Welcome back all, part 1 of the mailbag answers is ready. It’s long enough on its own, so let’s dispense with the pleasantries and get right to it. Note: these are not in order of posting, so if you don’t see your question, it will be answered in the upcoming Parts later this week.
Go to Russia or Serbia bro... I am a Canadian living in Russia right now. There is a HUGE culture shock, but one of immense positivity in terms of traditional culture and society...I feel at HOME here and the poisonous roots of the west don't exist, or at least extremely small.
Yep. And Russia, mind you, is not perfect. Got lots of problems. Main one for me would be the covid/injection thing. But they know they got problems. And they work at things.
The difference is hard to define. I think it is in the basis of the whole country. The USA is overtly and intrinsically and ostensibly and in every way totally devoted to dollar profit and dollars and bullcrap are the measure of the man and of greatness.
Make a million from any scam at all, get big in Hollywood - bam: you're a role model, a guru, a deity.
Russia apparently has powerful oligarchs screwing things up, youngsters and middle classes devoted to instant fame and dollars, too.\
Corruption left over from USSR.
All kinds of stuff.
But it has as a nominal overt and even intrinsic base the idea of value and greatness being something to do with the heart and goodness of a man and his society.
You know they lost 20 million dead back in WWII. Most of the west is totally unconscious of the fact. Isn't that true? Totally unconscious. Absolutely unaware.
Know nothing of it. Means nothing to them. At all. Superman and Spiderman mean more. Star Wars and 'Desert Storm', 'killing ragheads' and so on.
That's the reality of the American, the average westerner.
For Russians and the Russian state is the memory of 20 million dead.
See?
There's a difference.
One lives in threadbare dreamland. Always in denial.
The other lives in a tangible reality. Warts and all.
Corvallis is better than Eugene and Portland. But I hear you. West Oregon sucks. The state doesn't follow it's own Constitution let alone the US Constitution.
We’re well west of Denver in the Rockies on a very secluded homestead. It might as well be a different country demographically and politically. Very low population density but tight nit mountain community of people that can build, fix, create, garden, raise livestock, fish, hunt and are heavily armed on average. It’s like the opposite of a city. A paradise of sorts. It’s also geographically beneficial as far as controlling access via terrain and natural choke points.
I forsee fortified and guarded communities popping up in rural places throughout America organically if the S really HTF. Especially in a scenario where mobility is heavily limited due to a collapse of infrastructure, lack of fuel and very dangerous traveling conditions.
It will be a resurgence of the 18-19th century village and will become the backbone of those that create and rebuild new territories in the country formally known as the United States.
Or they figure out how to perpetually kick the can down the road and nothing major happens.
My opinion is its understandable how you feel and why you feel it and the actions you propose but it's all wrong.
The future is not a return to the past and isolated 'forts' in hostile territory.
The future is what is represented here in these columns.
The coming together of the people of the world (and USA) in 'cyberspace', in the computer.
Where we can meet each other and talk with each other.
Where we can have access to ALL the knowledge and data of the world: ALL of it - i.e. how much money Bill Gates (for instance) has and where it is and where the records are and how easy it would be to change those records and divest him (or anyone else) of it all.
See?
Where we can invent and put up apps that will enable us to do flash referendi on any subject at all and find out what really is the will of the people.
Where we could have apps that are 'perpetual' referendi that keep track of how we are all voting minute by minute. So that elections become unnecessary.
Where we have apps that constantly monitor everything our elected reps do, every word they say in assembly, every vote they cast.
Apps that put to them our requirements of them: tell them what to do.
Apps that put before us the rock solid facts of matters, the real data from proven sources, checked and re-checked.
And so on.
Where WE stop stupidly marching up and down in the streets 'demanding' the 'govt do something' (else we'll burn some of our own cars, set to hitting and hurting each other, destroy our own property) and instead DO the things that need doing ourselves via the web.
WE today have the power. Via the web and our constant instant access to it via our smartphones.
Sort of like that.
And you know what that would be? It would be democracy. For the first time in history, ever. Government of the people by the people for the people. All the people. They didn't have that even in ancient Greece you know.
Well, that's what we need now. Not everyone running away to hide in their own log cabin and play hollywood cowboy heroes.
I used to balk at the thought of that. I didn't care much for ceding ground to shitheads but now reality has set in. The most important thing is to fortify areas. Simp's piece about "Civil War (quest 10)" is something else. Great illustration of critical thought. There's one black pill staring us all in the face however. At the state level it seems all is lost. I don't trust ANY republican governor anymore.
As long as this media continues unabated we are going to be swimming upstream. I am encouraged after seeing them scramble in mid October. They weren't ready for that and some of their henchmen got off the reservation.
CAN I JUST SAY......for GOD's sake if that EVER HAPPENS AGAIN WISE UP. HELP YOUR ENEMIES if indeed they ATTACK YOUR MOST DANGEROUS ONE. Watching conservatives trip over themselves (alt media conservatives) to show TPTB how much of a patsy they were makes me fucking sick. Was like watching beat dogs trying to grovel at the son of a bitch with the stick.
Sorry if I hurt some feelings. I would say as a rule of thumb now that mainstream domestic (Western) alt media conservatives are buckets of shit. They're worse than Rachael Maddow and some probably don't even know it.
Left the U.S. long ago and have never looked back. I wouldn't return there now even if you paid me a lot of money. There is life outside the U.S., believe it or not, and it is better. Everyone laughed at me when I left (because many thought and still think that the U.S. is the only nation with running water, internet, and electricity). No one laughs now. I worked in U.S. universities. I saw the cancer that was spreading from these institutions to the rest of society and knew what was coming. You can see it now... so leave. That is my advice.
Great article and thanks for posting the link. It seems clear that (in case you did not know) the whole summer offensive was organised and planned by NATO. This quote is mirrored elsewhere: "The whole strategy was that the enemy would see us, get scared and start retreating," . The Lt blames intelligence leaks for telling the Russians where and how the UAF would attack but this is misdirection. Everyone knew that and it was being reported in the Western media months before - and how the Russians would flee at the first sight of Challenger tanks etc... The premise does seem to have been a faulty intelligence assessment - what if the Russian's stood and fought seems a scenario not gamed out. Well the answer to that question was pretty obviously that the UAF would be massacred.
On the topic of media silence, I note RealClear Defence has almost nothing on Ukraine but a massive list of articles on how the USA can fight China and even Iran. The absence of reporting tells you a lot I think. https://www.realcleardefense.com/
Then again you have this found on RealClear World. It skates around the issue of losing, talking about a statemate, but then admitting that may not be possible. "Every category is in Russia’s favor and will continue to tilt in Russia’s favor, so I just don’t think it can continue to stay a stalemate". https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-stalemate-2666354627/ Is it so hard to admit that Russia is winning?
Agree with the assessment but I don’t think the Rothschild’s will allow “lower ranking” eschatology-focused Zionists to actually use the Samson option even if that means the dissolution of Israel. Too much multi-generational wealth and power at stake for recklessness.
Just to play devil's advocate: it might not mean the dissolution of Israel, and anyway Israel is only a tool and there are possible futures where it's in (((their))) interests to let it go. If for example glassing the bejesus out of the entire sandscape of the Middle East is considered to be required. Perhaps together with creating a WW2 or WW2x10-style hell in Eastern Europe. (((They))) hate Russians.
More importantly, the whole development of this alienated society worldwide is pushing towards a gigantic cull. There's no point in the owners of society suffering so many serfs to live just so that they can pick their smartphones all day long and sit in front of larger screens when they're at "work" not producing anything. It's in the rulers interests to cut their costs on a huge scale.
Which is not to say that nukes will necessarily be involved. They may not be. There are other kinds of WMD. A while back, Israelis let it be known they were developing an "ethnic bomb" - i.e. an ethnic bioweapon. (If I recall correctly some of the "human subjects" they tested it on - without their permission - were Iraqi Jews. They know damned well that Jews with a Middle Eastern background are Arabs and dissimilar from Ashkenazis.) Then a switch was pulled and of course if anyone says today that Israel may have an ethnic bioweapon in its arsenal or recalls publicly that Israelis once said they were developing one, they're called "anti-Semitic".
Edit: or maybe I misread your post, JT? Apologies if so. Were you saying that (((they))) would choose to allow the dissolution of Israel if the alternative was to go Samson?
Today we are blessed with two more articles – following the recent ‘pivot’ to highlighting terrorism en continue: both are of the pinprick variety : perhaps the Gaza war, ’civilisational’, involving an out of control proxy and after a very good start still somewhat in the balance; consequently The Inner Party has not quite determined the General Directive
Finland to close all land borders with Russia after migrant influx
This looks like an ongoing effort to expand a pinprick into the beloved ‘civilisational’
“Earlier this month, Finland closed its seven other checkpoints with Russia along their 1,340km border, claiming Moscow could be using the migrant traffic as cover to smuggle soldiers and criminals into the EU.
Finland’s interior ministry said the previous closures had failed to stop the traffic and the risk of more migrants attempting to cross Finland’s land borders posed “a serious threat to national security and public order”.
Ukraine claims wife of country’s military intelligence chief was poisoned
Bolsheviks DID NOT have maximalist goal of conquering the World. This is Red Scare propaganda. The idea as far as Russian Empire goes was “peace without concessions and retributions” and what they naively imagined is that it will inspire chain reaction of popular revolutions seeking similar end to WWI.
And just as well they weren’t “helped” by Germans, that was propaganda line taken by provisional government. Maximum help from Germans Lenin received was free pass through German territory in sealed train car. You see, German government hated communists just as much as any contemporary government and they had enough problems with them in Germany to play with fire too much. Lenin in turn was too politically smart (at least tactically, I really have bad opinion on his ability to make strategic political decisions) to accept too much help from enemy of his country.
The US is approaching an inflection point, a watershed moment that will be a break with much of the past... but nobody really knows the details. It will certainly be messy, but whatever comes out the other side won't be a a brand new invention, cut from whole cloth, it will be forged in large part out of the issues we are fighting for right now.
If you plan on staying, focus your efforts on what you want to build, not solely in terms of what you oppose. Whatever comes through will draw upon what we are all doing now.
"Well, maybe in a general sense the Bolsheviks had such maximalist goals, but in the immediate sense they had deals with Germany to get Russia out of the war, which is the only reason they were allowed to come to power by German interests who facilitated and funded them for that purpose."
Bolsheviks didn't have any deals with Germany before the revolution. There are also no traces of them getting money from Germany. Parvus really was a German agent, but Lenin was clever enough either not to meet him, or meet him in the presence of witnesses. Parvus was very much disliked among Bolsheviks after cheating Gorky (he stole all the money after he had organized staging of Gorky's plays in Europe).
For those who are interested and know Russian (I suppose, auto-translation is possible, but not sure about the quality), I'd recommend a thorough research by Gennady Sobolev: http://militera.lib.ru/research/sobolev_gl/index.html. He investigates all possible cases when the Bolsheviks could get money from Germany, and proves (based upon a wide range of documents) that this either didn't happen or possibility was low.
P.S. There is also no doubt, that Germany was ready to help anybody who could get Russia out of WW1. They were spending money, but it is not clear how exactly it was spent.
P.P.S. There is one proven case of the Bolsheviks getting money from Germany. In 1917 Karl Moor (Swiss social democrat, who was also a German agent) gave money for organization of the 3d Zimmerwald conference.
LOL you do realize Germany literally set up a special train (so-called "sealed" to technically not have to undergo border crossing inspections) just to get Lenin and his crew from Switzerland to Sweden (and then a boat to Russia), right? Come on.
Everyone knows about the 'sealed train'. It was an attempt by the Geerman High Command to take advantage of the chaos in Russia by adding the Bolhevik element.
The nonsense that the German government subsidised the Bolsheviks or supported the revolution is just an old White Russian talking point- a transparent attempt to mobilise violently anti German public opinion in the Allied countries to espouse the Tsarist cause.
The longevity of these ancient utterly false memes to survive centuries of contrary evidence- how about the Masons were responsible for the French Revolution?- tells us something very sad about the human mind.
Lenin had 2 possible ways to return home to Russia from Switzerland: 1) via France and Britain; or 2) via Germany and Sweden. It was known, that Britain was arresting Bolsheviks and other politicians who were against the war. E.g. Trotsky was arrested in Canada by British authorities. Thus it was decided to use the second way. Parvus wanted to mediate, but it was declined by Lenin. The trip was mediated by Swiss socialists.
There were in fact several carriages, overall with about 200 Russian revolutionaries from different parties. Bolsheviks were about half of them.
There is nothing special about the carriage being "sealed". It is a normal way of going across a foreign country without a visa. E.g. Russian trains to Kaliningrad via Lithuania were being organized in a similar fashion - Russians were taking these trains, but were not allowed to go out, since they didn't have a normal visa.
Certainly, Germans were expecting that these people might organize some unrest in Russia. But it doesn't prove that there was some deal between them and Germany.
It is also necessary to note, that after the February revolution the Provisional Government invited all emigrant revolutionaries to return back to Russia. So, Lenin was returning to Russia by the invitation of the government.
Hey Simp, another excellent subscriber mailbag! I want to add my own 2cents regarding to the “elites” that control the worlds. In my opinion, they don’t actually control the world, at least not as much as they used to. These elite financiers had their powers curtailed and limited since the Great Depression and right to the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system. They only managed to make a comeback after the US accidentally started the Fiat period by delinking their USD from gold, which granted financiers unprecedented amount of power.
But even then, their influence still has limits even at its peak. They can’t influence on the part of the world in which they don’t have formal presence aka the majority of the world. You could argue that they control the world by having the influence over the most important regions, which was true to some extent but we know that’s no longer the case with recent events unfolding in the world. My point here is that while it’s important to acknowledge their existence and their potential influence, it is also better to realized that they are not omnipotent. They are still people in which there are many intermediate power broker that they have to exercise their influence through and as the old order broken down, the more dysfunctional it become. Not to mention that not a few of them drink their Kool-aid too much they begin to see their own propaganda as the truth itself.
What about the weather peculiarity ? Just a usual beginning of the winter , than for one day a huge snow storm without a build up to it prior . Than returned very fast, to normal balanced early winter . The most heavily effected area was Crimea and Dombass . God of weather Zeus or ................?
The think called "The Weather" has somewhat predictable patterns . The falling empires are also have some patterns . If suppose they are going down , they would use HARP long before nukes . Just remember the mini catastrophe they have caused with the dam brake before the greatest counter offensive . If they have it they will use it , boys will be boys . Even if they are psychopaths , don't underestimate the wicked . But of course I could be wrong , they could even be angels, and I am suspicious for no justifiable reason .
An anecdotal contribution from my side: i live in a nice corner of Spain were many well to do Ukrainians chose to flee at the start of the war. Back then you could easily spot expensive SUVs with Ukrainian license plates on the streets (especially in the areas close to the beach...). The Spanish gov made it mandatory to register the refugees' Ukrainian cars when their stay was longer than 6 months. This means that by latest in summer 2023, all Ukr license plates from the first refugee wave have been swapped by Spanish ones.
This has made easy to spot that a new wave of Ukrainians has been arriving, together with their expensive cars, since ca 2 months ago.
We could infer from this observation that more and more wealthy & well connected Ukrainians -that were until now still living in UKR - are noticing that the situation is getting desperate and are moving out.
As for Question no. 4: i would like to emphasize the power that the narrative managers still have over most of the western public. They were able to brush aside the Afghan debacle and will definitely do it again in Ukraine. Only, this time they will claim victory by the forces of Order and Civilization because, you know, this time we could stop the marauding Russians at the Polish border so that they were not able to reach Berlin again.
Not so sure. They face the law of diminishing returns each time they try to gaslight the public. Even the pathetic sheep who make up most our race are going to start growing cynical at one point - especially if the economic turns bad.
Perhaps this will be addressed next time, but all of the talk about a coup in Kiev focuses on Zaluzhny. Surely Budanov is more likely? He was apparently once slated for a ministerial post and must have been disappointed not to get it. His photos often show him in a smarter uniform than Zaluzhny or a sharper suit than Zelensky, looking more professional than either. He's been out of the headlines for a while but is now getting sympathetic write-ups again over a supposed assassination attempt on his wife (nothing that could be held against him for ambition). What do you think - is he the most likely alternative to Zelensky?
Let me give a "glass half full" assessment of Russia's current position in the SMO. What are Russia's war aims? Demilitarize Ukraine and remove neo-Nazis from influence in Ukraine. Also gain a neutral Ukraine which recognizes the Russian speaking areas of the former Ukraine as part of the RF. Russia does not need to capture Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa to gain these aims. (I think they could even fiddle with the borders a little and find new capitals for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.) That would mean clearing Luhansk and Donetsk I think. These goals are not so far off. I agree the AFU should not be underrated (they're Russians after all - and nobody has ever enjoyed fighting Russians even if you win) but it appears that this "not one step back" strategy demanded by Zelensky gives Russia a golden opportunity to employ its growing firepower advantage to mulch Ukrainian units - Avdiivka could turn into another Bakhmut - ditto the areas in the north, east of the Oskil. It is essential that Russia gain several more obvious victories - something to impress the West and Kiev. This can be done. (Doesn't anyone else think that Russia has plans to "turn out the lights" in urban Ukraine and cripple the transport system with massive missile strikes?) And if Russia comes out of this war with a clear "win" Putin and Russia will both gain great prestige and also can settle down to make Russia into a very rich country. And I doubt many Russian citizens will care if Russian tanks don't roll up to the Polish border.
Would the West accept this. Any "win" for Russia would obviously be a loss for NATO. But it wouldn't break the bank if Russia pursues basic and moderate war aims. And the US can always use the Senator George Aiken excuse for agreeing to a pace agreeable to Russia. In 1968 Aiken advised the American government to declare victory in Vietnam and bring the troops home. The Aiken line works better for Ukraine. The West could say that plucky Ukraine - with indispensable NATO aid - prevented Russia from conquering the whole country. Heck - 75% of Ukrainian territory is still there. (It wouldn't matter that originally Putin had no intention of taking the whole of Ukraine.) And if it's forced to agree to neutrality, who knows what things will look like ten years from now? But what about Ukraine? What if they won't agree to a peace? Well, let's not forget the West pays for Ukraine's soldiers, the bullets, and basically everything required to keep their country from sinking into Haiti like squalor. If we tell Ukraine they must make peace (let them dream about a better future - it won't happen) they will make peace. Clausewitz reminds us that there is a peace party in every warring country and that it grows larger the closer peace gets. Does anyone really think that if the guns go silent that the Ukrainian people - or the population of the EU - will be eager to have another shoot-out with Russia. I don't think so.
Putin is not a natural war leader - he'd cut a deal. I think it very possible that there are quiet preliminary "chats" between the West and Russia going on now. Let Russia pound Ukraine two or three times in the Donets Basin - without threatening a move on Kiev, or the Polish border - I can see those "chats" turning into talks. There's a sea change going on in the way the press is treating the SMO in the American press - and I'd guess the same is true in the EU. If Ukraine suffers some defensive defeats on top of the collapse of their offensive, the West will notice. Then the question will be - hold your nose and make a peace worthy of Metternich - or try to get your country ready for direct intervention and risk WWIII. I'd guess the West would give peace a chance. Let's hope so.
"What are Russia's war aims? Demilitarize Ukraine and remove neo-Nazis from influence in Ukraine."
These *were* Russia's war aims. Given Western fuckery in Ukraine, it is not clear what Russia's war aims are today.
"Would the West accept this. Any "win" for Russia would obviously be a loss for NATO. But it wouldn't break the bank if Russia pursues basic and moderate war aims."
It is not clear that the West will accept anything except an unconditional surrender by Russia or a regime change in Moscow. Because the West's uncompetent leaders have gone all-in on Ukraine and are now stuck.
"Putin is not a natural war leader - he'd cut a deal."
I don't know what you are trying to say, but it is inaccurate.
Putin could be willing to cut a deal if the Russian people weren't fired up - but they are.
Putin could be willing to cut a deal if the US and West weren't "agreement incapable" - but they are.
And even if the 2 above weren't true, the West isn't trying to truly negotiate a peace agreement - they're trying to pull another Minsk 2 as is transparent to anyone with half a brain.
I agree. Putin or his regime "cutting a deal" on anything like western terms is tantamount to a defeat. Hence my view that they will be very unlikely to do so. My thinking is that they will seek to impose by force of arms their original war aims - plus some new ones. This will be the same as a western defeat. But "we" will describe it as a victory. Of sorts.
You are looking at this incorrectly. This is not, and never has been, a "war" between Ukraine and Russia; this is, and always has been, a "war" between the US and Russia. The announced objectives of the SMO should be considered as objectives related ONLY to the Ukrainian front (or theater) of the bigger "war".
Russia naturally wants to prevent the bigger "war" from becoming kinetic in nature, i.e., limiting the kinetic part to Ukraine alone. To accomplish this, Russia's victory over Ukraine must be unequivocal in attaining all objectives. Allowing the US (and/or any of its NATO/EU lapdogs) to retain even an appearance of partial victory in the Ukrainian theater, only increases the likelihood that the US will seek to pursue other kinetic fronts in the future. Thus, for example, Russia must have absolute certainty that the US (or its lapdogs) can never establish any presence along what is now the Ukrainian Black Sea coastline. This requires unequivocal, de facto Russian control, and not simply "guarantees" via negotiations and treaties, as the US (and by extension, all of its proxies) are not trustworthy or "agreement capable".
The inability of the US (or NATO or EU) to claim any sort of victory in Ukraine will reduce its prestige and stature in the eyes of the rest of the world and will only hasten the loss of its influence and power and the establishment of the new world order that is not controlled by the US.
I fear that such a scenario could well come to pass. The upshot would be that the rump Ukraine would be part of NATO, not to mention ready to re-militarize and take another swing in a few years.
As Simp says above, with the new forms of warfare, it probably wouldn't have been possible to have taken all of Ukraine in one go. The best policy for Russia is probably to grab as much as possible East of the Dnieper and then sit tight while the west disintegrates.
Do you get paid extra for saying "Sounds like cope"? The Russians could have taken Kiev but they would have left themselves exposed to the still-intact and numerically superior Ukrainian army. Russia has made plenty of mistakes but it looks like it's on the path to victory with its slow, steady approach.
'Large new movements are growing in Europe, we’ve seen the wave of conservative and ‘right wing’ candidates sweeping many countries. The citizens are up in arms and angrier than ever, with major protests getting steadily more violent in France, Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, and everywhere in between. Insanely totalitarian new laws are being rolled out everywhere, from the new proposed clampdowns in Ireland, to the crazy anti-free-speech laws in Germany and the EU at large with their DSA.'
Feel this is a little off the mark given the candidates mentioned tend to be born still of the American milieu of NGOs and back scratching funding. Some citizens up at arms in these violent protests are never about directly challenging the system of American domination in Europe but, in fact, most of the time are directly influenced by American politics (Ireland's uprising was filled with people who actively attack other groups that threaten American economic interests). It's important to note the sheer contrast in reaction to the French strikers that storm blackrock HQs (crickets on msm) with the Netherlands/Slovakian election or Ireland riots angrily raging against liberalism by doing what liberals do but a little angrier and less abstract. (breathless coverage about how mad liberals will be if you join these 'scary' movements)
'Based' countries in discussions like this are Poland and Hungary, both of which always seem to come just up to the limit of the leash the Americans have to goad the other Europeans to stay in line lest these up and coming powers gobble up their land in the absence of US support. Both play a good game of being designated fifth column while being huge sponges for US cash (Orban is a Soros man after all which is a fact he tries very hard to obfuscate)
In Britain you can draw a HEAVY contrast between these 'patriot' movements, that have spent the years since 2016 just constantly handing more power to the City of London, and by extension, the Americans, while fixating on imported culture war neuroses, with the movement awakened by Corbyn and the soft coup against him. The RMT union (others too but RMT was the vanguard) has been quietly but consistently linking all ruiling parties to the Americans while demanding economic concessions for normal people. RMT membership is an actual representation of normal western workers and its striking the hostility they have to the 'patriot' movement with members more than once joking to me about how many spycops make up the movement. I mean Eddie Dempsey, the deputy gen sec, even visited Donbas out of solidarity back in 2014 and basically told pearl clutching liberals to fuck off when they try to shame him for it.
Anyway, my point is that I think a lot of the reaction we have to current circumstances that is elevated on msm is itself just a separate means of capture of oppositional energy within western countries and channel it from one wing of American oligarch (centered around finance capital borne out of the 2008 bailouts) to another wing of American oligarchy (centered around industrial capital that split from the flailing vulcans in 2008). The Ukraine war fucked up but its naive to assume that the americans aren't co-opting the reaction to that fuck up to their own end of splitting Europe to justify elevating exploitation of western european 'made men' as the rest of the empire collapses.
Love what you do so don't take this as a screed, just think you'd like a fresh perspective on this. I think studying Danny Casciaro, PROMIS and Poppy Bush helps to demonstrate how much more diffuse and factional the power elite are and that taking an oppositional posture to the msm media is most of the time the actual intended result for the scarier power elite.
Anyway, my point is that I think a lot of the reaction we have to current circumstances that is elevated on msm is itself just a separate means of capture of oppositional energy within western countries and channel it from one wing of American oligarch (centered around finance capital borne out of the 2008 bailouts) to another wing of American oligarchy (centered around industrial capital that split from the flailing vulcans in 2008).
I'm so convinced Orban is an American asset it isn't even funny. Hungarian minorities in other EU states make Hungary a great 'foil' to the EU to push forward to show the fairly dull political class in Europe what can happen if they don't go along with the Americans. Suddenly a lot of dormant ethnic questions in central Europe will flair up again. I mean Orban was originally a Soros man which makes his political project being so focused on bashing Soros feel so artifical. Orbanites also host American conservatives constantly which people point to as 'based' (as if american conservatives and liberals don't sing from the same song sheet at the top levels, libs with finance capital and cons with extractive capital)
Also don't use substack often to comment hence the late reply, sorry!
- Covid and “Climate Change” hoaxes. Are they though? Bodies did pile up during the pandemi and there is an uptick in cases and there is more evidence of the long term effects of Covid. Simplicius' posts are frequently linked by nakedcapitalism.com, which also have a long run series of links and posts about Covid, with Lambert keeping a close tab on things. Covid is definitely not a hoax. What was problematic is how it was handled.
Also, the climate is warming and the warming is caused by humans pumping increasingly large amounts of CO2. It is just physics baby. How it is being addressed, that is also the problem, as with Covid.
-With respect to the reconstruction of USSR. The very well ethnically defined republics, the three Baltic ones, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, each one with a well established language, history, culture, traditions of course refuse to participate. Nationalism is a powerful force. And among those six, Moldova is in fact a ripped part of the bigger Romanian ethnic and political body. The Slavs my congeal together, but the rest will like to stay forever sparate.
Guess again on Moldova, my friend. This is just tired old rhetoric from people who have never spent any time there. Moldovans are a unique people with a unique culture and part of that is a DEEP interconnection with Russia. It's not so much that there are a lot of ethnic Russians in Moldova (although there are some) but that Russian language, culture, food, religious traditions, etc, are a big part of what makes a Moldovan a Moldovan.
Calling them "Romanians" is like stripping out two-thirds of their identity and only keeping that one part. It just cannot and will not happen. Even Onisifor Ghibu back in the 1920s was astonished at just how tenacious Moldovans were at keeping their identity, which is only PART Romanian, but is also part Russian, but is also part Bulgarian too, and even part Ukrainian, and part (uniquely) Moldovan.
If you think I'm dead wrong, then watch the 100% pro-EU pro-Romanian parliament video feed from Chisinau and watch how many times one of the deputies will speak in Russian.
Moldovans are also the people between Prut and Carpathians and Siret/Danube, very resilient and proud of who they are. Also, Romanian language itself is full of Slavic words, from pizada to norod/narod. The fact that some Moldovan parliamentarian moves to Russian is a consequence of the , forced Russification especially more pronounced on people with higher education, and older. Younger people not that much, or peasants spending their lives in their compact Moldavian villages. Spending time a couple of summers in the countryside after 1993 helping with Forest Management planning there, I didnt see much difference between villagers west of the Prut form vilagers east of the Prut. And peasants in areas in Romania with a Hungarian component would use sometimes words and expressions in Hungarian. Doesnt make them less ethnic Romanians.
Just physics baby. I’m an engineer and use a material balance systems to process numbers.
COVID: Correlating all cause mortality to the Covid timeline shows there was not a pandemic that killed large numbers of people.
CO2 : What % of the atmosphere is carbon dioxide? 0.04%. What “physics” do you have that proves CO2 causes global warming?
Take a look at a climate report for the past 10,000 years without omitting any time period. You will see that we are not in some highly escalating global “boiling”.
I’m open to any verifiable information you have but will counter with my information.
A “just physics” answer doesn’t work with me. I need hard and fast numbers
Dead bodies come with death certificate where primary cause of death is noted. This is how we know that many people have died and are dying of Covid. And there was excess mortality in 2020, 2021, etc. Covid was the third main cause of death in Canada in 2022.
.
CO2 with its molecular structure absorbs heat. Methane absorbs 50 times more heat than CO2. So yes, when we dump many gigatones of CO2 in the atmosphere and we are at the point that we almost doubled the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere compared to 50 years ago, we have a problem, that is not linear. And yeah, the fact that alpine glaciers are almost gone, that rivers dont freeze over the winter as they used to, that in fact rivers are sometimes even dead in the summer, is not something of a signal for you.
You seem to be unaware that at least in the US, there was a tick box added to the standard death cert to indicate if the person was CV positive (according to a very questionable test, which had no way to determine if a CV infection was present before or after entering the medical facility). An extra $30k+ was awarded to the facility if that box was checked. Result ... huge overcount ...
I don't know about US much, but I have access to all health data of individuals in my area, including extracts (complete) from the deathfile, due to my work. And no, I wouldnt cast doubt on the workforce that produces these datasets.
The bane of the modern mind is computer "modelling" and then claiming that this modelling is "physics" or "science." Science is empirical and based upon the real world: not a garbage in; garbage out computer model with limited and defective algorithms.
COVID is not a hoax, but it is a disease that primarily kills old people.
What was a clear hoax were: 1) the vaccines would limit COVID transmission (100% false) 2) the vaccines would reduce the chance of a vaccinated getting COVID (100% false) 3) mass vaccination would be good for everyone, overall (100% false)
Climate Change
More CO2 leads to more warming, but it does not lead to proportionately more warming. Its just physics, baby. There are probably not enough fossil fuels, accessible, for humans to burn to generate enough extra CO2 for another doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels from today.
What is NOT physics is where the scammery begins: what is the actual termperature response to CO2 increases? What are the economic impacts of higher temperature? Are the economic impacts net positive or negative? How much positive or negative? Does this justify truly enormous financial expenditures?
We almost doubled the CO2 in 50 years. With more people now and higher consumption, you think we cannot achieve another doubling, but even faster? What are the impacts? drought and failed crops, and ultimately famine and death. When the Oghalala goes dry in the midwest, there won't be enough rain to sustain US staple agriculture production...
Among other things, the doubling of CO2 levels from the past to today was accomplished over 150 years - from ~200 to 400. Doubling from today doesn’t mean from 400 to 600, it means from 400 to 800. Or in other words twice more fossil fuels have the be burnt in the next decade or two than in the entire 150 years to date. Not seeing either the reserves or the consumption level.
As for drought and what not: the IPCC itself says the drought, famine, hurricane etc impacts from climate change to date are minimal to not detectable. Ditto deaths due to climate: they are decreasing not increasing.
The scammery of the climate doomsayers keep moving forward further and further into the future.
Ice free Arctic? Fail
No snow in England? Fail
The list of failed climate doom predictions is literally hundreds and thousands of lines long.
I don’t have any problem whatsoever to conserve or waste less, but the pronouncements of doom are utter bollocks.
The Arctic is not fully free but is freer and freer, otherwise the Russians wouldnt built and legislate pasage through north and Americans wouldn't be gnashing their teeth in impotence and fury.
The climate change is associated with a lot of instability and oscillations, which were predicted, but the trend is there and the list of climate predictions, at least those vetted and revetted that have failed is realy not long.
As for droughts, as I said, IPCC is partly scientific and partly politic and the politics always trump.
Among other things, the summary reports - which all the lazy people read - bear little resemblance to the details in the long rest of the report.
I don't consider Hansen to be the least bit credible as a scientist albeit he is a fine advocate.
The Arctic being freer are freer - and so what? The melting ice is also revealing Viking settlements from the last warm period - long before mass fossil fuel burning.
Nor is your assertion about "instability and oscillations, which were predicted" accurate. I've been following this nonsense for 30 years and know exactly what was predicted.
If there is hot weather, it is climate change.
If there is cold weather, it is climate change.
If there is a drought, it is climate change.
If there is a flood, it is climate change.
So in other words, if anything happens anywhere for any reason, it is climate change.
Yet the reality is that the supposed warming of 1.5 degrees to date and 3 to 5 degrees in the next 100 years is far, far less than the change of temperature in any single day from midnight to midnight.
The reality is that fewer and fewer people have been dying every year from climate OR weather related occurrences. The predictor isn't temperature - it is wealth.
The IPCC is garbage because it refuses to consider any possible positive outcomes of CO2 emissions or warming - for example - the well documented greening of the planet from CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are also responsible for a significant percentage of food production increases.
So yes, temperatures are increasing but it is neither clear that this is really a catastrophe nor that said temperature increases are avoidable no matter what the West's idiots want.
Also: please take into consideration that the Climate is ALWAYS changing! The Dust Bowl, the Little Ice Age, The Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, etc. are proven facts.
We are still in the process of moving from a cold period (the Little Ice Age) to a new Warm Period. Which is not a bad thing, actually.
For people with cognitive dissonance, no amount of receipts will suffice.
My original post was for Simplicius who can do research, but obviously hasn't on the field of covid and climate. Also, he might make certain assertions just to play on his readership...
Im an old person ….Its only sick people tha the covid cold can kill …. Not old people per se …we are smart enuf to get this far, donyou think wem would let a cold take us down?
The mortality numbers for people over 70 are really high. A sick 70 year old is much worse than a healthy 70 year old, but the chance for the healthy 70 year old to die from COVID is basically 100 times greater than a healthy 50 year old.
It is all relative.
There are some major variations though - and it does seem to relate to immune system variation. It isn't just "strength" of immune system because the mortality numbers in Asia - everywhere in Asia and across all age demographics, health variations etc - are far less than in the US or Europe. It seems very possible that there are some non-COVID coronaviruses in Asia that confer some partial benefit.
But yes - getting COVID isn't an automatic death sentence for old people.
What is really scary are some of the anecdotes coming out from doctors: one guy said he had seen 5 cases of galloping cancer in 20 years of practice, but saw 2 cases just in the past year. Both were 5x vaccinated+boosters each and also had gotten COVID at least 5 or 6 times each (but obviously non lethal). He said that you generally only see galloping cancers when there is something seriously wrong with the immune system.
"Also, the climate is warming and the warming is caused by humans pumping increasingly large amounts of CO2."
The former may be true but not for the last several years. The latter is far from proven. Else there would be a Carbon Index that can tell us how much temperature will rise for a given amount of atmospheric CO2.
They can't even model the clouds/water vapor in the atmosphere, both a potent warmer and cooler of the atmosphere, with their supercomputer models. That's at least a decade off.
Anyway back to your simplistic AGW propoganda, ...
Go to Russia or Serbia bro... I am a Canadian living in Russia right now. There is a HUGE culture shock, but one of immense positivity in terms of traditional culture and society...I feel at HOME here and the poisonous roots of the west don't exist, or at least extremely small.
I, so, love…THIS💙🇷🇺❤️
If I were just 10 years younger, I'd move to Russia. The West is going bye bye.
Indian and Chinese people all seem to know the west is going kaput.
I haven't encountered any who think otherwise.
Not sure about Russians. Haven't met many in recent years. It wouldn't surprise me if they think both the west and Russia are going bye bye.
Yep. And Russia, mind you, is not perfect. Got lots of problems. Main one for me would be the covid/injection thing. But they know they got problems. And they work at things.
The difference is hard to define. I think it is in the basis of the whole country. The USA is overtly and intrinsically and ostensibly and in every way totally devoted to dollar profit and dollars and bullcrap are the measure of the man and of greatness.
Make a million from any scam at all, get big in Hollywood - bam: you're a role model, a guru, a deity.
Russia apparently has powerful oligarchs screwing things up, youngsters and middle classes devoted to instant fame and dollars, too.\
Corruption left over from USSR.
All kinds of stuff.
But it has as a nominal overt and even intrinsic base the idea of value and greatness being something to do with the heart and goodness of a man and his society.
You know they lost 20 million dead back in WWII. Most of the west is totally unconscious of the fact. Isn't that true? Totally unconscious. Absolutely unaware.
Know nothing of it. Means nothing to them. At all. Superman and Spiderman mean more. Star Wars and 'Desert Storm', 'killing ragheads' and so on.
That's the reality of the American, the average westerner.
For Russians and the Russian state is the memory of 20 million dead.
See?
There's a difference.
One lives in threadbare dreamland. Always in denial.
The other lives in a tangible reality. Warts and all.
I, could be your neighbor? 42 degrees North, 123 West. Family just moved to Idaho. Feeling the pull…❤️🇷🇺💙
Corvallis is better than Eugene and Portland. But I hear you. West Oregon sucks. The state doesn't follow it's own Constitution let alone the US Constitution.
Corvallis? Just as in the fires die series?
Who will get the nukes?
We’re well west of Denver in the Rockies on a very secluded homestead. It might as well be a different country demographically and politically. Very low population density but tight nit mountain community of people that can build, fix, create, garden, raise livestock, fish, hunt and are heavily armed on average. It’s like the opposite of a city. A paradise of sorts. It’s also geographically beneficial as far as controlling access via terrain and natural choke points.
I forsee fortified and guarded communities popping up in rural places throughout America organically if the S really HTF. Especially in a scenario where mobility is heavily limited due to a collapse of infrastructure, lack of fuel and very dangerous traveling conditions.
It will be a resurgence of the 18-19th century village and will become the backbone of those that create and rebuild new territories in the country formally known as the United States.
Or they figure out how to perpetually kick the can down the road and nothing major happens.
Yes, that's a likely scenario. You are very fortunate.
My opinion is its understandable how you feel and why you feel it and the actions you propose but it's all wrong.
The future is not a return to the past and isolated 'forts' in hostile territory.
The future is what is represented here in these columns.
The coming together of the people of the world (and USA) in 'cyberspace', in the computer.
Where we can meet each other and talk with each other.
Where we can have access to ALL the knowledge and data of the world: ALL of it - i.e. how much money Bill Gates (for instance) has and where it is and where the records are and how easy it would be to change those records and divest him (or anyone else) of it all.
See?
Where we can invent and put up apps that will enable us to do flash referendi on any subject at all and find out what really is the will of the people.
Where we could have apps that are 'perpetual' referendi that keep track of how we are all voting minute by minute. So that elections become unnecessary.
Where we have apps that constantly monitor everything our elected reps do, every word they say in assembly, every vote they cast.
Apps that put to them our requirements of them: tell them what to do.
Apps that put before us the rock solid facts of matters, the real data from proven sources, checked and re-checked.
And so on.
Where WE stop stupidly marching up and down in the streets 'demanding' the 'govt do something' (else we'll burn some of our own cars, set to hitting and hurting each other, destroy our own property) and instead DO the things that need doing ourselves via the web.
WE today have the power. Via the web and our constant instant access to it via our smartphones.
Sort of like that.
And you know what that would be? It would be democracy. For the first time in history, ever. Government of the people by the people for the people. All the people. They didn't have that even in ancient Greece you know.
Well, that's what we need now. Not everyone running away to hide in their own log cabin and play hollywood cowboy heroes.
I used to balk at the thought of that. I didn't care much for ceding ground to shitheads but now reality has set in. The most important thing is to fortify areas. Simp's piece about "Civil War (quest 10)" is something else. Great illustration of critical thought. There's one black pill staring us all in the face however. At the state level it seems all is lost. I don't trust ANY republican governor anymore.
As long as this media continues unabated we are going to be swimming upstream. I am encouraged after seeing them scramble in mid October. They weren't ready for that and some of their henchmen got off the reservation.
CAN I JUST SAY......for GOD's sake if that EVER HAPPENS AGAIN WISE UP. HELP YOUR ENEMIES if indeed they ATTACK YOUR MOST DANGEROUS ONE. Watching conservatives trip over themselves (alt media conservatives) to show TPTB how much of a patsy they were makes me fucking sick. Was like watching beat dogs trying to grovel at the son of a bitch with the stick.
Sorry if I hurt some feelings. I would say as a rule of thumb now that mainstream domestic (Western) alt media conservatives are buckets of shit. They're worse than Rachael Maddow and some probably don't even know it.
Left the U.S. long ago and have never looked back. I wouldn't return there now even if you paid me a lot of money. There is life outside the U.S., believe it or not, and it is better. Everyone laughed at me when I left (because many thought and still think that the U.S. is the only nation with running water, internet, and electricity). No one laughs now. I worked in U.S. universities. I saw the cancer that was spreading from these institutions to the rest of society and knew what was coming. You can see it now... so leave. That is my advice.
Here's a bit of MSN truth telling on Ukraine. The fall has definately begun methinks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-29/ukraine-counteroffensive-challenges/103158114
Great article and thanks for posting the link. It seems clear that (in case you did not know) the whole summer offensive was organised and planned by NATO. This quote is mirrored elsewhere: "The whole strategy was that the enemy would see us, get scared and start retreating," . The Lt blames intelligence leaks for telling the Russians where and how the UAF would attack but this is misdirection. Everyone knew that and it was being reported in the Western media months before - and how the Russians would flee at the first sight of Challenger tanks etc... The premise does seem to have been a faulty intelligence assessment - what if the Russian's stood and fought seems a scenario not gamed out. Well the answer to that question was pretty obviously that the UAF would be massacred.
On the topic of media silence, I note RealClear Defence has almost nothing on Ukraine but a massive list of articles on how the USA can fight China and even Iran. The absence of reporting tells you a lot I think. https://www.realcleardefense.com/
Then again you have this found on RealClear World. It skates around the issue of losing, talking about a statemate, but then admitting that may not be possible. "Every category is in Russia’s favor and will continue to tilt in Russia’s favor, so I just don’t think it can continue to stay a stalemate". https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-stalemate-2666354627/ Is it so hard to admit that Russia is winning?
And of course just to prove the point, the latest update on RCD has 9 articles on the Ukraine war....
I suspect someone is deliberately winding me up. Either that, or I am mistaken. Could be. Happened once in 1986.... ;-)
Let's be clear. NATO/Collective West/Hegemon, etc. IS Zionism. That means the Samson option. Let's not forget that.
Agree with the assessment but I don’t think the Rothschild’s will allow “lower ranking” eschatology-focused Zionists to actually use the Samson option even if that means the dissolution of Israel. Too much multi-generational wealth and power at stake for recklessness.
Just to play devil's advocate: it might not mean the dissolution of Israel, and anyway Israel is only a tool and there are possible futures where it's in (((their))) interests to let it go. If for example glassing the bejesus out of the entire sandscape of the Middle East is considered to be required. Perhaps together with creating a WW2 or WW2x10-style hell in Eastern Europe. (((They))) hate Russians.
More importantly, the whole development of this alienated society worldwide is pushing towards a gigantic cull. There's no point in the owners of society suffering so many serfs to live just so that they can pick their smartphones all day long and sit in front of larger screens when they're at "work" not producing anything. It's in the rulers interests to cut their costs on a huge scale.
Which is not to say that nukes will necessarily be involved. They may not be. There are other kinds of WMD. A while back, Israelis let it be known they were developing an "ethnic bomb" - i.e. an ethnic bioweapon. (If I recall correctly some of the "human subjects" they tested it on - without their permission - were Iraqi Jews. They know damned well that Jews with a Middle Eastern background are Arabs and dissimilar from Ashkenazis.) Then a switch was pulled and of course if anyone says today that Israel may have an ethnic bioweapon in its arsenal or recalls publicly that Israelis once said they were developing one, they're called "anti-Semitic".
Edit: or maybe I misread your post, JT? Apologies if so. Were you saying that (((they))) would choose to allow the dissolution of Israel if the alternative was to go Samson?
Nice write up. Thanks!
29 Nov 2023 FT Ukraine Popularity Poll
Today we are blessed with two more articles – following the recent ‘pivot’ to highlighting terrorism en continue: both are of the pinprick variety : perhaps the Gaza war, ’civilisational’, involving an out of control proxy and after a very good start still somewhat in the balance; consequently The Inner Party has not quite determined the General Directive
Finland to close all land borders with Russia after migrant influx
https://www.ft.com/content/1c195b60-b0ec-42a3-9efd-c4aced026e6f
This looks like an ongoing effort to expand a pinprick into the beloved ‘civilisational’
“Earlier this month, Finland closed its seven other checkpoints with Russia along their 1,340km border, claiming Moscow could be using the migrant traffic as cover to smuggle soldiers and criminals into the EU.
Finland’s interior ministry said the previous closures had failed to stop the traffic and the risk of more migrants attempting to cross Finland’s land borders posed “a serious threat to national security and public order”.
Ukraine claims wife of country’s military intelligence chief was poisoned
https://www.ft.com/content/b41d57ad-a9f1-4e16-bd9d-cfe92d6cf5a4
The revival of the Russians are terrorists line, but merely an anecdote so far
Regarding question #2
Bolsheviks DID NOT have maximalist goal of conquering the World. This is Red Scare propaganda. The idea as far as Russian Empire goes was “peace without concessions and retributions” and what they naively imagined is that it will inspire chain reaction of popular revolutions seeking similar end to WWI.
And just as well they weren’t “helped” by Germans, that was propaganda line taken by provisional government. Maximum help from Germans Lenin received was free pass through German territory in sealed train car. You see, German government hated communists just as much as any contemporary government and they had enough problems with them in Germany to play with fire too much. Lenin in turn was too politically smart (at least tactically, I really have bad opinion on his ability to make strategic political decisions) to accept too much help from enemy of his country.
Yeah, thanks for the comment. The Communist boogeyman strikes again...
People tend to forget that at that time Communist & Socialist parties were much more prevalent in Central Europe than in Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_Soviet_Republic
RE #14 wither the USA
The US is approaching an inflection point, a watershed moment that will be a break with much of the past... but nobody really knows the details. It will certainly be messy, but whatever comes out the other side won't be a a brand new invention, cut from whole cloth, it will be forged in large part out of the issues we are fighting for right now.
If you plan on staying, focus your efforts on what you want to build, not solely in terms of what you oppose. Whatever comes through will draw upon what we are all doing now.
My sentiments exactly. Well said.
Certain, Logical, Massively well informed, cultured; Excellence! Big, Big Thanks!!
"Well, maybe in a general sense the Bolsheviks had such maximalist goals, but in the immediate sense they had deals with Germany to get Russia out of the war, which is the only reason they were allowed to come to power by German interests who facilitated and funded them for that purpose."
Bolsheviks didn't have any deals with Germany before the revolution. There are also no traces of them getting money from Germany. Parvus really was a German agent, but Lenin was clever enough either not to meet him, or meet him in the presence of witnesses. Parvus was very much disliked among Bolsheviks after cheating Gorky (he stole all the money after he had organized staging of Gorky's plays in Europe).
For those who are interested and know Russian (I suppose, auto-translation is possible, but not sure about the quality), I'd recommend a thorough research by Gennady Sobolev: http://militera.lib.ru/research/sobolev_gl/index.html. He investigates all possible cases when the Bolsheviks could get money from Germany, and proves (based upon a wide range of documents) that this either didn't happen or possibility was low.
P.S. There is also no doubt, that Germany was ready to help anybody who could get Russia out of WW1. They were spending money, but it is not clear how exactly it was spent.
P.P.S. There is one proven case of the Bolsheviks getting money from Germany. In 1917 Karl Moor (Swiss social democrat, who was also a German agent) gave money for organization of the 3d Zimmerwald conference.
LOL you do realize Germany literally set up a special train (so-called "sealed" to technically not have to undergo border crossing inspections) just to get Lenin and his crew from Switzerland to Sweden (and then a boat to Russia), right? Come on.
Everyone knows about the 'sealed train'. It was an attempt by the Geerman High Command to take advantage of the chaos in Russia by adding the Bolhevik element.
The nonsense that the German government subsidised the Bolsheviks or supported the revolution is just an old White Russian talking point- a transparent attempt to mobilise violently anti German public opinion in the Allied countries to espouse the Tsarist cause.
The longevity of these ancient utterly false memes to survive centuries of contrary evidence- how about the Masons were responsible for the French Revolution?- tells us something very sad about the human mind.
Lenin had 2 possible ways to return home to Russia from Switzerland: 1) via France and Britain; or 2) via Germany and Sweden. It was known, that Britain was arresting Bolsheviks and other politicians who were against the war. E.g. Trotsky was arrested in Canada by British authorities. Thus it was decided to use the second way. Parvus wanted to mediate, but it was declined by Lenin. The trip was mediated by Swiss socialists.
There were in fact several carriages, overall with about 200 Russian revolutionaries from different parties. Bolsheviks were about half of them.
There is nothing special about the carriage being "sealed". It is a normal way of going across a foreign country without a visa. E.g. Russian trains to Kaliningrad via Lithuania were being organized in a similar fashion - Russians were taking these trains, but were not allowed to go out, since they didn't have a normal visa.
Certainly, Germans were expecting that these people might organize some unrest in Russia. But it doesn't prove that there was some deal between them and Germany.
It is also necessary to note, that after the February revolution the Provisional Government invited all emigrant revolutionaries to return back to Russia. So, Lenin was returning to Russia by the invitation of the government.
Hey Simp, another excellent subscriber mailbag! I want to add my own 2cents regarding to the “elites” that control the worlds. In my opinion, they don’t actually control the world, at least not as much as they used to. These elite financiers had their powers curtailed and limited since the Great Depression and right to the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system. They only managed to make a comeback after the US accidentally started the Fiat period by delinking their USD from gold, which granted financiers unprecedented amount of power.
But even then, their influence still has limits even at its peak. They can’t influence on the part of the world in which they don’t have formal presence aka the majority of the world. You could argue that they control the world by having the influence over the most important regions, which was true to some extent but we know that’s no longer the case with recent events unfolding in the world. My point here is that while it’s important to acknowledge their existence and their potential influence, it is also better to realized that they are not omnipotent. They are still people in which there are many intermediate power broker that they have to exercise their influence through and as the old order broken down, the more dysfunctional it become. Not to mention that not a few of them drink their Kool-aid too much they begin to see their own propaganda as the truth itself.
What about the weather peculiarity ? Just a usual beginning of the winter , than for one day a huge snow storm without a build up to it prior . Than returned very fast, to normal balanced early winter . The most heavily effected area was Crimea and Dombass . God of weather Zeus or ................?
For the record, that storm also blasted eastern Romania and Moldova (and PMR), so let's not get into silly talk about "weather weapons."
Experiment , dictated by desperation also will happen . It was a stand out event , so not sure . Short duration very violent effect , just not sure.
Weather happens.
A thing called "The Weather"
The think called "The Weather" has somewhat predictable patterns . The falling empires are also have some patterns . If suppose they are going down , they would use HARP long before nukes . Just remember the mini catastrophe they have caused with the dam brake before the greatest counter offensive . If they have it they will use it , boys will be boys . Even if they are psychopaths , don't underestimate the wicked . But of course I could be wrong , they could even be angels, and I am suspicious for no justifiable reason .
Superb work as usual Mr Simplicius!
An anecdotal contribution from my side: i live in a nice corner of Spain were many well to do Ukrainians chose to flee at the start of the war. Back then you could easily spot expensive SUVs with Ukrainian license plates on the streets (especially in the areas close to the beach...). The Spanish gov made it mandatory to register the refugees' Ukrainian cars when their stay was longer than 6 months. This means that by latest in summer 2023, all Ukr license plates from the first refugee wave have been swapped by Spanish ones.
This has made easy to spot that a new wave of Ukrainians has been arriving, together with their expensive cars, since ca 2 months ago.
We could infer from this observation that more and more wealthy & well connected Ukrainians -that were until now still living in UKR - are noticing that the situation is getting desperate and are moving out.
As for Question no. 4: i would like to emphasize the power that the narrative managers still have over most of the western public. They were able to brush aside the Afghan debacle and will definitely do it again in Ukraine. Only, this time they will claim victory by the forces of Order and Civilization because, you know, this time we could stop the marauding Russians at the Polish border so that they were not able to reach Berlin again.
Not so sure. They face the law of diminishing returns each time they try to gaslight the public. Even the pathetic sheep who make up most our race are going to start growing cynical at one point - especially if the economic turns bad.
Perhaps this will be addressed next time, but all of the talk about a coup in Kiev focuses on Zaluzhny. Surely Budanov is more likely? He was apparently once slated for a ministerial post and must have been disappointed not to get it. His photos often show him in a smarter uniform than Zaluzhny or a sharper suit than Zelensky, looking more professional than either. He's been out of the headlines for a while but is now getting sympathetic write-ups again over a supposed assassination attempt on his wife (nothing that could be held against him for ambition). What do you think - is he the most likely alternative to Zelensky?
or Yermak, no?
Yermak is no different than Zelensky. They are inextricably associated.
What would be the point?
Budanov is too much of a dumbass.
Let me give a "glass half full" assessment of Russia's current position in the SMO. What are Russia's war aims? Demilitarize Ukraine and remove neo-Nazis from influence in Ukraine. Also gain a neutral Ukraine which recognizes the Russian speaking areas of the former Ukraine as part of the RF. Russia does not need to capture Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa to gain these aims. (I think they could even fiddle with the borders a little and find new capitals for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.) That would mean clearing Luhansk and Donetsk I think. These goals are not so far off. I agree the AFU should not be underrated (they're Russians after all - and nobody has ever enjoyed fighting Russians even if you win) but it appears that this "not one step back" strategy demanded by Zelensky gives Russia a golden opportunity to employ its growing firepower advantage to mulch Ukrainian units - Avdiivka could turn into another Bakhmut - ditto the areas in the north, east of the Oskil. It is essential that Russia gain several more obvious victories - something to impress the West and Kiev. This can be done. (Doesn't anyone else think that Russia has plans to "turn out the lights" in urban Ukraine and cripple the transport system with massive missile strikes?) And if Russia comes out of this war with a clear "win" Putin and Russia will both gain great prestige and also can settle down to make Russia into a very rich country. And I doubt many Russian citizens will care if Russian tanks don't roll up to the Polish border.
Would the West accept this. Any "win" for Russia would obviously be a loss for NATO. But it wouldn't break the bank if Russia pursues basic and moderate war aims. And the US can always use the Senator George Aiken excuse for agreeing to a pace agreeable to Russia. In 1968 Aiken advised the American government to declare victory in Vietnam and bring the troops home. The Aiken line works better for Ukraine. The West could say that plucky Ukraine - with indispensable NATO aid - prevented Russia from conquering the whole country. Heck - 75% of Ukrainian territory is still there. (It wouldn't matter that originally Putin had no intention of taking the whole of Ukraine.) And if it's forced to agree to neutrality, who knows what things will look like ten years from now? But what about Ukraine? What if they won't agree to a peace? Well, let's not forget the West pays for Ukraine's soldiers, the bullets, and basically everything required to keep their country from sinking into Haiti like squalor. If we tell Ukraine they must make peace (let them dream about a better future - it won't happen) they will make peace. Clausewitz reminds us that there is a peace party in every warring country and that it grows larger the closer peace gets. Does anyone really think that if the guns go silent that the Ukrainian people - or the population of the EU - will be eager to have another shoot-out with Russia. I don't think so.
Putin is not a natural war leader - he'd cut a deal. I think it very possible that there are quiet preliminary "chats" between the West and Russia going on now. Let Russia pound Ukraine two or three times in the Donets Basin - without threatening a move on Kiev, or the Polish border - I can see those "chats" turning into talks. There's a sea change going on in the way the press is treating the SMO in the American press - and I'd guess the same is true in the EU. If Ukraine suffers some defensive defeats on top of the collapse of their offensive, the West will notice. Then the question will be - hold your nose and make a peace worthy of Metternich - or try to get your country ready for direct intervention and risk WWIII. I'd guess the West would give peace a chance. Let's hope so.
"What are Russia's war aims? Demilitarize Ukraine and remove neo-Nazis from influence in Ukraine."
These *were* Russia's war aims. Given Western fuckery in Ukraine, it is not clear what Russia's war aims are today.
"Would the West accept this. Any "win" for Russia would obviously be a loss for NATO. But it wouldn't break the bank if Russia pursues basic and moderate war aims."
It is not clear that the West will accept anything except an unconditional surrender by Russia or a regime change in Moscow. Because the West's uncompetent leaders have gone all-in on Ukraine and are now stuck.
"Putin is not a natural war leader - he'd cut a deal."
I don't know what you are trying to say, but it is inaccurate.
Putin could be willing to cut a deal if the Russian people weren't fired up - but they are.
Putin could be willing to cut a deal if the US and West weren't "agreement incapable" - but they are.
And even if the 2 above weren't true, the West isn't trying to truly negotiate a peace agreement - they're trying to pull another Minsk 2 as is transparent to anyone with half a brain.
I agree. Putin or his regime "cutting a deal" on anything like western terms is tantamount to a defeat. Hence my view that they will be very unlikely to do so. My thinking is that they will seek to impose by force of arms their original war aims - plus some new ones. This will be the same as a western defeat. But "we" will describe it as a victory. Of sorts.
That's the question: how can the West spin a Ukrainian surrender as a victory?
That's looking like the most likely outcome at this point.
Putin will negotiated hypersonically.
You are looking at this incorrectly. This is not, and never has been, a "war" between Ukraine and Russia; this is, and always has been, a "war" between the US and Russia. The announced objectives of the SMO should be considered as objectives related ONLY to the Ukrainian front (or theater) of the bigger "war".
Russia naturally wants to prevent the bigger "war" from becoming kinetic in nature, i.e., limiting the kinetic part to Ukraine alone. To accomplish this, Russia's victory over Ukraine must be unequivocal in attaining all objectives. Allowing the US (and/or any of its NATO/EU lapdogs) to retain even an appearance of partial victory in the Ukrainian theater, only increases the likelihood that the US will seek to pursue other kinetic fronts in the future. Thus, for example, Russia must have absolute certainty that the US (or its lapdogs) can never establish any presence along what is now the Ukrainian Black Sea coastline. This requires unequivocal, de facto Russian control, and not simply "guarantees" via negotiations and treaties, as the US (and by extension, all of its proxies) are not trustworthy or "agreement capable".
The inability of the US (or NATO or EU) to claim any sort of victory in Ukraine will reduce its prestige and stature in the eyes of the rest of the world and will only hasten the loss of its influence and power and the establishment of the new world order that is not controlled by the US.
You had me at "mulch"
I fear that such a scenario could well come to pass. The upshot would be that the rump Ukraine would be part of NATO, not to mention ready to re-militarize and take another swing in a few years.
Hardly a "win" for Russia.
Well, Nato west of Kiev is better than Nato directly on Russia's borders And Nato probably has no future anyway.
That sure sounds like cope, especially as, had Russia used adequate force in the first place, nobody would be thinking about NATO in Ukraine.
As Simp says above, with the new forms of warfare, it probably wouldn't have been possible to have taken all of Ukraine in one go. The best policy for Russia is probably to grab as much as possible East of the Dnieper and then sit tight while the west disintegrates.
Sounds like more cope. Russia had Kiev nearly surrounded, for one thing, and in spite of poor planning and unrealistic forecasts.
Do you get paid extra for saying "Sounds like cope"? The Russians could have taken Kiev but they would have left themselves exposed to the still-intact and numerically superior Ukrainian army. Russia has made plenty of mistakes but it looks like it's on the path to victory with its slow, steady approach.
'Large new movements are growing in Europe, we’ve seen the wave of conservative and ‘right wing’ candidates sweeping many countries. The citizens are up in arms and angrier than ever, with major protests getting steadily more violent in France, Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, and everywhere in between. Insanely totalitarian new laws are being rolled out everywhere, from the new proposed clampdowns in Ireland, to the crazy anti-free-speech laws in Germany and the EU at large with their DSA.'
Feel this is a little off the mark given the candidates mentioned tend to be born still of the American milieu of NGOs and back scratching funding. Some citizens up at arms in these violent protests are never about directly challenging the system of American domination in Europe but, in fact, most of the time are directly influenced by American politics (Ireland's uprising was filled with people who actively attack other groups that threaten American economic interests). It's important to note the sheer contrast in reaction to the French strikers that storm blackrock HQs (crickets on msm) with the Netherlands/Slovakian election or Ireland riots angrily raging against liberalism by doing what liberals do but a little angrier and less abstract. (breathless coverage about how mad liberals will be if you join these 'scary' movements)
'Based' countries in discussions like this are Poland and Hungary, both of which always seem to come just up to the limit of the leash the Americans have to goad the other Europeans to stay in line lest these up and coming powers gobble up their land in the absence of US support. Both play a good game of being designated fifth column while being huge sponges for US cash (Orban is a Soros man after all which is a fact he tries very hard to obfuscate)
In Britain you can draw a HEAVY contrast between these 'patriot' movements, that have spent the years since 2016 just constantly handing more power to the City of London, and by extension, the Americans, while fixating on imported culture war neuroses, with the movement awakened by Corbyn and the soft coup against him. The RMT union (others too but RMT was the vanguard) has been quietly but consistently linking all ruiling parties to the Americans while demanding economic concessions for normal people. RMT membership is an actual representation of normal western workers and its striking the hostility they have to the 'patriot' movement with members more than once joking to me about how many spycops make up the movement. I mean Eddie Dempsey, the deputy gen sec, even visited Donbas out of solidarity back in 2014 and basically told pearl clutching liberals to fuck off when they try to shame him for it.
Anyway, my point is that I think a lot of the reaction we have to current circumstances that is elevated on msm is itself just a separate means of capture of oppositional energy within western countries and channel it from one wing of American oligarch (centered around finance capital borne out of the 2008 bailouts) to another wing of American oligarchy (centered around industrial capital that split from the flailing vulcans in 2008). The Ukraine war fucked up but its naive to assume that the americans aren't co-opting the reaction to that fuck up to their own end of splitting Europe to justify elevating exploitation of western european 'made men' as the rest of the empire collapses.
Love what you do so don't take this as a screed, just think you'd like a fresh perspective on this. I think studying Danny Casciaro, PROMIS and Poppy Bush helps to demonstrate how much more diffuse and factional the power elite are and that taking an oppositional posture to the msm media is most of the time the actual intended result for the scarier power elite.
Excellent point ....
Anyway, my point is that I think a lot of the reaction we have to current circumstances that is elevated on msm is itself just a separate means of capture of oppositional energy within western countries and channel it from one wing of American oligarch (centered around finance capital borne out of the 2008 bailouts) to another wing of American oligarchy (centered around industrial capital that split from the flailing vulcans in 2008).
I'm so convinced Orban is an American asset it isn't even funny. Hungarian minorities in other EU states make Hungary a great 'foil' to the EU to push forward to show the fairly dull political class in Europe what can happen if they don't go along with the Americans. Suddenly a lot of dormant ethnic questions in central Europe will flair up again. I mean Orban was originally a Soros man which makes his political project being so focused on bashing Soros feel so artifical. Orbanites also host American conservatives constantly which people point to as 'based' (as if american conservatives and liberals don't sing from the same song sheet at the top levels, libs with finance capital and cons with extractive capital)
Also don't use substack often to comment hence the late reply, sorry!
Just a couple of points here:
- Covid and “Climate Change” hoaxes. Are they though? Bodies did pile up during the pandemi and there is an uptick in cases and there is more evidence of the long term effects of Covid. Simplicius' posts are frequently linked by nakedcapitalism.com, which also have a long run series of links and posts about Covid, with Lambert keeping a close tab on things. Covid is definitely not a hoax. What was problematic is how it was handled.
Also, the climate is warming and the warming is caused by humans pumping increasingly large amounts of CO2. It is just physics baby. How it is being addressed, that is also the problem, as with Covid.
-With respect to the reconstruction of USSR. The very well ethnically defined republics, the three Baltic ones, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, each one with a well established language, history, culture, traditions of course refuse to participate. Nationalism is a powerful force. And among those six, Moldova is in fact a ripped part of the bigger Romanian ethnic and political body. The Slavs my congeal together, but the rest will like to stay forever sparate.
Guess again on Moldova, my friend. This is just tired old rhetoric from people who have never spent any time there. Moldovans are a unique people with a unique culture and part of that is a DEEP interconnection with Russia. It's not so much that there are a lot of ethnic Russians in Moldova (although there are some) but that Russian language, culture, food, religious traditions, etc, are a big part of what makes a Moldovan a Moldovan.
Calling them "Romanians" is like stripping out two-thirds of their identity and only keeping that one part. It just cannot and will not happen. Even Onisifor Ghibu back in the 1920s was astonished at just how tenacious Moldovans were at keeping their identity, which is only PART Romanian, but is also part Russian, but is also part Bulgarian too, and even part Ukrainian, and part (uniquely) Moldovan.
If you think I'm dead wrong, then watch the 100% pro-EU pro-Romanian parliament video feed from Chisinau and watch how many times one of the deputies will speak in Russian.
Moldovans are also the people between Prut and Carpathians and Siret/Danube, very resilient and proud of who they are. Also, Romanian language itself is full of Slavic words, from pizada to norod/narod. The fact that some Moldovan parliamentarian moves to Russian is a consequence of the , forced Russification especially more pronounced on people with higher education, and older. Younger people not that much, or peasants spending their lives in their compact Moldavian villages. Spending time a couple of summers in the countryside after 1993 helping with Forest Management planning there, I didnt see much difference between villagers west of the Prut form vilagers east of the Prut. And peasants in areas in Romania with a Hungarian component would use sometimes words and expressions in Hungarian. Doesnt make them less ethnic Romanians.
Just physics baby. I’m an engineer and use a material balance systems to process numbers.
COVID: Correlating all cause mortality to the Covid timeline shows there was not a pandemic that killed large numbers of people.
CO2 : What % of the atmosphere is carbon dioxide? 0.04%. What “physics” do you have that proves CO2 causes global warming?
Take a look at a climate report for the past 10,000 years without omitting any time period. You will see that we are not in some highly escalating global “boiling”.
I’m open to any verifiable information you have but will counter with my information.
A “just physics” answer doesn’t work with me. I need hard and fast numbers
Dead bodies come with death certificate where primary cause of death is noted. This is how we know that many people have died and are dying of Covid. And there was excess mortality in 2020, 2021, etc. Covid was the third main cause of death in Canada in 2022.
.
CO2 with its molecular structure absorbs heat. Methane absorbs 50 times more heat than CO2. So yes, when we dump many gigatones of CO2 in the atmosphere and we are at the point that we almost doubled the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere compared to 50 years ago, we have a problem, that is not linear. And yeah, the fact that alpine glaciers are almost gone, that rivers dont freeze over the winter as they used to, that in fact rivers are sometimes even dead in the summer, is not something of a signal for you.
You seem to be unaware that at least in the US, there was a tick box added to the standard death cert to indicate if the person was CV positive (according to a very questionable test, which had no way to determine if a CV infection was present before or after entering the medical facility). An extra $30k+ was awarded to the facility if that box was checked. Result ... huge overcount ...
Having CV at death and having CV as the primary cause of death are two different things.
People either don’t want to know these things or are gaslit by the msm propaganda. It is a hard one to grasp that our government would be involved.
Tnx , there are so many who dont have the time and concern to find this ou5 on their own
But, but, ... they said so on MSM ... (/Eye roll)
I don't know about US much, but I have access to all health data of individuals in my area, including extracts (complete) from the deathfile, due to my work. And no, I wouldnt cast doubt on the workforce that produces these datasets.
We all know that it's water vapour that contributes to the highest amount of greenhouse effect
The bane of the modern mind is computer "modelling" and then claiming that this modelling is "physics" or "science." Science is empirical and based upon the real world: not a garbage in; garbage out computer model with limited and defective algorithms.
Re: COVID
COVID is not a hoax, but it is a disease that primarily kills old people.
What was a clear hoax were: 1) the vaccines would limit COVID transmission (100% false) 2) the vaccines would reduce the chance of a vaccinated getting COVID (100% false) 3) mass vaccination would be good for everyone, overall (100% false)
Climate Change
More CO2 leads to more warming, but it does not lead to proportionately more warming. Its just physics, baby. There are probably not enough fossil fuels, accessible, for humans to burn to generate enough extra CO2 for another doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels from today.
What is NOT physics is where the scammery begins: what is the actual termperature response to CO2 increases? What are the economic impacts of higher temperature? Are the economic impacts net positive or negative? How much positive or negative? Does this justify truly enormous financial expenditures?
We almost doubled the CO2 in 50 years. With more people now and higher consumption, you think we cannot achieve another doubling, but even faster? What are the impacts? drought and failed crops, and ultimately famine and death. When the Oghalala goes dry in the midwest, there won't be enough rain to sustain US staple agriculture production...
No, I don’t.
Among other things, the doubling of CO2 levels from the past to today was accomplished over 150 years - from ~200 to 400. Doubling from today doesn’t mean from 400 to 600, it means from 400 to 800. Or in other words twice more fossil fuels have the be burnt in the next decade or two than in the entire 150 years to date. Not seeing either the reserves or the consumption level.
As for drought and what not: the IPCC itself says the drought, famine, hurricane etc impacts from climate change to date are minimal to not detectable. Ditto deaths due to climate: they are decreasing not increasing.
The scammery of the climate doomsayers keep moving forward further and further into the future.
Ice free Arctic? Fail
No snow in England? Fail
The list of failed climate doom predictions is literally hundreds and thousands of lines long.
I don’t have any problem whatsoever to conserve or waste less, but the pronouncements of doom are utter bollocks.
IPCC is ultimately toning down any results: https://mailchi.mp/caa/to-understand-and-protect-the-home-planet
James Hansen is quite reputable in the field.
Temperatures are rising.
Glaciers have melted on high elevations
The Arctic is not fully free but is freer and freer, otherwise the Russians wouldnt built and legislate pasage through north and Americans wouldn't be gnashing their teeth in impotence and fury.
The climate change is associated with a lot of instability and oscillations, which were predicted, but the trend is there and the list of climate predictions, at least those vetted and revetted that have failed is realy not long.
As for droughts, as I said, IPCC is partly scientific and partly politic and the politics always trump.
"IPCC is ultimately toning down any results"
IPCC is doing no such thing.
Among other things, the summary reports - which all the lazy people read - bear little resemblance to the details in the long rest of the report.
I don't consider Hansen to be the least bit credible as a scientist albeit he is a fine advocate.
The Arctic being freer are freer - and so what? The melting ice is also revealing Viking settlements from the last warm period - long before mass fossil fuel burning.
Nor is your assertion about "instability and oscillations, which were predicted" accurate. I've been following this nonsense for 30 years and know exactly what was predicted.
If there is hot weather, it is climate change.
If there is cold weather, it is climate change.
If there is a drought, it is climate change.
If there is a flood, it is climate change.
So in other words, if anything happens anywhere for any reason, it is climate change.
Yet the reality is that the supposed warming of 1.5 degrees to date and 3 to 5 degrees in the next 100 years is far, far less than the change of temperature in any single day from midnight to midnight.
The reality is that fewer and fewer people have been dying every year from climate OR weather related occurrences. The predictor isn't temperature - it is wealth.
The IPCC is garbage because it refuses to consider any possible positive outcomes of CO2 emissions or warming - for example - the well documented greening of the planet from CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are also responsible for a significant percentage of food production increases.
So yes, temperatures are increasing but it is neither clear that this is really a catastrophe nor that said temperature increases are avoidable no matter what the West's idiots want.
Wealth cannot bring water if there isn't...
Also: please take into consideration that the Climate is ALWAYS changing! The Dust Bowl, the Little Ice Age, The Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, etc. are proven facts.
We are still in the process of moving from a cold period (the Little Ice Age) to a new Warm Period. Which is not a bad thing, actually.
We live in a dynamic universe. We are talking here about climate forcing due to human activities.
Show the receipts
For people with cognitive dissonance, no amount of receipts will suffice.
My original post was for Simplicius who can do research, but obviously hasn't on the field of covid and climate. Also, he might make certain assertions just to play on his readership...
Im an old person ….Its only sick people tha the covid cold can kill …. Not old people per se …we are smart enuf to get this far, donyou think wem would let a cold take us down?
It isn't just sick people.
The mortality numbers for people over 70 are really high. A sick 70 year old is much worse than a healthy 70 year old, but the chance for the healthy 70 year old to die from COVID is basically 100 times greater than a healthy 50 year old.
It is all relative.
There are some major variations though - and it does seem to relate to immune system variation. It isn't just "strength" of immune system because the mortality numbers in Asia - everywhere in Asia and across all age demographics, health variations etc - are far less than in the US or Europe. It seems very possible that there are some non-COVID coronaviruses in Asia that confer some partial benefit.
But yes - getting COVID isn't an automatic death sentence for old people.
What is really scary are some of the anecdotes coming out from doctors: one guy said he had seen 5 cases of galloping cancer in 20 years of practice, but saw 2 cases just in the past year. Both were 5x vaccinated+boosters each and also had gotten COVID at least 5 or 6 times each (but obviously non lethal). He said that you generally only see galloping cancers when there is something seriously wrong with the immune system.
So interesting times going forward for everyone.
"Also, the climate is warming and the warming is caused by humans pumping increasingly large amounts of CO2."
The former may be true but not for the last several years. The latter is far from proven. Else there would be a Carbon Index that can tell us how much temperature will rise for a given amount of atmospheric CO2.
They can't even model the clouds/water vapor in the atmosphere, both a potent warmer and cooler of the atmosphere, with their supercomputer models. That's at least a decade off.
Anyway back to your simplistic AGW propoganda, ...