Welcome back to the paid subscriber mailbag, my periodic token reward to paid members to allow them to ask a question which I’ll dutifully answer in more long-form fashion than the typical comments section reply allows. As usual, the answers can be viewed by all subscribers, so don’t miss out, as there are many interesting discussions and analyses in the mailbags, as my readers often ask very incisive and thought-provoking questions about global geopolitical developments.
As we are now entering in the last chapters of this war (even if it might prolong till 2025), do you think Zelenksy be allowed to escape by either own military, Russians or NATO?
If I was Russia I'd be putting out feelers to Zelenskiiiiyiyiyiyiyyyyy telling him in the event of a coup or surrender we'd provide him with a safe life of luxury should he bring with him all the damning blackmail he has against his western backers. His own military might want to keep him alive for the same reasons. Nafo and the west would want him dead.
Did you read Naftali Bennett's interview ( former PM of Israel gave 5 hr interview)? He told how at the start of SMO, he flew to Moscow and obtained Putin's word of honor that he won't kill Zelensky, and how he called Zelensky on the way to the airport, and only after that Zelensky got out of the bunker he was hiding in and went on TV with "I'm not afraid of anybody." There is a full version somewhere on YouTube - but below is ersatz.
Didn't ever listen or read the interview, but it only makes sense. Not killing other world leaders even in the midst of a war has been part of the conduct of war in the west for the past 1000 years. Putin is a civilised man and it makes sense he would make war in a civilised manner. That Zelenskyiiiyyyyyiyyy even needed the reassurance goes to show you what a political babe in the woods he, and the rest of the Kiev junta, are.
The most interesting aspect of the above is that Putin's word of honor was enough for Zelensky to feel safe, while proceeding painting Putin as a killer, "baby-eater," whatever.
Yes. The divergence in the behaviour of western vs. "eastern" or "global south" leaders is quite jarring at this point. One side behaves like rational actors the other behaves like the world is just one big frat-house escapade.
The CIA will take him out and blame it on Russia. Most Ukrainians will be joyed when Zelensky is killed but I’m sure he has a few die heart followers. Anything to hurt Russia because it seems they don’t want to follow WEF orders
It seems things in Ukraine are building towards a coup - or an electoral replacement of Zelenskiyyiyiyiyi, same diff - that everyone assumes will result in a "peace" government that is ready to talk surrender to the Russians. In the February 1917 revolution in Russia the Provisional Government that replaced the Tsar doubled down on the maximalist goals of the previous government. The October revolution that replaced the PG with the Bolsheviks had, if anything, the most maximalist war goals of all: world conquest via revolutionary war. What do you think is the likelihood the government that results of a coup in Ukraine that ousts Zelenskiiyiyiyiyiyiyiyiy being as or more maximalist that it replaces?
Could you please reconcile the Atlanticist powers desire for perpetual war and yet their deliberate ruination of the military forces under their command. Eventually, they will run out of proxies to fight their wars and their militaries will end up in a toe-to-toe shooting match with a 1st world power. How do the powers-that-be justify the paper tiger armed forces that the West now fields?
I have been following the situation in Ukraine since 2014, but not too closely. I have been following very closely since the end of February 2022. Because of the latter, I think I know the general trends related to the development of SMO since it started. However, what I missed was the year before SMO, i.e., since let' say early 2021. Why did Russia start moving its forces towards Ukraine almost a year before SMO (or was it less?), was it affected by the Biden admin, or was it a natural development logically following from slow and steady arming of Ukraine (e.g., Lindsey Graham visits when he was talking to various Ukrainian military people)? Would you give a time line of the build up, focusing perhaps on reasons why the year of 2021 was so special? For example, what did Biden do what Trump did not? Or was it more some internal logic within Russia and/or Donbass (or Ukraine) that led to it? Or was it just sleepwalking, and both sides slowly escalating, that finally resulted in the whole thing switching to the hot phase, and the Biden admin just got "lucky"?
I’m just going by memory, so the dates might be off, but as I recall, there was a massive buildup of Ukrainian military on the borders of the Donbass in the spring of 2021. They were clearly preparing their invasion. Suddenly in the summer of 2021, Russia decided to demonstrate troop deployment capabilities, and exercises on their border of the Donbass, and amassed huge forces extremely quickly, which I’m sure was highly unexpected, and caused Ukraine to stutter. There was a standoff for a few months into the fall, then Russia sent their troops back to their barracks to recoup and rest, while Ukraine kept theirs out in the muddy trenches. Then, in January, Ukraine started heavily shelling the Donbass again, obviously preparing to pick up their invasion where they left off. Rather than let them inject troops into the Donbass and have the current war start on Donbass territory, Putin pulled the trigger. That’s the way I remember it anyway.
Still, a good answer as far as it went. As I recall (again without going back to old records, so dates might be wrong), the pattern you describe was a repeat of what happened in 2020, but on that occasion the arrival of Russian troops near the border persuaded Zelensky to withdraw his putative invasion force from the contact line, so the Russians also ran down their troop concentration and the situation calmed down for many months.
But as you say, Simplicius will reliably give all the details, with references!
Nov 25, 2023·edited Nov 25, 2023Liked by Simplicius
It seems tracked that Russia will "win" if they keep proceeding as they are doing... I can't think of any tricks the west can do other then false-flagging a situation to join the war on Ukraines side.
My question. If Russia does "win", as in taking a very favorable deal against Ukraine, or taking all of Ukraine. How would that really affect the western perception and psychology?
The western propaganda machines from high to low, always seem to have an "all in that our side is right absolutely" mentality, and a loss of this magnitude could really cause a lot of terminal damage of which I'm unsure to what extent. I'm sure in the least it would kick America and Europe off the podium they put themselves on, and would probably cause political fracturing as the current world order's wounds are being exposed.
What are the most reliable sources of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. So often I feel I am asked to accept the claims of old hands whom I'm generally inclined to trust but who are obviously not going to jeopardize access to their sources.
On December 15, 2021, the Russian Federation delivered a draft treaty to the USA and a draft agreement to NATO concerning the "security guarantees" the Federation deems of sufficient importance to require treaties.
Presuming the contents of these documents is of sufficient import that the issues constitute an existential threat to the Russian Federation…
And, in light of the Russian Federation's present build-up of its armed forces to 1.5 million members—a force level significantly greater than necessary to complete operations in the Ukraine theater…
How do you envision the Russian Federation's pursuit of the "security guarantees" enumerated in the two documents referenced above.
Is reconstituting the multi-ethnic Soviet Union in a new form an actual goal of the Russian state? It appears Russia would be stronger if the 'stans and some of the Caucasus nations were once again a part of the country. I always thought letting the old SSRs spawn off into new nations was a geopolitical error, an unforeseen consequence of Soviet policy.
Do you have any insights or information on who is behind the persistent jet trails (a.k.a. chemtrails) and whether or not we can expect that to stop anytime soon?
Simp feel free to shorten this and it won’t bother me in the least if you don’t answer it at all. It’s a very open ended set of questions. This is a comment from “New Raft.”
More damning proof to support our theory. I think most of us share the idea that NATO/US thought this was going to be a slam dunk (Russia downfall). I have zero doubt that their arrogance led us here. Once Russia was a carcass being picked apart by scavengers the message would be loud and clear to China. Bend the knee or we will turn you into that.
So now what? I assume they had multiple scenarios and after studying these clowns for a several years I am dubious that they even bothered to war game a stronger more unified Russia. Not only within Russia, but stronger with her allies as well. Well here we are.
At the same time certain paradigms are crashing in the US. It’s no longer racist to ask how in hell did we get all these dual citizens into high levels of government leadership positions. Ideally the next candidate I truly support will NOT be afraid to ask this question. That person still has not stepped forward.
It’s pretty clear to me the significantly weaker version of Russia, China, Iran, etc was part of the global/2030 agenda. It would be ideal for when the time came for the bankers to reset the economy. However that doesn’t work so well when you have alternative systems.
The 2030 GA is moving full speed ahead on the domestic front as the US and Europe import migrants at breakneck speed. What’s going to happen if this service economy breaks down for real? I’ll tell you what, all hell is going to break loose, that’s what.
Simplicius, would love to hear you pontificate on this matter and where you think we might be heading based on the latest developments. Gonna like this comment so I can perhaps repost it in your mailbag Q&A.
I will try not to act too naïve with this question but here goes anyway. One part of the news media and the blogosphere is pointing out that teenagers, women, and the elderly are being shipped to the Russian Front with very little training and equipment and they are being massacred. There are videos that show individual solders being slaughtered by drones. (None of them teenagers or women.) This kind of video is just an opportunity to gloat, and counter Western MSM assertions.
I don't doubt that this is happening, so my question is along the lines of, "Why is Russia still having a hard time?" Or are they? The coke and chemical plant is an example. The battle for that town (begins with "A") seemed to go on forever. Other places are being ruined and do not seem to be of any immediate use to either side once a victory is declared. The process of holding a dynamic equilibrium is still costing both sides immensely. Is this the Russian plan? To drain every last drop of blood?
I don't think Russia really wants an end to this. They want to see the blood flow. I don't think Putin should agree to a cease fire. There will always be a strip of land, call it Ukraigaza, that will need to be policed between Russia and whatever bounds eastern Europe. Hell, if you are winning then keep punching till your opponent is out cold. All but two of the NATO (EU?) countries are still have wet dreams about plundering Russia's wealth. They will not stop dreaming. So when do we know that it is really over? Do we have to wait for the whole of Europe to be freezing to death in a recession?
This is not going to end until Zelensky's blood is draining and redeeming his fellow citizens. Whatever is left of them.
Economic bankruptcy + ammunition bankruptcy + inferior &/or old weapon tech & military quality + limited proxy options = nuclear war. True or false. Likely or unlikely, Simplicious? (Equation refers to the West obviously). P.s. what is the banner picture you use? It is beautiful.
I have long wondered how involved Western money and the Pentagon were behind the construction of the massive fortifications that were built from 2014 to 2022 in the Donbass. They rank with the most formidable defences anywhere, in strength and length. Their construction must have been hugely expensive and required extensive planning and supervision, something the tottering economy of Ukraine with its feeble military of 2014 could hardly have done by itself. Was this wall as much the West's work as I think it is?
What practical steps can dissident Americans take to free ourselves from the Global American Empire and to lay the groundwork for a sane society? I almost said “return to a sane society,” but I’m increasingly convinced that the American project was always doomed to failure.
Don't die, don't get conscripted,protect yourself financially. Make sure that if there is any political unrest or economic collapse, that you have a community you can rely on. The most dangerous time will be before the Empire falls, and chauvinist tendencies to maintain the Empire at any cost will reach fever pitch. Then will come opportunists and power hungry demagogues. After all that, then, you can have sanity again. The point is to survive all that first.
Belarus is another good option; it's also much easier for Brits to move to. Russia is very difficult to move to if you are British and can't get a three year tourist visa like Americans can.
I’m ready. I spent 3 years in Usinsk and three years in Talinka ( Siberia). Loved it. When my boys are out of school it’s a big possibility to move there. One of the last Christian nations. And no LBGTQXXXX Bullshit.
Did you buy land? I want land and a house and car and big dog :).
May I introduce a corollary to your question? For Simplicius.
1. There has been claims there never was a Palestinian People, nor a "country" "state" of Palestine. I've heard much discussion. Wherein is the historical truth?
2. Other than Israel's support from the U.S. War Machine, has any other country the size of Israel survived long term, nestled inside the geography of hostile neighbors?
1. The Palestinians are shorthand for the native Islamic Semitic people living in Palestine. They existed before the advent of Islam in the 7th century. The term is relatively modern, but they would have called themselves "Arab" before that. They made up 90% of the population of Palestine pre-occupation, and goodly percentages in all phases in the last 2000 years. It is true that "Palestine" as a state never existed. It was part of the Roman Empire and later Byzantine Empire, and part of the Islamic Caliphate and successor states. Then it was part of the Kingdom of Jerusalem, before falling back to Islamic successor states of the Caliphate until its acquisition by the Ottomans. It was mandated to Great Britain after WWI after the dissolution of that empire. The bottom line is that it was part of the Muslim world for about 1100 of the last 1300 years and remained majority Islamic until the conquest and expulsion of Muslims by Zionists starting in the 1940s.
2. Your best analogy is the Crusader states of Outremer. They survived from 1099 to roughly 1303 before being eradicated. They only survived that long due to repeated re-invasions by crusades setting out from Europe, analogous to the interventions by the West on several occasions on Israel's behalf.
As we are now entering in the last chapters of this war (even if it might prolong till 2025), do you think Zelenksy be allowed to escape by either own military, Russians or NATO?
If I was Russia I'd be putting out feelers to Zelenskiiiiyiyiyiyiyyyyy telling him in the event of a coup or surrender we'd provide him with a safe life of luxury should he bring with him all the damning blackmail he has against his western backers. His own military might want to keep him alive for the same reasons. Nafo and the west would want him dead.
Safe life in luxury. Oops his plane crashed lol
I think Ukrainians will take care of him, either at home or abroad, when they realize how they were deceived/betrayed/sold.
Did you read Naftali Bennett's interview ( former PM of Israel gave 5 hr interview)? He told how at the start of SMO, he flew to Moscow and obtained Putin's word of honor that he won't kill Zelensky, and how he called Zelensky on the way to the airport, and only after that Zelensky got out of the bunker he was hiding in and went on TV with "I'm not afraid of anybody." There is a full version somewhere on YouTube - but below is ersatz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aYC9M4_-i0
Didn't ever listen or read the interview, but it only makes sense. Not killing other world leaders even in the midst of a war has been part of the conduct of war in the west for the past 1000 years. Putin is a civilised man and it makes sense he would make war in a civilised manner. That Zelenskyiiiyyyyyiyyy even needed the reassurance goes to show you what a political babe in the woods he, and the rest of the Kiev junta, are.
The most interesting aspect of the above is that Putin's word of honor was enough for Zelensky to feel safe, while proceeding painting Putin as a killer, "baby-eater," whatever.
Yes. The divergence in the behaviour of western vs. "eastern" or "global south" leaders is quite jarring at this point. One side behaves like rational actors the other behaves like the world is just one big frat-house escapade.
The CIA will take him out and blame it on Russia. Most Ukrainians will be joyed when Zelensky is killed but I’m sure he has a few die heart followers. Anything to hurt Russia because it seems they don’t want to follow WEF orders
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/russia-flaunts-trophies-moscow-annual-army-expo
It seems things in Ukraine are building towards a coup - or an electoral replacement of Zelenskiyyiyiyiyi, same diff - that everyone assumes will result in a "peace" government that is ready to talk surrender to the Russians. In the February 1917 revolution in Russia the Provisional Government that replaced the Tsar doubled down on the maximalist goals of the previous government. The October revolution that replaced the PG with the Bolsheviks had, if anything, the most maximalist war goals of all: world conquest via revolutionary war. What do you think is the likelihood the government that results of a coup in Ukraine that ousts Zelenskiiyiyiyiyiyiyiyiy being as or more maximalist that it replaces?
Could you please reconcile the Atlanticist powers desire for perpetual war and yet their deliberate ruination of the military forces under their command. Eventually, they will run out of proxies to fight their wars and their militaries will end up in a toe-to-toe shooting match with a 1st world power. How do the powers-that-be justify the paper tiger armed forces that the West now fields?
Read Fukuyama's "The End of History". Bible to these people, and they keep pushing things further and further to fulfill it. Best I can tell you.
Demonstrates how an idiot philosophy can be dangerous.
I have been following the situation in Ukraine since 2014, but not too closely. I have been following very closely since the end of February 2022. Because of the latter, I think I know the general trends related to the development of SMO since it started. However, what I missed was the year before SMO, i.e., since let' say early 2021. Why did Russia start moving its forces towards Ukraine almost a year before SMO (or was it less?), was it affected by the Biden admin, or was it a natural development logically following from slow and steady arming of Ukraine (e.g., Lindsey Graham visits when he was talking to various Ukrainian military people)? Would you give a time line of the build up, focusing perhaps on reasons why the year of 2021 was so special? For example, what did Biden do what Trump did not? Or was it more some internal logic within Russia and/or Donbass (or Ukraine) that led to it? Or was it just sleepwalking, and both sides slowly escalating, that finally resulted in the whole thing switching to the hot phase, and the Biden admin just got "lucky"?
I’m just going by memory, so the dates might be off, but as I recall, there was a massive buildup of Ukrainian military on the borders of the Donbass in the spring of 2021. They were clearly preparing their invasion. Suddenly in the summer of 2021, Russia decided to demonstrate troop deployment capabilities, and exercises on their border of the Donbass, and amassed huge forces extremely quickly, which I’m sure was highly unexpected, and caused Ukraine to stutter. There was a standoff for a few months into the fall, then Russia sent their troops back to their barracks to recoup and rest, while Ukraine kept theirs out in the muddy trenches. Then, in January, Ukraine started heavily shelling the Donbass again, obviously preparing to pick up their invasion where they left off. Rather than let them inject troops into the Donbass and have the current war start on Donbass territory, Putin pulled the trigger. That’s the way I remember it anyway.
Oops, sorry, I suppose that was a question for our host. My brief answer just slipped out, I’m sure Simp will have a more thorough answer.
Still, a good answer as far as it went. As I recall (again without going back to old records, so dates might be wrong), the pattern you describe was a repeat of what happened in 2020, but on that occasion the arrival of Russian troops near the border persuaded Zelensky to withdraw his putative invasion force from the contact line, so the Russians also ran down their troop concentration and the situation calmed down for many months.
But as you say, Simplicius will reliably give all the details, with references!
It seems tracked that Russia will "win" if they keep proceeding as they are doing... I can't think of any tricks the west can do other then false-flagging a situation to join the war on Ukraines side.
My question. If Russia does "win", as in taking a very favorable deal against Ukraine, or taking all of Ukraine. How would that really affect the western perception and psychology?
The western propaganda machines from high to low, always seem to have an "all in that our side is right absolutely" mentality, and a loss of this magnitude could really cause a lot of terminal damage of which I'm unsure to what extent. I'm sure in the least it would kick America and Europe off the podium they put themselves on, and would probably cause political fracturing as the current world order's wounds are being exposed.
Thank you.
What are the most reliable sources of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. So often I feel I am asked to accept the claims of old hands whom I'm generally inclined to trust but who are obviously not going to jeopardize access to their sources.
On December 15, 2021, the Russian Federation delivered a draft treaty to the USA and a draft agreement to NATO concerning the "security guarantees" the Federation deems of sufficient importance to require treaties.
Presuming the contents of these documents is of sufficient import that the issues constitute an existential threat to the Russian Federation…
And, in light of the Russian Federation's present build-up of its armed forces to 1.5 million members—a force level significantly greater than necessary to complete operations in the Ukraine theater…
How do you envision the Russian Federation's pursuit of the "security guarantees" enumerated in the two documents referenced above.
- Harry
Is reconstituting the multi-ethnic Soviet Union in a new form an actual goal of the Russian state? It appears Russia would be stronger if the 'stans and some of the Caucasus nations were once again a part of the country. I always thought letting the old SSRs spawn off into new nations was a geopolitical error, an unforeseen consequence of Soviet policy.
Do you have any insights or information on who is behind the persistent jet trails (a.k.a. chemtrails) and whether or not we can expect that to stop anytime soon?
Simp feel free to shorten this and it won’t bother me in the least if you don’t answer it at all. It’s a very open ended set of questions. This is a comment from “New Raft.”
More damning proof to support our theory. I think most of us share the idea that NATO/US thought this was going to be a slam dunk (Russia downfall). I have zero doubt that their arrogance led us here. Once Russia was a carcass being picked apart by scavengers the message would be loud and clear to China. Bend the knee or we will turn you into that.
So now what? I assume they had multiple scenarios and after studying these clowns for a several years I am dubious that they even bothered to war game a stronger more unified Russia. Not only within Russia, but stronger with her allies as well. Well here we are.
At the same time certain paradigms are crashing in the US. It’s no longer racist to ask how in hell did we get all these dual citizens into high levels of government leadership positions. Ideally the next candidate I truly support will NOT be afraid to ask this question. That person still has not stepped forward.
It’s pretty clear to me the significantly weaker version of Russia, China, Iran, etc was part of the global/2030 agenda. It would be ideal for when the time came for the bankers to reset the economy. However that doesn’t work so well when you have alternative systems.
The 2030 GA is moving full speed ahead on the domestic front as the US and Europe import migrants at breakneck speed. What’s going to happen if this service economy breaks down for real? I’ll tell you what, all hell is going to break loose, that’s what.
Simplicius, would love to hear you pontificate on this matter and where you think we might be heading based on the latest developments. Gonna like this comment so I can perhaps repost it in your mailbag Q&A.
I will try not to act too naïve with this question but here goes anyway. One part of the news media and the blogosphere is pointing out that teenagers, women, and the elderly are being shipped to the Russian Front with very little training and equipment and they are being massacred. There are videos that show individual solders being slaughtered by drones. (None of them teenagers or women.) This kind of video is just an opportunity to gloat, and counter Western MSM assertions.
I don't doubt that this is happening, so my question is along the lines of, "Why is Russia still having a hard time?" Or are they? The coke and chemical plant is an example. The battle for that town (begins with "A") seemed to go on forever. Other places are being ruined and do not seem to be of any immediate use to either side once a victory is declared. The process of holding a dynamic equilibrium is still costing both sides immensely. Is this the Russian plan? To drain every last drop of blood?
I don't think Russia really wants an end to this. They want to see the blood flow. I don't think Putin should agree to a cease fire. There will always be a strip of land, call it Ukraigaza, that will need to be policed between Russia and whatever bounds eastern Europe. Hell, if you are winning then keep punching till your opponent is out cold. All but two of the NATO (EU?) countries are still have wet dreams about plundering Russia's wealth. They will not stop dreaming. So when do we know that it is really over? Do we have to wait for the whole of Europe to be freezing to death in a recession?
This is not going to end until Zelensky's blood is draining and redeeming his fellow citizens. Whatever is left of them.
Economic bankruptcy + ammunition bankruptcy + inferior &/or old weapon tech & military quality + limited proxy options = nuclear war. True or false. Likely or unlikely, Simplicious? (Equation refers to the West obviously). P.s. what is the banner picture you use? It is beautiful.
I have long wondered how involved Western money and the Pentagon were behind the construction of the massive fortifications that were built from 2014 to 2022 in the Donbass. They rank with the most formidable defences anywhere, in strength and length. Their construction must have been hugely expensive and required extensive planning and supervision, something the tottering economy of Ukraine with its feeble military of 2014 could hardly have done by itself. Was this wall as much the West's work as I think it is?
What practical steps can dissident Americans take to free ourselves from the Global American Empire and to lay the groundwork for a sane society? I almost said “return to a sane society,” but I’m increasingly convinced that the American project was always doomed to failure.
Don't die, don't get conscripted,protect yourself financially. Make sure that if there is any political unrest or economic collapse, that you have a community you can rely on. The most dangerous time will be before the Empire falls, and chauvinist tendencies to maintain the Empire at any cost will reach fever pitch. Then will come opportunists and power hungry demagogues. After all that, then, you can have sanity again. The point is to survive all that first.
Move to russia. I left already from Canada a long time ago. Best choice I've made.
Belarus is another good option; it's also much easier for Brits to move to. Russia is very difficult to move to if you are British and can't get a three year tourist visa like Americans can.
I’m ready. I spent 3 years in Usinsk and three years in Talinka ( Siberia). Loved it. When my boys are out of school it’s a big possibility to move there. One of the last Christian nations. And no LBGTQXXXX Bullshit.
Did you buy land? I want land and a house and car and big dog :).
How do you see the Israel/resistance block battle developing given Israel is under extreme economic pressure?
Ilyas:
May I introduce a corollary to your question? For Simplicius.
1. There has been claims there never was a Palestinian People, nor a "country" "state" of Palestine. I've heard much discussion. Wherein is the historical truth?
2. Other than Israel's support from the U.S. War Machine, has any other country the size of Israel survived long term, nestled inside the geography of hostile neighbors?
1. The Palestinians are shorthand for the native Islamic Semitic people living in Palestine. They existed before the advent of Islam in the 7th century. The term is relatively modern, but they would have called themselves "Arab" before that. They made up 90% of the population of Palestine pre-occupation, and goodly percentages in all phases in the last 2000 years. It is true that "Palestine" as a state never existed. It was part of the Roman Empire and later Byzantine Empire, and part of the Islamic Caliphate and successor states. Then it was part of the Kingdom of Jerusalem, before falling back to Islamic successor states of the Caliphate until its acquisition by the Ottomans. It was mandated to Great Britain after WWI after the dissolution of that empire. The bottom line is that it was part of the Muslim world for about 1100 of the last 1300 years and remained majority Islamic until the conquest and expulsion of Muslims by Zionists starting in the 1940s.
2. Your best analogy is the Crusader states of Outremer. They survived from 1099 to roughly 1303 before being eradicated. They only survived that long due to repeated re-invasions by crusades setting out from Europe, analogous to the interventions by the West on several occasions on Israel's behalf.
Are POW/surrenders the thing to watch for to see if the Ukrainian position is about to give way?
How are they best tracked/ measured?