said before: Metal talks and BullShit walks.
"The west still needs Russia weak, tied up. Keeps much of their resources/influences out of the middle east, and other parts." ................God comment, and underappreciated so far.
The War the U.S. should be preparing for is the Internal War.
The U.S. can't afford to borrow and damn few will lend the aging whore money for future performance.
Not sure that Poland would want a bunch of fractious and heavily armed people who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who also have a history of ethnic cleansing of Poles, well within living memory.
I do not know a Polish family that did not suffer at the hands of Ukrainians in 1943-44.
I suspect Poland would want her territory back and if it came to scrubbing a few Uke Nazis clean, then so be it.
They'd have to completely depopulate it, and, as mentioned previously, from a heavily armed populace.
There can be no negotiations with the West ....... EVER.
If Putin negotiates with them instead of getting Russian tanks to the Polish border etc he isn't being a realist or "thinking about how it will play for China and the globalsouth" ..... he is a traitor.
The U.S. reached "stalemate" in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan too.
Narrative, a story, a fable, a fiction to suave the butthurt.
It’s not reasonable for Russia to take over western Ukraine. I think they will stop after Kharkov and Odessa is taken. Then see how the dementia administration responds to that.
Reasonable or not if it is not done the West will continue to attack Russia via that nazi rump in the West of the former Ukraine. In the real world not everyone is going to be happy about it but that is just tough luck. The Ukrainians played silly games and they have won a silly prize and if the Poles etc want to play as well they shall also receive silly prizes.
It’s possible Ukraine will collapse after Odessa and Kharkov is taken. The dementia administration will already be onto other wars by then and Russia will have to put in a friendly puppet gov.
Alternatively, Western Ukraine could be absorbed into the surrounding eu countries.
Once the funding stops it’s game over for Ukraine.
Or a combination with a big DMZ between the new Russian oblasts and whatever is left of Ukraine or maybe it is Poland, etc.
There will never be a DMZ.
Well if you say so...
Usually a DMZ type situation is due in part to there being an actual stalemate. Based on what we are able to see as far as military strength on each side, such a situation is unlikely to occur. I also doubt that the Russian public will settle for some sort or “agreement to cease fire” when they have sacrificed their blood. I live in the USA and even from where I sit, it’s a virus that NATO etc has been trying to Balkanize Russia for decades. IT has to be crystal clear to the average Russian that they will not stop voluntarily.
I can't see Russia wanting to take the western part of Ukraine (Galecia), because it is so very anti-Russian. I don't know about Kiev/Kyiv
I live in non-NATO Austria (I'm American) with family (in-laws), friends and business in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. I agree about NATO. We're all paying higher oil and especially gas prices thanks to this NATO provoked war, and the US/Norway/? blowing up Nord Stream. NATO is (IMO) a dead man walking at this point. There are a huge number of EU politicians whose careers are tied to NATO, but this war - and particularly Nordstream AFTER the sanctions that only hurt the average EU resident - made it crystal clear that the US and NATO are not here to defend the EU, they are here to defend US business interests.
I don't read/speak Russian, nor do I know much of anything even indirectly about the Russian domestic mood. From what I understand (with big grains of salt) the average Russian is not feeling the war so much. Many people (not just in Russia) understand that the US/NATO has been trying to destroy everything pro-Russian in/around Europe for a very long time. The Serbs for sure.
The hard-core Nazis in Ukraine are not going to settle unless they are decimated to the point of powerlessness. I don't know how long that takes, but eventually Ukraine will collapse. The war is not really a stalemate now. Russia is just letting Ukraine "punch itself out" before going on the attack. I don't have a good feel for how war-weary Russia is.
I hold the opinion that the Polish border will be moving east. Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will be getting their fair share as well. "Peace-keeping" missions to deter further Ruskie aggression with "a wink and a nod".
Then Poland and Slovakia will be at war with Russia because those lands have been earned in Russian blood and if Poland and Slovakia want to play silly games they will be gone. I have said, and I am correct, the West shall never give up because the West is controlled by the US that doesn't give a damn about Europe except as a way to weaken Russia and therefore will keep pushing their vassals in Europe to attack Russia with terrorists, financially etc etc etc and so Russia will be forced to save ALL of Western Europe from the new Nazi state forming in North America as we write. These are the preliminary motions to a war in North America that will end that evil hegemony once and for all.
I don't think Putin cares about the other 4 nations reclaiming territory Stalin forced them to give up.
We (the US) are in a heap of trouble economically, diplomatically and culturally. Beyond a global nuke hellscape we are losing our ability to project power through intimidation or force.
I am sure we can still crush Haiti and liberate Bermuda from the UK all in the same day and that is about it.
I don't think he cares either but he had better start caring because if not it is going to make this a lot harder for Russia.
I doubt the US is going to be able to persuade any other NATO member beyond our two most faithful hounds, Canada and UK, and maybe the insignificant Baltic states to continue being stupid.
Silly games and silly prizes is a kind way to describe WEF, EU and NATO's effeteness.
they are taking Kiev. Russia's birthplace. You think they are leaving it to the fascists?
Once Kharkov and Odessa is taken Ukraine will collapse. Then they will get Kiev by default without any destruction. That’s a better plan. No sense to turn Kiev into Bakhmut or Mariupol.
Yes, I do. The Haiti of Europe will need a capitol to continue money laundering operations.
Ok, so then what? They wait for remilitarization of the rump remaining so that this whole war scenario WILL be repeated again in the near future? No, that’s not a reasonable solution, just wishful thinking on your part. Unconditional surrender is the only viable option.
My Potato-in-Chief's regime may or may not have anything to say that anyone can understand until it is carefully translated by the MSM. As for an active response, probably assist Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland get their "peace-keeping" missions in place so BlackRock can salvage a little something for it's investors. I am sure cash for rebuilding will be made available. Everyone enjoys a nice infrastructure grift.
I'd say no negotiations with Israel are doable at this point either. Israel seems pretty agreement incapable too, not because they go back on their deals but more that they don't wish to negotiate about anything in the first place.
And they think this is their chance to ethnically cleanse the stolen land. They are in for a rude shock.
Israel is pursuing a "Final Solution to the Palestinian Question" which means mass expulsions of most Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Those that remain in Gaza will be exterminated by the IDF under the guise of "collateral damage" incurred by fighting Hamas. The US is fully complicit in the Final Solution, but the rest of the Muslim world likely won't sit by and watch this new Nakba Holocaust.
They mostly just want to push them all into South Gaza first, and then they will push them into the Sinai. The Genocide Jews have been pretty explicit with this plan. The current genocide is to terrorize the Palestinians into heading to the south and then to leaving for Gaza.
This is exactly what the Genocide Jews did in 1948! They terrorized people into leaving and then stole their land. The Nakba never ended. Zionist ideology is based on continuous Nakba until the land is cleared of non-Jews. You have to understand how these people think. And I assure you most Israeli Jews are out and out fascists, and they will only get worse and even more fascist in the future. As an antifascist I have nothing but hatred for these Jewish fash!
"but the rest of the Muslim world likely won't sit by and watch this new Nakba Holocaust."
That's exactly what they are doing. (((Egypt))), (((Jordan))), and (((Saudi Arabia))) are actually HELPING the Genocide Jews in this war by shooting down Houthi missiles.
"The US is fully complicit in the Final Solution."
Of course the (((US))) and some of the (((West))) has signed on to the Nakba of Gazans to Sinai.
Robert:
You wrote "The current genocide is to terrorize the Palestinians into heading to the south and then to leaving for Gaza."
Yes. But Egypt has stated in the clearest terms that they are not going to solve the "Palestinian Question" for J'salem by admitting Millions of Gaza residents.. So what's the fallback plan?
The alternative to expulsion is to kill the Palestinians in Gaza. That will be done by fighting an all out war "against Hamas" in a heavily populated urban environment. This war will create 2.5 million deaths labelled as "collateral damage". This is not a surmise on my part... a "expel 'em or kill 'em" Nakba 2-Final Solution has been articulated by the highest levels of strategic planning in Israel with the (unfortunate) support of the majority of Israelis. Such plan has been in the works since the mid- 1940s.
Good God that's terrifying.
I know right? How dare they object to constant frequent barrages of rockets, missiles, and fanatical fools. They should just take it and continue on.
Yeah. The Palestinians should peacefully disappear and let their homes, culture and property be expropriated and annihilated by European colonial invaders.
The Genocide Jews started this whole thing. Those bottle rockets barely kill one soul. Boo hoo! Poor Jews! Poor genociders! The victims of your genocide are shooting bottle rockets at you!
Another Jew rat crawls out of the ghetto's gutter.
we all appreciate fact, your statement is a lie, behind your lie is a bigger lie, a lie that has been poisoning humanity for far too long
behind that lie is an even greater lie, a great big fat one, here, from the horses mouth:
https://www.ahlcglobal.com/blogs/seeing-through-the-veil/hebrews-are-not-jews
and the crucial reference
"..They who "say they are Hebrew, and are not, but are the synagogue of Satan...."
your statement has either come from ignorance... or you already know it, which is the more likely, in which case your statement was an act of phishing, to shall we say "test the water"
consider the water tested, so many are coming forward and understanding the lie, of who resides behind the worlds ills and what must be done to prevent further ills being put upon us
in the deeper meaning of "Apokolypse" strongs concordance states "the removal of the veil of deception from the eyes of the Gentiles"
who? might decieve the Gentiles.....
we note too the request by israyhell to destroy Amalek, a request of the West for Consent, knowing full well We are all Amalek, sneaky little fuckers...
Anyone truly interested in knowing All the Truth might search avidly for the huge file known as "Europa" the full extend of the "bolshevik/jew" revolution, wwI and II and so on through the "banking deception" to present day
further reading can be had at "hidden in the crag" where detailed analysis and study of the red heifer/burnt offering which will attempt to create the conditions for seating satans representative on earth in an attempt to cast dominion over all...
i shit ye not, the hour is very late, but many are waking up, so "niemeyer" consider your self informed, ta,ta 4 now
Israel's strategy is getting forced to the negotiating table, then stall. "What have you got to offer."
It's worse than that. They have been insisting for two decades now that "There is no partner to negotiate with." Supposedly even the sellout PA is too radical and insane for the Jews to deal with. Actually the Genocide Jews hate the PA more than anyone else because the PA is so reasonable. They only want fanatical, violent enemies like Hamas so they can demonize them.
The only alternative being the weakening of US/NATO/G7/EU to a degree that they have other problems than instigating conflicts for at least a few decades.
The people of the former Ukraine have suffered enough and would still suffer under those collapsing Western regimes as they use the people of the former Ukraine to play silly games to the bitter end of their regime's bloodlines so I say bring the former Ukrainians back into the Russian fold. They are like lost sheep that Russia is bringing home. If some want to go down the plughole with Western Europe they can always just leave, no-one is stopping them.
They will keep suffering until they grow some intelligence and personal power. If not, they will continue to be slaves and nothing good happens to slaves. It’s all choice.
The "West" has been drinking the poison of Financialization for several decades, reaching top speed in 2009, where the Financial Criminals were bailed out by the jingo of Too Big To Fail as they stole hundreds of Billions from the working poor.
Amazing how passionate people are about the Israel/Palestine thing, this is one of the reasons I suggested to not cover it at all. Anyway, I prefer the long form format of your reports and would prefer they stay that way rather than moving to the Twitter cesspool. Perhaps the quick fix people can follow you there, but you continue to keep these write-ups as they are?
Watching the Ukraine slowly wither is very heartening, happy days, finally!
Fully agree.
Agree, as well.
Gonna jump on and agree as well. The entire conflict was weaponized from the outset and is being used to sow more and more dischord.
Plus what’s the really read about?
Yes, please keep the long-rwad style!
Having an alternative to being "Parler'd" makes sense, but Twitter is an emotional Yakfest.
These (((reactionaries))) on here don't want it covered because (((Republicans))) and (((MAGA types))) love the Genocide Jews! Only 6% of (((Republicans))) oppose the Genocide Jews right now.
I don't mind the long form updates, but I do need to carve out 15 min or so to be able to read them.
I suppose if you cut the length in half but made them twice as often, would be good for flow and readability.
No. no. no. no. do not encourage any change of format.
I find very, very few enjoyable, literate, trustworthy, informative, sensible intelligent sources. More and more I value Simplicius for being what he is as he is.
My eyes light up when I see he's posted again.
They cast around like a dog viewing an empty bowl when I reach the end...
"No. no. no. no. do not encourage any change of format. " !!!!
"No. no. no. no. do not encourage any change of format. " !!!!
there, i've said it :)
Like I said I don't mind the long form, and am a paying sub to both his substacks. But he asked our opinion
I don't always agree with the analyses, BUT that's ok. I don't always agree with myself all the time.
I do like things that make me question my own assumptions, and these long-form articles do accomplish that.
you don't have 15 minutes?
Or you could cut it in half when reading?
What is the difference/difficulty?
I prefer to read his articles in one sitting? and... from my laptop too. Shocking right, should I ask the internet for permission?
Long form is fine. Catering to the ever shrinking attention span is for the birds. Plus, one can always go back and read the rest later....heck this platform does it automatically !
Ah so you're not pro Israel enough! Just analysing and reporting in an unbiased manner is not good enough!
You bad!
Sounds like a great way to weed out the isreal firsters ....
'We are not ready to give up our freedom to this f**king terrorist Putin. That's it. That's why we are fighting.'
But this a'hole is not fighting. Neither is Arestovych, who is in all likelihood a thoroughly sadistic P.O.S. Zelensky would probably be terrified if he spent even one day in the frontline on the receiving end of Russia's attacks.
Have you noticed that the exterminationist real Nazi Ukrainians and the Nazi-like exterminationist thought of the Genocide Jews is more or less identical? Or how about the Nazi-like exterminationism of ISIS and Al Qaeda? Or the Nazi-like exterminationist mindset of the death squad rightwing dictatorships we supported over the years?
I think America just loves genocidal, Nazi-like people with exterminationist mindsets.
Americans are simply a genocidal people. Americans love genocide!
Why? Perhaps it is rooted in our history.
I would disagree with your comment. Most Americans are not given to hurting others.
63% of Americans (83% of Americans if a vote were taken) support the Genocide Jews' war in Israel.
71% support the Ukrainian Nazis' genocidal war in Ukraine.
Most supported the death squad dictators who massacred over a million in the Cold War.
Apparently most Americans support the US presence in Syria and support for genocidal Al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria.
You can argue that they don't think it's genocide, but it's obvious that it is.
We are NOT good people. We are NOT a good country. Furthermore it's dubious that we've ever been either one. Face it the country was founded on genocide, and that worked itself right into our very soul, where the weight of history continues to drive us forwards, blindly.
My father always told me (since the sixties), the USA was born out of violence, has been violent since then, and will end in violence.
Name a World impact country that isn't. Although I disagree vehemently with the 90's forward bent of the constant interference of U.S. policy.
Conflict is human, but there are degrees. Can you honestly say that the USA’s exporting of war is not superlative. Compare it to Thailand for example....
China. Europe. The Arab World. Japan. South Korea. Taiwan. Russia. Iran.
Thank you. That is so beautiful. I've been resisting that idea forever now because it's been weaponized by SJW idiots, but after thinking it over, I'm afraid you are right. I'm still a patriot. I love my country because I want us to stop doing that. I'm not comfortable being an America-hater. It doesn't feel good.
Wrong. It is a sadistic aggressive society.
Ignorance could be another word to describe. A country without a conscience. A country of non thinkers... Milgram proved it.
Isn't every country like this?
Americans may love to dish it out, but they sure can't take it.
Witness the mawkish maudlin spectacles over 9/11.
The USA does not have living memory of the horrors of war. With due respect to those who have combat in recent theaters, that is not real warfare.
The mercs who went to the Ukraine to do a bit of LARPing will tell you all about it, if they are still alive.
A Green Beret Vietnam vet and subsequent member of the Communist Party, USA told me that American casualties in Vietnam would be an order of magnitude greater than they were without helicopter MEDEVAC.
This is part of it. Europe is antiwar in general because they have experienced it first hand. We never have.
Advertised as the Vestal Virgin. In fact, a tired old Whore.
"Americans may love to dish it out, but they sure can't take it"
We are BULLIES. All bullies are like this. Remember back to your school days.
I think you are correct. Look at the delight we take in firing employees. 90% of the people I have seen fired were not really fired for cause. They were fired because the boss didn't like them.
I was on a forum for people from all over and they were discussing an article about why Americans get fired and the Europeans were all saying, "Damn you fire people for this petty bullshit? What are you, a society of maniacs?"
We are.
Remember how popular Trump's show The Apprentice was? Remember how the country loved to hear him utter, "You're fired!"
Until it starts happening in America
States and empires like right-wing irregulars because they are easy to use.
The U.S. and it's policy have been run by the left for 30 years, the fact that a few of them claim to be right is merely kabuki.
Is that why it has allowed millions of Americans to live under bridges? Starve to death? Die outside hospitals? Stop messing about.
There is no "left" in US politics, FFS. Democrats are on the left?
Murikans must be the most politically ignorant people in the world.
Apart from the late and lamented Gore Vidal and the very much alive Noam Chomsky and the highly splendid Norman Finkelstein.
Not so sure about Chomsky. I'm in the camp that believes he is controlled opposition and a gate keeper for the Occupiers.
Chomsky is (was?) a self-declared anarcho-syndicalist...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-syndicalism
The practice seemed to have worked in the 50 year takeover US University Campuses, though I would not describe it as being in the interests of the proletariat.
Democrats are shitlibs at best. Shitlibs are NOT on the Left.
Liberalism is fascism in a cardigan.
"The U.S. and it's policy have been run by the left for 30 years"
LOL you think shitlibs are the Left. You know how much we real Lefties hate shitlibs?
Our foreign and domestic policy has been run by the "Left?" LOL first of all there's not much of a Left in this country in the first place. Take that comment around and ask a bunch of Lefties if it's true and watch them all laugh in your faces.
It's been hardline conservatism plus crappy shitlibs who aren't even on the Left.
Manifest Destiny, 64-40 or fight, Spanish-American War (the Maine), the Mexican War. And these were "local" fights of aggression and conquest.
My Country Right or Wrong.
It never stopped. True, pure imperialism just warped into neocolonialism and the imperialism of force and threats. Nothing much changed. Manifest Destiny and the Monroe Doctrine are ONGOING. Shitlibs like Mather LOVE the Monroe Doctrine and are always talking about "our backyard." That horrible phrase has never disappeared from our crap culture and the imperialist press uses it all the time.
The Monroe Doctrine never ended!
You think Ukraine has freedom? Lol. Now that’s funny.
How did you like that freedom during the Covid lockdowns for three years where Ukraine perpetrated the wef agenda? You call that freedom?
great artricle thankyou so much. Wish I could help financially..but not so. Would love to read lots and lots of what you have to say about Israel and Palestine...thank God you didn't take Israel's side - Borzzikman has been putting out good videos but would love to read what you can collect.
Yep. I feel exactly the same. I can't even spare $10 and have not. Have never, I think, not to Simplicius.
I am a busy man. I iust drove up to Bunnings and got an M6 UNC fine thread screw to replace a missing one in a clapped out piece of junk office chair we'll never use again. ( had to buy a bunch in a 'blister pack', you know how it is these days).
Such is my twisted mind and so extensive is my available time that I enjoy 'fixing' such things so's they go to the dump 'fixed'.
Petrol, time, screws and the p.o.s. el cheapo garden hose I picked up on impulse while I was there ( 6 years warranty ? did you ever know a garden hose last 6 years ?).
Cost me a fair bit in the end.
Coming up $20 or so. If Simplicius knew just how many such expenses we have to meet on a daily basis, just how great the demands are upon our funds, he probably wouldn't be so insistent in his importuning. If he is. Is he? I don't actually remember seeing anything.
But, yep, I take your point. I feel exactly the same way. I'd love to help financially but....
The number of workers in the US having to take multiple jobs just to keep the lights on and food on the table is at an all-time high now. So, I completely understand what you're saying.
I know what you're saying is false because it is axiomatic that the pinnacle of human enlightenment, freedom, compassion, fair play, equality, etc. etc.. is right there in the great and glorious (hats off, please and be upstanding) 'United States of America'.
So I fear you're probably a fifth columnist spreading fear and dissent. Shame on you.
If you will when you can then that's enough. I didn't know that hosepipes had a finite life. I thought that they went on forever.
That's strange isn't it? The subjectivity of the human experience. My take has been that no garden hose can ever be trusted to deliver when required and must never be left alone with the water switched on under any circumstances...
It has never occurred to me to suspect hosepipes of political subversion. Unless your comment is a metaphor for politicians. ;O)
This is all so strange. 50 countries + Ukraine deciding acceptable negotiation terms without including Russia in the conversation... Arestovich under the belief that NATO membership is still on the table if Ukraine concedes the Donbas, and that the Russians will be stupid enough to sign a Minsk 3 in a couple of years if they don't... US planners believing they can orchestrate a freezing of the conflict to retain control over a rump Ukraine that they can pillage and re-arm for a future assault on Russia...
When are these clueless idiots going to grasp the reality they're facing?
It’s all propaganda. That’s the only thing Ukraine has left.
They're as deluded as the Genocide Jews.
Zionist antisemites aren't Jews. Jews despise zionism because it is antisemitic.
As they say, the west spends so much time negotiating among themselves they often forget to include the other side.
It is strange but in no way unusual.
Mercouris/Christoforou have noted repeatedly that the West spends more time achieving consensus on a "solution" internally than actually talking with the other side.
This "frozen conflict" nonsense has all the hallmarks of the same delusional decision making/diplomatic process.
Will someone please explain to me the rationale Zelensky and all those who think the same way have for declaring they 'are not prepared to give our freedom to Putin' ?
Please.
I simply do not understand. What 'freedom' do they think Putin or anyone else is threatening?
Do they not realise they have been engaged on a civil war of aggression and invasion since 2014 with a declared aim of ethnic cleansing?
What have I got wrong?
Isn't that the way it is?
Where do they manufacture a threat 'to their freedom' from out of that?
They don't simply mean literally the supposed 'freedom to conquer and ethnically cleanse our own brothers' do they?
The 'freedom' to wage civil war on ethnic grounds?
I've lost the plot here and it is rather important. Presumably the half million dead Kiev Ukrainians died because they shared Zelensky's point of view which I totally miss.
I think we all ought to have it clear.
We all ought to see very clearly the two 'sides': those who think Zelensky's way and those that cannot see the sense of that at all.
Right now Zelensky for all he is losing the war and his nation and his people etc. etc... is winning the propaganda war hands down. Easily. In spades. Doubled and redoubled. Because EVERYONE seems to think that's what he's engaged upon: a legitimate attempt to preserve his legitimate freedoms.
I simply cannot understand. I can't make my mind reach far out and come up with an explanation.
I have no idea.
What the hell is he talking about?
I
This is the primary fig leaf that the West has for its involvement (and for actual Ukrainians to support the war). Any hint at real reasoning would see a total collapse of political support in NATO, both for Ukraine and the current EU leadership.
It’s all nonsense. There’s no freedom in Ukraine. When Russia manages their part of the country there will be peace and stability. That will be an improvement over the corrupt, retarded Ukrainian gov that’s not competent enough to manage a bubble gum machine without destroying it in the process.
First: you assume Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. They are in fact losing it. Remember the end goal: it's not to convince people that "Russia bad", it's to secure weapons and money for the war. And they are demonstrably failing at that.
Second: you assume that Zelensky is acting in the best interest of Ukraine, which is again demonstrably not true. He would have settled this entire saga pre 2022, with zero bloodshed. He clearly doesn't give a fuck whatsoever. He's just playing a role. The interesting thing for him is how does he get out of this without being whacked by the SBU/Azov/Right Sector, the CIA, or someone else. If I was Zelensky, my #1 priority is >How do I not die in a helicopter "accident"?<
How to win the war, or preserve the country is waay down the list.
Are you addressing me?
I do not assume Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. I point out that it has won dramatically in making the whole western world couch the narrative in terms of 'Ukraine v Russia'.
I will not try to spell it out again You either see it or you don't.
I have never assumed Zelensky to be acting in the best interests of Ukraine and have never stopped attempting to point out how ludicrous it is to pretend it is in the best interests of Ukraine to have 500,000 of them die. I have a record of invoking Viktor Orban's remarks on the task of a politician in that regard.
Of course he's playing a role.
I don't know what interests him. Self preservation and egoboost we can assume, it's what interests most of us.
Thank you for the revelations regarding how you would think were you him.
I can't speak to how far 'down the list' preserving the country is for him. On current performance I'd incline to think he's not rational enough to have it on the list anywhere: if you cannot see the paradox in fighting for a nation to the last man I don't think you can see anything.
You have a gift. Whatever you do to broaden your reach is a benefit to all, not least of all truth and debate.
Nevertheless, please keep your long form analysis. And back it up, (just incase) and as an investment in the future. You have the makings of one hell-of-a book. After this tragic horror passes, you will be in one of the best positions to offer a thorough postmortem.
Followed on X. First account to actually follow! (only recently joined X)
On negotiations with Russia, I'd say Russia has to hammer long and hard on the fact that Minsk was a ruse. Loudly and constantly, otherwise we'll see a lot of "Blame Russia for not reaching an agreement" (We'll see that anyway)
Perhaps if Russian charges $300 Billion just to sit down in the same room, the US might flinch.
The whole issue of Nordstream is not moot. Germany needs a security/peace agreement with the US too!
Once again, thanks very much indeed for a great analysis of the situation.
Do you think that Russia could retain control of Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast in the face of a western funded insurgency campaign with some sort of Ukrainian government in exile to ‘legitimise’ it?
Thanks again.
"Do you think that Russia could retain control of Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast in the face of a western funded insurgency campaign with some sort of Ukrainian government in exile to ‘legitimise’ it?"
If we look at successful insurgencies in recent years, one thing they all have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen is something like 19 years of age.
The median age in Ukraine was over 40, and that before the war. The median age of Ukrainian soldiers is now some over 43.
Guerilla war is a young man's game.
Good point, Feral!
It's why Palestinians will win back their country. Israel's full of boomer retirees.
Great update, but this section sorely misses the mark, IMO:
"...For U.S. planners, it’s much better to cut their losses and freeze this thing at a point where the U.S. can still retain control over a fairly dangerous Ukrainian rump-state that can be parasitized to continue wounding, destabilizing, and fencing in Russia perennially. Plus, it gives them the chance to massively rearm and refit Ukraine for the future, while stripping it of its assets to enrich Western stakeholders, allowing them to relaunch the war at a future date to continue bleeding Russia. If Zelensky takes it “all the way” he risks the total capture of Ukraine by Russian forces..."
What you articulate above is exactly why *RUSSIA* will take this all the way (regardless of what Zelensky does), why they'll achieve a total victory (regardless of the cost and time it takes), and why US aligned interests won't have control over any part of rump Ukraine.
OM....... “if it adopts a very defensive posture, the AFU can still likely hold out for quite a while—at least 1 to 1.5 years”!
Only the direct injection of Western manpower would enable extending things that long.
1) Direct intervention - but I really doubt this. It would be suicidal.
2) Volunteerism ala the Spanish Civil War - not too many in the West ready to face Russian tanks and artillery by choice, though. I have had no problem going to war before but I wouldn't do it for this bad cause.
They are having a recruiting problem. Without bodies, the front collapses. Think about it for a moment - if they had hope they wouldn't be talking about failure now, because if I were about to be conscripted, and I were told that things were going badly, i'd flee myself. No one wants to be the last killed in a war.
Any penny you get is well earned! People like you are changing the world. Like Scott Ritter keeps repeating. Knowledge is power!
Regarding Scott's position on Israhell, in this interview his position unequivocally is that he hopes the IDF lose:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MnwX49UDiM
Wow, he really did.