Calm Before The Storm
très bien je le lis demain
Thanks for taking time, making the effort with substack. Being in Africa there's next to zero coverage of Ukraine etc. Russia's shaping the battlefield on grounds of war of attrition. They're fully aware they're depleting NATO stocks and have superior weapons of all types. Western Lame stream media are too focused on political propaganda and the Westernised "Great Reset" is becoming unhinged quicker than expected. Like failed sanctions imposed on Russia, the Great Reset's barrelling down the same path, Russia, China, India (BRICS+) know it and is part of the economic "war of attrition".
I saw the simplicius76 tag on Bitchute. Your analysis is well researched and credible. Nice work. More please.
Thank you, Simplicius76; I have been watching your BitChute channel daily since I have discovered it.
I found your BitChute channel a few months ago, I find that these small videos give a lot of information. Now this blog, thank you ! However until now I thought that you were a russian speaker, I am not so sure any more because your article was written in perfect english...
Arnould, near Paris, France
Thank you @Simplcius for being here and providing us with a reliable info source!
Your work is appreciated in these dark misinformed times. Glory to Russia! Hail the mulit-polar world!
Really appreciated the bitchute channel over the last year. If those videos were on bigger platforms this fiasco might not have got so out of hand.
Could do with footnotes.
ToE, OOB and MOS for example.
These blogs of yours convey more information than the videos to be honest.
The videos are important too but I learn more from reading text.
This is really great stuff, a detailed rational that is easy to follow and zero BS. Thank you so much for doing it.
There are all indications of a major Russian operation inside Ukraine and as Lavrov said, to make sure Ukraine is so far away from major cities so it can not bomb any one in Russia...that is an indication how far this ops may go...all the way to Dnieper...we will see soon if that is a reality.
I love how (normies) people think having 100, 000 men means fighting soldiers. You need to feed them, do laundry, bring supplies, fuel the vehicles, change oil, switch out worn barrels. Theres a lot of people that never get near the front that are needed to make the front work.
Then you need to deal with POWs, demining etc etc.
What they achieved with the relatively small numbers last year was remarkable.
Excellent, comprehensive analysis that maybe no one else has done.
Brilliant analysis, thank you. You had me confounded by all the abbreviations (I'm a total layman), so I made the following list. I would welcome any correction:
AFU – Armed Forces Ukraine
SMO - Special Military Operation
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group
ToE - Table of Organization and Equipment
OOB – Order Of Battle
MOSs - Military Occupational Specialties
DPR - Donetsk People's Republic Militia
LPR - Luhansk People's Republic Militia
VDV - Russian Airborne Forces
BAR - Combat Army Reserve (a Russian military reserve force implemented since 2021)
Thank you. It’s nearly impossible to get accurate information on Ukraine. I hardly recognize my country. What used to be evil is good and what was good is evil.
I agree with almost everything. Russia entered Ukraine not with a 3:1 superiority as is normally expected for an attacker but with fewer troops than the AFU and conquered 20% of Ukraine's territory. The 4 fundamental oblasts for a number of reasons that I will not elaborate on. The Kherson beachhead on the western Dnieper, a diversionary maneuver that could either turn towards Odessa or towards Kiev was instrumental in trapping and destroying thousands of AFU troops for months! And this article should also be proof that there will be no offensive. Which in a country the size of Ukraine would require 1 or 2 million troops and a declaration of war which the Kremlin has not yet resorted to! And I no longer expect it to recur with the AFU crumble!
Army that complains that it was invaded but never went to wait for the invader at the border because they were hired by the real invader, NATO in 2014, to wait for the Russian forces in the trenches and bunkers built by NATO engineers. But Russia served him what the world's largest land defense force usually serves - the artillery with which it has already broken several rings of Ukraine's in-depth defense. Almost without the support of the Russian air force (VVS) in the territory of Ukraine, always very tied by the SAMs of Ukraine, new and old, that the VVS never managed to destroy almost always with the radars turned off due to the intel in real time provided by the US. Russia still needs many more drones, swarms, to destroy the air defense systems that came to light for the first time in a theater of operations as fundamental as the Air Force itself. Which has been replaced by more effective missiles for static targets. From here Ukraine will also continue to be able to transport Western aid in mobile convoys to the front lines.
300,000 men are basically to liberate what is left of the 4 oblasts and I admit to extending in some places to the Dnieper due to the reach of western weapons! But they are mainly to defend the front line with more than a thousand kms and to avoid any AFU offensive. And after the collapse of the AFU it soon will see!