Thanks for taking time, making the effort with substack. Being in Africa there's next to zero coverage of Ukraine etc. Russia's shaping the battlefield on grounds of war of attrition. They're fully aware they're depleting NATO stocks and have superior weapons of all types. Western Lame stream media are too focused on political propaganda and the Westernised "Great Reset" is becoming unhinged quicker than expected. Like failed sanctions imposed on Russia, the Great Reset's barrelling down the same path, Russia, China, India (BRICS+) know it and is part of the economic "war of attrition".
yep...the problem is Western militaries were never created to fight true high-intensity "Total Wars", whereas Russia's doctrine has always been to build sustainable weapons for a 'Total War' scenario rather than hightech, expensive, low volume, high-maintenance weapons for 'local conflicts' like America's middle eastern adventures over the past few decades, so due to this the war of attrition can never be won by the west
I found your BitChute channel a few months ago, I find that these small videos give a lot of information. Now this blog, thank you ! However until now I thought that you were a russian speaker, I am not so sure any more because your article was written in perfect english...
Sorry, I should annotate. Basically ToE is Table of Organization and Equipment and is a sort of master index file for the brigade listing all of their troops, equipment, roles, etc. And (OOB) Order Of Battle is similar in that it lists the organizational hierarchy of the particular unit, the unit structure and disposition of its various officers, ranks, forces, etc. So my reference to this was that first the Russian mobiks do regular general training, and later as they get certified, they are officially inputted into various OOB's depending on need in that specific time of each respective battalion/brigade etc. The MOS is the 'Military Occupational Specialty' and basically is the specific job you will be assigned to in the field. So in the first month or two they may just be doing basic combat training, then depending on each one's previous experience, their certification rating and skillset observed by the commanding officers they could be placed in different MOS's for instance, someone out of shape with only basic skills might just be placed in a unit as a regular grunt, while someone who's demonstrated high proficiency might be chosen by command to be placed in a more advanced 'MOS' such as some intelligence or scout unit, or something along those lines. For instance someone might demonstrate high drone proficiency and instead of making them a grunt they'll instead assign them a drone operator MOS, etc, etc. This is why such specific assignments come later in the process depending on need and ability, but also take time, administratively and logistically to work out and send everyone to their units, get them acquainted, etc, etc, etc.
This is really great stuff, a detailed rational that is easy to follow and zero BS. Thank you so much for doing it.
There are all indications of a major Russian operation inside Ukraine and as Lavrov said, to make sure Ukraine is so far away from major cities so it can not bomb any one in Russia...that is an indication how far this ops may go...all the way to Dnieper...we will see soon if that is a reality.
it's a great honor to hear your feedback, you were big inspiration for me back in the Syrian war and syrianperspective / ziad fadel days. You kept us all in tune and morale high during those long, uncertain days and we still remember it fondly
I forget but I could've sworn Ziad just announced shutting down the site as it wasn't fully necessary anymore as the war was mostly won and the remainder in a stalemate anyway. As for his son Leith Fadel I'm not sure but seems like possibly twitter banned him last year, I haven't kept up--not sure what he's doing now
Feb 12, 2023·edited Feb 12, 2023Liked by Simplicius
I love how (normies) people think having 100, 000 men means fighting soldiers. You need to feed them, do laundry, bring supplies, fuel the vehicles, change oil, switch out worn barrels. Theres a lot of people that never get near the front that are needed to make the front work.
Then you need to deal with POWs, demining etc etc.
What they achieved with the relatively small numbers last year was remarkable.
Brilliant analysis, thank you. You had me confounded by all the abbreviations (I'm a total layman), so I made the following list. I would welcome any correction:
AFU – Armed Forces Ukraine
SMO - Special Military Operation
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group
ToE - Table of Organization and Equipment
OOB – Order Of Battle
MOSs - Military Occupational Specialties
DPR - Donetsk People's Republic Militia
LPR - Luhansk People's Republic Militia
VDV - Russian Airborne Forces
BAR - Combat Army Reserve (a Russian military reserve force implemented since 2021)
Thank you. It’s nearly impossible to get accurate information on Ukraine. I hardly recognize my country. What used to be evil is good and what was good is evil.
I agree with almost everything. Russia entered Ukraine not with a 3:1 superiority as is normally expected for an attacker but with fewer troops than the AFU and conquered 20% of Ukraine's territory. The 4 fundamental oblasts for a number of reasons that I will not elaborate on. The Kherson beachhead on the western Dnieper, a diversionary maneuver that could either turn towards Odessa or towards Kiev was instrumental in trapping and destroying thousands of AFU troops for months! And this article should also be proof that there will be no offensive. Which in a country the size of Ukraine would require 1 or 2 million troops and a declaration of war which the Kremlin has not yet resorted to! And I no longer expect it to recur with the AFU crumble!
Army that complains that it was invaded but never went to wait for the invader at the border because they were hired by the real invader, NATO in 2014, to wait for the Russian forces in the trenches and bunkers built by NATO engineers. But Russia served him what the world's largest land defense force usually serves - the artillery with which it has already broken several rings of Ukraine's in-depth defense. Almost without the support of the Russian air force (VVS) in the territory of Ukraine, always very tied by the SAMs of Ukraine, new and old, that the VVS never managed to destroy almost always with the radars turned off due to the intel in real time provided by the US. Russia still needs many more drones, swarms, to destroy the air defense systems that came to light for the first time in a theater of operations as fundamental as the Air Force itself. Which has been replaced by more effective missiles for static targets. From here Ukraine will also continue to be able to transport Western aid in mobile convoys to the front lines.
300,000 men are basically to liberate what is left of the 4 oblasts and I admit to extending in some places to the Dnieper due to the reach of western weapons! But they are mainly to defend the front line with more than a thousand kms and to avoid any AFU offensive. And after the collapse of the AFU it soon will see!
très bien je le lis demain
Thanks for taking time, making the effort with substack. Being in Africa there's next to zero coverage of Ukraine etc. Russia's shaping the battlefield on grounds of war of attrition. They're fully aware they're depleting NATO stocks and have superior weapons of all types. Western Lame stream media are too focused on political propaganda and the Westernised "Great Reset" is becoming unhinged quicker than expected. Like failed sanctions imposed on Russia, the Great Reset's barrelling down the same path, Russia, China, India (BRICS+) know it and is part of the economic "war of attrition".
yep...the problem is Western militaries were never created to fight true high-intensity "Total Wars", whereas Russia's doctrine has always been to build sustainable weapons for a 'Total War' scenario rather than hightech, expensive, low volume, high-maintenance weapons for 'local conflicts' like America's middle eastern adventures over the past few decades, so due to this the war of attrition can never be won by the west
I saw the simplicius76 tag on Bitchute. Your analysis is well researched and credible. Nice work. More please.
thanks, part 2 is incoming soon and it will be the biggest and most important one
Thank you, Simplicius76; I have been watching your BitChute channel daily since I have discovered it.
thanks!
Hello Simplicius76,
I found your BitChute channel a few months ago, I find that these small videos give a lot of information. Now this blog, thank you ! However until now I thought that you were a russian speaker, I am not so sure any more because your article was written in perfect english...
Arnould, near Paris, France
thank you!
Thank you @Simplcius for being here and providing us with a reliable info source!
Your work is appreciated in these dark misinformed times. Glory to Russia! Hail the mulit-polar world!
thank you
Really appreciated the bitchute channel over the last year. If those videos were on bigger platforms this fiasco might not have got so out of hand.
thanks I appreciate it
Could do with footnotes.
ToE, OOB and MOS for example.
Sorry, I should annotate. Basically ToE is Table of Organization and Equipment and is a sort of master index file for the brigade listing all of their troops, equipment, roles, etc. And (OOB) Order Of Battle is similar in that it lists the organizational hierarchy of the particular unit, the unit structure and disposition of its various officers, ranks, forces, etc. So my reference to this was that first the Russian mobiks do regular general training, and later as they get certified, they are officially inputted into various OOB's depending on need in that specific time of each respective battalion/brigade etc. The MOS is the 'Military Occupational Specialty' and basically is the specific job you will be assigned to in the field. So in the first month or two they may just be doing basic combat training, then depending on each one's previous experience, their certification rating and skillset observed by the commanding officers they could be placed in different MOS's for instance, someone out of shape with only basic skills might just be placed in a unit as a regular grunt, while someone who's demonstrated high proficiency might be chosen by command to be placed in a more advanced 'MOS' such as some intelligence or scout unit, or something along those lines. For instance someone might demonstrate high drone proficiency and instead of making them a grunt they'll instead assign them a drone operator MOS, etc, etc. This is why such specific assignments come later in the process depending on need and ability, but also take time, administratively and logistically to work out and send everyone to their units, get them acquainted, etc, etc, etc.
check the new article soon to go up, it's about new anti-drone systems, and will be of interest to you
These blogs of yours convey more information than the videos to be honest.
The videos are important too but I learn more from reading text.
thanks
This is really great stuff, a detailed rational that is easy to follow and zero BS. Thank you so much for doing it.
There are all indications of a major Russian operation inside Ukraine and as Lavrov said, to make sure Ukraine is so far away from major cities so it can not bomb any one in Russia...that is an indication how far this ops may go...all the way to Dnieper...we will see soon if that is a reality.
it's a great honor to hear your feedback, you were big inspiration for me back in the Syrian war and syrianperspective / ziad fadel days. You kept us all in tune and morale high during those long, uncertain days and we still remember it fondly
I've often wondered what happened to Syrian perspective and Leith Fadel. Just seemed to dissappear into the ether. Any one know the circumstances?
I forget but I could've sworn Ziad just announced shutting down the site as it wasn't fully necessary anymore as the war was mostly won and the remainder in a stalemate anyway. As for his son Leith Fadel I'm not sure but seems like possibly twitter banned him last year, I haven't kept up--not sure what he's doing now
I love how (normies) people think having 100, 000 men means fighting soldiers. You need to feed them, do laundry, bring supplies, fuel the vehicles, change oil, switch out worn barrels. Theres a lot of people that never get near the front that are needed to make the front work.
Then you need to deal with POWs, demining etc etc.
What they achieved with the relatively small numbers last year was remarkable.
Excellent, comprehensive analysis that maybe no one else has done.
Thank you sir
Brilliant analysis, thank you. You had me confounded by all the abbreviations (I'm a total layman), so I made the following list. I would welcome any correction:
AFU – Armed Forces Ukraine
SMO - Special Military Operation
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group
ToE - Table of Organization and Equipment
OOB – Order Of Battle
MOSs - Military Occupational Specialties
DPR - Donetsk People's Republic Militia
LPR - Luhansk People's Republic Militia
VDV - Russian Airborne Forces
BAR - Combat Army Reserve (a Russian military reserve force implemented since 2021)
Yep sorry about that, but you got them all right.
Thank you. It’s nearly impossible to get accurate information on Ukraine. I hardly recognize my country. What used to be evil is good and what was good is evil.
I agree with almost everything. Russia entered Ukraine not with a 3:1 superiority as is normally expected for an attacker but with fewer troops than the AFU and conquered 20% of Ukraine's territory. The 4 fundamental oblasts for a number of reasons that I will not elaborate on. The Kherson beachhead on the western Dnieper, a diversionary maneuver that could either turn towards Odessa or towards Kiev was instrumental in trapping and destroying thousands of AFU troops for months! And this article should also be proof that there will be no offensive. Which in a country the size of Ukraine would require 1 or 2 million troops and a declaration of war which the Kremlin has not yet resorted to! And I no longer expect it to recur with the AFU crumble!
Army that complains that it was invaded but never went to wait for the invader at the border because they were hired by the real invader, NATO in 2014, to wait for the Russian forces in the trenches and bunkers built by NATO engineers. But Russia served him what the world's largest land defense force usually serves - the artillery with which it has already broken several rings of Ukraine's in-depth defense. Almost without the support of the Russian air force (VVS) in the territory of Ukraine, always very tied by the SAMs of Ukraine, new and old, that the VVS never managed to destroy almost always with the radars turned off due to the intel in real time provided by the US. Russia still needs many more drones, swarms, to destroy the air defense systems that came to light for the first time in a theater of operations as fundamental as the Air Force itself. Which has been replaced by more effective missiles for static targets. From here Ukraine will also continue to be able to transport Western aid in mobile convoys to the front lines.
300,000 men are basically to liberate what is left of the 4 oblasts and I admit to extending in some places to the Dnieper due to the reach of western weapons! But they are mainly to defend the front line with more than a thousand kms and to avoid any AFU offensive. And after the collapse of the AFU it soon will see!