415 Comments

I still expect funding/aid to make it to Ukraine, simply because its too big a money pot to not send to various congressional districts and so on.

Republicans are - cynically - probably trying to get enough money to please their constituents, but not enough that Biden gets a win. They are plotting his demise next year. That, is more important than anything happening on the steppes of Ukraine.

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Dec 6, 2023Liked by Simplicius The Thinker

I like the short update. It gives me some time to catch up. I have dozens of things I want to do and can't find the time. Your Sitreps are mandatory reading for me though.

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The MIC and the global corporate elite WILL get their way. Johnson is just making points. He'll get some pointless deal on the border and then give Biden all he wants and more. Doesn't much matter, Biden has stocked every borderline election district with illegals at this point anyway.

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" It implies they aim to continue this war to the end and, unlike the West, are laying the real groundwork."

And what am I on record as saying since April,. 2022? That Russia intends to remove Ukraine from the board completely, and install a new Military District on the Polish and Romanian borders to counter the NATO Aegis Ashore installations - which can only be countered by playing Russian S-300/400/500 AD as close to those installations as possible - as well as any future NATO buildup which might threaten Russia.

In other words, in conjunction with this effort and the effort to integrate Belarus' military into the Russian military and the building of new Military Districts in northern Russia, Russia intends to build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic, thus shutting out NATO forever - unless NATO wants to start a nuclear war - which Russia is also prepared for.

Face it, folks - Russia has been invaded or threatened by invasion by the West how many times in the last hundred or so years? Russia is saying, "Enough is enough. The West is the Enemy. We will not allow any further aggression."

This is why Russia is ramping up its military. It's going to need a half million troops, air bases with MiG-31Ks with Kinzhals, air defenses, a naval base in Odessa, etc., etc. in western Ukraine as well as in northern Russia. This is the ONLY way you counter NATO without resorting to invading Poland and Romania and Finland and everyone else.

And absolutely no one gets this but me. It's hilarious.

As for Zelensky being "despondent", let's hope he takes Hitler's way out and sticks a 9mm up his nose. Meanwhile I saw the Redacted Youtube channel today suggested Zelensky will be moved to the US and given US citizenship. Might as well, he already has a Miami mansion. And if he goes anywhere other than the US, the Russian will get to him. And I wouldn't give odds on his surviving in the US, either. If ever someone deserved assassination, it's Zelensky.

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That poll should have also included the option 2025/2026. That's my guess.

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Anytime now, I'm expecting Russia to start destroying power infrastructure in Ukraine. They are probably waiting to see if the West will throw more money in there first.

You have to admire how patiently Russia is bleeding the West in the SMO.

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I cannot vote above, so I'll gave my view here: Zelensky will be out (dead or alive) during January 2024, and by the spring Ukraine will be finished. Russia will not accept a "freeze" nor a cease-fire, and will extend its annexation to Odesa and on the border with Moldova, and perhaps take Kiev.

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Love your updates. One point I would debate with you on is why the border migration is occurring in the first place (or more correctly, why the US government is allowing it happen in the manner that it is --- I get why the migrants want to come to the US, what is not clear is why the US is allowing it to happen in such numbers and so chaotically). Technically, I don't think that the uncontrolled mass migration into the US is for the 2024 election -- longer term, when and if these migrants get voting rights, then 'yes', it is about a Democrat-leaning voting base and winning elections but near term, 'I doubt it' (in part because in the short term the Republican and Democrat machines can rather easily 'manufacture' whatever voting fraud they want without having millions of illegals in the country -- illegals help the fraud process but are not essential to it).

So, if this chaotic mass migration is not for elections (in the near term), why does it occur? Part of the answer is because 'donors want it' -- but why do donors want it? For cheap labor in the (Republican donor owned) meat packing plants and farms --- partly -- but the sheer numbers of migrates far exceed what is required to 'suppress' local's wages in the short term. Is it to staff the US military (as Senator Dick Durbin proposed yesterday) - unlikely --- there are plenty of legal ways to attract immigrants into the military to do that today (if you think that is a good idea and something the US should do). Is it because 'migration' is a 'human right' or because of 'climate change' or 'reparations' for centuries of Western tyranny? Some some donors, volunteers, NGO's, and decision makers may think so, but I doubt that most US decision makers are choosing to allow this to happen on humanitarian grounds and principle. Is it to cause societal tension, confusion, and chaos (in urban centers, border regions, etc) -- well, I'd have to say almost certainly 'yes'. This, to me, is the really scary and important part of the story. It's not about elections, or wages, or social-justice, but about 'destruction' of the existing order from within by elite. Whether that elite is foreign-controlled and paid for, traitorous and merely ambitious for power & control, or something else is uncertain --- but the fact that this elite is implementing something revolutionary (and something like to prompt a counter-revolution) is unmistakeable (in my opinion).

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The deliberations in the US congress are just political theatre. The Republicans are no more interested in border security than the the Democrats. If the puppet masters want Ukraine funding they'll get it. If they don't they'll use the excuse of 'extreme right wingers' voting down the proposal.

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Cool robot, how did the Ukroids miss twice?

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There is a decision making layer that is not visible immediately. Not a conspiracy, lizzards, aliens etc more like a mixture of deep state, and wall street, every individual keeps his freedom of decision, and yet a groupthink prevails. They determine US strategy and express themselves in short, simple sentences, like a beginner’s course in logic.

At this level a conclusion has been reached that current US strategy in Ukraine is unsuccessful, not producing results. Now we’ll see who is going to be Mr Wolfe, the one to organize a clean up. It will not be Nuland, she is one of the original organizers of the whole catastrophe. Someone to try what Kissinger used to do.

A clean up, and from the approach to this cleanup one could try to guess what will be the next strategy towards Russia and Europe.

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Very impressive , imaginative consciousness in action . Seeing that remote controlled vehicle delivering goods back and fort , rescuing the wounded . How can anyone think to defeat such resourcefulness . Even the dumb ones in congress asking why should they throw good money after bad . They are being outplayed every which way possible . The Institute of Study of War , what a comedy ? Shut them down and send all the personals to some construction site where they can be useful in some capacity .

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Russia has wisely offered peace, not a ceasefire, but peace. Along current frontline. It is the exact opposite of what warmongers are preaching, and is probably intended to give Ukrainians the chance to understand what they can expect from the West, once Ukrainians give up on being a proxy against Russia, what they will get from the West is on them and the West. If this strategy works some Ukrainians, like Arrstovich is doing, will begin questioning the basic Ukrainian strategy:

fight the Russians, reject all compromise offers and West will give you everything, modern army, lot of money, NATO and EU and victory, meaning subjugating Donetsk and Lugansk and the big prize Crimea, with no Russians.

But victory is clearly impossible, Territory lost, and West is encouraging Ukraine to keep on fighting the war, with dwindlling weapons suplly, help, with no NATO in the immediate future...

Actually West is promising, expecting, demanding the postponement of defeat. With vague promises that things might get better in the future, in 2025, after US elections...if Biden wins

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6 December 2023 FT US Faction struggles with Trump in background, EU self destruction

A record crop today

‘Republicans tell Biden US aid for Ukraine depends on immigrations curbs’

https://www.ft.com/content/3827fcfd-7843-4d28-a1fd-967b4fb6d714

‘Hardline stance’ = fading political and popular support for the war is finally acknowledged but decried as ‘hardline’ as opposed to easily ignored

EU disunion breakdown

‘Ukrainian truckers blocked in Poland: People forgot our war’

https://www.ft.com/content/fdb5a794-67fc-4125-8a74-687e0fe55f7b

‘Why Slovakia and the Czech Republic want to continue using Russian oil’

https://www.ft.com/content/b40e8a9d-6f2a-40cb-b134-2a732535e5e6

Notice ‘using’, not ‘importing’

But the major concern is

‘Germany is trying to close a major gap in its government budget, but private funding is also not looking rosy. A benchmark survey by Munich’s Ifo Institute shows that German companies have slashed their investment plans for this year and next.’

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Hard time for supporters, but they can always go somewhere else, support climate change, or go on with academic, diplomatic careers, and wait for the US deep decision level to produce next strategy.

Hardest for Ukrainian leaders, they have to start thinking with their own heads, what is the best strategy for Ukraine. Fighting on or negotiating, trying to reach an agreement.

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I like your writing and analysis. Really well done. The sourcing and fact checking is first rate. However, from my research effective de-dollarisation is decades away as a lot of financial infrastructure has to be in place to supplant the US dollar as a reserve currency.

I certainly have learnt much from your analysis of Ukraine. Do you think the war in the Middle East will expand? I think it likely has to, as Israel is determined to ethnically cleanse the Occupied Territories and create a Greater Israel. However, I doubt the sincerity of US-backed Arab (Egypt, Saudis, Gulf states and Jordan) also Turkey.

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