This past July, one of the most remarkable articles of the entire Ukrainian war flew under the radar. I’ve had it sitting on my tab for weeks now, but could never quite fit the information in. It is so eye-opening, and dispels so many narratives in the West, that I thought it deserving of its own writeup; particularly because it has flown so under the radar for whatever reason, causing most people to miss its many juicy revelations.
This doesn't add up. On one hand the US in concert with other countries is going out of its way to wreck Russia economy, and provide overwhelming ISR to make sure as many Russian soldiers are killed in Ukrainian strikes, with various pols and military types mouthing off. On the other hand they are supposedly acting with restraint so that Russia doesn't escalate? They've driven Russia into a full on war posture in terms of their industrial stance, and BRICS is now a sledgehammer aimed at the Dollars head. We are for all intents and purposes already in ww3. This CIA thing sounds like a "you can only kill each other with small caliber weapons" like it matters how dead you are at the end
There was a time when I might have taken some of what comes out of DC seriously. Now however, due to DC's observed behavior, it is clear those in control are utterly incompetent psychotic sociopaths (self installed). Nothing from their mouths is anything other than self serving narratives spawned within pathology ridden "minds". In short, nothing out of DC is even marginally credible anymore.
Incidentally, DC being beaten by Russia should come as no surprise since it was not just beaten but humiliated by a relatively small number of tribesmen and foreign fighters armed with little more than small arms in Afghanistan. However I want to note I'm not being critical of dedicated, competent military service members, particularly junior members. I'm a US Army vet myself. Perhaps that is why I see just how wildly disconnected DC has become from reality (it was never good). Those incompetent self centered psychos are now endangering ever innocent soul on our planet.
I would be very skeptical of anything Newsweek prints. Not to mention "anonymous" sources. The administration plants its seeds in publications like The NYTimes, WaPo, and Newsweek. But if the CIA is playing such a "conflict-limiting" role in Ukraine, it had better wrap it up and get over to the Middle East...fast.
EU indeed NATO handing over policy propaganda to the miniature border statelets – this involves broadcasting that the war must go on, even if the RF should win in Ukraine (not that it will!)
““Russia will not stop, Russia can only be stopped. Stopping Russia in Ukraine does not mean that it is over. It simply means we will have to continue. That is what is important for Nato: that we will have to work on a long-term strategy of Russia containment,” Kariņš said.”
That is to say Victory over Russia in the Ukraine will not really be victory at all, more like..the beginning of an endless and more widespread war
Hard to see the EU or NATO reacting very efficiently to this call to arms given they have failed to respond in any practical and general way to all calls so far – but it’s the call that counts –
The only practical military planned response, as far as I am aware, is the German proposal to send what promises to be an undermanned underarmed brigade to Lithuania in 2027 –even if the German Chief of Army states it is impossible to execute this plan given lack of personnel, budget restrictions and short supply of armaments : Lithuania protests it has’nt the money or infrastructure to accommodate this brigade
Even the FT commentariat are bored, when you lost the FT commentariat better go for Plan B
Only the Balts bother to try to shame the rest of Europe into doing something, the major European countries have moved on, yet, yet…it’s all so simple, finishes with the inevitable Winston Churchill quote...
The only practical reporting, suggesting awareness of any possible path to victory, is the following pinprick detail – which clearly displays British Defence Ministry aims and limitations
‘Immediately, in a matter of days, this means more air defences. In a matter of weeks, it means more long-range missiles, notably the German Taurus, but also American ATACMS, so Ukraine can continue to push back Putin’s Black Sea fleet and target his strategic and symbolic stronghold in Crimea.’
You mean “flouting”. Not “flaunting”. Those who confuse the two are NOT serious people. You need a copy editor. Even high school students aren’t this dumb.
Good article. I was hoping to expound on a major point, or that you would. This is the second time you mentioned it:
"This means if a scenario developed as I described earlier, it would end precisely as I outlined: NATO disunity on Article 5 would risk tearing the entire alliance apart, and “exposing” its central and founding pillar as fraudulent and ineffective in practice. It’s too grave a risk for US to haphazardly take on."
But let's think about that. What IF a NATO country was attacked and Article 5 wasn't invoked? Would it really expose anything? And by that I mean, you lay out exactly *why* some countries wouldn't want to, so in essence we all already know that on *some* fronts, Article 5 and NATO are fraudulent, or at least a helluva lot more fluid and situational than some of the NAFO/OFAN ponybois like to pretend.
Here's the text of Article 5:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security ."
Article 6 goes on to explain what constitutes an attack as named in Article 5, but anyway, the last paragraphs are key. "...to resore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." and "...the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
Which, to me, having never actually read Article 5 before, already sounds like a bunch of weasely bullshit on its face! Mkay, so say Russia blows up a huge ammo storage center in Poland which it knows to be a location from which many Ukrainian attacks on Russia or Russian assets relied for munitions. It's a one-and-done strike. Poland would never then launch a military attack against Russia without ALL of the other members of NATO taking part, which of course means the USA, UK, and every other NATO nuclear power, followed by nuclear annihilation. I mean it's just laughable on its face.
And the word "including" is carrying a lot of weight there. INCLUDING a military response. OK, but that means that it also means a whole bunch of other types of actions. LOL
And where am I going with that? There's only one type of defense entailed in NATO, and I'll get to it shortly. NATO has next-to-nothing to do with actual defense, and only slightly more to do with offense (except against weak Global South countries - other bodies handle that with Russia and China, not to mention Iran). What NATO is, is (i.e., ISIS lol) is a massive, fraudulent excuse/rationalization mechanism and marketing/PR arm of the Western military munitions and **munitions defense** systems. In other words, it's a key cog in the giant racket known as Western coercion and blackmail of the RotW through the (insufficient in actuality, but that's the point! lol) manufacture of weapons and weapons defense systems to member nations' governments and militaries, but more than that it's a huge "defense-as-a-service" consultancy. And we've all seen that famous Dilbert cartoon.
Q: "What's a consultant anyway?"
A: "It's someone who CONS and inSULTS you!"
And I should add that when you consider all of this, NATO also exists to continually inflame perpetual tensions and provoke "controlled" and would-be "controllable" conflicts in order to sell those arms and "services".
> That should serve as a wake up call for Ukrainians: you are merely being used as disposable puppets in a geopolitical Great Game.
Exactly. Like I told some 2D Ukraine guys on Discord in 2021. Several times over, I showed them that Americans aren't going to be duying for them. But was I listened to? Of course not! \o/
There’s also this bizarre assertion that the CIA is at all competent, capable, and not encumbered with petty internal pissing contests. They’re not remotely close to that, particularly if you take a long look at their historical ineptitude.
Ultimately, this is the US shitting its pants, desperately trying to convince itself AND the world that it’s indomitable and simply “being a gentleman”.
If the CIA and the “elite cabal” had any brains, they’d have never committed acts of terrorism and theft via blowing up NS2 and now seizing assets. In flagrant violation of established “rule based order”.
Unless these “secret red lines” are actually codified somewhere and you’ve get the evidence, this is bullshit. “It’s super duper seekrit, but I promise you it’s true.” It’s Hugh Hefner, looking pathetic and feeble in his old age, who refuses to take a dignified exit. No, the US and the CIA just dazzle themselves with gaggles of hot blondes, while the rest of the world sniggers behind their backs.
The US and NATO are rapidly becoming J. Alfred Prufrock.
Without further evidence I'm inclined not to believe this story about the CIA, particularly now that the US has announced they will provide 404 with longer range missiles able to reach Moscow et al. Remember it only takes one psycho to say f...'em and we are all toast.
NATO can't even supply Ukraine with enough ammo let alone themselves if they fucked around in Ukraine and found out. Russia would absolutely smoke them - if they allowed them to stage in the first place. In real war attack subs and zircon would have some fun with US supply ships. Then the death tolls...American couldnt handle 2000 in iraq before squealing started....imagine 3600 a day like DoD war game doc said. Nukes all bets are off but NATO has no chance to conventionally beat Russia in Russia. Just like Russia can never dream of beating US in US.
As far as this CIA limited hangout. I'd like to believe it's more than CYA as you do and they are telling Biden we need to cut bait from these Ukieloonies but Bidens unhinged rhetoric was worse than ever today vs Republicans slow roll in funding and wrt Putin. He's certainly all in to the last Ukrainian.
To those who call bullshit and cite the future (alleged) provision of munitions capable of reaching Moscow, etc. - How likely do you think they ever will, and if you were able to put money on it, how much would you be willing to lay down? Because I'm pretty sure there will never be a major attack on Moscow before this is all said and done, which will be soon, for several reasons including that 404 no longer has enough conscripts to fight for and occupy any meaningful Russian held territory in Ukraine.
Thanks, a good read
This doesn't add up. On one hand the US in concert with other countries is going out of its way to wreck Russia economy, and provide overwhelming ISR to make sure as many Russian soldiers are killed in Ukrainian strikes, with various pols and military types mouthing off. On the other hand they are supposedly acting with restraint so that Russia doesn't escalate? They've driven Russia into a full on war posture in terms of their industrial stance, and BRICS is now a sledgehammer aimed at the Dollars head. We are for all intents and purposes already in ww3. This CIA thing sounds like a "you can only kill each other with small caliber weapons" like it matters how dead you are at the end
There was a time when I might have taken some of what comes out of DC seriously. Now however, due to DC's observed behavior, it is clear those in control are utterly incompetent psychotic sociopaths (self installed). Nothing from their mouths is anything other than self serving narratives spawned within pathology ridden "minds". In short, nothing out of DC is even marginally credible anymore.
Incidentally, DC being beaten by Russia should come as no surprise since it was not just beaten but humiliated by a relatively small number of tribesmen and foreign fighters armed with little more than small arms in Afghanistan. However I want to note I'm not being critical of dedicated, competent military service members, particularly junior members. I'm a US Army vet myself. Perhaps that is why I see just how wildly disconnected DC has become from reality (it was never good). Those incompetent self centered psychos are now endangering ever innocent soul on our planet.
I would be very skeptical of anything Newsweek prints. Not to mention "anonymous" sources. The administration plants its seeds in publications like The NYTimes, WaPo, and Newsweek. But if the CIA is playing such a "conflict-limiting" role in Ukraine, it had better wrap it up and get over to the Middle East...fast.
6 January 2024 FT Baltic Running Dogs Bark & Bonus – a rousing Auld Lang Syne
‘Russia will not stop in Ukraine Latvian Prime Minister warns’
https://www.ft.com/content/7b94ec46-c761-4de3-8df7-055602ace279
EU indeed NATO handing over policy propaganda to the miniature border statelets – this involves broadcasting that the war must go on, even if the RF should win in Ukraine (not that it will!)
““Russia will not stop, Russia can only be stopped. Stopping Russia in Ukraine does not mean that it is over. It simply means we will have to continue. That is what is important for Nato: that we will have to work on a long-term strategy of Russia containment,” Kariņš said.”
That is to say Victory over Russia in the Ukraine will not really be victory at all, more like..the beginning of an endless and more widespread war
Hard to see the EU or NATO reacting very efficiently to this call to arms given they have failed to respond in any practical and general way to all calls so far – but it’s the call that counts –
The only practical military planned response, as far as I am aware, is the German proposal to send what promises to be an undermanned underarmed brigade to Lithuania in 2027 –even if the German Chief of Army states it is impossible to execute this plan given lack of personnel, budget restrictions and short supply of armaments : Lithuania protests it has’nt the money or infrastructure to accommodate this brigade
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-brigade-be-combat-ready-lithuania-russian-border-2027-2023-12-18/
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-12-27/germany-army-lithuania-brigade-12478191.html
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/11/15/lithuanians-are-not-happy-with-the-deployment-of-a-german-brigade/
By which can be seen the disjunct between the running dogs barking up a fight and the barethread reality of their practical capability to do so
Bottom Line – The US once again throwing the EU to the wolves
BONUS – The Traditional New Year’s Lament or Auld Lang Syne
‘What the west can do to win the war in Ukraine
https://www.ft.com/content/5583c70d-64f3-4b8c-9da0-c921dbfc1310 https://t.co/VmwzgBGB5k
Even the FT commentariat are bored, when you lost the FT commentariat better go for Plan B
Only the Balts bother to try to shame the rest of Europe into doing something, the major European countries have moved on, yet, yet…it’s all so simple, finishes with the inevitable Winston Churchill quote...
The only practical reporting, suggesting awareness of any possible path to victory, is the following pinprick detail – which clearly displays British Defence Ministry aims and limitations
‘Immediately, in a matter of days, this means more air defences. In a matter of weeks, it means more long-range missiles, notably the German Taurus, but also American ATACMS, so Ukraine can continue to push back Putin’s Black Sea fleet and target his strategic and symbolic stronghold in Crimea.’
You mean “flouting”. Not “flaunting”. Those who confuse the two are NOT serious people. You need a copy editor. Even high school students aren’t this dumb.
Good article. I was hoping to expound on a major point, or that you would. This is the second time you mentioned it:
"This means if a scenario developed as I described earlier, it would end precisely as I outlined: NATO disunity on Article 5 would risk tearing the entire alliance apart, and “exposing” its central and founding pillar as fraudulent and ineffective in practice. It’s too grave a risk for US to haphazardly take on."
But let's think about that. What IF a NATO country was attacked and Article 5 wasn't invoked? Would it really expose anything? And by that I mean, you lay out exactly *why* some countries wouldn't want to, so in essence we all already know that on *some* fronts, Article 5 and NATO are fraudulent, or at least a helluva lot more fluid and situational than some of the NAFO/OFAN ponybois like to pretend.
Here's the text of Article 5:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security ."
Article 6 goes on to explain what constitutes an attack as named in Article 5, but anyway, the last paragraphs are key. "...to resore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." and "...the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
Which, to me, having never actually read Article 5 before, already sounds like a bunch of weasely bullshit on its face! Mkay, so say Russia blows up a huge ammo storage center in Poland which it knows to be a location from which many Ukrainian attacks on Russia or Russian assets relied for munitions. It's a one-and-done strike. Poland would never then launch a military attack against Russia without ALL of the other members of NATO taking part, which of course means the USA, UK, and every other NATO nuclear power, followed by nuclear annihilation. I mean it's just laughable on its face.
And the word "including" is carrying a lot of weight there. INCLUDING a military response. OK, but that means that it also means a whole bunch of other types of actions. LOL
And where am I going with that? There's only one type of defense entailed in NATO, and I'll get to it shortly. NATO has next-to-nothing to do with actual defense, and only slightly more to do with offense (except against weak Global South countries - other bodies handle that with Russia and China, not to mention Iran). What NATO is, is (i.e., ISIS lol) is a massive, fraudulent excuse/rationalization mechanism and marketing/PR arm of the Western military munitions and **munitions defense** systems. In other words, it's a key cog in the giant racket known as Western coercion and blackmail of the RotW through the (insufficient in actuality, but that's the point! lol) manufacture of weapons and weapons defense systems to member nations' governments and militaries, but more than that it's a huge "defense-as-a-service" consultancy. And we've all seen that famous Dilbert cartoon.
Q: "What's a consultant anyway?"
A: "It's someone who CONS and inSULTS you!"
And I should add that when you consider all of this, NATO also exists to continually inflame perpetual tensions and provoke "controlled" and would-be "controllable" conflicts in order to sell those arms and "services".
> That should serve as a wake up call for Ukrainians: you are merely being used as disposable puppets in a geopolitical Great Game.
Exactly. Like I told some 2D Ukraine guys on Discord in 2021. Several times over, I showed them that Americans aren't going to be duying for them. But was I listened to? Of course not! \o/
There’s also this bizarre assertion that the CIA is at all competent, capable, and not encumbered with petty internal pissing contests. They’re not remotely close to that, particularly if you take a long look at their historical ineptitude.
Ultimately, this is the US shitting its pants, desperately trying to convince itself AND the world that it’s indomitable and simply “being a gentleman”.
If the CIA and the “elite cabal” had any brains, they’d have never committed acts of terrorism and theft via blowing up NS2 and now seizing assets. In flagrant violation of established “rule based order”.
Unless these “secret red lines” are actually codified somewhere and you’ve get the evidence, this is bullshit. “It’s super duper seekrit, but I promise you it’s true.” It’s Hugh Hefner, looking pathetic and feeble in his old age, who refuses to take a dignified exit. No, the US and the CIA just dazzle themselves with gaggles of hot blondes, while the rest of the world sniggers behind their backs.
The US and NATO are rapidly becoming J. Alfred Prufrock.
"The Rules of Kanly must be obeyed!" -Ditector Burns (Probably)
If this article is remotely accurate, we can confidently guess that the CIA kept Ukraine from doing something stupid to the nuclear power plant.
Without further evidence I'm inclined not to believe this story about the CIA, particularly now that the US has announced they will provide 404 with longer range missiles able to reach Moscow et al. Remember it only takes one psycho to say f...'em and we are all toast.
NATO can't even supply Ukraine with enough ammo let alone themselves if they fucked around in Ukraine and found out. Russia would absolutely smoke them - if they allowed them to stage in the first place. In real war attack subs and zircon would have some fun with US supply ships. Then the death tolls...American couldnt handle 2000 in iraq before squealing started....imagine 3600 a day like DoD war game doc said. Nukes all bets are off but NATO has no chance to conventionally beat Russia in Russia. Just like Russia can never dream of beating US in US.
As far as this CIA limited hangout. I'd like to believe it's more than CYA as you do and they are telling Biden we need to cut bait from these Ukieloonies but Bidens unhinged rhetoric was worse than ever today vs Republicans slow roll in funding and wrt Putin. He's certainly all in to the last Ukrainian.
To those who call bullshit and cite the future (alleged) provision of munitions capable of reaching Moscow, etc. - How likely do you think they ever will, and if you were able to put money on it, how much would you be willing to lay down? Because I'm pretty sure there will never be a major attack on Moscow before this is all said and done, which will be soon, for several reasons including that 404 no longer has enough conscripts to fight for and occupy any meaningful Russian held territory in Ukraine.