106 Comments
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3h
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NiggleS's avatar

That's what he wrote, near the end.

Comprehension of writing, it's a thing...

Charlie M's avatar

Fair enough.. I didn't read it. Just the opening lines made me worry I'd sever my optic nerve with the mother of all eye rolls. I deleted the comment.

The Spectre's avatar

From what I read, anything can change at Trump's will. As of tonight.

Tankers won't be moving for another 2-4 weeks, until they are sure everything is kosher. Too big risk.

Or Natanyahu Gazzing Beirut again and Iran very strong retaliation.

Or Israeli black flag nuclear contamination of it's own installations and asking the US Congress and UN for a war against Iran. That would be after the Football Cup ends, so around 24.07.

Or Israel black flag bombing of American nuclear Incirlik Air Base in Turkey in August. That would be the first step of aggression on Turkey, even as initially the US will send more troops there. And European NATO heavy armed contingents send to Turkey as Article 4 would be invoked.

Turkey will be forced to allow all this, even fully realising those are occupational forces in interest of Israel. But as this year end, they would have no other choice as to leave NATO alliance and go under Russian nuclear umbrella.

Angelina's avatar

"Trump's will?" Is there such a thing nowadays? It's more like Trump's willy-nilly

The Spectre's avatar

Trump would not start any military operations during the World Cup at his will. He needs all attention to USA. He asked Natanyahu not to attack during the Cup but Israel is making Beirut and Lebanon the second Gaza genocide.

In turn Iran will massively attack Israel, with Israel nuclear retaliation done through false flag operation. That retaliation will not be immediate - the Cup is ending on 19th July, so the following 24-25th July Sabat is likely the date.

They will blame Iran to get Congress approval for formal war.

Trump will want it done fast, just in 3 days. Every day more deadly then the previous.

NiggleS's avatar

Second is a podium finish, as is third.

English, it's a language.

grr's avatar

It's also a breed of bulldog. And a breakfast sausage.

Ar-Pharazon's avatar

It's nothing. We'll see the actual validity of the ceasefire after the Israelis ramp up their combat operations in defiance of it. That will be the true test of "tail wags dog" or vice versa.

Mikey Johnson's avatar

Exactly. It doesnt matter that ”Trump was finally forced to blink when he realized that Iran wasn’t going to lose this game”. Its an existencial battle for Iran against Israel.

Victor's avatar

"That will be the true test of "tail wags dog" or vice versa."

That test has already been exercised many times in the past. Bibi always wins.

GM's avatar
3hEdited

Ther reality is a bit different.

1) None of the positive for Iran things in the MoU are firm guarantees with precises conditions and deadlines. And nobody has any intention to do those things anyway, they will remain empty promises

2) The US has not been physically removed from near Iran. Which was a mandatory outcome for Iran out of this war. But the bases are still there. They had to be pushed back at least 1500 km so that they cannot launch mass swarms of kamikaze drones the way they are doing to Russia now.

3) Zero deterrence has been imposed. Iran's leadership has been killed, Trump is alive, Hegseth is alive, Netanyahu is alive, etc. It was absolutely mandatory to take out Trump and Netanyahu at the very least to reimpose some deterrence. And to go after soft targets such as the Jewish billionaires in their mansions and yachts. Lots of ways to do that. But it wasn't done.

4) They didn't sink any US ships and thus neither the massacres of civilians such as Minab, nor the cowardly sinking of the Iranian ship near India, have been avenged.

5) Hit-and-run has in fact been normalized. Sure, Iran "responds", but not in a way that reenforces deterrence

6) The US is getting six months to retool and will resume the war after the midterms. Meanwhile it is already perfecting TEL hunting techniques in Russia through Starlink and kamikaze drones, i.e. next time it will not be relying on expensive MALE drones to do it and will suppress Iranian launches much more effectively.

Alyosha's avatar

MoU is just a starting point for negotiations.

"A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), also referred to as a Letter of Intent (LOI) or Letter of Agreement (LOA), is a formal yet non-binding agreement between two or more parties. It outlines present intentions, roles, and objectives, serving as a mutual acknowledgment of potential outcomes and processes."

Advanced Stupid's avatar

Iran might have the most "fell for it again" awards in history.

Gisela's avatar

No, that 'honor' goes to Putin.

Seeker's avatar

Your mythical view of US capabilities underestimates two major factors geography and distance. They will lose the ability to launch strikes against Iran from their now former gulf bases. The biggest disadvantages of aircraft are airfields and range the US lost both advantages. Iran did not need to totally humiliate the US by becoming drawn into a devastating unnecessary conflict, which everything you stated that would satisfy your video game/Hollywood perspective of the world would accomplish.

The Iranians only needed to expose the fragility of the US paper economy; deligimise and discredit the US information infrastructure that promoted them as good, moral, ethical and trustworthy; Damage or destroy US bases in the region while taking control of the Straits of Hormuz so the US can never repair, resupply or rebuild efficiently or effectively; While at the same time destroy the myth of US military supremacy built over many years by Hollywood and the video game industry. All while avoiding a devastating war, that in my opinion is a greater achievement.

GM's avatar

>They will lose the ability to launch strikes against Iran from their now former gulf bases.

But that's the thing -- they are not former bases. And will not be.

Did you look at the images released?

These are gigantic objects, Iran hit some buildings, but the only way to destroy the whole thing is firing hundreds of Shaheds at a time, which they never did, or nuking them, which they also neve did

So the bases are mostly still intact and active.

Xcalibur's avatar

I admire your persistence, lol.

Schlurpo Sneem's avatar

"The US is getting six months to retool and will resume the war after the midterms"

Retool with what? This country can't even build a fucking road bridge without "outsourcing" the entire material side of the project to China.

GM's avatar

>Retool with what?

With the same new Starlink and AI guided drones that have been taking out Russian Iskander and Bastion TELs in Crimea, Kursk, Bryansk, Rostov, Krasnodar, etc.

Alyosha's avatar

Somehow they cannot target anything around Slavyansk.

Pierre's avatar
1hEdited

Lol, Russia has been rendered totally impotent, as demonstrated by the recent developments in...uh....yeah no nothing has changed.

Mikey Johnson's avatar

As usual you are dead right. If Iran allegedly knows that this existencial battle is not over, merely paused, why didnt they take out more of Israel then?

GM's avatar

Iran had real military-technical problems during the most recent war. They were being suppressed and were not hitting what they had to at the needed rate.

It was even semi-officially half-acknowledged.

The hope is that the IRGC really needed the break and will use it better than the US.

They did use the previous one very well -- notice how almost nothing of value got taken out from on the ground in Iran the way that happened a year ago. Because measures were taken. But taking measures to protect against the threat from the more recent war does not necessarily prepare you for the next one. We shall see.

If they don't officially have ICBMs with nukes on them within six months, they are complete idiots.

Mikey Johnson's avatar

The mere possibility of Iran making nukes has been around for 40 years.

Israel will nuke Iran the same second they screw together a warhead.

And I agree, Iran was really hurt by all those attacks. No AD to talk about and forced to hide in tunnels. The 12-day War was more efficient with real targets hit in Israel.

Longtrail's avatar

Said with the typical fatal overconfidence of a gullible propagandized American. I know from experience because once I was just like you.

Julio Prestes's avatar

Iran is Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken.

Denis's avatar

lol, great comedy.

The Spectre's avatar

Would "The USA/Israel is Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken"?

Denis's avatar

That one is funny too, Spectre.

Dhdh's avatar

no final solution until that illegal jew state in occupied Palestine is eliminated

Alyosha's avatar

"The new fund is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations program and will not include any ⁠government money or grants, the source said, adding that companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing."

Get rich, or die trying.

"41 G7 energy billionaires have increased their wealth by $23.5 billion since the unlawful US and Israel war against Iran began, reveals new Oxfam analysis published ahead of the G7 summit in Evian, France. This is equivalent to about $1,000 in the time it takes to blink."

https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/ending-impunity-and-inequality

https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2026-06/Ending%20Impunity%20and%20Inequality.pdf

Victor's avatar

From the Western view, that is what it is all about - money.

Frank Sailor's avatar

They might try to eat their money one day soon? Or will we burn money to get it warm in winter again like done in the 1920 in Germany already?

Victor's avatar

These days they can't even eat their money or used it to keep warm - it's all in digital form - in a blink of the eye, it could be gone.

Denis's avatar
3hEdited

The report only covers what the US lost.

Iran took some pretty big losses, too.

Iran lost military and naval equipment and used up a portion of its drones and missiles.

Iran lost billions in oil revenue.

Iran's economy is in shambles with a near-worthless currency.

Iran also had a fair amount of its infrastructure destroyed.

Iranian civilian and military deaths number in the thousands.

I'm not sure if the parents of the 175 girls killed in a bombing think they won.

Human lives matter too.

The Iran conflict was a US-Israeli air bombing and drone war.

And you never know if it's really over.

There are always two sides to the conflict, where winning and losing in a bombing and drone SMO can be more a matter of nuances, pro and con.

The Spectre's avatar

Yes, in this illegal war the USA and Israel murdered thousands civilians and destroyed 20 000 civilian infrastructure, including 17 000 homes.

Yet Iran won this part of war. The majority of world, including the majority of American population, do support them. That support can only grow, as more are aware who Iranians and who American/Israelis are.

More war is coming shortly and it will last in intervals for another 18 months. With 10 000 times more murdered civilians with nuclear bombs, famine and disease and half country flatten to stone age. That is 15 000 000 murdered or 16% of population.

Yet Iran will win again. Use of nuclear bombs on Iran will mobilise China, Russia, Pakistan and the BRIKS to give full, unconditional support to Iran economically and militarily.

For the last 49 years they have dig up underground the whole critical infrastructure. They have learned to save their civilisation underground for the last 2000 years.

Read about Iran't cultural heritage.

"Concept of Underground City

An underground city is a series of linked subterranean spaces that may provide a defensive refuge; a place for living, working or shopping; a transit system; mausolea; wine or storage cellars; cisterns or drainage channels; all or several of these.

https://www.iranhrc.com/cultural/iran-underground-cities/

Denis's avatar
3hEdited

It was a US-led air bombing and drone war.

The Spectre's avatar

Bombing means war. Most Americans are against Iran war.

That is a background for the Second Civil War in the USA. Brutal and deadly, as the first one was.

There would be aerial bombs from drones. All cartels with their billions will fuel this civil war with all might they have.

Denis's avatar
3hEdited

Bombing means war.

Air-based war.

The Spectre's avatar

Air campaign is war. Illegal one. Without Congressional approval.

Denis's avatar

Agreed. I corrected.

Gnuneo's avatar

If somebody, another country, bombed your country from the air, with no legal justification or UN authority, would that be an act of war, Denis?

Denis's avatar

Good point, Gnuneo.

Air and drone-based war.

Gnuneo's avatar

Sorry, what did you expect? Russia has faced down Europe, Ukraine and NATO arms, but was a Great Power until recently. Iran all alone faced down the USA, the Global Hegemon, and its monstrously armed Little Satan Israel, along with many if not most of its neighbours - none of which had been under crippling sanctions for decades, and had spent $tns on imported weapons systems during that time.

This may not have been cowboys and indians at scale, but when the side that spent <10% of its attackers military budget wins, no-one truly expects there isn't going to be a hell of a lot of civilian bloodshed along the way by the Empire.

So you are asking too much. Of course, you could be reacting to the almost callous nature of the author's glee at this Imperial loss.

Do those girl's parents think "They won"? No-one who loses anyone in a war thinks that is winning (Well, being realistic, some will ofc), but they can separate the personal loss from the national victory. against a foe that wanted to bomb the country back to the stone age, split it up into racial cantons, and create a bloody civil war between them to tear the civilisation to pieces. Their daughters were unlikely to survive, or to want to see such a future. How would YOU feel if your home was under such a threat?

"The Iran conflict was not a war, but a US-Israeli bombing and drones SMO."

It wasn't an SMO, because it was not defined as such legally before the action. It was an undeclared, full scale war against what was expected to be a defenseless country, and the rape was foiled by the unexpected strength and will of the defenders. It was a war - and will probably be a war again.

I hope the Iranian govt is building deep shelters for the population too. And ones with biological warfare sensors too.

Denis's avatar

It was an air-based war.

I stand corrected.

grr's avatar
2hEdited

"Iran took some pretty big losses, too."

Not nearly as much as the Zionists.

"Iran lost military and naval equipment and used up a portion of its drones and missiles."

That's what they are for, to be used in self defense. (Does the fire brigade whine about using their stored water to put out a house fire?)

"Iran lost billions in oil revenue."

So too did the Zionists

"Iran's economy is in shambles with a near-worthless currency."

Bullshit

"Iran also had a fair amount of its infrastructure destroyed."

Shitrael has way more. And the losses of US bases is in the range of 50 billion at least.

"Iranian civilian and military deaths number in the thousands."

US military personnel dead and wounded in the thousands too.

"I'm not sure if the parents of the 175 girls killed in a bombing think they won."

Ask the parents of the dead 'meriKunts that as well.

I won't bother stating what measures show the Zionists lost, Everyone with a clear mind knows. What are you smoking Denis? Or snorting? Or injecting?

Denis's avatar

Historical Collapse: Since the early 2010s, and accelerating after 2018 sanctions, the Rial has lost over 95% of its value against the US Dollar in real terms, though exact figures vary by the specific timeframe and official vs. parallel market rates.

Common knowledge, grr.

You can't change facts with obfuscations, grr.

The rial is only worth 5% of its value from 15 yrs ago.

Sorry to hurt your feelings.

grr's avatar

All currencies lose value over time. USD for a great example.

And what about the rest of your false assertions?

Denis's avatar

USD never lost 95% of its value in 15 years. lol

Iran lost 95% of its value in that time.

Lucky for you, the rial is not your currency.

😂

grr's avatar

I never said it did. But it, and all, do lose value.

Once again, what about the rest of your false assertions?

Denis's avatar

I've covered it all.

I'm not playing the game anymore.

Frank Sailor's avatar

Zerohedge is a CIA cover and imperial mouthpiece camouflaged as 'critical'.

To cite the imperialist to make your point is an oxymoron.

By the way, China reduced their import to zero to stabilize the oil price for a while. Now Iranian tankers will resume delivery to China and other friendly countries and get paid one way or the other to compensate their losses. Plus there is the BRICS-Bank to help with many financial matters and Nabulina (head of the Russian central Bank) is meeting the minister of finance of Iran next week. I assume they're not talking about the weather.

Victor's avatar

What makes you think ZH is CIA-affiliated?

Denis's avatar
37mEdited

Here are some Iranian losses which you deny of course.

I guess I made that up, too. 😂Iran's military losses during the 2026 conflict (Operation Epic Fury), which began in late February, are significant but vary widely depending on the source, with figures often disputed between Iranian state media, Western intelligence, and independent monitors.

Personnel Losses

Military Killed in Action (KIA): Estimates range from 1,800 to 7,650 personnel. Iranian state media (IRNA) has reported lower figures around 1,800 "martyrs," while Israeli intelligence estimates range from 3,000 to over 7,000, including both IRGC and regular army (Artesh) members

1.

Senior Command: Iran suffered a decapitation of its high command. At least 48 to 52 senior officials and commanders were killed, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (killed in opening strikes on Feb 28), IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the heads of the IRGC Navy and Aerospace forces

1.

Wounded: Estimates for Iranian military wounded range from 4,200 to 15,000, though precise numbers are difficult to verify due to access restrictions

1.

Naval Losses Iran's navy, particularly the IRGC Navy (IRGCN), which relies on asymmetric warfare tactics, took heavy hits in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Vessels Destroyed/Damaged: Approximately 14 naval vessels were reported lost or destroyed, including:

1 Kilo-class submarine: Reportedly damaged during US/Israeli strikes

1.

Frigates: The frigate Jamaran was struck on March 9, suffering significant damage and crew losses

1.

Fast Attack Craft: The IRGCN lost numerous fast-attack boats and patrol vessels. On May 4, the US CENTCOM reported sinking 6 to 7 IRGC small boats during an attempt to interfere with a US escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz

1.

Strategic Impact: The IRGC Navy's ability to project power was severely degraded, leading to a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz in June before a tentative agreement to reopen it

2.

Other Military Equipment Losses Beyond personnel and naval assets, Iran lost a substantial portion of its air defense and air power:

Combat Aircraft: Approximately 18 combat aircraft (including F-4s, F-14s, and Su-24s) were destroyed, largely on the ground at airbases like Hamadan and Bandar Abbas

1.

Air Defense Systems: Satellite imagery and intelligence assessments confirm the destruction of at least 22 air defense systems, including Bavar-373 and S-300 batteries

1.

Missile Launchers: An estimated 60 ballistic and cruise missile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) were destroyed by coalition strikes

1.

Context of the Conflict These losses occurred during a 3.5-month conflict that saw direct strikes on Iranian soil, missile exchanges with Israel, and a US naval blockade. The conflict effectively ended with a tentative agreement reached on June 14, 2026, which called for a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though diverging interpretations of the deal's terms remain

2

4. The war also resulted in significant civilian casualties, with over 3,700 Lebanese civilians and an estimated 1,700 to 3,600 Iranian civilians killed

1.

Note: Casualty figures in active conflicts are often contested, with state actors having incentives to minimize their own losses and maximize enemy casualties. The figures above represent the low-to-high ranges provided by independent trackers and government sources as of mid-June 2026.

Sources

grr's avatar

List what the shitraelis and meriKunts lost too. For balance. List all military and technical, and civil infrastructure destroyed in GCC and shitrael.

You are soundding like a Zionist troll tbh.

Denis's avatar

grr, pull yourself together, man.

I was just pointing out that Iran took some big losses, too.

That's it.

Why get all emotional over a simple statement I made? Now you say I'm a Zionist troll.

Zionists don't cheer for Iran, grr. 😂

Now cheer up.

The Spectre's avatar

For the last 15 years Iran had inflation 9% yearly at the beginning, gradually to 50% in 2025.

Part of economic crisis was confiscation of over 300 billions in international deposits and it's own defence expenditure.

They were spending 10 billion yearly on military.

Yet they won with the USA spending up to 800 billion yearly.

It means Iran's military and planning genius and comparison to the USA idiocy and corruption.

Denis's avatar

The problem with your argument, grr, is that I never denied US or Israeli losses.

You're asserting against a point I never made, from being over-emotional and non-objective. Comical.

grr's avatar

I once had a mate just like you. Nice enough bloke, meant well, but thick as a brick. Couldn't apply logic, and pulled silly arguments out of his arse all the time.

Impossible to have a serious conversation with. Lost in his own world of warped thinking.

Denis's avatar

All I was saying is that both sides experienced losses, which you interpret as you can only talk about US losses or your feelings get hurt, and you resort to obfuscating gobbledygook. hahaha

Victor's avatar

Whether you win or lose a war is entirely dependent on your objectives in that war. USrael did not accomplish even on of their objectives - not one. Iran accomplished their one objective - to survive the onslaught.

Iran won. USrael lost.

grr's avatar

Boom!

And as a bonus they gained more than they had before the cowardly attack.

Victor's avatar

A commonly overlooked fact. Iran has already replaced their losses in weaponry and even gained, so they have more now than they started with. USrael OTOH have decimated their supplies of standoff weaponry, the kind needed in this war, and it will likely take a decade if not more to replace them, IF they can even manage that.

Jullianne's avatar

The US is retreating to 'the old songs are the best songs' playbook of getting other parties- not real people- to fight and die for it. Bring on Syria and Al Jolani whose praises Trump has been heaping. Let him and his guys get stuck into Lebanon, Trump says, then Israel can back off out of it too.

These chaps are Sunni, Iran is Shi'ite, and so Trump hopes he can ignite some useful and profitable regional warfare displacing his ill starred intervention that was on the brink of turning everyone hostile to the US. The US can come back in for another go when Iran has had the edge buffed off it by native nutters. But the Arabs as well as the Persians have been on learning curve in this regard.......

Prepare the auditorium for Act 2.

grr's avatar

Yeah, what a silly statement from Drumpf. AQ in Syria has fuck all military equipment left after the shitraelis destroyed it in the aftermath of Assad's ouster. Even if they wanted to be the attack dog they can not.

Victor's avatar

And Syria is not in any way a unified force, there being many competing factions, including a former military component that has remained hidden since being removed from power, but which is quietly working towards the right moment to cause trouble.

The Moose's avatar

The frozen Iranian assets probably aren't worth much anymore in real terms due to several decade's worth of dollar value degradation. It's doubtful that the accrued interest in that time amounts to any meaningful amount either, and in any event it was probably all stolen. If you want to talk about psychological effect, then this is disastrous for the US since the return of these assets represents a massive failure of American sanctions policy.

"The new fund is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations program and will not include any ⁠government money or grants, the source said, adding that companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing.

Oh yeah, sure, totally, wink wink wink. I wouldn't be surprised if the Iranians have some very skilled accountants who will make sure that any and all dollars (or other currencies) from this "private investment vehicle" will be immediately swapped into renminbi and good delivery gold bars.

Gnuneo's avatar

Uh, we know the values of the frozen assets, and I don't know about you or your financial situation, but $200-300,000,000,000 would be personally appreciated, 30 years ago or now. I don't know the details, but as Russia's frozen assets are also increasing in value as the assets increase, it should be assumed the same can be true for Iran's.

Iran will need that money FOR reconstruction, the USrael wrought destruction across the country. And many buildings will have to be rebuilt stronger, and with new bomb shelters.

Along with the repayments of debts, very little will end up as Iranian gold bars in vaults, I expect.

grr's avatar

Correct, the money isn't sitting idle.

SG_observer's avatar

There are hints from multiple leaks.. that the losses US suffered are much worse than what we've figured out here. Just no obvious official confirmation, except from their utimate behavior - giving in to Iran's conditions. Will US adhere to the MOU? Unlikely... there's still deluded chicken hawks and dumbass neocons galore in the US... but the more rational folks have tried their best to keep whatever's left of the empire together... internal fractious war to come - in the US.

NiggleS's avatar

Can't win militarily, so we'll give you money to build stuff, with as many strings attached as we think we can get away with, $300 Billion is a nice start...

Aelwed Bell's avatar

What a complete dog's breakfast this is. Trump and Netanyahu are just evil clowns. How can we allow people like this into head of state positions?! All of this useless war and destruction, which is then followed by reconstruction and reparations? Do you see how utterly insane this is? We are on a hijacked train that is being controlled by criminal psychopaths, and we are speeding towards our own destruction. The lunatics have indeed taken over the insane asylum and all innocent citizens will be turned into collateral damage as the end result. Israel and the USA should both be OUT of the Middle East. They are the problem. There will never be any form of stability in the ME until these two monsters are GONE.

J. Lashley's avatar

So Iran, who is resistant to being told how to do anything, needs longer range ASBMs an SAMs. Even though this is a huge victory for them, not obliterating the tanker fleets on the ground, allowing the accumulations, and allowing the blockade to happen without sinking a single warship or downing with their AA even 1 large bomber are huge negatives. The blockade would have been ineffectual if the USN was forced 2,000km away from the coast, and there would be flights over Iran at all if they had mobile SAMs with even a 150km range.

It is also odd to me that it seems like Iran's extensive inventory of ISRs drones and other advanced drones/cruise missiles did not seem to get used.

Maybe they are looking very long and are saving those for the final battle, but for the most part I doubt it.

The next time America and Israel begin a mass accumulation, the IRGC needs to actually do something instead of just mindlessly absorbing the damage when they literally do not have to.

Herman's avatar

Another day, another reading of the peace deal.

Herman's avatar
3hEdited

And this "row" between the US and Israel: reality or smoke & mirrors?