Welcome back all, part 1 of the mailbag answers is ready. It’s long enough on its own, so let’s dispense with the pleasantries and get right to it. Note: these are not in order of posting, so if you don’t see your question, it will be answered in the upcoming Parts later this week.
Here's a bit of MSN truth telling on Ukraine. The fall has definately begun methinks.
Let's be clear. NATO/Collective West/Hegemon, etc. IS Zionism. That means the Samson option. Let's not forget that.
Nice write up. Thanks!
29 Nov 2023 FT Ukraine Popularity Poll
Today we are blessed with two more articles – following the recent ‘pivot’ to highlighting terrorism en continue: both are of the pinprick variety : perhaps the Gaza war, ’civilisational’, involving an out of control proxy and after a very good start still somewhat in the balance; consequently The Inner Party has not quite determined the General Directive
Finland to close all land borders with Russia after migrant influx
This looks like an ongoing effort to expand a pinprick into the beloved ‘civilisational’
“Earlier this month, Finland closed its seven other checkpoints with Russia along their 1,340km border, claiming Moscow could be using the migrant traffic as cover to smuggle soldiers and criminals into the EU.
Finland’s interior ministry said the previous closures had failed to stop the traffic and the risk of more migrants attempting to cross Finland’s land borders posed “a serious threat to national security and public order”.
Ukraine claims wife of country’s military intelligence chief was poisoned
The revival of the Russians are terrorists line, but merely an anecdote so far
Regarding question #2
Bolsheviks DID NOT have maximalist goal of conquering the World. This is Red Scare propaganda. The idea as far as Russian Empire goes was “peace without concessions and retributions” and what they naively imagined is that it will inspire chain reaction of popular revolutions seeking similar end to WWI.
And just as well they weren’t “helped” by Germans, that was propaganda line taken by provisional government. Maximum help from Germans Lenin received was free pass through German territory in sealed train car. You see, German government hated communists just as much as any contemporary government and they had enough problems with them in Germany to play with fire too much. Lenin in turn was too politically smart (at least tactically, I really have bad opinion on his ability to make strategic political decisions) to accept too much help from enemy of his country.
RE #14 wither the USA
The US is approaching an inflection point, a watershed moment that will be a break with much of the past... but nobody really knows the details. It will certainly be messy, but whatever comes out the other side won't be a a brand new invention, cut from whole cloth, it will be forged in large part out of the issues we are fighting for right now.
If you plan on staying, focus your efforts on what you want to build, not solely in terms of what you oppose. Whatever comes through will draw upon what we are all doing now.
Certain, Logical, Massively well informed, cultured; Excellence! Big, Big Thanks!!
"Well, maybe in a general sense the Bolsheviks had such maximalist goals, but in the immediate sense they had deals with Germany to get Russia out of the war, which is the only reason they were allowed to come to power by German interests who facilitated and funded them for that purpose."
Bolsheviks didn't have any deals with Germany before the revolution. There are also no traces of them getting money from Germany. Parvus really was a German agent, but Lenin was clever enough either not to meet him, or meet him in the presence of witnesses. Parvus was very much disliked among Bolsheviks after cheating Gorky (he stole all the money after he had organized staging of Gorky's plays in Europe).
For those who are interested and know Russian (I suppose, auto-translation is possible, but not sure about the quality), I'd recommend a thorough research by Gennady Sobolev: http://militera.lib.ru/research/sobolev_gl/index.html. He investigates all possible cases when the Bolsheviks could get money from Germany, and proves (based upon a wide range of documents) that this either didn't happen or possibility was low.
P.S. There is also no doubt, that Germany was ready to help anybody who could get Russia out of WW1. They were spending money, but it is not clear how exactly it was spent.
P.P.S. There is one proven case of the Bolsheviks getting money from Germany. In 1917 Karl Moor (Swiss social democrat, who was also a German agent) gave money for organization of the 3d Zimmerwald conference.
Hey Simp, another excellent subscriber mailbag! I want to add my own 2cents regarding to the “elites” that control the worlds. In my opinion, they don’t actually control the world, at least not as much as they used to. These elite financiers had their powers curtailed and limited since the Great Depression and right to the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system. They only managed to make a comeback after the US accidentally started the Fiat period by delinking their USD from gold, which granted financiers unprecedented amount of power.
But even then, their influence still has limits even at its peak. They can’t influence on the part of the world in which they don’t have formal presence aka the majority of the world. You could argue that they control the world by having the influence over the most important regions, which was true to some extent but we know that’s no longer the case with recent events unfolding in the world. My point here is that while it’s important to acknowledge their existence and their potential influence, it is also better to realized that they are not omnipotent. They are still people in which there are many intermediate power broker that they have to exercise their influence through and as the old order broken down, the more dysfunctional it become. Not to mention that not a few of them drink their Kool-aid too much they begin to see their own propaganda as the truth itself.
What about the weather peculiarity ? Just a usual beginning of the winter , than for one day a huge snow storm without a build up to it prior . Than returned very fast, to normal balanced early winter . The most heavily effected area was Crimea and Dombass . God of weather Zeus or ................?
Superb work as usual Mr Simplicius!
An anecdotal contribution from my side: i live in a nice corner of Spain were many well to do Ukrainians chose to flee at the start of the war. Back then you could easily spot expensive SUVs with Ukrainian license plates on the streets (especially in the areas close to the beach...). The Spanish gov made it mandatory to register the refugees' Ukrainian cars when their stay was longer than 6 months. This means that by latest in summer 2023, all Ukr license plates from the first refugee wave have been swapped by Spanish ones.
This has made easy to spot that a new wave of Ukrainians has been arriving, together with their expensive cars, since ca 2 months ago.
We could infer from this observation that more and more wealthy & well connected Ukrainians -that were until now still living in UKR - are noticing that the situation is getting desperate and are moving out.
As for Question no. 4: i would like to emphasize the power that the narrative managers still have over most of the western public. They were able to brush aside the Afghan debacle and will definitely do it again in Ukraine. Only, this time they will claim victory by the forces of Order and Civilization because, you know, this time we could stop the marauding Russians at the Polish border so that they were not able to reach Berlin again.
Perhaps this will be addressed next time, but all of the talk about a coup in Kiev focuses on Zaluzhny. Surely Budanov is more likely? He was apparently once slated for a ministerial post and must have been disappointed not to get it. His photos often show him in a smarter uniform than Zaluzhny or a sharper suit than Zelensky, looking more professional than either. He's been out of the headlines for a while but is now getting sympathetic write-ups again over a supposed assassination attempt on his wife (nothing that could be held against him for ambition). What do you think - is he the most likely alternative to Zelensky?
Let me give a "glass half full" assessment of Russia's current position in the SMO. What are Russia's war aims? Demilitarize Ukraine and remove neo-Nazis from influence in Ukraine. Also gain a neutral Ukraine which recognizes the Russian speaking areas of the former Ukraine as part of the RF. Russia does not need to capture Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa to gain these aims. (I think they could even fiddle with the borders a little and find new capitals for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.) That would mean clearing Luhansk and Donetsk I think. These goals are not so far off. I agree the AFU should not be underrated (they're Russians after all - and nobody has ever enjoyed fighting Russians even if you win) but it appears that this "not one step back" strategy demanded by Zelensky gives Russia a golden opportunity to employ its growing firepower advantage to mulch Ukrainian units - Avdiivka could turn into another Bakhmut - ditto the areas in the north, east of the Oskil. It is essential that Russia gain several more obvious victories - something to impress the West and Kiev. This can be done. (Doesn't anyone else think that Russia has plans to "turn out the lights" in urban Ukraine and cripple the transport system with massive missile strikes?) And if Russia comes out of this war with a clear "win" Putin and Russia will both gain great prestige and also can settle down to make Russia into a very rich country. And I doubt many Russian citizens will care if Russian tanks don't roll up to the Polish border.
Would the West accept this. Any "win" for Russia would obviously be a loss for NATO. But it wouldn't break the bank if Russia pursues basic and moderate war aims. And the US can always use the Senator George Aiken excuse for agreeing to a pace agreeable to Russia. In 1968 Aiken advised the American government to declare victory in Vietnam and bring the troops home. The Aiken line works better for Ukraine. The West could say that plucky Ukraine - with indispensable NATO aid - prevented Russia from conquering the whole country. Heck - 75% of Ukrainian territory is still there. (It wouldn't matter that originally Putin had no intention of taking the whole of Ukraine.) And if it's forced to agree to neutrality, who knows what things will look like ten years from now? But what about Ukraine? What if they won't agree to a peace? Well, let's not forget the West pays for Ukraine's soldiers, the bullets, and basically everything required to keep their country from sinking into Haiti like squalor. If we tell Ukraine they must make peace (let them dream about a better future - it won't happen) they will make peace. Clausewitz reminds us that there is a peace party in every warring country and that it grows larger the closer peace gets. Does anyone really think that if the guns go silent that the Ukrainian people - or the population of the EU - will be eager to have another shoot-out with Russia. I don't think so.
Putin is not a natural war leader - he'd cut a deal. I think it very possible that there are quiet preliminary "chats" between the West and Russia going on now. Let Russia pound Ukraine two or three times in the Donets Basin - without threatening a move on Kiev, or the Polish border - I can see those "chats" turning into talks. There's a sea change going on in the way the press is treating the SMO in the American press - and I'd guess the same is true in the EU. If Ukraine suffers some defensive defeats on top of the collapse of their offensive, the West will notice. Then the question will be - hold your nose and make a peace worthy of Metternich - or try to get your country ready for direct intervention and risk WWIII. I'd guess the West would give peace a chance. Let's hope so.
'Large new movements are growing in Europe, we’ve seen the wave of conservative and ‘right wing’ candidates sweeping many countries. The citizens are up in arms and angrier than ever, with major protests getting steadily more violent in France, Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, and everywhere in between. Insanely totalitarian new laws are being rolled out everywhere, from the new proposed clampdowns in Ireland, to the crazy anti-free-speech laws in Germany and the EU at large with their DSA.'
Feel this is a little off the mark given the candidates mentioned tend to be born still of the American milieu of NGOs and back scratching funding. Some citizens up at arms in these violent protests are never about directly challenging the system of American domination in Europe but, in fact, most of the time are directly influenced by American politics (Ireland's uprising was filled with people who actively attack other groups that threaten American economic interests). It's important to note the sheer contrast in reaction to the French strikers that storm blackrock HQs (crickets on msm) with the Netherlands/Slovakian election or Ireland riots angrily raging against liberalism by doing what liberals do but a little angrier and less abstract. (breathless coverage about how mad liberals will be if you join these 'scary' movements)
'Based' countries in discussions like this are Poland and Hungary, both of which always seem to come just up to the limit of the leash the Americans have to goad the other Europeans to stay in line lest these up and coming powers gobble up their land in the absence of US support. Both play a good game of being designated fifth column while being huge sponges for US cash (Orban is a Soros man after all which is a fact he tries very hard to obfuscate)
In Britain you can draw a HEAVY contrast between these 'patriot' movements, that have spent the years since 2016 just constantly handing more power to the City of London, and by extension, the Americans, while fixating on imported culture war neuroses, with the movement awakened by Corbyn and the soft coup against him. The RMT union (others too but RMT was the vanguard) has been quietly but consistently linking all ruiling parties to the Americans while demanding economic concessions for normal people. RMT membership is an actual representation of normal western workers and its striking the hostility they have to the 'patriot' movement with members more than once joking to me about how many spycops make up the movement. I mean Eddie Dempsey, the deputy gen sec, even visited Donbas out of solidarity back in 2014 and basically told pearl clutching liberals to fuck off when they try to shame him for it.
Anyway, my point is that I think a lot of the reaction we have to current circumstances that is elevated on msm is itself just a separate means of capture of oppositional energy within western countries and channel it from one wing of American oligarch (centered around finance capital borne out of the 2008 bailouts) to another wing of American oligarchy (centered around industrial capital that split from the flailing vulcans in 2008). The Ukraine war fucked up but its naive to assume that the americans aren't co-opting the reaction to that fuck up to their own end of splitting Europe to justify elevating exploitation of western european 'made men' as the rest of the empire collapses.
Love what you do so don't take this as a screed, just think you'd like a fresh perspective on this. I think studying Danny Casciaro, PROMIS and Poppy Bush helps to demonstrate how much more diffuse and factional the power elite are and that taking an oppositional posture to the msm media is most of the time the actual intended result for the scarier power elite.
Just a couple of points here:
- Covid and “Climate Change” hoaxes. Are they though? Bodies did pile up during the pandemi and there is an uptick in cases and there is more evidence of the long term effects of Covid. Simplicius' posts are frequently linked by nakedcapitalism.com, which also have a long run series of links and posts about Covid, with Lambert keeping a close tab on things. Covid is definitely not a hoax. What was problematic is how it was handled.
Also, the climate is warming and the warming is caused by humans pumping increasingly large amounts of CO2. It is just physics baby. How it is being addressed, that is also the problem, as with Covid.
-With respect to the reconstruction of USSR. The very well ethnically defined republics, the three Baltic ones, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, each one with a well established language, history, culture, traditions of course refuse to participate. Nationalism is a powerful force. And among those six, Moldova is in fact a ripped part of the bigger Romanian ethnic and political body. The Slavs my congeal together, but the rest will like to stay forever sparate.