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Sep 29, 2023·edited Sep 29, 2023

What is the point of asking to submit a question if you never answer? If you want to do cherry picking that's fine, but I won't bother to submit a question to you again. If you said you'd answer questions of the paid subscribers, answer, otherwise, what's the point.

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In “Ukraine Bloody War: The Great Plundering” I feel compelled to compliment Simplicius' always brilliant, detailed work with my own take—a zoomed-out look at the colossal pillage by the Biden's criminal regime. In their criminal corruption lies the greatest danger for our future.

https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/ukraine-bloody-war-the-great-plundering

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Italy did conquer Ethiopia in a brilliant military operation during only seven months, greatly disappointing Chamberlain who thought they would be bogged down 30 years. After our army entered Addis Abeba and the war was ended, the King of Italy was proclaimed Emperor of Ethiopia. The territories were lost only because the USA were on the other side of Italy in WW2.

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Regarding the last question, and why Russia has been unable [it seems] to create a quicker victory, I would point to many of my comments here and elsewhere.

The facts are not completely clear but it is certain that the UAF had a much larger military than the RF [when mobilised] in terms of troops committed in theatre. In Feb 22 the UAF had c 250K regular troops and c 450K mobilisable reserves, plus another 100K of armed paramilitaries. A further 100K almost immediately volunteered from civilian life and there have been on-going waves of mobilisation. It is certainly the case that many more than 1 million men have passed through the ranks of the UAF even if at no stage it could boast an establishment of that figure. The UAF has nearly 100 combat brigades of whom over 80 are manouvre units.

Russia (and its various allies etc) probably started the SMO with less than 250K men, half of who maybe RF regulars.

Numbers of this magnitude help explain why the UAF has been able to sustain what most here believe are high losses and in excess of those of the RF. There has been much lively debate on the levels of losses but I personally think the UAF has [on average] sufferred c 1,000 per day so by now c 600,000 of who a disproportionate number have been permenantly lost as opposed to wounded and returned to the fighting. I'd put Russian losses at a fraction of this but maybe 150,000 overall. If RF losses have been this sort of number (ie c 40,000 dead, the rest WIA) then it helps explain why the "missing reserves" are not being used. They have been - simply as replacements.

The Ukraine had 8 years to train and also to create fortifications. It has benefited from western ISR, financial support, "volunteers" and of course huge arms shipments and not so clandestine assistance with planning from NATO "advisors". Alas it has had motivated troops, strong on Nationalism and anti-Russian sentiment - at times tending towards ouright Nazi views amongst key units and personnel.

Rather than poor plucky little Ukraine, Ukraine had one of the largest armed forces in the world in Feb 22 and has been actively supported by the most powerful military alliance in the world. So Russia has in fact done pretty well to demolish this military behemoth with a much smaller force, using firepower not flesh and blood. However the UAF will take a lot of killing and I am uncertain as to whether it is as close to collapse as many (eg Ritter, MacGregor) believe. Shoigu [I think] said recently he expects the SMO to end in 2025.

Anyway, it is likely on my figures and analysis that the RF is still out numbered in manpower terms and hence an offensive against fortified lines - even with a much reduced and less effective UAF - might prove too risky. The UAF is still obliging by making dumb attacks though the onset of the Raputitsa will probably further slow down the pace of operations. I expect Russia to keep up the pressure in the winter.

At some point the UAF will collapse or simply lose its ability to continue - a combination of losses, lack of ammo and equipment and failing morale. When that point arrives we will know it. We don't seem to be there yet.

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Thank you for your ongoing hard work and insights.

Respectfully, I think that the BRICS grouping already has a little more power than you give it credit for.

This is because the group controls so many key commodities that are in high demand globally. It therefore has the power to control access to & distribution of those conmodities.

For example, it can trade commodities with other BRICS members on favourable terms/discounted prices, vis a vis non-members. BRICS nations in this way gain access to key commodities they need, at a lower price than non-BRICS nations. Conversely non-members get hit with very high prices, if they get access to the commodities they need at all.

BRICS also has the power to damage non-BRICS economies that rely on exporting commodities. A classic example is Australia - its economy relies on its exports of commodities to China. If China was to substitute that trade entirely or to even replace / reduce select Australian imports with BRICS imports of the same commodity, it would have an immediate and very significant impact on the Australian economy.

Actually, for countries like Australia it's potentially a double whammy - there's a risk that nations wanting to join BRICS might decide to replace the commodities they buy from Australia, with the commodities of BRICS nations instead. A good example is Indonesia, a major purchaser of Australian wheat.

I note that there is already a massive potential for Russia to enter new markets (eg S E Asia) via BRICS. Ditto, Brazil. In fact, I think Russia may have already started approaching non-BRICS nations aspiring to be members, with trade proposals.

So while I agree that a currency would definitely turbocharge the BRICS grouping, I don't agree that BRICS right now is as powerless as you describe. It will be interesting to see what happens.

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The Alubuga would indeed be a game changer, back in the '80's all our comms gear and offensive systems inside armor in Germany was so damn heavy due to EMP shielding. From looking at what I see now a weapon like that could change the war in days. Sending any enemy back to pre-1850's would be slaughter.

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Many thanks for mentioning RealReporter. I was not aware, but have now watched 2 of his vids (incl. the mentioned above), and they are great. I am following him now.

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Response to Simplicius "Subscriber Mailbag Answers - 9/29/23 [Part 3]":

" It’s typically poor minorities from the American south that join the military at this point."

Go back to the Iraq war in 1993. Read the obituaries from the papers of that period. Almost every single dead US soldier has a Spanish surname. They were recruiting Mexican-Americans who wanted a green card by the thousands. It was extremely noticeable both in obituaries and in interviews with soldiers at the front.

It's the same way the Russians started the SMO by relying on the Donbass militias, Wagner, the Volunteer Battalions, the Chechens and the Rosqvardia - spare the real soldiers for use when and where they're really needed. It's a cold-blooded, but smart decision. Of course, in the case of the US it was simply racist.

As for Russia in western Ukraine, yes, they will take it. They need a Military District there to counter the West's Aegis Ashore threats as well as conventional land threats. Russia has been threatened repeatedly by wars with the West and they're going to make sure - by building Military Districts from the Black Sea to the Arctic - that it never happens again. This is the whole purpose of the SMO, assuming Russia can't cause NATO to self-destruct - and the Russians are smart enough not to assume that will work, so they constructed the SMO to have Parts A and B.

Part A was Putin's and Lavrov's plan:, scare Kiev into negotiating and then becoming neutral and de-militarized and then negotiate with NATO over the Aergis Ashore facilities. That was a "kick the can down the road" plan. The Russian General Staff undoubtedly told them, "Boss, that ain't good enough. We still need a Plan B in case Plan A doesn't work." Plan B is take Ukraine off the board completely, including taking over the whole country, removing the Kiev regime, and setting up those MDs. This solves a LOT of Russia's problems: it1) protects Donbass, 2) eliminates the Nazis, 3) eliminates NATO involvement in Ukraine (no rump state bullshit), and 4) enables direct countering of NATO in Poland and Romania.

Well, they tried Plan A, and of course it failed. By summer, I'm sure Putin decided Plan B was inevitable. That's when the decision to mobilize was made. I don't think Putin will ever be convinced to go back to Plan A. If he does, well, he's an idiot. And I don't see Putin as an idiot.

I agree about the unlikelihood of an insurgency. First, because a Military District is a lot tougher target than some "peacekeepers". Second, because Ukraine tried that at the behest of the CIA from the late 40's to the early 1950's and lost 200,000 Ukrainians doing it. Third, because as you say, Russia has seen Chechnya and Syria, been there, done that and know how to do it now. Fourth, because most of the nationalists in western Ukraine will be tracked down, detained and deported once the Russian police and intelligence services flood into western Ukraine after the military locks down the Polish and Romanian borders. Fifth, because trying a rural insurgency in this age of drones and thermal imaging will get you killed, and trying an urban insurgency will get you...Chechens and Wagner. And sixth because Ukrainians are "Europeans" - they aren't a tribal society where babies are born with AK-47s in their cribs and get RPG-7s as high school graduation gifts, like Iraq and Afghanistan. :-)

As for artillery shells, hell, that's easy. Just assume the Russians are going to make SURE they have enough if they have to buy ten million more from North Korea. Russia has the money and North Korea could use the money. Or Russia can put the money into more factories. It's a non-issue. Same with the tanks - they have more than enough mothballed to bulldoze Ukraine, upgraded or not. If Macgregor is right, they have 1,500 ready to go right now while Ukraine has what?

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As a young socialist in the Labour Party, I was told, 'the only good Nazi is a dead Nazi'. It's horrifying how many Ukraine soldiers are Dying in this war on behalf of Western Elites. But the small consolation is that a small %age are Nazis, and they are getting eliminated for ever.

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In question 43 you mention Russia capturing Crimea, Odessa..

What makes you think Russia will go for Odessa?

The reason I am asking is that Russia pretends to be respecting the UN charter, and the SMO is to help the Donbass oblasts. One may agree or disagree, but at least there is an argument and a reasoning showing that the SMO is a lawful entreprise.

There is however no such argument to be made for going to Odessa, and taking Odessa - whatever its justification from an historical or strategical point of view - is just an invasion like US and NATO likes to do, and takes away a (big) part of the clout Russia currently has with countries 'of the jungle'.

Things may change in the future, but I was curious to know why you mention now that Russia could take Odessa.

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About Question #35: Just to add a little to what @simplicius76 has already said. Ethiopia has always held a fascination for Russia and that dates all the way back to early 1700s when Peter the Great adopted and treated as his own son a freed black slave called Abram Petrovich Gannibal.

This adopted African son of Czar Peter would take on a military career, train as an officer in a French Military Engineering School and eventual rise to the rank of General-In-Chief in the Imperial Russian Army and so would his own son too, Ivan Gannibal who was a commander in one of the Russo-Ottoman Wars of the 1700s . More importantly, Gannibal is the maternal great-grandfather of Alexander Puskhin, one of Russia's most revered poet.

The key thing to understand is that most Russians thought Gannibal was of ETHIOPIAN descent, but modern research shows this not to be case as I wrote several months ago:

https://sharpfocusafrica.substack.com/p/the-afro-russian-army-general-abram

Russians helped Ethiopia to repel two Italian invasions partly because of the fascination with Gannibal-Pushkin apparent "family connections" to the African country and partly because it was a fellow Orthodox Christian nation.

Modern day Ethiopia is friendly both to the West and to Russia. This is a legacy of the fact that Western nations (UK, USA) did help the country during a devastating famine that occurred in the middle of Ethiopian Civil War (1974-1991), which killed 1.5 million people.

Like in many cases in Africa, the civil war was trigged by a military coup in September 1974, which led to the dissolution of the 704-year-old Ethiopian Empire and its replacement with a Marxist-Leninist state. Disaffected Marxist renegades picked up arms and fought soldiers of that Marxist state.

Many of the current ruling elites of Ethiopia today were once Marxist rebels. After the civil war ended in 1991, and USSR collapsed, and Eritrea was allowed to break away, the Ethiopian rebels who seized national power, jettisoned their Marxist beliefs and began to follow market economics.

These rebels-turned-national leaders formed close bonds with the Western world that provided loads of food to feed the starving during the famines of the 1980s. Boris Yeltsin's Russia was too preoccupied with its own problems to even pick up the diplomatic ties that the Soviets had with various African states.

The current conflict in Ethiopia---which AU mediators have managed to freeze--is simply a fall out of change in the configuration of power in the country. The Marxist rebels that came to power were led by ethnic Tigray people. Long time leader of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, who died in 2012, was ethnic Tigray.

Despite being an ethnic minority, Tigrays have been running the country since 1991 through the formerly marxist Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

Retired Lieutenant-Colonel Abiy Ahmed Ali is from the ethnic Oromo majority of Ethiopia, which had not been in power for ages. He rode to power through the Tigray-dominated EPRDF. As an elected Prime Minister, he relied on Tigrays who also formed the backbone of the post-1991 Ethiopian Armed Forces.

And then he did something that the Tigrays will consider to be a betrayal. He dissolved the EPRDF dominated by Tigrays and distanced himself from its "ethnic federalism" policy, which stipulates that autonomous provinces must be created based on territories inhabited by each of Ethiopia's ethnic groups. Problem is that certain territories are not 100% inhabited by one ethno-linguistic group so that has led to many problems.

Without going into too much details, the Tigrays refused to join the new Prosperity Party, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali formed and that caused the Tigray War (2020-2022). The collective West has always had good relations with EPRDF, especially when it was controlled by the now deceased Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The Tigray ruling elites ran EPRDF, therefore the US backed them.

For Russia and China, it was quite simple. They supported the Ethiopian state. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali represents that state. End of story.

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Sep 29, 2023·edited Sep 29, 2023

Thank you for yet another superb analysis and commentary. Truly, you are a peerless source for information about this war.

A couple of comments:

1) Anyone wanting to know more about the war in Ethiopia, should read this from a guy who actually lives there:

https://rsonderriis.substack.com/p/getting-ethiopia-dead-wrong

It's long, but it'll answer most of your questions. In a nutshell, "the West" generally supported/supports the Abiy government (elected in 2019) and wants a stable Ethiopia, but there's a hardcore "swamp monster" faction of the US State Dept (as well as a few out-and-out lunatics in Belgium) who prefer the TPLF, for several reasons: long-standing ties to the TPLF and because the TPLF are perceived as "dictators we can trust" in the classical American strategy. Also, the TPLF are just really really good at social media propaganda whereas the Abiy government is kinda clumsy at it (sort of like Ukraine's CIPRO versus the stodgy Russian MoD).

Secondarily, the psychopath Dr. Tedros (responsible himself for at least 10k dead children in Ethiopia), current head of the WHO, is a former TPLF official and virulently hates the Ethiopian government. Tedros, of course, is a golden boy because of Covid, so he's bulletproof. The West literally had to change the rules to re-elect Tedros as S-G of the WHO because ordinarily, your country of citizenship had to sponsor you but Addis Ababa fucking hates him, so it was Britain and America who finagled things to get Tedros re-elected.

1b) Ethiopia is the second-most populous black African nation on the planet and has a booming economy. It's also home to a lot of prestigious institutions like the African Union and AfDB (and Ethiopia will be a BRICS member next year). Yet most Westerners are still mired in images from the 80s of Ethiopia as a poor, starving nation. In reality, the capital has a huge metro system and has factories making cars (not counting the future deal with Lada), building the world's largest HPP (called the GERD), etc. In other words, there is a SERIOUS mismatch between how Ethiopia is perceived by Westerners and reality on the ground.

Ethiopia state TV has both a website and channel on Youtube with news in English - I recommend anyone interested should check it out:

https://www.ena.et/web/eng

2) The only real shortage most Russians are facing now is in car parts and second-hand cars. For a variety of reasons, Russia imported most of its car parts from abroad prior to the SMO. However, that's being ameliorated at the moment, and China's really stepped up its export of (especially used) cars to Russia.

3) As for Putin's popularity, all one needs to do is check the "approval rating" of literally any Western leader in the pro-Ukrainian camp. Biden? Trudeau? Sunak? Macron? Scholz? Even Kishida = they are ALL far less than 50%. Even the smaller countries like Lithuania or Moldova or Estonia and Romania have deeply unpopular leaders. Long story short = the so-called "dictators" (Lukashenko, Putin, Petro, Bukele, et al) and are GENUINELY representing their countries while the West is autocratic as hell.

4) If Milei wins the election as president of Argentina, he's going to completely ditch the peso and straight up switch to the American dollar. I don't know why this isn't better known as he's been completely open about it. And even if there is ever a BRICS currency, it will be like the OP said, for cross-border settlements, not day-to-day currency for regular folks.

https://www.aier.org/article/how-crazy-do-you-have-to-be-to-support-dollarization/

5) In the 1980s, life sucked in Russia (and everywhere else in the Soviet Union), and everyone dreamed of "the good life, like in the West" with blue jeans and hamburgers. Then it arrived, and wasn't so good, but it's taken a while for a lot of Russians to cotton onto the fact that life in Russia COULD be as good as or better than the West (what an American would call "imposter syndrome.") What can I say? Propaganda is powerful stuff. The SMO has really opened a lot of people's eyes in Russia.

6) Doesn't get much traction in the Western news, but the USA (as well as Britain and Germany) are losing ground big-time around the world. The PM of the Solomon Islands just refused to meet Biden, Germany is about to enact MAJOR budget cuts for the first time in forever, and Sweden, which is run by the most hardcore "woke" folks of all time, just announced it's both cutting its climate change budget AND increasing CO2 emissions next year. The UK meanwhile has cut its foreign aid budget to almost zero (in order to host refugees in-country), meaning a hell of a lot of Commonwealth countries are getting no aid at all anymore. Barbados already ditched the monarchy and Jamaica is likely to do so as well, soon. Canada, as well, is imploding mostly over the cost of living crisis (and the Nazigate thing, plus the discovery that all those "graves" of murdered natives are fake), and Australians are dancing in the street over the resignation of Dan Andrews plus the fact that the "Voice" referendum (the darling project of the Albense gov't) is almost certainly going to fail.

In other words, the "battlefield" isn't just going on in Ukraine. The West is losing across nearly every other ideological "field of battle" against a rising tide of countries sick and tired of being dictated to (or bribed with aid money/military dominance). And let's not forget that the economies of Europe are imploding as we speak.

7) Anyone who thinks "the Jews" are a monolithic group is an idiot. There are the Ashkenazi ("white" jews) versus the Sephardim ("African/Arab" jews), the "European" Jews vs the Russian/Soviet Jews, and the religious versus the agnostic Jews. And even amidst the religious Jews, there are huge divisions between the Orthodox and the Chasid/Hasid, with many Hasid being OPENLY anti-Zionist. Inside Israel, there are also "strong state" supporters versus "federalization" supporters, which led to massive street protests in recent months.

Put three Jews in a room, and you'll get three different opinions on literally any topic. Shit, and that's not even counting the (American) Black Jews, the Samaritans, the "Jews for Jesus" camp, and the American Jews who loathe the ADL (like Laura Loomer).

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“That’s not to even mention the fact that it was actually a Masonic revolution which overthrew the Tsar in February 1917, Kerensky being one of the highest ranking Masons in the country (Secretary General of the Grand Orient lodge).”

The freemasons are if not a Jewish spin-off, strongly influenced by Judaism.

Freemason jargon, symbolism, mythology drew heavily from Judaism, introduced by Marranos, who, contrary to open Jews, were not excluded from lodges.

Some quotes:

Jewish Tribune: “Masonry is based on Judaism.  Eliminate the teachings of Judaism from the Masonic ritual and what is left?”

Encyclopedia of Freemasonry: "Each Lodge is and must be a symbol of the Jewish temple; each Master in the Chair, a representative of the Jewish King; and every Mason a personification of the Jewish workman."

O.B. Good: "The influence of the Jewish Sanhedrin is today more powerful than ever in Freemasonry."

Meier Lau, Ashkenazi Chief Rabbi, Israel: "The principles of Freemasonry are all contained in the Book of Books of the Jewish people."

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“was it the tail wagging the dog or the reverse?”

Could very well be the tail wagging the dog. After all, that has been the situation since the assassination of JFK by Israel.

To wit:

On 2001-10-03, as reported by Kol Yisrael radio, Ariel Sharon told Shimon Peres:

“Every time we do something you tell me America will do this and will do that…I want to tell you something very clear: Don't worry about American pressure on Israel. We, the Jewish people, control America, and the Americans know it.”

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Imagine that you are playing Monopoly. All the players but one start with $1,500, but one player is the bank with an almost unlimited supply of money. Who is going to win?

In the words of Charles Dickens: "Control the cash box and you control the World" (A Christmas Carol).

And the words of Nathan Rothschild: "I care not who sits on the throne of the Empire on which the sun never sets, he who controls the money supply controls the Empire. And I control the money supply."

The Central Banking Cartel has it's generals and lieutenants, in the form of the Committee of 300 (the former shareholders of the East India Company; the "Empire within an Empire which gained all of the plunder from India, China etc), the WEF, Freemasons etc.

They control most of the world, including the UK, US, Israel, China and India. They used Britain to plunder and control the world, then the US. Under the new multipolar system their power base will be coordinated through a number of countries, with the main focus being China.

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