Welcome back to the paid subscriber mailbag, my periodic token reward to paid members to allow them to ask a question which I’ll dutifully answer in more long-form fashion than the typical comments section reply allows. As usual, the answers can be viewed by all subscribers, so don’t miss out, as there are many interesting discussions and analyses in the mailbags, as my readers often ask very incisive and thought-provoking questions about global geopolitical developments.
As we are now entering in the last chapters of this war (even if it might prolong till 2025), do you think Zelenksy be allowed to escape by either own military, Russians or NATO?
It seems things in Ukraine are building towards a coup - or an electoral replacement of Zelenskiyyiyiyiyi, same diff - that everyone assumes will result in a "peace" government that is ready to talk surrender to the Russians. In the February 1917 revolution in Russia the Provisional Government that replaced the Tsar doubled down on the maximalist goals of the previous government. The October revolution that replaced the PG with the Bolsheviks had, if anything, the most maximalist war goals of all: world conquest via revolutionary war. What do you think is the likelihood the government that results of a coup in Ukraine that ousts Zelenskiiyiyiyiyiyiyiyiy being as or more maximalist that it replaces?
Could you please reconcile the Atlanticist powers desire for perpetual war and yet their deliberate ruination of the military forces under their command. Eventually, they will run out of proxies to fight their wars and their militaries will end up in a toe-to-toe shooting match with a 1st world power. How do the powers-that-be justify the paper tiger armed forces that the West now fields?
I have been following the situation in Ukraine since 2014, but not too closely. I have been following very closely since the end of February 2022. Because of the latter, I think I know the general trends related to the development of SMO since it started. However, what I missed was the year before SMO, i.e., since let' say early 2021. Why did Russia start moving its forces towards Ukraine almost a year before SMO (or was it less?), was it affected by the Biden admin, or was it a natural development logically following from slow and steady arming of Ukraine (e.g., Lindsey Graham visits when he was talking to various Ukrainian military people)? Would you give a time line of the build up, focusing perhaps on reasons why the year of 2021 was so special? For example, what did Biden do what Trump did not? Or was it more some internal logic within Russia and/or Donbass (or Ukraine) that led to it? Or was it just sleepwalking, and both sides slowly escalating, that finally resulted in the whole thing switching to the hot phase, and the Biden admin just got "lucky"?
It seems tracked that Russia will "win" if they keep proceeding as they are doing... I can't think of any tricks the west can do other then false-flagging a situation to join the war on Ukraines side.
My question. If Russia does "win", as in taking a very favorable deal against Ukraine, or taking all of Ukraine. How would that really affect the western perception and psychology?
The western propaganda machines from high to low, always seem to have an "all in that our side is right absolutely" mentality, and a loss of this magnitude could really cause a lot of terminal damage of which I'm unsure to what extent. I'm sure in the least it would kick America and Europe off the podium they put themselves on, and would probably cause political fracturing as the current world order's wounds are being exposed.
What are the most reliable sources of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. So often I feel I am asked to accept the claims of old hands whom I'm generally inclined to trust but who are obviously not going to jeopardize access to their sources.
On December 15, 2021, the Russian Federation delivered a draft treaty to the USA and a draft agreement to NATO concerning the "security guarantees" the Federation deems of sufficient importance to require treaties.
Presuming the contents of these documents is of sufficient import that the issues constitute an existential threat to the Russian Federation…
And, in light of the Russian Federation's present build-up of its armed forces to 1.5 million members—a force level significantly greater than necessary to complete operations in the Ukraine theater…
How do you envision the Russian Federation's pursuit of the "security guarantees" enumerated in the two documents referenced above.
Is reconstituting the multi-ethnic Soviet Union in a new form an actual goal of the Russian state? It appears Russia would be stronger if the 'stans and some of the Caucasus nations were once again a part of the country. I always thought letting the old SSRs spawn off into new nations was a geopolitical error, an unforeseen consequence of Soviet policy.
Do you have any insights or information on who is behind the persistent jet trails (a.k.a. chemtrails) and whether or not we can expect that to stop anytime soon?
Simp feel free to shorten this and it won’t bother me in the least if you don’t answer it at all. It’s a very open ended set of questions. This is a comment from “New Raft.”
More damning proof to support our theory. I think most of us share the idea that NATO/US thought this was going to be a slam dunk (Russia downfall). I have zero doubt that their arrogance led us here. Once Russia was a carcass being picked apart by scavengers the message would be loud and clear to China. Bend the knee or we will turn you into that.
So now what? I assume they had multiple scenarios and after studying these clowns for a several years I am dubious that they even bothered to war game a stronger more unified Russia. Not only within Russia, but stronger with her allies as well. Well here we are.
At the same time certain paradigms are crashing in the US. It’s no longer racist to ask how in hell did we get all these dual citizens into high levels of government leadership positions. Ideally the next candidate I truly support will NOT be afraid to ask this question. That person still has not stepped forward.
It’s pretty clear to me the significantly weaker version of Russia, China, Iran, etc was part of the global/2030 agenda. It would be ideal for when the time came for the bankers to reset the economy. However that doesn’t work so well when you have alternative systems.
The 2030 GA is moving full speed ahead on the domestic front as the US and Europe import migrants at breakneck speed. What’s going to happen if this service economy breaks down for real? I’ll tell you what, all hell is going to break loose, that’s what.
Simplicius, would love to hear you pontificate on this matter and where you think we might be heading based on the latest developments. Gonna like this comment so I can perhaps repost it in your mailbag Q&A.
I will try not to act too naïve with this question but here goes anyway. One part of the news media and the blogosphere is pointing out that teenagers, women, and the elderly are being shipped to the Russian Front with very little training and equipment and they are being massacred. There are videos that show individual solders being slaughtered by drones. (None of them teenagers or women.) This kind of video is just an opportunity to gloat, and counter Western MSM assertions.
I don't doubt that this is happening, so my question is along the lines of, "Why is Russia still having a hard time?" Or are they? The coke and chemical plant is an example. The battle for that town (begins with "A") seemed to go on forever. Other places are being ruined and do not seem to be of any immediate use to either side once a victory is declared. The process of holding a dynamic equilibrium is still costing both sides immensely. Is this the Russian plan? To drain every last drop of blood?
I don't think Russia really wants an end to this. They want to see the blood flow. I don't think Putin should agree to a cease fire. There will always be a strip of land, call it Ukraigaza, that will need to be policed between Russia and whatever bounds eastern Europe. Hell, if you are winning then keep punching till your opponent is out cold. All but two of the NATO (EU?) countries are still have wet dreams about plundering Russia's wealth. They will not stop dreaming. So when do we know that it is really over? Do we have to wait for the whole of Europe to be freezing to death in a recession?
This is not going to end until Zelensky's blood is draining and redeeming his fellow citizens. Whatever is left of them.
Economic bankruptcy + ammunition bankruptcy + inferior &/or old weapon tech & military quality + limited proxy options = nuclear war. True or false. Likely or unlikely, Simplicious? (Equation refers to the West obviously). P.s. what is the banner picture you use? It is beautiful.
I have long wondered how involved Western money and the Pentagon were behind the construction of the massive fortifications that were built from 2014 to 2022 in the Donbass. They rank with the most formidable defences anywhere, in strength and length. Their construction must have been hugely expensive and required extensive planning and supervision, something the tottering economy of Ukraine with its feeble military of 2014 could hardly have done by itself. Was this wall as much the West's work as I think it is?
What practical steps can dissident Americans take to free ourselves from the Global American Empire and to lay the groundwork for a sane society? I almost said “return to a sane society,” but I’m increasingly convinced that the American project was always doomed to failure.
How do you see the Israel/resistance block battle developing given Israel is under extreme economic pressure?
Are POW/surrenders the thing to watch for to see if the Ukrainian position is about to give way?
How are they best tracked/ measured?