Ryan is Australia's Ben Hodges; the American empire's military is an intellectual black hole. I guess he is not as plainly inane as Hodges, but if he's just noticed Russia is waging an attritional war, he is maybe not in the same alternative universe as the American, but merely a time warp about a year behind the rest of us outside the American echo-chamber
I couldn’t agree more with the comment about Ryan.
I wouldn’t give a Cent for a comment by any current or retired NATO/AUKUS Senior Officer because they all come from the same intellectual pedigree.
The Australian contribution to the “forever wars” in the “sandbox” was minor & ineffectual to say the least with one caveat - that of their Special Forces - who are now being crucified through a Legal Investigation being lead by the leadership of the Australian Ministry of Defence itself.
It is this senior leadership who with full knowledge repeatedly deployed the Australian Special Forces & was fully aware of everything that occurred during operations both in Iraq, Afghanistan & other operational theatres.
I know...I worked operationally with those men.
It’s the same type of Kangaroo Court type of justice that occurred in the U.K. led by the MoD against some of the very best I personally know.
Street level tools are the ones actually carrying out the extra-judicial killings tho, and many of them took pleasure in so doing. At least that's the case with the Americans I'm aware of. Can't see why it'd be any different for the Aussies, Brits, or anyone else.
Don't get me wrong, the high level perps giving the orders and frankly committing Australia's military to the theater should be prosecuted as vigorously as the low level guys, but that isn't how things happen in nations governed by men and not laws.
Crucified? Those criminal scum bags in the Australian SAS deserve to be charged and sentenced. Roberts-Smith is the perfect example of a wannabe Rambo, a shameless war criminal amd a disgusting example of both a soldier and a citizen.
Fuck them all. I hope their PTSD gives them forever nightmares.
There is a huge difference between the legal circumstances surrounding BRS & those individuals now under investigation as a result of the Brereton Report.
BRS is a self-publicist who frankly deserves everything that is coming his way.
Those who now face potential prosecution following the Brereton Enquiry do not deserve to be tarred with the same brush.
Just for the record...that’s where I stand.
You on the other hand, have probably never ever had to stand in harms way or do things that are beyond any normal human frame of reference.
Oh don't play the war hero with me you piece of shit war criminal cunt.
Your bullshit weakly tries to paint the SAS scum as poor done by victims. I have seen the video of the young Afghan lad executed like a dog. And the videos of other SAS scum mistreating Afghan fighters dead bodies. They are nothing but govt. sanctioned assassins and hopefully they will be sent to Ukraine where Russia will give them the send off they well deserve.
The SAS scum, and others committed war crimes in Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan.
I do hope our paths cross one day and I'll show what being in harm's way is all about.
Typical deadender unemployable loser that joins the army 'cos they are the only organisation that will hire lowlife filth.
interesting both military and gov wouldnt touch it as it was national tarnishing , everyone knew , but it was left for a few newspapers to do the investigations, by then the cat came out of the bag and military had to be pressured to step in ,. but remember the outrage when china did a meme about aussie troops in afghanistan? telling lies to hide a lie never works. and yeah i knew soldiers in afghanistan who talked openly about what constitures war crimes. they were very messed up by it all.
The "evolution" canard is just another straw man constructed to cover grossness. As for decision making, I recall a Putin discussion @2016 or so where he said those on the spot need to be allowed the ability to make the choices since they knew the most about the immediate situation; so, the change began during the Syrian op. Another difference is Russian troops live long enough to learn and perform new tactics enabling them to live longer while Ukies die before they have any such opportunity.
I see absolutely nothing in this supposed Russian tactical evolution that is surprising or unpredictable. Semi-detached combined-arms infantry assault groups utilizing shock firepower, privileged fire support, and echelon tactics is an EXACT description of Ludendorff's solution to trench warfare on the Western front in 1917 (where it worked well, despite the fact that Germany lost the war due to industrial overmatch), and to proclaim this comes as some kind of game-changing surprise you didn't foresee and is now changing the balance of power on the ground is to admit not that the enemy is evolving but that your own strategic command is staffed by people incapable of even the meanest understanding.
Early on in this conflict I was consuming huge amounts of news from a variety of sources in an attempt to figure out what was actually going on. Digging into the Battle of Kiev finally made it clear that most of the MSM reporting had no basis in reality.
From wikipedia the RF had 15,000 to 30,000 troops and killed 89 civilians in Kiev, 167 Ukrainian troops, and damaged 162 builings in Kiev. There are basically two ways to take a city in modern warfare, either flatten it first with artillery or attack with a much larger force and still take heavy casualties. 30,000 isn't enough to storm a city of 3 million and only 162 damaged buildings means that there was no attempt to flatten it first. It is simply not possible to reconcile the MSM narrative with its own facts.
The MSM is in the process of updating its narrative, but it has to do so in a such way that its earlier narrative still looks plausible. It can't just come out and say "So, we were lying to you all last year. Here's what is actually going on."
Thanks for another excellent and detailed post. Very informative.
Speaking of "pedantic", the correct spelling is "planing" glide bombs, not "planning". I only mention it because I have seen the misspelling on several posts now.
Truly masterful work. I'd like to add a little color here. I was Southern white trash trailer park. My family did have a "in" with Gene Stipe/Carl Albert Dixie Mafia and I was told I could get a West Point allotment. Letting you know how truly stupid I was, I said no, and I wanted to mustang up thru the ranks. This was in the late 80's and it was still really Post Vietnam RIF land. I got in, made it up to E-5 and got some trigger time in South America and some life time experience in Germany and Turkey where I learned to make money. But that is another subject. And I got the fuck out after one tour.
Reference the Russian Army adapting. Every peace time Army is a joke. Killers are not the same folks that make it to First Sergeant and Sgt Major when the shit hits the fan. They are just different jobs. And technology is evolving at a screaming rate. One that far surpasses military procurement boondoggles of either Russian or American MIC theft factories.
The Russians are not chess Grand Masters. And neither are the Americans. But the Russians have shown the ability to learn and adapt. While my erstwhile West Point classmates might have beens are living in a fantasy land of epic proportions. They are simply believing the Ukrainian intelligence and their own ego.
My country has not ever actually fought a war since the Civil War. We entered WW1 when it was really over. We landed in Normandy when Germany was exhausted. Korea was a debacle. Vietnam was a loss, and so on.
Make no mistake, we have killers. We are good at it, and we enjoy it. But we don't have a lot. And enlistment rates are dropping. Excuse my blatant racism here, but white men are your killers. I am. And white men in the US are checking out. You can't tell Southern crackers to take a vaccine and be nice to the tranny, and you still are not going to be promoted. Cause the white heterosexual thing and expect them to join.
And Russia is learning who their killers are. They are honing them. They are testing their weapons and finding out what works. Oh yeah. And Russians are white killers also. We're fucking good at it.
And also, Raytheon fucks the Army for every dollar. Russian military procurement is probably just as corrupt in its way. BUT, I have a feeling when Putin calls and ask where the fucking glide bombs are? The midnight oil gets turned on.
Make no mistake. My country is invulnerable. No one can invade the USA. The South will rise again, and you will feel its wrath. But a land war in Europe? Against Russia? With long supply lines, and our allies the cucks of Europe? I cannot believe we are not walking away from this debacle right now. But that is the idiocy of the leadership of my country.
And that is the strength of Russia. Putin has his flaws. He ain't Jesus. But in the leadership pantheon of the current world? Christ, he does walk on water.
So, a rather rambling, arguably racist, and two beer rant. But your work truly touches me. And I wish my idiots would listen to it. I do not want my brothers in the Army dying in a war we cannot win. Supporting fucking Nazi's in Ukraine waving swastikas.
The current White House occupant has surrounded himself with a horde of creeps just like him.
They only know one thing destroy, dismantle while enriching themselves.
They’re presently disassembling the U.S. piece by piece and selling it to highest bidder.
Speaking of invading I need to remind you that in just the short amount of time that decadent group in charge in DC has allowed 3 to 4 million illegal aliens to enter the country Killing, raping and stealing as they go
Doing whatever they want whenever they choose with not a word of opposition from anyone.
And I think they coming up through the SOUTH.
And the untouchable wealthy elites sit idly on the sidelines handing out cigars and they call it “riding the gravy train”
Yeah, I think I sensed that. And you’ve got some gall to come in here and brag you got some “trigger time” in South America. American soldiers huh, what a lovely bunch.
Yep, braggarts. They come from the low end of society, the losers and deadenders, the unemployable. The only way to make themselves 'big' in their little minds, is to participate in an illegal war and spend the rest of their obese sad lives bragging about it.
That phrase "trigger time" shows the juvenile mentality of that particular gronk.
It’s all a Wild West movie to them. I’m Spanish, when I start thinking of all the innocent Nicaraguans, Salvadorians, Chileans…sacrificed so these godless greedy bunch could run three cars and consume 6,000 calories a day, while complaining of PTSD I get sick.
I disagree a little bit about your WW2 take. Yeah I’m the European theater we came in against an exhausted Nazi Germany. But remember we fought a two front war. One in Europe the other in the pacific. And the fighting there was intense and Japans was no slouch. The fighting in the Pacific was very brutal. And if we invaded Japan the war would have lasted until 1947. The American after world war 2 was a real superpower. Now I agree with you that after that it has been one fiasco after another. One big key point is that we haven’t fought a conventional war against a near peer competitor since Korea. We have four generations of veterans that only know how to fight insurgents(poorly at it). This is why this whole thing about fighting Russia,China,Iran separately or same time is laughable. A war with Russia or China would expose our military so bad. Hell war with Iran would expose our military. I don’t think the US public is ready to handle 10,000 casualties in just one week of fighting.
Oh, boy! I have laughed loudly when I read your quip....simply excellent - “This is in similar fashion to the tropes about “Russians learning how to use indoor plumbing”, etc.”. As always, thank you for your analysis.
Thank you for yet another insightful analysis. Feels like your mind is more rested and sharper today :)
Got nothing to add but this: never, ever, ever, EVER underestimate the power of latent racism. Recently, I saw an NHK (Japanese state TV) documentary on China's construction of artificial islands along the "seven dash" line. They had an American analyst on there who said something akin to "Yeah, we saw right from the beginning (via satellite photos) what they were doing, but we just figured the Chinese were too stupid to actually make it work, so we did nothing about it. And now it's too late."
So, they can design & build (ok, there is some technological theft there but still) stealth fighters but cannot build artificial islands? The idiocy is staggering.
Excellent article Simplicus. I have a question that is off topic. Could you in the future write and in depth article on why you think the US is heading to a second civil war. I’m American and I also have this feeling we are one contested election away from civil unrest and ultimately civil war.
Looking at the States from the other side of the Atlantic it does look as though the US is only an election or so from total melt down. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The problem isn't as extreme in the UK though it is slowly dawning on the wider public that Parliament isn't really in control of the State and something is horribly wrong. Other forces, whoever they may be, are in control. Not those who claim to be in control. If civil unrest does occur, it could be a trans-Atlantic phenomena.
Ukraine
My view is that Economic factors will determine Ukraine's fate. The US national debt is growing rapidly. A " Debt-Ceiling" crisis will occur within 3 months at a maximum. Frankly, the US can no longer afford to supply Ukraine with military aid. If the situation is not resolved soon Kiev will have to capitulate. It a matter of basic accountancy.
Please see this US Treasury Statement on the monthly deficit. The next Statement is due May 10. Another big movement in the negative direction and we might see a US led, Ukraine pull out soon after that date.
Yeah the debt ceiling fight is going to heat up this summer. If we default on top of all the other economic issues we have things will quickly fall apart. The only thing that is keeping American society together is the dollar as reserve currency. If that’s gone and we have a debt/currency the country will quickly devolve into chaos.
The way a 2nd civil war will go is it will start with continuous civil unrest. Then the next step after that is political violence. Where we see politicians, political activist, podcaster etc get assassinated. We are very close to this happening. Next step is terror attacks. Car bombs against political party headquarters, financial institutions, new media stations and govt seats of power. Then we see break down in the security apparatus cops and military start abandoning their post to defect to different political ideologies. We see militias of various political ideologies start taking territory and launching guerrilla attacks on Federal forces who are overextended and exhausted. The scary thing about a second American civil war is communal violence. It will be similar to the Yugoslav wars. What happens to red counties in blue states? What happens to blue counties in red states? Pent up anger and rage will lead to an explosion of violence this world isn’t ready to see. Atrocities will be committed by all sides.
I would recommend anyone to read up on biophysical economics to get a big picture view of humanity's predicament. Exponential expansion dependent on finite fossil energy resources coupled with evolutionary genes that makes us compete for said resources, now add the fact that Russia controls roughly a third of these resources. Russia is going to have to fight tooth and nail to keep control of them and Nations who can't maintain their exponential expansion and are looking at collapse are going to get desperate. Cue US - Russia war in Ukraine.
Western arrogance is out of this world. I always love it especially when the media talk about Ukrainians being given NATO standard training, as though that is some gold standard. Given that no NATO country has fought a peer enemy in a land war since Korea or WW2 it is hard to see how this can possibly be the case. They simply do not know what the fighting in Ukraine entails so how can they train anyone for such a war?
My sense is that the Russian army that entered this conflict was at least as good as or better than any other army that exists on a man for man basis. No doubt they are now evolving. All wars seems to need this, however good you are to start with. A long time ago I read a book “Mud, Blood and Poppycock” by Gordon Corrigan about the evolution of the British Army in WW1. The 1914 infantry unit was composed almost 100% of riflemen trained as rapid fire marksmen because that had been a lesson from the Boer War, fought on open veldt against an enemy with only limited artillery. Artillerymen still thought too that direct fire was a good idea and machine guns were deployed sparingly. By 1918 the standard infantry unit and its equipment had changed radically and very few soldiers were pure riflemen whilst marksmanship and rapid rifle fire had been downgraded. At the same time, other arms of the service had expanded radically and tanks were being deployed routinely. It was a revolution. Other armies of the era went through similar changes, of course. Zero surprise if this war as the first one fought truly in the age of drones, mobile communication and networks is not leading to evolution and even revolution in how armies fight. Despite what the media says, the Russians seem very competent and able to perform effectively.
Like others commenting here, I would say I would be surprised if the Russian army was not adapting and learning after a year of war – as all armies do in these circumstances. Nevertheless the Z Company piece from our esteemed Australian hardly describes an earth shattering military revolution – and simply outlines a pretty standard arrangement of fire and storm groups plus support. If you can find an account of Russian small unit tactics in say Berlin in 1945 you would see parallels.
Back in the day we were told to fear and respect the Soviet Army. What has surprised me in this war has been the media and political portrayal of the Russians in starkly racist terms. From the start the media has reported that the stupid and vicious “Orcs” have been deliberately targeting civilians as they are too cowardly to actually fight the ubermensch of Ukraine, so prefer to commit war crimes in the brief times between retreats from the UAF blitzkrieg. Russia and the Russians have been characterised in much the same way that was done by the Nazis – and look what happened then. However the rabid and extreme reporting in the press highlighted to me that they were reporting propaganda not news. Whilst I believe I can see through the BS, alas too many people cannot. It does appear to be official western policy to regard the Russians as sub-human in a very overt and explicit way. I find that deeply disturbing on many levels.
Western experts covering this war have generally (with notable exceptions) treated the Russian army and its capabilities as a joke. My take is that it had and continues to have problems but the hard school of war is ironing those out. Mistakes and disasters will still happen. War is a messy business and your enemy gets a say. However at the end of this the West – having had a cunning plan to embroil Russia in an unwinnable shooting and financial war, deplete its military and over turn its government – may well find the opposite result. The Russian military will be larger than before, combat experienced and newly equipped, with their own MIC geared up. Meanwhile it has kicked off a global economic realignment and damaged wester economies, particularly in Europe. Maybe someone thought ““We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” Well, if you look at the world through a racist lens you get what you deserve.
Perhaps this attitude to present day Russian forces might have something to do with the successful proxy war the USA fought against the USSR in Afghanistan. I think it is going to be a sobering experience when NATO and the EU Commission is forced to withdraw from Ukraine.
The hateful, racist Nazi-style propaganda about all things/people Russian is very disturbing to me, too. The western media and political class have completely denigrated an entire group of human beings to be scapegoats for everything that they themselves are to blame for and all questioning or dissent is because Russian propaganda is so prevalent VVP controls everyone's innermost thoughts. I've come to the conclusion that the western political/media/military class has a deeply ingrained need to find a group of people to spew hatred on simply for its own sake. Moving on from brown folks in the middle east, I suppose.
Our media is awful - not just on the war - on anything that materially affects us and benefits the elites - ‘inflation is transitory’, ‘inflation is good for you’, ‘Europe is socialist so don’t use them as an example of sound social policies’, ‘lab leak is a conspiracy’, ‘vaccines have no side affects’, ‘Matt Taibbi lied to Congress’, ‘ ‘men can be women and women can be men,’ ‘hiring based on diversity is better than hiring based on competence’, ‘we can maintain our standard of life without any fossil fuels’, ‘Epstein committed suicide’ and on and on - I dare say the media isn’t incompetent, it’s deliberately complicit because in all cases, including the war, it’s not hard to see what’s really going on - or at least one can see enough to serious question the given narrative.
Ryan is Australia's Ben Hodges; the American empire's military is an intellectual black hole. I guess he is not as plainly inane as Hodges, but if he's just noticed Russia is waging an attritional war, he is maybe not in the same alternative universe as the American, but merely a time warp about a year behind the rest of us outside the American echo-chamber
I couldn’t agree more with the comment about Ryan.
I wouldn’t give a Cent for a comment by any current or retired NATO/AUKUS Senior Officer because they all come from the same intellectual pedigree.
The Australian contribution to the “forever wars” in the “sandbox” was minor & ineffectual to say the least with one caveat - that of their Special Forces - who are now being crucified through a Legal Investigation being lead by the leadership of the Australian Ministry of Defence itself.
It is this senior leadership who with full knowledge repeatedly deployed the Australian Special Forces & was fully aware of everything that occurred during operations both in Iraq, Afghanistan & other operational theatres.
I know...I worked operationally with those men.
It’s the same type of Kangaroo Court type of justice that occurred in the U.K. led by the MoD against some of the very best I personally know.
Per Terram
Yep, Australia's Special Forces investigation should, like any criminal investigation, go for the masterminds, not the street-level tools
Street level tools are the ones actually carrying out the extra-judicial killings tho, and many of them took pleasure in so doing. At least that's the case with the Americans I'm aware of. Can't see why it'd be any different for the Aussies, Brits, or anyone else.
Don't get me wrong, the high level perps giving the orders and frankly committing Australia's military to the theater should be prosecuted as vigorously as the low level guys, but that isn't how things happen in nations governed by men and not laws.
Crucified? Those criminal scum bags in the Australian SAS deserve to be charged and sentenced. Roberts-Smith is the perfect example of a wannabe Rambo, a shameless war criminal amd a disgusting example of both a soldier and a citizen.
Fuck them all. I hope their PTSD gives them forever nightmares.
I never mentioned BRS once.
There is a huge difference between the legal circumstances surrounding BRS & those individuals now under investigation as a result of the Brereton Report.
BRS is a self-publicist who frankly deserves everything that is coming his way.
Those who now face potential prosecution following the Brereton Enquiry do not deserve to be tarred with the same brush.
Just for the record...that’s where I stand.
You on the other hand, have probably never ever had to stand in harms way or do things that are beyond any normal human frame of reference.
Per Mare Per Terram
Oh don't play the war hero with me you piece of shit war criminal cunt.
Your bullshit weakly tries to paint the SAS scum as poor done by victims. I have seen the video of the young Afghan lad executed like a dog. And the videos of other SAS scum mistreating Afghan fighters dead bodies. They are nothing but govt. sanctioned assassins and hopefully they will be sent to Ukraine where Russia will give them the send off they well deserve.
The SAS scum, and others committed war crimes in Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan.
I do hope our paths cross one day and I'll show what being in harm's way is all about.
Typical deadender unemployable loser that joins the army 'cos they are the only organisation that will hire lowlife filth.
Aw, shucks.
interesting both military and gov wouldnt touch it as it was national tarnishing , everyone knew , but it was left for a few newspapers to do the investigations, by then the cat came out of the bag and military had to be pressured to step in ,. but remember the outrage when china did a meme about aussie troops in afghanistan? telling lies to hide a lie never works. and yeah i knew soldiers in afghanistan who talked openly about what constitures war crimes. they were very messed up by it all.
Idiot.
Great reply dickhead. Full of facts and counter arguments. Now fuck off back to your bedroom and rewatch Rambo and masturbate.
Och, wounded by your rapier like witlessness. However will I survive?
The "evolution" canard is just another straw man constructed to cover grossness. As for decision making, I recall a Putin discussion @2016 or so where he said those on the spot need to be allowed the ability to make the choices since they knew the most about the immediate situation; so, the change began during the Syrian op. Another difference is Russian troops live long enough to learn and perform new tactics enabling them to live longer while Ukies die before they have any such opportunity.
I see absolutely nothing in this supposed Russian tactical evolution that is surprising or unpredictable. Semi-detached combined-arms infantry assault groups utilizing shock firepower, privileged fire support, and echelon tactics is an EXACT description of Ludendorff's solution to trench warfare on the Western front in 1917 (where it worked well, despite the fact that Germany lost the war due to industrial overmatch), and to proclaim this comes as some kind of game-changing surprise you didn't foresee and is now changing the balance of power on the ground is to admit not that the enemy is evolving but that your own strategic command is staffed by people incapable of even the meanest understanding.
GodSpeed, Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙
Early on in this conflict I was consuming huge amounts of news from a variety of sources in an attempt to figure out what was actually going on. Digging into the Battle of Kiev finally made it clear that most of the MSM reporting had no basis in reality.
From wikipedia the RF had 15,000 to 30,000 troops and killed 89 civilians in Kiev, 167 Ukrainian troops, and damaged 162 builings in Kiev. There are basically two ways to take a city in modern warfare, either flatten it first with artillery or attack with a much larger force and still take heavy casualties. 30,000 isn't enough to storm a city of 3 million and only 162 damaged buildings means that there was no attempt to flatten it first. It is simply not possible to reconcile the MSM narrative with its own facts.
The MSM is in the process of updating its narrative, but it has to do so in a such way that its earlier narrative still looks plausible. It can't just come out and say "So, we were lying to you all last year. Here's what is actually going on."
Thanks for another excellent and detailed post. Very informative.
Speaking of "pedantic", the correct spelling is "planing" glide bombs, not "planning". I only mention it because I have seen the misspelling on several posts now.
Well these are the same people who think that the Red Army human waved itself to Berlin because the blocking detachments wouldn’t allow retreat.
I chuckled
Truly masterful work. I'd like to add a little color here. I was Southern white trash trailer park. My family did have a "in" with Gene Stipe/Carl Albert Dixie Mafia and I was told I could get a West Point allotment. Letting you know how truly stupid I was, I said no, and I wanted to mustang up thru the ranks. This was in the late 80's and it was still really Post Vietnam RIF land. I got in, made it up to E-5 and got some trigger time in South America and some life time experience in Germany and Turkey where I learned to make money. But that is another subject. And I got the fuck out after one tour.
Reference the Russian Army adapting. Every peace time Army is a joke. Killers are not the same folks that make it to First Sergeant and Sgt Major when the shit hits the fan. They are just different jobs. And technology is evolving at a screaming rate. One that far surpasses military procurement boondoggles of either Russian or American MIC theft factories.
The Russians are not chess Grand Masters. And neither are the Americans. But the Russians have shown the ability to learn and adapt. While my erstwhile West Point classmates might have beens are living in a fantasy land of epic proportions. They are simply believing the Ukrainian intelligence and their own ego.
My country has not ever actually fought a war since the Civil War. We entered WW1 when it was really over. We landed in Normandy when Germany was exhausted. Korea was a debacle. Vietnam was a loss, and so on.
Make no mistake, we have killers. We are good at it, and we enjoy it. But we don't have a lot. And enlistment rates are dropping. Excuse my blatant racism here, but white men are your killers. I am. And white men in the US are checking out. You can't tell Southern crackers to take a vaccine and be nice to the tranny, and you still are not going to be promoted. Cause the white heterosexual thing and expect them to join.
And Russia is learning who their killers are. They are honing them. They are testing their weapons and finding out what works. Oh yeah. And Russians are white killers also. We're fucking good at it.
And also, Raytheon fucks the Army for every dollar. Russian military procurement is probably just as corrupt in its way. BUT, I have a feeling when Putin calls and ask where the fucking glide bombs are? The midnight oil gets turned on.
Make no mistake. My country is invulnerable. No one can invade the USA. The South will rise again, and you will feel its wrath. But a land war in Europe? Against Russia? With long supply lines, and our allies the cucks of Europe? I cannot believe we are not walking away from this debacle right now. But that is the idiocy of the leadership of my country.
And that is the strength of Russia. Putin has his flaws. He ain't Jesus. But in the leadership pantheon of the current world? Christ, he does walk on water.
So, a rather rambling, arguably racist, and two beer rant. But your work truly touches me. And I wish my idiots would listen to it. I do not want my brothers in the Army dying in a war we cannot win. Supporting fucking Nazi's in Ukraine waving swastikas.
"My country is invulnerable. No one can invade the USA."
Hmmm, no need to invade. However it is not invulnerable at all. Have you heard that Russia has thousands of unstoppable nukes?
Another gung ho flag waving imbecile that thinks the good ol' USA is the greatest.
We are being occupied even now.
The current White House occupant has surrounded himself with a horde of creeps just like him.
They only know one thing destroy, dismantle while enriching themselves.
They’re presently disassembling the U.S. piece by piece and selling it to highest bidder.
Speaking of invading I need to remind you that in just the short amount of time that decadent group in charge in DC has allowed 3 to 4 million illegal aliens to enter the country Killing, raping and stealing as they go
Doing whatever they want whenever they choose with not a word of opposition from anyone.
And I think they coming up through the SOUTH.
And the untouchable wealthy elites sit idly on the sidelines handing out cigars and they call it “riding the gravy train”
“two beer rant”.
Yeah, I think I sensed that. And you’ve got some gall to come in here and brag you got some “trigger time” in South America. American soldiers huh, what a lovely bunch.
Yep, braggarts. They come from the low end of society, the losers and deadenders, the unemployable. The only way to make themselves 'big' in their little minds, is to participate in an illegal war and spend the rest of their obese sad lives bragging about it.
That phrase "trigger time" shows the juvenile mentality of that particular gronk.
It’s all a Wild West movie to them. I’m Spanish, when I start thinking of all the innocent Nicaraguans, Salvadorians, Chileans…sacrificed so these godless greedy bunch could run three cars and consume 6,000 calories a day, while complaining of PTSD I get sick.
I disagree a little bit about your WW2 take. Yeah I’m the European theater we came in against an exhausted Nazi Germany. But remember we fought a two front war. One in Europe the other in the pacific. And the fighting there was intense and Japans was no slouch. The fighting in the Pacific was very brutal. And if we invaded Japan the war would have lasted until 1947. The American after world war 2 was a real superpower. Now I agree with you that after that it has been one fiasco after another. One big key point is that we haven’t fought a conventional war against a near peer competitor since Korea. We have four generations of veterans that only know how to fight insurgents(poorly at it). This is why this whole thing about fighting Russia,China,Iran separately or same time is laughable. A war with Russia or China would expose our military so bad. Hell war with Iran would expose our military. I don’t think the US public is ready to handle 10,000 casualties in just one week of fighting.
Japan was ready to surrender, so nice job justifying not just one but two nuclear attacks on mostly civilians.
"Trigger time in South America" - Murdering leftists in their own countries, eh? Yeah, I'd be real proud of that too /sarc.
Oh, boy! I have laughed loudly when I read your quip....simply excellent - “This is in similar fashion to the tropes about “Russians learning how to use indoor plumbing”, etc.”. As always, thank you for your analysis.
Thank you for yet another insightful analysis. Feels like your mind is more rested and sharper today :)
Got nothing to add but this: never, ever, ever, EVER underestimate the power of latent racism. Recently, I saw an NHK (Japanese state TV) documentary on China's construction of artificial islands along the "seven dash" line. They had an American analyst on there who said something akin to "Yeah, we saw right from the beginning (via satellite photos) what they were doing, but we just figured the Chinese were too stupid to actually make it work, so we did nothing about it. And now it's too late."
Really. Video (in English) is here: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/tv/documentary/20220911/4001414/
So, they can design & build (ok, there is some technological theft there but still) stealth fighters but cannot build artificial islands? The idiocy is staggering.
Excellent article Simplicus. I have a question that is off topic. Could you in the future write and in depth article on why you think the US is heading to a second civil war. I’m American and I also have this feeling we are one contested election away from civil unrest and ultimately civil war.
Second Mark223: excellent article Simplicus
Looking at the States from the other side of the Atlantic it does look as though the US is only an election or so from total melt down. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The problem isn't as extreme in the UK though it is slowly dawning on the wider public that Parliament isn't really in control of the State and something is horribly wrong. Other forces, whoever they may be, are in control. Not those who claim to be in control. If civil unrest does occur, it could be a trans-Atlantic phenomena.
Ukraine
My view is that Economic factors will determine Ukraine's fate. The US national debt is growing rapidly. A " Debt-Ceiling" crisis will occur within 3 months at a maximum. Frankly, the US can no longer afford to supply Ukraine with military aid. If the situation is not resolved soon Kiev will have to capitulate. It a matter of basic accountancy.
Please see this US Treasury Statement on the monthly deficit. The next Statement is due May 10. Another big movement in the negative direction and we might see a US led, Ukraine pull out soon after that date.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/current.html
Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks again for excellent research and summary .
Yeah the debt ceiling fight is going to heat up this summer. If we default on top of all the other economic issues we have things will quickly fall apart. The only thing that is keeping American society together is the dollar as reserve currency. If that’s gone and we have a debt/currency the country will quickly devolve into chaos.
The way a 2nd civil war will go is it will start with continuous civil unrest. Then the next step after that is political violence. Where we see politicians, political activist, podcaster etc get assassinated. We are very close to this happening. Next step is terror attacks. Car bombs against political party headquarters, financial institutions, new media stations and govt seats of power. Then we see break down in the security apparatus cops and military start abandoning their post to defect to different political ideologies. We see militias of various political ideologies start taking territory and launching guerrilla attacks on Federal forces who are overextended and exhausted. The scary thing about a second American civil war is communal violence. It will be similar to the Yugoslav wars. What happens to red counties in blue states? What happens to blue counties in red states? Pent up anger and rage will lead to an explosion of violence this world isn’t ready to see. Atrocities will be committed by all sides.
I would recommend anyone to read up on biophysical economics to get a big picture view of humanity's predicament. Exponential expansion dependent on finite fossil energy resources coupled with evolutionary genes that makes us compete for said resources, now add the fact that Russia controls roughly a third of these resources. Russia is going to have to fight tooth and nail to keep control of them and Nations who can't maintain their exponential expansion and are looking at collapse are going to get desperate. Cue US - Russia war in Ukraine.
Great article.
Western arrogance is out of this world. I always love it especially when the media talk about Ukrainians being given NATO standard training, as though that is some gold standard. Given that no NATO country has fought a peer enemy in a land war since Korea or WW2 it is hard to see how this can possibly be the case. They simply do not know what the fighting in Ukraine entails so how can they train anyone for such a war?
My sense is that the Russian army that entered this conflict was at least as good as or better than any other army that exists on a man for man basis. No doubt they are now evolving. All wars seems to need this, however good you are to start with. A long time ago I read a book “Mud, Blood and Poppycock” by Gordon Corrigan about the evolution of the British Army in WW1. The 1914 infantry unit was composed almost 100% of riflemen trained as rapid fire marksmen because that had been a lesson from the Boer War, fought on open veldt against an enemy with only limited artillery. Artillerymen still thought too that direct fire was a good idea and machine guns were deployed sparingly. By 1918 the standard infantry unit and its equipment had changed radically and very few soldiers were pure riflemen whilst marksmanship and rapid rifle fire had been downgraded. At the same time, other arms of the service had expanded radically and tanks were being deployed routinely. It was a revolution. Other armies of the era went through similar changes, of course. Zero surprise if this war as the first one fought truly in the age of drones, mobile communication and networks is not leading to evolution and even revolution in how armies fight. Despite what the media says, the Russians seem very competent and able to perform effectively.
Like others commenting here, I would say I would be surprised if the Russian army was not adapting and learning after a year of war – as all armies do in these circumstances. Nevertheless the Z Company piece from our esteemed Australian hardly describes an earth shattering military revolution – and simply outlines a pretty standard arrangement of fire and storm groups plus support. If you can find an account of Russian small unit tactics in say Berlin in 1945 you would see parallels.
Back in the day we were told to fear and respect the Soviet Army. What has surprised me in this war has been the media and political portrayal of the Russians in starkly racist terms. From the start the media has reported that the stupid and vicious “Orcs” have been deliberately targeting civilians as they are too cowardly to actually fight the ubermensch of Ukraine, so prefer to commit war crimes in the brief times between retreats from the UAF blitzkrieg. Russia and the Russians have been characterised in much the same way that was done by the Nazis – and look what happened then. However the rabid and extreme reporting in the press highlighted to me that they were reporting propaganda not news. Whilst I believe I can see through the BS, alas too many people cannot. It does appear to be official western policy to regard the Russians as sub-human in a very overt and explicit way. I find that deeply disturbing on many levels.
Western experts covering this war have generally (with notable exceptions) treated the Russian army and its capabilities as a joke. My take is that it had and continues to have problems but the hard school of war is ironing those out. Mistakes and disasters will still happen. War is a messy business and your enemy gets a say. However at the end of this the West – having had a cunning plan to embroil Russia in an unwinnable shooting and financial war, deplete its military and over turn its government – may well find the opposite result. The Russian military will be larger than before, combat experienced and newly equipped, with their own MIC geared up. Meanwhile it has kicked off a global economic realignment and damaged wester economies, particularly in Europe. Maybe someone thought ““We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” Well, if you look at the world through a racist lens you get what you deserve.
Perhaps this attitude to present day Russian forces might have something to do with the successful proxy war the USA fought against the USSR in Afghanistan. I think it is going to be a sobering experience when NATO and the EU Commission is forced to withdraw from Ukraine.
The hateful, racist Nazi-style propaganda about all things/people Russian is very disturbing to me, too. The western media and political class have completely denigrated an entire group of human beings to be scapegoats for everything that they themselves are to blame for and all questioning or dissent is because Russian propaganda is so prevalent VVP controls everyone's innermost thoughts. I've come to the conclusion that the western political/media/military class has a deeply ingrained need to find a group of people to spew hatred on simply for its own sake. Moving on from brown folks in the middle east, I suppose.
Our media is awful - not just on the war - on anything that materially affects us and benefits the elites - ‘inflation is transitory’, ‘inflation is good for you’, ‘Europe is socialist so don’t use them as an example of sound social policies’, ‘lab leak is a conspiracy’, ‘vaccines have no side affects’, ‘Matt Taibbi lied to Congress’, ‘ ‘men can be women and women can be men,’ ‘hiring based on diversity is better than hiring based on competence’, ‘we can maintain our standard of life without any fossil fuels’, ‘Epstein committed suicide’ and on and on - I dare say the media isn’t incompetent, it’s deliberately complicit because in all cases, including the war, it’s not hard to see what’s really going on - or at least one can see enough to serious question the given narrative.
Crocodile Dundee was cool. As for the western special forces… that’s all what’s left. A farce