Swell of 'WWIII' Red Herrings Aims to Drown Out Mounting Russian Success
An outrageous deluge of exaggerated WWIII propaganda has hit the networks. Every pundit is tearing their hair out at a slew of canard-riddled reports, taken entirely out of context, deliberately misinterpreted, or pumped up in phony headlines for people who don’t read the actual article contents.
Let’s debunk the three major ones in series:
“Zelensky To Be Given Nukes!”
This comes from a desperate NYT article which quotes the following:
This is either some insider troll-job or just outright amateurishness on behalf of the creative writer. How can Biden return Russian nukes to Ukraine? It doesn’t even make sense and is the most absurd of the current panic-inducing psyops.
Anyway, the fatuous dreck above is worded cleverly to try to make it sound like Biden has already discussed or considered this. Nothing of the sort: the “anonymous official” is merely suggesting it on his own behalf, and trying to pass it off as Biden’s idea. This is merely crude amateur fantasy on behalf of the writer or some no name desk jockey to be dismissed as the leaky refuse it is.
But how did it get so amplified? Simple: when it was rehashed in the infamous “telephone game” in other places, the wording was slightly changed to increasingly reflect that it was the administration itself already deep in talks with providing nukes to Ukraine. Case in point, this ZeroHedge version refers to the same article as above but gives it a far more definitive edge:
“US and European officials have discussed…including providing Kiev with nuclear weapons”—and it links to the very NYT article from above. Yet no where in that article is this “discussed”, rather juvenilely proposed by an “anonymous” writer’s self-insert.
French and UK Troops to Ukraine!
This canard is equally specious. It stems from the very provocatively titled Le Monde article:
The problem is, it’s a total nothingburger. The entire hoopla stems from this one tossed-off answer to a question, from the article:
So, some French Foreign Minister is first asked about the possibility of sending troops and he merely suggests from his own opinion that “no red lines should be set”. That’s it. Just another vague suggestion or some nobody’s unasked for insertion.
In fact, later in the article they attempt to curb expectations by then implying that any such troops would be for a peace keeping force after cessation of hostilities. That’s because Biden signaled to dump the conflict on Europe, and Trump seeks to implement a ceasefire along the contact line—so the thought goes that European troops may have to be sent as a kind of KFOR force.
French and British reflections on this issue echo the scant public information that has filtered through about Trump's intentions regarding Ukraine, beyond his declared desire to settle the war "in 24 hours". On November 6, the Wall Street Journal reported the anonymous words of three members of the president-elect's team. They described a plan whereby, after a ceasefire, the front line could be sealed off with a demilitarized zone, with the support of a peacekeeping force.
Again: totally misleading hogwash to build a psyop mountain-out-of-molehill.
Oops:
European Businesses Told to PREPARE FOR [NUCLEAR] WAR!
Sigh. Another heaping of misrepresented nonsense.
This entire fake stems from a single quote from “Admiral” Rob Bauer, head of the ‘NATO Military Committee’. The irrelevant pipsqueak mewled something along these lines to powder on the phony fear-porn:
The head of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, recommended that European businesses prepare and adjust their work with an eye to a possible military conflict with China. A key factor in this conflict will be the role of European businesses in replacing essential services and goods when China ceases to supply them.
China has deposits of 60% of all rare earths and 90% is processed. Also from China, the main suppliers of chemicals for sedatives and anti-inflammatory drugs, antibiotics and medicines for low blood pressure
"We are naive if we think that the Chinese Communist Party will never use this power," concluded Rob Bauer.
You read that right—he was referring to a future conflict with China—and his dribbling nonsense had nothing whatsoever even to do with the Ukrainian war. But see how easy it is to string together a bunch of disparate canards into one barn-burning ‘Nuclear War’ firestorm?
—
There is one somewhat real story along this tack. And that is the NATO Parliamentary Assembly has adopted a resolution which calls to transfer medium range missiles to Ukraine. But this is nothing binding or concrete, merely a kind of performative motion:
NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted a resolution calling for the transfer of medium-range missiles (1000 - 5500 km) to Ukraine.
Earlier, Zelensky asked the United States Tomahawk.
The resolution, of course, does not oblige to anything, but the verbal escalation continues☝️
For the record, it’s not really possible to transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine. These missiles can only be fired from US warships or nuclear subs. Sure, the new Aegis Ashore ground variant MK 41 VLS tubes can fire them, but there are only two such installations on earth, in Deveselu, Romania, and the new one in Poland. It’s doubtful Ukraine would get one, and even if it did it would be one easy to destroy installation.
Tomahawks represent the US’ Empire’s flagship missile system and last line of defense that is doubtful they’d risk by giving to Ukraine. The US has no other extreme long range missile system like that; LRSO is not out yet, JASSM is sub-1000km (and only in JASSM-ER variant anyway), AGM-129 is retired, and AGM-86 only has long ferry range when counting its delivery craft’s range (B-52, etc.).
So again, this is mostly a nothingburger, although the US is likely considering on giving the JASSM in the closer near to medium term future. But it all depends which variant, the non-extended range variant has roughly 300km range—not very impressive. And again—Ukraine appears terrified of flying its jets anywhere near the Russian border which limits the range even more because they’re forced to fire them from around the Dnieper River.
The US may expand the range of weapons transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The topic has been raised again that Washington is "close to a decision to transfer JASSM missiles to Ukraine." It is not yet known which version they plan to transmit - with a range of 360 km or more than 900 km. JASSM is manufactured by Lockheed Martin, which received a new $130 million contract in late summer to increase production of those same missiles. JASSMs are launched from F-16 fighters, which, as is known, are already being used in Ukraine. The conclusion from all this is more than obvious - the destruction of carriers of Western cruise missiles and the destruction of airfield infrastructure - equals the security of Russian cities at an impressive distance from the state border.
But now Ukraine has struck Kursk region with ATACMS for definite. We know this because in a rare move, the Russian MOD openly confirmed it by posting photos of the ATACMS boosters themselves. This comes directly from the MOD:
The most interesting being this one, where an intact Pantsir system is seen lording over the wreckage—the MOD claimed that in one of the strikes, Pantsirs helped shoot down 7/8 of the ATACMS missiles:
But an S-400 system was struck—again, very rare for MOD to have openly confirmed this themselves.
Two interesting aspects of this. Firstly, the system was placed almost exactly in the region I outlined a couple reports ago where I was explaining why Ukraine is able to strike the compound in Maryino, given that the long range AD systems have to be placed at least 30-50km behind the LOC.
So why did the S-400 get hit directly if this time the ATACMS flew right at it? Well, that’s the other very tellingly interesting part:
You see, even Ukrainian sources admit they could only hit the S-400 because it was literally defunct and not in operation, “undergoing maintenance”. This is attested by the fact that the one source even claims that Almaz Antey employees were killed—likely mechanics from the S-400’s manufacturer.
So, is Ukraine creating more “PR” hits with the usual method, carefully picking and choosing low hanging fruit targets which can be used for big media play? They only have a limited amount of missiles so it makes sense that their strategy revolves around “picking off the slow and feeble” to pretend at ‘success’.
Of course, the fact that Ukrainian AD radar operators continue being laid to rest from Russian strikes as a daily occurrence is routinely swept under the rug, as this new one:
Noteworthy was the fact that John Kirby appeared very uncharacteristically shaky when forced to give an answer about the ATACMS’ usage on Russian territory:
White House Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby confirmed on Monday that Ukraine has permission to use American long-range ATACMS missiles to strike the Kursk region and "near it," explaining this by the need for self-defense.
"Right now, they have the ability to use ATACMS for self-defense, in the event of an urgent need. And right now, you know, obviously, this is what is happening in and around Kursk and the Kursk region," he told reporters at a briefing.
I’ve never heard the usually eloquent Kirby sound so lost and mealymouthed when giving an answer—particularly listen to the last bit about the US changing the ‘guidance’ to allow Ukraine to target Russia.
The last thing to mention is that Ukraine continues to waste its precious few ‘strategic’ systems on Kursk, which has no effect on the frontline. There is no real argument to be made for how hitting targets in Kursk region can help Ukraine. Even the airfields around Kursk host mostly frontline tactical craft that only engage areas like the Kursk incursion, which is completely ancillary to the real war in the Donbass.
It proves that Ukraine as per usual has no intention of actually hurting the Russian military, but rather creating an info weapon against the Russian populace to turn society against the leadership.
Some have argued Ukraine is “attriting” air defense systems so that they can then lob longer missiles at strategic enterprises like Russian defense industries. Does hitting non-operational, defunct S-400s contribute to this? It’s all a smokescreen.
As for the frontline, things get worse and worse. A Ukrainian officer actually on the front reports soon Kursk will be swarmed:
Another UA account complains:
The war is terrible, honestly. It has never been as hard as it is now in all this fucking time. People are leaving in packs, and then they just say the standard phrase: missing. But no. They don't even say it anymore. Everyone understands everything anyway. I really want to believe that Zelensky is just being deceived. Otherwise, if he is really aware of the state of affairs at the front, I cannot call it anything other than the extermination of his own people.
👉 Ukrainian Post
Meanwhile Julian Roepcke inadvertently debunks ‘high Russian losses’ during assaults by admitting a mere 10 Russian troops are capturing entire town centers to no resistance:
Major advances have been recorded with Russia now holding nearly half of Kurakhove and capturing most of the open plains to the south and southeast:
But the bigger surprise were the sudden advances around Velyka Novosilka which caught Ukrainians totally off guard.
Not only was Rozdolne captured to the north but Russians made a shock breakthrough to the eastern edges of Velyka Novosilka town itself, embedding themselves and initiating the fight for the town for the first time:
There were many other small gains including further west around Robotino where Ukraine continues to expect a much larger Russian attack in the near future. Azov leader Biletsky explains:
However, there were a couple small setbacks as well. In a rare tactical slip-up, Russian forces were booted out of their new Kupyansk breakthrough after the AFU managed to bring reserves. But they are still right on the outskirts of the town and in a favorable position relative to several weeks ago.
Lastly to update a little on the Oreshnik and Yuzhmash situation.
Russian authorities have now officially stated a “response” will be given for the ATACMS strikes on Kursk, though no word on what that response would be. However, a NOTAMS no-fly-zone was reportedly declared for November 27th to the 30th around Kapustin Yar near Astrakhan where Russian strategic missiles are tested.
Russia closes a section of airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile range in the Astrakhan region until Nov. 30.
According to preliminary information, this is where the Oreshnik missile was fired at Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities in Dnepropetrovsk🚨🇷🇺🚨
As I understand this had already been issued days ago after the Oreshnik was first fired and could be merely routine, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Reuters now reports that investigators have allegedly found the Oreshnik which struck Dnipro was in fact inert and contained no explosive warhead at all, being merely a “warning” to the West:
One of the sources said the missile was carrying dummy warheads and described the damage caused as "quite small".
The second source said: "In this case, (the missile) was without explosives...There were no types of explosions like we expected. There was something, but it was not huge."
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike was a successful test and that it reached its target - a missile and defence enterprise in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Recall that Putin did interestingly call the strike a “successful test”, so it could be true.
There continue to be unverifiable reports like this, however:
Also, Martyanov surfaced another unverified report that goes as follows:
In the morning, the territory of Yuzhmash was already tightly cordoned off, any detailed and significant information was blocked, and no one knew about what was happening at the plant. However, there is nothing secret that would not become clear — information began to arrive from Dnepropetrovsk. We have collected the maximum amount of information available to you, literally from crumbs, from the words of different people.
We are well aware that the degree of reliability of this information is not absolute, but here is the invoice that is "from there" today: the blow fell on the territory between workshops No. 7 and 8, in the area of turning and blacksmithing industries. All ground-level buildings and structures on this territory have been reduced to rubble, in some places-to small concrete rubble. There are no large craters, there are a dozen holes in the ground with a diameter of about two meters. Eyewitnesses describe the scene as creepy, apocalyptic. Security around the perimeter and on the territory withdraws all means of photo and video recording, even pens and notebooks are taken away. People tell us that "officials" who speak English, Polish, and French constantly arrive at the plant's territory in tightly tinted minibuses. They say that unknown ammunition hit just those underground production facilities that Vladimir Zelensky boasted about, telling about the imminent appearance of some "formidable missile weapons"in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the fragmentary conversations of rescuers, it seems that up to the 4th floor there is a zone of continuous destruction, below which rescuers have not yet been able to descend.
This is the information we have today from the scene of the event, the obvious absurdity and hyperbole of "classic witnesses" we tried to weed out, leaving only what we found similar to the truth.
Take both sides’ versions with a grain of salt but it is interesting how the West is suddenly not rushing to produce high quality satellite photos of the attack, contrary to previous M.O. Are they afraid of what we’ll see?
Here’s a rare video uncovered of Russia’s premiere Sarmat MIRVed warheads striking the ground hypersonically for a comparison—an AI dubbed version and then a subtitled one afterwards:
It can be argued that these inert Sarmat MIRVs are going slower—albeit likely hypersonically—than the Oreshnik MaRVs would be. The reason is the MIRVs have no propulsion of their own and are bleeding speed as they pass through the atmosphere. The Oreshnik submunitions on the other hand are suspected to have propulsion systems, as per our previous analysis here. That would allow them to sustain even higher hypersonic speeds up to terminal impact. As such, the craters you see at the end of the video would theoretically be even bigger for the Oreshnik, particularly if it utilizes actual active explosive warheads rather than inert test dummy ones.
But you can clearly see even an inert reentry vehicle created a crater measured as 20 meters in diameter and 8 meters deep, as per the video above. So imagine MaRVs that are even faster and have explosive warheads on top of that.
For comparison, this was said to be an Iskander crater from a strike on Kharkov:
And a Kh-22 crater:
In short, just as some back-of-napkin calculations seemed to have shown last time, even an inert hypersonic reentry vehicle of this relatively small size can create craters roughly comparable to 500kg warheads if not larger.
Also interesting in the Sarmat video is the mention of “amazing accuracy” for what is technically ‘unguided’ MIRV warheads without their own propulsion system. There’s no way to verify this, but if it’s true, then Oreshnik’s accuracy can only be much higher given the likely inclusion of guidance system and propulsion for the warheads and/or submunitions.
As a last note, Russia again struck several Ukrainian power stations, which expectedly flew under the hype radar of Ukraine’s PR strikes on Russian territory.
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦In the early morning of November 26th, Russia carried out a drone attack against the 330kV substation "Ternopilska" in the village of Velyka Berezovytsia, just south of Ternopol. Ten drones were used in the attack, 6 of which found their targets and hit critical elements of the power substation.
According to the local partisans, the damage was considerable:
▪️ Attack results:
• A fire covering an area of more than 200 square meters engulfed the central part of the substation, where key control and distribution elements are located.
• The control center building was seriously damaged, resulting in loss of control over power distribution and disruption of automated control systems.
• Two autotransformers, each with a capacity of 200 MVA, were directly hit, causing them to catch fire and become depressurized. The spill of transformer oil covered an area of over 1,500 square meters , complicating the restoration work.
• The 330 kV open switchgear (OSG) received significant damage: portal supports were destroyed, oil switches and disconnectors were damaged, which led to a complete blackout of the 330 kV line.
• The 110 kV switchgear was also damaged: current transformers , disconnectors and busbar bridges were damaged, which caused interruptions in the power supply to medium voltage consumers.
• The relay protection and automation system (RPA) has failed, which increases the risk of emergency situations when restoring power supply.
🔻 The Ternopilska substation is a key node in the region's energy system , providing electricity transmission between main and retail networks. Its failure led to:
• Large-scale power outages in the Ternopil region and adjacent regions, affecting industrial enterprises, social infrastructure facilities and residential areas.
• Disruption of the stability of the power system , increasing the load on neighboring substations and power lines, which increases the risk of further accidents.
• Difficulty in restoring power supply due to significant damage to equipment and the need to replace it, which requires time and resources.
Drone attacks have grown increasingly common and much larger in scale lately. Russia seems to have ramped up the production of a wide variety of drones, including modernized versions of the old Geran. Just night, Russia launched nearly 200 drones over the skies of Ukraine, even penetrating the air defenses of Kiev with multiple confirmed hits.
As Ukrainian air defenses continue to dwindle and support from the west dries up, these sorts of attacks will become the norm.
It immediately caused “worst ever” power outages according to the city’s mayor:
But where the story takes a tragicomic turn is the UK’s Sunday Times writer explaining how British engineers were meant to construct protective bunkers for Ukraine’s substations, only to result in not a single one being built:
Full article here for those interested:
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I for one would enjoy seeing UK and France being demilitarized in real time. Maybe without jackbooted thugs to oppress them, the long-suffering populace of those two countries can finally put their corrupt politicians in their rightful place - hanging from lampposts.
Appreciate all this study and work. It really adds to the critical thinking path. I found it super helpful.