Welcome all, the mailbag answers are finally here, and it’s a big one. Many good, incisive questions, even more so than usual, so let’s get right to them. But remember, all subscribers paid and free can leave comments on this open post. 1. Ok, here is my question, which bothers me for a long time. So, to have a properly functional, integrated army, you need a long time to train not only soldiers but also a cooperations between units, etc. This is what is argued as the problem for the Ukrainian arm forces. But when I am thinking about the Soviet Army, during the WW II, surely there was not this luxury of time. I am missing something, somewhere. And I do appreciate that soldiers also learn via combat. Can you, please, explain? Maybe this is a non-question, but I would like to know why it would be a non-question. I do hope I make sense here. Thank you!
It may be a bit off topic, but I read tonight that the Girkin/Strelkovite scum bag shyster who calls himself Rolo/Rurik Slavskiy, a fake non-Russian patriot, is de facto shutting down his blog. It has clearly been a tremendous failure - I predicted this would happen months ago when he banned me from commenting on there.
Well, it is a very sad sad day I must say. What a shame. Z-ANON wins after all.
Thanks, I have been waiting , on edge , for my next hit of Simplicius. Now I can sit back and enjoy. Only thing better would be word that one of those British Challenger tanks ( or 10 ) got taken out over night.
Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
"Simplicius, could you please address how much support you think there is for Russia in the non-occupied oblasts, particularly the ones most people think could be likeliest to absorbed into Russia at some point in the future, and how important this could be or how linked it is to Russia's decisions to (or not to) launch a major offensive?"
Most people want to be on the side of the perceived winner. In the case of Ukraine, there are particularly bad consequences for anyone discovered or suspected to not be on the side of the Kiev regime.
Incredible analysis. I totally agree with your timeline by the way. This will be over no time soon. For your stated reasons, and one more. Biden and the EU scum created this fiasco. Russia is going to let them stew in it for a while. Even if Russia could do an expensive and bloody major offensive and win it in one stroke? Why? They thought they would bleed Russia. Well, what if Russia bleeds them? And keeps this running herpes sore of a fiasco in the news thru the 2024 election cycle? And ala Spanish Civil War, Russia is learning every new Western WunderWaffen that the loons send in at rather minimal expense. And every day gets eventual elections by the European sheep closer.
I disagree on one point. Biden will not step down before the end of his term. And there is a damn good chance that they run/win/prop that zombie up for another 4 years. Do NOT underestimate the ignorance of the American electorate.
I think effective conscript soldiers have to be rather young as they are more likely not to question commands. Older conscripts, who have developed critical thinking skills are less likely to follow a command that is an obvious suicide and might either surrender. or frag a ruthless superior. I think we are seeing some of that now on the Ukraine side.
There was also the allegations that the success of the Soviet troops was in part because the NKVD close behind, would shoot them, if they faltered, or that even being captured, would mean your death upon return to the Soviet union.
The old Soviet union treated the Ukrainians terribly, hence their willing embrace of the Nazi's.
There is a video showing the testimony of a Ukrainian woman, who viewed the advancing German army as their guardian angels, because they were rescued from trains leading to the Soviet Gulags.
As a veteran I deeply disagree with #1. Experience, leadership, discipline, bearing and esprit de corps are immeasurably important and take time, drill, intention and motivation to develop
If I can offer some numbers related to the question no. 1 ... .
When forming new units, a mixture of experienced/inexperienced is always desired. Manuals say that the ideal ratio should be 50/50 and if this is not possible, 30-40/50 is considered acceptable.
The now famous article, from the Kiev Independent, describing the situation of the 32nd Bde. , talks about 5 weeks of training for the soldiers. Many people would consider this to be not enough, but during war time, a period of training of 4-6 weeks is acceptable. Nobody expects you to become the next Rambo in this period or the next Napoleon, but this time is enough for you to learn the basics. Plus, at the lower level, you need to execute, not think. By lower level I mean everything lower than Brigade/Regiment. Thinking too much will often get you into trouble. The system is designed in such a way that everyone knows only his part and that is enough. Example: Company commander does not need to know where, how and when the Brigade plans to introduce it's Anti-Tank reserves. If it affects him, he will be told, if not, no.
This is one aspect when forming new units, the other, which I consider more important, is the training as a unit and the training of the Staff of that large unit. Again, manuals say, that a Brigade Staff needs a t least, 2-3 months of training and exercises, both on the map only and in the field (at least 1 or 2 every week), before you can start functioning as a unit. The higher you go, the longer it takes. Army Corps, 5-6 months recommended, minimum 4 months. And I think this is where Ukraine has problems. Brigade sized field exercises can't be done in the country, only on the map and I never heard of these types of exercises being done in Europe also.
Hi Simplicious, just on Q10, this might interest you.
I've noticed on previous occasions you have downplayed the "Bioweapon Labs" angle, not quite to "Russian disinfo" levels, but certainly not to see it as an important aspet of the SMO.
Russia doesn't use conscripts though. By law, conscripts are not allowed to serve outside of the country. All of the "conscripts" were actually Army reserves who had already done two years of training. Furthermore, the mobilization favored those with more experience and those who had actual combat experience. I'm told that the actual Russian "conscripts" had an average of 4-6 years experience.
You can find out about payments to demobilized disabled people here http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/34221 . Upon dismissal due to injury, a military man receives a one-time cash payment that starts at 1,000,000 rubles, and then receives a lifetime pension.
Perversely, one of the Biggest Assets on Russia's side is the West's Banking System/Financialization Illusion game.
Let's say you bought a $1 million U.S. Government or Corporate Bond 2 or 3 years ago, paying, say 2-3%. This yields $20,000 to 30,000 in interest. BUT you can get 5-6% interest on the same (type) of debt instrument today, meaning $500,000 will earn you the same $20-30,000. So, at the money trading/bond table, you have taken losses of 30-50% on the value of what you paid for the bond only a few years ago. Thes facts are hidden; disclosed solely in the fine print on page 666 of Western Financial institutions. Trillions of unrecognized, undisclosed losses.
Media is TOTALLY SILENT on the fact that Bond losses, Public and Private, are now approaching the $5 Trillion plus range in Western Countries and rising. Central Banks haven't seriously started retracting the Trillions of counterfeited money during Covid, while the U.S. is so hooked on the Meth of Debt, that Interest, alone, now exceeds the U.S. Defense Budget.
U.S. public Debt, new and revolving, along with Private Sector Bonds, requires selling $5 to $10 Trillion of Promises to Pay, for instant cash, to someone over the next 2 years.
Ukraine is going to be told to get a Luger and 1 bullet and hand it to Zelenski.
You're answer to #10 brings up an interesting blindspot.
The US is trying to coerce the Russian people to turn on the motherland and sell out to foreign interests by making them suffer through sanctions, SWIFT, international cancelling and shaming, etc. It's like the state department has never even heard of Russian history, much less studied it. Bizarre.
You probably already know this, but your readers might not. The most hated Soviet isn't Stalin, it's Gorbachev. The Russian people dislike Gorbachev more than Stalin because he imploded the country and put Yeltsin in a position to sell it off to the west. (Yeltsin isn't on the list because he wasn't important until after the Soviet Union collapsed) And even though Stalin is the 2nd most hated Soviet, he is also the 2nd most loved because he repelled the nazis. Yuri Gagarin is most loved, of course.
It may be a bit off topic, but I read tonight that the Girkin/Strelkovite scum bag shyster who calls himself Rolo/Rurik Slavskiy, a fake non-Russian patriot, is de facto shutting down his blog. It has clearly been a tremendous failure - I predicted this would happen months ago when he banned me from commenting on there.
Well, it is a very sad sad day I must say. What a shame. Z-ANON wins after all.
Thanks, I have been waiting , on edge , for my next hit of Simplicius. Now I can sit back and enjoy. Only thing better would be word that one of those British Challenger tanks ( or 10 ) got taken out over night.
"Simplicius, could you please address how much support you think there is for Russia in the non-occupied oblasts, particularly the ones most people think could be likeliest to absorbed into Russia at some point in the future, and how important this could be or how linked it is to Russia's decisions to (or not to) launch a major offensive?"
Most people want to be on the side of the perceived winner. In the case of Ukraine, there are particularly bad consequences for anyone discovered or suspected to not be on the side of the Kiev regime.
Incredible analysis. I totally agree with your timeline by the way. This will be over no time soon. For your stated reasons, and one more. Biden and the EU scum created this fiasco. Russia is going to let them stew in it for a while. Even if Russia could do an expensive and bloody major offensive and win it in one stroke? Why? They thought they would bleed Russia. Well, what if Russia bleeds them? And keeps this running herpes sore of a fiasco in the news thru the 2024 election cycle? And ala Spanish Civil War, Russia is learning every new Western WunderWaffen that the loons send in at rather minimal expense. And every day gets eventual elections by the European sheep closer.
I disagree on one point. Biden will not step down before the end of his term. And there is a damn good chance that they run/win/prop that zombie up for another 4 years. Do NOT underestimate the ignorance of the American electorate.
I think effective conscript soldiers have to be rather young as they are more likely not to question commands. Older conscripts, who have developed critical thinking skills are less likely to follow a command that is an obvious suicide and might either surrender. or frag a ruthless superior. I think we are seeing some of that now on the Ukraine side.
There was also the allegations that the success of the Soviet troops was in part because the NKVD close behind, would shoot them, if they faltered, or that even being captured, would mean your death upon return to the Soviet union.
The old Soviet union treated the Ukrainians terribly, hence their willing embrace of the Nazi's.
There is a video showing the testimony of a Ukrainian woman, who viewed the advancing German army as their guardian angels, because they were rescued from trains leading to the Soviet Gulags.
Thanks for answering my question (# 14)!
I will watch the videos you linked and read the rest of the article tomorrow.
As a veteran I deeply disagree with #1. Experience, leadership, discipline, bearing and esprit de corps are immeasurably important and take time, drill, intention and motivation to develop
Zelensky can't become unhinged if he is dead. So what's the delay?
If I can offer some numbers related to the question no. 1 ... .
When forming new units, a mixture of experienced/inexperienced is always desired. Manuals say that the ideal ratio should be 50/50 and if this is not possible, 30-40/50 is considered acceptable.
The now famous article, from the Kiev Independent, describing the situation of the 32nd Bde. , talks about 5 weeks of training for the soldiers. Many people would consider this to be not enough, but during war time, a period of training of 4-6 weeks is acceptable. Nobody expects you to become the next Rambo in this period or the next Napoleon, but this time is enough for you to learn the basics. Plus, at the lower level, you need to execute, not think. By lower level I mean everything lower than Brigade/Regiment. Thinking too much will often get you into trouble. The system is designed in such a way that everyone knows only his part and that is enough. Example: Company commander does not need to know where, how and when the Brigade plans to introduce it's Anti-Tank reserves. If it affects him, he will be told, if not, no.
This is one aspect when forming new units, the other, which I consider more important, is the training as a unit and the training of the Staff of that large unit. Again, manuals say, that a Brigade Staff needs a t least, 2-3 months of training and exercises, both on the map only and in the field (at least 1 or 2 every week), before you can start functioning as a unit. The higher you go, the longer it takes. Army Corps, 5-6 months recommended, minimum 4 months. And I think this is where Ukraine has problems. Brigade sized field exercises can't be done in the country, only on the map and I never heard of these types of exercises being done in Europe also.
One possible question that has not been addressed:
When will Russia declare end of SMO and announce the next phase -- a total war against Nazi and US- controlled Ukraine?
Bombing and closing all airports, destruction of all key transportation and energy infrastructure, etc.
General Winter is approaching -- a perfect timing would be early October -- to finally put an end to this agony.....
Many thanks in advance.
Hi Simplicious, just on Q10, this might interest you.
I've noticed on previous occasions you have downplayed the "Bioweapon Labs" angle, not quite to "Russian disinfo" levels, but certainly not to see it as an important aspet of the SMO.
But it's worth bearing in mind that Russian decision-makers would certainly have been made aware of this from the DPRK: https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/07/23/the-schnacke-affidavit-u-s-admission-of-offensive-germ-warfare-capability-during-the-korean-war/
They would also be very well aware of the Chemical WMD uses in Syria by western-allied terrorist groups.
How in all hades did you manage to create that script to cover "Who are you?" lollol. Never seen anything like it!!
Russia doesn't use conscripts though. By law, conscripts are not allowed to serve outside of the country. All of the "conscripts" were actually Army reserves who had already done two years of training. Furthermore, the mobilization favored those with more experience and those who had actual combat experience. I'm told that the actual Russian "conscripts" had an average of 4-6 years experience.
You can find out about payments to demobilized disabled people here http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/34221 . Upon dismissal due to injury, a military man receives a one-time cash payment that starts at 1,000,000 rubles, and then receives a lifetime pension.
Perversely, one of the Biggest Assets on Russia's side is the West's Banking System/Financialization Illusion game.
Let's say you bought a $1 million U.S. Government or Corporate Bond 2 or 3 years ago, paying, say 2-3%. This yields $20,000 to 30,000 in interest. BUT you can get 5-6% interest on the same (type) of debt instrument today, meaning $500,000 will earn you the same $20-30,000. So, at the money trading/bond table, you have taken losses of 30-50% on the value of what you paid for the bond only a few years ago. Thes facts are hidden; disclosed solely in the fine print on page 666 of Western Financial institutions. Trillions of unrecognized, undisclosed losses.
Media is TOTALLY SILENT on the fact that Bond losses, Public and Private, are now approaching the $5 Trillion plus range in Western Countries and rising. Central Banks haven't seriously started retracting the Trillions of counterfeited money during Covid, while the U.S. is so hooked on the Meth of Debt, that Interest, alone, now exceeds the U.S. Defense Budget.
U.S. public Debt, new and revolving, along with Private Sector Bonds, requires selling $5 to $10 Trillion of Promises to Pay, for instant cash, to someone over the next 2 years.
Ukraine is going to be told to get a Luger and 1 bullet and hand it to Zelenski.
You're answer to #10 brings up an interesting blindspot.
The US is trying to coerce the Russian people to turn on the motherland and sell out to foreign interests by making them suffer through sanctions, SWIFT, international cancelling and shaming, etc. It's like the state department has never even heard of Russian history, much less studied it. Bizarre.
You probably already know this, but your readers might not. The most hated Soviet isn't Stalin, it's Gorbachev. The Russian people dislike Gorbachev more than Stalin because he imploded the country and put Yeltsin in a position to sell it off to the west. (Yeltsin isn't on the list because he wasn't important until after the Soviet Union collapsed) And even though Stalin is the 2nd most hated Soviet, he is also the 2nd most loved because he repelled the nazis. Yuri Gagarin is most loved, of course.
https://www.rt.com/russia/542570-gorbachov-low-ratings-poll/
There is a better, more detailed, article on this, but I can't find it at the moment.