192 Comments

1. "The aim seems obvious: Israel had hoped to defeat Hezbollah and thus eliminate Iran’s influence. But having lost, Israel has gone to Plan B, which is to eliminate Iran’s ability to resupply Hezbollah via Syria. To do that, Assad must fall. Not one to waste an opportunity, Erdogan appears to have played along for his own gains. Israel’s handprint on the attack was obvious this morning, by the way, when SAA was hit with a major “exploding beeper and radio” attack, wounding many SAA servicemen—a perfect replay of the same attack on Hamas earlier."

Ignore what Erdogan says, ignore his touching rhetoric about Gaza. Watch what he does.

2. Russian intel was caught flatfooted. Again. This is a problem and Russia needs to address it.

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He is just itching to do to the Kurds what Irael has done to Gaza. India too in regards to Kashmir. Every one will eventually suck the cock of Israel to gain access to its know how on suppressing 'minority elements' , including Arab govenments.

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And 50 years from now the historians are going to be fretting over how we slipped back into an age of colonialism and genocide.

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It never ended

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4hEdited

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I disagree. The Kurds are still useful to Erdogan in destabilizing Syria and Iraq.

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I mean, right now Erdoğan seems to be completely sucking up to the Kurds. They are all over Turkish media and they even want Apo out of prison to talk and create unity.

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And Erdogan thinks the Turks are blind fools to not see the Israeli leash around his neck?

Hmm....intrigues, intrigues.

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As with any politician. Intent matters 'nought; only actions matter. Erdogan is taking the Jewish Israeli banana in the mouth as hard as billionaire Justin Sun.

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2hEdited

Russian intel or the Kremlin?

It is quite plausible the GRU/SVR did their job well but the Kremlin slept on the reports as usual.

Furthermore, the Kremlin appears to have played quite a duplicitous role in the whole story from the beginning. Sure, they saved Assad the first time from losing everything, because they had to - they would have lost their sole bases beyond the Black Sea otherwise - but they didn't finish the job and they left him in a much, much more weakened and directly dependent on Russia position. Remember the whole scheme with Assad giving up his chemical weapons in exchange for not being bombed by the US? That is always presented as a Putin masterstroke, but what was the net result? Syria lost whatever deterrent it might have had against Israel, and then was still occupied by the US, and is bombed by everyone who feels like it weekly. While Russian AD situated in Syria is not reacting.

The Kremlin did this partly for their own cynical purposes -- if Assad depends on them fully, they can extract concessions.

But always, always, always, always remember that there are over a million Israelis/Russian dual citizens.

And it is a population that matters disproportionally -- **most of the Russian oligarchs are Jewish**. A lot of them with a second Israeli passport.

We talk a lot about the Israeli lobby in the DC, but never about the same phenomenon in Moscow.

Could that be placing the Kremlin in a bit of a compromised position with respect to this conflict? Just a tiny bit...

And more broadly -- Zelensky turned on Kolomoyski eventually, but that doesn't change the fact that Kolomoyski played a primary role in financing the Banderites when they were taking over Ukraine, even proudly walking around in a Zhidobandera T-shirt. Neither Zelensky, nor Kolomoyski, nor Yermak, nor any of the numerous other Jews running Ukraine have been touched by the Kremlin, even though Basic Warfare 101 mandated missile strikes on all of those individuals in the first days of the war.

Meanwhile the Israelis are following Basic Warfare 101 and doing exactly that to their enemies.

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Interesting contrast you point out between how Russia handled the Ukrainian leadership and how Israel manhandled the Hezbollah and Hamas leadership.

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Well Erdogan is an easy target to scapegoat but in an information war misinformation is used to weaken the strongest enemy. Erdogan has too much to lose in supporting this action especially with his attendance at the recently concluded BRICS conference and attempt at reintegration with the East.

Also Erdogan's recent actions to block the transfer of Azeri oil to Israel makes him a perfect target to defame and lose the support of the Turkish people. Further destabilization of Syria will only worsen Turkiye's refugee crisis. what benefit is it to continually support a West that continually reject and does its best to sabotage the Turkish economy? The issue is Turkiye may have many bad actors in the leadership more intent on self interest more than willing to sabotage the Turkish government's effort to break from the west.

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The turks are still transiting azerbaijani oil to israel. And erdogan is a wily bastard.

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Based on whose information? The same party that consistently and continually lie? I don't believe something because I want it to be true especially from sources with little credibility.

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You are the one that needs to provide a credible source that the turks stopped the transit. Not the other way round.

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Where is your proof that Erdogan took "recent actions to block the transfer of Azeri oil to Israel"? News to me. He served up plenty of sweet smelling word salads supporting the Palestinians, but never once turned off the taps. He has never moved to destroy the radicals near the Turkish border with Syria, instead feeding them, arming them, training them, holding them in reserve for his own use. He intruded on Syria's territory and even today holds large portions of it. He also, as I recall, committed to the purchase of F35s from the US Government - you don't purchase F35s from the US unless you have proven yourself a reliable ally - it simply does not happen.

Until I am convinced otherwise, I will continue to regard Erdogan as a snake, not to be trusted at all.

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I am questioning the current information because of recent developments. I did not say Erdogan was not a snake. My apologies for not believing information because it is just stated. So unless you are intimately involved in Turkish politics my sources may be the same as yours "he said she said".

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i have heard this but can find no good source for it..

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If Erdogan had cut off oil to Israel, you would hear Israel screaming to high heaven about it as they are highly reliant on it.

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Since the 2020 ceasefire. The Syrian army relaxed. And Erdogan prepared, armed and sent the militants into battle. In addition, Israel pulled Hezbollah forces out of Syria...

The situation is unpleasant and damages Russia's reputation, but not fatal.

And, by the way, the current events in Syria are very instructive - for Russia ceasefires that only benefit the enemy are not something to be accepted.

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For a guy who is supposedly a paranoid and devious schemer always intent on subverting muh freedom through underhanded means and thereby taking over the world (cue up maniacal comic book supervillain laughter), Putin sure seems to be awfully trusting.

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He is almost pathologically moral and law-abiding - which drives Paul Craig Roberts (for instance) up the wall.

But without such people, it would be a world hardly worth living in. As Simplicius argues in the article, the devious, dishonest, and unsane always start with an advantage.

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Putin is one of the very few adults in the room. Without him, we could very likely already be burned to cinders and glowing in the dark.

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I agree with you Michael. I for one really appreciate Putin's patience and humanity. The Russians play chess and the militant monkeys play with guns here. The Russians could lob a few of their new products into the massive Houston refining complex and a few other refiners on the east coast and it would be game over here. How did we Americans become so insanely suicidal? So effing arrogant and stupid? It pains me to even think about it.

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Watch and learn, and remember. Ceasefire in Ukraine can only work if Dnieper river and Danube are reached.

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Yes. This is the only reasonable solution.

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No ceasefire. Only unconditional surrender by the regime in Kiev. Otherwise what was the purpose of this war for Russia?

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Precisely. A ceasefire at the Dnieper would leave Ukraine to fight another day - which is what Russia intends to avoid. It is crystal clear to the Russians that the West can not be trusted with any ceasefire agreement - ever. Only unconditional surrender can lead to permanent peace in Ukraine.

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Erdogan has deceived Putin again. The militants have entered Eastern Aleppo and the whole of the city will be theirs in the morning

Whether the Syrian army will be able to resist the "rebels" is a big question. The Tiger Forces have gone and there's no Wagner.

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The situation is much more complicated. If Russia cuts the gas supply, Turkey is dead. And blieve me, whatever scenario you are thinking off for Ukraine is a nice little party.

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Oh, but Russia respects contracts even if the other side is killing Russians 🙄. Putin's patience might save the world, but it will come at a huge cost to Russians. He needs to play the game the other side is playing.

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Greater politics are at play between Russia and Turkiye. Turkiye has significant influence in Central Asian stans as they were all once part of the Ottoman Empire and are largely Turkic peoples. So Putin needs to walk a fine line there.

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Jeez. Erdogan would be more successful at deceit if he wasn't always practicing deceit. Fooled Putin? Some stretch.

Don't be surprised to see the Turkish Army try to march into Israel.

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To help with the genocide of the Palestinians? Erdogan's moves to improve his pro-Arab bonafides turned out to be dishonest, empty gestures (breaking diplomatic contact plus some almost-harsh statements condemning the extermination campaign).

Whether the Turkish army would follow those orders is unclear. But the orders sure as hell aren't going to be to take action against the Levantine Jews.

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Wagner group is not gone, it’s reborn in a new and better form. Prigozhin and few other leaders are gone. But the vast majority of staff are alive, much more experienced, and much better armed. The only difference is that they’re officially part of RU military now, not some PMC to hide the fact of RU involvement. If you believe that this somehow would restrict their deployment to Syria—no, RU certainly can and will dedicate forces, and their number can be much higher than ever before with the PMC.

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"Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from. . .Lebanon within a period of up to 60 days"

That is conveniently long enough for Trump to be inaugurated. So clearly Israel has no intention of actually withdrawing; they are only playing for time to restart the war when they have the US support they need.

Will Trump send US troops, or maybe just air support, into Lebanon to save the IOF from getting their arse whoopped? Time will tell, but it seems the Israelis are quite certain that he will, and betting the family farm on it.

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Trump is a jewish convert. He will do whatever the state of Israel requires of him... Chip

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6hEdited

Trump is loyal to Trump. A large percentage of the group that may not be named, despise Trump.

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With the central point of the Axis threatened, it would hardly be a surprise if Iran now sends some of its new air defences to aid Syria - and possibly cover Lebanon.

The US with its useless flying bricks might find it has bitten off more than it can chew quite quickly, if Trumpy falls for the zionazi bait.

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Has the U.S. Military forgotten their last short vacation in Lebanon?

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Jew soldiers film themselves desecrating church, mocking rituals in south Lebanon

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Call a spade a spade, Jew.

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Not all Jews are Zionists, not by a long shot.

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Stop cucking for jews

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Everyone else is an idol worshiper and an animal. This is what the Jews believe. Listen to them speak. They aren't hiding this from anyone. They speak about it openly. Only the MSM, also Jew controlled and owned, does not speak about it. It's time to call a spade a spade... Chip

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I agree. But not all western Christian's are Zionists. Only those taught according to the Darby/Schofield themed bible...

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As with many ancient writings from other languages, written, re-written, edited, sliced and diced, words that can mean many things, reading the Bible can lead you to what you want or lead you into another fantasy land.

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I think you might misunderstand what the Western Christian Zionists really believe. They aren't rooting for the success of the Jews; their eschatology demands a King ruling all of archaic ersatz Israel from the Rock of the Dome. Once that happens, the Jews in Israel must be exterminated for Rapture to occur. Christian Zionists support Jews being massacred en masse.

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I understand the zionists believe this, only 144k remain, those that convert if I recall. The rest must go. They are convinced the need to give their messiah a 'little push'. Imagine that?

I think the thread went a bit off about the bible and interpretations in the most fascinating ways. To be clear, I'm not drawing a connection between zionists and the prosperity gospel. I apologize for going off topic. Comment deleted.

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7hEdited

Far too many Jews believe what you say and make it quite explicit. Everyone should understand that and take it into account in their actions. Doing so is not in any way "anti-Semitic", if that term is to be constued as a criticism. But it must always be remembered that many people born Jewish are not like that at all, and are as moral as anyone -- and have to be brave to show their opinions.

The bad Jews divide humanity into two groups, Jews and Gentiles, one fully moral and having human rights, the other sub-human and having none. We must be careful to oppose that anti-human division, not adopt it with reversed polarity. The enemy are those willing to de-humanise "the other", not those born Jewish. (Even if there is a visible correlation between the two groups.)

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I had to enter the above reply as a single line and then edit it to my original text, because entering it as composed put the "REPLY" button in the same place as the menu gadget for the following comment, making it non-functional. Has anybody else had this problem?

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Yes, I had it earlier replying to post on Marat's substack. Took me a few mins to find a workaround.

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And again just below.

Something's going on.

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I experienced the same issue.

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And yet, like Islam, few Jews, secular of not, have the courage to renounce the Superiority Claim.

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If I don't believe it, why do I need to explicitly renounce it? Should Christians be expected to renounce chattel slavery, given that their Godhead supports that institution? ("Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ")

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It's amusing to watch a people write a Book of Fiction and Fables to aggrandize themselves while their Magic Sorcerer continues to kick them in the teeth.

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Ashkenazi (European Jews) don't believe that. They're almost uniformly atheists. Their support (outside of Israel) for Israel is conditional.

You're talking about the Orthodox varieties of the ethnic group, alongside the non-Ashkenazi variants.

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Erdogan seems familiar with Machiavelli. He should remember the fate of Cesare Borgia.

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And will Salome Zourabichvilli, in Georgia, have to play the piano like Zelya--?

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I can't believe the SAA didn't learn from the Hezbolla pager attack and ditch all their portable communication devices. That seems like such a huge oversight. Being an American that deeply sympathizes with the resistance axis it's hard not to get discouraged at the events in the middle east. It seems like nobody will stand in Israel's way of finishing off gaza and annexing the west bank. The whole point of Hezbolla launching it's operations against Israel was to take the pressure off of gaza. With nothing mentioned about gaza in the ceasefire I can't see this as anything other than a capitulation by Hezbolla even though they fought like lions they must have been damaged more than the pro resistance alt media was leading me to believe.

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"I can't believe the SAA didn't learn from the Hezbollah pager attack and ditch all their portable communication devices"

They did.

There has been only *one* confirmed radio explosion.

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6hEdited

They have a duty to the people of Lebanon as well, and the zionazis were genocidally attacking Lebanon too. They know Israhell will not keep the ceasefire long, but this way they have shown political morality.

The western media would have screamed it was Hez's fault for all the civilian casualties from then on.

Bastards.

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Why does what the western media say matter for Hezbollah?

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And the "story" could be complete Bull Sheet.

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I don't think Hezbollah's motivation was to take pressure off of Gaza and Hamas. I think they had their own motivations that coincidentally overlapped a bit with the genocide taking place in Gaza. To the extent the two groups are aligned, it's a marriage of convenience. Simplicius had a really good comment in the article about many different motivations usually being involved in major geopolitical moves.

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Hezbollah can't carry on if Israel decided to destroy whole of Lebanon. They're one segment of society and most others don't want to suffer for Palestine. That's why Hezbollah was limiting itself to tit-for-tat attacks on border before Israel started all out attacks inside Lebanon and changed the rules of engagement.

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Classic arab incompetence

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Early Bird Special?

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How many chairs can Erdogan sit in at once?

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https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

I have to agree with Colonel Cassad what a shameful surrender of a city.

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I wouldn't trust Cassad as far as I could throw him ...

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You seem like a very young man with his first hard-on near the leg of a young girl.

Be patient. No point in coming early.

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He reposted some AI generated fake videos today about Aleppo. He’s also still reposting Rybar daily, despite the audience being angry about this—just read the comments under such reports as people complain about the quality of such reports and the pro-UKR/West bias Rybar expresses almost in every post.

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4hEdited

(Have to split to two comments due to a posting bug)

Seriously, just remember that none of RU military bloggers predicted that Belousov will be the new MOD head. All were wrong. They proclaim that they have the best sources (or report with the authority like they do) but in fact they are just bloggers who have no military education, no links within the military. And yeah “Colonel Cassad” is just a nickname for Boris Rozhin…don’t expect a serious reporting and analysis.

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The terms seem completely skewed in favor of Israel. "Israel will withdraw forces from the Blue Line in 60 days" vs "Hezbollah will withdraw forces now" and "no preemptive strikes". Sounds like Israel is setting up to bushwhack their enemies.

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Empire of Chaos up to their old tricks. Really seems like the Biden admin is shitting on the doormat on the way out for the incoming Trump team.

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Nothing worse than a senile sore loser. A wicked fiend.

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Yeah, Biden is a bitter old fool who just wants to burn the place down on his way out. He's still pissed at getting robbed of the nomination and, coupled with his deep (corrupt) connections to Ukraine, seems to be taking a salt the earth policy to that poor country (as if they haven't suffered enough). Will be glad to see the back of him (not that I'm expecting much from Trump).

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what will be unleased under the new american messiah ruling over the self-appointed, exceptional people when he publicly marries the beast that rules over the chosen, will be a sight to behold!

the birth pangs come closer and closer together...

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Biden wasn't making decisions when he was installed 4 years ago, and he ain't making decisions now.

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Simplicius: "For instance, in Syria’s case, society returned to normality which allowed troops to be dismissed, command to weaken or grow lax, because Syria is a normal aspirant country, with citizens that seek to live and improve their lives. But in the terrorist dens of places like Idlib, all the militants could do was seethe and stew in their extremist resentment while fashioning grand vengeance plans at the expense of productive lives.

The same will happen in Ukraine. After a freeze, Russia—being a normal country—is much more disposed to return to a state of disarmed normality and forward-looking productivity, while Ukraine will be broken and consumed in its plans for retribution for years to come, if need be, planning to finally one day catch Russia subdued and off guard.

As such these barbarous forces always have the upper hand in patience and the element of surprise against developmentally superior countries seeking a return to normalcy, economic growth, and social development." - there is a spiritual side to this conflict that BOTH secularists and churchians dismiss, thereby eliminating the only solution to the problem. The problem?

Read what the Apostle Paul said in Acts 20: " Keep watch over yourselves and all the flock of which the Holy Spirit has made you overseers. Be shepherds of the church of God,[a] which he bought with his own blood.[b] 29 I know that after I leave, savage wolves will come in among you and will not spare the flock. 30 Even from your own number men will arise and distort the truth in order to draw away disciples after them. 31 So be on your guard! Remember that for three years I never stopped warning each of you night and day with tears. " - and throughout the centuries since, we keep dismissing it at our peril - REPEATEDLY!

All this activity by DaEmpre of Lies - DaSynagogue of Satan - we read about here at Simplicius and other sites is only possible because the church itself has become its servant - simply by ignoring the damn wolves. Some of the pulpiteers are the biggest wolves you can find - and the pew sitters just harp their pabulum taught from the pulpits. It's a vicious circle - only possible to be erased if churches got serious about their job - www.crushlimbraw.com - not a site for the faint of heart.

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I miss the economic view. Turkey needs Russian gas to survive the Winter and to keep the industry afloat. After a crazy currency policy, the only thing that gives the Turkish industry a plus point is cheap energy. Cheap energy is provided by Russia. Why is Russia delivering energy (gas!) to Turkey if they attack Syria, the only place the Russian Navy and Air Force can have bases in the Mediterranean? This is too complicated for me. On the other hand, Turkey wants modern US fighter jets, but deploys modern Russian air defence?!?!? Simplicius writes that Erdogan sees some Turkish interest? No more gas from Russia = Turkey is dead. Fighting the Kurds (this will come soon) = no more US jets. Support of Sunni terrorist = bad relations with Iran. Plots against Armenia were good in the days of Armenians beeing on the Russian side, but now they are on the US side. Break every diplomatic relation with Israel, but work together with the Aseris and the Sunni terrorist? The main logistics hub from China to Europe, that is save from Jemen rockets, is the rail from Sinkiang to Istanbul, a very good business for Turkey (I use it myself). So Turkey has every interest to calm down and have friendship, peace and trade, but they are escalating wherever possible. Again: I do not understand this, there must be some points I do not see.

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Turkey controls entry and exit to the black sea.

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Valid point.

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1. I suspect Russia would be happy to enforce the Montreux clauses if necessary

2. Unlike the Brits from 100 years ago, there are plenty of tools to persuade Erdogan to keep these agreed International waters open.

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Erdogan is going to switch to Israeli gas as soon as Netanyahu exterminates every Gazan and American Drilling Corporations can get their platforms moved to the eastern Med.

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Turkey is evil. Simple as

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Eva Karene Bartlett, one of the more reliable reporters from Syria, says her local sources claim Aleppo has not fallen and this was just a PR stunt.

https://x.com/EvaKBartlett/status/1862539536368087422

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Its fallen whether the militants can hold it is another question.

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Are you in Aleppo?

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No he believes anything he reads as long as it fits in his preconceived narrative.

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Exactly

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In every tragedy, there is always 1 comedian.

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