Ryan is Australia's Ben Hodges; the American empire's military is an intellectual black hole. I guess he is not as plainly inane as Hodges, but if he's just noticed Russia is waging an attritional war, he is maybe not in the same alternative universe as the American, but merely a time warp about a year behind the rest of us outside the American echo-chamber
I couldn’t agree more with the comment about Ryan.
I wouldn’t give a Cent for a comment by any current or retired NATO/AUKUS Senior Officer because they all come from the same intellectual pedigree.
The Australian contribution to the “forever wars” in the “sandbox” was minor & ineffectual to say the least with one caveat - that of their Special Forces - who are now being crucified through a Legal Investigation being lead by the leadership of the Australian Ministry of Defence itself.
It is this senior leadership who with full knowledge repeatedly deployed the Australian Special Forces & was fully aware of everything that occurred during operations both in Iraq, Afghanistan & other operational theatres.
I know...I worked operationally with those men.
It’s the same type of Kangaroo Court type of justice that occurred in the U.K. led by the MoD against some of the very best I personally know.
The "evolution" canard is just another straw man constructed to cover grossness. As for decision making, I recall a Putin discussion @2016 or so where he said those on the spot need to be allowed the ability to make the choices since they knew the most about the immediate situation; so, the change began during the Syrian op. Another difference is Russian troops live long enough to learn and perform new tactics enabling them to live longer while Ukies die before they have any such opportunity.
Apr 21, 2023·edited Apr 21, 2023Liked by Simplicius
I see absolutely nothing in this supposed Russian tactical evolution that is surprising or unpredictable. Semi-detached combined-arms infantry assault groups utilizing shock firepower, privileged fire support, and echelon tactics is an EXACT description of Ludendorff's solution to trench warfare on the Western front in 1917 (where it worked well, despite the fact that Germany lost the war due to industrial overmatch), and to proclaim this comes as some kind of game-changing surprise you didn't foresee and is now changing the balance of power on the ground is to admit not that the enemy is evolving but that your own strategic command is staffed by people incapable of even the meanest understanding.
Apr 21, 2023·edited Apr 22, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Early on in this conflict I was consuming huge amounts of news from a variety of sources in an attempt to figure out what was actually going on. Digging into the Battle of Kiev finally made it clear that most of the MSM reporting had no basis in reality.
From wikipedia the RF had 15,000 to 30,000 troops and killed 89 civilians in Kiev, 167 Ukrainian troops, and damaged 162 builings in Kiev. There are basically two ways to take a city in modern warfare, either flatten it first with artillery or attack with a much larger force and still take heavy casualties. 30,000 isn't enough to storm a city of 3 million and only 162 damaged buildings means that there was no attempt to flatten it first. It is simply not possible to reconcile the MSM narrative with its own facts.
The MSM is in the process of updating its narrative, but it has to do so in a such way that its earlier narrative still looks plausible. It can't just come out and say "So, we were lying to you all last year. Here's what is actually going on."
Thanks for another excellent and detailed post. Very informative.
Speaking of "pedantic", the correct spelling is "planing" glide bombs, not "planning". I only mention it because I have seen the misspelling on several posts now.
Truly masterful work. I'd like to add a little color here. I was Southern white trash trailer park. My family did have a "in" with Gene Stipe/Carl Albert Dixie Mafia and I was told I could get a West Point allotment. Letting you know how truly stupid I was, I said no, and I wanted to mustang up thru the ranks. This was in the late 80's and it was still really Post Vietnam RIF land. I got in, made it up to E-5 and got some trigger time in South America and some life time experience in Germany and Turkey where I learned to make money. But that is another subject. And I got the fuck out after one tour.
Reference the Russian Army adapting. Every peace time Army is a joke. Killers are not the same folks that make it to First Sergeant and Sgt Major when the shit hits the fan. They are just different jobs. And technology is evolving at a screaming rate. One that far surpasses military procurement boondoggles of either Russian or American MIC theft factories.
The Russians are not chess Grand Masters. And neither are the Americans. But the Russians have shown the ability to learn and adapt. While my erstwhile West Point classmates might have beens are living in a fantasy land of epic proportions. They are simply believing the Ukrainian intelligence and their own ego.
My country has not ever actually fought a war since the Civil War. We entered WW1 when it was really over. We landed in Normandy when Germany was exhausted. Korea was a debacle. Vietnam was a loss, and so on.
Make no mistake, we have killers. We are good at it, and we enjoy it. But we don't have a lot. And enlistment rates are dropping. Excuse my blatant racism here, but white men are your killers. I am. And white men in the US are checking out. You can't tell Southern crackers to take a vaccine and be nice to the tranny, and you still are not going to be promoted. Cause the white heterosexual thing and expect them to join.
And Russia is learning who their killers are. They are honing them. They are testing their weapons and finding out what works. Oh yeah. And Russians are white killers also. We're fucking good at it.
And also, Raytheon fucks the Army for every dollar. Russian military procurement is probably just as corrupt in its way. BUT, I have a feeling when Putin calls and ask where the fucking glide bombs are? The midnight oil gets turned on.
Make no mistake. My country is invulnerable. No one can invade the USA. The South will rise again, and you will feel its wrath. But a land war in Europe? Against Russia? With long supply lines, and our allies the cucks of Europe? I cannot believe we are not walking away from this debacle right now. But that is the idiocy of the leadership of my country.
And that is the strength of Russia. Putin has his flaws. He ain't Jesus. But in the leadership pantheon of the current world? Christ, he does walk on water.
So, a rather rambling, arguably racist, and two beer rant. But your work truly touches me. And I wish my idiots would listen to it. I do not want my brothers in the Army dying in a war we cannot win. Supporting fucking Nazi's in Ukraine waving swastikas.
Oh, boy! I have laughed loudly when I read your quip....simply excellent - “This is in similar fashion to the tropes about “Russians learning how to use indoor plumbing”, etc.”. As always, thank you for your analysis.
Thank you for yet another insightful analysis. Feels like your mind is more rested and sharper today :)
Got nothing to add but this: never, ever, ever, EVER underestimate the power of latent racism. Recently, I saw an NHK (Japanese state TV) documentary on China's construction of artificial islands along the "seven dash" line. They had an American analyst on there who said something akin to "Yeah, we saw right from the beginning (via satellite photos) what they were doing, but we just figured the Chinese were too stupid to actually make it work, so we did nothing about it. And now it's too late."
Excellent article Simplicus. I have a question that is off topic. Could you in the future write and in depth article on why you think the US is heading to a second civil war. I’m American and I also have this feeling we are one contested election away from civil unrest and ultimately civil war.
Western arrogance is out of this world. I always love it especially when the media talk about Ukrainians being given NATO standard training, as though that is some gold standard. Given that no NATO country has fought a peer enemy in a land war since Korea or WW2 it is hard to see how this can possibly be the case. They simply do not know what the fighting in Ukraine entails so how can they train anyone for such a war?
My sense is that the Russian army that entered this conflict was at least as good as or better than any other army that exists on a man for man basis. No doubt they are now evolving. All wars seems to need this, however good you are to start with. A long time ago I read a book “Mud, Blood and Poppycock” by Gordon Corrigan about the evolution of the British Army in WW1. The 1914 infantry unit was composed almost 100% of riflemen trained as rapid fire marksmen because that had been a lesson from the Boer War, fought on open veldt against an enemy with only limited artillery. Artillerymen still thought too that direct fire was a good idea and machine guns were deployed sparingly. By 1918 the standard infantry unit and its equipment had changed radically and very few soldiers were pure riflemen whilst marksmanship and rapid rifle fire had been downgraded. At the same time, other arms of the service had expanded radically and tanks were being deployed routinely. It was a revolution. Other armies of the era went through similar changes, of course. Zero surprise if this war as the first one fought truly in the age of drones, mobile communication and networks is not leading to evolution and even revolution in how armies fight. Despite what the media says, the Russians seem very competent and able to perform effectively.
Like others commenting here, I would say I would be surprised if the Russian army was not adapting and learning after a year of war – as all armies do in these circumstances. Nevertheless the Z Company piece from our esteemed Australian hardly describes an earth shattering military revolution – and simply outlines a pretty standard arrangement of fire and storm groups plus support. If you can find an account of Russian small unit tactics in say Berlin in 1945 you would see parallels.
Back in the day we were told to fear and respect the Soviet Army. What has surprised me in this war has been the media and political portrayal of the Russians in starkly racist terms. From the start the media has reported that the stupid and vicious “Orcs” have been deliberately targeting civilians as they are too cowardly to actually fight the ubermensch of Ukraine, so prefer to commit war crimes in the brief times between retreats from the UAF blitzkrieg. Russia and the Russians have been characterised in much the same way that was done by the Nazis – and look what happened then. However the rabid and extreme reporting in the press highlighted to me that they were reporting propaganda not news. Whilst I believe I can see through the BS, alas too many people cannot. It does appear to be official western policy to regard the Russians as sub-human in a very overt and explicit way. I find that deeply disturbing on many levels.
Western experts covering this war have generally (with notable exceptions) treated the Russian army and its capabilities as a joke. My take is that it had and continues to have problems but the hard school of war is ironing those out. Mistakes and disasters will still happen. War is a messy business and your enemy gets a say. However at the end of this the West – having had a cunning plan to embroil Russia in an unwinnable shooting and financial war, deplete its military and over turn its government – may well find the opposite result. The Russian military will be larger than before, combat experienced and newly equipped, with their own MIC geared up. Meanwhile it has kicked off a global economic realignment and damaged wester economies, particularly in Europe. Maybe someone thought ““We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” Well, if you look at the world through a racist lens you get what you deserve.
Our media is awful - not just on the war - on anything that materially affects us and benefits the elites - ‘inflation is transitory’, ‘inflation is good for you’, ‘Europe is socialist so don’t use them as an example of sound social policies’, ‘lab leak is a conspiracy’, ‘vaccines have no side affects’, ‘Matt Taibbi lied to Congress’, ‘ ‘men can be women and women can be men,’ ‘hiring based on diversity is better than hiring based on competence’, ‘we can maintain our standard of life without any fossil fuels’, ‘Epstein committed suicide’ and on and on - I dare say the media isn’t incompetent, it’s deliberately complicit because in all cases, including the war, it’s not hard to see what’s really going on - or at least one can see enough to serious question the given narrative.
Ryan is Australia's Ben Hodges; the American empire's military is an intellectual black hole. I guess he is not as plainly inane as Hodges, but if he's just noticed Russia is waging an attritional war, he is maybe not in the same alternative universe as the American, but merely a time warp about a year behind the rest of us outside the American echo-chamber
I couldn’t agree more with the comment about Ryan.
I wouldn’t give a Cent for a comment by any current or retired NATO/AUKUS Senior Officer because they all come from the same intellectual pedigree.
The Australian contribution to the “forever wars” in the “sandbox” was minor & ineffectual to say the least with one caveat - that of their Special Forces - who are now being crucified through a Legal Investigation being lead by the leadership of the Australian Ministry of Defence itself.
It is this senior leadership who with full knowledge repeatedly deployed the Australian Special Forces & was fully aware of everything that occurred during operations both in Iraq, Afghanistan & other operational theatres.
I know...I worked operationally with those men.
It’s the same type of Kangaroo Court type of justice that occurred in the U.K. led by the MoD against some of the very best I personally know.
Per Terram
The "evolution" canard is just another straw man constructed to cover grossness. As for decision making, I recall a Putin discussion @2016 or so where he said those on the spot need to be allowed the ability to make the choices since they knew the most about the immediate situation; so, the change began during the Syrian op. Another difference is Russian troops live long enough to learn and perform new tactics enabling them to live longer while Ukies die before they have any such opportunity.
I see absolutely nothing in this supposed Russian tactical evolution that is surprising or unpredictable. Semi-detached combined-arms infantry assault groups utilizing shock firepower, privileged fire support, and echelon tactics is an EXACT description of Ludendorff's solution to trench warfare on the Western front in 1917 (where it worked well, despite the fact that Germany lost the war due to industrial overmatch), and to proclaim this comes as some kind of game-changing surprise you didn't foresee and is now changing the balance of power on the ground is to admit not that the enemy is evolving but that your own strategic command is staffed by people incapable of even the meanest understanding.
GodSpeed, Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙
Early on in this conflict I was consuming huge amounts of news from a variety of sources in an attempt to figure out what was actually going on. Digging into the Battle of Kiev finally made it clear that most of the MSM reporting had no basis in reality.
From wikipedia the RF had 15,000 to 30,000 troops and killed 89 civilians in Kiev, 167 Ukrainian troops, and damaged 162 builings in Kiev. There are basically two ways to take a city in modern warfare, either flatten it first with artillery or attack with a much larger force and still take heavy casualties. 30,000 isn't enough to storm a city of 3 million and only 162 damaged buildings means that there was no attempt to flatten it first. It is simply not possible to reconcile the MSM narrative with its own facts.
The MSM is in the process of updating its narrative, but it has to do so in a such way that its earlier narrative still looks plausible. It can't just come out and say "So, we were lying to you all last year. Here's what is actually going on."
Thanks for another excellent and detailed post. Very informative.
Speaking of "pedantic", the correct spelling is "planing" glide bombs, not "planning". I only mention it because I have seen the misspelling on several posts now.
Well these are the same people who think that the Red Army human waved itself to Berlin because the blocking detachments wouldn’t allow retreat.
Truly masterful work. I'd like to add a little color here. I was Southern white trash trailer park. My family did have a "in" with Gene Stipe/Carl Albert Dixie Mafia and I was told I could get a West Point allotment. Letting you know how truly stupid I was, I said no, and I wanted to mustang up thru the ranks. This was in the late 80's and it was still really Post Vietnam RIF land. I got in, made it up to E-5 and got some trigger time in South America and some life time experience in Germany and Turkey where I learned to make money. But that is another subject. And I got the fuck out after one tour.
Reference the Russian Army adapting. Every peace time Army is a joke. Killers are not the same folks that make it to First Sergeant and Sgt Major when the shit hits the fan. They are just different jobs. And technology is evolving at a screaming rate. One that far surpasses military procurement boondoggles of either Russian or American MIC theft factories.
The Russians are not chess Grand Masters. And neither are the Americans. But the Russians have shown the ability to learn and adapt. While my erstwhile West Point classmates might have beens are living in a fantasy land of epic proportions. They are simply believing the Ukrainian intelligence and their own ego.
My country has not ever actually fought a war since the Civil War. We entered WW1 when it was really over. We landed in Normandy when Germany was exhausted. Korea was a debacle. Vietnam was a loss, and so on.
Make no mistake, we have killers. We are good at it, and we enjoy it. But we don't have a lot. And enlistment rates are dropping. Excuse my blatant racism here, but white men are your killers. I am. And white men in the US are checking out. You can't tell Southern crackers to take a vaccine and be nice to the tranny, and you still are not going to be promoted. Cause the white heterosexual thing and expect them to join.
And Russia is learning who their killers are. They are honing them. They are testing their weapons and finding out what works. Oh yeah. And Russians are white killers also. We're fucking good at it.
And also, Raytheon fucks the Army for every dollar. Russian military procurement is probably just as corrupt in its way. BUT, I have a feeling when Putin calls and ask where the fucking glide bombs are? The midnight oil gets turned on.
Make no mistake. My country is invulnerable. No one can invade the USA. The South will rise again, and you will feel its wrath. But a land war in Europe? Against Russia? With long supply lines, and our allies the cucks of Europe? I cannot believe we are not walking away from this debacle right now. But that is the idiocy of the leadership of my country.
And that is the strength of Russia. Putin has his flaws. He ain't Jesus. But in the leadership pantheon of the current world? Christ, he does walk on water.
So, a rather rambling, arguably racist, and two beer rant. But your work truly touches me. And I wish my idiots would listen to it. I do not want my brothers in the Army dying in a war we cannot win. Supporting fucking Nazi's in Ukraine waving swastikas.
Oh, boy! I have laughed loudly when I read your quip....simply excellent - “This is in similar fashion to the tropes about “Russians learning how to use indoor plumbing”, etc.”. As always, thank you for your analysis.
Thank you for yet another insightful analysis. Feels like your mind is more rested and sharper today :)
Got nothing to add but this: never, ever, ever, EVER underestimate the power of latent racism. Recently, I saw an NHK (Japanese state TV) documentary on China's construction of artificial islands along the "seven dash" line. They had an American analyst on there who said something akin to "Yeah, we saw right from the beginning (via satellite photos) what they were doing, but we just figured the Chinese were too stupid to actually make it work, so we did nothing about it. And now it's too late."
Really. Video (in English) is here: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/tv/documentary/20220911/4001414/
Excellent article Simplicus. I have a question that is off topic. Could you in the future write and in depth article on why you think the US is heading to a second civil war. I’m American and I also have this feeling we are one contested election away from civil unrest and ultimately civil war.
Great article.
Western arrogance is out of this world. I always love it especially when the media talk about Ukrainians being given NATO standard training, as though that is some gold standard. Given that no NATO country has fought a peer enemy in a land war since Korea or WW2 it is hard to see how this can possibly be the case. They simply do not know what the fighting in Ukraine entails so how can they train anyone for such a war?
My sense is that the Russian army that entered this conflict was at least as good as or better than any other army that exists on a man for man basis. No doubt they are now evolving. All wars seems to need this, however good you are to start with. A long time ago I read a book “Mud, Blood and Poppycock” by Gordon Corrigan about the evolution of the British Army in WW1. The 1914 infantry unit was composed almost 100% of riflemen trained as rapid fire marksmen because that had been a lesson from the Boer War, fought on open veldt against an enemy with only limited artillery. Artillerymen still thought too that direct fire was a good idea and machine guns were deployed sparingly. By 1918 the standard infantry unit and its equipment had changed radically and very few soldiers were pure riflemen whilst marksmanship and rapid rifle fire had been downgraded. At the same time, other arms of the service had expanded radically and tanks were being deployed routinely. It was a revolution. Other armies of the era went through similar changes, of course. Zero surprise if this war as the first one fought truly in the age of drones, mobile communication and networks is not leading to evolution and even revolution in how armies fight. Despite what the media says, the Russians seem very competent and able to perform effectively.
Like others commenting here, I would say I would be surprised if the Russian army was not adapting and learning after a year of war – as all armies do in these circumstances. Nevertheless the Z Company piece from our esteemed Australian hardly describes an earth shattering military revolution – and simply outlines a pretty standard arrangement of fire and storm groups plus support. If you can find an account of Russian small unit tactics in say Berlin in 1945 you would see parallels.
Back in the day we were told to fear and respect the Soviet Army. What has surprised me in this war has been the media and political portrayal of the Russians in starkly racist terms. From the start the media has reported that the stupid and vicious “Orcs” have been deliberately targeting civilians as they are too cowardly to actually fight the ubermensch of Ukraine, so prefer to commit war crimes in the brief times between retreats from the UAF blitzkrieg. Russia and the Russians have been characterised in much the same way that was done by the Nazis – and look what happened then. However the rabid and extreme reporting in the press highlighted to me that they were reporting propaganda not news. Whilst I believe I can see through the BS, alas too many people cannot. It does appear to be official western policy to regard the Russians as sub-human in a very overt and explicit way. I find that deeply disturbing on many levels.
Western experts covering this war have generally (with notable exceptions) treated the Russian army and its capabilities as a joke. My take is that it had and continues to have problems but the hard school of war is ironing those out. Mistakes and disasters will still happen. War is a messy business and your enemy gets a say. However at the end of this the West – having had a cunning plan to embroil Russia in an unwinnable shooting and financial war, deplete its military and over turn its government – may well find the opposite result. The Russian military will be larger than before, combat experienced and newly equipped, with their own MIC geared up. Meanwhile it has kicked off a global economic realignment and damaged wester economies, particularly in Europe. Maybe someone thought ““We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” Well, if you look at the world through a racist lens you get what you deserve.
Our media is awful - not just on the war - on anything that materially affects us and benefits the elites - ‘inflation is transitory’, ‘inflation is good for you’, ‘Europe is socialist so don’t use them as an example of sound social policies’, ‘lab leak is a conspiracy’, ‘vaccines have no side affects’, ‘Matt Taibbi lied to Congress’, ‘ ‘men can be women and women can be men,’ ‘hiring based on diversity is better than hiring based on competence’, ‘we can maintain our standard of life without any fossil fuels’, ‘Epstein committed suicide’ and on and on - I dare say the media isn’t incompetent, it’s deliberately complicit because in all cases, including the war, it’s not hard to see what’s really going on - or at least one can see enough to serious question the given narrative.
Crocodile Dundee was cool. As for the western special forces… that’s all what’s left. A farce