The carnival is in its last season, and it’s beginning to show its age, appearing at times both erratic and woefully rehearsed to exasperated audiences.
This is just the beginning of 3 WW. France has just send a carrier group "Charles deGaulle" to unblock Hormuz. Previously Macron denied any chance for involvement. Possibly he is compromised by Epstein. The other countries will shortly follow, sometimes under "humanitarian aid" banner, but running logistics for fighting armies. Or occupying parts or whole countries in the ME, new colonies. The UK no longer colonisers, but liberators.
War will be sometimes slowing, like now, to rapidly develop the next month.
For capitalists the next step is depopulation, so not only fertiliser shortage, but nuclear dirty bombs causing crops to be destroyed and not harvested, famine, trans border and civil wars. Mass migration from stricken Middle East and Africa, causing endemic illnesses to spread. Still, there would be another planned pandemic 2, deadlier and more restrictive on human rights, as the previous one. Social engineering at new level, fuelled by AI pictures spread over the mass media, virtual reality comes closer.
Biological agents, pesticides, sprayed on it's own country population to frame some fictitious terrorist organisation or foreign power as a pretext for military mobilisation and war.
As 80% world trade is maritime, the major world seaports, which are in Asia and China, will be blocked or blown. A large nuclear bomb in the middle of Pacific as warning, a clear message. Or large ship with fertiliser or LNG blown up at docks, destroying the whole port.
For them there is no need anymore for a large workforce, artificial intelligence does the work. Humans do expect decent wages, medical care, pensions and working/human rights. Robots don't.
Epstein class does't care about working class. Never did. That's why there were 2 world wars and countless wars around the world to boost nationalism, hate and control narratives. Now cannon fodder will have a stronger meaning. Humans are literally disposable for the system.
The ruling class would survive in deep bunkers full of food for many years, even over nuclear winter times.
Scott Ritter yesterday already pointed out that this France joke of a carrier is even diminish the force abilities since it is causing more headache than fighting capabilities.
A sunken french carrier will be shrugged over while a sunken US carrier will provoke more stupid bombing from the USA.
France is a nuclear power with some 290 bombs. They can use them independently, outside of NATO control. "France remains the only NATO member to not participate in its Nuclear Planning Group"
Let some people have their delusions... though I think it's just paid trolls trying different angles to throw fudge on the situation. It will become obvious when reviewed a couple weeks from now. As I've said before, if most of the folks on here have the typical memory of American Joe sixpack (aka 6 seconds), then ya, all these nonsensical threats might seem threatening. But in reality, Chihuahuas like France are backing at their own reflection in the mirror.
France? Meh….arent they busy witnessing the slightly delayed collapse of their entire welfare system in real time? Carrier group? Really? To do what? Get targeted by the Houthis before they actually get in theater?! Metal Talks and BS Walks.
FAFO….the entire world changes when something like this occurs. Not even an oracle such as yourself has a clue just how this pans out and pretending you do is StupidFake&Ghey
In a world where politicians rape babies and eat them it's hard to rule anything out, but it's still unlikely that Micron would nuke Iran. It wouldn't clear the Strait, and it would likely guarantee a complete cessation of oil flow through the area. Micron won't even send troops to Ukraine, so I'd guess he'll keep his precious aircraft carrier far out of range.
Not so worried about losing equipment or sailors, the real ouch will be the public celebrations around the world.
The creature of Jekyll Island, Operation paperclip, JFK/USS Liberty, 9/11 and Covid. All clearly dismissed as conspiracy theories, in spite an abundance of contrary evidence.
Their solution? Give nuclear weapons to Ukraine, so we can fight ww3 and prevent Iran from getting them.
The strait of Hormuz is completely mined by Iran - Iran is not quaking at the French coming- Macron made a separate deal with Iran re oil - think the French ships are coming in solidarity and support of their oil source Iran, Do not awfulize - the US and Israel have been greatly reduced in their capacity to respond due to attacks by Iran that have totally isolated Israel, reduced arsenals, closed all ports and neutered her Re-supply prospects with airfields cratered and not accessible and leaving logistical networks in Israel gutted by 90%. The country is collapsing. No large Re-supply aircrafts can land anywhere in the country, 120,000 troops stranded and nutrition and water and all weapon supplies compromised, huge armament depots destroyed. That is why the IDF was in the UAE being used to defend a former GCC oil producer as Iran attacked it - Israel’s last hope in the ME for access to oil- all their stores of oil have been destroyed. Plus the Emiratis cannot trust local tribes - guards for the emirs and leaders are all provided by the IDF. Israel has been Gazanized in their own country by Iran-no food, no way out, no Re-supplies available, people cut off from any way to travel as so many bridges and rail lines have been destroyed, no where for aircraft to land re-supply planes, no way to distribute to the army and civilian population even if stores could be brought in, Iran took Israel out through years of planning and with very little direct loss of life a few days ago. Logistically neutered Israel - amazing feat, congrats Iran- brilliant planning, a coordinated effort no has seen before using open info available to those who choose to follow it. Tracking in ways most never considered. 47 years of isolation of Iran was put to good use - they planned and plotted and they have created a well educated population with engineering skills beyond compare.
He, Bibi, is now irrelevant given the reality therapy the population is experiencing - a country used to total care from womb to grave disrupted by war and the loss in IDF lives they are suffering and now no food supplies and access to any travel- . A leader cannot lead a decimated country; what is the plan- chaos bred total chaos and here the Israeli’s are isolated like Gazans in their own country. The evil rhetoric coming from rabbinic leaders and other Israeli citizens will need to change if they try to immigrate to another country - their hate speech will no longer be tolerated. Reparations? US rebuilding via Halliburton of an apartheid state? Let’s vote on this. - the Board of Peace no longer able to build a resort in Gaza, who is supplying Gaza now that there is no access to Israel - (wow Jared Kushner has $2 billion dollars of Saudi Arabia’s leader MBS’s funds - has MBS asked for a refund?) All Israeli and .Zionist oligarch funds must now go to rebuild Israeli infrastructure - the Iron Dome didn’t work- Israel a pariah state no on wants to live in any more. Major changes afoot in Israel me thinks. Long over do.
YOWZA! Where will all the murderous hatred and killing of these blood-thirsty Zionists finally wind up at? KILL--KILL--KILL! Yep--right upon their front door's threshold and it is all self-inflicted. Dog eat dog. In their blind hatred, Jews will start killing other Jews. What goes around--comes around. Karma, fate, justice--call it what you will.
Like we "seasoned citizens" always remind the young 'uns: "Age and wisdom ALWAYS defeats youth and strength."
Iran: celebrating its 2,500th Persian birthday.
Israel: a 'synthetic nation' created out of thin air--won't make its 100th birthday.
Watch any number of videos that illustrate the time lapse creation and dissolution of nation states. They are all synthetic with fluid boundaries. This one illustrates the territory of and surrounding modern Iran.
you remind me of what a friend in Canada told me his grandfather told him about his time in German concentration camps. He said the ugliest thing he saw in those camps was seeing jews sell out each others to germans.
Psychopaths don't have any loyalty to anyone and this applies to this particular psychopath support group masqueraded as a whatever they claim they are these days
China is ignoring US sanctions to normalize the Strait of Hormuz, France is also following China’s lead re the Strait - normalization of the area via non aggressive stance- just do it - a better response- watch what Iran is planning in the meantime - 47 years of marginalization has not marginalized this Persian civilization - they are ready for any contingency - well educated, long range planners, a chance of a life time to recalibrate life in the gulf on their terms. Long live Iran.
So the little pocket Napoleon, Macaroon and his Inspector Clouseau navy are going open shipping lanes in Hormuz , after Trump’s embarrassing belly flop in shallow end of the kids pool.
Utter drivel, and that was just the first sentence, the rest is beyond satire.
Will the frog ship shit house explode or will it be the "pastry" kitchen or perhaps those auto combusting, soiled frog undies in the laundry room of Micron's rusty tub?
Not to worry, Bro! When that Frenchie carrier goes down to Davey Jones' Locker--Bibi Mileikowsky Naval Salvage Corp. will grab that sweetheart deal. MONEY and POWER is all they are interested in.
>France has just send a carrier group "Charles deGaulle" to unblock Hormuz. Previously Macron denied any chance for involvement. Possibly he is compromised by Epstein. The other countries will shortly follow, sometimes under "humanitarian aid" banner, but running logistics for fighting armies.
LOL Your fantasies are funny.
>For capitalists the next step is depopulation, so not only fertiliser shortage, but nuclear dirty bombs causing crops to be destroyed and not harvested, famine, trans border and civil wars. Mass migration from stricken Middle East and Africa, causing endemic illnesses to spread.
Ah yes, it's the RIGHT that wants mass immigration, not the Left! LOL
Your beloved communist parties wouldn't have any representatives in any Western parliament without your fellow blacks and browns. Leftists would not have won A SINGLE NATIONAL ELECTION in Britain, France, Germany or Sweden after the 1990s without imported muds like you voting.
not true at least in the UK - most white people I know voted for Blair in 98 - even I did I am embarrassed to say - he seemed much better than that clown Major
The Houthis on their own took on the US/UK navy alst year and forced them, to withdraw from the Red Sea. I doubt Iran will lose a wink of sleep over this French PR stunt.
By stirring up nationalism, racism the rulers are able to divide and rule.
Yet people are voting for the system. All mass media, means of communication, educational system are strictly controlled.
There was a very strong anti-war movement in the UK before the 2 WW and before Iraq wars, yet those wars were pushed through and people were send to front and butchered.
In Ukraine the majority were against hostilities against Russia, Zelensky won on anti-war platform - yet within a year from election he was already conspiring with the USA for confrontation.
I used to believe he honestly tried to enforce Minsk Agreements, but after seeing his mocking display at one of the Normandy meetings, I dropped that illusion.
He was all in for confrontation from the beginning. Imagine history writing about you being the Iron Fist that balkanized Russia. OMG
Well there ya go….scintillating summary! You are nearly ready for your own ‘stack! Seriously though, best of luck in the mystery bunker. Mebe go watch season 2 of Fallout?!
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
Once again, the people in the US responsible for this have paid zero real cost for their actions, and are preparing for the next round of the kinetic war, while the alt-media is engaged is yet more self-congratulatory circlejerk activity before the war is over. The same way it did with Syria, and we know how that ended, and the same way it has been doing it with Ukraine for more than four years, and we see how that one is going too.
Trump is alive, Hegseth is alive, Vance is alive, Rubio is alive, not a single US general has been killed, not a single US oligarch, same in Israel.
Zero deterrence has been imposed, meanwhile Iran has been shifted into the category of countries that can be bombed at any time, the same way Iraq and Syria were back in the days, i.e. it is in a death spiral.
Iran has some meaningful moves it could play now, such as:
1) >100 kt on a Qaem-100, sent to the Nevada test range or to some spot 20-30 miles off the Florida coast directly adjacent to Mar-A-Lago, to sent a message about capability and intent.
2) Containerized Shaheds and missiles begin to take out billionaire mansions along the US coasts off cargo ships.
But it has done nothing of the sort.
It hasn't even sunk a single US ship. Not even the ship that killed the 168 girls in Minab.
It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine attacks Moscow on the 9th or just how they'll salami slice themselves out of a meaningful Russian response. They'll do something, no doubt, that will violate the Russian declared ceasefire in Moscow, and odds are overwhelming that Russia will do nothing in retaliation.
Meanwhile Swedish reconnaissance drones fly freely close to Black Sea targets and Finland allows drones through its airspace on their way to St. Petersburg and points east.
I don't think you're giving Putin enough credit here. He'll do something half-assed that will look like an attack on the city but won't hurt anyone. Maybe knock out the telephone service or something and count on the alt press to declare how fierce and decisive it was and yet how miraculously measured, wise and nuclear-response avoiding.
If a proper ruler had been in the Kremlin all of Ukraine all the way to Uzhgorod would have been Russian since 2014, with a couple thousand casualties at most.
Even with the tragic mistakes of 2014-16, in 2022 the same could and should have been accomplished with 20-30K KIA max.
But it wasn't, because we had the traitor/clown in the Kremlin in charge of decision making.
China and India deserve a little of the blame for this. IMO, though, Putin should have ignored them by 2023 and finished the damn thing. They'd have adjusted.
He’s their bitch, though. And more to the point he did need to try to make sure he kept them as trade partners. Not in fundamental disagreement with you, though.
If you act like your enemy, you'll become your enemy.
Just killing people because you can - what is that? It's a depraved western mindset that needs to be eradicated.
Of course Russia is annoyed by NATO and the west but they're winning plus the West is all dripping and drooling but no real biting. Because they're shitting their pants and even the totally insane Merz, Macron and Starmer know - if we really cross the line to wage war against Russia, there will be non of our armies left, probably even no Germany, France and UK. Finland, Sweden and Poland have painted a mark onto their own backs. Stupid does as stupid is.
This one isn't like you! Obviously Kiev needs to be smashed - and I'm less concerned about civilians in this war, at this point, than I used to be - but I maintain it's the US that needs to be touched.
Ok, but don't you think Kiev should return to Russia. That can't happen unless the people in Kiev are at least comfortable with that option. Look what 70 years of not making peace with palestinians achieved for Israel. How's Israel'Hezbollah decapitaion going? Not great. The elites in Kiev have acted perfectly to return Kiev and the entire country to Russia. They created a system where men are just meat for no purpose or benefits. Be calm, the UAF will collapse by march-august 2027. Drones are the barbed wire of our times, but they are a very obvious single point of failure for the entire UAF relying on chinese commercial components. You talk a lot of nukes on western Ukrakne. No need, at this point there is nobody left to fight an insurgency. One nuclear emp and 95% of UAF figting power is lost, a couple of tens of thousands conventional emps will do the same(deliverd by gerans maybe). No drone system is immune to emps. It can't be, fighter planes have gold in their canopies to survive, and will still lose most sensors. Starlink terminals? Lol, not immune at all.
The moment when that would have made a difference has long passed.
"Ukrainian" drones are hitting Perm and crossing the Urals daily now
You move the line of contact to the Dnieper and what happens? Maybe they won't be able to cross the Urals. But other than that absolutely nothing will change.
You have to eliminate the whole proxy.
And that necessitates taking out the transport links with Europe.
Taking out the bridges exposes the logistics to wider attack and depletion. It's incremental, but the results would be crippling to Ukraine. The drone issue will not persist at the current level - Russia will fortify it's air defense and subdue the Ukrainians effect.
Your suggestions of what Iran might do is escalation. Deterrence is thousands of people making hundreds of thousands of decisions every day to avoid escalation. One does not "impose" deterrence.
Where such an event occur, I'd first consider it to be a false-flag attempt to rally MAGA and allow the release ICE on a gullible population.
Iran is note Syria. There are no OPCW coverups of White Helmets rescuing non-existent victims of a phony Chemical attack. The NED/CIA/MI6 traitors have been exposed and eliminated as a threat.
The Iranian FM is in Beijing today.
Trump will be there is a week.
China and Russia are not going to abandon Iran.
Xi is going to handle Trump the same way he did Pierre Trudeau years ago, sending him scuttling away covering his ass with both hands. Trump may react differently, but the result will be even more pressure on Trump. US corporation investment in China is enormous. Many of those companies will not be able to survive without China. One possible threat is for China to halt all shipments of the resources even commercial corporations need to manufacture.
The energy blockade that Trump engineered has been exposed as a giant confidence scheme to get the "West" ever more dependent on US energy resources. The development of the Alaska North Shore gas fields would have been infeasible without the blockade.
We really don't know if Iran has sunk any ships. There are reports that it has, followed immediately by other reports that they haven't. We do know that the Ford is returning to the US home port.
I will not be surprised if AF-One suffers a catastrophic "accident" on its way to or from China. The "Jewish Mob" is losing its control over the American "Epstein Class".
Russia has a lot of Jews in Israel. Orlov suggests that should they return to Russia, they be executed. The Brooklyn Jews are apparently still buying confiscated homes in the West Bank.
Stop being so impatient. Your hot-headed responses will just incite more escalation and accomplish nothing.
Yes, the US will then respond with escalation, up to and including nuclear war.
The Chinese don’t arrest Trump for the same reason.
You seem to have no understanding of the psyche of the American Oligarchy/”Epstein Class” Have you not heard of their “Plan Z” of the “Golden Billion”? They are prepared to survive a nuclear war. Some of them even desire it. Punch them in the nose and they will punch back harder including the “Sampson Option”. They are insane from the perspective of the “common people”.
I forget who came up with the analogy, but Brian Berletic gave credit when he explained that the US is like the violent drunk in a “Dive Bar” who just wants to fight. He goes around pushing everyone around to make himself feel tough. Several people could easily over-power him but they don’t want the violence. It’s just “better” for everyone that he somehow be persuaded to be lured into a taxi and driven home.
Until you grasp this bedrock fact, your responses and suggestions are ridiculous. You’re the “other bully” in the bar that just wants to “kick ass” no matter what the odds. Screaming “hold me back fellows, otherwise I’m going to kill him.” But none of your friends do anything, because they know you’re just being phony.
What is your definition of "abandon" vs "sovereignty"?
Iran's FM was in St. Petersburg recently. He came away happy.
He is in China today.
Yesterday China's FM called for Hormuz to be open, "As soon as possible." A point on which the entire world agrees. There was no condemnation of Iran. No threats issued to Iran by China.
Iran is "handling the situation" and does not need Russia and China to tell it what to do. OTOH, Iran wants the war to end so, of course they are not objecting to China furthering talks.
What the 2 GMs said behind closed doors is unknown. John Helmer (discussed elsewhere in this post) assumes that China wants to become a hegemon on the same order as the USA, so China will be willing to compromise with the USA to achieve that goal. (He also said he was going out on a limb in making this prediction of compromise. We won't know anything until Trump leaves China. And most of that will be pure BS.)
China is buying Iranian oil. It has taken a baby step in saying it won't worry about US secondary sanctions in its dealing with Iranian oil.
"To Rubio, Wang announced that the Taiwan Strait was a higher geopolitical priority for China than the Hormuz Strait, and that if President Donald Trump agreed, he and President Xi would enjoy their summit meeting on May 14 in a celebration of the “U.S.-China relationship…"
John Helmer noted that China is ready to trade Hormuz for Taiwan and to betray iran. He follows Chinese blogger and also the famous Chinese professor. According to J. Helmer they all say that.
That's no surprise, of course China cares more about the Taiwan Strait than Hormuz.
Helmer did NOT say China would betray Iran. His Dialog Works video of 2 days ago is very complex to understand, but no where did he say "betray".
A compromise by China with the USA need not sacrifice anything to do with Iran. It -might- but it doesn't have to.
Doesn't "everyone" want a quick end to the war?
All in all, China wants no excuses for having to cancel the meeting with Trump. Trump is an idiot who generally acts on whatever it was the last guy who talked to him suggested.
It is too easy to not hear what Helmer meant but what you think he meant.
I see a lot of common ground between Sleboda and Helmer. Helmer though is more obtuse.
Given what is at stake here, China and Russia should have done what they did for Korea back in the 1950s, i.e. gone in directly with their own forces. Or at the very least done what NATO did for Ukraine.
The VKS and the Chinese air force should have been flying sorties out of the southern Russian airfields and perhaps Pakistan too, to shoot down Israeli and US jets, the Chinese (because they have a much bigger industrial capacity and are not in an active war, unlike the Russians) should have been non-stop airlifting HQ-XX systems with Chinese crews into Iran, and Chinese and Russian anti-ship missiles should have made it impossible for the US fleet to come anywhere close to the Iranian coast (assuming Iran indeed has problems with over-the-horizon targeting, and the reason no US ship has been sunk yet is not the Iranians cucking on their own).
And, of course, all that should have been put in motion after the 12-day war the latest.
But as far as we know no serious hardware was sent whatsoever.
China (as Helmer pointed out) has had worse luck with military adventures than the USA.
Iran is not Korea. The US forces are already quite depleted. Munition stocks are low.
Iran has destroyed 16 American bases. The US logistics lines are severed. (Have you not seen the meals being served on the Navy ships?) Iran is shooting down US/Israeli aircraft now, and destroying them on the ground.
I am not aware of the US or Israel deploying any ballistic missiles.
China has already sent some HQ-22s to Iran
Russia has been sending AD systems to Iran for over 2 years now.
Iran's own anti-ship missiles have kept the US navy nearly 1000Km away.
The US naval blockade is a farce.
A Navy destroyer did approach the strait. Iran could have hit it but instead dropped a shell just off its bow. The video shows how close it was.
You keep wanting to escalate because you think it will mean something. It will just mean the US becomes more committed and then the infrastructure of the entire GCC will be wiped out.
There are new reports today (7 May) that 3 destroyers tried to transit the strait. They were fired upon but to me, it looks like neither side wanted to actually hit anything. Other sources say the attempted transit was turned back well before the ships got close to the strait.
All in all, Iran seems to be doing “just fine”. Trump appears to want to stay out of Beijing next week, but he needs the Chinese to “disinvite him.”
Maybe just listen to the first 10 minutes of this Stan Krapivnik interview. The number of US targets that need to be taken out to reduce the US to a medieval economy: 47.
There's a general trend on comment boards you'll notice if you spend enough time on them. Basically, as time progresses there's less and less factual information presented and more and more uninformed opinion, until the latter so outweighs the former that people who're actually looking for facts just give up, and the board decays into yet another social media forum. I rarely post here anymore for that exact reason, although I do respect Simplicius' work and read every article.
That seems true. Some of it is likely intentional sabotage when an excellent and informative blog, like this one, has become very well known and popular with lots of subscribers. Although I absolutely support free speech, I also think blog-owners have the right to clean out the worst offenders in comment sections to keep it on track and useful for its purpose.
Yes. If you find 600 comments and 540 of them are off-topic or just ranting and harassing each other, then you feel tired and better read a long Emmanuel Todd or Aurelien piece. I think the World needs people like Simplicius and those named for the sake of truthseeking.
Events get into a rut; nothing novel happens in Ukraine anymore, no Bakhmut, no Ugledar, no pipeline urbex, no summer offensive. The audience gets bored. The blogger, trying to maintain interest and readership (which translates to earnings) can go two routes: 1. comment extensively on trivial events on the front, exaggerating their importance, or 2. provide opinion and analysis pieces instead of news. There is no third.
Simplicius went with 2, correctly in my opinion, as it has a better chance of retaining readership. But of course this is still disappointing---we all want action. The comments section inevitably gets radicalized, with people criticizing the slow pace, urging for escalation, and generally fielding all sorts of half-baked ideas.
It seems to me that things are generally moving in the right direction in both theaters, slowly and without fireworks. Thinking objectively, I actually prefer that to pointless fireworks, but I have to rationally override my boredom reflex. I still read with attention, but I comment less.
Much to agree there. But I think it is a third way and some of Simplicius pieces are a mix of 1 & 2 but sometimes also a third. Third way is to look further on, what inevitably must happen and of course it resembles more speculation than analysis.
Take Israel and their zests for new land and hatred for arabs. They will never stop until stopped. The Arab states got deceived by Israel in that by abandoning the Palestinians all would be fine. The results are even more wars.
Trump got ensnared into two illegal Wars with Iran thanks to Israel. He and his administrarion dont know what to do next, Saudis, Kuwait and UAE are not happy with their ”buddy” US who wrought destruction on them. I expect US to reconsider what is good for US whenever they can leve the mess behind them.
What you call the third way is to me just a variant of 2. It is a deeper and more insightful analysis than the shallow, short-term, and often contrived pronouncements that media has habituated us to; but still not much qualitative difference, analysis is analysis.
A possible actual third way is what Brian Berletic (https://rumble.com/c/TheNewAtlas) and ESC (https://escapekey.substack.com/) are doing: looking under the carpet to expose the hidden hand at work behind events. But Simplicius, perhaps sensibly, does not delve much into conspiracy theories anymore;, his Dark Futura sister site has been silent for months.
The problem with prediction is the level of complexity in the field of geopolitics coupled with the lack of really reliable data. The big picture is more easy to track because it has a fair degree of inertia and there is far more accurate data. On the tactical level, without a broad range of reliable inside Intel it's impossible to know day to day what could occur. For example, Trump may attack Iran tomorrow or may announce reaching an agreement with Iran. Both are equally plausible. On the strategic level we can see that the Iranians currently have an unassailable stranglehold of Hormuz and Trump has no clear solution.
Inertia is the key word. Once you identify where the (real) inertia is and where it is heading, you can predict pretty much. Same with lack of inertia and heading, it predicts failure and stalement.
We absolutely MUST stop pretending that Trump was helpless in the face of what Israel wants. Israel is a proxy state. The US is not some single entity. It is run by an Oligarchy which consists of criminal capitalists and has been dominated by the "Jewish Mob" since the neocons occupied the Pentagon under GHWB. They engineered the BCCI scandal to ensure their much more pliable stooge, Clinton, attained the Presidency.
There are other "criminal Capitalist" (is that an oxymoron? Or redundant?) who no longer trust the Jews. They supported the neocons (a synonym for "Jewish Mob") because they fell for the "bill of goods" that was suppose to increase the size of the pie for all. Now they are faced with losing their investment in China because the attacks on Russia and Iran have failed. They all believed their manipulation of the world economies would lead to US domination of the world and enhance their positions of power and prestige.
It is helpful to recall that Finkelstein says, "If you have the money to get to Israel and you don't go, you are NOT a Zionist." His definition is NOT up for debate because then you miss his (and my) point.
The Criminal Capitalists only care about satisfying their greed. People like Soros and Adelson donate to Israel because it makes them richer, not because they really care about being "good Jews". But their support does result in control of Congress through ADL/AIPAC which in turn, led to the dot.com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the theft of wealth during Covid.
The American Economy is engineered by these Criminals to steal wealth from Labor. If this isn't obvious to you, if you continue to believe naively that there are "market forces" at work, then explain away China's last recession was in 1979 and it has grown at 5%/year since then.
Yes there are -some- who will continue to support Israel, but they know it is a losing proposition now. The pro-Palestinian voices just will not shut up, and the world now hates -All- Jews. (In the past I would have tried to exclude some; like Mate, Finkelstein, Blumenthal from being "hated", but I don't think their "good works" off-set the overall disgust with Israel". They are in a tough position.
There is a simple reason why I did not subscribe: If I want to. I am forced to load an "app" from the so called Google Play spyware and identity theft resource onto some smartphone, and, as it seems, it is doubtful that I can then comment from my PC as I am doing now. So it seems I am forced to possess and use either an Apple, or a Google Android Smartphone, which I do not accept to need to. Whether I used the buy a coffee opportunity is not for you to be entitled to know.
In his interview today on Redacted, Col. Douglas MacGregor seems very confident that the US will begin new major combat operations against Iran within the next 48 hours. He did the same about a week ago or more, and he was incorrect then.
I think Macgregor will prove to be wrong again. I predict that the US will NOT start bombing Iran again until after Trump meets with Xi, which is supposed to happen on May 14-15 in Beijing. Trump will be able to use the threat of additional intense military aggression and extreme damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure and transport systems as negotiating leverage to gain concessions from China on other issues. We will see.
Trump will get exactly zero concessions from China.
In international diplomacy there are two things, words and actions.
Since China told the US to go and pound sand with their sanctions against Chinese refineries, we see that Trump can do as much to China as it can do to Iran - nothing!
The age of the USA unilateral power has ended at that moment.
Other countries are paying attention and shrug while continue buying Chinese Diesel and petrol goods because they have to, especially in Asia.
You might be right. But I'm not as optimistic as you are. I don't think either Iran or China "hold all of the cards", or that the US/Israel/Europe are now completely defeated and lack any ability whatsoever to use additional aggressive actions, either military or economic. I think they do. I don't think it's already over, not by a longshot. We will see.
Likewise, I don't buy the argument that Trump is "desperately seeking a way to end this war" that so many alt-media pundits keep repeating (not all, but most).
They never seek an end, they seek a pause or another perfide way to damage everyone that doesn't bow to their self proclaimed might. Just the might is getting smaller and smaller with every stupid set the empire does.
The 18th summit of BRICS this summer in India is about collaboration - the Empire is about confrontation - every sane human can see who really holds the cards in this.
Agree 100%, though the direction of travel has China ahead of the US and accelerating further ahead. The US are obviously desperate and making risky moves. They need to stem the fiscal haemmoraging but are locked into a system that is difficult if not impossible to control. We don't know where or when the crash will happen, but we do onow Empire is running full stream into a wall.
There are The Cards and then there are the very harsh lived realities of what the actual people of East Asia and the equatorial South are enduring and what the knock down effects are likely to be. From what i can tell from events so far in the Persian Gulf and nearby environs is that the USA & Friend(s?) can only obstruct and destroy at this point and these dynamics are getting more pronounced over time to the exclusion of all else. This leads to a bigger picture resetting (if you will) of global power structures….
MacGregor is a pompous blowhard , who has been predicting the end of the Ukraine war for well over 3 years. His head is well and truly up his American arse and that is his only perspective on anything.
Like is relative , he is better than any member of the Kagan clan , Shuck Chumer and the old fag Israeli hag Graham et al.
Not a big fan of septic tanks period. They all need to shut up, get off the stage and let the Brics guys have a go. Would be hard to do worse than the United States of Zion has done.
He's an odd fish. I often think he's a top drawer analyst, then he comes up with weird curve balls that don't make sense. He constantly insists that Chinese weapons failed in the indo/pak conflict last year. Why? Is it true? Why keep bringing it up when the question wasn't even asked?
I haven't seen any reports suggesting the Chinese J10s and air to air missiles underperformed. The Indian response beefing up their AD suggests the opposite.
The only thing that remains clear is that pundits and armchair experts seem never to tire when it comes to making grand pronouncements about what China is thinking and what they are likely to do!
Pure nonsens. The whole point of the war and the actions before(like Venezuela) by the Usa was to constrain Chinas access to oil. So why exactly would China would agree to this.
But as Helmer says, (if you read between the lines as he does) that China believes it has won WWIII. Trump has failed to constrain China's access to oil, and in any case, China is quickly moving away from oil. EVs are mandated for all government agencies and bureaucracies. China is deploying massive increases in (non-oil) energy supplies, including Thorium Reactors. China's GDP is larger than that of the US. The combined BRICS is larger than the G7.
Trump, and the neocons, have failed to reach their goal of constraining China. They may keep trying, China doesn't care.
If by constraining you mean: preventing China from doing business from the rest of the world, then the USA has a long way to go and it’s doubtful they have the means and endurance to get there. Sure they can sabotage the belt and road all they like but eventually such things get stabilized and locked down. But hey what do I know? We sure seem to be hitting multiple inflection points soon though….
I saw that show. He wasn't saying that it "would" happen but more like he would not be surprised if it did. His response was kind of convoluted.
The speculation over Trump's visit next week, 14 May, is all over the place. with some saying it won't happen.
For those that care, it was this youTube on Dialogue Works. The important part starts about 17 minutes, when Helmer talks about Modi going to Israel. Trump "wants" to do the same thing and have China stand with Israel. Trump will resume attacks -as-if- China approved. He did not say China would actually approve.
Wang said that that there's a "deal to be made" (Helmer called it possible). China will withdraw from Hormuz Strait if the US withdraws from Taiwan Strait. This will provide Trump with cover to resume the war.
-I- think this gives Trump a face-saving way to suggest he's won something so he can declare victory and go home. Mostly, I just hope.
Helmer emphasizes that the US rearming of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines complicates things even further.
He is expressing extremely skeptical possibilities. But all stuff "on the edge".
Nema responds with a "more reasonable" perspective. Helmer doesn't disagree. That wasn't the point.
Helmer thinks China does want to become the world's hegemon and they will do what they think is best. If that means abandonment of Iran and Russia, there's no problem. Helmer's continuing perspective is that Russia, China and Iran do support one another, but that they each would rather "go it alone" against the US. And TBF, support for one another doesn't come close to the mass hysteria generated in Europe against Ukraine.
It is "interesting" that in the US there's no "mass hysteria" supporting Iran's war, and it isn't at all universal when it comes to Ukraine, but in the end Americans are all greatly depressed and giving up on life. The "Epstein Class" has
"You've thrown the worst fear that can ever be hurled
The miltary operation was halted because of extensive damage to Israel and to US bases, that has been meticulously concealed by the censored media. And alt-media didn't dare contradict the official casualty reports, even though they were obviously expurgated.
But it is beginning to filter through that not only the munitions have been catastrophically depleted, but US bases in the Gulf have been practically obliterated, with extensive casualties. And Israel has all but been reduced to a failed state, like Libya.
The war with Iran has been spectacularly lost, and that is the real reason the US offensive has been halted, not by Trump, but by his handlers. Trump is just a blowhard figurehead, in the final reckoning his decisions don't matter shit. The Empire is ruled from behind the curtain, like Brian Berletic keeps telling us. And it is not in the Empire's interest to advance Israel's and the US's defeat to the stage where it becomes obvious to everyone.
I don't think that's what Berletic said about the "Empire's interest". On your other points, I agree. But the oligarchy may just double down anyway. They have "The Golden Billion" as a "Final Plan", and that cannot be ignored.
For them, it’s Victory or Death (usually someone else’s) so they most definitely will double down if they can…..Although it likely will not actually BE a double, but more of a sideways jackknifing followed by a multilateral fracturing….!!
Money is the only thing in the Empire of Corporations' interest. They could not care less about public perception in 2026. If enough money is invested in the energy projects dependent on destroyed GCC infrastructure, the Empire of Corporations will *absolutely* destroy the entire region. They could not care less about world perception, like, hello, we've had a 3 year livestreamed Holocaust and the Empire of Corporations doesn’t gaf about that. Besides, you live in a police state. There's not a damn thing the common people can do without uniting, which the Empire has done an absolutely spectacular job of preventing. So, yeah. It's that bad.
That, and some additional possible reasons to delay attacks:
- allows more time for US/Isreal to re-arm depleted weapons.
- allows time for more naval assets to arrive in the region.
- more time "not shooting" makes it more plausible for Trump admin to claim no need for Congressional approval to start again; use a different "operation" name.
It seems to me that predictions is a bit of a fools errand. Sure it may be likely, but then after crying wolf ten times what then is the point. May as well talk about probability and simply assess the known factors and well as the blank spaces. Most likely is that the RotW gets completely fed up with being held hostage by the USA and it’s reckless behavior, backs away less lowly, arms more quickly and is virtually guaranteed to divest from the dollar system. Just how and at what rate remains to be seen, but if I were a gamblin’ man…..
I replied to an old post, where someone had kept asking about Iran's oil storage and the effect on the oil wells. This is a very recent video discussion and Krapivnik has more recent experience in the oil fields:
Long story short, it's a totally made up concern (as I kept trying to explain to the other poster but he didn't get it for a while). . Oil wells don't work like what MSM was saying... and it also depends on the type of oil wells. And then the backstop is that Iran has already opened up multiple routes for its oil to keep flowing.. through the Caspian sea and utilizing Russian pipelines after that, land routes through Pakistan and some others etc. That's why the pictures of the Kharg island oil tanks being quite empty should not be a surprise. Iran is making bank by selling as much oil as it can.
Who hasn't been selling any oil? UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. How come we didn't hear a peep of concern about their oil wells having to be shut? People pls... the western MSM is just lies piled upon lies now, often not able to keep even their stories straight.
As for the quid pro quo about Iran letting some tankers through.. Simplicius, that is total BS.
Please understand human nature... Iran does hold all the cards... they got bombed.. they've been sanctioned like heck, lost a lot of important figures, so they ain't playing the appeasement game anymore. Why in the world would they even put up with that pretense? It's just more western MSM made-up BS being fed as 'insider info'.
Your comment on the Caspian Sea routes and Russian pipelines is an absolute dream or should I sat a fairy tale. How much oil do you expect to pass along this route? The Iranians do not have pipelines to deliver the oil and must reply on road tankers - i.e., a minimal supply. The Caspian routes and terminals are for incoming oil supplies for Iranian refineries. and not outgoing. Your statement is a pipe dream.
Empty fuel storage tanks on Kharg, bud. It's western photos that were released. China's oil reserves have only dropped by.... *drumroll*... 1 mil barrels since the war started. I guess the Iranians are magically teleporting the oil direct to China.
Please remember my fellow Americans, actually ALL of "the west" are the most propagandized populations in the entire world. And the worst part is they are all convinced that if they read 1 article they are also "experts" on everything.
Kharg island is running hot. The Iranians monthly seaborne crude sales have ramped up this year, from around 1.4 to 2 Mbps. I'm assuming most goes to China.
A lot of the US bombing effort has been directed at this rail line and its bridges. It's hard to say to what extent this has been repaired; it is generally quite easy to fix bombing damage to rail lines, which is why bombing them is only marginally practical. Bridges and depots are more vulnerable.
As does your knowledge of engineering. Any infrastructure that caters for incoming supplies can equally cater for outgoing ones. Same pipelines, same storage facilities, same tankers.
Yes and no. The shore infrastructure is probably adequate, if undersized. But I seriously doubt there are enough large tankers in the Caspian, and building them is a problem, as only riverine (Volga) and Black Sea shipyards are available; but the Black Sea is in a war zone, and the connecting canal is not sized for tankers. So that is the bottleneck, not shore facilities.
Azerbaijan has robust oil facilities, and possibly tankers; but Azerbaijan is essentially a hostile state to both Iran and Russia, despite ostensible neutrality.
I don't have much to say about Iranian oil to China in terms of the original comment, but as someone who works in petro chemicals, this is absolutely not true. Many refineries and storage terminals are 'one way' and literally don't have the infrastructure in place to do what your suggesting.
Equally, the idea that road and rail tankers could move a comparable amount of supply to pipelines and ships is ludicrous - road/rail barrels top out at about 30,000 litres per tank (less than that for heavy crude) - pipelines and VLOC vessels can move millions of litres in relatively short amounts of time. The cost and man power involved in moving that by road and rail would be absolutely unfeasible.
I can see that facilities designed only for offloading tankers might not be able to be used to fill them, but adaptations could sort that out and it would be a lot simpler than building such facilities from scratch.
If we look at prewar Iranian oil exports, they sum up to 2.5 million barrel per day, equalling 337,837 tons.That is one supertanker or 2-3 normal tanker ships per day given all oil was exported by sea transport.
Now, what would be the alternatives? Open Railway map (www.openrailwaymap.org) may give some clues.
There are actually four rail lines leading through central Asia and Russia. The shortest goes from northwest Iran over Bu#khara, Tashkent, Bishek, Almati, crossing the Chinese border at Sharkent to Ürümqi, opening routes to south and southwestern Xinjiang. even Tibet.
The next one, starting at Aqtau (reached either by ship on the Caspian or by railway from Teheran agglomeration) crosses all central Kasakhstan leading over Karaganda to the Dostyk border crossing into China towards Ürümqi.
The Russian routes are ways longer, requiring shipo transport to the Volga at Astrakhan, or to Chechnya before being loaded to trains. There are a couple of routes to Siberia, one going to Ulan Ude and then Mongolia to the Hubei-Beijing-Tianjin agglomeration, others further east over Inner Mongolia to Shandong etc., lately to North China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning).
As to capacity, A railcar tanker loads 72-75tons of oil, and 200+ tanker railcars per day and route are not unrealistic. That spells 60+k tons or 420-440k barrels per day in all directions. So far rail.
Ok, there is truck traffic as well. As trucks can drive all roads in the -stans, one can assume up to 1500 truckloads daily, mainly tanker semis at 40-45tons per unit, to be transported in all directions. They will most probably not run to Harbin :) but mind that the evolving -stans need fuel and run refineries as well. That would make other 60+k tons per day.
Lately, there is inland shipping. Tankers going the Caspian and the Deep Water Transport network in Russia may reach the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, even the Arctic harbours (White Sea canal), and the Moscow area. Typical inland tanker ships load 5k or 10k tons. It would not take many to take most of the rest of Iranian oil production.
And yes, cost is higher, but the rising oil price makes up for a lot. Moreover, supertankers cannot sail to Almati, Tibet, or Ulan Bator. It always needs rail, road, and at best pipeline transport to bring the fuel to the end destinations.
So while a total sea blockade would certainly hit Iran, alternatives do exist.
Good compilation of the alternative routes for oil transport.
I suspect, however, that Iran does not have a lot of idle rail, truck, or Caspian Sea tanker equipment on hand ready to fire up as needed to make up for the loss of marine transport capacity in the Persian Gulf.
In other words, what they have is already likely being used at high capacities.
The China-Iran Railway (in operation since May 2025), for example, is already operating at near max capacity, but has begun efforts to expand capacity by 50% or so. But even with that planned expansion, it can only transport around 10 percent of the pre-war capacity of the ocean-going tankers.
Could you just stop with the snarking please, there is no need for it at all and it brings in a childish schoolyard tone to the comments section. If you can't bring yourself to say something politely then don't say anything.
Yes, it is true that during the early days of the Pennsylvania oil rush (beginning in 1859), producers were often hesitant to shut down operating pumps for fear that the wells would become impossible to restart or would damage the formation.
Early operators feared that removing the pump or stopping the flow would allow the well to fill with water or sediment, permanently ruining production.
Key Historical Context:
Fear of Shutdowns: Early in the industry, there was a widespread belief that stopping the pumping machinery would mean losing the well entirely, as they were unsure how to restart production effectively once stopped.
Initial Challenges: Operators were inexperienced in dealing with the geological formations of Northwestern Pennsylvania, which often required constant, rather than intermittent, pumping to keep the wellbore clear of sand and water.
Technological Shift: Over time, improvements in pumping technology—including the introduction of specialized pumps, better well casings, and better understanding of the reservoirs—showed that wells could, in fact, be stopped and restarted without permanent damage.
Economic Factors: The fear wasn't just physical, but also economic. The early oil industry in PA was characterized by severe boom-bust cycles where prices could drop from $$$10 to 10 cents a barrel in a year. While operators initially tried to keep pumping to maximize early profits, they later developed techniques to "shut in" (shut down) wells during price crashes or oversupply.
By the early 1900s, as shown by surviving equipment, technology had advanced to allow for better maintenance and operation of oilfield equipment, making the "no-stop" fear a relic of the pioneer days
Ukraine's futile hopes to reduce Russian oil production: Has Kyiv fallen for a Russian myth?
May 7, 2026
, 4:31 PM
Oil production. Photo: Rosneft / Telegram
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively attacking Russian ports and refineries to disrupt Russian oil exports. A decline in exports could lead to a reduction in production. However, claims that production will not recover are a myth, says Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center.
"So, returning to the story, if Ukrainian attacks on Russian export capacity are massive, prolonged, persistent, and successful in forcing Russia to cut production and exports, Russia will have to cut production, and it won't be possible to restore production to Russia," Sergei Vakulenko said in a video podcast . "There's a very short answer."
On the one hand, Russian specialists are quickly repairing equipment and accelerating exports. On the other hand, Sergey Vakulenko advised everyone to recall the situation six years ago, when the novel coronavirus pandemic broke out.
"And during this very same Covid-19, OPEC+ countries cut production by more than 10 million barrels per day. Many of them reduced production by about a quarter. And, as we now know, production in these countries has quietly returned to its previous levels. And, in particular, we see that Russian production has also returned to its previous levels."
— said the expert.
According to him, in most cases, shutting down production at fields is beneficial to the fields themselves and can even improve subsequent production. The problem may lie with the well or equipment.
"This was a source of concern, including among Russian oil producers. And the issue was resolved in the following way. In many wells, production wasn't completely shut down; pump speeds were simply reduced. This was done precisely to maintain some flow, rather than having to restart the pump after a shutdown. So, there are methods."
— explained the senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center.
In his opinion, the stereotype that shutting down or reducing production will cause major problems is inconsistent with both practice and theory. This includes oil pipelines, which are shut down even in winter during preventive maintenance at oil fields, noted Sergey Vakulenko.
He believes he knows where this myth comes from.
"When Russia hadn't yet joined OPEC Plus, and when, for example, in 2008, its Arab partners would occasionally call out to it, 'Listen, you're in this boat too,' Russia had a standard excuse: 'You're fine out there in the desert, but we're here in the permafrost.'"
Thanks for that detailed response. Again Simp. keeps claiming some special neutral observer status that is complete BS.
Simp. quote "Some unverified reports had claimed Iran let a couple tankers pass to give the US Navy escort credit, and in return the US turned a blind eye to some Iranian tankers slipping through its “impenetrable” blockade as well. " I am guessing that Simplicious is the "unverified reporter" Imagine talking about OTHERS shilling for the Jewish media at the same time you are doing the exact same thing. IN fact, people can go back and check the first article after Israel/US attacked Iran. It was pure US propaganda, only after the world was forced to acknowledge the US failures did Simp. limp out an article that somehow Iran did not get blown back to the stone age.
Why do you keep reading Simplicius' articles, then? Are you an agent or a shill yourself?
I've been reading his content for a couple of years now and cannot detect any signs that he is shilling or being an agent. On the contrary, just like us, Simplicius is trying to figure out what's going on. He certainly has some bias toward particular sides of the conflicts, but he still tries to provide a holistic picture of the world stage. You cannot be completely neutral in today's world unless you're a sociopath or a super-enlightened being.
And yes, weaving in rumors makes the truth more apparent. Many so-called 'conspiracy theories' have proven true throughout the 2020s. So, why wouldn't it be plausible to assume that Iran and the US have made a deal to bolster domestic propaganda?
My take was "Why doesn't this affect the GCC more, since they are the ones who can't export, whose storage and refineries and other energy infrastructure are destroyed"
In the meantime, Iran has downed a MQ-9A surveillance drone, set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to manage the Strait of Hormuz and sent his Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to China for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, ahead of Donald Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping - guess who is taking the spotlight!
"Well, this is why the most enterprising and intelligent folk read independent outlets like this one here, rather than zioshill-owned corporate lackey chambers like the Atlantic—because virtually everything being “discovered” by them just now was long known to us and expounded on here before the conflict even began."
Oh please, you might throw your shoulder out of alignment.
There is a saying: It ain't bragging if you can do it. Simplicius does a good job of informing us of real world events, while the corporate press pushes narratives that have little relationship to reality. I think he's entitled to crow a bit about it.
Simplicius presents and delivers articles at to his own politics and not reality. Amazing how one man is an expert on Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, the Middle East and China.
He was and is correct on Russia but he is way off base on the Iran situation and offers no clear factual proof of his dedcutions.
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I think the US has no options other than to let Iranian tankers go through. Most are going to China. Who has quite a bit of leverage. They also have deep pockets. If Trump completely stops the flow of Iranian oil, China will just out bid US allies. Making the political situation even worse for US. Not to mention they market Trump is really trying to keep propped up is the bond market. He can lose oil and stocks, but not the bond market. Which he must protect not only from China, but also Europe. Which is why he can't completely abandon Ukraine. Sucks to be him
"China will just out bid US allies. Making the political situation even worse for US."
The US does not have allies, and making its vassals pay more is perfectly in line with US goals, which are always to increase dependence and obedience.
This is a controlled demolition of Middle Eastern energy production capabilities by the US petrodollar oligarchy, disguised as plausible deniability. It’s obvious.
And meanwhile supposedly intelligent people are cheering that “Iran has already won” while the Gringo Empire demolishes the World Economy for its profit.
...“Iran has already won” while the Gringo Empire demolishes the World Economy for its profit.
Let them eat their profit when the angry daddy's who can't feed their children coming for them. The french revolution taught us one thing: if you advise people to eat cake if they can't afford bread - you're to lose your head with great probability.
By the way, Iran has already won indeed plus all the people who stand with Iran, Palestine and Lebanon, Cuba, Venezuela etc.
I think many who appear to celebrate Iran is because it’s the only path available for reining in the neocon beast and not, as one might suspect, approving of Iranian actions.
Controlled demolition of the U$D as world reserve currency. After the Nixon gold default of 1971, I am amazed that it has taken this long. The US keeps making financial and geopolitical decisions that should lead to a rapid transition away from holding anything denominated in U$D.
But no other country or group wants to step up and assume the role.
Oil price inflation affects just about everything that people consume. Including the devaluation of the purchasing power of US Treasuries. Which can keep the US debt Ponzi rolling for a while longer.
It is puzzling that there is not a new "Bretton Woods" with the best and brightest trying to hammer out the new post-U$D system. Or perhaps it is being done in secret.
Agreed as to the fact and that it is obvious. Also a nod to Concerned C about how most folks are missing the big picture. Talking about the people here in this group and the alt press more generally.
Good to have a hobby and conspiracy theories are cheap, abundant , never die and if you can point at one, it obviously proves they are everywhere. No thinking required.
Agree completely, just with a minor correction: CIA weaponized the use of the term "conspiracy theories" with help from compliant media, but the term itself did exist prior to its weaponization.
No such thing as Coincidence according to Conspiracy theory, everything is connected you know to the Rosthchilds, Jesuits and Masons and that weird guy that lives 2 doors down.
"Well, this is why the most enterprising and intelligent folk read independent outlets like this one here, rather than zioshill-owned corporate lackey chambers like the Atlantic—because virtually everything being “discovered” by them just now was long known to us and expounded on here before the conflict even began."
Well said. We're lucky to have you, S. Keep up the good work.
I can understand Simplicius giving himself a pat on the back, as the past couple weeks of ceasefire has seen a number of trolls coming on here and berating him for giving his take on Iran, as it was 'obviously not his area of expertise'. While I don't always agree with Simplicius' take, I still believed he was 70-80% accurate, vs the total nonsense from the western press. Where he misses, IMHO, is a desire to seem fair and balanced and still give credit to the American machinations and that they might have. In reality, I have studied, lived and worked with the american elites, and I can tell you that I got the heck out of there as quickly as possible I didn't want to lose my soul in such a cesspit of imbecility, incompetence, and incoherence. What you guys see on TV when a puppet like Hegseth mouths off talking points which now contradict each other in the next min, is that kind of BS-spouting I had to deal with, and realized, these guys are really high on whatever they're smoking and there's no coming back from there.
It seems a bit like layers of inbreeding in that the propaganda was almost TOO good and they got waaaay too high on their own supply. Add to the industrial outsourcing, intentional dumbing down and the hollowing out of well….pretty much everything.
The fact that all the markets are soaring does indicate some confidence in the US position, though there are reasons for caution. The alt press's unrelenting gloating is, yet again, absurd. There will be a lot more people killed before the Iranian war is ended, and Europe has yet to begin to bleed. It will.
It does already bleed. Yesterday traffic chaos in a German border town at a tank station, fuel being 1,97€, coming from 1,65€ just two month ago. Dutch cars lined up like crazy since fuel in the Netherlands is now 2,40€ and above.
More than 10 000 flights are cancelled in Germany the last two weeks and rising due to lack of jet fuel. No to talk about how they think to fill the natural gas reserves over the summer for the next winter.
As Garland Nixon yesterday said correctly: If you can, get the F out of Europe now.
The US will get hit as well - maybe not that severe but for the 55% that live paycheck to paycheck, it will be devastating.
Thanks for the post Chris, I have been out of touch with Lilly for a few months. Indeed, great hearing her "from the street reporting." I grew up around a fair number of Germans (2nd-3rd generation)and they (at least my mates) were the smartest, hardest working, most disciplined people I know. And, charitable. Two of them, coming from working class backgrounds, have become very wealthy (liability law and manufacturing). I'm in the upper Midwest. I guess these guys represent "old Germany". The Germans in Europe have obviously lost a bit of the old character.
I started watching her about 10 years ago - when I was also making a few bushcraft videos on YouTube. I lived in Germany from 1985-1991 and loved my time there. I met a lot great folks there and in other countries I visited. Currently back home on Prince Edward Island.
Thanks Chris. I was in Germany (Hamburg) for the first time in 1970 as a 19 y/o college student. What I remember the most was encountering young Germans who spoke impeccable English, without a trace of an accent. All my people came to the USA in the 1880s..from Norway*. It really saddens me to reflect on the very sad trajectory Europe is on. At 74 y/o I'm near my "sell by date" but I have four granddaughters all under the age of nine. Worry!
*A Norwegian, Ole Rolvaag, wrote about the American immigration experience in a masterful book called Giants In The Earth. A tale of suffering and hardship. There's another Norwegian, V. Quisling, who personifies the contemporary "leadership" class in Europe now. I hope we are not as fncked as I think we are. Is it too late to take up bird watching? I'm about tapped out...reading about humans and the non-stop cruelty and idiocy.
People don't seem to understand this ..... including the Europeans who think that they still have a chance to get Russian oil and gas if the Ukraine conflict ends now. They don't... zero, zilch, nada... NYET. China and Russia signed 50 year agreement to have the oil and gas redirected to China and the pipelines are already more than half-built Russia tried to be coy for too long and kept supplying EUrope, and what did they get for that? 100K dead russian soldiers and some civilians. They have long memories... they will never ever want to supply Europe with energy again.
Why is that so critical? People forget.. 1 barrel of oil = 100 years of man labor with machinery use. Oil is embedded energy that makes everything else in the modern economy possible..... not just making stuff, but making modern farming possible, the transport of goods... the internet/wifi that people now treat as a ubiquitous good. no energy, everything goes dark. I've already told my kids - I have a van which runs on diesel... loaded up, it's 3000kg. 1L of diesel allows that van to climb a 100m high hill in a few min, say along 3-4km of road. How many man would it take to push that same 3000kg van to the top of the hill and how long will they take to do it? Oil is freakin powerful.... it makes modern civilization possible....
Once you understand that... you also understand that western AI a it now stands, being a huge energy hog without creating much real value in return, is a dead-end venture. Sure, the state authorities keep directing fresh 'investment' into AI to keep the bubble from popping... but that doesn't change the end point. Within a year, most of the AI centers in the US will NOT be running as the energy will be needed by the remaining people just to survive.
Thanks SG- a great, accurate summary of where we are and what lies ahead. The one thing people don't "get" about the green energy thingy is that there's no
energy density there like with petro-derivatives. I go to a very popular coffee shop close to my suburban house and in a conversation with the mgr there, he reports that his biz is off 15-20%. He said 20 oz plastic cups (1000 ct) went from $80-/1000 to $160.00/1000 ct). Gas here is $4.45/ gallon-regular. I expect restaurants and coffee shops to have rough sledding as a full gas tank will take precedence over a restaurant meal or $4- coffee. Thanks Don you bloated, ignorant pos. My oldest son lives in SOCAL-good luck, dude. Expecting Nuclear energy to come back fast and hard. Fingers crossed.
The knockdown effects are not escapable. The upside being that everyone in the USA minus the extremists is saying a very big WTF in regard to the politicians and parasite class….
“Yes I understand the idea that when The Blue Team gets back in power everything will be peachy……”
"Russia tried to be coy for too long and kept supplying EUrope, and what did they get for that? 100K dead russian soldiers and some civilians. They have long memories... they will never ever want to supply Europe with energy again..."
Don't take this the wrong way, because I think Europe does have a problem here, but this particular part does not make sense. You surely don't think anybody was fooled about how that oil Russia was supplying was being used, do you? And yet it was being supplied and people in the comments on this very site are constantly talking about how great it has been for the Russian economy. The billionaires were supplying it, and Putin was approving it. They'd sell their oil where it makes the most money even if they knew it would be converted to some super-lethal gas that would be shipped to Europe the next week for use on Russians.
The problem is not the Russian memory, which will have nothing to do with it, but Asian wealth, which will have everything to do with it.
I'm glad you put a timeline on your assertion that AI centers will not be running. I would take the other side of that bet, secure in the knowledge that the people controlling the flow of energy would rather the masses starve than loosen their grip on that control.
When the AI energy wall really hits the USA, think: barrel bombs lobbed in unison at these leviathans. Oh and those massive data centers? Yeah no, that aint for running LLMs….
Excuse me.... at the height of the dotcom boom, I already knew the crash was baked in. Same for the GFC..... if you can't spot obvious fakery , then you can't really see anything. Anyways, anyone still paying attention to the US stock markets as 'info' is seriously deluded.
Really? Then why are the UAE oligarchs panicking like nobody's business and begging the Fed for a swap line? You really don't know the 'rich' western people... except for a handful who actually cash out and keep real store of value, most of their wealth is only paper wealth, and often tied up in leverage and linked to other stuff. Most private equity is now locked up with no redemption possible - that is a sure sign that the valuations given are fake and not redeemable...
The current situation is such that a 'rich' doctor and lawyer in the US, over fancy dinners, get encouraged by their wealth advisors to park a huge chunk of their net assets with such private equity... and now they are actually cash poor. if their business starts to see a decline (less people able to afford overpriced medical service or legal advice), then they're actually starting to struggle to pay their bills... as they can't liquidate any of their so-called assets.
That's where we are now... I saw the same situation happening before the dotcom bust and GFC and made plans accordingly. So it's not just empty words talking, but active prep to take advantage of desperate folks trying to get rid of stuff...
It's info about corruption, insider trading and theft of imaginable wealth.
There are no 'markets' there are people who trade funny papers and claim that they are worth something. Those people are usually 10% of the population in western countries.
The rest is strangled, without any saying about it, by insurance companies and pension-fonds.
There is nothing real about stock markets since a financial economy is no real economy - it's a ponzi scheme.
Are you trying to say something of any substance? Or just trying to make clever sound bites? If it's that most people are not clutching pearls, who gives a damn what "most people" are clutching? Certainly not the neocons. And most people *will* clutch, or rather gag, when the stock market crashes, since that will be used to create another massive transfer of wealth to the rich.
And General Butler is long dead and as such his comments have no bearing on current geopolitical issues as he is and was out of date. War is a racket but it is currently being controlled.
hello peace!
This is just the beginning of 3 WW. France has just send a carrier group "Charles deGaulle" to unblock Hormuz. Previously Macron denied any chance for involvement. Possibly he is compromised by Epstein. The other countries will shortly follow, sometimes under "humanitarian aid" banner, but running logistics for fighting armies. Or occupying parts or whole countries in the ME, new colonies. The UK no longer colonisers, but liberators.
War will be sometimes slowing, like now, to rapidly develop the next month.
For capitalists the next step is depopulation, so not only fertiliser shortage, but nuclear dirty bombs causing crops to be destroyed and not harvested, famine, trans border and civil wars. Mass migration from stricken Middle East and Africa, causing endemic illnesses to spread. Still, there would be another planned pandemic 2, deadlier and more restrictive on human rights, as the previous one. Social engineering at new level, fuelled by AI pictures spread over the mass media, virtual reality comes closer.
Biological agents, pesticides, sprayed on it's own country population to frame some fictitious terrorist organisation or foreign power as a pretext for military mobilisation and war.
As 80% world trade is maritime, the major world seaports, which are in Asia and China, will be blocked or blown. A large nuclear bomb in the middle of Pacific as warning, a clear message. Or large ship with fertiliser or LNG blown up at docks, destroying the whole port.
For them there is no need anymore for a large workforce, artificial intelligence does the work. Humans do expect decent wages, medical care, pensions and working/human rights. Robots don't.
Epstein class does't care about working class. Never did. That's why there were 2 world wars and countless wars around the world to boost nationalism, hate and control narratives. Now cannon fodder will have a stronger meaning. Humans are literally disposable for the system.
The ruling class would survive in deep bunkers full of food for many years, even over nuclear winter times.
"France has just send a carrier group "Charles de Gaulle" to unblock Hormuz....."
Cool, we'll all see how good Charlies' reverse gear is.
Scott Ritter yesterday already pointed out that this France joke of a carrier is even diminish the force abilities since it is causing more headache than fighting capabilities.
A sunken french carrier will be shrugged over while a sunken US carrier will provoke more stupid bombing from the USA.
France is a nuclear power with some 290 bombs. They can use them independently, outside of NATO control. "France remains the only NATO member to not participate in its Nuclear Planning Group"
If France even thinks in this direction, there will be no France anymore.
The times of the 'grand Nation' are over since Dien Bien Pu!
Micron and nuclear is like Merz reading Lenin ;-)
Let some people have their delusions... though I think it's just paid trolls trying different angles to throw fudge on the situation. It will become obvious when reviewed a couple weeks from now. As I've said before, if most of the folks on here have the typical memory of American Joe sixpack (aka 6 seconds), then ya, all these nonsensical threats might seem threatening. But in reality, Chihuahuas like France are backing at their own reflection in the mirror.
France? Meh….arent they busy witnessing the slightly delayed collapse of their entire welfare system in real time? Carrier group? Really? To do what? Get targeted by the Houthis before they actually get in theater?! Metal Talks and BS Walks.
Not even tiny Macron is so bombastic that he will use Nuclearisation against Iran.
Scary stuf...meanwhile afreakans the muzz own Garlicville.
France can bomb Iran and nothing would happen.
It will not!
FAFO….the entire world changes when something like this occurs. Not even an oracle such as yourself has a clue just how this pans out and pretending you do is StupidFake&Ghey
In a world where politicians rape babies and eat them it's hard to rule anything out, but it's still unlikely that Micron would nuke Iran. It wouldn't clear the Strait, and it would likely guarantee a complete cessation of oil flow through the area. Micron won't even send troops to Ukraine, so I'd guess he'll keep his precious aircraft carrier far out of range.
Just wait until the position of the western elites become even more unstable. Then they will do their trick.
Not so worried about losing equipment or sailors, the real ouch will be the public celebrations around the world.
The creature of Jekyll Island, Operation paperclip, JFK/USS Liberty, 9/11 and Covid. All clearly dismissed as conspiracy theories, in spite an abundance of contrary evidence.
Their solution? Give nuclear weapons to Ukraine, so we can fight ww3 and prevent Iran from getting them.
Sure why not?
The strait of Hormuz is completely mined by Iran - Iran is not quaking at the French coming- Macron made a separate deal with Iran re oil - think the French ships are coming in solidarity and support of their oil source Iran, Do not awfulize - the US and Israel have been greatly reduced in their capacity to respond due to attacks by Iran that have totally isolated Israel, reduced arsenals, closed all ports and neutered her Re-supply prospects with airfields cratered and not accessible and leaving logistical networks in Israel gutted by 90%. The country is collapsing. No large Re-supply aircrafts can land anywhere in the country, 120,000 troops stranded and nutrition and water and all weapon supplies compromised, huge armament depots destroyed. That is why the IDF was in the UAE being used to defend a former GCC oil producer as Iran attacked it - Israel’s last hope in the ME for access to oil- all their stores of oil have been destroyed. Plus the Emiratis cannot trust local tribes - guards for the emirs and leaders are all provided by the IDF. Israel has been Gazanized in their own country by Iran-no food, no way out, no Re-supplies available, people cut off from any way to travel as so many bridges and rail lines have been destroyed, no where for aircraft to land re-supply planes, no way to distribute to the army and civilian population even if stores could be brought in, Iran took Israel out through years of planning and with very little direct loss of life a few days ago. Logistically neutered Israel - amazing feat, congrats Iran- brilliant planning, a coordinated effort no has seen before using open info available to those who choose to follow it. Tracking in ways most never considered. 47 years of isolation of Iran was put to good use - they planned and plotted and they have created a well educated population with engineering skills beyond compare.
has anyone seen Netanyahoo anywhere, lately?
He, Bibi, is now irrelevant given the reality therapy the population is experiencing - a country used to total care from womb to grave disrupted by war and the loss in IDF lives they are suffering and now no food supplies and access to any travel- . A leader cannot lead a decimated country; what is the plan- chaos bred total chaos and here the Israeli’s are isolated like Gazans in their own country. The evil rhetoric coming from rabbinic leaders and other Israeli citizens will need to change if they try to immigrate to another country - their hate speech will no longer be tolerated. Reparations? US rebuilding via Halliburton of an apartheid state? Let’s vote on this. - the Board of Peace no longer able to build a resort in Gaza, who is supplying Gaza now that there is no access to Israel - (wow Jared Kushner has $2 billion dollars of Saudi Arabia’s leader MBS’s funds - has MBS asked for a refund?) All Israeli and .Zionist oligarch funds must now go to rebuild Israeli infrastructure - the Iron Dome didn’t work- Israel a pariah state no on wants to live in any more. Major changes afoot in Israel me thinks. Long over do.
seeing is believing.
Not decimated!
AI has, Mary-lou
of course, artificially imagined
A new species of super being - with six fingers on each hand.
Ole Six-Fingers may have gone in to early retirement….
ol'6 fingers still around (Starmer/Zelensky) - https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/640/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2025/3/1/bbde46b3-2cfc-4db4-a102-74398f8619f4.jpg.webp
YOWZA! Where will all the murderous hatred and killing of these blood-thirsty Zionists finally wind up at? KILL--KILL--KILL! Yep--right upon their front door's threshold and it is all self-inflicted. Dog eat dog. In their blind hatred, Jews will start killing other Jews. What goes around--comes around. Karma, fate, justice--call it what you will.
Like we "seasoned citizens" always remind the young 'uns: "Age and wisdom ALWAYS defeats youth and strength."
Iran: celebrating its 2,500th Persian birthday.
Israel: a 'synthetic nation' created out of thin air--won't make its 100th birthday.
Are you sure about that?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iran#Classical_antiquity
Watch any number of videos that illustrate the time lapse creation and dissolution of nation states. They are all synthetic with fluid boundaries. This one illustrates the territory of and surrounding modern Iran.
https://youtu.be/WsiNNvQZsvQ
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." ~ Yogi Berra
you remind me of what a friend in Canada told me his grandfather told him about his time in German concentration camps. He said the ugliest thing he saw in those camps was seeing jews sell out each others to germans.
Psychopaths don't have any loyalty to anyone and this applies to this particular psychopath support group masqueraded as a whatever they claim they are these days
China is ignoring US sanctions to normalize the Strait of Hormuz, France is also following China’s lead re the Strait - normalization of the area via non aggressive stance- just do it - a better response- watch what Iran is planning in the meantime - 47 years of marginalization has not marginalized this Persian civilization - they are ready for any contingency - well educated, long range planners, a chance of a life time to recalibrate life in the gulf on their terms. Long live Iran.
So the little pocket Napoleon, Macaroon and his Inspector Clouseau navy are going open shipping lanes in Hormuz , after Trump’s embarrassing belly flop in shallow end of the kids pool.
Utter drivel, and that was just the first sentence, the rest is beyond satire.
To be fair it does make a nice to trial balloon to knock out of the sky….
In more ways than one.
his tranny husband made him do it
Will the frog ship shit house explode or will it be the "pastry" kitchen or perhaps those auto combusting, soiled frog undies in the laundry room of Micron's rusty tub?
I hope the French have those white flags all ironed and ready to raise!
Not to worry, Bro! When that Frenchie carrier goes down to Davey Jones' Locker--Bibi Mileikowsky Naval Salvage Corp. will grab that sweetheart deal. MONEY and POWER is all they are interested in.
Human lives? honor? compassion? Forget it!
I thought France sent the carrier many weeks ago?
>France has just send a carrier group "Charles deGaulle" to unblock Hormuz. Previously Macron denied any chance for involvement. Possibly he is compromised by Epstein. The other countries will shortly follow, sometimes under "humanitarian aid" banner, but running logistics for fighting armies.
LOL Your fantasies are funny.
>For capitalists the next step is depopulation, so not only fertiliser shortage, but nuclear dirty bombs causing crops to be destroyed and not harvested, famine, trans border and civil wars. Mass migration from stricken Middle East and Africa, causing endemic illnesses to spread.
Ah yes, it's the RIGHT that wants mass immigration, not the Left! LOL
Your beloved communist parties wouldn't have any representatives in any Western parliament without your fellow blacks and browns. Leftists would not have won A SINGLE NATIONAL ELECTION in Britain, France, Germany or Sweden after the 1990s without imported muds like you voting.
But keep pretending.
not true at least in the UK - most white people I know voted for Blair in 98 - even I did I am embarrassed to say - he seemed much better than that clown Major
too bad he turned out to be a psychopath
The Houthis on their own took on the US/UK navy alst year and forced them, to withdraw from the Red Sea. I doubt Iran will lose a wink of sleep over this French PR stunt.
For them there is no need anymore for a large workforce, artificial intelligence does the work.
and the feeling is mutual - who needs a pedo class of predatory psychopaths
By stirring up nationalism, racism the rulers are able to divide and rule.
Yet people are voting for the system. All mass media, means of communication, educational system are strictly controlled.
There was a very strong anti-war movement in the UK before the 2 WW and before Iraq wars, yet those wars were pushed through and people were send to front and butchered.
In Ukraine the majority were against hostilities against Russia, Zelensky won on anti-war platform - yet within a year from election he was already conspiring with the USA for confrontation.
I used to believe he honestly tried to enforce Minsk Agreements, but after seeing his mocking display at one of the Normandy meetings, I dropped that illusion.
He was all in for confrontation from the beginning. Imagine history writing about you being the Iron Fist that balkanized Russia. OMG
Well there ya go….scintillating summary! You are nearly ready for your own ‘stack! Seriously though, best of luck in the mystery bunker. Mebe go watch season 2 of Fallout?!
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
African countries have been developing what amounts to a challenging prospect to "commercial" fertilizers....it's home grown environmentally bio-friendly green effective natural fertilizer. In some countries like Tanzania, they have been witnessing political/multi-national corporations aggressive counter attack measures for this development. Take a lucky guess what the status quo will be if the blockade/war continues.
It's the big Agribusiness corporations that have taken over many countries in the global south that will be impacted. Many of the global south nations have farmers STILL engaged in farming on a local level whilst in let's say US (very sad story) established farmers cannot meet the cost of inputs vs the price they get for their yield. Many farmers have had to sell their farms. It's a widely known story, search anywhere on YouTube to see interviews. So...yeah, many global south nations will hurt less in the short run (and recalibrate their farms in the long run) but will endure because corporate Agribusiness hasn't infested itself that much and that's no only because of country's policy towards agriculture (and against GMO) but also because of poverty (or slow "3rd" world development). So Africa will be ok.
As for oil, many nations are now in talks of building Refineries. It's no joke when you hear Iranian leadership speak about a new global order. There is a shift in policies set off by the war against Iran and it's ensuing closure of the Hormuz strait. A new paradigm is manifesting.
Brasil aqui! Abraços fraternos a todos que lutam contra as injustiças atuais.
Once again, the people in the US responsible for this have paid zero real cost for their actions, and are preparing for the next round of the kinetic war, while the alt-media is engaged is yet more self-congratulatory circlejerk activity before the war is over. The same way it did with Syria, and we know how that ended, and the same way it has been doing it with Ukraine for more than four years, and we see how that one is going too.
Trump is alive, Hegseth is alive, Vance is alive, Rubio is alive, not a single US general has been killed, not a single US oligarch, same in Israel.
Zero deterrence has been imposed, meanwhile Iran has been shifted into the category of countries that can be bombed at any time, the same way Iraq and Syria were back in the days, i.e. it is in a death spiral.
Iran has some meaningful moves it could play now, such as:
1) >100 kt on a Qaem-100, sent to the Nevada test range or to some spot 20-30 miles off the Florida coast directly adjacent to Mar-A-Lago, to sent a message about capability and intent.
2) Containerized Shaheds and missiles begin to take out billionaire mansions along the US coasts off cargo ships.
But it has done nothing of the sort.
It hasn't even sunk a single US ship. Not even the ship that killed the 168 girls in Minab.
It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine attacks Moscow on the 9th or just how they'll salami slice themselves out of a meaningful Russian response. They'll do something, no doubt, that will violate the Russian declared ceasefire in Moscow, and odds are overwhelming that Russia will do nothing in retaliation.
Meanwhile Swedish reconnaissance drones fly freely close to Black Sea targets and Finland allows drones through its airspace on their way to St. Petersburg and points east.
We are all rooting for them to not just attack but hit it.
Why? I'm sure you don't think Putin will carry through on the threat he made to take action four years overdue, do you?
Either way it will help.
Either he will do it, or it will bring the coup one step closer, if it does not trigger it outright.
I don't think you're giving Putin enough credit here. He'll do something half-assed that will look like an attack on the city but won't hurt anyone. Maybe knock out the telephone service or something and count on the alt press to declare how fierce and decisive it was and yet how miraculously measured, wise and nuclear-response avoiding.
I am afraid that is a possibility, but the threat was unusually specific this time and it did not come from him, but from the military
There is no relevant political power in Russia able to organize a coup.
Putin white gloves have cost maybe thousands casualties on the RF Armed Forces. Persisting will lead to defeat or revolution.
Not thousands, hundreds of thousands.
If a proper ruler had been in the Kremlin all of Ukraine all the way to Uzhgorod would have been Russian since 2014, with a couple thousand casualties at most.
Even with the tragic mistakes of 2014-16, in 2022 the same could and should have been accomplished with 20-30K KIA max.
But it wasn't, because we had the traitor/clown in the Kremlin in charge of decision making.
You're adorable...
China and India deserve a little of the blame for this. IMO, though, Putin should have ignored them by 2023 and finished the damn thing. They'd have adjusted.
Putin is Russia's president, not China's or India's.
And this is an existential war.
He’s their bitch, though. And more to the point he did need to try to make sure he kept them as trade partners. Not in fundamental disagreement with you, though.
If you act like your enemy, you'll become your enemy.
Just killing people because you can - what is that? It's a depraved western mindset that needs to be eradicated.
Of course Russia is annoyed by NATO and the west but they're winning plus the West is all dripping and drooling but no real biting. Because they're shitting their pants and even the totally insane Merz, Macron and Starmer know - if we really cross the line to wage war against Russia, there will be non of our armies left, probably even no Germany, France and UK. Finland, Sweden and Poland have painted a mark onto their own backs. Stupid does as stupid is.
Nobody is calling for killing random civilians though.
What should have been done long, long, looooong ago is to wipe out the Kiev elites and the Western intell staff there.
The Ukronazis meanwhile are doing exactly that -- 13 civilians injured in Bryansk this morning.
Nobody in Kiev has been touched in response.
So naturally these strikes continue and only escalate.
This one isn't like you! Obviously Kiev needs to be smashed - and I'm less concerned about civilians in this war, at this point, than I used to be - but I maintain it's the US that needs to be touched.
Of course the US has to be touched too, we are not in disagreement
Ok, but don't you think Kiev should return to Russia. That can't happen unless the people in Kiev are at least comfortable with that option. Look what 70 years of not making peace with palestinians achieved for Israel. How's Israel'Hezbollah decapitaion going? Not great. The elites in Kiev have acted perfectly to return Kiev and the entire country to Russia. They created a system where men are just meat for no purpose or benefits. Be calm, the UAF will collapse by march-august 2027. Drones are the barbed wire of our times, but they are a very obvious single point of failure for the entire UAF relying on chinese commercial components. You talk a lot of nukes on western Ukrakne. No need, at this point there is nobody left to fight an insurgency. One nuclear emp and 95% of UAF figting power is lost, a couple of tens of thousands conventional emps will do the same(deliverd by gerans maybe). No drone system is immune to emps. It can't be, fighter planes have gold in their canopies to survive, and will still lose most sensors. Starlink terminals? Lol, not immune at all.
>How's Israel'Hezbollah decapitaion going
Hezbollah is a grassroots movement.
So you do decapitation and the leaders get replaced with those who were smart enough to survive, and they continue the struggle.
Zelensky's junta isn't anything like that. Decapitation will actually work in that case.
>You talk a lot of nukes on western Ukrakne
Yes, to cut off logistics with Poland and Romania, not on cities
And yes, EMPs should have been used a long time ago.
Yup kill ‘em all (again) says General Mangler with his usual considered commentary. Get a shrink.
It's about time all the bridges across the Dinepro should be eliminated. Put and end to any thing moving to the front.
The moment when that would have made a difference has long passed.
"Ukrainian" drones are hitting Perm and crossing the Urals daily now
You move the line of contact to the Dnieper and what happens? Maybe they won't be able to cross the Urals. But other than that absolutely nothing will change.
You have to eliminate the whole proxy.
And that necessitates taking out the transport links with Europe.
Likely Europe itself too.
Taking out the bridges exposes the logistics to wider attack and depletion. It's incremental, but the results would be crippling to Ukraine. The drone issue will not persist at the current level - Russia will fortify it's air defense and subdue the Ukrainians effect.
just the jew....
Always with the same delusional garbage.
Your suggestions of what Iran might do is escalation. Deterrence is thousands of people making hundreds of thousands of decisions every day to avoid escalation. One does not "impose" deterrence.
Where such an event occur, I'd first consider it to be a false-flag attempt to rally MAGA and allow the release ICE on a gullible population.
Iran is note Syria. There are no OPCW coverups of White Helmets rescuing non-existent victims of a phony Chemical attack. The NED/CIA/MI6 traitors have been exposed and eliminated as a threat.
The Iranian FM is in Beijing today.
Trump will be there is a week.
China and Russia are not going to abandon Iran.
Xi is going to handle Trump the same way he did Pierre Trudeau years ago, sending him scuttling away covering his ass with both hands. Trump may react differently, but the result will be even more pressure on Trump. US corporation investment in China is enormous. Many of those companies will not be able to survive without China. One possible threat is for China to halt all shipments of the resources even commercial corporations need to manufacture.
The energy blockade that Trump engineered has been exposed as a giant confidence scheme to get the "West" ever more dependent on US energy resources. The development of the Alaska North Shore gas fields would have been infeasible without the blockade.
We really don't know if Iran has sunk any ships. There are reports that it has, followed immediately by other reports that they haven't. We do know that the Ford is returning to the US home port.
I will not be surprised if AF-One suffers a catastrophic "accident" on its way to or from China. The "Jewish Mob" is losing its control over the American "Epstein Class".
Russia has a lot of Jews in Israel. Orlov suggests that should they return to Russia, they be executed. The Brooklyn Jews are apparently still buying confiscated homes in the West Bank.
Stop being so impatient. Your hot-headed responses will just incite more escalation and accomplish nothing.
>Your suggestions of what Iran might do is escalation.
Because what will the US do then? Start a full-scale war? Do you people even listen to yourself?
>The Iranian FM is in Beijing today.
>Trump will be there is a week.
Yes, Trump will be there. Why are the Chinese not arresting, sentencing and executing him for being the new Hitler?
Yes, the US will then respond with escalation, up to and including nuclear war.
The Chinese don’t arrest Trump for the same reason.
You seem to have no understanding of the psyche of the American Oligarchy/”Epstein Class” Have you not heard of their “Plan Z” of the “Golden Billion”? They are prepared to survive a nuclear war. Some of them even desire it. Punch them in the nose and they will punch back harder including the “Sampson Option”. They are insane from the perspective of the “common people”.
I forget who came up with the analogy, but Brian Berletic gave credit when he explained that the US is like the violent drunk in a “Dive Bar” who just wants to fight. He goes around pushing everyone around to make himself feel tough. Several people could easily over-power him but they don’t want the violence. It’s just “better” for everyone that he somehow be persuaded to be lured into a taxi and driven home.
Until you grasp this bedrock fact, your responses and suggestions are ridiculous. You’re the “other bully” in the bar that just wants to “kick ass” no matter what the odds. Screaming “hold me back fellows, otherwise I’m going to kill him.” But none of your friends do anything, because they know you’re just being phony.
No, they won't, because they will not risk the US mainland.
That is when they will back down.
You cannot discount the "Golden Billion". It has been a recurrent theme for a couple of decades now.
https://substack.com/@fijirefugee/p-193974188
Maybe do a web search on it. There are tons of articles explaining it.
"They" don't care about the USA.
I agree and I spent 14 years living all over JUSSA.
They care less about Americans than they care about Ukraine
>China and Russia are not going to abandon Iran.
They already did that.
What is your definition of "abandon" vs "sovereignty"?
Iran's FM was in St. Petersburg recently. He came away happy.
He is in China today.
Yesterday China's FM called for Hormuz to be open, "As soon as possible." A point on which the entire world agrees. There was no condemnation of Iran. No threats issued to Iran by China.
Iran is "handling the situation" and does not need Russia and China to tell it what to do. OTOH, Iran wants the war to end so, of course they are not objecting to China furthering talks.
What the 2 GMs said behind closed doors is unknown. John Helmer (discussed elsewhere in this post) assumes that China wants to become a hegemon on the same order as the USA, so China will be willing to compromise with the USA to achieve that goal. (He also said he was going out on a limb in making this prediction of compromise. We won't know anything until Trump leaves China. And most of that will be pure BS.)
China is buying Iranian oil. It has taken a baby step in saying it won't worry about US secondary sanctions in its dealing with Iranian oil.
Where's the betrayal?
https://johnhelmer.net/who-gives-a-hug-china-changes-its-position-towards-iran-us/#more-94166
"To Rubio, Wang announced that the Taiwan Strait was a higher geopolitical priority for China than the Hormuz Strait, and that if President Donald Trump agreed, he and President Xi would enjoy their summit meeting on May 14 in a celebration of the “U.S.-China relationship…"
John Helmer noted that China is ready to trade Hormuz for Taiwan and to betray iran. He follows Chinese blogger and also the famous Chinese professor. According to J. Helmer they all say that.
That's no surprise, of course China cares more about the Taiwan Strait than Hormuz.
Helmer did NOT say China would betray Iran. His Dialog Works video of 2 days ago is very complex to understand, but no where did he say "betray".
A compromise by China with the USA need not sacrifice anything to do with Iran. It -might- but it doesn't have to.
Doesn't "everyone" want a quick end to the war?
All in all, China wants no excuses for having to cancel the meeting with Trump. Trump is an idiot who generally acts on whatever it was the last guy who talked to him suggested.
It is too easy to not hear what Helmer meant but what you think he meant.
I see a lot of common ground between Sleboda and Helmer. Helmer though is more obtuse.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/196715457
You are pushing some old guy's opinion as a fact. FFS
Given what is at stake here, China and Russia should have done what they did for Korea back in the 1950s, i.e. gone in directly with their own forces. Or at the very least done what NATO did for Ukraine.
The VKS and the Chinese air force should have been flying sorties out of the southern Russian airfields and perhaps Pakistan too, to shoot down Israeli and US jets, the Chinese (because they have a much bigger industrial capacity and are not in an active war, unlike the Russians) should have been non-stop airlifting HQ-XX systems with Chinese crews into Iran, and Chinese and Russian anti-ship missiles should have made it impossible for the US fleet to come anywhere close to the Iranian coast (assuming Iran indeed has problems with over-the-horizon targeting, and the reason no US ship has been sunk yet is not the Iranians cucking on their own).
And, of course, all that should have been put in motion after the 12-day war the latest.
But as far as we know no serious hardware was sent whatsoever.
Ukraine has Russia occupied.
China (as Helmer pointed out) has had worse luck with military adventures than the USA.
Iran is not Korea. The US forces are already quite depleted. Munition stocks are low.
Iran has destroyed 16 American bases. The US logistics lines are severed. (Have you not seen the meals being served on the Navy ships?) Iran is shooting down US/Israeli aircraft now, and destroying them on the ground.
I am not aware of the US or Israel deploying any ballistic missiles.
China has already sent some HQ-22s to Iran
Russia has been sending AD systems to Iran for over 2 years now.
Iran's own anti-ship missiles have kept the US navy nearly 1000Km away.
The US naval blockade is a farce.
A Navy destroyer did approach the strait. Iran could have hit it but instead dropped a shell just off its bow. The video shows how close it was.
You keep wanting to escalate because you think it will mean something. It will just mean the US becomes more committed and then the infrastructure of the entire GCC will be wiped out.
There are new reports today (7 May) that 3 destroyers tried to transit the strait. They were fired upon but to me, it looks like neither side wanted to actually hit anything. Other sources say the attempted transit was turned back well before the ships got close to the strait.
All in all, Iran seems to be doing “just fine”. Trump appears to want to stay out of Beijing next week, but he needs the Chinese to “disinvite him.”
"Given what's at stake here..."
Maybe just listen to the first 10 minutes of this Stan Krapivnik interview. The number of US targets that need to be taken out to reduce the US to a medieval economy: 47.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ir8ZaqdhAB8&
The One Trick Pony strikes again! 😴
On any of these moves by Iran, the USA would respond with nuclear annihilation of Iran.
With the last ceasefire Iran is defeated anyway.
just make sure no jew is safe the world over....
Nice write up of the latest garbage released from US.
Yesterday Simplicius had an article about the Ukraine War and I was a bit appalled to find out that most of the usual commentators wasnt there.
I think you should pay Simplicius some respect and at least buy him a coffee if not signing for a paid subscription.
As for the development in the World…it is going to be way more rougher than previously expected.
…it is going to be way more rougher than previously expected.
Only not expected by economic morons who think US$ buy you things that are not there.
C'mon Frank, the markets are looking great! Everything's peachy!
Like Denis, right?;)
The paid articles a like a holiday on a beautiful tropical island.
As always, those who have money to spare get the best products and services.
There's a general trend on comment boards you'll notice if you spend enough time on them. Basically, as time progresses there's less and less factual information presented and more and more uninformed opinion, until the latter so outweighs the former that people who're actually looking for facts just give up, and the board decays into yet another social media forum. I rarely post here anymore for that exact reason, although I do respect Simplicius' work and read every article.
I agree. I started noticing that after the Butler assassination attempt. Confirmed for me after the Charlie Kirk assassination.
That seems true. Some of it is likely intentional sabotage when an excellent and informative blog, like this one, has become very well known and popular with lots of subscribers. Although I absolutely support free speech, I also think blog-owners have the right to clean out the worst offenders in comment sections to keep it on track and useful for its purpose.
Recently I came across one of Simp's articles from 2023, completely different comments section. Lots of links and Simp was pretty active as well.
Now, as you said, people push their opinions as facts.
It is truly amazing that the world's greatest authorities on geopolitics and warfare strategy and tactics all post here on Simp's blog, isn't it?
We are unbelievably lucky. Blessed even.
Yes. If you find 600 comments and 540 of them are off-topic or just ranting and harassing each other, then you feel tired and better read a long Emmanuel Todd or Aurelien piece. I think the World needs people like Simplicius and those named for the sake of truthseeking.
Events get into a rut; nothing novel happens in Ukraine anymore, no Bakhmut, no Ugledar, no pipeline urbex, no summer offensive. The audience gets bored. The blogger, trying to maintain interest and readership (which translates to earnings) can go two routes: 1. comment extensively on trivial events on the front, exaggerating their importance, or 2. provide opinion and analysis pieces instead of news. There is no third.
Simplicius went with 2, correctly in my opinion, as it has a better chance of retaining readership. But of course this is still disappointing---we all want action. The comments section inevitably gets radicalized, with people criticizing the slow pace, urging for escalation, and generally fielding all sorts of half-baked ideas.
It seems to me that things are generally moving in the right direction in both theaters, slowly and without fireworks. Thinking objectively, I actually prefer that to pointless fireworks, but I have to rationally override my boredom reflex. I still read with attention, but I comment less.
A very healthy look at things Ralf!
Much to agree there. But I think it is a third way and some of Simplicius pieces are a mix of 1 & 2 but sometimes also a third. Third way is to look further on, what inevitably must happen and of course it resembles more speculation than analysis.
Take Israel and their zests for new land and hatred for arabs. They will never stop until stopped. The Arab states got deceived by Israel in that by abandoning the Palestinians all would be fine. The results are even more wars.
Trump got ensnared into two illegal Wars with Iran thanks to Israel. He and his administrarion dont know what to do next, Saudis, Kuwait and UAE are not happy with their ”buddy” US who wrought destruction on them. I expect US to reconsider what is good for US whenever they can leve the mess behind them.
You say tomahto, I say tomayto. . .
What you call the third way is to me just a variant of 2. It is a deeper and more insightful analysis than the shallow, short-term, and often contrived pronouncements that media has habituated us to; but still not much qualitative difference, analysis is analysis.
A possible actual third way is what Brian Berletic (https://rumble.com/c/TheNewAtlas) and ESC (https://escapekey.substack.com/) are doing: looking under the carpet to expose the hidden hand at work behind events. But Simplicius, perhaps sensibly, does not delve much into conspiracy theories anymore;, his Dark Futura sister site has been silent for months.
Agree.
The problem with prediction is the level of complexity in the field of geopolitics coupled with the lack of really reliable data. The big picture is more easy to track because it has a fair degree of inertia and there is far more accurate data. On the tactical level, without a broad range of reliable inside Intel it's impossible to know day to day what could occur. For example, Trump may attack Iran tomorrow or may announce reaching an agreement with Iran. Both are equally plausible. On the strategic level we can see that the Iranians currently have an unassailable stranglehold of Hormuz and Trump has no clear solution.
Schrödinger’s Trump
Inertia is the key word. Once you identify where the (real) inertia is and where it is heading, you can predict pretty much. Same with lack of inertia and heading, it predicts failure and stalement.
We absolutely MUST stop pretending that Trump was helpless in the face of what Israel wants. Israel is a proxy state. The US is not some single entity. It is run by an Oligarchy which consists of criminal capitalists and has been dominated by the "Jewish Mob" since the neocons occupied the Pentagon under GHWB. They engineered the BCCI scandal to ensure their much more pliable stooge, Clinton, attained the Presidency.
There are other "criminal Capitalist" (is that an oxymoron? Or redundant?) who no longer trust the Jews. They supported the neocons (a synonym for "Jewish Mob") because they fell for the "bill of goods" that was suppose to increase the size of the pie for all. Now they are faced with losing their investment in China because the attacks on Russia and Iran have failed. They all believed their manipulation of the world economies would lead to US domination of the world and enhance their positions of power and prestige.
It is helpful to recall that Finkelstein says, "If you have the money to get to Israel and you don't go, you are NOT a Zionist." His definition is NOT up for debate because then you miss his (and my) point.
The Criminal Capitalists only care about satisfying their greed. People like Soros and Adelson donate to Israel because it makes them richer, not because they really care about being "good Jews". But their support does result in control of Congress through ADL/AIPAC which in turn, led to the dot.com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the theft of wealth during Covid.
The American Economy is engineered by these Criminals to steal wealth from Labor. If this isn't obvious to you, if you continue to believe naively that there are "market forces" at work, then explain away China's last recession was in 1979 and it has grown at 5%/year since then.
Yes there are -some- who will continue to support Israel, but they know it is a losing proposition now. The pro-Palestinian voices just will not shut up, and the world now hates -All- Jews. (In the past I would have tried to exclude some; like Mate, Finkelstein, Blumenthal from being "hated", but I don't think their "good works" off-set the overall disgust with Israel". They are in a tough position.
psychopaths tend to eventually self-destruct
There is a simple reason why I did not subscribe: If I want to. I am forced to load an "app" from the so called Google Play spyware and identity theft resource onto some smartphone, and, as it seems, it is doubtful that I can then comment from my PC as I am doing now. So it seems I am forced to possess and use either an Apple, or a Google Android Smartphone, which I do not accept to need to. Whether I used the buy a coffee opportunity is not for you to be entitled to know.
I dont use the app either - its spyware.
I use Brave. Apps suck.
I don't have to download an app to subscribe. I subscribed from my computer, it works fine.
In his interview today on Redacted, Col. Douglas MacGregor seems very confident that the US will begin new major combat operations against Iran within the next 48 hours. He did the same about a week ago or more, and he was incorrect then.
I think Macgregor will prove to be wrong again. I predict that the US will NOT start bombing Iran again until after Trump meets with Xi, which is supposed to happen on May 14-15 in Beijing. Trump will be able to use the threat of additional intense military aggression and extreme damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure and transport systems as negotiating leverage to gain concessions from China on other issues. We will see.
Trump will get exactly zero concessions from China.
In international diplomacy there are two things, words and actions.
Since China told the US to go and pound sand with their sanctions against Chinese refineries, we see that Trump can do as much to China as it can do to Iran - nothing!
The age of the USA unilateral power has ended at that moment.
Other countries are paying attention and shrug while continue buying Chinese Diesel and petrol goods because they have to, especially in Asia.
You might be right. But I'm not as optimistic as you are. I don't think either Iran or China "hold all of the cards", or that the US/Israel/Europe are now completely defeated and lack any ability whatsoever to use additional aggressive actions, either military or economic. I think they do. I don't think it's already over, not by a longshot. We will see.
Likewise, I don't buy the argument that Trump is "desperately seeking a way to end this war" that so many alt-media pundits keep repeating (not all, but most).
They never seek an end, they seek a pause or another perfide way to damage everyone that doesn't bow to their self proclaimed might. Just the might is getting smaller and smaller with every stupid set the empire does.
The 18th summit of BRICS this summer in India is about collaboration - the Empire is about confrontation - every sane human can see who really holds the cards in this.
Agree 100%, though the direction of travel has China ahead of the US and accelerating further ahead. The US are obviously desperate and making risky moves. They need to stem the fiscal haemmoraging but are locked into a system that is difficult if not impossible to control. We don't know where or when the crash will happen, but we do onow Empire is running full stream into a wall.
There are The Cards and then there are the very harsh lived realities of what the actual people of East Asia and the equatorial South are enduring and what the knock down effects are likely to be. From what i can tell from events so far in the Persian Gulf and nearby environs is that the USA & Friend(s?) can only obstruct and destroy at this point and these dynamics are getting more pronounced over time to the exclusion of all else. This leads to a bigger picture resetting (if you will) of global power structures….
MacGregor is a pompous blowhard , who has been predicting the end of the Ukraine war for well over 3 years. His head is well and truly up his American arse and that is his only perspective on anything.
You don't like him, then?
Like is relative , he is better than any member of the Kagan clan , Shuck Chumer and the old fag Israeli hag Graham et al.
Not a big fan of septic tanks period. They all need to shut up, get off the stage and let the Brics guys have a go. Would be hard to do worse than the United States of Zion has done.
😂
Helmer seemed to be suggesting that Xi would green light further attacks on Iran. But maybe I misheard Helmer? Hard to say.
He did. I don’t buy it.
He's an odd fish. I often think he's a top drawer analyst, then he comes up with weird curve balls that don't make sense. He constantly insists that Chinese weapons failed in the indo/pak conflict last year. Why? Is it true? Why keep bringing it up when the question wasn't even asked?
I haven't seen any reports suggesting the Chinese J10s and air to air missiles underperformed. The Indian response beefing up their AD suggests the opposite.
The only thing that remains clear is that pundits and armchair experts seem never to tire when it comes to making grand pronouncements about what China is thinking and what they are likely to do!
Helmer is a dumbass who specializes in saying things that are not true.
Pure nonsens. The whole point of the war and the actions before(like Venezuela) by the Usa was to constrain Chinas access to oil. So why exactly would China would agree to this.
You have an interesting “handle”. I’ve read “Youth: Crisis and Identity” twice and “Young Man Luther”. Related?
But as Helmer says, (if you read between the lines as he does) that China believes it has won WWIII. Trump has failed to constrain China's access to oil, and in any case, China is quickly moving away from oil. EVs are mandated for all government agencies and bureaucracies. China is deploying massive increases in (non-oil) energy supplies, including Thorium Reactors. China's GDP is larger than that of the US. The combined BRICS is larger than the G7.
Trump, and the neocons, have failed to reach their goal of constraining China. They may keep trying, China doesn't care.
If by constraining you mean: preventing China from doing business from the rest of the world, then the USA has a long way to go and it’s doubtful they have the means and endurance to get there. Sure they can sabotage the belt and road all they like but eventually such things get stabilized and locked down. But hey what do I know? We sure seem to be hitting multiple inflection points soon though….
I saw that show. He wasn't saying that it "would" happen but more like he would not be surprised if it did. His response was kind of convoluted.
The speculation over Trump's visit next week, 14 May, is all over the place. with some saying it won't happen.
For those that care, it was this youTube on Dialogue Works. The important part starts about 17 minutes, when Helmer talks about Modi going to Israel. Trump "wants" to do the same thing and have China stand with Israel. Trump will resume attacks -as-if- China approved. He did not say China would actually approve.
Wang said that that there's a "deal to be made" (Helmer called it possible). China will withdraw from Hormuz Strait if the US withdraws from Taiwan Strait. This will provide Trump with cover to resume the war.
-I- think this gives Trump a face-saving way to suggest he's won something so he can declare victory and go home. Mostly, I just hope.
Helmer emphasizes that the US rearming of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines complicates things even further.
He is expressing extremely skeptical possibilities. But all stuff "on the edge".
Nema responds with a "more reasonable" perspective. Helmer doesn't disagree. That wasn't the point.
Helmer thinks China does want to become the world's hegemon and they will do what they think is best. If that means abandonment of Iran and Russia, there's no problem. Helmer's continuing perspective is that Russia, China and Iran do support one another, but that they each would rather "go it alone" against the US. And TBF, support for one another doesn't come close to the mass hysteria generated in Europe against Ukraine.
It is "interesting" that in the US there's no "mass hysteria" supporting Iran's war, and it isn't at all universal when it comes to Ukraine, but in the end Americans are all greatly depressed and giving up on life. The "Epstein Class" has
"You've thrown the worst fear that can ever be hurled
"Fear to bring children into the world"
-- Bob Dylan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLQeC8gOp-k
You are right. Xi is a part of capitalist club.
The miltary operation was halted because of extensive damage to Israel and to US bases, that has been meticulously concealed by the censored media. And alt-media didn't dare contradict the official casualty reports, even though they were obviously expurgated.
But it is beginning to filter through that not only the munitions have been catastrophically depleted, but US bases in the Gulf have been practically obliterated, with extensive casualties. And Israel has all but been reduced to a failed state, like Libya.
The war with Iran has been spectacularly lost, and that is the real reason the US offensive has been halted, not by Trump, but by his handlers. Trump is just a blowhard figurehead, in the final reckoning his decisions don't matter shit. The Empire is ruled from behind the curtain, like Brian Berletic keeps telling us. And it is not in the Empire's interest to advance Israel's and the US's defeat to the stage where it becomes obvious to everyone.
I don't think that's what Berletic said about the "Empire's interest". On your other points, I agree. But the oligarchy may just double down anyway. They have "The Golden Billion" as a "Final Plan", and that cannot be ignored.
For them, it’s Victory or Death (usually someone else’s) so they most definitely will double down if they can…..Although it likely will not actually BE a double, but more of a sideways jackknifing followed by a multilateral fracturing….!!
Money is the only thing in the Empire of Corporations' interest. They could not care less about public perception in 2026. If enough money is invested in the energy projects dependent on destroyed GCC infrastructure, the Empire of Corporations will *absolutely* destroy the entire region. They could not care less about world perception, like, hello, we've had a 3 year livestreamed Holocaust and the Empire of Corporations doesn’t gaf about that. Besides, you live in a police state. There's not a damn thing the common people can do without uniting, which the Empire has done an absolutely spectacular job of preventing. So, yeah. It's that bad.
Sounds plausible though maybe presented that way to lower the Iranian guard.
That, and some additional possible reasons to delay attacks:
- allows more time for US/Isreal to re-arm depleted weapons.
- allows time for more naval assets to arrive in the region.
- more time "not shooting" makes it more plausible for Trump admin to claim no need for Congressional approval to start again; use a different "operation" name.
Macgregor just wants to monetanize
It seems to me that predictions is a bit of a fools errand. Sure it may be likely, but then after crying wolf ten times what then is the point. May as well talk about probability and simply assess the known factors and well as the blank spaces. Most likely is that the RotW gets completely fed up with being held hostage by the USA and it’s reckless behavior, backs away less lowly, arms more quickly and is virtually guaranteed to divest from the dollar system. Just how and at what rate remains to be seen, but if I were a gamblin’ man…..
I replied to an old post, where someone had kept asking about Iran's oil storage and the effect on the oil wells. This is a very recent video discussion and Krapivnik has more recent experience in the oil fields:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnNOL1sGhLs
Long story short, it's a totally made up concern (as I kept trying to explain to the other poster but he didn't get it for a while). . Oil wells don't work like what MSM was saying... and it also depends on the type of oil wells. And then the backstop is that Iran has already opened up multiple routes for its oil to keep flowing.. through the Caspian sea and utilizing Russian pipelines after that, land routes through Pakistan and some others etc. That's why the pictures of the Kharg island oil tanks being quite empty should not be a surprise. Iran is making bank by selling as much oil as it can.
Who hasn't been selling any oil? UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. How come we didn't hear a peep of concern about their oil wells having to be shut? People pls... the western MSM is just lies piled upon lies now, often not able to keep even their stories straight.
As for the quid pro quo about Iran letting some tankers through.. Simplicius, that is total BS.
Please understand human nature... Iran does hold all the cards... they got bombed.. they've been sanctioned like heck, lost a lot of important figures, so they ain't playing the appeasement game anymore. Why in the world would they even put up with that pretense? It's just more western MSM made-up BS being fed as 'insider info'.
Your comment on the Caspian Sea routes and Russian pipelines is an absolute dream or should I sat a fairy tale. How much oil do you expect to pass along this route? The Iranians do not have pipelines to deliver the oil and must reply on road tankers - i.e., a minimal supply. The Caspian routes and terminals are for incoming oil supplies for Iranian refineries. and not outgoing. Your statement is a pipe dream.
Your geopolitical knowledge sucks.
Empty fuel storage tanks on Kharg, bud. It's western photos that were released. China's oil reserves have only dropped by.... *drumroll*... 1 mil barrels since the war started. I guess the Iranians are magically teleporting the oil direct to China.
Your geopolitical knowledge .... shows itself.
Please remember my fellow Americans, actually ALL of "the west" are the most propagandized populations in the entire world. And the worst part is they are all convinced that if they read 1 article they are also "experts" on everything.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
I have climbed Mt Dunning-Kruger and i can see everything from here!! Nothing can stop me now!!!
Kharg island is running hot. The Iranians monthly seaborne crude sales have ramped up this year, from around 1.4 to 2 Mbps. I'm assuming most goes to China.
Doesn't China have a rail line to that route?
A lot of the US bombing effort has been directed at this rail line and its bridges. It's hard to say to what extent this has been repaired; it is generally quite easy to fix bombing damage to rail lines, which is why bombing them is only marginally practical. Bridges and depots are more vulnerable.
A couple of the bridges on that line were hit. Once the bombing stopped there was quite a big media blitz saying all were repaired in a few days.
"Your geopolitical knowledge sucks."
As does your knowledge of engineering. Any infrastructure that caters for incoming supplies can equally cater for outgoing ones. Same pipelines, same storage facilities, same tankers.
Yes and no. The shore infrastructure is probably adequate, if undersized. But I seriously doubt there are enough large tankers in the Caspian, and building them is a problem, as only riverine (Volga) and Black Sea shipyards are available; but the Black Sea is in a war zone, and the connecting canal is not sized for tankers. So that is the bottleneck, not shore facilities.
Azerbaijan has robust oil facilities, and possibly tankers; but Azerbaijan is essentially a hostile state to both Iran and Russia, despite ostensible neutrality.
That is a limitation on how much oil can be transported, not a prevention form an transport at all, which was the idea I was challenging.
I don't have much to say about Iranian oil to China in terms of the original comment, but as someone who works in petro chemicals, this is absolutely not true. Many refineries and storage terminals are 'one way' and literally don't have the infrastructure in place to do what your suggesting.
Equally, the idea that road and rail tankers could move a comparable amount of supply to pipelines and ships is ludicrous - road/rail barrels top out at about 30,000 litres per tank (less than that for heavy crude) - pipelines and VLOC vessels can move millions of litres in relatively short amounts of time. The cost and man power involved in moving that by road and rail would be absolutely unfeasible.
I can see that facilities designed only for offloading tankers might not be able to be used to fill them, but adaptations could sort that out and it would be a lot simpler than building such facilities from scratch.
If we look at prewar Iranian oil exports, they sum up to 2.5 million barrel per day, equalling 337,837 tons.That is one supertanker or 2-3 normal tanker ships per day given all oil was exported by sea transport.
Now, what would be the alternatives? Open Railway map (www.openrailwaymap.org) may give some clues.
There are actually four rail lines leading through central Asia and Russia. The shortest goes from northwest Iran over Bu#khara, Tashkent, Bishek, Almati, crossing the Chinese border at Sharkent to Ürümqi, opening routes to south and southwestern Xinjiang. even Tibet.
The next one, starting at Aqtau (reached either by ship on the Caspian or by railway from Teheran agglomeration) crosses all central Kasakhstan leading over Karaganda to the Dostyk border crossing into China towards Ürümqi.
The Russian routes are ways longer, requiring shipo transport to the Volga at Astrakhan, or to Chechnya before being loaded to trains. There are a couple of routes to Siberia, one going to Ulan Ude and then Mongolia to the Hubei-Beijing-Tianjin agglomeration, others further east over Inner Mongolia to Shandong etc., lately to North China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning).
As to capacity, A railcar tanker loads 72-75tons of oil, and 200+ tanker railcars per day and route are not unrealistic. That spells 60+k tons or 420-440k barrels per day in all directions. So far rail.
Ok, there is truck traffic as well. As trucks can drive all roads in the -stans, one can assume up to 1500 truckloads daily, mainly tanker semis at 40-45tons per unit, to be transported in all directions. They will most probably not run to Harbin :) but mind that the evolving -stans need fuel and run refineries as well. That would make other 60+k tons per day.
Lately, there is inland shipping. Tankers going the Caspian and the Deep Water Transport network in Russia may reach the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, even the Arctic harbours (White Sea canal), and the Moscow area. Typical inland tanker ships load 5k or 10k tons. It would not take many to take most of the rest of Iranian oil production.
And yes, cost is higher, but the rising oil price makes up for a lot. Moreover, supertankers cannot sail to Almati, Tibet, or Ulan Bator. It always needs rail, road, and at best pipeline transport to bring the fuel to the end destinations.
So while a total sea blockade would certainly hit Iran, alternatives do exist.
Good compilation of the alternative routes for oil transport.
I suspect, however, that Iran does not have a lot of idle rail, truck, or Caspian Sea tanker equipment on hand ready to fire up as needed to make up for the loss of marine transport capacity in the Persian Gulf.
In other words, what they have is already likely being used at high capacities.
The China-Iran Railway (in operation since May 2025), for example, is already operating at near max capacity, but has begun efforts to expand capacity by 50% or so. But even with that planned expansion, it can only transport around 10 percent of the pre-war capacity of the ocean-going tankers.
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Could you just stop with the snarking please, there is no need for it at all and it brings in a childish schoolyard tone to the comments section. If you can't bring yourself to say something politely then don't say anything.
A little oil industry history via AI:
AI Overview
Yes, it is true that during the early days of the Pennsylvania oil rush (beginning in 1859), producers were often hesitant to shut down operating pumps for fear that the wells would become impossible to restart or would damage the formation.
Early operators feared that removing the pump or stopping the flow would allow the well to fill with water or sediment, permanently ruining production.
Key Historical Context:
Fear of Shutdowns: Early in the industry, there was a widespread belief that stopping the pumping machinery would mean losing the well entirely, as they were unsure how to restart production effectively once stopped.
Initial Challenges: Operators were inexperienced in dealing with the geological formations of Northwestern Pennsylvania, which often required constant, rather than intermittent, pumping to keep the wellbore clear of sand and water.
Technological Shift: Over time, improvements in pumping technology—including the introduction of specialized pumps, better well casings, and better understanding of the reservoirs—showed that wells could, in fact, be stopped and restarted without permanent damage.
Economic Factors: The fear wasn't just physical, but also economic. The early oil industry in PA was characterized by severe boom-bust cycles where prices could drop from $$$10 to 10 cents a barrel in a year. While operators initially tried to keep pumping to maximize early profits, they later developed techniques to "shut in" (shut down) wells during price crashes or oversupply.
By the early 1900s, as shown by surviving equipment, technology had advanced to allow for better maintenance and operation of oilfield equipment, making the "no-stop" fear a relic of the pioneer days
Thanks David. That makes sense.
Ukraine's futile hopes to reduce Russian oil production: Has Kyiv fallen for a Russian myth?
May 7, 2026
, 4:31 PM
Oil production. Photo: Rosneft / Telegram
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively attacking Russian ports and refineries to disrupt Russian oil exports. A decline in exports could lead to a reduction in production. However, claims that production will not recover are a myth, says Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center.
"So, returning to the story, if Ukrainian attacks on Russian export capacity are massive, prolonged, persistent, and successful in forcing Russia to cut production and exports, Russia will have to cut production, and it won't be possible to restore production to Russia," Sergei Vakulenko said in a video podcast . "There's a very short answer."
On the one hand, Russian specialists are quickly repairing equipment and accelerating exports. On the other hand, Sergey Vakulenko advised everyone to recall the situation six years ago, when the novel coronavirus pandemic broke out.
"And during this very same Covid-19, OPEC+ countries cut production by more than 10 million barrels per day. Many of them reduced production by about a quarter. And, as we now know, production in these countries has quietly returned to its previous levels. And, in particular, we see that Russian production has also returned to its previous levels."
— said the expert.
According to him, in most cases, shutting down production at fields is beneficial to the fields themselves and can even improve subsequent production. The problem may lie with the well or equipment.
"This was a source of concern, including among Russian oil producers. And the issue was resolved in the following way. In many wells, production wasn't completely shut down; pump speeds were simply reduced. This was done precisely to maintain some flow, rather than having to restart the pump after a shutdown. So, there are methods."
— explained the senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center.
In his opinion, the stereotype that shutting down or reducing production will cause major problems is inconsistent with both practice and theory. This includes oil pipelines, which are shut down even in winter during preventive maintenance at oil fields, noted Sergey Vakulenko.
He believes he knows where this myth comes from.
"When Russia hadn't yet joined OPEC Plus, and when, for example, in 2008, its Arab partners would occasionally call out to it, 'Listen, you're in this boat too,' Russia had a standard excuse: 'You're fine out there in the desert, but we're here in the permafrost.'"
Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2026/05/07/ukraina-zrya-nadeetsya-uronit-dobychu-nefti-v-rossii-kiev-popalsya-na-rossiyskiy-mif
Thanks for that detailed response. Again Simp. keeps claiming some special neutral observer status that is complete BS.
Simp. quote "Some unverified reports had claimed Iran let a couple tankers pass to give the US Navy escort credit, and in return the US turned a blind eye to some Iranian tankers slipping through its “impenetrable” blockade as well. " I am guessing that Simplicious is the "unverified reporter" Imagine talking about OTHERS shilling for the Jewish media at the same time you are doing the exact same thing. IN fact, people can go back and check the first article after Israel/US attacked Iran. It was pure US propaganda, only after the world was forced to acknowledge the US failures did Simp. limp out an article that somehow Iran did not get blown back to the stone age.
Why do you keep reading Simplicius' articles, then? Are you an agent or a shill yourself?
I've been reading his content for a couple of years now and cannot detect any signs that he is shilling or being an agent. On the contrary, just like us, Simplicius is trying to figure out what's going on. He certainly has some bias toward particular sides of the conflicts, but he still tries to provide a holistic picture of the world stage. You cannot be completely neutral in today's world unless you're a sociopath or a super-enlightened being.
And yes, weaving in rumors makes the truth more apparent. Many so-called 'conspiracy theories' have proven true throughout the 2020s. So, why wouldn't it be plausible to assume that Iran and the US have made a deal to bolster domestic propaganda?
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My take was "Why doesn't this affect the GCC more, since they are the ones who can't export, whose storage and refineries and other energy infrastructure are destroyed"
In the meantime, Iran has downed a MQ-9A surveillance drone, set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to manage the Strait of Hormuz and sent his Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to China for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, ahead of Donald Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping - guess who is taking the spotlight!
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/trump-halts-project-freedom-while
On returning from China his first call was with the SA foreign minister. Today the Saudis announced Prince Sultan AB no longer available for the US.
Somewhat related: RF force waltzed into a NATO ISR nest in Donbas….intact….. News @ 5//////NOT
"Well, this is why the most enterprising and intelligent folk read independent outlets like this one here, rather than zioshill-owned corporate lackey chambers like the Atlantic—because virtually everything being “discovered” by them just now was long known to us and expounded on here before the conflict even began."
Oh please, you might throw your shoulder out of alignment.
There is a saying: It ain't bragging if you can do it. Simplicius does a good job of informing us of real world events, while the corporate press pushes narratives that have little relationship to reality. I think he's entitled to crow a bit about it.
Simplicius presents and delivers articles at to his own politics and not reality. Amazing how one man is an expert on Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, the Middle East and China.
He was and is correct on Russia but he is way off base on the Iran situation and offers no clear factual proof of his dedcutions.
...and offers no clear factual proof of his deductions.
Did you not read the article or are you cognitive handicapped? He did exactly what you claimed he did not - unbelievable!
Fuck me, another one....
😂😂😂
This comment represents a travel guide for Bishkek, advising you on things to do. Included here are essential tips, tourist attractions and important facilities.
Cliff, keep away from the edge of the cliff.
Remind me when Simplicius did an article on China?
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Can Simplicius be wrong? Sure. But he is not a corporate shill, and I have found him to be informative and right more often than not.
Believe me, I'm a fan and he's not a corporate shill by any means. That being said, I don't see a need for I told you so's at this juncture.
Switch hands?
Yes, Jesse Watters is a propaganda clown.
I think the US has no options other than to let Iranian tankers go through. Most are going to China. Who has quite a bit of leverage. They also have deep pockets. If Trump completely stops the flow of Iranian oil, China will just out bid US allies. Making the political situation even worse for US. Not to mention they market Trump is really trying to keep propped up is the bond market. He can lose oil and stocks, but not the bond market. Which he must protect not only from China, but also Europe. Which is why he can't completely abandon Ukraine. Sucks to be him
"China will just out bid US allies. Making the political situation even worse for US."
The US does not have allies, and making its vassals pay more is perfectly in line with US goals, which are always to increase dependence and obedience.
But at some point do they not grow weary of the flogging?
——-asking for a friend
30y bonds at 5%, no wonder Bessant is being such an arsehole.
Should the need arise, Iran has plenty of caves that can be used to store oil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_caves_in_Iran
This is a controlled demolition of Middle Eastern energy production capabilities by the US petrodollar oligarchy, disguised as plausible deniability. It’s obvious.
And meanwhile supposedly intelligent people are cheering that “Iran has already won” while the Gringo Empire demolishes the World Economy for its profit.
Most folks are missing the big picture. By a lot.
...“Iran has already won” while the Gringo Empire demolishes the World Economy for its profit.
Let them eat their profit when the angry daddy's who can't feed their children coming for them. The french revolution taught us one thing: if you advise people to eat cake if they can't afford bread - you're to lose your head with great probability.
By the way, Iran has already won indeed plus all the people who stand with Iran, Palestine and Lebanon, Cuba, Venezuela etc.
I think many who appear to celebrate Iran is because it’s the only path available for reining in the neocon beast and not, as one might suspect, approving of Iranian actions.
Controlled demolition of the U$D as world reserve currency. After the Nixon gold default of 1971, I am amazed that it has taken this long. The US keeps making financial and geopolitical decisions that should lead to a rapid transition away from holding anything denominated in U$D.
But no other country or group wants to step up and assume the role.
Oil price inflation affects just about everything that people consume. Including the devaluation of the purchasing power of US Treasuries. Which can keep the US debt Ponzi rolling for a while longer.
It is puzzling that there is not a new "Bretton Woods" with the best and brightest trying to hammer out the new post-U$D system. Or perhaps it is being done in secret.
Agreed as to the fact and that it is obvious. Also a nod to Concerned C about how most folks are missing the big picture. Talking about the people here in this group and the alt press more generally.
This is conspiracy theory , rah rah USA bullshit, the place is a collapsing small town circus with the clowns in charge.
History is littered with conspiracies.
But for you it's all "theory".
For the record, the term "conspiracy theory" was coined by the CIA in a 1967 memo discussing criticism of the Warren Commission.
Good to have a hobby and conspiracy theories are cheap, abundant , never die and if you can point at one, it obviously proves they are everywhere. No thinking required.
I dabbled in Coincidence Theory once….
Not in ‘Nam of course….
Dust it off and use it indefinitely….
Agree completely, just with a minor correction: CIA weaponized the use of the term "conspiracy theories" with help from compliant media, but the term itself did exist prior to its weaponization.
No such thing as Coincidence according to Conspiracy theory, everything is connected you know to the Rosthchilds, Jesuits and Masons and that weird guy that lives 2 doors down.
"Well, this is why the most enterprising and intelligent folk read independent outlets like this one here, rather than zioshill-owned corporate lackey chambers like the Atlantic—because virtually everything being “discovered” by them just now was long known to us and expounded on here before the conflict even began."
Well said. We're lucky to have you, S. Keep up the good work.
I can understand Simplicius giving himself a pat on the back, as the past couple weeks of ceasefire has seen a number of trolls coming on here and berating him for giving his take on Iran, as it was 'obviously not his area of expertise'. While I don't always agree with Simplicius' take, I still believed he was 70-80% accurate, vs the total nonsense from the western press. Where he misses, IMHO, is a desire to seem fair and balanced and still give credit to the American machinations and that they might have. In reality, I have studied, lived and worked with the american elites, and I can tell you that I got the heck out of there as quickly as possible I didn't want to lose my soul in such a cesspit of imbecility, incompetence, and incoherence. What you guys see on TV when a puppet like Hegseth mouths off talking points which now contradict each other in the next min, is that kind of BS-spouting I had to deal with, and realized, these guys are really high on whatever they're smoking and there's no coming back from there.
100%
It seems a bit like layers of inbreeding in that the propaganda was almost TOO good and they got waaaay too high on their own supply. Add to the industrial outsourcing, intentional dumbing down and the hollowing out of well….pretty much everything.
The fact that all the markets are soaring does indicate some confidence in the US position, though there are reasons for caution. The alt press's unrelenting gloating is, yet again, absurd. There will be a lot more people killed before the Iranian war is ended, and Europe has yet to begin to bleed. It will.
...and Europe has yet to begin to bleed. It will.
It does already bleed. Yesterday traffic chaos in a German border town at a tank station, fuel being 1,97€, coming from 1,65€ just two month ago. Dutch cars lined up like crazy since fuel in the Netherlands is now 2,40€ and above.
More than 10 000 flights are cancelled in Germany the last two weeks and rising due to lack of jet fuel. No to talk about how they think to fill the natural gas reserves over the summer for the next winter.
As Garland Nixon yesterday said correctly: If you can, get the F out of Europe now.
The US will get hit as well - maybe not that severe but for the 55% that live paycheck to paycheck, it will be devastating.
I follow this channel for updates on Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RurNTuJpu50
Thanks for the post Chris, I have been out of touch with Lilly for a few months. Indeed, great hearing her "from the street reporting." I grew up around a fair number of Germans (2nd-3rd generation)and they (at least my mates) were the smartest, hardest working, most disciplined people I know. And, charitable. Two of them, coming from working class backgrounds, have become very wealthy (liability law and manufacturing). I'm in the upper Midwest. I guess these guys represent "old Germany". The Germans in Europe have obviously lost a bit of the old character.
Frank S. is correct, get the "F" out of there.
I started watching her about 10 years ago - when I was also making a few bushcraft videos on YouTube. I lived in Germany from 1985-1991 and loved my time there. I met a lot great folks there and in other countries I visited. Currently back home on Prince Edward Island.
Cheers
Thanks Chris. I was in Germany (Hamburg) for the first time in 1970 as a 19 y/o college student. What I remember the most was encountering young Germans who spoke impeccable English, without a trace of an accent. All my people came to the USA in the 1880s..from Norway*. It really saddens me to reflect on the very sad trajectory Europe is on. At 74 y/o I'm near my "sell by date" but I have four granddaughters all under the age of nine. Worry!
*A Norwegian, Ole Rolvaag, wrote about the American immigration experience in a masterful book called Giants In The Earth. A tale of suffering and hardship. There's another Norwegian, V. Quisling, who personifies the contemporary "leadership" class in Europe now. I hope we are not as fncked as I think we are. Is it too late to take up bird watching? I'm about tapped out...reading about humans and the non-stop cruelty and idiocy.
You're talking money, and that's legit, but I mean blood. Europe will bleed red blood. Maybe even a little blue blood may spill eventually.
Elena, here in Europe we are 100% globohomo. Our blood is rainbow-colored
not very practical for industrial production, but Dutch bycicles, with extended cycle lanes everywhere, are the way to go.
People don't seem to understand this ..... including the Europeans who think that they still have a chance to get Russian oil and gas if the Ukraine conflict ends now. They don't... zero, zilch, nada... NYET. China and Russia signed 50 year agreement to have the oil and gas redirected to China and the pipelines are already more than half-built Russia tried to be coy for too long and kept supplying EUrope, and what did they get for that? 100K dead russian soldiers and some civilians. They have long memories... they will never ever want to supply Europe with energy again.
Why is that so critical? People forget.. 1 barrel of oil = 100 years of man labor with machinery use. Oil is embedded energy that makes everything else in the modern economy possible..... not just making stuff, but making modern farming possible, the transport of goods... the internet/wifi that people now treat as a ubiquitous good. no energy, everything goes dark. I've already told my kids - I have a van which runs on diesel... loaded up, it's 3000kg. 1L of diesel allows that van to climb a 100m high hill in a few min, say along 3-4km of road. How many man would it take to push that same 3000kg van to the top of the hill and how long will they take to do it? Oil is freakin powerful.... it makes modern civilization possible....
Once you understand that... you also understand that western AI a it now stands, being a huge energy hog without creating much real value in return, is a dead-end venture. Sure, the state authorities keep directing fresh 'investment' into AI to keep the bubble from popping... but that doesn't change the end point. Within a year, most of the AI centers in the US will NOT be running as the energy will be needed by the remaining people just to survive.
Thanks SG- a great, accurate summary of where we are and what lies ahead. The one thing people don't "get" about the green energy thingy is that there's no
energy density there like with petro-derivatives. I go to a very popular coffee shop close to my suburban house and in a conversation with the mgr there, he reports that his biz is off 15-20%. He said 20 oz plastic cups (1000 ct) went from $80-/1000 to $160.00/1000 ct). Gas here is $4.45/ gallon-regular. I expect restaurants and coffee shops to have rough sledding as a full gas tank will take precedence over a restaurant meal or $4- coffee. Thanks Don you bloated, ignorant pos. My oldest son lives in SOCAL-good luck, dude. Expecting Nuclear energy to come back fast and hard. Fingers crossed.
The knockdown effects are not escapable. The upside being that everyone in the USA minus the extremists is saying a very big WTF in regard to the politicians and parasite class….
“Yes I understand the idea that when The Blue Team gets back in power everything will be peachy……”
“Ok, good for you….but I’m not Gang Affiliated”
“Yeah no, it’s a Duopoly bro”
——Feel free to add to the list
"Russia tried to be coy for too long and kept supplying EUrope, and what did they get for that? 100K dead russian soldiers and some civilians. They have long memories... they will never ever want to supply Europe with energy again..."
Don't take this the wrong way, because I think Europe does have a problem here, but this particular part does not make sense. You surely don't think anybody was fooled about how that oil Russia was supplying was being used, do you? And yet it was being supplied and people in the comments on this very site are constantly talking about how great it has been for the Russian economy. The billionaires were supplying it, and Putin was approving it. They'd sell their oil where it makes the most money even if they knew it would be converted to some super-lethal gas that would be shipped to Europe the next week for use on Russians.
The problem is not the Russian memory, which will have nothing to do with it, but Asian wealth, which will have everything to do with it.
I'm glad you put a timeline on your assertion that AI centers will not be running. I would take the other side of that bet, secure in the knowledge that the people controlling the flow of energy would rather the masses starve than loosen their grip on that control.
When the AI energy wall really hits the USA, think: barrel bombs lobbed in unison at these leviathans. Oh and those massive data centers? Yeah no, that aint for running LLMs….
Excuse me.... at the height of the dotcom boom, I already knew the crash was baked in. Same for the GFC..... if you can't spot obvious fakery , then you can't really see anything. Anyways, anyone still paying attention to the US stock markets as 'info' is seriously deluded.
It is info, though. That's exactly what it is, along with being a great way to transfer wealth from the people to the wealthy.
Really? Then why are the UAE oligarchs panicking like nobody's business and begging the Fed for a swap line? You really don't know the 'rich' western people... except for a handful who actually cash out and keep real store of value, most of their wealth is only paper wealth, and often tied up in leverage and linked to other stuff. Most private equity is now locked up with no redemption possible - that is a sure sign that the valuations given are fake and not redeemable...
The current situation is such that a 'rich' doctor and lawyer in the US, over fancy dinners, get encouraged by their wealth advisors to park a huge chunk of their net assets with such private equity... and now they are actually cash poor. if their business starts to see a decline (less people able to afford overpriced medical service or legal advice), then they're actually starting to struggle to pay their bills... as they can't liquidate any of their so-called assets.
That's where we are now... I saw the same situation happening before the dotcom bust and GFC and made plans accordingly. So it's not just empty words talking, but active prep to take advantage of desperate folks trying to get rid of stuff...
You’re sure drawing a lot of conclusions from something that you say contains no information.
Private equity isn't the stock market....
Eventually lived reality kicks in on a mass scale….(camera pans to the Sri Lankan president’s palace on “revolution day”)
It is info, though.
It's info about corruption, insider trading and theft of imaginable wealth.
There are no 'markets' there are people who trade funny papers and claim that they are worth something. Those people are usually 10% of the population in western countries.
The rest is strangled, without any saying about it, by insurance companies and pension-fonds.
There is nothing real about stock markets since a financial economy is no real economy - it's a ponzi scheme.
So you’re admitting it’s information. That was entirely my point.
Done yet?
Are you trying to say something of any substance? Or just trying to make clever sound bites? If it's that most people are not clutching pearls, who gives a damn what "most people" are clutching? Certainly not the neocons. And most people *will* clutch, or rather gag, when the stock market crashes, since that will be used to create another massive transfer of wealth to the rich.
This is really the nub of the matter….most people are not clutching the pearls over Muh’Stonks!!
^^^THIS^^^^ unbiased pattern recognition is your friend
Most of the world population is putting their bets to the USA.
The world loves slavery, humanity is unable to be free.
The slave owners do, anyway, and the system is rigged so only their voices count.
Of related interest. From Moon of Alabama.......
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/05/war-on-iran-trump-discards-project-freedom-another-oil-market-peace-scam-loss-in-trust-of-u-s-protection.html
Gen. Butler warned us war is a racket but I'm willing to bet even he couldn't have predicted how blatant this fuckery has become.
And General Butler is long dead and as such his comments have no bearing on current geopolitical issues as he is and was out of date. War is a racket but it is currently being controlled.
"War is a racket but it is currently being controlled." In other words, it's a racket. Circular reasoning, bro!
CircularReasoning: its what got me to where I am today….but then again it’s always been Groundhog Day……
Right?
——-RIGHT??!!